NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)
and ROMS Applications in NOS Operational
Forecast Systems
Aijun Zhang1, Mark Vincent2, Frank Aikman3
Eugene Wei3 , Richard A. Schmalz, Jr.3 , Lyon Lanerolle3
1
Center for Operational Oceanographic Products and Services (CO-OPS),
National Ocean Service/NOAA
2 Oceanic and Atmospheric Research/NOAA
3 Coast Survey Development Laboratory, National Ocean Service/NOAA
April 6, 2010
Outline
• What and how NOAA does coastal
operational forecast systems
• Some examples of ROMS applications
• Challenges and wish list
NOS Oceanographic Forecast Systems
Requirements
 Primary Mission:Support of safe & efficient
navigation
• Water levels for under-keel clearance
• Currents for right-of-way, maneuverability
 Emergency response (provide circulation, T,
S etc. fundamental information)
• HAZMAT
• Search & Rescue
• Homeland Security
 For environmentally sound management of
the coastal zone
• Ecosystem applications
• Marine geospatial applications
SST
Salinity
Cook Inlet
Great Lakes
Columbia River
(Mar. 2006)
New York Harbor
(Feb. 2003)
San Francisco
St. Johns River
(Oct. 2005)
Galveston Bay
(Jun. 2004)
Tampa
Bay
Gulf of Mexico
Delaware Bay
Chesapeake Bay
(Aug. 2001)
New NOS OFS Strategy
• Global/Basin Model from Navy and NWS/NOAA
(e.g. NCOM, HYCOM, RTOFS, etc.)
• Shelf models to fill gaps between global/basin
model and coastal/estuarine model (Gulf of
Mexico Shelf, West Coast Shelf, East Coast Shelf,
etc.) , provide better boundary conditions for
coastal/Estuarine models
• Coastal/Estuarine model nested with Shelf models
FY 2010 – 2015 Development and Implementation Schedule for Operational Forecast Systems
Fiscal Year of
Operational
Delivery
Water Body of new
Operational Model
Water Body of
Retrofitted
Operational
Model
Hydrodynamic
Model Selected
Tampa Bay
ROMS
Delaware Bay
ROMS
FY10
FY11
FY12
ROMS
5 Great Lakes
POM (GLERL)
Columbia River
SELFE
Northern Gulf of Mexico
(New Orleans to Mobile)
FVCOM
Gulf of Mexico Region
(Sabine Pass to New
Orleans)
ROMS or FVCOM
San Francisco
ROMS or FVCOM
Narragansett Bay/Long
Island Sound
FY13
Chesapeake Bay
Galveston Bay
ROMS or FVCOM
New York/New
Jersey
FVCOM
3
8
11
3
10
13
1
14
15
18
18
20
20
22
22
ROMS or FVCOM
ROMS or FVCOM
Huron Erie Corridor
(GLERL) or Prince
William Sound
FVCOM
Eastern GOM-WFS
West Coast Shelf
Total # of
Operational
Models
0
Cook Inlet
0
5 Great Lakes
FY15
# of Operational
Models on NOAA
High Performance
Computers (HPC)
FVCOM
Puget Sound
St. Johns River
FY14
# of
Operational
Models on
NOS
Computers
FVCOM (GLERL)
ROMS or FVCOM
ROMS or FVCOM
Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework (COMF)
COMF is a set of standards and common tools
to develop and operate NOS OFS. It is
standardized for any model and any location
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
PURPOSE: Efficient R&D, O&M for NOS OFS
Easy Data Handling & Maintenance
Single System for all Locations
Single standard tool for Graphics and Web Pages
Standard skill assessment and evaluation Tools
Standard NOS Model products to Users
Various Models Allowed
ADCIRC, ECOM, EFDC, ELCIRC, FVCOM, MECCA, POM,
ROMS, SELFE
NOS selected ROMS and FVCOM as the core ocean models
Individual
Model systems
NOS Coastal Ocean Modeling
Framework (COMF)
REAL-TIME
DATA
INGEST
QA/QC
(COMF)
Data Tank on CCS:
•Atmospheric Forcing
• Coastal Boundary Conditions
• Riverine Fresh Water Inputs
OPERATIONAL
MODELS
(COMF)
on CCS
Products and archives
Linux Server
in CO-OPS
FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
(water level, water temp, currents, & salinity)
PRODUCTS
(web pages and digital pt. & gridded data)
FOR USERS
tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
QA/QC
(CORMS) 24 x 7
NOS Operational Forecast System Evaluation
(Model Skill Assessment)


Objective
- Measure the performance of model simulations (including tidal
simulation, hindcast, nowcast, and forecast) by comparing with
observations
- All models should be assessed and pass the NOS skill
assessment standards before transferring to operation
Functions
– Data acquisition and process (observations and model outputs)
• Time interval conversion and Gap-filling
• Concatenation of model outputs
• Filtering
• Tidal harmonic analysis and prediction
• Extracting extremes/events and slack waters
– Compute statistical variables
– Generate skill assessment score tables
– Harmonic constants comparison
Continuous Operational Real-Time Monitoring System (CORMS)
CORMS is the primary system to perform 24 x 7 real-time QA/QC on
all real-time data, systems, and products in the CO-OPS domain
World-Class Supercomputing AT NCEP
•
IBM Power6 p575
– 69.7 Teraflops Linpack
• #36 Top 500 Nov 2008
– 156 Power6 32-way Nodes
– 4,992 processors @ 4.7GHz
– 19,712 gigabytes memory
– 170 terabytes of disk space
– 100 terabyte tape archive
– Two identical systems locate in
different locations. One is
production, the other is backup.
