EXAMINE THE RELEVANCE OF
EXTERNAL DEBT TO ECONOMIC
GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF
NIGERIA FROM 1970-2013
PRESENTATION BY GROUP 6
LECTURERS-IN-CHARGE:
Dr Olugboyega OYERANTI
Dr Olayinka LAWANSON
INTRODUCTION
History
Nigeria started borrowing externally in the 1970s. Its external indebtedness in this period
was relatively small. As subsequent years passed, Nigeria’s external debt profile took an
upward turn, rising from $1.3 billion in 1976 to $3.2 billion in 1977 (about 146%
increase).
Nigeria’s external debt had not generated much of a public concern at this time because
Nigeria was experiencing oil-boom, and she was able to repay and service her debt.
At the beginning of 1980s when Nigeria experienced oil-price shocks, external debt
became topical issue of discussion and a source of concern to the economy. Following
subsequent periods, it had been rising in single and double digits till it reached a peak of
about $34 billion in 1995 and $36.69 billion 2004.
To solve this problem of debt over-hang, Nigeria pleaded for debt relief, which was
eventually granted in 2006.
The Nigerian Paris club arrangement provided that the club will write-off 60% (about $20
billion) of the debt that Nigeria owed members of the club,and Nigeria on its part will pay
back the remaining 40% ($12.4 billion) in two phases. Nigeria paid this amount to the
Paris club between October 2005 to April 2006 (7 months interval).
To guarantee that the resources freed from the debt relief are well utilized, a special
tracking system known as OPEN (Oversight of Public Expenditure) under NEEDS
(National Economic Empowerment and Development Strategy) was established to followup allocated resource from the point of disbursement to the point of expenditure to ensure
that the intended results are achieved.
The causes of debt accumulation in Nigeria has been attributed mainly to internal and
external factors. The external factors are: Impact of world oil price shocks, rising interest
rates, decline in policies of trade, and liberal lending policies of international commercial
banks.
The problem arising from the external factors were said to have been exacerbated by
internal factors, mostly attributed to macro-economic policy errors. Two such errors were
those associated to fiscal irresponsibility and exchange rate misalignment in Nigeria during
the period
IMPORTANCE OF EXTERNAL
DEBT TO NIGERIA’S ECONOMY
AND DEVELOPMENT
1.
External debt contributed to the growth of GDP by increasing the amount of money
available for Investments.
2.
It also helps to finance current account deficit arising from external disturbance in order
to improve external reserves position and strengthen external liquidity position in the
future.
◦ However, the effect of external debt to Nigeria’s economic growth and development has been
adverse; it has affected the economy in various ways such as:
1.
Nigeria’s external debt was so large that it has watered down a substantial part of the
country’s revenue because part of the revenue was used to service and pay off the
external debt.
2.
Diversion of resources (which are originally meant to promote the objectives of
economic growth and development) to debt servicing. Instead of these resources being
used to develop infrastructure and improve the wellbeing of the citizens, it is used to take
care of pressing debt service obligations.
3.
By cutting down expenditure on social and economic infrastructure due to debt servicing,
the government may have constrained the private sector investment growth because of
unavailability of these infrastructures.
4.
By reducing the private sector investment and public sector investment, total
investment as a whole in the country is reduced.
5.
The high debt stock also discourages foreign private investors from investing in
the country.
6.
The problem of the debt was so large that the country could not pay the full
annual interest due on loans each year. The deferred debt services have resulted
in accumulation of arrears and penalty charges which has continuously increased
the debt stock.
THEORETICAL FRAME-WORK
The under listed theoretical frame-work could be regarded as key premises to present how
external debt relates with economic growth. They are:
1.
Debt Over-hang Theory
2.
Dual Gap Analysis
DEBT OVER-HANG THEORY
The debt over-hang theory predicts an inverse relationship between two variables, and as
such, the theory predicts that a rise in external debt stock will result in a reduction in total
GDP, and on the contrary a reduction in external debt stock will result in a rise in total
GDP.
DUAL GAP ANALYSIS THEORY
The dual gap analysis theory tries to explain development as being a function of
investment, and that such investment which require domestic savings will not be possible
using domestic savings alone, rather there must be the possibility of obtaining from abroad
the amount that can be invested in any country that is identical with the amount that is
saved. The external debt serves to supplement domestic savings and allows those countries
to carry out productive activities.
