BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
AND ANALYTICS
RAMESH SHARDA
DURSUN DELEN
EFRAIM TURBAN
TENTH EDITION
.•
TENTH EDITION
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
AND ANALYTICS:
SYSTEMS FOR DECISION SUPPORT
Ramesh Sharda
Oklahoma State University
Dursun Delen
Oklahoma State University
Efraim Turban
University of Hawaii
With contributions by
J.E.Aronson
Tbe University of Georgia
Ting-Peng Liang
National Sun Yat-sen University
David King
]DA Software Group, Inc.
PEARSON
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Turban, Efraim.
[Decision support and expert system,)
Business intelligence and analytics: systems for decision support/Ramesh Sharda, Oklahoma State University,
Dursun Delen, Oklahoma State University, Efraim Turban, University of Hawaii; With contributions
by J. E. Aronson, The University of Georgia, Ting-Peng Liang, National Sun Yat-sen University,
David King, JOA Software Group, Inc.-Tenth edition.
pages cm
ISBN-13: 978-0-13-305090-5
ISBN-10: 0-13-305090-4
1. Management-Data processing. 2. Decision support systems. 3. Expert systems (Compute r science)
4. Business intelligence. I. Title.
HD30.2.T87 2014
658.4'03801 l-dc23
2013028826
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
PEARSON
ISBN 10: 0-13-305090-4
ISBN 13: 978-0-13-305090-5
BRIEF CONTENTS
Preface xxi
About the Authors xxix
PART I
Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
PART II
1
Chapter 1
An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics,
and Decision Support 2
Chapter 2
Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Descriptive Analytics
77
Chapter 3
Data Warehousing
Chapter 4
Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business
Performance Management 135
PART Ill Predictive Analytics
78
185
Chapter 5
Data Mining
Chapter 6
Techniques for Predictive Modeling
Chapter 7
Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis
Chapter 8
Web Analytics, Web Mining, and Social Analytics
186
PART IV Prescriptive Analytics
Chapter 9
37
243
288
338
391
Model-Based Decision Making: Optimization and MultiCriteria Systems 392
Chapter 10 Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and
Simulation 435
Chapter 11
Automated Decision Systems and Expert Systems
469
Chapter 12
Knowledge Management and Collaborative Systems
507
PART V Big Data and Future Directions for Business
Analytics 541
Chapter 13 Big Data and Analytics
542
Chapter 14 Business Analytics: Emerging Trends and Future
Impacts 592
Glossary
Index
634
648
iii
CONTENTS
Preface
xxi
About the Authors xxix
Part I
Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
1
Chapter 1 An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and
Decision Support 2
1.1
Opening Vignette: Magpie Sensing Employs Analytics to
Manage a Vaccine Supply Chain Effectively and Safely 3
1.2
Changing Business Environments and Computerized
Decision Support 5
The Business Pressures-Responses-Support Model
1.3
Managerial Decision Making
The Nature of Managers' Work
The Decision-Making Process
5
7
7
8
1.4
Information Systems Support for Decision Making
1.5
An Early Framework for Computerized Decision
Support 11
The Gorry and Scott-Morton Classical Framework
Computer Support for Structured Decisions
1.6
12
13
Computer Support for Semistructured Problems
13
The Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS)
14
A Framework for Business Intelligence (Bl)
Definitions of Bl
14
14
A Brief History of Bl
14
The Architecture of Bl
Styles of Bl
13
13
Evolution of DSS into Business Intelligence
1.7
11
Computer Support for Unstructured Decisions
DSS as an Umbrella Term
9
15
15
The Origins and Drivers of Bl
16
A Multimedia Exercise in Business Intelligence 16
~ APPLICATION CASE 1.1 Sabre Helps Its Clients Through Dashboards
and Analytics 17
The DSS-BI Connection
1.8
18
Business Analytics Overview
Descriptive Analytics
~
20
APPLICATION CASE 1.2 Eliminating Inefficiencies at Seattle
Children's Hospital
~
21
APPLICATION CASE 1.3 Analysis at the Speed of Thought
Predictive Analytics
iv
19
22
22
Conte nts
~
APPLICATION CASE 1.4 Moneybal/: Analytics in Sports and Movies
~
APPLICATION CASE 1.5 Analyzing Athletic Injuries
Prescriptive Analytics
23
24
24
~ APPLICATION CASE 1.6 Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
(ICBC) Employs Models to Reconfigure Its Branch Network
1.9
Analytics Applied to Different Domains 26
Analytics or Data Science? 26
Brief Introduction to Big Data Analytics
What Is Big Data? 27
~
25
27
APPLICATION CASE 1.7 Gilt Groupe's Flash Sales Streamlined by Big
Data Analytics 29
1.10 Plan of the Book 29
Part I: Business Analytics: An Overview
Part II: Descriptive Analytics 30
29
Part Ill: Predictive Analytics 30
Part IV: Prescriptive Analytics 31
Part V: Big Data and Future Directions for Business Analytics 31
1.11 Resources, Links, and the Teradata University Network
Connection 31
Resources and Links 31
Vendors, Products, and Demos 31
Periodicals 31
The Teradata University Network Connection
The Book's Web Site 32
Chapter Highlights
32
Questions for Discussion
~
•
Key Terms
33
•
32
33
Exercises
33
END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Nationwide Insurance Used Bl
to Enhance Customer Service 34
References
35
Chapter 2 Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
2.1
2.2
Opening Vignette: Decision Modeling at HP Using
Spreadsheets 38
Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions 40
Characteristics of Decision Making 40
A Working Definition of Decision Making
Decision-Making Disciplines 41
2.3
2.4
41
Decision Style and Decision Makers 41
Phases of the Decision-Making Process 42
Decision Making: The Intelligence Phase 44
Problem (or Opportunity) Identification 45
~
APPLICATION CASE 2.1 Making Elevators Go Faster!
Problem Classification
46
Problem Decomposition
46
Problem Ownership
46
45
37
v
vi
Contents
2.5
Decision Making: The Design Phase
Models
47
Mathematical (Quantitative) Models
The Benefits of Models
Normative Models
Suboptimization
47
47
Selection of a Principle of Choice
48
49
49
Descriptive Models
50
Good Enough, or Satisficing
51
Developing (Generating) Alternatives
Measuring Outcomes
Risk
47
52
53
53
Scenarios
54
Possible Scenarios
54
Errors in Decision Making
54
2.6
Decision Making: The Choice Phase
2.7
Decision Making: The Implementation Phase
2.8
How Decisions Are Supported
Support for the Intelligence Phase
Support for the Design Phase
57
Support for the Choice Phase
58
56
58
Decision Support Systems: Capabilities
A DSS Application
55
56
Support for the Implementation Phase
2.9
55
59
59
2.10 DSS Classifications
61
The AIS SIGDSS Classification for DSS
Other DSS Categories
61
63
Custom-Made Systems Versus Ready-Made Systems
63
2.11 Components of Decision Support Systems
The Data Management Subsystem
64
65
The Model Management Subsystem 65
~ APPLICATION CASE 2.2 Station Casinos Wins by Building Customer
Relationships Using Its Data
~
66
APPLICATION CASE 2.3 SNAP DSS Helps OneNet Make
Telecommunications Rate Decisions 68
The User Interface Subsystem
68
The Knowledge-Based Management Subsystem 69
~ APPLICATION CASE 2.4 From a Game Winner to a Doctor!
Chapter Highlights
72
Questions for Discussion
~
•
Key Terms
73
•
70
73
Exercises
74
END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Logistics Optimization in a
Major Shipping Company (CSAV)
References
75
74
Conte nts
Part II Descriptive Analytics
Chapter 3 Data Warehousing
77
78
3.1
Opening Vignette: Isle of Capri Casinos Is Winning with
Enterprise Data Warehouse 79
3.2
Data Warehousing Definitions and Concepts
What Is a Data Warehouse?
81
A Historical Perspective to Data Warehousing
Characteristics of Data Warehousing
Data Marts
APPLICATION CASE 3.1 A Better Data Plan: Well-Established TELCOs
Leverage Data Warehousing and Analytics to Stay on Top in a
Competitive Industry 85
Data Warehousing Architectures
90
Alternative Data Warehousing Architectures
93
96
Data Integration and the Extraction, Transformation, and
Load (ETL) Processes 97
Data Integration
~
98
APPLICATION CASE 3.3 BP Lubricants Achieves BIGS Success
Extraction, Transfonnation, and Load
3.6
87
APPLICATION CASE 3.2 Data Warehousing Helps MultiCare Save
More Lives 88
Which Architecture Is the Best?
3.5
85
Data Warehousing Process Overview
~
3.4
83
84
Enterprise Data Warehouses (EDW)
Metadata 85
3.3
81
84
Operational Data Stores
~
102
APPLICATION CASE 3.4 Things Go Better with Coke's Data
Warehouse
103
Data Warehouse Development Approaches
~
103
APPLICATION CASE 3.5 Starwood Hotels & Resorts Manages Hotel
Profitability with Data Warehousing 106
Additional Data Warehouse Development Considerations
Representation of Data in Data Warehouse
Analysis of Data in the Data Warehouse
OLAP Versus OLTP
110
OLAP Operations
11 0
109
Real-Time Data Warehousing
~
113
APPLICATION CASE 3.6 EDW Helps Connect State Agencies in
Michigan 115
Massive Data Warehouses and Scalability
3.8
107
108
Data Warehousing Implementation Issues
~
98
100
Data Warehouse Development
~
3.7
81
116
117
APPLICATION CASE 3.7 Egg Pie Fries the Competition in Near Real
Time 118
vii
viii
Contents
3.9
Data Warehouse Administration, Security Issues, and Future
Trends 121
The Future of Data Warehousing
123
3.10 Resources, Links, and the Teradata University Network
Connection 126
Resources and Links 126
Cases 126
Vendors, Products, and Demos 127
Periodicals 127
Additional References 127
The Teradata University Network (TUN) Connection 127
Chapter Highlights
128
•
Questions for Discussion
Key Terms
128
•
128
Exercises
129
.... END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Continental Airlines Flies High
with Its Real-Time Data Warehouse
References
131
132
Chapter 4 Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business
Performance Management 135
4.1
Opening Vignette:Self-Service Reporting Environment
Saves Millions for Corporate Customers 136
4.2
Business Reporting Definitions and Concepts
What Is a Business Report?
139
140
..,. APPLICATION CASE 4.1 Delta Lloyd Group Ensures Accuracy and
Efficiency in Financial Reporting
141
Components of the Business Reporting System
143
.... APPLICATION CASE 4.2 Flood of Paper Ends at FEMA
4.3
Data and Information Visualization
144
145
..,. APPLICATION CASE 4.3 Tableau Saves Blastrac Thousands of Dollars
with Simplified Information Sharing
A Brief History of Data Visualization
146
147
.... APPLICATION CASE 4.4 TIBCO Spotfire Provides Dana-Farber Cancer
Institute with Unprecedented Insight into Cancer Vaccine Clinical
Trials 149
4.4
Different Types of Charts and Graphs
Basic Charts and Graphs
Specialized Charts and Graphs
4.5
151
The Emergence of Data Visualization and Visual
Analytics 154
Visual Analytics
156
High-Powered Visual Analytics Environments
4.6
150
150
Performance Dashboards
158
160
.... APPLICATION CASE 4.5 Dallas Cowboys Score Big with Tableau and
Teknion
161
Conte nts
Dashboard Design
~
162
APPLICATION CASE 4.6 Saudi Telecom Company Excels with
Information Visualization 163
What to Look For in a Dashboard
164
Best Practices in Dashboard Design
165
Benchmark Key Performance Indicators with Industry Standards
Wrap the Dashboard Metrics with Contextual Metadata
165
Validate the Dashboard Design by a Usability Specialist
165
Prioritize and Rank Alerts/Exceptions Streamed to the Dashboard
Enrich Dashboard with Business Users' Comments
Present Information in Three Different Levels
4.7
166
~
4.8
166
167
APPLICATION CASE 4.7 IBM Cognos Express Helps Mace for Faster
and Better Business Reporting 169
Performance Measurement
Key Performance Indicator (KPI)
170
171
Performance Measurement System
4.9
166
166
Business Performance Management
Closed-Loop BPM Cycle
165
165
Pick the Right Visual Construct Using Dashboard Design Principles
Provide for Guided Analytics
165
Balanced Scorecards
The Four Perspectives
172
172
173
The Meaning of Balance in BSC
17 4
Dashboards Versus Scorecards
174
4.10 Six Sigma as a Performance Measurement System
The DMAIC Performance Model
175
176
Balanced Scorecard Versus Six Sigma
176
Effective Performance Measurement 177
~ APPLICATION CASE 4.8 Expedia.com's Customer Satisfaction
Scorecard
178
Chapter Highlights
179
Questions for Discussion
~
•
180
Exercises
181
184
Part Ill Predictive Analytics
Chapter 5 Data Mining
5.2
181
Key Terms
END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Smart Business Reporting
Helps Healthcare Providers Deliver Better Care 182
References
5.1
•
185
186
Opening Vignette: Cabela's Reels in More Customers with
Advanced Analytics and Data Mining 187
Data Mining Concepts and Applications
~
189
APPLICATION CASE 5.1 Smarter Insurance: Infinity P&C Improves
Customer Service and Combats Fraud with Predictive Analytics
191
ix
x
Contents
Definitions, Characteristics, and Benefits
192
..,. APPLICATION CASE 5.2 Harnessing Analytics to Combat Crime:
Predictive Analytics Helps Memphis Police Department Pinpoint Crime
and Focus Police Resources 196
5.3
How Data Mining Works 197
Data Mining Versus Statistics 200
Data Mining Applications 201
.... APPLICATION CASE 5.3 A Mine on Terrorist Funding
5.4
203
Data Mining Process 204
Step 1: Business Understanding 205
Step 2: Data Understanding 205
Step 3: Data Preparation 206
Step 4: Model Building 208
.... APPLICATION CASE 5.4 Data Mining in Cancer Research
Step 5: Testing and Evaluation
5.5
5.6
5.7
210
211
Step 6: Deployment 211
Other Data Mining Standardized Processes and Methodologies 212
Data Mining Methods 214
Classification 214
Estimating the True Accuracy of Classification Models 215
Cluster Analysis for Data Mining 220
..,. APPLICATION CASE 5.5 2degrees Gets a 1275 Percent Boost in Churn
Identification 221
Association Rule Mining 224
Data Mining Software Tools 228
.... APPLICATION CASE 5.6 Data Mining Goes to Hollywood: Predicting
Financial Success of Movies 231
Data Mining Privacy Issues, Myths, and Blunders 234
Data Mining and Privacy Issues 234
.... APPLICATION CASE 5.7 Predicting Customer Buying Patterns-The
Target Story 235
Data Mining Myths and Blunders 236
Chapter Highlights
237
•
Key Terms
238
Questions for Discussion 238 • Exercises 239
.... END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Macys.com Enhances Its
Customers' Shopping Experience with Analytics
References
241
241
Chapter 6 Techniques for Predictive Modeling
243
6.1
Opening Vignette: Predictive Modeling Helps Better
Understand and Manage Complex Medical
Procedures 244
6.2
Basic Concepts of Neural Networks 247
Biological and Artificial Neural Networks 248
..,. APPLICATION CASE 6.1 Neural Networks Are Helping to Save Lives in
the Mining Industry 250
Elements of ANN 251
Conte nts
Network Information Processing 252
Neural Network Architectures 254
~
APPLICATION CASE 6.2 Predictive Modeling Is Powering the Power
Generators 256
6.3
Developing Neural Network-Based Systems
The General ANN Learning Process 259
Backpropagation 260
6.4
Illuminating the Black Box of ANN with Sensitivity
Analysis 262
~
6.5
APPLICATION CASE 6.3 Sensitivity Analysis Reveals Injury Severity
Factors in Traffic Accidents 264
Support Vector Machines
~
265
APPLICATION CASE 6.4 Managing Student Retention with Predictive
Modeling 266
Mathematical Formulation of SVMs
Primal Form 271
Dual Form 271
Soft Margin 271
Nonlinear Classification
Kernel Trick 272
270
272
6.6
A Process-Based Approach to the Use of SVM
Support Vector Machines Versus Artificial Neural Networks
6.7
Nearest Neighbor Method for Prediction
Similarity Measure: The Distance Metric 276
Parameter Selection
~
258
273
274
275
277
APPLICATION CASE 6.5 Efficient Image Recognition and
Categorization with kNN 278
Chapter Highlights
280
•
Key Terms
280
Questions for Discussion 281 • Exercises 281
~ END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Coors Improves Beer Flavors
with Neural Networks
References
284
285
Chapter 7 Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis
288
7.1
Opening Vignette: Machine Versus Men on Jeopardy!: The
Story of Watson 289
7.2
Text Analytics and Text Mining Concepts and
Definitions 291
~
7.3
Natural Language Processing
~
7.4
APPLICATION CASE 7.1 Text Mining for Patent Analysis
296
APPLICATION CASE 7.2 Text Mining Improves Hong Kong
Government's Ability to Anticipate and Address Public Complaints
Text Mining Applications
Marketing Applications
Security Applications
~
295
300
301
301
APPLICATION CASE 7.3 Mining for Lies
Biomedical Applications
304
302
298
xi
xii
Contents
Academic Applications
305
.... APPLICATION CASE 7.4 Text Mining and Sentiment Analysis Help
Improve Customer Service Performance 306
7.5
Text Mining Process
307
Task 1: Establish the Corpus
308
Task 2: Create the Term-Document Matrix 309
Task 3: Extract the Knowledge
312
..,. APPLICATION CASE 7.5 Research Literature Survey with Text
Mining 314
7.6
Text Mining Tools
317
Commercial Software Tools
Free Software Tools
317
317
..,. APPLICATION CASE 7.6 A Potpourri ofText Mining Case Synopses
7.7
Sentiment Analysis Overview
318
319
..,. APPLICATION CASE 7.7 Whirlpool Achieves Customer Loyalty and
Product Success with Text Analytics 321
7.8
Sentiment Analysis Applications
7.9
Sentiment Analysis Process
325
Methods for Polarity Identification
326
Using a Lexicon
323
327
Using a Collection of Training Documents
328
Identifying Semantic Orientation of Sentences and Phrases
Identifying Semantic Orientation of Document
328
7.10 Sentiment Analysis and Speech Analytics
How Is It Done?
328
329
329
..,. APPLICATION CASE 7.8 Cutting Through the Confusion: Blue Cross
Blue Shield of North Carolina Uses Nexidia's Speech Analytics to Ease
Member Experience in Healthcare 331
Chapter Highlights
333
•
Key Terms
333
Questions for Discussion 334 • Exercises 334
.... END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE BBVA Seamlessly Monitors
and Improves Its Online Reputation
References
335
336
Chapter 8 Web Analytics, Web Mining, and Social Analytics
338
8.1
Opening Vignette: Security First Insurance Deepens
Connection with Policyholders 339
8.2
Web Mining Overview
8.3
Web Content and Web Structure Mining
341
344
.... APPLICATION CASE 8.1 Identifying Extremist Groups with Web Link
and Content Analysis 346
8.4
Search Engines
347
Anatomy of a Search Engine
1. Development Cycle
348
Web Crawler 348
Document Indexer
348
347
Conte nts
2. Response Cycle
Query Analyzer
349
349
Document Matcher/Ranker
How Does Google Do It?
~
8.5
349
351
APPLICATION CASE 8.2 IGN Increases Search Traffic by 1500 Percent
Search Engine Optimization
354
Methods for Search Engine Optimization
~
8.6
APPLICATION CASE 8.3 Understanding Why Customers Abandon
Shopping Carts Results in $10 Million Sales Increase 357
Web Analytics Technologies
358
359
APPLICATION CASE 8.4 Allegro Boosts Online Click-Through Rates by
500 Percent with Web Analysis 360
Web Analytics Metrics
Web Site Usability
362
362
Traffic Sources
363
Visitor Profiles
364
Conversion Statistics
8.7
355
Web Usage Mining (Web Analytics)
~
353
364
Web Analytics Maturity Model and Web Analytics Tools
Web Analytics Tools
366
368
Putting It All Together-A Web Site Optimization Ecosystem
370
A Framework for Voice of the Customer Strategy 372
8.8
Social Analytics and Social Network Analysis
Social Network Analysis
374
Social Network Analysis Metrics
~
8.9
375
APPLICATION CASE 8.5 Social Network Analysis Helps
Telecommunication Firms 375
Connections
376
Distributions
376
Segmentation
377
Social Media Definitions and Concepts
How Do People Use Social Media?
~
377
378
APPLICATION CASE 8.6 Measuring the Impact of Social Media at
Lollapalooza 379
8.10 Social Media Analytics
380
Measuring the Social Media Impact
381
Best Practices in Social Media Analytics
~
373
381
APPLICATION CASE 8.7 eHarmony Uses Social Media to Help Take the
Mystery Out of Online Dating 383
Social Media Analytics Tools and Vendors 384
Chapter Highlights 386 • Key Terms 387
Questions for Discussion 387 • Exercises 388
~ END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Keeping Students on Track with
Web and Predictive Analytics 388
References 390
xiii
xiv
Contents
Part IV Prescriptive Analytics
391
Chapter 9 Model-Based Decision Making: Optimization and
Multi-Criteria Systems 392
9.1
Opening Vignette: Midwest ISO Saves Billions by Better
Planning of Power Plant Operations and Capacity
Planning 393
9.2
Decision Support Systems Modeling
~
APPLICATION CASE 9.1 Optimal Transport for ExxonMobil
Downstream Through a DSS 395
Current Modeling Issues
~
394
396
APPLICATION CASE 9.2 Forecasting/Predictive Analytics Proves to Be
a Good Gamble for Harrah's Cherokee Casino and Hotel 397
9.3
Structure of Mathematical Models for Decision Support
The Components of Decision Support Mathematical Models 399
The Structure of Mathematical Models 401
9.4
Certainty, Uncertainty, and Risk 401
Decision Making Under Certainty 402
Decision Making Under Uncertainty 402
Decision Making Under Risk (Risk Analysis) 402
~
9.5
9.6
APPLICATION CASE 9.3 American Airlines Uses
Should-Cost Modeling to Assess the Uncertainty of Bids
for Shipment Routes 403
Decision Modeling with Spreadsheets
~
404
APPLICATION CASE 9.4 Showcase Scheduling at Fred Astaire East
Side Dance Studio 404
Mathematical Programming Optimization 407
~ APPLICATION CASE 9.5 Spreadsheet Model Helps Assign Medical
Residents 407
Mathematical Programming 408
Linear Programming 408
Modeling in LP: An Example 409
Implementation 414
9.7
Multiple Goals, Sensitivity Analysis, What-If Analysis,
and Goal Seeking 416
Multiple Goals 416
Sensitivity Analysis 417
What-If Analysis 418
Goal Seeking 418
9.8
Decision Analysis with Decision Tables and Decision
Trees 420
9.9
399
Decision Tables
420
Decision Trees
422
Multi-Criteria Decision Making With Pairwise
Comparisons 423
The Analytic Hierarchy Process
423
Conte nts
~ APPLICATION
CASE 9.6 U.S. HUD Saves the House by Using
AHP for Selecting IT Projects
423
Tutorial on Applying Analytic Hierarchy Process Using Web-HIPRE 425
Chapter Highlights 429 • Key Terms 430
Questions for Discussion 430 • Exercises 430
~ END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Pre-Positioning of Emergency
433
Items for CARE International
References
434
Chapter 10 Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and
Simulation 435
10.1 Opening Vignette: System Dynamics Allows Fluor
Corporation to Better Plan for Project and Change
Management 436
10.2
Problem-Solving Search Methods
Analytical Techniques
Algorithms
438
Blind Searching
439
Heuristic Searching
~
437
438
439
APPLICATION CASE 10.1 Chilean Government Uses Heuristics to
Make Decisions on School Lunch Providers
10.3
Example: The Vector Game
443
How Do Genetic Algorithms Work?
443
Limitations of Genetic Algorithms
445
Genetic Algorithm Applications
Simulation
441
441
Terminology of Genetic Algorithms
10.4
439
Genetic Algorithms and Developing GA Applications
445
446
~
APPLICATION CASE 10.2 Improving Maintenance Decision Making in
the Finnish Air Force Through Simulation 446
~
APPLICATION CASE 10.3 Simulating Effects of Hepatitis B
Interventions 447
Major Characteristics of Simulation 448
Advantages of Simulation 449
Disadvantages of Simulation 450
The Methodology of Simulation 450
Simulation Types 451
Monte Carlo Simulation 452
Discrete Event Simulation 453
10.5
Visual Interactive Simulation 453
Conventional Simulation Inadequacies 453
Visual Interactive Simulation 453
Visual Interactive Models and DSS 454
~
APPLICATION CASE 10.4 Improving Job-Shop Scheduling Decisions
Through RFID: A Simulation-Based Assessment 454
Simulation Software
457
xv
xvi
Contents
10.6
10.7
System Dynamics Modeling
Agent-Based Modeling
~
458
461
APPLICATION CASE 10.5 Agent-Based Simulation Helps Analyze
Spread of a Pandemic Outbreak 463
Chapter Highlights 464 • Key Terms 464
Questions for Discussion 465 • Exercises 465
~ END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE HP Applies Management
Science Modeling to Optimize Its Supply Chain and Wins a Major
Award 465
References
467
Chapter 11 Automated Decision Systems and Expert Systems 469
11.1 Opening Vignette: InterContinental Hotel Group Uses
11.2
Decision Rules for Optimal Hotel Room Rates
Automated Decision Systems 471
~
11.3
11.4
480
APPLICATION CASE 11.3 Expert System Aids in Identification of
Chemical, Biological, and Radiological Agents 481
Classical Applications of ES 481
Newer Applications of ES 482
Areas for ES Applications 483
Structure of Expert Systems 484
Knowledge Acquisition Subsystem 484
Knowledge Base 485
Inference Engine 485
User Interface 485
Blackboard (Workplace) 485
Explanation Subsystem (Justifier) 486
Knowledge-Refining System 486
~
11.7
APPLICATION CASE 11.2 Expert System Helps in Identifying Sport
Talents 480
Applications of Expert Systems
~
11.6
APPLICATION CASE 11.1 Giant Food Stores Prices the Entire
Store 472
The Artificial Intelligence Field 475
Basic Concepts of Expert Systems 477
Experts 477
Expertise 478
Features of ES 478
~
11.5
470
APPLICATION CASE 11.4 Diagnosing Heart Diseases by Signal
Processing 486
Knowledge Engineering 487
Knowledge Acquisition 488
Knowledge Verification and Validation 490
Knowledge Representation
Inferencing 491
490
Explanation and Justification
496
Conte nts
11.8
11.9
Problem Areas Suitable for Expert Systems
Development of Expert Systems 498
Defining the Nature and Scope of the Problem 499
497
Identifying Proper Experts 499
Acquiring Knowledge 499
Selecting the Building Tools 499
Coding the System 501
Evaluating the System 501
.... APPLICATION CASE 11.5 Clinical Decision Support System for Tendon
Injuries 501
11.10 Concluding Remarks
Chapter Highlights
503
Questions for Discussion
502
•
504
Key Terms
•
503
Exercises
504
.... END·OF·CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Tax Collections Optimization
for New York State 504
References
505
Chapter 12 Knowledge Management and Collaborative Systems 507
12.1 Opening Vignette: Expertise Transfer System to Train
12.2
Future Army Personnel 508
Introduction to Knowledge Management
Knowledge Management Concepts and Definitions
Knowledge 513
12.3
512
513
Explicit and Tacit Knowledge 515
Approaches to Knowledge Management 516
The Process Approach to Knowledge Management 517
The Practice Approach to Knowledge Management 51 7
Hybrid Approaches to Knowledge Management 51 8
12.4
Knowledge Repositories 518
Information Technology (IT) in Knowledge
Management 520
The KMS Cyde 520
Components of KMS 521
Technologies That Support Knowledge Management
12.5
The Group Decision-Making Process 524
The Benefits and Limitations of Groupwork
12.6
524
Supporting Groupwork with Computerized Systems
An Overview of Group Support Systems (GSS) 526
Groupware
527
Time/Place Framework
12.7
521
Making Decisions in Groups: Characteristics, Process,
Benefits, and Dysfunctions 523
Characteristics of Groupwork 523
527
Tools for Indirect Support of Decision Making
Groupware Tools
528
528
526
xvii
xviii Contents
Groupware
12.8
530
Collaborative Workflow 530
Web 2.0 530
Wikis 531
Collaborative Networks 531
Direct Computerized Support for Decision Making:
From Group Decision Support Systems to Group Support
Systems 532
Group Decision Support Systems (GOSS) 532
Group Support Systems 533
How GOSS (or GSS) Improve Groupwork 533
Facilities for GOSS 534
Chapter Highlights
535
Questions for Discussion
~
•
Key Terms
536
•
536
Exercises
536
END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Solving Crimes by Sharing
Digital Forensic Knowledge
References
537
539
Part V Big Data and Future Directions for Business
Analytics 541
Chapter 13 Big Data and Analytics 542
13.1 Opening Vignette: Big Data Meets Big Science at CERN
13.2 Definition of Big Data 546
The Vs That Define Big Data
13.3
547
~ APPLICATION CASE 13.1 Big Data Analytics Helps Luxottica Improve
Its Marketing Effectiveness 550
Fundamentals of Big Data Analytics 551
Business Problems Addressed by Big Data Analytics 554
~ APPLICATION CASE 13.2 Top 5 Investment Bank Achieves Single
Source of Truth
13.4
555
Big Data Technologies
MapReduce 557
556
Why Use Map Reduce? 558
Hadoop 558
How Does Hadoop Work? 558
Hadoop Technical Components 559
Hadoop: The Pros and Cons 560
NoSQL
~
13.5
562
APPLICATION CASE 13.3 eBay's Big Data Solution
Data Scientist 565
Where Do Data Scientists Come From?
~
13.6
543
563
565
APPLICATION CASE 13.4 Big Data and Analytics in Politics
Big Data and Data Warehousing
Use Case(s) for Hadoop 570
Use Case(s) for Data Warehousing 571
569
568
Conte nts
13.7
13.8
13.9
The Gray Areas (Any One of the Two Would Do the Job)
Coexistence of Hadoop and Data Warehouse 572
Big Data Vendors 574
572
~
APPLICATION CASE 13.5 Dublin City Council Is Leveraging Big Data
to Reduce Traffic Congestion 575
~
APPLICATION CASE 13.6 Creditreform Boosts Credit Rating Quality
with Big Data Visual Analytics 580
Big Data and Stream Analytics 581
Stream Analytics Versus Perpetual Analytics 582
Critical Event Processing 582
Data Stream Mining 583
Applications of Stream Analytics 584
e-commerce 584
Telecommunications 584
~
APPLICATION CASE 13.7 Turning Machine-Generated Streaming Data
into Valuable Business Insights 585
Law Enforcement and Cyber Security
Power Industry 587
Financial Services 587
Health Sciences 587
Government 587
586
Chapter Highlights 588 • Key Terms 588
Questions for Discussion 588 • Exercises 589
~ END-OF-CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Discovery Health Turns Big
Data into Better Healthcare
References
589
591
Chapter 14 Business Analytics: Emerging Trends and Future
Impacts 592
14.1 Opening Vignette: Oklahoma Gas and Electric Employs
14.2
Analytics to Promote Smart Energy Use 593
Location-Based Analytics for Organizations 594
Geospatial Analytics 594
~
APPLICATION CASE 14.1 Great Clips Employs Spatial Analytics to
Shave Time in Location Decisions 596
A Multimedia Exercise in Analytics Employing Geospatial Analytics
Real-Time Location Intelligence 598
~ APPLICATION CASE 14.2 Quiznos Targets Customers for Its
Sandwiches
14.3
Analytics Applications for Consumers
~
14.4
14.5
599
600
APPLICATION CASE 14.3 A Life Coach in Your Pocket
Recommendation Engines 603
Web 2.0 and Online Social Networking 604
Representative Characteristics of Web 2.0 605
Social Networking 605
A Definition and Basic Information 606
Implications of Business and Enterprise Social Networks 606
601
597
xix
xx
Contents
14.6
14.7
14.8
14.9
Cloud Computing and Bl 607
Service-Oriented DSS 608
Data-as-a-Service (DaaS) 608
Information-as-a-Service (Information on Demand) (laaS) 611
Analytics-as-a-Service (AaaS) 611
Impacts of Analytics in Organizations: An Overview 613
New Organizational Units 613
Restructuring Business Processes and Virtual Teams 614
The Impacts of ADS Systems 614
Job Satisfaction 614
Job Stress and Anxiety 614
Analytics' Impact on Managers' Activities and Their Performance 615
Issues of Legality, Privacy, and Ethics 616
Legal Issues 616
Privacy 617
Recent Technology Issues in Privacy and Analytics 618
Ethics in Decision Making and Support 619
An Overview of the Analytics Ecosystem 620
Analytics Industry Clusters 620
Data Infrastructure Providers 620
Data Warehouse Industry 621
Middleware Industry 622
Data Aggregators/Distributors 622
Analytics-Focused Software Developers 622
Reporting/Analytics 622
Predictive Analytics 623
Prescriptive Analytics 623
Application Developers or System Integrators: Industry Specific or General
Analytics User Organizations 625
Analytics Industry Analysts and Influencers 627
Academic Providers and Certification Agencies 628
624
Chapter Highlights 629 • Key Terms 629
Questions for Discussion 629 • Exercises 630
~ END·OF·CHAPTER APPLICATION CASE Southern States Cooperative
Optimizes Its Catalog Campaign 630
References 632
Glossary
Index
634
648
PREFACE
Analytics has become the technology driver of this decade. Companies such as IBM,
Oracle, Microsoft, and others are creating new organizational units focused on analytics
that help businesses become more effective and efficient in their operations. Decision
makers are using more computerized tools to support their work. Even consumers are
using analytics tools directly or indirectly to make decisions on routine activities such as
shopping, healthcare, and entertainment. The field of decision support systems (DSS)/
business intelligence (BI) is evolving rapidly to become more focused on innovative applications of data streams that were not even captured some time back, much less analyzed
in any significant way. New applications turn up daily in healthcare, sports, entertainment, supply chain management, utilities, and virtually every industry imaginable.
The theme of this revised edition is BI and analytics for enterprise decision support.
In addition to traditional decision support applications, this edition expands the reader's
understanding of the various types of analytics by providing examples, products, services,
and exercises by discussing Web-related issues throughout the text. We highlight Web
intelligence/Web analytics, which parallel Bl/business analytics (BA) for e-commerce and
other Web applications. The book is supported by a Web site (pearsonhighered.com/
sharda) and also by an independent site at dssbibook.com. We will also provide links
to software tutorials through a special section of the Web site.
The purpose of this book is to introduce the reader to these technologies that are
generally called analytics but have been known by other names. The core technology
consists of DSS, BI, and various decision-making techniques. We use these terms interchangeably. This book presents the fundamentals of the techniques and the manner in
which these systems are constructed and used. We follow an EEE approach to introducing these topics: Exposure, Experience, and Explore. The book primarily provides
exposure to various analytics techniques and their applications. The idea is that a student
will be inspired to learn from how other organizations have employed analytics to make
decisions or to gain a competitive edge. We believe that such exposure to what is being
done with analytics and how it can be achieved is the key component of learning about
analytics. In describing the techniques, we also introduce specific software tools that can
be used for developing such applications. The book is not limited to any one software
tool , so the students can experience these techniques using any number of available
software tools. Specific suggestions are given in each chapter, but the student and the
professor are able to use this book with many different software tools. Our book's companion Web site will include specific software guides, but students can gain experience
with these techniques in many different ways. Finally, we hope that this exposure and
experience enable and motivate readers to explore the potential of these techniques in
their own domain. To facilitate such exploration, we include exercises that direct them
to Teradata University Network and other sites as well that include team-oriented exercises where appropriate. We will also highlight new and innovative applications that we
learn about on the book's companion Web sites.
Most of the specific improvements made in this tenth edition concentrate on three
areas: reorganization, content update, and a sharper focus. Despite the many changes, we
have preserved the comprehensiveness and user friendliness that have made the text a
market leader. We have also reduced the book's size by eliminating older and redundant
material and by combining material that was not used by a majority of professors. At the
same time, we have kept several of the classical references intact. Finally, we present
accurate and updated material that is not available in any other text. We next describe the
changes in the tenth edition.
xxi
xxii
Preface
WHAT'S NEW IN THE TENTH EDITION?
With the goal of improving the text, this edition marks a major reorganization of the text
to reflect the focus on analytics. The last two editions transformed the book from the
traditional DSS to BI and fostered a tight linkage with the Teradata University Network
(TUN). This edition is now organized around three major types of analytics. The new
edition has many timely additions , and the dated content has been deleted. The following
major specific changes have been made:
• New organization. The book is now organized around three types of analytics:
descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive, a classification promoted by INFORMS. After
introducing the topics of DSS/ BI and analytics in Chapter 1 and covering the foundations of decision making and decision support in Chapter 2, the book begins with an
overview of data warehousing and data foundations in Chapter 3. This part then covers descriptive or reporting analytics, specifically, visualization and business performance measurement. Chapters 5-8 cover predictive analytics. Chapters 9-12 cover
prescriptive and decision analytics as well as other decision support systems topics.
Some of the coverage from Chapter 3-4 in previous editions will now be found in
the new Chapters 9 and 10. Chapter 11 covers expert systems as well as the new
rule-based systems that are commonly built for implementing analytics. Chapter 12
combines two topics that were key chapters in earlier editions-knowledge management and collaborative systems. Chapter 13 is a new chapter that introduces big data
and analytics. Chapter 14 concludes the book with discussion of emerging trends
and topics in business analytics, including location intelligence, mobile computing,
cloud-based analytics, and privacy/ethical considerations in analytics. This chapter
also includes an overview of the analytics ecosystem to help the user explore all of
the different ways one can participate and grow in the analytics environment. Thus,
the book marks a significant departure from the earlier editions in organization. Of
course, it is still possible to teach a course with a traditional DSS focus with this book
by covering Chapters 1-4, Chapters 9-12, and possibly Chapter 14.
• New chapters.
The following chapters have been added:
Chapter 8, "Web Analytics, Web Mining, and Social Analytics." This chapter
covers the popular topics of Web analytics and social media analytics. It is an
almost entirely new chapter (95% new material).
Chapter 13, "Big Data and Analytics." This chapter introduces the hot topics of
Big Data and analytics. It covers the basics of major components of Big Data techniques and charcteristics. It is also a new chapter (99% new material) .
Chapter 14, "Business Analytics: Emerging Trends and Future Impacts."
This chapter examines several new phenomena that are already changing or are
likely to change analytics. It includes coverage of geospatial in analytics, locationbased analytics applications, consumer-oriented analytical applications, mobile platforms , and cloud-based analytics. It also updates some coverage from the previous
edition on ethical and privacy considerations. It concludes with a major discussion
of the analytics ecosystem (90% new material).
• Streamlined coverage. We have made the book shorter by keeping the most
commonly used content. We also mostly eliminated the preformatted online content. Instead, we will use a Web site to provide updated content and links on a
regular basis. We also reduced the number of references in each chapter.
• Revamped author team. Building upon the excellent content that has been
prepared by the authors of the previous editions (Turban, Aronson, Liang, King,
Sharda, and Delen), this edition was revised by Ramesh Sharda and Dursun Delen.
Preface xxiii
Both Ramesh and Dursun have worked extensively in DSS and analytics and have
industry as well as research experience.
• A live-update Web site. Adopters of the textbook will have access to a Web site that
will include links to news stories, software, tutorials, and even YouTube videos related
to topics covered in the book. This site will be accessible at http://dssbibook.com.
• Revised and updated content. Almost all of the chapters have new opening
vignettes and closing cases that are based on recent stories and events. In addition,
application cases throughout the book have been updated to include recent examples of applications of a specific technique/model. These application case stories
now include suggested questions for discussion to encourage class discussion as
well as further exploration of the specific case and related materials . New Web site
links have been added throughout the book. We also deleted many older product
links and references. Finally, most chapters have new exercises, Internet assignments, and discussion questions throughout.
Specific changes made in chapters that have been retained from the previous editions are summarized next:
Chapter 1, "An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision
Support," introduces the three types of analytics as proposed by INFORMS: descriptive,
predictive, and prescriptive analytics. A noted earlier, this classification is used in guiding
the complete reorganization of the book itself. It includes about 50 percent new material.
All of the case stories are new.
Chapter 2, "Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making," combines material from earlier Chapters 1, 2, and 3 to provide a basic foundation for decision making in
general and computer-supported decision making in particular. It eliminates some duplication that was present in Chapters 1-3 of the previous editions. It includes 35 percent
new material. Most of the cases are new.
Chapter 3, "Data Warehousing"
• 30 percent new material, including the cases
• New opening case
• Mostly new cases throughout
• NEW: A historic perspective to data warehousing-how did we get here?
• Better coverage of multidimensional modeling (star schema and snowflake schema)
• An updated coverage on the future of data warehousing
Chapter 4, "Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance
Management"
• 60 percent of the material is new-especially in visual analytics and reporting
• Most of the cases are new
Chapter 5, "Data Mining"
• 25 percent of the material is new
• Most of the cases are new
Chapter 6, "Techniques for Predictive Modeling"
• 55 percent of the material is new
• Most of the cases are new
• New sections on SVM and kNN
Chapter 7, "Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis"
• 50 percent of the material is new
• Most of the cases are new
• New section (1/ 3 of the chapter) on sentiment analysis
xxiv Preface
Chapter 8, "Web Analytics, Web Mining, and Social Analytics" (New Chapter)
• 95 percent of the material is new
Chapter 9, "Model-Based Decision Making: Optimization and Multi-Criteria Systems"
• All new cases
• Expanded coverage of analytic hierarchy process
• New examples of mixed-integer programming applications and exercises
• About 50 percent new material
In addition, all the Microsoft Excel-related coverage has been updated to work with
Microsoft Excel 2010.
Chapter 10, "Modeling and Analysis: Heuristic Search Methods and Simulation"
• This chapter now introduces genetic algorithms and various types of simulation
models
• It includes new coverage of other types of simulation modeling such as agent-based
modeling and system dynamics modeling
• New cases throughout
• About 60 percent new material
Chapter 11, "Automated Decision Systems and Expert Systems"
• Expanded coverage of automated decision systems including examples from the
airline industry
• New examples of expert systems
• New cases
• About 50 percent new material
Chapter 12, "Knowledge Management and Collaborative Systems"
• Significantly condensed coverage of these two topics combined into one chapter
• New examples of KM applications
• About 25 percent new material
Chapters 13 and 14 are mostly new chapters, as described earlier.
We have retained many of the enhancements made in the last editions and updated
the content. These are summarized next:
• Links to Teradata University Network (TUN). Most chapters include new links
to TUN (teradatauniversitynetwork.com). We encourage the instructors to register and join teradatauniversitynetwork.com and explore various content available
through the site. The cases, white papers, and software exercises available through
TUN will keep your class fresh and timely.
• Book title. As is already evident, the book's title and focus have changed
substantially.
• Software support. The TUN Web site provides software support at no charge.
It also provides links to free data mining and other software. In addition, the site
provides exercises in the use of such software.
THE SUPPLEMENT PACKAGE: PEARSONHIGHERED.COM/SHARDA
A comprehensive and flexible technology-support package is available to enhance the
teaching and learning experience. The following instructor and student supplements are
available on the book's Web site, pearsonhighered.com/sharda:
• Instructor's Manual. The Instructor's Manual includes learning objectives for the
entire course and for each chapter, answers to the questions and exercises at the end
of each chapter, and teaching suggestions (including instructions for projects). The
Instructor's Manual is available on the secure faculty section of pearsonhighered
.com/sharda.
Preface
• Test Item File and TestGen Software. The Test Item File is a comprehensive
collection of true/false, multiple-choice, fill-in-the-blank, and essay questions. The
questions are rated by difficulty level, and the answers are referenced by book page
number. The Test Item File is available in Microsoft Word and in TestGen. Pearson
Education's test-generating software is available from www.pearsonhighered.
com/ire. The software is PC/MAC compatible and preloaded with all of the Test
Item File questions. You can manually or randomly view test questions and dragand-drop to create a test. You can add or modify test-bank questions as needed. Our
TestGens are converted for use in BlackBoard, WebCT, Moodie, D2L, and Angel.
These conversions can be found on pearsonhighered.com/sharda. The TestGen
is also available in Respondus and can be found on www.respondus.com.
• PowerPoint slides. PowerPoint slides are available that illuminate and build
on key concepts in the text. Faculty can download the PowerPoint slides from
pearsonhighered.com/sharda.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Many individuals have provided suggestions and criticisms since the publication of the
first edition of this book. Dozens of students participated in class testing of various chapters, software, and problems and assisted in collecting material. It is not possible to name
everyone who participated in this project, but our thanks go to all of them. Certain individuals made significant contributions, and they deserve special recognition.
First, we appreciate the efforts of those individuals who provided formal reviews of
the first through tenth editions (school affiliations as of the date of review):
Robert Blanning, Vanderbilt University
Ranjit Bose, University of New Mexico
Warren Briggs, Suffolk University
Lee Roy Bronner, Morgan State University
Charles Butler, Colorado State University
Sohail S. Chaudry, University of Wisconsin-La Crosse
Kathy Chudoba, Florida State University
Wingyan Chung, University of Texas
Woo Young Chung, University of Memphis
Paul "Buddy" Clark, South Carolina State University
Pi'Sheng Deng, California State University-Stanislaus
Joyce Elam, Florida International University
Kurt Engemann, Iona College
Gary Farrar, Jacksonville University
George Federman, Santa Clara City College
Jerry Fjermestad, New Jersey Institute of Technology
Joey George, Florida State University
Paul Gray, Claremont Graduate School
Orv Greynholds, Capital College (Laurel, Maryland)
Martin Grossman, Bridgewater State College
Ray Jacobs, Ashland University
Leonard Jessup , Indiana University
Jeffrey Johnson , Utah State University
Jahangir Karimi, University of Colorado Denver
Saul Kassicieh, University of New Mexico
Anand S. Kunnathur, University of Toledo
XXV
xxvi Preface
Shao-ju Lee, California State University at Northridge
Yair Levy, Nova Southeastern University
Hank Lucas, New York University
Jane Mackay, Texas Christian University
George M. Marakas, University of Maryland
Dick Mason, Southern Methodist University
Nick McGaughey, San Jose State University
Ido Millet, Pennsylvania State University-Erie
Benjamin Mittman, Northwestern University
Larry Moore, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
Simitra Mukherjee, Nova Southeastern University
Marianne Murphy, Northeastern University
Peter Mykytyn, Southern Illinois University
Natalie Nazarenko, SUNY College at Fredonia
Souren Paul, Southern Illinois University
Joshua Pauli, Dakota State University
Roger Alan Pick, University of Missouri-St. Louis
W. "RP" Raghupaphi, California State University-Chico
Loren Rees, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University
David Russell, Western New England College
Steve Ruth, George Mason University
Vartan Safarian, Winona State University
Glenn Shephard, San Jose State University
Jung P. Shim, Mississippi State University
Meenu Singh, Murray State University
Randy Smith, University of Virginia
James T.C. Teng, University of South Carolina
John VanGigch, California State University at Sacramento
David Van Over, University of Idaho
Paul J.A. van Vliet, University of Nebraska at Omaha
B. S. Vijayaraman, University of Akron
Howard Charles Walton, Gettysburg College
Diane B. Walz, University of Texas at San Antonio
Paul R. Watkins, University of Southern California
Randy S. Weinberg, Saint Cloud State University
Jennifer Williams, University of Southern Indiana
Steve Zanakis, Florida International University
Fan Zhao, Florida Gulf Coast University
Several individuals contributed material to the text or the supporting material.
Susan Baxley and Dr. David Schrader of Teradata provided special help in identifying
new TUN content for the book and arranging permissions for the same. Peter Horner,
editor of OR/MS Today, allowed us to summarize new application stories from OR/
MS Today and Analytics Magazine. We also thank INFORMS for their permission to
highlight content from Inteifaces. Prof. Rick Wilson contributed some examples and
exercise questions for Chapter 9. Assistance from Natraj Ponna, Daniel Asamoah, Amir
Hassan-Zadeh, Kartik Dasika, Clara Gregory, and Amy Wallace (all of Oklahoma State
University) is gratefully acknowledged for this edition. We also acknowledge Narges
Kasiri (Ithaca College) for the write-up on system dynamics modeling and Jongswas
Chongwatpol (NIDA, Thailand) for the material on SIMIO software. For the previous edition, we acknowledge the contributions of Dave King QDA Software Group, Inc.) and
Preface
Jerry Wagner (University of Nebraska-Omaha). Major contributors for earlier editions
include Mike Gou! (Arizona State University) and Leila A. Halawi (Bethune-Cookman
College), who provided material for the chapter on data warehousing; Christy Cheung
(Hong Kong Baptist University), who contributed to the chapter on knowledge management; Linda Lai (Macau Polytechnic University of China); Dave King QDA Software
Group, Inc.); Lou Frenzel, an independent consultant whose books Crash Course in
Artificial Intelligence and Expert Systems and Understanding of Expert Systems (both
published by Howard W. Sams, New York, 1987) provided material for the early editions; Larry Medsker (American University), who contributed substantial material on neural networks; and Richard V. McCarthy (Quinnipiac University), who performed major
revisions in the seventh edition.
Previous editions of the book have also benefited greatly from the efforts of many
individuals who contributed advice and interesting material (such as problems), gave
feedback on material, or helped with class testing. These individuals are Warren Briggs
(Suffolk University), Frank DeBalough (University of Southern California), Mei-Ting
Cheung (University of Hong Kong), Alan Dennis (Indiana University), George Easton
(San Diego State University), Janet Fisher (California State University, Los Angeles),
David Friend (Pilot Software, Inc.), the late Paul Gray (Claremont Graduate School),
Mike Henry (OSU), Dustin Huntington (Exsys , Inc.), Subramanian Rama Iyer (Oklahoma
State University), Angie Jungermann (Oklahoma State University), Elena Karahanna
(The University of Georgia), Mike McAulliffe (The University of Georgia), Chad Peterson
(The University of Georgia), Neil Rabjohn (York University), Jim Ragusa (University of
Central Florida) , Alan Rowe (University of Southern California), Steve Ruth (George
Mason University), Linus Schrage (University of Chicago), Antonie Stam (University of
Missouri), Ron Swift (NCR Corp.), Merril Warkentin (then at Northeastern University),
Paul Watkins (The University of Southern California), Ben Mortagy (Claremont Graduate
School of Management), Dan Walsh (Bellcore), Richard Watson (The University of
Georgia), and the many other instructors and students who have provided feedback.
Several vendors cooperated by providing development and/or demonstration software: Expert Choice, Inc. (Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania), Nancy Clark of Exsys,
Inc. (Albuquerque, New Mexico), Jim Godsey of GroupSystems, Inc. (Broomfield,
Colorado), Raimo Hamalainen of Helsinki University of Technology, Gregory PiatetskyShapiro of KDNuggets .com, Logic Programming Associates (UK), Gary Lynn of
NeuroDimension Inc. (Gainesville, Florida), Palisade Software (Newfield, New York),
Jerry Wagner of Planners Lab (Omaha, Nebraska) , Promised Land Technologies (New
Haven, Connecticut), Salford Systems (La Jolla , California), Sense Networks (New York,
New York), Gary Miner of StatSoft, Inc. (Tulsa, Oklahoma), Ward Systems Group, Inc.
(Frederick, Maryland), Idea Fisher Systems, Inc. (Irving, California), and Wordtech
Systems (Orinda, California).
Special thanks to the Teradata University Network and especially to Hugh Watson,
Michael Gou!, and Susan Baxley, Program Director, for their encouragement to tie this
book with TUN and for providing useful material for the book.
Many individuals helped us with administrative matters and editing, proofreading,
and preparation. The project began with Jack Repcheck (a former Macmillan editor), who
initiated this project with the support of Hank Lucas (New York University). Judy Lang
collaborated with all of us, provided editing, and guided us during the entire project
through the eighth edition.
Finally, the Pearson team is to be commended: Executive Editor Bob Horan, who
orchestrated this project; Kitty Jarrett, who copyedited the manuscript; and the production team, Tom Benfatti at Pearson, George and staff at Integra Software Services, who
transformed the manuscript into a book.
xxvii
xxviii Preface
We would like to thank all these individuals and corporations. Without their help,
the creation of this book would not have been possible. Ramesh and Dursun want to
specifically acknowledge the contributions of previous coauthors Janine Aronson, David
King, and T. P. Liang, whose original contributions constitute significant components of
the book.
R.S.
D.D.
E.T
Note that Web site URLs are dynamic. As this book went to press, we verified that all the cited Web sites were
active and valid. Web sites to which we refer in the text sometimes change or are discontinued because companies change names, are bought or sold, merge, or fail. Sometimes Web sites are down for maintenance, repair,
or redesign. Most organizations have dropped the initial "www" designation for their sites, but some still use
it. If you have a problem connecting to a Web site that we mention, please be patient and simply run a Web
search to try to identify the new site. Most times, the new site can be found quickly. Some sites also require a
free registration before allowing you to see the content. We apologize in advance for this inconvenience.
ABOUT THE AUTHORS
Ramesh Sharda (M.B.A., Ph.D., University of Wisconsin-Madison) is director of the
Ph.D. in Business for Executives Program and Institute for Research in Information
Systems (IRIS), ConocoPhillips Chair of Management of Technology, and a Regents
Professor of Management Science and Information Systems in the Spears School of
Business at Oklahoma State University (OSU) . About 200 papers describing his research
have been published in major journals, including Operations Research, Management
Science, Information Systems Research, Decision Support Systems, and journal of MIS.
He cofounded the AIS SIG on Decision Support Systems and Knowledge Management
(SIGDSS). Dr. Sharda serves on several editorial boards, including those of INFORMS
journal on Computing, Decision Support Systems, and ACM Transactions on Management
Information Systems. He has authored and edited several textbooks and research books
and serves as the co-editor of several book series (Integrated Series in Information
Systems, Operations Research/ Computer Science Interfaces, and Annals of Information
Systems) with Springer. He is also currently serving as the executive director of the
Teradata University Network. His current research interests are in decision support systems, business analytics, and technologies for managing information overload.
Dursun Delen (Ph.D., Oklahoma State University) is the Spears and Patterson Chairs in
Business Analytics, Director of Research for the Center for Health Systems Innovation,
and Professor of Management Science and Information Systems in the Spears School of
Business at Oklahoma State University (OSU). Prior to his academic career, he worked
for a privately owned research and consultancy company, Knowledge Based Systems
Inc. , in College Station, Texas, as a research scientist for five years, during which he led
a number of decision support and other information systems-related research projects
funded by federal agencies such as DoD, NASA, NIST, and DOE. Dr. Delen's research has
appeared in major journals including Decision Support Systems, Communications of the
ACM, Computers and Operations Research, Computers in Industry, journal of Production
Operations Management, Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, and Expert Systems with
Applications, among others. He recently published four textbooks: Advanced Data Mining
Techniques with Springer, 2008; Decision Support and Business Intelligence Systems with
Prentice Hall, 2010; Business Intelligence: A Managerial Approach , with Prentice Hall,
2010; and Practical Text Mining, with Elsevier, 2012. He is often invited to national and
international conferences for keynote addresses on topics related to data/ text mining,
business intelligence, decision support systems, and knowledge management. He served
as the general co-chair for the 4th International Conference on Network Computing and
Advanced Information Management (September 2-4, 2008, in Seoul, South Korea) and
regularly chairs tracks and mini-tracks at various information systems conferences. He is
the associate editor-in-chief for International journal of Experimental Algorithms, associate editor for International journal of RF Technologies and journal of Decision Analytics,
and is on the editorial boards of five other technical journals. His research and teaching
interests are in data and text mining, decision support systems, knowledge management,
business intelligence, and enterprise modeling.
Efraim Turban (M.B.A., Ph .D., University of California, Berkeley) is a visiting scholar
at the Pacific Institute for Information System Management, University of Hawaii. Prior
to this, he was on the staff of several universities, including City University of Hong
Kong; Lehigh University; Florida International University; California State University, Long
xxix
XXX
About the Authors
Beach; Eastern Illinois University; and the University of Southern California. Dr. Turban
is the author of more than 100 refereed papers published in leading journals, such as
Management Science, MIS Quarterly, and Decision Support Systems. He is also the author
of 20 books, including Electronic Commerce: A Managerial Perspective and Information
Technology for Management. He is also a consultant to major corporations worldwide.
Dr. Turban's current areas of interest are Web-based decision support systems, social
commerce, and collaborative decision making.
P
A
R
T
Decision Making and Analytics
An Overview
LEARNING OBJECTIVES FOR PART I
• Understand the need for business analytics
• Understand the foundations and key issues of
managerial decision making
• Learn the major frameworks of computerized
decision support: analytics, decision support
systems (DSS), and business intelligence (BI)
• Understand the major categories and
applications of business analytics
This book deals with a collection of computer technologies that support managerial work-essentially,
decision making. These technologies have had a profound impact on corporate strategy, performance, and competitiveness. These techniques broadly encompass analytics, business intelligence,
and decision support systems, as shown throughout the book. In Part I, we first provide an overview
of the whole book in one chapter. We cover several topics in this chapter. The first topic is managerial
decision making and its computerized support; the second is frameworks for decision support. We
then introduce business analytics and business intelligence. We also provide examples of applications
of these analytical techniques, as well as a preview of the entire book. The second chapter within
Part I introduces the foundational methods for decision making and relates these to computerized
decision support. It also covers the components and technologies of decision support systems.
1
An Overview of Business Intelligence,
Analytics, and Decision Support
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Understand today's turbulent business
environment and describe how
organizations survive and even excel in
such an environment (solving problems
and exploiting opportunities)
• Understand the need for computerized
support of managerial decision making
• Understand an early framework for
managerial decision making
• Learn the conceptual foundations of
the decision support systems (DSS 1)
methodology
• Describe the business intelligence (BI)
methodology and concepts and relate
them to DSS
• Understand the various types of analytics
• List the major tools of computerized
decision support
T
he business environment (climate) is constantly changing, and it is becoming more
and more complex. Organizations, private and public, are under pressures that
force them to respond quickly to changing conditions and to be innovative in the
way they operate. Such activities require organizations to be agile and to make frequent
and quick strategic, tactical, and operational decisions, some of which are very complex.
Making such decisions may require considerable amounts of relevant data, information,
and knowledge. Processing these, in the framework of the needed decisions, must be
done quickly, frequently in real time, and usually requires some computerized support.
This book is about using business analytics as computerized support for managerial decision making. It concentrates on both the theoretical and conceptual foundations of decision support, as well as on the commercial tools and techniques that are
available. This introductory chapter provides more details of these topics as well as an
overview of the book. This chapter has the following sections:
1.1 Opening Vignette: Magpie Sensing Employs Analytics to Manage a Vaccine
Supply Chain Effectively and Safely 3
1.2 Changing Business Environments and Computerized Decision Support 5
'The acronym DSS is treated as both singular and plural throughout this book. Similarly, other acronyms, such
as MIS and GSS, designate both plural and singular forms. This is also true of the word analytics.
2
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
1.3 Managerial Decision Making
7
1.4 Information Systems Support for Decision Making 9
1.5 An Early Framework for Computerized Decision Support
1.6 The Concept of Decision Support Systems (DSS) 13
11
1. 7 A Framework for Business Intelligence (BI) 14
1.8 Business Analytics Overview 19
1.9 Brief Introduction to Big Data Analytics 27
1.10 Plan of the Book 29
1.11 Resources, Links, and the Teradata University Network Connection
1.1
31
OPENING VIGNETTE: Magpie Sensing Employs
Analytics to Manage a Vaccine Supply Chain
Effectively and Safely
Cold chain in healthcare is defined as the temperature-controlled supply chain involving a
system of transporting and storing vaccines and pharmaceutical drugs. It consists of three
major components-transport and storage equipment, trained personnel, and efficient
management procedures. The majority of the vaccines in the cold chain are typically maintained at a temperature of 35--46 degrees Fahrenheit [2-8 degrees Centigrade]. Maintaining
cold chain integrity is extremely important for healthcare product manufacturers.
Especially for the vaccines, improper storage and handling practices that compromise
vaccine viability prove a costly, time-consuming affair. Vaccines must be stored properly
from manufacture until they are available for use. Any extreme temperatures of heat or
cold will reduce vaccine potency; such vaccines, if administered, might not yield effective
results or could cause adverse effects.
Effectively maintaining the temperatures of storage units throughout the healthcare
supply chain in real time-Le., beginning from the gathering of the resources, manufacturing, distribution, and dispensing of the products-is the most effective solution desired
in the cold chain. Also, the location-tagged real-time environmental data about the storage
units helps in monitoring the cold chain for spoiled products. The chain of custody can
be easily identified to assign product liability.
A study conducted by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ( CDC) looked at
the handling of cold chain vaccines by 45 healthcare providers around United States and
reported that three-quarters of the providers experienced serious cold chain violations.
A WAY TOWARD A POSSIBLE SOLUTION
Magpie Sensing, a start-up project under Ebers Smith and Douglas Associated LLC, provides a suite of cold chain monitoring and analysis technologies for the healthcare industry. It is a shippable, wireless temperature and humidity monitor that provides real-time,
location-aware tracking of cold chain products during shipment. Magpie Sensing's solutions rely on rich analytics algorithms that leverage the data gathered from the monitoring devices to improve the efficiency of cold chain processes and predict cold storage
problems before they occur.
Magpie sensing applies all three types of analytical techniques-descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive analytics-to tum the raw data returned from the monitoring devices
into actionable recommendations and warnings.
The properties of the cold storage system, which include the set point of the storage
system's thermostat, the typical range of temperature values in the storage system, and
3
4
Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Oveiview
the duty cycle of the system's compressor, are monitored and reported in real time. This
information helps trained personnel to ensure that the storage unit is properly configured
to store a particular product. All the temperature information is displayed on a Web dashboard that shows a graph of the temperature inside the specific storage unit.
Based on information derived from the monitoring devices, Magpie's predictive analytic algorithms can determine the set point of the storage unit's thermostat and alert the
system's users if the system is incorrectly configured, depending upon the various types
of products stored. This offers a solution to the users of consumer refrigerators where
the thermostat is not temperature graded. Magpie's system also sends alerts about possible temperature violations based on the storage unit's average temperature and subsequent compressor cycle runs, which may drop the temperature below the freezing point.
Magpie's predictive analytics further report possible human errors, such as failure to shut
the storage unit doors or the presence of an incomplete seal, by analyzing the temperature trend and alerting users via Web interface, text message, or audible alert before the
temperature bounds are actually violated. In a similar way, a compressor or a power
failure can be detected; the estimated time before the storage unit reaches an unsafe temperature also is reported, which prepares the users to look for backup solutions such as
using dry ice to restore power.
In addition to predictive analytics, Magpie Sensing's analytics systems can provide
prescriptive recommendations for improving the cold storage processes and business
decision making. Prescriptive analytics help users dial in the optimal temperature setting,
which helps to achieve the right balance between freezing and spoilage risk; this, in turn,
provides a cushion-time to react to the situation before the products spoil. Its prescriptive
analytics also gather useful meta-information on cold storage units, including the times of
day that are busiest and periods where the system's doors are opened, which can be used
to provide additional design plans and institutional policies that ensure that the system is
being properly maintained and not overused.
Furthermore, prescriptive analytics can be used to guide equipment purchase decisions by constantly analyzing the performance of current storage units. Based on the
storage system's efficiency, decisions on distributing the products across available storage
units can be made based on the product's sensitivity.
Using Magpie Sensing's cold chain analytics, additional manufacturing time and
expenditure can be eliminated by ensuring that product safety can be secured throughout
the supply chain and effective products can be administered to the patients. Compliance
with state and federal safety regulations can be better achieved through automatic data
gathering and reporting about the products involved in the cold chain.
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. What information is provided by the descriptive analytics employed at Magpie
Sensing?
2. What type of support is provided by the predictive analytics employed at Magpie
Sensing?
3. How does prescriptive analytics help in business decision making?
4. In what ways can actionable information be reported in real time to concerned
users of the system?
5. In what other situations might real-time monitoring applications be needed?
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETIE
This vignette illustrates how data from a business process can be used to generate insights
at various levels. First, the graphical analysis of the data (termed reporting analytics) allows
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
users to get a good feel for the situation. Then, additional analysis using data mining
techniques can be used to estimate what future behavior would be like. This is the domain
of predictive analytics. Such analysis can then be taken to create specific recommendations
for operators. This is an example of what we call prescriptive analytics. Finally, this opening vignette also suggests that innovative applications of analytics can create new business
ventures. Identifying opportunities for applications of analytics and assisting with decision
making in specific domains is an emerging entrepreneurial opportunity.
Sources: Magpiesensing.com, "Magpie Sensing Cold Chain Analytics and Monitoring," magpiesensing.com/
wp-content/uploads/2013/01/ColdChainAnalyticsMagpieSensing-Whitepaper.pdf (accessed July 2013);
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Vaccine Storage and Handling, http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/pubs/
pinkbook/vac-storage.html#storage (accessed July 2013); A. Zaleski, "Magpie Analytics System Tracks ColdChain Products to Keep Vaccines, Reagents Fresh" (2012), technicallybaltimore.com/profiles/startups/magpieanalytics-system-track.s-cold-chain-products-to-keep-vaccines-reagents-fresh (accessed February 2013).
1.2
CHANGING BUSINESS ENVIRONMENTS AND COMPUTERIZED
DECISION SUPPORT
The opening vignette illustrates how a company can employ technologies to make sense
of data and make better decisions. Companies are moving aggressively to computerized
support of their operations. To understand why companies are embracing computerized support, including business intelligence, we developed a model called the Business
Pressures-Responses-Support Model, which is shown in Figure 1.1.
The Business Pressures-Responses-Support Model
The Business Pressures-Responses-Support Model, as its name indicates, has three components: business pressures that result from today's business climate, responses (actions
taken) by companies to counter the pressures (or to take advantage of the opportunities
available in the environment), and computerized support that facilitates the monitoring
of the environment and enhances the response actions taken by organizations.
Decisions and
Support
Organization
Responses
Business
Environmental Factors
Strategy
Analyses
.
Predictions
Decisions
Partners' collaboration
Globalization
Pressures
Real-time response
i i i
Agility
Integrated
Increased productivity
computerized
Competition
New vendors
decision
Etc.
New business models
support
Customer demand
Government regulations
Market conditions
Opportunities
Etc.
Business
intelligence
FIGURE 1.1
The Business Pressures-Responses-Support Model.
5
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Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
The environment in which organizations operate today
is becoming more and more complex. This complexity creates opportunities on the one
hand and problems on the other. Take globalization as an example. Today, you can easily find suppliers and customers in many countries, which means you can buy cheaper
materials and sell more of your products and services; great opportunities exist. However,
globalization also means more and stronger competitors. Business environment factors
can be divided into four major categories: markets, consumer demands, technology, and
societal. These categories are summarized in Table 1.1.
Note that the intensity of most of these factors increases with time, leading to
more pressures, more competition, and so on. In addition, organizations and departments
within organizations face decreased budgets and amplified pressures from top managers
to increase performance and profit. In this kind of environment, managers must respond
quickly, innovate, and be agile. Let's see how they do it.
THE BUSINESS ENVIRONMENT
ORGANIZATIONAL RESPONSES: BE REACTIVE, ANTICIPATIVE, ADAPTIVE, AND PROACTIVE
Both private and public organizations are aware of today's business environment and
pressures. They use different actions to counter the pressures. Vodafone New Zealand
Ltd (Krivda, 2008), for example, turned to BI to improve communication and to support
executives in its effort to retain existing customers and increase revenue from these customers. Managers may take other actions, including the following:
• Employ strategic planning.
• Use new and innovative business models.
• Restructure business processes.
• Participate in business alliances.
• Improve corporate information systems.
• Improve partnership relationships.
TABLE 1.1
Business Environment Factors That Create Pressures on Organizations
Factor
Description
Markets
Strong competition
Expanding global markets
Booming electronic markets on the Internet
Innovative marketing methods
Opportunities for outsourcing with IT support
Need for real-time, on-demand transactions
Consumer demands
Desire for customization
Desire for quality, diversity of products, and speed of delivery
Customers getting powerful and less loyal
Technology
More innovations, new products, and new services
Increasing obsolescence rate
Increasing information overload
Social networking, Web 2.0 and beyond
Societal
Growing government regulations and deregulation
Workforce more diversified, older, and composed of more women
Prime concerns of homeland security and terrorist attacks
Necessity of Sarbanes-Oxley Act and other reporting-related legislation
Increasing social responsibility of companies
Greater emphasis on sustainability
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
• Encourage innovation and creativity.
• Improve customer service and relationships.
• Employ social media and mobile platforms for e-commerce and beyond.
• Move to make-to-order production and on-demand manufacturing and services.
• Use new IT to improve communication, data access (discovery of information), and
collaboration.
• Respond quickly to competitors' actions (e.g., in pricing, promotions, new products
and services).
• Automate many tasks of white-collar employees.
• Automate certain decision processes, especially those dealing with customers.
• Improve decision making by employing analytics.
Many, if not all, of these actions require some computerized support. These and other
response actions are frequently facilitated by computerized decision support (DSS).
CLOSING THE STRATEGY GAP One of the major objectives of computerized decision
support is to facilitate closing the gap between the current performance of an organization and its desired performance, as expressed in its mission, objectives, and goals,
and the strategy to achieve them. In order to understand why computerized support
is needed and how it is provided, especially for decision-making support, let's look at
managerial decision making.
SECTION 1.2 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. List the components of and explain the Business Pressures-Responses-Support
Model.
2. What are some of the major factors in today's business environment?
3. What are some of the major response activities that organizations take?
1.3
MANAGERIAL DECISION MAKING
Management is a process by which organizational goals are achieved by using
resources . The resources are considered inputs, and attainment of goals is viewed as
the output of the process. The degree of success of the organization and the manager
is often measured by the ratio of outputs to inputs. This ratio is an indication of the
organization's productivity, which is a reflection of the organizational and managerial
pe,fonnance.
The level of productivity or the success of management depends on the performance of managerial functions, such as planning, organizing, directing, and controlling. To perform their functions , managers engage in a continuous process of making
decisions. Making a decision means selecting the best alternative from two or more
solutions.
The Nature of Managers' Work
Mintzberg's (2008) classic study of top managers and several replicated studies suggest
that managers perform 10 major roles that can be classified into three major categories:
interpersonal, infonnational, and decisional (see Table 1.2).
To perform these roles, managers need information that is delivered efficiently and
in a timely manner to personal computers (PCs) on their desktops and to mobile devices.
This information is delivered by networks, generally via Web technologies.
In addition to obtaining information necessary to better perform their roles, managers use computers directly to support and improve decision making, which is a key task
7
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Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
TABLE 1.2
Mintzberg's 10 Managerial Roles
Role
Interpersonal
Figurehead
Description
Is symbolic head; obliged to perform a number of routine duties of a
legal or social nature
Leader
Is responsible for the motivation and activation of subordinates;
responsible for staffing, training, and associated duties
Liaison
Maintains self-developed network of outside contacts and informers
who provide favors and information
Informational
Monitor
Seeks and receives a wide variety of special information (much of it
current) to develop a thorough understanding of the organization
and environment; emerges as the nerve center of the organization's
internal and external information
Disseminator
Transmits information received from outsiders or from subordinates to
members of the organization; some of this information is factual,
and some involves interpretation and integration
Spokesperson
Transmits information to outsiders about the organization's plans,
policies, actions, results, and so forth; serves as an expert on the
organization's industry
Decisional
Entrepreneur
Disturbance handler
Resource allocator
Negotiator
Searches the organization and its environment for opportunities and
initiates improvement projects to bring about change; supervises
design of certain projects
Is responsible for corrective action when the organization faces
important, unexpected disturbances
Is responsible for the allocation of organizational resources of all
kinds; in effect, is responsible for the making or approval of all
significant organizational decisions
Is responsible for representing the organization at major negotiations
Sources: Compiled from H. A. Mintzberg, The Nature of Managerial Work. Prentice Hall, Englew ood Cliffs,
NJ, 1980; and H. A. Mintzberg, The Rise and Fall of Strategic Planning. The Free Press, New York, 1993.
that is part of most of these roles. Many managerial activities in all roles revolve around
decision making. Managers, especially those at high managerial levels, are primarily decision makers. We review the decision-making process next but will study it in more detail
in the next chapter.
The Decision-Making Process
For years, managers considered decision making purely an art-a talent acquired over a
long period through experience (i.e., learning by trial-and-error) and by using intuition.
Management was considered an art because a variety of individual styles could be used
in approaching and successfully solving the same types of managerial problems. These
styles were often based on creativity, judgment, intuition, and experience rather than
on systematic quantitative methods grounded in a scientific approach. However, recent
research suggests that companies with top managers who are more focused on persistent
work (almost dullness) tend to outperform those with leaders whose main strengths are
interpersonal communication skills (Kaplan et al., 2008; Brooks, 2009). It is more important to emphasize methodical, thoughtful, analytical decision making rather than flashiness and interpersonal communication skills.
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
Managers usually make decisions by following a four-step process Cwe learn more
about these in Chapter 2):
1. Define the problem (i.e., a decision situation that may deal with some difficulty or
with an opportunity).
2. Construct a model that describes the real-world problem.
3. Identify possible solutions to the modeled problem and evaluate the solutions.
4. Compare, choose, and recommend a potential solution to the problem.
To follow this process, one must make sure that sufficient alternative solutions are
being considered, that the consequences of using these alternatives can be reasonably
predicted, and that comparisons are done properly. However, the environmental factors
listed in Table 1.1 make such an evaluation process difficult for the following reasons:
• Technology, information systems, advanced search engines, and globalization result
in more and more alternatives from which to choose.
• Government regulations and the need for compliance, political instability and terrorism, competition, and changing consumer demands produce more uncertainty,
making it more difficult to predict consequences and the future.
• Other factors are the need to make rapid decisions, the frequent and unpredictable
changes that make trial-and-error learning difficult, and the potential costs of making
mistakes.
• These environments are growing more complex every day. Therefore, making decisions today is indeed a complex task.
Because of these trends and changes, it is nearly impossible to rely on a trial-anderror approach to management, especially for decisions for which the factors shown in
Table 1.1 are strong influences. Managers must be more sophisticated; they must use the
new tools and techniques of their fields. Most of those tools and techniques are discussed
in this book. Using them to support decision making can be extremely rewarding in
making effective decisions. In the following section, we look at why we need computer
support and how it is provided.
SECTION 1.3 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Describe the three major managerial roles , and list some of the specific activities in each.
2. Why have some argued that management is the same as decision making?
3. Describe the four steps managers take in making a decision.
1.4
INFORMATION SYSTEMS SUPPORT FOR DECISION MAKING
From traditional uses in payroll and bookkeeping functions, computerized systems have
penetrated complex managerial areas ranging from the design and management of automated factories to the application of analytical methods for the evaluation of proposed
mergers and acquisitions. Nearly all executives know that information technology is vital
to their business and extensively use information technologies.
Computer applications have moved from transaction processing and monitoring
activities to problem analysis and solution applications, and much of the activity is done
with Web-based technologies, in many cases accessed through mobile devices. Analytics
and BI tools such as data warehousing, data mining, online analytical processing (OLAF) ,
dashboards , and the use of the Web for decision support are the cornerstones of today's
modern management. Managers must have high-speed, networked information systems (wireline or wireless) to assist them with their most important task: making decisions. Besides the obvious growth in hardware, software, and network capacities, some
9
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Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Oveiview
developments have clearly contributed to facilitating growth of decision support and
analytics in a number of ways, including the following:
• Group communication and collaboration. Many decisions are made today by
groups whose members may be in different locations. Groups can collaborate and
communicate readily by using Web-based tools as well as the ubiquitous smartphones.
Collaboration is especially important along the supply chain, where partners-all the
way from vendors to customers-must share information. Assembling a group of
decision makers, especially experts, in one place can be costly. Infonnation systems
can improve the collaboration process of a group and enable its members to be at different locations (saving travel costs). We will study some applications in Chapter 12.
• Improved data management. Many decisions involve complex computations.
Data for these can be stored in different databases anywhere in the organization
and even possibly at Web sites outside the organization. The data may include text,
sound, graphics, and video, and they can be in different languages. It may be necessary to transmit data quickly from distant locations. Systems today can search, store,
and transmit needed data quickly, economically, securely, and transparently.
• Managing giant data warehouses and Big Data. Large data warehouses, like
the ones operated by Walmart, contain terabytes and even petabytes of data. Special
methods, including parallel computing, are available to organize, search, and mine
the data. The costs related to data warehousing are declining. Technologies that fall
under the broad category of Big Data have enabled massive data coming from a
variety of sources and in many different forms, which allows a very different view
into organizational performance that was not possible in the past.
• Analytical support. With more data and analysis technologies, more alternatives can be evaluated, forecasts can be improved, risk analysis can be performed
quickly, and the views of experts (some of whom may be in remote locations) can
be collected quickly and at a reduced cost. Expertise can even be derived directly
from analytical systems. With such tools, decision makers can perform complex
simulations, check many possible scenarios, and assess diverse impacts quickly and
economically. This, of course, is the focus of several chapters in the book.
• Overcoming cognitive limits in processingandstoringinformation. According
to Simon 0977), the human mind has only a limited ability to process and store information. People sometimes find it difficult to recall and use infonnation in an error-free
fashion due to their cognitive limits. The term cognitive limits indicates that an individual's problem-solving capability is limited when a wide range of diverse information
and knowledge is required. Computerized systems enable people to overcome their
cognitive limits by quickly accessing and processing vast amounts of stored information
(see Chapter 2).
• Knowledge management. Organizations have gathered vast stores of information about their own operations, customers, internal procedures, employee interactions, and so forth through the unstructured and structured communications taking
place among the various stakeholders. Knowledge management systems (KMS,
Chapter 12) have become sources of formal and informal support for decision
making to managers, although sometimes they may not even be called KMS.
• Anywhere, any time support. Using wireless technology, managers can access
information anytime and from any place, analyze and interpret it, and communicate
with those involved. This perhaps is the biggest change that has occurred in the last
few years. The speed at which information needs to be processed and converted
into decisions has truly changed expectations for both consumers and businesses.
These and other capabilities have been driving tl1e use of computerized decision support
since the late 1960s, but especially since the mid-1990s. The growth of mobile technologies,
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
social media platforms, and analytical tools has enabled a much higher level of information
systems support for managers. In the next sections we study a historical classification of
decision support tasks. This leads us to be introduced to decision support systems. We will
then study an overview of technologies that have been broadly referred to as business intelligence. From there we will broaden our horizons to introduce various types of analytics.
SECTION 1.4 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are some of the key system-oriented trends that have fostered IS-supported
decision making to a new level?
2. List some capabilities of information systems that can facilitate managerial decision
making.
3. How can a computer help overcome the cognitive limits of humans?
1.5
A N EARLY FRAMEWORK FOR COMPUTERIZED
DECISION SUPPORT
An early framework for computerized decision support includes several major concepts
that are used in forthcoming sections and chapters of this book. Gorry and Scott-Morton
created and used this framework in the early 1970s, and the framework then evolved into
a new technology called DSS.
The Gorry and Scott-Morton Classical Framework
Gorry and Scott-Morton 0971) proposed a framework that is a 3-by-3 matrix, as shown in
Figure 1.2. The two dimensions are the degree of structuredness and the types of control.
Type of Control
Type of Decision
Operational
Control
Managerial
Control
L!_
Structured
Accounts receivable
Accounts payable
Order entry
~
Production scheduling
Inventory control
S emistructured
L!_
Unstructured
FIGURE 1.2
Buying software
Approving loans
Operating a help desk
Selecting a cover for
a magazine
Decision Support Frameworks.
Strategic
Planning
l!_
l!_
Budget analysis
Short-term forecasting
Personnel reports
Make-or-buy
Financial management
Investment portfolio
Warehouse location
Distribution systems
l!_
l!_
Credit evaluation
Budget preparation
Plant layout
Project scheduling
Reward system design
Inventory
categorization
Building a new plant
Mergers & acquisitions
New product planning
Compensation planning
Quality assurance
HR policies
Inventory planning
l!_
l!_
Negotiating
R & D planning
Recruiting an executive New tech development
Social responsibility
Buying hardware
Lobbying
planning
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Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Oveiview
DEGREE OF STRUCTUREDNESS The left side of Figure 1.2 is based on Simon's (1977) idea
that decision-making processes fall along a continuum that ranges from highly structured
(sometimes called programmed) to highly unstructured (i.e., nonprogrammed) decisions.
Structured processes are routine and typically repetitive problems for which standard
solution methods exist. Unstrnctured processes are fuzzy, complex problems for which
there are no cut-and-dried solution methods.
An unstructured problem is one where the articulation of the problem or the solution approach may be unstructured in itself. In a structured problem, the procedures
for obtaining the best (or at least a good enough) solution are known. Whether the problem involves finding an appropriate inventory level or choosing an optimal investment
strategy, the objectives are clearly defined. Common objectives are cost minimization and
profit maximization.
Semistructured problems fall between structured and unstructured problems, having some structured elements and some unstructured elements. Keen and Scott-Morton
0978) mentioned trading bonds, setting marketing budgets for consumer products, and
performing capital acquisition analysis as semistructured problems.
TYPES OF CONTROL The second half of the Gorry and Scott-Morton framework
(refer to Figure 1.2) is based on Anthony's 0965) taxonomy, which defines three
broad categories that encompass all managerial activities: strategic planning, which
involves defining long-range goals and policies for resource allocation; management control, the acquisition and efficient use of resources in the accomplishment of
organizational goals; and operational control, the efficient and effective execution of
specific tasks.
Anthony's and Simon's taxonomies are combined in the
nine-cell decision support matrix shown in Figure 1.2. The initial purpose of this matrix
was to suggest different types of computerized support to different cells in the matrix.
Gorry and Scott-Morton suggested, for example, that for semistructured decisions and
unstrnctured decisions, conventional management information systems (MIS) and management science (MS) tools are insufficient. Human intellect and a different approach to
computer technologies are necessary. They proposed the use of a supportive information
system, which they called a DSS.
Note that the more structured and operational control-oriented tasks (such as
those in cells 1, 2, and 4) are usually performed by lower-level managers, whereas
the tasks in cells 6, 8, and 9 are the responsibility of top executives or highly trained
specialists.
THE DECISION SUPPORT MATRIX
Computer Support for Structured Decisions
Computers have historically supported structured and some semistructured decisions,
especially those that involve operational and managerial control, since the 1960s.
Operational and managerial control decisions are made in all functional areas, especially
in finance and production (i.e., operations) management.
Structured problems, which are encountered repeatedly, have a high level of structure. It is therefore possible to abstract, analyze, and classify them into specific categories. For example, a make-or-buy decision is one category. Other examples of categories
are capital budgeting, allocation of resources, distribution, procurement, planning, and
inventory control decisions. For each category of decision, an easy-to-apply prescribed
model and solution approach have been developed, generally as quantitative formulas.
Therefore, it is possible to use a scientific approach for automating portions of managerial decision making.
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
Computer Support for Unstructured Decisions
Unstructured problems can be only partially supported by standard computerized quantitative methods. It is usually necessary to develop customized solutions. However, such
solutions may benefit from data and information generated from corporate or external
data sources. Intuition and judgment may play a large role in these types of decisions, as
may computerized communication and collaboration technologies, as well as knowledge
management (see Chapter 12).
Computer Support for Semistructured Problems
Solving semistructured problems may involve a combination of standard solution procedures and human judgment. Management science can provide models for the portion
of a decision-making problem that is structured. For the unstructured portion, a DSS can
improve the quality of the information on which the decision is based by providing, for
example, not only a single solution but also a range of alternative solutions, along with
their potential impacts. These capabilities help managers to better understand the nature
of problems and, thus, to make better decisions.
SECTION 1.5 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are structured, unstructured, and semistructured decisions? Provide two exam-
ples of each.
2. Define operational control, managerial control, and strategic planning. Provide two
examples of each.
3. What are the nine cells of the decision framework? Explain what each is for.
4. How can computers provide support for making structured decisions?
5. How can computers provide support to semistructured and unstructured decisions?
1.6
THE CONCEPT OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS (DSS)
In the early 1970s, Scott-Morton first articulated the major concepts of DSS. He defined
decision support systems (DSS) as "interactive computer-based systems, which help
decision makers utilize data and models to solve unstructured problems" (Gorry and
Scott-Morton, 1971). The following is another classic DSS definition, provided by Keen
and Scott-Morton 0978):
Decision support systems couple the intellectual resources of individuals with
the capabilities of the computer to improve the quality of decisions. It is a
computer-based support system for management decision makers who deal
with semistructured problems.
Note that the term decision support system, like management information system (MIS)
and other terms in the field of IT, is a content-free expression (i.e., it means different
things to different people). Therefore, there is no universally accepted definition of DSS.
(We present additional definitions in Chapter 2.) Actually, DSS can be viewed as a conceptual methodology-that is, a broad, umbrella term. However, some view DSS as a narrower, specific decision support application.
DSS as an Umbrella Term
The term DSS can be used as an umbrella term to describe any computerized system that
supports decision making in an organization. An organization may have a knowledge
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14
Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Oveiview
management system to guide all its personnel in their problem solving. Another organization may have separate support systems for marketing, finance , and accounting; a supply chain management (SCM) system for production; and several rule-based systems for
product repair diagnostics and help desks. DSS encompasses them all.
Evolution of DSS into Business Intelligence
In the early days of DSS, managers let their staff do some supportive analysis by using
DSS tools. As PC technology advanced, a new generation of managers evolved-one
that was comfortable with computing and knew that technology can directly h elp
make intelligent business decisions faster. New tools such as OLAP, data warehousing,
data mining, and intelligent systems , delivered via Web technology, added promised
capabilities and easy access to tools, models, and data for computer-aided decision
making. These tools started to appear under the names BI and business analytics in
the mid-1990s. We introduce these concepts next, and relate the DSS and BI concepts
in the following sections.
SECTION 1.6 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Provide two definitions of DSS.
2. Describe DSS as an umbrella term.
1.7
A FRAMEWORK FOR BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE (Bl)
The decision support concepts presented in Sections 1.5 and 1.6 have been implemented
incrementally, under different names, by many vendors that have created tools and methodologies for decision support. As the enterprise-wide systems grew, managers were
able to access user-friendly reports that enabled them to make decisions quickly. These
systems, which were generally called executive information systems (EIS), then began to
offer additional visualization, alerts, and performance measurement capabilities. By 2006,
the major commercial products and services appeared under the umbrella term business
intelligence (BI).
Definitions of Bl
Business intelligence (BI) is an umbrella term that combines architectures, tools , databases, analytical tools, applications, and methodologies. It is, like DSS, a content-free
expression, so it means different things to different people. Part of the confusion about
BI lies in the flurry of acronyms and buzzwords that are associated with it (e.g., business
performance management [BPM]). Bi's major objective is to enable interactive access
(sometimes in real time) to data, to enable manipulation of data, and to give business
managers and analysts the ability to conduct appropriate analyses . By analyzing historical
and current data, situations, and performances, decision makers get valuable insights that
enable them to make more informed and better decisions. The process of BI is based on
the traniformation of data to information, then to decisions, and finally to actions .
A Brief History of Bl
The term BJ was coined by the Gartner Group in the mid-1990s. However, the concept is
much older; it has its roots in the MIS reporting systems of the 1970s. During that period,
reporting systems were static, two dimensional, and had no analytical capabilities. In the
early 1980s, the concept of executive infonnation systems (EIS) emerged. This concept
expanded the computerized support to top-level managers and executives. Some of the
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
Querying and
reportin
~ Data warehouse
EIS/ESS
Data marts
Financial
reporting
DLAP
Digital cockpits L
I. and dashboardsr,-----------··
Scorecards and
I_ dashboards
Ll-------------11>
Business
intelligence
I
Workflow
Alerts and
notifications
mining
FIGURE 1.3
Predictive
analytics
Broadcasting
tools
Portals
Evolution of Business Intelligence (Bl).
capabilities introduced were dynamic multidimensional (ad hoc or on-demand) reporting,
forecasting and prediction, trend analysis, drill-down to details, status access, and critical success factors. These features appeared in dozens of commercial products until the
mid-1990s. Then the same capabilities and some new ones appeared under the name BI.
Today, a good BI-based enterprise information system contains all the information executives need. So, the original concept of EIS was transformed into BI. By 2005, BI systems
started to include a-rtificial intelligence capabilities as well as powerful analytical capabilities. Figure 1.3 illustrates the various tools and techniques that may be included in a BI
system. It illustrates the evolution of BI as well. The tools shown in Figure 1.3 provide the
capabilities of BI. The most sophisticated BI products include most of these capabilities;
others specialize in only some of them. We will study several of these capabilities in more
detail in Chapters 5 through 9.
The Architecture of Bl
A BI system has four major components: a data warehouse, with its source data; business
analytics, a collection of tools for manipulating, mining, and analyzing the data in the data
warehouse; business peiformance management {BPM) for monitoring and analyzing performance; and a userinteiface (e.g., a dashboard). The relationship among these components is
illustrated in Figure 1.4. We will discuss these components in detail in Chapters 3 through 9.
Styles of Bl
The architecture of BI depends on its applications. MicroStrategy Corp. distinguishes five
styles of BI and offers special tools for each. The five styles are report delivery and alerting; enterprise reporting (using dashboards and scorecards); cube analysis (also known as
slice-and-dice analysis); ad hoc queries; and statistics and data mining.
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16
Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Oveiview
Data Warehouse
Environment
Data
-----------
Business Analytics
Environment
Performance and
Strategy
Technical staff
Build the data warehouse
------
Organizing
Manipulacion, results
Summarizing
Standardizing
Managers/ executives
- - 8PM strategies
I
User interface
Future component:
Browser
intelligent systems
Portal
Dashboard
0~
r-
FIGURE 1.4 A High-Level Architecture of Bl.
Source: Based on W. Eckerson, Smart Companies in the
21st Century: The Secrets of Creating Successful Business Intelligent Solutions. The Data Warehousing
Institute, Seattle, WA, 2003, p. 32, Illustration 5.
The Origins and Drivers of Bl
Where did modern approaches to data warehousing (DW) and BI come from? What are
their roots, and how do those roots affect the way organizations are managing these initiatives today? Today's investments in information technology are under increased scrutiny
in terms of their bottom-line impact and potential. The same is true of DW and the BI
applications that make these initiatives possible.
Organizations are being compelled to capture, understand, and harness their data
to support decision making in order to improve business operations. Legislation and
regulation (e.g., the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002) now require business leaders to document their business processes and to sign off on the legitimacy of the information they
rely on and report to stakeholders. Moreover, business cycle times are now extremely
compressed; faster, more informed, and better decision making is therefore a competitive
imperative. Managers need the right infonnation at the right time and in the right place.
This is the mantra for modern approaches to BI.
Organizations have to work smart. Paying careful attention to the management of BI
initiatives is a necessary aspect of doing business. It is no surprise, then, that organizations
are increasingly championing BL You will hear about more BI successes and the fundamentals of those successes in Chapters 3 through 9. Examples of many applications of BI
are provided in Table 1.3. Application Case 1.1 illustrates one such application of BI that
has helped many airlines, as well as the companies offering such services to the airlines.
A Multimedia Exercise in Business Intelligence
Teradata University Network (TUN) includes some videos along the lines of the television show CSI to illustrate concepts of analytics in different industries. These are called
"BSI Videos (Business Scenario Investigations)." Not only these are entertaining, but
they also provide the class with some questions for discussion. For starters, please go to
teradatauniversitynetwork.com/teach-and-learn/library-item/?Libraryltemld=889.
Watch the video that appears on YouTube. Essentially, you have to assume the role of a
customer service center professional. An incoming flight is running late, and several passengers are likely to miss their connecting flights. There are seats on one outgoing flight
that can accommodate two of the four passengers. Which two passengers should be given
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
TABLE 1.3
17
Business Value of Bl Analytical Applications
Analytic Application
Business Question
Business Value
Customer segmentation
What market segments do my customers fall
into, and what are their characteristics?
Personalize customer relationships for higher
satisfaction and retention.
Propensity to buy
Which customers are most likely to respond
to my promotion?
Target customers based on their need to
increase their loyalty to your product line.
Also, increase campaign profitability by focusing
on the most likely to buy.
Customer profitability
What is the lifetime profitability of my
customer?
Make individual business interaction decisions
based on the overall profitability of
customers.
Fraud detection
How can I tell which transactions are likely
to be fraudulent?
Quickly determine fraud and take immediate
action to minimize cost.
Customer attrition
Which customer is at risk of leaving?
Prevent loss of high-value customers and let go
of lower-value customers.
Channel optimization
What is the best channel to reach my customer in each segment?
Interact with customers based on their
preference and your need to manage cost.
Source: A. Ziama and J. Kasher, Data Mining Primer for the Data Warehousing Professional. Teradata, Dayton, OH, 2004.
Application Case 1.1
Sabre Helps Its Clients Through Dashboards and Analytics
Sabre is one of the world leaders in the travel industry, providing both business-to-consumer services as
well as business-to-business services. It serves travelers, travel agents, corporations, and travel suppliers
through its four main companies: Travelocity, Sabre
Travel Network, Sabre Airline Solutions, and Sabre
Hospitality Solutions. The current volatile global economic environment poses significant competitive challenges to the airline industry. To stay ahead of the
competition, Sabre Airline Solutions recognized that
airline executives needed enhanced tools for managing their business decisions by eliminating the traditional, manual, time-consuming process of collecting and aggregating financial and other information
needed for actionable initiatives. This enables real-time
decision support at airlines throughout the world that
maximize their (and, in tum, Sabre's) return on information by driving insights, actionable intelligence, and
value for customers from the growing data.
Sabre developed an Enterprise Travel Data
Warehouse (ETDW) using Teradata to hold its massive reservations data. ETDW is updated in near-real
time with batches that run every 15 minutes, gathering
data from all of Sabre's businesses. Sabre uses its
ETDW to create Sabre Executive Dashboards that provide near-real-time executive insights using a Cognos
8 BI platform with Oracle Data Integrator and Oracle
Goldengate technology infrastructure. The Executive
Dashboards offer their client airlines' top-level managers and decision makers a timely, automated, userfriendly solution, aggregating critical petformance
metrics in a succinct way and providing at a glance
a 360-degree view of the overall health of the airline.
At one airline, Sabre's Executive Dashboards provide
senior management with a daily and intra-day snapshot of key petformance indicators in a single application, replacing the once-a-week, &-hour process of
generating the same report from various data sources.
The use of dashboards is not limited to the external
customers; Sabre also uses them for their assessment
of internal operational petformance.
The dashboards help Sabre's customers to have
a clear understanding of the data through the visual
displays that incorporate interactive drill-down capabilities. It replaces flat presentations and allows for
more focused review of the data with less effort and
(Continued)
18
Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Oveiview
Application Case 1.1
(Continued)
time. This facilitates team dialog by making the data/
metrics pertaining to sales performance, including
ticketing, seats sold and flown, operational performance such as data on flight movement and tracking, customer reservations, inventory, and revenue
across an airline's multiple distribution channels, available to many stakeholders. The dashboard systems
provide scalable infrastructure, graphical user interface
(GUI) support, data integration, and data aggregation
that empower airline executives to be more proactive
in taking actions that lead to positive impacts on the
overall health of their airline.
With its EIDW, Sabre could also develop other
Web-based analytical and reporting solutions that leverage data to gain customer insights through analysis
of customer profiles and their sales interactions to calculate customer value. This enables better customer
segmentation and insights for value-added services.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What is traditional reporting? How is it used in
organizations?
2. How can analytics be used to transform traditional reporting?
3. How can interactive reporting assist organizations in decision making?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
This Application Case shows that organizations
that earlier used reporting only for tracking their
internal business activities and meeting compliance
requirements set out by the government are now
moving toward generating actionable intelligence
from their transactional business data. Reporting
has become broader as organizations are now trying to analyze archived transactional data to understand underlying hidden trends and patterns that
would enable them to make better decisions by
gaining insights into problematic areas and resolving them to pursue current and future market
opportunities. Reporting has advanced to interactive online reports that enable users to pull and
quickly build custom reports as required and even
present the reports aided by visualization tools
that have the ability to connect to the database,
providing the capabilities of digging deep into
summarized data .
Source: Teradata .com, "Sabre Airline Solutions," teradata.com/t/
case-studies/Sabre-Airline-Solutions-EB6281
(accessed
February 2013).
priority? You are given information about customers' profiles and relationship with the airline. Your decisions might change as you learn more about those customers' profiles.
Watch the video, pause it as appropriate, and answer the questions on which passengers should be given priority. Then resume the video to get more information. After
the video is complete, you can see the slides related to this video and how the analysis
was prepared on a slide set at teradatauniversitynetwork.corn/templates/Download.
aspx?Contentltemld=891. Please note that access to this content requires initial registration.
This multimedia excursion provides an example of how additional information made
available through an enterprise data warehouse can assist in decision making.
The DSS-BI Connection
By now, you should be able to see some of the similarities and differences between DSS
and BI. First, their architectures are very similar because BI evolved from DSS. However,
BI implies the use of a data warehouse, whereas DSS may or may not have such a feature .
BI is, therefore, more appropriate for large organizations (because data warehouses are
expensive to build and maintain), but DSS can be appropriate to any type of organization.
Second, most DSS are constructed to directly support specific decision making. BI
systems, in general, are geared to provide accurate and timely information, and they support decision support indirectly. This situation is changing, however, as more and more
decision support tools are being added to BI software packages.
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
Third, BI has an executive and strategy orientation, especially in its BPM and dashboard components. DSS, in contrast, is oriented toward analysts.
Fourth, most BI systems are constructed with commercially available tools and components that are fitted to the needs of organizations. In building DSS, the interest may
be in constructing solutions to very unstructured problems. In such situations, more programming (e.g., using tools such as Excel) may be needed to customize the solutions.
Fifth, DSS methodologies and even some tools were developed mostly in the academic world. BI methodologies and tools we re deve loped mostly by software companies.
(See Zaman, 2005, for information on how BI has evolved.)
Sixth, many of the tools that BI uses are also considered DSS tools . For example,
data mining and predictive analysis are core tools in both areas.
Although some people equate DSS with BI, these systems are not, at present, the
same. It is interesting to note that some people believe that DSS is a part of BI-one of its
analytical tools. Others think that BI is a special case of DSS that deals mostly with reporting, communication, and collaboration (a form of data-oriented DSS) . Another explanation (Watson, 2005) is that BI is a result of a continuous revolution and, as such, DSS is
one of Bi's original elements. In this book, we separate DSS from BI. However, we point
to the DSS-BI connection frequently. Further, as noted in the next section onward, in
many circles BI has been subsumed by the new term analytics or data science.
SECTION 1. 7 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Define BI.
2. List and describe the major components of BI.
3. What are the major similarities and differences of DSS and BI?
1.8
BUSINESS ANALYTICS OVERVIEW
The word "analytics" has replaced the previous individual components of computerized
decision support technologies that have been available under various labels in the past.
