Climate Change, Issues and Implications, Mr. Bal Krishna Prasain

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Climate Change: Issues and Implications
Bal Krishna Prasai
1 Mangsir 2071
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Presentation Outline
 Context
 Impacts of CC in Development
 Adaptation Process
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Context
 Weather: It describes the state of the air at a particular place and time-whether
it is warm or cold, wet or dry, and how cloudy or windy it is. In other words,
weather is what conditions of the atmosphere are over a short period of time.
 Climate: The average and statistics of variations of weather in a geographical
region. The averaging period is typically several decades.
 Climate Change:
 The Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) defines climate change
as: “a change in the state of the climate that can be identified (e.g., by using
statistical tests) by changes in the mean and/or the variability of its properties, and
that persists for an extended period, typically decades or longer. Climate change
may be due to natural internal processes or external forcing, or to persistent
anthropogenic changes in the composition of the atmosphere or in land use”.
 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC)
defines climate change as “a change of climate which is attributed directly or
indirectly to human activity that alters the composition of the global atmosphere
and which is in addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable
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time periods”.
Cont…
 Global average surface air temperature has increased, especially since about
1950.
 The average temperature of the world has increased by 0.74 degree Celsius over
the last 100 years (1906-2005).
 2005 and 1998 were the warmest two years in the instrumental global surface air
temperature record since 1850. Eleven of the last 12 years (1995 to 2006)-1996
exception-rank among the 12 warmest years on record since 1850.
 Climate models calculate that the global mean surface temperature could rise by
about 1 to 4.5 centigrade by 2100.
 Average global precipitation has also increased by 0.5-1% annually. It is
decreasing in equatorial region and increasing in higher latitude. Precipitation has
increased over land at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, especially
during the cold season. Decrease in precipitation occurred in steps after the 1960s
over the subtropics and the tropics from Africa to Indonesia.
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Trends in Global Average Surface Temperature
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Projected Changes in Global Temperature
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Precipitation Changes
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Cont…
 Nepal is the fourth most vulnerable country in terms of climate
risks and 30th in terms of water-induced disaster. Climate change is
posing additional threat to Nepal.
 Nepal's average annual mean temperature has increased by 0.060C
between 1977 and 2000 and these increases are more pronounced at
higher altitudes and in winter.
 There is a general increase in temperature extremes with warmer
days and nights becoming more frequent and cooler days and nights
less frequent.
 A study conducted by Nepal Country Vulnerability Study Team in
2009 has projected that Nepal’s mean annual temperature may rise
by 1.4 degree Celsius by 2030, 2.8 degree Celsius by 2060 and by
4.7 degree Celsius by 2090.
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All Nepal Temperature Trend
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Cont…
 For precipitation, the trends are less certain but there is evidence of
increasing occurrence of intense rainfall events, and an increase in
flood days and generally more variable river flows.
 An OECD study (2003) reveals that there will be no change in
precipitation in western Nepal and up to 5-10 % increase in
precipitation in eastern Nepal. During the summer months, its
projection depict that an increase in precipitation for the whole
country in the range of 15-20%.
 In terms of spatial distribution, the study findings project an
increase in monsoon rainfall in eastern and central Nepal as
compared to western Nepal.
 It also projects an increase in monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall,
an increase in the intensity of rainfall, and a decrease in winter
precipitation.
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11
Cont…

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Impacts of Climate Change
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Impacts on Water Resources
 Water is the most impacted sector by climate change. Water




impacts are key for all sectors.
IPCC predicts that by 2050, freshwater availability in central,
south, east and south east Asia, particularly in large river basins,
is projected to decrease.
Effects of climate change on water resources could yield
manifold implications either due to too much and/or too little
water (NAPA 2010).
Due to rise in temperature, Himalayan region is noticeably
impacted by climate change. The reported impact is rapid
reduction in glaciers.
Climate change will increase the frequency and intensity of
water induced disasters.
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Cont…
NAPA report reveals that:
 Climate-induced water stresses directly affects agricultural
productivity, malnutrition, human health and sanitation.
 Too much water impacts human settlements, infrastructure and
agriculture land.
 Climate induced events have direct impacts on renewable energy
sources, examples:
 Changes in river flow will have direct implications for microhydro projects.
 An increase in number of cloudy days and changes in the form
of precipitation (from snowfall to hailstones) adversely affects
solar power potential in the mountain.
 Increased incidences of forest fire threatens availability of fuel
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woods.
Cont…
 Nepal’s high altitude glaciers are thinning (30 cm-1 m) and
retreating at an alarming rate (10-20m annually), faster than the
world average, resulting in an increase in the number and size of
glacial lakes and the threat of catastrophic Glacial Lake Outburst
Floods (GLOFs). Lake Imja Tsho is an example of a glacier lake
which was non-existent in 1960 and now covers nearly one
square kilometre. The Imja glacier that feeds the lake has
retreated 75 m between 2001 and 2006.
 The new inventory identified 3,808 glaciers with a total area of
4212 sq.km and 1,466 glacial lakes in Nepal (ICIMOD 2011).
The rapid reduction in glaciers has profound future implication
for downstream water resources.
 There are about 21 potentially dangerous glacial lakes identified
by ICIMOD, among which 6 are most critical
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Glacier Melting
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Imja Glacial Lake
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Impacts on Agriculture
 Nepal’s agriculture is facing risks due to
changes in the reliability of stream flow, a
more intense and potentially erratic monsoon
rainfall and flooding. About 64% of cultivated
areas are fully dependent on monsoon rainfall.
 Decline in rainfall from November to April
adversely affects the winter and spring crops.
 Rice yields are sensitive to climatic conditions
and may fall in western region and it may
threaten overall food security. A study carried
out by B.R.Regmi and A. Adhikary in 2007
reveals that climate change is posing threat to
food security due to loss of some local land
races and crops.
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Cont…
 Initial National Communication,2004 states that with the increase of
temperature beyond 4 degree Celsius, the yield of Terai rice is projected to
decrease. The effect of temperature on rice crops in the hills is little more
severe than in the Terai. But in mountain region it is better, but rice is grown
negligibly there.
 The yield of wheat is projected to fall down with the rise in temperature in
Terai. The effect of temperature on wheat yield in the hills is less than in
Terai. There is insignificant decline of wheat yield in mountain environment
with rise in temperature.
 The rise in temperature will affect yield of maize crops in Terai more than
wheat and rice crops. It affects less in the hills than in Terai but increases
production of maize in mountain areas.
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Impact on Livestock
Livestock production is highly sensitive to climate change.
Rising temperature increases lignifications of plant tissues
and reduces the digestibility (Minson, 1990), reducing meat
and milk production in range-based livestock production
system.
Increased heat stress is another pathway affecting the
livestock production. The increased heat alters heat exchange
between animal and environment affecting the feed intake and
metabolism (SCA, 1990; Mader and Davis, 2004). Such
stresses will affect growth and productivity of the animals. But,
effects vary from species to species.
Water buffaloes need frequent bath for heat exchange.
Drying of ponds due to drought can deprive the buffaloes for
taking baths affecting adversely the productivity of the
buffaloes.
Similarly, the increased energy deficits may decrease cow
fertility, fitness, and longevity (King et al., 2006). Increased
temperature and humidity will increase the risks of mortality
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and morbidity among the livestock and poultry.
Impacts on Forests and Biodiversity
 IPCC predicts that approximately 20 to 30% of plant and
animal species assessed so far are likely to be at
increased risk of extinction if increases in global average
temperature exceed 1.5 to 2.5 degree Celsius.
 Increased temperature and rainfall variability have
resulted into shifts in agro-ecological zones, prolonged
dry spells, and higher incidences of pests and diseases.
 New alien and invasive species are emerging and their
habitat is spreading at a fast rate.
 Migration of the forest towards the higher altitude,
change in their composition, and extinction of species.
 Extreme climatic conditions have led to increased
incidence of fire in recent years affecting more than
50,000 people and loss of large areas of productive
forest land. These changes lead to species and habitat
loss.
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Cont…

