SWIFT INSTITUTE WORKING PAPER 2021-001 DIGITAL ASSETS AND MARKETS: A TRANSACTION-COST ANALYSIS OF MARKET ARCHITECTURES ANGELO ASPRIS ANNE HAUBO DYHRBERG SEAN FOLEY TALIS J. PUTNINS PUBLICATION DATE: 13 DECEMBER 2022 The views and opinions expressed in this paper are those of the authors. SWIFT and the SWIFT Institute have not made any editorial review of this paper, therefore the views and opinions do not necessarily reflect those of either SWIFT or the SWIFT Institute. 1 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Digital Assets and Markets: A transaction-cost analysis of market architectures Angelo Aspris a, Anne Haubo Dyhrbergb, Sean Foley c, and Talis J. Putninsd,e, 1 a The University of Sydney b Wilfrid Laurier University c Macquarie University d University of Technology Sydney e Digital Finance Co-operative Research Centre Executive Summary This report examines the market landscape for digital assets, including digitally recorded traditional securities and cryptographically secured tokens that represent the building blocks of the future tokenized economy. First, we describe the major asset categories, comparing traditional, centralized ways of recording asset ownership with cryptographically secured and distributed ownership records. Then compare traditional and tokenized forms of equities, fiat currencies and stablecoins, cryptocurrencies, and other digital tokens. We explain how subtle changes in how asset ownership is recorded has fundamental implications for financial market infrastructure including custodianship, trading, and settlement. For example, cryptographically secured tokens can facilitate real-time risk-free settlement of individual trades, reducing or eliminating the need for a clearinghouse, yet create new challenges in custodianship and safekeeping of assets. Second, is a description of different trading mechanisms for investors by analyzing a variety of onchain and off-chain market architectures. We compare centralized limit order book markets, decentralized limit order books, and decentralized liquidity pools (automated market makers, AMMs), in terms of structure, performance, and suitability for trading different assets. We show that there are substantially differences between these market types in settlement risks, latency, and throughput capacity. Third, based on an extensive sample of data to empirically analyze trading costs, we compare the efficiency of different market types (e.g., limit order books vs AMMs) and trading pairs (crypto-crypto, crypto-fiat, digital-fiat, stablecoins). We show that markets for decentralized assets are currently more costly and less efficient than centralized limit order book markets, but the difference is largely because decentralized markets are in their infancy and have not reached the volumes traded in centralized markets. And that as volume shifts to the new market types, their costs fall, narrowing the liquidity gap between centralized and decentralized market architectures – a trend that is expected to continue. This analysis provides a guide for investors selecting markets to trade digital assets and has implications for how financial market infrastructure is likely to evolve as more assets join the “tokenized economy”. Email addresses: angelo.aspris@sydney.edu.au, Talis.Putnins@uts.edu.au 1 adyhrberg@wlu.ca, Sean.Foley@mq.edu.au, 2 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 and Table of Contents 1. 2. Digital Assets: An Introduction ....................................................................................................... 5 1.1. Digital Securities: The Token Taxonomy ................................................................................. 5 1.2. Protocol Layer (“Pure Currency”) Coins .................................................................................. 6 1.3. Decentralized Application Tokens (DApp Tokens) or Utility Tokens ...................................... 6 1.4. Security Tokens ....................................................................................................................... 7 1.5. Stablecoins .............................................................................................................................. 8 1.6. Non-Fungible Tokens .............................................................................................................. 9 1.7. Concluding Thoughts: Tokenomics ....................................................................................... 10 Market Architecture...................................................................................................................... 10 2.1. Digital Asset Exchanges ......................................................................................................... 10 2.2. Organizational Structure of Traditional Markets .................................................................. 11 2.3. Centralized Exchanges (CEX) in Cryptocurrency Markets ..................................................... 11 2.4. Decentralized Finance ........................................................................................................... 12 2.5. Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) ........................................................................................... 13 2.6. Not all DEXs are created equal.............................................................................................. 13 2.6.1. Automated Market Makers (AMM) .............................................................................. 14 2.6.2. Key Insights about AMMs: A Summary ......................................................................... 20 2.7. 3. Data ............................................................................................................................................... 21 3.1. 4. Construction of transactions cost metrics ............................................................................ 22 How well do the different markets facilitate trade? .................................................................... 23 4.1. An overview of liquidity ........................................................................................................ 23 4.1.1. Liquidity and Market adoption ..................................................................................... 27 4.1.2. Tokenized Stocks vs Equity Market Liquidity ................................................................ 27 4.1.3. AMM vs CEX liquidity .................................................................................................... 30 4.1.4. Cost of Settlement ........................................................................................................ 33 4.2. Trade Size Analysis ................................................................................................................ 34 4.2.1. Distribution of Trade Sizes ............................................................................................ 34 4.2.2. Trading Costs for Different Trade Sizes......................................................................... 35 4.2.3. Price Impact Functions for the Different Markets ........................................................ 37 4.3. 5. DEX Aggregators.................................................................................................................... 20 Can AMMs become competitive with Centralized Exchanges? ............................................ 41 Conclusion ..................................................................................................................................... 42 3 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Table of Figures Figure 1: Digital Security Layers .............................................................................................................................. 6 Figure 2: Stablecoin Growth ................................................................................................................................... 8 Figure 3: Stablecoin Market Share.......................................................................................................................... 9 Figure 4: Decentralized Exchanges ....................................................................................................................... 13 Figure 5: Automated Market Makers (AMM) ....................................................................................................... 15 Figure 6: Constant Product Market Makers (CPMM) ........................................................................................... 16 Figure 7: CPMM - Price Impact ............................................................................................................................. 17 Figure 8: ETH-BTC versus S&P500 ......................................................................................................................... 22 Figure 9: Liquidity Gap and Market Share (Tokenized Equities versus Equity Securities) ..................................... 28 Figure 10: Liquidity Gap and Market Share (Centralized Exchange versus Automated Market Maker) .............. 