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FACETs:
A New Warning Paradigm &
Framework for Progress
Seeking Clarity & Coalescence
in the Primordial Soup
Lans P. Rothfusz
Deputy Chief
Warning R & D Division
National Severe Storms Laboratory
Informing a Paradigm Shift
Refine, revise and/or reinvent.
Challenges
we have
now.
Trajectories
of science,
tools and
society.
Good things
we do now.
First, do no harm!
Future
Warning
Paradigm
Where we’re headed.
The State of Warnings and Warning R&D
A SAMPLING OF CURRENT
CHALLENGES
Is There Anything Wrong with
this Tornado Warning?
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 2012
Answer: The Year!
*TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1 PM CST
* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED
BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE
AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
Courtesy: Alan Gerard
Is There Anything Wrong with
this Tornado Warning?
BULLETIN – EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSON MS
1155 AM CST SUN FEB 21 1971
40+ years ago!!
*TORNADO WARNING FOR…
NORTHERN SUNFLOWER COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
TALLAHATCHIE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI
* UNTIL 1 PM CST
* AT 1155 AM CST…A TORNADO WAS REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC AND INDICATED
BY RADAR 5 MILES NORTHEAST OF CLEVELAND…AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
IF THREATENING CONDITIONS ARE SIGHTED…BE PREPARED TO MOVE TO A
PLACE OF SAFETY. TO REPORT A TORNADO OR OTHER SEVERE WEATHER…PLACE
AN EMERGENCY CALL TO THE JACKSON MS NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
AT 601 939 5751…OR ASK THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY TO RELAY
YOUR REPORT TO THE NEAREST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.
Courtesy: Alan Gerard
Current Warning System
“Challenges”
• Warning methodologies have changed
little in over 40 years.
– Except for “bullet format” and “storm-based”
issuance.
• Society has changed….
–
–
–
–
–
Technology
Science
Social diversity
Lifestyles
Vulnerability
Current Warning System
“Challenges”
• Polygons (in their current formulation) are
blunt instruments for communicating a
dynamic, small-scale threat.
Courtesy Greg Carbin, NWS SPC
Current Warning System
“Challenges”
Information Void(s)
Outlooks
Watches
Days
Time
Warnings
Minutes
Hours
Event
Space
Regional
State
Local
Information Continuum
• Product-centric and binary.
• More information needed.
• More information available.
Adapted from Dr. Heather Lazrus (SSWIM)
Where We’re Headed…
EVOLUTIONAL
TRAJECTORIES
Evolutional Trajectory #1
• Evolving
Methods…
– Some under
development (e.g.,
WoF)
– Most unsupported
and/or untested.
– None are
coordinated with
the others.
PHI
WoF
FDP
THESPA
TIM
Threat Petals
Evolutional Trajectory #2
• Evolving Domain…
– All developmental
trajectories point
toward The Grid!
– Severe ops, however,
are not on it.
• A key issue for the
future of warnings!!
MRMS
Evolutional Trajectory #3
• Evolving Output…
– Disparate projects
intended to make
warnings more
effective in
influencing human
behavior.
Evolutional Trajectory #4
• A Nurturing
Environment…
– Testbeds & Proving
Grounds.
– NWS Roadmap.
• Decision Support
Services (DSS) through
Pilot Projects.
– Weather Ready
Nation.
• Emphasis on social
science.
The Primordial Soup
The Primordial Soup
• “Ingredients” of the primordial soup are
advancing, but each on their own trajectory.
• Poorly-coordinated = No assurance each
will “arrive” in the same place as the others.
– Impractical in today’s fiscal climate.
– Problematic for those managing “warning R&D.”
• All connected by a common desire to
improve public safety!
The Opportunity
• There is a need (and opportunity) to
coalesce the disparate activities into a
single vision for a threat forecasting*
paradigm that is…
–
–
–
–
–
–
Modern
Effective
Scientifically robust
Holistic
Unifying
Responsive to WRN-identified issues
*beyond watches & warnings
Forecasting a Continuum of
Environmental Threats
FACETs Paradigm
• Seven Facets of the Paradigm
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
Grid-Based Probabilistic Threats
Storm-Scale Obs & Guidance
The Forecaster
Threat Grid Tools
Useful Output
Effective Response
Verification
Temporal
Continuum
of the
Threat
Forecasting
Process
Facet #1: Grid-Based
Probabilistic Threats
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
ACK!!!
Probabilities for the public?!
Facet #1: Grid-Based
Probabilistic Threats
• Grid-Based,
Probabilistic Hazard
Information (PHI)
– Forecasters convey
threat probability on
grids.
– NOT (explicitly)
watches or warnings,
but…
Tornado threat index
Valid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm CDT
Last updated: 6 minutes ago
Courtesy G. Stumpf
Facet #1: Grid-Based
Probabilistic Threats
Sub-Warning
Alert for High Wind
• Legacy products
(warnings/watches) result
from pre-determined
thresholds.
• De-emphasizes the binary
“warn/don’t warn”
decision of forecasters.
• Enables new products!
“Byproduct”
Tornado Warning
Tornado threat index
Valid 10:00 pm-10:15 pm CDT
Last updated: 6 minutes ago
Courtesy G. Stumpf
Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
• Warn on Forecast
– NWP for storm-scale processes.
