The Future
Trends in Media, Technology and Business
Joe Igoe
VP/CTO WGBH
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WGBH Public Television Quality Workshop
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“The knowledge of yourself will preserve you from vanity.”
--Miguel de Cervantes, Spanish novelist, poet and playwright
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“In God we trust; the rest of you bring data.”
--Mark Baynes, vice president and global chief marketing officer at Kellogg, as quoted by the New York Times
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The Future
Philosophy
 Predictions
 Implications

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The Future
Philosophy
 Predictions
 Implications

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Philosophy

Factors to consider:
 People
 Power
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Philosophy

Factors to consider:
 People
 Power
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Philosophy: People

Genetics
 Genetic clock has stopped
 We are essentially born the same as humans were
hundreds if not thousands of years ago
 So what does this have to do with media,
technology and business?
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Philosophy: People

Genetically baked-in needs and wants:
 Ego / fame
Music
 Attention / admiration
Storytelling
 Family
Curiosity
 Power
Love
 Safety
Growth and
 Community
achievement / status
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Philosophy: People

The fundamentals are timeless
 Twitter and Facebook are about community, ego,

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etc.
There are many new ways to do the same old things
We can look to the past to predict the future
In 100 years, people will be essentially the same as
they are today
Same needs and wants but many new ways to fulfill
them
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Philosophy: People

Old Habits Die Hard
 The habits you have at 35 are slow to change
 80% of those over 45 watch TV live
 56% for those under 45
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Philosophy

Factors to consider:
 People
 Power
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Philosophy: Producer Power

Economics: Monopoly Power
 If you’ve got what people want, you have power
 Content is power
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Philosophy: Consumer Power

Economics: Money is Power
 Consumers willing to part with
money have power
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Philosophy: Power

In the long run, power moves to the ends of the
chain:
 Producers
 Consumers

If you’re in the middle and you’re not adding
value, your role will diminish over time
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The Future
Philosophy
 Predictions
 Implications

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Predictions: OTA Spectrum
Bad situation
 FCC report forecasts shortage by ~2013
 Nearly 500% increase in data usage per line
in just over a year
 Clearwire users consume 7GB/month

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Predictions: OTA Spectrum

“Shortage” is a function of price
 Higher prices for spectrum will raise
prices for users (i.e. anyone with a
smartphone, data card, etc.)
 Some users will reduce usage or drop
out
 New equilibrium achieved
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Predictions: OTA Spectrum

Many, many hurdles to reclaiming TV spectrum
Minimal chance of significant movement for several
years
Major sticking points around revenue splits
Concerns regarding must-carry constitutionality
Repacking TV stations is difficult and does very
little
 DoD / Government slow to release spectrum

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Predictions: OTA Spectrum
Spectrum auctions will happen in a few years
 Very conservative estimate of $100B revenue

 Some estimate Qualcomm’s national 6 MHz spectrum
now worth $2B
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Predictions: OTA Spectrum

No “magic” technology fix
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Predictions: OTA Spectrum
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Predictions: OTA Spectrum

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End of new all-you-can-eat mobile data plans by 2012
End of existing all-you-can-eat plans by 2014
Heavy promotion of home cell sites by all carriers
More cell sites in general
 Better re-use of existing frequencies
Possibility of tiered data services
 Business class, economy class
Increased availability of mobile-optimized pages
 Smaller image files, lower resolution streams

Much more use of WiFi to mobiles
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Predictions: OTA Spectrum

White Spaces
Unlicensed use of “in-between” space in TV
spectrum
Not trackable
No consequences
Open spectrum is a moving target
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Predictions: OTA Spectrum

White Spaces
How about some
unlicensed cars on
the roads?
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Predictions: Wired Bandwidth Crisis
There is no wired bandwidth crisis
 US is 22nd globally w/ average 3.8Mb/s
 There are very, very few services that can
provide YOU 3.8Mb/s in reality
 Many can opt for more bandwidth and don’t

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Predictions: Wired Bandwidth Crisis

There are only economic hurdles here*

*but we still need universal access including
lifeline service
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Predictions: 3D in the Home
You will buy one
 You will not use it

“Showroom feature”
LASIK: $2k to take glasses off
3DTV: $2k to put glasses back
on
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Predictions: 3D in the Home

Serious issues
10-15% of population can’t handle / tolerate
Kids eye spacing incompatible
Production methodology different
 Dual production expensive
Active glasses are expensive
Passive glasses require new TV technology not ready
yet
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Predictions: 3D in the Home

Serious issues
ATSC not ready yet
HDMI 1.4 late to the game
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Predictions: 3D in the Home

CTAM/Nielsen survey showed those “very likely
to buy” were actually LESS likely to buy after a
demo
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Predictions: 3D Gaming

Consider this:
Xbox/PS/Wii 3D package deal $1,000
 Console, 42” 3D TV, 4 controllers, 4
glasses, 4 3D games
Gaming usage model is more focused
activity than TV viewing
Still allows for interactions between
players in-room or online
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Predictions: 3D Gaming

PC Gaming
User position is relatively
known and fixed
 Predictable distance, along
center axis, one user
 Can eliminate glasses today
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Predictions: Distribution

Broadcast Networks

 Few-to-many delivery
 Many to many
 Wide variety, wide audience due to
 No packaging / linearization
few choices
 No control over schedule (pre-DVR)
 “Appointment TV”

Internet
Cable channels
required – item by item selection
 Complete control over time
 Far lower barriers to entry
 Old monetization models breaking
and evolving
 More-to-many
 Narrower variety, narrower
audiences
 Still limited control over schedule
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Predictions: Distribution - FM

