ASSESSMENT OF
CHANGING SEA ICE
CONDITIONS AND SHIPPING
ACTIVITY IN CANADIAN
ARCTIC WATERS
1990-2012
Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014)
Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in
Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi:
10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.
University of
Ottawa
Larissa Pizzolato
Jackie Dawson
Luke Copland
Environment
Canada: Climate
Research
Division
Stephen Howell
Chris Derksen
BACKGROUND
Sep 1990
Sep 2012
NCEP-NCAR
NSIDC, 2013
Maslanik et al., 2011
F U T U R E PR O J EC TIONS:
MODELLED SHIPPING INCREASES
 Two climate forcing
scenarios: RCP 4.5
(low – medium) and
RCP 8.5 (high)
 Red: Fastest transArctic routes for Polar
Class 6 ships
 Blue: Fastest transArctic routes for open
water ships
Smith & Stephenson, 2013
OBJECTIVES
1) Is shipping in the
Canadian Arctic
increasing?
2) Is sea ice (total ice,
MYI, FYI) declining?
3) Is there a connecting
between shipping
activity and changing
sea ice conditions?
DATA DESCRIPTIONS
Dataset
Summary
•
1990 to present
•
82 555 spatial data records
•
Vessel name, call sign, IMO
number, location
•
Canadian Ice Service Weekly
regional ice charts across the
entire Canadian Arctic
Surface Air
Temperature
•
NCEP-NCAR monthly SAT
means
Melt Season
Length
•
Melt Onset, Freeze Onset,
Melt Season Length
Ships
Sea Ice
METHODOLOGY
Data
Acquisition
Quality
Control
 Correct for inconsistencies in vessel name, type, location
Reclassification of
Vessel Type
 36 reported vessel types reclassified using
AMSA report into 10 categories
Regime
Shift
Detection
 Rodionov Statistical Regime Shift
Detector
Trend
Analysis
 Zhang Method, Sen`s Slope of the
Tr e n d
 M o n t h l y, A n n u a l l y, S h i p p i n g S e a s o n
Correlation
Analysis
 K e n d a l l ` s Ta u R a n k
Correlation
REGIME SHIFT DETECTION
 Step increase in
total shipping
activity in the
Canadian Arctic in
2007
 Confidence that
change in
reporting did not
affect shipping
dataset
ANNUAL SHIPPING TRENDS
Annual ship counts are increasing
for some vessel types:
 Bulk Carriers and Passenger Ships
 3 vessels decade -1
 Government Vessels and
Icebreakers and Pleasure Crafts
 8 vessels decade -1
MONTHLY SHIPPING TRENDS
Total ship increases are observed in some months:
June (9 vessels decade -1 )
July (22 vessels decade -1 )
and November (13 vessels decade -1 )
Shipping Trends (Vessels Decade-1)
Vessel Type
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Bulk Carriers
0
-1
0
0
2
1
Fishing Vessels
6
5
13
3
0
5
General Cargo
0
1
1
1
3
3
Government Vessels and
Icebreakers
1
3
3
2
4
1
Passenger Ships
-
2
2
3
0
-
Pleasure Crafts
-
1
18
4
0
-
Tanker Ships
2
2
0
6
0
1
SHIPPING SEASON SEA ICE
JUNE 25 TO OCTOBER 15
a. Total Ice
b. MYI
-30 (x 103) km2 year -1
c. FYI
-11 (x 103) km2 year -1
-19 (x 103) km2 year -1
MONTHLY SEA ICE TRENDS
 Total Ice area and MYI area is
declining in all months of the
year (with the exception of Total
Ice area in April)
 FYI area is declining during the
summer months
Month
Trend
Ice Area (x 103) km2 year
Total
MYI
FYI
Ice
January
-8
-14
3
February
-7
-13
3
March
-5
-13
5
April
-1
-13
4
May
June
July
-9
-19
-11
-10
1
-5
-34
-14
-19
August
-29
-17
-13
September
-28
-22
-6
October
-27
-23
-3
November
-24
-21
-9
December
-15
-18
-6
-1
ARE SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN
THE CANADIAN ARCTIC LINKED?
 No significant
relationships identified
outside the months of
July through October
or for FYI
 Weak relationships
between shipping
activity and Total Ice
Area ( - 0 . 3 0 t o - 0 . 3 4 )
 Stronger relationships
identified between MYI
Area and shipping
activity ( - 0 . 3 0 t o - 0 . 4 4 ) for
specific months and
vessel types
SEA ICE AND SHIPPING ACTIVITY IN
RECENT YEARS
Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and MYI area
and shipping activity in more recent years.
MELT SEASON LENGTH
AND
SURFACE AIR TEMPERATURE
 Increasing SAT at a rate of 0.7ºC to 1.8ºC decade -1
 Melt Season length + 11 days decade -1
 Freeze onset + 8 days decade -1
 Earlier melt onset linked to
increasing number of
Passenger Ships annually
 Strong link between Total Ice
area and:
 Melt season length
 Melt onset
 Freeze onset
FUTURE WORK
 Spatio-temporal changes in
shipping activity and sea ice
conditions from 1990 to 2012
 Identification of regions of
increased (or decreased)
shipping activity
 Are regions of increased ship
activity also areas of sea ice
decline/thinning?
SUMMARY
 Step increase in shipping activity in 2007
 Increasing shipping activity for some vessel types annually, and
monthly between June and November
 Evidence of extension of the shipping season into the shoulder
seasons of June and November
 Physical relationships are weak, suggesting other factors (i.e.
economics, tourism) play an important role in observed increases
shipping activity
 Strengthening relationship between Total Ice area and shipping
activity in recent years
University of
Ottawa
Larissa Pizzolato
Jackie Dawson
Luke Copland
Thank-You!
Environment
Canada: Climate
Research
Division
Stephen Howell
Chris Derksen
Pizzolato L, Howell SEL, Derksen C, Dawson J, Copland L (2014)
Changing sea ice conditions and marine transportation activity in
Canadian Arctic waters between 1990 and 2012. Climatic Change. doi:
10.1007/s10584-013-1038-3.