– Probabilistic output that will enable FACETs.
Facet #2: Obs & Guidance
• Multi-Year Reanalysis of Remotely-Sensed
Storms (MYRORSS).
– 15-year radar data reanalysis.
– Statistical (probabilistic) output of
climatological storm-scale “behavior”
(phenomena, longevity, severity, etc.)
– Paves way for WoF probabilistic output.
Synoptic Scale
Storm Scale
GFS, NAM, RAP, etc.
Warn on Forecast
MOS
Multi-Year Reanalysis of
Remotely-Sensed Storms
(MYRORSS)
Facet #3: The Forecaster
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Facet #3: The Forecaster
• Forecasters over (and in) the grids!!
– As essential as ever to the warning process.
• New paradigm = new training!
–
–
–
–
–
Probabilistic threat information.
Uncertainty conveyance.
Use of guidance.
Best practices.
Tool use, etc.
• For maximum effectiveness of FACETs,
NWS must have renewed training efforts.
Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Facet #4: Threat Grid Tools
• WarnGen for threat grids.
• GSD’s “Hazard Services”
AWIPS-II app is headed in
this direction.
– Specific tools needed for
storm-scale threats.
• For example, a supercell widget
to quickly “draw” hail, wind and
tornado threat swaths all at once.
• Need to strengthen
connections to warning
R&D.
Facet #5: Useful Output
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
Facet #5: Useful Output
Sub-Warning
Alert for High Wind
• Watches & warnings, yes.
– User-specifiable thresholds!
• Impact-focused, with new
information
– Urgency, confidence, range
of possibilities, etc.
• Enables copious
opportunities for private
sector partners.
“Byproduct”
Tornado Warning
Courtesy G. Stumpf
Facet #5: Useful Output
GIS layers
Hail Damage
Trees Down
>EF3 Tornado
Lightning
Wind Grid
Hail Grid
Tornado Grid
Impact Grid
Facet #5: Useful Output
Weather Threats
4701 N Porter Ave
Last Update
6:15 p.m.
5:00
High
Until
6:45 p.m.
5:30
90
80
Act Now!
Act Now!
Med
35
Low
35
10
Hail
5
2
Wind
1
Flood Tornado
Phone App Example
Facet #5: Useful Output
• Better DSS through better (and easier)
impact communication.
– Based on weather threat forecast, a GIS-based,
“impact translator tool” could communicate
the site-specific impact.
• Forecast: “Wind gusts to 60 mph”
• Impact: “Numerous trees and branches will fall.
Roofing material will be peeled back. Mobile homes
will be rolled.”
– Gives more useful, actionable, recipientspecific information.
Facet #6: Effective Response
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
Effective
Response
Facet #6: Effective Response
• Start at the end…
– “Look at the desired response and work our way
backwards from there.” - Dr. Russ Schneider
The Impact
Preparation
Awareness
Response
Forecaster
Public
Education
Method
Guidance
Decision
Tools
Output
SocSci Integration Points
Sociology
Economics
Public
Education
Psychology
Sociology
Anthropology
Law
Preparation
Awareness
Response
Economics
Economics
Psychology
Political
Science
Cultural
Studies
Anthropology
Communication
Public
Policy
The Impact
Linguistics
Human
Geography
Cultural
Studies
Forecaster
Human
Factors
Method
Human
Factors
Human
Factors
Anthropology
Human
Human Linguistics
Psychology Factors Psychology Factors
Guidance
Decision
Tools
Political
Science
Communication
Psychology
Output
Facet #7: Verification
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
Observations
& Guidance
The
Forecaster
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
Effective
Response
Verification
Methods
Facet #7: Verification
• Forecasts and observations on the same
coordinate system: A geospatial grid.
• Statistically-valid and scientifically-robust
results suitable for system improvement &
research.
– Reliability
– Resolution
} Brier Score
FALSE
• New metrics possible…
– False alarm time & area.
– Site-specific lead time, etc.
CORRECT
NULL
Resolution: 1 km2 × 1 min
From ECMWF and Allan Murphy
FACETs
Grid-Based
Probabilistic
Threats
• PHI
• TIM
Observations
& Guidance
• WoF
• MYRORSS
The
Forecaster
• Training
• Drills
• Best
Practices
• DSS
Threat Grid
Tools
Useful
Output
• Hazard
Services
• NWSWarn
• Threat Petals
• HazSimp
• Impactbased
warnings
• Mid-South
Warning
Improvement
Project
• DSS
Effective
Response
•
•
•
•
Education
Preparedness
Awareness
Threat &
Vulnerability
Matching
HWT, OPG & Pilot Project “Development & Polishing”
Integrated Social Science
Verification
Methods
• Grid-based,
improved
metrics.
In Conclusion…
• FACETs is…
…A new warning paradigm (grid-based threats);
…A framework intended to organize and guide
reinvention efforts.
• FACETs designed to…
…Continue “the good” of the present system.
…Accommodate trajectories of science,
technology and society;
…Focus and guide warning R&D work;
…Provide clarity in “The Primordial Soup!”
Comments,
Questions and/or
Suggestions?
Lans P. Rothfusz
[email protected]
678-665-7049
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