New Training Course on
Use of NWP in Forecast Operations
William R. Bua
Stephen D. Jascourt*
UCAR/COMET
*presenter
Outline
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Existing COMET NWP Training
NWP Training Needs for Forecasters
Course Design
Course Content Overview
Conclusion
Existing COMET NWP Training
Oriented toward operational forecaster
Free, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu
Existing COMET NWP Training
Oriented toward operational forecaster
Free, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu
Existing COMET NWP Training
Oriented toward operational forecaster
Free, publicly available: www.meted.ucar.edu
• Course on fundamentals of NWP (1999-2000)
• Reference matrix on current models
– parameterizations, terrain, layers, assimilated data, …
– ensemble configurations
• Modules (NAM-WRF, ensemble basics, RTMA, etc.)
• Mini-cases (mostly old)
• VISITview Teletraining archives
Focus mostly model concepts and specific models
Need more on use in forecast context
NWP Training Needs for Forecasters
Survey (JP4.5) of NWS SOOs and Scientific Service Divisions
Identified 4 main categories:
• Forecast process
(pay attention to observations, analyze/think!)
• Core model topics
(bias, diagostics, what’s in the model, etc..)
• Uncertainty/probabilistic
(focusing heavily on use of ensembles)
• Local-scale forecasting (high-resolution models, downscaling, etc.)
Identified priority topics:
• Using NWP to assess forecast uncertainty, probabilistic NWP
• Using NWP for mesoscale prediction
• Using NWP in preparing 5-km and 2.5-km forecast grids
Course Design
Design: ~ NWS/WDTB Advanced Warning Operations Course
• 1-page consolidated user interface
• Subject Matter Experts  content and organization
• Individual lessons grouped into units
• Practical application on Weather Event Simulator (WDTB help)
• Quiz for credit: each lesson, certificate upon completing a unit
Instructional Designers: Lessons = Lectures
New Course
1) Update old course
2) Continue providing model-specific information
3) New units on use of NWP in forecast process
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
brief
2009
Unit 2: NWP Basics
includes updated, trimmed old course
2009
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
2009
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
2010
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
2010
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
2011+
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
brief
2009
2011+
Unit 2: NWP Basics
includes updated, trimmed old course
2009
2011+
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
2009
2011+
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
2010
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
2010
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
2011+
And update
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Model system (generic fundamentals):
• Dynamics, terrain, precipitation, radiation, PBL, etc.
Unit 3: Using•and
Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Postprocessing
• Assimilation
• Ensembles
Unit 4: Special
Problems (terrain,
coastal, convection, …)
Model Forecast
matrix – reference
look-up information
New Emerging tools:
• North American Ensemble Forecast System
Unit 5: NWP•Use
in Gridded Forecast
Generation
High-resolution
(convection-allowing)
models
• Bias correction
• Downscaling
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Steps in Forecast Process
• Preparing to evaluate NWP models and forecast + WES case
Unit 4: Special
Forecast
Problems
(terrain,+coastal,
convection, …)
• Analysis
and model
initialization
WES case
• Determining plausible forecast outcomes + WES case
• Optimizing use of model data products + WES case
Unit 5: NWP
Use in Gridded
Generation
• Understanding
the Forecast
role and use
of deterministic vs. probabilistic
NWP information + WES case
• Recognizing where and when human can add value to NWP + WES
Unit 6: Emerging
Synthesis future
in WEStopics
case
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
Unit 2: NWP Basics
NWS and
gridded
forecast
possible
topics:
Unit 3: Using
Adding
Valueproduction
to NWP in –the
Forecast
Process
• Starting points
• Evaluating model data in the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE)
• Downscaling
in GFE coastal, convection, …)
Unit 4: Special
Forecasttechniques
Problems (terrain,
• Forecast funnel in the NWS forecast environment
• Small spatial scales at long time ranges
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Possible topics depending on needs, technology in forecast office:
• When data flow changes from push to pull: which data to select?
• Quick
of modelGeneration
data: wading through data spigot
Unit 5: NWP
Use assessment
in Gridded Forecast
• 3-d visualization of model data
• Interpreting environmental forecasts, not just weather
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Course Content Overview
Unit 1: Orientation
Unit 2: NWP Basics
Unit 3: Using and Adding Value to NWP in the Forecast Process
Unit 4: Special Forecast Problems (terrain, coastal, convection, …)
Unit 5: NWP Use in Gridded Forecast Generation
Content Trimming Principle
Could it affect a forecaster’s decision?
Unit 6: Emerging future topics
Conclusion
New COMET distance-learning NWP Course:
• Collaborative effort with SOOs and other NWS experts
• Update + shorten course on NWP basics/fundamentals
• Continue updating information on current models
• Focus new content on context in forecast process
• Interactive, not lectures
• Limit content to what forecaster will actually use