30 Figure 11: Cost of Settlement - Gas Fees .............................................................................................................. 33 Figure 12: Trade Size Distribution ......................................................................................................................... 34 Figure 13: Calibrated empirical price impact curves for markets that trade equities. ........................................ 39 Figure 14: Calibrated empirical price impact curves for markets that trade cryptocurrencies............................. 40 Figure 15: Calibrated empirical price impact curves for all markets. ................................................................... 41 Figure 16: Projected AMM Transaction Costs....................................................................................................... 42 Table 1: Summary Statistics - Tokenized Securities (TKN). ................................................................................... 24 Table 2: Summary Statistics - Equity Securities (EQX) .......................................................................................... 24 Table 3: Summary Statistics - Centralized Exchanges (CEX) ................................................................................. 25 Table 4: Summary Statistics – Decentralized (Order Book) Exchanges (DEX). ...................................................... 26 Table 5: Summary Statistics - Decentralized (AMM) Exchanges........................................................................... 27 Table 6: Regression Analysis 1 - Market Quality (Equity Securities v Tokenized Equity) ...................................... 29 Table 7: Regression Analysis 2 - Market Quality (Equity Securities v Tokenized Equity........................................ 29 Table 8: Regression Analysis 3 - Market Quality (AMM versus CEX) .................................................................... 32 Table 9: Regression Analysis 4 - Market Quality (AMM versus CEX) .................................................................... 32 Table 10: Tokenized Securities - Trade Size Analysis. ............................................................................................ 36 Table 11: AMM - Trade Size Analysis. ................................................................................................................... 37 Table 12: Summary of Findings............................................................................................................................. 43 4 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 1. Digital Assets: An Introduction Against the backdrop of the financial crisis that unfolded in 2008 lay the birth of fully decentralized digital assets that have been enabled by distributed ledger technology. This transformative movement, initially embraced by technologists, anarchists 2 and enthusiasts has rapidly evolved - with the rate of digital asset adoption exceeding any previous global infrastructure rollout - including the internet, mobile phones, or virtual banking tools over comparable periods. 3 A comprehensive range of cryptographic assets such as payment tokens, utility tokens, stablecoins, and non-fungible tokens are among a broad suite of digital assets used and exchanged by consumers, corporates, and institutions. Digital assets can be distinguished from physical assets because they are digitally identifiable and without physical form. Absent, however, from any current debate is a concrete definition that is universally accepted. Terms such as ‘cryptocurrency’, ‘crypto-assets’, ‘digital currency’, ‘virtual currency’, ‘coins’, and ‘tokens’ have become commonplace in the modern vernacular and are used both casually and formally to mean different things. The considerable breadth of the concept of digital assets reflects the ongoing transformation in this sector. Acknowledging the presence of these assets with an eye on regulation, the SEC defines digital assets as those “issued and transferred using distributed ledger or blockchain technology”. 4 Through this technologically neutral principle, digital assets can be seen as securities, currencies, properties, or commodities if ownership and exchange take place on a decentralized digital ledger. Box 1. An important distinction is often drawn between coins and tokens. Cryptocurrencies or ‘coins’ refer to a base currency - and are an integral component of the currency - being its network. The most prominent example of a coin is Bitcoin. Tokens on the other hand, are units built on top of one of the base networks as a secondary feature. They take advantage of a robust and established blockchain network to create these digital assets. The most widely used (Ethereum) standard is ERC20 for fungible tokens and ERC-721 for non-fungible tokens. 1.1. Digital Securities: The Token Taxonomy Overwhelmingly, most financial assets in circulation can be represented and owned in the form of tokens on the blockchain. In blockchain parlance, tokens represent assets or access rights that are managed by a distributed ledger. As access rights, they critically support blockchain networks by enabling access to promote platform usage and incentivize adoption, as well as promote governance by providing rights to participate in protocol development. Numerous taxonomies have been proposed for classifying tokens and are typically based on specific properties associated with the token (e.g. the blockchain layer) or relate to token function or purpose (e.g. utility token versus governance token). 5 The challenge of finding an appropriate classification is beyond the scope of this work, however, to permit a clear understanding of the different types of digital tokens which has implications for liquidity and trading costs, we take a practical approach which emphasizes the layers An early use cases for Bitcoin as documented by Foley et al. (2019) was the purchase of illicit substances. http://charts.woobull.com 4 https://www.sec.gov/files/digital-assets-risk-alert.pdf 5 For example Hu et al. (2019), Corbet et al. (2020), Harvey et al. (2021), John et al. (2022). 2 3 5 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 of the blockchain that can issue tokens or ‘tokenize’ assets. 6 Tokens can either be native to the blockchain, issued on top of a protocol or exist on the application layer. This approach is promulgated by Yano (2020) with a visual representation reproduced in Figure 1. Figure 1: Digital Security Layers In Figure 1, tokens are separated into three categories: crypto-asset tokens (“things”); decentralized application tokens (“companies”) or Protocol coins (“economy”). A more complete categorization is offered in Oliveira et al. (2018) and considers a range of parameters based on purpose, functionality, governance, and technical aspects. Our discussion below explains the differences between the three categories, with explanations provided for key token categories. 1.2. Protocol Layer (“Pure Currency”) Coins The protocol layer (implementation layer) refers to the core architecture of a blockchain system which covers both consensus protocols and incentives to ensure an identical and resilient distributed ledger is created and maintained. The first blockchain coins are native tokens of public and permissionless blockchain networks and are aptly referred to as protocol tokens. In addition to safeguarding the network by acting as an incentive for miners/validators, native protocol tokens may be needed to pay for transaction fees and can be regarded as the currency of the distributed network. Bitcoin, described by Nakamoto (2008), was the first of these currencies. Apart from Bitcoin and Ethereum, popular implementations with large market capitalizations include Litecoin, Solana, Cardano, Polkadot, Zcash, Monaro and Dash. 1.3. Decentralized Application Tokens (DApp Tokens) or Utility Tokens The second category of tokens in this digital asset space are known as Decentralized Applications tokens. They are more commonly referred to as DApp tokens (or utility tokens) and are distinguishable from the previous category in that they are generated from within the blockchain and not backed by an off-chain security or asset. Decentralized Applications are open-source applications 7 that run This framework gives a broad overview of the different properties and types of tokens. It is not intended to be a detailed taxonomy of the different technical, economic, and regulatory properties that could be used to evaluate tokens, rather the intention is to present an overview of the current landscape. 7 Decentralized applications exist in many areas including decentralized finance, social media, and gaming. 6 6 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 autonomously on decentralized blockchain networks, often featuring a native token which serves as a promise to allow the investor to redeem the token - like a voucher on the decentralized application. Critically, these tokens are structured to ensure they do not transfer ownership and control rights, which thus offers scarce legal protections to tokenholders. 