– NOAA’s atmosphere operational
forecast systems (e.g. NAM, GFS,
etc)
– NOAA’s ocean forecast systems
(e.g. RTOFS, HYCOM, GLOFS,
CBOFS, DBOFS, TBOFS, etc.)
NOS OFS PRODUCT FLOW CHART
http://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov
Forcing Data on CCS
CORMS
• Real-Time Observations
• Model reanalysis and
forecast products
NCEP Central Computer
System (CCS – IBM Super
Computer)
Sftp using
secure key
Server “ofsprod” at CO-OPS
• sftp access model outputs on CCS
• Produce graphic products.
• Produce NOS OFS web pages on CO-OPS web.
• Archive Operational Products (NAS)
All NOS OFS
NWS Web Operations
Center (WOC) and
Distributed Brokered
Networking (DBNet)
Public
THREDDS Data server
Opendap / webservices
NOS OFS Nowcast/Forecast Schedule
6 hour nowcast
00z
06z (now)
12z
18z
NOS OFS Forcing
OBC
Surface Forcing
River Forcing
Tides from ADCIRC
Subtidal WL from ETSS
adjusted by real-time
observed SWL
RTMA
USGS Real-time
river observations
(discharges, T, S)
NAM and GFS as
backup
Nowcast
Climatologic daily
mean as backup
T & S from NCOM
adjusted by real-time
observations
Tides from ADCIRC
+Subtidal WL from ETSS
Forecast
T & S from NCOM
NAM
GFS as backup
NWS river forecast
Products Or
Persistence from
previous nowcast
cycle
Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast
System (CBOFS)
• 4 cycles per day
• 48 hours forecasts of Water levels, current, T
&S
Dimensions: 291 x 332 x 20
Res. 50 m – 5 km
Bathymetry from NOS
sounding
Delaware Bay Operational Forecast
System (DBOFS)
• 4 cycles per day
• 48 hours forecasts of Water levels,
current, T & S
Dimensions: 119 x 732 x 10
Res. 100 m – 3 km
Bathymetry from NOS
sounding
Tampa Bay Operational Forecast
System (TBOFS)
•48-hour forecasts of Water levels,
current, T & S (4 cycles per day)
Dimensions: 176 x 290 x 11
Res. 100 m – 1.2 km
Bathymetry from NOS
sounding
Water Level forecasts at CBBT and Kiptopeke from CBOFS
Synoptic Hindcast : water level validation
Observations from NOS/CO-OPS monitoring stations
Synoptic Hindcast : currents validation
Observations from NOS/CO-OPS/CMIST monitoring stations
Synoptic Hindcast :
T error summary
• Left panel show RMSE and Right
panel show mean error
• Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m) and
bottom
• Surface, 15-feet similar & largest
errors at bottom
• Horizontally, errors mainly along axis
of the Bay
• Most mean errors in [-1 oC, +1 oC]
range and RMSE in [0 oC, 2 oC]
• CBOFS2 excessively cool at surface
and excessively warm at bottom
Synoptic Hindcast :
S error summary
• Left panel show RMSE error and
Right panel show mean error
• Look at surface, 15-feet (4.6m)
and bottom
• Surface, 15-feet similar & largest
errors at bottom
• Horizontally, errors mainly along
axis of the Bay
• Most mean errors in [-2 , +3 ]
range and RMSE in [0 , 4 ] in
PSU
• CBOFS2 excessively salty at
surface and excessively fresh at
bottom
Water Level time series from TBOFS.
Current time series at Sunshine Skyway Bridge and Old Port Tampa from TBOFS.
Challenges and Wish List
• Reliable and stable operational version of ROMS (community model).
Reliability > 99%
• Perfect Restart
• Wetting and Drying (test in Cook Inlet)
• Data Assimilation (e.g. for shelf model)
• Composite grids and grid refinement (shelf model + Estuary model)
• Coupling with Wave, Ecological and biological modules (hydrodynamic
+ eco.)
• Better vertical mixing scheme in coastal shallow waters (vertical
stratification)
• Future Collaborations with ROMS Community in transitioning research
to operation.
Thanks !!
Questions ?
Data Resources used for NOS OFS
Data tank
on CCS
CCS – NCEP Central Computer System
CORMS – Continuous Operational Real-Time
Monitoring System
COMF – Coastal Ocean Modeling Framework
Real-Time Observations
NAM – North American Mesoscale model
Water Levels, River Flow
GFS – Global Forecast System
Temperature, Salinity
Meteorological variables
RTMA – Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis
RUC – Rapid Update Cycle
NDFD – National Digital Forecsat Database
Model reanalysis and
forecast products
ETSS – Extra-Tropical Storm Surge Model
NAM, GFS, RTMA, RUC, NDFD
ADCIRC – ADvanced CIRculation model
ETSS, NCOM, RTOFS
RTOFS – Real-Time Ocean Forecast System
ADCIRC tide constituents
WOA
NCOM – Navy Coastal Ocean Model
WOA – World Ocean Atlas
ROMS – Regional Ocean Modeling System