How can 10 billion people live sustainably on Earth ?
Humankind Security
Clean Power from Deserts
for a World with 10 billion People
DESERTEC + Supergrid
.
Dr. Gerhard Knies
DESERTEC Foundation, Supervisory Board,
Chair of Board of Trustees
Co-ordinator of TREC
gerhard.knies@DESERTEC.org
1
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
The 2 most important events in history of humankind:
(1) - 250,000 years: appearance of homo sapiens sapiens
(2) 1985: No. of homo sapiens exceeds carrying capacity of planet Earth
Era of over-using Earth
Organised balance
„anthropocene
Era of free expansion
1985
10
bn
Who
should go ?
Or
what else ?
5 bn
people
5 bn
Carrying cap. Earth 5 bn
3
2
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
bn
Energy from DESERTS – for upgrading carrying capacity of Mother Earth
In 6 hours deserts receive as much energy from sun
as mankind uses in 1 Year
Economic power potential: 3000 PWh/year (1PWh= 1000 TWh)
290
144 PWh/y
126
~1100
700
125
95
World 2050:
total
60 PWh/y
Scen.: 50% from deserts:
30 PWh/y
collectors for
12,000 GW-el
~200
11
~200
from 500 x 500 km²
= 1% of useful deserts
distributed
over “10,000” sites
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Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
3
SUPERGRID = Low-loss long-distance transmission by HVDC
Loss = dE/E ~ 1/U², HV, AC  DC
Cables, (under ground, submarine)
High capacity, AC impossible
HVAC versus HVDC transmission on OH- lines
1500
Required number of lines in parallel to transmit 7000 MW
Losses over distance
800 kV ac
© ABB Power Technologies
Power Systems DC - 2 -
500 kV dc
Power in MW
400 kV ac
DC
1000
AC
100% loss
over ~100 km
500
800 kV dc
Cost of 5 GW Overhead Link
0
4500
Investment [M€]
3500
100
200
300
Distance in km
Three 400 kV ac cables
Two 320 kV dc cables
AC
4000
.
0
Rectifier+inv
erter cost
3000
2500
2000
DC
1500
1000
500
0
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
Distance [km]
4
1150 kV HVAC
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
± 800 kV HVDC
400
500
Solar Thermal Power also at Night! Andasol 1:
Spain, molten salt heat storage tank day+night operation
Also called Concentrating Solar Power = CSP
Clean power on demand
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Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
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DESERTEC – EU-MENA
case study for 1/7 of world pop: 12,000  1,600 GW solar collector capacity
Studies by DLR for
EUMENA region
MED-CSP TRANS-CSP
for German gov‘t
Power
transmitted
from Africa
cheaper than
generated in
Spain
6
CLUB OF ROME
White Paper 2009
www.desertec.org
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
Desert power (CSP) from Africa for compensation
of European RE fluctuations
Hourly time series modelling of power supply in the TRANS-CSP scenario
Germany, Winter Week 2050
90
70
70
60
60
[GW]
80
50
Power
Power [GW]
Germany, Summer Week 2050
80
40
30
50
40
30
20
20
10
10
0
20.8.
Cogen (fossil)
7
Pump Storage
21.8.
22.8.
23.8.
24.8.
25.8.
26.8.
0
19.11.
20.11.
21.11.
22.11.
23.11.
24.11.
Cogen Fossil
PV, Wind
Bio., Geo., Hydro.
PV, Wind
Bio., Geo., Hydro.
Import CSP
Pump Storage
Peaking Plants (fossil) RES Surplus
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
Peaking Plants (fossil) Surplus
25.11.
Import CSP
Decarbonization in EUMENA,
compatible with climate goal ∆T<2°
CO2-Emissions in Mt/y
4000
Avoided
3500
Import Solar
3000
Photovoltaics
Wind
2500
-81%
2000
Hydropower
Wave / Tidal
1500
Biomass
1000
CSP Plants
500
Oil / Gas
Coal
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
Year
8
Geothermal
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
Nuclear
Transmission: from deserts to the people
5,000 solar GigaWatt transmission capac. from deserts
 HVDC super grid to a world with 10 billion people
3000 km
10%
loss
Within 3000 km from deserts:
more than
9
90% of world pop
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
DESERTEC Concept: Global Solar Plan for 2°limit
10 Important demand regions for DESERTEC
Frames include good deserts
urban population expected for year 2025
EUMENA
p
10
Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
End planetary population growth 
Clean power from deserts to Least Developed Countries
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Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
Conclusion
It will be much much cheaper /more humane
to create a save world for 10 billion people,
than
to operate an unsave world with 10 billion
people.
Homo economicus/sapiens – go and do it!
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Climate-parl 7/3/2013, gerhard.knies@.desertec.org
Thank you
Gerhard Knies
DESERTEC
(Foundation DF and University Network DUN)
Gerhard,knies@desertec.org