AA-010071-001 Western Balkans Investment Framework (WBIF) Infrastructure Project Facility – Technical Assistance 10 (IPF 10), - Infrastructures: Energy, Environment, Social, Transport and Digital Economy WB24-ALB-TRA-01 Closing Event 3 July 2024 AIC, Murriqan – Lezhe Section, ESIA and Preliminary Design Contents of the Presentation 1. Introduction to the Project 2. Outline of the Project 3. The project outputs 4. Next steps 1 1. Introduction to the Project Project Objective and Purpose WB24-ALB-TRA-01 Mediterranean Corridor (Routes 1 and 2): Adriatic-Ionian Road Corridor in Albania and Montenegro, Murriqan-Lezhë section ESIA and Preliminary Design The overall objective of the infrastructure project: • increase transport efficiency and improve traffic safety on Adriatic Ionian Road Corridor (Route 1 and Route 2) as part of TEN-T Core Network The specific objective of the infrastructure project • the construction of the Murriqan/Sukobin - Lezhë (Balldren) motorway (Section 1 of AIC) in Albania and to ensure its operational integration into the existing road network The purpose of the activities described in this ToR • provide the Beneficiary with the necessary support for the preparation of the technical documentation (ESIA and Preliminary Design) for Murriqan/Sukobin - Lezhë (Balldren) motorway section in compliance with the Albanian national legislation, the EU standards and the EBRD’s requirements to further develop the Detailed Design and Tender Documents and contract the construction works following the FIDIC-Red Book Conditions of Contract 2 1. Introduction to the Project Stakeholders Map – Steering Committee Beneficiary Lead IFI Ministries Municipalities • Ministry of Infrastructure & Energy • Albanian Roads Authority • EBRD • Ministry of European Integration • Ministry of Tourism & Environment • Ministry of Finance and Economy • Ministry of Europe and Foreign Affairs • Shkodra, • Lezhë, • Vau Dejes WBIF EUDelegation 3 1. Introduction to the Project The Assignment WB24-ALB-TRA-01 Mediterranean Corridor (Routes 1 and 2): Adriatic-Ionian Road Corridor in Albania and Montenegro, Murriqan-Lezhë section ESIA and Preliminary Design Approved by the SC of WBIF in Round 24 (June ….) Assigned by EC/DG-NEAR for execution of the services to PLANET – IPF10 TA services started on 15 December 2021 Original plan to complete the services: ……… Revised plan to complete the services: July 2024 4 1. Introduction to the Project The Team WBIF Beneficiary Ministry of Infrastructure & Energy Albanian Roads Authority Other Stakeholders IPF 10 Team Leader: Mario Ortner Transport Key Expert: Ioannis Papapanagiotou Sectoral Project Manager: Pepi Dimopoulou EBRD Project Manager: Iro Dimitriadou Technical Team Lead Highway Designer Highway/Interchange designers Lead Structural Engineer Structural Engineers Hydrology/Hydraulics Engineers Land Surveying Engineer Geotechnical Expert Hydrogeologist Expropriation Expert Other Experts Environmental & Social Team Transport/Traffic Expert Transport Economist International Environmental Expert Lead Environmental Expert Local Environmental Expert Biodiversity Expert Local Biodiversity Coordinator Lead Social Expert Local Social Expert Landscape Expert 5 2. Outline of the Project Location of Adriatic - Ionian Corridor A 1,500 km corridor, of which 315km in Albania 6 2. Outline of the Project PFS and Conceptual Design Carried out by IPF5 Implemented between 2017 and 2020 No-objection by EBRD in 2021 Selected alternative: 1B 7 2. Outline of the Project PFS and Conceptual Design The results of PFS The (Pre)Feasibility Study results, for the Albanian part of AIC, were as follows (for 5% social discount rate): ENPV = 2,304.9 mil EUR EIRR = 13.07% B/C ratio = 2.67 These are the CBA results for the implementation of AIC only in Albania and for the toll-free scenario, which yielded better results than all other tolled scenarios that were examined. The results were also positive for implementation of the entire AIC in both countries, Albania and Montenegro (ENPV = 3.89 bln EUR, ERR = 12.9%, B/C = 2.7) 8 2. Outline of the Project Overview