Indeed, many practitioners and academics now use the word analytics in place of BI.
Although many authors and consultants have defined it slightly differently, one can view
analytics as the process of developing actionable decisions or recommendation for actions
based upon insights generated from historical data. The Institute for Operations Research
and Management Science (INFORMS) has created a major initiative to organize and promote analytics. According to INFORMS, analytics represents the combination of computer
technology, management science techniques, and statistics to solve real problems. Of
course, many other organizations have proposed their own interpretations and motivation
for analytics. For example, SAS Institute Inc. proposed eight levels of analytics that begin
with standardized reports from a computer system. These reports essentially provide a
sense of what is happening with an organization. Additional technologies have enabled
us to create more customized reports that can be generated on an ad hoc basis. The next
extension of reporting takes us to online analytical processing (OLAP)-type queries that
allow a user to dig deeper and determine the specific source of concern or opportunities . Technologies available today can also automatically issue alerts for a decision maker
when performance issues warrant such alerts. At a consumer level we see such alerts for
weather or other issues. But similar alerts can also be generated in specific settings when
sales fall above or below a certain level within a certain time period or when the inventory
for a specific product is running low. All of these applications are made possible through
analysis and queries on data being collected by an organization. The next level of analysis
might entail statistical analysis to better understand patterns. These can then be taken a
step further to develop forecasts or models for predicting how customers might respond to
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Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Predictive
Statistical Analysis and
Data Mining
Reporting
Visualization
Periodic, ad hoc
Reporting Trend Analysis
Prescriptive
Management Science
Models and Solution
Prescriptive
Predictive
Reporting
Visualization
Periodic,
ad hoc Reporting
Trend Analysis
Statistical Analysis
and
Data Mining
Management Science
Models and
Solution
FIGURE 1.5 Three Types of Analytics.
a specific marketing campaign or ongoing service/product offerings. When an organization
has a good view of what is happening and what is likely to happen, it can also employ
other techniques to make the best decisions under the circumstances. These eight levels of
analytics are described in more detail in a white paper by SAS (sas.com/news/sascom/
analytics_levels.pdf).
This idea of looking at all the data to understand what is happening, what will
happen, and how to make the best of it has also been encapsulated by INFORMS in
proposing three levels of analytics. These three levels are identified (inforrns.org/
Community/Analytics) as descriptive, predictive, and prescriptive. Figure 1.5 presents
two graphical views of these three levels of analytics. One view suggests that these three
are somewhat independent steps (of a ladder) and one type of analytics application leads
to another. The interconnected circles view suggests that there is actually some overlap
across these three types of analytics. In either case, the interconnected nature of different
types of analytics applications is evident. We next introduce these three levels of analytics.
Descriptive Analytics
Descriptive or reporting analytics refers to knowing what is happening in the
organization and understanding some underlying trends and causes of such occurrences. This involves, first of all, consolidation of data sources and availability of
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
all relevant data in a form that enables appropriate reporting and analysis. Usually
development of this data infrastructure is part of data warehouses, which we study in
Chapter 3. From this data infrastructure we can develop appropriate reports, queries,
alerts, and trends using various reporting tools and techniques. We study these in
Chapter 4.
A significant technology that has become a key player in this area is visualization .
Using the latest visualization tools in the marketplace , we can now develop powerful
insights into the operatio ns of our organization. Applicatio n Cases 1.2 and 1.3 highlight
some such applications in the healthcare domain. Color renderings of such applications
are available on the companion Web site and also on Tableau's Web site. Chapter 4
covers visualization in more detail.
Application Case 1.2
Eliminating Inefficiencies at Seattle Children's Hospital
Seattle Children's was the seventh highest ranked
children's hospital in 2011 , according to U.S. News
& World Report. For any organization that is committed to saving lives, identifying and removing the
inefficiencies from systems and processes so that
more resources become available to cater to patient
care become very important. At Seattle Children's ,
management is continuously looking for new ways
to improve the quality, safety, and processes from
the time a patient is admitted to the time they are
discharged. To this end, they spend a lot of time in
analyzing the data associated w ith the patient visits.
To quickly turn patient and hospital data into
insights, Seattle Children's implemented Tableau
Software's business intelligence application. It provides a browser based on easy-to-use analytics to the
stakeholders; this makes it intuitive for individuals to
create visualizations and to understand what the data
has to offer. The data analysts, business managers,
and financial analysts as well as clinicians, doctors,
and researchers are all using descriptive analytics
to solve different problems in a much faster way.
They are developing visual systems o n their own,
resulting in dashboards and scorecards that help
in defining the standards, the current performance
achieved measured against the standards, and how
these systems will grow into the future. Through the
use of monthly and daily dashboards, day-to-day
decision making at Seattle Children's has improved
significantly .
Seattle Children's measures patient wait-times
and analyzes them with the help of visualizations
to discover the root causes and contributing factors
for patient wa1tmg. They found that early delays
cascaded during the day. They focused on on-time
appointments of patient services as one of the solutions to improving patient overall waiting time and
increasing the availability of beds. Seattle Children's
saved about $3 million from the supply chain, and
with the help of tools like Tableau, they are finding new ways to increase savings while treating as
many patients as possible by making the existing
processes more efficient.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Who are the users of the tool?
2. What is a dashboard?
3. How does visualization help in decision making?
4. What are the significant results achieved by the
use of Tableau?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
This Application Case shows that reporting analytics involving visualizations such as dashboards can
offer major insights into existing data and show how
a variety of users in different domains and departments can contribute toward process and quality improvements in an organization. Furthermore,
exploring the data visually can help in identifying
the root causes of problems and provide a basis for
working toward possible solutions.
Source: Tableausoftware.com, "Eliminating Waste at Seattle
Children's," tableausoftware.com/eliminating-waste-at-seattlechildrens (accessed February 2013).
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Application Case 1.3
Analysis at the Speed of Thought
Kaleida Health, the largest healthcare provider in
western New York, has more than 10,000 employees, five hospitals, a number of clinics and nursing
homes, and a visiting-nurse association that deals
with millions of patient records. Kaleida's traditional
reporting tools were inadequate to handle the growing data, and they were faced with the challenge of
finding a business intelligence tool that could handle
large data sets effortlessly, quickly, and with a much
deeper analytic capability.
At Kaleida, many of the calculations are now
done in Tableau, primarily pulling the data from
Oracle databases into Excel and importing the
data into Tableau. For many of the monthly analytic reports, data is directly extracted into Tableau
from the data warehouse; many of the data queries
are saved and rerun, resulting in time savings when
dealing with millions of records-each having more
than 40 fields per record. Besides speed, Kaleida
also uses Tableau to merge different tables for generating extracts.
Using Tableau, Kaleida can analyze emergency
room data to determin e the number of patients who
visit more than 10 times a year. The data often reveal
that people frequently use emergency room and
ambulance services inappropriately for stomachaches, headaches, and fevers. Kaleida can manage
resource utilizations-the use and cost of supplieswhich will ultimately lead to efficie ncy and standardization of supplies management across the system.
Kaleida now has its own business intelligence
department and uses Tableau to compare itself to
other hospitals across the country. Comparisons are
made on various aspects, such as length of patient
stay, hospital practices, market share, and partnerships with doctors.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What are the desired functionalities of a report-
ing tool?
2. What advantages were derived by using a reporting tool in the case?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
Correct selection of a reporting tool is extremely
important, especially if an organization wants to
derive value from reporting. The generated reports
and visualizations should be easily discernible; they
should help people in different sectors make sense
out of the reports, identify the problematic areas,
and contribute toward improving them. Many future
organizations will require reporting analytic tools
that are fast and capable of handling huge amounts
of data efficiently to generate desired reports without the need for third-party consultants and service
providers. A truly useful reporting tool can exempt
organizations from unnecessary expenditure.
Source: Tableausoftware.com, "Kaleida Health Finds Efficiencies,
Stays Competitive," tableausoftware.com/learn/stories/userexperience-speed-thought-kaleida-health (accessed February
2013).
Predictive Analytics
Predictive analytics aims to determine what is likely to happen in the future. This analysis is based o n statistical techniques as well as other more recently developed techniques
that fall under the general category of data mining. The goal of these techniques is to be
able to predict if the customer is likely to switch to a competitor ("churn"), what the customer is likely to buy next and how much, what promotion a customer would respond
to, or w hether this customer is a creditworthy risk. A number of techniques are u sed in
developing predictive analytical applications, including various classification algorithms.
For example, as described in Chapters 5 and 6, we can use classification techniques such
as decision tree models and neural networks to predict how well a motion picture will
do at the box office. We can also use clustering algorithms for segmenting customers
into different clusters to be able to target specific promotions to them. Finally, we can
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
use association mining techniques to estimate relationships between different purchasing
behaviors. That is, if a customer buys one product, what else is the customer likely to purchase? Such analysis can assist a retailer in recommending or promoting related products.
For example , any product search on Amazon.com results in the retailer also suggesting
other similar products that may interest a customer. We will study these techniques and
their applications in Chapters 6 through 9. Application Cases 1.4 and 1.5 highlight some
similar applications. Application Case 1.4 introduces a movie you may have heard of:
Moneyball. It is perhaps one of the best examples of applications of predictive analysis
in sports.
Application Case 1.4
Moneyba/1: Analytics in Sports and Movies
Moneyball, a biographical, sports, drama film, was
released in 2011 and directed by Bennett Miller. The
film was based on Michael Lewis's book, Moneyball.
The movie gave a detailed account of the Oakland
Athletics baseball team during the 2002 season and
the Oakland general manager's efforts to assemble a
competitive team.
The Oakland Athletics suffered a big loss to the
New York Yankees in 2001 postseason. As a result,
Oakland lost many of its star players to free agency
and ended up with a weak team with unfavorable
financial prospects. The general manager's efforts to
reassemble a competitive team were denied because
Oakland had limited payroll. The scouts for the
Oakland Athletics followed the old baseball custom
of making subjective decisions when selecting the
team members. The general manager then met a
young, computer whiz with an economics degree
from Yale. The general manager decided to appoint
him as the new assistant general manager.
The assistant general manager had a deep passion for baseball and had the expertise to crunch
the numbers for the game. His love for the game
made him develop a radical way of understanding
baseball statistics. He was a disciple of Bill James, a
marginal figure w ho offered rationalized techniques
to analyze baseball. James looked at baseball statistics in a different way, crunching the numbers purely
on facts and eliminating subjectivity. James pioneered the nontraditional analysis method called the
Sabermetric approach, which derived from SABRSociety for American Baseball Research.
The assistant general manager followed the
Sabermetric approach by building a prediction
model to help the Oakland Athletics select players based on their "on-base percentage" (OBP), a
statistic that measured how often a batter reached
base for any reason other than fielding error, fielder's choice, dropped/ uncaught third strike, fielder's
obstruction, or catcher's interference. Rather than
relying on the scout's experience and intuition, the
assistant general manager selected players based
almost exclusively on OBP.
Spoiler Alert: The new team beat all odds, won
20 consecutive games, and set an American League
record.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How is predictive analytics applied in Moneyball?
2. What is the difference between objective and
subjective approaches in decision making?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
Analytics finds its use in a variety of industries. It
helps organizations rethink their traditional problem-solving abilities, which are most often subjective, relying o n the same old processes to find a
solution. Analytics takes the radical approach of
using historical data to find fact-based solutions
that w ill remain appropriate for making even future
decisions.
Source.- Wikipedia, "On-Base Percentage," en.wikipedia.org/
wiki/On_base_percentage (accessed January 2013); Wikipedia,
"Sabermetricsm," wikipedia.org/wiki/Sabennetrics (accessed
January 2013).
23
24
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Application Case 1.5
Analyzing Athletic Injuries
Any athletic activity is prone to injuries. If the injuries are not handled properly, then the team suffers. Using analytics to understand injuries can help
in deriving valuable insights that would enable
the coaches and team doctors to manage the team
composition , understand player profiles, and ultimately a id in better decision making concerning
which players might be available to play at any
given time.
In an exploratory study, Oklahoma State
University analyzed American football-related sport
injuries by using reporting and predictive analytics.
The project followed the CRISP-DM methodology to understand the problem of making recommendations on managing injuries, understanding
the various data elements collected about injuries,
cleaning the data, developing visualizations to draw
various inferences, building predictive models to
analyze the injury healing time period, and drawing
sequence rules to predict the relationship among the
injuries and the various body part parts afflicted with
injuries.
The injury data set consisted of more than
560 football injury records, which were categorized
into injury-specific variables-body part/ site/ laterality, action taken, severity, injury type, injury statt
and healing dates-and player/sport-specific variables-player ID, position played, activity, onset, and
game location. Healing time was calculated for each
record, which was classified into different sets of
time periods: 0-1 month, 1-2 months, 2-4 months,
4- 6 months, and 6- 24 months.
Various visualizations were built to draw
inferences from injury data set information depicting the healing time period associated w ith players'
positions, severity of injuries and the healing time
period, treatment offered and the associated healing
time period, major injuries afflicting body parts, and
so forth.
Neural network models were built to predict each of the healing categories using IBM SPSS
Modeler. Some of the predictor variables were current status of injury, severity, body part, body site,
type of injury, activity, event location, action taken,
and position played. The success of classifying the
healing categoty was quite good: Accuracy was 79.6
percent. Based on the analysis, many business recommendations were suggested, including employing more specialists' input from injury onset instead
of letting the training room staff screen the injured
players; training players at defensive positions to
avoid being injured; and holding practice to thoroughly safety-check mechanisms.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What types of analytics are applied in the injury
analysis?
2. How do visualizations aid in understanding the
data and delivering insights into the data?
3. What is a classification problem?
4. What can be derived by performing sequence
analysis?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
For any analytics project, it is always important
to understand the business domain and the current state of the business problem through extensive analysis of the only resource-historical data.
Visualizations often provide a great tool for gaining
the initial insights into data, which can be further
refined based on expett opinions to identify the relative importance of the data e lements related to the
problem. Visualizations also aid in generating ideas
for obscure business problems, which can be pursued in building predictive models that could help
organizations in decision making.
Prescriptive Analytics
The third category of analytics is termed prescriptive analytics. The goal of prescriptive
analytics is to recognize what is going on as well as the likely forecast and make decisions
to achieve the best performance possible. This group of techniques has historically been
studied under the umbrella of operations research or management sciences and has generally been aimed at optimizing the performance of a system. The goal here is to provide
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
a decision or a recommendation for a specific action. These recommendations can be in
the forms of a specific yes/ no decision for a problem, a specific amount (say, price for a
specific item or airfare to charge), or a complete set of production plans. The decisions
may be presented to a decision maker in a report or may directly be used in an automated
decision rules system (e.g., in airline pricing systems). Thus, these types of analytics can
also be termed decision or normative analytics. Application Case 1.6 gives an example
of such prescriptive analytic applications. We will learn about some of these techniques
and several additional applicatio ns in Chapters 10 through 12.
Application Case 1.6
Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) Employs Models
to Reconfigure Its Branch Network
The Industrial and Commercial Bank of China
(ICBC) has more than 16,000 branches and serves
over 230 million individual customers and 3.6 million corporate clients. Its daily financial transactions
total about $180 million. It is also the largest publicly traded bank in the world in terms of market
capitalization, deposit volume , and profitability. To
stay competitive and increase profitability, ICBC was
faced with the challenge to quickly adapt to the fastpaced economic growth, urbanization, and increase
in personal wealth of the Chinese. Changes had to be
implemented in over 300 cities with high variability
in customer behavior and financial status. Obviously,
the nature of the challenges in such a huge economy
meant that a large-scale optimization solution had to
be developed to locate branches in the right places,
with right services, to serve the right customers.
With their existing method, ICBC used to decide
w here to open new branches through a scoring model
in which different variables with varying weight were
used as inputs. Some of the variables were customer
flow, number of residential households, and number
of competitors in the intended geographic region. This
method was deficient in determining the customer distribution of a geographic area. The existing method
was also unable to optimize the distribution of bank
branches in the branch network. With support from
IBM, a branch reconfiguration (BR) tool was developed. Inputs for the BR system are in three parts:
a. Geographic data with 83 different categories
b. Demographic and economic data with 22 different categories
c. Branch transactions and performance data that
consisted of more than 60 million transaction
records each day
These three inputs helped generate accurate customer distribution for each area and, hence, helped
the bank optimize its branch network. The BR system
consisted of a market potential calculation model, a
branch network optimization model, and a branch
site evaluation model. In the market potential model,
the customer volume and value is measured based
on input data and expert knowledge. For instance,
expe1t knowledge would help determine if personal income should be weighted more than gross
domestic product (GDP). The geographic areas are
also demarcated into cells, and the preference of one
cell over the other is determined. In the branch network optimization model, mixed integer programming is used to locate branches in candidate cells
so that they cover the largest market potential areas.
In the branch site evaluation model, the value for
establishing bank branches at specific locations is
determined.
Since 2006, the development of the BR has
been improved through an iterative process. ICBC's
branch reconfiguration tool has increased deposits
by $21.2 billio n since its inception. This increase
in deposit is because the bank can now reach
more customers with the right services by use of
its optimization tool. In a specific example , when
BR was implemented in Suzhou in 2010, deposits
increased to $13.67 billion from an initial leve l of
$7.56 billion in 2007. Hence, the BR tool assisted
in an increase of deposits to the tune of $6.11
billion between 2007 and 2010. This project was
selected as a finalist in the Edelman Competition
2011 , which is run by INFORMS to promote actual
applications of management science/ operations
research models.
(Continued)
25
26
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Application Case 1.6
(Continued}
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How can analytical techniques help organizations to retain competitive advantage?
2. How can descriptive and predictive analytics
help in pursuing prescriptive analytics?
3. What kinds of p rescriptive analytic techniques
are employed in the case study?
4. Are the prescriptive models once built good
forever?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
Many organizations in the world are now embracing analytical techniques to stay compe titive
and achieve growth. Many o rganizations provide
consulting solutions to the businesses in employing prescriptive analytical solutions. It is equally
important to have proactive decision makers in the
organizations who are aware of the ch anging economic environment as well as the advancements
in the field of analytics to ensure that appropriate
models are e mployed . This case shows an example
o f geographic market segmentatio n and customer
beh avioral segmentation techniques to isolate the
profitability of customers and employ optimizatio n
techniques to locate the branches that deliver high
profitability in each geographic segment.
Source: X. Wang e t al. , "Branch Reconfiguration Practice Through
Operations Research in Industrial a nd Commercial Bank of China,"
Interfaces, January/ February 2012, Vol. 42, No . 1, pp. 33-44; DOI:
10.1287/ inte.1110.0614.
Analytics Applied to Different Domains
Applications of analytics in various industry sectors have spawned many related areas or
at least buzzwords. It is almost fashio nable to attach the word analytics to any specific
industry or type of data. Besides the general category of text analytics- aimed at getting
value out of text (to be studied in Chapter 6)- or Web analytics- analyzing Web data
streams (Chapter 7)- many industry- o r p roblem-sp ecific analytics p rofessio ns/ streams
have come up. Examples of such areas are marketing analytics, retail analytics, fraud analytics, transportation analytics, health analytics, sports analytics, talent analytics, behavioral analytics, and so forth. For example, Application Case 1.1 could also be terme d as
a case study in airline analytics. Application Cases 1.2 and 1.3 would belo ng to health
analytics; Application Cases 1.4 and 1.5 to sports analytics; Application Case 1.6 to bank
analytics; and Application Case 1.7 to retail analytics. The End-of-Chapter Application
Case could be termed insurance analytics. Literally, any systematic analysis of data in a
specific secto r is being labeled as "(fill-in-blanks)" Analytics. Although this may result in
overselling the concepts of analytics, the benefit is that more people in specific industries
are aware of the power and p otential of analytics. It also provides a focus to professionals
developing and applying the concepts of analytics in a vertical secto r. Although m any of
the techniques to develop analytics applications may be commo n , there are unique issues
within each vertical segment that influence how the data may be collected, processed,
analyzed , and the applications implemented. Thus, the differentiatio n of analytics based
on a vertical focus is good for the overall growth of the discipline.
Analytics or Data Science?
Even as the concept of analytics is getting popular among industry and academic circles,
another term has already been introduced and is becoming popular. The new term is data
science. Thus the practitioners of data science are data scie ntists. Mr. D. J. Patil of Linkedin
is sometimes credited with creating the term data science. There have been some attempts
to describe the differences between data analysts and data scientists (e.g., see this study at
emc.com/collateral/about/news/emc-data-science-study-wp.pdf). One view is that
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
data analyst is just another term for professionals w ho were doing business intelligence in
the form of data compilation, cleaning, reporting, and perhaps some visualization. Their
skill sets included Excel, some SQL knowledge, and reporting. A reader of Section 1.8
would recognize that as descriptive or reporting analytics. In contrast, a data scientist is
responsible for predictive analysis, statistical analysis, and more advanced analytical tools
and algorithms. They may have a deeper knowledge of algorithms and may recognize
them under various labels-data mining, knowledge discovery, machine learning, and
so forth. Some of these professionals may also need deeper programming knowledge to
be able to write code for data cleaning and analysis in current Web-oriented languages
such as Java and Python. Again, our readers should recognize these as falling under the
predictive and prescriptive analytics umbrella. Our view is that the distinction between
analytics and data science is more of a degree of technical knowledge and skill sets than
the functions. It may also be more of a distinction across disciplines. Computer science,
statistics, and applied mathematics programs appear to prefer the data science label,
reserving the analytics label for more business-oriented professionals. As another example
of this, applied physics professionals have proposed using network science as the term
for describing analytics that relate to a group of people-social networks, supply chain
networks, and so forth. See barabasilab.neu.edu/networksciencebook/downlPDF.
html for a n evolving textbook on this topic.
Aside from a clear difference in the skill sets of professionals w ho only have to do
descriptive/ reporting analytics versus those who engage in all three types of analytics, the
distinction is fuzzy between the two labels, at best. We observe that graduates of our
analytics programs tend to be responsible for tasks more in line with data science professionals (as defined by some circles) than just reporting analytics. This book is clearly aimed
at introducing the capabilities and functionality of all analytics (which includes data science), not just reporting analytics. From now on , we w ill use these terms interchangeably.
SECTION 1.8 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Define analytics.
2. What is descriptive analytics? What various tools are employed in descriptive analytics?
3. How is descriptive analytics different from traditional reporting?
4. What is a data warehouse? How can data warehousing technology help in enabling analytics?
5. What is predictive analytics? How can organizations employ predictive analytics?
6. What is prescriptive analytics? What kinds of problems can be solved by prescriptive analytics?
7. Define modeling from the analytics perspective.
8. Is it a good idea to follow a hierarchy of descriptive and predictive analytics before
applying prescriptive analytics?
9. How can analytics aid in objective decision making?
1.9
BRIEF INTRODUCTION TO BIG DATA ANALYTICS
What Is Big Data?
Our brains work extremely quickly and are efficient and versatile in processing large
amounts of all kinds of data: images , text, sounds, smells, and video. We process all
different forms of data relatively easily. Computers, on the other hand, are still finding it
hard to keep up with the pace at which data is generated- let alone analyze it quickly.
We have the problem of Big Data. So w hat is Big Data? Simply put, it is data that cannot
27
28
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
be stored in a single storage unit. Big Data typically refers to data that is arnv mg in
many different forms, be they structured, unstructured, or in a stream. Major sources
of such data are clickstreams from Web sites, postings o n social media sites such as
Facebook, o r data from traffic, sensors, or weather. A Web search e ngine like Google
needs to search and index billions of Web pages in o rde r to give you relevant search
results in a fraction of a second. Although this is not done in real time, generating an
index of all the Web pages o n the Internet is not an easy task. Luckily for Google, it
was able to solve this proble m . Among other tools, it has e mployed Big Data a nalytical
techniques.
There are two aspects to managing data o n this scale: storing and processing . If we
could purchase an extreme ly expensive storage solution to store all the data at one place
o n one unit, making this unit fault tolerant would involve major expense. An ingenious
solution was proposed that involved storing this data in chunks on different machines
connected by a network, putting a copy or two of this chunk in different locations on
the netwo rk, both logically and physically . It was originally used at Google (then called
Google File System) and later developed and released as an Apache project as the Hadoop
Distributed File System (HDFS).
However, sto ring this data is only half the problem. Data is worthless if it does
not provide business value, and for it to provide bu siness value, it has to be a nalyzed.
How are such vast amounts of data analyzed? Passing all computation to o ne powerful
compute r does no t work; this scale would create a huge overhead on such a powerful computer. Another ingenious solutio n was proposed: Push computation to the data,
instead of pushing data to a computing node. This was a new paradigm, and it gave rise
to a w hole new way of processing data. This is what we know today as the MapReduce
programming paradigm, w hich made processing Big Data a reality. MapReduce was originally develop ed at Google, and a subsequent versio n was released by the Apache project
called Hadoop MapReduce.
Today, w hen we talk about storing, processing, o r analyzing Big Data, HDFS and
MapReduce are involved at some level. Other relevant standards and software solutions
have been proposed. Although the majo r toolkit is available as open source, several
companies have been launched to provide training or specialized analytical hardware or
software services in this space. Some examples are HortonWorks, Clo udera, an d Teradata
Aster.
Over the past few years, w hat was called Big Data changed more and more as Big
Data applications appeared. The n eed to process data coming in at a rapid rate added
velocity to the equatio n . One example of fast data processing is algorithmic trading. It
is the use of electronic platforms based on algorithms for trading sh ares o n the financial
marke t, which operates in the order of microseconds. The need to process different
kinds of data added variety to the equation. Another example of the wide variety of
data is sentiment a nalysis, which uses various forms of data from social media p latforms
a nd customer responses to gauge sentime nts. Today Big Data is associated w ith almost
any kind of large data that has the characteristics of volume, velocity, and variety.
Applicatio n Case 1.7 illustrates one example of Big Data analytics. We w ill study Big
Data characteristics in more detail in Chapters 3 and 13.
SECTION 1.9 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is Big Data analytics?
2 . What are the sources of Big Data?
3. What are the characteristics of Big Data?
4. What processing technique is applied to p rocess Bi ta?
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
Application Case 1.7
Gilt Groupe's Flash Sales Streamlined by Big Data Analytics
Gilt Groupe is an online destination offering flash
sales for major brands by selling their clothing and
accessories. It offers its members exclusive discounts
on high-end clothing and other apparel. After registering with Gilt, customers are sent e-mails containing
a variety of offers. Customers are given a 36-48 hour
window to make purchases using these offers. There
are about 30 different sales each day. While a typical
department store turns over its inventory two or three
times a year, Gilt does it eight to 10 times a year. Thus,
they have to manage their inventory extremely well
or they could incur extremely high inventory costs.
In order to do this, analytics software developed at
Gilt keeps track of eve1y customer click-ranging
from what brands the customers click on, what colors
they choose, what styles they pick, and what they
end up buying. Then Gilt tries to predict what these
customers are more likely to buy and stocks inve ntory according to these predictions. Customers are
sent customized alerts to sale offers depending on the
suggestions by the analytics software.
That, however, is not the whole process. The
software also monitors what offers the customers
choose from the recommended offers to make more
accurate predictions and to increase the effectiveness
of its personalized recommendations. Some customers do not check e-mail that often. Gilt's analytics
1.10
software keeps track of responses to offers and sends
the same offer 3 days later to those customers who
haven't responded. Gilt also keeps track of what
customers are saying in general about Gilt's products by analyzing Twitter feeds to analyze sentiment.
Gilt's recommendation software is based on Teradata
Aster's technology solution that includes Big Data
analytics technologies.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What makes this case study an example of Big
Data analytics?
2. What types of decisions does Gilt Groupe have
to make?
What We Can Learn From this Application
Case
There is continuous growth in the amount of structured and unstructured data, and many organizations are now tapping these data to make actionable
decisions. Big Data analytics is now enabled by the
advancements in technologies that aid in storage and
processing of vast amounts of rapidly growing data.
Source: Asterdata.com, "Gilt Groupe Speaks on Digital Marketing
Optimization ," asterdata.com/gilt_groupe_video.php (accessed
Febrnary 2013).
PLAN OF THE BOOK
The previous sections have given you an understanding of the need for using information technology in decision making; an IT-oriented view of various types of decisions;
and the evolution of decision support systems into business intelligence, and now into
analytics. In the last two sections we have seen an overview of various types of analytics and their applications. Now we are ready for a more detailed managerial excursion
into these topics, along with some potentially deep hands-on experience in some of the
technical topics. The 14 chapters of this book are organized into five parts, as shown in
Figure 1.6.
Part I: Business Analytics: An Overview
In Chapter 1, we provided an introduction, definitions , and an overview of decision support systems, business intelligence, and analytics, including Big Data analytics. Chapter 2
covers the basic phases of the decision-making process and introduces decision support
systems in more detail.
29
30
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Ove rview
Part I
Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
r - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - ,
'
Chapter 1
1
An Overview of Business
Intelligence, Analytics, and
Decision Support
Chapter 2
Foundations and Technologies for
Decision Making
Part Ill
Predictive Analytics
Chapter 5
Data Mining
Chapter 6
Part II
Techniques for Predictive
Modeling
Descriptive Analytics
Chapter 3
Chapter 7
Data Warehousing
Text Analytics, Text Mining, and
Sentiment Analysis
Chapter 4
Business Reporting, Visual
Analytics, and Business
Performance Management
Chapter 8
Web Analytics, Web Mining, and
Social Analytics
Part IV
Prescriptive Analytics
Chapter 9
Model-Based Decision Making:
Optimization and Multi-Criteria
Systems
Chapter 10
Part V
Big Data and Future Directions
Modeling and Analysis:
Heuristic Search Methods and
Simulation
for Business Analytics
,--------------------------
Chapter 11
Chapter 13
Automated Decision Systems and
Big Data and Analytics
Expert Systems
Chapter 12
Chapter 14
Knowledge Management and
Collaborative Systems
Business Analytics: Emer ging
Trends and Future Impacts
-------------r------------- ------------r------------, ._ ------------1-------------- -------------T-----------I
Part VI
Online Supplements
Software Demos
Data Files for Exercises
PowerPoint Slides
FIGURE 1.6
Plan of the Book.
Part II: Descriptive Analytics
Part II begins with an introduction to data warehousing issues, applications, and technologies in Chapter 3. Data represent the fundamental backbone of any decision support and
analytics application. Chapter 4 describes business reporting, visualization technologies,
and applications. It also includes a brief overview of business performance management
techniques and applications, a topic that has been a key part of traditional BI.
Part Ill: Predictive Analytics
Part III comprises a large part of the book. It begins w ith an introduction to predictive
analytics applications in Chapter 5. It includes many of the common application techniques: classification, clustering, association mining, and so forth. Chapter 6 includes a
technical description of selected data mining techniques, especially neural network models. Chapter 7 focuses on text mining applications. Similarly, Chapter 8 focuses on Web
analytics, including social media analytics, sentiment analysis, and other related to pics.
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
Part IV: Prescriptive Analytics
Part IV introduces decision analytic techniques, which are also called prescriptive analytics. Specifically, Chapter 9 covers selected models that may be implemented in spreadsheet environme nts. It also covers a popular multi-objective decision technique-analytic
hierarchy processes.
Chapter 10 then introduces other model-based decision-making techniques, especially heuristic models and simulation. Chapter 11 introduces automated decision systems
including expert systems. This part concludes with a brief discussion of knowledge
management and group support systems in Chapter 12.
Part V: Big Data and Future Directions for Business Analytics
Part V begins with a more detailed coverage of Big Data and analytics in Chapter 13.
Chapter 14 attempts to integrate all the material covered in this book and
concludes with a discussion of emerging trends, such as how the ubiquity of wireless and GPS devices and other sensors is resulting in the creation of massive new
databases and unique applications. A new breed of data mining and BI companies is
emerging to analyze these new databases and create a much better and deeper understanding of customers' behaviors and movements. The chapter also covers cloud-based
analytics, recommendation systems, and a brief discussion of security/ privacy dimensions of analytics. It concludes the book by also presenting a discussion of the analytics
ecosystem. An understanding of the ecosystem and the various players in the analytics
industry highlights the various career opportunities for students and practitioners of
analytics.
1.11
RESOURCES, LINKS, AND THE TERADATA UNIVERSITY
NETWORK CONNECTION
The use of this chapter and most other chapters in this book can be e nhanced by the tools
described in the following sections.
Resources and Links
We recommend the following major resources and links:
• The Data Warehousing Institute (tdwi.org)
• Informatio n Management (information-management.com)
• DSS Resources (dssresources.com)
• Microsoft Enterprise Consortium (enterprise.waltoncollege.uark.edu/mec.asp)
Vendors, Products, and Demos
Most vendors provide software demos of their products and applications. Information
about products, architecture, and software is available at dssresources.com.
Periodicals
We recommend the following periodicals:
• Decision Support Systems
• CIO Insight (cioinsight.com)
• Technology Evaluation (technologyevaluation.com)
• Baseline Magazine (baselinemag.com)
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
The Teradata University Network Connection
This book is tightly connected with the free resources provided by Teradata University
Network (TUN; see teradatauniversitynetwork.com) . The TUN portal is divided
into two major parts: one for students and one for faculty. This b ook is connected to
the TUN portal via a special sectio n at the end of each chapter. That section includes
appropriate links for the specific chapter, pointing to relevant resources. In addition,
w e provide hands-on exercises, u sing software and other material (e.g., cases) available at TUN.
The Book's Web Site
This book's Web site, pearsonhighered.com/turban, contains supplemental textual
material o rganized as Web chapters that correspond to the printed book's chapters. The
topics of these chapters are listed in the online chapter table of contents. Other content is
also available on an independent Web site (dssbibook.com).2
Chapter Highlights
• The business e nvironment is becoming complex
and is rapidly changing, making decisio n making
more difficult.
• Businesses must respond and adapt to the changing e nvironment rapidly by making faster and
better decisions.
• The time frame for making decisions is shrinking,
w hereas the global nature of decision making is
expanding, necessitating the development and
use of computerized DSS.
• Computerized support for managers is often
essential for the survival of an organization .
• An early decision support framework divides
decision situations into nine categories, depending
on the degree of structuredness and managerial
activities. Each category is supported differently.
• Structured repetitive decisions are supported by
standard quantitative analysis methods, such as MS,
MIS, and rule-based automated decision support.
• DSS use data, models, and sometimes knowledge
management to find solutions for semistructured
and some unstructured proble ms.
• BI methods utilize a central repository called a
data warehouse that enables efficient data mining,
OLAP, BPM, and data visualization.
• BI architecture includes a data warehouse, business analytics tools used by end u sers, and a u ser
interface (such as a dashboard).
• Many organizatio ns employ descriptive analytics
to replace their traditional flat reporting with interactive reporting that provides insights, trends, and
patterns in the transactional data.
• Predictive analytics enable organizations to establish predictive rules that drive the business outcomes through historical data analysis of the
existing behavior of the customers.
• Prescriptive analytics help in building models that
involve forecasting and optimization techniques
based on the principles of operatio ns research
and management science to help organizations to
make better decisions.
• Big Data analytics focuses on unstructured, large
data sets that may also include vastly different
types of data for analysis.
• Analytics as a fie ld is also known by industryspecific application names such as sports analytics.
It is also known by other related names su ch as
data science or network scie nce.
2
As this book went to p ress, we verified that all the cited Web sites were active and valid . However, URLs are
d ynamic. Web sites to which we refer in the text sometimes change o r are discontinued because companies
change na mes, are bought o r sold , merge, o r fail. Sometimes Web sites are down for maintenance, repair, or
redesign. Many organizations have dropped the initial "www" d esignation for their sites, but some still use it. If
you have a problem connecting to a Web s ite that we mentio n, please be patient and simply run a Web search
to try to ide ntify the possible new site. Most times , you can quickly find the new site through one o f the popular
search engines. We apologize in advance for this in convenie nce.
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
33
Key Terms
business intelligence
(BI)
dashboard
data mining
decision (or normative)
analytics
decision support system
(DSS)
descriptive (or reporting)
analytics
predictive analytics
prescriptive analytics
semistructured
problem
structured problem
unstructured problem
Questions for Discussion
1. Give examples for the content of each cell in Figure 1.2.
2. Survey the literature from the past 6 mo nths to find one
application each for DSS, BI, and analytics. Summarize
the applications on one page and submit it with the exact
sources.
3. Observe an organization with which you are familiar. List
three decisions it makes in each of the following categories :
strategic planning, management control (tactical planning),
and operatio nal planning and contro l.
4. Distinguish BI from DSS.
5. Compare and contrast pre dictive analytics with prescriptive and descriptive analytics. Use examples.
Exercises
Teradata University Network (TUN) and Other
Hands-On Exercises
1. Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Using the registration your instructor provides, log on and learn the
conte nt of the site . You will receive assignme nts re lated
to this site. Prepare a list of 20 items in the site that you
think could be beneficial to you.
2 . Enter the TUN site and select "cases, projects and assignme nts." Then select the case study: "Harrah's High Payoff
from Customer Information." Answer the following questions about this case:
a. What informatio n does the data mining generate?
b. How is this information helpful to management in
decision making? (Be specific.)
c. List the types of data that are mine d.
d. Is this a DSS or BI application? Why?
3. Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com and find the paper
titled "Data Warehousing Supports Corporate Strategy at First
American Corporation" (by Watson, Wixom, and Goodhue).
Read the paper and answer the following questions:
a. What were the drivers for the DW/ BI project in the
company?
b. What strategic advantages w ere realized?
c. What operational and tactical advantages were achieved?
d. What were the critical success factors (CSF) for the
imple me ntation?
4. Go to analytics-magazine.org/issues/digital-editions
and find the January/Februa1y 2012 edition titled "Special
Issue: The Future of Healthcare." Read the article "Predictive
Analytics-Saving Lives and Lowering Medical Bills."
Answer the following questions:
a. What is the problem that is be ing addressed by applying predictive analytics?
b . What is the FICO Medication Adherence Score?
c. How is a prediction mo del traine d to predict the FICO
Medication Adherence Score? Did the prediction
model classify FICO Medication Adhere nce Score?
d. Zoom in o n Figure 4 and explain w hat kind of technique is applied on the generated results.
e. List some of the actio nable decisions that were based
on the results of the p redictions.
5 . Go to analytics-magazine.org/issues/digital-editions
and find the January/ February 2013 edition titled "Work
Social." Read the article "Big Data, Analytics and Elections"
and answer the following questions:
a . What kinds of Big Data were analyzed in the article?
Comment o n some of the sources of Big Data.
b. Explain the term integrated system. What othe r technical term suits integrated system?
c. What kinds of data analysis techniques are employed
in the project? Comment on some initiatives that
resulted from data analysis.
d . What are the diffe rent prediction problems answered
by the models?
e. List some o f the actionable decisions taken that were
based on the predication results.
f. Identify two applications of Big Data analytics that are
not listed in the article.
34
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Ove rview
6. Search the Internet for mate rial regarding the work of managers and the role analytics play. What kind of references
to consulting firms, academic de paitme nts, and programs
do you find? What major areas are represented? Select five
sites that cover one area and repo rt your findings.
7. Explore the public areas of dssresources.corn. Prepare
a list of its majo r available resources. You might want to
refe r to this site as you wo rk through the book.
8. Go to rnicrostrategy.corn. Find information on the five
styles of BI. Prepare a summary table for each style.
9. Go to oracle.corn and click the Hyperion link under
Applications. Determine what the company's major products are. Relate these to the sup port technologies cited in
this chapter.
End-of-Chapter Application Case
Nationwide Insurance Used Bl to Enhance Customer Service
Nationwide Mutual Insurance Company, headquaitered in
Columbus, Ohio, is one of the largest insurance and financial
services companies, with $23 billion in revenues and more
than $160 billion in statutory assets. It offers a comprehensive
range of products through its family of 100-plus companies with
insurance products for auto, motorcycle, boat, life, homeowners, and farms. It also offers financial products and services
including annuities, mongages, mutual funds, pensions, and
investment management.
Nationwide strives to achieve greater efficie ncy in all
operatio ns by managing its expenses along with its ability to
grow its revenue. It recognizes the use of its su·ategic asset of
info rmation comb ined with analytics to outpace competitors
in strategic and operatio nal decision making even in complex
and unpredictable environments.
Historically, Natio nwide's business units worked independently and with a lot of autonomy. This led to duplication
of effo rts, w idely dissimilar data processing environments, and
exu·eme data redundancy, resulting in higher expenses. The
situatio n got complicated when Natio nwide pursued any mergers o r acquisitions.
Nationwide, using enterprise data warehouse technology
from Teradata, set out to create , from tl1e ground up, a single,
authoritative environn1ent for clean, consistent, and complete
data that can be effectively used for best-p ractice analytics to
make su-ategic and tactical business decisions in the areas of
customer growth, retention, product profitability, cost containment, and productivity improvements. Natio nw ide u-ansfonned
its siloed business units, which were supponed by stove-piped
data environments, into integrated units by using cutting-edge
analytics that work w ith clear, consolidated data from all of
its business units. The Teradata data warehouse at Nationwide
has grown from 400 gigabytes to more than 100 terabytes and
supports 85 percent of Nationwide's business w ith more than
2,500 users.
Integrated Customer Knowledge
Nationw ide 's Custome r Knowledge Sto re (CKS) m1t1at1ve
develo p ed a cu sto me r-centric database that integrated custo mer, product, a nd externally acquired data from mo re
than 48 sources into a single customer data mart to deliver a
holistic view of custo mers. This data mart was coupled w ith
Teradata's customer relatio nship management application to
create and ma nage effective customer marketing cam paigns
that use behavioral analysis of custome r interactions to drive
customer ma nageme nt actio ns (CMAs) for target segments.
Nationwide added mo re sophisticated customer analytics
that looked at custome r po rtfolios and the effectiveness
of various marketing campaigns . This data analysis helped
Nationwide to initiate proactive customer communicatio ns
around custo mer life time events like marriage, b irth of child,
o r ho me purchase and had significant impact on improving customer satisfactio n. Also, by integrating customer
contact history, product ownership, a nd payment informatio n, Nationwide's be havioral analytics teams fu rthe r created
p rio ritized models that could identify which specific custome r interaction was important for a customer at any given
time. This resulted in o ne percentage point improvement
in custome r retention rates and significant improvement
in custome r e nthusiasm scores. Nationwide also achieved
3 percent annual growth in incremental sales by using CKS.
There are other uses of the customer database. In one of
the initiatives, by integrating customer telepho ne data from
multiple syste ms into CKS, the relationsh ip managers at
Natio nwide tty to be proactives in contacting customers in
advance of a possible weather catastrophe, such as a hurricane or flood, to provide the primary policyholder informatio n and explain the claims p rocesses. These and other
analytic insights now d rive Natio nwide to p rovide extremely
personal customer service.
Financial Operations
A sinillar pe rformance payoff from integrated information was
also noted in financial operations. Nationwide's decentralized
management style resulted in a fragmented financial reporting environment that included more than 14 general ledgers,
20 chans of accounts, 17 separate data repositories, 12 different
repo1ting tools, and hundreds of thousands of spreadsheets.
There was no common central view of the business, which
resulted in labor-intensive slow and inaccurate reporting.
Chapter 1 • An Overview of Business Intelligence, Analytics, and Decision Support
About 75 percent of the effort was spent on acquiring, cleaning, and consolidating and validating the data, and very little
time was spent on meaningful analysis of the data.
The Financial Performance Management initiative
implemented a new o pe rating approach that worked on a
single d ata and technology architecture with a common set
of systems standardizing the process of reporting. It e nabled
Nationwide to operate analytical centers of excellence with
world-class planning, capital manageme nt, risk assessment,
and other decision support capabilities that delive red timely ,
accurate, and efficie nt accounting, reporting, and analytical
services.
The data from more than 200 operational systems was
sent to the e nterprise-wide data warehouse and the n distribute d to various applications and analytics. This resulte d in
a 50 percent improvement in the monthly closing process
with closing inte rvals reduced from 14 days to 7 days.
Postmerger Data Integration
Nationwide's Goal State Rate Manageme nt m1t1at1ve enable d the company to me rge Allied Insurance's automobile
po licy system into its existi ng syste m. Bo th atio nwide and
Allied source systems were custom-built applications that
did not share any common values or process data in the
same m anne r. Nationwide's IT departme nt de cide d to bring
all the data from source systems into a centralized data
ware house, organized in an integrated fash io n that resulted
in standard dimensional reporting and helped Nationwide
in performing what-if analyses. The data analysis team
could identify previously unknown p otential diffe re nces
in the data e nvironme nt where premiums rates were calculated diffe rently between Nationwide and Allied sides.
Correcting all of these benefited Nationwide's policyholders because they were safeguarded from experiencing w ide
pre mium rate swings.
Enhanced Reporting
Nationwide's legacy reporting system , which catered to the
nee ds of prope rty and casualty business units, took weeks
to compile and deliver the needed re ports to the agents.
Nationw ide determined that it nee ded better access to sales
and policy information to reach its sales targets. It chose a
35
single data warehouse approach and, after careful assessment
of the needs of sales manageme nt and individual agents,
selected a business intelligence platform that would integrate
dynamic enterprise dashboards into its reporting systems,
making it easy for the agents and associates to view policy
information at a glance. The new repo rting system, dubbed
Reve nue Connection, also enabled users to analyze the information with a lo t of interactive and drill-down-to-details capabilities at various levels that eliminated the need to generate
custom ad hoc reports. Revenue Connection virtually eliminate d requests for manual policy audits, resulting in huge
savings in time and money for the business and techno logy
teams. The reports were produced in 4 to 45 seconds, rather
than days o r weeks, a nd productivity in some units improved
by 20 to 30 percent.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why did Nationwide need an enterprise -w ide d ata
warehouse?
2. How did integrated data drive the business value?
3 . What forms of analytics are employed at Nationwide?
4. With integrated data available in an ente rprise d ata
warehouse, what other applications could Nationwide
potentially develop?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
The proper use of integrated information in organizatio ns can help achieve bette r business outcomes. Many
organizatio ns now rely o n data ware housing techno logies
to pe rform the online analytical processes o n the d ata to
derive valuable insights. The insights are used to develop
predictive mo dels that further e nable the growth of the
organizations by m ore precisely assessing customer needs.
Increasingly, o rganizations a re moving toward deriving
value from analytical applications in real time with the
he lp of integrated data fro m real-time data warehousing
techno logies.
Source: Te radata.com, "Nationw ide, Delivering an On Your Side
Experie nce," teradata.com/WorkArea/linkit.aspx?Linkldentifie
r=id&Item1D=14714 (accessed Februa ry 2013).
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Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
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Teradata.
CHAPTER
Foundations and Technologies
for Decision Making
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Understand the conceptual foundations
of decision making
• Understand Simon's four phases of
decision making: intelligence, design,
choice, and implementation
• Understand impo1tant DSS classifications
• Learn how DSS suppo1t for decision
making can be provided in practice
• Understand DSS components and how
they integrate
• Understand the essential definition
of DSS
ur major focus in this book is the support of decision making through
computer-based information systems. The purpose of this chapter is to describe
the conceptual foundations of decision making and how decision support is
provided. This chapter includes the following sections:
0
2.1 Opening Vignette: Decision Modeling at HP Using Spreadsheets
38
2.2 Decision Making: Introduction and Definitions
40
2.3 Phases of the Decision-Making Process 42
2.4 Decision Making: The Intelligence Phase 44
2.5 Decision Making: The Design Phase 47
2.6 Decision Making: The Choice Phase 55
2.7 Decision Making: The Implementation Phase 55
2.8 How Decisions Are Supported 56
2.9 Decision Support Systems: Capabilities 59
2.10 DSS Classifications 61
2.11 Components of Decision Support Systems
64
37
38
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
2.1
OPENING VIGNETTE: Decision Modeling at HP Using
Spreadsheets
HP is a major manufacturer of computers, printers, and many industrial products. Its vast
product line leads to many decision problems. Olavson and Fry (2008) have worked on
many spreadsheet models for assisting decision makers at HP and have identified several
lessons from both their successes and their failures when it comes to constructing and
applying spreadsheet-based tools. They define a tool as "a reusable, analytical solution
designed to be handed off to nontechnical end users to assist them in solving a repeated
business problem."
When trying to solve a problem, HP developers consider the three phases in developing a model. The first phase is problem framing, where they consider the following
questions in order to develop the best solution for the problem:
• Will analytics solve the problem?
• Can an existing solution be leveraged?
• Is a tool needed?
The first question is important because the problem may not be of an analytic nature,
and therefore, a spreadsheet tool may not be of much help in the long run without fixing
the nonanalytical part of the problem first. For example , many inventory-related issues
arise because of the inherent differences between the goals of marketing and supply
chain groups. Marketing likes to have the maximum variety in the product line, whereas
supply chain management focuses on reducing the inventory costs. This difference is partially outside the scope of any model. Coming up with nonmodeling solutions is important as well. If the problem arises due to "misalignment" of incentives or unclear lines
of authority or plans, no model can help. Thus, it is important to identify the root issue.
The second question is important because sometimes an existing tool may solve a
problem that then saves time and money. Sometimes modifying an existing tool may solve
the problem, again saving some time and money, but sometimes a custom tool is necessary to solve the problem. This is clearly worthwhile to explore.
The third question is important because sometimes a new computer-based system
is not required to solve the problem. The developers have found that they often use
analytically derived decision guidelines instead of a tool. This solution requires less time
for development and training, has lower maintenance requirements, and also provides
simpler and more intuitive results. That is, after they have explored the problem deeper,
the developers may determine that it is better to present decision rules that can be easily implemented as guidelines for decision making rather than asking the managers to
run some type of a computer model. This results in easier training, better understanding
of the rules being proposed, and increased acceptance. It also typically leads to lower
development costs and reduced time for deployment.
If a model has to be built, the developers move on to the second phase-the actual
design and development of the tools. Adhering to five guidelines tends to increase the
probability that the new tool will be successful. The first guideline is to develop a prototype as quickly as possible. This allows the developers to test the designs, demonstrate
various features and ideas for the new tools, get early feedback from the end users to
see what works for them and what needs to be changed, and test adoption. Developing
a prototype also prevents the developers from overbuilding the tool and yet allows them
to construct more scalable and standardized software applications later. Additionally, by
developing a prototype, developers can stop the process once the tool is "good enough, "
rather than building a standardized solution that would take longer to build and be more
expensive.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
The second guideline is to "build insight, n o t black boxes. " The HP spreadsheet
model developers believe that this is impo rtant, because ofte n just e ntering some data
and receiving a calculated output is not enough. The u sers need to be able to think
of alternative scen arios, and the tool d oes not support this if it is a "black box" that
provides o nly o ne recomme ndation. They argue that a tool is best only if it provides
informatio n to help make and support decisio ns rather than just give the answers. They
also believe that an interactive tool h elps the u sers to unde rstand the problem better,
therefore leading to mo re informed decisions.
The third guideline is to "remove unneeded complexity before handoff. " This is
important, because as a tool becomes more complex it requires mo re training and expertise, more data, and more recalibrations. The risk of bugs and misuse also increases.
Sometimes it is best to study the problem, begin modeling and analysis, and then start
shaping the program into a simple-to-use tool for the end user.
The fourth guideline is to "partner with end users in discovery and design. " By working with the end users the developers get a better feel of the problem and a better idea
of what the end users want. It also increases the end users' ability to use analytic tools.
The end users also gain a better understanding of the problem and how it is solved u sing
the new tool. Additionally, including the end users in the development process enhances
the decision makers' analytical knowledge a nd capabilities. By working together, their
knowledge and skills complement each other in the final solution .
The fifth guideline is to "develop an Operations Research (OR) champio n ." By involving end users in the development process, the developers create champions for the new
tools w ho then go back to their departments o r companies and encourage their coworkers to accept and use them. The champions are then the experts on the tools in their areas
and can then help those being introduced to the new tools. Having champio ns increases
the possibility that the tools w ill be adopted into the businesses successfully .
The final stage is the handoff, when the final tools that provide complete solutions
are given to the businesses. When planning the handoff, it is important to answer the following questions:
• Who w ill use the tool?
• Who owns the decisions that the tool w ill support?
• Who else must be involved?
• Who is responsible for maintenance and enhancement of the tool?
• When will the tool be used?
• How will the use of the tool fit in w ith other processes?
• Does it change the processes?
• Does it generate input into those processes?
• How will the tool impact business performance?
• Are the existing metrics sufficient to reward this aspect of performance?
• How should the metrics and incentives be changed to maximize impact to the business from the tool and process?
By keeping these lessons in mind, developers and proponents of computerized decision support in gene ral and spreadsheet-based models in particular are likely to enjoy
greater success.
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. What are some of the key questions to be asked in supporting decision making
through DSS?
2. What guidelines can be learned from this vignette about developing DSS?
3. What lessons should be kept in mind for successful model implementation?
39
40
Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETTE
This vignette relates to providing decision support in a large organization:
• Before building a model, decision makers should develop a good understanding of
the problem that needs to be addressed.
• A model may not be necessary to address the problem.
• Before developing a new tool, decision makers should explore reuse of existing tools.
• The goal of model building is to gain better insight into the problem, not just to
generate more numbers.
• Implementatio n plans should be developed along with the model.
Source: Based on T. O lavson and C. Fry, "Spre adsheet Decision-Support Tools: Lesso ns Learne d at Hew le ttPackard," ln teifaces, Vol. 38, No. 4, July/August 2008, pp. 300-310.
2.2
DECISION MAKING: INTRODUCTION AND DEFINITIONS
We are about to examine how decision making is practiced and some of the underlying
theories and models of decision making. You w ill also learn about the various traits of
decision makers, including what ch aracterizes a good decision maker. Knowing this can
help you to understand the types of decision support tools that managers can use to
make mo re effective decisions. In the following sections, we discuss various aspects of
decision making.
Characteristics of Decision Making
In additio n to the characteristics presented in the opening vignette, decision making
may involve the fo llowing:
• Groupthink (i.e., group members accept the solution without thinking for themselves) can lead to bad decisions.
• Decision makers are interested in evaluating what-if scenarios.
• Experimentation with a real system (e.g., develop a schedule, try it, and see how
well it works) may result in failure.
• Experimentation with a real system is possible only for one set of conditions at a
time and can be disastrous.
• Changes in the decision-making environment may occur continuously, leading to
invalidating assumptions about a situation (e.g., deliveries around holiday times may
increase, requiring a different view of the problem).
• Changes in the decision-making environment may affect decision quality by imposing time pressure on the decision maker.
• Collecting information and an alyzing a problem takes time and can be expensive. It
is difficult to determine w he n to stop and make a decisio n .
• There may not be sufficient information to make an intelligent decision.
• Too much information may b e available (i.e. , info rmatio n overload).
To determine how real decision makers make decisions, we must first understand the
process and the important issues involved in decision making. Then we can understand
appropriate methodologies for assisting decision makers and the contributions information
systems can make. Only then can we develop DSS to help decision makers.
This chapter is organized based o n the three key words that form the term DSS:
decision, support, and systems. A de cisio n maker should not simply apply IT tools
b lindly. Rather, the decision ma ker gets support throug h a ratio nal approach that
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
simplifies reality and provides a relatively quick and inexpensive means of considering
various alte rnative courses of action to arrive at the best (or at least a ve1y good) solutio n to the problem.
A Working Definition of Decision Making
Decision making is a process of choosing among two or more alternative courses of
action for the purpose of attaining one or more goals. According to Simon (1977), managerial decision making is synonymo u s w ith the entire management process. Consider
the important managerial function of planning. Planning involves a series of decisions:
What should be done? When? Where? Why? How? By w hom? Managers set goals, or plan;
he nce, planning implies decision making. Other managerial functions, such as organizing
and controlling, also involve decisio n making.
Decision-Making Disciplines
Decision making is directly influenced by several major disciplines, some of which are
behavioral and some of which are scientific in nature. We must be aware of how their
philosophies can affect our ability to make decisions and provide support. Behavioral
disciplines include anthropology, law, philosophy, political science, psychology, social
psychology, and sociology. Scientific disciplines include computer science, decision
analysis, econo mics, engineering, the hard sciences (e.g. , biology, chemistry, p hysics),
manageme nt science/ operations research, mathematics, and statistics.
An important characteristic of management support systems (MSS) is their emphasis on the effectiveness, or "goodness," of the decision produced rather than on the
computational efficie ncy of obtaining it; this is usually a major concern of a transaction
processing system. Most Web-based DSS are focused on improving decision effectiveness.
Efficiency may be a by-product.
Decision Style and Decision Makers
In the following sections, we examine the notion of decision style and specific aspects
about decision makers.
DECISION STYLE Decision style is the manner by which decision makers think and react
to problems. This includes the way they perceive a problem, their cognitive responses,
and how values and beliefs vary from individual to individual and from situation to
situatio n . As a result, people make decisions in different ways. Although there is a general
process of decision making, it is far from linear. People do not follow the same steps
of the process in the same sequence, nor do they use all the steps. Furthermore, the
emphasis, time allo tment, and priorities given to each step vary significantly, not only
fro m o ne person to a nother, but also from o ne situatio n to the next. The manner in which
managers make decisions (and the way they inte ract w ith other people) describes their
decision style . Because decision styles depend on the factors described earlier, there are
many decision styles. Personality temperament tests are often used to determine decision
styles. Because there are many su ch tests, it is important to try to equate them in determining decision style. However, the various tests measure somewhat different aspects of
pe rsonality, so they cannot be equated.
Researchers have identified a numbe r of decision-making styles. These include heuristic and analytic styles. One can also distinguish between autocratic versus democratic
styles. Another style is consultative (with individuals or groups). Of course, there are
many combinations and variatio ns of styles. For example, a person can be analytic and
autocratic, o r consultative (with individuals) a nd heuristic.
41
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
For a computerized system to successfully support a manager, it should fit the
decision situation as well as the decision style. Therefore, the system should be flexible
and adaptable to different use rs. The ability to ask w hat-if and goal-seeking questions
provides flexibility in this direction. A Web-based interface using graphics is a desirable
feature in supporting certain decision styles. If a DSS is to support varying styles, skills,
and knowledge, it should not attempt to enforce a specific process. Rather, it should help
decision makers use and develop their own styles, skills, and knowledge.
Different decision styles re quire different types of support. A major factor that determines the type of support required is w hether the decision maker is an individual or a
group. Individual decision makers need access to data and to experts who can provide
advice, w hereas groups additio nally need collaboration tools. Web-based DSS can provide support to both.
A lo t of information is available on the Web about cognitive styles and decision
styles (e.g., see Birkman International, Inc. , birkman.com; Keirsey Temperament Sorter
and Keirsey Temperament Theory-II, keirsey.com) . Many personality/ temperament tests
are available to he lp managers identify their own styles and those of their employees.
Identifying an individual's style can help establish the most effective communication
p atterns and ideal tasks for which the p erson is suited.
Decisions are often made by individuals, especially at lower managerial levels and in small organizations. There may be conflicting objectives even for a sole
decision maker. For example, w hen making an investment decision, an individual investor
may consider the rate of return on the investment, liquidity, and safety as objectives. Finally,
decisions may be fully automated (but only after a human decision maker decides to do so!).
This discussion of decision making focuses in large part o n an individual decision
maker. Most major decisions in medium-sized and large organizatio ns are made by groups.
Obviously, there are often conflicting objectives in a group decision-making setting. Groups
can be of variable size and may include people from different departments or from different o rganizatio ns. Collaborating individuals may have different cognitive styles, personality
types, and decision styles. Some clash, w hereas others are mutually enhancing. Consensus
can be a difficult political problem. Therefore, the process of decision making by a group
can be ve1y complicated. Computerized support can greatly enhance group decision
making. Computer support can be provided at a broad level, enabling members of whole
departments, divisions, or even entire organizations to collaborate online . Su ch supp ort
has evolved over the past few years into enterprise information systems (EIS) and includes
group support systems (GSS), enterprise resource management (ERM)/enterprise resource
planning (ERP), supply chain management (SCM), knowledge management systems (KMS),
and customer relationship management (CRM) systems.
DECISION MAKERS
SECTION 2.2 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the various aspects of decisio n making7
2. Identify similarities and differe nces between individual and group decision making .
3. Define decision style and describe w hy it is important to consider in the decisionmaking process.
4. What are the benefits of mathematical models?
2.3
PHASES OF THE DECISION-MAKING PROCESS
It is advisable to follow a systematic decision-making process. Simon 0977) said that this
involves three major phases: intelligence, design , and choice. He later added a fourth phase,
implementation. Monitoring can be considered a fifth phase- a form of feedback. However,
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Simplification
Assumptions
Organization objectives
Search and scanning procedures
Data collection
Problem identification
Problem ownership
Problem classification
Problem statement
-1- - - - - -;
Formulate a model
Validation of the model
Set criteria for choice
Search for alternatives
~ • • • • • -:
Predict and measure outcomes
Success~
Verification, testing of
ro osed solution
Solution to the model
Sensitivity analysis
Selection of the best (good)
alternative(s)
Plan for implementation
... • • • • • • I
Implementation
of solution
- - - - - - - - - - - - -?- ----------------------------------_:
• Failure
FIGURE 2.1
The Decision-Making/Modeling Process.
we view monitoring as the intelligence phase applied to the implementation phase. Simon's
model is the most concise and yet complete characterization of ratio nal decision making.
A conceptual picture of the decision-making process is shown in Figure 2. 1.
There is a continuous flow of activity fro m intelligence to design to choice (see the
bold lines in Figure 2.1), but at any phase, there may be a return to a previous phase
(feedback). Modeling is an essential part o f this process. The seemingly chaotic nature of
following a haphazard path from problem discovery to solutio n via decision making can
be explained by these feedback loops.
The decision-making process starts w ith the intelligence phase; in this phase, the
decision maker examines reality and identifies and defines the problem. Problem ownership
is established as well. In the design phase, a model that represents the system is constrncted.
This is done by making assumptions that simplify reality and w riting down the relationships
among all the variables. The model is then validated, and criteria are determined in a principle of choice for evaluation of the alternative courses of action that are identified. Often, the
process of model development identifies alternative solutions and vice versa.
The choice phase includes selection of a proposed solution to the model (not
necessarily to the problem it represents). This solutio n is tested to determine its viability.
When the proposed solution seems reasonable, we are ready for the last phase: implementation of the decision (not necessarily of a system). Successful implementation results
in solving the real problem. Failure leads to a return to an earlier phase of the process. In
fact, we can return to an earlier phase during any of the latter three phases. The decisionmaking situatio ns described in the opening vignette follow Simon's four-phase model, as
do almost all other decision-making situations. Web impacts on the four phases, and vice
versa, are shown in Table 2.1 .
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
TABLE 2.1
Simon's Four Phases of Decision Making and the Web
Phase
Web Impacts
Impacts on the Web
Intell igence
Access to information to identify
problems and opportunities from
internal and external data sources
Identification of opportunities for
e-commerce, Web infrastructure,
hardware and software tools, etc.
Access to analytics methods to
identify opportunities
Intelligent agents, which reduce the
burden of information overload
Collaboration through group support
systems (GSS) and knowledge
management systems (KMS)
Smart search engines
Access to data, models, and solution
methods
Brainstorming methods (e.g ., GSS)
to collaborate in Web
infrastructure design
Design
Use of online analytical processing
(OLAP), data mining, and data
warehouses
Models and solutions of Web
infrast ructure issues
Collaboration through GSS and KMS
Similar solutions available from KMS
Choice
Access to methods to evaluate the
impacts of proposed solutions
Decision support system (DSS) tools,
which examine and establish criteria
from models to determine Web,
intranet, and extranet infrastructure
DSS tools, which determine how
to route messages
Implementation
Web-based collaboration tools (e.g.,
GSS) and KMS, which can assist in
implementing decisions
Decisions implemented on browser
and server design and access,
which ultimately determined how
to set up the various components
that have evolved into the Internet
Tools, which monitor the performance
of e-commerce and other sites,
including intranets, extranets, and
the Internet
Note that there are many other decision-making processes. Notable among them is
the Kepner-Tregoe method (Kepner and Tregoe, 1998), which has been adopted by many
firms because its tools are readily available from Kepner-Tregoe, Inc. (kepner-tregoe.
com). We have found that these alternative models, including the Kepner-Tregoe method,
readily map into Simon 's four-phase model.
We next turn to a detailed discussion of the four phases identified by Simon.
SECTION 2.3 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. List and briefly describe Simon's four phases of decision making.
2. What are the impacts of the Web on the phases of decision making?
2.4
DECISION MAKING: THE INTELLIGENCE PHASE
Intelligence in decision making involves scanning the environment, either intermittently
or continuously. It includes several activities aimed at identifying problem situations or
opportunities. It may also include monitoring the results of the implementation phase of
a decision-making process.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Problem (or Opportunity) Identification
The intelligence phase begins with the identification of organizational goals and objectives
related to an issue of concern (e.g., inventory manageme nt, job selection, lack of or incorrect
Web presence) and determination of w hether they are being met. Problems occur because of
dissatisfaction with the status quo. Dissatisfaction is the result of a difference between what
people desire (or expect) and what is occurring. In this first phase, a decision maker attempts
to determine whether a problem exists, identify its symptoms, determine its magnitude, and
explicitly define it. Often, what is described as a problem (e.g., excessive costs) may be
only a symptom (i.e., measure) of a problem (e.g., improper invento1y levels). Because realworld problems are usually complicated by many interrelated factors, it is sometimes difficult
to distinguish between the symptoms and the real problem. New opportunities and problems certainly may be uncovered while investigating the causes of symptoms. For example,
Application Case 2.1 describes a classic story of recognizing the correct problem.
The existence of a problem can be determined by monitoring and analyzing the
organization's productivity level. The measurement of productivity and the construction
of a model are based on real data. The collection of data and the estimation of future data
are amo ng the most difficult step s in the analysis. The following are some issues that may
arise during data collection and estimatio n and thus plague decisio n makers:
• Data are not available . As a result, the model is made with, and relies on, p otentially
inaccurate estimates.
• Obtaining data may be expensive.
• Data may not be accurate or precise enough.
• Data estimatio n is ofte n subjective.
• Data may be insecure.
• Important data that influence the results may be qualitative (soft).
• There may be too many data (i.e. , informatio n overload).
Application Case 2.1
Making Elevators Go Faster!
This sto1y has been reported in numerous places
and has almost become a classic example to explain
the need for problem identification. Ackoff (as cited
in Larson , 1987) described the problem of managing
complaints about slow elevators in a tall hotel tower.
After trying many solutions for reducing the complaint: staggering elevators to go to different floors,
adding o perators, and so on, the management determined that the real problem was not about the actual
waiting time but rathe r the p erceived waiting time.
So the solution was to install full-length mirrors on
elevator doors on each floor. As Hesse and Woolsey
(1975) put it, "the women would look at the mselves
in the mirrors and make adjustments, w hile the men
would look at the women , and before they knew it,
the e levator was there ." By reducing the perceived
waiting time, the problem went away. Baker and
Cameron 0996) give several other examples of distractions, including lighting, displays, and so on, that
organizations use to reduce perceived waiting time .
If the real problem is identified as perceived waiting
time, it can make a big difference in the proposed
solutions and their costs. For example, full-length
mirrors probably cost a whole lot less than adding
an elevator!
Sources: Based on J. Baker and M. Cameron, "The Effects of
the Service Environment on Affect and Consumer Perception of
Waiting Time: An Integrative Review and Research Propositions,"
Journal of the Academy ofMarketing Science, Vol. 24, September
1996, pp. 338-349; R. Hesse and G. Woolsey, Applied Management
Science: A Quick and Dirty Approach, SRA Inc., Chicago, 1975;
R. C. Larson, "Perspectives on Queues: Social J ustice and the
Psychology of Queuing," Operations Research, Vol. 35, No. 6,
November/ December 1987, pp. 895- 905.
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
• Outcomes (or results) may occur over an extended period. As a result, revenues, expenses, and profits w ill be recorded at different points in time. To
overcome this difficulty, a present-value approach can be used if the results are
quantifiable.
• It is assumed that future data will be similar to historical data. If this is not the case,
the nature of the change has to be predicted and included in the analysis.
When the preliminary investigation is completed, it is possible to determine w hether
a problem really exists, where it is located, and how significant it is. A key issue is w he ther
an informatio n system is reporting a problem o r o nly the symptoms of a problem. For
example, if reports indicate that sales are down, there is a problem, but the situation, no
doubt, is symptomatic of the problem. It is critical to know the real problem. Sometimes
it may be a problem of perception , incentive mismatch, or organizational processes rather
than a poor decision model.
Problem Classification
Problem classification is the conceptualization of a problem in an attempt to place it in
a definable category, possibly leading to a standard solutio n approach . An important
approach classifies problems according to the degree of structuredness evident in them.
This ranges from totally structured (i.e., programmed) to totally unstructured (i.e., unprogrammed), as described in Chapter 1.
Problem Decomposition
Many complex problems can be divided into subproblems. Solving the simpler subproble ms may help in solving a complex problem. Also, seemingly poorly structured problems
sometimes have highly structured subproble ms. Just as a semistructured problem results
w hen some phases of decision ma king are structured w hereas other phases are unstructured, so whe n some subproblems of a decision-making problem are structured with
others unstructured, the problem itself is semistructured. As a DSS is develo ped and the
decision maker and development staff learn more about the problem, it gains structure.
Decomposition also facilitates communicatio n amo ng decision makers. Decomposition is
o ne of the most important aspects of the analytical hierarchy process. (AHP is discussed
in Chapte r 11, which helps decision makers incorpo rate both qualitative and quantitative
factors into the ir decision-making models.)
Problem Ownership
In the intelligence phase, it is important to establish problem ownersh ip. A problem
exists in an organization o nly if someone or some group takes o n the responsibility of
attacking it and if the organizatio n has the ability to solve it. The assignment of autho rity to solve the problem is called problem ownership. For example, a ma nager may
feel that he or she has a problem because interest rates are too high. Because interest
rate levels are determined at the n ational a nd international levels, and most managers
can do nothing about the m , high interest rates are the problem of the government, not
a problem for a specific company to solve. The problem companies actu ally face is
how to operate in a high-inte rest-rate environme nt. For an individual company, the
interest rate level should be handle d as an uncontrollable (environmental) factor to be
predicte d.
When problem owne rship is not established, either someone is no t doing his or
her job or the problem at hand has yet to be identified as belonging to anyone. It is then
important for someone to e ithe r volunteer to own it or assign it to someone.
The inte lligence p hase e nds w ith a formal problem stateme nt.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
SECTION 2.4 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is the difference between a problem and its symptoms?
2. Why is it impo rtant to classify a problem?
3. What is meant by p roblem decomposition?
4. Why is establishing problem ownership so importa nt in the decision-making process?
2.5
DECISION MAKING: THE DESIGN PHASE
The design phase involves finding or developing and analyzing possible courses of action .
These include understanding the problem and testing solu tio ns for feasibility. A model
of the decision-making problem is constructed, tested, and validated. Let us first define
a model.
Models1
A majo r characteristic of a DSS and many BI tools (notably those of business analytics) is the
inclusion of at least o ne model. The basic idea is to perform the DSS analysis on a model
of reality rather than on the real system . A model is a simplified representation or abstraction of reality. It is usually simplified because reality is too complex to describe exactly and
because much of the complexity is actually irrelevant in solving a specific problem.
Mathematical (Quantitative) Models
The complexity of relationships in many organizational systems is described mathematically. Most DSS analyses are performed numerically with mathematical or other quantitative
models.
The Benefits of Models
We use models for the following reasons:
• Manipulating a model (changing decisio n variables or the environment) is much
easier than manipulating a real system. Experimentation is easier and does not
interfere with the o rganizatio n's daily operations.
• Models enable the compression of time. Years of operations can be simulated in
minutes o r seconds of computer time.
• The cost of modeling analysis is much lower than the cost of a similar experiment
conducted on a real system.
• The cost of making mistakes during a trial-and-error experiment is much lower
w hen models are used than with real systems.
• The business environment involves considerable uncertainty. With modeling, a
manager can estimate the risks resulting from specific actions.
• Mathematical models enable the analysis of a very large, sometimes infinite, number
of possible solutio ns. Even in simple proble ms, managers often have a large number
of alte rnatives from which to choose.
• Models enhance and reinforce learning and training .
• Models and solution methods are readily available.
Modeling involves conceptualizing a problem and abstracting it to quantitative
and/ or qualitative form (see Chapter 9). For a mathematical model, the variables are
'Caution: Many students a nd professionals view models strictly as those of "data modeling" in the context o f
systems analysis and design. Here, we consider analytical models such as those of linear programming, simulatio n, and forecasting.
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Ove rview
identified, and their mutual relationships are established. Simplificatio ns are made,
w henever necessary, through assumptions. For example, a relationship between two
variables may be assumed to be linear even though in reality there may be some nonlinear effects. A proper b alance be twee n the level of model simplification and the representatio n of reality must be obtained because of the cost-be nefit trade-off. A simpler
model leads to lower development costs, easier manipulation, and a faster solution but
is less representative of the real problem and can produce inaccurate results . However,
a simple r model gene rally re quires fewer data , o r the data are aggregated and easier
to obtain.
The process of modeling is a combination of art and science. As a science, there
are many standard model classes available , and, w ith practice, an analyst can determine
w hich one is applicable to a given situation. As an art, creativity and finesse are required
w he n determining what simplifying assumptions can work, how to combine approp riate features of the model classes, and how to integrate models to obtain valid solutions.
Models have decision variables that describe the alternatives from among which a
manager must choose (e.g., how many cars to deliver to a sp ecific rental agency, how to
advertise at specific times, w hich Web server to buy or lease), a result variable or a set
of result variables (e.g. , profit, revenue, sales) that describes the objective or goal of the
decision-making problem, and uncontrollable variables or paramete rs (e.g., econo mic
conditions) that describe the environment. The process of modeling involves determining the (usually mathe matical, sometimes symbolic) relationships among the variables.
These topics are discussed in Chapter 9.
Selection of a Principle of Choice
A principle of choice is a crite rio n that describes the acceptability of a solutio n
approach . In a model, it is a result variable. Selecting a principle of cho ice is not part
of the choice phase but involves h ow a p e rson establishes decision-making objective(s)
and incorporates the objective(s) into the model(s). Are we willing to assume high
risk , or do we prefer a low-risk approach? Are we attempting to optimize or satisfice?
It is also important to recognize the difference between a criterion and a constraint
(see Technology Insights 2.1). Among the many principles of choice, normative and
descriptive are of prime importance.
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 2.1
and a Constraint
The Difference Between a Criterion
Many people new to the formal study of decisio n making inadvenently confuse the concepts of
criterion and constraint. Often, this is because a criterion may imply a constraint, either implicit
or explicit, thereby adding to the confusion. For example, there may be a distance criterion that
the decision make r does not want to travel too far from ho me . However, there is an implicit
constraint that the alternatives from which he selects must be within a cen ain distance from his
ho me . This constraint effectively says that if the distance from home is greater than a ceitain
amount, then the alternative is not feasible- o r, rather, the distance to an alte rnative must b e less
than or equal to a certain number (this would be a formal relatio nship in some models; in the
model in this case, it reduces the search, considering fewer alternatives). This is similar to what
happens in some cases w hen selecting a university, where schools beyond a single day's driving distance would not be considered by most people, and, in fact, the utility fun ction (criterio n
value) of distance can start out low close to home, peak at about 70 miles (about 100 km)- say,
the distance between Atlanta (home) and Athe ns, Georgia- and sharply drop off thereafter.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Normative Models
Nonnative models are models in which the chosen alternative is demo nstrably the best
of all possible alternatives. To find it, the decision maker should examine all the alternatives and prove that the o ne selected is indeed the best, which is what the person would
normally want. This process is basically optimization. This is typically the goal of what
we call prescriptive analytics (Part IV). In o peratio nal terms, optimizatio n can be achieved
in o ne of three ways:
1 . Get the highest level of goal attainment from a given set of resources. For example,
w hich alternative w ill yield the maximum profit from an investment of $10 million?
2. Find the alternative with the highest ratio of goal attainment to cost (e.g., profit per
dollar invested) or maximize productivity.
3. Find the alternative with the lowest cost (or smallest amount of other resources) that
w ill meet an acceptable level of goals. For example, if your task is to select hardware
for an intranet with a minimum bandwidth, which alternative w ill accomplish this
goal at the least cost?
Normative decision theory is based o n the following assumptions of rational
decisio n makers:
• Humans are economic beings w hose objective is to maximize the attainment of
goals; that is, the decision maker is ratio nal. (More of a good thing [revenue, fun] is
better than less; less of a bad thing [cost, pain] is better than more.)
• Fo r a decision-making situation, all viable alternative courses of action and their
consequences, or at least the probability and the values of the consequences, are
known .
• Decisio n makers have an order or preference that enables them to rank the desirability of all consequences of the analysis (best to worst).
Are decision makers really rational? Though there may be major anomalies in the presumed rationality of financial and economic behavior, we take the view that they could be
caused by incompetence, lack of knowledge, multiple goals being framed inadequately, misunderstanding of a decision maker's true expected utility, and time-pressure impacts. There
are other anomalies, often caused by time pressure. For example, Stewart (2002) described
a number of researchers working with intuitive decision making. The idea of "thinking with
your gut" is obviously a heuristic approach to decision making. It works well for firefighters
and military personnel on the battlefield. One critical aspect of decision making in this mode
is that many scenarios have been thought through in advance. Even when a situation is new,
it can quickly be matched to an existing one on-the-fly, and a reasonable solution can be
obtained (through pattern recognition). Luce et al. (2004) described how emotions affect
decision making, and Pauly (2004) discussed inconsistencies in decision making.
We believe that irrationality is caused by the factors listed previously. Fo r example, Tversky et al. 0990) investigated the phenomeno n of preference reversal, which is
a known problem in applying the AHP to problems. Also, some crite rion or preference
may be omitted from the analysis. Ratner et al. 0999) investigated how variety can cause
individuals to choose less-preferred options, even though they will enjoy them less. But
we maintain that variety clearly has value, is part of a decision maker's utility, and is a
criterion and/ or constraint that should be considered in decision making.
Suboptimization
By definition, optimizatio n requires a decision maker to consider the impact of each alternative course of action on the entire organizatio n because a decision made in o ne area
may have significant effects (positive o r negative) o n other areas. Consider, for example, a
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
marketing department that impleme nts an electronic commerce (e-commerce) site. Within
hours, o rders far exceed production capacity. The production department, which plans
its own schedule, cannot meet demand. It may gear u p for as high demand as possible. Ideally and independently, the department should produce only a few products in
extremely large quantities to minimize manufacturing costs. However, such a plan might
result in large, costly inventories and marketing difficulties caused by the lack of a variety
of products, especially if customers start to cancel orders that are not met in a timely way.
This situation illustrates the sequential nature of decision making.
A systems point of view assesses the impact of every decision o n the entire system. Thus, the marketing department should make its plans in conjunction with other
departments. However, su ch an approach may require a complicated, expensive, timeconsuming analysis. In practice, the MSS builder may close the system within n arrow
boundaries, considering o nly the part of the organization under study (the marketing and/
or production department, in this case). By simplifying, the model the n does not incorporate certain complicated relatio nships that describe interactio ns w ith and among the o ther
departments. The other departments can be aggregated into simple model components.
Such an approach is called suboptimization.
If a suboptimal decision is made in one part of the o rganization without considering
the details of the rest of the organizatio n , then an optimal solutio n from the point of view
of that p art may be inferior for the whole. However, su boptimizatio n may still be a very
practical approach to decision making, and many problems are first approached from this
perspective. It is possible to reach tentative conclusions (and generally usable resu lts) by
analyzing only a portion of a system, without getting bogged down in too many details.
After a solutio n is proposed, its potential effects on the remaining depa1tments of the
organization can be tested. If no significant negative effects are found, the solution can
be implemented.
Suboptimization may also apply when simplifying assumptions are used in modeling a specific problem. There may be too many details or too many data to incorporate
into a specific decision-making situatio n , and so not all of them are used in the model.
If the solutio n to the mode l seems reasonable, it may be valid for the problem and thus
be adopted. For example, in a production department, parts are often partitioned into
A/ B/ C inventory categories. Generally, A items (e.g ., large gears, w hole assemblies) are
expensive (say, $3,000 or more each), built to order in small batches, and inventoried in
low quantities; C items (e.g ., nuts, bolts, screws) are very inexpensive (say, less than $2)
and ordered and used in ve1y large quantities; and B ite ms fall in between . All A items
can be handle d by a detailed scheduling model and physically monitored closely by management; B items are generally som ewhat aggregated, their groupings are scheduled, and
management reviews these parts less frequently; and C items are not scheduled but are
simply acquired or built based on a p olicy defined by management with a simple economic order quantity (EOQ) o rdering system that assumes constant annual demand. The
policy might be reviewed o nce a year. This situation applies w he n determining all crite ria
o r mo deling the entire problem becomes prohibitively time-consuming or expensive.
Suboptimization may also involve simply bounding the search for an optimum
(e.g., by a heuristic) by conside ring fewer criteria o r alternatives or by eliminating large
portions of the problem from evaluation. If it takes too long to solve a problem, a goodenough solutio n found already may be used and the optimization effort terminated.
Descriptive Models
Descriptive models describe things as they are or as they are believed to be. These
models are typically mathematically based. Descriptive models are extremely useful in
DSS for investigating the consequences of various alternative courses of actio n under
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
different configurations of inputs and processes. However, because a descriptive analysis
checks the performance of the syste m for a given set of alternatives (rather than for all
alternatives), there is no guarantee tha t an alternative selected with the aid of descriptive
analysis is o ptimal. In many cases, it is o nly satisfactory.
Simulation is probably the most commo n descriptive modeling method. Simulation
is the imitation of reality and has been applied to many areas of decision making.
Computer and video games are a form of simulation : An artificial reality is created, and
the game p layer lives within it. Vi11ual reality is also a form of simulation because the environment is simulated, not real. A common use of simulation is in manufacturing. Again,
consider the production department of a firm w ith complications caused by the marketing
de paltment. The characteristics of each machine in a job shop along the supply chain
can be described mathematically. Relationships can be established based o n how each
machine physically runs and relates to others. Given a trial schedule of batches of parts,
it is possible to measure how batches flow through the system and to use the statistics
from each machine. Alternative schedules may then be tried and the statistics recorded
until a reasonable schedule is found. Marketing can examine access and purchase patterns on its Web site. Simulation can be used to determine how to structure a Web site for
improved p erformance and to estimate future purchases. Both departments can therefore
use primarily experime ntal modeling methods.
Classes of descriptive models include the following :
• Complex inventory decisions
• Environmental impact analysis
• Financial planning
• Information flow
• Markov analysis (predictions)
• Scenario analysis
• Simulation (alternative types)
• Technological forecasting
• Waiting-line (queuing) management
A number of nonmathematical descriptive models are available for decision making. One is the cognitive map (see Eden and Ackermann, 2002; and Jenkins, 2002). A
cognitive map can he lp a decision make r sketch out the impoltant qualitative factors and
their causal relationships in a messy decision-making situation. This helps the decision
maker (or decision-making group) focus on w hat is relevant and w hat is not, and the
map evolves as more is learned about the problem. The map can he lp the decisio n maker
understand issues better, focus better, and reach closure. One inte resting software tool
for cognitive mapping is Decisio n Explorer fro m Banxia Software Ltd. (banxia.com; try
the demo) .
Another descriptive decision-ma king model is the use of narratives to describe a
decision-making situatio n. A narrative is a story that he lps a decisio n maker uncover the
impoltant aspects of the situation and leads to better understanding and framing. This is
extremely effective w he n a group is making a decision, and it can lead to a mo re common viewpoint, also called a frame. Juries in coult trials typically use narrative-based
approaches in reaching verdicts (see Allan, Frame, and Turney, 2003; Beach, 2005; and
Denning, 2000).
Good Enough, or Satisficing
According to Simon 0977), most human decision making, w hether organizational or individual, involves a w illingness to settle for a satisfactory solution , "something less than the
best." When satisficing, the decisio n make r sets up an aspiratio n, a goal, or a desired
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
level of performance and then searches the alternatives until o ne is found that achieves
this level. The usual reasons for satisficing are time pressures (e.g., decisions may lose
value over time), the ability to achieve optimization (e.g., solving some models could
take a really long time, and recognition that the marginal be nefit of a better solution is
not worth the marginal cost to obtain it (e.g. , in searching the Internet, you can look at
only so many Web sites before you run out of time and energy). In such a situation, the
decision maker is behaving rationally, though in reality he or she is satisficing. Essentially,
satisficing is a form of suboptimization . There may be a best solution, an optimum , but it
would be difficult, if not impossible, to attain it. With a normative model, too much computation may be involved; with a descriptive model, it may not be possible to evaluate all
the sets of alternatives.
Related to satisficing is Simon 's idea of bounded rationality. Humans h ave a
limited capacity for rational thinking; they generally construct and analyze a simplified model of a real situation by considering fewer alternatives, criteria, and/ or
constraints than actually exist. Their behavior w ith respect to the simplified model
may be ratio nal. However, the ration al solutio n for the simplified model may n ot be
rational for the real-world problem. Rationality is bounded not only by limitations on
human processing cap acities, but also by individual differences, such as age, education, knowledge, and attitudes. Bounded ratio nality is also why ma ny models are
descriptive rather than normative. This may also explain why so many good managers
rely o n intuition , a n important aspect of good decision making (see Stewart, 2002; and
Pauly, 2004).
Because rationality and the use of normative models lead to good decision s, it is
natural to ask w hy so many bad decisions are made in practice. Intuition is a critical
factor that decisio n makers u se in solving unstructured and semistructured problems.
The best decision makers recognize the trade-off between the marginal cost of obtaining further informa tio n and an alysis versus the benefit of making a better decision. But
sometimes decisions must be made quickly, and, ideally, the intuition of a season ed,
excellent decision maker is called for. When adequate planning, funding, or information is no t available, o r w he n a decision maker is inexperie nced or ill trained, disaster
can strike.
Developing (Generating) Alternatives
A significant part of the model-building process is generating alternatives. In optimization
models (such as linear programming), the alternatives may be generated automatically by
the model. In most decision situations, however, it is necessary to generate alternatives
manually. This can be a lengthy process that involves searching and creativity, perhaps
utilizing electronic brainstorming in a GSS. It takes time and costs money. Issues such as
w hen to stop generating alternatives can be very important. Too many alternatives can be
detrimental to the process of decision making. A decisio n maker may suffer from information overload.
Generating alternatives is heavily dependent o n the availability and cost of information and requires expe rtise in the problem area. This is the least formal aspect of problem
solving. Alternatives can be generated and evaluated using heuristics. The generation of
alte rnatives fro m either individuals or groups can be supported by electronic brainstorming software in a Web-based GSS.
Note that the search for alternatives usually occurs after the criteria for evaluating the
alternatives are determined. This sequence can ease the search for alternatives and reduce
the effort involved in evaluating them, but identifying potential alternatives can sometimes
aid in identifying criteria.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
The outcome of every proposed alternative must be established. Depending on
whether the decision-making problem is classified as one of certainty, risk, or uncertainty,
different modeling approaches may be used (see Drummond, 2001; and Koller, 2000).
These are discussed in Chapter 9.
Measuring Outcomes
The value o f a n a lternative is evaluated in terms of goal attainme nt. Sometimes a n
outcome is expressed directly in terms of a goal. For example, profit is an outcome,
profit maximization is a goal, and both are expressed in dollar terms. An outcome such
as customer satisfactio n may be measured by the number of complaints, by the level
of loyalty to a product, or by ratings found through surveys. Ideally, a decision maker
would want to deal with a single goal, but in practice, it is not unusual to have multiple
goals (see Barba-Romero, 2001; and Koksalan and Zionts, 2001). When grou ps make
decisions, each group participant may h ave a diffe rent agenda . For example, executives
might want to maximize profit, marketing might want to maximize market penetration,
operations might want to minimize costs, and stockholders might want to maximize the
bo ttom line . Typically, these goals conflict, so special multiple-criteria methodologies
have been developed to handle this. One such method is the AHP. We will study AHP
in Chapter 9.
Risk
All decisions are made in an inherently unstable e nvironment. This is due to the many
unpredictable events in both the economic and physical environments. Some risk (measured as probability) may be due to internal organizatio nal events, such as a valued
employee quitting or becoming ill, w h ereas others may be due to natural disasters, such
as a hurricane. Aside fro m the human toll, one economic aspect of Hurricane Katrina was
that the price of a gallon of gasoline doubled overnight due to uncertainty in the port
capabilities, refining, and pipelines of the southe rn United States. What can a decisio n
maker do in the face of such instability?
In gen eral, people have a tendency to measure uncertainty and risk badly. Purdy
(2005) said that people tend to be overconfide nt and have an illusion of control in
decisio n making. The results of experiments by Adam Goodie at the University of
Georgia indicate that most people are overconfident most of the time (Goodie, 2004).
This may explain w hy people often feel that o ne more pull of a slot machine will
definitely p ay off.
However, methodologies for handling extreme uncertainty do exist. For example,
Yakov (2001) described a way to make good decisions based on very little information ,
using an information gap theory and methodology approach . Aside from estimating the
potential utility o r value of a particular decision's o utcome, the best decision makers are
capable of accurately estimating the risk associated with the outcomes that result from
making each decision. Thus, one impo rtant task of a decision maker is to attribute a level
of risk to the o utcome associated with each potential alternative being considered. Some
decisions may lead to unacceptable risks in terms of success and can therefore be discarded or discounted immediately.
In some cases, some decisions are assumed to be made under conditions of certainty simply because the e nvironment is assumed to be stable. Other decisions are
made unde r conditio ns of uncertainty, w here risk is unknown. Still, a good decision
maker can make working estimates of risk. Also, the p rocess of developing BI/DSS
involves learning more about the situatio n , w hich leads to a more accurate assessment
of the risks.
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Scenarios
A scenario is a statement of assumptio ns about the operating environment of a p articular system at a given time; that is, it is a narrative description of the decision-situation
setting. A scenario describes the decision and uncontrollable variables and parameters
for a specific modeling situation. It may also p rovide the p rocedures and constraints for
the modeling.
Scenarios originated in the theater, and the term was borrowed for war gaming and
large-scale simulations. Scenario planning and analysis is a DSS tool that can capture a
whole range of possibilities. A manager can constm ct a series of scenarios (i.e., w hat-if
cases), perform computerized analyses, and learn more about the system and decisionmaking problem w hile analyzing it. Ideally, the manager can identify an excellent, p ossibly
o ptimal, solution to the mode l of the problem.
Scenarios are especially helpful in simulations and what-if analyses. In both cases,
we change scenarios and examine the results. For example, we can change the anticipated
demand for hospitalization (an input variable for planning), thus creating a new scenario .
Then we can measure the anticipated cash flow of the hospital for each scenario .
Scenarios play an important role in decision making because they:
• Help identify opportunities a nd proble m areas
• Provide flexibility in planning
• Identify the leading edges of changes that management should monitor
• He lp validate major modeling assumptions
• Allow the decision maker to explore the behavior of a system through a model
• Help to check the sensitivity of proposed solutions to changes in the e nvironment,
as described by the scenario
Possible Scenarios
There may be thousands of possib le scenarios for every decision situation. However, the
following are especially useful in practice:
• The worst possible scenario
• The best possible scenario
• The most like ly scenario
• The average scenario
The scenario determines the context of the analysis to be performed .
Errors in Decision Making
The model is a critical component in the decisio n-making p rocess, but a decisio n maker
may make a number of errors in its development and use. Validating the model before it
is used is critical. Gathering the rig ht amount of information , with the right level of precision and accuracy, to incorporate into the decision-making p rocess is also critical. Sawyer
0999) described "the seven deadly sins of decision making, " most of which are behavior
o r informatio n rela ted .
SECTION 2.5 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Define optimization and contrast it with suboptimization.
2. Compare the normative and descriptive approaches to decision making.
3. Define rational decision making. What does it really mean to be a rational decision
maker?
4. Why do people exhibit bounded ratio nality when solving problems?
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
5. Define scenario. How is a scenario used in decision making?
6. Some "errors" in decision making can be attributed to the notion of decisio n making
from the gut. Explain w hat is meant by this and how such errors can happen.
2.6
DECISION MAKING: THE CHOICE PHASE
Choice is the critical act of decision making. The choice phase is the o ne in which the
actual decision and the commitment to follow a certain course of action are made . The
boundary between the design and choice phases is often unclear because certain activities can be performed during both of them and because the decision maker can return
frequently from cho ice activities to design activities (e.g., generate new alternatives w hile
performing an evaluatio n of existing ones). The cho ice phase includes the search for,
evaluation of, and recommendation of an appropriate solution to a model. A solution to a
model is a sp ecific set of values for the decision variables in a selected alternative. Choices
can be evaluated as to their viability and profitability.
Note that solving a model is not the same as solving the problem the model represents.
The solution to the model yields a recommended solution to the problem. The p roblem is
considered solved o nly if the recommended solution is su ccessfully implemented.
Solving a decision-making model involves searching for an appropriate course
of actio n. Search approaches include analytical techniques (i.e. , solving a formula),
algorithms (i.e. , step-by-step procedures), heuristics (i.e., rules of thumb), and blind
searches (i.e ., shooting in the dark, ideally in a logical way). These approaches are
examined in Chapter 9.
Each alternative must be evaluated. If an alternative has multiple goals, they must
all be examine d and balanced against each other. Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the robustness of any given alte rnative; slight changes in the parameters should
ideally lead to slight or no ch anges in the alte rnative chosen. What-if analysis is
used to explore majo r changes in the parameters. Goal seeking he lps a manager determine values of the decision variables to meet a specific objective. All this is discussed
in Chapter 9.
SECTION 2.6 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Explain the difference between a principle of choice and the actual choice phase of
decision making.
2. Why do some people claim that the choice phase is the point in time when a decisio n
is really made?
3. How can sensitivity analysis help in the choice phase?
2.7
DECISION MAKING: THE IMPLEMENTATION PHASE
In The Prince, Machiavelli astutely noted some 500 years ago that there was "nothing more
difficult to carry out, nor more doubtful of success, nor more dangerous to handle, than to
initiate a new o rder of things. " The implementation of a proposed solution to a problem is,
in effect, the initiatio n of a new order of things or the introduction of change. And change
must be managed. User expectations must be managed as part of change management.
The definition of implementation is somewhat complicated because implementation
is a lo ng, involved process w ith vague boundaries. Simplistically, the implementation
phase involves putting a recommended solution to work, not necessarily implementing
a computer system. Many generic implementatio n issues, such as resistance to change,
degree of suppo rt of top manageme nt, a nd user training, are important in dealing with
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
information system supported decision making. Indeed, many previous technologyrelated waves (e.g., business process reengineering (BPR), knowledge management,
etc.) have faced mixed results mainly because of change management challenges and
issues. Management of change is almost an entire discipline in itself, so we recogn ize its
impo rtance and en courage the readers to focus o n it independently. Implementation also
includes a thorough understanding of project management. Importance of project management goes far beyond analytics, so the last few years have w itnessed a major growth
in ce1tificatio n programs fo r project ma nagers. A very p opular certificatio n now is Project
Management Professional (PMP). See pmi.org for more details.
Implementation must also involve collecting and analyzing data to learn from the
previous decisions and improve the next decision. Although analysis of data is usually
conducted to identify the problem and/ o r the solution, analytics should also be employed
in the feedback process. This is especially true for any public policy decisions. We need
to be sure that the data being used for problem identification is valid. Sometimes people
find this out o nly afte r the implementation phase.
The decision-making process, though conducted by people, can be improved with
computer su pport, which is the subject of the next section.
SECTION 2. 7 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Define implementation.
2. How can DSS support the implementation of a decision?
2.8
HOW DECISIONS ARE SUPPORTED
In Chapter 1, we discussed the n eed for computerized decision support and briefly
described some decision aids. Here we relate specific technologies to the decisionmaking process (see Figure 2.2). Databases, data marts, and especially data ware h ou ses
are important technologies in supporting all phases of decisio n making. They provide
the data that drive decision making.
Support for the Intelligence Phase
The primary requirement of decision support for the intelligence phase is the ability to scan
external and internal information sources for opportunities and problems and to interpret
w hat the scanning discovers. Web tools and sources are extremely useful for environmental
Phase
:- ---.-~1__1n_t_e1_1ig_e_n_c_e_
\~ --.-~1__o_e_s_ig_n_ _
\~ --.-~1__c_h_o_ic_e_ _
1~{
II-
ANN
MIS
Data Mining, OLAP
ES, ERP
ESS, ES, SCM
CRM, ERP, KVS
Management
Science
ANN
ESS, ES
l---.-~1_,m_p_le_m_e_n_ta_t_io_n~I-{ KMS,
ERP
FIGURE 2.2
DSS Support.
DSS
ES
CRM
SCM
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
scanning. Web browsers provide useful front ends for a variety of tools, from OLAF to data
mining and data warehouses. Data sources can be internal or external. Internal sources may
be accessible via a corporate intranet. External sources are many and varied.
Decision support/ BI technologies can be very helpful. For example, a data warehouse can support the intelligence phase by continuously monitoring both internal and
external information, looking for early signs of problems and opportunities through
a Web-based enterprise information portal (also called a dashboard) . Similarly, (automatic)
data (and Web) mining (which may include expert systems [ES], CRM, genetic algorithms,
neural networks, and other analytics systems) and (manual) OLAP also support the intelligence phase by identifying relationships among activities and other factors. Geographic
information systems (GIS) can be utilized either as stand-alone systems or integrated with
these systems so that a decision maker can determine opportunities and problems in a
spatial sense. These relationships can be exploited for competitive advantage (e.g., CRM
identifies classes of customers to approach with specific products and services). A KMS
can be used to identify similar past situations and how they were handled. GSS can be
used to share information and for brainstorming. As seen in Chapter 14, even cell phone
and GPS data can be captured to create a micro-view of customers and their habits.
Another aspect of identifying internal problems and capabilities involves monitoring
the current status of operations. When something goes wrong, it can be identified quickly
and the problem can be solved. Tools such as business activity monitoring (BAM), business process management (BPM), and product life-cycle management (PLM) provide such
capability to decision makers. Both routine and ad hoc reports can aid in the intelligence
phase. For example, regular reports can be designed to assist in the problem-finding
activity by comparing expectations with current and projected performance. Web-based
OLAP tools are excellent at this task. So are visualization tools and electronic document
management systems.
Expert systems (ES), in contrast, can render advice regarding the nature of a problem, its classification, its seriousness, and the like. ES can advise on the suitability of a
solution approach and the likelihood of successfully solving the problem. One of the
primary areas of ES success is interpreting information and d iagnosing problems. This
capability can be exploited in the intelligence phase. Even intelligent agents can be used
to identify opportunities.
Much of the information used in seeking new opportunities is qualitative, or soft.
This indicates a high level of unstructuredness in the problems, thus making DSS quite
useful in the intelligence phase.
The Internet and advanced database technologies have created a glut of data and
information available to decision makers-so much that it can detract from the quality
and speed of decision making. It is important to recognize some issues in using data and
analytics tools for decision making. First, to paraphrase baseball great Vin Scully, "data
should be used the way a drunk uses a lamppost. For support, not for illumination." It
is especially true when the focus is on understanding the problem. We should recognize
that not all the data that may help understand the problem is available. To quote Einstein,
"Not everything that counts can be counted, and not everything that can be counted
counts." There might be other issues that have to be recognized as well.
