The
Author Brand
Opportunity
Digital Book World
January 14, 2014
Codex-Group © 2014 Proprietary and Confidential
Peter Hildick-Smith
Codex-Group LLC
16 W. 16th St.
NY, NY 10011
212-255-0405
hildick-smith@codexgroup.net
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Three Pillars of Initial New Book Sales
Is the Book Idea
Interesting
Enough to Buy?
1
Conversion
Do I Know
the Book
Exists?
Buyer
Target
Discovery
Availability
3
Is the Book Available
to Buy Whenever,
However I Want It?
Discovery + Conversion + Availability = New Book Sales
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2
Three Pillars of Initial New Book Sales
Is the Book Idea
Interesting
Enough to Buy?
Author “Brand”
Topic/Message
Conversion
Reader
Target
Discovery
Availability
Book Conversion Driven Most by Author “Brand” and Book Topic/Message.
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“Brand Author” Defined
Adult Frequent
Book Buyers
500,000 Fans
1% of Frequent Book Buyers
50,000,000
A “Brand Author” = 500,000 Fans or More.
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Why
Author Brands
Matter
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Brand Author Bestseller Placement – 1/19/2014
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Brand
Bestseller List Dominated by “Brand” Authors.
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New Book Purchase Decision Factor Share: Last Book Bought – 11/2013
When browsing for new books, which of the following factors influenced your decision most when choosing [your last book bought]? (pick one)
Most Influential Purchase Decision Factor: Last Book Bought
100%
90%
80%
Book
Bought Last
70%
60%
50%
Favorite Author/Series
29%
Book Topic/Message
24%
Personal
Recommendations
13%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
All Books Bought Last
“Favorite Author or Series” Single Biggest Book Purchase Decision Factor.
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New Book Purchase Decision Factor Share: Last Book Bought – 11/2013
When browsing for new books, which of the following factors influenced your decision most when choosing [your last book bought]? (pick one)
100%
Most Influential Purchase Decision Factor: Last Book Bought
90%
80%
Genre
Fiction
70%
Literary
Fiction
Narrative
Nonfiction
Utility
Nonfiction
60%
Favorite
50%
Author/Series
43%
17%
8%
32%
35%
32%
40%
30%
Topic/
Message
20%
19%
18%
11%
14%
15%
14%
Literary Fiction
Narrative Nonfiction
Utility Nonfiction
10%
Recommend
0%
Genre Fiction
“Favorite Author or Series” Dominant Factor in Fiction,
Major Potential Force in Narrative Nonfiction.
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Book Buyer’s Author Opinion BEFORE Discovery – 11/2013
BEFORE you first discovered [the book you bought last] -- what was your overall opinion of its author or series?
Author Rating BEFORE Book Discovery
100%
90%
Genre
Fiction
80%
Literary
Fiction
Narrative
Nonfiction
53%
42%
Utility
Nonfiction
70%
60%
Very Good/
Favorite50%
Author
62%
31%
40%
30%
20%
Not Familiar
10%
Author
20%
25%
33%
43%
0%
Genre Fiction
Literary Fiction
Narrative Nonfiction
Utility Nonfiction
“Brand” Authors Most Purchased in Fiction – Unknowns Often Avoided.
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Author Equity Brand Impact on Book Sales – Purchase Propensity – Fiction
45%
45%
15X
Author
“Fan”
40%
35%
30%
25%
20%
15%
Not Familiar
With Author
10%
5%
3%
0%
Favorite Author
Not Familiar Author
Author Brand Equity is Book Sales Multiplier!
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Author Equity Brand Impact on Book Sales – Initial 8 Week Print Unit Sales
July 14
2013
April 30
2013
250,000
228,116
500X
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
449
JK Rowling
Robert Galbraith
Author Brand Equity is Book Sales Multiplier!
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Author Fan Sales Contribution: % Book Purchase Demand From Author Fans
100%
Fan Contribution to Total Book Demand
90%
82%
80%
73%
70%
58%
54%
60%
55%
50%
40%
33%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Celebrity
Biography
Y
Undisputed T ruth
A W anted Man
Simple Dreams
Storyteller
Dust
Sycamore Row
Fan Contribution: Major Authors Depend on Fans for 50-80% of Sales.
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Retail Price Expectation: Impact of Author Brand Strength – 6/2013
How much do you normally expect to pay for a new or recently released book by (the author of the book you bought last) -- in each of the following formats?
BEFORE you first discovered [the book you bought last] -- what was your overall opinion of that author?