of Project activities Activity 1: Inception Phase Activity 2: ESIA Task 1: Kick-off meeting, coordination and agreement with the key stakeholders Task 1: ESIA Scoping Task 1: Current status of the existing documentation Task 2: Review of the design framework and available information Task 2: Environmental surveys Task 2: Supporting field and desk studies for Preliminary Design stage Task 3: Current status of the existing documentation Task 3: ESIA drafting Task 3: Preliminary Design of the selected option Task 4: Communication with the Stakeholders Task 4: Local EIA Task 4: Preliminary Design for the highway alignment Task 5: Preparation of the Inception report Task 5: Final ESIA disclosure package Task 5: Cost estimate Activity 3: Preliminary Design Activity 4: CBA update Task 1: Cost-Benefit Analysis update Task 6: ESIA / EIA Public Disclosure Project management and coordination 9 2. Outline of the Project Overview of Project Outputs • Inception Report including review of existing documentation, draft options outline and detailed work plan • ESIA Scoping Report • Draft ESIA package • EIA Report • ESIA Report Activity 1: Inception Phase Activity 2: ESIA Quarterly progress reports Final report Activity 3: Preliminary Design • Preliminary Design including BoQ and cost estimate Activity 4: CBA update • CBA Update report 10 3. The Outputs of the Project Traffic Demand Forecasts Traffic Surveys Traffic Surveys during June 2022 along the Murriqan-Lezhe road network Automatic Traffic Counts using automatic devices and cameras (10 locations) Road Side Interviews to record Origin and Destination data (5 locations) Journey Time Surveys to record travel time measurements (~200Km) 11 3. The Outputs of the Project Traffic Demand Forecasts Traffic Model Development To represent existing traffic conditions. Base year model for 2022 Based on traffic surveys 2 vehicle types: Light and Heavy Coded Traffic Zones & Road Network To predict future transport demand and assess the impact of the new infrastructure Future years: 2030, 2040, 2050, 2060 for 2 scenarios: o Reference scenario: Future transport network without the new section Murriqan-Lezhe o With the project scenario: Future transport network considering the new motorway section Forecast of future transport demand based on: o Macroeconomics, population data and generated traffic • 43 Internal Traffic Zones (Albanian communes and municipalities of the study area) • 7 External Traffic Zones (other countries and rest of Albania) & 2 Special Zones (Port and Airport) 12 3. The Outputs of the Project Traffic Demand Forecasts Traffic Study Results Road network assignment results (2060, With the project scenario) S/N Section Total 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Start - IC1 Exit IC1 Entry IC1 IC1 - IC2 Exit IC2 Entry IC2 IC2 - IC3 Exit IC3 Entry IC3 IC3 - IC4 Exit IC4 Entry IC4 IC4 – IC5 Exit IC5 Entry IC5 IC5 - End 6,813 72 247 6,648 8,921 7,929 15,793 3,569 3,747 19,674 810 1,419 19,285 1,547 1,831 20,898 13 3. The Outputs of the Project Traffic Demand Forecasts Traffic Study Summary of Findings – Trends: VKM in million per year generated traffic ~ 6% of total demand Year 2030 2040 2050 2060 VKM for Light Vehicles (million per year) 126.35 146.79 161.25 173.16 VKM for Heavy Vehicles (million per year) 15.83 19.22 22.59 26.48 VKM for Generated Traffic (million per year) 9.04 10.40 11.21 11.97 % VKM of Generated Traffic Total VKM (million per year) 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 6.0% 151.22 176.41 195.05 211.61 14 3. The Outputs of the Project Traffic Demand Forecasts Traffic Study Summary of Findings - Level of Service analysis at IC Ramps To South To North To South To North DDHV (PCU) VR 3 3 3 88 DDHV (PCU) V12 307 331 304 306 Density (pc/km/ln) 2.4 2.6 4.7 5.4 Exit IC2 Exit IC2 Entry IC2 Entry IC2 To South To North To South To North 158 600 518 160 307 821 150 151 2.4 6.8 7.3 4.7 A A A A Exit IC3 Exit IC3 Entry IC3 Entry IC3 To South To North To South To North 64 691 696 86 734 1,301 669 731 6.1 10.9 12.7 8.7 A B B A Exit IC4 Exit IC4 Entry IC4 Entry IC4 To South