Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Back to School Day, Sept. 24, 2010
Understanding Decision Making
Facilitating High-Quality Conversations
about Decision Situations
Opening session by
Professor Patrick S. Noonan
patrick_noonan@bus.emory.edu
Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Deepwater Horizon, Gulf of Mexico, April 2010
© 2003-2010 Patrick S. Noonan - Emory University
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Where am I coming from?
The Decision-Centric Worldview
The only way that individuals
can purposely exercise any
control over their lives, their
careers, or their surroundings
it through their decision
making.
-- Ralph Keeney
In a few hundred years, when the history of our
time will be written from a long-term
perspective, it is likely that the most important
event historians will see is not technology, not
the Internet, not e-commerce.
It is an unprecedented change in the human
condition. For the first time -- literally -substantial and rapidly growing numbers of
people have choices. For the first time, they
will have to manage themselves.
And society is totally unprepared for it.
-- Peter Drucker
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Decisions are “Fundamental Particles”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Mastering
decision-making
is easy…
…isn’t it?
© 2003-2010 Patrick S. Noonan - Emory University
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Discussion Question
• What are the biggest obstacles to highquality decision making…
– … to you as a consumer?
– … to you as a manager & leader?
– … to your organization?
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Decisions are Inescapable
• US President Herbert Hoover on vacation:
– “I’m tired of making decisions -- one after
another all day long.”
– “My view of Heaven is of a place where no
one ever has to make a decision.”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
… or Are They?
• Decision-making researcher Gary Klein to an NYC
Fire Department battalion commander:
– “Tell me about some difficult decisions you’ve made.”
• Commander:
– “I don’t make decisions.”
– “I don’t remember when I’ve ever made a decision.”
– “Commanders never make decisions.”
– Source: Gary Klein, Sources of Power, 1999
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Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
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Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Telling us to obey instinct
is like telling us to obey
"people." People say
different things: so do
instincts.
Our instincts are at
war… Each instinct, if
you listen to it, will claim
to be gratified at the
expense of the rest.
-- C. S. Lewis
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Going with the Gut
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
This Slide is Brought to you by... the Letter K
• In a typical sample of text in the English
language, is it more likely that a word (of
three or more letters):
– starts with the letter K?
or
– has K is its third letter?
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Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
The Beijing Questions
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
The Pentagon Questions
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Risk Estimation Questions
• Which cause of death is the more common
in the US?
– Diabetes
– Tornado
– Car accident
– Shark
or
or
or
or
homicide
lightning
stomach cancer
items falling from airplanes
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Level of Confidence
• Example question: Tourmaline is...
– A) a kind of cloth, or
– B) a precious stone
• My answer is:
– A) or B)
• The probability that my answer is correct is:
– .50 .55 .60 .65 .70 .75 .80 .85 .90 .95 1.00
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Quantity Estimation
• Suppose you could fold a piece of paper in
half, again and again and again.
• After 100 folds, how thick will it be?
– My best guess is that the paper will be
_________ thick.
– I am 90 percent sure that the correct answer
lies between _________ and __________ .
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Some Heuristics… and Resulting Biases
• ease of recall, imaginability
• presumed associations
• Availability
• Anchoring & Adjustment
• status quo bias: insufficient
adjustment of anchor
• overconfidence
• excessive influence of regret
• stereotyping (pattern matching)
• Representativeness
– insensitivity to base rates
– insensitivity to sample size
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
St. Louis’ Gateway Arch: Wider or Taller?
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
The Arch Fits Perfectly into a Square
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Doh! Being Smart Doesn’t Help…
… and It Might Even Hurt
• Edward de Bono:
(“Thinking in America… the Lost Art,” Critical Intelligence, 1994)
– The “intelligence trap”
– A highly intelligent person will take a point of view...
and then use that intelligence to defend it.
– Many excellent minds are trapped in poor ideas
because they can defend them well.
• See also: “The Dunning-Kruger Effect”
© 2003-2010 Patrick S. Noonan - Emory University
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
High Points in the Art of Prediction
“This ‘telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of communication. The device is
inherently of no value to us.”
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876
“The wireless music box [radio] has no imaginable commercial -- David Sarnoff, US radio pioneer,
value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in
1921
particular?”
“But what… is it good for?”
-- IBM engineer, 1968, on the
microchip
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their
-- Ken Olson, President, Chairman &
home.”
Founder of DEC, 1977
“Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high
-- Irving Fisher, Yale Prof. of Economics,
plateau.”
1921
“A severe depression…is outside the range of probability.”
-- Harvard Economic Society, Nov. 1929
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High Points… continued
“Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?”
-- H.M.Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927
“Everything that can be invented has been invented.”
-- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, US
Patent Office, 1899 [disputed]
-- Pierre Pachet, Professor of
Physiology, , 1872
“Pasteur’s theory of germs is ridiculous fiction.”
“Heavier than air flying machines are impossible.”
