Maritime Piracy Event & Location Data Project
Brandon C. Prins – Department of Political Science & Howard Baker Center for Public Policy, University of Tennessee
Ursula Daxecker – Department of Political Science, University of Amsterdam
Project Goals
Global Maritime Piracy
• Explore the structural and micro-level drivers of
modern maritime piracy
• Geo-code all pirate attacks worldwide
• Cross-check data against other available data collection
efforts
• Build database on pirates and pirate organizations
through expert surveys
• Create online web portal to access incident-level data
and filter on several piracy characteristics
• Dynamically map geo-coded piracy data
• Forecast piracy globally and in specific country contexts
Sub-Saharan African Piracy
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MPELD Database
Pirate Attacks, 1993-2013
Theoretical Conjectures
• Modern maritime piracy driven by opportunity,
willingness, and loss of strength gradient.
• Fragile and corrupt governing institutions provide
opportunity
• Poverty, inequality, and overall joblessness provide
willingness (grievance)
• Physical topography of country interacts with state
weakness to produce loss of strength gradient.
• Pirates strategically consider loss of strength gradient in
their location considerations.
• Climatic conditions impact timing of attacks
• Piracy may be connected to insurgent groups as funding
source
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Pirate attacks consistently occur in SE
Asia near & around Malacca Straits
Somali increase beginning in 2009
appears to be an anomaly
Analytical model forecasts 248 pirate
attacks in 2014 (currently 162)
Shareable Data Created
• Global Piracy Incidents Database (GPI) – Data on piracy
events recorded at the incident, country-month, and
country-year levels. Information on important
correlates of piracy also contained in the data-files.
• Mapping Pirate Organizations Database (MPO) – Survey
data on pirate organizations in four or five piracy-prone
countries.
• Maritime Piracy Event and Location Dataset (MPELD) –
Geo-spatial coding of piracy incidents
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Global piracy counts down 11% from 2012 and 40% from 2011
Greater Gulf of Aden piracy drops dramatically from 2011 (152 incidents)
to 2013 (13 incidents). Greater drop if include incidents off Seychelles
and Maldives.
Piracy in Indonesian waters increases by over 70% from 2011 to 2013
Nigerian piracy increases by over 160% from 2011 to 2013
Bunkering of transport oil now a threat not only in Guinea Gulf waters.
Success rate of pirate attacks over 90% in Indonesian waters but only
around 50% in the Gulf of Guinea (location of attack important. Only
15% of attacks in Indonesian waters occur while ships are steaming.
Over 75% of attacks in Nigerian waters occur while ships are steaming.
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2005-2013
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Key Figures of 2013
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• Over 6,000 geo-coded piracy
incidents
• Currently 1993-2013
• Currently inputting 2014
• Filters include country, time
of day, ship characteristics,
whether ship was underway,
pirate-specific information.
• Online data portal currently
under construction for
visualizing collected
information.
Somalia, Nigeria, and
Tanzania are most piracyprone countries
Pirates increasingly attack
ships underway
Distance from coast to pirate
attacks has increased
Piracy in Sub-Saharan Africa
appears more violent than
elsewhere
Pirate success rates have
declined
Plurality of attacks occur
between midnight and 6am.
Drivers of piracy remain
strong in Sub-Saharan African
countries
All forms of political violence
have increased over the past
5 years in Sub-Saharan Africa
Climatic patterns may affect
piracy in some countries
Heat Map of Piracy
Terrorist Attacks
Armed Conflict
Research Accomplishments
Somali Piracy 2011
SE Asian Piracy 2010-2013
Steaming Vessels
Somali Piracy 2013
SE Asian Piracy 2010-2013
Stationary Vessels
• Ursula Daxecker & Brandon Prins. 2014. “The New Barbary Wars: Forecasting
Maritime Piracy.” Forthcoming in Foreign Policy Analysis.
• Ursula Daxecker, Brandon Prins, & Amanda Sanford. 2014. “Terror on the High
Seas.” SAIS Review Fall 2013.
• Brandon Prins, Ursula Daxecker & Amanda Sanford. 2013. “The New Barbary
Wars: Assessing the Threat of Modern Day Piracy.” Howard H. Baker, Jr. Center
for Public Policy, Policy Brief Series 3:13.
• Maritime Piracy Event & Location Dataset, June 2014 Report: Focus on Piracy in
Sub-Saharan Africa.
• Ursula Daxecker and Brandon Prins. 2014. “Enforcing Order: Territorial Reach
and Maritime Piracy.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the
International Studies Association Meeting, Toronto, Canada, March 26-30, 2014.
(Invited)
• Ursula Daxecker and Brandon Prins. 2014. “Seeking Sanctuary: Government
Power and the Location of Piracy.” Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of
the European Political Science Association, Edinburgh, Scotland, June 18-22,
2014. (Invited)
• Ursula Daxecker. “Piracy and Counterpiracy.: Presented at the Free University
Amsterdam, February 20, 2014, Amsterdam, NL. (Invited)
• Brandon Prins. “The Threat of Maritime Piracy.” Presented at the Howard H.
Baker, Jr. Center for Public Policy, March 13 2014, Knoxville, TN. (Invited)