To North To South To North 33 48 33 83 1,121 1,253 1,095 1,100 9.4 10.5 11.1 11.5 A B B B Exit IC5 Exit IC5 Entry IC5 Entry IC5 To South To North To South To North 169 91 115 164 1,249 1,205 1,110 1,118 10.5 10.1 11.8 12.3 B B B B IC Ramp Direction Exit IC1 Exit IC1 Entry IC1 Entry IC1 LOS A A A A 15 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Design characteristics Speed Design speed is 120 km/h. Cross sections The typical cross section of motorway generally follows category A cross section according to Albanian Road Design Manual (RrTPRr-2, 2015) and TEM Standards and Recommended Practice (2002), for design speed Vd=120 km/h. Pavements Flexible pavement structures is proposed in compliance with “AASHTO Guide for Design of Pavement Structures” (1993). Cross Section Pavement Structure 16 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Analysis of alternative variants and options Development of an improved alignment option Main criteria for optimization of the existing alignment (Conceptual design 2019): ❑ Technical Aspects: o improved alignment geometrical data; o existing irrigation networks; o existing local road networks and other utilities, etc. o starting point (Murriqan border), ending point (next AIC segment) o existing agricultural status and plots ❑ Environmental aspects: o existing protected areas; o flooding areas; o historical and cultural monuments; o high cuts/embankments, etc. ❑ Social aspects: o inhabited areas; o existing spatial plans; o existing roadside retail; o industrial and public use buildings, etc. Red: Conceptual design alignment (Feasibility Study, 2019) Blue: Preliminary design alignment (optimized proposal) 17 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway The Design in numbers Length of section: 40.4km Design speed 120km/h 5 Interchanges IC01 Murriqan Restauration of 30 km of roads (77 LRs / 9 categories) 40 underpasses (4 types) 17 bridges (1644m including Buna Bridge, 4 types) 824 m of retaining walls 2,589 m MSEWs (2 types) 100 culverts (4 types) 67 km of roadside channels (4 types) 24 km of pipes 30 detention basins 67 rearrangements of water streams 20 km noise barriers (3-4m height) Parking areas at Ch. 21+700 (both sides) Cut: 222,382 c.m. Fill:10,160,217 c.m. IC02 Velipoje IC03 Vau Dejës IC04 Gjadër IC05 Balldren 18 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Design of alignment (L=40.4km) Motorway alignment at actual stage (Octoberr 2023) Local Roads alignment, total length 29.7km (October 2023) 19 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Design of alignment (L=40.4km) Motorway alignment at actual stage (October 2023) Local Roads alignment, total length 29.7km (October 2023) 20 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Design of Interchanges ❑ Main factors influencing the location and layout of interchanges: o Trip length (travel distance) o Size of the urban area to be served o Predicted traffic volumes and turning movements to accommodate o Topography and site conditions o Cost of interchange construction o Congestion control Interchange No Ch. Structure o Possibility of advanced signing. shape ❑ Proposed interchanges in the preliminary design: Locations with access 1 1+200 Half Clover Leaf (with two roundabouts) Underpass (13mx5m) 2 9+925 Half Clover Leaf (with two roundabouts) Bridge (3x40m) 3 16+365 Diamond (with two roundabouts) Underpass (13mx5m) Vau Dejës, Plezhë, Stajkë, Kosmaç, Melgushë, Ashtë, Bushat, Shkjezë, Paçram, Pistull 4 26+830 (with two T-junctions) Underpass (13mx5m) Dajç, Tushaj, Kotërr, Gramsh, Kukël, Zojz, Gjadër, Baqël, Blinisht, Fishtë, Mabë, Barbullush, 5 37+780 Underpass (13mx5m) Balldren, Mërqi, Raboshtë, Kallmet i Madh, Kallmet i Vogël, Gocaj, Kodhel, Troshan, Kakarriq Half Clover Leaf Trumpet Murriqan, Dodaj, Goricë, Obot, Oblikë Velipojë, Bërdicë, Beltoje, Trush, Darragjat, Shirq 21 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Preliminary Design of Buna River Bridge 200m span Extradosed type bridge 22 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Preliminary Design of Buna River Bridge Bridge Elevation Bridge Longitudinal Section (with clearance and deck segmentation) 23 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Focus point – Resilience to Climate Change Climate Resilience Vulnerability and Risk Assessment High temperatures Protection from floods Exposure High Medium Low Heat Cold High Medium Flood Landslide, Sensitivity Wildfire Low Dought Wind In order to resolve the issue of reduction of structural integrity of roadway embankment and its subbase, the design uses a filter/drainage layer, with thickness of at least 50cm and a maximum up to the max. water level + 30cm freeboard. 