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PFST
Bacon & Eggheads Breakfast
Petit-déjeuner avec des têtes à Papineau
Western University
Reducing Risks, Gaining Benefits – Coping with Weird
Weather in a Changing Climate
Réduire les risques et obtenir des avantages : s’adapter
à la météo incertaine dans le contexte des changements climatiquess
Supported by
Appuyé par

Professor Gordon McBean
C.M., O.Ont, Ph.D., FRSC
Chair, Canadian Climate Forum
Centre for Environment and Sustainability
Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction
Western University
President-elect
International Council for Sceince

CLIMATE IS THE “STATISTICS OF WEATHER”
AND THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING
0.18
0.13
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IPCC (2007) - Warming of the climate system is unequivocal , as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air and ocean temperatures, widespread melting of snow and ice, and rising global average sea level. Eleven of the last twelve years (1995 -2006) rank among the 12 warmest years in the instrumental record of global surface temperature (since 1850).
The World Meteorological Organization (2011) : “2010 ranked as the warmest year on record, together with 2005 and
1998”.
“The ten warmest years on record have all occurred since 1998. Over the ten years from 2001 to 2010, global temperatures have averaged 0.46°C above the 1961-1990 average, and are the highest ever recorded for a 10-year
period since the beginning of instrumental climate records.
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Weather-climate related disasters in Canada (1900-2011)
Severe storms
Floods
Wildfire
10 Year Period
* Only two years of decade
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“Weird” is unusual and the opposite of
“normal”.
In climate we define “normal” in terms of 30-y (or at least decadal) means and statistics.

PROJECTED WARMING IN THE FUTURE
FUTURE
GROWTH
OF 3-5°
0.18
0.13
0.2+
SCIENCE
UNCERTAINTY
WARMING
O C PER DECADE
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Focus on 2050
SEASONAL CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE
(relative to 1961–1990)
WINTER SUMMER
4.5°C
3.5°C
3.5°C
Canada will warm more than global average warming
+ 1.5C by 2050
Much warmer winters and warmer summers by 2050.
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SEASONAL CHANGE IN PRECIPITATION BY 2050
(relative to 1961–1990)
WINTER SUMMER
Hot weather and reduced rain – desertification risk
30%
<10%
10%
More precipitation in winters by 2050.
More rain and less snow.
Summers
– variable change.
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% CHANGES IN PROJECTED SNOW DEPTH
(MARCH 2050)
UP TO 100% REDUCTIONS ACROSS MID-
LATITUDES
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CANADIANS AND PEOPLE AROUND
THE GLOBE WILL NEED TO
“ADAPT”:
“ making adjustments in our decisions, activities and thinking because of observed or expected changes in climate, in order to moderate harm or take advantage of new
BENEFITS – COPING WITH WEIRD
WEATHER IN A CHANGING
CLIMATE
WEIRD WEATHER – HOW TO ADAPT?
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Human Health in a Changing Climate:
A Canadian Assessment of Vulnerabilities and
Adaptive Capacity (2008)
• “Climate change is expected to increase risk to the health of
Canadians through many pathways: they food they eat, the air they breathe, the water they drink, and their exposure to extreme weather events and infectious diseases found in nature.”
• “Climate change is the biggest global health threat of the 21st century”
–
Lancet and UCL, 2009
14

NUMBER OF HOT DAYS* PER YEAR
IN EUROPE: RECORD SETTING AUGUST 2003
(MORE THAN 70,000 DEATHS) WILL BE
EVERY SECOND SUMMER BY MID-CENTURY
68
8
22
37
Projected
Observed
Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis
*A hot day is defined as a day with a maximum temperature above 30C
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Extreme Events
MORE HOT DAYS
The 8 day heat event in 2009 in the Vancouver and Lower Fraser area caused 134 deaths
A 1990’s 1-in-20 year hottest day is likely to become a 1-in-3-5 (Year) event by
2050.
4-6 TIMES AS MANY HOT DAYS.
By 2050, for every 100,000 people,
Climate Change for Canada
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Extreme Events
FREEZING RAIN
Eastern Canada Ice Storm 1998
30+ deaths $5 b + damages
Months of impact
Extreme events - the unborn and children :
“Children whose mother experienced high stress
(during the Quebec 1998 ice storm) scored lower on IQ and language performance tests than those whose mothers had less stress.”
Freezing rain events by 2050
Ottawa –Montreal-Quebec City: 50%
INCREASE in the number of freezing rain events of more than 4 hours. Close to 80%

