Nagorno-Karabahk War
Timeline w/ Graphics
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND & BUILD UP – THE WAR (1992-1994) – PEACE PROCESS
(incomplete)
.
*1988 marks the beginning of violence, full fledged war began in 1992
TIMELINE – Background History and Build Up to 1992 War
HISTORICAL BACKGROUND:
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1828 - Russian Tsar created an Armenian province (excluding Karabakh).
1917 – Bolshevik Revolution - Az and Arm both become independent in 1918, both claim Karabakh*1920 - Russia-Soviet Empire reestablished control.
– Armenians lobbied the Soviet empire to join Karabakh to Armenia, Stalin disagreed (Soviet economic system and Turkish
relations played a part).
1923 – the region became the Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Oblast, part of Az with a degree of self rule.
– 1936 Soviet Constitution continued the designation.
BUILD UP – Demise of Russia surfaces tensions, maneuverings begin.
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1985 – Gorbachev’s glasnost “unleashed long-suppressed hostility” btwn Az and Arm.
– 1987, again the Armenians petitioned for the transfer of the region to Arm.
– Reports of evictions spark protests…. Protests turn violent…. It escalates. There’s political turmoil. Refugees start going to
their perspective countries (w/ Azeris also going to Iran or Nakhicheva (Azeri exclave to the west of Armenia).
1988 - in a bold maneuver, the Karabakh government “succeeds” from Azerbaijan, technically against the Soviet Constitution.
WAR OFFICIALLY STARTS.
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Violence and dual-exodus worsens,
Late 1988 - Moscow sends in Interior Ministry troops to impose martial law in some areas.
– Reports of evictions spark protests…. Protests turn violent…. It escalates. There’s political turmoil. Refugees start going to
their perspective countries (w/ Azeris also going to Iran or Nakhicheva (Azeri exclave to the west of Armenia).
– Army Troops follow in May 1989.
Dec 1989 – Armenian Supreme Soviet declared Karabakh a part of Armenia.
– Az Pop Front (PF) began rail blockade of Armenia and Karabakh – restricting fuel and food.
– Anit-Armenian violence occurred in Bak and Sumgait.
– Soviet Army occupation of Baku begins. Many Azeri’s day.
Sep 1991 – Following the Moscow Coup Attempt – Moscow declared it would no longer support Azerbaijani military action in
Karabakh.
Nov 1991 – Azerbaijan nullifies Karabakh’s autonomous status and declares direct rule on the region.
Dec 1991 – DEMISE OF THE SOVIET UNIION, withdrawal of Soviet troops from Karabakh further endowing Karabakh forces with
arms.
Jan 1992 – The Nagorno Karabakh Republic declares independence.
– Note: The independence of NKR has not been recognized by any country, including Armenia.
Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994)
FULL FLEDGED WAR PHASE I: Karabakh and
Armenian Early Offensive
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Jan 1992 – Flush with new arms, Karabakh
forces launch an KarabakhArmenian early offensive, war
begins.
– Feb 1992, Armenians overan Khojlay, 2nd
largest Azeri town. Azeri outrage leads
to ouster of the Az president in March.
– In the midst of turmoil in Baku,
Armenians take Shusha, the last Azeri
town in Karabakh, provockiing another
political crisis and government ouster in
Baku. Which Armenia takes advantage
of by launching an offensive in
Nakhichevan.
– Offensive completes with the Karabakh
and Armenian forces securing the
Lachin corridor.
Red Borders:
represent the
historical N-K
boundaries.
Khojlay
Stepanakert
Lachin Corridor
Shusa/Suiza
May 1992 – With Baku in the poiltical turmoil
again, Armenia launches separate
offensive against Nakhichevan
(Azeri exclave), 30,000 were displaced,
International Attention is called to the event.
– Turkey and Iran denounce, U.S. issues a
strong statement.
– NATO, EC, CSCE declare violations of
territorial integrity and use of force as
unacceptable.
Autonomous Republic of Nakhchivan
– Exclave of Azerbaijan
Shaded areas
represent area
taken over at one
point (some still
held) in the later
years of the 19881994 War
Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994)
THE WAR PHASE II: Azerbaijan has trouble
recapturing anything, Armenians surge
out and capture territory. Armenian
army supports with direct fire across
border, arms, etc.
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Artsvachsen
Khojlay
Jun 1992 –an Azerbaijan Offensive to reclaim
Karabakh begins. Armenians launch a
Karabakh (and Armenia) counteroffensive.
– AZERBAIJAN OFFENSIVE:
–
Stepanakert
Kelbajar
LITTLE GAINS
Aug 1992, Azeris capture Artsvachsen
(minute little Northern pocket of
sovereign Armenia within Azerbaijan)
and attempts to recapture Lachin and
Susha.
Aghdam
Shusa/Suiza
– ARMENIAN OFFENSIVE:
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TERRITORY BTWN NK and ARMENIA
TAKEN, FORCES PUSH EAST INTO AZERI
PROPER.
By March 1993, Armenians have seized
Kelbajar and a swath of the Azeri
territory between NK and Armenia
• In Kelbajar, Armenian miltiary
asissts across the border with
heavy weaponry and barrages.
Thousands of Azeri’s are
displaced.