24 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Focus point – Flooding Area The modelling of Buna River is crucial for the design of the bridge over the river in order to define the opening width. Several scenarios were analyzed to conclude with a final variant where small or medium bridges, large culverts and underpasses are proposed to additionally help the main bridge over Buna River to release the flood flow downstream and keeping backwater under control. The design in conjunction with the proposed measures and recommendations, secures that the new motorway will not change (worsen) the situation of flooding hazard in the area of study. 25 3. The Outputs of the Project Design of motorway Video 26 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Purpose of ESIA is to identify and assess potential adverse E&S impacts and develop suitable mitigation measures. Performed according to the EBRD Environmental and Social Policy and Albanian national requirements. Carried out in parallel to the Preliminary Design process. Inform the technical assessment / design process with relevant early proposals and achieve mitigation through design. Reduce the overall environmental and social footprint of the project over the construction and operation phase. 27 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Scope of work / tasks Scoping - Identified key E&S topics and issues related to the Project, considered in the ESIA process. Environmental and Social Baseline - Following the review of the available environmental, biodiversity and social baseline data, extensive surveys were conducted to compensate for the baseline data gaps: • Air, Water and Soil quality and Noise measurements together with Noise modelling, • Mammals, Birds, Reptiles, Amphibians, Habitats, Aquatic fauna, • Social surveys. ESIA Package drafted: • ESIA Report + EIA Study • Non-Technical Summary (NTS) • Environmental & Social Action Plan (ESAP), • Environmental & Social Management Plan (ESMP), • Biodiversity Management Plan (BMP), • Stakeholder Engagement Plan (SEP), • Resettlement Framework (LARF). 28 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Environmental impacts and measures Air, water, waste key impact/significance and measures: Construction emissions/discharges, risk of leakage and various types of waste / minor to moderate, Good construction and maintenance practice, Management plans and measures, Monitoring, Noise key impact/significance and measures: Noise level increased at 16 sections, Total number of affected properties: 476, Moderate to major adverse, Total length of the noise barriers: 18850 m. Biodiversity key impacts/significance and measures: Identified 96 habitats and species that qualify for both Critical Habitat (64) and Priority Biodiversity Feature (32) Key impacts and significance: Disturbance, Degradation, Fragmentation / Negligible to Minor to Moderate Total habitat area affected is 160 ha, out of it only 1.4% is natural habitats. Key measures: Good construction practice, Avoid destruction of habitats and secure nonet-loss, Offset measures to ensure net gain for critical habitats, Biodiversity 29 Management Plan. 