8 Most utility tokens are currently created on the Ethereum blockchain, which facilitates their creation and movement from one account to another. An increasing number of smart-contract enabled blockchains (such as Solana and Cardano) also allow for the creation of such tokens. Box 2. Curve is an example of a popular decentralized application. Curve is a decentralized exchange (DEX) that allows participants to exchange assets (primarily stablecoins) through an automated market maker (AMM) approach. Underpinning this platform is the Curve token (CRV), an Ethereumbased token issued by the Curve DAO, which is used by participants to pay for fees, provide liquidity and support low-slippage trading, engage in staking (locking) to support the security and operations of the network, and participate in voting on various DAO proposals and pool parameters. CRV can be thought of as a native utility token of the Curve protocol, where liquidity pool rewards and incentives are paid in CRV to liquidity providers. Its value, however, also rests in the voting rights conferred upon tokenholders in relation to the governance of the protocol. This may require tokenholders to participate in decisions associated with modifications of certain parameters connected with the protocol. The value of these DApp tokens is far from straightforward and is often linked with uses and rights which may vary significantly from one token to the next. DApp tokens can function as a service voucher belonging to a specific protocol, but they may also grant the holder specific ownership, voting or cashflow rights. In the case of the former, as activity in the protocol rises, the resulting demand for the native token will positively influence its value. In the case of the latter, which more closely resembles a traditional equity structure, value is associated with the right to future cash flows and corresponding voting rights. 1.4. Security Tokens Crypto-asset tokens, also known as security tokens, represent assets or values (investment contracts) that exist in the physical world. Like stocks and bonds, their purpose is investment. Akin to conventional forms of securitization and financialization, tokenization ensures the rights of an asset are carried by the digital tokens which can be bought, sold, or traded on the blockchain. This process holds numerous theoretical benefits for market participants such as efficiency gains driven by automation and disintermediation, interoperability, enhanced liquidity, fractional ownership, and improved clearing and settlement (Momtaz, 2021). The standardization provided by tokenizing further promotes fractionalized ownership (i.e., stocks with high prices such as Tesla can be traded in fractions of a share) and global access to investment opportunities that are secured over the blockchain. Box 3. The Centrifuge blockchain is among the very first protocols to tokenize real-world assets, linking assets such as real estate or trade receivables with decentralized finance. Functionally, this could allow a firm to issue tokens representing their livestock to collateralize a micro financing loan, issued on the blockchain (Yano, 2020). Mt Pelerin Group SA was the first company to tokenize all 8 Such tokens have historically been structured to fail the U.S. Howey test, avoiding “security” classification. 7 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 its issued shares on the blockchain in the form of Ethereum tokens on 30 October 2018. The public sale of its tokenized shares (equity tokens), up to 5% of its share capital, was compliant with the Swiss regulatory framework with the intended use of funds covering costs related to the company’s application for a banking license. Tokens owners, like their fellow shareholders, have voting rights as well as dividend rights. 1.5. Stablecoins Stablecoins (or “Stable tokens”) are designed to maintain their value relative to some external unit of account, most typically with a peg to an underlying asset such as fiat currency. Stablecoin usage has grown significantly since they were introduced, with aggregate market capitalizations rising from $US5.5bn in January 2020 to nearly $200bn in May 2022 (Figure 2). This demand for stablecoins is characterized by a growing demand for safe assets in decentralized finance. Stablecoins are however multi-purpose coins and can be used for remittances, as financial rails to trade traditional cryptocurrencies, a medium of exchange for decentralized finance protocols, and employed as a store of value for assets already inside the ‘crypto’ ecosystem. The design of stablecoins is both a complex and evolving process. Stablecoin projects can be categorized by collateral type (on-chain vs off-chain assets), stability mechanism (asset-backed, overcollateralization, algorithmic), or peg (Fiat, Index) mechanism. Figure 2: Stablecoin Growth Fiat-Collateralized (off-chain) stablecoins backed by US Dollar reserves presently dominate the cryptocurrency landscape, with popular examples including Tether (USDT), Circle (USDC), and Binance USD (BUSD). With the emergence of decentralized finance, several on-chain stablecoin alternatives such as MakerDao’s Dai (Dai) and Venus Protocol’s Vai (VAI) coin have gained traction using overcollateralization of cryptocurrency assets to preserve their peg. Algorithmic stablecoins such as 8 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 the now infamous UST used the ability to swap a stablecoin for a ‘volatility coin’ at a fixed exchange rate (ie $1USD) to maintain a peg. Similar to the pegging of the Argentinian peso to the USD in 2002, such a mechanism is only as resilient as the backing supporting it. Figure 3 describes the market share of leading stablecoins over time. Box 4. MakerDao launched in 2014 and is a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO) responsible for governing the Maker ecosystem. The Dai stablecoin was released in 2017, becoming the first stablecoin on the Ethereum protocol. Dai is an on-chain multi-collateral USD stablecoin that is highly composable, allowing DeFi developers to easily integrate it into their applications. Until November 2019, Ether was the only collateral accepted by Maker. Following its transition to a multicollateral model, the MakerDao community have onboarded several collateral types, including other cryptocurrencies, stablecoins, and real-world assets. Figure 3: Stablecoin Market Share 1.6. Non-Fungible Tokens A more complex set of token standards to enable the representation of any asset or access right (e.g., identities and voting rights) has recently emerged. Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are noninterchangeable units stored on a blockchain that indicate the authenticity of ownership. Unlike standard fungible tokens, where all units are stored as a single balance, each NFT has its own unique ID that can be linked to additional metadata, which differentiates the token from other contracts. NFTs are the equivalent of a conventional proof-of-purchase, such as a paper invoice or an electronic receipt (Das, 2022), and cover a broad range of creative expressions such as digital images, video clips, collectibles such as postal stamps and artwork, certificates, and licenses as well as physical assets such as real estate. The validation of an NFT token can add significant value to an asset or access right by guaranteeing provenance, which explains initial use cases in art and collectibles. Importantly for creators of such assets, commissions can be algorithmically generated on secondary market sales, such that a small fraction (commonly 2-10%) can be transferred to the original creator of the work any time it is traded in the future. While NFT’s are predominantly used for the representation of digital artwork or for blockchain-based games, their construction has the potential to be utilized to represent more traditional assets, such as swaps or bonds with unique features. 9 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Box 5. In 2017, CryptoKitties, an Ethereum-based game which allows users to buy, sell, and breed collectible digital cats was launched representing one of the first non-financial use cases for blockchain technology. Applying the concept of card-based trading games (like basketball or baseball cards), each ‘CryptoKitty’ is a unique NFT that is coded to the ERC-721 token standard, which allows attributes of the collectables such as fur or eye color, body or eye shape, as well as ownership records and transfers to be captured. At its peak, CryptoKitties attracted more than 14,000 active daily users with the ‘genesis kitten’ (ID1) selling for more than US$100,000. 9 1.7. Concluding Thoughts: Tokenomics Distributed ledger technology has enabled the management rights of token contracts that can represent anything from fiat currency, shares in a company, voting rights, or a virtual pet. Token contracts can assign conditional rights to token holders and represent any digital or physical asset, or access rights to an asset that is held by another party (Voshmgir, 2021). The ability to deploy these token contracts can help foster markets with fewer frictions, creating more transparent and efficient transactions between market participants. With more than 500,000 Ethereum token contracts (ERC20 compatible) in circulation on the Ethereum main network and over 9,600 cryptographic tradeable tokens, tokens occupy an important position in the management of payments and investments and will undoubtedly continue to redefine and revolutionize the global digital economy in ways we are only beginning to imagine. 