Extreme Events
SUMMER STORMS Toronto Rain/Wind Event 2005
$624 m insured losses
Calgary Rain/Wind – 2010 – $1B
Calgary Rain/Wind – 2009 – $362 m
SW Ontario Rain/Wind –2009 – $482 m
Calgary Hail – 1991 – $885 m
By 2050, a 1990’s 1-in-20 year annual maximum daily precipitation amount is likely to become a 1-in-10 to 1-in-15 year event.
ABOUT TWICE AS MANY HEAVY

Extreme Events
SUMMER STORMS –
TORNADOES
Goderich tornado – 2011
GTA (Vaughan) tornado – 2009
Pine Lake - 2000
Edmonton tornado – 1987
With more heavy precipitation and hot days --
Increased risk of tornadoes
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COPING WITH WEIRD WEATHER
•
Improved observations and predictions
•
Better structural design
Environment Canada of homes and property.
•
Insurance Research
Laboratory for Better
Homes
•
Wind Engineering,
Energy and Environment
Dome

Extreme Events
FLOODING
Flooding
Saguenay – 1996 – $271 m
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The 1999-2004 Drought
2002
0-20% of expected yield for spring wheat, barley, canola, and field peas
- prelude of future droughts.
Reduce vulnerability -
•
$5.8 billion in lost GDP
•
41,000+ jobs lost lead time for adaptations
•
5 times as many forest fires in Alberta
•
Blowing dust - contributing factor in two fatalities
.
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Extreme Events
WILDFIRES
$700 m insured losses
Kelowna – 2003 – $227 m
MORE THAN 50% INCREASE
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Climate Change and Its Impact on Horticulture in
Ontario
•
•
•
Climate Change/Dealing with Adverse Weather
BIOTRON
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Sea Level Rise – and Hurricanes with Stronger Winds
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Sea Level Rise Adaptation Primer
A toolkit to build adaptive capacity on Canada’s south coasts
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•
1m of SLR would cause an about
$12B in damages to City of
Vancouver alone.
• Much of Vancouver’s infrastructure was built to historical standards and will require significant reinforcement.
•
In 2011, BCMoE issued guidelines specifying that coastal infrastructure should be designed to withstand 1.2m over 100 years (=3.3m with storm surge and king tide conditions); 2m over 200 years.

IN THE NORTH
Cold winters are needed in order to build roads over otherwise impassable lakes and muskeg.
Most years the Tibbitt to Contwoyto winter road is open 70 days, but the warm winter of 2005-06 meant only 50 days of use thanks to a late start and early closure. Only 6,841 loads out of the planned 9,000 loads made it by truck into the Diavik
Diamond Mine, which then had to spend tens of millions of dollars flying in 13,000 tonnes of dry cargo and 11,000 tonnes of fuel.
WITH THE WARMER CLIMATE, THIS WILL BE A MUCH
BIGGER PROBLEM
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Climate Change – as a national security issue
•
Northwest Passage
•
Continental Shelf
Extension
•
Exploration and exploitation of Arctic resources

Integrated Environmental Prediction – on all times scales
Informing decision making for coping with the weather in a changing climate
Water Resources:
Food security: Monthly to
Applying regional scale climate model failure risk.
conditions.
UK Met Office

Coastal Cities at Risk -
Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate
Change in Coastal Megacities
Vancouver, Bangkok, Manila, Lagos
Partnering with Shanghai and others
2011-2016
Better planned and safer cities and reduced socioeconomic impacts as the climate changes.
Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our country partners

SUMMARY OF PRESENTATION
• Canada’s climate is changing and these weather trends are already affecting
Canadians;
•
Severe weather is projected to increase over the next 40 years and beyond;
•
Information about weather and climate on times scales from now to next decades will allow public and private sector leaders to reduce risks and gain benefits;
•
Science, engineering and technology provide solutions.
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Insurance Research Lab for Better Homes
Thank you for your attention