Support for the Design Phase
The design phase involves generating alternative courses of action, discussing the criteria
for choices and their relative importance, and forecasting the future consequences of
using various alternatives. Several of these activities can use standard models provided by
a DSS (e.g., financial and forecasting models, available as applets). Alternatives for structured problems can be generated through the use of e ither standard or special models.
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
However, the generation of alternatives for complex problems requires expertise that can
be provided o nly by a human, brainstorming software, or an ES. OLAP and data mining
software are quite useful in identifying relatio nships that can be used in models. Most DSS
have quantitative analysis cap abilities, and an internal ES can assist with qualitative methods as well as with the expertise required in selecting quantitative analysis and forecasting
models. A KMS should certainly be consulted to determine whether such a problem has
been encountered before o r whether there are experts on hand who can provide quick
unde rstanding and answers. CRM syste ms, revenue management systems, ERP, and SCM
systems software are useful in that they provide models of business processes that can test
assumptio ns and scenarios. If a problem requires brainstorming to help identify important
issues and options, a GSS may prove helpful. Tools that provide cognitive mapping can
also help. Cohen et al. (2001) described several Web-based tools that provide decisio n
support, mainly in the design phase, by providing models and reporting of alternative
results. Each of the ir cases has saved millio ns of dollars annually by utilizing these tools.
Such DSS are helping engineers in product design as well as decision makers solving
business problems.
Support for the Choice Phase
In additio n to providing models that rapidly identify a best or good-enough alternative,
a DSS can support the choice phase through what-if and goal-seeking analyses. Different
scenarios can be tested for the selected option to reinforce the final decision. Again, a KMS
helps identify similar p ast experiences; CRM, ERP, and SCM systems are used to test the
impacts of decisio ns in establishing their value, leading to an intelligent choice. An ES can
be used to assess the desirability of certain solutions as well as to recommend an appropriate solution. If a group makes a decision, a GSS can provide support to lead to consensus.
Support for the Implementation Phase
This is w here "making the decision happ en " occurs. The DSS benefits p rovided during
imple me ntatio n may be as importa nt as or even more important than those in the earlier
phases. DSS can be used in implementation activities such as decision communication,
explanatio n, and justification .
Implementation-phase DSS benefits are partly due to the vividness and detail of
analyses and reports. For example , one chief executive officer (CEO) gives employees
and external parties n ot o nly the aggregate financial goals and cash needs for the near
term, but also the calculations, interme diate results, and statistics used in determining
the aggregate figures. In addition to communicating the financial goals unambiguously,
the CEO signals other messages. Employees know that the CEO has thought through the
assumptions behind the financial goals and is serious about their importance and attainability. Bankers and directors are shown that the CEO was personally involved in analyzing cash needs and is aware of and responsible for the implications of the fina ncing
requests prepared by the finance department. Each of these messages improves decisio n
implementatio n in some way.
As mentioned earlier, reporting systems and other tools variously labeled as BAM,
BPM, KMS, EIS, ERP, CRM, and SCM are all useful in tracking how well an implementation
is working. GSS is useful for a team to collaborate in establishing implementation effectiveness. For example, a decisio n might be made to get rid of unprofitable customers. An
effective CRM can identify classes of customers to get rid of, identify the impact of doing
so, and then verify that it really worked that way.
All phases of the decision-making process can be supported by improved communication through collaborative computing via GSS and KMS. Computerized systems can facilitate
communication by helping people explain and justify their suggestio ns and opinions.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Decision implementation can also be supported by ES. An ES can be used as an advisory system regarding implementation problems (such as handling resistance to change).
Finally, an ES can provide training that may smooth the course of implementation.
Impacts along the value chain, though reported by an EIS through a Web-based
enterprise information portal, are typically identified by BAM, BPM, SCM, and ERP systems.
CRM systems report and update internal records, based on the impacts of the implementation. These inputs are then used to identify new problems and opportunities- a return to
the intelligence phase.
SECTION 2.8 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Describe how DSS/BI technologies and tools can aid in each phase of decision making.
2. Describe how new technologies can provide decision-making support.
Now that we have studied how technology can assist in decision making, we study some
details of decision support systems (DSS) in the next two sections.
2.9
DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS: CAPABILITIES
The early definitions of a DSS identified it as a system intended to support managerial
decision makers in semistructured and unstructured decision situations. DSS were meant
to be adjuncts to decision makers, extending their capabilities but not replacing their judgment. They were aimed at decisions that required judgment or at decisions that could not
be completely supported by algorithms. Not specifically stated but implied in the early
definitions was the notion that the system would be computer based, would operate interactively online, and preferably would have graphical output capabilities, now simplified
via browsers and mobile devices.
A DSS Application
A DSS is typically built to support the solution of a certain problem or to evaluate an
opportunity. This is a key difference between DSS and BI applications. In a very strict
sense, business intelligence (BI) systems monitor situations and identify problems and/
or opportunities, using analytic methods. Reporting plays a major role in BI; the user
generally must identify whether a particular situation warrants attention, and then analytical methods can be applied. Again, although models and data access (generally through
a data warehouse) are included in BI, DSS typically have their own databases and are
developed to solve a specific problem or set of problems. They are therefore called
DSS applications.
Formally, a DSS is an approach (or methodology) for supporting decision making.
It uses an interactive, flexible, adaptable computer-based information system (CBIS)
especia lly developed for supporting the solution to a specific unstructured management problem. It uses data, provides an easy user interface, and can incorporate the
decision maker's own insights. In addition, a DSS includes models and is developed
(possibly by end users) through an interactive and iterative process. It can support a ll
phases of decision making and may include a knowledge component. Finally, a DSS
can be used by a single user or can be Web based for use by many people at several
locations.
Because there is no consensus on exactly what a DSS is, there is obviously no agreement on the standard characteristics and capabilities of DSS. The capabilities in Figure 2.3
constitute an ideal set, some members of which are described in the definitions of DSS
and illustrated in the application cases.
The key characteristics and capabilities of DSS (as shown in Figure 2.3) are:
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
14
1
Stand-alone,
integration, and
Web-based
Semistructured
or unstructured
problems
13
2
Support
managers at
all levels
3
Data access
Support
individuals
and groups
12
Modeling
and analysis
Interdependent
or sequential
decisions
11
Ease of
development
by end users
Support
intelligence
design, choice, and
implementation
10
the process
Support variety
of decision
processes and styles
9
Effectiveness
and efficiency
FIGURE 2.3
8
Interactive ,
ease of use
Adaptable
and flexible
Key Characteristics and Capabilities of DSS.
1. Support for decision makers, mainly in semistructured and unstructured situations,
by bringing together human judgment and computerized information. Such problems cannot be solved (or cannot be solved conveniently) by other computerized
systems or through use of standard quantitative methods or tools. Generally , these
problems gain structure as the DSS is developed. Even some structured problems
have been solved by DSS.
2 . Support for a ll managerial levels, ranging from top executives to line managers.
3. Support for individuals as well as groups. Less-structured problems often require the
involvement of individuals from d ifferent departments and organizational levels or
even from different o rganizations. DSS support virtual teams through collaborative
Web tools. DSS have been developed to support individual and group work, as well
as to support individual decision making and groups of decision makers working
somewhat independently.
4. Support for interdependent and/ or sequential decisions. The decisio ns may be made
once, several times, or repeatedly .
5. Support in all phases of the decision-making process: intelligence, design, choice,
and impleme ntation.
6. Support for a variety of decision-making processes and styles.
7. The decision maker should be reactive, able to confront changing conditions quickly,
and able to adapt the DSS to meet these changes. DSS are flexible, so users can add,
delete, combine, change, or rearrange basic elements. They are also flexible in that
they can be readily modified to solve other, similar problems.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
8 . User-friendliness, strong graphical capabilities, and a natural language interactive
human-machine interface can greatly increase the effectiveness of DSS. Most new
DSS applications use Web-based interfaces or mobile platform interfaces.
9 . Improvement of the effectiveness of decision making (e.g. , accuracy, timeliness,
quality) rather than its efficie ncy (e.g., the cost of making decisions). When DSS are
deployed , decision making often takes longer, but the decisions are better.
10. The decision maker has complete control over all steps of the decisio n-making
process in solving a proble m. A DSS specifically aims to support, not to replace, the
decision maker.
11. End users are able to develop and modify simple systems by themselves. Larger
systems can be built with assistance from informatio n system (IS) specialists.
Spreadsheet p ackages have been utilized in developing simpler systems. OLAP and
data mining software, in conjunctio n w ith data warehouses, enable users to build
fairly large, complex DSS.
12. Models are generally utilized to analyze decision-making situations. The mode ling capability enables experimentation with different strategies under diffe rent
configurations.
13. Access is provided to a variety of data sources, formats, and types, including GIS,
multimedia, a nd object-orie nted data.
14. The DSS can be employed as a stand-alone tool used by an individual decision maker
in one location or distributed throughout an organization and in several organizations
along the supply chain. It can be integrated with other DSS and/ or applications, and it
can be distributed internally and externally, using networking and Web technologies.
These key DSS characteristics and cap abilities allow decision makers to make
better, more consistent decisions in a timely manner, and they are provided by the major
DSS components, w hich we will describe after discussing various ways of classifying
DSS (next) .
SECTION 2.9 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. List the key characte ristics and capabilities of DSS.
2. Describe how providing support to a workgroup is different from providing support
to group work. Explain why it is impo rtant to differentiate these concepts.
3. What kinds of DSS can end users develop in spreadsheets?
4. Why is it so important to include a model in a DSS?
2.10
DSS CLASSIFICATIONS
DSS applications have been classified in several different ways (see Power, 2002; Power
and Sharda, 2009). The design process, as well as the operatio n and implementatio n of DSS,
depends in many cases on the type of DSS involved. However, remember that not every
DSS fits neatly into one category. Most fit into the classification provided by the Association
for Information Systems Special Interest Group on Decision Support Systems (AIS SIGDSS).
We discuss this classification but also point out a few other attempts at classifying DSS.
The AIS SIGDSS Classification for DSS
The AIS SIGDSS (ais.site-ym.com/group/SIGDSS) h as adopted a concise classification
scheme for DSS that was proposed by Power (2002). It includes the following categories:
• Communicatio ns-driven and group DSS (GSS)
• Data-driven DSS
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
• Document-driven DSS
• Knowledge-driven DSS, data mining, and management ES applications
• Model-driven DSS
There may also be hybrids that combine two or more categories. These are called
compound DSS. We discuss the major categories next.
Communications-driven and group DSS
(GSS) include DSS that use computer, collaboration, and communication technologies
to support groups in tasks that may or may not include decision making. Essentially,
all DSS that support any kind of group work fall into this category. They include
those that support meetings, design collaboration, and even supply chain management.
Knowledge management systems (KMS) that are developed around communities that
practice collaborative work also fall into this category. We discuss these in more detail
in later chapters.
COMMUNICATIONS-DRIVEN AND GROUP DSS
DATA-DRIVEN DSS Data-driven DSS are primarily involved with data and processing
them into information and presenting the information to a decision maker. Many DSS
developed in OLAP and reporting analytics software systems fall into this category. There
is minimal emphasis on the use of mathematical models.
In this type of DSS, the database organization, often in a data warehouse, plays
a major role in the DSS structure. Early generations of database-oriented DSS mainly
used the relational database configuration. The information handled by relational
databases tends to be voluminous, descriptive, and rigidly structured. A databaseoriented DSS features strong report generation and query capabilities. Indeed, this
is primarily the current application of the tools marked under the BI umbrella or
under the label of reporting/business analytics. The chapters on data warehousing and
business performance management (BPM) describe several examples of this category
of DSS.
DOCUMENT-DRIVEN DSS Document-driven DSS rely on knowledge coding, analysis,
search, and retrieval for decision support. They essentially include all DSS that are text
based. Most KMS fall into this category. These DSS also have minimal emphasis on utilizing mathematical models. For example , a system that we built for the U.S. Army's Defense
Ammunitions Center falls in this catego1y. The main objective of document-driven DSS is
to provide support for decision making using documents in various forms: oral, written,
and multimedia.
KNOWLEDGE-DRIVEN DSS, DATA MINING, AND MANAGEMENT EXPERT SYSTEMS
APPLICATIONS These DSS involve the application of knowledge technologies to address
specific decision support needs. Essentially, all artificial intelligence-based DSS fall into
this category. When symbolic storage is utilized in a DSS, it is generally in this category.
ANN and ES are included here. Because the benefits of these intelligent DSS or knowledgebased DSS can be large, organizations have invested in them. These DSS are utilized in the
creation of automated decision-making systems, as described in Chapter 12. The basic idea
is that rules are used to automate the decision-making process. These mies are basically
either an ES or structured like one. This is important when decisions must be made quickly,
as in many e-commerce situations.
The major emphases of DSS that are primarily developed around
one or more (large-scale/ complex) optimization or simulation models typically include
significant activities in model formulation, model maintenance, model management
MODEL-DRIVEN DSS
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
in distributed computing environments, and what-if analyses. Many large-scale applications fall into this category. Notable examples include those used by Procter & Gamble
(Farasyn et al. , 2008), HP (Olavson and Fry, 2008), and many others.
The focus of such systems is on using the model(s) to optimize one or more objectives (e.g., profit). The most common end-user tool for DSS development is Microsoft
Excel. Excel includes dozens of statistical packages, a linear programming package
(Solver), and many financial and management science models. We will study these in
more detail in Chapter 9. These DSS typically can be grouped under the new label of
prescriptive analytics.
A compound, or hybrid, DSS includes two or more of the major categories described earlier. Often, an ES can benefit by utilizing some optimization, and
clearly a data-driven DSS can feed a large-scale optimization model. Sometimes documents are critical in understanding how to interpret the results of visualizing data from
a data-driven DSS.
An emerging example of a compound DSS is a product offered by WolframAlpha
(wolframalpha.com). It compiles knowledge from outside databases, models, algorithms, documents, and so on to provide answers to specific questions. For example, it
can find and analyze current data for a stock and compare it w ith other stocks. It can
also tell you how many calories you will burn when performing a specific exercise or
the side effects of a particular medicine. Although it is in early stages as a collection of
knowledge components from many different areas, it is a good example of a compound
DSS in getting its knowledge from many diverse sources and attempting to synthesize it.
COMPOUND DSS
Other DSS Categories
Many other proposals have been made to classify DSS. Perhaps the first formal attempt
was by Alter (1980). Several other important categories of DSS include (1) institutional
and ad hoc DSS; (2) personal, group, and organizational support; (3) individual support
system versus GSS; and (4) custom-made systems versus ready-made systems. We discuss
some of these next.
INSTITUTIONAL AND AD HOC DSS Institutional DSS (see Donovan and Madnick, 1977)
deal with decisions of a recurring nature. A typical example is a portfolio management
system (PMS), which has been used by several large banks for supporting investment
decisions. An institutionalized DSS can be developed and refined as it evolves over a
number of years, because the DSS is used repeatedly to solve identical or similar problems. It is important to remember that an institutional DSS may not be used by everyone
in an organization; it is the recurring nature of the decision-making problem that determines whether a DSS is institutional versus ad hoc.
Ad hoc DSS deal w ith specific problems that are usually neither anticipated nor recurring. Ad hoc decisions often involve strategic planning issues and sometimes management
control problems. Justifying a DSS that w ill be used only once or twice is a major issue
in DSS development. Countless ad hoc DSS applications have evolved into institutional
DSS. Either the problem recurs and the system is reused or others in the organization have
similar needs that can be handled by the formerly ad hoc DSS.
Custom-Made Systems Versus Ready-Made Systems
Many DSS are custom made for individual users and organizations. However, a comparable problem may exist in similar organizations. For example, hospitals, banks,
and universities share many similar problems. Similarly, certain nonroutine problems in
a functional area (e.g. , finance, accounting) can repeat themselves in the same functional
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
area of different areas or organizations. Therefore, it makes sense to build generic DSS
that can be used (sometimes with modifications) in several organizations. Such DSS
are called ready-made and are sold by various vendors (e.g., Cognos, MicroStrategy,
Teradata). Essentially, the database, models, interface, and other support features are
built in: Just add an organization's data and logo. The major OLAP and analytics vendors
provide DSS templates for a variety of functional areas, including finance, real estate,
marketing, and accounting. The number of ready-made DSS continues to increase
because of their flexibility and low cost. They are typically developed using Internet
technologies for database access and communications, and Web browsers for interfaces.
They also readily incorporate OLAP and other easy-to-use DSS generators.
One complication in terminology results when an organization develops an
institutional system but, because of its structure, uses it in an ad hoc manner. An organization can build a large data warehouse but then use OLAP tools to que1y it and perform
ad hoc analysis to solve nonrecurring problems. The DSS exhibits the traits of ad hoc
and institutional systems and also of custom and ready-made systems. Several ERP, CRM,
knowledge management (KM), and SCM companies offer DSS applications online. These
kinds of systems can be viewed as ready-made, although typically they require modifications (sometimes major) before they can be used effectively.
SECTION 2 . 10 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. List the DSS classifications of the AIS SIGDSS.
2. Define document-driven DSS.
3. List the capabilities of institutional DSS and ad hoc DSS.
4. Define the term ready-made DSS.
2.11
COMPONENTS OF DECISION SUPPORT SYSTEMS
A DSS application can be composed of a data management subsystem, a model management subsystem, a user interface subsystem, and a knowledge-based management
subsystem. We show these in Figure 2.4.
Data: external
and/ or internal
Internet,
intranet,
extranet
Other
computer-based
systems
~/,
§/
§
Data
Model
management
Knowledge-based
subsystems
User
interface
t
Organizational
Knowledge Base
FIGURE 2.4
Schematic View of DSS.
Manager [user)
External
models
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Internal Data Sources
Finance
Production
sources
Private,
personal
data
Organizational
knowledge base
Query
facility
Decision
support
~-d-a-ta_b_as_e_~
Database
management
system
Data
directory
FIGURE 2.5
• Retrieval
• Inquiry
• Update
• Report .
generation
• Delete
Cor porate
data
warehouse
Interface
management
Model
management
Knowledge-based
subsystem
Structure of the Data Management Subsystem.
The Data Management Subsystem
The data management subsystem includes a database that contains relevant data for
the situation and is managed by software called the database management system
(DBMS).2 The data management subsystem can be interconnected with the corporate
data warehouse, a repository for corporate relevant decision-making data. Usually, the
data are stored or accessed via a database Web server. The data management subsystem
is composed of the following elements:
• DSS database
• Database management system
• Data directory
• Query facility
These e lements are shown schematically in Figure 2.5 (in the shaded area) . The figure
also shows the interaction of the data management subsystem with the other parts of the
DSS, as well as its interaction with several data sources. Many of the BI or descriptive
analytics applications derive their strength from the data management side of the subsystems. Application Case 2.2 provides an example of a DSS that focuses on data.
The Model Management Subsystem
The model management subsystem is the component that includes financial, statistical,
management science, or other quantitative models that provide the system's analytical
capabilities and appropriate software management. Modeling languages for building custom models are also included. This software is often called a model base management
'DBMS is used as both singular and plural (system and systems), as are many other acronyms in this text.
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Application Case 2.2
Station Casinos Wins by Building Customer Relationships Using Its Data
Station Casinos is a major provider of gaming for
Las Vegas-area residents. It owns about 20 properties in Nevada and other states, employs over 12,000
people, and has revenue of over $1 billion.
Station Casinos wanted to develop an in-depth
view of each customer/guest who visited Casino
Station propetties. This would permit them to better understand customer trends as well as enhance
their one-to-one marketing for each guest. The company employed the Teradata warehouse to develop
the "Total Guest Worth" solution. The project used
used Aprimo Relationship Manager, Informatica, and
Cognos to capture, analyze, and segment customers.
Almost 500 different data sources were integrated to
develop the full view of a customer. As a result, the
company was able to realize the following benefits:
• Customer segments were expanded from 14
(originally) to 160 segments so as to be able to
target more specific promotions to each segment.
• A 4 percent to 6 percent increase in monthly
slot profit.
• Slot promotion costs were reduced by $1 million
(from $13 million per month) by better targeting
the customer segments.
• A 14 percent improvement in guest retention.
• Increased new-member acquisition by 160
percent.
• Reduction in data error rates from as high as
80 percent to less than 1 percent.
• Reduced the time to analyze a campaign's effectiveness from almost 2 weeks to just a few hours.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why is this decision support system classified as
a data-focused DSS?
2. What were some of the benefits from implementing this solution?
Source: Teradata.com, "No Limits: Station Casinos Breaks the
Mold on Customer Re lationships," teradata.com/case-studies/
Station-Casinos-No-Limits-Station-Casinos-Brea1':s-the-Moldon-Customer-Relationships-Executive-Summary-eb64 IO
(accessed February 2013).
system (MBMS). This component can be connected to corporate or external storage
of models. Model solution methods and management systems are implemented in Web
development systems (such as Java) to run on application servers. The model management subsystem of a DSS is composed of the following elements:
• Model base
• MBMS
• Modeling language
• Model directory
• Model execution, integration , and command processor
These elements and their interfaces with other DSS components are shown in Figure 2.6.
At a higher level than building blocks, it is important to consider the different types of
models and solutio n methods needed in the DSS. Often at the start of development, there is
some sense of the model types to be incorporated, but this may change as more is learned
about the decision problem. Some DSS development systems include a wide variety of components (e.g., Analytica from Lumina Decision Systems), whereas others have a single one
(e.g., Lindo). Often, the results of one type of model component (e.g., forecasting) are used
as input to another (e.g., production scheduling). In some cases, a modeling language is a
component that generates input to a solver, whereas in other cases, the two are combined.
Because DSS deal with semistructured or unstructured problems, it is often necessary
to customize models, using programming tools and languages. Some examples of these are
.NET Framework languages, C++, and Java. OLAP software may also be used to work with
models in data analysis. Even languages for simulation such as Arena and statistical packages such as those of SPSS offer modeling tools developed through the use of a proprietary
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
Models (Model Base)
• Strategic, tactical, operational
• Statistical, financial, marketing,
management science,
accounting, engineering, etc.
• Model building blocks
Model
Directory
Model Base Management
• Modeling commands: creation
• Maintenance: update
• Database interface
• Modeling language
Data
management
FIGURE 2.6
Interface
management
_.
Model execution,
integration, and
command processor
Knowledge-based
subsystem
Structure of the Model Management Subsystem.
programming language. For small and medium-sized DSS or for less complex ones, a spreadsheet (e.g., Excel) is usually used. We will use Excel for many key examples in this book.
Application Case 2.3 describes a spreadsheet-based DSS. However, using a spreadsheet
for modeling a problem of any significant size presents problems with documentation and
error diagnosis. It is very difficult to determine or understand nested, complex relationships
in spreadsheets created by someone else. This makes it difficult to modify a model built by
someone else. A related issue is the increased likelihood of errors creeping into the formulas. With all the equations appearing in the form of cell references, it is challenging to figure
out where an error might be. These issues were addressed in an early generation of DSS
development software that was available on mainframe computers in the 1980s. One such
product was called Interactive Financial Planning System (IFPS). Its developer, Dr. Gerald
Wagner, then released a desktop software called Planners Lab. Planners Lab includes the
following components: (1) an easy-to-use algebraically oriented model-building language
and (2) an easy-to-use state-of-the-art option for visualizing model output, such as answers
to what-if and goal seek questions to analyze results of changes in assumptions. The combination of these components enables business managers and analysts to build, review, and
challenge the assumptions that underlie decision-making scenarios.
Planners Lab makes it possible for the decision makers to "play" with assumptions
to reflect alternative views of the future. Every Planners Lab model is an assemblage of
assumptions about the future. Assumptions may come from databases of historical performance, market research, and the decision makers' minds, to name a few sources. Most
assumptions about the future come from the decision makers' accumulated experiences
in the form of opinions.
The resulting collection of equations is a Planners Lab model that tells a readable
story for a particular scenario. Planners Lab lets decision makers describe their plans
in their own words and with their own assumptions. The product's raison d'etre is that
a simulator should facilitate a conversation with the decision maker in the process of
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
Application Case 2.3
SNAP DSS Helps OneNet Make Telecommunications Rate Decisions
Telecommunications network services to educational
institutions and government entities are typically
provided by a mix of private and public organizations. Many states in the United States have one or
more state agencies that are responsible for providing
network services to schools, colleges, and other state
agencies. One example of such an agency is OneNet
in Oklahoma. OneNet is a division of the Oklahoma
State Regents for Higher Education and operated in
cooperation with the Office of State Finance.
Usually agencies such as OneNet operate as
an enterprise-type fund. They must recover their
costs through billing their clients and/or by justifying
appropriations directly from the state legislatures.
This cost recovery should occur through a pricing
mechanism that is efficient, simple to implement,
and equitable. This pricing model typically needs to
recognize many factors: convergence of voice, data,
and video traffic on the same infrastructure; diversity of user base in terms of educational institutions,
state agencies, and so on; diversity of applications
in use by state clients, from e-mail to videoconferences, IP telephoning, and distance learning; recovery of current costs, as well as planning for upgrades
and future developments; and leverage of the shared
infrastructure to enable further economic development and collaborative work across the state that
leads to innovative uses of OneNet.
These considerations led to the development of
a spreadsheet-based model. The system, SNAP-DSS,
or Service Network Application and Pricing (SNAP)based DSS, was developed in Microsoft Excel 2007
and used the VBA programming language.
The SNAP-DSS offers OneNet the ability to select
the rate card options that best fit the preferred pricing strategies by providing a real-time, user-friendly,
graphical user interface (GUI). In addition, the SNAPDSS not only illustrates the influence of the changes in
the pricing factors on each rate card option, but also
allows the user to analyze various rate card options
in different scenarios using different parameters. This
model has been used by OneNet financial planners to
gain insights into their customers and analyze many
what-if scenarios of different rate plan options.
Source: Based on J. Chongwatpol and R. Sharda, "SNAP: A DSS
to Analyze Network Service Pricing for State Netwo rks," Decision
Support Systems, Vol. 50, No. 1, December 2010, p p. 347-359.
describing business assumptions. All assumptions are described in English equations (or
the user's native language).
The best way to learn how to use Planners Lab is to launch the software and follow
the tutorials. The software can be downloaded at plannerslab.com.
The User Interface Subsystem
The user communicates with and commands the DSS through the user interface subsystem. The user is considered part of the system. Researchers assert that some of the
unique contributio ns of DSS are derived from the intensive interaction between the
computer and the decision maker. The Web browser provides a familiar, consistent
graphical user interface (GUI) structure for most DSS. For locally used DSS, a spreadsheet also provides a familiar user interface. A difficult user interface is one of the
major reasons managers do not use computers and quantitative analyses as much as
they could, given the availability of these technologies. The Web browser has been
recognized as an effective DSS GUI because it is flexible, user friendly, and a gateway
to almost all sources of necessary information and data. Essentially, Web browsers h ave
led to the development of portals and dashboards, which front end many DSS.
Explosive growth in portable devices including smartphones and tablets has changed
the DSS user interfaces as well. These devices allow either handwritten input or typed input
from inte rnal or external keyboards. Some DSS user interfaces utilize natural-language input
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
(i.e., text in a human language) so that the users can easily express themselves in a meaningful way. Because of the fuzzy nature of human language, it is fairly difficult to develop
software to interpret it. However, these packages increase in accuracy every year, and they
will ultimately lead to accurate input, output, and langu age translators.
Cell phone inputs through SMS are becoming mo re common for at least some consumer DSS-type applications. Fo r example, one can send an SMS request for search on
any topic to GOOGL (46645) . It is most useful in locating nearby businesses, addresses,
o r phone numbers, but it can also be used for many other decisio n support tasks. For
example, users can find definitions of words by entering the word "define" followed by a
word, such as "define extenuate." Some of the other capabilities include:
• Translatio ns: "Translate thanks in Sp anish ."
• Price lookups: "Price 32GB iPho ne."
• Calculator: Although you would probably just want to use your phone's built-in
calculator function , you can send a math expression as an SMS for an answer.
• Currency conversions: "10 usd in e uros."
• Sports scores and game times: Just enter the name of a team ("NYC Giants"), and Google
SMS will send the most recent game's score and the date and time of the next match.
This typ e of SMS-based search capability is also available for other search engines, including Yahoo! and Microsoft's new search engine Bing.
With the eme rgence of smartphon es su ch as Apple 's iPho ne and Android smartphones fro m ma ny vendors, many companies are developing applications (commonly
called apps) to provide purchasing-decision support. For example, Amazon.corn's app
allows a user to take a picture of any item in a store (or wh erever) and send it to Amazon.
com. Amazon.corn's graphics-understanding a lgorithm tries to match the image to a real
product in its databases and sends the user a page similar to Amazon.corn's product
info pages, allowing users to perform price comparisons in real time. Thousands of
othe r apps have been developed that provide consumers support for decision making
on finding and selecting stores/ restaurants/ service providers on the basis of location ,
recommendatio ns from o thers, and especially fro m your own social circles.
Voice input for these devices and PCs is common and fairly accurate (but not perfect). When voice input with accompanying speech-recognition software (and readily
available text-to-speech software) is used, verbal instructions w ith accompanied actions
and outputs can be invoked. These are readily available for DSS and are incorporated into
the portable devices described earlier. An example of voice inputs that can be used for
a gene ral-purpose DSS is Apple's Siri applicatio n and Google 's Google Now service. For
example, a user can give her zip code and say "pizza delivery." These devices provide the
search results and can even place a call to a business.
Recent efforts in business process management (BPM) have led to inputs directly
from physical devices for analysis via DSS. For example, radio-frequency identification
(RFID) chips can record data fro m sen sors in railcars or in-process products in a factory.
Data from these sensors (e.g., recording an ite m's status) can be dow nloaded at key locatio ns and immediately transmitted to a database or data warehouse, w here they can be
analyzed and decisions can be made concerning the status of the ite ms being mo nitored.
Walmart and Best Buy are developing this technology in their SCM, and such sensor
networks are also being used effectively by o ther firms.
The Knowledge-Based Management Subsystem
The knowledge-based management subsystem can support any of the other subsystems or
act as an independent component. It provides intellige nce to augment the decision maker's own. It can be interconnected with the organization's knowledge repository (part of
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
a knowledge management system [KMS]), which is sometimes called the organizational
knowledge base. Knowledge may be provided via Web se1vers. Many artificial intelligence
methods have been implemented in Web development systems such as Java and are easy
to integrate into the other DSS components. One of the most widely publicized knowledgebased DSS is IBM's Watson computer system. It is described in Application Case 2.4.
We conclude the sections on the three major DSS components with information
on some recent technology and methodology developments that affect DSS and de cisio n making. Technology Insights 2.2 summarizes some emerging developments in user
Application Case 2.4
From a Game Winner to a Doctor!
The television show Jeopardy! inspired an IBM
research team to build a supercomputer named
Watson that successfully took on the challenge of
playing Jeopardy! and beat the other human competitors. Since then , Watson has evolved into a
question-answering computing platform that is now
being used commercially in the medical field and
is expected to find its use in many othe r areas.
Watson is a cognitive system built on clusters of powerful processors supported by IBM's
DeepQA® software. Watson employs a combination of techniques like natural-language processing,
hypo thesis generation and evaluatio n , and evidencebased learning to overcome the constraints imposed
by programmatic computing. This enables Watson
to work on massive amounts of real-world, unstructured Big Data efficie ntly.
In the medical field, it is estimated that the
amount of medical information doubles every
5 years. This massive growth limits a physician's
decision-making ability in diagnosis and treatment of
illness using an evidence-based approach. With the
advancements being made in the medical field every
day, physicians do not have enough time to read
eve1y journal that can help them in keeping up-todate with the latest advancements. Patient histories
and electronic medical records contain lots of data. If
this info rmatio n can be analyzed in com bination with
vast amounts of existing medical know ledge, many
useful clues can be provided to the physicians to
help them ide ntify diagnostic and treatment options.
Watson, dubbed Dr. Watson, w ith its advanced
machine learning capabilities, now finds a new role
as a computer companion that assists physicians by
providing relevant real-time information for critical
decision making in choosing the right diagnostic and
treatment procedures. (Also see the opening vignette
for Chapter 7.)
Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center
(MSKCC), New York, and WellPoint, a major insurance provider, have begun using Watson as a treatment advisor in oncology diagnosis. Watson learned
the process of diagnosis and treatment through its
natural-language processing capabilities, which enabled it to leverage the unstructured data with an enormous amount of clinical exp ertise data, molecular
and genomic data from existing cancer case histories, journal articles, physicians' notes, and guidelines
and best practices from the National Comprehensive
Cancer Network. It was then trained by oncologists to
apply the knowledge gained in comparing an individu al patient's medical information against a w ide variety of treatment guidelines, published research, and
o ther insights to provide individualized, confidencescored recommendatio ns to the physicians.
At MSKCC, Watson facilitates evidence-based
support for every suggestion it makes while analyzing an individual case by bringing out the facts from
medical literature that point to a particular suggestion. It also provides a platform for the physicians to
look at the case from multiple directions by doing further analysis relevant to the individual case. Its voice
recognition capabilities allow physicians to speak to
Watson, enabling it to be a perfect assistant that he lps
physicians in critical evidence-based decision making.
WellPoint also trained Watson w ith a vast history of medical cases and now relies on Watson's
hypothesis generation and evidence-based learning
to generate recommendations in providing approval
for medical treatments based on the clinical and
patient data. Watson also assists the insurance providers in detecting fraudulent claims and protecting
physicians from malpractice claims.
Watson provides an excellent example of
a knowledge-based DSS that employs multiple
advanced technologies.
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What is a cognitive system? How can it assist in
real-time decision making'
2. What is evide nce-based decision making?
3. What is the role played by Watson in the
discussion?
4. Does Watson eliminate the need for human decisio n making?
What We Can Learn from This Application
Case
Advancements in technology now enable the building of powerful, cognitive computing platforms combined with complex analytics. These systems are
impacting the decision-making process radically by
shifting them from an opinion-based process to a
more real-time, evidence-based process, thereby turning available information intelligence into actio nable
wisdom that can be readily employed across many
industrial secto rs.
Sources, lbm.com, "IBM Watson: Ushering In a New Era of
Computing," www-03.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson (accessed
February 2013); lbm.com, "IBM Watson Helps Fight Cancer with
Evidence-Based Diagnosis and Treatment Suggestions," www03.ibm.com/innovation/us/watson/pdf/MSK_ Case_Study_
IMC14794.pdf (accessed February 2013); lbm.com, "IBM Watson
Enables More Effective Healthcare Preapproval Decisions Using
Evidence-Based Learning," www-03.ibm.com/innovation/us/
watson/pdf/WellPoint_Case_Study_IMCl4 792.pdf (accessed
February 2013).
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 2.2
Next Generation of Input Devices
The last few years have seen exciting developments in user interfaces. Perhaps the most commo n example of the new user interfaces is the iPhone's multi-touch interface that allows a user
to zoom, pan, and scroll through a screen just with the use of a finger. The success of iPhone has
spawned developme nts of similar user interfaces from many other providers including Blackberry,
HTC, LG, Motorola (a part of Google), Microsoft, Nokia, Samsung, and others. Mobile platform
has become the major access mechanism for all decision support applications.
In the last few years, gaming devices have evolved significantly to be able to receive and
process gesture-based inputs. In 2007, Nintendo introduced the Wii game platform, which is
able to process mo tio ns and gestures. Microsoft's Kinect is able to recognize image movements
and use that to discern inputs. The next generation of these technologies is in the form of
mind-reading p latforms. A company called Emotiv (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emotiv) made
big news in early 2008 w ith a promise to deliver a game controller that a user would be able
to control by thinking about it. These technologies are to be based on electroencephalography (EEG), the technique of reading a nd processing the electrical activity at the scalp level
as a result of specific thoughts in the brain. The technical details are available on Wikipedia
(en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Electroencephalography) and the Web. Although EEG has not
yet been known to be used as a DSS user inte rface (at least to the autho rs), its potential is
significant for many othe r DSS-type applications. Many other companies are developing similar
technologies.
It is also possible to speculate on other developments on the horizon. One major growth
a rea is likely to be in wearable devices. Google 's wearable glasses that are labeled "augmented
reality" glasses w ill likely emerge as a new user interface for decision suppo rt in both consumer
a nd corporate decisio n settings. Similarly, Apple is supposed to be working on iOS-based wristwatch-type computers. These devices will significantly impact how we interact with a system and
use the system for decision support. So it is a safe bet that user interfaces are going to change
significantly in the next few years. Their first use w ill probably be in gaming and consu mer
applicatio ns, but the business and DSS applicatio ns won't be far behind.
Sources, Various Wikipedia sites and the company Web sites provided in the feature.
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Pan I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
interfaces. Many developments in DSS components are the result of new developments
in hardware and software compute r technology, data wareh ousing, data mining, OLAP,
Web technologies, integration of technologies, and DSS application to various an d new
functional areas. There is also a clear link between hardware and software capabilities
and improvements in DSS. Hardware continues to shrink in size while increasing in speed
and other capabilities. The sizes of databases and data warehouses have increased dramatically . Data warehouses now provide hundreds of petabytes of sales data for retail
o rganizations and content for majo r news networks.
We expect to see more seamless integration of DSS components as they adopt Web
technologies, especially XML. These Web-based technologies have become the center of
activity in developing DSS. Web-based DSS have reduced technological barriers and have
made it easier and less costly to make decision-relevant information and model-driven
DSS available to managers and staff users in geographically distributed locations, especially through mobile devices.
DSS are becoming mo re embedded in other systems. Similarly, a major area to expect
improvements in DSS is in GSS in supporting collaboration at the enterprise level. This is
true even in the educational arena. Almost every new area of information systems involves
some level of decision-making support. Thus, DSS, either directly or indirectly, has impacts
o n CRM, SCM, ERP, KM, PLM, BAM, BPM, and other EIS. As these systems evolve, the
active decision-making component that utilizes mathematical, statistical, or even descriptive
models increases in size and capability, although it may be buried deep within the system.
Finally, different typ es of DSS components are being integrated more frequently. For
example, GIS are readily integrated w ith other, more traditional, DSS compo nents and
tools for improved decision making.
By definition, a DSS must include the three major compone nts-DBMS, MBMS, and
user interface . The knowledge-based management subsystem is optio nal, but it can provide many benefits by providing intelligence in and to the three majo r components. As in
any other MIS, the user may be considered a component of DSS.
Chapter Highlights
• Managerial decision making is synonymous with
the w hole process of management.
• Human decision styles need to be recognized in
designing systems.
• Individual and group decision making can both
be supported by systems.
• Problem solving is also opp ortunity evaluation.
• A model is a simplified representatio n or abstraction of reality.
• Decision making involves four major phases:
intelligence, design, choice, and implementation .
• In the intelligence phase, the problem (opportunity) is ide ntified , classified, and decomposed (if nee ded), and problem ownership is
established.
• In the design phase, a model of the system is
built, criteria for selection are agreed on, alternatives are generated, results are predicted, and a
decision methodology is created.
• In the choice phase, alternatives are compared, and
a search for the best (or a good-enough) solution is
launched. Many search techniques are available.
• In implementing alternatives, a decision maker
should consider multiple goals and sensitivityanalysis issues.
• Satisficing is a w illingness to settle for a satisfactory solution. In effect, satisficing is suboptimizing. Bounded rationality results in decision
makers satisficing.
• Computer systems can support all p hases of decision making by automating many of the required
tasks or by applying artificial intelligence.
• A DSS is designed to support complex managerial problems that other computerized techniques
cannot. DSS is user oriented, and it uses data and
models.
• DSS are generally developed to solve specific
manage1ial problems, whereas BI systems typically
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
report status, and, when a problem is discovered,
their analysis tools are utilized by decision makers .
• DSS can provide support in all phases of the decisio n-making process and to all man agerial levels
for individ uals, groups, and organizations .
• DSS is a u ser-oriented tool. Many applicatio ns can be d eve lop e d by end u sers, often in
spread sheets.
• DSS can improve the effectiveness of decision
m aking, decrease the need for training, improve
managem ent control, facilitate communication,
save effort by the users, reduce costs, and allow
for mo re o bjective decision making .
• The AIS SIGDSS classification of DSS includes
communicatio ns-driven and group DSS (GSS) ,
d ata-driven DSS, d ocumen t-driven DSS, knowledge-driven DSS, data mining and management
ES applications, and mod el-driven DSS. Several
o ther classificatio ns map into this o ne .
• Several useful classifications o f DSS are based
on w hy they are d eveloped (institutio n al versu s
ad hoc), w hat level within the o rganization they
support (personal, group, or organizatio nal),
w hethe r they support individual work o r group
w ork (individual DSS versus GSS), and how they
are developed (custom versus ready-made).
73
• The major components of a DSS are a database
and its management, a model base and its management, and a user-friendly interface. An intelligent (knowledge-based) component can also be
included . The user is also considered to be a component of a DSS.
• Data w arehouses, data mining, and O LAP have
made it p ossible to develop DSS quickly and easily.
• The data management subsystem usu ally includes
a DSS d atabase, a DBMS, a d ata d irectory, and a
query facility.
• The mo del base includes standard m odels and
mod els specifically w ritten for the DSS.
• Custom-made models can be written in programming languages, in special modeling languages,
and in Web-based development systems (e .g. , Java,
the .NET Framework) .
• The user interface (or dialog) is of utmost impo rtance. It is managed by software that p rovides the
needed capabilities. Web browsers and smartphones/ tablets commonly provide a frie ndly, consistent DSS GUI.
• The user interface cap abilities of DSS have moved
into small, portable d evices, including smartpho nes, tablets, and so forth.
Key Terms
ad hoc DSS
algorithm
analytical techniques
business inte llige nce
(BI)
cho ice phase
data warehouse
database management
system (DBMS)
decisio n making
decision style
decision variable
descriptive model
design phase
DSS application
effectiveness
efficiency
implementation phase
institutio nal DSS
intelligence phase
mo del base m anagem ent
syste m (MBMS)
normative mo del
optimization
organizational
know ledge base
principle of choice
p roblem ownership
p roblem solving
satisficing
scenario
sensitivity analysis
simulation
suboptimization
user interface
what-if analysis
Questions for Discussion
1. Why is intuition still an impottant aspect of decision making?
2. Define efficiency and effectiveness, and compare and
contrast the two.
3. Why is it impottant to focus on the effectiveness of a deci-
sion, not necessarily the efficiency of making a decision?
4. What are some of the measures of effectiveness in a
toy manufacturing plant, a restaurant, an educational
institution, and the U.S. Congress?
5. Even though implementation of a decision involves change,
and change management is very difficult, explain how
change management has not changed very much in thousands of years. Use specific examples throughout history.
6. Your company is considering opening a branch in China.
List typical activities in each phase of the decision (intelligence, design, choice, implementation) of whether to
open a branch.
74
Part I • Decision Making and Analytics: An Overview
7. You are about to buy a car. Using Simon's four-phase
model, describe your activities at each step.
8. Explain, through an example, the support given to decision makers by computers in each phase of the decision
process.
9. Some experts believe that the major contribution of DSS
is to the implementatio n of a decision. Why is this so?
10. Review the major characteristics and capabilities of
DSS. How do each of them relate to the major compone nts of DSS?
11. List some inte rnal data and external data that could be
found in a DSS for a university's admissions office.
12. Why does a DSS need a DBMS, a model management
system, and a user interface, but not necessarily a knowledge-based management system?
13. What are the benefits and the limitations of the AIS
SIGDSS classification for DSS?
14. Search for a ready-made DSS. What type of industry is its
market' Explain why it is a ready-made DSS.
Exercises
Teradata University Network TUN)
and Other Hands-On Exercises
1. Choose a case at TUN or use the case that your instructor
chooses. Describe in detail what decisions were to be made
in the case and what process was actually followed. Be sure
to describe how technology assisted or hindered the decision-making process and what the decision's impacts were .
2. Most companies and organizations have downloadable
demos or trial versions of their software products on the
Web so that you can copy and try them out on your own
compute r. Others have o nline demos. Find one that provides decision support, try it out, and write a short report
about it. Include details about the intended purpose of
the software , how it works, and how it supports decision
making.
3. Comme nt on Simo n's (1977) philosophy that managerial
decision making is synonymous with the whole process
of management. Does this make sense? Explain. Use a
real-world example in your explanation.
4. Consider a situation in which you have a preference
about where you go to college: You want to be not too
far away from home and not too close. Why might this
situation arise? Explain how this situatio n fits with rational
decision-making behavior.
5. Explore teradatauniversitynetwork.com. In a report,
d escribe at least three interesting DSS applications and
three interesting DSS areas (e.g. , CRM, SCM) that you
have discove red there.
6. Examine Daniel Power's DSS Resources site at
dssresources.com. Take the Decision Support Systems Web Tour (dssresources.com/tour/index.html).
Explore other areas of the Web site.
End-of-Chapter Application Case
Logistics Optimization in a Major Shipping Company (CSAV}
Introduction
Compafiia Sud Americana de Vapores (CSAV) is a shipping
company headquartered in Chile, South America, and is the
sixth largest shipping company in the world. Its operations
in over 100 countries worldwide are managed from seven
regional offices. CSAV operates 700,000 containers valued at
$2 billion. Less than 10 percent of these containers are owned
by CSAV. The rest are acquired from other third-party companies on lease. At the heart of CSAV's business operations
is their container fleet, which is only second to vessel fuel in
terms of cost. As part of their strategic planning, the company
recognized that addressing the problem of empty container
logistics would help reduce operational cost. In a typical cycle
of a cargo container, a shipper first acquires an empty container from a container depot. The containe r is the n loaded
onto a truck and sent to the merchant, who then fills it with his
products. Finally, the container is sent by truck to the ship for
onward transport to the destination. Typically, there are transshipme nts alo ng the way w he re a containe r may be moved
from one vessel to another until it gets to its destination. At the
destination, the container is transported to the consignee. After
emptying the container, it is sent to the nearest CSAV depot,
w here maintenance is done on the container.
There were four main challe nges recognized by
CSAV to its empty container logistics problem:
• Imbalance. Some geographic regions are net expotters
while others are net ivmporters. Places like China are
net exporters; hence, there are always shortages of containers. North America is a net importer; it always has a
surplus of containers. This creates an imbalance of containers as a result of uneven flow of containers.
• Uncertainty. Factors like demand, date of return of
empty containers, travel times, and the ship's capacity
Chapter 2 • Foundations and Technologies for Decision Making
for empty containers create uncertainty in the location
and availability of containe rs.
• Information handling and sharing. Huge loads of
data need to be processed every day. CSAV processes
400,000 containe r transactions eve1y day. Timely decisions based on accurate information had to be generated in orde r to help reduce safety stocks of e mpty
containers.
• Coordination of interrelated decisions worldwide.
Previously, decisions were made at the local level.
Consequently, in order to alleviate the empty container
proble m, decisions regarding movement of empty containers at various locations had to be coordinated.
Methodology/Solution
CSAV developed an integrated system called Empty Container
Logistics Optimization (ECO) using moving average, trended
and seasonal time series, and sales force forecast (CFM) methods. The ECO system comprises a forecasting model, invento1y model, multi-commodity (MC) network flow model, and
a Web interface. The forecasting model draws data from the
regional offices, processes it, and feeds the resultant info rmation to the inventory model. Some of the information the forecasting model generates are the space in the vessel for empty
containers and container demand. The forecasting module
also helps reduce forecast error and, hence, allows CSAV's
depot to maintain lower safety stocks. The inventory model
calculates the safety stocks and feeds it to the MC Network
Flow model. The MC Network Flow model is the core of the
ECO system. It provides information for optimal decisions
to be made regarding inventory levels, container repositioning flows, and the leasing and return of empty containers.
The objective function is to minimize empty container logistics cost, which is mostly a result of leasing, repositio ning,
storage, loading, and discharge operations.
Results/Benefits
The ECO system activities in all regional centers are well coordinated while still maintaining flexibility and creativity in their
operations. The system resulted in a 50 percent reduction
in invento1y stock. The generation of intelligent information
from historical transactional data helped increase efficiency
of operation. For instance, the empty time per containe r cycle
decreased from a high of 47.2 days in 2009 to only 27.3 days
the following year, resulting in an increase of 60 percent of
the average empty container turnover. Also, container cycles
75
increased from a record low of 3.8 cycles in 2009 to 4.8 cycles
in 2010. Moreover, when the ECO system was implemented in
2010, the excess cost per full voyage became $35 cheaper than
the average cost for the period between 2006 and 2009. This
resulted in cost savings of $101 million on all voyages in 2010.
It was estimated that ECO's direct contribution to this cost
reduction was about 80 percent ($81 millio n). CSAV projected
that ECO will help generate $200 million profits over the next
2 years since its implementation in 2010.
CASE QUESTIONS
1. Explain why solving the empty container logistics
problem contributes to cost savings for CSAV.
2. What are some of the qualitative benefits of the optimization model for the empty container movements?
3. What are some of the key benefits of the forecasting
model in the ECO system implemented by CSAV?
4. Perform an online search to determine how other shipping companies handle the empty container problem.
Do you think the ECO system would directly benefit
those companies?
5. Besides shipping logistics, can you think of any other
domain where such a system wou ld be useful in reducing cost?
What We Can Learn from This End-ofChapter Application Case
The empty containe r problem is faced by most shipping
companies. The problem is partly caused by an imbalance
in the demand of empty containers between different geographic areas. CSAV used an optimization system to solve
the empty container problem. The case demonstrates a situation where a business problem is solved not just by one
method or model, but by a combination of different operations research and analytics methods. For instance, we realize
that the optimization model used by CSAV consisted of different submodels such as the forecasting and inventory models.
The shipping industiy is only one sector among a myriad of
sectors where optimization models are used to decrease the
cost of business operations. The lessons learned in this case
could be explored in other domains such as manufacturing
and supply chain.
Source: R. Epste in et al. , "A Strategic Empty Containe r Logistics
Optimization in a Major Shipping Company," Inteifaces, Vol. 42, No.
1, January- February 2012, pp. 5-16.
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p
A
R
T
Descriptive Analytics
LEARNING OBJECTIVES FOR PART II
• Learn the role of descriptive analytics (DA) in
solving business problems
• Learn the importance of information
visualization in managerial decision support
• Learn the basic definitions, concepts, and
architectures of data warehousing CDW)
• Learn the foundatio ns of the emerging field
of visual analytics
• Learn the role of data warehouses in managerial
decisio n support
• Learn the capabilities and limitations
of dashboards and scorecards
• Learn the capabilities of business reporting and
visualization as enablers of DA
• Learn the fundamentals of business
performance management (BPM)
Descriptive analytics, often referred to as business intelligence, uses data and models to answer
the "what happened?" and "why did it happen?" questions in business settings. It is perhaps
the most fundamental echelon in the three-step analytics continuum upon which predictive and
prescriptive analytics capabilities are built. As you will see in the following chapters, the key enablers
of descriptive analytics include data warehousing, business reporting , decision dashboard/
scorecards, and visual analytics.
77
CHAPTER
Data Warehousing
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Understand the basic definitions and
co ncepts of data warehouses
• Explain the role of data ware houses in
decisio n suppo rt
• Understand data warehousing
architectures
• Explain data integration and the
extractio n, transformation , and load
(ETL) p rocesses
• Describe the p rocesses used in
develo ping and managing data
warehouses
• Explain data wareho using o perations
• Describe real-time (active) data
warehousing
• Understand data warehouse
administratio n and security issues
T
he concept of data warehou sing has been around since the late 1980s. This chapter
provides the foundatio n fo r an impo rtant type of database, called a data warehouse, w hich is primarily used for decisio n support and provides improved analytical capabilities. We discuss data warehousing in the following sections:
3. 1 Ope ning Vig n e tte: Isle of Capri Casinos Is Winning w ith Enterprise Data
Wa reho use 79
3 .2 Data Ware h o u sing Definitio ns and Con cepts 81
3 .3 Data Ware h o u sing Process Overview 87
3.4 Data Ware housing Architectures 90
3 .5 Data Integratio n and the Extractio n , Transformation, and Load (ETL)
Processes 97
3.6 Data Ware h o use Develo pme nt 102
3.7 Data Wareho u sing Impleme ntatio n Issues 113
3 .8 Real-Time D ata Wa reho using 117
3 .9 Data Ware h o u se Administratio n , Security Issues, and Fu ture Tre nds 121
3 .10 Resources, Links, a nd the Te radata Un iversity Network Connectio n 126
78
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
3.1
OPENING VIGNETTE: Isle of Capri Casinos Is Winning
with Enterprise Data Warehouse
Isle of Capri is a unique and innovative player in the gaming industry. After entering the
market in Biloxi, Mississippi, in 1992, Isle has grown into one of the country's largest
publicly traded gaming companies, mostly by establishing properties in the southeastern
United States and in the country's hea1tland. Isle of Capri Casinos, Inc., is currently operating 18 casinos in seven states, serving nearly 2 million visitors each year.
CHALLENGE
Even though they seem to have a differentiating edge, compared to others in the highly
competitive gaming industry, Isle is not entirely unique. Like any gaming company, Isle's
success depends largely on its relationship with its customers-its ability to create a gaming,
entertainment, and hospitality atmosphere that anticipates customers' needs and exceeds
their expectations. Meeting such a goal is impossible without two important components:
a company culture that is laser-focused on making the customer experience an enjoyable
one, and a data and technology architecture that enables Isle to constantly deepen its understanding of its customers, as well as the various ways customer needs can be efficiently met.
SOLUTION
After an initial data warehouse implementation was derailed in 2005, in part by Hurricane
Katrina, Isle decided to reboot the project with entirely new components and Teradata
as the core solution and key partner, along with IBM Cognos for Business Intelligence.
Shortly after that choice was made, Isle brought on a management team that clearly
understood how the Teradata and Cognos solution could enable key decision makers
throughout the operation to easily frame their own initial queries, as well as timely followup questions, thus opening up a wealth of possibilities to enhance the business.
RESULTS
Thanks to its successful implementation of a comprehensive data warehousing and business intelligence solution, Isle has achieved some deeply satisfying results. The company
has dramatically accelerated and expanded the process of information gathering and
dispersal, producing about 150 reports on a daily basis, 100 weekly, and 50 monthly, in
addition to ad hoc queries, completed within minutes, all day every day. Prior to an enterprise data warehouse (EDW) from Teradata, Isle produced about 5 monthly reports per
property, but because they took a week or more to produce, properties could not begin to
analyze monthly activity until the second week of the following month. Moreover, none
of the reports analyzed anything less than an e ntire month at a time; today, reports using
up-to-the minute data on specific customer segments at particular properties are available,
often the same day, enabling the company to react much more quickly to a wide range
of customer needs.
Isle has cut the time in half needed to construct its core monthly direct-mail campaigns and can generate less involved campaigns practically on the spo t. In addition to
moving faster, Isle has honed the process of segmentation and now can cross-reference
a wide range of attributes, such as overall customer value , gaming behaviors, and hotel
preferences. This enables the m to produce more targeted campaigns aimed at p articular
customer segments and particular behaviors.
Isle also has enabled its management and employees to further deepen their understanding of customer behaviors by connecting data from its hotel systems and d ata from
79
80
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
its custo mer-tracking systems-and to act on that understanding through improved
marketing campaigns and heightened levels of customer service. For example, the addition of hotel data offered new insights abou t the increased gaming local patrons do w hen
they stay at a hotel. This, in turn, enabled new incentive programs (such as a free hotel
night) that have pleased locals and increased Isle's customer loyalty.
The hotel data also has enhanced Isle's customer hosting program. By automatically
notifying hosts w hen a high-value guest arrives at a hotel, hosts have forged deeper relationships with the ir most important clients. "This is by fa r the best tool we've had since
I've been at the company," wrote one of the hosts.
Isle of Capri can now do more accurate property-to-property comparisons and
analyses, largely because Teradata consolidated disparate data housed at individual
properties and centralized it in o ne location. One result: A centralized intranet site
posts daily figures for each individu al property, so they can compare such things as
performance of revenue from slot machines and table games, as well as complim entary
redemptio n values. In additio n , the IBM Cognos Business Intelligence tool enables
additio nal comparisons, such as direct-mail redemption values, specific direct-mail
program response rates, direct-mail-incented gaming revenue, hotel-incented gaming
revenue, noncomplimentary (cash ) revenue from ho tel room reservations, and hotel
room occupa ncy. One clear bene fit is that it holds individual properties accountable
for constantly raising the bar.
Beginning w ith an important change in marketing strategy that shifted the focus to
customer days, time and again the Teradata/ IBM Cognos BI implementation has demonstrated the value of extending the power of data throughout Isle's enterprise. This
includes immediate analysis of response rates to marketing campaigns and the addition
of profit and loss data that has successfully connected customer value and total property
value. One example of the power of this integration: By joining customer value an d total
property value, Isle gains a better understanding of its retail customers- a population
invisible to them before-enabling them to more effectively target marketing efforts, such
as radio ads.
Perhaps most sig nificantly, Is le has begun to add slot machine data to the mix .
The most important and immediate impact will be the way in w hich customer value
w ill inform purch asing of new machines and product placement on the customer floor.
Down the road, the additio n of this data also might position Isle to take advantage
of server-based gaming, w here slot machines on the casino floor w ill essentially be
compute r te rminals that e nable the casino to switch a gam e to a new one in a matter
of seconds.
In sho rt, as Isle constructs its solutions for regularly funneling slot machine data into
the warehouse, its ability to use data to re-imagine the floor and forge ever deeper and
more lasting relationships w ill exceed anything it might have expected w hen it embarked
on this project.
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. Why is it impo rtant for Isle to have an EDW?
2. What were the business challenges or opportunities that Isle was facing?
3. What was the process Isle followed to realize EDW? Comment on the potential
challe nges Isle might have had going through the process of EDW development.
4. What were the benefits of imple me nting an EDW at Isle? Can you think of other
potential benefits that were not listed in the case?
5. Why do you think large enterprises like Isle in the gaming industry can succeed
w ithout having a capable data ware ho use/business inte lligence infrastructure?
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETTE
The opening vignette illustrates the strategic value o f impleme nting an enterprise data
warehouse, alo ng w ith its suppo rting BI methods. Isle of Capri Casinos was able to
leverage its data assets spread throughout the e nterprise to be used by knowledge
worke rs (wh erever and whenever they are n eeded) to ma ke accurate and timely decisions. The data warehouse integrated various databases throughout the organizatio n
into a single, in-house enterprise unit to generate a single version of the truth for the
company, putting all decisio n makers, from planning to marketing, on the same p age.
Furthermore, by regularly funneling slot machine d ata into the ware house, combined
with customer-specific rich data that comes from variety of sources, Isle significantly
improved its ability to discover patterns to re-imagine/ re invent the gaming floor operations and forge ever deeper and more lasting relationships with its customers. The key
lesson h ere is that an e nterprise-level data warehouse combined w ith a strategy for its
use in decision support can result in significant benefits (financia l and othe1wise) for
an organization.
Sources: Teradata, Customer Success Stories, teradata.com/t/case-stud.ies/Isle-of-Capri-Casinos-ExecutiveSummary-EB6277 (accessed February 2013); www-01.ibm.com/software/analytics/cognos.
3.2
DATA WAREHOUSING DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS
Using real-time data warehousing in conjunction w ith DSS and BI tools is an important way
to conduct business processes. The opening vignette demonstrates a scenario in which a
real-time active data warehouse supported decision making by analyzing large amounts of
data from various sources to provide rapid results to support critical processes. The single
versio n of the truth stored in the data ware house and provided in an easily digestible form
expands the boundaries of Isle of Capri's innovative business processes. With real-time
data flows, Isle can view the current state of its business and quickly identify problems,
which is the first and foremost step toward solving them analytically.
Decision makers require concise, dependable information about current operations,
trends, and changes. Data are often fragmented in distinct operational systems, so managers often make decisions with partial information , at best. Data ware housing cuts through
this obstacle by accessing, integrating, and organizing key o perational data in a form that
is consistent, reliable, timely, and readily available, wherever and w henever needed.
What Is a Data Warehouse?
In simple terms, a data warehouse (DW) is a pool of data produced to support decision
making; it is also a repository of curre nt and historical data of potential inte rest to managers throughout the organization. Data are usually structured to be available in a form
ready for analytical processing activities (i.e. , online analytical processing [OLAP], data
mining, querying, reporting, and othe r decision support applicatio ns). A data wareho use
is a subject-oriented, integrated, time-variant, nonvolatile collection of data in support of
management's decision-making process.
A Historical Perspective to Data Warehousing
Even though data ware housing is a relatively new term in information technology, its
roots can be traced way back in time, even before computers were widely used. In the
early 1900s, people were using data (though mostly via manual methods) to formulate
trends to help bu siness users make informed decisions, which is the most prevailing purpose of data wareho using.
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
The motivations that led to developing data warehousing technologies go back to
the 1970s, when the computing world was dominated by the mainframes. Real business
data-processing applications, the ones run on the corporate mainframes, had complicated
file structures using early-generation databases (not the table-oriented relational databases
most applications use today) in which they stored data. Although these applications d id
a decent job of performing routine transactional data-processing functions, the data created as a result of these functions (such as information about customers, the products
they ordered, and how much money they spent) was locked away in the depths of the
files and databases. When aggregated information such as sales trends by region and by
product type was needed, one had to formally request it from the data-processing department, where it was put on a waiting list w ith a couple hundred other report requests
(Hammergren and Simon, 2009). Even though the need for information and the data that
could be used to generate it existed, the database technology was not there to satisfy it.
Figure 3.1 shows a timeline where some of the significant events that led to the development of data warehousing are shown.
Later in this decade, commercial hardware and software companies began to emerge
with solutions to this problem. Between 1976 and 1979, the concept for a new company,
Teradata, grew out of research at the California Institute of Technology (Caltech), driven
from discussions with Citibank's advanced technology group. Founders worked to design
a database management system for parallel processing with multiple microprocessors,
targeted specifically for decision suppo1t. Teradata was incorporated on July 13, 1979, and
started in a garage in Brentwood, California. The name Teradata was chosen to symbolize
the ability to manage terabytes (trillions of bytes) of data.
The 1980s were the decade of personal computers and minicomputers. Before anyone knew it, real computer applications were no longer only o n mainframes; they were
all over the place-everywhere you looked in an organization. That led to a portentous
problem called islands of data. The solution to this problem led to a new type of software, called a distributed database management system, which would magically pull the
requested data from databases across the organization, bring all the data back to the same
place, and then consolidate it, sort it, and do whatever else was necessa1y to answer the
user's question. Although the con cept was a good one and early results from research
were promising, the results were plain and simple: They just didn't work efficiently in the
real world, and the islands-of-data problem still existed .
./ Mainframe computers
./ Simple data entry
./ Routine reporting
./ Primitive database structures
./ Teradata incorporated
./ Centralized data storage
./ Data warehousing was born
./ Inmon, Building the Oat;a Warehouse
./ Kimball, The Oat;a Warehouse Toolkit
./ EDW architecture design
./ Big Data analytics
./ Social media analytics
./ Text and Web analytics
./ Hadoop, MapReduce, NoSQL
./ In-memory, in-database
-----1970s - - - - 1 ssos----1ssos----2ooos----201os ~
./ Mini/personal computers [PCs)
./ Business applications for PCs
./ Distributer DBMS
./ Relational DBMS
./ Ter adata ships commercial DBs
./ Business Data Warehouse coined
FIGURE 3.1
./ Exponentially growing data Web data
./ Consolidation of OW/ Bl industry
./ Data warehouse appliances emerged
./ Business intelligence popularized
./ Data mining and predictive modeling
./ Open source software
./ Saas, PaaS, Cloud computing
A List of Events That Led to Data Warehousing Development.
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
Meanwhile, Teradata began shipping commercial products to solve this problem. Wells Fargo Bank rece ived the first Teradata test system in 1983, a parallel RDBMS
(relational database management system) for decision support- the world's first. By 1984,
Teradata released a production version of their product, and in 1986, Fortune magazine
named Teradata Product of the Year. Teradata, still in existence today, built the first data
warehousing appliance- a combination of hardware and software to solve the data warehousing needs of many. Other companies began to formulate their strategies, as well.
During this decade several other events happened, collectively making it the decade
of data warehousing innovation. For instance, Ralph Kimball founded Red Brick Systems
in 1986. Red Brick began to emerge as a visionary software company by discussing how
to improve data access; in 1988, Barry Devlin and Paul Murphy of IBM Ireland introduced
the term business data warehouse as a key component of business information systems.
In the 1990s a new approach to solving the islands-of-data problem surfaced. If the
1980s approach of reaching out and accessing data directly from the files and databases
didn't work, the 1990s philosophy involved going back to the 1970s method, in which
data from those places was copied to another location-only doing it right this time;
hence, data warehousing was born. In 1993, Bill Inmon wrote the seminal book Building
the Data Warehouse. Many people recognize Bill as the father of data warehousing.
Additional publications emerged, including the 1996 book by Ralph Kimball, Tbe Data
Warehouse Toolkit, which discussed general-purpose dimensional design techniques to
improve the data architecture for query-cente red decision support systems.
In the 2000s, in the world of data warehousing, both popularity and the amount of
data continued to grow. The vendor community and options have begun to consolidate.
In 2006, Microsoft acquired ProClarity, jumping into the data warehousing market. In
2007, Oracle purchased Hyperion, SAP acquired Business Objects, and IBM merged with
Cognos. The data warehousing leaders of the 1990s have been swallowed by some of
the largest providers of information system solutions in the world. During this time, other
innovations have emerged, including data warehouse appliances from vendors such as
Netezza (acquired by IBM), Greenplum (acquired by EMC), DATAllegro (acquire d by
Microsoft), and performance ma nagement appliances that enable real-time performance
monitoring. These innovative solutions provided cost savings because they were plugcompatible to legacy data warehouse solutions.
In the 2010s the big buzz has been Big Data. Many be lieve that Big Data is going to
make an impact on data warehousing as we know it. Either they will find a way to coexist (which seems to be the most likely case, at least for several years) or Big Data (and
the technologies that come w ith it) w ill make traditional data warehousing obsolete. The
technologies that came with Big Data include Hadoop , MapReduce, NoSQL, Hive, and so
forth. Maybe we will see a new te rm coined in the world of data that combines the needs
and capabilities of traditional data warehousing and the Big Data phenomenon.
Characteristics of Data Warehousing
A common way of introducing data warehousing is to refer to its fundamental characteristics (see Inmon, 2005):
• Subject oriented. Data are organized by detailed subject, such as sales, products, or
customers, containing only information relevant for decision support. Subject orientation enables users to determine not only how their business is performing, but why. A
data warehouse differs from an operational database in that most operational databases
have a product orientation and are tuned to handle transactions that update the database. Subject orientation provides a more comprehensive view of the organization.
• Integrated. Integration is closely related to subject orientation. Data warehouses
must place data from differe nt sources into a consistent format. To do so, they must
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
deal with naming conflicts and discrepancies among units of measure. A data warehouse is presumed to be totally integrated.
• Time variant (time series). A warehouse maintains historical data. The data
do not necessarily provide current status (except in real-time systems). They detect
trends, deviations, and long-term relationships for forecasting and comparisons, leading to decision making. Every data warehouse has a temporal quality. Time is the one
important dimension that all data warehouses must support. Data for analysis from
multiple sources contains multiple time points (e.g., daily, weekly, monthly views).
• Nonvolatile. After data are entered into a data warehouse, users cannot change or
update the data. Obsolete data are discarded, and changes are recorded as new data.
These characteristics enable data warehouses to be tuned almost exclusively for data
access. Some additional characteristics may include the following:
• Web based. Data warehouses are typically designed to provide an efficient
computing environment for Web-based applications.
• Relational/multidimensional. A data warehouse uses either a relational structure or a multidimensional stmcture. A recent survey on multidimensional stmctures
can be found in Romero and Abell6 (2009).
• Clientjserver. A data warehouse uses the client/ server architecture to provide
easy access for end users.
• Real time. Newer data warehouses provide real-time, or active, data-access and
analysis capabilities (see Basu, 2003; and Bonde and Kuckuk, 2004).
• Include metadata. A data warehouse contains metadata (data about data) about
how the data are organized and how to effectively use them.
Whereas a data warehouse is a repository of data, data warehousing is literally the
entire process (see Watson, 2002). Data warehousing is a discipline that results in applications that provide decision support capability, allows ready access to business information, and creates business insight. The three main types of data warehouses are data
marts, operational data stores (ODS), and enterprise data warehouses (EDW). In addition
to discussing these three types of warehouses next, we also discuss metadata.
Data Marts
Whereas a data warehouse combines databases across an entire enterprise, a data mart
is usually smaller and focuses on a particular subject or department. A data mart is a
subset of a data warehouse, typically consisting of a single subject area (e.g ., marketing,
operations). A data mart can be either dependent or independent. A dependent data
mart is a subset that is created directly from the data warehouse. It has the advantages
of using a consistent data model and providing quality data. Dependent data marts support the concept of a single enterprise-wide data model, but the data warehouse must be
constructed first. A dependent data mart ensures that the end user is viewing the same
version of the data that is accessed by all other data warehouse users. The high cost of
data warehouses limits their use to large companies. As an alternative, many firms use a
lower-cost, scaled-dow n version of a data warehouse referred to as an independent data
mart. An independent data mart is a small warehouse designed for a strategic business
unit (SBU) or a department, but its source is not an EDW.
Operational Data Stores
An operational data store (ODS) provides a fairly recent form of customer information
file (CIF). This type of database is often used as an interim staging area for a data warehouse. Unlike the static contents of a data warehouse, the contents of an ODS are updated
throughout the course of business operations. An ODS is used for sho1t-term decisions
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
involving mission-critical applications rather than for the medium- and long-term decisions
associated w ith an EDW. An ODS is similar to short-term memo1y in that it stores only very
recent information. In comparison, a data warehouse is like long-term memory because it
stores permanent information. An ODS consolidates data from multiple source systems and
provides a near-real-time, integrated view of volatile, current data. The exchange, transfer,
and load (ETI) processes (discussed later in this chapter) for an ODS are identical to those
for a data warehouse. Finally, oper marts (see Imhoff, 2001) are created when operational
data needs to be analyzed multidimensionally. The data for an oper mart come from an ODS.
Enterprise Data Warehouses (EDW)
An enterprise data warehouse (EDW) is a large-scale data warehouse that is used
across the enterprise for decision support. It is the type of data warehouse that Isle of
Capri developed, as described in the opening vignette. The large-scale nature provides
integration of data from many sources into a standard format for effective BI and decision
support applications. EDW are used to provide data for many types of DSS, including
CRM, supply chain management (SCM), business performance management (BPM), business activity monito ring (BAM), product life-cycle management (PLM), revenue management, and sometimes even knowledge management systems (KMS). Application Case 3.1
shows the variety of benefits that telecommunication companies leverage from implementing data warehouse driven analytics solutions.
Metadata
Metadata are data about data (e.g., see Sen , 2004; and Zhao, 2005). Metadata describe
the structure of and some meaning about data, thereby contributing to their effective or
Application Case 3.1
A Better Data Plan: Well-Established TELCOs Leverage Data Warehousing and Analytics
to Stay on Top in a Competitive Industry
Mobile service p roviders (i.e ., Telecommunication
Companies, or TELCOs in short) that helped trigger
the explosive growth of the industry in the mid- to
late-1990s have lo ng reaped the benefits of being first
to market. But to stay competitive, these companies
must continuously refine everything from customer
service to plan pricing. In fact, veteran carriers face
many of the same challenges that up-and-coming
carriers do: retaining custome rs, decreasing costs,
fine-tuning pricing models, improving customer satisfaction, acquiring new customers and understanding the role of social media in customer loyalty
Highly targeted data analytics play an evermore-critical role in helping carriers secure or
improve their standing in an increasingly competitive marketplace. Here's how some of the world's
leading providers are creating a strong future based
on solid business and customer intelligence.
Customer Retention
It's no secret that the speed and success with which
a provider handles service requests directly affects
customer satisfaction and, in turn, the propensity to
churn. But getting down to which factors h ave the
greatest impact is a challenge.
"If we could trace the steps involved with each
process, we could understand points of failure and
acceleration," notes Roxanne Garcia, manager of
the Commercial Operations Center for Telefonica
de Argentina. "We could measure workflows both
within and across functions, anticipate rather than
react to performance indicators, and improve the
overall satisfaction with onboarding new customers."
The company's solution was its traceability project, w hich began w ith 10 dashboards in 2009. It has
since realized US$2.4 million in annualized revenues
(Continued)
85
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 3.1
(Continued}
and cost savings, shortened customer provisioning
times and reduced customer defections by 30%.
Cost Reduction
Staying ahead of the game in any industry depends,
in large part, on keeping costs in line. For France's
Bouygues Telecom, cost reduction came in the form
of automation. Aladin, the company's Teradata-based
marketing operations management system, automates marketing/communications collateral production. It delivered more than US$1 million in savings
in a single year while tripling email campaign and
content production.
"The goal is to be more productive and responsive, to simplify teamwork, [and] to standardize and
protect our expertise," notes Catherine Corrado, the
company's project lead and retail communications
manager. "(Aladin lets] team members focus on valueadded work by reducing low-value tasks. The end
result is more quality and more creative [output]."
An unintended but very welcome benefit of
Aladin is that other departments have been inspired to
begin deploying similar projects for everything from
call center support to product/offer launch processes.
Customer Acquisition
With market penetration near or above 100% in
many countries, thanks to consumers who own
multiple devices, the issue of new customer acquisition is no small challenge. Pakistan's largest carrier,
Mobilink, also faces the difficulty of operating in a
market where 98% of users have a pre-paid plan that
requires regular purchases of additional minutes.
"Topping up, in particular, keeps the revenues
strong and is critical to our company's growth," says
Umer Afzal, senior manager, BI. "Previously we
lacked the ability to enhance this aspect of incremental growth. Our sales info1mation model gave us that
ability because it helped the distribution team plan
sales tactics based on smarter data-driven strategies
that keep our suppliers [of SIM cards, scratch cards
and electronic top-up capability] fully stocked."
As a result, Mobilink has not only grown subscriber recharges by 2% but also expanded new customer acquisition by 4% and improved the profitability
of those sales by 4%.
Social Networking
The expanding use of social networks is changing how many organizations approach everything
from customer service to sales and marketing. More
carriers are turning their attention to social networks to better understand and influence customer
behavior.
Mobilink has initiated a social n etwork analysis project that will enable the company to explore
the concept of viral marketing and identify key
influencers who can act as brand ambassadors to
cross-sell products. Velcom is looking for similar
key influencers as well as low-value customers
whose social value can be leveraged to improve
existing relationships. Meanwhile, Swisscom is
looking to combine the social network aspect of
customer behavior with the rest of its analysis over
the next several months.
Rise to the Challenge
While each market presents its own unique challe nges, most mobile carriers spend a great deal of
time and resources creating, deploying and refining
plans to address each of the challenges outlined
here. The good news is that just as the industry and
mobile technology h ave expanded and improved
over the years, so also have the data analytics solutions that have been created to meet these challe nges head on.
Sound data analysis uses existing customer,
business and market intelligence to predict and influence future behaviors and outcomes. The end result
is a smarter, more agile and more successful approach
to gaining market share and improving profitability.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What are the main challenges for TELCOs?
2. How can data warehousing and data analytics
help TELCOs in overcoming their challenges?
3. Why do you think TELCOs are well suited to take
full advantage of data analytics?
Source: Teradata Magazine, Case Study by Colleen Marble , "A
Better Data Plan: Well-Established Telcos Leverage Analytics
to Stay on Top in a Competitive Industry" http://www.
teradatamagazine.com/v13n01/Features/A-Better-DataPlan/ (accessed September 2013).
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
ineffective use. Mehra (2005) indicated that few organizations really understand metadata,
and fewer understand how to design and implement a metadata strategy. Metadata are
generally defined in terms of usage as technical or business metadata. Pattern is another
way to view metadata. According to the pattern view, we can differentiate between syntactic metadata (i.e., data describing the syntax of data), structural me tadata (i.e., data
describing the structure of the data), and semantic metadata (i.e., data describing the
meaning of the data in a specific domain).
We next explain traditional metadata patterns and insights into how to implement
an effective metadata strategy via a holistic approach to enterprise metadata integration.
The approach includes ontology and metadata registries; enterprise information integration
(Ell); extraction, transformation, and load (ETI); and service-oriented architectures (SOA).
Effectiveness, extensibility, reusability, interoperability, efficiency and performance, evolution,
entitlement, flexibility, segregation, user inte1face, versioning, versatility, and low maintenance
cost are some of the key requirements for building a successful metadata-driven enterprise.
According to Kassam (2002), business metadata comprise information that increases
our understanding of traditional (i.e., structured) data. The primary purpose of metadata
should be to provide context to the reported data; that is, it provides enriching information that leads to the creation of knowledge. Business me tadata, though difficult to provide efficiently, release more of the potential of structured data. The context need not
be the same for all users. In many ways, metadata assist in the conversion of data and
information into knowledge. Metadata form a foundation for a metabusiness architecture
(see Bell, 2001). Tannenbaum (2002) described how to identify metadata requirements.
Vaduva and Vetterli (2001) provided an overview of metadata management for data warehousing. Zhao (2005) described five levels of metadata management maturity: (1) ad
hoc, (2) discovered, (3) managed, (4) optimized, and (5) automated. These levels help in
understanding where an organization is in terms of how and how well it uses its metadata.
The design, creation, and use of metadata-descriptive or summary data about
data-and its accompanying standards may involve ethical issues. There are ethical
considerations involved in the collection and ownership of the information contained
in metadata, including privacy and intellectual prope 1ty issues that arise in the design,
collection, and dissemination stages (for more, see Brody, 2003).
SECTION 3.2 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is a data warehouse?
2. How does a data warehouse differ from a database?
3. What is an ODS?
4. Differentiate among a data mart, an ODS, and an EDW.
5. Explain the importance of metadata.
3.3
DATA WAREHOUSING PROCESS OVERVIEW
Organizations, private and public, continuously collect data, information, and knowledge
at an increasingly accelerated rate and store them in computerized systems. Maintaining
and using these data and information becomes extremely complex, especially as
scalability issues arise. In addition, the number of users needing to access the information continues to increase as a result of improved reliability and availability of network
access, especially the Internet. Working with multiple databases, e ither integrated in a
data warehouse or not, has become an extremely difficult task requiring considerable
expertise, but it can provide immense benefits far exceeding its cost. As an illustrative
example, Figure 3.2 shows business benefits of the enterprise data warehouse built by
Teradata for a major automobile manufacturer.
87
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
-
-----
,----
Enterprise Data Warehouse
One management and analytical platform
for product configuration, warranty,
and diagnostic readout data
--I
I
Reduced
Expense
Reduced Warranty
Expense
Improved reimbursement
2 / 3 cost r eduction through
data mart consolidation
accuracy through improved
claim data quality
Infrastructure
FIGURE 3.2
Improved Cost of
Quality
Faster ident ification ,
prioritization, and
resolution of quality issues
I
I
Accurate
Environmental
Performance
Reporting
One strategic platform for
IT Architecture
Standardization
business intelligence and
compliance r eporting
Data-Driven Decision Making-Business Benefit s of a n Enterprise Data W arehouse.
Application Case 3.2
Data Warehousing Helps MultiCare Save More Lives
In the spring of 2012, leadership at MultiCare Health
System (MultiCare)- a Tacoma, Washington- based
health system- realized the results of a 12-month
journey to reduce septicemia.
The effort was supported by the system's
top leadership, who participated in a data-driven
approach to prioritize care improvement based on
an analysis of resources consumed and variation in
care outcomes. Reducing septicemia (mortality rates)
was a top priority for MultiCare as a result of three
hospitals performing below, and one that was performing well below, national mortality averages.
In September 2010, MultiCare implemented
Health Catalyst's Adaptive Data Warehouse, a
healthcare-specific data model, and subsequent clinical and process improvement services to measure
and effect care through organizational and process
improvements. Two major factors contributed to the
rapid reduction in septicemia mortality.
Clinical Data to Drive Improvement
The Adaptive Data Warehouse™ organized and simplified data from multiple data sources across the
continuum of care. It became the single source of
truth requisite to see care improvement opportunities and to measure change. It also proved to be an
important means to unify clinical, IT, and financial
leaders and to drive accountability for performance
improvement.
Because it proved difficult to define sepsis due
to the complex comorbidity factors leading to septicemia, MultiCare partnered with Health Catalyst
to refine the clinical definition of sepsis. Health
Catalyst's data work allowed MultiCare to explore
around the boundaries of the definition and to ultimately settle on an algorithm that defined a septic
patient. The iterative work resulted in increased confidence in the severe sepsis cohort.
Syste m -Wide Critical Care Collaborative
The establishment and collaborative efforts of permanent, integrated teams consisting of clinicians,
technologists, analysts, and quality personnel were
essential for accelerating MultiCare's efforts to
reduce septicemia mortality. Together the collaborative addressed three key bodies of work- standard
of care definition, early identification, and efficient
delivery of defined-care standard.
Standard o f Care: Severe Sep sis
Order Set
The Critical Care Collaborative streamlined several
sepsis order sets from across the organization into
one system-wide standard for the care of severely
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
septic patients. Adult patients presenting with sepsis
receive the same care, no matter at which MultiCare
hospital they present.
Early Identification: Modified Early
Warning System (MEWS)
MultiCare developed a modified early warning system (MEWS) dashboard that leveraged the cohort
definition and the clinical EMR to quickly identify
patients w ho were trending toward a sudden downturn. Hospital staff constantly monitor MEWS, which
serves as an early detection tool for caregivers to
provide preemptive interventions.
Efficient Delivery: Code Sepsis
("Time Is Tissue")
The final key piece of clinical work undertaken by
the Collaborative was to ensure timely implementation of the defined standard of care to patients who
are more efficiently identified. That model already
exists in healthcare and is known as the "code" process. Similar to other "code" processes (code trauma,
code neuro, code STEMI), code sepsis at MultiCare
is designed to bring together essential caregivers in
order to efficiently deliver time-sensitive, life-saving
treatments to the patient presenting with severe
sepsis.
In just 12 months, MultiCare was able to
redu ce septicemia mo rtality rates by a n average of
22 percent, leading to more than $1.3 million in
validated cost savings during that same period. The
sepsis cost reductio ns and quality of care improvements have raised the exp ectation that similar
results can be realized in other areas of MultiCare,
including heart failure, emergency department
performance, and inpatient throughput.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What do you think is the role of data warehousing in healthcare systems?
2. How did MultiCare u se data warehousing to
improve health outcomes?
Source.- healthcatalyst.com/success_stories/multicare-2 (accessed February 2013).
Many organizations nee d to crea te data warehouses-massive data stores of timeseries data for decision support. Data are imported from various external and internal
resources and are cleansed and o rganized in a manner consistent with the organization's
needs. Afte r the data are populated in the data warehouse, data marts can be loaded for a
specific area or department. Alternatively, data marts can be created first, as needed, and
then integrated into an EDW. Often , though, data marts are not developed, but data are
simply loaded o nto PCs or left in their original state for direct manipulation u sing BI tools.
In Figure 3.3, we show the data warehouse con cept. The following are the major
components of the data warehousing process:
• Data sources. Data are sourced from multiple independent operational "legacy"
systems and possibly from external data provide rs (such as the U.S. Census). Data
may also come from an OLTP o r ERP system. Web data in the form of Web logs may
also feed a data warehouse.
• Data extraction and transformation. Data are extracted and properly transformed using custom-written or commercial software called ETL.
• Data loading. Data are loaded into a staging area, where they are transformed
and cleansed. The data are then ready to load into the data warehouse and/ or data
marts.
• Comprehensive database. Essentially, this is the EDW to support all decision
analysis by providing relevant summarized and detailed informatio n originating
from many different sources.
• Metadata. Metadata are maintained so that they can be assessed by IT personnel
and users. Metadata include software programs about data and rules for organizing
data summaries that are easy to index and search , especia lly w ith Web tools.
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
No data marts option
Data
Sources
~
~
~
Access
ETL
Process
Applications
(Visualization)
Select
Metadata
Extract
[ Transform
Integrate
Data/text
mining
Enterprise
Data
Warehouse
DLAP,
Dashboard,
Web
Load
Replication
FIGURE 3.3
A Data Warehouse Framework and Views.
• Middleware tools. Middleware tools enable access to the data warehouse. Power
users su ch as analysts may w rite their own SQL queries. Others may employ a managed query environment, such as Business Objects, to access data. There are many
front-end applicatio ns that business users can use to interact with data stored in the
data repositories, including data mining, OLAP, reporting tools, and data visualization tools.
SECTION 3 .3 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Describe the data warehousing process.
2 . Describe the major components of a data warehou se.
3. Identify and discuss the role of middleware tools.
3.4
DATA WAREHOUSING ARCHITECTURES
There are several basic information system architectures that can be u sed for data warehousing. Generally speaking, these architectures are commonly called client/ server or
n-tier architectures , of which two-tier and three-tier architectures are the most common
(see Figures 3.4 and 3.5), but sometimes there is simply one tier. These types of multi-tiered
Tier 1:
Client workstation
FIGURE 3.4
Tier 2:
Application server
Architecture of a Three-Tier Data Warehouse.
Tier 3:
Database server
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
Tier 1:
Client workstation
FIGURE 3.5
Tier 2:
Application and
database server
Architecture of a Two-Tier Data Warehouse.
architectures are known to be capable of serving the needs of large-scale, performancedemanding information systems such as data warehouses. Referring to the use of n-tiered
architectures for data warehousing, Hoffer et al. (2007) distinguished among these architectures by dividing the data warehouse into three parts:
1. The data warehouse itself, which contains the data and associated software
2. Data acquisition (back-end) software, w hich extracts data from legacy systems and
external sources, consolidates and summarizes them, and loads them into the data
ware house
3. Client (front-end) software, which allows users to access and analyze data from the
warehouse (a DSS/ Bl/business analytics [BAJ engine)
In a three-tier architecture, operational systems contain the data and the software for
data acquisition in one tier (i.e., the server), the data warehouse is another tier, and the
third tier includes the DSS/BI/BA engine (i.e. , the application server) and the client (see
Figure 3.4). Data from the warehouse are processed twice and deposited in an additional
multidimensional database, organized for easy multidimensional analysis and presentation, o r replicated in data marts. The advantage of the three-tier architecture is its separatio n of the functions of the data warehouse, w hich e liminates resource constraints and
makes it possible to easily create data marts.
In a two-tier architecture, the DSS engine physically runs o n the same hardware
platform as the data warehouse (see Figure 3.5). Therefore, it is more economical than
the three-tier structure. The two-tier architecture can have performance problems for large
data warehouses that work w ith data-intensive applications for decision support.
Mu ch of the common wisdom assumes an absolutist approach, maintaining that
one solution is better than the o ther, despite the o rganizatio n's circumstances and unique
needs. To further complicate these architectural decisions, many consultants and software
vendors focus on o ne portio n of the architecture, therefore limiting their capacity and
mo tivation to assist an organization through the options based on its needs. But these
asp ects are being questioned and a nalyzed. For example, Ball (2005) provided decision criteria for organizations that plan to implement a BI application and have already
determined their need for multidimensional data marts but need help determining the
appropriate tie red architecture. His criteria revolve around forecasting needs for space
and speed of access (see Ball, 2005, for details).
Data ware housing and the Internet are two key technologies that offer important
solutions for managing corporate data. The integratio n of these two technologies produces Web-based data warehousing. In Figure 3.6, we show the architecture of Webbased data wareho using . The architecture is three tiered and includes the PC client, Web
server, and application server. On the client side, the user needs an Internet connection
and a Web browser (preferably Java enabled) throug h the familiar graphical user interface (GUI). The Inte rnet/ intranet/ extra net is the communicatio n me dium between client
91
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Web pages
Application
server
Client
[Web browser)
Internet/
Intranet/
Extra net
Web
server
Data
warehouse
FIGURE 3.6
Architecture of Web-Based Data Warehousing.
and servers. On the server side, a Web server is used to manage the inflow and outflow
of information between client and server. It is backed by both a data warehouse and an
application server. Web-based data warehousing offers several compelling advantages,
including ease of access, platform independence, and lower cost.
The Vanguard Group moved to a Web-based, three-tier architecture for its enterprise
architecture to integrate all its data and provide customers with the same views of data
as internal users (Dragoon , 2003). Likewise, Hilton migrated all its independent client/
server systems to a three-tier data warehouse, using a Web design enterprise system. This
change involved an investment of $3.8 million (excluding labor) and affected 1,500 users.
It increased processing efficiency (speed) by a factor of six. When it was deployed, Hilton
expected to save $4.S to $5 million annually. Finally, Hilton experimented with Dell's clustering (i.e., parallel computing) technology to enhance scalability and speed (see Anthes,
2003).
Web architectures for data warehousing are similar in structure to other data warehousing architectures, requiring a design choice for housing the Web data warehouse
with the transaction server or as a separate server(s). Page-loading speed is an important
consideration in designing Web-based applications; therefore, server capacity must be
planned carefully .
Several issues must be considered when deciding which architecture to use. Among
them are the following:
• Which database management system {DBMS) should be used? Most data
warehouses are built using relational database management systems (RDBMS). Oracle
(Oracle Corporation, oracle.com), SQL Server (Microsoft Corporation, microsoft.
com/sql), and DB2 (IBM Corporation, http://www-Ol.ibm.com/software/data/
db2/) are the ones most commonly used. Each of these products supports both
client/server and Web-based architectures.
• Will parallel processing and/or partitioning be used? Parallel processing
enables multiple CPUs to process data warehouse query requests simultaneously
and provides scalability. Data warehouse designers need to decide whether the database tables will be partitioned (i.e., split into smaller tables) for access efficiency and
what the criteria w ill be. This is an important consideration that is necessitated by
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
the large amounts of data contained in a typical data warehou se. A recent survey o n
parallel and distributed data wareho uses can be fou nd in Furtado (2009). Teradata
(teradata.com) has su ccessfully adopted and often commended on its novel implementation of this approach .
• Will data migration tools be used to load the data warehouse? Moving
data from an existing system into a data warehouse is a tedious and laborious task.
Depending o n the diversity and the locatio n of the data assets, migration may be
a re latively simple procedure or (in contrast) a mo nths-long project. The results
of a thorough assessment of the existing data assets should be used to determine
whether to use migration tools and, if so, what capabilities to seek in those commercial tools.
• What tools will be used to support data retrieval and analysis? Often it
is necessary to use specialized tools to periodically locate, access, analyze, extract,
transform, and load necessary data into a data warehouse. A decision has to be
made on (1) developing the migration tools in-hou se, (2) purchasing them from a
third-party provide r, or (3) using the ones provided with the data warehouse system .
Overly complex, real-time migrations warrant specialized third-part ETL tools.
Alternative Data Warehousing Architectures
At the highest level, data warehouse architecture design viewpoints can be categorized
into enterprise-wide data warehouse (EDW) design and data mart (DM) design (Golfarelli
and Rizzi, 2009). In Figure 3.7 (parts a- e), we show some alternatives to the basic architectural design types that are neither pure EDW nor pure DM, but in between or beyond
the traditional architectural structures. Notable new ones include hub-and-spoke and
federated architectures. The five architectures shown in Figure 3.7 (parts a- e) are proposed by Ariyachandra and Watson (2005, 2006a, and 2006b). Previously, in an extensive
study, Sen and Sinha (2005) identified 15 different data warehousing me thodologies. The
sources of these me thodologies are classified into three broad categories: core-technology
vendo rs, infrastructure vendors, and informatio n-modeling companies.
a. Independent data marts. This is arguably the simplest and the least costly architecture alte rnative. The data marts are develope d to operate independently of each
another to serve the needs of individual organizational units. Because of their independence, they may have inconsistent data definitions and different dimensions and
measures, making it difficult to analyze data across the data marts (i.e., it is difficult,
if not impossible, to get to the "o ne version of the truth").
b. Data mart bus architecture. This architecture is a viable alternative to the independent data marts where the individual marts are linked to each other via some
kind of middleware. Because the data are linked among the individual marts, there
is a better chance of maintaining data consistency across the enterprise (at least at
the metadata level). Even though it allows for complex data queries across data
marts, the performance of these types of analysis may not be at a satisfactory level.
c. Hub-and-spoke architecture. This is perhaps the most famous data warehousing architecture today. Here the attentio n is focused on building a scalable and
maintainable infrastructure (ofte n develo ped in an iterative way, subject area by
subject area) that includes a centralized data warehouse and several dependent data
marts (each for an organizational unit). This architecture allows for easy customization of user interfaces and reports. On the negative side, this architecture lacks the
holistic enterprise view, and may lead to data redundancy and data latency.
d. Centralized data warehouse. The centralized data warehouse architecture is
similar to the hub-and-spoke architecture except that there are no dependent data
marts; instead, there is a gigantic e nterprise data warehouse that serves the needs
93
94
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
(a) Independent Data Marts Architecture
ETL
Source
systems
Staging
area
Independent data marts
[atomic/summarized data]
End-user
access and
applicat ions
(bl Data Mart Bus Architecture with Linked Dimensional Data Marts
ETL
Source
systems
Staging
area
Dimensionalized
data marts linked by
conformed dimensions
[atomic/summarized data]
End-user
access and
applications
(cl Hub-and-Spoke Architecture (Corporate Information Factory)
ETL
Source
systems
Staging
area
Normalized relational
warehouse [atomic data]
access and
applications
Dependent data marts
[summarized/some atomic data)
(d) Centralized Data Warehouse Architecture
ETL
Source
systems
Staging
area
Normalized relational
warehouse [atomic/some
summarized data)
End-user
access and
applications
(e) Federated Architecture
Data mapping/ metadata
Existing data warehouses
Data marts and
legacy systems
Logical/physical integration
of common data elements
End-user
access and
applications
FIGURE 3.7 Alternative Data Warehouse Architectures. Source: Adapted from T. Ariyachandra and
H. Watson, "Which Data Warehouse Architecture Is Most Successful?" Business Intelligence Journal,
Vol. 11, No. 1, First Quarter, 2006, pp. 4--6.
of all organizatio nal units. This centralized approach provides users with access to
all data in the data warehouse instead of limiting them to data marts. In addition,
it reduces the amount of data the technical team has to transfer or change, therefore simplifying data management and administration. If designed and implemented
properly, this architecture provides a time ly and holistic view of the enterprise to
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
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Source: Teradata Corporation (teradata.com). Used with
permission.
w homever, whenever, and wherever they may be within the organization . The
central data warehouses architecture, which is advocated mainly by Teradata Corp.,
advises using data warehouses without any data marts (see Figure 3.8).
e. Federated data warehouse. The federated approach is a concession to the natural forces that undermine the best plans for developing a perfect system. It uses
all possible means to integrate analytical resources from multiple sources to meet
changing needs or business conditions. Essentially, the federated approach involves
integrating disparate systems. In a federated architecture, existing decision support
structures are left in place, and data are accessed from those sources as needed. The
federated approach is supported by middleware vendors that propose distributed
query and join capabilities. These eXtensible Markup Language (XML)-based tools
offer users a global view of distributed data sources, including data warehouses, data
marts, Web sites, documents, and operational systems. When users choose query
objects from this view and press the submit button, the tool automatically que ries
the distributed sources, joins the results, and presents them to the user. Because of
performance and data quality issues, most experts agree that federated approaches
work well to supplement data warehouses, not replace them (see Eckerson, 2005).
Ariyachandra and Watson (2005) identified 10 factors that potentially affect the
architecture selectio n decision:
1. Informatio n interdependence between organizational units
2. Upper management's information needs
3. Urgency of need for a data warehouse
95
96
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
4. Nature of end-user tasks
5. Constraints on resources
6. Strategic view of the data warehouse prior to implementation
7. Compatibility with existing systems
8. Perceived ability of the in-house IT staff
9. Technical issues
10. Social/political factors
These factors are similar to many success factors described in the lite rature for
info rmatio n syste ms projects and DSS and BI projects. Technical issues, beyond providing technology that is feasibly ready for u se, are important, but often not as important
as behavioral issues, such as meeting upper management's information needs an d user
involvement in the development process (a social/political factor) . Each data warehousing
architecture has specific applicatio ns for which it is most (and least) effective and thus
provides maximal benefits to the organization. However, overall, the data mart structure
seems to be the least effective in practice. See Ariyachandra and Watson (2006a) for some
additional details.
Which Architecture Is the Best?
Ever since data warehousing became a critical part of modern enterprises, the question
of which data warehouse architecture is the best has been a topic of regular discussion . The two gurus of the data warehousing field, Bill Inmon and Ralph Kimball, are at
the heart of this discussion. Inmon advocates the hub-and-spoke architecture (e.g., the
Corporate Information Factory), whereas Kimball promotes the data mart bus architecture
w ith conformed dimensions. Othe r architectures are possible, but these two options are
fundamentally diffe rent approaches, and each has strong advocates. To shed light on this
controversial question, Ariyachandra and Watson (2006b) conducted an empirical study.
To collect the data, they used a Web-based survey targeted at individuals involved in
data warehouse implementatio ns. Their survey included questions about the respondent,
the respondent's company, the company's data warehouse, and the success of the data
warehouse architecture.
In total, 454 respondents provided usable info rmation. Surveyed companies ranged
from small (less than $10 million in revenue) to large (in excess of $10 billion). Most of the
companies were located in the United States (60%) and represented a variety of industries,
with the financial services industty (15%) providing the most responses. The predominant
architecture was the hub-and-spoke architecture (39%), followed by the bus architecture
(26%), the centralized architecture (17%), independent data marts (12%), and the federated
architecture C4%). The most common platform for hosting the data warehouses was Oracle
(41%), followed by Microsoft (19%), and IBM (18%). The average (mean) gross revenue varied from $3.7 billion for independent data marts to $6 billion for the federated architecture.
They used four measures to assess the success of the architectures: (1) information
quality, (2) system quality, (3) individual impacts, and (4) organizational impacts. The
questions used a seven-point scale, with the higher score indicating a more successful
architecture. Table 3.1 shows the average scores for the measures across the architectures.
As the results of the study indicate, independent data marts scored the lowest on
all measures. This finding confirms the conventio nal wisdom that independent data marts
are a poor architectural solution. Next lowest on all measures was the federated architecture. Firms sometimes have disparate decision support platforms resulting from mergers
and acquisitions, a nd they may ch oose a federated approach, at least in the short run.
The findings suggest that the federated architecture is not an optimal long-term solution.
What is interesting, however, is the similarity of the averages for the bus, hub-and-spoke,
and centt·alized architectures. The differences are sufficiently small that no claims can be
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
TABLE 3.1
Average Assessment Scores for the Success of the Architectures
Centralized
Architecture
(No Dependent
Data Marts)
Federated
Architecture
Independent
Data Marts
Bus
Architecture
Hub-and
Spoke
Architecture
Information Quality
4.42
5.16
5.35
5.23
4.73
System Quality
4.59
5.60
5.56
541
4.69
Individual Impacts
5.08
5.80
5.62
5.64
5.15
Organizational Impacts
4.66
5.34
5.24
5.30
4.77
made for a particular architecture's superiority over the others, at least based on a simple
comparison of these success measures.