2. Market Architecture 2.1. Digital Asset Exchanges Blockchain technology has provided market practitioners with an opportunity to re-imagine the efficient and effective operation of financial markets. In the space of a few short years, liquidity in tradeable tokens has risen dramatically. Since early 2021, centralized exchanges have routinely traded more than $US1 trillion per month, with volumes on decentralized exchange (DEX) peaking at $200 billion in November 2021. 10 To provide context, these volumes rival some of the largest traditional exchanges, including the LSE and ASX. While these crypto markets are traded primarily by retail traders, a growing focus on regulating financial risks has resulted in a greater rate of adoption by proprietary trading groups, hedge funds, and asset managers. Through their participation, the market has expanded further, providing additional financial instrument offerings and sophisticated market protocols in line with the more complex trading preferences and strategies of these user groups. 11 This section will provide a deep dive into the current crypto trading market landscape. We first analyze market design advances in cryptocurrency markets - from the widely used and preferred mechanism for traditional finance, the Centralized limit-order book (CLOB), to the DeFi engineered Automated Market Maker (AMM) model, which is currently the most prominent type of blockchain based https://techcrunch.com/2017/12/03/people-have-spent-over-1m-buying-virtual-cats-on-the-ethereumblockchain/ 10 Source: https://www.theblockcrypto.com/data/crypto-markets/spot (Accessed: 25th March 2022) 11 Foley, Li, Malloch and Svec (2022) document the significant growth in bitcoin options and futures. 9 10 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 decentralized exchange. 12 Following on from this, we quantitatively assess the impact of this market structure on liquidity and transactions costs, and their implications for market efficiency and welfare. 2.2. Organizational Structure of Traditional Markets The organizational structure of financial markets codifies the rules which regulate trading procedures and activity. Around the world, most securities exchanges rely on a continuous double auction undertaken by a centralized limit order book (CLOB) protocol to provide price discovery and liquidity. Under such a system, traders submit buy and sell orders on a pricing grid with a continuous double auction used to find a market clearing price. Order-driven markets are based on order precedence rules that rank and match orders, typically by price and then time. 13 Liquidity in these markets is guided by the constant flow of orders originating from market participants, absent any official designated market makers. In markets where the supply of this immediacy is not forthcoming, market makers are generally employed to reduce the temporal imbalances in order flow and increase the speed of exchange. 14 These hybrid structures combine elements of order-driven and quote-driven markets and are more commonly associated with financial derivative markets. 2.3. Centralized Exchanges (CEX) in Cryptocurrency Markets In cryptocurrency markets, centralized exchanges are the principal venue of exchange for market participants (Svec et al., 2020). CEXs are run by a single exchange, and institute trading rules and procedures that are analogous to their traditional market counterparts to facilitate the price formation process. They primarily utilize a limit-order book, which displays live buy and sell orders which determine the exchange rate of the respective token or currency. The familiarity of this model is enhanced by providing recognizable order types, with most major centralized exchanges offering limit orders, market orders, and stop-loss orders (Dyhrberg et al., 2018). CEXs may accept fiat currencies, stablecoins, tokens, and cryptocurrencies. Movements in tokens and cryptocurrencies to/from the exchange will be evidenced on the blockchain, whilst transactions between currency pairs will exist solely within the database architecture maintained by the CEX. Centralized exchanges typically act as the exchange, the custodian, and the clearing house. This can be problematic in situations where an exchanges assets are hacked – particularly given the inability to recover immutable assets such as cryptocurrencies. 15 Box 6. Coinbase is the leading cryptocurrency spot exchange in terms of popularity and userbase. Since its founding in 2012, Coinbase has amassed over 90 million verified users, with more than $100bn of assets custodied, and $1.8bn in revenues in 2021. It became the first cryptocurrency exchange to list on a traditional public exchange, with a $US100bn direct NASDAQ listing in 2021. Coinbase earns fees and commissions from the exchange of cryptocurrencies, margin fees, and from a variety of other lines - including its payments system and data products. Coinbase cofounded the USD Coin (USDC), a stablecoin which is pegged 1:1 to the US dollar. We deal with the general architecture of the different models without addressing all technological issues. Alternative architectures, such as price pro-rata mechanisms also exist. See Aspris et al. (2015) and Foley, Liu and Jarnecic (2019) for more information on such alternative priority mechanisms. 14 See for example Anand et al. (2009), Anand et al. (2016) and Bessembinder et al. (2020). 15 Such attacks are frequent and common, as documented by Milunovich and Lee (2022). 12 13 11 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Of the 303 spot (cash) exchanges with active markets listed on Coinmarketcap at the end of March 2022, the majority of activity (based on traffic, trading volumes, and liquidity) is consolidated in the top five exchanges which include: Binance, Coinbase, FTX, Kraken, and KuCoin. 16 At the time of finalizing this research report, FTX had filed for bankruptcy and had ceased trading. The reasons for the collapse appear to be related to the business model and how FTX managed (or mismanaged) its balance sheet, although details are still emerging. While this collapse illustrates one of the risks in centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, the trading data from FTX prior to its collapse are still useful to analyze the properties and costs of trading on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges. We include data from FTX in our analysis because, among other reasons, the data allow us to empirically compare trading of equities in two forms – tokenized and not tokenized (traditional equities markets). The rising popularity of cryptocurrencies has enabled the growth of these cryptocurrency exchanges, with individual market share related to a number of factors, including the number of listings, the quality of execution, compliance with local regulations, number of on-ramping currencies, number of order-types, type of liquidity incentive schemes, and the number of alternative offerings. Box 7. Cybersecurity Threats – Since 2012, there have been at least 46 cryptocurrency exchange hacks with more than $US2.6 billion of cryptocurrency compromised. 17 The most common form of breach is through the infiltration of private keys to an exchanges “hot wallet”. In December 2021, one of the most trusted trading platforms, Bitmart experienced a large-scale security breach with a stolen privacy key used to gain access to Bitmart’s hot wallet which resulted in approximately $US150 million worth of tokens being withdrawn. Other leading exchanges such as Crypto.com (January 2022, $US34m), Liquid (August 2021, $US97m) Kucoin (September 2020, $US250m), Binance (May 2019, $US40m), and Mt Gox (February 2014, $460m) have been affected by cybersecurity hacks. 2.4. Decentralized Finance Decentralized Finance (DeFi) involves the simple idea of building traditional financial services on blockchain-based architecture. A DeFi protocol, therefore, is an application-layer program that provides financial service functions such as swapping (trading) or lending assets. Functionally, these financial services exist in the form of smart contracts, which are executed software programs deployed on top of distributed ledger technologies (DLT). 18 Presently, the value locked into DeFi applications at the end of December 30, 2021 exceeds $US230 billion, rising from approximately $17bn twelve months earlier. 19 Specific properties that distinguish DeFi services from traditional financial services and contribute to their popularity include that they are non-custodial, permissionless, transparent, interoperable, and composable. The moniker ‘financial lego’ is often used to explain technical concepts such as composability and interoperability which are key determinants in the growth of the sector. For historical market shares of various centralized exchanges, see Dyhrberg et al. (2022) https://www.hedgewithcrypto.com/cryptocurrency-exchange-hacks/ 18 For a more detailed explanation of the workings of smart contracts, see John et al. (2022). 