EXTERNAL DEBT GROWTH RATE AND GDP GROWTH RATE
3
2.5
2
EXTERNAL DEBT
GROWTH RATE (%)
GDP GROWTH
RATE (%)
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
Source:
CBN Statistical Bulletin
T H I S G R A P H E X P L A I N S T H E P O S I T I V E E F F E C T O F D U A L G R A P H A N A LY S I S
A N D A L S O T H E N E G AT I V E E F F E C T O F D E B T O V E R - H A N G T H E O R Y .
PERFORMANCE INDICATORS
 EXTERNAL DEBT TO EXPORT
External debt of the economy X 100%
Total export of the economy
 EXTERNAL DEBT TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
External debt of the economy X 100%
GDP of the economy
 EXTERNAL DEBT TO GOVERNMENT REVENUE
External debt of the economy X 100%
Government revenue of the economy
EXTERNAL DEBT TO EXPORT
External debt of the economy X 100%
Total export of the economy
EXTERNAL DEBT TO TOTAL EXPORT (%)
800.00%
700.00%
600.00%
500.00%
400.00%
300.00%
200.00%
100.00%
0.00%
EXTERNAL DEBT TO TOTAL EXPORT (%)
EXTERNAL DEBT TO GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
External debt of the economy X 100%
GDP of the economy
EXTERNAL DEBT TO GDP (%)
250.00%
200.00%
150.00%
100.00%
50.00%
0.00%
EXTERNAL DEBT TO GDP (%)
ASSESSMENT OF THE NIGERIAN
ECONOMY IN RELATION TO
EXTERNAL DEBT
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT STOCKS (US $ BILLION)
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
TOTAL EXTERNAL DEBT STOCKS (US $
BILLION)
TOTAL GDP (US $ BILLION)
60
50
40
30
TOTAL GDP (US $ BILLION)
20
10
0
It can be seen that in the 1970s, external debt was relatively low, and GDP was increasing.
We can say that the controlled external debt in the 1970s was a positive influence on the
GDP growth through investment.
During the mid 1970’s to the late 1970’s, external debt was rising, this was as a result of
the world oil price boom, which enabled Nigeria to be able to service her debts.
However in the early 80’s, the external debt grew at an alarming rate, which raised issues
of concern. This external debt grew as a result of world oil price shock in the early 80’s,
which reduced the ability of Nigeria to service her external debts.
Around the period of 2005-2006, we can see that Nigeria experienced a sharp fall in its
external debt, which can be attributed to the debt relief she received from the Paris club
during this period.
From 2007 till date, there has been a fluctuation in the external debt rising in 2007, and
falling in 2010.
It is important to note that the years when external debt was high, GDP growth was low,
while the years when external debt was minimal and controlled the GDP growth rate was
relatively high. Hence we can conclude that a minimally controlled external debt used for
productive activities can increase GDP.
INSTITUTIONAL ENVIRONMENT
oDEBT MANAGEMENT OFFICE
oTHE FEDERAL MINISTRY OF FINANCE
oOFFICE OF THE ACCOUNTANT GENERAL OF THE FEDERATION
oBUDGET OFFICE OF THE FEDERATION
oCENTRAL BANK OF NIGERIA
oNATIONAL BUREAU OF STATISTICS
oSECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
oBUREAU OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISE
oNATIONAL PLANNING COMMISSION
POLICIES
1.
An external debt stock GDP ratio of 20% was recommended by The Debt
Management Office.
2.
DMO had between 2007 and 2012 implemented a debt management strategy at
the sub-national level of government, leading to the establishment of the debt
management department in each state of the country
3.
Any arm of government in the federation or its agencies and parastatals can only
obtain external loans through the federal government.
RECOMMENDATIONS
1.
Monitoring both federal and state government external loans; ensuring that
external debts stay within prudent and conservative range that is appropriate
for the economy.
2.
Contracting external loans on concessional terms like: 0% interest rates, 40years
maturity and 10 years grace. By this we mean that loans that must be contracted
must be well scrutinized to give allowance to these concessional terms that will
help make debts incurred easy to repay.
3.
Paying off debt that is due to the extent of our ability. This implies that the
country should not keep accruing debt that are due for servicing that could
have been paid off.
4.
Monitoring of loans, and making sure that the loans are applied to specific
projects that are productive.
5.
Making the procedure for federal and state government borrowing
transparent. In other words, due process should be followed in every
borrowing transaction.