They also collected data on the domain (e.g., varying from a subunit to companywide) and the size (i.e., amount of data stored) of the warehouses. They found that the
hub-and-spoke architecture is typically used with more enterprise-wide impleme ntations
and larger warehouses. They also investigated the cost and time required to implement
the different architectures. Overall, the hub-and-spoke architecture was the most expensive and time-consuming to implement.
SECTION 3.4 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the key similarities and differences between a two-tiered architecture and a
three-tiered architecture?
2. How has the Web influenced data warehouse design?
3. List the alternative data warehousing architectures discussed in this section.
4. What issues should be considered when deciding which architecture to use in developing a data warehouse? List the 10 most important factors.
5. Which data warehousing architecture is the best? Why?
3.5
DATA INTEGRATION AND THE EXTRACTION, TRANSFORMATION,
AND LOAD (Ell) PROCESSES
Global competitive pressures, demand for return on investment (ROI), management and
investor inquiry, and government regulations are forcing business managers to rethink
how they integrate and manage their businesses. A decision maker typically needs access
to multiple sources of data that must be integrated. Before data warehouses, data marts,
and BI software, providing access to data sources was a major, laborious process. Even
with modern Web-based data management tools, recognizing what data to access and
providing them to the decision maker is a nontrivial task that requires database specialists.
As data warehouses grow in size, the issues of integrating data grow as well.
The business analysis needs continue to evolve. Mergers and acquisitions, regulatory requirements, and the introduction of new channels can drive changes in BI requirements. In addition to historical, cleansed, consolidated, and point-in-time data, business
users increasingly demand access to real-time, unstructured, and/ or remote data. And
everything must be integrated with the contents of an existing data warehouse. Moreover,
access via PDAs and through speech recognition and synthesis is becoming more commonplace, further complicating integration issues (Edwards, 2003). Many integration projects involve enterprise-wide systems. Orovic (2003) provided a checklist of what works
and what does not work when attempting such a project. Properly integrating data from
97
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
various databases and other disparate sources is difficult. But when it is not done properly, it can lead to disaster in enterprise-wide systems such as CRM, ERP, and supply chain
projects (Nash, 2002).
Data Integration
Data integration comprises three major processes that, when correctly implemented,
permit data to be accessed and made accessible to an array of ETL and analysis tools and
the data warehousing environment: data access (i.e. , the ability to access and extract data
from any data source), data federation (i.e. , the integration of business views across multiple data stores), and change capture (based on the identification, capture, and delivery
of the changes made to enterprise data sources). See Application Case 3.3 for an example
of how BP Lubricant benefits from implementing a data warehouse that integrates data
Application Case 3.3
BP Lubricants Achieves BIGS Success
BP Lubricants established the BIGS program following recent merger activity to deliver globally consistent and transparent management information. As
well as timely business intelligence, BIGS provides
detailed, consistent views of performance across
functions such as finance, marketing, sales, and supply and logistics.
BP is o ne of the world's largest oil and petrochemicals groups. Part of the BP pie group, BP
Lubricants is an established leader in the global
automotive lubricants market. Perhaps best known
for its Castro! brand of oils, the business operates
in over 100 countries and employs 10,000 people.
Strategically, BP Lubricants is concentrating on further improving its customer focus and increasing its
effectiveness in automotive markets. Following recent
merger activity, the company is undergoing transformation to become more effective and agile and to
seize opportunities for rapid growth.
Challenge
Following recent merger actlVlty, BP Lubricants
wanted to improve the consistency, transparency, and
accessibility of management information and business
intelligence. In order to do so, it needed to integrate
data held in disparate source systems, without the
delay of introducing a standardized ERP system.
strategic initiative for management information and
business intelligence. At the heart of BIGS is Kalida,
an adaptive enterprise data warehousing solution for
preparing, implementing, operating, and managing
data warehouses.
Kalido's federated enterprise data warehousing solution supported the pilot program's complex data integration and diverse reporting requirements. To adapt to the program's evolving reporting
requirements, the software also enabled the underlying information architecture to be easily modified at high speed while preserving all information.
The system integrates and stores information from
multiple source systems to provide consolidated
views for:
• Marketing. Customer proceeds and margins for market segments with drill down to
invoice-level detail
• Sales. Sales invoice reporting augmented
with both detailed tariff costs and actual
payments
• Finance. Globally standard profit and loss,
balance sheet, and cash flow statements- with
audit ability; customer debt management supply and logistics; consolidated view of order
and movement processing across multiple ERP
platforms
Solution
Benefits
BP Lubricants implemented the pilot for its Business
Intelligence and Global Standards (BIGS) program, a
By improving the visibility of consistent, timely
data, BIGS provides the information needed to
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
assist the business in identifying a multitude of
business opportunities to maximize margins and/or
manage associated costs. Typical responses to the
benefits of consistent data resulting from the BIGS
pilot include:
• Identifies data quality issues and encourages
their resolution
• Improved ability to respond intelligently to
new business opportunities
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
• Improved consistency and transparency of
business data
• Easier, faster, and more flexible reporting
• Accommodatio n of both global and local
standards
• Fast, cost-effective, and flexible implementation cycle
• Minimal disruption of existing business processes and the day-to-day business
1. What is BIGS at BP Lubricants?
2. What were the challenges, the proposed solutio n, and the obtained results w ith BIGS?
Sources.- Kalido, "BP Lubricants Achieves BIGS, Key IT Solutions,"
http://www.kalido.com/ customer-stories/bp-plc.htm
(accessed on August 2013). Kalido, "BP Lubricants Achieves
BIGS Success," kalido.com/collateraVDocuments/English-US/
CS-BPo/420BIGS.pdf (accessed August 2013); and BP Lubricant
home page, bp.corn/lubricanthome.do (accessed August 2013).
from many sources. Some vendors, such as SAS Institute, Inc., have developed strong
data integration tools. The SAS enterprise data integration server includes customer data
integration tools that improve data quality in the integration process. The Oracle Bu siness
Intelligence Suite assists in integrating data as well.
A majo r purpose of a data warehouse is to integrate data from multiple systems.
Various integration technologies e nable data and metadata integratio n:
• Enterprise application integration (EAI)
• Service-oriented architecture (SOA)
• Enterprise information integratio n (Ell)
• Extraction , transformation, and load (ETL)
Enterprise application integration (EAi) provides a vehicle for pushing data
from source systems into the data warehouse. It involves integrating application functionality and is focused on sharing functionality (rather than data) across systems, thereby
enabling flexibility and reuse. Traditionally, EAI solutio ns have focused on enabling
application reuse at the application programming inte rface (API) level. Recently, EAI is
accomplished by using SOA coarse-grained services (a collection of business processes
or functions) that are well defined and documented. Using Web services is a specialized
way of implementing an SOA. EAI can be used to facilitate data acquisition directly into
a near-real-time data warehouse or to deliver decisions to the OLTP systems. There are
ma ny different approaches to and tools for EAI implementatio n .
Enterprise information integration (Ell) is an evolving tool space that promises
real-time data integration from a variety of sources, such as relational databases, Web
services, and multidimensional databases. It is a mechanism for pulling data from source
systems to satisfy a request for information. Ell tools use predefined metadata to p opulate
views that make integrated data appear relational to end users. XML may be the most
important aspect of Ell because XML allows data to be tagged e ither at creation time
or late r. These tags can be extended and modified to accommodate almost any area of
knowledge (see Kay, 2005).
Physical data integration has conventionally been the main mechanism for creating
an integrated view with data warehouses and data marts. With the advent of Ell tools (see
Kay, 2005), new virtual data integratio n patterns are feasible. Manglik and Mehra (2005)
99
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
discussed the benefits and constraints of new data integration patterns that can expand
traditional physical methodologies to present a comprehensive view for the enterprise.
We next turn to the approach for loading data into the warehouse: ETL.
Extraction, Transformation, and Load
At the heart of the technical side of the data warehousing process is extraction, transformation, and load (ETL). ETL technologies, which have existed for some time, are
instrumental in the process and use of data warehouses. The ETL process is an integral
component in any data-centric project. IT managers are often faced with challenges because
the ETL process typically consumes 70 percent of the time in a data-centric project.
The ETL process consists of extraction (i.e., reading data from one or more databases), transformation (i.e., converting the extracted data from its previous form into the
form in which it needs to be so that it can be placed into a data warehouse or simply
another database), and load (i.e., putting the data into the data warehouse). Transformation
occurs by using rules or lookup tables or by combining the data with other data. The three
database functions are integrated into one tool to pull data out of one or more databases
and p lace them into another, consolidated database or a data warehouse.
ET L tools also transport data between sources and targets, document how data
elements (e.g ., metadata) change as they move between source and target, exchange
metadata with other applications as needed, and administer all runtime processes and
operations (e.g., scheduling, error management, audit logs, statistics). ETL is extremely
important for data integration as well as for data warehousing. The purpose of the ETL
process is to load the warehouse with integrated and cleansed data . The data used in ETL
processes can come from any source: a mainframe application, an ERP application , a CRM
tool, a flat file, an Excel spreadsheet, or even a message queue. In Figure 3.9, we outline
the ETL process.
The process of migrating data to a data warehouse involves the extraction of data
from all relevant sources. Data sources may consist of files extracted from OLTP databases,
spreadsheets, personal databases (e.g., Microsoft Access), or external files . Typically, all
the input files are written to a set of staging tables, which are designed to facilitate the
load process. A data warehouse contains numerous business rules that define such things
as how the data will be used, summarization rules, standardization of encoded attributes,
and calculation rules. Any data quality issues pertaining to the source files need to be
corrected before the data are loaded into the data warehouse. One of the benefits of a
Transient
data source
Packaged
application
Legacy
system
~/~~
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Other
internal
applications
FIGURE 3.9 The Ell Process.
Transform
I Cleanse I
Data
warehouse
~-L-o-ad~~
Data
mart
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
well-designed data warehouse is that these rules can be stored in a metadata repository
and applied to the data warehouse centrally. This diffe rs from an OLTP approach, which
typically has data and business rules scattered throughout the system. The process of
loading data into a data warehouse can be performed either through data transformation
tools that provide a GUI to aid in the development and maintenance of business rules
or through more traditional methods, such as developing programs or utilities to load
the data warehouse, using programming languages such as PL/SQL, C++, Java, or .NET
Framework languages. This decision is not easy for organizations. Several issues affect
whether an organization will purchase data transformation tools or build the transformation process itself:
• Data transformation tools are expensive.
• Data transformation tools may have a long learning curve.
• It is difficult to measure how the IT organization is doing until it has learned to use
the data transformation tools.
In the long run, a transformation-tool approach should simplify the maintenance of
an organization's data warehouse. Transformation tools can also be effective in detecting
and scrubbing (i.e., removing any anomalies in the data) . OLAF and data mining tools rely
on how well the data are transformed.
As an example of effective ETL, Motorola, Inc. , uses ETL to feed its data warehouses.
Motorola collects information from 30 different procurement systems and sends it to
its global SCM data warehouse for analysis of aggregate company spending (see Songini,
2004).
Solomon (2005) classified ETL technologies into four categories: sophisticated, enabler, simple, and rudimentary. It is generally acknowledged that tools in the sophisticated
category will result in the ETL process being better documented and more accurately
managed as the data warehouse project evolves.
Even though it is possible for programmers to develop software for ETL, it is simpler
to use an existing ETL tool. The following are some of the important criteria in selecting
an ETL tool (see Brown, 2004):
• Ability to read from and write to an unlimited number of data source architectures
• Automatic capturing and delivery of metadata
• A history of conforming to open standards
• An easy-to-use interface for the developer and the functional user
Performing extensive ETL may be a sign of poorly managed data and a
fundamental lack of a coherent data management strategy. Karacsony (2006) indicated that there is a direct correlation between the exte nt of redundant data and the
number of ETL processes. When data are managed correctly as an enterprise asset,
ETL efforts are significantly reduced, and redundant data are completely eliminated.
This leads to huge savings in maintena nce and greater efficiency in new development while also improving data quality. Poorly designed ETL processes are costly to
maintain, change, and update. Consequently, it is crucial to make the proper choices
in terms of the technology and tools to use for developing and maintaining the ETL
process.
A number of packaged ETL tools are available. D atabase vendors currently offer ETL
capabilities that both enhance and compete with independent ETL tools. SAS acknowledges the importance of data quality and offers the industry's first fully integrated solution that merges ETL and data quality to transform data into strategic valuable assets.
Other ETL software providers include Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, Informatica, Embarcadero,
and Tibco. For additional information on ETL, see Golfarelli and Rizzi (2009), Karaksony
(2006), and Songini (2004).
101
102
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
SECTION 3.5 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Describe data integration.
2. Describe the three steps of the ETL process.
3. Why is the ETL process so important for data warehousing efforts?
3.6
DATA WAREHOUSE DEVELOPMENT
A data warehousing project is a major undertaking for any organization and is more
complicated than a simple, mainframe selection and implementation project because it
comprises and influences many departments and many input and output interfaces and it
can be part of a CRM business strategy. A data warehouse provides several benefits that
can be classified as direct and indirect. Direct benefits include the following:
• End users can perform extensive analysis in numerous ways.
• A consolidated view of corporate data (i.e., a single version of the truth) is possible.
• Better and more timely information is possible. A data warehouse permits information processing to be relieved from costly operational systems onto low-cost servers; therefore, many more end-user information requests can be processed more
quickly.
• Enhanced system performance can result. A data warehouse frees production
processing because some operational system reporting requirements are moved
to DSS.
• Data access is simplified.
Indirect benefits result from end users using these direct benefits. On the whole,
these benefits enhance business knowledge, present competitive advantage, improve customer service and satisfaction, facilitate decision making, and help in reforming business
processes; therefore, they are the strongest contributions to competitive advantage. (For
a discussion of how to create a competitive advantage through data warehousing, see
Parzinger and Fralick, 2001.) For a detailed discussion of how organizations can obtain
exceptional levels of payoffs, see Watson et al. (2002). Given the potential benefits that a
data warehouse can provide and the substantial investments in time and money that such
a project requires, it is critical that an organization structure its data warehouse project
to maximize the chances of success. In addition, the organization must, obviously , take
costs into consideratio n. Kelly (2001) described a ROI approach that considers benefits
in the categories of keepers (i.e., money saved by improving traditional decision support
functions) ; gatherers (i.e., money saved due to automated collection and dissemination
of information); and users (i.e. , money saved or gained from decisions made using the
data warehouse). Costs include those related to hardware, software, network bandwidth,
internal development, internal support, training, and external consulting. The net present value (NPV) is calculated over the expected life of the data warehouse. Because
the benefits are broken down approximately as 20 percent for keepers, 30 percent for
gatherers, and 50 percent for users, Kelly indicated that users should be involved in the
development process, a success factor typically mentioned as critical for systems that
imply change in an organization.
Application Case 3.4 provides an example of a data warehouse that was deve loped
and delivered inten se competitive advantage for the Hokuriku (Japan) Coca-Cola Bottling
Company. The system was so successful that plans are underway to expand it to encompass the more than 1 million Coca-Cola vending machines in Japan.
Clearly defining the business objective, gathering project support from management end users, setting reasonable time frames and budgets, and managing expectations
are critical to a successful data warehousing project. A data warehousing strategy is a
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
103
Application Case 3.4
Things Go Better with Coke's Data Warehouse
In the face of competitive pressures and consumer
demand, how does a successful bottling company
ensure that its vending machines are profitable? The
answer for Hokuriku Coca-Cola Bottling Company
(HCCBC) is a data warehouse and analytical software implemente d by Teradata Corp. HCCBC built
the system in response to a data warehousing system
developed by its rival, Mikuni. The data warehouse
collects not only historical data but also near-realtime data from each vending machine (viewed as
a store) that could be transmitted via wireless connection to headquarters. The initial phase of the
project was deployed in 2001. The data warehouse
approach provides detailed product information,
such as time and date of each sale, when a product sells out, whether someone was short-changed,
and whether the machine is malfunctioning. In each
case, an alert is triggered, and the vending machine
immediately reports it to the data center over a wireless transmission system. (Note that Coca-Cola in
the United States has used modems to link vending
machines to distributors for over a decade.)
In 2002, HCCBC conducted a pilot test and put
all its Nagano vending machines o n a wireless network to gather near-real-time point of sale (POS)
data from each one. The results were astounding
because they accurately forecasted demand and
identified problems quickly. Total sales immediately
increased 10 percent. In addition, due to the more
accurate machine servicing, overtime and other costs
decreased 46 percent. In additio n, each salesperson
was able to service up to 42 p ercent more vending
machines.
The test was so successful that planning began
to expand it to encompass the entire enterprise
(60,000 machines), using an active data warehouse.
Eventually, the data warehousing solution will ideally expand across corporate boundaries into the
entire Coca-Cola Bottlers network so that the more
than 1 million vending machines in Japan will be
networked, leading to immense cost savings and
higher revenue.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did Coca-Cola in Japan use data warehousing to improve its business processes?
2. What were the results of their enterprise active
data warehouse implementation?
Sources: Adapted from K. D. Schwartz, "Decisions at the Touch o f
a Button," Teradata Magazine, teradata.com/t/page/117774/
index.html (accessed June 2009); K. 0 . Schwartz, "Decisio ns at
the Touch of a Button," DSS Resources, March 2004, pp. 28-31 ,
dssresources .com/ cases/ coca-colaja pan/index.html
(accessed April 2006); and Te radata Corp., "Coca-Cola Japan
Puts the Fizz Back in Vending Machine Sales," teradata.com/t/
page/118866/index.html (accessed June 2009).
blueprint for the successful introduction of the data warehouse. The strategy should
describe where the company wants to go, why it wants to go there, and w hat it will do
when it gets the re . It needs to take into consideration the organization 's vision, structure,
and culture. See Matney (2003) for the steps that can help in developing a flexible and
efficie nt support strategy. When the plan and support for a data warehouse are established, the organization needs to examine data warehouse vendors. (See Table 3.2 for
a sample list of vendors; also see The Data Warehousing Institute [twdi.org] and DM
Review [information-management.com].) Many vendors provide software demos of
their data warehousing and BI products.
Data Warehouse Development Approaches
Many organizations need to create the data warehouses used for decision support. Two
competing approaches are employed. The first approach is that of Bill Inmon, who is
often called "the father of data warehousing." Inmon supports a top-down development
approach that adapts traditional relational database too ls to the develo pment needs of an
104
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
TABLE 3.2
Sample List of Data Warehousing Vendors
Vendor
Product Offerings
Business Objects (businessobjects.com)
A comprehensive set of business intelligence and data visualization software (now owned by SAP)
Computer Associates (cai.com)
Comprehensive set of data warehouse (DW) tools and products
DataMirror (datamirror.com)
DW administration, management, and performance products
Data Advantage Group (dataadvantagegroup.com)
Metadata software
Dell (dell.com)
DW servers
Embarcadero Technologies (embarcadero.com)
DW administration, management, and performance products
Greenplum (greenplum.com)
Data warehousing and data appliance solution provider (now
owned by EMC)
Harte-Hanks (harte-hanks.com)
Customer relationship management (CRM) products and services
HP (hp.com)
DW servers
Hummingbird Ltd. (hummingbird.com, now is a
subsidiary of Open Text.)
DW engines and exploration warehouses
Hyperion Solutions (hyperion.com, now an Oracle
company)
Comprehensive set of DW tools, products, and applications
IBM lnfoSphere (www-01.ibm.com/software/data/
infosphere/)
Data integration, DW, master data management, big data
products
Informatica (informatica.com)
DW administration, management, and performance products
Microsoft (microsoft.com)
DW tools and products
Netezza
DW software and hardware (DW appliance) provider (now
owned by IBM)
Oracle (including PeopleSoft and Siebel) (oracle.com)
DW, ERP, and CRM tools, products, and applications
SAS Institute (sas.com)
DW tools, products, and applications
Siemens (siemens.com)
DW servers
Sybase (sybase.com)
Comprehensive set of DW tools and applications
Teradata (teradata.com)
DW t ools, DW appliances, DW consultancy, and applications
enterprise-wide data warehouse, also known as the EDW approach. The second approach
is that of Ralph Kimball, who proposes a bottom-up approach that employs dimensional
modeling, also known as the data ma11 approach.
Knowing how these two models are alike and how they differ helps us understand
the basic data warehouse concepts (e.g., see Breslin, 2004). Table 3.3 compares the two
approaches. We describe these approaches in detail next.
Inmon's approach emphasizes top-dow n
development, employing established database development methodologies and tools,
such as entity-relationship diagrams (ERD), and an adjustment of the spiral development
approach . The EDW approach does not preclude the creation of data marts. The EDW is
the ideal in this approach because it provides a consistent and comprehensive view of the
enterprise. Murtaza 0998) presented a framework for developing EDW.
THE INMON MODEL: THE EDW APPROACH
Kimball's data mart strategy is a "plan
big, build small" approach. A data mart is a subject-oriented or department-oriented data
warehouse. It is a scaled-down version of a data warehouse that focuses o n the requests
THE KIMBALL MODEL: THE DATA MART APPROACH
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
TABLE 3.3
105
Contrasts Between the Data Mart and EDW Development Approaches
Effort
Data Mart Approach
EDW Approach
Scope
One subject area
Several subject areas
Development time
Months
Years
Development cost
$10,000 to $100,000+
$1,000,000+
Development difficulty
Low to medium
High
Data prerequisite for sharing
Common (within business area)
Common (across enterprise)
Sources
Only some operational and external systems
Many operational and external systems
Size
Megabytes to several gigabytes
Gigabytes to petabytes
Time horizon
Near-current and historical data
Historical data
Data transformations
Low to medium
High
Update frequency
Hou rly, daily, weekly
Weekly, monthly
Workstations and departmental servers
Enterprise servers and mainframe computers
Operating system
Windows and Linux
Unix, l./05, 05/ 390
Databases
Workgroup or standard database servers
Enterprise database servers
10s
1OOs to 1,000s
Technology
Hardware
Usage
Number of simultaneous
users
User types
Business area analysts and managers
Enterprise analysts and senior executives
Business spotlight
Optimizing activities within
the business area
Cross-functional optimization and decision
making
Sources: Adapted fro m J. Van d en Hove n, "Data Marts: Plan Big, Build Small," in JS Management Handbook, 8th ed ., CRC Press, Boca
Raton, FL, 2003; and T. Ariyachandra and H. Watson, "Which Data Warehouse Architecture Is Most Successful?" Business I ntelligence
Journal, Vol. 11, No. 1, First Quarter 2006, pp. 4-6.
of a specific department, such as marketing or sales. This model applies dimensional data
modeling, which starts w ith tables. Kimball advocated a development methodology that
entails a bottom-up approach, which in the case of data warehouses means building one
data mart at a time.
There is no one-size-fits-all strategy to data warehousing. An
enterprise's data warehousing strategy can evolve from a simple data mart to a complex
data warehouse in response to user demands, the e nterprise's business requireme nts, and
the enterprise's maturity in managing its data resources. For many enterprises, a data mart
is frequently a convenient first step to acquiring experience in constructing and managing a data warehouse while presenting business users with the benefits of better access
to their data; in addition, a data mart commonly indicates the business value of data
warehousing. Ultimately, engineering an EDW that consolidates old data marts and data
warehouses is the ideal solution (see Application Case 3.5). However, the development
of individual data marts can often provide many benefits along the way toward developing an EDW, especially if the organization is unable or unwilling to invest in a large-scale
project. Data marts can also demonstrate feasibility and success in providing benefits.
This could potentially lead to an investment in an EDW. Table 3.4 summarizes the most
essential characteristic differences between the two models.
WHICH MODEL IS BEST?
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 3.5
Starwood Hotels & Resorts Manages Hotel Profitability with Data Warehousing
Sta1wood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide, Inc., is one of
the leading hotel and leisure companies in the world
with 1,112 properties in nearly 100 countries and
154,000 employees at its owned and managed properties. Starwood is a fully integrated owner, operator
and franchisor of hotels, resorts, and residences with
the following internationally renowned brands: St.
Regis®, The Luxury Collection®, W®, Westin®, Le
Meridien®, Sheraton®, Four Points® by Sheraton,
Aloft®, and ElementSM. The Company boasts one
of the industry's leading loyalty programs, Starwood
Preferred Guest (SPG), allowing members to earn
and redeem points for room stays, room upgrades,
and flights, with no blackout dates. Starwood also
owns Starwood Vacation Ownership Inc., a premier provider of world-class vacation experiences
through villa-style resorts and privileged access to
Starwood brands.
Challenge
Sta1wood Hotels has significantly increased the number of hotels it operates over the past few years
through global corporate expansion , particularly in
the Asia/ Pacific region. This has resulted in a dramatic rise in the need for business critical information about Starwood's hotels and customers. All
Starwood hotels globally use a single enterprise data
warehouse to retrieve information critical to efficient
hotel management, such an that regarding revenue,
central reservations, and rate p lan rep01ts. In addition, Starwood Hotels' management runs important
daily operating repo1ts from the data warehouse for
a wide range of business functions. Starwood's enterprise data warehouse spans almost all areas within
the company, so it is essential not only for centralreservation and consumption information, but also to
Sta1wood's loyalty program, which relies on all guest
information, sales information, corporate sales information, customer service, and other data that managers, analysts, and executives depend on to make
operational decisions.
The company is committed to knowing and servicing its guests, yet, "as data growth and demands
grew too great for the company's legacy system, it
was falling short in delivering the information hotel
managers and administrators required on a daily
basis, since central reservation system (CRS) reports
could take as long as 18 hours," said Richard Chung,
Starwood Hotels' director of data integration. Chung
added that hotel managers would receive the transient pace report- which presents market-segmented
information on reservations-5 hours later than it
was needed. Such delays prevented managers from
adjusting rates appropriately, which could result in
lost revenue.
Solution and Results
After reviewing several vendor offerings, Starwood
Hotels selected Oracle Exadata Database Machine
X2-2 HC Full Rack and Oracle Exadata Database
Machine X2-2 HP Full Rack, nmning on Oracle Linux.
"With the implementation of Exadata, Starwood
Hotels can complete extract, transform, and load
(ETL) operations for operational reports in 4 to 6
hours, as opposed to 18 to 24 hours previously, a
six-fold improvement," Chung said. Real-time feeds,
which were not possible before, now allow transactions to be posted immediately to the data warehouse, and users can access the changes in 5 to 10
minutes instead of 24 hours, making the process up
to 288 times faster.
Accelerated data access allows all Starwood
properties to get the same, up-to-date data needed
for their reports, globally. Previously, hotel managers
in some areas could not do same-day or next-day
analyses. There were some locations that got fresh
data and others that got older data. Hotel managers,
worldwide, now have up-to-date data for their hotels,
increasing efficiency and profitability, improving customer service by making sure rooms are available
for premier customers, and improving the company's
ability to manage room occupancy rates. Additional
reporting tools, such as those used for CRM and sales
and catering, also benefited from the improved processing. Other critical reporting has benefited as well.
Marketing campaign management is also more efficient now that managers can analyze results in days
or weeks instead of months.
"Oracle Exadata Database Machine enables
us to move forward with an environment that provides our hotel managers and corporate executives
with near-real-time information to make optimal
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
107
business decisio ns and provide ideal amenities for
our guests." -Gordon Light, Business Re latio nship
Manager, Starwood Hotels & Resorts Wo rldw ide,
Inc.
2. How did Starwood Hotels & Resorts u se data
warehousing for better profitability?
3. What were the challenges, the proposed solution, and the obtained results?
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
Source: O racle custo mer success story, www.oracle.com/us/
corporate/customers/customersearch/starwood-hotels-1exadata-sl-1855106.html; Starwood Hotels and Resorts,
starwoodhotels.com (accessed July 2013).
1. How big and complex are the business op eratio ns of Starwood Hotels & Resorts?
Additional Data Warehouse Development Considerations
Some o rganizations want to comple te ly o utsource the ir d ata wareh ousing effo rts. They
simply do not want to deal w ith software and hardware acquisitio ns, a nd they do
no t want to manage the ir informatio n syste ms. One alte rnative is to use hosted data
wareho uses. In this scenario , anothe r firm-i deally, o ne that has a lot of exp erie nce
TABLE 3.4
Essential Differences Between lnmon's and Kimball's Approaches
Characteristic
Inmon
Kimball
Overall approach
Top-dow n
Bottom-up
Architecture structure
Enterprise-wide (atomic) dat a
w arehouse "feeds" departmental
databases
Data marts model a single business process,
and ent erprise consist ency is achieved through
a data bus and conformed dimensions
Complexity of the method
Quite complex
Fai rly simple
Comparison w ith established
development methodologies
Derived from the spiral methodology
Four-step process; a departure from relational
dat abase management system (RDBM S)
methods
Discussion of physical design
Fairly thorough
Fairly light
Data orientation
Subject or data driven
Process oriented
Tools
Traditional (entity-relationship diagrams
[ERD], data flow diagrams [DFD])
Dimensional modeling; a departure fro m
relat ional modeling
End-user accessibility
Low
High
Primary audience
IT professionals
End users
Place in the organization
Integral part of t he corporat e
information factory
Transformer and retainer of operational data
Objective
Deliver a sound technical solution
based on proven database methods
and technologies
Deliver a solution that makes it easy for end
users t o directly query t he data and still get
reasonable response times
Methodology and
Architecture
Data Modeling
Philosophy
Sources: Adapted fro m M. Breslin, "Data Ware housing Battle of tl1e Giants: Comparing the Basics o f Kimball and Inmon Models," Business
Intelligence j ournal, Vol. 9, No. 1, Winte r 2004, pp. 6-20; and T. Ariyachandra and H . Watson, "Which Data Warehouse Architecture Is
Most Successful?" Business Intelligence j ournal, Vol. 11, No. 1, First Quarte r 2006.
108
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 3.1
Hosted Data Warehouses
A hosted data warehouse has nearly the same, if not more, functionality as an on-site data warehouse, but it does not consume computer resources on client premises. A hosted data wareh ouse
offers the benefits of BI minus the cost of computer upgrades, network upgrades, software
licenses, in-house development, and in-house suppoI1 and maintenance.
A hosted data warehouse offers the following benefits:
• Requires minimal investment in infrastructure
• Frees up capacity on in-house systems
• Frees up cash flow
• Makes powerful solutions affordable
• Enables powerful solutions that provide for growth
• Offers better quality equipment and software
• Provides faster connections
• Enables users to access data from remote locations
• Allows a company to focus on core business
• Meets storage needs for large volumes of data
Despite its benefits, a hosted data warehouse is not necessarily a good fit for every organization. Large companies with revenue upwards of $500 million could lose money if they already
have underused internal infrastructure and IT staff. Fwthermore, companies that see the paradigm shift of outsourcing applications as loss of control of their data are not likely to use a
business intelligence service provider (BISP). Finally, the most significant and common argument
against implementing a hosted data warehouse is that it may be unwise to outsource sensitive
applications for reasons of security and privacy.
Sources: Compiled from M. Thornton a nd M. Lampa, "Hoste d Data Warehouse,"Journal of Data Warehousing,
Vol. 7, No. 2, 2002, pp. 27-34; and M. Thornton, "What About Security? The Most Common, but Unwarranted,
Obje ction to Hosted Data Warehouses," DM Review, Vol. 12, No. 3, March 18, 2002, pp. 30-43.
a nd expertise-develops and maintains the data warehouse. However, there are
security a nd privacy con cerns w ith this approach. See Technology Insig hts 3.1 for
some details.
Representation of Data in Data Warehouse
A typical data warehouse structure is shown in Figure 3.3. Many variatio ns of data warehouse architecture are possible (see Figure 3.7). No m atter what the architecture was,
the design of data representation in the data warehou se h as always been based o n the
concept of dime ns io na l mode ling. Dimensional modeling is a retrieval-based system
that supports high-volume query access. Representation and storage of data in a data
warehouse should be designed in su ch a way that not o nly accommodates but also
boosts the processing of complex multidimensional queries. Often, the star schema and
the snowflakes schema are the means by which dimensional modeling is implemented in
data warehouses.
The star schema (sometimes referenced as star join schema) is the most commonly
used and the simplest style o f dimensional m odeling. A star schema contain s a central fact
table surrounded by and connected to several dimension tables (Adam son , 2009). The
fact table contains a large number o f rows that correspond to observed facts and external
links (i.e. , foreign keys). A fact table con tains the descriptive attributes needed to perform
decision analysis and query reporting , a nd foreign keys are used to link to d ime nsion
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
tables. The decision analysis attributes consist of performance measures, operational metrics, aggregated measures (e.g., sales volumes, customer retention rates, profit margins,
production costs, crap rates, and so forth), and all the other metrics needed to analyze the
organization's performance. In other words, the fact table primarily addresses what the
data warehouse supports for decision analysis.
Surrounding the central fact tables (and linked via foreign keys) are dimension
tables. The dimension tables contain classification and aggregation information about the
central fact rows. Dimension tables contain attributes that describe the data contained
within the fact table ; they address how data will be analyzed and summarized. Dimension
tables have a one-to-many relationship with rows in the central fact table. In que1y ing,
the dimensions are used to slice and dice the numerica l values in the fact table to address
the requirements of an ad hoc information need. The star schema is designed to provide
fast query-response time, simplicity, and ease of maintenance for read-only database
structures. A simple star schema is shown in Figure 3.10a. The star schema is considered
a special case of the snowflake schema.
The snowflake sche m a is a logical arrangement of tables in a multidimensional
database in such a way that the entity-relationship diagram resembles a snowflake in
shape. Closely related to the star schema, the snowflake schema is represented by centralized fact tables (usually only one) that are connected to multiple dimensions. In the snowflake schema, however, dimensions are normalized into multiple related tables whereas
the star schema's dimensions are denormalized with each dimension being represented
by a single table. A simple snowflake schema is shown in Figure 3.10b.
Analysis of Data in the Data Warehouse
Once the data is properly stored in a data warehouse , it can be used in various ways to
support organizational decision making. OLAF (online analytical processing) is arguably
the most commonly used data analysis technique in data warehouses, and it has been
growing in popularity due to the exponential increase in data volumes and the recognition of the business value of data-driven analytics. Simply, OLAF is an approach to quickly
answer ad hoc questions by executing multidimensional analytical queries against organizational data repositories (i.e ., data warehouses, data marts).
(a) Star Schema
Dimension
time
I Quarter
I
-
-
I
Fact table
sales
Dimension
~
I UnitsSold
r+
I
--
people
I Division
I
(bl Snowflake Schema
Dimension
product
I Brand
Dimension
month
I M_Name
I
Dimension
quarter
Q_Name
I
I
ri
lf
Dimension
date
I Date
I
Fact table
sales
-- -I UnitsSold
Dimension
I
LJ
1
I
I
Dimension
category
I Category
I
I
I Country
-
- I
-
geography
f--
Dimension
product
I Lineltem
Dimension
brand
Brand
Dimension
people
I Division
I
Dimension
store
I LoclD
-
-
I-+
I
Dimension
location
I State
~
FIGURE 3.10
(a) The Star Schema, and (b) the Snowflake Schema.
I
109
110
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
OLAP Versus OLTP
OLTP (online transaction processing system) is a term used for a transaction system,
which is primarily responsible for capturing and storing data related to day-to-day business functions such as ERP, CRM, SCM, point of sale, and so forth. The OLTP system
addresses a critical business need, automating daily business transactions and running
real-time reports and routine analyses. But these systems are not designed for ad hoc
analysis and complex queries that deal with a number of data items. OLAP, on the other
hand, is designed to address this need by providing ad hoc analysis of organizational data
much more effectively and efficiently. OLAP and OLTP rely heavily on each other: OLAP
uses the data captures by OLTP, and OLTP automates the business processes that are
managed by decisions supported by OLAP. Table 3.5 provides a multi-criteria comparison
between OLTP and OLAP.
OLAP Operations
The main operational stmcture in OLAP is based on a concept called cube. A cube in
OLAP is a multidimensional data structure (actual or virtual) that allows fast analysis of
data. It can also be defined as the capability of efficiently manipulating and analyzing data
from multiple perspectives. The arrangement of data into cubes aims to overcome a limitation of relational databases: Relational databases are not well suited for near instantaneous
analysis of large amounts of data. Instead, they are better suited for manipulating records
(adding, deleting, and updating data) that represent a series of transactions. Although
many report-writing tools exist for relational databases, these tools are slow when a multidimensional query that encompasses many database tables needs to be executed.
Using OLAP, an analyst can navigate through the database and screen for a particular subset of the data (and its progression over time) by changing the data's orientations and defining analytical calculations. These types of user-initiated navigation of data
through the specification of slices (via rotations) and drill down/ up (via aggregation and
disaggregation) is sometimes called "slice and dice." Commonly used OLAP operations
include slice and dice, drill down, roll up, and pivot.
• Slice. A slice is a subset of a multidimensional array (usually a two-dimensional
representation) corresponding to a single value set for one (or more) of the dimensions not in the subset. A simple slicing operation on a three-dimensional cube is
shown in Figure 3.11.
TABLE 3.5
A Comparison Between OLTP and OLAP
Criteria
OLTP
OLAP
Purpose
To carry out day-to-day business functions
To support decision making and provide answers
to business and management queries
Data source
Transaction database (a normalized data
repository primarily focused on efficiency
and consistency)
Data warehouse or data mart (a nonnormalized
data repository primarily focused on accuracy
and completeness)
Reporting
Routine, periodic, narrowly focused reports
Ad hoc, multidimensional, broadly focused
reports and queries
Resource
requirements
Ordinary relational databases
Multiprocessor, large-capacity, specialized
databases
Execution speed
Fast (recording of business transactions
and routine reports)
Slow (resource intensive, complex, large-scale
queries)
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
A three-dimensional
OLAP cube with
slicing
operations
Product
Ce/ls are filled
with numbers
representing
sales volumes
Sales volumes of
a specific product
on variable time
>,
.c
a.
[':'
Ol
a
QJ
(!)
Sales volumes of
a specific region
on variable time
and products
Sales volumes of
a specific time on
variable region
and products
FIGURE 3.11
Slicing Operations on a Simple Three-Dimensional Data Cube.
• Dice. The dice operation is a slice on more than two dimensions of a data cube.
• Drill Down/Up Drilling down or up is a specific OLAP technique whereby the
user navigates among levels of data ranging from the most summarized (up) to the
most detailed (down) .
• Roll-up. A roll-up involves computing all of the data relationships for one or more
dimensions. To do this, a computatio nal relationship or formula might be defined.
• Pivot: A pivot is a means of changing the dimensional orientation of a report or
ad hoc query-page display.
VARIATIONS OF OLAP OLAP has a few variations; among them ROLAP, MOLAP, and
HOLAP are the most common ones.
ROLAP stands for Relational Online Analytical Processing. ROLAP is an alternative
to the MOLAP (Multidimensional OLAP) technology. Although both ROLAP and MOLAP
analytic tools are designed to allow analysis of data through the use of a multidimensional
data model, ROLAP differs significantly in that it does not require the precomputation
and storage of information. Instead, ROLAP tools access the data in a re lational database
and generate SQL queries to calculate information at the appropriate level w hen an end
user requests it. With ROLAP, it is possible to create additional database tables (summary
tables or aggregations) that summarize the data at any desired combination of dimensions.
While ROLAP uses a relational database source, generally the database must be carefully
designed for ROLAP use. A database that was designed for OLTP will not function well as
a RO LAP database. Therefore, RO LAP still involves creating an additiona l copy of the data.
111
112
Part II • Descriptive Analytics
MOLAP is an alternative to the ROLAP technology. MOLAP differs from ROLAP
significantly in that it requires the precomputation and storage of information in the
cube-the operation known as preprocessing. MOLAP stores this data in an optimized
multidime nsio nal array storage, rather than in a relational database (which is often the
case for ROLAP).
The undesirable trade-off between ROLAP and MOLAP w ith regards to the additional ETL (extract, transform, and load) cost and slow query performance has led to
inquiries for better approaches where the pros and cons of these two approaches are
optimized. These inquiries resulted in HOLAP (Hybrid Online Analytical Processing),
w hich is a combinatio n of ROLAP and MOLAP. HOLAP allows storing p art of the data in
a MOLAP store and another part of the data in a ROLAP store. The degree of control that
the cube designer has over this partitioning varies from product to product. Technology
Insights 3.2 provides an opportunity for conducting a simple hands-on analysis w ith the
MicroStrategy BI tool.
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 3.2
with MicroStrategy
Hands-On Data Warehousing
MicroStrategy is the leading indepe ndent provider of business intelligence, data warehousing
performance management, and business reporting solutions. The other big players in this market
were recently acquired by large IT firms: Hyperion was acquired by Oracle; Cognos was acquired
by IBM; and Business Objects was acquired by SAP. Despite these recent acquisitio ns, the business intelligence and data warehousing market remains active, vibrant, and full of opportunities.
Following is a step-by-step approach to using MicroStrategy software to analyze a hypothetical business situation. A more comprehensive version of this hands-on exercise can be
fou nd at the TUN We b site . According to this hypothetical scenario, you (the vice president of
sales at a global telecommunications company) are planning a business visit to the European
region. Before meeting with the regio nal salespeople on Monday, you want to know the sale
representatives' activities for the last quarter (Quarter 4 of 2004). You are to create such an
ad hoc report using MicroStrategy's Web access. In order to create this and many other OLAF
reports, you w ill need the access code for the TeradataUniversityNetwork.com Web site. It
is free of charge for educational use and only your professor will be able to get the necessary
access code for you to utilize not only MicroStrategy software but also a large collection of other
business intelligence resources at this site.
Once you are in TeradataUniversityNetwork, you need to go to "APPLY & DO" and select
"MicroStrategy BI" from the "Software" section. On the "MicroStrategy/ BI" Web page, follow
these steps:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Click on the link for "MicroStrategy Application Modules." This w ill lead you to a page that
shows a list of previously built MicroStrategy applications.
Select the "Sales Force Analysis Module. " This module is designed to provide you w ith indepth insight into the e ntire sales p rocess. This insight in turn allows you to increase lead
conversions, optimize product lines, take advantage of your organization's most successful
sales practices, and improve your sales organizatio n's effectiveness.
In the "Sales Force Analysis Module " site you w ill see three sections: View, Create, and
Tolls. In the View section, click on the link for "Shared Reports." This link will take you to
a place where a number of previously created sales reports are listed for everybody's use.
In the "Shared Reports" page, click on the folder named "Pipeline Analysis." Pipeline
Analysis reports provide insight into all open opportunities and deals in the sales p ipeline.
These reports measure the current status of the sales pipeline, detect changing trends and
key events, and identify key open opportunities. You want to review what is in the pipeline for each sales rep, as well as whether o r not they hit their sales quota last quarter.
In the "Pipeline Analysis" page, click on the report named "Current Pipeline vs. Quota by
Sales Regio n and District. " This report presents the current pipeline status for each sales
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing 113
district within a sales region. It also projects whether target quotas can be achieved for the
current quarter.
6. In the "Current Pipeline vs. Quota by Sales Region and District" page, select (with single
click) "2004 Q4" as the report parameter, indicating that you want to see how the representatives performed against their quotas for the last quarter.
7. Run the report by clicking on the "Run Report" button at the bottom of the page. This will
lead you to a sales report page where the values for each Metric are calculated for all three
European sales regions. In this interactive report, you can easily change the region from
Europe to United States or Canada using the pull-down combo box, or you can drill-in
one of the three European regions by simply clicking on the appropriate region's heading
to see more detailed analysis of the selected region.
SECTION 3.6 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. List the benefits of d ata warehouses.
2. List several criteria for selecting a d ata warehouse vendor, and describe w hy they are
important.
3. What is OLAP and how d oes it differ fro m OLTP?
4. What is a cube? What d o drill down , roll up, and slice and dice mean?
5. What are ROLAP, MOLAP, and HOLAP? How do they d iffer fro m OLAF?
3.7
DATA WAREHOUSING IMPLEMENTATION ISSUES
Implem enting a data warehouse is gene rally a m assive effo rt that must be planne d and
execute d according to established m etho ds . Howeve r, the p roject life cycle has many
facets, and no single person can be an expert in each area. Here we discuss specific ideas
and issues as they relate to d ata warehousing .
People want to know how su ccessful their BI and data warehousing initiatives
are in comparison to those o f other companies. Ariyachandra and Watson (2006a) p roposed some benchmarks for BI and d ata warehousing success. Watson et al. 0999)
researched data warehouse failures. The ir results showed that p eople d efine a "failure" in
different ways, and this w as confirme d by Ariyachandra and Watson (2006a). The Data
Wareh ousing Institute (tdwi.org) has developed a data ware housing maturity mo del
that an enterprise can apply in o rder to benchmark its evolution . The model offers a fast
me ans to gauge w here the o rganizatio n 's data wareho using initiative is now and where
it needs to go next. The m aturity m o del consists of six stages: prenatal, infant, ch ild,
teenager, adult, and sage. Business value rises as the data warehouse progresses th rough
each succeeding stage. The stages are identified by a number of characteristics, inclu ding
scope, analytic structure, executive p e rceptio ns, types of analytics, stewardship, funding,
techno logy platfo rm, change managem ent, and administration . See Eckerson et al. (2009)
and Eckerson (2003) for mo re details.
Data warehouse projects have m any risks. Most of them are also found in other IT
projects, but data warehousing risks are mo re serious because data ware hou ses are expensive, time-and-resource d emanding, la rge-scale projects . Each risk shou ld be assessed at
the inception of the p roject. Whe n develo ping a successful data warehouse, it is important
to carefully consider various risks and avoid the following issues:
• Starting with the wrong sponsorship chain. You need an executive sp onsor
w ho has influence over the necessary resources to suppo rt and invest in the data
ware ho use. You a lso need an executive p roject driver, someone w ho has earned
114 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
the respect of other executives, has a healthy skepticism about technology, and is
decisive but flexible. You also need an IS/ IT manager to head up the project.
• Setting expectations that you cannot meet. You do not want to frustrate executives at the moment of truth. Every data warehousing project has two phases:
Phase 1 is the selling phase, in which you internally market the project by selling
the benefits to those w ho have access to needed resources. Phase 2 is the struggle to
meet the expectations described in Phase 1. For a mere $1 to $7 million, hopefully,
you can de liver.
• Engaging in politically naive behavior. Do not simply state that a data warehouse will help managers make better decisions. This may imply that you feel they
have been making bad decisions until now. Sell the idea that they w ill be able to get
the information they need to help in decision making.
• Loading the warehouse with information just because it is available. Do
not let the data warehou se become a data landfill. This would unnecessarily slow
the use of the system. There is a trend toward real-time computing and analysis.
Data warehouses must be shut down to load data in a timely way.
• Believing that data warehousing database design is the same as transactional database design. In general, it is not. The goal of data warehousing is to
access aggregates rather than a single or a few records, as in transaction-processing
systems. Content is also different, as is evident in how data are organized. DBMS
tend to be no nredundant, normalized, and relational, whereas data warehouses are
redundant, not normalized, and multidimensional.
• Choosing a data warehouse manager who is technology oriented rather
than user oriented. One key to data warehouse success is to understand that the
users must get what they need, not advanced technology for technology's sake.
• Focusing on traditional internal record-oriented data and ignoring the
value of external data and of text, images, and, perhaps, sound and
video. Data come in many formats and must be made accessible to the right people at the right time and in the right format. They must be cataloged properly.
• Delivering data with overlapping and confusing definitions. Data cleansing is a critical aspect of data warehousing. It includes reconciling conflicting data
definitions and formats o rganization-w ide . Politically, this may be difficult because
it involves change, typically at the executive level.
• Believing promises of performance, capacity, and scalability. Data warehouses generally require more capacity and speed than is originally budgeted for.
Plan ahead to scale up.
• Believing that your problems are over when the data warehouse is up and
running. DSS/ BI projects tend to evolve continually. Each deployment is an iteration
of the prototyping process. There will always be a need to add more and different data
sets to the data warehouse, as well as additional analytic tools for existing and additio nal groups of decision makers. High energy and annual budgets must be planned for
because success breeds success. Data warehousing is a continuous process.
• Focusing on ad hoc data mining and periodic reporting instead of
alerts. The natural progression of informatio n in a data warehouse is (1) extract
the data from legacy systems, cleanse them, and feed them to the warehouse; (2)
support ad hoc reporting until you learn what people want; and (3) convert the ad
hoc reports into regularly scheduled reports. This process of learning w hat people
want in order to provide it seems natural, but it is not optimal or even practical.
Managers are busy and need time to read reports. Alert systems are better than
periodic reporting systems and can make a data warehouse mission critical. Alert
systems monitor the data flowing into the warehouse and inform all key people who
have a need to know as soon as a critical event occurs.
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
115
In many organizations, a data warehouse will be successful only if there is strong
senior management support for its development and if there is a project champion who
is high up in the organizational chart. Although this would likely be true for any largescale IT project, it is especially important for a data warehouse realization. The successful
implementation of a data warehouse results in the establishment of an architectural framework that may allow for decision analysis throughout an organization and in some cases
also provides comprehensive SCM by granting access to information on an organization's
customers and suppliers. The implementation of Web-based data warehouses (sometimes
called Webhousing) has facilitated ease of access to vast amounts of data, but it is difficult to determine the hard benefits associated with a data warehouse. Hard benefits are
defined as benefits to an organization that can be expressed in monetary terms. Many
organizations have limited IT resources and must prioritize projects. Management support
and a strong project champion can help ensure that a data warehouse project will receive
the resources necessary for successful implementation. Data warehouse resources can
be a significant cost, in some cases requiring high-end processors and large increases in
direct-access storage devices (DASD). Web-based data warehouses may also have special
security requirements to ensure that only authorized users have access to the data.
User participation in the development of data and access modeling is a critical success factor in data warehouse development. During data mode ling, expertise is required
to determine what data are needed, define business rules associated with the data, and
decide what aggregations and other calculations may be necessary. Access modeling is
needed to determine how data are to be re trieved from a data warehouse, and it assists in
the physical definition of the warehouse by helping to define which data require indexing. It may also indicate whether dependent data marts are needed to facilitate information retrieval. The team skills needed to develop and implement a data warehouse include
in-depth knowledge of the database technology and d evelopment tools used. Source systems and development technology, as mentioned previously, reference the many inputs
and the processes used to load and maintain a data warehouse.
Application Case 3.6 presents an excellent example for a large-scale implementation
of an integrated data warehouse by a state government.
Application Case 3.6
EDW Helps Connect State Agencies in Michigan
Through customer service, resource optimization,
and the innovative use of information and technology, the Michigan Department of Technology,
Management & Budget (DTMB) impacts every
area of government. Nearly 10,000 users in five
major departments, 20 agencies, and mo re than
100 bureaus rely on the EDW to do their jobs more
effectively and better serve Michigan residents. The
EDW achieves $1 million per business day in financial benefits.
The EDW helped Michigan achieve $200 million
in annual financial benefits within the Department of
Community Health alone, plus another $75 million
per year within the Department of Human Services
(DHS). These savings include program integrity benefits, cost avoidance due to improved outcomes,
sanction avoidance, operational efficiencies, and
the recovery of inappropriate payments within its
Medicaid program.
The Michigan DHS data warehouse (DW) provides unique and innovative information critical to
the efficient operation of the agency from both a
strategic and tactical level. Over the last 10 years,
the DW has yielded a 15:1 cost-effectiveness ratio.
Consolidated information from the DW now contributes to nearly every function of DHS, including
(Continued)
116
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 3.6
(Continued}
accurate delivery of and accounting for benefits
delivered to almost 2.5 million DHS public assistance clients.
Michigan has been ambitious in its attempts to
solve real-life problems through the innovative sharing and comprehensive analyses of data. Its approach
to BI/ DW has always been "enterprise" (statewide) in
nature, rathe r than having separate BI/DW platforms
for each business area or state agency. By removing barrie rs to sharing enterprise data across business
units, Michigan has leveraged massive amounts of
data to create innovative approaches to the use of
BI/DW, delivering efficient, re liable enterprise solutions using multiple channels.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why would a state invest in a large and expensive IT infrastructure (such as an EDW)?
2. What are the size and complexity of EDW u sed
by state agencies in Michigan?
3. What were the challe nges, the proposed solution, and the obtained results of the EDW?
Source: Compiled from TDWI Best Practices Awards 2012 Winner,
Ente rprise Data Warehousing, Gove rnme nt and Non-Profit
Category, "Michigan Departme nts o f Technology, Manage me nt
& Budget (DTMB), Community Health (OCH) , and Human
Se rvices (OHS)," featured in 7DWJ What Works, Vol. 34, p . 22;
a nd michigan.michigan.gov.
Massive Data Warehouses and Scalability
In additio n to flexibility, a data warehouse needs to support scalability. The main issues
pertaining to scalability are the am ount of data in the warehouse , how quickly the warehouse is expected to grow, the number of concurrent users, and the complexity of user
queries. A data wareho use must scale both horizontally and vertically. The warehouse will
grow as a function of data growth a nd the need to expand the warehouse to support new
business functionality. Data growth may be a result of the additio n of current cycle data
(e.g., this mo nth's results) and/ or historical data.
Hicks (2001) described huge databases and data warehouses. Walmart is continually
increasing the size of its massive data warehouse. Walmart is believed to use a warehouse
w ith hundreds of terabytes of data to study sales trends, track inventory, and perform
othe r tasks. IBM recently publicized its 50-terabyte warehouse benchmark (IBM, 2009).
The U.S. Department of Defe nse is using a 5-petabyte data warehouse and repository to
hold medical records for 9 million military personnel. Because of the storage requ ired to
archive its news footage, CNN also has a petabyte-sized data warehouse.
Given that the size of data wareho uses is expanding at an exponential rate, scalability is an important issue. Good scalability means that queries and othe r data-access functions will grow (ideally) linearly with the size of the warehouse. See Rosenberg (2006) for
approaches to improve query performance. In practice, specialized methods have been
developed to create scalable data warehouses. Scalability is difficult when managing hundreds of terabytes or more. Terabytes of data have considerable inertia, occupy a lot of
physical space, and require powerful computers. Some firms use paralle l processing, and
othe rs use clever indexing and search schemes to manage their data. Some spread their
data across different physical data stores. As more data warehouses approach the petabyte
size, better and better solutions to scalability continue to be developed.
Hall (2002) also addressed scalability issues. AT&T is an industry leader in deploying and using massive data warehouses. With its 26-terabyte data warehouse, AT&T can
detect fraudulent use of calling cards and investigate calls related to kidnappings and
othe r crimes. It can also compute millions of call-in votes from television viewers selecting the next Ame rican Idol.
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
For a sample of successful data warehousing implementations, see Edwards (2003).
Jukic and Lang (2004) examined the trends and sp ecific issues related to the use of offshore resources in the development and su p port of data warehou sing and BI applicatio ns. Davison (2003) indicated that IT-re lated offsho re outsourcing h ad been growing
at 20 to 25 percent pe r year. When conside ring offshoring data warehousing projects,
careful consideratio n must be given to culture and security (for details, see Ju kic and
Lang, 2004).
SECTION 3. 7 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the major DW implementation tasks that can be performed in parallel?
2. List and discuss the most pronounced DW implementatio n guidelines.
3. When developing a successful data wareho use, wh at are the most important risks and
issues to consider and p o tentially avoid?
4. What is scalability~ How does it apply to DW?
3.8
REAL-TIME DATA WAREHOUSING
Data warehousing and BI tools traditionally focus on assisting managers in making strategic and tactical decisions. Increased data volumes and accelerating update speeds are
fundamentally changing the role of the data warehou se in modern business. For many
businesses, making fast and consiste nt decisio ns across the ente rprise requires more than
a traditional data warehou se or data mart. Tradition al data warehouses are not business critical. Data are commo nly updated on a weekly basis, and this does not allow for
responding to transactio ns in near-real-time.
More data, coming in faste r and requiring immediate conversio n into decisions,
means that organizations are confronting the need for real-time data ware housing . This
is because decision support has become ope ratio nal, integrate d BI requires closed-loop
analytics, and yesterday's ODS w ill no t suppo rt existing re quirements.
In 2003, with the advent of real-time data warehousing, there was a shift toward
using these technologies for o peratio nal decisions . Real-time data warehousing
(RDW), also known as active data warehousing (ADW), is the p rocess of loading
and p roviding data via the data warehouse as they become available. It evolved from
the EDW concept. The active traits of an RDW/ ADW supplement and expand traditional
data warehouse functio ns into the realm of tactical decisio n making. People throughout
the organizatio n w ho interact directly with customers and suppliers will be empowered
with informatio n-based decision making at the ir fingertips. Even further leverage results
when an ADW provides information directly to custo mers and suppliers. The reach and
impact of information access for decision making can positively affect almost all aspects
of custome r service, SCM, logistics, and beyond. E-business has become a majo r catalyst
in the demand for active data wareho using (see Armstrong, 2000) . Fo r examp le, o nline
retailer Overstock.com, Inc. (overstock.com) connected data users to a real-time data
warehouse. At Egg pie, the world's largest purely online bank, a customer data warehouse
is refreshed in near-real-time . See Applicatio n Case 3.7.
As business needs evolve , so do the re quireme nts of the data warehouse. At this
basic level, a data warehouse simply rep orts w hat h appened. At the next level, some
analysis occurs. As the system evolves, it p rovides prediction capabilities, w hich lead
to the next level of operationalization. At its highest evolutio n , the ADW is capable of
making events happen (e.g., activities such as creating sales and marketing campaigns o r
ide ntifying and exploiting opportunities). See Figure 3.12 for a graphic descriptio n of this
evolutio nary process. A recent survey on managing evolutio n of data warehouses can be
found in Wrem bel (2009).
117
118 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 3.7
Egg Pie Fries the Competition in Near Real Time
Egg pie, now a p art of Yorkshire Building Society
(egg.com) is the world's largest online bank. It provides banking, insurance, investments, and mortgages to more than 3.6 millio n customers through its
Internet site. In 1998, Egg selected Sun Microsystems
to create a reliable, scalable, secure infrastructure to
suppo rt its more than 2.5 million daily transactions.
In 2001, the system was upgraded to eliminate
latency problems. This new customer data warehouse (CDW) use d Sun, Oracle, and SAS software
products. The initial data warehouse had about 10
terabytes of data and used a 16-CPU server. The system provides near-real-time data access. It provides
data warehouse and data mining services to inte rnal users, and it provides a requisite set of customer data to the customers themselves. Hundreds
of sales and marketing campaigns are constructed
u sing near-real-time data (within several minutes).
And better, the system enables faster decisio n m aking about sp ecific cu stomers and customer classes.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why kind of business is Egg pie in? What is the
competitive landscape?
2. How did Egg pie use near-real-time data warehousing for competitive advantage?
Sources: Compiled from "Egg's Customer Data Warehouse Hits the
Mark," DM Review, Vol. 15, No. 10, October 2005, pp. 24-28; Sun
Microsystems, "Egg Banks on Sun to Hit the Mark with Custom ers,"
September 19, 2005, sun.com/smi/Press/sunflash/2005-09/
sunflash.20050919.1.xml (accessed April 2006); and ZD Net UK,
"Sun Case Study: Egg's Customer Data Warehouse," whitepapers.
zdnet.co.uk/0,39025945 ,60159401p-39000449q,00.htm
(accessed June 2009).
Enter prise Decisioning
Management
Real-Time Decisioning
Applications
~----~
Predictive
Models
.1
~
a.
Segmentation
and Profiles
E
0
u
"O
C
"O
C1I
0
.
:i
0
3:
REPORTING
WHAT
happened?
Primarily
Batch and
Some Ad Hoc
Reports
Increase in
Ad Hoc
Analysis
OPERATIONALIZING
WHAT IS
happening now?
PREDICTING
WHAT WILL
happen?
Event-Based
Triggering Takes Hold
ANALYZING
WHY
did it happen?
C1I
ACTIVATING
MAKE it happen!
Analytical
Modeling
Grows
Continuous
Update and TimeSensitive Queries
Become
Important
Batch
OAd Hoc
•Analytics
D Continuous Update/Short Queries
• Event-Based Triggering
Data Sophistication
FIGURE 3.12
Enterprise Decision Evolution.
Source: Courtesy of Teradata Corporation. Used with permission.
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
Active Access
Front-Line operational
decisions or services
supported by NRT access;
Service Level Agreements of
5 seconds or less
Active Load
Intra-day data acquisition;
Mini-batch to near-real-time
[NRTJ trickle data feeds
measured in minutes or
seconds
Active Event s
Proactive monitoring of
business activity initiating
intelligent actions based on
rules and context; to
systems or users supporting
an operational business
process
FIGURE 3.13
The Teradata Active EDW.
Active W orkload
Management
Dynamically manage system
resources for optimum
performance and resource
utilization supporting a
mixed-workload environment
Active Enterprise
Integration
Integration into the
Enterprise Architecture for
delivery of intelligent
decisioning services
Active Availability
Business Continuity to
support the requirements of
the business
[up to 7 x 24)
Source: Courtesy of Teradata Corporation. Used w ith permission.
Teradata Corporatio n provides the baseline requirements to suppo rt an EDW. It also
provides the new traits of active data warehousing required to deliver data freshness, performance, and availability and to enable enterprise decisio n management (see Figure 3.13
for an example).
An ADW offers an integrated informatio n repository to d rive strategic and tactical
decisio n support w ithin an organizatio n. With real-time data warehousing, instead of
extracting o perational data from an OLTP system in nightly batches into an ODS, data
are assemb led from OLTP systems as and w hen events happen and are moved at o nce
into the data warehouse. This permits the instant upda ting of the data warehouse and the
elimination of an ODS. At this point, tactical and strategic q ueries can be made against the
RDW to use im mediate as well as historical data.
According to Basu (2003), the most distinctive difference between a traditio nal data
warehouse and an RDW is the shift in the data acquisition paradigm. Some of the business cases and ente rprise requirements that led to the need for data in real time include
the following:
• A business ofte n canno t afford to wait a whole day for its operational data to load
into the data warehouse for analysis.
• Until now, data warehouses have captured snapshots of an organization 's fixed
states instead of incremental real-time data showing every state change and almost
analogous patterns over time.
• With a traditio nal hub-and-spoke architecture , keeping the me tadata in sync is difficult. It is also costly to develop, maintain, and secure many systems as opposed to
o ne huge data warehouse so tha t data are centralized for Bl/BA tools.
• In cases of huge nightly batch loads, the necessary ETL setup and processing p ower
for large nightly data warehouse loading might be ve1y high, and the processes
might take too long. An EAi w ith real-time data collection can reduce or eliminate
the nightly batch processes.
119
120 Pan II • Descrip tive Analytics
Despite the benefits of an RDW, developing o ne can create its own set of issues.
These proble ms re late to architecture, data modeling, physical database design, storage
and scalability, and maintainability. In additio n , depending on exactly w hen data are
accessed , even down to the microsecond, different versio ns of the truth may be extracted
and created, w hich can confuse team members. For details, refer to Basu (2003) an d Terr
(2004).
Real-time solutions present a remarkable set of challenges to BI activities. Although
it is not ideal for all solutio ns, real-time data ware housing may be successful if the organization develops a sound methodo logy to handle p roject risks, incorporate proper p lanning, and focus o n quality assurance activities. Understanding the common challenges
and app lying best practices can reduce the exte nt of the problems that are often a p art
of implementing com plex data warehousing systems that incorporate Bl/BA methods.
Details and real im plementatio ns are discussed by Burdett and Singh (2004) and Wilk
(2003). Also see Akbay (2006) and Ericson (2006).
See Technology Insights 3.3 for some details o n how the real-time concept evolved.
The flight management dash board application at Continental Airlines (see the End-ofChapter Application Case) illustrates the p ower of real-time BI in accessing a data warehouse for use in face-to-face custo mer interaction situatio ns. The operatio ns staff uses the
real-time system to identify issues in the Continental flight network. As a nothe r example,
UPS invested $600 million so it could use real-time data and processes. The investment
was expected to cut 100 million delivery miles and save 14 millio n gallons of fuel annually by managing its real-time package-flow technologies (see Malykhina, 2003). Table 3.6
compares traditio nal and active data warehousing environments.
Real-time data warehousing, near- real-time data warehousing, zero-latency warehousing, and active data warehousing are different names used in practice to describe
the same concep t. Gonzales (2005) presented different definitions for ADW. According
to Gonzales, ADW is o nly one option that provides blended tactical and strategic data o n
demand. The architecture to build an ADW is very similar to the corporate informatio n
factory architecture developed by Bill Inmon. The o nly difference between a corporate
info rmatio n factory and a n ADW is the imp le mentatio n of both data stores in a single
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 3.3
Data Warehousing
The Real-Time Realities of Active
By 2003, the role of data warehousing in practice was growing rapidly. Real-time systems, though
a novelty, were the latest buzz, along with the major complications of providing data and informatio n instantaneously to those who need the m. Many expeits, including Peter Coffee, eWeek's
technology editor, believe that real-time systems must feed a real-time decision-making process.
Stephen Brobst, CTO of the Teradata division of NCR, ind icated that active data wareho using is a
process of evolutio n in how an enterp rise uses data. Active means that the data warehouse is also
used as an operational and tactical tool. Brobst provided a five-stage model that fits Coffee's
experie nce (2003) of how o rganizatio ns "grow " in their data utilization (see Brobst et al. , 2005).
These stages (and the questions they purpoit to answer) are repoiting (What happened?), an alysis
(Why d id it happen?), prediction (What will happen 1) , operationalizing (What is happening?), and
active warehousing (What do I want to happen?). The last stage, active warehousing, is w here the
greatest benefits may be obtained. Many organizations are enhancing centralized data warehouses
to serve both o peratio nal and strategic decisio n making.
Sources: Adapted from P. Coffee, '"Active' Warehousing," eWeek, Vol. 20, No. 25, June 23, 2003, p. 36; and
Teradata Corp., "Active Data Warehousing," teradata.com/active -data-warehousing/ (accessed August 2013).
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
TABLE 3.6
Comparison Between Traditional and Active Data Warehousing Environments
Traditional Data Warehouse Environment
Active Data Warehouse Environment
Strategic decisions only
Strategic and t actical decisions
Results sometimes hard to measure
Results measured with operat ions
Daily, weekly, monthly data currency
acceptable; summaries often appropriate
Only comprehensive detailed data available
wit hin minut es is acceptable
Moderate user concurrency
High number (1 ,000 or more) of users
accessing and querying the syst em
simultaneously
Highly restrictive reporting used to confirm
or check existing processes and patterns;
often uses predeveloped summary tables
or data marts
Flexible ad hoc reporting, as w ell as
machine-assisted modeling (e.g., data
mining) to discover new hypotheses
and relationships
Power users, know ledge workers, internal
users
Operational staffs, call centers, external users
Sources: Adapted from P. Coffee, '"Active' Warehousing ," eWeek, Vol. 20, No. 25, Ju ne 23, 2003, p. 36; and
Te radata Corp., "Active Data Ware housing," teradata.com/active-data-warehousing/ (accessed August 2013).
environment. However, an SOA based on XML and Web services provides another o ption
for blending tactical and strategic data o n demand.
One critical issue in real-time data warehousing is that not all data should be updated
continuo usly. This may certainly cause problems w hen repo rts are generated in real time ,
because one p e rson's results may not match ano ther person's. For example, a company
using Business Objects Web Intelligence noticed a significant problem w ith real-time
intelligence. Real-time repo1ts produced at slightly different times differ (see Pete rson ,
2003). Also, it may no t be necessary to update certa in data continuo usly (e.g ., course
grades that are 3 or more years old) .
Real-time re quirements change the way we view the design of databases, data warehouses, OLAP, and data mining tools because they are literally updated concurre ntly
while queries are active . But the substantial business value in doing so has been demonstrated , so it is crucial that o rganizatio ns adopt these methods in the ir business processes.
Careful planning is critical in such implementations.
SECTION 3.8 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is an RDW?
2. List the benefits of an RDW.
3. What are the major differences between a tradition al data warehouse and an RDW?
4. List some of the drivers for RDW.
3.9
DATA WAREHOUSE ADMINISTRATION, SECURITY ISSUES,
AND FUTURE TRENDS
Data warehouses p rovide a distinct competitive e dge to enterprises that effectively create and use them. Due to its huge size and its intrinsic nature, a data warehouse req uires
especially strong mo nitoring in o rder to sustain satisfactory efficiency and productivity.
The su ccessful administratio n and ma nageme nt of a data warehouse entails skills and
proficie ncy that go p ast w hat is required of a traditio nal database administrato r (DBA).
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
A data warehouse administrator (DWA) should be familiar with high-performance
software, hardware, and networking technologies. He or she should also p ossess solid
business insight. Because data warehouses feed BI systems and DSS that help managers w ith their decision-making activities, the DWA should be familiar with the decisionmaking processes so as to suitably design and maintain the data warehouse structure. It is
particularly significant for a DWA to keep the existing requirements and capabilities of the
data warehouse stable while simultaneously providing flexibility for rapid improvements.
Finally, a DWA must possess excellent communicatio ns skills. See Benander et al. (2000)
for a description of the key differences between a DBA and a DWA.
Security and privacy of information are main and significant concerns for a data warehouse professional. The U.S. government has passed regulatio ns (e.g., the Gramm-LeachBliley privacy and safeguards rules, the Health Insurance Portability and Accountability
Act of 1996 [HIPAAJ), instituting obligatory requirements in the management of customer
informatio n. Hence, companies must create security procedures that are effective yet flexible to conform to numerous privacy regulations. According to Elson and Leclerc (2005),
effective security in a data warehouse should focus on four main areas:
1. Establishing effective corporate and security policies and procedures. An effective
security policy should start at the top, with executive management, and should be
communicated to all individuals within the organization.
2. Implementing logical security procedures and techniques to restrict access. This
includes user authentication , access controls, and encryption technology.
3. Limiting physical access to the data center environment.
4. Establishing an effective inte rnal control review process with an emphasis on security
and privacy.
See Technology Insights 3.4 for a description of Ambeo's important software tool
that monitors security and privacy of data warehouses. Finally, keep in mind that accessing a data warehouse via a mobile device should always be performed cautiously. In this
instance, data should o nly be accessed as read-only.
In the near term, data wareh ousing developments w ill be determined by noticeable factors (e.g. , data volumes, increased intolerance for latency, the diversity and complexity of data types) and less noticeable factors (e.g., unmet end-user requirements for
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 3.4
Auditing Solution
Ambeo Delivers Proven Data-Access
Since 1997, Arnbeo (ambeo.com; now Embarcadero Technologies, Inc.) has deployed technology that provides performance manageme nt, data usage tracking, data privacy auditing, and
monitoring to Fortune 1000 companies. These firms have some of the largest database e nvironments in existence. Ambeo data-access auditing solutions play a majo r role in an enterprise
information security infrastructure.
The Ambeo technology is a re latively easy solution that records eve1ything that happens
in the databases, w ith low or zero overhead. In addition, it provides data-access auditing that
identifies exactly w ho is looking at data, when they are looking, and what they are doing with
the data. This real-time monitoring helps quickly and effectively identify security breaches.
Sources.- Adapted fro m "Ambeo De livers Proven Data Access Auditing Solution," Database Trends and
Applications, Vol. 19, No. 7, July 2005; and Ambeo, "Keeping Data Private (and Knowing It): Moving
Beyond Conventional Safeguards to Ensure Data Privacy," am-beo.com/why_ambeo_white_papers.html
(accessed May 2009).
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
dashboards, balanced scorecards, master data management, information quality). Given
these drivers, Moseley (2009) and Agosta (2006) suggested that data warehousing trends
will lean toward simplicity, value, and performance.
The Future of Data Warehousing
The field of data warehousing has been a vibrant area in information technology in the
last couple of decades, and the evide nce in the BI/BA and Big Data world shows that
the importance of the field w ill only get even more interesting. Following are some of the
recently popularized concepts and techno logies that w ill play a significant role in defining
the future of data warehousing.
Sourcing (mechanisms for acquisition of data from diverse and dispersed sources):
• Web, social media, and Big Data. The recent upsurge in the use of the Web
for personal as well as business purposes coupled w ith the tremendous interest in
social media creates opportunities for analysts to tap into very rich data sources.
Because of the sheer volume, velocity, and variety of the data, a new term, Big Data,
has been coined to name the phenomenon. Taking advantage of Big Data requires
development of new and dramatically improved BI/BA technologies, which will
result in a revolutionized data warehousing world .
• Open source software. Use of open source software tools is increasing at an
unprecedented level in warehousing, business intelligence, and data integration. There
are good reasons for the upswing of open source software used in data warehousing (Russom, 2009): (1) The recession has driven up interest in low-cost open source
software; (2) open source tools are coming into a new level of maturity, and (3) open
source software augments traditional enterprise software without replacing it.
• Saas (software as a service), "The Extended ASP Model. " Saas is a creative
way of deploying information system applications where the provider licenses
its applications to customers for use as a service o n de mand (usually over the
Internet). Saas software vendo rs may host the application o n their own servers
o r upload the application to the consumer site . In essence, Saas is the new and
improved version of the ASP model. For data warehouse customers, finding SaaSbased software application s an d resources that meet specific needs and requirements can be ch allenging. As these software offerings become more agile, the
appeal and the actual use of Saas as the choice of data warehousing platform w ill
also increase.
• Cloud computing. Cloud computing is perhaps the newest and the most innovative platform cho ice to come along in years. Numerous hardware and software
resources are pooled and virtualized, so that they can be freely allocated to applications and software platforms as resources are needed. This enables information
system applications to dynamically scale up as workloads increase. Although cloud
computing and similar virtualization techniques a re fairly well established for operational applications today, they are just now starting to be used as data warehouse
platforms of choice. The dynamic allocation of a cloud is p articularly useful when
the data volume of the warehouse varies unpredictably, making capacity planning
difficult.
Infrastructure (architectural-hardware and software-enhancements):
• Columnar (a new way to store and access data in the database). A columnoriented database management system (also commonly called a columnar database) is a system that stores data tables as sections of columns of data rather than
as rows of data ( w hich is the way most relational database management systems
do it). That is, these columnar databases store data by columns instead of rows
123
124 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
(all values of a single column are stored consecutively on disk memory). Such a
structure gives a much finer g rain of control to the relational database management
system. It can access only the columns required for the query as opposed to being
forced to access all columns of the row. It performs significantly better for queries
that need a small percentage of the columns in the tables they are in but p erforms
significantly worse w hen you need most of the columns due to the overhead in
attaching all of the columns together to form the result sets. Comparisons between
row-oriented and column-o rie nted data layouts are typically concerned with the
efficiency of hard-disk access for a given workload (which happens to be one of
the most time-consuming operations in a computer). Based o n the task at hand,
one may be significantly advantageous over the other. Column-oriented organizations are more efficient w hen (1) an aggregate needs to be computed over many
rows but only for a notably smaller subset of all columns of data, because reading
that smaller subset of data can be faster than reading all data, and (2) new values of
a column are supplied for all rows at o nce, because that column data can be written
efficiently and replace old column data without touching any other columns for the
rows. Row-oriented organizations are mo re efficient when (1) many columns of a
single row are required at the same time, and when row size is relatively small, as
the e ntire row can be retrieved with a single disk seek, and (2) w riting a new row if
all of the column data is supplied at the same time, as the entire row can be written
with a single disk seek. Additionally, since the data stored in a column is of uniform
type, it lends itself better for compression . That is, significant storage size optimization is available in column-oriented data that is not available in row-oriented data.
Such optimal compressio n of data reduces storage size, making it more economically justifiable to pursue in-memory or solid state storage alternatives.
• Real-time data warehousing. Real-time data warehousing implies that the
refresh cycle of an existing data warehouse updates the data more frequently (almost
at the same time as the data becomes available at operational databases). These
real-time data wareho use systems can achieve near-real-time update of data, w here
the data latency typically is in the range from minutes to hours. As the latency gets
smaller, the cost of data update seems to increase exponentially. Future advancements in many technological fronts (ranging from automatic data acquisition to inte lligent software agents) are needed to make real-time data warehousing a reality with
an affordable price tag.
• Data warehouse appliances (all-in-one solutions to DW). A data warehouse
appliance consists of an integrated set of servers, storage, operating system(s), database management systems, and software specifically preinstalled and preoptimized
for data warehousing. In practice, data warehouse appliances provide solutions
for the mid-to-big data warehouse market, offering low-cost performance on data
volumes in the terabyte to petabyte range. In o rder to improve performance, most
data wareho u se appliance vendors use massively parallel processing architectures.
Even though most database and data warehouse vendors provide appliances nowadays, many believe that Teradata was the first to provide a commercial data warehouse applia nce product. What is often observed now is the emergence of data
warehouse bundles, where vendors combine their hardware and database software
as a data warehouse platform. From a benefits standpoint, data warehouse appliances have significantly low total cost of ownership, which includes initial purchase
costs, o ngoing maintenance costs, and the cost of changing capacity as the data
grows. The resource cost for monitoring and tuning the data warehouse makes up
a large part of the total cost of ownership, often as much as 80 percent. DW appliances reduce administratio n for day-to-day operations, setup, and integration. Since
data wareho use appliances provide a single-vendo r solutio n , they tend to better
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
optimize the hardware and software within the appliance. Such a unified integration
maximizes the chances of successful integration and testing of the DBMS storage
and operating system by avoiding some of the compatibility issues that arise from
multi-vendor solutio ns. A data warehouse appliance also provides a single point of
contact for problem resolution and a much simpler upgrade path for both software
and hardware.
• Data management technologies and practices. Some of the most pressing
needs for a next-generatio n data warehouse platform involve technologies and
practices that we gene rally don't think of as part of the platform. In particular,
many users need to update the data management tools that process data for use
through data warehousing. The future holds strong growth for master data management (MDM). This relatively new, but extremely important, concept is gaining
popularity for many reasons, including the following: (1) Tighte r integration with
operational systems demands MDM; (2) most data warehouses still lack MDM and
data quality functions; and (3) regulatory and financial reports must be perfectly
clean and accurate.
• In-database processing technology (putting the algorithms where the
data is). In-database processing (also called in-database analytics) refers to the
integratio n of the algorithmic extent of data analytics into data warehouse. By doing
so, the data and the analytics that work off the data live w ithin the same environment. Having the two in close proximity increases the efficiency of the computationally intensive analytics procedures. Today, many large database-driven decision
support systems, su ch as those used for credit card fraud detection and investment
risk management, use this technology because it provides significant performance
improvements over traditional methods in a decision environment w here time is
of the essence. In-database processing is a complex e ndeavor compared to the
traditional way of conducting analytics, w here the data is moved out of the database (often in a flat file format that consists of rows and columns) into a separate analytics environment (such as SAS Enterprise Modeler, Statistica Data Miner,
or IBM SPSS Modeler) for processing. In-database processing makes more sense
for high-throughput, real-time application environments, including fraud detection, credit scoring, risk management, transaction processing, pricing and margin
analysis, usage-based micro-segmenting, behavioral ad targeting, and recommendatio n e ngines, such as those used by customer service organizations to determine
next-best actions. In-database processing is performed and promoted as a feature
by many of the major data warehousing vendors, including Teradata (integrating
SAS analytics cap abilities into the data warehouse appliances), IBM Netezza, EMC
Greenplum, and Sybase, among others.
• In-memory storage technology (moving the data in the memory for faster
processing). Conventional database systems, such as relational database management syste ms, typically use p hysical hard drives to store data for an extended
period of time. When a data-related process is requested by an application , the
database management system loads the data (or parts of the data) into the main
memory, processes it, and responds back to the application. Although data (or parts
of the data) is temporarily cached in the main memory in a database management
system, the primary storage location remains a magnetic hard disk. In contrast, an
in-memory database system keeps the data permanently in the main memory. When
a data-related process is requested by an application, the database management
system directly accesses the data, which is already in the main me mory, processes
it, and responds back to the requesting application. This direct access to data in
main memory makes the processing of data orders much faster than the traditional
method. The main benefit of in-me mory technology (maybe the o nly be nefit of it) is
125
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
the incredible speed at which it accesses the data. The disadvantages include cost of
paying for a very large main memory (even tho ugh it is getting cheaper, it still costs
a great deal to have a large enough main memory that can hold all of com pany's
data) and the need for sophisticated data recovery strategies (since main memory is
volatile and can be w iped out accidentally).
• New database management systems. A data warehouse platform consists of several basic components, of which the most critical is the database management system
(DBMS). This is o nly natural, given the fact that DBMS is the component of the platform
where the most work must be done to implement a data model and optimize it for
query performance. Therefore, the DBMS is where many next-generation innovations
are expected to happen.
• Advanced analytics. Users can choose different analytic methods as they move
beyond basic OLAP-based methods and into advanced analytics. Some users choose
advanced analytic methods based on data mining, predictive analytics, statistics,
artificial inte llige nce, and so o n. Still, the majority of users seem to be choosing SQLbased methods. Either SQL-based or not, advanced analytics seem to be among the
most important promises of next-generation data warehousing.
The future of data warehousing seems to be full of promises and significant
challe nges. As the world of business becomes more global and complex, the need for
business inte llige nce and data warehousing tools will also become more prominent. The
fast-improving information techno logy tools and techniques seem to be moving in the
right direction to address the needs of future business intelligence systems.
SECTION 3.9 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What step s can an organization take to ensure the security and confidentiality of cus-
tomer data in its data warehou se?
2. What skills should a DWA possess? Why?
3. What recent technologies may shape the future of data warehousing? Why?
3.10
RESOURCES, LINKS, AND THE TERADATA UNIVERSITY
NETWORK CONNECTION
The use of this chapter and most other chapters in this book can be enhanced by the tools
described in the following sections.
Resources and Links
We recommend looking at the following resources and links for further reading and
explanatio ns:
• The Data Warehouse Institute (tdwi.org)
• DM Review (information-management.com)
• DSS Resources (dssresources.com)
Cases
All major MSS vendors (e.g., MicroStrategy, Microsoft, Oracle, IBM, Hyperion , Cognos, Exsys,
Fair Isaac, SAP, Info rmation Builders) provide interesting customer success stories. Academicoriented cases are available at the Harvard Business School Case Collection (harvardbu
sinessonline.hbsp.harvard.edu) , Business Performance Improvement Resource (bpir.
com), IGI Global Disseminator of Knowledge (igi-global.com), Ivy League Publishing
(ivylp.com) , ICFAI Cente r for Management Research (icmr.icfai.org/casestudies/
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing 127
icmr_case_studies.htm), KnowledgeStorm (knowledgestonn.com), and other sites. For
additional case resources, see Teradata University Network (teradatauniversitynetwork.
com). For data warehousing cases, we specifically recommend the following from the
Teradata University Network (teradatauniversitynetwork.com): "Continental Airlines Flies
High with Real-Time Business Intelligence," "Data Warehouse Governance at Blue Cross
and Blue Shield of North Carolina," "3M Moves to a Customer Focus Using a Global Data
Warehouse," "Data Warehousing Supports Corporate Strategy at First American Corporation,"
"Harrah's High Payoff from Customer Information," and "Whirlpool. " We also recommend
the Data Warehousing Failures Assignment, which consists of eight short cases on data
warehousing failures.
Vendors, Products, and Demos
A comprehensive list of vendors, products, and demos is available at DM Review
(dmreview.com) . Vendors are listed in Table 3.2. Also see technologyevaluation.com.
Periodicals
We recommend the following p eriodicals:
• Baseline (baselinemag.com)
• Business Intelligence journal (tdwi.org)
• CIO (do.com)
• CIO Insight (cioinsight.com)
• Computerworld (computerworld.com)
• Decision Support Systems (elsevier.com)
• DM Review (dmreview.com)
• eWeek (eweek.com)
• Info Week (infoweek.com)
• Info World (infoworld.com)
• InternetWeek (internetweek.com)
• Management Information Systems Quarterly (MIS Quarterly; misq.org)
• Technology Evaluation (technologyevaluation.com)
• Teradata Magazine (teradata.com)
Additional References
For additional information o n data warehousing, see the following:
• C. Imhoff, N. Galemmo, and]. G. Geiger. (2003). Mastering Data Warehouse Design:
Relational and Dimensional Techniques. New York: Wiley.
• D. Marco and M. Je nnings. (2004). Universal Meta Data Models. New York: Wiley.
•]. Wang. (2005). Encyclopedia ofData Warehousing and Mining. Hershey, PA: Idea
Group Publishing.
For more on databases, the structure on which data warehouses are developed, see
the following:
• R. T. Watson. (2006). Data Management, 5th ed ., New York: Wiley.
The Teradata University Network (TUN) Connection
TUN (teradatauniversitynetwork.com) provides a wealth of information and cases
on data warehousing. One of the best is the Continental Airlines case, w hich we require
you to solve in a later exercise. Other recommended cases are mentioned earlie r in this
128 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
chapter. At TUN, if you click the Courses tab and select Data Warehousing, you will see
links to many relevant a1ticles, assignments, book chapters, course Web sites, PowerPoint
presentations, projects, research reports, syllabi, and Web seminars. You will also find
links to active data warehousing software demonstrations. Finally, you will see links to
Teradata (teradata.com), where you can find additional information, including excellent data warehousing success stories, white papers, Web-based courses, and the online
version of Teradata Magazine.
Chapter Highlights
• A data warehouse is a specially constructed data
repository where data are organized so that they
can be easily accessed by end users for several
applications.
• Data marts contain data on one topic (e.g., marketing). A data mart can be a replication of a subset
of data in the data warehouse. Data marts are a
less expensive solution that can be replaced by
or can supplement a data warehouse. Data marts
can be independent of or dependent on a data
warehouse.
• An ODS is a type of customer-information-file
database that is often used as a staging area for a
data warehouse.
• Data integration comprises three major processes: data access, data federation, and change
capture. When these three processes are correctly
implemented, data can be accessed and made
accessible to an array of ETL and analysis tools
and data warehousing environments.
• ETL technologies pull data from many sources,
cleanse them, and load them into a data warehouse. ETL is an integral process in any datacentric project.
• Real-time or active data warehousing supplements and expands traditional data warehousing,
moving into the realm of operational and tactical decision making by loading data in real time
and providing data to users for active decision
making.
• The security and privacy of data and information
are critical issues for a data warehouse professional.
Key Terms
active data warehousing
(ADW)
cube
data integration
data mart
data warehouse CDW)
data warehouse
administrator CDWA)
dependent data mart
dimensional modeling
dimension table
drill down
enterprise application
integration (EAi)
enterprise data
warehouse (EDW)
enterprise information
integration (Ell)
extraction,
transformation,
and load (ETL)
independent data mart
metadata
OLTP
aper mart
operational data store
(ODS)
real-time data
warehousing (RDW)
snowflake schema
star schema
Questions for Discussion
1. Compare data integration and ETL. How are they related?
2. What is a data warehouse, and what are its benefits? Why
is Web accessibility important with a data warehouse?
3. A data mart can replace a data warehouse or complement it. Compare and discuss these options.
4. Discuss the major drivers and benefits of data warehousing to end users.
5. List the differences and/ or similarities between the roles
of a database administrator and a data warehouse administrator.
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
6. Describe how data integration can lead to higher levels
of data quality.
7. Compare the Kimball and Inmon approaches toward
data ware house development. Identify when each one is
most effective.
8. Discuss security concerns involved in building a data
ware house.
129
9. Investigate current data warehouse development implementation through offshoring. Write a report about it. In
class, debate the issue in terms of the benefits and costs,
as well as social factors.
Exercises
Teradata University and Other Hands-On Exercises
1. Consider the case describing the development and application of a data warehouse for Coca-Cola Japan (a summa1y appears in Application Case 3.4), available at the
DSS Resources Web site, http://dssresources.com/
cases/coca-colajapan/. Read the case and answer the
nine questions for further analysis and discussion.
2 . Read the Ball (2005) article and rank-order the criteria
(ideally for a real o rganizatio n). In a report, explain how
important each criterion is and w hy.
3. Explain when you should implement a two- or threetiered architecture when considering developing a data
warehouse.
4. Read the full Continental Airlines case (summarized in the End-of-Chapter Application Case) at
teradatauniversitynetwork.com and answer the
questions.
5. At teradatauniversitynetwork.com, read and answer
the questions to the case "Harrah's High Payoff from
Customer Information." Relate Harrah's results to how
airlines and othe r casinos use their customer data.
6. At teradatauniversitynetwork.com, read and answer
the questions of the assignment "Data Warehousing
Failures." Because e ight cases are described in that
assignment, the class may be divided into eight groups,
with one case assigned per group. In addition, read
Ariyachandra and Watson (2006a), a nd for each case
identify how the failure occurred as related to not focusing on one or more of the reference's success factor(s).
7. At teradatauniversitynetwork.com, read and answer
the questions with the assignment "Ad-Vent Technology:
Using the MicroStrategy Sales Analytic Model." The
MicroStrategy software is accessible from the TUN site.
Also, you might want to use Barbara Wixom's PowerPoint
presentation about the MicroStrategy software ("Demo
Slides for MicroStrategy Tutorial Script"), which is also
available at the TUN site.
8. At teradatauniversitynetwork.com, watch the Web
seminars titled "Real-Time Data Warehousing: The Next
Generation of Decision Support Data Management" and
"Building the Real-Time Enterprise." Read the article
"Teradata 's Real-Time Enterprise Reference Architecture :
A Blueprint for the Future of IT," also available at this
site . Describe how real-time concepts and technologies
work and how they can be used to extend existing data
warehousing and BI architectures to support day-to-day
d ecision making. Write a report indicating how real-time
data warehousing is specifically providing competitive
advantage for organizations. Describe in de tail the difficulties in such implementations and operations and
d escribe how they are being addressed in practice.
9. At teradatauniversitynetwork.com, watch the Web
seminars "Data Integration Renaissance: New Drivers and
Emerging Approaches," "In Search of a Single Version of
the Truth: Strategies for Consolidating Analytic Silos," and
"Data Integration: Using ETL, EAi, and Ell Tools to Create
an Integrated Enterprise." Also read the "Data Integration"
research report. Compare and contrast the presentations.
What is the most important issue described in these seminars? What is the best way to handle the strategies and
challenges of consolidating data marts and spreadsheets
into a unified data warehousing architecture? Perform a
Web search to identify the latest developments in the
field. Compare the presentation to the material in the text
and the new material that you found.
10. Consider the future of data warehousing. Pe1form a Web
search on this topic. Also, read these two articles: L. Agosta,
"Data Warehousing in a Flat World: Trends for 2006," DM
Direct Newsletter, March 31, 2006; and ]. G. Geiger, "CIFe:
Evolving w ith the Times," DM Review, November 2005,
pp. 38-41. Compare and contrast your findings.
11. Access teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Identify the
latest articles, research repo1ts, and cases on data warehousing. Describe recent developments in the field.
Include in your report how data warehousing is used in
BI and DSS.
Team Assignments and Role-Playing Projects
1. Kath1yn Avery has been a DBA w ith a nationwide retail
chain (Big Chain) for the past 6 years. She has recently
been asked to lead the deve lopment of Big Chain's first
data warehouse. The project has the sponsorship of senior management and the CIO. The rationale for developing the data warehouse is to advance the reporting
systems, particularly in sales and marketing, and, in the
lo nger term, to improve Big Chain's CRM. Kathryn has
been to a Data Warehousing Institute conference and
has been doing some reading, but she is still mystified
130
Part II • Descriptive Analytics
about development methodologies. She knows there are
two groups-EDW (Inmon) and architected data marts
(Kimball)-that have robust features.
Initially, she believed that the two methodologies
were extremely dissimilar, but as she has examined them
more carefully, she isn 't so certain. Kath1yn has a number of questio ns that she would like answered:
a. What are the real differences between the methodologies?
b. What factors are important in selecting a particular
methodology?
c. What should be he r next steps in thinking about a
methodology?
Help Kathryn answer these questio ns. (This exercise
was adapted from K. Duncan, L. Reeves, and J. Griffin,
"BI Experts' Perspective," Business Intelligence Journal,
Vol. 8, No. 4, Fall 2003, pp. 14-19.)
2. Jeer Kumar is the administrato r of data warehousing at
a big regio na l bank. He was appointed 5 years ago to
impleme nt a data warehouse to support the bank's CRM
business strategy. Using the data ware ho use, the bank
has been successful in integrating custome r information,
understanding customer profitability, attracting customers, enhancing customer relationships, and retaining
customers.
Over the years, the bank's data warehouse has
moved closer to real time by moving to more frequent
refreshes of the data warehouse. Now, the bank wants
to imple ment customer self-service and call center applications that require even freshe r data than is currently
available in the ware house.
Jeer wants some support in conside ring the possibilities for presenting fresher data. One alte rnative is
to entire ly commit to impleme nting real-time data warehousing . His ETL vendor is prepared to assist him make
this change. Nevertheless, Jeer has been informed about
EAI and Ell technologies and wonders how they might
fit into his plans.
In particular, he has the following questions:
a. What exactly are EAI and Ell technologies?
b. How are EAI and Ell re lated to ETL?
c. How are EAI and Ell related to real-time data
ware housing?
d. Are EAI and Ell required, complementary, or alternatives to real-time data wareho using?
Help Jeer answer these questions. (This exercise was
adapted from S. Brobst, E. Levy, and C. Muzilla, "Enterprise
Application Integratio n and Enterprise Informatio n
Integration," Business Intelligence Journal, Vol. 10, No. 2,
Spring 2005, pp. 27-33.)
3. Interview administrators in your college or executives
in your organization to determine how data warehousing could assist them in their work. Write a proposal
describing your findings. Include cost estimates and benefits in your report.
4. Go through the list of data warehousing risks described
in this chapter and find two examples of each in practice.
5. Access teradata.com and read the w hite papers "Measuring
Data Warehouse ROI" and "Realizing ROI: Projecting
and Harvesting the Business Value of an Enterprise Data
Warehouse." Also, watch the Web-based course "The ROI
Factor: How Leading Practitioners Deal with the Tough
Issue of Measuring DW ROI." Describe the most important
issues described in them. Compare these issues to the success factors described in Ariyachandra and Watson (2006a).
6. Read the article by K. Liddell Ave1y and Hugh J.
Watson, "Training Data Warehouse End Users," Business
Intelligence Journal, Vol. 9, No. 4, Fall 2004, pp. 40-51
(which is available at teradatauniversitynetwork.com).
Consider the different classes of end users, describe their
difficulties, and discuss the benefits of appropriate training for each group. Have each member of the group take
on one of the roles and have a discussion about how an
appropriate type of data warehousing training would be
good for each of you .
Internet Exercises
1. Search the Internet to find information about data ware-
housing. Identify some newsgroups that have an interest in
this concept. Explore ABI/INFORM in your library, e-library,
and Google for recent articles on the topic. Begin with
tdwi.org, technologyevaluation.com, and the major
vendors: teradata.com, sas.com, oracle.com, and ncr.
com. Also check do.com, information-management.
com, dssresources.com, and db2mag.com.
2. Survey some ETL tools and vendors. Start w ith fairisaac.
com and egain.com. Also consult informationmanagement.com.
3. Contact some data warehouse vendors and obtain information about their products. Give special attention to
vendors that provide tools for multiple purposes, such as
Cognos, Software A&G, SAS Institute, and Oracle. Free
online demos are available from some of these vendors.
Download a demo or two and try them. Write a report
describing your experience.
4. Explore teradata.com for deve lopments and success
stories about data warehousing. Write a report about
what you have discovered.
5. Explore teradata.com for w hite papers and Web-based
courses on data warehousing. Read the former and watch
the latter. (Divide the class so that all the sources are
covered.) Write what you have discovered in a report.
6. Find recent cases of successful data warehousing applications. Go to data ware house vendors' sites and look
for cases or success stories. Select one and write a brief
summary to present to your class.
Chapter 3 • Data Warehousing
131
End-of-Chapter Application Case
Continental Airlines Flies High with Its Real-Time Data Warehouse
As business intelligence (BI) becomes a critical component of
daily operations, real-time data warehouses that provide end
users w ith rapid updates and alerts generated from transactional
systems are increasingly be ing de ployed. Real-time data ware housing and BI, supporting its aggressive Go Fo1ward business
plan, have he lped Continental Airlines alte r its industry status
from "worst to first" and then from "first to favorite." Continental
airlines (now a part of United Airlines) is a leader in real-time
DW and BI. In 2004, Continental won the Data Warehousing
Institute's Best Practices and Leadership Award. Even though it
has been a while since Continental Airlines deployed its hugely
successful real-time DW and BI infrastructure, it is still regarded
as one of the best examples and a seminal success story for
real-time active data warehousing.
Problem(s)
Continental Airlines was founded in 1934, with a single-engine
Lockheed aircraft in the Southwestern United States. As of
2006, Continental was the fifth largest airline in the United
States and the seventh largest in the world. Continental had the
broadest global route network of any U.S. airline, w ith mo re
than 2,300 daily depa1tures to more than 227 destinations.
Back in 1994, Continental was in deep financial trouble .
It had file d for Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection twice and was
heading for its third, and probably final, bankruptcy. Ticket
sales were hurting because pe rformance o n factors that are
important to customers was dismal, including a low percentage of on-time depa1tures, freque nt baggage arrival problems,
and too many custome rs turned away due to overbooking.
Solution
The revival of Continental began in 1994, w hen Gordon
Bethune became CEO and initiated the Go Forward plan ,
which consisted of four interrelated parts to be implemented
simultaneously. Bethune targe te d the need to improve custo me r-valued performance measures by bette r understanding
customer needs as well as customer perceptions of the value
of services that were and could be offered. Financial management practices were also targete d for a significant overhaul. As
early as 1998, the airline had separate databases for marketing
and operations, all hosted and managed by outside vendors.
Processing queries and instigating marketing programs to its
high-value customers were time-consuming and ineffective .
In additional, information that the workforce needed to make
quick decisio ns was simply not available . In 1999, Contine ntal
chose to integrate its marketing, IT, revenue, and operational
data sources into a single, in-house, EDW. The data ware house provided a variety of early, major benefits.
As soon as Continental returned to profitability and
ranked first in the airline industry in many performance metrics, Bethune and his management team ra ised the bar by
escalating the vision. Instead of just performing best, they
wanted Contine ntal to be their customers' favorite airline. The
Go Forward plan establishe d more actionable ways to move
from first to favorite among customers. Technology became
increasingly critical for supporting these new initiatives. In
the early days, having access to historical, integrated informatio n was sufficie nt. This produced substantial strategic value.
But it became increasingly imperative for the data warehouse
to provide real-time, actionable information to support e nte rprise-w ide tactical decision making and business processes.
Luckily, the warehouse team had expected and arranged
for the real-time shift. From the ve1y beginning, the team had
created an architecture to handle real-time data feeds into the
ware house, extracts of data from legacy systems into the warehouse, and tactical queries to the warehouse that required almost
inUTiediate response times. In 2001, real-time data became available from the warehouse, and the amount stored grew rapidly.
Continental moves real-time data (ranging from to-the-minute
to hourly) about customers, reservations, check-ins, operations,
and flights from its main operational systems to the warehouse.
Continental's real-time ap plications include the following:
• Revenue management and accounting
• Custo mer relationship management (CRM)
• Crew operations and payroll
• Security and fraud
• Flight operatio ns
Results
In the first year alone, after the data warehouse project was
deployed, Continental identified and eliminated over $7 million
in fraud and reduced costs by $41 million. With a $30 million
investment in hardware and software over 6 years, Contine ntal
has reached over $500 million in increased revenues and cost
savings in marketing, fraud detection, demand forecasting and
tracking, and improved data cente r management. The single,
integrated , trusted view of the business (i.e., the single version
of the truth) has led to better, faster decision making.