19 Source: https://defillama.com/ 16 17 12 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 2.5. Decentralized Exchanges (DEXs) Decentralized Exchanges, also known as DEXs, refer to distributed ledger protocols and applications that enable users to transact cryptocurrencies (Aspris et. al. 2021). A critical difference between DEXs and CEXs arises from the fact that DEXs are ‘trustless’, meaning that all transactions occur directly through participants’ wallets. Trading on CEXs, by contrast, requires participants to hand over management of their assets to the exchange to facilitate this process – exposing them to risk should the CEX be hacked or go bankrupt. The creation of DEXs removes the requirement for any authority to oversee and authorize trades, meaning that participants retain their private keys and trade directly from their wallets by interacting with a smart contract. This reduces the risk of exchange-level hacks, but also makes the regulation of financial transactions against things like fraud, corruption, money laundering, and terrorist financing more difficult to enforce. 2.6. Not all DEXs are created equal Traders interact with smart contracts on the blockchain to use DEXs. There are three main types of decentralized exchanges, including: order book DEXs, automated market makers (AMMs) and DEX aggregators (see Figure 4). On-Chain Order Book DEX (OBDEX) Decentralized Exchanges (DEX) Automated Market Makers (AMM) Off-Chain Aggregators (DEXAG) Figure 4: Decentralized Exchanges Order-book DEXs (OBDEX) were one of the first initiatives in the development of decentralized exchanges. As with the CEX model discussed previously, all open orders of currency pairings are found in the order-book, with the exchange of assets resulting from the crossing of these orders. OBDEXs, however, can be off-chain or on-chain. Off-chain refers to DEX platforms which hold their order books off the blockchain, instead operating a centralized limit orderbook, with only the settlement of trades occurring on the blockchain. On the other hand, on-chain order books execute all limit order entry, amendment, and cancellations on-chain while users’ funds remain in their wallets. With an average target block time of 14 seconds (Ethereum), on-chain DEXs have a ‘matching engine’ which operates at a relative disadvantage in terms of speed. On-chain operations also come with a gas fee, making the initial examples of fully on-chain DEXs relatively slow, costly, and ultimately unpopular. Examples of order book DEXs include IDEX, Serum, and MDEX. At present, OBDEX is the least popular form of exchange due largely to liquidity issues (Aspris et al., 2020). Since their operating model is directly comparable to CEXs, the higher fees associated with transacting on the blockchain, and smart-contract related risks associated with off-chain solutions have limited their market share. 13 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Box 8. Most Popular DEX Protocols Protocol Name EtherDelta AirSwap Uniswap Balancer Curve Kyber Network 1inch Protocol Type Exchange P2P / OTC AMM AMM Hybrid AMM Reserve aggregator Aggregator Price Discovery Off-chain order book P2P negotiation Smart contract Smart contract Smart contract Proposal by maker Smart Contract 2.6.1. Automated Market Makers (AMM) The growth in native digital assets has fostered a desire to create better functioning and more efficient methods of exchange that are fit for execution on the blockchain. Digital securities are typically viewed as intrinsically more complex than traditional instruments. As a result, investors face a range of conventional trading problems, such as an underlying lack of liquidity and slower price discovery. In this search for better models of exchange, Automated Market Makers (AMM), through smart contract systems, have become important building blocks, or ‘primitives’ for decentralized finance. AMMs are protocols for providing liquidity and conducting price operations. They encourage passive market participants - likely to hold their assets for long periods - to “deposit” their digital assets to liquidity pools (reserves). Traders may execute orders to trade between these two assets at prices determined by the constant product formula, for a fixed fee yield (Angeris et al., 2020). An AMM is an automated process that allows for the exchange of digital assets according to a fixed formula. Constant formula market makers (CFMM), as a class of AMMs, link the reserves of two or more different assets dynamically, relying on a constant function with specific properties. The constant function is a reference to the value of a certain reserve that must remain unchanged during any transaction. The proliferation of CFMMs is associated with a desire to transact in an autonomous, atomistic, and decentralized way - whilst simultaneously resolving liquidity and price discovery problems that hinder alternative models of exchange. Several prominent AMMs include Uniswap’s constant product AMM, Balancer’s constant average AMM, and Curve’s hybrid model. AMMs rely on liquidity pools and liquidity providers to function. A liquidity pool is a cryptocurrency reserve used to facilitate future trades. Liquidity providers can create new pools or supply existing pools with liquidity, which allows traders to exchange between two assets. The funds provided (staked) by liquidity providers are processed, protected, and are ‘held’ by smart contracts, allowing AMMs to be non-custodial for those who use them to swap between assets. For every liquidity pool that is created, a new smart contract is created on the blockchain. Unlike traditional asset markets where market-making activities are undertaken only by the most sophisticated market participants (for example, Citadel or Virtu), anyone in an AMM can be a liquidity provider and earn fee revenue for the supply of liquidity. 20 The fee is a reward for inventory and adverse selection costs faced by the liquidity provider and therefore commensurate with the bid-ask spread set by traditional market 20 For more information on the importance of sophistication in liquidity provision see Chen et al. (2017). 14 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 makers. 21 Liquidity providers typically earn a share of the fees levied on trades (‘swaps’) by liquidity demanders, which is distributed proportionately to their share of liquidity provided to the pool of reserve assets. Figure 5 illustrates the operational nature of an AMM. In this figure, liquidity providers contribute specific quantities of token X and token Y to the liquidity pool (smart contract). Traders can swap token X for token Y in a particular ratio (the price) that is determined by a pricing protocol. This protocol is the AMM and trader interaction is with the smart contract and not directly with a counterparty, as would be the case in a limit order book environment. In exchange for the risk that liquidity providers take in committing liquidity, a transaction fee is paid by traders, which is embedded into the price. Protocol reward schemes may provide an addition stream of income to liquidity providers, in return for providing liquidity on currency pairs considered desirable by the protocol, similar to the way that companies may directly incentivize market makers in a traditional stock exchange. 22 AMM Liquidity Pool Deposit X and Y token Liquidity Providers Token X Token Y Swap X and Y token Pay transaction Fees Earn Fees (+ rewards) Traders Figure 5: Automated Market Makers (AMM) 2.6.1.1. “Constant” Models of Exchange: Automated market makers apply functions to price swaps based on the number of tokens (liquidity) they have. There are several popular implementations of constant function models, all of which hold constant (ππ) the product, sum, or mean (average), of all trading pair groups. In their simplest form, assuming a two token environment (π₯π₯ and π¦π¦), the price mechanisms can be expressed as follows: • • • • Constant Product Market Maker (CPMM) – where : π₯π₯ × π¦π¦ = ππ; Constant Sum Market Maker (CSUMM) – where: π₯π₯ + π¦π¦ = ππ; Constant Mean Market Maker (CMMM) 23 - where: π₯π₯π€π€1 + π¦π¦π€π€2 = ππ Constant Hybrid Market Makers (CHMM) – where some function of π₯π₯ and π¦π¦ is held constant A key difference, however, is that this fee is fixed as opposed to the bid-ask spread set by market makers which can be adjusted depending on the arrival of information or any prevailing liquidity imbalances. For a more detailed discussion of the rewards to liquidity providers in AMMs see Foley, O’Neill and Putnins (2022). 22 For further information on ‘yield farming’ in AMM protocols, see Han et al. (2021). 23 w1 and w2 represent the proportion of tokens in the capital pool such that w1+w2 = 1. The Balancer exchange function allows for multiples tokens in the pool, where w is the normalized weight of the token such that the sum of all normalized weights is equal to 1. 