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Cumulative and transboundary impact potential Cumulative impact potential: Several related infrastructure development projects in the project area considered. Construction phase: minor, and of moderate significance. Operational phase: limited potential for overlapping of impacts resulting from multiple projects on intersecting points, with a low probability, thus making the effects to be of minor significance Transboundary impact potential: Considering the type of the project and based on the assessment of the potential environmental impacts, the project should not have significant transboundary impact. Considering that the project area of interest involves the Ramsar site Shkodra Lake and Buna River, it is recommended that the competent authorities initiate early consultation with the neighbouring countries on the transboundary aspect 30 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Stakeholder Engagement Activities Introductory meetings (January and April 2022) - To inform about the project activity and establish communication/feedback • Regional Administration of Protected Areas, National Environmental Agency, • Municipality of Lezha, Shkodra and Vau I Dejes. ESIA Scoping – Project presentation meetings (March 2023) • Municipality of Lezha, Shkodra and Vau I Dejes. Project and ESIA findings Presentations: • Project presentations: 30-31 March 2024 in Municipalities of Lezhe, Vau i Dejes and Shkoder • ESIA findings presentations: 20-21 May 2024 in MIE Tirana and Municipalities of Lezhe, Vau i Dejes and Shkoder • All presentations were supported by media web releases Extensive Socio-economic survey for the baseline purposes • 209 questionnaires fulfilled • 27 of 35 Interviews conducted mainly within the project footprint, the remaining in the close vicinity or next to the project footprint • All respondents were informed on the motorway project, purpose of the survey and 31 project elements prior to start of fulfilment of the questionnaire 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Identified Social impacts Positive Socio-economic Impacts in Construction: Employment Opportunities during Construction phase (Job creation). Increased engagement of local companies as a supplier to the Contractor (Local Economy and Supply Chain Opportunities). Positive Socio-economic Impacts in Operation: • Restauration local dirt roads Improved traffic safety on the existing road Shorter travel time Increased employments for maintenance of the motorway Opportunities local economic development Improved accessibility for residents of neigdouring villages/cities and accordingly better access to educational, health and social facilities. Increased number of tourists in Albania, traveling through Montenegro Adverse Socio-economic Impacts during Construction Labor and Working Conditions Community Health and Safety Resettlement 32 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Mitigation measures for Social impacts Development and implementation of Plans: Contractor must have: Local Employment and Procurement Plan (LEPP) Company’s HR Policy, Non-discrimination and (workforce to consists at least 50% of local Equal Opportunities Policy, Policy against workers) GBVH (including procedure for reporting and responding to GBVH), Policy against Child and Workers Accommodation Plan (WAP) Forced Labour, Occupational Health and Safety Occupational Safety and Health Plan during Plan during construction, Grievance construction (OHSPC) Mechanism for engaged workers on this project Hazards Management Plan (HMP) during construction phase, Code of Conduct Workforce Recruitment, Development and Training (for all workers, including those of subManagement Plan during construction contractors). (WRDTMPC) Establishing a fenced safety zone around Construction Site Management Plan (CSMP) construction zones and facilities Community Health and Safety Management Plan (CHSMP) Emergency Preparedness and Response Plan – EPRP Traffic Management Plan (TMP) Resettlement Plan (RP) “Traffic Safety during Construction” campaign Establishment of Grievance Redress Mechanism (GRM) Cultural Heritage: establishment of “Chance-find” procedure 33 3. The Outputs of the Project ESIA Photo collage 34 3. The Outputs of the Project Feasibility Study Cost-Benefit Analysis Model Key Assumptions - Timeline Without-the-project (WOP) scenario: Operation of existing road sections (Sh1, Sh41) with usual maintenance expenses With-the-project (WP) Scenario: New AIC motorway section (without tolls) with new service/ access roads and existing roads preserved SDR = 6%; FDR = 5.1% (based on GoA bond) 35 3. The Outputs of the Project Feasibility Study Investment Cost # 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 000 EUR, nominal prices Site Clearance 1,460 Earthworks 152,679 Pavements 52,091 Drainage 19,326 Local Roads 2,640 Noise Barriers 5,304 Safety Barriers/ Traffic Signs/ Road Markings 28,655 Structures (Buna Bridge, etc.) 112,604 Electrical Lighting 2,730 Landscaping 1,250 General Items 1,475 Description Total Investment cost (w/o VAT, contingencies) 380,214 Contingencies (5%) 19,011 Detailed Design/ Tender Documents 3,000 Construction Supervision 19,961 Total Investment Cost (w/o VAT) 422,186 Drainage 5,1% Pavements 13,7% Noise Barriers 1,4% Earthworks 40,2% Structures 29,6% Site Clearance 0,4% General Items 0,4% Local Roads 0,7% Electrical Lighting 0,7% Landscaping 0,3% 36 Safety Barriers/ Traffic Signs/ Road Markings 7,5% 3. The Outputs of the Project Feasibility Study Maintenance Costs Routine & Periodic Maintenance Costs (KEUR2022) Maintenance Works Routine & winter maintenance cost (annual) Periodic pavement maintenance cost (every 10 years) WOP Scenario WP Scenario Incremental O&M Costs 305.47 989.39 683.92 3,063.44 14,040.14 10,976.70 37 3. The Outputs of the Project Feasibility Study Socio-economic Benefits Travel time (TT) savings for existing road transport (LV & HV) due to the increased design speed on the new motorway section Changes in Vehicle Operating Cost (VOC) for existing road transport (LV & HV) due to shift from existing roads to the new motorway Consumer Surplus (CS) for generated traffic due to changes in travel time and VOC Changes in social and environmental external costs due to the shift from existing roads to the new motorway and the concomitant impacts on road safety, air pollution (AP), well-to-tank (WTT) emissions and climate change. 4,7% 42,6% 51,7% 1,0% Significant travel time and road accident cost savings Slightly impacted VOC and CC costs in the WP scenario Assumed penetration of Electric Vehicles (EV) in Albanian market according to EBRD “Medium Scenario” Estimation of average VOC and environmental costs evolution over time Travel Time AP & WTT Accidents Consumer Surplus 38 3. The Outputs of the Project Feasibility Study Financial & Economic Performance Indicators Summary results of Financial Analysis FDR FNPV(C)* 5.1% -307.10 4.1% -312.36 6.1% -300.12 FRR(C) FNPV(K)* FRR(K) -204.67 -4.12% -216.13 -4.55% -192.88 Summary results of Economic Analysis SDR ENPV* 5% 183.49 6% 106.19 7% 47.59 ERR BCR 1.57 1.35 8.08% 1.16 *NPV in M€2022 prices 39 3. The Outputs of the Project Feasibility Study Sensitivity & Risk Analysis The project remains feasible (ENPV>0) in most Sensitivity Analysis tests - even with an increase of the investment cost by 36% or a decrease of forecasted traffic volumes (and thus of the respective social benefits) by 26%. Variable ENPV Elasticity ENPV Switching Value Investment cost -2.75% 136% Traffic volume 3.87% 74% VoT 1.32% 24% Accident cost 1.60% 38% The Quantitative and Qualitative Risk Assessment showed that the project is considered safe (probability of negative ENPV = 0.17%) The highest risk issue seems to be the availability of funds for project implementation, which may be eliminated by employing proper mitigation measures. Overall, the project of implementing the new motorway section Murriqan-Lezhe of the Adriatic-Ionian Corridor is economically feasible, with considerable socioeconomic benefits. 40 4. Next steps Completion of project: Approval of PD by ARA/MIE No-objection of EBRD on delivered ESIA and FS Submission of Final Report Design Procurement A GAF for funding of the next design phase (Detailed Design), ESIA update and preparation of TD is submitted Potential next steps ToR to be finalized in the last quarter of 2024 and DD, ESIA/EIA and TD to be assigned in early 2025 Construction 41 42
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