Because of its tremendous success, Continental's DW
implementation has been recognized as an excellent example
for real-time BI, based on its scalable and extensible architecture, practical decisions on what data are captured in real
time, strong relatio nships with end users, a small and highly
competent data warehouse staff, sensible weighing of strategic
and tactical decision support requirements, understanding of
the synergies between decision support and operations, and
changed business processes that use real-time data.
QUESTIONS FOR THE END-OF-CHAPTER
APPLICATION CASE
1. Describe the benefits of impleme nting the Continental
Go Forward strategy.
2. Explain w hy it is impo rtant for an airline to use a realtime data wareho use.
132 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
3. Identify the major differences between the traditional
data ware house a nd a re al-time data warehouse, as was
imple mented at Contine ntal.
4. What strategic advantage can Contine nta l derive from
the real-time system as opposed to a tra ditio nal information system?
Sources: Adapted from H. Wixom, J. Ho ffe r, R. Anderson-Le hman,
and A. Reynolds, "Real-Time Business Inte lligence: Best Practices
at Continenta l Airlines," Infonnation Systems Management Journal,
Winter 2006, pp. 7-18; R. Anderson-Le hman, H. Watson, B. Wixom,
and]. Hoffer, "Continental Airlines Flies High w ith Real-Time Business
Intelligence," MIS Quarterly Executive, Vol. 3, No. 4, December
2004, pp. 163-176 (available at teradatauniversitynetwork.com);
H . Watson, "Real Time: The Next Generation of Decision-Support
Data Manageme nt," Business Intelligence Journal, Vol. 10, No. 3,
2005, pp. 4-6; M. Edwards, "2003 Best Practices Awards Winners:
Innovators in Business Inte lligence and Data Ware ho using ," Business
IntelligenceJournal, Fall 2003, pp. 57-64; R. Westervelt, "Contine ntal
Airlines Builds Real-Time Data Warehouse," August 20, 2003,
searchoracle.techtarget.com; R. Clayton, "Ente rprise Business
Performance Management: Business Intelligence + Data Warehouse
= Optimal Business Performance," Teradata Magazine, Septe mber
2005, and The Data Warehousing Institute, "2003 Best Practices
Summaries: Enterprise Data Warehouse," 2003.
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Model." DM Direct Newsletter.
CHAPTER
Business Reporting,
Visual Analytics, and Business
Performance Management
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Define business reporting and
understand its historical evolution
• Know the capabilities and limitations of
dashboards
• Recognize the need for and the power
of business reporting
• Understand the nature of business
p erformance management (BPM)
• Understand the importance of data/
information visualization
• Learn the closed-loop BPM methodology
• Learn different types of visualization
techniques
• Describe the basic elements of the
balanced scorecard
• Appreciate the value that visual analytics
brings to BI/BA
report is a communication artifact prepared with the specific intention of relaying
information in a presentable form. If it concerns business matters, then it is
called a business report. Business reporting is an essential part of the business
intelligence movement toward improving managerial decision making. Nowadays, these
reports are more visually oriented, often using colors and graphical icons that collectively
look like a dashboard to enhance the information content. Business reporting and
business performance management (BPM) are both enablers of business intelligence and
analytics. As a decision support tool, BPM is more than just a reporting technology. It is
an integrated set of processes, methodologies, metrics, and applications designed to drive
the overall financial and operational performance of an enterprise. It helps enterprises
translate the ir strategies and objectives into plans, monito r performance against those
plans, analyze variations between actual results and planned results, and adjust their
objectives and actions in response to this analysis.
This chapter starts with examining the need for and the power of business reporting. With the emergence of analytics, business reporting evolved into dashboards and
visual analytics, which, compared to traditional descriptive repo rting, is much more predictive and prescriptive. Coverage of dashboards and visual analytics is followed by a
A
135
136 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
comprehensive introduction to BPM. As you will see and appreciate, BPM and visual
analytics have a symbiotic relationship (over scorecards and dashboards) where they
benefit from each other's strengths.
4.1 Opening Vignette: Self-Service Reporting Environment Saves Millions for
Corporate Customers 136
4.2 Business Reporting Definitions and Concepts 139
4.3 Data and Information Visualization 145
4.4 Differe nt Types of Charts and Graphs 150
4.5 The Emergence of Data Visualization and Visual Analytics
4.6 Performance Dashboards 160
4. 7 Business Performance Management 166
4.8 Performance Measurement 170
4.9 Balanced Scorecards 172
4.10 Six Sigma as a Performance Measurement System 175
4.1
154
OPENING VIGNETTE: Self-Service Reporting Environment
Saves Millions for Corporate Customers
Headquartered in Omaha, Nebraska, Travel and Transport, Inc. , is the sixth largest travel
management company in the United States, with more than 700 employee-owners located
nationwide. The company has extensive experience in multiple verticals, including travel
management, loyalty solutions programs, meeting and incentive planning, and leisure
travel services.
CHALLENGE
In the field of employee travel services, the ability to effectively communicate a value
proposition to existing and potential customers is critical to winning and retaining
business. With travel arrangements often made on an ad hoc basis, customers find it
difficult to analyze costs or instate optimal purchase agreements. Travel and Transport
wanted to overcome these challenges by implementing an integrated reporting and
analysis system to enhance relationships with existing clients, while providing the kind of
value-added services that would attract new prospects.
SOLUTION
Travel and Transport impleme nted Informatio n Builders' WebFOCUS business intelligence
(BI) platform (called eTTek Review) as the foundation of a dynamic customer selfservice BI environment. This dashboard-driven expense-management application helps
more than 800 external clients like Robert W. Baird & Co., MetLife, and American Family
Insurance to plan, track, analyze, and budget their travel expenses more efficiently and
to benchmark them against similar companies, saving the m millions of dollars. More than
200 internal employees, including customer service specialists, also have access to the
system, using it to generate more precise forecasts for clients and to streamline and accelerate other key support processes such as quarterly reviews.
Thanks to WebFOCUS, Travel and Transport doesn't just tell its clients how much
they are saving by using its services- it shows them. This has helped the company to
differentiate itself in a market defined by aggressive competitio n. Additionally, WebFOCUS
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
eliminates manual report compilation for client service specialists, saving the company
close to $200,000 in lost time each year.
AN INTUITIVE, GRAPHICAL WAY TO MANAGE TRAVEL DATA
Using stunning graphics created with WebFOCUS and Adobe Flex, the business intelligence system provides access to thousands of reports that show individual client metrics,
benchmarked information against aggregated market data, and even ad hoc reports that
users can specify as needed. "For most of our corporate customers, we thoroughly manage
their travel from planning and reservations to billing, fulfillment, and ongoing analysis,"
says Mike Kubasik, senior vice president and CIO at Travel and Transport. "WebFOCUS
is important to our business. It helps our customers monitor employee spending, book
travel with preferred vendors, and negotiate corporate purchasing agreements that can
save them millions of dollars per year. "
Clients love it, and it's giving Travel and Transport a competitive edge in a crowded
marketplace. "I use Travel and Transport's eTTek Review to automatically e-mail reports
throughout the company for a variety of reasons, such as monitoring travel trends and
company expendin1res and assisting with airline expense reconciliation and allocations,"
says Cathy Moulton, vice president and travel manager at Robert W. Baird & Co. ,
a prominent financial services company. What she loves about the WebFOCUS-enabled
Web portal is that it makes all of the company's travel information available in just a few
clicks. "I have the data at my fingertips ," she adds. "I don't have to wait for someone to
go in and do it for me. I can set up the reports on my own. Then we can go to the hotels
and preferred vendors armed with detailed information that gives us leverage to negotiate
our rates."
Robert W. Baird & Co. isn't the only firm benefiting from this advanced access to
reporting. Many of Travel and Transport's other clients are also happy w ith the technology. "With Travel and Transport's state-of-the-art reporting technology, MetLife is able
to measure its travel program through data analysis, standard reporting, and the ability
to create ad hoc reports dynamically, " says Tom Molesky, director of travel services at
MetLife. "Metrics derived from actionable data provide direction and drive us toward our
goals. This is key to helping us negotiate with our suppliers, enforce our travel policy,
and save our company money. Travel and Transport's leading-edge product has helped
us to meet and, in some cases, exceed our travel goals. "
READY FOR TAKEOFF
Travel and Transport used WebFOCUS to create an online system that allows clients
to access information directly, so they won't have to rely on the IT department to nm
reports for them. Its objective was to give customers online tools to monitor corporate
travel expenditures throughout their companies. By giving clients access to the right
data, Travel and Transport can help make sure its custome rs are getting the best pricing
from airlines, hotels, car rental companies, and other vendors. "We needed more than
just pretty reports, " Kubasik recalls, looking back on the early phases of the BI project.
"We wanted to build a reporting environment that was powerful enough to handle
transaction-intensive operations, yet simple enough to deploy over the Web. " It was a
winning formula. Clients and customer service specialists continue to use eTTek Review
to create forecasts for the coming year and to target specific areas of business travel
expenditures. These users can choose from dozens of management reports. Popular
reports include travel summary, airline compliance, hotel analysis, and car analysis.
Travel managers at about 700 corporations use these reports to analyze corporate travel
spending on a daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, and annual basis. About 160 standard
reports and more than 3,000 custom repo1ts are currently set up in eTTek Review,
137
138
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
including everything from noncompliance reports that reveal why an employee did not
obtain the lowest airfare for a particular flight to executive overviews that summarize
spending patterns. Most reports are parameter driven w ith Information Builders' unique
guided ad hoc reporting technology.
PEER REVIEW SYSTEM KEEPS EXPENSES ON TRACK
Users can also run reports that compare their own travel metrics with aggregated travel
data from other Travel and Transport clients. This benchmarking service lets them gauge
whether their expenditures, preferred rates, and other metrics are in line with those of
other companies of a similar size or within the same industry. By pooling the data, Travel
and Transport helps protect individual clients' information while also enabling its entire
customer base to achieve lower rates by giving them leverage for their negotiations.
Reports can be run interactively or in batch mode, with results displayed on the
screen, stored in a library, saved to a PDF file, loaded into an Excel spreadsheet, or
sent as an Active Report that permits additional analysis. "Our clients love the visual
metaphors provided by Information Builders' graphical displays, including Adobe Flex
and WebFOCUS Active PDF files," explains Steve Cords, IT manager at Travel and
Transport and team leader for the eTTek Review project. "Most summary reports have
drill-down capability to a detailed report. All reports can be run for a particular hierarchy
structure, and more than o ne hierarchy can be selected."
Of course, users never see the code that makes all of this possible. They operate
in an intuitive dashboard environment with drop-down menus and drillable graphs, all
accessible through a browser-based interface that requires no client-side software. This
architecture makes it easy and cost-effective for users to tap into eTTek Review from any
location. Collectively, customers nm an estimated 50,000 reports p er month. About 20,000
of those reports are automatically generated and distributed via WebFOCUS ReportCaster.
AN EFFICIENT ARCHITECTURE THAT YIELDS SOARING RESULTS
Travel and Transport captures travel information from reservation systems known as
Global Distribution Systems (GDS) via a proprietary back-office system that resides in
a DB2 database o n an IBM iSeries computer. They use SQL tables to store user IDs
and passwords, and use other databases to store the information. "The database can be
sorted according to a specific hierarchy to match the breakdown of reports required by
each company," continues Cords. "If they want to see just marketing and accounting
information, we can deliver it. If they want to see the particular level of detail reflecting a
given cost center, we can deliver that, too. "
Because all data is securely stored for three years, clients can generate trend reports
to compare current travel to previous years. They can also use the BI system to monitor
w here employees are traveling at any point in time. The reports are so easy to use that
Cords and his team have started replacing outdated processes w ith new automated ones
using the same WebFOCUS technology. The company also uses WebFOCUS to streamline
their quarterly review process. In the past, client service managers had to manually create
these quarterly reports by aggregating data from a variety of clients. The 80-page report
took o ne week to create at the end of every quarter.
Travel and Transport has completely automated the quarterly review system using
WebFOCUS so the managers can select the pages, percentages, and specific data they
want to include. This gives them more time to do further analysis and make better use of
the information. Cords estimates that the time savings add up to about $200,000 eve1y year
for this project alo ne. "Metrics derived from actionable data are key to helping us negotiate
with our suppliers, enforce our travel policy, and save our company money," continues
Cords. "During the recessio n, the travel industry was hit particularly hard, but Travel and
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
Transport managed to add new multimillion dollar accounts even in the worst of times. We
attribute a lot of this growth to the cutting-edge reporting technology we offer to clients."
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. What does Travel and Transport, Inc., do1
2. Describe the complexity and the competitive nature of the business environment in
which Travel and Transport, Inc., functions.
3. What were the main business challenges?
4. What was the solution? How was it implemented?
5. Why do you think a multi-vendor, multi-tool solution was implemented?
6. List and comment on at least three main benefits of the implemented system. Can
you think of other potential benefits that are not mentioned in the case?
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETTE
Trying to survive (and thrive) in a highly competitive industry, Travel and Transport,
Inc. , was aware of the need to create and effectively communicate a value proposition
to its existing and potential customers. As is the case in many industries, in the travel
business, success or mere survival depends on continuously winning new customers
while retaining the existing ones. The key was to provide value-added services to the
client so that they can efficie ntly analyze costs and other options to quickly instate
optimal purchase agreements. Usin g WebFOCUS (an integrated reporting and information
visualization environment by Information Builders), Travel and Transport empowered
their clients to access information whenever and wherever they need it. Information is
the power that decision makers need the most to make better and faster decisions. When
economic conditions are tight, every managerial decision-every business transactioncounts. Travel and Transport used a variety of reputable vendors/ products (hardware
and software) to create a cutting-edge repo1ting technology so that their clients can make
better, faster decisions to improve their financial well-being.
Source: Information Builde rs, Custome r Success Sto ry, informationbuilders.com/applications/travel-andtransport (accessed February 2013).
4.2
BUSINESS REPORTING DEFINITIONS AND CONCEPTS
Decision makers are in need of information to make accurate and timely decisions.
Information is essentially the contextualization of data. Information is often provided in
the form of a written report (digital or o n paper), although it can also be provided orally.
Simply put, a report is any communication artifact prepared w ith the specific intention of
conveying information in a presentable form to whoever needs it, whenever and wherever
they may need it. It is usually a document that contains information (usually driven from
data and personal experiences) organized in a narrative, graphic, and/ or tabular form,
prepared periodically (recurring) or on an as-required (ad hoc) basis, referring to specific
time periods, events, occurrences, or subjects.
In business settings, types of reports include memos, minutes, lab reports , sales
repo1ts, progress reports, justification reports, compliance repo1ts, annual reports, and
policies and procedures. Reports can fulfill many different (but often related) functions .
Here are a few of the most prevailing ones:
• To ensure that all departments are functioning properly
• To provide information
139
140 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
• To provide the results of an a nalysis
• To persuade others to act
• To create an organizational memory (as part of a knowledge management system)
Reports can be lengthy at times. For those reports, there usually is an executive
summary for those w ho do not have the time and interest to go through it all. The
summary (or abstract, or more commonly called executive brief) should be crafted
carefully, expressing only the important points in a very concise and precise manner, and
lasting no more than a page or two.
In addition to business reports, examples of other types of reports include crime
scene reports, police reports, credit reports, scientific reports, recommendation reports,
white papers, annual reports, auditor's reports, workplace reports, census reports, trip
reports, progress reports, investigative reports, budget reports, policy reports, demographic
reports, credit repo rts, appraisal reports, inspection reports, and military reports, among
others. In this chapter we are particularly interested in business reports.
What Is a Business Report?
A business report is a written document that contains information regarding business
matters. Business reporting (also called enterprise reporting) is an essential part of the
larger drive toward improved managerial decision making and organizational knowledge
management. The foundation of these reports is various sources of data coming from
both inside and outside the organization. Creation of these reports involves ETL (extract,
transform, and load) procedures in coordination w ith a data warehouse and then using
one or mo re reporting tools. While reports can be distributed in print form or via e -mail,
they are typically accessed via a corporate intranet.
Due to the expansion of information technology coupled with the need for improved
competitiveness in businesses, there has been an increase in the use of computing power
to produce unified reports that join different views of the enterprise in one place. Usually,
this reporting process involves querying structured data sources, most of which are created
by using different logical data models and data dictionaries to produce a human-readable,
easily digestible report. These types of business reports allow managers and coworkers
to stay informed and involved, review options and alternatives, and make informed
decisions. Figure 4.1 shows the continuous cycle of data acquisition -+ information
generation-+ decision making -+ business process management. Perhaps the most critical
task in this cyclic process is the reporting (i.e., information generation)- converting data
from different sources into actionable informatio n.
The key to any successful report is clarity, brevity, completeness, and correctness.
In terms of content and format, there are only a few categories of business report: informal, formal, and short. Informal reports are usually up to 10 pages long; are routine and
internal; follow a letter or memo format; and use personal pronouns and contractions.
Forma l reports are 10 to 100 pages lo ng; do not use personal pronouns o r contractio ns;
include a title page, table of contents, and an executive summary; are based on deep
research or an analytic study; and are distributed to external or internal people with a
need-to-know designation. Short reports are to inform people about events or system
status changes and are often periodic, investigative, compliance, and situational focused.
The nature of the report also changes significantly based on whom the report is
created for. Most of the research in effective reporting is dedicated to internal reports
that inform stakeh olders and decision makers within the organization. There are also
external reports between businesses and the government (e.g., for tax purposes or for
regular filings to the Securities and Exchange Commission) . These formal reports are
mostly standardized and periodically filed either nationally or internationally. Standard
Business Reporting, w hich is a collectio n of internatio na l programs instigated by a
Chapter 4 • Business Repo rting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
141
Business Functions
,--------'
Data :
Transactional Records
Exception Event
I
Symbol Count !Description
~
I1 I
Machine
Failure
I
I
I
I
I
I
I
t
Action
(decision)
•
0
I
I
I
I
I
I
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I
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(reporting)
FIGURE 4.1
The Role of Information Reporting in Managerial Decision Making.
number of governments, aims to reduce the regulatory burden for business by simplifying
and standardizing reporting requirements. The idea is to make business the epicenter
when it comes to managing business-to-government reporting obligations. Businesses
conduct their own financial administration; the facts they record and decisions they make
should drive their reporting. The governme nt should be able to receive and process
this information without imposing undue constraints on how businesses administer
their finances. Application Case 4.1 illustrates an excellent example for ove rcoming the
challenges of financial reporting.
Application Case 4.1
Delta Lloyd Group Ensures Accuracy and Efficiency in Financial Reporting
Delta Lloyd Group is a financial services provider
based in the Netherlands. It offers insurance, pensions, investing, and banking se1vices to its private
and corporate clients through its three strong brands:
Delta Lloyd, OHRA, and ABN AMRO Insurance.
Since its founding in 1807, the company has grown
in the Netherlands, Germany, and Belgium, and
now employs around 5,400 pe1manent staff. Its 2011
full-year financial reports show €5.5 billion in gross
written premiums, with shareholders' funds amounting
to €3.9 billion and investments under management
worth nearly €74 billion.
Challenges
Since Delta Lloyd Group is publicly listed on the
NYSE Euronext Amsterdam, it is obliged to produce
annual and half-year repo1ts. Various subsidiaries in
Delta Lloyd Group must also produce reports to fulfill
local legal requirements: for example, banking and
( Continued)
142
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 4.1
(Continued}
insurance reports are obligatory in the Netherlands.
In addition, Delta Lloyd Group must provide reports
to meet international requirements, such as the
IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards)
for accounting and the EU Solvency I Directive for
insurance companies. The data for these reports is
gathered by the group's finance department, which
is divided into small teams in several locations, and
then converted into XML so that it can be published
on the corporate Web site.
Importance of Accuracy
The most challenging part of the reporting process is
the "last mile"-the stage at which the consolidated
figures are cited, formatted, and described to form
the final text of the report. Delta Lloyd Group was
using Microsoft Excel for the last-mile stage of the
repolting process. To minimize the risk of errors,
the finance team needed to manually check all
the data in its reports for accuracy. These manual
checks were vety time-consuming. Arnold Honig,
team leader for reporting at Delta Lloyd Group,
comments: "Accuracy is essential in financial
reporting, since errors could lead to penalties,
reputational damage, and even a negative impact
on the company's stock price. We needed a new
solution that would automate some of the last mile
processes and reduce the risk of manual error. "
Solution
The group decided to implement IBM Cognos
Financial Statement Reporting (FSR). The implementation of the software was completed in just 6 weeks
during the late summer. This rapid implementation
gave the finance department enough time to prepare
a trial draft of the annual report in FSR, based on
figures from the third financial quarter. The successful creation of this draft gave Delta Lloyd Group
enough confidence to use Cognos FSR for the final
version of the annual report, which was published
shortly after the end of the year.
Results
Employees are delighted with the IBM Cognos FSR
solution. Delta Lloyd Group has divided the annual
report into chapters, and each member of the reporting team is responsible for one chapter. Arnold Honig
says, "Since employees can work on documents
simultaneously, they can share the huge workload
involved in repolt generation. Before, the reporting
process was inefficient, because only one person
could work on the report at a time."
Since the workload can be divided up, staff can
complete the report with less overtime. Arnold Honig
comments, "Previously, employees were putting in
2 weeks of overtime during the 8 weeks required to
generate a report. This year, the 10 members of staff
involved in the report generation process worked
25 percent less overtime, even though they were still
getting used to the new software. This is a big w in
for Delta Lloyd Group and its staff." The group is
expecting further reductions in employee overtime
in the future as staff becomes more familiar with
the software.
Accurate Reports
The IBM Cognos FSR solution automates key stages
in the report-writing process by populating the
final report with accurate, up-to-date financial data .
Wherever the text of the report needs to mention
a specific financial figure, the finance team simply
inserts a "variable "- a tag that is linked to an underlying data source. Wherever the variable appears
in the document, FSR will pull the figure through
from the source into the report. If the value of the
figure needs to be changed, the team can simply
update it in the source, and the new value w ill
automatically flow through into the text, maintaining accuracy and consistency of data throughout
the report.
Arnold Honig comments, "The ability to
update figures automatically across the whole report
reduces the scope for manual error inherent in
spreadsheet-based processes and activities. Since
we have full control of our reporting processes,
we can produce better quality reports more efficiently and reduce our business risk. " IBM Cognos
FSR also provides a comparison feature, which
highlights any changes made to reports. This feature
makes it quicker and easier for users to review new
versions of documents and ensure the accuracy of
their reports.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
143
Adhering to Industry Regulations
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
In the future, Delta Lloyd Group is planning to extend
its use of IBM Cognos FSR to generate internal management reports. It will also help Delta Lloyd Group
to meet industry regulatory standards, which are
becoming stricter. Arnold Honig comments, "The EU
Solvency II Directive will come into effect soon, and
our Solvency II reports will need to be tagged with
extensible Business Reporting Language [XBRL]. By
implementing IBM Cognos FSR, which fully suppo1ts
XBRL tagging, we have equipped ourselves to meet
both current and future regulatory requirements."
1. How did Delta Lloyd Group improve accuracy
and efficiency in financial reporting?
2. What were the challenges, the proposed solution,
and the obtained results?
3. Why is it important for Delta Lloyd Group to
comply with industry regulations?
Source: IBM, Customer Success Story, "Delta Lloyd Group
Ensures Accuracy in Financial Reporting," public.dhe.ibm.com/
common/ssi/ecm/en/ytc03561nlen/YTC03561NLEN.PDF
(accessed Febrnary 2013); and www.deltalloydgroep.com .
Even though there are a w ide variety of business repo1ts, the o nes that are often
used for managerial purposes can be grouped into three major categories (Hill, 2013).
METRIC MANAGEMENT REPORTS In many organizations, business performance is
managed through outcome-oriented metrics. For external groups, these are service-level
agreements (SLAs). For internal management, they are key performance indicators (KPis).
Typically, there are enterprise-w ide agreed targets to be tracked over a period of time.
They may be used as part of other management strategies such as Six Sigma or Total
Quality Management (TQM).
DASHBOARD-TYPE REPORTS A popular idea in business reporting in recent years has
been to present a range of different performance indicators o n o ne page, like a dashboard in a car. Typically, dashboard vendors would provide a set of predefined reports
with static elements and fixed structure, but also allow for customization of the dashboard
widgets, views, and set targets for various metrics. It's common to have color-coded traffic lights defined for performance (red, orange, green) to draw management attention to
particular areas. More details on dashboards are given later in this chapter.
BALANCED SCORECARD-TYPE REPORTS This is a method developed by Kaplan and
Norton that attempts to present an integrated view of success in an organization. In addition to financial performance, balanced scorecard-type re ports also include customer,
business process, and learning and growth perspectives. More details on balanced scorecards are provided later in this chapter.
Components of the Business Reporting System
Although each business reporting system has its unique characteristics, there seems to
be a generic pattern that is common across organizations and technology architectures.
Think of this generic pattern as having the business user on one end of the reporting
continuum and the data sources on the other end . Based on the needs and requirements
of the business user, the data is captured, stored, consolidated, and converted to
desired reports using a set of predefined business rules. To be successful, su ch a
system needs an overarching assurance process that covers the e ntire value chain and
moves back and forth , e nsuring that reporting requirements and information delivery
144 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
are properly aligned (Hill, 2008). Following are the most common comp onents of a
business reporting system.
• OLTP (online transaction processing). A system that measures some asp ect
of the real world as events (e.g., transactions) and records them into enterprise
databases. Examples include ERP systems, POS systems, Web servers, RFID readers,
handheld inventory readers, card readers, and so forth.
• Data supply. A system that takes recorded events/ transactions and delivers them
reliably to the reporting system. The data access can be push or pull, depending
on w hether or not it is responsible for initiating the delivery process. It can a lso be
polled (or batched) if the data are transferred periodically, or triggered (or online)
if data are transferred in case of a specific event.
• ETL (extract, transform, and load). This is the intermediate step where these
recorded transactions/events are checked for quality, put into the appropriate
format, and inse1ted into the desired data format.
• Data storage. This is the storage area for the data and metadata. It could be a
flat file o r a spreadsheet, but it is usually a relational database management system
(RDBMS) set up as a data mart, data warehouse, or operatio nal data store (ODS); it
often employs online analytical processing (OLAP) functions like cubes.
• Business logic. The explicit steps for how the recorded transactions/ events are
to be converted into metrics, scorecards, and dashboards.
• Publication. The system that builds the various reports and hosts them (for
users) or disseminates them (to users). These systems may also provide notification,
annotation, collaboration, and other services.
• Assurance. A good business reporting system is exp ected to offer a quality
service to its users. This includes determining if and when the right information is to
be delivered to the right people in the right way/format.
Application Case 4.2 is an excelle nt example to illustrate the power and the utility of automated report generation for a large (and, at a time of natural crisis, som ewhat
chaotic) organization like FEMA.
Application Case 4.2
Flood of Paper Ends at FEMA
Staff at the Federal Emergency Management Agency
(FEMA), a U.S. federal agency that coordinates
disaster response w hen the President declares a
national disaster, always got two floods at o nce.
First, water covered the land. Next, a flood of paper,
required to administer the National Flood Insurance
Program (NFIP), covered their desks-pallets
and pallets of green-striped reports poured off a
mainframe printer and into their offices. Individual
reports were sometimes 18 inches thick, w ith a
nugget of informatio n about insura nce claims,
premiums, or payments buried in them somewhere.
Bill Barton and Mike Miles don't claim to be
able to do anything about the weather, but the
project manager and computer scientist, respectively,
from Computer Sciences Corporation (CSC) have
used WebFOCUS software from Information
Builde rs to turn back the flood of paper generated
by the NFIP. The program allows the government
to work together w ith national insurance companies
to collect flood insurance premiums and pay claims
for flooding in communities that adopt flood con trol
measures. As a result of CSC's work, FEMA staff no
lo nger leaf through p aper reports to find the d ata
they need. Instead, they browse insurance data
posted on NFIP's BureauNet intranet site, select just
the informatio n they want to see, and get an onscreen report or download the data as a spreadsheet.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
And that is only the start of the savings that
WebFOCUS has provided. The number of times that
NFIP staff asks CSC for special reports has dropped
in half, because NFIP staff can generate many of the
special reports they need without calling on a programmer to develop them. Then there is the cost
of creating BureauNet in the first place. Barton estimates that using conventional Web and database
software to export data from FEMA's mainframe,
store it in a new database, and link that to a Web
server would have cost about 100 times as muchmore than $500,000- and taken about two years
to complete, compared w ith the few months Miles
spent on the WebFOCUS solution .
When Tropical Storm Allison, a huge slug of
sodden, swirling clouds, moved out of the Gulf of
Mexico onto the Texas and Louisiana coastline in June
2001 , it killed 34 people, most from drowning; damaged or destroyed 16,000 homes and businesses; and
displaced more than 10,000 families. President George
W. Bush declared 28 Texas counties disaster areas,
and FEMA moved in to help. This was the first serious
test for BureauNet, and it delivered. This first comprehensive use of BureauNet resulted in FEMA field staff
readily accessing what they needed and w hen tl1ey
needed it, and asking for many new types of reports.
Fortunately, Miles and WebFOCUS were up to the
task. In some cases, Barton says, "FEMA would ask for
a new type of report one day, and Miles would have it
on BureauNet the next day, ilianks to ilie speed wiili
which he could create new reports in WebFOCUS. "
The sudden demand o n the system had little
impact on its performance, notes Barton. "It handled
ilie demand just fine, " he says. "We had no problems with it at all." "And it made a huge difference
to FEMA and the job they had to do. They had never
had that level of access before, never had been able
to just click on their desktop and generate such
detailed and specific reports. "
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What is FEMA and what does it do?
2. What are the main challenges that FEMA faces?
3. How d id FEMA improve its inefficient reporting
practices?
Sources: Infomiation Builders, Customer Success Story, "Useful
Inf0m1ation
Flows
at
Disaster
Response
Agency,"
infonnationbuilders.com/applications/fema (accessed Januaiy
2013); and fema.gov.
SECTION 4.2 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is a report? What are they used for,
2. What is a business report? What are the main characteristics of a good business
report?
3. Describe the cyclic process of management and comment on the role of business
reports.
4. List and describe the three major categories of business reports.
5. What are the main components of a business reporting system?
4.3
145
DATA AND INFORMATION VISUALIZATION
Data visualization (or more appropriately, information visualization) has been defined
as, "the use of visual representations to explore, make sense of, and communicate data"
(Few, 2008). Although the name that is commonly used is data visualization, usually
what is meant by this is information visualizatio n . Since information is the aggregation, summarizations, and contextualization of data (raw facts), w hat is portrayed in
visualizations is the information and not the data. However, since the two terms data
visualization and information visualization are used interchangeably and synonymously,
in this chapter we w ill follow suit.
Data visualization is closely related to the fields of information graphics, information
visualizatio n , scientific visua lization , and statistical graphics. Until recently, the major
146
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
forms of data visualization available in both business intelligence applications have
included charts and graphs, as well as the other types of visual elements used to create
scorecards and dashboards. Application Case 4.3 shows how visual reporting tools can
help facilitate cost-effective business information creations and sharing.
Application Case 4.3
Tableau Saves Blastrac Thousands of Dollars with Simplified Information Sharing
Blastrac, a self-proclaimed global leader in portable
surface preparation technologies and equipment
(e.g., shot blasting, grinding, polishing, scarifying,
scraping, milling, and cutting equipment), depended
on the creation and distribution of reports across the
organization to make business decisions. However,
the company did not have a consistent reporting
method in place and, consequently, preparation of
reports for the company's various needs (sales data,
working capital, inventory, purchase analysis, etc.)
was tedious. Blastrac's analysts each spent nearly
one whole day per week (a total of 20 to 30 hours)
extracting data from the multiple enterprise resource
planning (ERP) systems, loading it into several Excel
spreadsheets, creating filtering capabilities and
establishing predefined pivot tables.
Not only were these massive spreadsheets
often inaccurate and consistently hard to understand, but also they were virtually useless for the
sales team, which couldn't work with the complex
format. In addition, each consumer of the reports
had different needs.
Blastrac Vice President and CIO Dan Murray
began looking for a solution to the company's reporting troubles. He quickly ruled out the rollout of a
single ERP system, a multimillion-dollar proposition.
He also eliminated the possibility of an enterprisewide business intelligence (BI) platform deployment
because of cost-quotes from five different vendors ranged from $130,000 to over $500,000. What
Murray needed was a solution that was affordable,
could deploy quickly without disrupting current systems, and was able to represent data consistently
regardless of the multiple currencies Blastrac operates in.
The Solution and the Results
Working with IT services consultant firm, Interworks,
Inc., out of Oklahoma, Murray and team finessed
the data sources. Murray then deployed two data
visualization tools from Tableau Software: Tableau
Desktop, a visual data analysis solution that allowed
Blastrac analysts to quickly and easily create intuitive and visually compelling reports, and Tableau
Reader, a free application that enabled everyone
across the company to directly interact with the
reports, filtering, sorting, extracting, and printing
data as it fit their needs-and at a total cost of less
than one-third the lowest competing BI quote.
With only one hour per week now required to
create reports-a 95 percent increase in productivity-and updates to these reports happening automatically through Tableau, Murray and his team are
able to proactively identify major business events
reflected in company data- such as an exceptionally large sale-instead of reacting to incoming
questions from employees as they had been forced
to do previously.
"Prior to deploying Tableau, I spent countless
hours customizing and creating new reports based
on individual requests, which was not efficient or
productive for me," said Murray. "With Tableau ,
we create one report for each business area, and,
with very little training, they can explore the d ata
themselves. By deploying Tableau, I not only
saved thousands of dollars and endless months
of deployment, but I'm also now able to create a
product that is infinitely more valuable for people
across the organization.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did Blastrac achieve significant cost savin-
gin reporting and information sharing?
2. What were the challenge, the proposed solution,
and the obtained results?
Sources: tableausoftware.com/learn/stories/spotlight-blastric;
blastrac.com/about-us; and interworks.com.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
To better understand the current and future trends in the field of data visualization,
it helps to begin with some historical context.
A Brief History of Data Visualization
Despite the fact that predecessors to data visualization date back to the second century
AD, most developments have occurred in the last two and a half centuries, predominantly
during the last 30 years (Few, 2007). Although visualization has not been widely
recognized as a discipline until fairly recently, today's most popular visual forms date
back a few centuries. Geographical exploration, mathematics, and popularized history
spurred the creation of early maps, graphs, and timelines as far back as the 1600s, but
William Playfair is widely credited as the inventor of the modern cha1t, having created
the first widely distributed line and bar charts in his Commercial and Political Atlas of
1786 and what is generally considered to be the first pie chart in his Statistical Breviary,
published in 1801 (see Figure 4.2).
Perhaps the most notable innovator of information graphics during this period was
Charles Joseph Minard, who graphically portrayed the losses suffered by Napoleon's army
in the Russian campaign of 1812 (see Figure 4.3). Beginning at the Polish-Russian border,
the thick band shows the size of the army at each position. The path of Napoleon's
retreat from Moscow in the bitterly cold winter is depicted by the dark lower band, which
is tied to temperature and time scales. Popular visualization expert, author, and critic
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147
148 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
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Source: en.wikipedia.org.
Edward Tufte says that this "may well be the best statistical graphic ever drawn." In this
graphic Minard managed to simultaneously represent several data dimensions (the size
of the army, direction of moveme nt, geographic locations, outside temperature, etc.) in
an artistic and informative manner. Many more great visualizations were created in the
1800s, and most of them are chronicled in Tufte's Web site (edwardtufte.com) and his
visualization books.
The 1900s saw the rise of a more formal, empirical attitude toward visualization,
which tended to focus on aspects such as color, value scales, and labeling. In the mid1900s, cartographer and theorist Jacques Bertin published his Semiologie Graphique,
which some say serves as the theoretical foundation of modern information visualization.
While most of his patterns are e ither outdated by more recent research or completely
inapplicable to digital media, many are still very relevant.
In the 2000s the Internet has emerged as a new medium for visualization and
brought with it a whole lot of new tricks and capabilities. Not only has the worldwide,
digital distribution of both data and visualization made them more accessible to a broader
audience (raising visual literacy along the way), but it has also spurred the design of new
forms that incorporate interaction, animation, graphics-rendering technology unique to
screen media, and real-time data feeds to create immersive environments for communicating and consuming data.
Companies and individuals are, seemingly all of a sudden, interested in data; that
interest has, in turn, sparked a need for visual tools that help them understand it. Cheap hardware sensors and do-it-yourself frameworks for building your own system are driving down
the costs of collecting and processing data. Countless other applications, software tools,
and low-level code libraries are springing up to help people collect, o rganize, manipulate,
visualize, and unde rstand data from practically any source. The Internet has also served as a
fantastic distribution channel for visualizations; a diverse community of designers, programmers, cartographers, tinkerers, and data wonks has assembled to disseminate all sorts of
new ideas and tools for working with data in both visual and nonvisual forms.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
149
Google Maps has also single-handedly democratized both the interface conventions
(click to pan, double-click to zoom) and the technology (256-pixel square map tiles with
predictable file names) for displaying interactive geography online, to the extent that
most people just know what to do when they're presented with a map online. Flash has
served well as a cross-browser platform on which to design and develop rich, beautiful
Internet applications incorporating interactive data visualization and maps; now, new
browser-native technologies such as canvas and SVG (sometimes collectively included
under the umbrella of HTML5) are emerging to challenge Flash's supremacy and extend
the reach of dynamic visualization interfaces to mobile devices.
The future of data/ information visualization is very hard to predict. We can only
extrapolate from what has already been invented: more three-dimensional visualization,
more immersive experience with multidimensional data in a virtual reality environment,
and holographic visualization of information. There is a pretty good chance that we will see
something that we have never seen in the information visualization realm invented before
the end of this decade. Application Case 4.4 shows how Dana-Farber Cancer Institute used
information visualization to better understand the cancer vaccine clinical trials.
Application Case 4.4
TIBCO Spotfire Provides Dana-Farber Cancer Institute with Unprecedented Insight into Cancer
Vaccine Clinical Trials
When Karen Maloney, business development manager
of the Cancer Vaccine Center (CVC) at Dana-Farber
Cancer Institute in Boston, decided to investigate the
competitive landscape of the cancer vaccine field, she
looked to a strategic planning and marketing MBA
class at Babson College in Wellesley, Massachusetts,
for help with the research project. There she met
Xiaohong Cao, whose bioinformatics background led
to the decision to focus on clinical vaccine trials as
representative of potential competition. This became
Dana-Farber CVC's first organized attempt to assess
in-depth the cancer vaccine market.
Cao focused on the analysis of 645 clinical trials related to cancer vaccines. The data was
extracted in XML from the ClinicalTrials.gov Web
site, and included categories such as "Summary
of Purpose," 'Trial Sponsor," "Phase of the Trial,"
"Recruiting Status," and "Location." Additional statistics on cancer types, including incidence and survival rates, were retrieved from the National Cancer
Institute Surveillance data.
Challenge and Solution
Although information from clinical vaccine trials is
organized fairly well into categories and can be downloaded, there is great inconsistency and redundancy
inherent in the data registry. To gain a good understanding of the landscape, both an overview and
an in-depth analytic capability were required simultaneously. It would have been very difficult, not to
mention incredibly time-consuming, to analyze information from the multiple data sources separately, in
order to understand the relationships underlying the
data or identify trends and patterns using spreadsheets. And to attempt to use a traditional business
intelligence tool would have required significant IT
resources. Cao proposed using the TIBCO Spotfire
DXP (Spotfire) computational and visual analysis tool
for data exploration and discovery.
Results
With the help of Cao and Spotfire software, DanaFarber's CVC developed a first-of-its-kind analysis
approach to rapidly extract complex data specifically for cancer vaccines from the major clinical
trial reposit01y. Summarization and visualization
of these data represents a cost-effective means of
making informed decisions about future cancer
vaccine clinical trials. The findings are helping the
CVC at Dana-Farber understand its competition and
the diseases they are working on to he lp shape its
strategy in the marketplace.
(Continued)
150 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 4.4
(Continued}
Spotfire software's visual and computational
analysis approach provides the CVC at Dana-Farber
and the research community at large with a better understanding of the cancer vaccine clinical
trials landscape and enables rapid insight into the
hotspots of cancer vaccine activity, as well as into
the identification of neglected cancers.
"The whole field of medical research is going
through an enormous transformation, in part
driven by information technology, " adds Brusic.
"Using a tool like Spotfire for analysis is a promising area in this field because it helps integrate
information from multiple sources, ask specific
questions, and rapidly extract new knowledge
from the data that was previously not easily
attainable."
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did Dana-Farber Cancer Institute use TIBCO
Spotfire to enhance information reporting and
visualization?
2. What were the challenge, the proposed solution,
and the obtained results?
Sources: TIBCO Spotfire , Customer Success Story, "TIBCO Spotfire
Provides Dana-Farber Cancer Institute with Unprecedented Insight
into Cancer Vaccine Clinical Trials," spotfire.tibco.com/-/media/
content-center/case-studies/dana-farber.ashx (accessed March
2013); and Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, dana-farber.org.
SECTION 4.3 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is data visualization? Why is it needed?
2. What are the historical roots of data visualization?
3. Carefully analyze Charles Joseph Minard's graphical portrayal of Napoleon's march.
Identify and comment on all of the information dimensions captured in this ancient
diagram.
4. Who is Edward Tufte? Why do you think we should know about his work?
5. What do you think the "next big thing" is in data visualization?
4.4
DIFFERENT TYPES OF CHARTS AND GRAPHS
Often end users of business analytics systems are not sure what type of chart or graph
to use for a specific purpose. Some charts and/ o r graphs are better at answering certain
types of questions. What follows is a short description of the types of charts and/ or
graphs commonly found in most business analytics tools and what types of question that
they are better at answering/analyzing.
Basic Charts and Graphs
What follows are the basic charts and graphs that are commonly used for information
visualization.
LINE CHART Line charts are perhaps the most frequently used graphical visuals for
time-series data. Line charts (or line graphs) show the relationship between two variables;
they most often are used to track changes or trends over time (having one of the variables set to time o n the x -axis). Line charts sequentially connect individual data points
to help infer changing trends over a period of time. Line charts are often used to show
time-dependent changes in the values of some measure such as changes on a specific
stock price over a 5-year period or changes in the number of daily customer service calls
over a month.
Chapter 4 • Business Repo rting , Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
BAR CHART Bar charts are among the most basic visuals used for data representation.
Bar charts are effective w hen you have no minal data o r numerical data that splits nicely
into different categories so you can quickly see comparative resu lts and trends w ithin
your data. Bar charts are often used to compare data across multiple categories su ch as
pe rcent advertising spending by departments or by p roduct categories. Bar charts can be
vertically or horizontally oriented. They can also be stacked on top of each other to show
multiple dimensions in a single chart.
PIE CHART Pie charts are visually appealing, as the name implies, pie-looking charts.
Because they are so visually attractive , they are often incorrectly used. Pie charts should
only be used to illustrate relative p roportions of a sp ecific measure. For instance, they
can be use d to show relative percentage of advertising budget spent on different product
lines or they can show relative propo rtions of majo rs d eclared by college students in their
sopho more year. If the number of categories to show a re more than just a few (say, more
than 4), one should serio usly consider using a bar chart instead of a pie chart.
Scatter plo ts are ofte n used to explo re relationships between two o r
three variables (in 2D o r 2D visuals). Since they are visual explo ration tools, having
mo re than three variables, translating into more than three dimensions, is not easily
achievable . Scatter plots are an effective w ay to explo re the existence of trends, concentrations, and outliers. For instance , in a two-variable (two-axis) graph , a scatte r plot can
be used to illustrate the co-relationship be tween age a nd weight of heart disease patients
or it can illustrate the re latio nship between number of customer care representatives and
numbe r of open customer service claims. Often, a trend line is superimposed on a twodimensional scatter plo t to illustrate the nature of the relatio nship.
SCATTER PLOT
BUBBLE CHART Bubble charts are often enhanced versio ns of scatter plo ts. The bubble
chart is not a new visualization type; instead, it sho uld be view ed as a technique to
enrich data illustrated in scatter plots (or even geographic map s). By varying the size and/
or colo r of the circles, one can add a dditional data d ime nsions, offering more enriched
meaning about the data. For instance, it can be used to show a competitive view of
college-level class attendance by majo r and by time of the day or it can be used to show
profit margin by product type and by geographic regio n.
Specialized Charts and Graphs
The graphs and charts that we review in this section are either derived from the basic
charts as spe cial cases o r they are re latively new and specific to a problem typ e and/ o r
an application area.
HISTOGRAM Graphically sp eaking, a histogram looks just like a bar chart. The difference
between histograms and generic bar charts is the information that is po rtrayed in them .
Histograms are used to show the frequency distribution of a variable , or several variables.
In a histogram, the x-axis is often used to show the categories or ranges, and the y -axis
is used to show the measures/ values/frequencies. Histograms show the distributional
shape of the data . That way, one can visu ally examine if the data is distributed normally,
exp onentially, and so o n . Fo r instance, o ne can use a histogram to illustrate the exam
performance of a class, w here distribution of the grades as well as comparative analysis
of individual results can be shown ; or o ne can use a histogram to show age distribution
of the ir custome r base.
151
152 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
GANTT CHART Gantt charts are a special case of horizontal bar charts that are used to
portray project timelines, project tasks/ activity durations, and overlap amongst the tasks/
activities. By showing start and end dates/ times of tasks/activities and the overlapping
relationships, Gantt charts make an invaluable aid for management and control of
projects. For instance, Gantt charts are often used to show project timeline, talk overlaps,
relative task completions (a partial bar illustrating the completion percentage inside a
bar that shows the actual task duration), resources assigned to each task, milestones,
and deliverables.
PERT CHART PERT charts (also called network diagrams) are developed primarily
to simplify the planning and scheduling of large and complex projects. A PERT chart
shows precedence relationships among the project activities/ tasks. It is composed
of nodes (represented as circles or rectangles) and edges (represented with directed
arrows). Based on the selected PERT chart convention, either nodes or the edges may
be used to represent the project activities/tasks (activity-on-node versus activity-on-arrow
representation schema).
GEOGRAPHIC MAP When the data set includes any kind of location data (e.g., physical
addresses, postal codes, state names or abbreviations, country names, latitude/ longitude,
or some type of custom geographic encoding), it is better and more informative to see
the data on a map. Maps usually are used in conjunction with other charts and graphs,
as opposed to by themselves. For instance, one can use maps to show distribution
of customer service requests by product type (depicted in pie charts) by geographic
locations. Often a large variety of information (e.g., age distribution, income distribution,
education, economic growth, population changes, etc.) can be portrayed in a geographic
map to help decide where to open a new restaurant or a new service station. These types
of systems are often called geographic information systems (GIS).
Bullet graphs are often used to show progress toward a goal. A bullet graph
is essentially a variation of a bar chart. Often they are used in place of gauges, meters,
and thermometers in dashboards to more intuitively convey the meaning within a much
smaller space. Bullet graphs compare a primary measure (e.g., year-to-date revenue) to
one or more other measures (e.g., annual revenue target) and present this in the context
of defined performance metrics (e.g ., sales quota). A bullet graph can intuitively illustrate
how the prima1y measure is performing against overall goals (e.g., how close a sales
representative is to achieving his/ her annual quota).
BULLET
Heat maps are great visuals to illustrate the comparison of continuous values
across two categories using color. The goal is to help the user quickly see w here the
intersection of the categories is strongest and weakest in terms of numerical values of
the measure being analyzed. For instance, heat maps can be used to show segmentation
analysis of the target market where the measure (color gradient would be the purchase
amount) and the dimensions would be age and income distribution.
HEAT MAP
HIGHLIGHT TABLE Highlight tables are intended to take heat maps one step further. In
addition to showing how data inte rsects by using color, highlight tables add a number
o n top to provide additional detail. That is, it is a two-dimensional table w ith cells
populated with numerical values and gradients of colors. For instance, one can show
sales representative p erformance by product type and by sales volume .
Tree maps display hierarchical (tree-structured) data as a set of nested
rectangles. Each branch of the tree is given a rectangle, which is the n tiled with
TREE MAP
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
smaller rectangles representing sub-branches. A leaf node's rectangle has an area proportional to a specified dimension on the data. Often the leaf nodes are colored to
show a separate dimension of the data. When the color and size dimensions are
correlated in some way w ith the tree structure, one can often easily see patterns
that would be difficult to spot in other ways, such as if a certain color is particularly
relevant. A second advantage of tree maps is that, by construction, they make efficient
use of space. As a result, they can legibly display thousands of items on the screen
simulta neously.
Even though these charts and graphs cover a major part of what is commonly used
in information visualization, they by no means cover it all. Nowadays, one can find many
other specialized graphs and charts that serve a specific purpose. Furthermore, current
trends are to combine/ hybridize and animate these charts for better looking and more
intuitive visualization of today's complex and volatile data sources. For instance, the
interactive, animated, bubble charts available at the Gapminder Web site (gapminder.
org) provide an intriguing way of exploring world health, wealth, and population data
from a multidimensional perspective. Figure 4.4 depicts the sorts of displays available
at the site. In this graph, population size, life expectancy, and per capita income at the
continent level are shown; also given is a time-varying animation that shows how these
variables changed over time.
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153
154 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
SECTION 4.4 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Why do you think there are large numbers of different types of charts and graphs?
2. What are the main differences among line, bar, and pie charts? When should you
choose to use one over the other?
3. Why would you use a geographic map? What other types of charts can be combined
with a geographic map?
4. Find two more charts that are not covered in this section, and comment on their usability.
4.5
THE EMERGENCE OF DATA VISUALIZATION
AND VISUAL ANALYTICS
As Seth Grimes (2009) has noted, there is a "growing palette" of data visualization
techniques and tools that enable the users of business analytics and business intelligence
systems to better "communicate relationships, add historical context, uncover hidden
correlations and tell persuasive stories that clarify and call to action." The latest Magic
Quadrant on Business Intelligence and Analytics Platforms released by Gartner in February
2013 further emphasizes the importance of visualization in business intelligence. As the
chart shows, most of the solution providers in the Leaders quadrant are either relatively
recently founded information visualization companies (e.g., Tableau Software, QlikTech,
Tibco Spotfire) or are well-established, large analytics companies (e.g., SAS, IBM,
Microsoft, SAP, MicroStrategy) that are increasingly focusing their efforts in informatio n
visualization and visual analytics. Details on the Gartner's latest Magic Quadrant are given
in Technology Insights 4.1.
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 4.1 Gartner Magic Quadrant for Business
Intelligence and Analytics Platforms
Ganner, Inc. , the creato r of Magic Quadrants, is a leading information technology research and
advisory compan y. Fo unded in 1979, Gartner has 5,300 associates, including 1,280 research analysts and consultants, and numerous clients in 85 countries.
Magic Quadrant is a research method designed and implemented by Gartner to mo nitor
and evaluate the progress and positions of companies in a specific, techno logy-based market.
By applying a graphical treatment and a uniform set of evaluation criteria, Magic Quadrant helps
users to unde rstand how techno logy providers are positioned w ithin a market.
Gartner changed the name of this Magic Quadrant from "Business Intelligence Platforms"
to "Business Intelligence and Analytics Platforms" in 2012 to emphasize the growing imponance
of analytics capabilities to the information systems that o rganizations are now building. Gartner
defines the business intelligence and analytics platform market as a software platform that
delivers 15 capabilities across three categories: integratio n, information delivery, and analysis.
These capabilities enable organizations to build precise systems of classification and measureme nt to suppo rt decision making and improve performance.
Figure 4.5 illustrates the latest Magic Quadrant for Business Intelligence and Analytics
platforms. Magic Quadrant places providers in four groups (niche players, challengers,
visionaries, and leade rs) along two dimensions: completeness of vision (x-axis) and ability to
execute (y-axis). As the quadrant clearly shows, most of the well-known BI/ BA providers are
positioned in the "leade rs" category w hile many of the lesser known , relatively new, emerging
providers are positioned in the "niche players" category.
Right now, most of the activity in the business inte lligence and analytics platform m arket
is from organizations that are tty ing to mature the ir visualization capabilities and to move from
descriptive to diagnostic (i.e., predictive and prescriptive) analytics. The vendors in the market
have overwhelming ly concentrated on meeting this use r demand. If there were a single m arket
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting , Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
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~ - - - - - - - - < Completeness of vision >------A s of February 2013
FIGURE 4.5
Magic Quadrant for Business Intelligence and Analytics Platforms.
Source: gartner.com.
theme in 2012, it would be that data d iscovery/ visualization became a mainstream architecture. Fo r years, data d iscovery/visualization vendors- such as QlikTech, Salient Management
Company, Tableau Software, and Tibco Spo tfire- received more positive feedback than vend ors
offering OLAP cube and semantic-layer-based architectures. In 2012, the market responded:
• MicroStrategy significantly improved Visual Insight.
• SAP launched Visual Intelligence.
• SAS launched Visual Analytics.
• Microsoft bolstered PowerPivot w ith Power View.
• IBM launched Cognos Insight.
• Oracle acquired Endeca.
• Actuate acquired Quiterian.
This e mphasis on data d iscovery/ visualization from most of the leaders in the marketw hich are now promoting tools w ith business-user-friendly data integration, couple d w ith
e mbedded sto rage and computing layers (typically in-memory/ columnar) and unfettered
drilling- accelerates the tre nd toward decentralizatio n and user empowerment of BI and
analytics, a nd g reatly enables o rganizatio ns' ability to perform d iagnostic analytics.
Source: Gartner Magic Quadrant, re leased o n February 5, 2013, gartner.com (accessed February 2013).
In business intelligence and analytics, the key challenges for visu alization have
revolved around the intuitive representation of large, complex data sets with multiple
dimensions and measures. For the most part, the typical charts, graphs, and other visual
elements used in these applicatio ns usu ally involve two dimensions, sometimes three,
and fairly sma ll subsets of data sets. In contrast, the data in these systems reside in a
155
156 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
data warehouse. At a minimum, these warehouses involve a range of dimensions (e.g.,
product, location, organizational structure, time), a range of measures, and millions of
cells of data. In a n effort to address these challenges, a number of researchers have
developed a variety of new visualization techniques.
Visual Analytics
Visual analytics is a recently coined term that is often used loosely to mean nothing more
than information visualization . What is meant by visual analytics is the combination
of visualizatio n and predictive analytics. While info rmation visualization is a imed at
answering "what happened" and "what is happening" and is closely associated with
business intelligence (routine reports, scorecards, and dashboards), visual analytics is
aimed at answering "why is it happening," "what is more likely to happen," and is usually
associated with business analytics (forecasting, segmentation, correlation analysis).
Many of the informatio n visualization vendors are adding the capabilities to call themselves visual analytics solution providers. One of the top, long-time analytics solution
providers, SAS Institute, is approaching it from another direction. They are embedding
their analytics capabilities into a high-performance data visualization e nvironment that
they call visual analytics.
Visual or not visual, automated or manual, online or paper based, business reporting
is not much different than telling a story. Technology Insights 4.2 provides a different,
unorthodox viewpoint to better business reporting.
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 4.2
and Visualization
Telling Great Stories with Data
Everyone who has data to analyze has stories to tell, w hether it's diagnosing the reasons for
manufacturing defects, selling a new idea in a way that captures the imagination of your target
audience, or informing colleagues about a panicular customer service improvement p rogram.
And when it's telling the story behind a big strategic choice so that you and your senior
management team can make a solid decision, providing a fact-based story can be especially
challenging. In all cases, it's a big job. You want to be interesting and memorable; you know
you need to keep it simple for your busy executives and colleagues. Yet you also know you
have to be factual, detail oriented, and data driven, especially in today's metric-centric world.
It's tempting to present just the data and facts, but when colleagues and senior management are overwhelmed by data and facts w ithout context, you lose. We have all experienced
presentations with large slide decks, only to find that the audience is so overwhelmed w ith data
that they don't know what to think, or they are so completely tuned o ut, they take away only a
fraction of the key points.
Stan engaging your executive team and explaining your strategies and results more
powerfully by approaching your assignment as a story. You w ill need the "w hat" of your story
(the facts and data) but you also need the "who?," the "how?," the "why?," and the often missed
"so what?" It's these story elements that will make your data relevant a nd tangible for your
audience. Creating a good story can a id you and senior management in focusing on w hat
is important.
Why Story?
Stories bring life to data and facts. They can help you make sense and orde r o ut of a disparate
collection of facts. They make it easier to remember key points and can paint a vivid picture of
what the future can look like . Stories also create interactivity- people put themselves into stories
and can relate to the situatio n.
Chapter 4 • Business Repo rting , Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
Cultures have long used sto1ytelling to pass on knowledge and content. In some cultures,
storytelling is critical to the ir identity. For example, in New Zealand, some of the Maori people
tattoo their faces with mokus. A moku is a facial tattoo containing a story about ancesto rs- the
family tribe . A man may have a tattoo design on his face that shows features of a hammerhead
to highlight unique qualities about his lineage. The design he chooses signifies w hat is part of
his "true self' and his ancestral home.
Likewise, whe n we are trying to unde rstand a sto ry, the sto ryteller navigates to finding the
"true north." If senio r management is looking to discuss how they will respond to a competitive
change, a good story can make sense and o rder out of a lot of noise. For example, you may
have fa cts and data from two studies, o ne including results from an advertising study and o ne
from a product satisfactio n study. Developing a story for w hat you measured across both studies
can help people see the w hole whe re there we re disparate parts. For rallying your distributors
around a new product, you can e mploy a story to give vision to what the future can look like.
Most impo rtantly, storytelling is inte ractive- typically the presenter uses words and pictures that
audie nce members can put themselves into . As a result, they become more e ngaged and better
unde rstand the informatio n.
So What Is a Good Story?
Most people can easily rattle off their favorite film o r book. Or they re member a funny story
that a colleague recently shared. Why do people remembe r these stories? Because they contain
certain characte ristics. First, a good story has great characte rs. In some cases, the reade r or
viewer has a vicarious experie nce w he re they become involved with the characte r. The characte r the n has to be faced w ith a challenge that is difficult but believable . There must be hurdles
that the characte r overcomes. And finally, the o utcome or prognosis is clear by the e nd of the
sto ry. The situation may not be resolved-but the story has a clear endpoint.
Think of Your Analysis as a Story-Use a Story Structure
When crafting a data-rich story, the first objective is to find the sto1y . Who are the characters?
What is the drama o r challe nge? What hurdles have to be overcome? And at the end of your
sto ry, what do you want your audience to do as a result?
Once you know the core sto ry, craft your othe r story ele me nts: define your characters,
unde rstand the challenge, identify the hurdles, and crystallize the outcome or decision
questio n. Make sure you are clear with what you want people to do as a result. This will
shape how your audience will recall your sto1y. With the sto1y ele me nts in place, write out
the sto ryboard, which represents the structure and form of your sto1y. Although it's tempting
to skip this ste p , it is better first to unde rsta nd the sto ry you a re telling and the n to focus o n
the presentatio n structure and form. Once the storyboard is in place, the other eleme nts will
fall into place. The storyboard will help you to think abo ut the best analogies or meta pho rs, to
clearly set up challe nge o r o pportunity, and to finally see the flow and transitions needed. The
sto1y board also helps you focus on key visuals (graphs, charts, and graphics) that you need
your executives to recall.
In summary, do n't be afraid to use data to tell great stories. Being factual, detail oriented,
a nd data driven is critical in today's metric-centric world bu t it does no t have to mean being boring and le ngthy. In fa ct, by finding the real stories in your data and following the best practices,
you can get people to focus o n your message- and thus o n what's im portant. He re are those
best practices:
1. Think of your analysis as a story-use a story structure .
2. Be authentic- your story will flow.
3. Be visual-think of yourself as a fil m edito r.
4. Make it easy for your audience and you.
5. Invite a nd direct discussio n.
Source: Elissa Fink and Susan J. Moore, "Five Best Practices for Te lling Great Stories w ith Data," 2012, w h ite
pa per by Tableau Software, Inc., tableausoftware.com/whitepapers/telling-stories-with-data (accessed
February 2013).
157
158 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
High-Powered Visual Analytics Environments
Due to the increasing demand for visual analytics coupled with fast-growing data volumes,
there is an exponential movement toward investing in highly efficient visualization systems.
With their latest move into visual analytics, the statistical software giant SAS Institute is
now among the ones who are leading this wave. Their new product, SAS Visual Analytics,
is a very high-performance, in-me mory solution for exploring massive amounts of data
in a very short time (almost instantaneously). It empowers users to spot patterns, identify
opportunities for further analysis, and convey visual results via Web reports or a mobile
platform such as tablets and smartphones. Figure 4.6 shows the high-level architecture of
the SAS Visual Analytics platform. On one end of the architecture, there are universal Data
Builder and Administrator capabilities, leading into Explorer, Report Designer, and Mobile
BI modules, collectively providing an end-to-end visual analytics solution.
Some of the key benefits proposed by SAS analytics are:
• Empower all users with data exploration techniques and approachable analytics to
drive improved decision making. SAS Visual Analytics enables different types of users
to conduct fast, thorough explorations on all available data. Subsetting or sampling
of data is not required. Easy-to-use, interactive Web interfaces broaden the audience for analytics, enabling everyone to glean new insights. Users can look at more
options, make more precise decisions, and drive success even faster than before.
• Answer complex questions faster, enhancing the contributions from your analytic
talent. SAS Visual Analytics augments the data discovery and exploration process by
providing extremely fast results to enable better, more focused analysis. Analytically
savvy users can identify areas of opportunity or concern from vast amounts of data
so further investigation can take place quickly.
• Improve information sharing and collaboration. Large numbers of users, including
those with limited analytical skills, can quickly view and interact with reports and
charts via the Web, Adobe PDF files , and iPad mobile devices, w hile IT maintains
control of the underlying data and security. SAS Visual Analytics provides the
right information to the right person at the right time to improve productivity and
organizational knowledge.
FIGURE 4.6
An Overview of SAS Visual Analytics Architecture.
Source: SAS.com.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
FIGURE 4.7
A Screenshot from SAS Visual Analytics.
Source: SAS.com.
• Liberate IT by giving users a new way to access the information they need. Free
IT from the constant barrage of demands from users who need access to different
amounts of data, different data views, ad hoc reports, and one-off requests for
information . SAS Visual Analytics e nables IT to easily load and prepare data for
multiple users. Once data is loaded and available, users can dynamically explore
data, create reports, and share information on their own .
• Provide room to grow at a self-determined pace. SAS Visual Analytics provides the
option of using commodity hardware or database appliances from EMC Greenplum
and Teradata. It is designed from the ground up for performance optimization and
scalability to meet the needs of any size organization.
Figure 4.7 shows a screenshot of an SAS Analytics p latform w here time-series
forecasting and confidence intervals around the forecast are depicted. A wealth of information on SAS Visual Analytics, along with access to the tool itself for teaching and learning purposes, can be fou nd at teradatauniversitynetwork.com.
SECTION 4.5 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the reasons for the recent emergence of visual analytics?
2. Look at Gartner's Magic Quadrant for Business Intelligence and Analytics Platforms.
What do you see? Discuss and justify your observations.
3. What is the difference between information visualization and visual an alytics?
4. Why should storytelling be a part of your reporting and data visualization?
5. What is a high-powered visual ana lytics environme nt? Why do we need it?
159
160
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
4.6
PERFORMANCE DASHBOARDS
Performance dashboards are common components of most, if n ot all, performance management systems, performance measurement systems, BPM software suites, and BI platforms. Dashboards provide visual displays of important information that is consolidated
and arranged on a single screen so that information can be digested at a single glance
and easily drilled in and further explored. A typical dashboard is shown in Figure 4.8.
This particular executive dashboard displays a variety of KPis for a hypothetical software
company called Sonatica (selling audio tools). This executive dashboard shows a highlevel view of the different functional groups surrounding the products, starting from a
general overview to the marketing efforts, sales, finance, and support departments. All of
this is intended to give executive decision makers a quick and accurate idea of what is
going on within the organization. On the left side of the dashbord, we can see (in a timeseries fashion) the quarterly changes in revenues, expenses, and margins, as well as the
comparison of those figures to previous years' monthly numbers. On the upper-right side
we see two dials with color-coded regions showing the amount of monthly expenses for
support services (dial on the left) and the amount of other expenses (dial on the right).
Executive Dash boa rd
[y Hover Over
Specify a date range: !lune, 2009
Monthly Expense H,Vh
Ranges
Sales Distributmn (USO)
0(:§]0
$10.00-L,..........U..,..U.....1.1..,..U..-1..1...,.&J~L.,.,L..............~
Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 Apr 10
$0 to $19,000
$50.0
$O.o.,............~,.......~........~........~.-...~.......Jun 09 Aug 09 Oct 09 Dec 09 Feb 10 fJ¥ 10
FIGURE 4.8
A Sample Executive Dashboard.
•
$19,000 to $38,000
•
$38,000 to $57,000
•
$57,000 to $76,000
•
$76 ,0 00 to $95,000
Source: dundas.com.
•
Nominal
•
Excessive
I
,& Montflly &pen.H Low
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
161
As the color coding indicates, while the monthly support expenses are well within the
normal ranges, the other expenses are in the red (or darker) region, indicating excessive
values. The geographic map on the bottom right shows the distribution of sales at the
country level throughput the world. Behind these graphical icons there are variety of
mathematical functions aggregating numerious data points to their highest level of meaningul figures. By clicking on these graphical icons, the consumer of this information can
drill down to more granular levels of information and data.
Dashboards are used in a w ide variety of businesses for a wide variety of reasons.
For instance, in Application Case 4.5 , you will find the summary of a successful implementation of information dashboards by the Dallas Cowboys football team.
Application Case 4.5
Dallas Cowboys Score Big with Tableau and Teknion
Founded in 1960, the Dallas Cowboys are a professional American football team headquartered
in Irving, Texas. The team has a large national
following, w hich is perhaps best represented by
the NFL record for number of consecutive games at
sold-out stadiums.
Challenge
Bill Priakos, COO of the Dallas Cowboys Merchandising Division, and his team needed more visibility
into their data so they could run it more profitably.
Microsoft was selected as the baseline platform for
this upgrade as well as a number of other sales, logistics, and e-commerce applications. The Cowboys
expected that this new information architecture
would provide the needed analytics and reporting.
Unfortunately, this was not the case, and the search
began for a robust dashboarding, analytics, and
reporting tool to fill this gap.
Solution and Results
Tableau and Teknion together provided real-time
reporting and dashboard capabilities that exceeded
the Cowboys' requirements. Systematically and
methodically the Teknion team worked side by side
with data owners and data users within the Dallas
Cowboys to deliver all required functionality, on
time and under budget. "Early in the process, we
were able to get a clear understanding of what it
would take to run a more profitable operation for
the Cowboys," said Teknion Vice President Bill
Luisi. "This process step is a key step in Teknion's
approach with any client, and it always pays huge
dividends as the implementation plan progresses."
Added Luisi, "Of course, Tableau worked very
closely with us and the Cowboys during the entire
project. Together, we made sure that the Cowboys
could achieve their reporting and analytical goals in
record time."
Now, for the first time, the Dallas Cowboys
are able to monitor their complete merchandising
activities from manufacture to end customer and see
not only what is happening across the life cycle, but
drill down even further into why it is h appening.
Today, this BI solution is used to report and
analyze the business activities of the Merchandising
Division, which is responsible for all of the Dallas
Cowboys' brand sales. Industry estimates say that
the Cowboys generate 20 percent of all NFL merchandise sales, which reflects the fact they are the
most recognized sports franchise in the world.
According to Eric Lai, a ComputerWorld
repo1ter, Tony Romo and the rest of the Dallas
Cowboys may have been only average on the football field in the last few years, but off the field,
especially in the merchandising arena, they remain
America's team.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did the Dallas Cowboys use information
visualization?
2. What were the challenge, the proposed solution,
and the obtained results?
Sources: Tableau, Case Study, tableausoftware.com/learn/
stories/tableau-and-teknion-exceed-cowboys-requirements
(accessed Fe brnary 2013); and E. Lai, "BI Visualization Tool Helps
Dallas Cowboys Sell Mo re Tony Romo Jerseys," ComputerWorld,
October 8, 2009.
162
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Dashboard Design
Dashboards are not a new concept. Their roots can be traced at least to the EIS of the
1980s. Today, dashboards are ubiquitous. For example, a few years back, Forrester
Research estimated that over 40 percent of the largest 2,000 companies in the world
use the technology (Ante and McGregor, 2006). Since then, o ne can safely assume
that this number h as gone up quite significantly. In fact, nowadays it would be rather
unusual to see a large company using a BI system that does not employ some sort of
performance dashboards. The Dashboard Spy Web site (dashboardspy.com/about)
provides further evide nce of their ubiquity. The site contains descriptions and screenshots of thousands of BI dashboards, scorecards, and BI interfaces used by businesses
of all sizes and industries, nonprofits, and government agencies.
According to Eckerson (2006), a well-known expert on BI in general and dashboards in particular, the most distinctive feature of a dashboard is its three layers of
information:
1. Monitoring.
Graphical, abstracted data to monitor key performance metrics.
2. Analysis. Summarized dimensional data to analyze the root cause of problems.
3. Management. Detailed operational data that identify what actions to take to
resolve a problem.
Because of these layers, dashboards pack a lot of information into a single
screen . According to Few (2005), "The fundamental challenge of dashboard design
is to display all the required information on a single screen, clearly and without
distraction, in a manner that can be assimilated quickly ." To speed assimilation of
the numbers, the numbers n eed to be placed in context. This can be done by comparing the numbers of interest to other baseline or target numbers, by indicating
w hether the numbers are good or bad, by den oting wh eth er a trend is better or worse,
and by using specialized display w idgets or com ponents to set the comparative and
evaluative context.
Some of the common comparisons that are typically made in business
intelligence systems include comparisons against past values, forecasted values,
targeted values, benchmark or average values, multiple instances of the same measure,
and the values of other measures (e.g. , revenues versus costs). In Figure 4 .8, the
vario us KPis are set in context by comparing them w ith targeted values, the revenue
figure is set in context by comparing it with marketing costs, and the figures for
the various stages of the sales pipeline are set in context by comparing one stage
w ith another.
Even w ith comparative measures, it is important to specifically point out
w hether a particular number is good or bad and w hethe r it is trending in the right
direction. Without these sorts of evaluative designations, it can be time-consuming
to determine the status of a particular number or result. Typically, e ither specialized
visual objects (e.g., traffic lights) or visual attributes (e.g., color coding) are used
to set the evaluative context. Again, for the dashboard in Figure 4.8, color coding
(or varying gray tones) is used with the gauges to designate whether the KPI is good
or bad, and g reen up arrows are used with the vario us stages of the sales pipeline to
indicate whether the results for those stages are trending up or down and whether
up or down is good or bad. Alth ough not used in this particular exam ple, additional
colors- red and oran ge, for instance-could be used to represent other states on
the various gauges. An inte resting and informative dash board-driven reporting
solution built specifically for a very large telecommunicatio n company is featured in
Application Case 4.6.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
163
Application Case 4.6
Saudi Telecom Company Excels with Information Visualization
Supplying Internet and mobile services to over
160 million customers across the Middle East,
Saudi Telecom Company (STC) is one of the largest providers in the region, extending as far as
Africa and South Asia. With millions of customers
contacting STC daily for billing, payment, network
usage, and support, all of this information has to be
monitored somewhere. Located in the headquarters
of STC is a data center that features a soccer fieldsized wall of monitors all displaying information
regarding network statistics, service analytics, and
customer calls.
The Problem
When you have acres of information in front of
you, prioritizing and contextualizing the data are
paramount in understanding it. STC needed to identify the relevant metrics, properly visualize them,
and provide them to the right people, often with
time-sensitive information. 'The executives didn't
have the ability to see key performance indicators"
said Waleed Al Eshaiwy, manager of the data center
at STC. "They would have to contact the technical
teams to get status reports. By that time, it would
often be too late and we would be reacting to problems rather than preventing them."
The Solution
After carefully evaluating several vendors, STC made
the decision to go with Dundas because of its rich
data visualization alternatives. Dundas business
inte lligence consultants worked on-site in STC's
headqua1ters in Riyadh to refine the telecommunication dashboards so they functioned properly.
"Even if someone were to show you what was in
the database, line by line, w ithout visualizing it, it
would be difficult to know w hat was going on,"
said Waleed, who worked closely with Dundas consultants. The success that STC experienced led to
engagement on an enterprise-wide, mission-critical
project to transform their data center and create a
more proactive monitoring environment. This project
culminated w ith the monitoring systems in STC's
data center finally transforming from reactive to proactive. Figure 4.9 shows a sample dashboard for call
center management.
The Benefits
"Dundas' information visualization tools allowed
us to see tre nds and correct issues before they
became problems," said Mr. Eshaiwy. He added,
"We decreased the amount of service tickets
by 55 percent the year that we started using the
information visualization tools and dashboards.
The availability of the system increased, which
meant customer satisfaction levels increased, which
led to an increased customer base, w hich of course
lead to increased revenues." With new, custom
KPis becoming visually available to the STC team ,
Dundas' dashboards currently occupy nearly a
quarter of the soccer fie ld-sized monitor wall.
"Eve1y thing is on my screen, and I can drill down
and find whatever I need to know," explained
Waleed. He added, "Because of the design and
structure of the dashboards, we can very quickly
recognize th e root cause of the problems and take
appropriate action. " According to Mr. Eshaiwy,
Dundas is a success: "The adoption rates are
excellent, it's easy to use, and it's one of the most
successful projects that we have impleme nted.
Even visitors who stop by my office are grabbed
right away by the look of the dashboard!"
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why do you think telecommunications compa-
nies are among the prime users of information
visualization tools?
2. How did Saudi Telecom use information
visualization?
3. What were their challenges, the proposed solution, and the obtained results?
Dundas, Customer Success Story, "Saudi Telecom
Company Used Dundas' Information Visualization Solution,"
dundas.com/wp-content/uploads/Saudi-Telecom-CompanyCase-Studyl.pdf (accessed February 2013).
Source:
(Continued)
164 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 4.6
(Continued}
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What to Look for in a Dashboard
Although performance dashboards and other information visualizatio n frameworks differ in the ir purpose, they all share some common design characteristics. First, they all
fit within the larger business intelligence and/or performance measurement system . This
means that their underlying architecture is the BI or performance management architecture of the larger system. Second, all well-designed dashboard and other information
visualizations possess the following characteristics (Novell, 2009):
• They use visual components (e.g., charts, performance bars, sparklines, gauges,
meters, stoplights) to highlight, at a glance, the data and exceptions that require action.
• They are transparent to the use r, meaning that they require minimal training and are
extremely easy to use .
• They combine data from a variety of systems into a single, summarized, unified
view of the business.
• They enable drill-down or d rill-through to underlying data sources or reports,
providing mo re detail about the underlying comparative and evalu ative context.
• They present a dynamic, real-world view w ith timely data refreshes, enabling the
end user to stay up to date with any recent changes in the business.
• They require little, if any, customized coding to implement, deploy, and maintain.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
Best Practices in Dashboard Design
The real estate saying "location, location, location" makes it obvious that the most important attribute for a piece of real estate property is where it is located. For dashboards, it
is "data, data , data. " An often overlooked aspect, data is one of the most important things
to consider in designing dashboards (Carotenuto, 2007). Even if a dashboard's appearance looks professional, is aesthetically pleasing, and includes graphs and tables created
according to accepted visual design standards, it is also important to ask about the data: Is
it reliable? Is it timely? Is any data missing? Is it consistent across all dashboards? Here are
some of the experiences-driven best practices in dashboard design (Radha , 2008).
Benchmark Key Performance Indicators with Industry Standards
Many customers, at some point in time, want to know if the metrics they are measuring
are the right metrics to monitor. At times, many customers have found that the metrics
they are tracking are not the right ones to track. Doing a gap assessment with industry
benchmarks aligns you with industry best practices.
Wrap the Dashboard Metrics with Contextual Metadata
Often when a report or a visual dashboard/ scorecard is presented to business u sers,
many questions remain unanswered. The following are some examples:
• Where did you source this data?
• While loading the data warehouse, what percentage of the data got rejected/
e ncountered data quality problems?
• Is the dashboard presenting "fresh" information or "stale" information?
• When was the data warehouse last refreshed?
• When is it going to be refreshed next?
• Were any high-value transactions that would skew the overall trends rejected as a
part of the loading process?
Validate the Dashboard Design by a Usability Specialist
In most dashboard environments, the dashboard is designed by a tool specialist without
giving consideration to usability principles. Even though it's a well-engineered data
warehouse that can perform well, many business users do not use the dashboard because
it is perceived as not being user friendly, leading to poor adoption of the infrastructure
and change management issues. Upfront validation of the dashboard design by a usability
specialist can mitigate this risk.
Prioritize and Rank Alerts/Exceptions Streamed to the Dashboard
Because there are tons of raw data, it is important to have a mechanism by w hich
important exceptions/ behaviors are proactively pushed to the information consumers.
A business rule can be codified, which detects the alert pattern of interest. It can be
coded into a program, using database-stored procedures, which can crawl through the
fact tables and detect patterns that need the immediate attention of the business u ser.
This way, information finds the business user as opposed to the business user polling the
fact tables for occurrence of critical patterns.
Enrich Dashboard with Business Users' Comments
When the same dashboard information is presented to multiple business users, a small
text box can be provided to capture the comments from an end-user perspective. This can
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166 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
often be tagged to the dashboard and put the information in context, adding a lot of perspective to the structured KPis being rendered.
Present Information in Three Different Levels
Information can be presented in three layers depending upon the granularity of the
information: the visual dashboard level, the static report level, and the self-service cube
level. When a user navigates the dashboard, a simple set of 8 to 12 KPis can be presented,
which would give a sense of w hat is going well and what is not.
Pick the Right Visual Construct Using Dashboard Design Principles
In presenting information in a dashboard, some information is presented best w ith bar
charts, some with time-series line graphs, and, when presenting correlations, a scatter plot
is useful. Sometimes merely rendering it as simple tables is effective. O nce the dashboard
design principles are explicitly documented, all the developers working on the front end
can adhere to the same principles w hile rendering the reports and dashboard.
Provide for Guided Analytics
In a typical organizatio n, business users can come at various levels of analytical maturity.
The capability of the dashboard can be used to guide the "average" business user in order
to access the same navigational path as that of an analytically savvy business user.
SECTION 4.6 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is a performance dashboard? Why are they so popular for BI software tools?
2. What are the graphical widgets commo nly used in dashboards? Why?
3. List and describe the three layers of information portrayed on dashboards.
4. What are the common characteristics for dashboards and other information visuals?
5. What are the best practices in dashboard design?
4.7
BUSINESS PERFORMANCE MANAGEMENT
In the business and trade literature, business performance management (BPM) has a
number of names, including corporate performance management (CPM), enterprise
performance management (EPM), and strategic enterprise management (SEM). CPM was
coined by the market analyst firm Gartner (gartner.com). EPM is a term associated w ith
Oracle's (oracle.com) offering by the same name. SEM is the term that SAP (sap.com)
uses. In this chapter, BPM is prefe rred over the other terms because it is the earliest,
the most generally used, and the one that does not closely tie to a single-solution
provider. The term business performance management (BPM) refers to the business
processes, methodologies, metrics, and technologies used by e nte rprises to measure,
monitor, and manage business performance. It encompasses three key components
(Colbert, 2009):
1. A set of integrated, closed-loop management and analytic processes (supported by
technology) that addresses financial as well as operatio nal activities
2. Tools for businesses to define strategic goals and then measure and manage
performance against those goals
3. A core set of processes, including financial and operational planning, consolidation
and reporting, modeling, analysis, and monitoring of key performance indicators
(KPis), linked to organizatio nal strategy
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
Strategy
Integrated
Data and
Metrics
Execution
FIGURE 4.10
Closed-Loop BPM Cycle
Source: Business Intelligence, 2e.
Closed-Loop BPM Cycle
Maybe the most significant differentiator of BPM from any other BI tools and practices
is its strategy focus. BPM encompasses a closed-loop set of processes that link strategy
to execution in order to optimize business performance (see Figure 4.10). The loop
implies that optimum performance is achieved by setting goals and objectives (i.e. , strategize), establishing initiatives and plans to achieve those goals (i.e., plan), mo nitoring
actual performance against the goals and objectives (i.e., monitor), and taking corrective
action (i.e., act and adjust). The continuous and repetitive nature of the cycle implies
that the completion of an iteratio n leads to a new and improved o ne (supporting continues process improvement efforts). In the following section these four processes are
described.
1. Strategize: Where do we want to go? Strategy, in general terms, is a highlevel plan of action , encompassing a lo ng period of time (often several years) to achieve a
define d goal. It is especially necessary in a situation wh ere there are numerous constraints
(driven by market conditions, resource availabilities, and legal/political alterations) to deal
with on the way to achieving the goal. In a business setting, strategy is the art and the
scie nce of crafting decisions that help businesses achieve their goals. More specifically, it
is the process of identifying and stating the organization's mission, vision, and objectives,
and developing plans (at different levels of granularity- strategic, tactical, and operational) to achieve these objectives.
Business strategies are normally planned and created by a team of corporate
executives (often led by the CEO), approved and authorized by the board of directors,
and then implemented by the company's management team under the supervisio n of the
167
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
senior executives. Business strategy provides an overall direction to the enterprise and is
the first and foremost important process in the BPM methodology.
2. Plan: How do we get there? When operational managers know and understand the what (i.e., the organizational objectives and goals), they will be able to come
up with the how (i.e., detailed operational and financial plans). Operational and financial
plans answer two questions: What tactics and initiatives will be pursued to meet the pe rformance targets established by the strategic plan? What are the expected financial results
of executing the tactics?
An operational plan translates an organization's strategic objectives and goals into
a set of well-defined tactics and initiatives, resource requirements, and expected results
for some future time period, u sually, but not always, a year. In essence, an operational
plan is like a project plan that is designed to ensure that an organization's strategy is
realized. Most operational plans encompass a portfolio of tactics and initiatives. The key
to successful operational planning is integration. Strategy drives tactics, and tactics drive
results. Basically, the tactics and initiatives defined in an operational plan need to be
directly linked to key objectives and targets in the strategic plan. If there is no linkage
between an individual tactic and one or more strategic objectives or targets, management
should question whether the tactic and its associated initiatives are really needed at all.
The BPM methodologies discussed late r in this chapter are designed to e nsure that these
linkages exist.
The financial planning and budgeting process has a logical structure that typically
starts with those tactics that generate some form of revenue or income. In organizations
that sell goods or services, the ability to generate revenue is based on either the ability
to directly produce goods and services or acquire the right amount of goods and
services to sell. After a revenue figure has been establishe d, the associated costs of
delivering that level of revenue can be generated. Quite often, this entails input from
several departments or tactics. This means the process has to be collaborative and that
dependencies between functions need to be clearly communicated and understood. In
addition to the collaborative input, the organization also needs to add various overhead
costs, as well as the costs of the capital require d. This information, once consolidated,
shows the cost by tactic as well as the cash and funding requirements to put the plan
into operation.
3. Monitor/Analyze: How are we doing? When the operational and financial plans are underway, it is imperative that the p erformance of the organization be
monitored. A comprehensive framework for monitoring performance should address two
key issues: what to monitor and how to monitor. Because it is impossible to look at everything, an organization needs to focus on monitoring specific issues. After the organizatio n
has identified the indicators or measures to look at, it needs to develop a strategy for monitoring those factors and responding effectively. These measures are most often called key
performance indicators (or KPI, in short). An overview of the process of determining KPI
is given later in this chapter. A related topic to the selection of the optimal set of KPis is
the balanced scorecard method, which will also be covered in detail later in this ch apter.
4. Act and Adjust: What do we need to do differently? Whether a company is
interested in growing its business or simply improving its operations, virtually all strategies
depend on new projects-creating new products, entering new markets, acquiring new
customers or businesses, o r streamlining some processes. Most companies approach these
new projects with a spirit of optimism rather than objectivity, ignoring the fact that most
new projects and ventures fail. What is the chance of failure? Obviously, it depends on the
type of project (Slywotzky and Weber, 2007). Hollywood movies have around a 60 percent chance of failure. The same is true for mergers and acquisitions. Large IT projects fail
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
169
at the rate of 70 percent. For new food products, the failure rate is 80 percent. For new
pharmaceutical products, it is even higher, around 90 percent. Overall, the rate of failure
for most new projects or ventures runs between 60 and 80 percent. Given these numbers,
the answer to the question of "what do we need to do differently?" becomes a vital issue.
Application Case 4.7 shows how a large construction and consultancy company
implemented an integrated reporting system to better track their financials and other
important KPis across its international branches.
Application Case 4.7
IBM Cognos Express Helps Mace for Faster and Better Business Reporting
Headquartered in the UK, Mace is an international
consultancy and construction company that offers
highly integrated services across the full property
and infrastructure lifecycle. It employs 3,700 people in more than 60 countries worldwide, and is
involved in some of the world's highest-profile projects, such as the construction of London's "Shard",
the tallest building in Western Europe.
Many of Mace's international projects are
contracted on a fixed-price basis, and their success depends on the company's ability to control
costs and maintain profitability. Until recently, the
only way for senior managers to gain a full understanding of international operations was a monthly
report, based on a complex spreadsheet which drew
data from numerous different accounting systems in
subsidiaries around the world.
Brendan Kitley, Finance Systems Manager at
Mace, comments: "The spreadsheet on which we
based our international reports had about 40 tabs
and hundreds of cross-links, which meant it was
very easy to introduce errors, and the lack of a standardized approach was affecting accuracy and consistency. We wanted to find a more robust process
for financial reporting."
Finding the Right Partner
Mace was already using IBM Cognos TMl® software
for its domestic business in the UK, and was keen to
find a similar solution for the international business.
"We decided to use IBM Cognos Express as
the foundation of our international reporting platform," says Brendan Kitley. "We were impressed by
its ability to give us many of the same capabilities
as our TMl solution, but at a price-point that was
more affordable for an organization the size of our
international division. We also liked the web interface, which we knew our international users would
be able to access easily."
"We engaged with Barrachd, an IBM Business
Partner, to support us during the project, and they
did a very professional job. They helped us negotiate a reasonable price for the software licenses,
delivered excellent technical support, and provided
us w ith access to the right IBM experts whenever we
needed them."
Rapid Implementation
The implementation was completed within six
months, despite all the complexities of importing
data from multiple accounting systems and handling
exchange rate calculations for operations in over 40
countries. Mace is using all four modules of IBM
Cognos Express: Xcelerator and Planner for modeling and planning; Reporter for business intelligence;
and Advisor for several important dashboards.
"We have been really impressed by the ease
of development with Cognos Express," comments
Brendan Kitley. "Setting up new applications and cubes
is relatively quick and simple, and we feel that we've
only scratched the surface of what we can achieve. We
have a lot of Cognos skills and experience in-house,
so we are keen to build a wider range of functionalities into Cognos Express as we move forward."
Faster, More Sophisticated Reporting
The first major project with Cognos Express was
to replicate the default reports that used to be produced by the old spreadsheet-based process. This
was achieved relatively quickly, so the team was
able to move on to a second phase of developing
more sophisticated and detailed reports.
(Continued)
170 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Aoolication Case 4.7
(Continued)
"The reports we have now are much more
useful because they a llow us to drill down from the
group level through all our international subsidiaries to the individual cost-centers, and even to the
projects themselves," explains Brendan Kitley. "The
ability to get an accurate picture of financial performance in each project empowers our managers to
make better decisions."
"Moreover, since the reporting process is now
largely automated, we can create reports more quickly
and with less effort - which means we can generate
them more frequently. Instead of a one-month lead
time for reporting, we can do a full profitability analysis in half the time, and give our managers more
timely access to the information they need."
Moving Towards a Single Platform
With the success of the international reporting project, Mace is working to unite all its UK and international subsidiaries into this single financial reporting
and budgeting system. With a common platform for
all reporting processes, the company's central finance
team will be able to spend less time and effort on
maintaining and customizing the processes, and
more on acn1ally analyzing the figures themselves.
Brendan Kitley concludes: "With better visibility and more timely access to more detailed and
accurate information, we are in a better position to
monitor performance and maintain profitability while
ensuring that our projects are delivered on time and
w ithin budget. By continuing to work with IBM and
Barrachd to develop our Cognos Express solution,
we expect to unlock even greater benefits in terms of
standardization and financial control."
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What was the reporting challenge Mace was fac-
ing? Do you think this is an unusual challenge
specific to Mace?
2. What was the approach for a potential solution?
3. What were the results obtained in the short term,
and what were the future plans?
Source: IBM, Customer Success Story, "Mace gains insight into
the pe rformance of international projects" http://www-01.
ibm.com/software/success/cssdb.nsf/CS/STRD-99ALBX
(accessed Se ptember 2013).
SECTION 4. 7 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is business performance management? How does it relate to BI?
2. What are the three key components of a BPM system?
3. List and briefly describe the four phases of the BPM cycle.
4. Why is strategy the most important part of a BPM implementation?
4.8 PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT
Underlying BPM is a performance measurement system. According to Simons (2002),
performance measurement systems:
Assist managers in tracking the implementations of business strategy by comparing actual results against strategic goals and objectives. A performance measurement system typically comprises systematic methods of setting business goals
together with periodic feedback reports that indicate progress against goals.
All measurement is about comparisons. Raw numbers are of little value. If you were
told that a salesperson completed 50 percent of the deals he or she was working on
within a month, that would have little meaning. Now, suppose you were told that the
same salesperson had a monthly close rate of 30 percent last year. Obviously, the trend
is good. What if you were also told that the average close rate for all salespeople at the
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
company was 80 percent? Obviously, that particular salesperson needs to pick up the
pace. As Simons' definition suggests, in performance measurement, the key comparisons
revolve around strategies, goals, and objectives. Operational metrics that are used to
measure performance are usually called key performance indicators (KPis).
Key Performance Indicator (KPI)
There is a difference between a "run of the mill" metric and a "strategically aligned" metric. The term key performance indicator (KPI) is often used to denote the latter. A KPI
represents a strategic objective and measures performance against a goal. According to
Eckerson (2009), KPis are multidimensional. Loosely translated, this means that KPis have
a variety of distinguishing features, including:
• Strategy. KPis embody a strategic objective.
• Targets. KPis measure performance against specific targets. Targets are defined
in strategy, planning, or budgeting sessions and can take different forms (e.g. ,
achievement targets, reduction targets, absolute targets).
• Ranges. Targets have performance ranges (e.g., above, on, or below target).
• Encodings. Ranges are encoded in software, enabling the visual display of
performance (e.g. , green, yellow, red). Encodings can be based on percentages or
more complex rules.
• Time frames. Targets are assigned time frames by which they must be
accomplished. A time frame is often divided into smaller intervals to provide
performance mileposts.
• Benchmarks. Targets are measured against a baseline or benchmark. The
previous year's results often serve as a benchmark, but arbitrary numbers or external
benchmarks may also be used.
A distinction is sometimes made between KPis that are "outcomes" and those that
are "drivers. " Outcome KPis-sometimes known as lagging indicators-measure the
output of past activity (e.g., revenues). They are often financial in nature, but not always.
Driver KPis-sometimes known as leading indicators o r value drivers-measure activities
that have a significant impact on outcome KPis (e.g., sales leads).
In some circles, driver KPis are sometimes called operational KP!s, which is a bit of
an oxymoron (Hatch, 2008). Most organizations collect a wide range of operational metrics.
As the name implies, these metrics deal w ith the operational activities and performance
of a company. The following list of examples illustrates the variety of operational areas
covered by these metrics:
• Customer performance. Metrics for customer satisfaction, speed and accuracy
of issue resolution, and customer retention.
• Service performance. Metrics for service-call resolution rates, service renewal
rates, service-level agreements, delivery performance, and return rates.
• Sales operations. New pipeline accounts, sales meetings secured, conversion of
inquiries to leads, and average call closure time.
• Sales plan/forecast. Metrics for price-to-purchase accuracy, purchase order-tofulfillment ratio, quantity earned, forecast-to-plan ratio, and total closed contracts.
Whether an operational metric is strategic or not depends on the company and its
use of the measure. In many instances, these metrics represent critical drivers of strategic outcomes. For instance, Hatch (2008) recalls the case of a mid-tier wine distributor
that was being squeezed upstream by the consolidation of suppliers and downstream by
the consolidation of retailers. In response, it decided to focus on four operational measures: o n-hand/ o n-time inventory availability, outstanding "open" order value , net-new
171
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Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
accounts, and promotion costs and return on marketing investment. The net result of
its efforts was a 12 percent increase in revenues in 1 year. Obviously, these o perational
metrics were key drivers. However, as described in the following section , in many cases,
companies simply measure what is convenient w ith minimal consideration as to why the
data are being collected. The result is a significant waste of time, effort, and money.
Performance Measurement System
There is a difference between a p erformance measurement system and a p erformance
management system. The latter e ncompasses the former. That is, any performance
management system has a performance measurement system, but not the other way
around. If you were to ask, most companies today would claim that they have a p erformance measurement system but not necessarily a performance management system,
even though a performance measurement system has very little, if any, use without the
overarching structure of the p erformance manageme nt system.
The most popular performance measurement systems in use are some variant of
Kaplan and Norton's balanced scorecard (BSC). Various surveys and benchmarking
studies indicate that anywhere from 50 to over 90 p ercent of all companies have implemented some form of BSC at one time or another. Although there seems to be some
confusion about what constitutes "balance," there is no doubt about the originators of
the BSC (Kaplan & Norton, 1996): "Central to the BSC methodology is a holistic vision of
a measurement system tied to the strategic direction of the organization. It is based on a
four-perspective view of the world, with financial measures supported by customer, internal, and learning and growth metrics. "
SECTION 4.8 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is a performance manage me nt system? Why do we need one?
2. What are the most distinguishing features of K.Pls?
3. List and briefly define four of the most commonly cited operational areas for K.Pls.
4. What is a performance measurement system? How does it work?
4.9
BALANCED SCORECARDS
Probably the best-known and most widely used performance management system is
the balanced scorecard (BSC). Kaplan and Norton first articulated this methodology in
their Harvard Business Review article, "The Balanced Scorecard: Measures That Drive
Performance," which appeared in 1992. A few years later, in 1996, these same authors
produced a groundbreaking book-Tbe Balanced Scorecard: Translating Strategy into
Action-that documented how companies were using the BSC not only to supplement
the ir financial measures with nonfinancial measures, but also to communicate and implement their strategies. Over the past few years, BSC has become a generic term that is used
to represent virtually every type of scorecard application and implementation, regardless of whether it is balanced or strategic. In response to this bastardization of the term,
Kaplan and Norton released a new book in 2000, Tbe Strategy-Focused Organization:
How Balanced Scorecard Companies Tbrive in the New Business Environment. This book
was designed to reemphasize the strategic nature of the BSC methodology. This was
followed a few years later, in 2004, by Strategy Maps: Converting Intangible Assets into
Tangible Outcomes, w hich describes a detailed process for linking strategic objectives to
operational tactics and initiatives. Finally, their latest book, Tbe Execution Premium, published in 2008, focuses on the strategy gap-linking strategy formulation and planning
w ith operational execution.
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
The Four Perspectives
The balanced scorecard suggests that we view the organization from four perspectivescustomer, financial, internal business processes, learning and growth- and develop objectives, measures, targets, and initiatives relative to each of these perspectives. Figure 4.11
shows these four objectives and their interrelationship with the organization's vision and
strategy.
Recent management philosophies have shown an increasing realization of the importance of customer focus and customer satisfaction in any
business. These are leading indicators: If customers are not satisfied, they will eventually
find other suppliers that will meet their needs. Poor performance from this perspective is
thus a leading indicator of future decline, even though the current financial picture may
look good. In developing metrics for satisfaction, customers should be analyzed in terms
of kinds of customers and the kinds of processes for which we are providing a product
or service to those customer groups.
THE CUSTOMER PERSPECTIVE
THE FINANCIAL PERSPECTIVE Kaplan and Norton do not disregard the traditional need
for financial data. Timely and accurate funding data will always be a priority, and managers will do whatever is necessary to provide it. In fact, often there is more than enough
handling and processing of financial data. With the implementation of a corporate
database, it is hoped that more of the processing can be centralized and automated. But
the point is that the current emphasis on financials leads to the "unbalanced" situation
with regard to other perspectives. There is perhaps a need to include additional financialrelated data, such as risk assessment and cost-benefit data, in this category.
This perspective aims to answer the
question, "To achieve our vision, how will we sustain our ability to change and improve?"
It includes employee training, knowledge management, and corporate cultural characteristics related to both individual and corporate-level improvement. In the current climate
of rapid technological change, it is becoming necessa1y for knowledge workers to be in a
continuous learning and growing mode. Metrics can be put into place to guide managers
THE LEARNING AND GROWTH PERSPECTIVE
Financial
Perspective
Internal
Business
Process
Perspective
Customer
Perspective
Learning and
Growth
Perspective
FIGURE 4.11
Four Perspectives in Balanced Scorecard Methodology.
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174 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
in focusing training funds w here they can help the most. In any case, learning and growth
constitute the essential foundation for the success of any knowledge-worker o rganization.
Kaplan and Norton emphasize that "learning" is more than "training"; it also includes
things like mentors and tutors w ithin the organization, as well as that ease of communication among workers that allows them to readily get help on a problem when it is needed.
This perspective focuses on the importance of business processes. Metrics based on this perspective allow the managers to
know how well their internal business processes and functions are running, and whether
the o utcomes of these processes (i.e., products and services) meet and exceed the
customer requirements (the mission).
THE INTERNAL BUSINESS PROCESS PERSPECTIVE
The Meaning of Balance in BSC
From a high-level viewpoint, the balanced scorecard (BSC) is both a performance
measurement and a management methodology that helps translate an organization's financial, customer, internal process, and learning and growth objectives and targets into a set
of actionable initiatives. As a measurement methodology, BSC is designed to overcome the
limitations of systems that are financially focused. It does this by translating an organization's
vision and strategy into a set of interrelated financial and nonfinancial objectives, measures,
targets, and initiatives. The nonfinancial objectives fall into one of three perspectives:
• Customer. This objective defines how the organization should appear to its
customers if it is to accomplish its vision.
• Internal business process. This objective specifies the processes the organizatio n must excel at in order to satisfy its shareholders and customers.
• Learning and growth. This objective indicates how an organization can improve
its ability to change and improve in order to achieve its vision.
Basically, no nfinancial objectives form a simple causal chain with "learning and
growth" driving "internal business process" change, which produces "customer" outcomes that are responsible for reaching a comp any's "financial" objectives. A simple
chain of this sort is exemplified in Figure 4. 12, where a strategy map and balanced
scorecard for a fictitious company are displayed. From the strategy map, we can see that
the o rganization has four objectives across the four BSC perspectives. Like other strategy
maps, this one begins at the top w ith a financial objective (i.e., increase net income). This
objective is driven by a customer objective (i.e., increase customer retentio n). In turn, the
customer objective is the result of an internal process objective (i.e., improve call center
performance). The map continues down to the bottom of the hierarchy, where the learning objective is found (e.g. , reduce employee turnover).