21 15 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 2.6.1.2. Constant Product Market Makers (CPMM) In a generalized CPMM, the product of the quantity of two tokens in a liquidity pool is constant. This is popularly expressed as follows: π₯π₯ × π¦π¦ = ππ, where π₯π₯ and π¦π¦ refer to the quantities (reserves) of two tokens, A and B, and ππ is the product of these initial quantities. The value of ππ is known as the invariant because there is a constant balance of assets used to determine the price of tokens in the liquidity pool. In a two-token liquidity pool (e.g., ETH-BTC), where one asset is purchased, its price will rise in line with the shrinking supply, thereby maintaining the constant state of balance. This can be visualized with the aid of Figure 6 below. The curve in this figure represents different states of constant balance within the liquidity pool. Trades (or asset swaps) can happen anywhere along this curve. When a trader purchases π₯π₯, this involves removing βπ₯π₯ = π₯π₯ − π₯π₯′ from the AMM and adding βπ¦π¦ = π¦π¦′ − π¦π¦ preserving the constant ππ, π₯π₯ × π¦π¦ = ππ = (βπ₯π₯ + π₯π₯ ′ )(π¦π¦ ′ − βπ¦π¦). As more of π₯π₯ is acquired (and therefore withdrawn from the pool), the price of π₯π₯ increases relative to π¦π¦. 24 Figure 6: Constant Product Market Makers (CPMM) It is important to consider that this function does not scale linearly – it is an asymptotic function, meaning that larger purchases (withdrawals) will result in larger price impact (slippage). It can be observed from the pricing curve in Figure 7 that larger trades (relative to their pool size) move the market, meaning that in order to avoid significant price slippage, both the swap and pool size warrant consideration. For a more detailed discussion of the bonding curve and its impacts for price discovery of cryptocurrency assets see Lehar and Parlour (2021). 24 16 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Among the first and most popular implementations of this model is Uniswap 25, which was established in 2018, supporting only ETH-ERC20 trading pairs. Multiple iterations (v2 and v3) have resulted in improved liquidity (ERC20-ERC20 pairs), enhanced functionality (trades, flash swaps, range orders), and better capital efficiency (π₯π₯ × π¦π¦ = ππ locally in a price range depending on liquidity √ππ within that range). Figure 7: CPMM - Price Impact Box 9. Uniswap Model The primary example of a constant product market maker is Uniswap. The exchange rate in this market is based on the relative size of asset reserves and the amount by which an incoming trade changes this ratio. To further conceptualize this, consider a pool that has 5 ETH tokens (π₯π₯) and 10,000 USDT tokens (π¦π¦). Using the function π₯π₯ × π¦π¦ = ππ, this yields ππ = 50,000: 5 πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ (π₯π₯) × 10,000 ππππππππ π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘π‘ (π¦π¦) = 50,000 = ππ The Uniswap AMM protocol was developed in Solidity on less than 500 lines of code. Its current code is organized in 4 smart contracts and divided into a core and periphery section. The core (pair, factory, ERC20) is for storing tokens and contains functions for adding tokens, swapping tokens, as well as minting and burning functions. The periphery is for interacting with the core. The v3-core code can be found at: https://github.com/Uniswap/v3-core 25 17 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 This product of the two token quantities must remain constant when transactions occur. However, it increases or decreases k when LP’s add or remove liquidity. Now suppose trader A wants to purchase 1 ETH. The swap would reduce the number of ETH in the pool to 4 ETH. Assuming no trading fees in this simplified example, how many USDT must be paid (added) to the pool so that the constant ππ is maintained? To calculate this: (π₯π₯ − βπ₯π₯)(π¦π¦ + βπ¦π¦) = ππ βπ¦π¦ = βπ¦π¦ = ππ − π¦π¦ π₯π₯ − βπ₯π₯ 50,000 − 10,000 (5 − 1) βπ¦π¦ = 2,500 This results in 2,500 USDT, which is the amount that would need to be deposited to acquire 1 ETH. It implies a trade price of $2,500 per ETH. The calculated price ensures that the invariant is satisfied (4 πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ × 12,50 ππππππππ = 50,000) after the exchange and the price of the trade is: βπ¦π¦ ππππ = = $2,500 ππππππππ/πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ βπ₯π₯ If buying 1 ETH will cost $2,500, this can be thought of as the ask price (ππππ ) since it is the price at which the AMM sells 1 unit of ETH to the trader. What about the bid price (ππππ ) at which a trader could sell 1 ETH? Repeating the calculation for a 1 ETH sell order, we get: (π₯π₯ + βπ₯π₯)(π¦π¦ − βπ¦π¦) = ππ βπ¦π¦ = π¦π¦ − ππ π₯π₯ + βπ₯π₯ βπ¦π¦ = 10,000 − ππππ = 50,000 (5 + 1) βπ¦π¦ = 1,666.66 βπ¦π¦ = $1,666.66 ππππππππ/πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ βπ₯π₯ So, we have an implied bid/ask of $1,666.66 / $2,550 for a trade size of 1 ETH. From these implied bid and ask prices we can compute an implied bid-ask spread for an assumed 1 ETH trade size: ($2,500-$1,666) / (($2,500+$1,666)/2) = 40%. While a 40% bid-ask spread may seem large, that is because we consider a large trade relative to the amount of liquidity in the AMM: the trade consumes 20% of the total ETH liquidity. What if we considered a smaller trade? What if there were more tokens (liquidity) in the AMM, i.e., a lager ππ? 18 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 If we repeat the process above, but this time with the trader trading only 0.01 ETH the bid and ask prices equate to $999 and $1001, respectively, implying a bid-ask spread of ($1001-$999) / (($1001+$999)/2) = 0.20% We can see from this example that the size of trades (relative to the size of the pool), increases the cost of transacting. This design feature of making it infinitely expensive to consume the whole amount of a certain coin has the intended effect of preserving the liquidity of the pool. 2.6.1.3. Alternative Models Constant Mean Market Maker (CMMM) This is a variation of the constant product model designed to allow liquidity pools with more than two tokens and non-standard weights. An example of a CMMM implementation is the Balancer AMM. 26 Constant Sum Market Maker (CSMM) In this variant, the multiplication of the constant product is replaced with an additive function: x + y = k. In other words, liquidity in the pool is equal to the total value of Asset X and Y. An example of this implementation is the mStable protocol. 27 Such implementations result in a linear price curve, rather than an asymptotic price. This is predominantly used for assets whose value is not expected to vary relative to each other (i.e., USDT vs USDC). Hybrid CFMM A hybrid constant function allows for any number of unique parameters in the pool. A hybrid function could for example include a combination of constant product and constant sum or an entirely new expression. Curve 28 is an exchange liquidity pool on Ethereum that adopts a hybrid function. Such implementations typically allow for a constant sum (i.e., linear) pricing when the pool is relatively evenly populated by the two assets, moving towards a constant product (i.e., asymptotic) pricing when the pool becomes unbalanced. Such implementations were critical in the de-pegging event of the UST stablecoin during 2022. When the USDC/UST pools were relatively equivalent (because both had a value of $1 USD) a constant sum (linear) pricing was applied. As the de-pegging event led traders to dump the devaluing UST in favor of USDC, a constant product (asymptotic) pricing became dominant, ensuring that the price of UST would rapidly fall towards zero. Box 10. Risks of Liquidity Provision – Impermanent Loss: Liquidity providers face the potential of value loss, often referred to as “impermanent loss” by participating in AMM liquidity pools. In simple terms, impermanent loss can be thought of as the ‘loss’ to investors when assets are locked into a liquidity pool instead of being held (or lent/staked). The impermanent part of this phrase alludes to the fact that this loss is not permanent, because, under the mean reversion assumption, price will return to its equilibrium value – therefore, a loss in only realized if investors withdraw from the liquidity pool before this point is reached. This loss depends on the degree of correlation between the assets in the pool as well as its size, with less correlated assets (e.g., stablecoins) in Whitepaper - https://balancer.fi/whitepaper.pdf https://mstable.org/ 28 https://curve.fi/ 26 27 19 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 larger pools (or pools where the ratio of their locked funds is not equal) mitigating the potential for such loss. Further, different protocols and mechanisms may moderate such loss, with impermanent loss potentially greater under a constant sum rule relative to a constant product rule. 2.6.2. Key Insights about AMMs: A Summary • • • • • • • • Trades are conducted via swaps in liquidity pools. There is no order-book. Smaller traders typically face lower slippage costs