Emerging economies The BRIC and MINT groups Simon Oakes Emerging economies Presentation outline 1. What is an emerging economy? 2. The BRIC group 3. The MINT group 4. More global groupings 5. Controversial countries 6. What happens next? Emerging economies The focus of this presentation is the BRIC and MINT groups BRIC and MINT Their combined population exceeds 3 billion: that’s nearly half the world’s population Emerging economies What is an emerging economy? • A nation with an economy that is progressing towards developed status. • An economy with a high annual growth rate, measured using gross domestic product (GDP). • Growth may be taking place across a wide variety of economic sectors, including services as well as manufacturing exports. • The BRIC and MINT nations are important emerging economies. Emerging economies The BRIC group • Jim O’Neill coined the phrase ‘BRIC’ in 2001: Brazil, Russia, India and China. • Significant emerging economies: in the early noughties, all were showing high GDP growth of around 10% per annum (or higher in the case of China). • All four countries have large populations, with India and China in excess of 1 billion people each. • India and Brazil enjoy the demographic dividend of a large working population made up of young adults with relatively fewer dependent children. • All four countries have global cultural and/or political influence. Emerging economies BRICS with an added ‘S’ • The four BRIC countries have held annual summits since 2009. • In April 2011, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India and China were joined by South Africa (the world’s 12th largest emerging economy). • China had argued for South Africa’s inclusion at the meeting as an African representative . • Their 2013 summit focus was the foundation of a BRICS Development Bank to offer financial assistance to developing countries. Emerging economies The MINT group • In 2014, Jim O’Neill focused his attention on four more emerging economies: Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey. • Nigeria is a major oil exporter. • Mexico belongs to NAFTA and the OECD, two important multi-governmental organisations. • Indonesia has been a major beneficiary of global shift and the off-shoring of manufacturing by developed countries (it also has the world’s fourth largest population). • Turkey is a geopolitically important country which some people view as a ‘bridge’ nation between the west and the Islamic world. Emerging economies MINT statistics Mexico Indonesia Nigeria Turkey GDP growth rate 2010–13 (%) 3.4 6.0 6.8 5.9 Population (millions) 118 238 174 74 GDP per capita ($US) 11,200 3,500 2,700 10,700 Mexico and Turkey have a per capita GDP that is comfortably middle class Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey grew faster than India and Brazil in 2014 Emerging economies Growth trends The BRIC and MINT nations are outperforming the developed world Global growth was interrupted by the ‘credit crunch’ in 2008 Emerging economies Controversial countries? Economic growth • China is not a democracy. • Nigeria and Indonesia have both struggled with state corruption • The development process Political progress Turkey, China and Russia have poor human rights records. • Jim O’Neill believes strong economic growth can be achieved without political reforms. This contradicts what many students have been taught about the development process. Emerging economies Global groupings There are other ‘middle income’ global groupings used by geographers to analyse world development. These overlap with the BRIC and MINT groups. Newly industrialised countries have a high growth rate for manufacturing exports Tiger economies have had high growth rates in the past, e.g. South Korea and Ireland OPEC countries have gained wealth from oil and petrodollar earnings Middle-income countries have a per capita GNI of US$1,000 to US$12,000 Emerging economies Global groups Can you find or plot a location on the chart for: Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa, Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey? Emerging economies What future for the BRIC nations? High growth •China continues to grow at around 7% per annum (although this is half what it achieved in 2007). •Around half a billion Chinese people have escaped poverty. •Many long-term challenges remain, including an ageing population, lack of democracy and potential resource shortages. Medium growth •Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 has damaged its relationship with European neighbours. •However, good relations with China provide Russia with a market for oil and gas well into the future •Brazil faces an uncertain future, with widespread unrest in 2013–14. Low growth •Growth in India has slowed down in recent years. •Some people view this as a political failure and say the government has not done enough to encourage foreign investment. •Half a billion people in India still live in poverty. There is much that still needs to be done.