Conditional Climatology Tools
AvnFPS 3.2
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Contributors
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Contributors
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Mike Graf (NWS Headquarters)
Jerry Griffin (NWS Training Center)
David Hotz (WFO Morristown, TN)
Todd Lericos (WFO Caribou)
Cammye Sims (WFO San Antonio)
Mark Struthworf (WFO Salt Lake City)
Jeff Tongue (WFO New York City)
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Objectives
• Describe Conditional Climatology
– Definition
– Benefits/Limitations
• Discuss new AvnFPS 3.2 climatology tools
– Wind Rose
– CIG/VSBY Distributions
– CIG/VSBY Trends
• Discuss current forecast methods/limitations
• Adding Conditional Climatology to the Forecast Toolkit
• Interpret and apply the output
– Case studies
– Local case studies
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What is Conditional
Climatology?
• A distribution of variables now and in the
future based on one or more given
conditions.
• Examples:
– Pattern Recognition
– Conceptual Models
– Local Rules of Thumb
– Forecaster Experience
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Role of Conditional Climatology
in Aviation Forecasting
• 1960’s
– Conditional Climatology Tables - USAF
• 1970’s to present
– Numerical models
– MOS
• 2000’s
– Integration of CC back into the aviation
forecast process
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Benefits of Conditional
Climatology?
• Guidance on event duration, intensity and
trends
• Limits over forecasting of rare events
• Increases forecaster confidence
• Better results than just using persistence
forecasting or NWP/MOS guidance
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Limitations of Conditional
Climatology
• Can not be used alone!
• Does not discriminate physical processes
• May not be useful in extreme or rare
weather events
• Not fool proof
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Wind Rose Tool
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Applied Wind Rose
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CIG/VSBY Distribution Tool
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Why are we here?
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Why are we here?
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Why are we here?
SOO
Intern
Lead
General
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Why are we here?
The SOO is killing me
with all this Training
SOO
Intern
Lead
General
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CIG/VSBY Trend Tool
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How Do You Forecast
Ceiling Height and Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast
Ceiling Height and Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast
Ceiling Height and Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast
Ceiling Height and Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast
Ceiling Height and Visibility????
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How Do You Forecast
Ceiling Height and Visibility????
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What Tools Do you Use?
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What Tools Do you Use?
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Current Observations
Satellite
MOS
Soundings / BUFKIT
Model Data
Local Studies
Advection
Convection
Persistence
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What Tools Do you Use?
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Current Observations
Satellite
MOS
Soundings / BUFKIT
Model Data
Local Studies
Advection
Convection
Persistence
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Using NWP Model Data to forecast
clouds
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Models
• Relative Humidity???
• Model Clouds???
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Model Soundings?
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BUFKIT – RH and Clouds
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Relative Humidity = Clouds?
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Adding “Model” Clouds
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RH with respect to ICE or Water?
RH With Respect to Water
RH With Respect to Ice
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RH Time Section
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Model Clouds and Bases
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How good are NWP
Models at predicting:
• Moisture?
• It’s Horizontal and Vertical Distribution?
• Cloud Ceilings?
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Model Output Statistics!
• Good idea.
• Removes biases.
• Adds Climatology.
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MAV MOS
• Is the “Weather” in Caribou the same as State
College PA or New York City? Is the Weather in
Atlanta the same as San Antonio?
• Regional Equations are used for Ceiling and
Visibility
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Summer (Apr-Sept)
Winter (Oct-Mar)
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MAV MOS
• Model “Run time” plus 3 Hour Observation
is Critical (03Z, 09Z, 15Z or 21Z)
• Use the Ceiling and Visibility Category
Probabilities.
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MOS - Ceiling and
Visibility Category
Probabilities.
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NGM MOS
• Look at NGM Synoptic Pattern
• Period of Record used for equation
Development is Extensive
• 02Z and 14Z Observations are critical
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We need more
• Rules of thumb?
• “in this situation, the cloud base “usually”
remains IFR until late morning.”
• CLIMATOLOGY!!!
• “Conditional” Climatology
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Example
18Z TAF
John F. Kennedy
International Airport
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17Z METAR
• METAR KJFK 311651Z 14009KT 10SM
BKN007 BKN250 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2
SLP226 T01940161
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Situation
• SE Flow Prevails
• When and How Low does the Ceiling and
Visibility Go??
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12Z NAM-eta
(Fcst Hr = 05)
Valid 17Z
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15Z RUC
(Fcst Hr = 02)
Valid 17Z
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12Z NAM-eta
(Fcst Hr = 14)
Valid 02Z
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15Z RUC
(Fcst Hr = 11)
Valid 02Z
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GFS MOS
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NGM MOS
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Current TAF
• KJFK 311509Z 311512 14009KT P6SM BKN007
TEMPO 1617 SCT007
• FM1700 14009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT080 SCT140
• FM0200 VRB04KT 1SM BR SCT004 SCT040
• FM0600 VRB03KT 3/4SM BR BKN004
TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002=
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Joint Distribution
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(default)
May-Jun
16-18Z
SE Wind
600-1000’
Un-restricted
Visibility
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Ceiling Distribution
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(default)
May-Jun
16-18Z
SE Wind
600-1000’
Un-restricted
Visibility
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Visibility Distribution
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(default)
May-Jun
16-18Z
SE Wind
600-1000’
Un-restricted
Visibility
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Ceiling Distribution
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Apr-mid Jun
13-22Z
S-E Wind
500-900’
Un-restricted
Visibility
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Visibility Distribution
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Apr-mid Jun
13-22Z
S-E Wind
500-900’
Un-restricted
Visibility
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What Would You Forecast?
