Anticipating and matching demand
and supply of skills in ETF partner
countries
Lizzi Feiler, labour market specialist
European Training Foundation
Content
• The knowledge continuum:
forecasting is not enough
• The challenges
• ETF innovation and learning project
2011-2013: anticipation and matching in
transition and developing countries
- Project outcome 2012
- Key findings from stock taking
- Planned activities 2013
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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The knowledge continuum:
a coherent approach to anticipation and
matching
3 basic functions of anticipation and matching:
Knowledge
creation, based on
evidence: analysis
of present and past
data, future trends
Knowledge
mediation:
dissemination to
reach the actors
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
Knowledge
application:
implementation of
anticipation and
matching policies
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The challenges
• Labour market shocks led to high youth unemployment
• Weak labour market information systems
• Transition economies experience rapid change of skills demands
because of shifts from agriculture and manufacturing to
services, privatisation and foreign direct investment
• The future is uncertain…. there are also external factors
• Dominance of micro and small enterprises and a large informal
economy create additional challenges
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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The challenges
…since it is a „mission impossible“ to achieve quick
fixes of current skills mismatches with education
reforms, anticipation of future skills needs is
requested
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Project outcome 2012
Stocktaking of current practices:
10 country
reports
Synthesis
reports
Specific
conditions in
transition
economies and
development
countries
How to measure
mismatch:
a comparison of
methods and
interpetations
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Exploring current and future demands
– what countries do (examples)
Time horizon 
Levels 
short-term
(0-1 year)
Micro-level
(people,
enterprises)
• HR: online survey of SMEs
• HR: transition survey of youth (1x)
• EGY: tracer study;
• EGY: Analysis of vacancies (monthly)
• MOL: PES transition survey;
• UA: ETF transition study;
Meso-level
(sectors,
regions,)
• ME: PES and employers’ federation:
employer surveys
• EGY: PROSPECT method at local level
• MOL, ME, HR PES employer surveys
• TR: Skill’10 project combines needs
analysis, training and matching. (90% job
placement expected)
•UA: VET on demand of employers (90% job
placement expected)
Macro-level
(national,
systems level)
HR – Croatia, TR – Turkey, UA – Ukraine, KG - Kyrgyzstan
Mid-term
(1-5 years)
• HR: PES employer surveys
• HR: Sector analysis (14 sectors)
• EGY: sectoral employer surveys
• UA: sector skills studies: ICT sector (ETF), coal
mining (TACIS)
• EGY: 4-yr forecast of the national observatory
• HR: CES analysis and forecast of LM needs
• KG: enterprise survey with trend extrapolation
and multi-stakeholder surveys
• MOL: Survey of public and private
employers2011-2016
• UA: Employer surveys (PES, WB)
Conclusions and key findings
from stock taking
•
•
•
A robust database for the labour market and the E&T
system is a key pre-condition for valid anticipation and
effective matching
A mix of approaches and continuous methodological
improvement (but at the same time continuity and
consistency!) is needed
Credibility: combination of informal knowledge and
research findings. Publication of research is not enough to
convince decision makers
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Conclusions and key findings
from stock taking
•
•
•
•
Anticipation aims at shaping the future, hence needs to be
imbedded in a macroeconomic vision and strategy
Strong PES capacities are important for better matching
Active role of employers in anticipation and matching
(recruitment, work based learning, adaptation to change, …)
Micro and small enterprises might need specific support
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Planned activities 2012/2013
Elaborating a compendium of guides:
1. Skills Mismatch Analyses
will build on the project work in 2011 and enable users to choose the right
and most relevant methodology
2. Macro Level Anticipation
will test and adopt the Cedefop methodology on skills forecast in 1-2 ETF
pilot countries, taking into account the availability of data and resources
3. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Sector Level
will cover qualitative and quantitative sector based aspects of skills
demands analyses
4. Transition Studies
will look into methodologies and objectives of transition and tracer studies,
to track and follow individuals on the labour market
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Planned activities 2012/2013
5. Supply Analyses
will cover methodologies used for the assessment of capacity, efficiency
and relevance of training providers
6. Enterprise Surveys
will cover various types of enterprise surveys as a tool for qualitative and
quantitative skills needs assessment
7. Anticipation and Matching of Skills at Regional Level
will cover the key elements of sub-national demand analysis and specific
methodologies and approaches used at regional (e.g. local) level
8. Intermediary Agencies and Tools in Matching
will look into roles and modus operandi of intermediary bodies such as
PES or career guidance services in matching people´s skills with jobs
LFE, Sarajevo, 12.7.2012
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Lizzi Feiler
LFE@etf.europa.eu
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