How Well would your Community
Respond to a Major Flash Flood?
By Hector Guerrero
Chair of Texas Flash Flood Coalition (TFFC)
WCM, NWS San Angelo, TX,
and
Roy Sedwick, Co-Chair of TFFC,
Texas Division of Emergency Management
Workshop
San Antonio, Texas
Photo By: Larry Kolvoord – American Statesman
Texas Flash Flood Coalition
9/24/2010
204* Flood Related
Fatalities
(1996 – September 24,
2010)
Thirteen
fatalities in 2010.
Eight occurred
in Texas’ Flash
Flood Alley
DFW
AUS
Del Rio
*Does not include flash
flood related fatalities
caused by tropical
cyclones along the coast
SAT
Texas Flash Flood Coalition
Education
and
Awareness
Team
Research
Team
Technology
Team
Warning and
Communication
Team
Commuter
Preparedness
Team
www.texasflashflood.org
How Well Would Your Community
Respond to a Major Flash Flood?
• Near Cumberland River
• 18 to 20 in. near Nashville
• Killed 26 people. 11 were in
Nashville
May 1-2, 2010
How Well a Community Responds to a
Flash Flood Depends on the Following:
• How well we
– Forecast heavy rainfall 0-24hrs plus (Quantitative
Precipitation Forecasts)
– Monitor rainfall rates/amounts and understand
hydrology in rural and urban areas
–
Know where and when most people
drown
– Understand why people drown
How Well a Community Responds to a
Flash Flood Depends on the Following:
• How well we
– Educate our fellow citizens
– Communicate observations, forecasts and warnings
– Exploit current and future technologies and research to
save lives from flash flooding
– Learn from past flash floods in both our large urban and
rural communities- (Albert Pike Flood and Nashville
Flood)
How Well a Community Responds
Depends on:
• How well
we
educate
our
fellow
Texans
www.texasflashflood.org
www.texasflashflood.org
Flash Flood Education
• Texas Flood Plains Management Association is
developing a flash flood educational
curriculum that has been established in
Oklahoma to the State of Texas.
Turn Around…Don’t Drown ®
Fort Worth---”17 fatalities since 1986,
and 9 fatalities since 1996
Only one fatality has occurred since
2004, when Fort Worth began promoting
the National Weather Service’s “Turn
Around Don’t Drown” campaign.
…it appears that targeting this program
toward school children and young
drivers may do more than any warning
system to educate drivers to the danger
of flooded roadways.
San Antonio SAFE Program
www.safloodsafe.com
How Well a Community Responds to
a Flash Flood Depends on:
• How accurately we forecast heavy rainfall 0-24hrs
(Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts)
It did rain again!
But How Much?
Accurate Rainfall Forecast
May 1-2, 2010
Difference Between Observed (MPE)
Precip. and HPC Forecast (QPF) 48 Hours
Ending May 3, 2010 12UTC (inches)
How Accurate is QPF
How Well a Community
Responds to a Flash Flood
Depends on:
• How well we monitor rainfall rates/amounts,
and understand the hydrology in rural and
urban areas
Monitoring Rainfall & River Gages
Mason 3NNE
Count
Rain
(inches)
May 24 2010 9:55PM
28.89
0.05
May 24 2010 9:40PM
28.84
0.78
May 24 2010 9:25PM
28.06
0.15
May 24 2010 8:40PM
27.91
0.28
May 24 2010 8:25PM
27.63
0.26
May 24 2010 8:10PM
27.37
0.40
May 24 2010 7:55PM
26.97
0.31
May 24 2010 7:40PM
26.66
0.14
May 24 2010 7:25PM
26.52
0.26
May 24 2010 7:10PM
26.26
0.48
May 24 2010 6:55PM
25.78
0.65
May 24 2010 6:40PM
25.13
1.19
May 24 2010 6:25PM
23.94
0.57
May 24 2010 6:10PM
23.37
0.02
May 24 2010 5:40PM
23.35
0.01
May 24 2010 5:25PM
23.34
0.04
May 24 2010 5:10PM
23.30
1.27
May 24 2010 4:25PM
22.03
0.15
May 24 2010 4:10PM
21.88
0.02
Date - Time
Courtesy of LCRA
15 min
3.15” in
1:15 hr
15 min
45 min
How Well a Community Responds
to a Flash Flood Depends on:
• Knowing where most people drown (low
water crossings)
Flood Fatalities by County
1959-2008 (NCDC)
Dr. Sharif, UTSA
http://www.tnris.org/FloodplainMapping
Click on Texas Low Water Crossings
Low Water Crossings in Texas
Melinda Luna, P.E., CFM
Team Lead, Floodplain Mapping Services
TWDB/TNRIS, Phone: 512-463-9625 (Direct Line)
Including Low Water Crossings
in Flash Flood Warnings
San Antonio SAFE Program
www.safloodsafe.com
How Well a Community Responds
to a Flash Flood Depends on:
• How well we understand why people drown
Why People Drown
Research findings
• Weather information requirements
of each user community are highly
specialized
– Different
– Languages
– Capabilities
– Economic status
• Studies of behavior may
tell us more than research
on perceptions
Dr. Eve Gruntfest, Social Science Woven
Into Meteorology (SSWIM)
Why People Drown
We need more than