Flowering and fruiting in some plants have been
experienced.

Weeds and insects found in low land and hot
climate are now shifting to high altitudes.

A study carried out under Sagun Program of Care
Nepal in 2009 on CC Impacts on livelihoods of
poor
and
Vulnerable
Communities
and
Biodiversity Conservation: A case study in Banke,
Bardia, Dhading, and Rasua Districts of Nepal
reveals that if atmospheric C02 concentration is
doubled, it will reduce Nepal’s forest types from
15 to 12.
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Cont…
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Cont…
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Impact on Health

Climate change has both direct and indirect impact on health.

Drought, heat waves, and flash floods have direct impacts on health.

Climate-induced economic dislocation, conflict, crop failure, and
associated malnutrition and hunger, and the spread and aggravated
intensity of infectious diseases due to changing environmental
conditions have indirect impacts on health.

The infectious diseases include the vector-borne diseases such as
malaria, kala-azar, dengue, Japanese enchepalities and water related
diseases such as diarrhea.

IPCC IV Assessment Report, 2007 reveals that endemic morbidity and
mortality due to diarrheal disease associated with floods and droughts
are expected to rise in East, South and South East Asia due to
projected changes in the hydrological cycle.
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Adaptation Initiatives
 The government of Nepal prepared the NAPA in 2010 to address its urgent
and immediate adaptation needs through a consultative and country-driven
process.
 NAPA is a strategic tool to access climatic vulnerability, and symmetrically
respond to climate change adaptation issues by developing appropriate
adaptation measures.
 Out of about 250 adaptation options proposed by the Thematic Working
Groups (TWG), nine integrated projects have been identified as the urgent and
immediate national adaptation priority.
 The government of Nepal has approved the National Framework on Local
Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA Framework) in 2011 that helps to integrate
climate adaptation and resilience aspects in local and national plans.
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Cont…
 The government of Nepal has approved the National Framework on Local
Adaptation Plans for Action (LAPA Framework) in 2011 that helps to integrate
climate adaptation and resilience aspects in local and national plans.
 Agriculture, forestry, health, water and sanitation, watersheds and microfinance have been identified as the main entry points. But it states that
education, local infrastructure, disasters and other environment-related areas
may also be taken as entry points.
 Since 2013, the government is implementing 70 Local Adaptation Plan for
Actions in 69 village development committees and one municipality of 14
districts in the Mid and Far Western regions of Nepal with support from Nepal
Climate Support Programme: Building Climate Resilience in Nepal Project
funded by UNDP/DFID/EU
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The steps involved in preparing and implementing LAPA are shown in Figure.
LAPA Process
The LAPA Framework consists of the following 7 steps for formulation and
implementation. They are:
 Climate change sensitization
 Climate vulnerability and adaptation assessment
 Prioritization of adaptation options
 LAPA formulation
 LAPA integration in planning process
 LAPA implementation
 LAPA progress assessment
LAPA Steps
STEP 1:
SENSITISATION
{Carried out in
all steps}
STEP 2:
VULNERABILITY
& ADAPTATION
ASSESSMENT
STEP 7:
ASSESSING
PROGRESS
STEP 3:
PRIORITISATION
OF ADAPTATION
OPTIONS
{Carried out in
all steps}
STEP 6:
IMPLEMENTING
ADAPTATION
PLAN
STEP 4:
ADAPTATION PLAN
DEVELOPMENT
STEP 5:
INTEGRATING THE
ADAPTATION
PLAN
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Thank You
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