Armenians then attacked Fizuli to the
SE of NK and areas south of Karabakh,
claiming they were responding to an
Azeri build up.
Lachin
Fizuli
Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994)
THE WAR PHASE III: Armenian supported
Karabakh forces are grabbing land in the
face of growing international pressure.
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Khojlay
June 1993 – As another Azeri president was deposed,
Karabakh forces launch an Eastern
Offensive, seizing Mardakert and Aghdam.
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Artsvachsen
Strong condemnation as their was little
grounds for “self defense”.
Aug 1993, Armenians took Fizuli and territory
to the Southwest of NK, next to the Iranian
border.
Moved South to seize Jebrail after Azeris fled
in the face of assaults. Armenians threatened
Kubatli (abandoned), Zangelan, and Goradiz.
In the face of international condemnation
and warnings, Armenians raze Goradiz and
attack Zangelan, even reaching the Aras River
and taking a 40km stretch of the Iranian-Azeri
frontier.
It drove 30K Azeris into Iran.
Oct 1993, Zangelan fell
July 1993 International reactions over KarabakhArmenian Offensive
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Iran denounced and said it could not remain
indifferent, Iran reinforced border with
Iranian troops and IRG.
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Turkey issued warnings and reinforced the
border, and placed troops on alert.
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Russia demanded that military action cease,
noting that the Armenians attacks in
Karabakh were unjustified as there was no
threat posed. Also moved troops to Azeri
border.
Stepanakert
Kelbajar
Shusa/Suiza
Fizuli
Jebrail
Zangelan
Goradiz
Timeline – Full Fledged War (1992-1994)
Subway Bombing in
Baku, Armenian
militants blamed.
THE WAR PHASE IV: Armenian defends new
territory against the first determined
Azerbaijan offensive. Ceasefire stops it at
the origninal Eastern border, but swath of
Western azeri territory is now controlled
by Armenians and cleansed of many
Azeris.
Nov 1993 – new Azeri President Haidar Aliyev criticizes
army, sacks commanders, and called on veterans to
man the army.
Khojlay
Kelbajar
Aghdam
Dec 1993 – New Azeri Offensive – Regains territory
-Chased Karabakh forces from mountains
around Aghdam.
-heights in the Mardakert region.
-Unable to reclaim Fizuli.
-Early 1994, Azeris regained Goradiz and
positions north of Kelbajar, suffering heavy
losses.
- Baku blames Armenians for subway bombing
in March.
-Armenians reported Azeri air raids on
Stepanakert and along the border, heated
action created 50,000 new Azeri refugees.
May 1994 –
B B
B
Stepanakert
B
Lachin
Jebrail
Fizuli
CEASE FIRE
Zangelan
Timeline – Peace Process
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Since the beginning, CSCE had been calling for a peace conference in Belarus with “Minsk Group” countries. It was not held.
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Apr 1993 - UN SC RES 822 – demanded:
– Immediate cessation of hostilities
– Withdrawal of occupying forces from Kelbajar and other areas.
– Resumption of CSCE negotiations
– Apr 1993, another UN SC RES (85):
• Condems Armenian seizure of Aghdam and other areas.
• Urges Armenia to influence Karabakh to comply.
– May 1993, US, Russia, Turkey proposed an implementation plan, but parties did not agree.
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Aug 1993 – UN SC demanded withdrawal of occupying forces from Fizuli, Kelbajar, and Aghdam. Called of Armenia to use it’s
“unique influence”.
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Oct 1993 – UN SC RES 874 called for perm cease-fire, withdrawal timeline, and removal of communication and transportation
obstacles.
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Nov 1993 – Minsk Group asserts that a CSCE force would have to be supervised by the CSCE and open to participation by all CSCE
members.
– The Minks Group did not endorse talks sponsored by Russia or Russia’s offer of troops to separate the combatants.
– Called for the withdrawal from territory seized since Oct 21.
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Nov 1993 – Azerbaijan rejects the measures for failing to mention Lachin and Shusha and Karabakh Azeri rights
– It also rejects Russian troops.
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Nov 1993 – Armenia and Karabakh accept a Russian troop offer and CSCE timetable.
– Meanwhile another UN SC RES (884) is passed, expressing alarm at continued hostilities, UN tries to tell Armenia to
seriously stop.
– RESEARCH ENDS HERE
RESEARCH ENDS HERE – SUMMARY &
THOUGHTS
REMAINING RESEARCH:
-Exact array of forces (# troops, weapons, technology), -then and now.
-Azeribaijan military: Flush with oil-gas profits and with a chip on it’s shoulder,
Azerbaijan has since quadrupuled its military spending, and will have more troops,
technology, and confidence when the NK hostilities resume.
THOUGHTS:
-Where we’re wrong: Shutting down the Lachin corridor is really hard for the
Azeris. If they can continuously bomb it (need to check Azeri AF capability), it could
be an effective blockade. But to get to the corridor and control it, you have to fight
through a lot of Armenian-Karabahk cities.
-Hard to ascertain the arms of the Karabakh Forces: In the NK War the Armenia
and the NK Armenians had arms left by the Soviet military. The Karabakh forces
were also supplied by Armenia. One would presume Armenia is sending Karabakh
weaponry in the face of Azerbaijan’s growing military might. But Armenia is poor.
And cannot keep its own military on par with Azerbaijan’s.