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What Was Forecast?
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FTUS41 KOKX 311700
TAFJFK
TAF
KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007
TEMPO 1923 SCT007
FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005
FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004
TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002
FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008
FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=
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TAF based on Climatology?
TAF
KJFK 311728Z 311818 14010KT P6SM BKN007
FM2200 14008KT 3SM BR OVC004
FM0000 14008KT 1/2SM FG VV002
……
ACTUAL TAF (no CC)
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KJFK 311728Z 311818 14009KT P6SM BKN007
TEMPO 1923 SCT007
FM0200 14006KT 3SM BR BKN005
FM0600 VRB03KT 1SM BR OVC004
TEMPO 0811 1/2SM FG VV002
FM1400 18005KT 5SM HZ BKN008
FM1700 21009KT P6SM SCT010 SCT050=
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KJFK 311751Z 15007KT 10SM BKN007 19/16 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP225 T01890161 10194 20172 56004=
KJFK 311851Z 15007KT 10SM VCFG BKN007 19/16 A3019 RMK AO2 SLP222 VIS S 2 1/2 T01890161=
KJFK 311951Z 15009KT 8SM BKN007 19/16 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP217 T01890161=
KJFK 312051Z 16011KT 8SM OVC007 18/16 A3016 RMK AO2 SLP213 T01830156 58013=
KJFK 312151Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC005 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SLP203 T01780161=
KJFK 312155Z 15011KT 1/8SM BR OVC003 18/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6=
KJFK 312214Z 15011KT 1/2SM BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 6 SFC VIS E-SE 2 1/2 $=
KJFK 312251Z 15007KT 1/2SM R04R/3500VP6000FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1 1/2 SLP204 T01720161=
KJFK 312351Z 15009KT 1/2SM R04R/2000V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP204 T01670161
10194 20167 56008=
KJFK 010051Z 15006KT 1/2SM R04R/2200V3500FT BR OVC003 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4 SLP203 T01670161=
KJFK 010151Z 19009KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2800FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP205 T01670161 $=
KJFK 010232Z 18005KT 1/4SM R04R/1800V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3014 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 $=
KJFK 010238Z 19006KT 1/8SM R04R/2000V2200FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $=
KJFK 010251Z 18007KT 1/8SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP203 T01670161 58001
$=
KJFK 010324Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V1800FT FG VV001 17/16 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $=
KJFK 010351Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/1400V1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP201 T01670167 $=
KJFK 010451Z 17005KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT -DZ FG VV001 17/17 A3013 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 DZB35 SLP203 P0000
T01720167 401940167 $=
KJFK 010551Z 14006KT 0SM R04R/1600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3012 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 DZE50 SLP199 P0000 60000
T01720167 10172 20167 58005 $=
KJFK 010651Z 15005KT 0SM R04R/1200V1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3010 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP193 T01720167 $=
KJFK 010751Z 18005KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 17/17 A3008 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP187 T01720167 $=
KJFK 010851Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 56017
$=
KJFK 010911Z 17007KT 0SM R04R/1600V2000FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $=
KJFK 010925Z 18007KT 0SM R04R/2000V3500FT FG VV001 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $=
KJFK 010951Z 20007KT 0SM R04R/2200V2600FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/2 SLP182 T01720167 $=
KJFK 011005Z 20006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV002 17/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $=
KJFK 011014Z 21006KT 0SM R04R/1800V2000FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 $=
KJFK 011051Z 21004KT 0SM R04R/1400FT FG VV001 18/17 A3007 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP183 T01780172 $=
KJFK 011151Z 22006KT 0SM R04R/1000FT FG VV001 18/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/8 SLP180 T01830178 10183 20167
58002 $=
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KJFK 011251Z 20005KT 0SM R04R/1000V2000FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4 SLP179 T01890183=
KJFK 011303Z 19006KT 0SM R04R/1400V2400FT FG VV001 19/18 A3006 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 1/4=
KJFK 011340Z 21007KT 0SM R04R/2000V5500FT BR OVC002 19/18 A3005 RMK AO2 SFC VIS 3/4=
Best times to use
Conditional Climatology
• During “steady state” quiet weather situations.
• Fog/Stratus events
– Radiation Fog
– Advection Fog
– Marine Stratus
• Prevailing Wind
• Determining Onset and Dissipation Times.
• Seasonal Refresher and New Forecasters
orientation.
• New TAF sites, where 30-years of data exists
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What You Need to Do
• Develop local Case Studies with your
Airports and TAFs to learn how best to
integrate the NEW tools into your TAF’s
and your forecast operations.
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Summary
• Conditional Climatology improves the TAF
process through increased forecaster
confidence.
• Must correctly integrate Conditional
Climatology with Observations, NWP,
MOS and other techniques.
• Conditional Climatology can improve TAF
quality and service.
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AVNFPS 3.2 Web Pages
• Main Page:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/AvnFPS3.2.html
• Supplemental Instructions:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/pgb/AvnFPS/3.2/CS-DH-3.2.doc
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Pre-View - AVNFPS 3.3
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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3
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Pre-View AVNFPS 3.3
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Thank You!
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References
• BUFKIT: http://www.wdtb.noaa.gov/tools/BUFKIT/
• MOS:
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/synop/products.shtml
• MODCV: https://notus2.afccc.af.mil/
• MODELS: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/
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References
• Old Forecast Tools (Ouija Board, Crystal
Ball, Dart Board and the “Magic” 8 Ball)
available at Wal-Mart, Target and other
fine stores!
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