Status and difficulties for running 2D re-analysis at 5.5

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Status and difficulties for
running 2D re-analyses at 5.5km
over Europe
E. Bazile & C. Soci
special thanks to SMHI: T. Landelius & P. Dahlgren
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
OUTLINE
 Deliverables
 MESCAN over Europe: domain, parameters,
constraint, downscaling issues
 Observations available
 Preliminary results
 Future plans
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Deliverables
#
D2.5 New MESAN-SAFRAN downscaling system (month 36): MESCAN OK
• Available in the official cycle of ARPEGE/ALADIN/AROME/HARMONIE
system cy38t1 under a logical switch LMESCAN.
• Precipitation analysis is also available (more details in C. Soci talk’s)
#
D2.6 Report describing the new system in D2.5 (month 40  August 2013)
#
D2.11 Evaluation of MESCAN system in particular for snow (month 42):
• Started with M. Lafaysse (CEN, Grenoble): MESCAN analysis drives
CROCUS (sophisticated snow scheme) and the snow depth is compared to
observations over the French Alps and Pyrenées
• Over Europe, SURFEX is forced by MESCAN-Europe at 5.5km  snow
cover, snow depth, snow albedo (comparison with SAF-land product) and
surface fluxes (latent and sensible) compared at observation site : SMOSREX,
Sodankyla, Cabauw (M. Coustau and E. Martin)
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN over Europe: domain, downscaling …
3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km,
60 Levels over Europe (SMHI)
Downscaling
Dx ~ 5.5 km over Europe 1080x1000
More observations
2D analysis at Dx ~5.5 km
By adding details with topography and more
observations, the quality of the analysis should
improve …
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN over Europe: domain, downscaling …
3D-Var Re-analysis at 22 km,
60 Levels over Europe (SMHI)
Downscaling
Dx ~ 5.5 km over Europe 1080x1000
More observations
2D analysis MESCAN at Dx ~5.5 km
Hirlam 2 Grib files 22km:
- T2m, Wind Ps, RR_liq (124Mb)
- Hu2m, Radiative fluxes, RR_sol (13Mb)
Software : GL( SMHI) (~5mn/file)
FA file for input to MESCAN with T2m,
Hu2m, Wind, RR_liq, RR_sol, LW, SW :
200Mb
Observations T2m, Hu2m (1.3Mb) and
RR24h from rain gauge (1.4Mb)
Output FA file : 160Mb every 6h for T2m
and Hu2m, RR24 at 6UTC. (~14mn for
T2m/Hu2m and ~7mn for RR analysis)
1 month at 5.5km for all Europe: 54Gb and 32h on the HPC platform
at ECMWF so for 4 years ~ 2months and 2.5Tb
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Observation Network for Precipitation
Potentially available in ECA&D and useful for a
daily re-analysis but :
• RR1: Precipitation amount unknown interval
• RR2: Precipitation amount morning previous day
06,07,08,09 until morning today (shifted 1 day back
by ECA staff)
• RR3: Precipitation amount morning today 06,07,08
until morning next day
• RR4: Sum of 12-hourly precipitation of
observations at 06 and 18 UT (2 values). Date of 18
UT
• RR5: Precipitation amount morning today 07:30
CET until morning next day
•RR6: Precipitation amount 18-18 UT (sum of 4
values)
•RR7: Precipitation amount 0 - 0 UT
•RR8: Sum of 12-hourly precipitation of observations
at 18 UT today and 6 UT tomorrow (2 values)
• RR9:Precipitation amount morning today 06:00 UTC
until morning next day
• RR10: Precipitation amount within 00-24, 07-07 or
08-08
Without 1-4-6-7-10
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Observation Network for Precipitation
Observation available and useful for re-analysis
for the 15th december 2009 from ECA&D.
MF provides RR24 only until 2005
Observation available and useful for reanalysis from the MF database used in
NWP ~2500 obs (1300 over France)
A merge is necessary between the two
database but it is not an easy task.For
preliminary test over Europe the MF
database is used.
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Observation Network for Precipitation
Observation available and useful for re-analysis
for the 15th december 2009 from ECA&D.
MF provides RR24 only until 2005
Observation available and useful for reanalysis from the MF database used in
NWP ~2500 obs (1300 over France)
A merge is necessary between the two
database, but hopefully thanks to Tomas
Landelius, the merge has been done and
the next MESCAN-Europe will use exactly
the same observations file as MESAN.
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN-Europe Monthly mean RR (mm/day)
HIRLAM FG DEC2009
MESCAN DEC2009
ANALYSIS-FG DEC2009
Suspicious spot of precipitation due to some
weaknesses in the quality control ?
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN-Europe Monthly mean RR (mm/day)
MESCAN JAN2010
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN JUNE 2010
MESCAN-EUROPE vs MESCAN-FR
for the precipitation analysis
Heidke Skill Score Domain France
Dec2009-Jan2010 and June 2010
MESCAN-Europe : 5.5 km, ~1300 obs
over France, guess from HIRLAM 24H at
06UTC. Available for Dec2009, Jan 2010
and June 2010
MESCAN-FR: 5.5km, ~1700 obs over
France, Oct2009 June 2010, guess from
NWP ALADIN.
