BY:
Grace Ownbey
Motivation


Helps energy companies save $$$
To help consumers see if they are paying more
money for the same amount of energy.
Research Questions

How does climate effect trade?
 How does temperature effect total energy consumption?

Hypothesis Temperature accounts for 70% of total energy
consumption.
Methods and Data


Annual Average temperature, Cooling degree days,
Heating degree days and Sum of degree days(NC State
climate office)
Set of total energy consumption data with smaller sub
sets of data (State energy Data System) from NC
○ ESTCP- Electricity total consumption
RFTCP- Residual fuel oil total consumption,
○ NGRCP-Natural gas total consumption
○

Years 1960-2009

Compared the sets of data by finding the correlation
between them and there detrended values
Background Information
Cooling Degree days-CDD
Heating Degree days-HDD
15000
Fitted total
fitted ESTCP kkwh
HDD
CDD
SADD
av temp
62
61
10000
60
59
5000
58
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
0
57
56
-5000
55
-10000
54
Key




HDD= heating degree days
CDD= cooling degree days
SADD= sum of annual degree days
AV temp= average temperature
 Fitted Total= normalized Energy
consumption
 Fitted ESTCP KKWH= Electricity Total
Consumption
Compared Data
Correlation
62
Electricity total consumption
.51
60
Residual fuel oil total
consumption
Natural gas total consumption
-.20
58
Temperature
Temperature
temp
56
.29
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
54
Cooling degree days
Electricity total consumption
.38
Residual fuel oil total
consumption
Natural gas total consumption
-.19
.21
DEGREE DAYS
6000
4000
2000
HDD
-.13
CDD
2008
2005
2002
1999
1996
1993
1990
1987
1984
1981
1978
1975
1972
.06
1969
Residual fuel oil total
consumption
Natural gas total consumption
0
1966
-.32
1963
Electricity total consumption
1960
Heating degree days
SADD
20
Sum of annual degree days
15
-.14
Residual fuel oil total
consumption
Natural gas total consumption
-.04
-.03
RFTCP
5
NGRCP
0
Linear ESTCP
1960
1964
1968
1972
1976
1980
1984
1988
1992
1996
2000
2004
2008
Electricity total consumption
ESTCP
10
70000
Normalized total for the
last 30 years
Temperature
.06
Cooling degree days
.14
Heating degree days
.06
Sum of degree days
.13
60000
50000
Last 20 years
40000
Last 30 years
Temperature
30000
Normalized total for the
last 20 years
Cooling degree
days
20000
Temperature
-.44
Cooling degree days
.09
Heating degree days
.59
Sum of degree days
.71
Heating degree
days
Sum of degree
days
10000
2008
2004
2000
1996
1992
1988
1984
1980
1976
1972
1968
1964
1960
0
Discussion

Temperature effects energy consumption by
about 50%
 The research rejected my hypothesized 70%
but supported the facet that it does have some
affect

Didn’t account for other ways of heating and
power such as…





propane
solar power
wood burning
wind power
If theses were taken into account how much of
a difference would it make?
Future Research
How does temperature effect agricultural trade?
 How do storms effect trade?
 How does the effect of temperature on energy trade
effect the price of energy?
 How do natural disasters effect agricultural trade?
 How do hurricanes effect the economy of the places
they hit?
 How does climate effect energy trade?
 How does climate effect energy consumption?

Approach

Total energy consumption and
temperature correlated over 50, 30, and
then 20 years
 There seemed to be more of a pattern
during the last 30 years and the correlations
for the most part increased
 Since the 30 year period increased the
correlations, I correlated the 20 year period
Results


The research rejected my hypothesized 70% but
supported the facet that it does have some affect
Temperature effects energy consumption by about
50%
15000
Fitted total
fitted ESTCP kkwh
HDD
CDD
SADD
av temp
Last 20 years
Last 30 years
4000
2000
10000
0
5000
0
-2000
-4000
-6000
-5000
-8000
-10000
-10000