under an AMM mechanism relative to an order-book mechanism. Price is determined by a mathematical function and is not the ‘last price’ as in the order book. Trading pairs found on centralized exchange exist as individual liquidity pools in AMMs. There are no dedicated market makers in liquidity pools, any participant can provide liquidity. Liquidity providers earn fees (and potentially protocol token rewards) for providing liquidity but face risks such as impermanent loss. Investors obtain immediate liquidity from liquidity pools without exchange counterparties. Due to the decentralized nature of AMMs, any ERC-20 token can be permissionlessly listed on a decentralized protocol. Box 11. How to Provide Liquidity in Uniswap In Uniswap v3, liquidity providers go through four key steps to provide liquidity. The first step involves selecting a pair of tokens they wish to provide liquidity to. This can be any pair of ERC-20 tokens, and where there is no current pool, liquidity providers can create a new market. The second step involves reviewing the fee tier. Default fee tiers align with the type of token, stablecoin fees set at a lower level as compared to exotic pairs where liquidity providers take on higher levels of price risk. The third step in this process, which is distinct from Uniswap v2, involves setting a price range in which to provide liquidity. In the former iteration, all users provided liquidity across the entire price curve, however, in its current form liquidity providers specify a price range within which they are willing to provide liquidity. Liquidity providers then formalize this by deciding how much capital to contribute to this position and deposit proportional amounts of the token pair. Once this transaction is approved, liquidity providers need to action the transfer of tokens from their wallet to the smart contract. 2.7. DEX Aggregators Aggregators have emerged to address the growing problem of liquidity fragmentation and execution quality across numerous available decentralized exchanges. 29 Decentralized exchange aggregators are blockchain-based applications with cross-chain functionality that enable users to access liquidity pools from multiple DEXs. DEX aggregators provide search convenience and improved quality of execution, with the latter aided through the optimization of exchange rates, token pricing, and slippage. Aggregators in decentralized markets are conceptually similar to smart order routing (SOR) technology employed by exchanges and brokers in traditional financial markets. SORs automate the process of handling orders by identifying opportunities to optimize execution quality across fragmented markets, as discussed in detail in Foucault and Menkveld (2008). Like smart order routers, DEX aggregators can exhibit different levels of performance based on factors such as quoted price accuracy, gas usage, reversion rates, response times and preferences associated with order splitting through algorithmic 29 Similar issues have been experienced and addressed in equity markets. See for example Aitken et al. (2017). 20 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 optimization. As at the end of January 2022, nearly $US19bn worth of crypto trading volume was transacted through DEX aggregators with the leading aggregators 1inch and Matcha responsible for over 80% of this activity. Despite some clear benefits from pooling liquidity sources in fragmented markets, it should be noted that at present most trading activity is concentrated in a small handful of DEXs, which limits the effectiveness of these aggregators. Furthermore, whilst aggregators help to address transactional slippage, they are not designed to deal with slippage issues associated with the practice of miner extractable value (MEV). 30 MEV is a practice linked to decentralized finance where miners (or validators under proof of stake environment) manipulate order transactions to extract profits – similar to front-running or trading on order flow documented in traditional equity markets (i.e. Van Kervel and Menkveld (2019). MEV typically arises from structural arbitrage trading strategies, with miners indirectly profiting from trader transaction fees (MEV ‘bots’ vie for the opportunity to front-run orders by diverting an increasing share of the profits to miners). Nevertheless, despite these issues, aggregators hold a unique position in the DeFi market that appeals to a variety of user groups. Box 12. 1inch (DEX aggregator) – 1inch is a leading DEX aggregator that emerged from an ETH hackathon in 2019. Founded by Sergej Kunz and Anton Bukov, 1inch has grown to cover over 50 DEXs across 8 blockchain networks, including Ethereum, Polygon, and BNB chain. 1inch uses a proprietary API called Pathfinder which contains a discovery and routing algorithm that is designed to ensure the most favorable outcome for traders expressed in terms of overall execution quality. 3. Data Our analysis includes data from a wide variety of sources. We extract DEX/AMM data directly from the Ethereum blockchain. We run our own full historical node, and then parse transactions relating to various protocols. This identifies the assets traded within a swap (i.e., Number of Asset A sold, and Number of Asset B received), block number, date, and time (of block confirmation), as well as the individual user ‘trading’ with the protocol. The ratio of Asset A traded for Asset B provides us with an implicit ‘price’ for each transaction. We extract centralized cryptocurrency exchange data directly from Tardis.dev and examine three of the largest markets by total trading volume: Binance, Kraken, and Coinbase. We sourced tokenized equity trades on the FTX exchange (prior to its collapse) from Tardis.dev. Tardis provides the timestamp on each trade (to the millisecond), as well as the direction of the trade (buyer or seller initiated), price, and volume. We also source the best-bid and ask quotes from these markets, which are updated every time there is a quote update. Equity market data (used for comparison with tokenized equities) is downloaded from Refinitiv, a Thompson Reuters product, for all securities which had tokenized representations on FTX. Our primary analysis examines June 2020 to May 2021. This sample allows us to capture the periods through which both DEX and AMM markets have considerable market share. With the introduction of Uniswap V2 in May 2020, DEX volumes peaked around August 2020, and were rapidly replaced by utilization of the Uniswap V2 AMM. 30 For more information on the causes and effects of MEV see Daian et al. (2020). 21 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 This sample also covers good examples of both bull and bear markets, periods of extreme volatility and relative calm, which can be evidence from the price graph below. Figure 8 shows the price for the two major cryptocurrency assets (Ethereum and Bitcoin) which together account for more than 60% of the overall market capitalization of the cryptocurrency space alongside the S&P500 Index. Figure 8: ETH-BTC versus S&P500 3.1. Construction of transactions cost metrics In markets that utilize traditional limit orderbook structures (such as US Equity markets, tokenized securities traded on FTX, and centralized cryptocurrency exchanges), it is possible to compute standard measures of transactions costs, including effective spread, realized spread, and price impact. 31 Effective spreads are calculated as the difference between the trade price and the prevailing Best Bid and Offer (BBO) midpoint and reflect the implicit transaction cost for small round-trip trades at the best quotes. As there is no national aggregator of quotes on centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, we use the prevailing quotes on each exchange respectively. Realized spreads compare trade prices with the BBO midpoint prevailing at a specified reference time after the trade, as a proxy for the profits earned by liquidity providers. Following Conrad et al. (2015), realized spreads are calculated at a horizon of thirty seconds after each trade. Price impact, which is a measure of adverse selection risk, is computed as the difference between the midpoint at a reference time after the trade and the prevailing midpoint at the time of the trade. At the trade level (π‘π‘), the three measures are: 31 For further information on the construction of standard measures of market quality see Foley et al. (2016). 