Peter Nedergaard:
ØMU og eurozonekrisen
18. august 2014
Dagsorden:
1) Hvad er eurozonekrisen?
2) Udslagene
3) Løsningsinitiativerne
4) Forklaringerne
4) Fremtidsperspektiverne
1
Eurozonekrisen
En gælds- og underskudskrise i eurozonen
- Udløst af subprimekrisen/ Lehman Brothers
krak
- Men det var kun den udløsende faktor
- Krisen var kommer senere alligevel
Market failures eller government failures?
2
Indholdet af eurozonekrisen
- Store underskud i visse lande pga. offentligt
overforbrug eller manglende skatteopkrævning
Tegn:
- Boligboble
- Forbrugsfest
Konsekvenser:
- Massearbejdsløshed
- Lav økonomisk vækst
3
Demonstrationer
4
I begyndelsen stor forvirring
5
Finanspagten
1. Intergovernmental aftale – med institutionel EU-back
up
2. Skærpelse af Vækst- og stabilitetspagten (QMV for
sanktioner)
3. Finanspagten: QMV for at hindre sanktioner
4. Max. 3 pct. konjunkturbetinget underskud
5. Max. 0,5 pct. strukturelt underskud
(ordoliberalismen)
6
The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis
Time at agreement
Initiative
Purpose
of the initiative at
Fora of decision-
Form of initiative
Obstacles
Temporary facility
No bail-out clause
making
the EU level
2010
European Financial
Loan to member
Standing Facility
states
European Council
in TFEU (Article
(EFSF)
2011
Euro Plus Pact
123)
Increase
European Council
competitiveness
Intergovernmental
The UK, the
agreement
Czech Republic,
Sweden and
Hungary
abstained
2011
2011
European Semester
Six Pack
Monitor national
European
Supranational EU
budgets
Commission
law
Correction of
European
Supranational EU
macro-economic
Commission
law
imbalances and
sanctions
7
The EU Replies to the Euro Crisis
2011
Buy government bonds Lower interest rates ECB
Market intervention German
in euro crisis
Constitutional
countries
Court might
declare plans
illegal (cf. Article
123 in TFEU)
2012
European Stability
Loan to member
Mechanism (ESM)
states
European Council
Intergovernmental
The UK, the
institution
Czech Republic,
Sweden and
Hungary
abstained
2012
Fiscal Compact
Fiscal discipline
European Council
Intergovernmental
The UK and the
treaty
Czech Republic
abstained
2013
2013
Two Pack
Banking Union
Surveillance
European
Supranational EU
mechanisms
Commission
law
Banking supervisory European
ECB supervisory
Some non-euro
authority
body
countries will
Commission
abstain (e.g. the
8
UK and Sweden)
Teoretiske forklaringer på eurozonekrisen
Euro crisis Cause of the political initiatives for the solution to the Solution to the euro crisis
Theory
Neo-functionalism
euro crisis
The proposals for closer economic integration and
The Fiscal Compact and further tightening of EMU
coordination did not come until some time into the
thereby complete the spill-over process and eliminate
crisis in 2011, when there was an urgent need to ease the initial design flaw.
the pressure on the interest rates in crisis countries.
Intergovernmentalism
As the leader of the EU Germany accepted the
Euro crisis gives Germany an incentive to assume the
establishment of EMU to ensure a stable EU, which
role of hegemon, but a solution requires other EU
is a German interest. It has been an active leader
member states to agree to Germany playing this role.
from 2011 and onwards, when the euro crisis began
to affect important German economic and political
interests.
Ordo-liberalism
Germany assesses the 2011 situation and concludes
The decision-makers of the euro countries adjust
that the EMU needs a dose of ordo-liberalism in the
institutions as well as their way of thinking in
form of monetary stability, zero-tolerance towards
accordance with the German model. Ordo-liberalism
public deficits and effective sanctions embedded in a
assumes complete ideological hegemony and is
form of economic constitution.
internalised at the decision-making level in the9 euro
area.
Prognoser angående en permanent
løsning på eurozonekrisen
Prognoses Prognosis regarding the solution to the euro crisis: positive or negative?
Theory
Neo-functionalism
Positive: Once the EU has corrected the design flaws of the EMU through
tightened rules, the euro crisis will be solved.
Intergovernmentalis Positive/ negative: The other euro countries have to accept the hegemon
m
role of Germany and the German population has to accept the costs of
playing the role of the leader.
Ordo-liberalism
Negative: Ideology and institutions are not easily changed into an ordoliberal model.
10
Faldende tilslutning til det europæiske
projekt
11
Mistillid til nationale politske
ledere (undtagen Merkel)
12
Mistillid til hinanden?
13
Opsamling
•EU har betalt en høj pris for ikke at centralisere den
økonomisk-politiske beslutningstagen
1.I første omgang så der ikke ud til at være nogen pris at betale
2.Kommissionen var samtidig tøvende med at tilslutte sig den
funktionalistiske argumentation
3.Kommissionen fra 2010: Gennemgang af finanslove om foråret,
før de vedtages om efteråret + europagten i 2011: Offentlige
lønninger, pensioner, produktivitet, konkurrenceevne.
4.Kommissionen styrer de factor finanspolitikken i Grækenland
5.Finanspagten
14