In BSC, the term balance arises because the combined set of measures is supposed
to encompass indicators that are:
• Financial and nonfinancial
• Leading and lagging
• Internal and external
• Quantitative and qualitative
• Short term and long term
Dashboards Versus Scorecards
In the trade journals, the terms dashboard and scorecard are used almost interchangeably,
even though BPM/ BI vendors usually offer separate dashboard and scorecard applications.
Although dashboards and scorecards have much in common, there are differences between
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
Strategy Map:
Linked Objectives
Financial
Customer
Increase
Customer
Retention
Balanced Scorecard:
Measures and Targets
Net income
growth
Increase
25%
Maintenance
retention rate
Increase
15%
Strategic Initiatives:
Action Plans
Change licensing
and maintenance contracts
--- ----- ---- ----- ----- ---- -
Process
Issue
turnaround
time
Learning
and
Growth
Voluntary
turnover
rate
Improve
30%
Standardized
call center processes
------------ -------------- -
FIGURE 4.12
Strategy Map and Balanced Scorecard.
Reduce
25%
Salary and
bonus upgrade
Source: Business Intelligence, 2e.
the two. On the one hand, executives, managers, and staff use scorecards to monitor
strategic alignment and success w ith strategic objectives and targets. As noted, the bestknown example is the BSC. O n the other hand, dashboards are used at the operational and
tactical levels. Managers, supervisors, and operators use operational dashboards to monitor
detailed operational performance on a weekly, daily, or even hourly basis. For example ,
operational dashboards might be used to monitor production quality. In the same vein,
managers and staff use tactical dashboards to monitor tactical initiatives. For example ,
tactical dashboards might be used to monitor a marketing campaign or sales performance .
SECTION 4.9 REVIEW Q U ESTIONS
1. What is a balanced scorecard (BSC)? Where did it come from?
2. What are the four perspectives that BSC suggests us to use to view organizational
performance?
3 . Why do we need to define separate objectives, measures, targets, and initiatives for
each of these four BSC perspectives?
4. What is the meaning of and motivation for balance in BSC?
5. What are the differences and commonalities between dashboards and scorecards?
4.10
SIX SIGMA AS A PERFORMANCE MEASUREMENT SYSTEM
Since its inception in the mid-1980s, Six Sigma has enjoyed widespread adoption by
companies throughout the world. For the most part, it has not been used as a performance
measurement and management methodology. Instead, most companies use it as a process
improvement methodology that enables them to scrutinize their processes, pinpoint
problems, and apply remedies. In recent years, some companies, such as Motorola, have
recognized the value of using Six Sigma for strategic purposes. In these instances, Six
Sigma provides the means to measure and monito r key processes re lated to a company's
profitability and to accelerate improvement in overall business performance. Because of
its focus on business processes, Six Sigma also provides a straightforward way to address
performance problems after they are identified or detected.
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176 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Sigma, <T , is a letter in the Greek alphabet that statisticians use to measure the
variability in a process. In the quality arena, variability is synonymous with the number
of defects. Generally, companies have accepted a great deal of variability in their
business processes. In numeric terms, the norm h as been 6,200 to 67,000 defects per
million opportunities (DPMO). For instance, if an insurance company h andles 1 million
claims, then under normal operating procedures 6,200 to 67,000 of those claims would
be defective (e.g., mishandle d, have errors in the forms). This level of variability
represents a three- to four-sigma level of performance. To achieve a Six Sigma level of
performance, the company would have to reduce the number of defects to no more
than 3.4 DPMO. Therefore, Six Sigma is a performance management methodology
aimed at redu cing the numbe r of defects in a business process to as close to zero
DPMO as possible.
The DMAIC Performance Model
Six Sigma rests o n a simple performance improvement model known as DMAIC. Like
BPM, DMAIC is a closed-loop business improvement model, and it encompasses the
step s of defining, measuring, analyzing, improving, and controlling a process. The steps
can be described as follows:
1. Define.
Define the goals, objectives, and boundaries of the improvement activity. At the top level, the goals are the strategic objectives of the company . At lower
levels- department or project levels- the goals are focused on specific operational
processes.
2 . Measure. Measure the existing system. Establish quantitative measures that will
yield statistically valid data. The data can be used to monitor progress toward the
goals defined in the previous step.
3. Analyze. Analyze the syste m to identify ways to eliminate the gap between the
current performance of the system or process and the desired goal.
4. Improve. Initiate actions to eliminate the gap by finding ways to do things better,
cheaper, or faster. Use project management and other planning tools to implement
the new approach.
5. Control. Institutionalize the improved system by modifying compensation and
incentive systems, policies, procedures, manufacturing resource planning, budgets,
operation instructions, or other management systems.
For new processes, the model that is used is called DMADV (define, measure,
analyze, design, and verify) . Traditionally, DMAIC and DMADV have been used primarily
with operational issues. However, nothing precludes the application of these methodologies to strategic issues such as company profitability. In recent years, there has been a
focus on combining the Six Sigma methodology with other successful methodologies. For
instance, the methodology known as Lean Manufacturing, Lean Production, or simply as
Lean has been combined with Six Sigma in order to improve its impact in performance
management.
Balanced Scorecard Versus Six Sigma
While many have combined Six Sigma and Balanced Scorecard for a more holistic
solution , some focused on favoring one versus the other. Gupta (2006) in his book titled
Six Sigma Business Scorecard provides a good summary of the differences between the
balanced scorecard and Six Sigma methodologies (see Table 4.1). In a nutshell, the main
difference is that BSC is focused on improving overall strategy, w hereas Six Sigma is
focused o n improving processes.
Chapter 4 • Business Repo rting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
TABLE 4.1
Comparison of Balanced Scorecard and Six Sigma
Balanced Scorecard
Six Sigma
Strategic management system
Performance measurement system
Relates to the longer-term view of the
business
Provides snapshot of business's performance and
identifies measures t hat drive performance
toward profitability
Designed to develop balanced set of
measures
Designed to identify a set of measurements that
impact profitability
Identifies measurements around vision
and values
Establishes accountability for leadership for wellness
and profitability
Critical management processes are to
clarify vision/strategy, communicate,
plan, set targets, align strategic
initiatives, and enhance feedback
Includes all business processes-management
and operational
Balances customer and internal
operations without a clearly defined
leadership role
Balances management and employees' roles;
balances costs and revenue of heavy processes
Emphasizes targets for each
measurement
Emphasizes aggressive rate of improvement for
each measurement, irrespective of target
Emphasizes learning of executives
based on the feedback
Emphasizes learning and innovation at all levels
based on the process feedback; enlists all employees' participation
Focuses on growth
Focuses on maximizing prof itability
Heavy on strategic content
Heavy on execution for profitability
Management system consisting of
measures
Measurement system based on process
management
Source: P. Gupta, Six Sigma Business Scorecard, 2nd ed ., McGraw-Hill Professional, New York, 2006.
Effective Performance Measurement
A number of books provide recipes for determining whether a collection of performance
measures is good or bad. Among the basic ingredients of a good collection are the following:
• Measures should focus on key factors.
• Measures should be a mix of past, present, and future.
• Measures should balance the needs of shareholders, employees, partners, suppliers,
and other stakeholders.
• Measures should start at the top and flow down to the bottom.
• Measures need to have targets that are based on research and reality rather than
arbitrary.
As the section on KPls notes, although all of these characteristics are important,
the real key to an effective performance measurement system is to have a good strategy.
Measures need to be de rived fro m the corporate and business unit strategies and from
an analysis of the key business processes required to achieve those strategies. Of course,
this is easier said than done. If it were simple, most organizations would already have
effective performance measureme nt systems in place, but they do not.
Application Case 4.8, which describes the Web-based KPI scorecard system at
Expedia.com, offers insights into the difficulties of defining both outcome and driver
KPis and the importance of aligning departmental KPis to overall company objectives.
177
178 Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
Application Case 4.8
Expedia.corn's Customer Satisfaction Scorecard
Expedia, Inc., is the parent company to some of the
world's leading travel companies, providing travel
products and services to leisure and corporate travelers in the United States and around the world.
It owns and operates a diversified portfolio of
well-recognized brands, including Expedia.com,
Hotels.com, Hotwire.com, TripAdvisor, Egencia,
Classic Vacations, and a range of other domestic
and international businesses. The company's travel
offerings consist of airline flights , hotel stays, car
rentals, destination services, cruises, a nd package
travel provided by various airlines, lodging properties, car rental companies, destination service
providers, cruise lines, and other travel product
and service companies on a stand-alone and package basis. It also facilitates the booking of hotel
rooms, airline seats, car rentals, and destination
services from its travel suppliers. It acts as an agent
in the transaction, passing reservations booked by
its travelers to the relevant airline, hotel, car rental
company, or cruise line. Together, these popular
brands and innovative businesses make Expedia
the largest online travel agency in the world , the
third largest travel company in the United States,
and the fourth largest travel company in the world.
Its mission is to become the largest and most
profitable seller of travel in the world, by helping
everyone everywhere plan and purchase everything
in travel.
Problem
Customer satisfaction is key to Expedia's overall mission, strategy, and success. Because Expedia.com is
an online business, the customer's shopping experience is critical to Expedia's revenues. The online
shopping experience can make or break an online
business. It is also important that the customer's
shopping experience is mirrored by a good trip
experience. Because the customer experience
is critical, all customer issues need to be tracked,
monitored, and resolved as quickly as possible.
Unfortunately , a few years back, Expedia lacked
visibility into the "voice of the customer." It had no
uniform way of measuring satisfactio n , of analyzing the drivers of satisfaction , or of determining the
impact of satisfaction on the company's profitability
or overall business objectives.
Solution
Expedia's problem was not lack of data. The customer satisfaction group at Expedia knew that it
had lots of data. In all, there were 20 disparate
databases with 20 different owners. Originally,
the group charged one of its business analysts
with the task of pulling together and aggregating
the data from these various sources into a number of key measures for satisfaction. The business
analyst spent 2 to 3 weeks every month pulling
and aggregating the data, leaving virtually no time
for analysis. Eventually, the group realized that
it wasn't enough to aggregate the data. The data
needed to be viewed in the context of strategic
goals, and individuals had to take ownership of
the results.
To tackle the problem, the group decided it
needed a refined vision. It began with a detailed
analysis of the fundamental drivers of the department's performance and the link between this
performance and Expedia's overall goals. Next, the
group converted these drivers and links into a scorecard. This process involved three steps:
1. Deciding bow to measure satisfaction.
This required the group to determine which
measures in the 20 databases would be useful for demonstrating a customer's level of
satisfaction. This became the basis for the
scorecards and KPis.
2. Setting the right performance targets.
This required the group to determine w hether
KPI targets had short-term or long-term payoffs. Just because a customer was satisfied with
his or her online experience did not mean that
the customer was satisfied with the vendor
providing the travel service.
3. Putting data into context. The group had
to tie the data to ongoing customer satisfaction
projects.
The various real-time data sources are fed
into a main database (called the Decision Support
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
Factory). In the case of the customer satisfaction
group, these include customer surveys, CRM
systems, interactive voice response systems, and
other customer-service systems. The data in the DSS
Factory are loaded on a daily basis into several data
marts and multidimensional cubes. Users can access
the data in a variety of ways that are relevant to their
particular business needs.
Benefits
Ultimately, the customer satisfaction group came
up with 10 to 12 objectives that linked directly to
Expedia's corporate initiatives. These objectives
were, in turn, linked to more than 200 KPls within
the customer satisfaction group. KPI owners can
build, manage, and consume their own scorecards,
and managers and executives have a transparent view of how well actions are aligning with the
strategy. The scorecard also provides the customer
satisfaction group with the ability to drill down
into the data underlying any of the trends or patterns observed. In the past, all of this would have
taken weeks or months to do, if it was done at all.
With the scorecard, the Customer Service group can
immediately see how well it is doing with respect to
the KPis, which, in turn, are reflected in the group's
objectives and the company's objectives.
179
As an added benefit, the data in the system support not only the customer satisfaction group, but also
other business units in the company . For example, a
frontline manager can analyze airline expenditures
on a market-by-market basis to evaluate negotiated contract performance or determine the savings
potential for consolidating spending with a single
carrier. A travel manager can leverage the business
intelligence to discover areas w ith high volumes of
unused tickets or offline bookings and devise strategies to adjust behavior and increase overall savings.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Who are the customers for Expedia.com? Why
is customer satisfaction a very important part of
their business?
2. How did Expedia.com improve customer satisfaction with scorecards?
3. What were the challenges, the proposed solution, and the obtained results?
Sources: Based on Microsoft, "Expedia: Scorecard Solution
He lps Online Travel Company Measure the Road to
Greatness," download.microsoft.com/documents/customer
evidence/22483_Expedia_Case_Study.doc (accessed January
2013); and R. Smith, "Expedia-5 Team Blog: Technology," April 5,
2007, expedia-team5.blogspot.com (accessed September 2010).
SECTION 4.10 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is Six Sigma? How is it used as a performance measurement system?
2. What is DMAIC? List and briefly describe the steps involved in DMAIC.
3. Compare BSC and Six Sigma as two competing performance measurement systems.
4. What are the ingredients for an effective performance management system?
Chapter Highlights
• A report is any communication artifact prepared
with the specific intention of conveying information in a presentable form.
• A business report is a written document that
contains informatio n regarding business matters.
• The key to any successful business report is
clarity, brevity, completeness, and correctness.
• Data visualization is the use of visual representations to explore, make sense of, and communicate data.
• Perhaps the most notable information graphic
of the past was developed by Charles J. Minard,
who graphically portrayed the losses suffered by
Napoleon's army in the Russian campaign of 1812.
• Basic chart types include line, bar, and pie chart.
• Specialized charts are often derived from the
basic charts as exceptional cases.
• Data visualizatio n techniques and tools make the
users of business analytics and business intelligence systems better information consumers.
180
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
• Visual analytics is the combination of visualization and predictive analytics.
• Increasing demand for visual analytics coupled
w ith fast-growing data volumes led to exponential growth in highly efficient visualization systems investment.
• Dashboards provide visual displays of important
informatio n that is consolidated and arranged o n
a single screen so that information can be digested
at a single glance and easily drilled in and further
explored.
• BPM refers to the processes, methodologies, metrics, and technologies used by enterprises to measure, monitor, and manage business performance.
• BPM is an outgrowth of BI, and it incorporates many
of its technologies, applications, and techniques.
• The primary difference between BI and BPM is
that BPM is always strategy driven.
• BPM e ncompasses a closed-loop set of p rocesses
that link strategy to execution in order to optimize business performance.
• The key processes in BPM are strategize, plan,
monitor, act, and adjust.
• Strategy answers the question "Where do we
want to go in the future?"
• Decades of research highlight the gap between
strategy and execution .
• The gap between strategy and execution is found
in the broad areas of communication , alignment,
focus, and resources.
• Operational and tactical plans address the questio n "How do we get to the future?"
• An organization's strategic objectives and key
metrics should serve as top-down drivers for
the allocation of the organization's tangible and
intangible assets.
• Monitoring addresses the question of "How are
we doing?"
• The overall impact of the planning a nd reporting
practices of the average company is that management has little time to review results from a strategic perspective, decide w hat should be done
differently, and act on the revised plans.
The drawbacks of using financial data as the core
of a performance measurement system are well
known.
• Performance measures need to be derived from
the corporate and business unit strategies and
from an analysis of the key business processes
require d to achieve those strategies.
• Probably the best-known and most widely used
performance management system is the BSC.
• Central to the BSC methodology is a holistic
vision of a measurement system tied to the strategic direction of the organization.
• As a measurement methodology, BSC is designed
to overcome the limitations of systems that are
financially focused.
• As a strategic management methodology, BSC
enables an organization to align its actions with
its overall strategies.
• In BSC, strategy maps provide a way to formally
represent an organization's strategic objectives
and the causal connections among them.
• Most companies use Six Sigma as a process
improvement methodology that enables them to
scrutinize the ir processes, pinpoint problems, and
apply remedies.
• Six Sigma is a pe rformance management methodology aimed at reducing the number of defects in
a business process to as close to zero DPMO as
possible.
• Six Sigma uses DMAIC, a closed-loop business
improvement model that involves the steps of
defining, measuring, an alyzing, improving, and
controlling a process.
• Substantial performance benefits can be gained
by integrating BSC and Six Sigma.
• The major BPM applications include strategy
management; budgeting, planning, and forecasting; financial consolidation ; profitability analysis
and optimization; and financial, statutory, and
management reporting.
• Over the past 3 to 4 years, the biggest change in
the BPM market has been the consolidation of
the BPM vendors.
Key Terms
business report
balanced scorecard (BSC)
business performance
management (BPM)
dashboards
data visualization
DMAIC
high-performance
key performance indicator (KPI)
learning
performance measurement
systems
report
Six Sigma
visual analytics
Chapter 4 • Business Repo rting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Manage ment
181
Questions for Discussion
1. What are the best practices in business repo rting? How
can we make our repo rts stand out?
2. Why has information visualizatio n become a centerpiece
in the business inte lligence and analytics business? Is
the re a differe nce between informatio n visualizatio n and
visual analytics?
3. Do you think performance dashboards are here to stay? Or
are they abo ut to be o utdate d? What do you think w ill be
the next big wave in business intelligence and analytics?
4. SAP uses the term strategic enterprise management (SEM) ,
Cognos uses the term corporate p erformance management
(CPM), and Hyperion uses the term business p erformance
management (BPM). Are they refen-ing to the same basic
ideas? Provide evidence to suppott your answer.
5. BPM encompasses five basic processes: strategize, plan ,
mo nito r, act, and adjust. Select one of these processes
and discuss the types of software tools and applicatio ns
that are available to suppo rt it. Figure 4.10 provides
some hints. Also , refe r to Bain & Company's list of manageme nt tools for assistance Chain.com/management_
tools/home.asp) .
6. Select a public company of inte rest. Using the company's 2013 annual repott, create three strategic financial
objectives for 2014. Fo r each objective, specify a strategic goal or target. The goals should be consistent with
the company's 2013 financial performance.
7. Netfli:x's strategy of moving to online video downloads
has been widely discussed in a numbe r of articles that
can be found o nline. What are the basic objectives of
Netfli:x's strategy now? What are some of the major
assumptio ns underlying the strategy? Given w hat you
know about discove1y -driven p lanning, do these assumptions seem reasonable?
8. In recent years, the Beyond Budgeting Round Table
(BBRT; bbrt.org) has calle d into questio n traditio nal
budgeting practices. A number of articles on the Web
discuss the BBRT's position. In the BBRT's view, what is
wrong with tod ay's budgeting practices? What does the
BBRT recomme nd as a su bstitute?
9. Distinguish between performance management and
performance measurement.
10. Create a measure for some strategic objective of
interest (you can use one of the objectives formulated in discussion question 6). For the selecte d measure, comple te the measuremen t template found in
Table W4.2. 1 in the o nline file for this chapter.
11. Using the four perspectives of the BSC, create a strategy for a h ypothetical company. Express the strategy as
a series of strategic objectives. Produce a strategy map
d epicting the linkages among the objectives.
12. Compare and contrast the DMAIC mode l w ith the closedloop processes of BPM.
13. Select two companies that you are familiar w ith. What
terms do they use to describe their BPM initiatives and
software suites? Compare and contrast their offerings in
te rms of BPM applicatio ns and fu nctio nality.
Exercises
Teradata University and Other Hands-On Exercises
d. Which applicatio ns are covere d by CPM?
1. Download Tableau (tableausoftware.com). Using the
Visualization_MFG_Sample data set (available as an
Excel file on this book's Web site), answer the following
questions:
a. What is the relatio nship between gross box office
reve nue and other movie-re lated paramete rs given in
the data set?
b. How does this relatio nship vary across diffe re nt years?
Prepare a professional-looking w ritten re pott that is
e nhanced with screenshots of your graphical findings.
2 . Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Select the
"Articles" conte nt type . Browse down the list of articles
and locate o ne titled "Business/ Corporate Pe rformance
Managem ent: Changing Vendo r Landscape and New
Market Ta rgets." Based on the article, answer the following questions:
a. What is the basic focus of the article?
b. What are the majo r "take aways" from the article?
c. In the article, w hich organizational function or role is
most intimate ly involved in CPM?
e . How are these applicatio ns similar to or different
fro m the ap plications covered by Gattner's CPM?
f. What is GRC, and w hat is its link to corporate
pe rformance?
g. What are some of the majo r acquisitions that occurred
in the CPM marketplace over the last cou ple of years?
h. Select two of the companies d iscussed by the atticle
(not SAP, Oracle, or IBM). What are the CPM strategies of each of the companies? What d o the authors
think about these strategies?
3 . Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Select the "Case
Studies" content type. Browse down the list of cases and
locate one titled "Real-Time Dashboards at Western Digital. "
Based on the atticle, answer the following questions:
a. What is VIS?
b . In what ways is the architecture of VIS similar to or
diffe rent from the architecture of BPM?
c. What are the similarities and differe nces between the
closed-loop processes of BPM and the p rocesses in
the OODA de cisio n cycle?
182
Pan II • Descriptive Analytics
d. What types of dashboards are in the system? Are they
operational or tactical, o r are they actually scorecards?
Explain.
e. What are the basic benefits provided by Weste rn
Digital's VIS and dashboards?
f. What sorts of advice can you provide to a company that is getting ready to create its own VIS and
dashboards?
4. Go to Stephen Few's blog "The Perceptual Edge"
(perceptualedge.com) . Go to the sectio n of "Examples."
In this section, he provides critiques of various dashboard
examples. Read a handful o f these examples. Now go
to dundas.com. Select the "Gallery" section of the site.
Once there, click the "Digital Dashboard" selection. You
will be shown a variety of different dashboard demos.
Run a couple of the demos.
a. What so1ts of information and metrics are shown on
the demos? What sorts of actions can you take?
b. Using some of the basic concepts from Few's
critiques, describe some of the good design points
and bad design points of the demos.
5. Download an information visualization tool, such as
Tableau , QlikView, or Spotfire. If your school does not
have an educational agreement with these companies,
then a trial version would be sufficient for this exercise.
Use your own data (if you have any) or use o ne of the
data sets that comes with the tool (they usually have one
or more data sets for demonstration purposes). Study
the data, come up with a couple of business problems,
and use data and visualization to analyze, visualize, and
potentially solve those problems.
6. Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Find the "Tableau
Software Project." Read the description, execute the tasks,
and answer the questio ns.
7. Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Find the assignment for SAS Visual Analytics. Using the information and
step-by-step instructions provided in the assignment, execute the analysis on the SAS Visual Analytics tool (w hich
is a Web-enabled system that does not require any local
installation). Answer the questions posed in the assignment.
8 . Develop a prototype dashboard to display the financial
results of a public company. The prototype can be on
pape r, on Excel, or on a commercial tool. Use data from
the 2012 annual plans of two public companies to illustrate the features of your dashboard.
Team Assignments and Role-Playing Projects
1. Virtually every BPM/ CPM vendor provides case studies
on their Web sites. As a team , select two of these vendors (you can get their names from the Ganner or AMR
lists). Select two case studies from each of these sites. For
each, summarize the problem the customer was trying to
address, the applications or solutions implemented, and
the be nefits the customer received from the system.
2. Go to the Dashboard Spy Web site map for executive dashboards (enterprise-dashboard.com/sitemap). This site
provides a number of examples of executive dashboards.
As a team, select a particular industry (e.g. , healthcare,
banking, airlines). Locate a handful of example dashboards
for that industry. Describe the types of metrics found on
the dashboards. What types of displays are used to provide
the information? Using what you know about dashboard
design, provide a paper prototype of a dashboard for this
information.
3 . Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com. From there,
go to University of Arkansas data sources. Choose one
of the large data sets, and download a large number of
records (this may require you to write an SQL statement
that creates the va1iables that you want to include in the
data set). Come up with at least 10 questions that can be
addressed with information visualization. Using your favorite data visualization tool, analyze the data and prepare a
detail repon that includes screenshots and other visuals.
End-of-Chapter Application Case
Smart Business Reporting Helps Healthcare Providers Deliver Better Care
Premier, which serves more than 2,600 U.S. hospitals and
84,000-plus other healthcare sites, exists to help its members
improve the cost and quality of the care they provide the communities they serve. Premier also assists its members to prepare
for and stay ahead of health reform, including accountable care
and other new models of care delivery and reimbursement.
Challenge
As Premier executives looked to execute this v1s1on , they
recognized that the company's existing technical infrastructure
could not support the new model. Over the years, Premier had
developed a series of "siloed" applications, making it difficult
for members to connect different data sources and metrics and
see the "big picture" of how to drive healthcare transformation.
These platforms and associated software systems also lacked
the scalability required to suppon the massive transaction
volumes that were needed. At the same time, as Premier integrates data in new ways, it needs to ensure that the historic
high level of data privacy and security is maintained. Moving
forward with new technology, Premier had to confirm that
it can isolate each healthcare organization's information to
continue to meet patient privacy requirements and prevent
u nauthorized access to sensitive information.
Solution-Bridging the Information Gap
Premier's "re-platforming" effort represents groundbreaking
work to enable the sharing and analysis of data from its thousands of member organizations. The new data architecture
Chapter 4 • Business Reporting, Visual Analytics, and Business Performance Management
183
and infrastructure uses IBM software and hardware to deliver
trusted informatio n in the right context at the right time to
users based o n their roles. Using the new platform, Premier
members will be able to use the portal to access the integrated
system for various clinical, business, and com pliance-related
applications. From a clinical aspect, they will have access to
best practices fro m leading hospitals and healthcare experts
across the nation and can match patient care protocols with
clinical o utcomes to improve patient care .
Applications o n the new platform will run the gamut
from retrospective analysis of patient populatio ns focused on
identifying how to reduce readmissio ns and hospital-acquired
conditio ns to near-real-time identification of patients receiving sub-the rapeutic doses of an antibio tic. Business users
within the alliance will be able to compare the effectiveness
of care locally and with national benchmarks, which will help
them improve resource utilizatio n, minimizing waste both in
healthcare delivery and in administrative costs. Additionally,
this integrated data w ill help healthcare o rganizations contract with payers in support of integrated, accountable care.
Premier's commitment to improving healthcare extends
beyond its member organizations. As part of its work, it
teamed with IBM to create an integrated set of data models
and templates that would help o ther o rganizatio ns establish
a comprehensive data warehouse of clinical, operational,
and outcomes information. This data model, called the IBM
Healthcare Provider Data Warehouse (HCPDW) , can help
healthcare o rganizations p rovide their staff with accurate and
timely informatio n to suppo rt the delivery of evidence-based,
patient-centric, and accountable care .
help doctors gain the information they need to avoid patient
infectio ns that are common in hospitals, and w ill help pharmacists ensure safe and effective medication use.
Data from facility admissio n , discharge, and transfer
(ADT) systems along w ith depattmental systems, such as
pharmacy, microbiology, and lab information systems, will
be sent to Pre mier's core data warehouse as HL7 messages,
w ith near-real-time processing of this data occurring at a
rate of 3,000 transactions per second. With the h igh performance that DB2 data software provides, Premier members
can quickly learn of emerging healthcare issues, such as an
increased incidence of MRSA (a highly drug-resistant version
of staphylococcus aureus bacteria) in a particular area.
Data from IBM DB2 database software w ill be loaded
into the IBM Netezza data warehouse appliance to enable
members to conduct advanced analytics faster and easier than
was previously possible. IBM Cognos Business Intelligence
will be used to help members identify and analyze opportunities a nd trends across their o rganizations.
IBM InfoSphere software is used to acquire, transform,
and create a single, trusted view of each constituent or entity.
The data is then integrated and validated , and clinical or
business rules management is applied through WebSphere
ILOG software. These rules can help automatically notify
clinicians of critical issues, such as the appropriate dosing
of anti-coagulation medication . IBM Tivoli software provides
security and service manageme nt. Application development is built upon Rational® software and a common user
experience and collaboration are provided through IBM
Connections software.
Journey to Smarter Decisions
Business Benefits
Fundamental to helping Premier turn its vision into reality is
an Information Agenda strategy that transforms information
into a strategic asset that can be leveraged across applications,
processes, and decisions. "In its simplest form, Premier's
platform brings together informatio n from all areas of the
healthcare system, aggregates it, normalizes it, and benchmarks it, so it impacts performance w hile the patient is still in
the hospital or the physician 's office," says Figlioli, senior vice
president of healthcare informatics at the Premier healthcare
alliance . "We wanted a flexible, nimble partne r because this
is no t a cookie-cutter kind of project," says Figlioli. "Premier
and IBM brought to the table an approach that was best of
breed and included a cultural and partnering dimension that
was fundamentally differe nt from other vendors."
The organization's IT division is building its new infrastructure from the ground up. This includes replacing its existing x86 servers fro m a variety of hardware vendors with IBM
POWER7 processor-based systems to gain greate r performance
at a lower cost. In fact, an early pilot showed up to a 50 percent increase in processing power with a reduction in costs.
Additionally, the company is moving its core data warehouse
to IBM DB2 pureScale, w hich is highly scalable to support
the growing amount of data that Premier is collecting from its
members. As part of Premier's platform, DB2 pureScale will
Potential benefits for saving lives, helping p eople enjoy
healthier lives, and reducing healthcare costs are enormous.
In one Premier project, 157 participating hospitals saved an
estimated 24,800 lives while reducing healthcare spending by
$2.85 billion. The new system helps providers better identify which treatments will enable their patients to live longer,
healthier lives. It also supports Premier members' work to
address healthcare reform and othe r legislative requirements.
"When I think about my children, I think about what
it w ill mean for them to live in a society that has solved the
complexities of the healthcare system, so that no matter where
they live, no matter what they do, no matte r w hat condition
they have, they can have the best possible care," says Figlioli.
Over the next 5 years, Premier plans to provide its
members with many new applications in support of healthcare reform and other legislative requirements. As capabilities are added, the Saas model w ill enable the platform to
support its commitment to keep all 2,600 hospital members
o n the same page, and even expand its user community.
With its new approach , Premier IT staff can develop, test,
and launch new applications from a central location to provide users with updates concurrently. This is a lower-cost
way to give Premier members an analytics solution with a
shorter time to value.
184 Pan II • Descrip tive Analytics
QUESTIONS FOR THE END-OF-CHAPTER
APPLICATION CASE
1. What is Pre mier? What does it do?
2. What were the main challenges for Premie r to achieve
its visio n?
3. What was the solution p rovided by IBM and other
partners?
4 . What were the results? Can you th ink of other benefits
coming from such an integrated system?
Source: IBM, Custome r Success Story, "Premier Healthcare Alliance
Making a Quantum Leap Toward More Integrated Care and
Improved Provider Performance," ibm.com/smarterplanet/us/
en/leadership/premier/ass ets/pdf/IBM_Premier.pdf (accessed
February 2013).
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p
A
R
T
Predictive Analytics
LEARNING OBJECTIVES FOR PART III
• Learn the role of predictive analytics (PA) and
data mining (DM) in solving business problems
• Gain familiarity with the process, methods, and
applications of text analytics and text mining
• Learn the processes and methods for
conducting data mining projects
• Learn the taxonomy of Web mining solutionsWeb content mining, Web usage mining, and
Web structure mining
• Learn the role and capabilities of predictive modeling techniques, including artificial neural networks (ANN) and support vector machines (SVM)
• Gain familiarity with the process, methods, and
applications of Web analytics and Web mining
• Learn the contemporary variations to data
mining, such as text mining and Web mining
185
CHAPTER
Data Mining
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Define data mining as an enabling
technology for business analytics
• Understand the steps involved in data
preprocessing for data mining
• Understand the objectives and benefits
of data mining
• Learn different methods and algorithms
of data mining
• Become familiar with the wide range of
applications of data mining
• Build aware ness of the existing data
mining software tools
• Learn the standardized data mining
processes
• Understand the privacy issues, pitfalls,
and myths of data mining
enerally speaking, data mining is a way to develop intelligence (i.e ., actio nable
information or knowledge) fro m data that an organization collects, organizes,
and stores . A wide range of data mining techniques are being used by o rganizations to gain a better understanding of their customers and their own operations
and to solve complex organizational problems. In this chapter, we study data mining
as an enabling technology for bu siness analytics, learn about the standard processes of
conducting data mining projects, understand and build expertise in the use of majo r data
mining techniques, develop awareness of the existing software tools, and explo re privacy
issues, commo n myths, and pitfalls that are often associated with data mining.
G
5.1 Opening Vignette: Cabela's Ree ls in More Custo me rs w ith Advanced Ana lytics
and Data Mining 187
5.2 Data Mining Concepts and Application s 189
5.3 Data Mining Applicatio n s 201
5.4 Data Mining Process 204
5.5 Data Mining Methods 214
5.6 Data Mining Software Tools 228
5.7 Data Mining Privacy Issues , Myths, a nd Blunde rs
186
234
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
5.1
OPENING VIGNETTE: Cabela's Reels in More Customers
with Advanced Analytics and Data Mining
Advanced analytics, such as data mining, has become an integral part of many retailers'
decisio n-making processes. Utilizing large and information-rich transactional and
customer data (that they collect on a daily basis) to optimize their business processes is
not a choice for large-scale retailers anymo re, but a necessity to stay competitive. Cabela's
is one of those retailers who understands the value proposition and strives to fully utilize
their data assets.
BACKGROUND
Started around a kitchen table in Chappell, Nebraska, in 1961, Cabela's has grown to
become the largest direct marketer, and a leading sp ecialty re tailer, of hunting, fishing ,
camping, and related outdoor mercha ndise w ith $2.3 billion in sales. Credited largely to
its information technology and analytics project initiatives, Cabela's has become one of
the very few truly o mni-channel retailers (an advanced form of multi-channel retailer who
concentrate on a seamless approach to the consumer experience through all available
shopping channels, including bricks-and-mo rtar, televisio n , catalog, and e-commercethrough compute rs and mobile devices).
Essentially, Cabela's wanted to have a single view of the custo mers across multiple
channels to better focus its marketing efforts and drive increased sales. For more than a
decade, Cabela's has relied on SAS statistics and data mining tools to help analyze the
data it gathers from sales transactions, market research , and demographic data associated w ith its large database of customers. "Using SAS data mining tools, we create
predictive models to optimize customer selection for all customer contacts. Cabela's uses
these prediction scores to maximize marketing spend across channels and within each
customer's personal contact strategy. These efforts have allowed Cabela's to continue its
growth in a profitable manner," says Corey Bergstrom, director of marketing research
and analytics for Cabela's. "We're not talking single-digit growth. Over several years, it's
double-digit growth ."
USING THE BEST OF THE BREED (SAS AND TERADATA) FOR ANALYTICS
By dismantling the informatio n silos existing in different branches, Cabela's was able to
create w hat Tillotson (manager of customer analytics at Cabela's) calls "a holistic view
of the customer. " "Using SAS and Teradata, our statisticians were able to create the first
comple te picture of the custo me rs and company activities. The flexibility of SAS in taking
data fro m multiple sources, w ithout help from IT, is critical."
As the volume and complexity of data increases, so does the time spent on preparing
and ana lyzing it. Faster and better analysis results comes from timely and through modeling of large data sources. For that, an integration of data and model building algorithms
is needed. To help organizatio ns meet their needs for such integrated solutio ns, SAS
recently joined forces w ith Teradata (one of the leading providers of data warehousing
solutio ns) to create tools and techniques aimed at improving speed and accuracy for predictive and explanatory models.
Prior to the integration of SAS a nd Teradata, data for modeling and scoring customers was stored in a data mart. This process required a large amount of time to construct, bringing togethe r disparate data sources and k eeping statisticians from working
on analytics. On average, the statisticians spent 1 to 2 weeks pe r month just building the
data. Now, with the integratio n of the two systems, statisticians can leverage the power of
SAS using the Teradata ware house as one source of information rathe r than the multiple
187
188
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
sources that existed before. This change has provided the opportunity to build models
faster and with less data latency upon execution.
"With the SAS [and] Teradata integration we have a lot more flexibility. We can use
more data and build more models to execute faster," says Dean Wynkoop, manager of
data management for Cabela's.
The integration e nabled Cabela's to bring its data close to its analytic functions in
seconds versus days or weeks. It can also more easily find the highest-value customers
in the best locations most likely to buy via the best channe ls. The integrated solution
reduces the need to copy data from one system to another before analyzing the most
likely indicators, allowing Cabela's to run related queries and flagging potentially ideal
new prospects before the competition does. Analytics helps Cabela's to
• Improve the return on its direct marketing investment. Instead of costly
mass mailings to every zip code in a 120-mile radius of a store, Cabela's uses predictive modeling to focus its marketing efforts within the geographies of customers most like ly to generate the greatest possible incremental sales, resulting in a
60 percent increase in response rates.
• Select optimal site locations. "People u sed to come to us with suggestions
o n w here they'd like our next store to be built," says Sarah Jaeger, marketing
statistician. "As we move forward, we proactively leverage data to make retail site
selections. "
• Understand the value of customers across all channels. With detailed customer activity across store, Web site , and catalog purchases, SAS helps Cabela's
build prediction, clustering, a nd associatio n models that rate customers on a fivestar system. This system helps enhance the customer experience, offering customer
service reps a clear unde rstanding of that customer's value to better personalize
their interactions. "We treat all customers well, but we can develop strategies to
treat higher-value customers a little better," says Josh Cox, marketing statistician .
• Design promotional offers that best enhance sales and profitability. With
insig hts gained from SAS Analytics, Cabela's has learned that while promotions generate only marginal additional customer spending over the long haul, they do bring
customers into their stores or to the Internet for catalog purchases.
• Tailor direct marketing offers to customer preferences. Cabela's can identify
the customer's favorite channel and selectively send related marketing materials. "Does the customer like the 100-page catalogs or the 1,500-page catalogs?"
Bergstrom says. "The customer tells us this through his past interactions so we can
send the catalog that matches his o r her needs. SAS gives Cabela's the power to
conceivably personalize a unique marketing message, flyer, or catalog to eve1y customer. The o nly limitation is the creation of each piece," Bergstrom says.
The integrated analytics solution (SAS Analytics with the Teradata in-database
solution) allowed Cabela's to personalize catalog offerings; select new store locations and
estimate their first-year sales; choose up-sell offerings that increase profits; and schedule promotions to drive sales. By doing so, the company has experienced double-digit
growth . "Our statisticians in the past spent 75 percent of their time just trying to manage
data. Now they have more time for analyzing the data with SAS. And we have become
more flexible in the marketplace. That is just priceless." Wynkoop says.
Cabela's is currently working on analyzing the clickstream patterns of customers
shopping online. Its goal is to put the perfect offer in front of the customer based on
historical patterns of similar shoppers. "It is being tested and it works- we just need to
productionalize it," Bergstrom says. "This would not be possible without the in-database
processing capabilities of SAS, together with Teradata," Wynkoop says.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 189
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. Why should retailers, especially omni-channel retailers, pay extra attention to
advanced analytics and data mining?
2. What are the top challenges for multi-channel retails? Can you think of other
industry segments that face similar problems?
3. What are the sources of data that retailers such as Cabela's use for their data mining
projects?
4. What does it mean to have a "single view of the customer"? How can it be
accomplished?
5. What type of analytics help d id Cabela's get from their efforts? Can you think of any
other potential benefits of analytics for large-scale retailers like Cabela's?
6. What was the reason for Cabela's to bring together SAS and Teradata, the two
leading vendors in analytics marketplace?
7. What is in-database analytics, and why would you need it?
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETTE
The retail industry is amongst the most challenging because of the change that they
have to deal with constantly. Understanding customer needs and wants, likes and
dislikes, is an ongoing challenge. Ones who are able to create an intimate relationship
through a "holistic view of the customer" will be the beneficiaries of this seemingly
chaotic environment. In the midst of these challenges, what works in favor of these
retailers is the availability of the technologies to collect and an alyze data about their
customers. Applying advanced analytics tools (i.e ., knowledge discovery techniques)
to these data sources provide them with the insight that they need for better decision
making. Therefore the retail industry has become one of the leading users of the new
face of analytics. Data mining is the prime candidate for better manage ment of this
data-rich, knowledge-poor business environment. The study described in the opening
vignette clearly illustrates the power of analytics and data mining to create a holistic
view of the customer for better customer relationship manage ment. In this chapter,
you w ill see a wide variety of data mining applications solving complex problems
in a variety of industries where the data is used to leverage competitive business
advantage.
Sources: SAS, Customer Case Studies, sas.com/success/cabelas.html; and Retail Information Systems
News, April 3, 2012, http://risnews.edgl.com/retail-best-practices/Why·Cabela-s-Has-Emerged-as-theTop-Omni-Channel-Retailer794 70.
5.2
DATA MINING CONCEPTS AND APPLICATIONS
In an interview with Computerworld magazine in January 1999, Dr. Arno Penzias (Nobel
laureate and former chief scientist of Bell Labs) identified data mining from organizational databases as a key application for corporations of the near future. In response
to Computerworld's age-old question of "What will be the killer applications in the
corporation?" Dr. Penzias replied: "Data mining. " He then added, "Data mining w ill
become much more important and companies will throw away nothing about their customers because it w ill be so valuable. If you're not doing this, you're out of business."
Similarly, in an article in Harvard Business Review, Thomas Davenport (2006) argued
that the latest strategic weapon for companies is analytical decision making, providing
190
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
examples of companies such as Amazon.com, Capital One, Marriott International, and
others that have used analytics to better understand their customers and optimize the ir
extended supply chains to maximize their returns on investment while providing the
best customer service. This level of success is highly dependent on a company understanding its customers, vendors, business processes, and the extended supply ch ain
very well.
A large portion of "understanding the customer" can come from analyzing the vast
amount of data that a company collects. The cost of storing and processing data has
decreased dramatically in the recent past, and, as a result, the amount of data stored in
electronic form has grown at an explosive rate. With the creation of large databases, the
possibility of analyzing the data stored in them has emerged. The term data mining was
originally used to describe the process through which previously unknown patterns in
data were discovered. This definition has since been stretched beyond those limits by
some software vendors to include most forms of data analysis in order to increase sales
with the popularity of the data mining label. In this chapter, we accept the original definition of data mining.
Although the term data mining is relatively new, the ideas behind it are not. Many
of the techniques used in data mining have their roots in traditional statistical analysis
and artificial inte lligence work done since the early part of the 1980s. Why, then, has it
suddenly gained the attention of the business world? Following are some of most pronounced reasons:
• More intense competition at the global scale driven by customers' ever-changing
needs and wants in an increasingly saturated marketplace.
• General recognition of the untapped value hidden in large data sources.
• Consolidation and integration of database records, which enables a single view of
customers, vendors, transactions, e tc.
• Consolidation of databases and other data repositories into a single location in the
form of a data warehouse.
• The exponential increase in data processing and storage technologies.
• Significant reduction in the cost of hardware and software for data storage and
processing.
• Movement toward the de-massification (conversion of information resources into
nonphysical form) of business practices.
Data generated by the Internet is increasing rapidly in both volume and
complexity . Large amounts of genomic data are being generated and accumulated
a ll over the world. Disciplines such as astronomy and n uclear physics create huge
quantities of data on a regular basis. Medical a nd pharmaceutical researchers constantly generate and store data that can then be used in data mining applications to
ide ntify better ways to accurately diagnose a nd treat illnesses a nd to discove r new
a nd improved drugs.
On the commercial side, perhaps the most common use of data mining has been
in the finance, retail, and healthcare sectors. Data mining is used to detect and reduce
fraudulent activities, especially in insurance claims and credit card use (Chan et al. , 1999);
to identify customer buying patterns (Hoffman, 1999); to reclaim profitable customers
(Hoffman , 1998); to identify trading rules from historical data; and to aid in increased
profitability using market-basket analysis. Data mining is already widely used to better target clients, and with the widespread development of e-commerce, this can only
become more imperative with time. See Application Case 5.1 for information on how
Infinity P&C has used predictive an alytics and data mining to improve customer service,
combat fraud, and increase profit.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
191
Application Case 5.1
Smarter Insurance: Infinity P&C Improves Customer Service and Combats Fraud
with Predictive Analytics
Infinity Property & Casualty Corporation, a provider
of nonstandard personal automobile insurance with
an emphasis on higher-risk drivers, depends on its
ability to identify fraudulent claims for sustained
profitability. As a result of implementing analytics
tools (from IBM SPSS), Infinity P&C has doubled the
accuracy of its fraud identification, contributing to a
return on investment of 403 percent per a Nucleus
Research study. And the benefits don't stop there:
According to Bill Dibble, senior vice president in
Claims Operations at Infinity P&C, the use of predictive analytics in serving the company's legitimate
claimants is of equal or even greater importance.
Low-Hanging Fruit
Initially, Dibble focused the power of predictive analytics (i.e., data mining) to assist the company's Special
Investigative Unit (SIU). "In the early days of SIU,
adjusters would use laminated cards with 'red flags' to
indicate potential fraud. Taking those 'red flags' and
developing rules seemed like an area of low -hanging
fruit where we could quickly demonstrate the benefit
of our investment in predictive analytics. "
Dibble then leveraged a successful approach
from another part of the business. "We recognized
how important credit was in the underwriting arena,
and I thought, 'Let's score our claims in the same
way, to give us an indicator of potential fraud.' The
larger the number we attach to a case, the more apt
we are to have a fraud situation. Lower number, get
the claim paid." Dibble notes that fraud represents
a $20 billion exposure to the insurance indust1y and
in certain venues could be an element in around 40
percent of claims. "A key benefit of the IBM SPSS
system is its ability to continually analyze and score
these claims, which helps ensure that we get the
claim to the right adjuster at the right time," he says.
Adds Tony Smarrelli, vice president of National
Operations: "Industry reports estimate one out of five
claims is pure fraud-either opportunity fraud, where
someone exaggerates an injury or vehicle damage, or
the hard-core criminal rings that work w ith unethical
clinics and attorneys. Rather than putting all five
customers through an investigato1y process, SPSS
helps us 'fast-track' four of them and close their cases
within a matter of days. This results in much happier
customers, contributes to a more efficient workflow
with improved cycle times, and improves retention
due to an overall better claims experience."
An Unexpected Benefit
Dibble saw subrogation, the process of collecting
damages from the at-fault driver's insurance company, as another piece of low-hanging fruit-and he
was right. In the first month of using SPSS, Infinity
P&C saw record recovery on paid collision claims,
adding about $1 million directly to the company's
bottom line and virtually eliminating the third-party
collection fees of more than $70,000 per month that
the company was used to paying. What's more,
each of the following 4 or 5 months was even better
than the previous one. "I never thought we would
recover the money that we've recovered with SPSS
in the subrogation area," he says. "That was a real
surprise to us. It brought a lot of attention to SPSS
within the company, and to the value of predictive
analytics in general."
The rules-based IBM SPSS solution is well
suited to Infinity P&C's business. For example , in
states that have no-fault benefits, an insurance company can recover commercial vehicles or vehicles
over a certain gross vehicle weight. "We can put a
rule in IBM SPSS that if medical expenses are paid
on a claim involving this type of vehicle, it is immediately referred to the subrogation department,"
explains Dibble. "This is a real-time ability that
keeps us from missing potentially valuable subrogation opportunities, which used to happen a lot
when we relied solely on adjuster intuition."
The rules are just as important on the fraud
investigation side. Continues Dibble: "If we see
an accident that happened around 1:00 A.M. and
involved a gas-guzzling GMC Suburban, we need to
start looking for fraud. So we dig a little deeper:
Is this guy upside-down on his loan, such that
he owes more money than the car is worth? Did
(Continued)
192 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.1
(Continued}
the accident happen in a remote spot, suggesting
that it may have been staged? Does the individual
move frequently or list multiple addresses? As these
elements are added to the equation, the score keeps
building, and the case is more and more likely to be
referred to one of our SIU investigators."
With SPSS, Infinity P&C has reduced SIU referral time from an average of 45- 60 days to approximately 1-3 days, which means that investigators can
get to work on the case before memories and stories
sta1t to change, rental and storage charges mount,
and the likelihood of getting an attorney involved
increases. The company is also creating a better
claim for the SIU to investigate; a higher score correlates to a higher probability of fraud.
Making Us Smarter
SPSS rules sta1t to score the claim immediately
on first notice of loss (FNOL) when the claimant
reports the accident. "We have completely revised
our FNOL screens to collect more data points," says
Dibble. "SPSS has made us much smarter in asking
questions. " Currently SPSS collects data mainly from
the company's claims and policy systems; a future
initiative to leverage the product's text mining capabilities will make the information in claims notes
available as well.
Having proven its value in subrogation and
SIU, the SPSS solution is poised for expansion within
Infinity P&C. "One of our key objectives moving forward w ill be what we call 'right scripting,' where
we can script the appropriate questions for call center agents based on the answers they get from the
claimant,'' says Dibble. "We'll also be instituting a
process to flag claims with high litigation potential.
By reviewing past litigation claims, we can identify
predictive traits and handle those cases on a priority
basis." Decision management, customer retention,
pricing analysis, and dashboards are also potential
future applications of SPSS technology.
But at the end of the day, excellent customer
service remains the driving force behind Infinity
P&C's use of predictive analytics. Concludes Dibble:
"My goal is to pay the legitimate customer ve1y
quickly and get him on his way. People who are
more economically challenged need their car; they
typically don't have a spare vehicle . This is the car
they use to go back and forth to work, so I want to
get them out and on the road without delay. IBM
SPSS makes this possible."
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did Infinity P&C improve customer service
with data mining?
2. What were the challenges, the proposed solution,
and the obtained results?
3. What was their implementation strategy? Why is
it important to produce results as early as possible in data mining studies?
Source: public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/en/ytc03160
usen/YTC03160USEN.PDF (accessed January 2013).
Definitions, Characteristics, and Benefits
Simply defined, data mining is a term used to describe discovering or "mining" knowledge from large amounts of data. When considered by analogy, one can easily realize
that the term data mining is a misnomer; that is, mining of gold from within rocks or
dirt is referred to as "gold" mining rather than "rock" or "dirt" mining. Therefore, data
mining perhaps should have been named "knowledge mining" or "knowledge discovery. " Despite the mismatch between the term and its meaning, data mining has become
the choice of the community. Many other names that are associated with data mining
include knowledge extraction, pattern analysis, data archaeology, information harvesting, pattern searching, and data dredging.
Technically speaking , data mining is a process that uses statistical, mathematical,
and artificial intelligence techniques to extract and identify useful information and subsequent knowledge (or patterns) from large sets of data. These patterns can be in the form
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
of business rules, affinities, correlations, trends, or prediction models (see Nemati and
Barko, 2001). Most literature defines data mining as "the nontrivial process of identifying
valid, novel, p otentially useful, and ultimately understandable patterns in data stored in
structured databases," where the data are organized in records structured by categorical,
ordinal, and continuo us variables (Fayyad et al. , 1996). In this definition, the meanings of
the key terms are as follows:
• Process implies that data mining comprises many iterative steps.
• Nontrivial means that some experimentatio n-type search or inference is involved ;
that is, it is not as straightforward as a computatio n of predefined quantities.
• Valid means that the discovered patterns should hold true on new data with
sufficient degree of certainty.
• Novel means that the patterns are not previously known to the user within the
context of the system being analyzed.
• Potentially useful means that the discovered p atte rns sho uld lead to some benefit to
the user or task.
• Ultimately understandable means that the pattern should make business sense that
leads to the user saying "mmm! It makes sense; why didn't I think of that" if not
immediately, at least after some post processing.
Data mining is not a new discipline, but rather a new definition for the use of
many disciplines. Data mining is tightly positioned at the intersectio n of many disciplines,
including statistics, artificial intelligence , machine learning, management science, information systems, and databases (see Figure 5.1) . Using advances in all of these disciplines,
data mining strives to make progress in extracting u seful information and knowledge
from large databases. It is an eme rging field that has attracted much attention in a very
sho rt time.
The following are the major characteristics and objectives of data mining:
• Data are often buried deep within very large databases, which sometimes contain
data from several years. In many cases, the data are cleansed and consolidated into
a data wareho use . Data may be presented in a variety of formats (see Technology
Insights 5.1 for a brief taxonomy of data).
Management Science
and Information Systems
FIGURE 5.1
Data Mining as a Blend of Multiple Disciplines.
193
194 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
• The d ata mining env ironment is u sually a client/ se rver architecture o r a Web-based
informatio n syste ms a rchitecture .
• Sophisticate d n ew tools, including advanced visu alization tools, h elp to re move
the informa tion ore burie d in corporate files or archival public records. Finding
it involves m assaging and synchronizing the d ata to get the right results. Cuttingedg e data miners are also ex ploring the u sefulness of soft data (i.e ., unstructured
text sto re d in su ch places as Lo tus Notes databases, text files o n the Internet, or
e nte rprise-wide intra nets).
• The miner is often an end user, empowere d b y d ata drills and other p ower query
tools to ask a d h oc q u estion s a nd o btain answers quickly, w ith little o r n o p rogra mming skill.
• Striking it rich often involves finding an unexpected result and requires end u sers to
think creatively througho ut the p rocess, including the interpretation of the find ings.
• Data mining tools are re adily combined with sp read sheets a nd o ther so ftware
d evelo pme nt tools . Thus, the mined data can be an alyze d a nd d e p loyed quickly
and easily.
Because of the la rg e amo unts of data and m assive search efforts, it is sometimes
ne cessary to u se paralle l processing for d ata mining.
A company that e ffective ly leverages d ata mining tools a nd technologies can acquire
and m aintain a stra tegic competitive ad vantage. Data mining o ffe rs o rganizatio ns an indisp en sable decisio n-enhancing e nvironme nt to e x ploit new o ppo rtu nities by tra nsforming
d ata into a strategic weap o n . See Nemati an d Barko (2001) for a more detaile d d iscussio n
o n the strategic ben efits o f d ata mining.
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 5.1
A Simple Taxonomy of Data
Data refers to a collectio n of facts usually obtained as the result of experiences, observations, or
experiments . Data may consist of numbers, letters, words, images, voice recordings, and so on
as measurements of a set of variables. Data are often viewed as the lowest level of abstraction
from which information and then knowledge is derived.
At the highest level of abstraction , one can classify data as structured and unstructured
(or semistructured) . Unstructured/ semistructured data is composed of any combination o f textual, image1y , voice, and Web content. Unstructured/ semistructured data will be covered in
more detailed in the text mining and Web mining chapters (see Chapters 7 and 8). Structured
data is w hat data mining algorithms use, and can be classified as categorical or numeric. The
categorical data can be subdivided into nominal or ordinal data, whereas numeric data can be
subdivided into interval or ratio. Figure 5.2 shows a simple taxonomy of data.
• Categorical data represent the labels of multiple classes used to divide a variable into
specific groups. Examples of categorical variables include race, sex, age group, and
educational level. Although the latter two variables may also be considered in a numerical manner by using exact values for age and highest grade completed , it is often more
informative to categorize such variables into a relatively small number of ordered classes.
The categorical data may also be called discrete data, implying that it represents a finite
number of values w ith no continuum between them. Even if the values used for the
categorical (or discrete) variables are numeric, these numbers are nothing more than symbols and do not imply the possibility of calculating fractional values.
• Nominal data contain measurements of simple codes assigned to objects as labels, which
are not measurements. For example , the variable marital status can be generally categorized as (1) single , (2) married, and (3) divorced. Nominal data can be represented
w ith binomial values having two possible values (e.g. , yes/ no, true/ false, good/ bad), or
multinomial values having three or more possible values (e.g. , brown/ green/ blue, w hite/
black/ Latino/ Asian, single/ married/ divorced).
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
195
Data
i
Unstructured or
Semi-structured
Structured
Categorical
Nominal
FIGURE 5.2
II
Ordinal
Numerical
I I
Interval
Textual
I ~I__
R_a_t_io-~
Multimedia
Audio
A Simple Taxonomy of Data in Data Mining.
• Ordinal data contain codes assig ned to objects or events as labels that also represent
the rank o rde r among the m. For example, the variable credit score can be generally
categorized as (1) low, (2) medium, or (3) high. Similar ordered relationships can be seen
in variables such as age group (i.e., child, young, middle-aged, elderly) and educational
level (i.e. , high school, college, graduate school). Some data mining algorithms, such as
ordinal multiple logistic regression, take into account this additio nal rank-order information to build a bette r classification model.
• Numeric data represent the numeric values of specific variables. Examples of numerically
valued variables include age, number of childre n , to tal household income (in U.S. dollars),
travel distance (in miles) , and temperature (in Fahrenheit degrees). Numeric values representing a variable can be integer (taking o nly whole numbers) or real (taking also
the fractional number). The nume ric data may also be called continuous data, implying
that the variable contains continuo us measures on a specific scale that allows insertion
of inte rim values. Unlike a discrete variable, which represents finite, countable data, a
continuous variable represents scalable measurements, and it is possible for the data to
contain an infinite number of fractio nal values.
• Interval data are variables that can be measured on interval scales. A common example
of interval scale measureme nt is temperature on the Celsius scale. In this particular scale,
the unit of measure ment is 1/ 100 of the difference b etween the melting temperature and
the boiling temperature of water in atmospheric pressure; that is, there is not an absolute
zero value.
• Ratio data include measurement variables commonly found in the physical sciences and
e ngineering. Mass, length, time, plane angle, e ne rgy, and electric charge are examples of
physical measures that are ratio scales. The scale type takes its name from the fact that
measure ment is the estimation of the ratio between a magnitude of a continuous quantity
and a unit magnitude of the same kind. Informally, the distinguishing feature of a ratio
scale is the possession of a nonarbitrary zero value. For example, the Kelvin temperature
scale has a no narb itrary zero point of absolute zero, which is equal to -273.15 degrees
Celsius. This zero point is no narbitra1y , because the particles that comprise matter at this
temperature have zero kinetic energy.
Othe r data types, including textual, spatial, imagery, and vo ice, need to be converted
into some form of categorical o r numeric representation b efore they can be processed by data
mining algorithms. Data can also be classified as static o r d ynamic (i.e., temporal o r time-series).
Some data mining methods and algorithms are very selective about the type of data that
they can handle . Providing them w ith incompatible data types may lead to incorrect models or
(more ofte n) halt the model developme nt p rocess. For example, some data mining methods
HTML/XML
Image/Video
196 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
need all of the variables (both input as well as output) represented as numerically valued
variables (e.g., neural networks, support vector machines, logistic regression). The nominal or
ordinal variables are converted into numeric representations using some type of 1-of-N pseudo
variables (e.g., a categorical variable with three unique values can be transformed into three
pseudo variables w ith binary values- I or 0). Because this process may increase the number
of variables, one should be cautious about the effect of such representations, especially for the
categorical variables that have la rge numbe rs of unique values.
Similarly, some data mining methods, such as ID3 (a classic decision tree algorithm) and
rough sets (a relatively new rule induction algorithm), need all of the variables represented as
categorically valued variables. Early versions of these methods required the user to discretize
numeric variables into categorical representations before they could be processed by the algorithm. The good news is that most implementations of these algorithms in widely available
software tools accept a mix of numeric and nominal variables and internally make the necessary
conve rsio ns before processing the data.
Application Case 5.2 illustrates an interesting application of data mmmg w here
predictive models are used by a police department to identify crime hotspots and better
utilize limited crime-fighting resources.
Application Case 5.2
Harnessing Analytics to Combat Crime: Predictive Analytics Helps Memphis Police Department
Pinpoint Crime and Focus Police Resources
When Larry Godwin took over as director of the
Memphis Police Department (MPD) in 2004, crime
across the metro area was surging, and city leaders
were growing impatient. "The mayor told me I want
this crime problem fixed," recalls Godwin, a 38-year
veteran of the MPD. But the new director understood that a business-as-usual approach to crime
fighting would no lo nger be good enough. Early
o n in his te nure, Godwin convened a meeting of
top law enforcement experts to formulate a fresh
strategy to turn the tide in the city's crime war.
Among the participants in this mini-summit was Dr.
Richard Janikowski, a professor of criminology at
the University of Memphis, who specialized in using
predictive analytics to better understand patterns.
Fighting Crime with Analytics
Janikowski proposed the idea of mining MPD's
crime data banks to help zero in on where and
when criminals were hitting hardest and then
"focus police resources intelligently by putting
them in the right place, on the right day, at the
right time. " By doing so, he said, "you 'll e ither
deter criminal activity or you 're going to catch people. " The idea made sense to Godwin and in short
order the MPD and the University of Memphisa long with Project Safe Neighborhoods- teamed
up in a pilot program that later became known
as Operatio n Blue CRUSH, or Crime Reduction
Utilizing Statistical History.
The data-driven pilot was wildly successful.
During one 2-hour operatio n, officers arrested more
criminals than they normally apprehend over an
entire weekend. But for Blue CRUSH to be successful on a citywide scale, the MPD would need to align
its resources and operations to take full advantage
of the power of predictive analytics. If done right,
a city-wide rollout of Blue CRUSH had the potential to save money through efficient deployments- a
b ig plus in a city facing serious budget pressureseven as the intelligence-based approach would help
drive dow n overall crime rates. Shortly after, all precincts embraced Blue CRUSH, and predictive analytics has become one of the most potent weapons
in MPD's crime-fighting arsenal. At the heart of the
system is a versatile statistical analysis tool-IBM
SPSS Modeler-that enables officers to unlock the
intelligence hidden in the department's huge digital library of crime records and police reports going
back nearly a decade.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
Safer Streets
All indications are that Blue CRUSH and its
intelligence-drive n crime fighting techniques are
putting a serious dent in Memphis area crime. Since
the program was launched, the numbe r of Part
One crimes-a category of serious offenses includ ing homicide , rape, aggravated assault, auto theft,
and larceny-has plummeted, dropping 27 percent
from 2006 to 2010. Intelligent positioning of
resources has been a major factor in the decline,
helping to deter criminal activity by having more
officers patrolling the right area at the right time on
the right day.
More inte lligent deployments also leads to
faster reaction time, since officers are likely to be
better p ositioned to respond to an unfolding crime.
In addition, MPD's organized crime units are using
data from the predictive analytics solutio n to run
special details that lead to successful multi-agency
drug busts and other criminal roundups. Not surprisingly, arrest rates have been steadily improving
across the Memphis area, w hich has a population
of 680,000.
197
Today, the MPD is continuing to explore new
ways to exploit statistical analysis in its crime-fighting
mission. Of course, predictive an alytics and data
mining is just one part of MPD's overall strategy for
keeping Memphis residents safe. Effective liaisons
with community groups and businesses, strong partne rships w ith regio nal and federal law e nforcement
agencies, and intelligent organizational and operational structures all play a part in continuing MPD's
success story. "At the end of the day, everybody
wants to reduce crime," says Godwin. "Everybody
wants a safe community because without it, you
don't have anything. "
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did the Memphis Police Department use
data mining to better combat crime?
2. What were the challenges, the proposed solution ,
and the obtained results?
Source: IBM Custome r Story, "Harnessing Analytics to Combat
Crime" public.dhe.ibm.com/common/ssi/ecm/en/imcl 4541
usen/IMC14541USEN.PDF.
How Data Mining Works
Using existing and relevant data, data mining builds models to ide ntify patterns among
the attributes presented in the data set. Models are the mathematical representations
(simple linear relatio nships and/ o r complex highly nonlinear relationships) that identify
the patterns among the attributes of the objects (e.g., customers) described in the data set.
Some of these patterns are explanatory (explaining the interrelatio nships and affinities
among the attributes), w hereas o thers are predictive (foretelling future values of certain
attributes). In general, data mining seeks to identify four major types of patterns:
1. Associations find the commonly co-occurring groupings of things, such as beer and
diapers going together in market-basket analysis .
2. Predictions tell the nature of future occurrences of certain events based on what has
happened in the past, such as predicting the winner of the Super Bowl or forecasting the absolute temperature of a p articular day.
3. Clusters ide ntify natural groupings of things based o n their known characteristics,
such as assigning customers in different segments based on their demographics and
past purchase behaviors.
4. Sequential relationships discover time-ordered events, such as predicting that an
existing banking customer w ho already has a ch ecking account w ill open a savings
account followed by an investment account within a year.
These types of patterns have been manually extracted from data by humans for
centuries, but the increasing volume of data in modern times has created a need for more
automatic approaches. As data sets h ave grown in size and complexity, direct manual
data analysis has increasingly been augmented w ith indirect, automatic data processing
198
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
tools that use sophisticated methodologies, methods, and algorithms. The manifestation
of such evolution of automated and semiautomated means of processing large data sets is
now commonly referred to as data mining.
Generally speaking , data mining tasks can be classified into three main categories: prediction, association, and clustering. Based on the way in which the patterns are
extracted from the historical data, the learning algorithms of data mining methods can
be classified as either supervised or unsupervised. With supervised learning algorithms,
the training data includes both the descriptive attributes (i.e., independent variables or
decision variables) as well as the class attribute (i.e. , output variable or result variable).
In contrast, with unsupervised learning the training data includes only the descriptive
attributes. Figure 5.3 shows a simple taxonomy for data mining tasks, along with the
learning methods, and popular algorithms for each of the data mining tasks.
PREDICTION Prediction is commonly referred to as the act of telling about the future . It
differs from simple guessing by taking into account the experiences, opinions, and other
relevant informatio n in conducting the task of foretelling. A term that is commonly associated with prediction is forecasting. Even though many believe that these two terms are
synonymous, there is a subtle but critical difference between the two. Whereas prediction
is largely experience and opinio n based, forecasting is data and model based. That is, in
order of increasing reliability, one might list the relevant terms as guessing, predicting,
and forecasting, respectively. In data mining terminology, prediction and forecasting are
Learning Method
Data Mining
Supervised
Classification and Regression Trees,
ANN , SVM, Genetic Algorithms
Classification
Supervised
Decision Trees, ANN/MLP, SVM , Rough
Sets, Genetic Algorit hms
Regression
Supervised
Linear/ Nonlinear Regression, Regression
Trees, ANN/MLP, SVM
Unsupervised
Apriori, OneR, ZeroR, Eclat
Link
analysis
Unsupervised
Expectation Maximization Apriori
Algorithm , Graph-Based Matching
Sequence
analysis
Unsupervised
Apriori Algorithm, FP-Growth techn ique
Unsupervised
K-means, ANN/SOM
Unsupervised
K-means, Expectation Maximization (EM)
Prediction
Association
Outlier
analysis
FIGURE 5.3
Popular Algorithms
A Simple Taxonomy for Data Mining Tasks.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 199
used synonymo usly, and the term prediction is used as the common representatio n of the
act. Dep ending o n the nature of w hat is being predicted , predictio n can be named more
specifically as classification (where the p redicted thing , such as to morrow's forecast, is a
class label such as "rainy" o r "sunny") or regression (where the predicted thing, such as
to morrow's tem perature, is a real number, such as "65°F").
Classification, or supervised indu ction , is perhaps the most commo n
of all data mining tasks. The objective of classificatio n is to ana lyze th e h istorical data
stored in a database and automatically generate a model that can predict future behavior.
This induced model consists of generalizatio ns over the records of a training data set,
w hich help distinguish predefined classes. The hope is that the model can then be used
to predict the classes of other unclassifie d records an d, more importantly, to accurately
pre dict actual fu ture events.
Common classification tools inclu de neural networks and decisio n trees (from
machine learning), logistic regression and discriminant analysis (from traditional statistics),
and emerging tools such as rough sets, support vector machines, and genetic algorithms.
Statistics-based classification techniques (e .g., logistic regressio n and discriminant analysis) have received their share of criticism-that they m ake unrealistic assumptio ns about
the data, such as independence and no rmality- w hich limit the ir use in classification-type
data mining projects.
Neural networks (see Chapter 6 for a more detailed coverage of this p opular machine-learning algorithm) involve the development of mathematical structures
(somewhat resembling the biological neural networks in the human brain) that have the
cap ability to learn from past exp erie nces presente d in the form of well-structured data
sets. They tend to be more effective w hen the number of variables involved is rather large
and the relationships among them are complex and imp recise. Neural n etworks have
disadvantages as well as advantages. For examp le, it is usually very difficult to provide
a good ratio nale for the predictio ns made by a neural network. Also, neural networks
tend to need considerable training. Unfortunately, the time needed for training tends to
increase expone ntially as the volume o f data increases, a nd, in general, neural networks
cannot be trained o n ve ry large databases. These and o ther facto rs have limited the applicability of neural networks in data-rich domains.
Decisio n trees classify data into a finite nu mber of classes based o n the values of the
input variables. Decisio n trees are essentially a hierarchy of if-then statements and are thus
significantly faster than neural networks. They are most appropriate for categorical and
interval data. Therefore, incorporating continuous variables into a decisio n tree framework requires discretization, that is, converting continuous valued numerical variables to
ranges and categories.
A related category of classificatio n tools is rule inductio n. Unlike w ith a decisio n
tree, w ith rule induction the if-then statements are indu ced from the training data directly,
and they need not be hie rarchical in natu re. Other, more recent techniques such as SVM,
rough sets, and genetic algorithms are gradually finding their way into the arsenal of
classification algorithms.
CLASSIFICATION
Clustering p art1t1o ns a collection of things (e.g., objects, events, etc.,
presented in a structured data set) into segments (or n atural group ings) whose mem bers
share similar characte ristics. Unlike classificatio n , in clustering the class labels are
unknown . As the selected algorithm goes through the data set, identifying the commonalities of things based on the ir characteristics, the clusters are established. Because the
clusters are dete rmined u sing a heuristic-type algorithm, and because different algorithms
may end up w ith different sets of clusters for the same data set, before the results of
clustering techniques are put to actual use it may be necessary for an expert to inte rpret,
CLUSTERING
200 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
and potentially modify, the suggested clusters. After reasonable clusters have been identified, they can be used to classify and interpret new data.
Not surprisingly, clustering techniques include optimization. The goal of clustering
is to create groups so that the members within each group have maximum similarity and
the members across groups have minimum similarity. The most commonly used clustering techniques include k-means (from statistics) and self-organizing maps (from machine
learning), which is a unique neural network architecture developed by Kohonen (1982).
Firms often effectively use their data mining systems to perform market segmentation with cluster analysis. Cluster analysis is a means of identifying classes of items so that
items in a cluster have more in common with each other than with items in other clusters.
It can be used in segmenting customers and directing appropriate marketing products to
the segments at the right time in the right format at the right price. Cluster analysis is also
used to identify natural groupings of events or objects so that a common set of characteristics of these groups can be identified to describe them.
ASSOCIATIONS Associations, or association rule learning in data mining, is a popular
and well-researched technique for discovering interesting relationships among variables
in large databases. Thanks to automated data-gathering technologies such as bar code
scanners, the use of association rules for discovering regularities among products in
large-scale transactions recorded by point-of-sale systems in supermarkets h as become
a common knowledge-discovery task in the retail industry. In the context of the retail
industry, associatio n rule mining is often called market-basket analysis.
Two commonly used derivatives of association rule mining are link analysis
and sequence mining. With link analysis, the linkage among many objects of interest is discovered automatically, such as the link between Web pages and referential
relationships among groups of academic publication authors. With sequence mining,
relatio nships are examined in terms of their order of occurrence to identify associations
over time. Algorithms used in association rule mining include the popular Apriori (where
frequent itemsets are identified) and FP-Growth, OneR, ZeroR, and Eclat.
VISUALIZATION AND TIME-SERIES FORECASTING Two techniques often associated with
data mining are visualization and time-seriesforecasting. Visualization can be used in conjunction w ith other data mining techniques to gain a clearer understanding of underlying
relationships. As the importance to visualization has increased in recent years, a new
term, visual analytics, has emerged. The idea is to combine analytics and visualization in
a single e nvironme nt for easier and faster knowledge creation. Visual analytics is covered
in detail in Chapter 4. In time-series forecasting, the data consists of values of the same
variable that is captured and stored over time in regular intervals. These data are then
used to develop forecasting models to extrapolate the future values of the same variable.
Data Mining Versus Statistics
Data mining and statistics have a lot in common. They both look for relationships within
data. Most call statistics the foundation of data mining. The main difference between
the two is that statistics starts w ith a well-defined proposition and hypothesis w hile data
mining starts with a loosely defined discovery statement. Statistics collects a sample data
(i.e., primary data) to test the hypothesis, while data mining and analytics use all of the
existing data (i.e., often observational, secondary data) to discover novel patterns and
relationships. Another difference comes from the size of data that they use. Data mining
looks for data sets that are as "big" as possible w hile statistics looks for right size of data
(if the data is larger than w hat is needed/ required for the statistical analysis, a sample of
the data is used). The meaning of "large data" is rather different between statistics and
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
data mining: Although a few hundred to a thousand data points are large enough to a
statistician, several million to a few billion data points are considered large for data mining studies.
SECTION 5.2 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Define data mining. Why are there many different names and definitions for
data mining?
2. What recent factors have increased the popularity of data mining'
3. Is data mining a new discipline? Explain.
4. What are some major data mining methods and algorithms?
5. What are the key differences between the major data mining methods?
5.3
DATA MINING APPLICATIONS
Data mining has become a popular tool in addressing many complex businesses problems and opportunities. It has been proven to be very successful and helpful in many
areas, some of which are shown by the following representative examples. The goal of
many of these business data mining applications is to solve a pressing problem or to
explore an emerging business opportunity in order to create a sustainable competitive
advantage.
• Customer relationship management. Customer relationship management
(CRM) is the extension of traditional marketing. The goal of CRM is to create
one-on-one relationships with customers by developing an intimate understanding of their needs and wants. As businesses build relationships with their
customers over time through a variety of interactions (e.g. , product inquiries, sales,
service requests, warranty calls, product reviews, social media connections), they
accumulate tremendous amounts of data. When combined with demographic and
socioeconomic attributes, this information-rich data can be used to (1) identify
most likely responders/ buyers of new products/ services (i.e. , customer profiling);
(2) understand the root causes of customer attrition in order to improve customer
retention (i.e., churn analysis); (3) discover time-variant associations between
products and services to maximize sales and customer value; and ( 4) identify the
most profitable customers and their preferential needs to strengthen relationships
and to maximize sales.
• Banking. Data mining can help banks with the following: (1) automating the
loan application process by accurately predicting the most probable defaulters;
(2) detecting fraudulent credit card and online-banking transactions; (3) identifying
ways to maximize customer value by selling them products and services that they
are most likely to buy; and C4) optimizing the cash return by accurately forecasting
the cash flow on banking entities (e.g., ATM machines, banking branches).
• Retailing and logistics. In the retailing industiy, data mining can be used to
(1) predict accurate sales volumes at specific retail locations in order to determine
correct inventory levels; (2) identify sales relationships between different products
(with market-basket analysis) to improve the store layout and optimize sales promotions; (3) forecast consumption levels of different product types (based on
seasonal and environmental conditions) to optimize logistics and hence maximize
sales; and C4) discover interesting p atterns in the movement of products (especially
for the products that have a limited shelf life because they are prone to expiration,
perishability, and contamination) in a supply chain by analyzing sensory and
RFID data .
201
202 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
• Manufacturing and production. Manufacturers can use data mmmg to
(1) predict machinery failures before they occur through the u se of senso1y data
(enabling what is called condition-based m aintena nce); (2) identify anomalies
and commo nalities in production systems to optimize manufacturing capacity; and
(3) discover novel patterns to identify and improve product quality.
• Brokerage and securities trading. Brokers and traders use data mining to
(1) pre dict w hen and how m uch certain bond prices will change; (2) forecast the
range and d irection of stock fluctuatio ns; (3) assess the e ffect of p articular issues
and events on overall market moveme nts; and ( 4) identify and prevent fraudulent
activities in securities trading .
• Insurance. The insurance industry uses data mining techniques to (1) forecast
claim amounts for property and medical coverage costs for better business planning; (2) de te rmine optimal rate plans based o n the analysis of claims and customer
data; (3) predict w hich custo mers are more likely to buy new policies w ith special
features; and ( 4) identify and prevent incorrect claim payments and fraudulent
activities.
• Computer hardware and software. Data mining can be used to (1) predict disk
drive failures well before they actually occur; (2) identify and filter unwanted Web
content and e-mail messages; (3) detect and prevent compute r network security
bridges; and ( 4) identify potentially unsecure software p rod ucts.
• Government and defense. Data mining also has a number of military applicatio ns. It can be used to (1) forecast the cost of moving military personnel and
equipment; (2) predict an adversary's moves and he nce develop more successful
strategies for military engagements; (3) predict resource consumption for better
planning and budgeting; and ( 4) identify classes of unique experiences, strategies,
and lessons learned from military ope rations for better knowledge sharing throughout the organization .
• Travel industry (airlines, hotels/resorts, rental car companies). Data mining
has a variety of uses in the travel industry. It is successfully used to (1) p redict sales
of d ifferent services (seat types in airp lanes, room typ es in hotels/reso1ts, car types
in rental car companies) in order to optimally price services to maximize revenues
as a function of time-va1y ing transactions (commo nly referred to as yield management); (2) fo recast demand at differe nt locatio ns to better allocate limited organizational resources; (3) identify the most profitable customers and provide them
with personalized services to maintain the ir rep eat business; and ( 4) retain valuable
employees by identifying and acting on the root causes for attrition .
• Healthcare. Data mining h as a number of healthcare applications. It can be u sed
to (1) identify p eop le w itho ut health insurance and the factors underlying this
undesired pheno me non ; (2) ide ntify novel cost-benefit relatio nships betwee n
different treatments to develop mo re effective strategies; (3) forecast the level
and the time of de mand at d iffe rent service locations to optimally a llocate o rganizational resources; and ( 4) understand the underlying reasons for customer and
employee attritio n.
• Medicine. Use of data mining in medicine shou ld be viewed as an invaluable
complement to traditional medical research , which is mainly clinical and biological
in nature. Da ta mining analyses can (1) identify novel patterns to imp rove survivability of p atients w ith cancer; (2) predict success rates of organ transplantatio n
patients to develop better do nor-o rgan matching p olicies; (3) identify the functio ns
of diffe rent genes in the human chromosome (known as genomics); and ( 4) discover the relatio nships between symptoms and illnesses (as well as illnesses and
successful treatments) to he lp medical p rofessionals make informed and correct
decisio ns in a timely ma nne r.
Chap ter 5 • Data Min ing
203
• Entertainment industry. Data mining is successfully used by the entertainment
industry to (1) analyze viewer data to decide wh at p rograms to show d uring p rime
time and how to maximize returns by knowing w here to insert advertisements;
(2) pre dict the financial success of movies before they are p roduced to make
investment decisio ns and to optimize the returns; (3) forecast the demand at
different locatio ns and different times to better schedule entertainment events and to
o ptimally allocate resources; and C4) develop optimal p ricing policies to maximize
revenues.
• Homeland security and law enforcement. Data mining h as a number of
h o meland security an d law e nforcement applications. Data mining is often
u sed to (1) identify p atterns of terrorist behavio rs (see Ap p lication Case 5.3 for
an example of the use of data mining to track funding of terrorists' activities);
(2) d iscover crime patte rns (e.g. , locatio ns , timings, crim inal beh aviors, and other
related attribu tes) to h elp solve criminal cases in a timely manner; (3) p redict
an d eliminate p o te ntial bio logical and ch e mical attacks to the nation 's critical
infrastructure by a nalyzing special-purpose sensory data; and (4) ide ntify an d
stop maliciou s attacks on critical information infrastructures (often called inform ation warfare).
• Sports. Data mining was used to improve the performance of Natio na l Basketball
Associatio n (NBA) teams in the Unite d States. Majo r League Baseball teams are
into p redictive an alytics and data mining to optim ally utilize their limited resources
for a w inning season (see Moneyball article in Chapter 1). In fact, most, if not all,
of the professio nal sp o rts emp loy data crunchers and u se data mining to increase
the ir chan ces of w inning. Data mining applicatio ns are not limited to professional
sp orts. In recently publishe d article, Delen et al. (2012) develope d mode ls to pred ict NCAA Bowl Game outcomes u sing a w ide range of variables about the two
o pposing teams' p revio us game statistics. Wright (2012) used a variety of p redictors for examinatio n of the NCAA me n 's baske tball champio nship bracket (a.k.a.
March Madness).
Application Case 5.3
A Mine on Terrorist Funding
The terrorist attack o n the World Trade Center o n
Sep tembe r 11, 2001, unde rlined the importan ce of
ope n source intelligence. The USA PATRIOT Act and
the creation of the U.S. Departme nt of Homeland
Security (DHS) heralded the potential app licatio n of
informatio n technology and data mining techniques
to de tect money laundering and o ther forms of terrorist financing. Law enforcement agencies have
been focusing o n mo ney laundering activities via
normal transactio ns through banks and other financial service organizatio ns.
Law e nforcement agencies are now focusing
on internatio nal trade pricing as a terrorism funding
tool. Inte rnational trade has been used by mo ney
launderers to move money silently out of a country
without attracting government attention . This transfer is achieved by overvaluing imports and undervaluing exp01ts. For example, a domestic imp orter
and foreign exporter could form a partnership and
overvalue imports, thereby transferring money from
the ho me cou ntry, resulting in crimes related to customs fraud, income tax evasio n , and money laundering. The foreign exporter could be a member of
a terrorist organizatio n .
Data mining techniques focus on analysis of
data on import and export transactions from the U.S.
Department of Commerce and commerce-related
e ntities. Import prices that exceed the upp er quartile import prices and export prices that are lower
than the lower quartile export prices are tracked.
(Continued)
204
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.3
(Continued}
The focus is on abnormal transfer prices between
corporations that may result in shifting taxable
income and taxes out of the Unite d States. An
o bserved price deviation may be related to income
tax avoidance/evasio n , money laundering, o r terro rist financing. The observed price deviation may also
be due to an erro r in the U.S. trade data base.
Data mining will result in efficie nt evaluation of data, w hich, in turn, will aid in the fight
against terro rism . The application of informatio n
technology and data mining techniques to financial
transactions can contribute to better intelligence
information .
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How can data mining be used to fight terrorism?
Comment on what else can be do ne beyond
w hat is covered in this short applicatio n case.
2. Do you think that, although data mining is essential for fighting terrorist cells, it also jeopardizes
individuals' rights to privacy?
Sources: ]. S. Zdanowic, "Detecting Mo ney Launde ring and
Terrorist Financing via Data Mining ," Communications of the
ACM, Vol. 47, No. 5, May 2004, p . 53; and R. J. Bolto n, "Statistical
Fraud Detection : A Review," Statistical Science, Vol. 17, o . 3,
Ja nuary 2002, p . 235.
SECTION 5.3 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the major application areas for data mining?
2. Identify at least five sp ecific applicatio ns of data mining and list five commo n characteristics of these applications.
3. What do you think is the most prominent application area for data mining? Why?
4. Can you think of o ther application areas for data mining not discu ssed in this sectio n?
Expla in.
5.4
DATA MINING PROCESS
In order to system atically carry out data mmmg projects, a ge neral process is u su ally
follow ed. Based on best practices, data mining researchers and practitio ners have prop osed several processes (workflows o r simple step-by-step approaches) to maximize the
chances of success in conducting d ata mining p rojects. These efforts have led to several
standardized processes, some of w hich (a few of the most popular o nes) are described
in this sectio n .
One such standardized process, arguably the most p opular o ne, Cross-Industry
Standard Process for Data Mining-CRISP-OM-was proposed in the mid-1990s by a
European consortium of companies to serve as a no nproprietary standard methodology
for data mining (CRISP-DM, 2013). Figure 5.4 illustrates this proposed process , which is
a sequence of six ste ps that starts with a good understanding of the business and the
need for the data mining project (i .e., the applicatio n domain) and ends w ith the d eployment of the solution that satisfied the specific business need. Even though these steps
are seque ntial in nature, there is u sually a great deal of backtracking. Because the data
mining is driven by experience and exp erimentatio n , depending on the problem situation
and the knowledge/ experience of the analyst, the whole process can be very ite rative
(i.e., o ne sho uld exp ect to go back and forth through the step s quite a few times) and
time-consuming. Because later steps are built o n the outcome of the former ones, one
should p ay extra attention to the e arlie r step s in order not to put the whole study on an
incorrect p ath fro m the o nset.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
1
2
Business
1---~1
Data
Understanding ~ - - - - - - Understanding
~ - - - - ~ " " " (-
___ _
Data
Preparation
6
Deployment
Data
Sources
•
4
Model
Building
Testing and
Evaluation
FIGURE 5.4
The Six-Step CRISP-OM Data Mining Process.
Step 1: Business Underst anding
The key element of any data mining study is to know what the study is for. Answering
such a question begins with a thorough understanding of the managerial need for new
knowledge and an explicit specification of the business objective regarding the study
to be conducted. Specific goals such as "What are the common characteristics of the
customers we have lost to our competitors recently?" or "What are typical profiles of our
customers, and how much value does each of them provide to us?" are needed. Then a
project plan for finding such knowledge is developed that specifies the people responsible for collecting the data, analyzing the data, and reporting the findings. At this early
stage, a budget to support the study should also be established, at least at a high level
with rough numbers.
Step 2: Data Understanding
A data mining study is specific to addressing a well-defined business task, and different business tasks require different sets of data. Following the business understanding,
the main activity of the data mining process is to identify the relevant data from many
available databases. Some key points must be considered in the data identification and
selection phase. First and foremost, the analyst should be clear and concise about the
description of the data mining task so that the most relevant data can be identified .
For example, a retail data mining project may seek to identify spending behaviors of
female shoppers who purchase seasonal clothes based on their demographics, credit
card transactions, and socioeconomic attributes. Furthermore, the analyst should build
205
206
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
an intimate understanding of the data sources (e.g ., where the relevant data are stored
and in what form; what the process of collecting the data is-automated versus manual;
who the collectors of the data are and how often the data are updated) and the variables
(e.g., What are the most relevant variables? Are there any synonymous and/ or homonymous variables? Are the variables independent of each other- do they stand as a
complete information source without overlapping or conflicting information?).
In o rder to better understand the data, the analyst often uses a variety of statistical
and graphical techniques, such as simple statistical summaries of each variable (e.g., for
numeric variables the average, minimum/ maximum, median, and standard deviation are
among the calculated measures, whereas for categorical variables the mode and frequency
tables are calculated), correlation analysis, scatter plots, histograms, and box plots. A careful identification and selection of data sources and the most relevant variables can make it
easier for data mining algorithms to quickly discover useful knowledge patterns.
Data sources for data selection can vary. Normally, data sources for business
applicatio ns include demographic data (such as income, education, number of households, and age), sociographic data (such as hobby, club membership, and entertainment),
transactional data (sales record, credit card spending, issued checks), and so on.
Data can be categorized as quantitative and qualitative. Quantitative data is
measured using numeric values. It can be discrete (such as integers) or continuous (such
as real numbers). Qualitative data, also known as categorical data, contains both nominal
and ordinal data. Nominal data has finite nonordered values (e.g., gender data, which
has two values: male and female) . Ordinal data has finite ordered values. For example,
customer credit ratings are considered o rdinal data because the ratings can be excellent,
fair, and bad.
Quantitative data can be readily represented by some sort of probability distribution. A probability distribution describes how the data is dispersed and shaped. For
instance, normally distributed data is symmetric and is commonly referred to as being
a bell-shaped curve. Qualitative data may be coded to numbers and then described by
frequency distributions. Once the relevant data are selected according to the data mining
business objective, data preprocessing should be pursued.
Step 3: Data Preparation
The purpose of data preparation (or more commonly called data preprocessing) is to
take the data identified in the previous step and prepare it for analysis by data mining
methods. Compared to the other steps in CRISP-DM, data preprocessing consumes the
most time and effort; most believe that this step accounts for roughly 80 percent of the
total time spent on a data mining project. The reason for such an enormous effort spent
o n this step is the fact that real-world data is generally incomplete (lacking attribute
values, lacking certain attributes of interest, or containing o nly aggregate data), noisy
(conta ining errors or outliers), and inconsistent (containing discrepancies in codes or
names). Figure 5.5 shows the four main steps needed to convert the raw real-world data
into minable data sets.
In the first phase of data preprocessing, the relevant data is collected from the identified
sources (accomplished in the previous step-Data Understanding-of the CRISP-DM process), the necessa1y records and variables are selected (based o n an intimate understanding
of the data, the unnecessary sections are filtered out), and the records coming from multiple data sources are integrated (again, using the intimate understanding of the data, the
syno nyms and homonyms are to be handled properly).
In the second phase of data preprocessing, the data is cleaned (this step is also
known as data scrubbing). In this step, the values in the data set are identified and dealt
w ith. In some cases, missing values are an anomaly in the data set, in which case they
Chapter 5 • Data Min ing
•
-c
Data Consolidation
~--~---~
Collect data
• Select data
• Integrate data
Data Cleaning
_r • Reduce noise in data
• Impute missing values
..____________,-~
• Eliminate inconsistencies
Data Transformation
~--~---~
• Normalize data
• Discretize/aggregate data
• Construct new attributes
• Reduce number of variables
Data Reduction
_r • Reduce number of cases
..____________,-~
• Balance skewed data
Well-Formed
Data
FIGURE 5.5
Data Preprocessing Steps.
need to be imputed (filled w ith a most probable value) or ignored; in other cases, the
missing values are a natural part o f the data set (e.g., the household income field is often
left unanswered by people w ho are in the top income tier) . In this step, the analyst
should also identify noisy values in the data (i.e., the outliers) and smooth them out.
Additio nally, inconsiste ncies (unusual values within a variable) in the data should be
handled using domain knowledge and/or exp ert o pinio n.
In the third phase of data p rep rocessing, the data is transformed for bette r processing. For instance, in many cases the data is no rmalized between a certain minimum and
maximum for all variables in order to mitigate the pote ntial bias of one variable (having
large numeric values, such as for ho usehold income) dominating other variables (such as
number of dependents o r years in service, w hich may po tentially be mo re important)
having smaller values. Another transformatio n that takes place is discretizatio n and/ or
aggregatio n. In some cases, the numeric variables are converted to categorical values
(e .g., low, medium, high); in other cases a nominal variable 's unique value range is
reduced to a smaller set using concep t hierarchies (e.g., as opposed to using the individual
states w ith 50 diffe re nt values, one may choose to use several regions for a variable that
shows location) in o rder to have a data set that is mo re amenable to computer processing. Still, in other cases o ne might choose to create n ew variables based on the existing
ones in order to magnify the informa tio n found in a collectio n of variables in the data
set. For instance, in an o rgan transpla ntation data set one might choose to use a single
variable showing the blood-type match (1 : match , 0: no-match) as opposed to separate
multino minal values for the blood type of both the donor and the recipient. Such simplificatio n may increase the information content w hile reducing the complexity of the
relatio nships in the data .
207
208 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
The final phase of data preprocessing is data reduction. Even though data miners
like to have large data sets, too much data is also a problem. In the simplest sense, one
can visualize the data commonly used in data mining projects as a flat file consisting of
two dimensions: variables (the number of columns) and cases/ records (the number of
rows). In some cases (e.g., image processing and genome projects with complex microarray data), the number of variables can be rather large, and the analyst must reduce the
number to a manageable size. Because the variables are treated as different dimensions
that describe the phenomenon from different perspectives, in data mining this process
is commonly called dimensional reduction. Even though there is not a single best way
to accomplish this task, o ne can use the findings from previously published literature;
consult domain experts; run appropriate statistical tests (e.g. , principal component analysis or independent component analysis); and, more preferably, use a combination of
these techniques to successfully reduce the dimensions in the data into a more manageable and most relevant subset.
With respect to the other dimension (i.e., the number of cases), some data sets
may include millions or billions of records. Even though computing power is increasing exponentially , processing such a large number of records may not be practical or feasible . In such cases, one may need to sample a subset of the data for
analysis. The underlying assumption of sampling is that the subset of the data will
conta in all relevant patterns of the complete data set. In a homogenous data set, such
an assumption may hold well, but real-world data is hardly ever homogenous. The
analyst should be extremely careful in selecting a su bset of the data that reflects the
essence of the complete data set and is not specific to a subgroup or subcategory.
The data is usually sorted on some variable , and taking a section of the data from
the top or bottom may lead to a biased data set on specific values of the indexed
variable; therefore, one should always try to randomly select the records on the sample set. For skewed data, straightforward random sampling may not be sufficient, and
stratified sampling (a proportional representation of different subgroups in the data
is represented in the sample data set) may be require d. Speaking of skewed data: It
is a good practice to balance the highly skewed data by either oversampling the less
represented or undersampling the more represented classes. Research has shown that
balanced data sets tend to produce bette r prediction models than unbalanced ones
(Wilson and Sharda, 1994).
The essence of data preprocessing is summarized in Table 5.1, which maps the
main phases (along with their problem descriptions) to a representative list of tasks and
algorithms.
Step 4: Model Building
In this step, various modeling techniques are selected and applied to an already prepared data set in order to address the specific business need. The model-building step
also encompasses the assessment and comparative analysis of the various models built.
Because there is no universally known best method or algorithm for a data mining task,
o ne should use a variety of viable model types along with a well-defined experimentation and assessment strategy to identify the "best" method for a given purpose. Even for
a single method or algorithm, a numbe r of parameters need to be calibrated to obtain
optimal results. Some methods may have specific requirements on the way that the data
is to be formatted; thus, stepping back to the data preparation step is often necessary.
Application Case 5.4 presents a research study where a number of model types are developed and compared to each other.
Depending o n the business need, the data mining task can be of a p rediction
(either classification or regression) , an association, or a clustering type. Each of these
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 209
TABLE 5.1
A Summary of Data Preprocessing Tasks and Potential Methods
Main Task
Subtasks
Popular Methods
Data consolidation
Access and collect the data
SQL queries, software agents, Web services.
Select and filter the data
Domain expertise, SQL queries, statistical tests.
Integrate and unify the data
SQL queries, domain expertise, ontology-driven
data mapping.
Handle missing values in the data
Fill-in missing values (imputations) with most appropriate
values (mean, median, min/max, mode, etc.); recode the
missing values with a constant such as "ML"; remove
the record of the missing value; do nothing.
Identify and reduce noise in the data
Identify the outliers in data with simple statistical
techniques (such as averages and standard deviations) or
with cluster analysis; once identified either remove the
outliers or smooth them by using binning, regression, or
simple averages.
Find and eliminate erroneous data
Identify the erroneous values in data (other than outliers),
such as odd values, inconsistent class labels, odd
distributions; once identified, use domain expertise to
correct the values or remove the records holding the
erroneous values.
Normalize the data
Reduce the range of values in each numerical ly valued
variable to a standard range (e.g., 0 to 1 or -1 to + 1)
by using a variety of normalization or scaling techniques.
Discretize or aggregate the data
If needed, convert the numeric variables into discrete
representations using range or frequency-based binning
techniques; for cat egorical variables reduce the number
of values by applying proper concept hierarchies.
Construct new attributes
Derive new and more informative variables from the existing ones using a wide range of mathematical functions
(as simple as addition and multipl ication or as complex
as a hybrid combination of log transformations).
Reduce number of attributes
Principal component analysis, independent component
analysis, Chi-square testing, correlation analysis, and
decision tree induction.
Reduce number of records
Random sampling, stratified sampling, expertknowledge-driven purposeful sampling.
Balance skewed data
Oversample the less represented or undersample the more
represented classes.
Data cleaning
Data transformat ion
Data reduction
data mining tasks can use a variety of data mining methods and algorithms. Some
of these data mining methods were explained earlier in this chapter, and some of
the most popular algorithms, including decision trees for classification, k-means for
clustering, and the Apriori algorithm for association rule mining, are described later
in this chapter.
210
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.4
Data Mining in Cancer Research
According to the American Cancer Society, half of all
men and one-third of all women in the United States
will develop cancer during their lifetimes; approximately 1.5 million new cancer cases will be diagnosed in 2013. Cancer is the second most common
cause of death in the United States and in the world,
exceeded only by cardiovascular disease. This year,
over 500,000 Americans are expected to die of
cancer-more than 1,300 people a day-accounting
for nearly 1 of every 4 deaths.
Cancer is a group of diseases generally characterized by uncontrolled growth and spread of
abnormal cells. If the growth and/or spread is not
controlled, it can result in death. Even though the
exact reasons are not known, cancer is believed to
be caused by both external factors (e.g., tobacco,
infectious organisms, chemicals, and radiation)
and internal factors (e.g., inherited mutations,
hormones, immune conditions, and mutations that
occur from metabolism). These causal factors may
act together or in sequence to initiate or promote
carcinogenesis. Cancer is treated with surgery,
radiation, chemotherapy,
hormone therapy,
biological therapy, and targeted therapy. Survival
statistics vary greatly by cancer type and stage at
diagnosis.
The 5-year relative survival rate for all cancers is improving, and decline in cancer m01tality
has reached 20 percent in 2013, translating to the
avoidance of about 1.2 million deaths from cancer
since 1991. That's more than 400 lives saved per
day! The improvement in survival reflects progress
in diagnosing certain cancers at an earlier stage and
improvements in treatment. Further improvements
are needed to prevent and treat cancer.
Even though cancer research has traditionally been clinical and biological in nature, in recent
years data-driven analytic studies have become a
common complement. In medical domains where
data- and analytics-driven research have been
applied successfully, novel research directions have
been identified to further advance the clinical and
biological studies. Using various types of data,
including molecular, clinical, literature-based, and
clinical-trial data, along with suitable data mining
tools and techniques, researchers have been able to
identify novel patterns, paving the road toward a
cancer-free society.
In one study, Delen (2009) used three popular data mining techniques (decision trees, artificial
neural networks, and support vector machines)
in conjunction with logistic regression to deve lop
prediction models for prostate cancer survivability.
The data set contained around 120,000 records and
77 variables. A k-fold cross-validation methodology was used in model building, evaluation, and
comparison. The results showed that support vector models are the most accurate predictor (with a
test set accuracy of 92.85%) for this domain, followed by artificial neural networks and decision
trees. Furthermore, using a sensitivity-analysisbased evaluation method, the study also revealed
novel patterns related to prognostic factors of
prostate cancer.
In a related study, Delen et al. (2004) used two
data mining algorithms (artificial neural networks
and decision trees) and logistic regression to
develop prediction models for breast cancer survival
using a large data set (more than 200,000 cases).
Using a JO-fold cross-validation method to measure the unbiased estimate of the prediction models
for performance comparison purposes, the results
indicated that the decision tree (CS algorithm) was
the best predictor, with 93.6 percent accuracy on
the holdout sample (which was the best prediction accuracy reported in the literature); followed
by artificial neural networks, with 91.2 percent
accuracy; and logistic regression, with 89.2 percent
accuracy. Further analysis of prediction models
revealed prioritized importance of the prognostic
factors, which can then be used as basis for further
clinical and biological research studies.
These examples (among many others in
the medical literature) show that advanced d ata
mining techniques can be used to develop models
that possess a high degree of predictive as well
as explanatory power. Although data mining methods
are capable of extracting patterns and relationships
hidden deep in large and complex medical databases, without the cooperation and feedback from
the medical experts their results are not of much use.
The patterns found via data mining methods should
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
be evaluated by medical professionals who have
years of experience in the problem domain to decide
whether they are logical, actionable, and novel to
warrant new research directions. In short, data mining is not meant to replace medical professionals
and researchers, but to complement their invaluable
efforts to provide data-driven new research directions
and to ultimately save more human lives.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How can data mining be used for ultimately cur-
ing illnesses like cancer?