-- Lord Kelvin, c. 1895
“No flying machine will ever fly from New York to Paris.”
-- Orville Wright, co-inventor of
airplane.
“Man will not fly for 50 years.” [1901]
“Prof. Goddard does not know the relation between action
-- 1921 New York Times editorial about
and reaction and the need to have something better than a
rocket pioneer Robert Goddard’s
vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the basic
work
knowledge ladled out daily in high schools.”
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Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
High Points… continued
“Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value.”
-- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor,
École Superieure de Guerre, c.
1904
“That idea is so damned nonsensical & impossible that I’m
willing to stand on the bridge of a battle-ship while that
nitwit tries to hit it from the air!”
-- Newton Baker, US Sec. of War, 1921
(on Gen. Billy Mitchell’s claim
that airplanes could sink
battleships by dropping bombs
on them)
“They couldn’t hit an elephant at this dist- ...”
-- Last words, Union Army Gen. John
Sedgwick (Battle of Spotsylvania,
1864)
“The radio craze will die out in time.”
-- Thomas Edison, 1922
"640k of memory ought to be enough for anybody.”
-- Bill Gates
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
January 28, 1986 – Challenger’s Last Flight
Before
After
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
“What are some limits on my intuition?”
• Experiments reveal important insights about the mental
operating system (OS) of humans
• Intuition & expertise have important roles…
– …but also some limitations.
• The human OS displays systematic weaknesses…
– … but that’s actually good news!
The brain is a machine assembled to survive.
-- Edward O. Wilson
This view of mind suggests that the liberal arts are those modes
of reasoning needed in civilized society that are not innate
because they had no survival value on the savanna.
-- David S. Moore
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
The Central Questions of
Decision & Information Analysis
To think is easy.
To act is hard.
But the hardest
thing in the world is
to act in accordance
with your thinking.
-- Goethe
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
What DIA seems to be about
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
What DIA actually is about
 “The objective of decision analysis is to
facilitate a high-quality conversation about a
decision situation.”
[Prof. Ron Howard, Stanford University]
 “The art of management is making meaningful
generalizations from inadequate facts.”
[Stanley Teele, former Dean of the Harvard Business School]
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Most Decision Makers need some Therapy
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
The Decision Quality Chain
“What do I need for a great decision?”
 Source:
Matheson &
Matheson
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Russo & Schoemaker’s “Decision Traps”
• Most common organizational decision-making dysfunctions:
1. Plunging In
2. Frame Blindness
3. Lack of Frame Control
4. Overconfidence
 Source: Decision Traps,
Russo & Schoemaker (1989)
5. Shortsighted Shortcuts
6. Shooting from the Hip
7. Group Failure
8. Fooling oneself about Feedback
9. Not Keeping Track
10. Failure to Audit the Decision Process
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Decision Trap #1: Plunging In
• Behavior:
– Starting the analysis & decision making before thinking
about the objectives, the context and the most
appropriate decision process
• Consequence:
– Inefficient decision making, often sloppy and
misdirected
• Solution:
– Devote careful thought to the metadecisions first.
 Source: Decision Traps, Russo & Schoemaker (1989)
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The Metadecisions: “How Should I Decide?”
• There are very important decisions you can
make about the decision processes you use
• Higher-order decisions make you think about
the nature of what you’re trying to decide
• Examples:
– What’s the main difficulty in this issue?
– In general, how should decisions like this one be made (participants, style,
time allotted, etc.)?
– Is this decision linked to others, i.e. does it materially affect other decisions,
or is it affected by others?
 Source: Decision Traps, Russo & Schoemaker (1989)
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More Metadecision Questions
• Must this decision actually be made?
• Should I make the decision along,
with others, or delegate it?
• How much time should it take?
• Must the decision be made now?
If not, when should it be made?
• Are the constraints and deadlines
real?
• Should I move sequentially in the
process, or back and forth?
The most basic of all decisions is
who shall decide.
This is easily lost sight of in
discussions that proceed directly
to the merits of particular issues,
as if they could be judged from a
unitary, of God's eye, viewpoint.
A more human perspective must
recognize the respective
advantages and disadvantages of
different decision making
processes, include their widely
varying costs of knowledge,
which is a central consideration
often overlooked in analyses
which proceed as if knowledge
were either complete, costless, or
of a 'given' quantity.
-- Thomas Sowell
 Source: Decision Traps, Russo & Schoemaker (1989)
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Still More Metadecision Questions
• What’s a good balance of effort, i.e. where should
I concentrate my time & resources?
• Is there some feedback or history from related
experiences to draw upon?
• What are my own capabilities, biases &
limitations in dealing with an issue like this?
• Do I need to bring in others’ points of view?
What other points of view might be helpful?
• How would an admired, more experienced
decision maker handle this issue?
 Source: Decision Traps, Russo & Schoemaker (1989)
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Discussion Questions
• How much thinking or discussion does
your organization apply to the metadecisions, the decisions about how to
decide?