Thriller Authors
$21.00
+37%
$19.84
Hardcover
$18.36
$19.00
$17.00
$14.49
“Brand” Author
$15.00
$13.00
+66%
$11.00
Unknown Author
eBook
$9.00
$7.00
$9.36
$7.49
Hardcover: Thriller
$5.63
eBook: Thriller
$5.00
Not Familiar with Author Name
Very Good
One of My Favorites
Book Buyers Expect to Pay Significant Premium for Their Brand Authors.
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Author Fan Base vs. Initial 8 Week Unit Sales – Jodi Picoult
Initial 8
Week Units
Author
Equity
9.4%
April 2010
8.7%
March 2008
0%
2%
4%
105,000
April 2006
0.8%
July 2004
206,000
March 2008
5.7%
April 2006
251,000
April 2010
42,000
July 2004
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
400000
The Bigger The Fan Base – The Greater The Sales Potential.
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Making
Author Brands
Work
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Name Recognition Measurement – U.S. Past Month Book Buyers – 11/2013
Recognize
Name
Author Y
95%
John Grisham
95%
Linda
Ronstadt
Celebrity
Biography
Y
87%
66%
Patricia
Cornwell
53%
Jodi Picoult
34%
Lee Child
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100
%
A Famous Name Is Not Enough.
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Author Equity Brand Measurement – U.S. Past Month Book Buyers – 11/2013
Recognize
Name
% Book
Buyer Fans
Author Y
Mike95%
Tyson
John Grisham
John Grisham
95%
Linda
Ronstadt
87%
Linda
Ronstadt
66%
Patricia
Cornwell
53%
Jodi Picoult
0%
20%
40%
21%
4%
Patricia
Cornwell
8%
6%
Jodi Picoult
34%
Lee Child
1%
7%
Lee Child
60%
80%
100
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
%
Author Equity is Measurable – Fan Loyalty is The Key.
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Author Equity Matrix: Book Buyer Audience Strength
Author Audience Strength
Net Equity Score
% of all book shoppers
rated as author fan
35%
Lee Child
GROWTH FRANCHISE
7%
30%
Acquire/Grow
% Rating Author as Favorite
25%
John Grisham
DIAMOND
IN THE
ROUGH
21%
Patricia Cornwell
Stephen King
20%
Jodi Picoult
8%
6%
15%
Linda Ronstadt
10%
Fan
Loyalty
Manage
Fix
Author X
4%
0.6%
5%
DEVELOPING
0%
0%
Platform Size
MATURE FRANCHISE
20%
40%
Avoid
Author Y
1%
60%
80%
100%
% Familiar with Author
Invest in Author Brand Development.
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Author Fan Fulfillment: % of Author Fans Who Own/Plan to Buy Book
80%
% Author Fan (VG/Fav) Fulfillment
70%
Over Half of Fans Want Book
70%
Less Than Half of Fans Want Book
60%
48%
50%
Average: 45%
50%
41%
40%
30%
21%
20%
15%
16%
Self-Help
P
Self-Help
L
10%
0%
Self-Help P
Self-Help L
Simple Dreams
Sycamore Row
T he Storyteller
Dust
A W anted Man
Fan Fulfillment – Does the Book Connect with its Author’s Fans?
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“Brand Author” Fan Fulfillment Impact – Initial 8 Week Unit Sales
Prior
Self-Help
Title
Initial 8 Week Unit Sales*
700000
600000
- 467,000
units
500000
400000
705,000
Self-Help
P
15% Fan
Fulfillment
Prior
Self-Help
Title
Self-Help
16% Fan
L
Fulfillment
- 130,000
300000
200000
238,000
100000
223,000
units
93,000
0
Self-Help W
Self-Help P
-
Self-Help F
Self-Help L
Miss Your Fans – Miss Your Sales.
*Source: BookScan initial 8 week unit sales
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Author Brand Sales Impact
Greatest Impact
Author Acquisition
Fan Fulfillment – Topic & Message
Relative Sales
Impact
Price Premium
Category Expansion
Moderate Impact
Marketing
Multiple Author Brand Sales Growth Avenues.
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Author Brand Growth Opportunity
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Author Brand Growth Opportunity
FAN LOYALTY DRIVE SALES: Primary Sales Source
SALES MULTIPLIER: #1 Conversion-to-Sales Factor
PRICE PREMIUM: Loyal Fans Value Their Authors
CONSISTENT BOOK-to-BOOK GROWTH: Fan Fulfillment
PARTNER CHALLENGE: Author, Fan, Agent, Editor, Publisher
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