MESCAN-FR-ALL: 5.5km, ~4300 obs
over France, Oct2009 June 2010, guess
from NWP ALADIN
HIRLAM Guess at 5.5 km
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Extreme event:flash flood
Var 15th June 2010 (RR24h mm)
OBS
MAX=397mm
MESCAN-FR
MAX=264mm
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
HIRLAM guess
RR24h
MAX=67mm
MESCAN-EUROPE
MAX=231mm
MESCAN-Europe T2m
HIRLAM
MESCAN
BGDec2009
DEC2009
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN DEC2009
Validation over the France of the MESCAN
analyzed T2m at European scale
RMSE of analyzed T2m as a function of
classes computed for Dec 2009.
Control Analysis (1300 obs)
MESCAN-FR with 1300 obs.
4210 Obs
2750 Obs
Zmod < Zobs
152900 Obs
Zmod > Zobs
• the errors are larger over complex topography
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN-Europe with 1300 obs.
Validation over the France of the Analyzed
T2m at European scale
MESCAN-EUROPE DEC2009
(HIRLAM GUESS)
Diff. between MESCAN-EU and
MESCAN-FR for the monthly T2m:
Same observations, only the guess is
different  gives an idea where the
uncertainties are ?
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
MESCAN-FRANCE DEC2009
(ALADIN GUESS)
MF in WP1: Inter-comparison of spatial interpolation methods
for daily precipitations over France and sub-regions
(P. Lassegues, M. Figarol, A.L. Gibelin, J.P. Céron)
Meteo-France DCLIM has produced an experiment of inter-comparison
of several spatialisation methods and analysis system like SAFRAN and
MESCAN for daily rainfall over France during the years 2010 and 2011.
Three methods based on rain-gauge data and radar data were tested
against methods not using radar, considered here as reference methods.
High density rain gauges network was used, including manual rain
gauges (not available in real time).
10% (421) random rain gauges were put aside for validation.
 Many scores were produced : RMSE, bias, scores for the discrimination
of rain/no rain, scores for the discrimination of heavy rains, HSS
Marc Lafitte will continue the comparison with MESCAN and SAFRAN
for 2009-2010 over France.
Domain for comparison with the
Prism-Symap method (thanks to
C. Frei, MeteoSwiss) year 2010, in
red obs. used only for validation.
(from M. Figarol et al. report)
s o m e re s u lts
RMSE m m
R M S E (a fte r sq rt
tra n sform . o f P re cip .)
M E (b ia s) m m
M R E p re cip > = 2 0 m m
H S S 2 cla sse s
co n tin g e n cy ta ble
th re sh old 0 .2 m m
H S S 2 cla sse s
co n tin g e n cy ta ble
th re sh old 2 0 m m
S E E P S (0 .2 m m -2 /3 -1 /3 )
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
P e rfe ct skill
0
0
KDE
2 .0 6 3
0 .3 8 7
TPS 3D
2 .1 0 0
0 .3 8 8
O rdin a ry K rig in g
2 .2 4 1
0 .4 0 9
0
0
1
0 .0 1 2
0 .0 5 2
0 .7 8 5
0 .0 1 5
-0 .0 6 6
0 .7 9 0
-0 .0 1 9
-0 .0 9 5
0 .7 8 4
1
0 .9 7 8
0 .9 7 6
0 .9 7 5
1
0 .8 4 6
0 .8 4 5
0 .8 3 8
Kriging with Ext. Drift
with radar data
(all observations ~3700)
MESCAN 5.5Km with
SAFRAN
(all observations ~3700)
(all observations ~3700)
MESCAN 5.5Km
SAFRAN
With real time rain gauge (~1700)
With real time rain gauge (~1700)
Oct-Nov-Dec2009
Thanks to P. Lassegues
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Indirect validation over Europe
at observation site: SMOSREX, Cabauw, Sodankyla
Latent heat flux (W/m2) SMOREX
ALD1_dz : +15 W.m-2.j-1 (+37%)
ALD2_FP : +15
W.m-2.j-1
(+40%)
MESCAN_FB : +4 W.m-2.j-1 (+10%)
14
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
Less bias with MESCAN
Thanks to M. Coustau
Future plans
•
Use the observation database merged by Tomas Landelius (SMHI) and used for
MESAN re-analysis for the MESCAN–Europe production.
• Improves the QC for the precipitation observation to avoid spurious spot in
North Africa
•
Evaluate the impact of the choice for the HIRLAM guess between 24h
cumulated from 06UTC or use several forecasts for 24h cumulated RR :
fc00+18-fc00+06+fc12+18-fc12+06 (with T. Landelius)
•
Create hourly pseudo T2m observations from Tmin/Tmax (M. Perrin, F.
Besson and J.M. Soubeyroux) : D.C Reicosky et al. (1989) Agric. And Forest
Meteo. 193-209 using only geographic information or by analogy with
neighbour station with hourly data
•
Starts the MESCAN-Europe (v0) production for Oct2009-Dec2010 in June
2013  probably available in July 2013  comparison with MESCAN-FR if
OK  run the re-analysis for 4 years.
EURO4M 4rd GA, Norrkoping, 17-19 April 2013
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