• How would you describe your
organization’s typical “balance of effort”
in tackling important decisions?
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Back to School Day, Sept. 2010
“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
“What’s the appropriate balance of effort?”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
“Analysis Paralysis” vs. “Extinction by Instinct”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Decision Tree: An Analytical Journey
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
The Road Ahead
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“What are the elements of the decision?”
Decisions & Alternatives
Uncertainties & Outcomes
Consequences
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From Insight to Action
“How do I move from issues to implementation?”
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The Generic Modeling Process
“How should I proceed? What are the steps?”
Industry is a better horse to
ride than genius.
-- Walter Lippman
Success doesn't "happen." It is
organized, preempted, captured, by
consecrated common sense.
-- Frances E. Willard
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The Process must be Robust
When you’re going through Hell…
keep going.
-- Sir Winston Churchill
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Always Look for Good Shortcuts!
“Have we done enough to make a good
choice?”
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Real World vs. Model World
All models are wrong,
but some are useful.
-- George Box
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Step One: Defining the Problem
“What are the central issues and boundaries?”
The greatest challenge to any
thinker is stating the problem in
a way that will allow a solution.
-- Bertrand Russell
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Consulting Best Practices: Problem Solving
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Typical: Alternative-Focused Thinking
 Adapted from Ralph Keeney, Value Focused Thinking
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Better: Value-Focused Thinking
 Adapted from Ralph Keeney, Value Focused Thinking
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The Value of Value-Focused Thinking
Reasonable men adapt themselves to
the world. Unreasonable men adapt
the world to themselves.
That’s why all progress depends on
unreasonable men.
--George Bernard Shaw
A wise man will make more
opportunities than he finds.
-- Sir Francis Bacon
The people who get on in this world
are the people who get up and look
for the circumstances they want, and
if they can't find them, make them.
-- George Bernard Shaw
 Adapted from Ralph Keeney, Value Focused Thinking
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Starting with Endpoints
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Identifying & Structuring Objectives
“What do we want? Why do we want it?”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
“What metrics should we use?”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
“What drives level of preference?”
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
“How can we value and compare
uncertainties?”
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“What is our appetite for
– or aversion to – risk?”
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Risk is Variability
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Step Two: Structuring the Problem
“What are the elements?
And how do they fit together?”
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Step Three: Analyze… and “Choose”
“What does a preliminary analysis suggest?”
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Here’s Where this Stuff Lives!
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Step Four: Testing the Analysis
“Which of my assumptions are most crucial?”
It is fashionable today to assume that any figures about the future are better than none.
To produce figures about the unknown, the current method is to make a guess about something or
other -- called an "assumption" -- and to derive an estimate from it by subtle calculation. The
estimate is then presented as the result of scientific reasoning, something far superior to mere
guesswork.
This is a pernicious practice that can only lead to the most colossal planning errors, because it
offers a bogus answer where, in fact, an entrepreneurial judgment is required.
-- E F. Schumacher
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Everything You Know is Wrong…
… Fortunately, not Everything Matters
If a man hasn't discovered
something that he would die for,
he isn't fit to live.
-- Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.
I would never die for my beliefs
because I might be wrong.
-- Bertrand Russell
Round numbers are always false
-- Samuel Johnson
Point estimates are for suckers.
-- Patrick Noonan
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“What can I learn from sensitivity analysis?”
• How confident are we about our preliminary recommendation?
• If we’re a little off in our estimates, what difference does it
make to our decision strategy?
• How far wrong could we be on our assumptions before our
optimal strategy is no longer the best?
• What other decision strategies might be optimal, under slightly
different values of the problem parameters, or different
structural assumptions?
• Within the members of our team, we can’t get complete
agreement on some assumptions. Does it matter?
• We have limited time and money available for refining our
assumptions. Which ones should have top priority for getting
our managerial attention?
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Muddling Thinking about Quantification
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Increasing Depth of Sensitivity Analysis
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“How can we sharpen our beliefs using data?”
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The Process of Data Analysis
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The Problem with Numbers
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Numbers are Very Powerful!
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Closing the Deal: From Insight to Action
“What should I do, how do I get it done?”
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Selling a Recommendation =
“What do the Gate-Keepers Need?”
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Trap #10: Failure to Audit the Decision Process
“What Worked, What Didn’t Work?”
• Behavior:
– No organized approach to understanding your decision
making
• Consequence:
– Risk of falling into any or all of the aforementioned
decision traps
• Solution:
– Routine, explicit decision evaluation process.
 Source: Decision Traps, Russo & Schoemaker (1989)
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Review: What should we do with “decisions
worth thinking about”?
 “The objective of decision analysis is to
facilitate a high-quality conversation about
a decision situation.”
[Prof. Ron Howard, Stanford University]
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“Facilitating High-quality Conversations about Decision Situations”
Coming March 2011
from McGraw-Hill/Irwin
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