211
2. What do you think are the promises and major
challenges for data miners in contributing to
medical and biological research endeavors?
Sources: D. Delen, "Analysis o f Cancer Data: A Data Mining
Approach," E:xpe1·t Systems, Vol. 26, No. 1, 2009, pp. 100-112;
J. Tho ngkam , G. Xu, Y. Zhang, a nd F. Huang, "Toward Breast
Cancer Survivability Prediction Models Through Im proving
Training Space," Expert Systems with Applications, Vol. 36, No.
10, 2009, pp. 12200-12209; D. Delen , G. Walker, and A. Kadam ,
"Predicting Breast Cancer Survivability: A Comparison of Three
Data Mining Methods," Artificial Intelligence in Medicine, Vol. 34,
No. 2, 2005, pp. 113-127.
Step 5: Testing and Evaluation
In step 5, the developed models are assessed and evaluated for their accuracy and
generality. This step assesses the degree to which the selected model (or models)
meets the business objectives and, if so, to what extent (i.e., do more models need
to be developed and assessed) . Another option is to test the developed mode l(s) in a
real-world scenario if time and budget constraints permit. Even though the o utco me
of the developed models is expected to relate to the original business objectives,
other findings that are not necessarily related to the original business objectives but
that might also unveil additional information or hints for future directions often are
discovered.
The testing and evaluation step is a critical and challe nging task. No value is added
by the data mining task until the business value obtained from discovered knowledge
patterns is identified and recognized. Determining the business value from discovered
knowledge patterns is somewhat similar to playing with puzzles. The extracted
knowledge patterns are pieces of the puzzle that need to be put together in the context
of the specific business purpose. The success of this identification operation depends
on the interaction among data analysts, business analysts, and decision makers (such as
business managers). Because data analysts may not have the full understanding of the
data mining objectives and what they mean to the business and the business analysts
and decision makers may not have the technical knowledge to interpret the results of
sophisticated mathematical solutions, interaction among them is necessary. In order to
properly interpret knowledge patterns, it is often necessary to use a variety of tabulation
and visualization techniques (e.g. , pivot tables, cross-tabulation of findings, pie charts,
histograms, box plots, scatter plots).
Step 6: Deployment
Development and assessment of the models is not the end of the data mining project.
Even if the purpose of the model is to have a simple exploration of the data, the knowledge gained from such exploration w ill need to be organized and presented in a way
that the end user can understand and benefit from. Depending on the requirements,
the deployment phase can be as simple as generating a report or as complex as implementing a repeatable data mining process across the enterprise. In many cases, it is the
customer, not the data analyst, who carries out the deployment steps. However, even if
212 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
the analyst w ill not carry out the deployment effort, it is important for the customer to
understand up front what actions need to be carried out in order to actually make use of
the created models.
The deployment step may a lso include maintenance activities for the deployed
models. Because everything about the business is constantly changing, the data that reflect
the business activities also are changing. Over time, the models (and the patterns embedded within them) built on the old data may become obsolete, irrelevant, or misleading.
Therefore, mo nitoring and maintenance of the models are important if the data mining
results are to become a part of the day-to-day business and its environment. A careful preparation of a maintenance strategy helps to avoid unnecessarily long periods of
incorrect usage of data mining results. In order to monitor the deployment of the data
mining result(s), the project needs a detailed plan on the monitoring process, w hich may
not be a trivial task for complex data mining models.
Other Data Mining Standardized Processes and Methodologies
In order to be applied successfully, a data mining study must be viewed as a process
that follows a standardized methodology rather than as a set of automated software tools
and techniques. In addition to CRISP-DM, there is another well-known methodology
developed by the SAS Institute, called SEMMA (2009). The acronym SEMMA stands for
"sample, explo re, modify, model, and assess."
Beginning with a statistically representative sample of the data, SEMMA makes
it easy to apply exploratory statistical and visualization techniques, select and transform the most significant predictive variables, model the variables to predict outcomes,
and confirm a model's accuracy. A pictorial representation of SEMMA is given in
Figure 5.6.
By assessing the outcome of each stage in the SEMMA process, the model
developer can determine how to model new questions raised by the previous results,
and thus proceed back to the exploration phase for additional refinement of the data;
that is, as with CRISP-DM, SEMMA is driven by a highly iterative experimentation cycle.
Sample
[Generate a representative
sample of the data)
Assess
Explore
(Evaluate the accuracy and
usefulness of the models)
(Visualization and basic
description of the data]
FIGURE 5.6
Model
Modify
[Use variety of statistical and
machine learning models)
[Select variables, transform
variable representations)
SEMMA Data Mining Process.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 213
The main difference between CRISP-DM and SEMMA is that CRISP-DM takes a more
comprehensive approach-including understanding of the business and the relevant
data-to data mining projects, whereas SEMMA implicitly assumes that the data mining
project's goals and objectives along with the appropriate data sources have been identified and understood.
Some practitioners commonly use the term knowledge discovery in databases
(KDD) as a synonym for data mining. Fayyad et al. 0996) defined knowledge discovery
in databases as a process of using data mining methods to find useful information and
patterns in the data, as opposed to data mining, which involves using algorithms to
identify patterns in data derived through the KDD process. KDD is a comprehensive
process that encompasses data mining. The input to the KDD process consists of organizational data. The enterprise data warehouse enables KDD to be implemented efficiently
because it provides a single source for data to be mined. Dunham (2003) summarized
the KDD process as consisting of the following steps: data selection, data preprocessing, data transformation, data mining, and interpretation/ evaluation. Figure 5.7 shows the
polling results for the question "What main methodology are you using for data mining?"
(conducted by kdnuggets.com in August 2007).
SECTION 5.4 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the major data mining processes?
2. Why do you think the early phases (understanding of the business and understand-
ing of the data) take the longest in data mining projects?
3. List and briefly define the phases in the CRISP-DM process.
4. What are the main data preprocessing steps? Briefly describe each step and provide
relevant examples.
5. How does CRISP-DM differ from SEMMA?
CRISP-OM
My own
SEMMA
KOO Process
My organization's
None
Domain-specific
methodology
Other methodology
[not domain specific)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
FIGURE 5.7 Ranking of Data Mining Methodologies/Processes. Source: Used with permission
from kdnuggets.com.
70
214
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
5.5
DATA MINING METHODS
A variety of methods are available for performing data mining studies, including classification, regression, clustering, and association . Most data mining software tools employ
more than one technique (or algorithm) for each of these methods. This section describes
the most popular data mining methods and explains their representative techniques.
Classification
Classification is perhaps the most frequently used data mining method for real-world problems. As a popular member of the machine-learning family of techniques, classification
learns patterns from past data (a set of information-traits, variables, features----on characteristics of the previously labeled items, objects, o r events) in order to place new instances
(with unknown labels) into their respective groups or classes. For example, one could use
classification to predict whether the weather on a particular day will be "sunny," "rainy,"
or "cloudy." Popular classification tasks include credit approval (i.e., good or bad credit
risk), store location (e.g., good, moderate, bad), target marketing (e.g. , likely customer, no
hope), fraud detection (i.e., yes, no), and telecommunication (e.g., likely to turn to another
phone company, yes/no). If what is being predicted is a class label (e.g., "sunny," "rainy," or
"cloudy"), the prediction problem is called a classification, whereas if it is a numeric value
(e.g., temperature such as 68°F), the prediction problem is called a regression.
Even though clustering (another popular data mining method) can also be used
to determine groups (or class memberships) of things, there is a significant difference
between the two. Classification learns the function between the characteristics of things
(i.e., independent variables) and their membership (i.e., output variable) through a supervised learning process where both types (input and output) of variables are presented to
the algorithm; in clustering, the membership of the objects is learned through an unsupervised learning process where only the input variables are presented to the algorithm.
Unlike classification, clustering does not have a supervising (or controlling) mechanism
that enforces the learning process; instead, clustering algorithms use one or more heuristics
(e.g., multidimensional distance measure) to discover natural groupings of objects.
The most common two-step methodology of classification-type prediction involves
model development/ training and model testing/deployment. In the model development
phase, a collection of input data, includ ing the actual class labels, is u sed. After a model
has been trained, the model is tested against the holdout sample for accuracy assessment
a nd eventually deployed for actual use where it is to predict classes of new data instances
(where the class label is unknown). Several factors are considered in assessing the model,
including the following:
• Predictive accuracy. The model's ability to correctly predict the class label o f new
or previously unseen data. Prediction accuracy is the most commonly used assessment factor for classification models. To compute this measure, actual class labels
of a test data set are matched against the class labels predicted by the model. The
accuracy can then be computed as the accuracy rate, which is the percentage of
test data set samples correctly classified by the model (more on this topic is provided later in the chapter).
• Speed. The computational costs involved in generating and using the model, w here
faster is deemed to be better.
• Robustness. The model's ability to make reasonably accurate predictions, given
noisy data or data w ith missing and erroneous values.
• Scalability. The ability to construct a prediction model efficiently given a rather
large amount of data.
• Interpretability. The level of understanding and insight provided by the model
(e.g., how and/or what the model concludes on certain predictions).
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 215
True Class
QJ
>
·.:;
(/)
(/)
cu
u
'ui
a
0...
Positive
Negative
True
Positive
Count (TPJ
False
Positive
Count (FPJ
False
Negative
Count (FNJ
True
Negative
Count (TN)
"O
2l
u
'6
QJ
c...
0...
QJ
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·.:;
cu
OJ
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FIGURE 5.8
A Simple Confusion Matrix for Tabulation of Two-Class Classification Results.
Estimating the True Accuracy of Classification Models
In classification problems, the primary source for accuracy estimatio n is the confusion
matrix (also called a classification matrix or a contingency table). Figure 5.8 shows a
confusion matrix for a two-class classification problem. The numbers along the diagonal
fro m the upper left to the lower right represent correct decisions, and the numbers outside this diagonal re present the e rro rs.
Table 5.2 provides equations for common accuracy metrics for classification models.
When the classification problem is not binary, the confusion matrix gets bigger
(a square matrix with the size of the unique number of class labels), and accuracy metrics
become limited to per class accuracy rates and the overall classifier accuracy.
(Trne Classification Rate)i =
(Trne Classifi,cation)i
n
~ (False Classifi,cation)i
i= l
n
~ (Trne Classifi,cation)i
i= I
(Overall Classifier Accuracy)i = - - - - - - - - Total Number of Cases
Estimating the accuracy of a classification model (or classifier) induced by a supervised learning algorithm is important for the following two reasons: First, it can be used
to estimate its future predictio n accuracy, w hich could imply the level of confidence one
sho uld have in the classifier's output in the prediction system. Second, it can be used for
choosing a classifier from a given set (identifying the "best" classification model among
the many trained). The following are among the most popular estimatio n methodologies
used for classificatio n-type data mining models.
The simple split (or holdout o r test sample estimatio n) partitions
the data into two mutually exclusive subsets called a training set and a test set (or
holdout set). It is common to designate two-thirds of the d ata as the training set and
the remaining o ne-third as the test set. The training set is used by the inducer (mo del
builder), and the built classifier is then tested o n the test set. An exception to this
rule occurs w h e n the classifier is an artificial ne ura l n etwork. In this case, the data
is partitio ne d into three mutually exclusive subsets : training, validatio n , and testing.
SIMPLE SPLIT
216
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
TABLE 5.2
Common Accuracy Metrics for Classification Models
Metric
Description
TP
True Positive Rate = - - TP + FN
The ratio of correctly classified positives divided
by the total positive count (i.e., hit rate
or recall)
TN
True Negative Rate = -TN
_ +_ F_
P
The ratio of correctly classified negat ives
divided by the total negative count
(i.e., false alarm rate)
TP + TN
Accuracy = TP + TN + FP + FN
The ratio of correctly classified instances
(positives and negatives) divided by the
total number of instances
TP
Precision = - - TP + FP
The ratio of correctly classified positives divided
by the sum of correctly classified positives and
incorrectly classified positives
TP
Recall = TP + FN
Ratio of correctly classified positives divided by
the sum of correctly classified positives and
incorrectly classified negatives
Training
Data
Classifier
Preprocessed
Data
1/3
Testing
Data
FIGURE 5.9
Model
Development
Model
Assessment
[scoring)
Prediction
Accuracy
Simple Random Data Splitting.
The validation set is use d during model building to prevent overfitting (more on artificia l neural n etworks can be found in Chapter 6). Figure 5.9 shows the simple split
methodology.
The main criticism of this method is that it makes the assumption that the data in
the two subsets are of the same kind (i.e., have the exact same properties). Becau se this
is a simple random partitioning, in most realistic data sets where the data are skewed on
the classification variable, such an assumption may not hold true. In order to improve this
situation, stratified sampling is suggested, where the strata become the output variable.
Even though this is an improvement over the simple split, it still has a bias associated
from the single random partitioning.
In order to minimize the bias associated w ith the ra ndom
sampling of the training and holdout data samples in comparing the predictive accuracy
of two or more methods, one can use a methodology called k-fold cross-validation. In
k-fold cross-validation, also called rotation estimation, the complete data set is randomly
split into k mutually exclusive subsets of approximately equal size. The classification
model is trained and tested k times. Each time it is trained on all but one fold and then
tested o n the remaining single fold. The cross-validation estimate of the overall accuracy
k-FOLD CROSS-VALIDATION
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 217
of a model is calculated by simply averaging the k individual accuracy measures, as
shown in the following equation:
where CVA stands for cross-validation accuracy, k is the number of folds used, and A is
the accuracy measure (e.g., hit-rate, sensitivity, specificity) of each fold.
ADDITIONAL CLASSIFICATION ASSESSMENT METHODOLOGIES
Other popular assess-
ment methodologies include the following:
• Leave-one-out. The leave-one-out method is similar to the k-fold cross-validation
where the k takes the value of 1; that is, every data point is used for testing once
on as many models developed as there are number of data points. This is a timeconsuming methodology, but sometimes for small data sets it is a viable option.
• Bootstrapping. With bootstrapping, a fixed number of instances from the original data is sampled (with replacement) for training and the rest of the data set is
used for testing. This process is repeated as many times as desired.
• Jackknifing. Similar to the leave-one-out methodology, with jackknifing the accuracy
is calculated by leaving one sample out at each iteration of the estimation process.
• Area under the ROC curve. The area under the ROC curve is a graphical assessment technique where the true positive rate is plotted on the y-axis and false positive
rate is plotted on the x-axis. The area under the ROC curve determines the accuracy
measure of a classifier: A value of 1 indicates a perfect classifier whereas 0.5 indicates
no better than random chance; in reality, the values would range between the two
extreme cases. For example, in Figure 5.10 A has a better classification performance
than B , while C is not any better than the random chance of flipping a coin.
False Positive Rate (1-Specificity)
::·
0.9
~//,./····/···//./···
0.8
0.7
~
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·.,"iii 0.6
B
C:
0)
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0)
C
0.5
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CI:
0)
..,
.2
0.4
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0
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0)
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0.3
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I-
0.2
0.1
0-----------------------------l
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FIGURE 5.10
0.1
0.2
A Sample ROC Curve.
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
218
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
CLASSIFICATION TECHNIQUES A number of techniques (or algorithms) are used for
classification modeling, including the following:
• Decision tree analysis. Decision tree analysis (a machine-learning technique)
is arguably the most popular classification technique in the data mining arena.
A detailed description of this technique is given in the following section .
• Statistical analysis. Statistical techniques were the primary classification algorithm for many years until the emergence of machine-learning techniques. Statistical
classification techniques include logistic regression and discriminant analysis, both
of which make the assumptions that the relationships between the input and output
variables are linear in nature, the data is normally distributed, and the variables are
not correlated and are independent of each other. The questionable nature of these
assumptions has led to the shift toward machine-learning techniques.
• Neural networks. These are among the most popular machine-learning techniques that can be used for classification-type problems. A detailed description of
this technique is presented in Chapter 6.
• Case-based reasoning. This approach uses historical cases to recognize commonalities in order to assign a new case into the most probable category.
• Bayesian classifiers. This approach uses probability theory to build classification
models based on the past occurrences that are capable of placing a new instance
into a most probable class (or category).
• Genetic algorithms. This approach uses the analogy of natural evolutio n to build
directed-search-based mechanisms to classify data samples.
• Rough sets. This method takes into account the partial membership of class labels
to predefined categories in building models (collection of rules) for classification
problems.
A complete description of all of these classification techniques is beyond the scope of this
book; thus, o nly several of the most popular ones are presented here.
DECISION TREES Before describing the details of decision trees, we need to discuss
some simple terminology. First, decision trees include many input variables that may
have an impact on the classification of different patterns. These input variables are usually
called attributes. For example, if we were to build a model to classify loan risks on the
basis of just two characteristics-income and a credit rating-these two characteristics
would be the attributes and the resulting output would be the class label (e.g., low,
medium, or high risk). Second, a tree consists of branches and nodes. A branch represents
the outcome of a test to classify a pattern (on the basis of a test) using one of the attributes. A leaf node at the end represents the final class choice for a pattern (a chain of
branches from the root node to the leaf node, w hich can be represented as a complex
if-then statement).
The basic idea behind a decision tree is that it recursively divides a training set until
each division consists entirely or primarily of examples from one class. Each nonleaf
node of the tree contains a split point, which is a test on one or more attributes and determines how the data are to be divided further. Decision tree algorithms, in general, build
an initial tree from the training data such that each leaf node is pure, and they then prune
the tree to increase its generalization, and, hence, the prediction accuracy on test data.
In the growth phase, the tree is built by recursively dividing the data until each division is either pure (i.e., contains members of the same class) o r relatively small. The basic
idea is to ask questions whose answers would provide the most information, similar to
what we may do w hen playing the game "Twenty Questions."
The split used to partition the data depends on the type of the attribute used in the split.
For a continuous attribute A , splits are of the form value(A) < x, where x is some "optimal"
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
split value of A. For example, the split based on income could be "Income < 50000." For the
categorical attribute A, splits are of the form value(A) belongs to x, where x is a subset of A.
As an example, the split could be on the basis of gender: "Male versus Female. "
A general algorithm for building a decision tree is as follows:
1. Create a root node and assign all of the training data to it.
2. Select the best splitting attribute.
3. Add a branch to the root node for each value of the split. Split the data into mutually exclusive (nonoverlapping) subsets alo ng the lines of the specific split and
mode to the branches.
4. Repeat the steps 2 and 3 for each and every leaf node until the stopping criterion is
reached (e.g., the node is dominated by a single class label).
Many different algo rithms have been proposed for creating decision trees. These
algorithms differ primarily in terms of the way in w hich they determine the splitting attribute (and its split values), the order of splitting the attributes (splitting the same attribute
only o nce o r many times), the number of splits at each node (binary versus ternary), the
stopping criteria, and the pruning of the tree (pre- versus p ostpruning). Some of the most
well-know n algorithms are ID3 (followed by C4.5 and CS as the improved versio ns of
ID3) from machine learning, classification and regression trees (CART) from statistics, and
the chi-squared automatic interaction detector (CHAID) from pattern recognition.
When building a decision tree, the goal at each node is to determine the attribute
and the split po int of that attribute that best divides the training records in order to purify
the class representation at that node. To evaluate the goodness of the split, some splitting indices have been proposed. Two of the most common ones are the Gini index and
information gain. The Gini index is used in CART and SPRINT (Scalable PaRallelizable
Induction of Decision Trees) algorithms. Versions of information gain are used in ID3
(and its newer versions, C4.S and CS).
The Gini index has been used in economics to measure the diversity of a populatio n. The same conce pt can be u sed to determine the purity of a specific class as a result
of a decision to branch along a particular attribute or variable . The best split is the one
that increases the purity of the sets resulting from a proposed split. Let us briefly look into
a simple calculation of Gini index:
If a data set S contains examples fro m n classes, the Gini index is defined as
n
gini(S) = 1 -
2,P]
j=l
where p1 is a relative frequency of class j in S. If a data set S is split into two subsets,
S1 and S2, w ith sizes N1 and N 2 , respectively, the Gini index of the split data contains
examples fro m n classes, and the Gini index is defined as
N
N
N
N
ginisplit (S) = ___!_ gini (S1) + ---2 gini(S2 )
The attribute/split combination that provides the smallest ginisplicCS) is chosen to split the
node. In such a determination, one should enumerate all possible splitting p oints for each
attribute.
Information gain is the splitting mechanism u sed in ID3, w hich is perhaps the
most w idely known decision tree algorithm. It was developed by Ross Quinlan in 1986,
and since then he has evolved this algorithm into the C4.5 and CS algorithms. The basic
idea behind ID3 (and its variants) is to use a concept called entropy in place of the Gini
index. Entropy measures the extent of uncertainty or randomness in a data set. If all the
data in a subset belong to just o ne class, there is no uncertainty o r rando mness in that
219
220 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
data set, so the entropy is zero. The objective of this approach is to build subtrees so that
the entropy of each final subset is zero (or close to zero). Let us also look at the calculation of the information gain.
Assume that there are two classes, P (positive) and N (negative). Let the set of
examples S contain p counts of class P and n counts of class N. The amount of information needed to decide if an arbitrary example in S belongs to P or N is defined as
P
P
p + n
p+n
J(p, n) = - - - log2 - - -
n
n
p+n
p+n
- - log2 - -
Assume that using attribute A a set Swill be partitioned into sets {S1 , S2 , k, Svl - If S; contains P; examples of P and n; examples of N, the entropy, or the expected information
needed to classify objects in all subtrees, S;, is
~ p;+ n;
E(A) = L., - - l(p;, nJ
i= l
P+n
Then, the information that would be gained by branching on attribute A would be
Gain(A) = l(p, n) - E(A)
These calculations are repeated for each and every attribute, and the one with the highest
information gain is selected as the splitting attribute. The basic ideas behind these splitting indices are rather similar to each other but the specific algorithmic details vary.
A detailed definition of the ID3 algorithm and its splitting mechanism can be found in
Quinlan (1986).
Application Case 5.5 illustrates how significant the gains may be if the right data
mining techniques are used for a well-defined business problem.
Cluster Analysis for Data Mining
Cluster analysis is an essential data mining method for classifying items, events, or
concepts into common groupings called clusters. The method is commonly used in biology, medicine, genetics, social network analysis, anthropology, archaeology, astronomy,
character recognition, and even in MIS development. As data mining has increased
in popularity, the underlying techniques have been applied to business, especially to
marketing. Cluster analysis has been used extensively for fraud detection (both credit
card and e-commerce fraud) and market segmentation of customers in contemporary
CRM systems. More applications in business continue to be developed as the strength of
cluster analysis is recognized and used.
Cluster analysis is an exploratory data analysis tool for solving classification
problems. The objective is to sort cases (e.g., people, things, events) into groups, or
clusters, so that the degree of association is strong among members of the same cluster and weak among members of diffe rent clusters. Each cluster describes the class to
which its members belong. An obvious one-dimensional example of cluster analysis is to
establish score ranges into which to assign class grades for a college class. This is similar
to the cluster analysis problem that the U.S. Treasury faced when establishing new tax
brackets in the 1980s. A fictional example of clustering occurs in J. K. Rowling's Harry
Potter books. The Sorting Hat determines to which House (e.g., dormitory) to assign firstyear students at the Hogwarts School. Another example involves determining how to seat
guests at a wedding. As far as data mining goes, the importance of cluster analysis is that
it may reveal associations and structures in data that were not previously apparent but are
sensible and useful once found.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
221
Application Case 5.5
2degrees Gets a 1275 Percent Boost in Churn Identification
2degrees is New Zealand's fastest growing mobile telecommunications company - In less than 3 years, they
have transformed the landscape of New Zealand's
mobile telecommunications market. Entering very
much as the challenger and battling with incumbents
entrenched in the market for over 18 years, 2degrees
has won over 580,000 customers and has revenues
of more than $100 million in just their third year of
operation. Last year's growth was 3761 percent.
Situation
2degrees' information solutions manager, Peter
Mccallum, explains that predictive analytics had
been on the radar at the company for some time.
"At 2degrees there are a lot of analytically aware people, from the CEO down. Once we got to the point
in our business that we were interested in deploying
advanced predictive analytics techniques, we statted to
look at what was available in the marketplace." It soon
became clear that although on paper there were several options, the reality was that the cost of deploying
the well-known solutions made it very difficult to build
a business case, pa1ticularly given that the benefits to
the business were as yet unproven.
After careful evaluation, 2degrees decided
upon a suite of analytics solutions from llAnts
consisting of Customer Response Analyzer, Customer
Churn Analyzer, and Model Builder. .
When asked why they chose 1lAnts Analytics'
solutions, Peter said, "One of the beauties of the
1lAnts Analytics solution was that it allowed us to
get up and running quickly and ve1y economically.
We could test the water and determine what the ROI
was likely to be for predictive analytics, making it a
lot easier to build a business case for future analytics
projects. Yet we didn't really have to sacrifice anything
in terms of functionality-in fact, the churn models
we've built have performed exceptionally well. "
1 lAnts Analytics director of business development, Tom Fuyala, comments: "We are dedicated to
getting o rganizations up and running with predictive
analytics faster, witho ut compromising the quality of
the results. With other solutions you must [use] trial
and error through multiple algorithms manually, but
with 1 lAnts Analytics solutions the entire optimization and management of the algorithms is automated,
allowing thousands to be trialed in a few minutes.
The benefits of this approach are evidenced in the
real-world results. "
Peter is also impressed by the ease of use.
"The simplicity was a big deal to us. Not having to
have the statistical knowledge in-house was definitely a selling point. Company culture was also a
big factor in our decision making. llAnts Analytics
felt like a good fit. They've been very responsive
and have been great to work with. The turnaround
on some of the custom requests we have made has
been fantastic. "
Peter also likes the fact that models can be
built with the desktop modeling tools and then
deployed against the enterprise customer database
with 1 lAnts Predictor. "Once the model has been
built, it is easy to deploy it in 1 lAnts Predictor to
run against Oracle and score our entire customer
base very quickly. The speed with which 1 lAnts
Predictor can re-score hundreds of thousands of
customers is fantastic. We presently re-score our
customer base monthly, but it is so easy that we
could be re-scoring daily if we wanted. "
Benefits
2degrees put 1lAnts Analytics solutions to work
quickly with very satisfying results. The initial project was to focus on an all-too-common problem in
the mobile telecommunications industry: customer
churn (customers leaving). For this they deployed
1 lAnts Customer Churn Analyzer.
2degrees was interested in identifying customers most at risk of churning by analyzing data such
as time on network, days since last top-up, activation
channel, w hether the customer ported their number
or not, customer plan, and outbound calling behaviors over the preceding 90 days.
A carefully controlled experiment was run over
a period of 3 months, and the results were tabulated
and analyzed. The results were excellent: Customers
identified as churners by 1lAnts Customer Churn
Analyzer were a game-changing 1275 percent more
likely to be churners than customers chosen at
( Continued)
222 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.5
(Continued)
random. This can also be expressed as an increase
in lift of 12.75 at 5 percent (the 5% of the total population identified as most likely to churn by the
model). At 10 percent, lift was 7.28. Other benefits
included the various insights that 1 lAnts Customer
Churn Analyzer provided, for instance, validating
things that staff had intuitively felt, such as time on
network's strong relationship with churn, and highlighting areas where product enhancement would be
beneficial.
Armed with the information of which customers were most at risk of defecting, 2degrees could
now focus retention efforts on those identified as
most at risk, thereby getting substantially higher
return on investment on retention marketing expenditure. The bottom line is significantly better results
for fewer dollars spent.
2degrees head of customers, Matt Hobbs, provides a perspective on why this is not just important to 2degrees but also to their customers: "Churn
prediction is a valuable tool for customer marketing and we are excited about the capabilities llAnts
Analytics provides to identify customers who display
indications of churning behavior. This is beneficial
to both 2degrees and to our customers."
• To customers go the benefits of identification
(if you are not likely to churn, you are not
being constantly annoyed by messages asking
you to stay) and appropriateness (customers
receive offers that actually are appropriate to
their usage-minutes for someone who likes to
talk, texts for someone who likes to text, etc.).
• To 2degrees go the benefits of targeting (by
identifying a smaller group of at-risk customers, retention offers can be richer because
of the reduction in the number of people
who may receive it but not need it) and
appropriateness.
By aligning these benefits for both 2degrees and the
customer, the outcomes 2degrees are experiencing
are vastly improved.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What does 2degrees do? Why is it important for
2degrees to accurately identify churn?
2. What were the challenges, the proposed solution, and the obtained results?
3. How can data mining help in identifying customer churn? How do some companies do it
without using data mining tools and techniques?
Source: llAntsAnalytics Customer Stmy, "1275% Boost in
Churn Identification at 2degrees," llantsanalytics.com/
casestudies/2degrees_casestudy.aspx (accessed January 2013).
Cluster analysis results may be used to:
• Identify a classification scheme (e.g. , types of customers)
• Suggest statistical models to describe populations
• Indicate rules for assigning new cases to classes for identification, targeting, and
diagnostic purposes
• Provide measures of definition, size, and change in what were previously broad
concepts
• Find typical cases to label and represent classes
• Decrease the size and complexity of the problem space for other data mining methods
• Identify outliers in a specific domain (e.g., rare-event detection)
Clustering algorithms u sually
require one to specify the number of clusters to find. If this number is not known from
prior knowledge, it should be chosen in some way. Unfortunately, there is no optimal
way of calculating what this number is supposed to be. Therefore, several different
DETERMINING THE OPTIMAL NUMBER OF CLUSTERS
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 223
heuristic methods have been proposed. The following are among the most commonly
referenced ones:
• Look at the p ercentage of varian ce explained as a functio n of the number of clusters; that is, choose a number of clusters so that adding another cluster would not
give much better modeling of the data . Specifically, if o ne graph s the p ercentage
of variance explained by the clusters, there is a point at which the marginal gain
w ill drop (giving an angle in the graph), indicating the number of clusters to be
chosen .
• Set the numbe r of clusters to (n/2) 112 , where n is the numbe r of data points.
• Use the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), which is a measure of the goodness of
fit (based o n the concept of entropy) to determine the number of clusters.
• Use Bayesian information criterion (BIC), which is a model-selection criterion
(based on maximum likelihood estimation) to determine the number of clusters.
ANALYSIS METHODS
Cluster analysis may be based on o ne or more of the following
general methods:
• Statistical methods (including both hierarchical and nonhierarchical), such as
k-means, k-modes, and so o n
• Neural networks (with the architecture called self-organizing map, or SOM)
• Fuzzy logic (e.g ., fu zzy c-means algorithm)
• Genetic algorithms
Each of these methods gene rally works w ith one of two general method classes:
• Divisive. With divisive classes, all items start in o ne cluster and are broken apart.
• Agglomerative. With agglo merative classes, all items start in individual clusters,
and the clusters are joined together.
Most cluster analysis methods involve the use of a distance measure to calculate
the closeness between pairs of items. Popular distance measures include Euclidian distance (the ordinary distance between two points that one would measure with a ruler)
and Manhattan distance (also called the rectilinear distance, o r taxicab distance , between
two points). Often, they are based on true distances that are measured, but this need
not be so, as is typically the case in IS development. Weighted averages may be used to
establish these distances. For example, in an IS develo pme nt project, individual modules
of the system may be related by the similarity between their inputs, outputs, processes,
and the specific data used. These factors are then aggregated, p airw ise by item , into a
single distance measure.
The k-means algorithm (where k stands for the predetermined number of clusters) is arguably the most referenced clustering algorithm .
It has its roots in traditio nal statistical analysis. As the n ame implies, the algorithm assigns
each data p oint (customer, event, object, etc.) to the cluster whose center (also called
centroid) is the nearest. The center is calculated as the average of all the points in the
cluster; that is, its coordinates are the arithmetic mean for each dimension separately over
all the points in the cluster. The algorithm steps are listed below and shown graphically
in Figure 5. 11:
K-MEANS CLUSTERING ALGORITHM
Initialization step:
Choose the number of clusters (i.e., the value of k).
Step 1: Randomly generate k random points as initial cluster centers.
Step 2: Assign each point to the nearest cluster center.
Step 3: Recompute the new cluster cente rs.
224
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Step 1
...I:...,..
. .·.~·:
Step 3
• •
~
..._-~.
• • "-)p•
•J.t.!1
•••
• '5"- ••
. . :,._ ,·0
..
1· .,. .
• •
FIGURE 5.11
A Graphical Illustration of the Steps in k-Means Algorithm.
Repetition step: Repeat steps 2 and 3 until some convergence criterion is met (usually
that the assignment of points to clusters becomes stable).
Association Rule Mining
Association rule mining (also known as affinity analysis or market-basket analysis) is a
popular data mining method that is commonly used as an example to explain w hat data
mining is and what it can do to a technologically less savvy audience. Most of you might
have heard the famous (or infamous, depending on how you look at it) re latio nship
discovered between the sales of beer and diapers at grocery stores. As the story goes, a
large supermarket chain (maybe Walmart, maybe not; there is no consensus on which
supermarket chain it was) did an analysis of customers' buying habits and found a statistically significant correlation between purchases of beer and purchases of diapers. It was
theorized that the reason for this was that fathers (presumably young men) were stopping
off at the supermarket to buy diapers for their babies (especially on Thursdays), and since
they could no longer go to the sports bar as often, would buy beer as well. As a result of
this finding, the sup ermarket chain is alleged to have placed the diapers next to the beer,
resulting in increased sales of both .
In essence, associatio n rule mining aims to find interesting relationships (affinities)
between variables (items) in large databases. Because of its successful application to
retail business problems, it is commonly called market-basket analysis. The main idea
in market-basket analysis is to identify strong relationships among different products
(or services) that are usually purchased together (show up in the same basket together,
either a physical basket at a grocery store or a virtual basket at an e-commerce Web
site). For example, 65 percent of those who buy comprehensive automobile insurance
also buy health insurance; 80 percent of those who buy books o nline also buy music
online; 60 percent of those who have high blood pressure and are overweight have high
cholesterol; and 70 percent of the customers w ho buy laptop compute r and virus protection software also buy extended service plan.
The input to market-basket an alysis is simple p oint-of-sale transaction data, where a
number of products and/or services purchased together (just like the conte nt of a purchase
receipt) are tabulated under a single transaction instance. The outcome of the analysis is
invaluable information that can be used to better understand customer-purchase behavior
in order to maximize the profit from business transactions. A business can take advantage
of such knowledge by (1) putting the items next to each other to make it more convenient for the customers to pick them up together and not forget to buy o ne when buying
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 225
the others (increasing sales volume); (2) promoting the items as a package (do not put
one on sale if the other(s) are on sale); and (3) placing them apart from each other so that
the customer has to walk the aisles to search for it, and by doing so potentially seeing
and buying other items.
Applications of market-basket analysis include cross-marketing, cross-selling, store
design, catalog design, e-commerce site design, optimization of online advertising, product
pricing, and sales/promotion configuration. In essence, market-basket analysis helps
businesses infer customer needs and preferences from their purchase patterns. Outside the
business realm, association rules are successfully used to discover relationships between
symptoms and illnesses, diagnosis and patient characteristics and treatments (which can
be used in medical DSS), and genes and their functions (which can be used in genomics
projects), among others. Here are a few common areas and uses for association rule mining:
• Sales transactions: Combinations of retail products purchased together can be used
to improve product placement on the sales floor (placing products that go together
in close proximity) and promotional pricing of products (not having promotion on
both products that are often purchased together).
• Credit card transactions: Items purchased with a credit card provide insight into
other products the customer is likely to purchase or fraudulent use of credit card
number.
• Banking services: The sequential patterns of services used by customers (checking
account followed by saving account) can be used to identify other services they
may be interested in (investment account).
• Insurance service products: Bundles of insurance products bought by customers
(car insurance followed by home insurance) can be used to propose additional
insurance products (life insurance); or, unusual combinations of insurance claims
can be a sign of fraud.
• Telecommunication services: Commonly purchased groups of options (e.g. , call
waiting, caller ID, three-way calling, etc.) help better structure product bundles to
maximize revenue; the same is also applicable to multi-channel telecom providers
w ith phone, TV, and Internet service offerings.
• Medical records: Certain combinations of conditions can indicate increased risk of
various complications; or, certain treatment procedures at certain medical facilities
can be tied to certain types of infection.
A good question to ask with respect to the patterns/ relationships that association
rule mining can discover is "Are all association rules interesting and useful?" In order to
answer such a question, associatio n rule mining uses two common metrics: support, and
confidence and lift. Before defining these terms, let's get a little technical by showing
what an association rule looks like:
x~ Y[Supp(%), Con/(%)]
{Laptop Computer, Antivirus Software}~ {Extended Service Plan} [300/o, 700/o]
Here, X (products and/ or service; called the left-hand side, LHS, or the antecedent) is
associated with Y (products and/ or service; called the right-hand side, RHS, or consequent). S is the support, and C is the confidence for this particular rule. Here are the
simple formulas for Supp, Conj and Lift.
number of baskets that contains both X and Y
Support= Supp(X~ Y) = - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - total number of baskets
226
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Confidence = Conf(X ~ Y) =
Supp(X~ Y)
( )
Suppx
sex~ Y)
Conf(X~ Y)
Lift(X~ Y) = - - - - - - - Expected Conj(X ~ Y)
S(X)
S(X) * S(Y)
S(X)
sex~ Y)
S(X) * S(Y)
The support (S) of a collection of products is the measure of how often these products
and/ o r services (i.e. , LHS + RHS = Laptop Computer, Antivirus Software, and Extended
Service Plan) appear together in the same transaction , that is, the proportion of transactions in the data set that contain all of the products and/ or services mentioned in a
specific rule. In this example, 30 percent of all transactions in the hypothetical store
database had all three products present in a single sales ticket. The confidence of a rule
is the measure of how often the products and/ or services on the RHS (consequent) go
together with the products and/ or services on the LHS (antecedent), that is, the proportion of transactions that include LHS w hile also including the RHS. In other words, it is
the conditional probability of finding the RHS of the rule present in transactions w here
the LHS of the rule already exists. The lift value of an association rule is the ratio of the
confidence of the rule and the expected confidence of the rule. The expected confidence
of a rule is defined as the product of the support values of the LHS and the RHS divided
by the support of the LHS.
Several algorithms are available for discovering association rules. Some wellknown algorithms include Apriori, Eclat, and FP-Growth. These algorithms only do
half the job, which is to ide ntify the frequent itemsets in the database. Once the
frequent itemsets are identified, they need to be converted into rules w ith antecede nt a nd consequent parts. Determination of th e rules from frequent itemsets is a
straightforward matching process , but the process may be time-consuming w ith large
transaction databases. Even though there can be many items on each section of the
rule, in practice the consequent part usually contains a single item. In th e following
section, one of the most popular algorithms for identification of frequent itemsets is
explained.
APRIORI ALGORITHM The Apriori algorithm is the most commonly used algorithm
to discover association rules. Given a set of itemsets (e .g. , sets of retail transactions,
each listing individual items purchased), the algorithm attempts to find subsets that are
common to at least a minimum number of the itemsets (i.e., complies with a minimum
support). Apriori uses a bottom-up approach, where frequent subsets are extended
o ne item at a time (a method known as candidate generation, whereby the size of
frequent subsets increases from one-item subsets to two-item subsets, then three-item
subsets, etc.) , and groups of candidates at each level are tested against the data for
minimum support. The algorithm terminates w h en no further successful extensions
a re found.
As an illustrative example, consider the following . A grocery store tracks sales
transactions by SKU (stock-keeping unit) and thus knows which items are typically
purchased together. The database of transactions, along with the subsequent steps in
identifying the frequent itemsets, is shown in Figure 5.12. Each SKU in the transaction database corresponds to a product, such as "1 = butter," "2 = bread," "3 = water,"
and so on. The first step in Apriori is to count up the frequencies (i.e., th e supports)
of each item (one-item itemsets). For this overly simplified example , let us set the
minimum support to 3 (or 50%; meaning an itemset is considered to be a frequent
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 227
Raw Transaction Data
Transaction
SKUs
I----+
[Item No]
No
FIGURE 5.1 2
One-Item ltemsets
ltemset
[SKUs)
Support
Two-Item ltemsets
-
ltemset
[SKUs)
Support I----+
Three-Item ltemsets
ltemset
[SKUs)
Support
1001
1, 2, 3, 4
1
3
1, 2
3
1, 2, 4
3
1002
2, 3,4
2
6
1, 3
2
2, 3,4
3
1003
2, 3
3
4
1, 4
3
1004
1, 2 , 4
4
5
2, 3
4
1005
1, 2 , 3, 4
2, 4
5
1006
2 ,4
3,4
3
Identification of Frequent ltemsets in Apriori Algorit hm.
itemset if it shows up in at least 3 out of 6 transactions in the database). Because all
of the one-item itemsets have at least 3 in the support column, they are all considered
frequent itemsets. However, had any of the one-item itemsets not been frequent, they
would not have been included as a possible member of possible two-item pairs. In
this way, Apriori prunes the tree of all possible itemsets. As Figure 5.12 shows, using
one-item itemsets, all possible two-item itemsets are generated, and the transaction
database is used to calculate their support values. Because the two-item itemset (1, 3)
has a support less th an 3, it should not be included in the frequent itemsets that will
be used to generate the next-level itemsets (three-item itemsets). The algorithm seems
deceivingly simple, but o nly for small data sets. In much larger data sets, especially
those with huge amounts of items present in low quantities and small amounts of
ite ms present in big quantities, the search and calculation become a computationally
intensive process.
SECTION 5 .5 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. Identify at least three of the main data mining methods.
2 . Give examples of situations in which classification would be an appropriate data
mining technique. Give examples of situations in which regression would be an
appropriate data mining technique.
3 . List and briefly define at least two classification techniques.
4 . What are some of the criteria for comparing and selecting the best classification
technique?
5 . Briefly describe the general algorithm used in decision trees.
6. Define Cini index. What does it measure?
7 . Give examples of situations in w hich cluster analysis would be an appropriate data
mining technique.
8. What is the major difference between cluster analysis and classification?
9. What are some of the methods for cluster analysis?
10. Give examples of situations in which association would be an appropriate data min ing technique.
228 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
5.6
DATA MINING SOFTWARE TOOLS
Many software vendors provide powerful data mining tools. Examples of these vendors include IBM (IBM SPSS Modeler, formerly known as SPSS PASW Modeler and
Clementine), SAS (Enterprise Min er), StatSoft (Statistica Data Miner), KXEN (Infinite
Insight), Salford (CART, MARS, TreeNet, Rando mForest), Angoss (KnowledgeSTUDIO,
KnowledgeSeeker), and Megaputer (PolyAnalyst). Noticeably but n ot surprisingly,
the most popular data mining tools are developed by the well-established statistical
software companies (SPSS, SAS, a nd StatSoft)- largely because statistics is the foundation of data mining, a nd these companies have the means to cost-effectively develop
them into full-scale data mining systems. Most of the business intelligence tool vendors
(e.g., IBM Cognos, Oracle Hyperion, SAP Business Objects, MicroStrategy, Teradata, and
Microsoft) also have some level of data mining capabilities integrated into their software
offerings. These BI tools are still primarily focused on multidimensional modeling and
data visu alization and are not considered to be direct competitors of the d ata mining
tool vendors.
In addition to these commercial tools, several op en source and/ or free data
mining software tools are available online. Probably the most popular free (an d open
source) data mining tool is Weka, which is develop ed by a number of researchers
from the University of Waikato in New Zealand (the tool can be downloaded from
cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka). Weka includes a large number of a lgorithms for different data mining tasks and has an intuitive user interface. Another recently released, free
(for noncommercial use) data mining tool is RapidMiner (develop ed by Rapid-I; it can
be downloaded from rapid-i.com). Its graphically enhanced user interface, employment of a rather large number of algorithms, and incorporatio n of a variety of data
visualization features set it apart from the rest of the free tools. Another free and open
source data mining tool w ith an appealing graphical user interface is KNIME (which
can be downloaded from knime.org). The main difference between commercial tools,
such as Enterprise Miner, IBM SPSS Modeler, and Statistica, and free tools, such as
Weka, RapidMine r, and KNIME, is computatio nal efficie ncy. The same data mining
task involving a large data set may take a w h ole lot longer to complete w ith the free
software, and for some algorithms may not even complete (i.e ., crashing due to the
inefficient u se of compute r memory). Table 5.3 lists a few of the major products and
their Web sites.
A suite of bu siness intelligence capabilities that has become increasingly more
popular for data mining projects is Microsoft SQL Server, where data and the
models are stored in the same re lational database environment, making model management a considerably easier task. The Microsoft Enterprise Consortium serves
as the worldw ide source for access to Microsoft's SQL Server 2012 software suite for
academic purposes-teaching an d research. The consortium has been established to
enable universities around the world to access enterprise technology with out having
to maintain the necessary hardware and software on their own campus. The consortium provides a w ide range of business intelligence development tools (e.g., d ata
mining, cube building, business reporting) as well as a number of large, realistic data
sets from Sam's Club, Dillard's, an d Tyson Foods. The Microsoft Enterprise Consortium
is free of charge and can o nly be u sed for academic purposes. The Sam M. Walto n
College of Business at the University of Arkansas h osts the enterprise system and
allows consortium members a nd their students to access these resources by u sing a
simple remote desktop conn ection. The details about becoming a part of the consortium along w ith easy-to-follow tutorials and examples can be found at enterprise.
waltoncollege. uark.edu.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 229
TABLE 5.3
Selected Data Mining Software
Product Name
Web Site (URL)
IBM SPSS Modeler
ibm.com/software/analytics/spss/products/modeler/
SAS Enterprise Miner
sas.com/technologies/bi/analytics/index.html
Statistica
statsoft.com/products/dataminer.htm
Intelligent Miner
ibm.com/software/data/iminer
PolyAnalyst
megaputer.com/polyanalyst.php
CART, MARS, TreeNet, RandomForest
salford-systems.com
Insightful Miner
insightful.com
XLMiner
xlminer.net
KXEN (Knowledge extraction ENgi nes)
kxen.com
GhostMiner
fqs.pl/ghostminer
Microsoft SQL Server Data Mi ning
microsoft.com/sqlserver/2012/data-mining.aspx
Knowledge Miner
knowledgeminer.net
Teradata Warehouse Miner
ncr.com/products/software/teradata_mining.htm
Oracle Data Mining (ODM)
otn.oracle.com/products/bi/9idmining.html
Fair Isaac Business Science
fairisaac.com/edm
Delta Master
bissantz.de
iData Analyzer
infoacumen.com
Orange Dat a Mining Tool
ailab.si/orange
Zementis Predictive Analytics
zementis.com
In May 201 2, kdnuggets.com cond ucted the thirteenth annual Software Poll o n
the following questio n: "What Analytics, Data Mining, and Big Data software have you
used in the past 12 months for a real project (not just evaluation)?" Here are some of the
interesting findings that came out of the p oll:
• For the first time (in the last 13 years of polling o n the same q uestion) , the number
of users of free/op en source software exceeded the num ber of users of commercial
software .
• Amo ng voters 28 p e rcent used commercial software but not free software, 30 percent
used free software but not commercial, and 41 percent used both.
• The usage of Big Data tools grew fivefold: 15 p ercent used them in 201 2, versus
about 3 p e rcent in 2011.
• R, RapidMiner, and KNIME are the most popular free/ o pen source tools, while
StatSoft's Statistica, SAS's Enterp rise Miner, and IBM's SPSS Mode ler are the most
p opular data mining tools.
• Among those w ho wrote their own analytics code in lower-level languages, R, SQL,
Java, and Python were the most popular.
230 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
To reduce bias through multiple voting, in this poll kdnuggets.com used e-mail
verificatio n, which reduced the total number of votes compared to 2011 , but made results
more representative. The results for data mining software tools are shown in Figure 5.13,
while the results for Big Data software tools used , and the platform/ language u sed for
your own code, is shown in Figure 5.14.
Application Case 5.6 is about a research study where a number of software tools and
data mining techniques are used to build mode ls to predict financial success (box-office
receipts) of Hollywood movies while they are nothing mo re than ideas.
R
Excel
Rapid-I RapidMiner
KNIME
Weka/ Pentaho
Stat Soft Statistics
SAS
Rapid-I RapidAnalytics
MATLAB
IBM SPSS Statistics
IBM SPSS Modeler
SAS Enterprise Miner
Or ange
Microsoft SQL Server
Other free software
TIBCO Spotfire/ S+/Miner
Tableau
Oracle Data Miner
Other commercial software
JMP
Mathematica
Miner3D
IBM Cognos
Stata
Zementis
KXEN
Bayesia
C4.5/C5 .0 / See5
Revolution Computing
Salford SPM/ CART/MARS/ TreeNet/ RF
XLSTAT
SAP (BusinessObjects/ Sybase/Hana]
Angoss
Rapidlnsight/Veera
Teradata Miner
11 Ants Analytics
WordStat
Predixion Software
245
238
213
174
118
112
101
83
BO
62
54
46
3
3
0
50
100
FIGURE 5.13 Popular Data M ining Software Tools (Poll Results).
kdnuggets.com .
150
200
250
300
Source: Used with perm ission of
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
231
Big Data software tools/platforms used for your analytics projects
167
Apache Hadoop/Hbase/Pig/Hive
Amazon Web Services (AWSJ
136
NoSQL databases
133
Other Big Data software
Other Hadoop-based tools
121
=::::J 10
D
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Platforms/languages used for your own analytics code
245
R
185
SQL
138
Java
Python
119
66
C/ C++
57
Other languages
37
Perl
Awk/Gawk/ Shell
F#
0
50
100
150
200
FIGURE 5.14 Popular Big Data Software Tools and Platforms/ Languages Used.
poll conducted by kdnuggets.com.
250
300
Source: Result s of a
Application Case 5.6
Data Mining Goes to Hollywood: Predicting Financial Success of Movies
Predicting box-office receipts (i.e., financial success)
of a particular motion picture is an interesting and
challenging problem. According to some domain
experts, the movie industry is the "land of hunches
and wild guesses" due to the difficulty associated
with forecasting product demand, making the
movie business in Hollywood a risky endeavor.
In support of such observations, Jack Valenti (the
longtime president and CEO of the Motion Picture
Association of America) once mentioned that " ... no
one can tell you how a movie is going to do in the
marketplace ... not until the film opens in darkened
theatre and sparks fly up between the screen and
the audience." Entertainment industry trade journals
and magazines have been full of examples, statements, and experiences that support such a claim.
Like many other researchers who have attempted
to shed light on this challenging real-world problem,
Ramesh Sharda and Dursun Delen have been exploring the use of data mining to predict the financial performance of a motion picture at the box office before
it even enters production (while the movie is nothing
more than a conceptual idea). In their highly publicized prediction models, they convert the forecasting
( Continued)
232 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.6
(Continued)
(or regression) problem into a classification problem;
that is, rather than forecasting the point estimate of
box-office receipts, they classify a movie based on its
box-office receipts in one of nine categories, ranging
from "flop" to "blockbuster," making the problem a
multinomial classification problem. Table 5.4 illust:rates the definition of the nine classes in terms of the
range of box-office receipts.
Data
Data was collected from variety of movie-related
databases (e.g., ShowBiz, IMDb, IMSDb, AllMovie,
etc.) and consolidated into a single data set. The
data set for the most recently developed models
contained 2,632 movies released between 1998 and
2006. A summary of the independent variables along
with their specifications is provided in Table 5.5. For
more descriptive details and justification for inclusion of these independe nt variables, the reader is
referred to Sharda and Deleo (2007).
Methodology
Using a variety of data mmmg methods, including neural networks, decision trees, support vector machines, and three types of ensembles, Sharda
TABLE 5.4
Movie Classification Based on Receipts
Class No.
1
Range (in millions of dollars)
TABLE 5.5
2
and Delen developed the prediction models. The
data from 1998 to 2005 were used as training data
to build the prediction models, and the data from
2006 was used as the test data to assess and compare the models' prediction accuracy. Figure 5.15
shows a screenshot of IBM SPSS Modeler (formerly
Clementine data mining tool) depicting the process
map employed for the prediction problem. The
upper-left side of the process map shows the model
development process, and the lower-right corner of
the process map shows the model assessment (i.e.,
testing or scoring) process (more details on IBM
SPSS Modeler tool and its usage can be found on the
book's Web site).
Results
Table 5.6 provides the prediction results of all three
data mining methods as well as the results of the
three different ensembles. The first performance
measure is the percent correct classification rate,
which is called bingo. Also reported in the table is
the 1-Away correct classification rate (i.e., within
one catego1y). The results indicate that SVM performed the best among the individual prediction
models, followed by ANN; the worst of the three
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
61
71
710
720
740
7 65
7 100
7 150
7 200
(Flop)
6 10
6 20
6 40
6 65
6 100
6150
6 200
(Blockbuster)
Summary of Independent Variables
Independent Variable
Number of Values
Possible Values
MPAA Rating
5
G,PG,PG-13, R, NR
Competition
3
High, Medium, Low
Star value
3
High, Medium, Low
Genre
10
Sci-Fi, Historic Epic Drama, Modern Drama, Politically Related,
Thriller, Horror, Comedy, Cartoon, Action, Documentary
Special effects
3
High, Medium, Low
Sequel
2
Yes, No
Number of screens
A positive integer between 1 and 3876
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 233
;----------@
[i] :
I
Table
X
/
Neural N e ~ :
~ .... @ II
I
I
'Model
I Development
I process
@ .............__ _
I
996-2oos
I .,,-------~
~ .-~.,.. __•.
t=A
\_______:,/ ,'
Data
~
Model
Assessment
CART Decision ITree
I
.~~- / }
....,.
(
/
"'
:2000
M
)II
~
i;,;1ass
)a
o,• ~ Class
I°'I
Ma,,;,
., ~
~
....-~~.
I
, _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _Class _ _ _ _
FIGURE 5.15 Process Flow Screenshot for the Box-Office Prediction System.
from IBM SPSS.
Analysis ./
Source: Used with permission
deviation obtained from the ensem bles compared to
the individual models.
was the CART decision tree algorithm. In general,
the ensemble models performed better than the individual p redictions models, of w hich the fusion algorithm performed the best. What is probably more
important to decision makers, and standing out in
the results table, is the significantly low standard
TABLE 5.6
&
Analysis
)II. ~ y'
i
Class
ml "\
Cl
/
~@
DataMining_Movie_,
0
~~--
Conclusion
The researchers claim that these prediction results are
better than any reported in the published literature for
Tabulated Prediction Results for Individual and Ensemble Models
Prediction Models
Individual Models
Ensemble Models
Boosted
Tree
Fusion
(Average)
189
187
194
12 1
104
120
54.62%
54.05%
56.07%
76.88%
89.60%
84.10%
90.75%
1.05
0.76
0.84
0.63
ANN
CART
192
182
140
104
120
126
Accuracy (% Bingo)
55.49%
52 .60%
40.46%
Accuracy(% 1-Away)
85.55%
87.28%
Standard deviation
0.93
0.87
Performance Measure
SVM
Count (Bingo)
Count (1-Away)
Random
Forest
( Continued)
234
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.6
(Continued}
this problem domain. Beyond the attractive accuracy
of their prediction results of the box-office receipts,
these models could also be used to further analyze
(and potentially optimize) the decision variables in
order to maximize the financial return. Sp ecifically, the
parameters used for modeling could be altered using
the already trained prediction models in o rder to better
understand the in1pact of diffe rent p arameters on the
end results. During this process, w hich is commonly
referred to as sensitivity analysis, the decision maker of
a given entertainment firm could find out, w ith a fairly
high accuracy level, how much value a specific actor
(or a specific release date, or the addition of more
technical effects, etc.) brings to the financial success
of a film, making the underlying system an invaluable
decision aid.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why is it important for Hollywood professio nals
to pre dict the financial success of movies?
2. How can data mining be used to pre dict the
financial success of movies before the start of
the ir p roductio n p rocess?
3. How do you think Hollywood performed, and
p erhaps is still performing, this task without the
help of data mining tools and techniqu es?
Sources: R. Sharda and D. Dele n, "Predicting Box-Office Success
of Motion Pictures w ith Neural Networks," Expert Systems with
Applications, Vol. 30, 2006, pp. 243-254; D. Delen, R. Sharda,
and P. Kumar, "Movie Forecast Guru: A Web-based DSS for
Hollywood Managers," Decision Support Systems, Vol. 43, No. 4,
2007, pp. 1151-1170.
SECTION 5 .6 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the most popular comme rcial data mining tools?
2 . Why do you think the most p opular tools are developed by statistics companies?
3. What are the most popular free data mining tools?
4. What are the main differences between commercial and free data mining software tools?
5. What would be your to p five selection criteria for a data mining tool? Explain.
5.7
DATA MINING PRIVACY ISSUES, MYTHS, AND BLUNDERS
Data Mining and Privacy Issues
Data that is collected , stored , and analyzed in data mmmg ofte n contains informatio n
about real people . Such information may include ide ntificatio n data (name, address,
Social Security number, driver's license number, employee number, etc.), demographic
data (e.g., age, sex, ethnicity, marital status, number of children , etc.), financial data
(e.g., salary, gross family income, checking o r savings account balance, home ownership,
mortgage or loan account specifics, credit card limits and balances, investment account
specifics, etc.), purchase history (i.e., w hat is bought fro m w here and w hen eithe r from
the vendor's transaction records or from credit card transactio n specifics), and othe r personal data (e.g., anniversary, pregnancy, illness, loss in the family, bankruptcy filings,
etc.). Most of these data can be accessed through some third-party data provide rs. The
main questio n here is the privacy of the p erson to w hom the data belongs. In o rder
to maintain the privacy and p rotection of individuals' rights, data mining p rofessionals
have ethical (and ofte n legal) o bligations. One way to accomplish this is the process of
de-identificatio n of the customer records prior to applying data mining applicatio ns, so
that the records cannot be traced to an individ ual. Many publicly available data sources
(e.g., CDC data, SEER data, UNOS data, etc.) are already de-identified. Prior to accessing
these data sources, users are often aske d to consent that under n o circumstances w ill they
try to ide ntify the individuals be hind those figures.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 235
There have been a number of instances in the recent past where companies shared
their customer data with others without seeking the explicit consent of their customers.
For instance, as most of you might recall, in 2003, JetBlue Airlines provided more than
a million passenger records of their customers to Torch Concepts, a U.S. government
contractor. Torch then subsequently augmented the passenger data with additional information such as family size and Social Security numbers-information purchased from a
data broker called Acxiom. The consolidated personal database was intended to be used
for a data mining project in order to develop potential terrorist profiles. All of this was
done without notification or consent of passengers. When news of the activities got out,
however, dozens of privacy lawsuits were filed against JetBlue, Torch, and Acxiom, and
several U.S. senators called for an investigation into the incident (Wald, 2004). Similar, but
not as dramatic, privacy-related news has come out in the recent past about the popular
social network companies, which allegedly were selling customer-specific data to other
companies for personalized target marketing.
There was another peculiar sto1y about privacy concerns that made it into the headlines in 2012. In this instance, the company did not even use any private and/ or personal
data. Legally speaking, there was no violation of any laws. It was about Target and is
summarized in Application Case 5.7.
Application Case 5.7
Predicting Customer Buying Patterns-The Target Story
In early 2012, an infamous story appeared concerning Target's practice of predictive analytics. The
story was about a teenager girl who was being
sent advertising flyers and coupons by Target for
the kinds of things that a new mother-to-be would
buy from a store like Target. The story goes like
this: An angry man went into a Target outside of
Minneapolis, demanding to talk to a manager: "My
daughter got this in the mail!" he said. "She's still
in high school, and you're sending her coupons for
baby clothes and cribs? Are you trying to encourage
her to get pregnant?" The manager didn't have any
idea what the man was talking about. He looked
at the mailer. Sure enough, it was addressed to the
man's daughter and contained advertisements for
maternity clothing, nursery furniture, and pictures of
smiling infants. The manager apologized and then
called a few days later to apologize again. On the
phone, though, the father was somewhat abashed.
"I had a talk with my daughter," he said. "It turns out
there's been some activities in my house I haven't
been completely aware of. She's due in August. I
owe you an apology. "
As it turns out, Target figured out a teen girl
was pregnant before her father did! Here is how
they did it. Target assigns every customer a Guest
ID number (tied to their credit card, name, or e-mail
address) that becomes a placeholder that keeps a
history of everything they have bought. Target augments this data with any demographic information
that they had collected from them or bought from
other information sources. Using this information,
Target looked at historical buying data for all the
females who had signed up for Target baby registries in the past. They analyzed the data from all
directions, and soon enough some useful patterns
emerged. For example, lotions and special vitamins
were among the products with interesting purchase
patterns. Lots of people buy lotion, but they have
noticed was that women on the baby registry were
buying larger quantities of unscented lotion around
the beginning of their second trimester. Another analyst noted that sometime in the first 20 weeks, pregnant women loaded up on supplements like calcium,
magnesium, and zinc. Many shoppers purchase soap
and cotton balls, but when someone suddenly starts
buying lots of scent-free soap and extra-big bags
of cotton balls, in addition to hand sanitizers and
washcloths, it signals that they could be getting close
to their delivery date . At the end, they were able
to identify about 25 products that, whe n analyzed
together, allowed them to assign each shopper a
(Continued)
236
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 5.7
(Continued}
"pregnancy prediction" score. More important, they
could also estimate a woman's due date to within a
small window, so Target could send coupons timed
to very specific stages of her pregnancy.
If you look at this practice from a legal perspective, you would conclude that Target did not use any
information that violates customer privacy; rather,
they used transactional data that most every o the r
retail chain is collecting and storing (and perhaps
analyzing) about their customers. What was disturbing in this scenario was perhaps the targeted concept:
pregnancy. There are certain events or concepts that
should be off limits or treated extremely cautiously,
such as terminal disease, divorce, and bankruptcy.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What do you think about data mmmg and its
implications concerning privacy? What is the
threshold between knowledge discovery and
privacy infringement?
2. Did Target go too far? Did they do anything
illegal? What do you think they should have
done? What do you think they should do n ow
(quit these types of practices)?
Sources: K. Hill, "How Target Figured Out a Teen Girl Was
Pregnant Before Her Fathe r Did," Forbes, February 13, 2012;
and R. Nolan, "Be hind the Cover Story: How Much Does Target
Know' " NYTimes.com, Februa1y 21, 2012.
Data Mining Myths and Blunders
Data mining is a powerful analytical tool that enables business executives to advance
from describing the nature of the past to predicting the future . It he lps marketers find
patterns that unlock the mysteries of customer behavior. The results of data mining can be
used to increase revenue, reduce expe nses, identify fraud, and locate business opportunities, offering a whole new realm of competitive advantage. As an evolving and maturing
field, data mining is often associated with a number of myths, including the following
(Zaima, 2003):
Myth
Reality
Data mining provides instant, crystal-ball-like
predictions.
Data mining is a multist ep process that requires
deliberate, proactive design and use.
Data mining is not yet viable for business
applications.
The current state-of-the-art is ready to go for
almost any business.
Data mining requires a separate,
dedicated database.
Because of advances in database technology,
a dedicated database is not required, even
though it may be desirable.
Only those with advanced degrees can
do data mining.
New er Web-based tools enable managers of all
educational levels to do data mining .
Data mining is only for large f irms that have
lots of customer data.
If the dat a accurately reflect the business or its
customers, a company can use data mining .
Data mining visionaries have gained enormous competitive advantage by understanding
that these myths are just that: myths.
The following 10 data mining mistakes are often made in practice (Skalak, 2001;
Shultz, 2004), and you should try to avoid them:
1. Selecting the wrong problem for data mining.
2. Ignoring what your sponsor thinks data mining is and what it really can and cannot do.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining 237
3 . Leaving insufficient time for data preparation. It takes more effort than is generally
unde rstood.
4. Looking only at aggregated results and not at individual records. IBM's DB2 IMS can
highlight individual records of interest.
5. Being sloppy about keeping track of the data mining procedure and results.
6. Ignoring suspicious findings and quickly moving on .
7. Running mining algorithms repeatedly and blindly. It is important to think hard
about the next stage of data analysis. Data mining is a very hands-on activity.
8 . Believing everything you are told about the data.
9. Believing everything you are told about your own data mining analysis.
10. Measuring your results differently from the way your sponsor measures them.
SECTION 5. 7 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the privacy issues in data mining?
2. How do you think the discussion between privacy and data mining w ill progress? Why?
3. What are the most common myths about data mining?
4. What do you think are the reasons for these myths about data mining?
5. What are the most common data mining mistakes/ blunders? How can they be minimized and/ o r eliminate d?
Chapter Highlights
• Data mining is the process of discovering new
knowledge from databases.
• Data mining can use simple flat files as data
sources o r it can be performed on data in data
warehouses.
• There are many alternative names and definitions
for data mining.
• Data mining is at the intersection of many disciplines, including statistics, artificial intelligence,
and mathematical modeling.
• Companies use data mining to better understand
the ir customers and optimize the ir operations.
• Data mining applications can be found in virtually
every area of business and government, including healthcare, fina nce, marketing, and homeland
security.
• Three broad categories of data mining tasks are
prediction (classification or regression), clustering, and associatio n .
• Similar to othe r information systems initiatives,
a data mining project must follow a systematic
project management process to be successful.
• Several data mining processes have been proposed: CRISP-DM, SEMMA, KDD, and so forth .
• CRISP-DM provides a systematic and orderly way
to conduct data mining pro jects.
• The earlier steps in data mmmg projects (i.e .,
understanding the domain and the relevant data)
consume most of the to tal project time (often
more than 80% of the total time).
• Data preprocessing is essential to any su ccessful
data mining study. Good data leads to good information; good information leads to good decisions.
• Data preprocessing includes four main steps: data
consolidation , data cleaning, data transformatio n,
and data reduction.
• Classificatio n methods learn from previous examples containing inputs and the resulting class
labels, and once properly trained they are able to
classify future cases.
• Clustering p artitio ns pattern records into natural
segments or clusters. Each segment's members
share similar characteristics.
• A number of different algorithms are commonly
used for classificatio n. Commercial implementations include ID3, C4.5, C5, CART, and SPRINT.
• Decision trees partitio n data by branching along
different attributes so that each leaf no de has all
the patterns of o ne class.
• The Gini index and information gain (entropy)
are two popular ways to determine branching
choices in a decision tree.
238 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
• The Gini index measures the purity of a sample.
If everything in a sample belongs to one class,
the Gini index value is zero.
• Several assessment techniques can measure the
prediction accuracy of classification models,
including simple split, k-fold cross-validation,
bootstrapping, and area under the ROC curve .
• Cluster algorithms are used when the data records
do not have predefined class identifiers (i.e. , it is not
known to what class a particular record belongs).
• Cluster algorithms compute measures of similarity
in order to group similar cases into clusters.
• The most commonly used similarity measure in
cluster analysis is a distance measure.
• The most commonly used clustering algorithms
are k-means and self-organizing maps.
• Association rule mmmg is used to discover two
or more items (or events or concepts) that go
together.
• Association rule mining is commonly referred to
as market-basket analysis.
• The most commonly used association algorithm
is Apriori, whereby frequent itemsets are identified through a bottom-up approach.
• Association rules are assessed based on their support and confidence measures.
• Many commercial and free data mining tools are
available.
• The most popular comme rcial data mining tools
are SPSS PASW and SAS Enterprise Miner.
• The most p opular free data mining tools are
Weka and RapidMiner.
Key Terms
Apriori algorithm
area under the ROC
curve
association
bootstrapping
categorical data
classification
clustering
confidence
CRISP-DM
data mining
decision tree
distance measure
entropy
Gini index
information gain
interval data
k-fold cross-validation
knowledge discovery in
databases (KDD)
lift
link analysis
Microsoft Enterprise
Consortium
Microsoft SQL Server
nominal data
numeric data
ordinal data
predictio n
RapidMiner
ratio data
regression
SEMMA
sequence mining
simple split
support
Weka
Questions for Discussion
1. Define data mining. Why are there many names and
definitions for d ata mining?
2. What are the main reasons for the recent popularity of
data mining?
3. Discuss what an organization should consider before
making a decision to purchase data mining software.
4. Distinguish data mining from other analytical too ls and
techniques.
5. Discuss the main data mining methods. What are the
fundamental differences among them?
6. What a re the main data mining applicatio n areas? Discuss
the commonalities of these areas that make them a prospect for data mining studies.
7. Why do we need a standardized data mining process? What are the most commonly used data mining
processes?
8. Discuss the differences between the two most com-
monly use d data mining processes.
9. Are data mining processes a mere seque ntial set of activities? Explain.
10. Why do we need data preprocessing? What are the m ain
tasks and relevant techniques used in data preprocessing?
11. Discuss the reasoning behind the assessment of classifi-
cation models.
12. What is the main diffe re nce between classification and
clustering? Explain using concrete examples.
13. Moving beyond the chapter discussion, where else can
association be used?
14. What are the privacy issues w ith data mining? Do you
think they are substantiated?
15. What are the most common myths and mistakes about
data mining?
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
239
Exercises
Teradata University Network (TUN) and Other
Hands-on Exercises
1. Visit teradatauniversitynetwork.com. Identify case
studies and w hite papers about data mining. Describe
recent developments in the field.
2. Go to teradatauniversitynetwork.com or a URL provided by your instructor. Locate Web seminars related
to data mining. In particular, locate a seminar given by
C. Imhoff and T. Zouqes. Watch the Web seminar. Then
answer the following questions:
a.
b.
What are some of the interesting applications of
data mining?
What types of payoffs and costs can organizatio ns
expect from data mining initiatives?
3. For this exercise, your goal is to build a model to identify inputs or predictors that differentiate risky customers
from others (based on patterns pertaining to previous
custome rs) and then use those inputs to predict new
risky customers. This sample case is typical for this
domain.
The sample data to be used in this exercise are in
Online File W5.1 in the file CreditRisk.xlsx. The data
set has 425 cases and 15 variables pertaining to past and
curre nt customers who have borrowed from a bank for
various reasons. The data set contains customer-related
information such as financial standing, reason for the
loan, employment, de mographic information, and the
outcome or dependent variable for credit standing, classifying each case as good o r bad, based on the institution's past experie nce.
Take 400 of the cases as training cases and set
aside the other 25 for testing. Build a decision tree
model to learn the characteristics of the problem. Test
its performance on the other 25 cases. Report o n your
model's learning and testing performance. Prepare a
report that identifies the decision tree mode l a nd training parameters, as well as the resulting performance on
the test set. Use any decisio n tree software. (This exercise is courtesy of StatSoft, Inc. , based on a German
data set from ftp.ics.uci.edu/pub/machine-learningdatabases/statlog/german re named CreditRisk and
alte red.)
4. For this exercise, you will replicate (on a smaller
scale) the box-office prediction modeling explained in
Application Case 5.6. Download the training data set
from Online File W5.2, MovieTrain.xlsx, w hich is in
Microsoft Excel format. Use the data description given
in Applicatio n Case 5.6 to unde rstand the doma in and
the problem you are trying to solve. Pick and choose
your independent variables. Develop at least three classificatio n models (e.g., decisio n tree, logistic regression, neural networks). Compare the accuracy results
using 10-fold cross-validatio n and percentage split
techniq ues, use confusio n matrices, and comment on
the o utcome. Test the models you have developed on
the test set (see Online File W5 .3, MovieTest.xlsx).
Analyze the results with diffe rent models and come up
with the best classification model, supporting it with
your results.
5. This exercise is aimed at introducing you to association
rule mining. The Excel data set basketslntrans.xlsx
has around 2800 observations/ records of supermarket
transaction data. Each record contains the customer's
ID and Products that they have purchased. Use this
data set to understand the relationships among products (i.e., w hich products are purchased together). Look
for interesting relationships and add screenshots of any
subtle association patterns that you might find. More
specifically, answer the following questions.
Which association rules do you think are most
important?
Based on some of the association rules you found,
make at least three business recommendatio ns
that might be beneficial to the company. These
recommendations may include ideas about shelf
organization, upselling, or cross-selling products.
(Bonus points will be given to new/ innovative ideas.)
What are the Support, Confidence, and Lift values
for the following rule?
Wine, Canned Veg ~ Frozen Meal
Team Assignments and Role-Playing Projects
I. Examine how new data-capture devices such as
radio-frequency identification (RFID) tags h elp organizatio ns accurately identify and segment their custome rs
for activities such as targeted marketing. Many of these
applications involve data mining. Scan the literature
and the Web and then propose five potential new data
mining applications that can use the data created with
RFID technology. What issues could arise if a country's
laws required such devices to be embedded in everyone's body for a national identification system?
2. Interview administrators in your college or executives
in your organization to determine how data warehousing, data mining, OLAP, and visualization tools could
assist them in their work. Write a proposal describing
your findings. Include cost estimates and benefits in your
report.
3. A ve1y good repository of data that has been used to
test the performance of many data mining algorithms
is available at ics.uci.edu/-mlearn/MLRepository.
html. Some of the data sets are meant to test the limits
of current machine-learning algorithms and to compare
their performance w ith new approaches to learning.
However, some of the smaller data sets can be useful for
exploring the functio nality of any data mining software
240
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
or the software that is available as companio n software
with this book, such as Statistica Data Miner. Download
at least o ne data set from this reposito1y (e.g., Credit
Screening Databases, Ho using Database) and apply
decisio n tree o r clustering metho ds, as appropriate.
Prepare a report based o n your results. (Some of these
exercises may be used as semeste r-lo ng term p rojects,
for example .)
4. The re a re large a nd feature rich data sets ma de available by the U.S. governme nt o r its subsidiaries o n the
Inte rne t. For instance Centers for Disease Control and
Preventio n d ata sets (cdc.gov/DataStatistics) ; the
Nationa l Can cer Institute's Surveillance Epidemio logy
and End Results data sets (seer.cancer.gov/data);
and the De partme nt of Transportation's Fatality
Analysis Re p o rting System crash data sets (nhtsa.gov/
FARS). These data sets are not pre processed for data
mining, which m akes the m a great resource to expe rience the complete data mining process. Ano the r rich
source for a collectio n of analytics data sets is liste d
on KDNuggets.com (kdnuggets.com/datasets/
index.html) .
5. Consider the following data set, w hich includes three
attributes and a classification for admissio n decisio ns
into an MBA program:
a.
b.
c.
Using the data shown , develop your own manual
expe n rules for decisio n making .
Use the Gini index to build a decisio n tree. You can
use manual calculatio ns o r a spreadsheet to pe rform
the basic calculations.
Use an auto mated decision tree software program to
build a tree for the same data.
GMAT
GPA
Quantitative GMAT
Score (percentile)
650
2.75
35
580
3.50
70
No
No
Decision
600
3.50
75
Yes
450
2.95
80
No
700
3.25
90
Yes
590
3.50
80
Yes
400
3.85
45
No
640
3.50
75
Yes
540
3.00
60
?
690
2.85
80
?
490
4.00
65
?
Internet Exercises
1. Visit the AI Explorato rium at cs.ualberta.ca/-aixplore.
Click the Decision Tree link. Read the narrative on basketball game statistics. Examine the data and the n build
a decision tree. Repo rt your impressio ns of the accuracy
of this decision tree . Also , explore the effects of d iffe rent
algorithms.
2. Survey some data mining tools and ve ndors. Stan w ith
fairisaac.com and egain.com. Consult dmreview.com
and ide ntify some data mining products and service provide rs that are not mentio ned in this chapter.
3. Find recent cases of successful data mining applicatio ns.
Visit the Web sites of some data mining vendo rs and
look for cases o r success stories. Prepare a report summarizing five new case studies.
4. Go to vendor Web sites (especially those of SAS, SPSS,
Cognos, Teradata, StatSoft, and Fair Isaac) and look at
success stories for BI (OLAF and data mining) tools.
What do the vario us success sto ries have in commo n?
How do they differ?
5. Go to statsoft.com. Download at least three w hite
papers on applicatio ns. Which of these applications may
have used the data/ text/Web mining techniques discussed in this chapter?
6. Go to sas.com. Download at least three w hite papers on
applicatio ns. Which of these applicatio ns may have used
the d ata/ text/Web mining techniques discussed in this
chapte r?
7. Go to spss.com. Download at least three w hite pape rs
o n applications. Which of these applicatio ns may have
used the d ata/ text/Web mining techniq ues discussed in
this chapter?
8. Go to teradata.com. Download at least three w hite
pape rs on applications. Which of these applications may
have used the data/ text/ We b mining techniques d iscussed in this chapter?
9. Go to fairisaac.com. Download at least three w hite
papers o n applications. Which of these applications
may have used the data/ text/Web mining tech niques
discussed in this chapter?
10. Go to salfordsystems.com. Download at least three
w hite papers o n applications. Which of these applicatio ns may have used the data/ text/ Web mining techniques discussed in this chapter?
11. Go to rulequest.com. Download at least three w hite
papers o n ap plications. Which of these applications
m ay have used the data/ text/Web mining tech niques
discussed in this chapte r?
12. Go to kdnuggets.com. Explore the sectio ns on a pplicatio ns as well as software . Find names of at least three
additio nal packages for d ata mining and text mining.
Chapter 5 • Data Mining
241
End-of-Chapter Application Case
Macys.com Enhances Its Customers' Shopping Experience with Analytics
After more than 80 years in business, Macy's Inc. is o ne
of America's most iconic retailers. With annual revenues
exceeding $20 billion, Macy's e njoys a loyal base of
customers who come to its sto res and shop o nline each
day. To continue its legacy of providing stellar customer
service and the right selection of products, the re ta ile r's
e-commerce division-Macys.com-is u sing analytics
to better unde rstand and enhance its custo me rs' online
shopping exp erie nce, while he lping to increase the re tailer's overall profitability.
To mo re effectively measure and understand the
impact of its online marketing initiatives o n Macy's sto re
sales, Macys.com increased its analytical capabilities w ith SAS
Enterprise Miner (one of the premier data mining tools in the
market), resulting in an e-mail subscriptio n churn reduction
of 20 percent. It also u ses SAS to automate re port gene ration,
saving more than $500,000 a year in comp analyst time.
Ending "One Size Fits All" E-Mail Marketing
"We want to understand customer lifetime value ," explains
Kerem Tomak, vice president of analytics for Macys.com.
"We want to unde rstand how lo ng our customers have been
with us, how often an e-mail from us triggers a visit to o ur
site. This helps us bette r unde rstand who our best customers
are and how engaged they are with us. [With that knowledge]
we can give our valuable customers the right promotions in
order to serve them the best way possible.
"Customers share a lot of information with us-the ir
likes and dislikes-and our task is to support them in return
for the ir loyalty by providing them with what they want,
instantly," adds Tomak. Macys.com uses Hadoop as a data
platform for SAS Enterprise Miner.
Initially, Tomak was worried that segme nting customers and sending fewer, but mo re specific, e=mails would
re duce traffic to the Web site . "The general belief was that
we had to blast everyone," Tomak said. Today, e-mails are
sent less frequently, but w ith more thought, and the retailer
has reduced su bscription churn rate by approximate ly
20 percent.
Time Savings, Lower Costs
Tomak's group is responsible for creating a variety of mission
critical repo11s- some daily, some weekly, others monthlythat go to e mployees in marketing and finance. These
data-rich reports were taking analysts 4 to 12 hours to produce-much of it busy work that involved cutting and pasting fro m Excel spreadsheets. Macys.com is now u sing SAS to
automate the reports. "This cuts the time dramatically. It saves
us mo re than $500,000 a year in terms of comp FTE hours
saved- a really big impact," Tomak says, noting that the savings began within about 3 months of installing SAS.
Now his staff can maximize time spent on providing value-added analyses and insights to provide content,
products, and offers that guarantee a personalized shopping
experience for Macys.com custome rs.
"Macy's is a ve1y info1mation-hungry o rganizatio n, and
requests for ad hoc reports come from all over the company.
These streamlined systems eliminate error, guarantee accuracy,
and increase the speed with which we can address requests,"
Tomak says. "Each time we use the software, we find new
ways of doing things, and we are more and more impressed
by the speed at which it churns out data and models."
Moving Forward
"With the extra time, the team has moved from being reactio nary to proactive, meaning they can examine more data,
spend quality time analyzing , and become internal consultants w ho provide more insight behind the data," he says.
"This w ill be important to su pporting the strategy and driving
the next generation of Macy's.com."
As competitio n increases in the online reta iling world,
To mak says there is a push toward generating more accurate,
real-time decisions about customer preferences. The ability
to gain customer insight across channels is a critical part of
improving customer satisfactio n and revenues, and Macys.
com uses SAS Ente rprise Miner to validate and guide the
site's cross- and up-sell offer algorithms.
Source: www.sas.com/success/macy.html.
References
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CHAPTER
Techniques for Predictive Modeling
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Understand the concept and definitions
of artificial neural networks (ANN)
• Learn the advantages and disadvantages
of SVM compared to ANN
• Learn the different types of ANN
architectures
• Understand the concept and formulation
of k-nearest neighbor algorithm (kNN )
• Knowhow learning happens in ANN
• Learn the advantages and disadvantages
of kNN compared to ANN and SVM
• Understand the concept and structure of
support vector machines (SVM)
redictive modeling is perhaps the most commonly practiced branch in data mining. It
allows decision makers to estimate what the future holds by means of learning from
the past. In this chapter, we study the internal structures, capabilities/ limitations,
and applications of the most popular predictive modeling techniques, such as artificial
neural networks, support vector machines, and k-nearest neighbor. These techniques
are capable of addressing both classification- and regression-type prediction problems.
Often, they are applied to complex prediction problems where other techniques are not
capable of producing satisfactory results. In addition to these three (that are covered in
this chapter), other notable prediction modeling techniques include regression (linear or
nonlinear), logistic regression (for classification-type prediction problems), nai:ve Bayes
(probabilistically oriented classification modeling), and different types of decision trees
(covered in Chapter 5).
P
6.1 Opening Vignette: Predictive Modeling Helps Better Understand and Manage
Complex Medical Procedures 244
6.2 Basic Concepts of Neural Networks 247
6.3 Developing Neural Network-Based Systems 258
6.4 Illuminating the Black Box of ANN with Sensitivity Analysis
262
243
244
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
6.5 Support Vector Machines 265
6.6 A Process-Based Approach to the Use of SVM
6. 7 Nearest Neighbor Method for Prediction 275
6.1
273
OPENING VIGNETTE: Predictive Modeling Helps Better
Understand and Manage Complex Medical Procedures
Healthcare has become one of the most important issues to have a direct impact
on quality of life in the United States and around the world. While the demand for
healthcare services is increasing because of the aging population, the supply side is
having problems keeping up with the level and quality of service. In order to close the
gap, healthcare systems ought to significantly improve their operational effectiveness
and efficiency. Effectiveness (doing the right thing, such as diagnosing and treating
accurately) and efficiency (doing it the right way, such as using the least amount
of resources and time) are the two fundamental pillars upon which the healthcare
system can be revived. A promising way to improve healthcare is to take advantage of predictive modeling techniques along with large and feature-rich data sources
(true reflections of medical and healthcare experiences) to support accurate and timely
decision making.
According to the American Heart Association, cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the
underlying cause for over 20 percent of deaths in the United States. Since 1900, CVD has
been the number-one killer every year except 1918, which was the year of the great flu
pandemic. CVD kills more people than the next four leading causes of deaths combined:
cancer, chronic lower respiratory disease, accidents, and diabetes mellitus. Out of all
CVD deaths, more than half are attributed to coronary diseases. Not only does CVD take
a huge toll on the personal health and well-being of the population, but it is also a great
drain on the healthcare resources in the Unites States and elsewhere in the world. The
direct and indirect costs associated with CVD for a year are estimated to be in excess of
$500 billion. A common surgical procedure to cure a large variant of CVD is called coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG). Even though the cost of a CABG surgery depends on
the patient and service provider- related factors, the average rate is between $50,000 and
$100,000 in the United States. As an illustrative example, Deleo et al. (2012) carried out
an analytics study where they used various predictive modeling methods to predict the
outcome of a CABG and applied an information fusion-based sensitivity analysis on the
trained models to better understand the importance of the prognostic factors. The main
goal was to illustrate that predictive and explanatory analysis of large and feature-rich
data sets provides invaluable information to make more efficient and effective decisions
in healthcare.
RESEARCH METHOD
Figure 6.1 shows the model development and testing process used by Deleo et al. They
employed four different types of prediction models (artificial neural networks, support
vector machines, and two types of decision trees, CS and CART), and went through a
large number of experimental runs to calibrate the modeling parameters for each model
type. Once the models were developed, they went on the text data set. Finally, the
trained models were exposed to a sensitivity analysis procedure where the contribution
of the variables was measured. Table 6.1 shows the test results for the four different types
of prediction models.
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
ANN
245
Testing the
model
Training and
calibrating the
model
Conducting
sensitivity
analysis
Partitioned data
(training, testing
and validation)
SVM
'\
Testing the
model
Training and
calibrating the
model
Conducting
sensitivity
analysis
Tabulated Model
Testing Results
[Accuracy,
Sensitivity, and
Specificity)
-,I
i
Preprocessed
Data
(in Excel format)
DT/C5
Testing the
model
,,....
Training and
calibrating the
model
I
Conducting
sensitivity
analysis
Partitioned data
(training, testing,
and validation)
OT/CART
I
I
I
I
Integrated [fused)
Sensitivity
Analysis Results
_,, ~
Testing the
model
Training and
calibrating the
model
Conducting
sensitivity
analysis
,,
~--------Input--------~~--------- Processing---------~~--------- Output ---------:,..FIGURE 6.1
A Process Map for Training and Testing of the Four Predictive Models.
246
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
TABLE 6.1
Prediction Accuracy Results for All Four Model Types
Based on the Test Data Set
Confusion Matrices2
Model Type 1
ANN
SVM
cs
CART
Pos (1)
Neg (O)
Pos (1)
749
230
Neg (0)
265
714
Pos (1)
876
103
Neg (0)
137
842
Pos (1)
876
103
Neg (O)
137
842
Pos (1)
660
319
Neg (0)
246
733
Accuracy3
Sensitivity3
Specificity3
74.72%
76.5 1%
72 .93%
87 .74%
89.48%
86.01 %
79.62%
80.29%
78.96%
71 .15%
67.42%
74.87%
1
Acronyms for model types: ANN: Artificial Neural Networks; SVM: Support Ve ctor Machines; C5: A popular
decision tree algorithm; CART: Classificatio n a nd Regressio n Trees.
2
Prediction results for the test data samples are shown in a confusion matrix, where the rows re present the
actuals and columns represe nt the pred icted cases.
3Accuracy, Se nsitivity, and Specificity are the three pe rformance measures that were used in comparing the
four prediction mode ls.
RESULTS
In this study, they showed the power of data mining in predicting the outcome and in
analyzing the prognostic factors of complex medical procedures su ch as CABG surgery.
They showed that using a number of prediction methods (as opposed to only one) in
a competitive experimental setting has the potential to p rodu ce better predictive as
well as explanatory results. Among the four methods that they used, SVMs produced
the best results with prediction accuracy of 88 percent on the test data sample. The
informatio n fusion-based sensitiv ity analysis revealed the ranked importance of the
independent variables. Some of the top variables identified in this an alysis having to
overlap w ith the most important variables identified in previously conducted clinical
and biological studies confirms the validity and effectiveness of the proposed data mining methodology.
From the managerial standpoint, clinical decision support systems that use the
outcome of data mining studies (such as the o nes presented in this case study) a re not
meant to replace healthcare managers and/ or medical professionals. Rather, they intend
to support them in making accurate and timely decisio ns to optimally allocate resources
in order to increase the quantity and quality of medical services. There still is a lo ng way
to go before we can see these decision aids being used extensively in healthcare practices. Among others, there are behavioral, ethical, and political reasons for this resistance
to adoptio n. Maybe the need and the government incentives for better healthcare systems
will expedite the adoption.
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. Why is it important to study medical procedures? What is the value in predicting
outcomes?
2. What factors do you think are the most important in better understanding and
managing healthcare? Consider both managerial and clinical aspects of healthcare.
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
3. What would be the impact of predictive modeling on healthcare and medicine?
Can predictive modeling replace medical or managerial personnel?
4. What were the outcomes of the study? Who can use these results? How can the
results be implemented?
5. Search the Internet to locate two additional cases where predictive modeling is used
to understand and manage complex medical procedures.
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETTE
As you will see in this chapter, predictive modeling techniques can be applied to a
w ide range of problem areas, from standard business problems of assessing customer
needs to understanding and enhancing efficiency of production processes to improving
healthcare and medicine. This vignette illustrates an innovative application of predictive
modeling to better predict, understand, and manage coronary bypass grafting procedures. As the results indicate, these sophisticated predictive modeling techniques
are capable of predicting and explaining such complex phenomena. Evidence-based
medicine is a relatively new term coined in the healthcare arena, where the main idea
is to dig deep into past experiences to discover new and useful knowledge to improve
medical and manage rial procedures in healthcare. As we all know, healthcare needs
all the help that it can get. Compared to traditional research, which is clinical and
biological in nature, data-driven studies provide an out-of-the-box view to medicine
and management of medical systems.
Sources: D. Delen, A. Oztekin, and L. Tomak, "An Analytic Approach to Better Understanding and Management
of Corona1y Surgeries," Decision Support Systems, Vol. 52, No. 3, 2012, pp. 698-705; and American Heart
Association, "Heart Disease and Stroke Statistics-2012 Update," heart.org (accessed February 2013).
6.2
BASIC CONCEPTS OF NEURAL NETWORKS
Neural networks represent a brain metaphor for information processing. These models
are biologically inspired rather than an exact replica of how the brain actually functions.
Neural networks have been shown to be very promising systems in many forecasting
and business classification applications due to their ability to "learn" from the data,
their nonparametric nature (i.e., no rigid assumptions), and their ability to generalize.
Neural computing refers to a pattern-recognition methodology for machine learning.
The resulting model from neural computing is often called an artificial neural network
(ANN) or a neural network. Neural networks have been used in many business
applications for pattern recognition, forecasting, prediction, and classification. Neural
network computing is a key component of any data mining toolkit. Applications of neural
networks abound in finance, marketing, manufacturing, operations, information systems,
and so on. Therefore, we devote this chapter to developing a better understanding of
neural network models, methods, and applications.
The human brain possesses bewildering capabilities for information processing and
problem solving that modern computers cannot compete with in many asp ects. It has
been postulated that a model or a system that is enlightened and supported by the results
from brain research , w ith a structure similar to that of biological neural networks, could
exhibit similar intelligent functionality. Based o n this bottom-up approach , ANN (also
known as connectionist models, parallel distributed processing models, neuromorphic
systems, or simply neural networks) have been developed as biologically inspired and
plausible models for various tasks.
247
248 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Biological neural networks are composed of many massively interconnected
neurons. Each neuron possesses axons and dendrites, fingerlike projections that enable
the neuron to communicate with its neighboring neurons by transmitting and receiving
electrical and chemical signals. More or less resembling the structure of their biological
counterparts, ANN are composed of interconnected, simple processing e lements called
artificial neurons. When processing information, the processing elements in an ANN
operate concurrently and collectively, similar to biological neurons. ANN possess some
desirable traits similar to those of biological neural networks, such as the abilities to learn,
to self-organize, and to support fault tolerance.
Coming along a winding journey, ANN have been investigated by researchers
for more than half a century. The formal study of ANN began with the pioneering
work of McCulloch and Pitts in 1943. Inspired by the results of biological experiments
and observations, McCulloch and Pitts (1943) introduced a simple model of a bina1y
artificial neuron that captured some of the functions of biological neurons. Using
information-processing machines to model the brain, McCulloch and Pitts built their
neural network model using a large number of interconnecte d artificial binary neurons.
From these beginnings, neural network research became quite popular in the late
1950s and early 1960s. After a thorough analysis of an early neural network model
(called the perceptron, w hich used no hidden layer) as well as a pessimistic evaluation of the research potential by Minsky and Papert in 1969, interest in neural networks
diminished.
During the past two decades, there has been an exciting resurgence in ANN studies
due to the introduction of new network topologies, new activation functions, and new
learning algorithms, as well as progress in neuroscience and cognitive science. Advances
in theory and methodology have overcome many of the obstacles that hindered neural
network research a few decades ago. Evidenced by the appealing results of numerous
studies, neural networks are gaining in acceptance and popularity. In addition, the desirable features in neural information processing make neural networks attractive for solving
complex problems. ANN have been applied to numerous complex problems in a variety
of applicatio n settings. The successful use of neural network applications has inspired
renewed interest from industry and business.
Biological and Artificial Neural Networks
The human brain is composed of special cells called neurons. These cells do not die
and replenish when a person is injured (all other cells reproduce to replace themselves and then die). This phenomenon may explain w hy humans retain information
for an extended period of time an d start to lose it when they get old- as the brain cells
gradually start to die. Information storage spans sets of neurons. The brain has anywhere
from 50 billion to 150 billion neurons, of which there are more than 100 different kinds.
Neurons are partitioned into groups called networks. Each network contains several
thousand highly interconnected neurons. Thus, the brain can be viewed as a collection
of neural networks.
The ability to learn and to react to changes in our environment requires intelligence.
The brain and the central nervous system control thinking and intelligent behavior.
People who suffer brain damage have difficulty learning and reacting to changing
environme nts. Even so, undamaged parts of the brain can often compensate w ith new
learning.
A portion of a network composed of two cells is shown in Figure 6.2. The cell itself
includes a nucleus (the central processing portion of the neuron). To the left of cell 1,
the dendrites provide input signals to the cell. To the right, the axon sends output signals
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
Synapse
Dendrites
/
Axon
Soma
FIGURE 6.2
Portion of a Biological Neural Network: Two Interconnected Cells/Neurons.
to cell 2 via the axon te rminals. These axon te rminals merge with the dendrites of cell 2.
Signals can be transmitted unchanged, or they can be altered by synapses. A synapse is
able to increase or decrease the strength of the connection between neurons and cause
excitation or inhibition of a subsequent neuron. This is how information is stored in the
neural networks.
An ANN emulates a biological n eural network. Neural computing actually u ses a
very limited set of concepts from biological neural systems (see Technology Insights
6.1). It is more of an analogy to the human brain than an accurate model of it. Neural
concepts usually are implemented as software simulations of the massively parallel
processes involved in processing interconnected elements (also called artificial neurons, or neurodes) in a network architecture. The artificial neuron receives inputs
analogous to the e lectroche mical impulses that dendrites of biological neurons receive
from other neurons. The output of the artificial neuron corresponds to signals sent
from a biological neuron over its axon. These artificial signals can be changed by
weights in a manne r similar to the physical changes that occur in the synapses (see
Figure 6.3).
Several ANN paradigms have been proposed for applications in a variety of problem domains. Perhaps the easiest way to differentiate among the various neural models
is on the basis of how they structurally emulate the human brain, the way they process
information, and how they learn to perform their designated tasks.
Inputs
X1 -
Weights
Output
-t-l---i
Neuron (or PE)
f[SJ
n
S = ~ X;W;
•
•
FIGURE 6.3
i-1
Summation
Transfer
Function
Processing Information in an Artificial Neuron.
249
250 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 6.1 The Relationship Between Biological
and Artificial Neural Networks
The following list shows some of the relationships between biological and anificial networks.
Biological
Artificial
Soma
Node
Dendrites
Input
Axon
Output
Synapse
Weight
Slow
Fast
9
Many neurons (10 )
Few neurons (a dozen to hundreds of thousands)
Sources, L. Medsker and J. Liebowitz, Design and Development ofBcpe11 Systems and
Neural Networks, Macmillan , New York, 1994, p. 163; and F. Zahedi, Intelligent Systems
for Business, bpe,t Systems w ith Neural Networks, Wadsworth, Belmont, CA, 1993.
Because they are biologically inspired, the main processing elements of a neural
network are individual neurons, analogous to the brain's neurons. These artificial neurons
receive the information from other neurons or external input stimuli, perform a transformation on the inputs, and then pass on the transformed information to other neurons or
external outputs. This is similar to how it is currently thought that the human brain works.
Passing information from neuron to neuron can be thought of as a way to activate, or
trigger, a response from certain neurons based on the information or stimulus received.
How information is processed by a neural network is inherently a function of its
structure. Neural networks can have one or more layers of neurons. These neurons can
be highly or fully interconnected, or only certain layers can be connected. Connections
between neurons have an associated weight. In essence, the "knowledge" possessed by
the network is encapsulated in these interconnection weights. Each neuron calculates a
weighted sum of the incoming neuron values, transforms this input, and passes on its
neural value as the input to subsequent neurons. Typically, although not always, this
input/ output transformation process at the individual neuron level is performed in a nonlinear fashion.
Application Case 6. 1 provides an interesting example of the use of neural networks
as a prediction tool in the mining industry.
Application Case 6.1
Neural Networks Are Helping to Save Lives in the Mining Industry
In the mining industry, most of the underground
injuries and fatalities are due to rock falls (i.e., fall
of hanging wall/roof). The method that has been
used for many years in the mines when determining the integrity of the hanging wall is to tap the
hanging wall with a sounding bar and listen to the
sound emitted. An experienced miner can differentiate an intact/solid hanging wall from a detached/
loose hanging wall by the sound that is emitted. This
method is subjective. The Council for Scientific and
Industrial Research (CSIR) in South Africa has developed a device that assists any miner in making an
objective decision when determining the integrity of
the hanging wall. A trained neural network model is
embedded into the device. The device then records
the sound emitted when a hanging wall is tapped.
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
The sound is then preprocessed before being input
into a trained neural network model, and the trained
model classifies the hanging wall as either intact or
detached.
Mr. Teboho Nyareli, working as a research
engineer at CSIR, who holds a master's degree in
e lectronic e ngineering from the University of Cape
Town in South Africa, used NeuroSolutions, a
popular artificial neural network modeling software
developed by NeuroDimensions, Inc., to develop
the classification type prediction models. The multilayer perceptron-type ANN architecture that he
built achieved better than 70 percent prediction
accuracy on the hold-out sample. Currently, the
prototype system is undergoing a final set of tests
before deploying it as a decision aid, followed by
the commercialization phase. The following figure
shows a snapshot of NeuroSolution 's model building
platform.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How did neural networks help save lives in the
mining industry?
2. What were the challenges, the proposed solution, and the obtained results?
Source: NeuroSo lutio ns customer success story, neurosolutions.com/resources/nyareli.html (accessed February 2013).
Elements of ANN
A neural network is composed of processing elements that are organized in different
ways to form the network's structure. The basic processing unit is the neuron. A number
of neurons are then organized into a n etwork. Neurons can be organized in a number of
different ways; these various network patterns are referred to as topologies. One popular
approach, known as the feedforward-backpropagation paradigm (or simply backpropagation), allows all neurons to link the output in one layer to the input of the next layer,
but it does not allow any feedback linkage (Haykin, 2009). Backpropagation is the most
commonly used network paradigm.
The processing elements (PE) of an ANN are artificial neurons. Each neuron receives inputs, processes them, and delivers a single output, as shown
in Figure 6.3. The input can be raw input data or the output of other processing e lements.
The output can be the final result (e.g ., 1 means yes, 0 means no), or it can be input to
other neurons.