FM will be around for 20+ years
 Essentially 100% of cars include FM tuner
 Cheap, reliable
 All FM band is roughly equal to 3 TV frequencies but
would require moving countless licensees
 HD Radio is DOA and still rides above an FM analog
carrier anyway
 Mobile DTV could offer replacement, but momentum
behind FM is tremendous
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Predictions: Distribution – Mobile DTV
Big in Japan!
 You’ll consider it when your data plan gets
capped
 Carriers will be increasingly likely to order in
handsets from manufacturers

Preserve bandwidth for lucrative data customers

Qualcomm MediaFLO failed/failing due to lack
of free / premium model to build user habits
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT

Over-the-top
Google TV, Apple TV, Netflix, etc.
Success varies by service
 Content is power
 Success of platform based on relationships with content providers
 Google – weaker relationships (but armed with cash)
 Networks pulled plug on feeding Google TV almost immediately
 Apple – strong relationships w/ content
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 Netflix – all about content relationships
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT

Over-the-top
This isn’t going to make content free
 Good content is expensive
 Costs (and profits for some) need to be collected
 Producers will restrict content to channels that either
provide direct payments or maintain advertising with
program
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT

Over-the-top
Technology is essentially trivial
Barriers to entry are getting lower
 Netflix and others have already opened content
owners to the idea
 Initial rates have been negotiated
 Much easier for competitors to follow along
 RedBox just announced they’re entering the
market
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT

Over-the-top
Streaming services (legit and otherwise) are
numerous
 ~25% of streaming is YouTube
 ~25% is from other sites in the top 25
 ~50% is from sites in the #26-50 bracket
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT
Producer
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Network
Station/
Affiliate
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Consumer
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT
Syndicator /
Distributor
Producer
Network
Station/
Affiliate
Cable
Network
OTT
Aggregator
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Consumer
Cable/Sat
/Telco
Wireless
Carrier
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT
Syndicator /
Distributor
Producer
Network
Station/
Affiliate
Cable
Network
OTT
Aggregator
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Consumer
Cable/Sat
/Telco
Wireless
Carrier
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT
Syndicator /
Distributor
Producer
Network
Station/
Affiliate
Cable
Network
OTT
Aggregator
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Consumer
Cable/Sat
/Telco
Wireless
Carrier
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT
Syndicator /
Distributor
Producer
Network
Station/
Affiliate
Cable
Network
OTT
Aggregator
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Consumer
Cable/Sat
/Telco
Wireless
Carrier
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT
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Predictions: Distribution – OTT

Over-the-top
Will achieve mainstream success when it doesn’t look
and feel like OTT, but like TV
But cable/telco companies have some monopoly
power as well
 Even with OTT, you need them to deliver data
 Expect a major shift in your bill toward a high data cost
and lower programming cost as programming
alternatives emerge
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Predictions: Generation Y
Lots of hype about how Gen Y consumes media
 Despite some piercings, Gen Y are people like
the rest of us

They will get married
They will have kids
They will be tired
They will sit in front of the TV with their kids
 …and yes, they will have secondary devices as well
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Predictions: Generation Y

Gen Y parents will still be focused on their kids
just like every other generation in recent history
 Family time will still matter

Behavior in young adulthood is not a great
predictor of later habits
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Predictions: The Living Room
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Predictions: The Living Room
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Predictions: The Living Room
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Predictions: The Living Room
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Predictions: The Living Room
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The Future
Philosophy
 Predictions
 Implications

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Implications: Relationship w/ Public
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Implications: Relationship w/ Public
Consumer relationship evolving from being with
network to being with individual content
 DVRs can reduce awareness of content
associations with networks
 OTT delivery will only accelerate this change

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Implications: Funding

Declining and not getting better soon enough

“The United States already has one of the lowest
levels of federal funding of public media in the
developed world -- at just $1.43 per capita; Canada
spends $22 per capita; England spends $80; people in
Finland and Denmark spend much more.”
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Implications for Public Media

Cable/satellite must-carry legislation for public
television
 Critical to relinquishing broadcast TV spectrum
 Although constitutionality has been and will be
challenged
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Implications for Public Media

What worked isn’t working anymore
 Be open to alternatives
 Use technology to lower production costs while
maintaining quality
 Go to the listeners and viewers on any platform
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Implications for Public Media

Continue to focus on producing good content
 Great content is timeless
 Storytelling is timeless
 Trusted reporting is timeless
○ Content may be cheap, but integrity isn’t
 Be sure to express our value to consumers
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The Future
Philosophy
 Predictions
 Implications
 Miscellaneous

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Interlace
Interlace is a 1930’s era hack
 CRT TVs are the only place where interlace
made any sense
 TV will be less of our audience as we move on
 Start preparing now

 Produce Progressive
 Deliver Interlace if you must
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720p v. 1080i
720p: 1280x720x59.94 = 55.2 Mp/s
 1080i: 1920x1080x29.97 = 62.1 Mp/s
 720p is 88.9% of the pixel rate of 1080i without
the hassles and damage of interlacing

 Easier to scale
 Easier to compress
 More future-proof
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Disclaimers
Difficult to predict anything with certainty beyond a year or two
 Much of this is my opinion and nothing more
 Not necessarily the opinions of the QG, WGBH, PBS, etc….

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Discussion
Joe Igoe
CTO, WGBH
joe_igoe@wgbh.org
QG@pbs.org
pbsconnect.org/qualitygroup
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