accurate
information to
save lives
We need to
understand why
people behave as
they do
Dr. Eve Gruntfest, Social Science Woven
Into Meteorology (SSWIM), Univ. of
Oklahoma
How Well a Community
Responds Depends on:
• How effectively the NWS and its partners can
communicate observations, forecasts and
warning plans
NWS Decision Support
•
•
•
•
Conference Call
On Site Support
NWSchat
iNWS
•
•
•
•
•
Emails
Text Messages
Phone Calls
Amateur Radio
WEBEOC
Commercial Mobile Alerting
System (CMAS)
• Coming Soon
• Video on CMAS
• http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVhX_Sb
VxnY
- Tsunami Warnings
- Tornado Warnings
- Flash Flood Warnings
- Extreme Wind Warnings
- Hurricane and Typhoon Warnings
- Blizzard Warnings
- Ice Storm Warnings
- Lake Effect Snow Warnings
- Dust Storm Warnings
City of New Braunfels
received funding and
have installed warning
sirens along the
Guadalupe River
Improving Flash Flood Warnings
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS
ISSUED A
•FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR…
BEXAR COUNTY…
* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT
•FLASH FLOOD EMERGENCY FOR BEXAR COUNTY
•DANGEROUS FLOODING WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WARNED
AREA DUE TO A FLASH FLOODING ALONG PIPER’S CREEK.
•AT 501 PM CDT…BEXAR COUNTY EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
OFFICIALS REPORTED 50 HIGH WATER RESCUES IN SAN ANTONIO
AT PIPERS CREEK AND CULEBRA ROAD AND AT GRISSOM AND
TIMBER HILL. THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING FLASH FLOODING
WILL CONTINUE OVER CENTRAL BEXAR COUNTY.
•LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING AREA INCLUDE TIMBERWOOD
PARK...THE DOMINION...SHAVANO PARK...SEA WORLD...LEON
VALLEY AND LEON SPRINGS.
Late Start
• Schools start late or close early
when heavy rain and significant
flash flooding is a threat
• This has occurred in the Houston
and Austin surrounding areas this
year!
San Antonio SAFE Program
www.safloodsafe.com
Using Technology to Save
Lives
Flood Warning System
in Austin
How Well a Community Responds
to a Flash Flood Depends on:
www.centraltexashub.org
Situational Awareness
for Flash Flooding
David R. Maidment
Director, Center for Research in Water
Resources
Cockrell School of Engineering
University of Texas at Austin
• How well we exploit
current and future
technologies and
research to save
lives from flash
flooding
20 March Storm,
24-hour Precip at 5:30AM
20 March Storm, Flow at 5:30AM
Hydrologic Information
System for North Texas
John A. McEnery, Ph.D., P.E., CFM
University of Texas at Arlington
Water Web Service Jamboree
Austin, TX: March 20, 2012
COMET Pilot Project
• Collaboration of…
– University of Texas at Arlington
– National Weather Service - West Gulf River
Forecast Center (NWS – Fort Worth, TX)
• Funded through…
– University Corporation for Atmospheric Research
(UCAR) COMET Partners Program with support
from the National Science Foundation
Broader Impacts – Next Steps
• Applications in development for North Central Texas Council of
Governments (NCTCOG) Region
• The partners and informational sources include
–
–
–
–
–
Tarrant Regional Water District
NCTCOG
Municipal Governments
US Army Corps of Engineers
US Geological Survey
• Primary goal:
– Provide a uniform source of situational awareness for flood hazards
– Combining:
• Precipitation values
• ALERT data and stream gauge measurements
• Mapped low water crossings
How Well a Community
Responds to a Flash Flood
Depends on:
• How well we learn from past significant flash
floods in our urban and rural communities(Albert Pike Flood and Nashville Flood)
Learning From Others?
• Little Missouri
River rose 20 ft in
just a few hrs.
• 2-3 inches/hour
rural, flashy
terrain
• Killed around 20
campers between
130 and 2 AM
June 11, 2010
Learning From Others?
How Well a Community Responds
to a Flash Flood Depends on:
• How well we
– Forecast heavy rainfall 0-24hrs plus (Quantitative
Precipitation Forecasts)
– Monitor rainfall rates/amounts, and understand
hydrology in rural and urban areas
Know where and when most people
drown
–Understand why people drown
–
How Well a Community Responds
to a Flash Flood Depends on:
• How well we
– Educate our fellow citizens
– Communicate observations, forecasts and warnings
– Exploit current and future technologies and research to
save lives from flash flooding
– Learn from past flash floods in both our large urban and
rural communities- (Albert Pike Flood and Nashville
Flood)
Hector.guerrero@noaa.gov
325-944-9445