PROCESSING ELEMENTS
251
252 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
X1
X
/
(PE)
Transfer
Sum
Function
~ W eighted
2 ~
X3 /
(:E)
( f)
I
Input Layer
FIGURE 6.4 Neural Network with One Hidden Layer.
NETWORK STRUCTURE Each ANN is composed of a collectio n of neurons that are
grouped into layers. A typical structure is shown in Figure 6.4. Note the three layers:
input, intermediate (called the hidden layer), and output. A hidden layer is a layer of
neurons that takes input from the previous layer and converts those inputs into o utputs
for further processing. Several hidden layers can be placed between the input and output
layers, although it is common to use only o ne hidden layer. In that case, the hidde n layer
simply converts inputs into a nonlinear combinatio n and p asses the transforme d inputs
to the output layer. The most common interpretation of the hidden layer is as a featureextraction mechanism ; that is, the hidden layer converts the original inputs in the proble m into a highe r-level combinatio n of such inputs.
Like a biological network, an ANN can be organized in several different ways (i.e. ,
topologies o r architectures); that is, the neurons can be interconnected in different ways.
Whe n info rmation is processe d , many of the processing e lements perform their computations at the same time. This parallel processing resembles the way the brain works, and
it differs from the serial processing of conventional computing.
Network Information Processing
Once the structure of a neural network is determine d , informatio n can be processed. We
now present the majo r concepts re late d to network info rmatio n processing.
INPUT Each input corresp onds to a single attribute . Fo r example, if the p roblem is to
decide o n approval o r disapproval of a loan , attributes could include the applicant's
income level, age, and home ownership status. The numeric value, o r representatio n,
of an attribute is the input to the network. Several typ es of data, such as text, pictures,
and voice, can be use d as inputs. Preprocessing may be needed to convert the data into
meaningful inputs from symbolic data o r to scale the data.
OUTPUTS The output of a network contains the solutio n to a problem. For exam ple, in
the case of a loan application , the output can be yes or no. The ANN assigns nu meric
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
values to the output, such as 1 for "yes" and O for "no. " The purpose of the network is to
compute the output values. Often, postprocessing of the output is required because some
networks u se two outputs: one for "yes" and another for "no." It is common to round the
outputs to the nearest O or 1.
Connection weights are the key e leme nts of an ANN. They
express the relative strength (or mathematical value) of the input data or the many connections that transfer data from layer to layer. In other words, weights express the relative
importance of each input to a processing e le me nt and, ultimately, the output. Weights
are crucial in that they store learned patterns of information. It is through repeated adjustments of weights that a network learns.
CONNECTION WEIGHTS
The summation function computes the weighted sums of all
the input elements entering each processing element. A summation functio n multiplies
each input value by its weight and to tals the values for a weighted sum Y The formula
for n inputs in one processing element (see Figure 6.Sa) is:
SUMMATION FUNCTION
n
Y= LX;W,:
i= l
Fo r the jth neuron of several processing neurons in a layer (see Figure 6.5b), the
formula is:
n
1:t = LXi%
i= l
(a) Single Neuron
(bl Multiple Neurons
X1
y
PE = Processing Element
(or neuron)
Y1 = X1 W 1 1 + X2W2 1
Y2 = X1 W 12 + X2W22
Y3 = X2W23
FIGURE 6.5
Summation Function for (a) a Single Neuron and (b) Several Neurons.
253
254
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
The summation function computes the internal stimulation , or activation level, of the neuron. Based on this level, the neuron may or
may not produce an output. The relationship between the internal activation level and
the output can be linear or no nlinear. The relationship is expressed by one of several
types of transformation (transfer) functions. The transformation function combines
(i.e., adds up) the inputs coming into a neuron from other neurons/ sources and then produces an output based on the transformation function. Selection of the specific function
affects the network's operation. The sigmoid (logical activation) function (or sigmoid
tranifer function) is an S-shaped transfer function in the range of Oto 1, and it is a popular as well as useful nonlinear transfer function:
TRANSFORMATION (TRANSFER) FUNCTION
y; -
1
-----
T - (1 + e-Y)
where Y7 is the transformed (i.e., normalized) valu e of Y (see Figure 6.6).
The transformation modifies the output levels to reasonable values (typically
between O and 1). This transformation is performed before the output reaches the
next level. Without such a transformation, the value of the output becomes very large,
especially when there are several layers of neurons. Sometimes a threshold value is used
instead of a transformation function. A threshold value is a hurdle value for the output
of a neuron to trigger the next level of neurons. If an output value is smaller than the
threshold value, it will not be passed to the next level of neurons. For example, any
value of 0.5 or less becomes 0, and any value above 0.5 becomes 1. A transformation can
occur at the output of each processing element, or it can be performed only at the final
output nodes.
HIDDEN LAYERS Complex practical applications require o ne or more hidden layers
between the input and o utput neurons and a correspondingly large number of weights.
Many commercial ANN include three and sometimes up to five layers, with each containing 10 to 1,000 processing elements. Some experimental ANN use millions of processing elements. Because each layer increases the training effort exponentially an d also
increases the computatio n required, the use of more than three hidden layers is rare in
most commercial systems.
Neural Network Architectures
There are several neural network architectures (for specifics of models and/ or algorithms, see Haykin, 2009). The most common ones include feedforward (multilayer
Summation function: Y
= 3(0.2) + 1 (0.4) + 2(0.1 J = 1.2
Transfer function : Yr= 1 /(1 + e - 1 2 J = 0. 77
Processing
element (PE)
FIGURE 6.6
Example of ANN Transfer Function.
Y = 1 .2
Yr= 0.77
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
Input 1
Input 2
Input 3
Input 4
* H indicates a "hidden" neuron without a target output
FIGURE 6.7
A Recurrent Neural Network Architecture.
perceptron with backpropagation), associative memory, recurrent networks, Kohonen's
self-organizing feature maps, and Hopfield networks. The generic architecture of a
feedforward network architecture is shown in Figure 6.4, where the information flows
unidirectionally from input layer to hidden layers to output layer. In contrast, Figure 6.7
shows a pictorial representation of a recurrent neural network architecture, where the
connections between the layers are not unidirectional; rather, there are many connections
in every direction between the layers and neurons, creating a complex connection structure . Many experts believe this better mimics the way biological neurons are structured
in the human brain.
KOHONEN'S SELF-ORGANIZING FEATURE MAPS First introduced by the Finnish professor Teuvo Kohonen, Kohonen's self-organizing feature maps (Kohonen networks
or SOM, in short) provide a way to represent multidimensional data in much lower
dimensional spaces, usually one or two dimensions. One of the most interesting aspects
of SOM is that they learn to classify data without supervision (i.e., there is no output vector). Remember, in supervised learning techniques, such as backpropagation, the training
data consists of vector pairs-an input vector and a target vector. Because of its selforganizing capability, SOM are commonly used for clustering tasks where a group of
cases are assigned an arbitrary number of naturals groups. Figure 6.8a illustrates a very
small Kohonen network of 4 x 4 nodes connected to the input layer (with three inputs),
representing a two-dimensional vector.
HOPFIELD NETWORKS The Hopfield network is another interesting neural network
architecture, first introduced by John Hopfield (1982). Hopfield demonstrated in a series
of research articles in the early 1980s how highly interconnected networks of nonlinear
neurons can be extremely effective in solving complex computational problems. These
networks were shown to provide novel and quick solutions to a family of problems stated
in terms of a desired objective subject to a number of constraints (i.e., constraint optimization problems). One of the major advantages of Hopfield neural networks is the fact
that their structure can be realized on an electronic circuit board, possibly on a VLSI Cvery
large-scale integration) circuit, to be used as an online solver with a p arallel-distributed
255
256
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
IN PUT
0
Input 1
u
T
p
u
Input 2
T
J
Input 3
[al Kohonen Network [SOM]
FIGURE 6.8
[bl Hopfield Network
Graphical Depiction of Kohonen and Hopfield ANN Structures.
process. Architecturally, a general Hopfield network is represented as a single large layer
of neurons with total interconnectivity; that is, each neuron is connected to every other
neuron w ithin the network (see Figure 6.Sb).
Ultimately, the architecture of a neural network model is driven by the task it is
intended to carry out. For instance , neural network models have been used as classifiers,
as forecasting tools, as customer segmentation mechanisms, and as general optimizers.
As shown later in this chapter, neural network classifiers are typically multilayer models in which information is passed from one layer to the next, with the ultimate goal of
mapping an input to the network to a specific category, as identified by an output of the
network. A neural model used as an optimizer, in contrast, can be a single layer of neurons, highly interconnected, and can compute neuron values iteratively until the model
converges to a stable state. This stable state represents an optimal solution to the problem
under analysis.
Application Case 6.2 summarizes the use of predictive modeling (e.g. , neural networks) in addressing several changing problems in the electric power industry.
Application Case 6.2
Predictive Modeling Is Powering the Power Generators
The electrical power industry produces and delivers
electric energy (electricity or power) to both residential and business customers, wherever and whenever they need it. Electricity can be generated from
a multitude of sources. Most often, electricity is produced at a power station using electromechanical
generators that are driven by heat engines fueled by
chemical combustion (by burning coal, petroleum, or
natural gas) or nuclear fusion (by a nuclear reactor).
Generation of electricity can also be accomplished
by other means, such as kinetic energy (through falling/flowing water or wind that activates turbines),
solar energy (through the energy emitted by sun,
either light or heat), or geothermal energy (through
the steam or hot water coming from deep layers of
the earth). Once generated, the electric energy is distributed through a power grid infrastructure.
Even though some energy-generation methods
are favored over others, all forms of electricity generation have positive and negative aspects. Some are
environmentally favored but are economically unjustifiable; others are economically superior but environmentally prohibitive. In a market economy, the
options with fewer overall costs are generally chosen
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
above all other sources. It is not clear yet which form
can best meet the necessary demand for electricity
without permanently damaging the environment.
Current trends indicate that increasing the shares of
renewable energy and distributed generation from
mixed sources has the promise of reducing/balancing environmental and economic risks.
The electrical power industry is a highly regulated,
complex business endeavor. There are four distinct
roles that companies choose to participate in: power
producers, transmitters, distributers, and retailers.
Connecting all of the producers to all of the customers
is accomplished through a complex structure, called
the power grid. Altl10ugh all aspects of the electricity
industry are witnessing stiff competition, power generators are perhaps the ones getting the lion's share
of it. To be competitive, producers of power need to
maximize the use of their variety of resources by making the right decisions at the right rime.
StatSoft, one of the fastest growing providers of customized analytics solutions, developed
integrated decision support tools for power generators. Leveraging the data that comes from the
production process, these data mining-driven software tools help technicians and managers rapidly
optimize the process parameters maximize the
power output while minimizing the risk of adverse
effects. Following are a few examples of what these
advanced analytics tools, which include ANN and
SVM, can accomplish for power generators.
• Optimize Operation Parameters
Problem: A coal-burning 300 MW multicyclone unit required optimization for consistent high flame temperatures to avoid forming
slag and burning excess fuel oil.
Solution: Using StatSoft's predictive modeling tools (along with 12 months of 3-minute
historical data), optimized control parameter
settings for stoichiometric ratios, coal flows,
primary air, tertiary air, and split secondary air
damper flows were identified and imple me nted.
Results: After optimizing the control parameters, flame temperatures showed strong
responses, resulting in cleaner combustion for
higher and more stable flame temperatures.
• Predict Problems Before They Happen
Problem: A 400 MW coal-fired DRB-4Z
burner required optimization for consistent and
robust low NOx operations to avoid excursions
257
and expensive downtime. Identify root causes
of ammonia slip in a selective noncatalytic
reduction process for NOx reduction.
Solution: Apply predictive analytics m ethodologies (along with historical process data) to
predict and control variability; then target processes for better performance, thereby reducing both average NOx and variability.
Results: Optimized settings for combinations
of control parameters resulted in consistently
lower NOx emissions with less variability (and
no excursions) over continued operations at
low load, including predicting failures or unexpected maintenance issues.
• Reduce Emission {NOx, CO}
Problem: While NOx emissions for higher
loads were within acceptable ranges, a 400 MW
coal-fired DRB-4Z burner was not optimized
for low-NOx operations under low load
(50-175 MW).
Solution: Using data-driven predictive modeling technologies with historical data, optimized parameter settings for changes to airflow
were identified, resulting in a set of specific,
achievable input parameter ranges that were
easily implemented into the existing DCS (digital control system).
Results: After optimization, NOx emissions
under low-load operations were comparable to
NOx emissions unde r higher loads.
As these specific examples illustrate, there are
numerous opportunities for advanced analytics to
make a significant contribution to the power industry. Using data and predictive models could help
decision makers get the best efficiency from their
production system while minimizing the impact on
the environment.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. What are the key environmental concerns in the
electric power industry?
2. What are the main application areas for predictive modeling in the electric power industry?
3. How was predictive modeling used to address
a variety of problems in the electric power
industry?
Source: StatSoft, Success Sto ries, power.statsoft.com/files/
statsoft-powersolutions.pdf (accessed February 2013) .
258 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
SECTION 6.2 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is an ANN1
2. Explain the following terms: neuron, axon, and synapse.
3. How do weights function in an ANN?
4. What is the role of the summation and transformation function?
5. What are the most common ANN architectures? How do they differ from each other?
6.3
DEVELOPING NEURAL NETWORK-BASED SYSTEMS
Although the development process of ANN is similar to the structured design methodologies of traditional computer-based information systems, some phases are unique or have
some unique aspects. In the process described here, we assume that the preliminary steps
of system development, such as determining informatio n requirements, conducting a feasibility an alysis, and gaining a champio n in top management for the project, have been
completed successfully. Such steps are generic to any information system.
As shown in Figure 6.9, the development process for an ANN application includes
nine steps. In step 1, the data to be used for training and testing the network are collected. Important consideratio ns are that the particular problem is amenable to a neural
network solution a nd that adequate data exist and can be obtained. In step 2, training
data must be identified, and a plan must be made for testing the performance of the
network.
In steps 3 and 4, a network architecture and a learning method are selected. The
availability of a particular development tool or the capabilities of the development personnel may determine the type of neural network to be constructed. Also, certain problem
types have demonstrated high success rates with certain configurations (e.g., multilayer
feedforward neural networks for bankruptcy prediction [Altman (1968), Wilson and Sharda
(1994), and Olson et al. (2012)]). Important considerations are the exact number of neurons and the number of layers. Some packages use genetic algorithms to select the network design.
There are several parameters for tuning the network to the desired learningperformance level. Part of the process in step 5 is the initialization of the network weights
and parameters, followed by the modification of the parameters as training-performance
feedback is received. Often, the initial values are important in determining the efficiency
and length of training. Some methods change the parameters during training to enhance
performance.
Step 6 transforms the application data into the type and format required by the
neural network. This may require writing software to preprocess the data or performing
these operatio ns directly in an ANN package. Data storage and manipulation techniques
and processes must be designed for convenie ntly and efficiently retraining the neural
network, when needed. The application data representation and ordering often influence
the efficiency and possibly the accuracy of the results.
In steps 7 and 8, training and testing are conducted iteratively by presenting input
and desired or known output data to the network. The network computes the outputs
and adjusts the weights until the computed outputs are within an acceptable tolerance
of the known outputs for the input cases. The desired outputs and their relationships to
input data are derived from historical data (i.e., a portion of the data collected in step 1).
In step 9, a stable set of weights is obtained. Now the network can reproduce the
desired outputs, given inputs such as those in the training set. The network is ready for
use as a stand-alone system or as part of another software system where new input data
will be presented to it and its output will be a recommended decision.
In the fo llowing sectio ns, we examine these steps in more detail.
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
Step
Collect, organize, and
format the data
- - -- - - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - ->Get more data;
reformat data
Separate data
- - -- - - -- - - - -- - - - -- - - ->- into training, validation,
2
Re-separate data
into subsets
and testing sets
.. _____________________.,.
Decide on a network
architecture
and structure
3
Select a
learning algorithm
4
' Change network
architecture
',. -------------------' Change learning
algorithm
-•
:
Set network parameters
·- -- - - • - - - - -- - - - -- - - ·>- and initialize their values
: Change network
5
parameters
Initialize weights
and start training
(and validation)
6
Stop training , freeze
the network weights
7
Test the trained network
8
Deploy the network
for use on unknown
new cases
g
• - -- - - - -- - - -- - - - -- - - - ->Reset and restart
the training
FIGURE 6.9
Development Process of an ANN Model.
The General ANN Learning Process
In supervised learning, the learning process is inductive; that is, connection weights
are derived from existing cases. The usual process of learning involves three tasks (see
Figure 6.10):
1 . Compute temporary outputs.
2. Compare outputs with desired targets.
3. Adjust the weights and repeat the process.
259
260 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Compute
output
Adjust
weights
No
Stop
learning
FIGURE 6.10
Supervised Learning Process of an ANN.
When existing o utputs are available for comparison , the learning process staits by
setting the connection weights. These are set via rules or at rando m. The difference
between the actual output (Yor Yr) and the desired output (Z) for a given set of inputs is
an error called delta (in calculus, the Greek symbol delta, l'i, means "difference").
The objective is to minimize delta (i.e., reduce it to O if possible), w hich is do ne by
adjusting the network's weights. The key is to change the weights in the right direction,
making changes that reduce delta (i.e., e rror). We will show how this is done later.
Information processing w ith an ANN consists of attempting to recognize patterns
of activities (i.e ., p atte rn recognitio n) . During the learning stages, the interconnection
weights change in response to training data presented to the system.
Different ANN compute delta in different ways, depending on the learning algorithm being used. Hundreds of learning algorithms are available for various situatio ns
and configurations of ANN. Perhaps the one that is most commonly used and is easiest to
understand is backpropagation.
Backpropagation
Backpropagation (short for back-error propagation) is the most widely used supervised
learning algorithm in neural computing (Principe et al. , 2000). It is very easy to implement. A backpropagation network includes one or more hidden layers. This type of
network is considered feedforward because there are no interconnections between the
o utput of a processing ele ment and the input of a node in the same layer or in a preceding layer. Externally provided correct patterns are compared w ith the neural network's
output during (supervised) training, and feedback is used to adjust the weights until the
network has categorized all the tra ining patterns as correctly as possible (the error tolerance is set in advance).
Starting with the output layer, errors between the actu al and desired outputs are
u sed to correct the weights for the connections to the previous layer (see Figure 6.11) .
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
a(Z1 - Y1 )
error
~,
,,,,,,------------
x,
Neuron (or PE)
n
f(SJ
S = ~ X;\/11
Y=f(SJ
i- 1
Summation
FIGURE 6.11
Transfer
Function
Backpropagation of Error for a Single Neuron.
For any output neuron j, the error (delta)= (Z1 - Y;-) (df/ dx) , where Zand Y are the
desired and actual outputs, respectively. Using the sigmoid function,!= [1 + exp(- x)]- 1 ,
where x is proportional to the sum of the weighted inputs to the neuron, is an effective way to compute the output of a neuron in practice. With this function, the derivative of the sigmoid function d.fldx = J(l - f) and the error is a simple function of the
desired and actual outputs. The factor J(l - f) is the logistic function, which serves to
keep the error correction well bounded. The weights of each input to the jth neuron
are then changed in proportion to this calculated error. A more complicated expression
can be derived to work backward in a similar way from the output neurons through
the hidden layers to calculate the corrections to the associated weights of the inner
neurons. This complicated method is an iterative approach to solving a nonlinear optimization problem that is very similar in meaning to the one characterizing multiplelinear regression.
The learning algorithm includes the fo llowing procedures:
1. Initialize weights with random values and set other p arameters.
2. Read in the input vector and the desired output.
3. Compute the actual output via the calculations, working forward through the layers.
4. Compute the error.
5. Change the weights by working backward from the output layer through the hidden
layers.
This procedure is repeated for the e ntire set of input vectors until the desired
output and the actual output agree w ithin some predetermined tolerance. Given the
calculation requirements for one iteration, a large network can take a very long time to
train; therefore, in one variatio n , a set of cases is run forward and an aggregated error
is fed backward to speed up learning. Sometimes, depending on the initial random
weights and network parameters, the network does not converge to a satisfactory
pe rformance level. When this is the case, new random weights must be generated,
and the network parameters, or even its structure, may have to be modified before
another attempt is made. Current research is aimed at developing algorithms and using
parallel computers to improve this process. For example, genetic algorithms can be
used to guide the selection of the network parameters in order to maximize the desired
output. In fact, most commercial ANN software tools are now using GA to help users
"optimize" the network parameters. Technology Insights 6.2 discusses some of the most
popular neural network software and offers some Web links to more comprehensive
ANN-re lated software sites.
261
262 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
TECHNOLOGY INSIGHTS 6.2
ANN Software
Many tools are available for developing ne ural networks (see this book's Web site and the
resource lists at PC AI, pcai.com). Some of these tools function like software shells. They provide a set of standa rd architectures, learning algorithms, and parameters, along with the ability
to manipulate the data. Some development tools can suppo1t up to several dozen network paradigms and learning algorithms.
Neural network implementations are also available in most of the comprehe nsive data
mining tools, such as the SAS Enterprise Miner, IBM SPSS Modele r (formerly Clementine), and
Statistica Data Miner. Weka, RapidMiner, and KNIME are open source free data mining software
tools that include neural network capabilities. These free tools can be downloaded from their
respective Web sites; simple Inte rnet searches on the names of these tools should lead you
to the download pages. Also, most of the commercial software tools are available for download and use for evaluation purposes (usually, they are limited on time of availability and/ or
functionality).
Many specialized neural network tools enable the building and deployment of a neural
network model in practice. Any listing of such tools would be incomplete. Online resources such
as Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artificial_neural_network), Google's or Yahoo!'s
software directory, and the vendor listings on pcai.com are good places to locate the latest
informatio n on neural network software vendors. Some of the vendors that have been around
for a while and have reported industrial applications of their neural network software include
California Scie ntific (BrainMaker), NeuralWare, NeuroDimension Inc. , Ward Systems Group
(Neuroshell) , and Megaputer. Again, the list can never be complete.
Some ANN development tools are spreadsheet add-ins. Most can read spreadsheet, database, and text files. Some are freeware or shareware. Some ANN systems have been developed
in Java to run directly o n the Web and are accessible through a Web browser interface. Other
ANN products are designed to interface with expert systems as hybrid development products.
Developers may instead prefer to use more general programming languages, such as C++,
or a spreadsheet to program the model and perform the calculations. A variation on this is to
use a library of ANN routines. For example, hav.Software (hav.com) provides a library of C++
classes for implementing stand-alone or embedded feedforward, simple recurrent, and randomorder recurrent ne ural networks. Computational software such as MATLAB also includes neural
network-specific libraries.
SECTION 6.3 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. List the nine steps in conducting a neural network project.
2. What are some of the design parameters for developing a neural network?
3. How does backpropagation learning work?
4. Describe different types of neural network software available today.
5. How are neural networks implemented in practice when the training/testing is
complete?
6.4
ILLUMINATING THE BLACK BOX OF ANN
WITH SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS
Neural networks have been used as an effective tool for solving highly complex realworld problems in a wide range of application areas. Even though ANN have been
proven in many problem scenarios to be superior predictors and/or cluster identifiers
(compared to their traditional counterparts), in some applications there exists an additio nal need to know "how it does what it does. " ANN are typically thought of as b lack
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
boxes, capable of solving complex problems but lacking the explanation of their capabilities. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the "black-box" syndrome.
It is important to be able to explain a model's "inner being"; such an explanation
offers assurance that the network has been properly trained and will behave as desired
once deployed in a business intelligence environment. Such a need to "look under the
hood" might be attributable to a relatively small training set (as a result of the high cost of
data acquisition) or a very high liability in case of a system error. One example of such an
application is the deployment of airbags in automobiles. Here, both the cost of data acquisition (crashing cars) and the liability concerns (danger to human lives) are rather significant. Another representative example for the impo1tance of explanation is loan-application
processing. If an applicant is refused for a loan, he or she has the right to know why. Having
a prediction system that does a good job on differentiating good and bad applications may
not be sufficient if it does not also provide the justification of its predictions.
A variety of techniques has been proposed for analysis and evaluation of trained
neural networks. These techniques provide a clear interpretation of how a neural network
does what it does; that is, specifically how (and to what extent) the individual inputs
factor into the generation of specific network output. Sensitivity analysis has been the
front runner of the techniques proposed for shedding light into the "black-box" characterization of trained neural networks.
Sensitivity analysis is a method for extracting the cause-and-effect relationships
among the inputs and the outputs of a trained neural network model. In the process of
performing sensitivity analysis, the trained neural network's learning capability is disabled
so that the network weights are not affected. The basic procedure behind sensitivity
analysis is that the inputs to the network are systematically perturbed within the allowable value ranges and the corresponding change in the output is recorded for each and
every input variable (Principe et al., 2000). Figure 6.1 2 shows a graphical illustration of
this process. The first input is varied between its mean plus-and-minus a user-defined
number of standard deviations (or for categorical variables, all of its possible values
are used) while all other input variables are fixed at their respective means (or modes).
The network output is computed for a user-defined number of steps above and below
the mean. This process is repeated for each input. As a result, a report is generated to
summarize the variation of each output with respect to the variation in each input. The
generated rep01t often contains a column plot (along with numeric values presented on
the x-axis), reporting the relative sensitivity values for each input variable. A representative example of sensitivity analysis on ANN models is provided in Application Case 6.3.
Systematically
Perturbed
Inputs
Trained ANN
"the black box"
Observed
Change in
Outputs
c::::::::, '----7 -
FIGURE 6.12
A Figurative Illustration of Sensitivity Analysis on an ANN Model.
263
264 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 6.3
Sensitivity Analysis Reveals Injury Severity Factors in Traffic Accidents
According to the National Highway Traffic Safety
Administration, over 6 million traffic accidents claim
more than 41,000 lives each year in the United States.
Causes of accidents and relate d injury severity are
of special interest to traffic-safety resea rchers. Such
research is aimed not o nly at reducing the number of
accidents but also the severity of injury. One way to
accomplish the latter is to identify the most profound
facto rs that affect injury severity. Understanding the
circumstances under w hich d rive rs and passengers
are more like ly to be severely injured (or killed)
in an automo bile accident can help improve the
overall driving safety situatio n . Facto rs that po tentially elevate the risk of injury severity of vehicle
occupants in the event of an automotive accide nt
include demographic and/ or behavioral characteristics of the p erson (e.g ., age, gender, seatbelt usage,
use of drugs o r alco hol w hile driving), enviro nme ntal factors and/or roadway conditions at the time
of the accide nt (e.g., surface conditio ns, weather
o r light conditio ns, the direction of impact, vehicle
orientatio n in the crash , occurrence of a rollover), as
well as technical characteristics of the vehicle itself
(e.g., vehicle 's age, body type).
In an explorato1y data mining study, Delen
et a l. (2006) used a large sample of data- 30,358
police-re ported accident records obtained from the
General Estimates System of the Natio nal Highway
Traffic Safety Administratio n-to identify w hich
factors become increasingly more impo1tant in
escalating the p robability of inju1y severity during
a traffic crash. Accidents examined in this study
included a geographically representative samp le of
multiple-vehicle collision accidents, single-vehicle
fixed-object collisio ns, and single-vehicle noncollision (rollover) crashes.
Contrary to many of the previous studies
conducted in this domain, w hich h ave primarily u sed regressio n-type generalized linear models
w he re the functio nal re latio nships between injury
severity and crash-related factors are assume d to
be linear ( w hich is an oversimplification of the
reality in most real-world situations), Delen and his
colleagues decided to go in a differe nt direction .
Because ANN are known to be supe rior in capturing highly nonlinear complex relationships between
the p redictor variables (crash factors) and the target
variable (severity level of the injuries), they decide d
to use a series of ANN models to estimate the significance of the crash facto rs on the level of injury
severity sustained by the d river.
From a meth odological standpo int, they
fo llowed a two-ste p p rocess . In the fi rst step, they
d eve lop ed a series of prediction mod els (on e for
each injury severity level) to capture the in-depth
relatio nsh ips between th e crash-related factors
a nd a sp ecific level of injury severity. In the seco nd ste p , they conducted sen sitivity an alysis o n
the traine d ne ura l network models to ide n tify the
p rio ritized importance of crash-related facto rs as
they relate to d iffe rent inju ry severity levels. In
the formulatio n of the stud y, the five-class predictio n proble m was decomposed into a number
o f b inary classificatio n mode ls in o rder to obtain
the granularity of information nee ded to identify
the "true " cause-and-effect relatio nships between
the crash-re lated facto rs and differe nt levels of
injury severity.
The resu lts revealed con siderable differe n ces
amo ng the mode ls built for different injury severity
levels. This implies that the most influential factors
in p rediction models high ly dep e nd o n the level
of injury severity . For example, the study reveale d
that the variable seatbelt u se was the most importa nt determinant fo r pre dicting hig he r levels o f
injury severity (such as incapacitating inju ry o r
fatality), but it was o ne of the least significant
p redictors fo r lower levels of injury severity (such
as no n-incap acitating injury and mino r injury).
Ano ther inte resting finding involved gender: The
d rivers' gende r was a mo ng the sig nificant pre d ictors for lower levels of injury severity, but it was
n ot amo ng the significant factors for higher leve ls o f injury severity , indicating that more seriou s
injuries do not de pe nd o n the driver being a male
or a fema le. Yet a no the r interesting a nd somewhat
intuitive finding of the study indicated that age
becomes an increasingly more significant facto r as
the level of injmy severity increases, imp lying that
older people are mo re likely to incur severe injuries (and fa talities) in serious auto mobile crashes
than younger people .
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Mo deling
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. How does sensitivity analysis shed light on the
black box (i.e., neural networks)?
2. Why would someone choose to use a blackbox tool like neural networks over theoretically
sound, mostly transparent statistical tools like
logistic regression?
3. In this case, how did neural networks and sensitivity analysis help identify injury-severity factors
in traffic accidents?
Source.- D. Delen, R. Sharda, and M. Bessonov, "Id entifying
Significant Predictors of Injury Se verity in Traffic Accide nts Using
a Series of Artificial Neural Networks," Accident Analysis and
Prevention, Vol. 38, No. 3, 2006, pp. 434- 444.
REVIEW QUESTIONS FOR SECTION 6.4
1. What is the so-called "black-box" syndrome?
2. Why is it important to be able to explain an ANN's model structure?
3. How does sensitivity analysis work?
4. Search the Internet to find other ANN explanation methods.
6.5
265
SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINES
Support vector machines (SVMs) are one of the popular machine-learning techniques,
mostly because of their superior predictive power and their theoretical foundation. SVMs
are among the supervised learning methods that produce input-output functions from a
set of labeled training data. The function between the input and output vectors can be
either a classification function (used to assign cases into predefined classes) or a regression function (used to estimate the continuous numerical value of the desired output).
Fo r classification, nonlinear kernel functions are often used to transform the input data
(naturally representing highly complex nonlinear relationships) to a high dimensional
feature space in which the input data becomes linearly separable. Then, the maximummargin hyperplanes are constructed to optimally separate the output classes fro m each
other in the training data.
Given a classification-type prediction problem, generally sp eaking, many linear classifiers (hyperplanes) can separate the data into multiple subsections, each representing
one of the classes (see Figure 6.13a, where the two classes are represented with circles
["e "Jand squares ["•"D. Howeve r, only one hyperplane achieves the maximum sep aration between the classes (see Figure 6 .13b, where the hyperplane and the two maximum
margin hyperplanes are separating the two classes) .
Data used in SVMs may have more than two dimensions (i.e ., two distinct classes).
In that case, we would be interested in separating data using the n-1 dimensional hyperplane, where n is the number of dimensions (i.e., class labels). This may be seen as a
typical form of linear classifier, where we are interested in finding the n-1 hyperplane
so that the distance from the hyperplanes to the nearest data points are maximized. The
assumption is that the larger the margin or distance between these parallel hyperplanes,
the better the generalization power of the classifier (i.e., prediction power of the SVM
model). If such hyperplanes exist, they can be mathematically represented using quadratic optimization modeling. These hyperplanes are known as the maximum-margin
hyperplane, and such a linear classifier is known as a maximum margin classifier.
In addition to their solid mathematical foundation in statistical learning theory, SVMs
have also demonstrated highly competitive p erformance in numerous real-world prediction problems, such as medical diagnosis, bioinformatics, face/voice recognition, demand
forecasting, image processing, and text mining, which has established SVMs as one of the
266 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
•
• •
••••
•
• •
• •
• •• •
[a]
FIGURE 6.13
•• • •
••••••
••
[bl
Separation of the Two Classes Using Hyperplanes.
most popular analytics tools for knowledge discovery and data mining. Similar to artificial
neural networks, SVMs possess the well-known ability of being universal approximators
of any multivariate function to any desired degree of accuracy. Therefore, they are of particular interest to modeling highly nonlinear, complex problems, systems, and processes.
In the research study summarized in Application Case 6.4, SVM are used to successfully
predict freshman student attrition.
Application Case 6.4
Managing Student Retention with Predictive Modeling
Generally, student attrition at a university is
defined by the number of students who do not
complete a degree in that institution. It has become
one of the most challenging problems for decision
makers in academic institutions. In spite of all of
the programs and services to help retain students,
according to the U.S. Department of Education,
Center for Educational Statistics (nces.ed.gov),
only about half of those who enter higher education actually graduate w ith a bachelor's degree.
Enrollment management and the retention of students has become a top priority for administrators
of colleges and universities in the United States
and other developed countries around the world.
High rates of student attrition usually result in loss
of financial resources, lower graduation rates, and
inferior perception of the school in the eyes of
all stakeholders. The legislators and policymakers
who oversee higher education and allocate funds,
the parents who pay for their children's education
in order to prepare them for a better future, and
the students who make college choices look for
evidence of institutional quality (such as low
attrition rate) and reputation to guide their college
selection decisions.
The statistics show that the vast majority
of students withdraw from the university during
their first year (i.e., freshman year) at the college. Since most of the student dropouts occur
at the end of the first year, many of the student
retention/ attrition research studies (including the
one summarized here) have focused on first-year
dropouts (or the number of students that do not
return for the second year). Traditionally, student
retention-related research has been survey driven
(e.g., surveying a student cohort and following
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
them for a specified period of time to determine
whether they continue their education). Using such
a research design, researchers worked on developing and validating theoretical models including
the famous student integration model developed
by Tinto. An alternative (or a complementary)
approach to the traditional survey-based retention
research is an analytic approach where the data
commonly found in institutional databases is used.
Educational institutions routinely collect a broad
range of information about their students, including demographics, educational background, social
involvement, socioeconomic status, and academic
progress.
Research Method
In order to improve student retention, one should
try to understand the non-trivial reasons behind the
attrition. To be successful, one should also be able
to accurately identify those students that are at risk
of dropping out. This is where analytics come in
handy. Using institutional data, prediction models
can be developed to accurately identify the students
at risk of dropout, so that limited resources (people,
money, time, etc., at an institution's student success center) can be optimally used to retain most
of them.
In this study, using 5 years of freshman student
data (obtained from the university's existing databases) along with several data mining techniques,
four types of prediction models are developed and
tested to identify the best predictor of freshman attrition. In order to explain the phenomenon (identify
the relative importance of variables), a sensitivity
analysis of the developed models is also conducted.
The main goals of this and other similar analytic
studies are to (1) develop models to correctly identify the freshman students who are most likely to
drop out after their freshman year, and (2) identify
the most important variables by applying sensitivity analyses on developed models. The models that
we developed are formulated in such a way that
the prediction occurs at the end of the first semester
(usually at the end of fall semester) in order for the
decision makers to properly craft intervention programs during the next semester (the spring semester) in order to retain them.
267
Figure 6.14 shows the graphical illustration of
the research mythology. First, data from multiple
sources about the students are collected and consolidated (see Table 6.2 for the variables used in
this study). Next, the data is preprocessed to handle
missing values and other anomalies. The preprocessed data is then pushed through a 10-fold crossvalidation experiment where for each model type,
10 different models are developed and tested for
comparison purposes.
Results
The results (see Table 6.3) showed that, given sufficient data w ith the proper variables, data mining
techniques are capable of predicting freshman student attrition with approximately 80 percent accuracy. Among the four individual prediction models
used in this study, support vector machines performed the best, followed by decision trees, neural
networks, and logistic regression.
The sensitivity analysis o n the trained prediction models indicated that the most important
predictors for student attrition are those re lated to
past and present educational success (such as the
ratio of completed credit hours into total number of hours enrolled) of the student and whether
they are getting financial help.
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why is attrition one of the most important issues
in higher education?
2. How can predictive analytics (ANN, SVM, and
so fotth) be used to better manage student
retention?
3. What are the main challenges and potential
solutions to the use of analytics in retention
management?
Sources: Compiled from D. Delen, "A Comparative Analysis
of Machine Learning Techniques for Stude nt Retention
Management," Decision Support Systems, Vol. 49, No. 4, 2010,
pp. 498-506; V. Tinto, Leaving College: Rethinking the Causes
and Cures of Stu.dent Attrition , University of Chicago Press, 1987;
and D. Delen, "Predicting Student Attrition with Data Mining
Methods," Journal of College Student Retention, Vol. 13, No. 1,
2011, pp. 17-35.
(Continued)
268 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 6.4
(Continued}
Raw Data
Data
Preprocessing
Preprocessed
Data
Design of
Experiments
Experimental Design
( 1 D-fold Cross
Validation)
Experiment Results
[Confusion Matrixes)
Model
Testing
YES
Model
Building
y ES
Prediction Models
Decision Trees
.
..
Neural Networks
a:cz:o,
.,
.,
a.,
. ..
Support Vecto;
Machine
FIGURE 6.14
Model
Deployment
a.,
0.4
Cl3
1
f[zl ; 1~
'
a.,
Logistic Regression
The Process of Developing and Testing Prediction Models.
NO
# of correctly # of incorrectly
predicted YES predicted YES
of incorrectly # of correctly
NO #predicted
NO predicted NO
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Mo d eling
TABLE 6.2
List of Variables Used in the Student Retention Project
No.
Variables
Data Type
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
College
Mult i Nominal
Degree
Multi Nominal
10
Spring Earned Hours
Num ber
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
Spring GPA
Num ber
Spring Cumulative GPA
Num ber
Second Fall Registered (YI N)
Nom inal
Ethnicity
Nom inal
Sex
Binary Nominal
Residentia l Code
Binary Nominal
Major
Multi Nominal
Concentrat ion
Mult i Nominal
Fall Hours Registered
Number
Fall Earned Hours
Number
Fall GPA
Number
Fall Cumulative GPA
Number
Spring Hou rs Registered
Num ber
Marital Status
Binary Nominal
SAT High Score Comprehensive
Number
SAT High Score English
Number
SAT High Score Reading
Number
SAT High Score Math
Number
SAT High Score Science
Number
Age
Number
High School GPA
Number
High School Graduation Year and Month
Date
Starting Term as New Freshmen
Multi Nominal
27
TOEFL Score
Number
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
Transfer Hours
Number
CLEP Earned Hours
Number
Admission Type
Multi Nominal
Permanent Address State
Mult i Nominal
Received Fall Financial Aid
Binary Nominal
Received Spring Financial Aid
Binary Nominal
Fall St udent Loan
Binary Nominal
Fall Grant/Tuition Waiver/ Scholarship
Binary Nominal
Fall Federal Work Study
Binary Nominal
Spring Student Loan
Binary Nominal
Spring Grant/Tuition Wa iver/Schola rship
Binary Nominal
Spring Federal Work Study
Binary Nominal
(Continued)
269
270 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Application Case 6.4
TABLE 6.3
(Continued)
Prediction Results for the Four Data Mining Methods (A 10-fold cross-validation
with balanced data set is used to obtain these test results.)
ANN(MLP)
Confusion
Matrix
{
DT(CS)
SVM
LR
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
No
Yes
2309
464
2311
417
2313
386
2125
626
781
2626
779
2673
777
2704
965
2464
SUM
3090
3090
3090
3090
3090
3090
3090
3090
74.72%
84.98%
74.79%
86.50%
74.85%
87.51%
68.77 %
79.74%
Per-class Accuracy
Overall Accuracy
79.85%
80.65%
81. 18%
74.26%
Mathematical Formulation of SVMs
Consider data points in the training data set of the form:
where the c is the class label taking a value of either 1 (i.e., "yes") or O (i.e., "no") while x
is the input variable vector. That is, each data point is an m-dimensional real vector, usually of scaled (0, 1] or [-1 , 1] values. The normalization and/ or scaling are important steps
to guard against variables/ attributes with larger variance that might o therwise dominate
the classification formulae. We can view this as training data, which denotes the correct
classification (something that we would like the SVM to eventually achieve) by means of
a dividing hyperplane, which takes the mathematical form
w·x - b = 0.
The vector w points perpendicular to the separating hyperplane. Adding the offset
parameter b allows us to increase the margin. In its absence, the hyperplane is forced
to pass through the origin, restricting the solution. As we are interested in the maximum
margin, we are interested in the support vectors and the p arallel hyperplanes (to the
optimal hyperplane) closest to these support vectors in either class. It can be shown that
these parallel hyperplanes can be described by equations
w·x - b = l,
w·x - b = -1.
If the trammg data are linearly separable, we can select these hyperplanes so
that there are no points between them and then try to maximize their distance (see
Figure 6.13b). By using geometry, we find the distance between the hyperplanes is
2/ I w I , so we want to minimize I w 1- To exclude data points, we need to ensure that for
all i e ither
w · X; -
b 2: 1
W • X; -
b :S -1.
or
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
This can be rewritten as:
1 ::; i:;; n.
c;(w • x; -b)2:l,
Primal Form
The problem now is to minimize I w I subject to the constraint c; (w • X ; - b) 2:: 1,
This is a quadratic programming (QP) optimization problem. More clearly,
0 12) II w II 2
Minimize
Subject to
1 ::; i :;; n.
C; (W • X; -
b) 2'. 1,
1::; i:;; n.
The factor of 1/ 2 is used for mathematical convenience.
Dual Form
Writing the classification rule in its dual form reveals that classification is only a function
of the support vectors, that is, the training data that lie on the margin. The dual of the
SVM can be shown to be:
n
max ~a ; - ~a;a1c;c1x;x1
i= 1
i ,j
where the a terms constitute a dual representation for the weight vector in terms of the
training set:
W
= ~ a ; C;X;
Soft Margin
In 1995, Cortes and Vapnik suggested a modified maximum margin idea that allows for
mislabeled examples. If there exists no hyperplane that can split the "yes" and "no" examples, the soft margin method will choose a hyperplane that splits the examples as cleanly
as possible, while still maximizing the distance to the nearest cleanly split examples. This
work popularized the expression support vector machine or SVM. The method introduces
slack variables, t;, which measure the degree of misclassification of the datum.
C; (w • X; -
b) 2'. 1 - t;
The objective function is then increased by a function that penalizes non-zero t ;,
and the optimization becomes a trade-off between a large margin and a small error penalty. If the penalty function is linear, the equation now transforms to
min llwll 2 + c~g;
such that c;(w · x ; - b) 2: 1 -
t; 1::; i:;; n
This constraint along with the objective of minimizing I w I can be solved using
Lagrange multipliers. The key advantage of a linear penalty function is that the slack
variables vanish from the dual problem, with the constant C appearing only as an
vadditional constraint on the Lagrange multipliers. Nonlinear penalty functions have been
used, particularly to reduce the effect of outliers on the classifier, but unless care is taken,
the problem becomes non-convex, and thus it is considerably more difficult to find a
global solution.
271
272
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Nonlinear Classification
The original optimal hyperplane algorithm proposed by Vladimir Vapnik in 1963, while
he was a doctoral student at the Institute of Control Science in Moscow, was a linear
classifier. However, in 1992, Boser, Guyon, and Vapnik suggested a way to create nonlinear classifiers by applying the kernel trick (originally proposed by Aizerman et al., 1964)
to maximum-margin hyperplanes. The resulting algorithm is formally similar, except that
every dot product is replaced by a nonlinear kernel function. This allows the algorithm to
fit the maximum-margin hyperplane in the transformed feature space. The transformation
may be nonlinear and the transformed space high dimensional; thus, though the classifier
is a hyperplane in the high-dimensional feature space it may be nonlinear in the original
input space.
If the kernel used is a Gaussian radial basis function, the corresponding feature
space is a Hilbert space of infinite dimension. Maximum margin classifiers are well regularized, so the infinite dimension does not spoil the results. Some common kernels
include,
Polynomial (homogeneous): k( x, x') = (x · x')
Polynomial (inhomogeneous): k(x, x') = (x · x' + l)
Radial basis function: k(x, x') = exp(-yJJx - x' ll 2 ), for y > 0
2
Gaussian radial basis function: k(x, x') = exp(- Jlx ;CT{ll )
Sigmoid: k(x, x') = tan h(kx·x' + c) for some k > 0 and c < 0
Kernel Trick
In machine learning, the kernel trick is a method for converting a linear classifier algorithm
into a nonlinear one by using a nonlinear function to map the original observations into
a higher-dimensional space; this makes a linear classification in the new space equivalent
to nonlinear classification in the original space.
This is done using Mercer's theorem, which states that any continuous, symmetric,
positive semi-definite kernel function K(x, y) can be expressed as a dot product in a
high-dimensional space. More specifically, if the arguments to the kernel are in a measurable space X, and if the kernel is positive semi-definite - i.e.,
~K(x;, x}c; c1 2= 0
i, j
for any finite subset {x1 , ... , Xnl of X and subset {c1 , . . . , cnl of objects (typically real
numbers or even molecules)-then there exists a function cp(x) whose range is in an
inner product space of possibly high dimension, such that
K(x, y) = cp(x) · cp(y)
The kernel trick transforms any algorithm that solely depends on the dot product
between two vectors. Wherever a dot product is used, it is replaced with the kernel ft.mction. Thus, a linear algorithm can easily be transformed into a nonlinear algorithm. This
nonlinear algorithm is equivalent to the linear algorithm operating in the range space of cp .
However, because kernels are used, the cp function is never explicitly computed. This is
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
desirable, because the high-dimensional space may be infinite-dimensional (as is the case
w hen the ke rnel is a Gaussian).
Although the o rigin of the term kernel trick is not known , the kernel trick was first
published by Aizerman et al. (1964). It has been applied to several kinds of algorithm in
machine learning and statistics, including:
• Perceptrons
• Support vecto r machines
• Principal components analysis
• Fisher's linear discriminant analysis
• Clustering
SECTION 6.5 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. How do SVM work?
2. What are the advantages and disadvantages of SVM?
3. What is the meaning of "maximum margin hyperplanes"? Why are they important in
SVM?
4. What is "kernel trick"? How is it used in SVM?
6.6
A PROCESS-BASED APPROACH TO THE USE OF SVM
Due largely to the better classification results, recently support vector machines (SVMs)
have become a popular technique for classification-type problems. Even though people
consider them as being easier to use than artificial neural networks, u sers w ho are not
familiar with the intricacies of SVMs often get unsatisfactory results. In this sectio n we
provide a process-based approach to the use of SVM, w hich is more like ly to produce
better results. A picto rial representation of the three-step process is given in Figure 6.15.
NUMERICIZING THE DATA SVMs re quire that each data instance is represented as a
vector of real numbe rs. Hence, if the re are categorical attributes, we first have to convert
them into numeric data. A commo n recommendatio n is to use m pseudo-binary-variables
to represent an m-class attribute (where m::::: 3). In practice, only one of the m variables
assumes the value of "1" and othe rs assume the value of "O" based on the actual class of
the case (this is also called 1-of-m representation). For example, a three-category attribute
such as {red, green , blue} can be represented as (0,0,1), (0,1,0), and (1,0,0).
NORMALIZING THE DATA As was the case for artificial neural networks, SVMs also
require normalization and/ or scaling of nume rical values. The main advantage of normalization is to avoid attributes in greater numeric ranges dominating those of in smaller
numeric ranges. Another advantage is that it helps performing numerical calculations
during the iterative process of model building . Because kernel values usually depend on
the inne r products of feature vectors (e.g., the linear kernel and the p olynomial kernel),
large attribute values might slow the training process. Use recommendations to normalize
each attribute to the range [-1 , +1) or [O, 1). Of course, we have to use the same no rmalization method to scale testing data before testing .
SELECT THE KERNEL TYPE AND KERNEL PARAMETERS Even though there are only four
common kernels mentioned in the previous sectio n, one must decide w hich one to use
(or whether to try them all, one at a time, using a simple experimental design approach).
Once the kernel type is selected, then o ne needs to select the value of penalty parameter C
and ke rnel parameters. Generally sp eaking, RBF is a reasonable first choice for the kernel
typ e . The RBF kernel aims to no nlinearly map data into a higher dimensional space; by
do ing so (unlike w ith a linear ke rnel) it handles the cases w here the relatio n between
273
274
Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Training
data
,----
Preprocess the Data
,/ Scrub the data
"Identify and handle missing,
incorrect, and noisy"
,/ Transform the data
"Numericize, normalize, and
standardize the data"
Preprocessed data
Develop the Model
,/ Select the kernel type
"Choose from RBF, Sigmoid,
or Polynomial kernel types"
,/ Determine the kernel values
"Use v-fold cross validation
or employ 'grid-search"'
~------------------
Validated SVM model
Deploy the Model
,/ Extract the model coefficients
,/ Code the trained model into
the decision support system
,/ Monitor and maintain the
model
FIGURE 6.15
Experimentation
''Training/ Testing"
Prediction
Model
A Simple Process Description for Developing SVM Models.
input and output vectors is highly nonlinear. Besides, one should note that the linear
kernel is just a special case of RBF kernel. There are two parameters to choose for RBF
kernels: C and y. It is not known beforehand which C and y are the best for a given
prediction problem; therefore, some kind of parameter search method needs to be used.
The goal for the search is to identify optimal values for C and y so that the classifier can
accurately predict unknown data (i.e., testing data). The two most commonly used search
methods are cross-validation and grid search.
DEPLOY THE MODEL Once an "optimal" SVM prediction model has been developed,
the next step is to integrate it into the decision support system. For that, there are two
options: (1) converting the model into a computational object (e.g., a Web service, Java
Bean, or COM object) that takes the input parameter values and provides output prediction, (2) extracting the model coefficients and integrating them directly into the decision
support system. The SVM models are useful (i.e., accurate, actionable) only if the behavior of the underlying domain stays the same. For some reason, if it changes, so does the
accuracy of the model. Therefore, one should continuously assess the performance of
the models, decide when they no longer are accurate, and, hence, need to be retrained.
Support Vector Machines Versus Artificial Neural Networks
Even though some people characterize SVMs as a special case of ANNs, most recognize
them as two competing machine-learning techniques with different qualities. Here are a
few points that help SVMs sta nd out against ANNs. Historically, the development of ANNs
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
followed a heuristic path, w ith applications and extensive experimentation preceding
theory. In contrast, the development of SVMs involved sound statistical learning theory
first, then implementation and experiments. A significant advantage of SVMs is that while
ANNs may suffer from multiple local minima, the solutions to SVMs are global and unique.
Two more advantages of SVMs are that they have a simple geometric interpretation and
give a sparse solutio n . The reason that SVMs often outperform ANNs in practice is that
they successfully deal with the "over fitting" problem, which is a big issue with ANNs.
Besides these advantages of SVMs (from a practical point of view), they also have
some limitations. An important issue that is not entirely solved is the selection of the kernel type and kernel function parameters. A second and perhaps more important limitation
of SVMs are the speed and size, both in the training and testing cycles. Model building
in SVMs involves complex and time-demanding calculations. From the practical point of
view, perhaps the most serious problem with SVMs is the high algorithmic complexity
and extensive memory requirements of the required quadratic programming in largescale tasks. Despite these limitations, because SVMs are based on a sound theoretical
foundation and the solutions they produce are global and unique in nature (as opposed
to getting stuck in a su boptimal alternative such as a local minima), nowadays they are
arguably o ne of the most popular prediction modeling techniques in the data mining
arena. Their use and popularity w ill only increase as the popular commercial data mining
tools start to incorporate them into their modeling arsenal.
SECTION 6.6 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What are the main steps and decision points in developing a SVM model?
2. How do you determine the optimal kernel type and kernel parameters?
3. Compared to ANN, what are the advantages of SVM?
4. What are the common application areas for SVM? Conduct a search o n the Internet
to identify popular application areas and specific SVM software tools used in those
applications.
6.7
NEAREST NEIGHBOR METHOD FOR PREDICTION
Data mining algorithms tend to be highly mathematical and computationally intensive.
The two popular ones that are covered in the previous section (i.e., ANNs and SVMs)
involve time-demanding, computationally intensive iterative mathematical derivations.
In contrast, the k-nearest neighbor a lgorithm (or kNN, in short) seems overly simplistic
for a competitive prediction method. It is so easy to understand (and explain to others) what it does and how it does it. k-NN is a prediction method for classification- as
well as regression-type prediction problems. k-NN is a type of instance-based learning
(or lazy learning) where the function is only approximated locally and all computations
are defe rre d until the actual prediction.
The k-nearest neighbor algorithm is among the simplest of all machine-learning algorithms: For instance, in the classification-type prediction, a case is classified by a majority
vote of its neighbors, with the object being assigned to the class most common among
its k nearest neighbors (whe re k is a positive integer). If k = l, then the case is simply
assigned to the class of its nearest ne ighbor. To illustrate the concept with an example , let
us look at Figure 6. 16, w here a simple two-dimensional space represents the values for
the two variables (x, y); the star represents a new case (or object); and circles and squares
represent known cases (or examples). The task is to assign the new case to either circles
or squares based on its closeness (similarity) to one or the other. If you set the value of k
to 1 (k = 1), the assignment should be made to square, because the closest example to star
is a square. If you set the value of k to 3 Ck = 3), then the assignment should be made to
275
276 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
y
•
•
k= 3
\
Y;
I
I
•
~
•
X;
FIGURE 6.16
k= 5
X
The Importance of the Value of kin kNN Algorithm.
circle, because there two circles and one square, and hence from the simple majority vote
rule, circle gets the assignment of the new case. Similarly, if you set the value of k to 5
(k = 5), then the assignment should be made to square-class. This overly simplified example is meant to illustrate the importance of the value that one assigns to k.
The same method can also be used for regression-type prediction tasks, by simply
averaging the values of its k nearest neighbors and assigning this result to the case being
predicte d. It can be useful to weight the contributions of the neighbors, so that the nearer
neighbors contribute more to the average than the more distant ones. A common weighting scheme is to give each neighbor a weight of 1/ d , where d is the distance to the neighbor. This scheme is essentially a generalization of linear interpolation.
The neighbors are taken from a set of cases for which the correct classification (or,
in the case of regression, the numerical value of the output value) is known. This can be
thought of as the training set for the algorithm, even tho ugh no explicit training step is
required. The k-nearest neighbor algorithm is sensitive to the local structure of the data.
Similarity Measure: The Distance Metric
One of the two critical decisions that an analyst has to make while u sing kNN is to
determine the similarity measure (the other is to determine the value of k, which is
explained next). In the kNN algorithm, the similarity measure is a mathematically calculable distance metric. Given a new case, kNN makes predictions based on the outcome
of the k neighbors closest in distance to that point. Therefore, to make predictions with
kNN, we need to define a metric for measuring the distance between the new case and
the cases from the examples. One of the most popular choices to measure this distance
is known as Euclidean (Equation 3), w hich is simply the linear distance between two
points in a dimensional space; the other p o pular one is the rectilinear (a.k.a. City-block
or Manhattan distance) (Equation 2). Both of these distance measures are special cases of
Minkowski distance (Equation 1).
Minkowski distance
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
where i = (x;1 , x;2 , . .. , X;p) and j = (x11, x12 , . . . , x1p) are two p-dimensional data o bjects
(e.g ., a new case and an example in the data set), and q is a positive integer.
If q = l , the n d is called Manhattan distance
If q = 2, then d is called Euclidean distance
Obviously, these measures apply only to numerically represented data. How about
nominal data' There are ways to measure distance for no n-numerical data as well. In the
simplest case, for a multi-value no minal variable, if the value of that variable for the new
case and that for the example case are the same, the distance would be zero, otherwise
one. In cases such as text classification, more sophisticated metrics exist, su ch as the
overlap metric (or Hamming distance). Often, the classification accuracy of kNN can be
improved significantly if the distance metric is determined through an experimental design
where different metrics are tried and tested to identify the best one for the given problem.
Parameter Selection
The best choice of k depends upo n the data; generally, larger values of k reduce the
effect of noise o n the classification (or regression) but also make boundaries between
classes less distinct. An "optimal" value of k can be found by some heuristic techniques,
for instance, cross-validation. The special case whe re the class is predicte d to be the class
of the closest training sample (i.e., when k = 1) is called the nearest neighbor algorithm.
Cross-validatio n is a well-established experime ntation technique
that can be used to determine optimal values for a set of unknown model parameters. It
applies to most, if not all, of the machine-learning techniques, w he re there are a number
of mode l parameters to be determined. The gene ra l idea of this experimentatio n method
is to divide the data sample into a number of randomly drawn, disjointed sub-samples
(i.e., v number of folds). For each potential value of k, the kNN model is used to make
predictions on the vth fold w hile using the v-1 folds as the examples, and evaluate the
error. The common choice for this error is the root-mean-squared-error (RMSE) for regression-type predictions and pe rcentage of correctly classified instances (i.e ., hit rate) for the
classificatio n-type predictions. This process of testing each fold against the remaining of
examples repeats v times. At the end of the v number of cycles, the computed errors are
accumulated to yield a goodness measure of the model (i.e ., how well the model predicts
with the current value of the k). At the end, the k value that produces the smallest overall
error is chosen as the op timal value for that problem. Figure 6.17 shows a simple process
where the training data is used to determine optimal values for k and distance metric,
w hich are then used to predict new incoming cases.
As we observed in the simple example given earlier, the accuracy of the kNN algorithm can be significantly different w ith different values of k. Furthermore, the predictive
power of the kNN algorithm degrades with the presence of noisy, inaccurate, or irrelevant
features. Much research effort has been put into feature selectio n and normalization/
scaling to e nsure reliable prediction results. A particularly popular approach is the u se of
evolutionary algorithms (e.g., genetic algo rithms) to optimize the set of features included
in the kNN prediction system. In binary (two class) classificatio n problems, it is helpful to
choose k to be an odd number as this would avoid tied votes.
A drawback to the basic majority voting classification in kNN is that the classes with
the mo re freque nt examples tend to dominate the prediction of the new vecto r, as they
CROSS-VALIDATION
277
278 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Training Set
Parameter Setting
../ Distance measure
../ Value of "I<'
Historic Data
Validation Set
Predicting
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ ___, Classify (or forecast]
new cases using k
number of most
similar cases
New Data
FIGURE 6.17
The Process of Determining the Optimal Values for Distance Metric and k.
tend to come up in the k nearest neighbors w he n the ne ighbors are computed due to their
large number. One way to overcome this problem is to weigh the classification taking
into account the distance from the test point to each of its k nearest neighbors. Another
way to overcome this drawback is by one level of abstractio n in data representation.
The naive version of the algo rithm is easy to implement by computing the distances
from the test sample to all stored vecto rs, but it is computationally intensive, esp ecially
w he n the size of the training set g rows. Many nearest neighbor search algorithms have
been proposed over the years; these generally seek to reduce the number of distance
evaluatio ns actually performed. Using an appropriate nearest neighbor search algorithm
makes kNN computationally tractable even for large data sets. Application Case 6.5 talks
about the superior capabilities of kNN in image recognition and categorization.
Application Case 6.5
Efficient Image Recognition and Categorization with kNN
Image recognitio n is an emerging data mining application fie ld involved in processing, analyzing, and
categorizing visual objects such as pictures. In the
process of recognition (or categorization), images
are first transformed into a multidime nsio nal feature space and then, using machine-learning
techniques, are categorized into a finite numbe r of
classes. Application areas of image recognition and
categorization range from agriculture to homeland
security, personalized marketing to e nviro nme ntal
protection. Image recognition is an integral part of
an artificial intelligence field called computer vision.
As a technological discipline, computer v1s1on
seeks to develop computer systems that are capable of "seeing" and reacting to their environment.
Examples of applications of computer vision include
systems for process automation (industrial robots),
n avigation (autonomo us vehicles), mo nitoring/
detecting (visual surveillance), searching and sorting
visuals (indexing databases of images and image
sequences), engaging (computer- human interaction), and inspectio n (manufactu ring processes).
While the field of visual recognition and category
recognition has been progressing rapidly, much remains
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
to be done to reach human-level pe1formance. Ctment
approaches are capable of dealing with only a limited
number of categories (100 or so categories) and are
computationally expensive. Many machine-learning
techniques (including ANN, SVM, and kNN) are used
to develop computer systems for visual recognition
and categorization. Though commendable results have
been obtained, generally speaking, none of these tools
in their cun-ent form is capable of developing systems
that can compete with humans.
In a research project, several researchers from
the Computer Science Division of the Electrical
Engineering and Computer Science Department at the
University of California, Berkeley, used an innovative
ensemble approach to image categorization (Zhang
et al., 2006). They considered visual category recognition in the framework of measuring similarities, or perceptual distances, to develop examples
of categories. Their recognition and categorization
approach was quite flexible, permitting recognition based on color, texture, and particularly shape.
While nearest neighbor classifiers (i.e., kNN) are natural in this setting, they suffered from the problem
of high variance (in bias-variance decomposition)
in the case of limited sampling. Alternatively, one
could choose to use support vector machines but
they also involve time-consuming optimization and
computations. They proposed a hybrid of these two
methods, which deals naturally with the multiclass
setting, has reasonable computational complexity
both in training and at run time, and yields excellent results in practice. The basic idea was to find
close neighbors to a query sample and train a local
support vector machine that preserves the distance
function on the collection of neighbors.
Their method can be applied to large, multiclass data sets where it o utperform s nearest ne ighbor and support vector machines and remains efficient when the problem becomes intractable. A wide
variety of distance functions were used, and their
experiments showed state-of-the-art performance on
a number of benchmark data sets for shape and texture classification (MNIST, USPS, CUReT) and object
recognition (Caltech-101).
279
Another group of researchers (Boiman et al.,
2008) argued that two practices commonly used
in image classification methods (namely SVM- and
ANN-type model-driven approaches and kNN type
non-parametric approaches) have led to less-thandesired p erformance outcomes. They also claim that
a hybrid method can improve the performance of
image recognition and categorization. They propose
a trivial Naive Bayes kNN-based classifier, which
employs kNN distances in the space of the local
image descriptors (and not in the space of images).
They claim that, although the modified kNN method
is extremely simple, efficient, and requires no learning/training phase, its performance ranks among the
top leading learning-based parametric image classifiers. Empirical comparisons of their method were
shown on several challenging image categorization
databases (Caltech-101 , Caltech-256, and Graz-01).
In addition to image recognition and categorization, kNN is successfully applied to complex
classification problems, such as content retrieval
(handwriting detection, video content analysis, body
and sign language, where communication is done
using body or hand gestures), gene expression (this
is another area where kNN tends to perform better than other state-of-the-art techniques; in fact, a
combination of kNN-SVM is one of the most popular
techniques used he re), and protein-to-protein interaction and 3D structure prediction (graph-based kNN
is often used for interaction structure prediction).
QUESTIONS FOR DISCUSSION
1. Why is image recognition/classification a worthy
but difficult problem?
2. How can kNN be effectively used for image recognition/classification applications?
Sou rces: H. Zhang, A. C. Be rg , M. Maire, and J. Malik, "SVMKNN: Discriminative Nearest Neighbor Classification for
Visua l Category Recognition," Proceedings of the 2006 IEEE
Computer Society Conference on Computer Vision and Pattern
Recognition (CVPR'06}, Vol. 2, 2006, pp. 2126- 2136; 0 . Boiman,
E. Shechtman, and M. Irani, "In Defense of Nearest-Neighbor
Based Image Classification ," IEEE Confe rence on Computer Vision
a nd Pattern Recognition, 2008 (CVPR}, 2008, pp.1-8.
SECTION 6. 7 REVIEW QUESTIONS
1. What is sp ecial about the kNN algorithm?
2. What are the advantages and disadvantages of kNN as compared to ANN and SVM?
280 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
3. What are the critical success factors for a kNN implementation?
4. What is a similarity (or distance measure)? How can it be applied to both numerical
and nominal valued variables?
5. What are the common applications of kNN?
Chapter Highlights
• Neural computing involves a set of methods that
e mulate the way the human brain works. The
basic processing unit is a neuron. Multiple neurons are grouped into layers and linked together.
• In a neural network, the knowledge is stored
in the weight associated w ith each connection
between two neurons.
• Backpropagation is the most popular paradigm in
business applications of neural networks. Most business applications are handled using this algorithm.
• A backpropagation-based neural network consists of an input layer, an output layer, and a
certain number of hidden layers (usually one).
The nodes in one layer are fully connected to the
nodes in the next layer. Learning is done through
a trial-and-error process of adjusting the connection weights.
• Each node at the input layer typically represents a
single attribute that may affect the prediction.
• Neural network learning can occur in supervised
or unsupervised mode.
• In supervised learning mode, the training patterns
include a correct answer/classificatio n/forecast.
• In unsupervised learning mode, there are no
known answers. Thus, unsupervised learning is
used for clustering or exploratory data analysis.
• The usual process of learning in a neural network
involves three steps: (1) compute temporary
outputs based on inputs and random weights,
(2) compute outputs with desired targets, and
(3) adjust the weights and repeat the process.
• The delta rule is commonly used to adjust the
weights. It includes a learning rate and a momentum parameter.
• Developing neural network-based systems
requires a step-by-step process. It includes data
preparation and preprocessing, training and
testing, and conversion of the trained model into
a production system.
• Neural network software is available to allow
easy experimentation with many models. Neural
network modules are included in all major data
mining software tools. Specific neural network
packages are also available. Some neural network
tools are available as spreadsheet add-ins.
• After a trained network has been created, it is usually
implemented in end-user systems through programming languages such as C++, Java, and Visual Basic.
Most neural network tools can generate code for the
trained network in these languages.
• Many neural network models beyond backpropagation exist, including radial basis functions, support vector machines, Hopfield networks, and
Kohonen's self-organizing maps.
• Neural network applications abound in almost
all business disciplines as well as in virtually all
other functional areas.
• Business applications of neural networks include
finance, bankruptcy prediction, time-series forecasting, and so on.
• New applications of neural networks are emerging in healthcare, security, and so on.
Key Terms
artificial neural network
(ANN)
axon
backpropagation
connection weight
dendrite
hidden layer
k-nearest neighbor
Kohonen's self-organizing
feature map
neural computing
neural network
neuron
nucleus
parallel processing
pattern recognition
perceptron
processing element (PE)
sigmoid (logical
activation) function
summation function
supervised learning
synapse
threshold value
transformation (tran sfer)
function
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
281
Questions for Discussion
1. Compare artificial and b io logical neural networks. What
aspects of biological networks are not mimicked by
artificial o nes? What aspects are similar?
2. The performance of ANN re lies heavily on the summa tion and transformation functions. Explain the combined
effects of the summation and transformation functions
and how they differ from statistical regression analysis.
3. ANN can be used for both supervised and unsupervised
learning. Explain how they learn in a supervised mode
and in an unsupervised mode.
4. Explain the difference between a training set and a testing
set. Why d o we need to differe ntiate them? Can the same
set be used for both purposes? Why or w hy not?
5. Say that a neural network has been constructed to predict
the creditworthiness of applicants. There are two output
nodes: one for yes (1 = yes, 0 = no) and one for no (1 = no,
0 = yes). An applicant receives a score of 0.83 for the
"yes" output node and a 0.44 for the "no" output n ode.
Discuss what may have happened and whethe r the applicant is a good credit risk.
6. Everyone would like to make a great deal of money on
the stock market. Only a few are very successful. Why
is using an ANN a promising app roach? What can it d o
that other decision support technologies cannot do? How
could it fail?
Exercises
Teradata University Network (TUN) and Other
Hands-On Exercises
1. Go to the Teradata University Network Web site
(teradatauniversitynetwork.com) or the URL given
by your instructor. Locate Web seminars related to data
mining and neural networks. Specifically, view the seminar given by Professor Hugh Watson at the SPIRIT2005
conference at Oklahoma State University; then , answer
the following questions:
a. Which real-time applicatio n at Continental Airlines
may have used a neural network?
b. What inputs and outputs can be used in building a
neural network application?
c. Given that Continental's data mining applications are
in real time, how might Continental imp lement a ne ural network in practice?
d. What othe r neural network applicatio ns would you
propose for the airline industty?
2. Go to the Teradata University Network Web site
(teradatauniversitynetwork.com) or the URL given by
your instructo r. Locate the Harrah's case. Read the case
and answer the following questions:
a. Which of the Harrah's data applications are most
likely implemented using neural ne tworks?
b. What othe r applications could Harrah's deve lop using
the data it is collecting from its custome rs?
c. What are some concerns you might have as a customer at this casino?
3. The bankruptcy-prediction problem can be viewed as a
problem of classification. The data set you w ill be using
for this proble m includes five ratios that have been computed from the financial statements of real-world firms.
These five ratios have been used in studies involving
bankruptcy prediction. The first sample includes data on
firms that went bankrupt and firms that didn't. This w ill be
your training sample for the neural network. The second
sample o f 10 firms also consists o f some bankru pt firms
and some nonbankrupt firms. Your goal is to use neural
networks, su pport vector machines, and nearest neighbor
algorithms to build a mode l, using the first 20 data points,
and then test its performance on the other 10 data points.
(Try to analyze the new cases yourself manually before
you run the neural network and see how well you do.)
The followin g tables show the training samp le and test
data you should use for this exercise.
Training Sample
Firm WC/TA
RE/TA
EBIT/TA MVE/TD
SITA
0. 1650
0.1 192
0.2035
0.8130
1.6702
2
0. 1415
0.3868
0.0681
0.5755
1.0579
3
0.5804
0.3331
0.0810
1.1964
1.3572
4
0.2304
0.2960
0.1225
0.4102
3.0809
BR/NB
5
0.3684
0.3913
0.0524
0.1658
1.1 533
6
0.1527
0.3344
0.0783
0.7736
1.5046
7
0. 11 26
0.3071
0.0839
1.3429
1.5736
8
0.0141
0.2366
0.0905
0.5863
1.4651
9
0.2220
0.1797
0.1526
0.3459
1. 7237
10
0.2776
0.2567
0.1642
0.2968
1.8904
11
0.2689
0.1729
0.0287
0.1224
0.9277
0
12
0.2039 - 0 0476
0 1263
0.8965
1.0457
0
13
0.5056 - 0.1951
0.2026
0.5380
1.951 4
0
14
0. 1759
0.1343
0.0946
0.1955
1.9218
0
15
0.3579
0.1515
0.0812
0.1991
1.4582
0
16
0.2845
0.2038
0.0171
0.3357
1.3258
0
17
0. 1209
0.2823 -0.011 3
0.3157
2.3219
0
18
0.1254
0.1956
0.2073
1.4890
0
0.0079
19
0.1777
0.0891
0.0695
0.1924
1.6871
0
20
0.2409
0.1660
0.0746
0.2516
1.8524
0
282 Part III
. Predictive Analytics
Test Data
Firm WC/TA RE/TA
EBIT/TA MVE/TD
SITA
BR/NB
?
necessa1y d ecisions to preprocess the data and build the
best possible predictor. Use your favorite tool to build
the models for neural networks, support vector machines,
and nearest neighbor algorithms, and docume nt the
details of your results and experiences in a w ritten report.
Use screenshots within your report to illustrate important
and interesting findings. You are expected to discu ss and
justify any decisio n that you make along the way.
The re use of this data set is unlimited w ith retention
of copyright notice for Jock A. Blackard and Colorado
State University.
A
0. 1759
0.1343
0.0946
0.1955
1.9218
B
0.3732
0.3483
- 0 0013
0.3483
1.8223
7
C
0.1725
0.3238
0.1040
0.8847
0.5576
?
D
0.1630
0.3555
0.0110
0.3730
2.8307
?
E
0. 1904
0.2011
0.1329
0.5580
1.6623
?
F
0.1123
0.2288
0.0 100
0. 1884
2.7186
7
G
0.0732
0.3526
0.0587
0.2349
1.7432
?
H
0.2653
0.2683
0.0235
0.5118
1.8350
?
Team Assignments and Role-Playing Projects
0.1070
0.0787
0.0433
0.1083
1.2051
?
0.2921
0.2390
0.0673
0.3402
0.9277
?
1. Consider the following set of data that relates daily electricity usage as a function of outside high temperature
(for the day):
Describe the results of the neural network, support vector machines, and nearest neighbo r model predictions,
including software, architecture, and training information.
4. The purpose of this exercise is to develop models to
predict forest cover type using a number of cartographic
measures. The given data set (Online File W6.1) includes
four wilderness areas found in the Roosevelt Nationa l
Forest of northern Colorado. A total of 12 cartographic
measures were utilized as independent variables; seven
major forest cover types we re used as dependent
variables. The following table provides a short description of these inde pende nt and dependent variables:
This is an excellent example for a multiclass classification problem. The data set is rather large (with 581 ,012
unique instances) and feature rich. As you will see, the
data is also raw and skewed (unbalanced for different cover types). As a mode l builde r, you are to make
Number
Name
Temperature, X
Kilowatts, Y
46.8
12,530
52.1
10,800
55. 1
10,180
59.2
9,730
61.9
9,750
66.2
10,230
69.9
11,1 60
76.8
13,910
79.7
15,1 10
79.3
15,690
80.2
17,020
83.3
17,880
Description
Independent Variables
1
Elevation
Elevation in meters
2
Aspect
Aspect in degrees azimuth
3
Slope
Slope in degrees
4
Horizontal_Distance_To_Hydrology
Horizontal distance to nearest surface-water features
Vertical distance to nearest surface-water features
5
Vertical_Distance_To_Hydrology
6
Horizontal_Distance_To_Roadways
Horizontal dista nce to nearest roadway
7
Hillshade_9am
Hill shade index at 9 A.M., summer solstice
8
Hillshade_Noon
Hill shade index at noon, summer solstice
9
Hillshade_3pm
Hill shade index at 3 P.M., summer solstice
10
Horizontal_Distance_To_Fire_Points
Horizontal distance to nearest wildfire ignition points
11
Wilderness_Area (4 binary variables)
W ilderness area designation
12
Soil_Type (40 binary variables)
Soil type designation
Number
Dependent Variable
Cover_Type (7 unique types)
Forest cover type designation
Nole: More details a bout the data set (variables and observations) can be found in the online file.
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
a. Plot th e raw data. What pattern d o you see? What do
you th ink is really affecting electricity usage?
b. Solve this problem with linear regression Y = a + bX
(in a spreadsheet). How well does this work? Plot
your results. What is wrong? Calculate the su m-ofthe-squares error and Ii2.
c. Solve this proble m by using no nlinear regression.
We recommend a quadratic functio n , Y = a + b 1X
+ b2X 2 . How well does this work? Plot your results.
Is anything wrong? Calculate the sum-of-the-squares
error and R 2 .
d. Break up the problem into three sectio ns (look at the
plot). Solve it using three linear regressio n modelso ne for each section . How well does this work? Plot
your results. Calculate the sum-o f-the -squares erro r
and Ii2. ls this modeling approach appropriate? Why
or w hy no t?
e. Build a neural network to solve the original proble m. (You may have to scale the X and Y values to
be between O and 1.) Train it (on the entire set of
data) and solve the problem (i.e., make p redictions
for each of the original data items). How well does
this work? Plot your results. Calculate the sum-of-the squares e rror and Ji2.
f. Which method works best and w hy?
2. Build a real-world neural network. Using demo software d ownloaded fro m the Web (e.g., Neu roSolutio ns
at neurodirnension.corn o r another site), ide ntify realworld data (e.g., start searching on the Web at ics.uci.
edu/-rnlearn/MLRepository.htrnl or use data from an
organization with which someone in your group has a
contact) and build a neural network to make p redictions.
Topics might include sales forecasts, predicting success
in a n acade mic program (e.g. , p redict GPA from high
school rating and SAT scores, being careful to look o u t
for "bad" data, such as GPAs of 0.0), o r h ousing p rices; or
survey the class for weight, gende r, and he ight and tty to
predict height based o n the o ther two facto rs. You could
also use U.S. Census data o n this book's Web site or at
census.gov, by state, to identify a relationship between
educatio n level and income. How good are your predictions? Compare the results to predictions gene rated using
standard statistical me thods (regressio n). Which method
is better? How could your system be embedded in a DSS
for real decision making?
3. For each of the following a pplicatio ns, would it be better to use a neural network o r an expert system' Explain
your answers, including possible exceptio ns o r special
conditio ns.
a. Diagnosis of a well-established but complex d isease
b. Price-lookup subsystem for a high-volume me rchandise seller
c. Auto mated voice-inq uiry processing system
d. Training o f new employees
e. Handwriting recognition
283
4. Consider the following data set, w hich includ es three
attributes and a classification for admissio n decisio ns into
an MBA p rogram :
Quantitative
GMAT
GPA
GMAT
Decision
650
2.75
35
NO
580
3. 50
70
NO
600
3. 50
75
YES
450
2.95
80
NO
700
3.25
90
YES
590
3. 50
80
YES
400
3.85
45
NO
640
3. 50
75
YES
540
3.00
60
?
690
2.85
80
7
490
4.00
65
?
a . Using the data given here as examples, develop your
own manual expert rules for decisio n making.
b. Build and test a neu ral network model using your
favorite data min ing tool. Experiment with different
model parameters to "optimize" the predictive power
of your mod e l.
c. Build and test a su pport vector machine model using
your favorite data mining tool. Experiment with different mod el parameters to "optimize" the predictive
power of your m odel. Compare the results of ANN
and SVM.
d . Report the p redictions o n the last th ree observatio ns from each of the three classification approaches
(ANN, SVM, and kNN). Comme nt on the results.
e. Comment o n the similarity and differences of these
three prediction approaches. What did you learn
from this exercise?
5. You have worked on neural networks and other data
mining techniques. Give exam ples of where each
of these has been used. Based o n your knowledge,
how would you differe ntiate amo ng these tech niques?
Assume that a few years from now you come across a
situation in w hich neural network o r other data mining techniques could be used to bu ild an inte restin g
applicatio n for your o rganization . You have an intern
working w ith you to do the grunt work. How will you
d ecide w hether the application is appropriate for a neural network o r for another d ata mining model? Based
o n your homework assignments, w hat specific software
gu idance can you provide to get your inte rn to be productive for you quickly? Your answer for this question
might mention the specific software , describe how to go
about setting u p the mod e l/neural network, and validate
the application .
284 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
Internet Exercises
1. Explore the Web sites of seve ral neural network ven-
do rs, such as California Scie ntific Software (calsci.com),
NeuralWare (neuralware.com), and Ward Systems
Group (wardsystems.com), and review some of the ir
products. Download at least two demos and install, run,
and compare the m.
2. A very good reposito ry of data that has been used to
test the pe rformance of neural netwo rk and o ther
machine-learning algorithms can be accessed at ics.uci.
edu/-mlearn/MLRepository.html. Some of the data
sets a re really meant to test the limits o f curre nt machinelearning algorithms and compare their performance
against new approaches to learning . However, some
of the smalle r data sets can be useful for explo ring
the functionality of the software you mig ht download
in Interne t Exercise 1 o r the software that is available
at StatSoft.com (i.e., Statistica Data Mine r w ith extensive ne ural netwo rk cap abilities). Download at least one
data se t from the UC! reposito ry (e.g., Cre dit Screening
Databases, Housing Database). The n apply neural ne two rks as we ll as decisio n tree methods, as appropriate.
Pre pare a re port on your results. (Some of these exe rcises could also be completed in a group or may even
be proposed as semester-lo ng projects for te rm pape rs
and so o n .)
3. Go to calsci.com and read about the company's vario us
business applicatio ns. Pre pare a repoit that summarizes
the applications.
4. Go to nd.com. Read about the company's applications
in investment and trading. Prepare a re port about the m.
5. Go to nd.com. Download the trial version of
euroSolutions for Excel and expe rime nt with it, using
o ne of the data sets from the exercises in this chapter.
Prep are a report abo ut your expe rience with the tool.
6 . Go to neoxi.com. Identify at least two software tools
that have not been mentioned in this chapte r. Visit Web
sites of those tools and pre pare a brief repoit on the
tools' capabilities.
7. Go to neuroshell.com. Look at Gee Whiz examples.
Comment on the feasibility of achieving the results
claimed by the developers of this ne ural network model.
8. Go to easynn.com. Download the trial version of the
software. After the installation of the software, find the
sample file called Houseprices.tvq. Retrain the neural
network and test the model by supplying some data.
Prepare a report about your experie nce with this software.
9 . Visit statsoft.com. Download at least three white papers
of applications. Which of these applicatio ns may have
used neural networks?
10. Go to neuralware.com. Prepare a repoit about the
products the company offers.
End-of-Chapter Application Case
Coors Improves Beer Flavors with Neural Networks
Coors Brewers Ltd., based in Bunon-upon-Trent, Britain's
brewing capital, is proud of having the United Kingdo m's
to p beer brands, a 20 percent share of the market, years of
experie nce, and some of the best people in the business.
Po pular brands include Carling (the country's bestselling
lager), Grolsch, Coors Fine Light Beer, Sol, and Ko renwolf.
Problem
Today's custome r has a w ide variety of options regarding
what he or she drinks. A drinke r's choice depe nds o n various
facto rs, including mood , venue, and occasio n . Coors' goal is
to ensure that the customer chooses a Coors brand no matter
what the circumstances are .
According to Coors, creativity is the key to long-term
success. To be the custo mer's choice brand, Coors needs
to be creative and anticipate the custome r's ever so rapidly
changing moods. An impo rtant issue w ith beers is the flavor;
each beer has a distinctive flavor. These flavors are mostly
determined through p anel tests. However, such tests take
time . If Coo rs could understand the beer flavo r based solely
on its chemical compositio n , it would open up new avenues
to create beer that would suit custo mer expectatio ns.
The relationship between chemical analysis and beer
flavor is not clearly understood yet. Substantial data exist
o n the chemical composition of a beer and sensory analysis. Coors needed a mechanism to link those two togethe r.
Neural networks we re applied to create the link between
chemical composition and sensory analysis.
Solution
Over the years, Coors Brewers Ltd . has accumulated a significant amount of data related to the final product analysis, which has been suppleme nted by sensory data provided
by the trained in-house testing p anel. Some of the an alytical
inputs and sensory outputs are shown in the following table:
Analytical Data: Inputs
Sensory Data: Outputs
A lcohol
Alcohol
Color
Estery
Calculated bitterness
Malty
Ethyl acetate
Grainy
lsobutyl acetate
Burnt
Ethyl butyrate
Hoppy
lsoamyl acet ate
Toffee
Ethyl hexanoate
Sw eet
Chapter 6 • Techniques for Predictive Modeling
A single neural netwo rk, restricted to a single quality and
flavor was first used to mo del the relatio nship between the
analy;ical and sensory data. The neural network was based
on a package solutio n supplied by Neu roDimensio n, Inc.
(nd.com) . The neural network consisted of an MLP architecture w ith two hidden layers. Data were normalized w ithin
the network, the reby e nabling comparison between the
results for the various sensory outputs. The neural network
was trained (to learn the relationship between the inputs
and outputs) through the presentation o f many combina tions of relevant input/ outp ut combination s. When there was
no observed improvement in the netwo rk e rror in the last
100 epochs, training was auto matically terminated . Training
was carried out 50 times to ensure th at a considerable mean
network erro r could be calculated for comparison purposes.
Prio r to each training run , a different training and crossvalidatio n d ata set was presente d by rando mizing the source
data records, the reby removing any bias.
This technique produced poor results, due to two
majo r facto rs. First, concentrating on a single product's
quality meant that the variatio n in the d ata was pretty low.
The neural network could no t extract u seful relationships
fro m the data. Second, it was p robable that o nly o ne subset
of the p rovide d inputs would have an impact o n the selected
bee r flavor. Performance of the neural netwo rk w as affected
by "no ise" created by inputs that had no impact o n flavor.
A more diverse product range was included in the
training range to address the first factor. It was more challenging
to identify the most impottant analytical inputs. This challenge
was addressed by using a software switch that enabled the
neural network to be trained o n all possible combinatio ns o f
inputs. The switch was not used to d isable a significant input;
if the significant input were disabled , we could expect the network etTor to increase. If the disabled input was insignificant,
then the network error would e ither remain unchanged or be
reduced due to the re moval of no ise. This approach is called an
exhaustive search because all possible combinations are evaluated . The technique, although conceptually simple, was computatio nally impractical with the numerous inputs; the number
of possible combinations was 16.7 million p er flavor.
A mo re efficient method o f searching for the re levan t
inputs was required. A ge netic algorithm was the solution to
the problem . A genetic algorithm was able to manipulate the
differe nt input switches in response to the error term from
the neural network. The objective o f the genetic algorithm
was to minimize the netwo rk erro r te rm. W hen this minimum
was reached , the switch settings would ide ntify the analytical
inputs that were most like ly to predict the flavor.
285
Results
After dete rmining w hat inputs were relevan t, it was possible
to ide ntify w hich flavors could be predicted more skillfully.
The network w as traine d using the relevant inputs p reviously
identified multip le times. Before each training run, the network data were randomized to ensure that a differe nt training an d cross-validation data set was used. Network e rror
was recorded after each training nm. The testing set used for
assessing the performance of the traine d network contained
approximately 80 records out of the sample data. The neural network accurate ly predicted a few flavors by using the
chemical inputs. For example, "b urnt" flavor was p redicted
w ith a correlation coefficient of 0.87.
Today, a limited number of flavors are being predicted
by using the analytical data. Sensory response is extremely
complex, w ith many potential interactions and h ugely variable sensitivity thresho lds. Standard instrumental a nalysis
te nds to be of gross parameters, and for practical and economical reasons, many flavor-active compounds are simply
not measured . The relationship of flavor and analysis can
be effectively mod eled o nly if a large numbe r of flavorcontributory a nalytes are conside red. What is more, in addition to the o bvious flavor-active materials, mouth-feel and
physical contrib utors sh o uld also be conside re d in the overall sensory profile . With fmther development o f the input
parameters, the accuracy of the neural network models will
improve.
QUESTIONS FOR THE END-OF-CHAPTER
APPLICATION CASE
1. Why is beer flavor imp ortant to Coors' profitability?
2. What is the objective of the neural network used at
Coors?
3. Why were the results of Coors' neural network initially
poor, and w hat was do ne to improve the results?
4. What benefits might Coors de rive if this project is
successful?
5. What mo difications wou ld you make to imp rove the
results o f beer flavor prediction?
Sources. Compiled from C. I. Wilson and L. Threapleton, "Ap plication
of Attificial Inte lligence for Predicting Beer Flavours from Chemical
Analysis," Proceedings of the 29th European Brewery Congress,
Dublin, Ire land, May 17-22, 2003, neurosolutions.com/resources/
apps/beer.html (accessed February 2013); and R. Nischw itz,
M. Goldsmith, M. Lees, P. Rogers, and L. Macleod, "Developing
Functional Malt Specificatio ns for Improved Brewing Performance,"
The Regional Institute Ltd., regional.org.au/au/abts/1999/
nischwitz.htm (accessed February 2013).
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CHAPTER
Text Analytics, Text Mining, and
Sentiment Analysis
LEARNING OBJECTIVES
• Describe text mining and understand the
need for text mining
• Differentiate among text analytics, text
mining, and data mining
• Understand the different application
areas for text mining
• Know the process for carrying out a text
mining project
• Describe sentiment analysis
• Develop familiarity w ith popular
applications of sentiment analysis
• Learn the common methods for
sentiment analysis
• Become familiar with speech analytics
as it relates to sentiment analysis
• Appreciate the different methods to
introduce structure to text-based data
T
his chapter provides a rather comprehensive overview of text mining and one of
its most popular applications, sentiment analysis, as they both relate to business
analytics and decision support systems. Generally speaking, sentiment analysis
is a derivative of text mining, and text mining is essentially a derivative of data mining.
Because textual data is increasing in volume more than the data in structured databases, it
is important to know some of the techniques used to extract actio nable information from
this large quantity of unstructured data.
7.1 Opening Vignette: Machine Versus Men on jeopardy!: The Story of Watson
7 .2 Text Analytics and Text Mining Concepts and Definitions 291
7 .3 Natural Language Processing 296
7 .4 Text Mining Applications 300
7 .5 Text Mining Process 307
7.6 Text Mining Tools 317
7.7 Sentiment Analysis Overview 319
7 .8 Sentiment Analysis Applications 323
7 .9 Sentiment Analysis Process 325
7.10 Sentiment Analysis and Speech Analytics 329
288
289
Chapter 7 • Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis
7.1
OPENING VIGNETTE: Machine Versus Men on Jeopardy!:
The Story of Watson
'
I I
Can machine beat the best of man in what man is supposed to be the best at? Evidently,
yes, and the machine's name is Watson. Watson is an extraordinary computer system
(a novel combinatio n of advanced hardware and software) designed to answer questions
posed in natural human language. It was developed in 2010 by an IBM Research team as
part of a DeepQA project and was named after IBM's first president, Tho mas J. Watson.
BACKGROUND
Roughly 3 years ago, IBM Research was looking for a major research challenge to rival
the scientific and popular interest of Deep Blue, the computer chess-playing champion ,
which would also have clear relevance to IBM business interests. The goal was to advance
computer science by exploring new ways for computer technology to affect science, business, and society. Accordingly, IBM Research undertook a challenge to build a computer
system that could compete at the human champion level in real time on the American TV
quiz show, Jeopardy! The extent of the challenge included fielding a real-time automatic
contestant o n the show, capable of listening, understanding , and responding-no t merely
a laboratory exercise.
COMPETING AGAINST THE BEST
In 2011, as a test of its abilities, Watson competed o n the quiz show Jeopardy!, which was
the first ever human-versus-machine matchup for the show. In a two-game, combined-point
match (broadcast in three Jeopardy! episodes during February 14-16), Watson beat Brad
Rutter, the biggest all-time mo ney winner onJeopardy!, and Ken Jennings, the record holder
for the longest championship streak (75 days). In these episodes, Watson consistently outperformed its human opponents o n the game's signaling device, but had trouble responding to a few categories, notably those having short clues containing only a few words.
Watson had access to 200 million pages of structured and unstructured content consuming
four terabytes of disk sto rage. During the game Watson was not connected to the Internet.
Meeting the Jeopardy ! Challe nge required advancing and incorporating a variety of QA
technologies (text mining and natural language processing) including parsing, question
classificatio n, question decomposition, automatic source acquisitio n and evaluatio n, e ntity
and relation detection, logical form generation, and knowledge representation and reasoning. Winning at Jeopardy! required accurately computing confidence in your answers. The
questio ns and conte nt are ambiguous and noisy and no ne of the individual algorithms are
289
290 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
perfect. Therefore, each component must produce a confidence in its output, and individual component confidences must be combined to compute the overall confidence of
the final answer. The final confidence is used to determine whether the computer system
should risk choosing to answer at all. In Jeopardy! parlance, this confidence is used to
determine whether the computer will "ring in" or "buzz in" for a question. The confidence
must be computed during the time the question is read and before the opportunity to buzz
in. This is roughly between 1 and 6 seconds with an average around 3 seconds.
HOW DOES WATSON DO IT?
The system behind Watson, which is called DeepQA, is a massively parallel, text miningfocused, probabilistic evidence-based computational architecture. For the Jeopardy! challenge, Watson used more than 100 different techniques for analyzing natural language,
identifying sources, finding and generating hypotheses, finding and scoring evidence,
and merging and ranking hypotheses. What is far more important than any particular
technique that they used was how they combine them in DeepQA such that overlapping
approaches can bring their strengths to bear and contribute to improvements in accuracy,
confidence, and speed.
DeepQA is an architecture with an accompanying methodology, which is not specific
to the Jeopardy! challenge . The overarching principles in DeepQA are massive parallelism,
many experts, pervasive confidence estimation , and integration of the-latest-and-greatest
in text analytics.
• Massive parallelism: Exploit massive parallelism in the consideration of multiple interpretations and hypotheses.
• Many experts: Facilitate the integration, application, and contextual evaluation of
a w ide range of loosely coupled probabilistic question and content analytics.
• Pervasive confidence estimation: No component commits to an answer; all
components produce features and associated confidences, scoring different question and content interpretations. An underlying confidence-processing substrate
learns how to stack and combine the scores.
• Integrate shallow and deep knowledge: Balance the use of strict semantics
and shallow semantics, leveraging many loosely formed o ntologies.
Figure 7 .1 illustrates the DeepQA architecture at a very high level. More technical
details about the various architectural components and their specific roles and capabilities
can be found in Ferrucci et al. (2010).
Evidence
Answer
sources
Primary
search
Question
®
sources
Candidate
answer
generation
Support
evidence
retrieval
Deep
evidence
scoring
Trained
models
Question
Query
Hypothesis
analysis
decomposition
generation
Soft
filtering
evidence scoring
Hypothesis
generation
Soft
filtering
Hypothesis and
evidence scoring
FIGURE 7 .1
Hypothesis and
A High-Level Depiction of DeepQA Architecture.
Synthesis
Chapter 7 • Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis
CONCLUSION
The Jeopardy! challenge helped IBM address requirements that led to the design of the
DeepQA architecture and the implementation of Watson. After 3 years of intense research
and development by a core team of about 20 researchers, Watson is performing at human
expert levels in terms of precision, confidence, and speed at the Jeopardy! quiz show.
IBM claims to have developed many computational and linguistic algorithms to
address different kinds of issues and requirements in QA. Even though the internals of
these algorithms are not known, it is imperative that they made the most out of text analytics and text mining. Now IBM is working o n a version of Watson to take on surmountable
problems in healthcare and medicine (Feldman et al. , 2012).
QUESTIONS FOR THE OPENING VIGNETTE
1. What is Watson? What is special about it?
2. What technologies were used in building Watson (both hardware and software)?
3. What are the innovative characteristics of DeepQA architecture that made Watson
superior?
4. Why did IBM spend all that time and money to build Watson? Where is the ROI?
5. Conduct an Internet search to identify other previously developed "smart machines"
(by IBM or others) that compete against the best of man. What technologies did
they use?
WHAT WE CAN LEARN FROM THIS VIGNETTE
It is safe to say that computer technology, on both the hardware and software fronts, is
advancing faster than anything else in the last 50-plus years. Things that were too big, too
complex, impossible to solve are now well within the reach of information technology. One
of those enabling technologies is perhaps text analytics/ text mining. We created databases
to structure the data so that it can be processed by computers. Text, on the other hand, has
always been meant for humans to process. Can machines do the things that require human
creativity and intelligence, and which were not originally designed for machines? Evidently,
yes! Watson is a great example of the distance that we have traveled in addressing the impossible. Computers are now intelligent enough to take on men at what we think men are the
best at. Understanding the question that was posed in spoken human language, processing
and digesting it, searching for an answer, and replying within a few seconds was something
that we could not have imagined possible before Watson actually did it. In this chapter, you
will learn the tools and techniques embedded in Watson and many other smart machines to
create miracles in tackling problems that were once believed impossible to solve.
Sources: D. Fe rrucci, E. Brow n, J. Chu-Ca rroll , J. Fa n, D. Gonde k, A. A. Kalyanpur, A. Lally, J. W. Murdock,
E. Nyberg, J. Prager, N. Schlaefer, and C. Welty, "Building Watso n: An Ove rview of the DeepQA Project,"
Al Magazine , Vol. 31, o. 3, 2010; DeepQA, DeepQA Pro ject: FAQ, IBM Corpo ration, 2011, research.ibm.
com/ deepqa/ faq.shtml (accesse d January 2013) ; and S. Fe ldman, J. Hanover, C. Burghard, and D. Schubme hl,
"Unlo cking the Power o f Unstructured Data," IBM white pape r, 2012, www-01.ibm.co m/software/ ebusiness/
jstart/ downloads/ unlockingUnstructuredData.pdf (accessed Fe bruary 2013) .
7.2
TEXT ANALYTICS AND TEXT MINING CONCEPTS AND DEFINITIONS
The information age that we are living in is characterized by the rapid growth in the
amount of data and information collected, stored, and made available in electronic format.
The vast majority of business data is stored in text documents that are virtually unstructured. According to a study by Merrill Lynch and Gartner, 85 percent of all corporate data
291
292 Pan III • Predictive Analytics
is captured and stored in some sort of unstructured form (McKnight, 2005). The same
study also stated that this unstructured data is doubling in size every 18 months. Because
knowledge is power in today's business world, and knowledge is derived from data and
informatio n, businesses that effectively and efficiently tap into their text data sources will
have the necessary knowledge to make better decisions, leading to a competitive advantage over those businesses that lag behind. This is w here the need for text analytics and
text mining fits into the big picture of today's businesses.
Even though the overarching goal for both text analytics and text mining is to turn
unstructured textual data into actio nable information through the application of natural
language processing (NLP) and analytics, their definitions are somewhat different, at least
to some experts in the field. According to them, text analytics is a broader concept that
includes information retrieval (e.g., searching and identifying relevant documents for a
given set of key terms) as well as information extraction, data mining, and Web mining,
whereas text mining is primarily focused o n discovering new and useful knowledge from
the textual data sources. Figure 7.2 illustrates the relationships between text analytics and
text mining along with other related application areas. The bottom of Figure 7.2 lists the
main disciplines (the foundation of the house) that play a critical role in the development
of these increasingly more popular applicatio n areas. Based on this definition of text
analytics and text mining, o ne cou ld simply formulate the difference between the two as
follows:
Text Analytics = Information Retrieval + Information Extraction + Data Mining
+ Web Mining,
or simply
Text Analytics = Information Retrieval + Text Mining
TEXT ANALYTICS
Text Mining
Web Mining
Information
FIGURE 7.2
Data Mining
Text Analytics, Related Application Areas, and Enabling Disciplines.
Chapter 7 • Text Analytics, Text Mining, and Sentiment Analysis
Compared to text mining, text a nalytics is a relatively new term. With the recent
emphasis o n analytics, as has been the case in many oth er related technical application
areas (e.g., consumer analytics, completive analytics, v isual analytics, social analytics, and
so forth), the text field has also wanted to get o n the analytics bandwagon. While the
term text analytics is more commonly used in a business applicatio n context, text mining
is frequently used in academic research circles. Even though they may be defined somewhat differently at times, text analytics and text mining are usually used synonymously,
and we (the authors of this book) concur with this.
Text mining (also known as text data mining or knowledge discovery in textual
databases) is the semi-automated process of extracting patterns (useful informatio n and
knowledge) from large amounts of unstructured data sources. Remember that data mining
is the process of identifying valid, novel, potentially useful, and ultimately understandable
patterns in data stored in structured databases, where the data are organized in records
structured by categorical, ordinal, o r continuous variables. Text mining is the same as
data mining in that it has the same purpose and uses the same processes, but with text
mining the input to the process is a collection of unstructured (or less structured) data
files such as Word documents, PDF files, text excerpts, XML files, and so on. In essence,
text mining can be thought of as a process Cw ith two m ain steps) that starts with imposing
structure o n the text-based data sources, followed by extracting re levant information and
knowledge from this structured text-based data u sing data mining techniques and tools.
The benefits of text mining are obvious in the