22 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 πΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈπΈ πππππππππππππ‘π‘ = 2π·π·π‘π‘ π π π π π π π π π π π π π π π π πππππππππππππ‘π‘ = 2π·π·π‘π‘ ππππππππππ πΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπΌπ‘π‘ = 2π·π·π‘π‘ (πππππππππππ‘π‘ −πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ ) πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ 10,000 (πππππππππππ‘π‘ −πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘+30π π π π π π π π π π π π π π ) πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ (πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘+30π π π π π π π π π π π π π π −πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ ) πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ (1) 10,000 10,000 (2) (3) where π·π·π‘π‘ is the direction of the trade, taking a value of +1 (-1) for buyer (seller) initiated trades. These metrics are in basis points. We aggregate them from trade-level measures to a measure per day (ππ) and asset pair (ππ) by taking a volume-weighted average across the trades. Unlike centralized exchanges, AMMs do not display quotes. Therefore, to approximate the above measures for AMMs and other decentralized exchanges, we use the prevailing best quotes on the largest centralized exchange, Binance, for the respective symbols to calculate the πππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ input to the formulas. We do have the other inputs for AMMs: (i) a price for each trade in an AMM taken from blockchain data, and (ii) AMM trade initiators are visible, making it possible to uniquely identify each transaction as buyer initiated (D = +1) or seller initiated (D = -1). 4. How well do the different markets facilitate trade? 4.1. An overview of liquidity To better understand the differences between the markets used, we first construct descriptive statistics for each of the markets. Table 1 and Table 2 document the average price, trade size, daily $Volume, number of trades, volatility, transactions costs and depth for the 26 equities that were also traded in tokenized form. The differences between the two are immediately apparent. While the average prices of the assets traded across both exchanges are approximately equal, which is to be expected since they represent the same US-listed assets over the same period, the tokenized securities exhibit significantly lower levels of trade activity. While the mean (median) equity trade size is $13,918 ($8782), tokenized security trades are an order of magnitude smaller - $579 ($120). The number of trades per securityday is also significantly lower for the tokenized exchange – where the tokenized securities average 33 trades per day, their equity market counterparts average 151,000 daily trades. The smaller number of trades, combined with the smaller value of trades results in significantly lower average traded $Volume - $25,000 in tokenized securities vs $3bn for equity markets. Trading costs are also significantly higher for the tokenized securities: quoted spreads average 83bps – over 10 times higher than the 8bps in their equity market counterparts. Similar differences in magnitudes are observed for the effective spread, realized spread and price impact measures. While quoted depth is much higher in the tokenized equities ($28,000 vs $2,000) this is reflective of the significantly wider quoted spreads observed – larger depths are to be expected if the cost of trading at those depth levels is over 10 times larger. 23 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Table 1: Summary Statistics - Tokenized Securities (TKN). The table shows summary statistics for tokenized equity securities. The price is the traded price of the symbols traded on the venue. The trade size is in USD. The volume is the total daily traded volume in USD. The number of trades counts the number of daily trades by symbol. Volatility (high-low) is the difference between the 30-minute high-low trade price over the high-low midpoint. The 30-minute metric is then averaged by symbol date. The volatility (midpoint) metric is the daily standard deviation of 30-minute midpoint returns. Quoted spread is the difference between the best ask and bid relative to the midpoint in basis points, time-weighted. The depth at best is the available volume at the best prices in USD, time-weighted. The effective spread, realized spread and price impact are volume weighted and in basis points. The realized spread and price impacts use a horizon of 30 seconds. n Mean Median StdDev Min Max Price 4,288 342.201 125.755 644.975 3.811 3,340.931 Trade Size 4,288 579.368 120.526 1,469.409 0.340 15,550.660 Volume (USD) 4,288 25,333.466 1,091.931 114,685.821 0.952 1,964,238 No of Trades 4,288 33.646 8.000 147.048 1.000 3,551 Volatility (High-Low) 4,288 0.004 0.001 0.012 0.000 0.193 Volatility (Midpoint - Std) 4,288 72.474 48.262 90.906 2.593 1,451.438 Quoted Spread (bps) 4,288 82.214 60.833 81.218 3.594 901.186 Depth at Best (USD) 4,288 28,895 15,905 34,516 77.244 234,606 Effective Spread (bps) 4,288 73.891 44.822 108.590 0.354 1,796.706 Realized Spread (bps) 4,288 40.341 26.740 96.623 -712.971 1,283.967 Price Impact (bps) 4,288 33.649 13.208 61.109 -43.986 751.624 Table 2: Summary Statistics - Equity Securities (EQX). The table shows summary statistics for traditional equity securities. The price is the traded price of the symbols traded on the venue. The trade size is in USD. The volume is the total daily traded volume in USD. The number of trades counts the number of daily trades by symbol. Volatility (high-low) is the difference between the 30-minute high-low trade price over the high-low midpoint. The 30-minute metric is then averaged by symbol date. The volatility (midpoint) metric is the daily standard deviation of 30-minute midpoint returns. Quoted spread is the difference between the best ask and bid relative to the midpoint in basis points, time-weighted. The depth at best is the available volume at the best prices in USD, time-weighted. The effective spread, realized spread and price impact are volume weighted and in basis points. The realized spread and price impacts use a horizon of 30 seconds. n Mean Median StdDev Min Max Price 9,490 268.789 84.960 563.620 1.828 3,408.408 Trade Size 9,490 13,918.102 8,782.802 14,035.102 756.748 75,410.224 9,490 3,002,644,460 836,489,655 5,828,049,124 344,977 40,977,729,065 No of Trades 9,490 151,686 86,569.000 203,079.982 255.000 1,598,213 Volatility (High-Low) 9,490 0.014 0.011 0.012 0.002 0.169 Volatility (Midpoint - Std) 9,490 0.007 0.006 0.006 0.001 0.055 Quoted Spread (bps) 9,072 8.044 4.533 9.017 0.244 62.795 Depth at Best (USD) 9,490 2,583.68 1,016.06 4,764.32 57.11 40,566.34 Effective Spread (bps) 9,072 7.515 4.410 7.206 0.676 41.964 Realized Spread (bps) 9,072 -1.832 -0.665 4.808 -31.877 11.151 Price Impact (bps) 9,072 9.356 4.937 10.511 -1.084 69.647 Volume (USD) 24 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 We next present summary statistics for our centralized exchange sample in Table 3. The wide dispersion observed in prices is consistent with the nature of cryptocurrency assets. The maximum trade price recorded ($57,130) belongs to bitcoin, while the minimum of $0.003 reflects the smaller ‘meme’ assets in our sample, such as dogecoin. The disparity is further evidenced in the difference between the mean ($2002) and median ($5.899) price. Trade sizes average $839, comparable to the traded values observed in tokenized equities – consistent with their similar clientele (i.e., crypto traders). Daily $Volumes exhibit similar skews, with a few currencies (i.e., Ethereum and Bitcoin) dominating trading. This results in a mean daily $Volume of $21M, whilst the median is only $1M. Transaction costs are higher than equities but lower than tokenized equities, consistent with their higher levels of trading activity. Traders consuming liquidity pay, on average, 31bps. Table 3: Summary Statistics - Centralized Exchanges (CEX). The table shows the summary statistics of a variety of variables by symbol (equities, tokenized equities, or cryptocurrencies) date for each of the market structures. The price is the traded price of the symbols traded on the venue. The trade size is in USD. The volume is the total daily traded volume in USD. The number of trades counts the number of daily trades by symbol. Volatility (high-low) is the difference between the 30minute high-low trade price over the high-low midpoint. The 30-minute metric is then averaged by symbol date. The volatility (midpoint) metric is the daily standard deviation of 30-minute midpoint returns. Quoted spread is the difference between the best ask and bid relative to the midpoint in basis points, time-weighted. The depth at best is the available volume at the best prices in USD, time-weighted. The effective spread, realized spread and price impact are volume weighted and in basis points. The realized spread and price impacts use a horizon of 30 seconds. n Mean Median StdDev Min Max Price 84,059 2,002.510 5.899 7,732.279 0.003 57,130.459 Trade Size 84,059 839.476 577.644 916.033 42.724 11,618.149 Daily Volume (USD) 85,268 21,832,018 1,007,053 151,175,214 0.000 4,193,611,537 No of Trades 85,268 14,898 1,761 67,260 0.000 1,514,527 Volatility (High-Low) 84,059 0.013 0.011 0.010 0.000 0.086 Volatility (Midpoint - Std) 83,930 107.810 88.122 74.425 1.048 594.261 Quoted Spread (bps) 85,134 26.492 16.154 42.979 0.022 711.303 Depth at Best (USD) 85,134 12,538.32 3,274.32 68,110.22 295.72 1881880.53 Effective Spread (bps) 83,987 31.714 18.543 47.599 0.371 957.380 Realized Spread (bps) 83,987 15.224 5.139 34.661 -117.655 493.055 Price Impact (bps) 83,987 13.909 9.122 22.553 -15.604 882.453 Decentralized exchanges are more limited in their scale of activity as shown in Table 4. Our sample period contains only 477 stock-days on which trading activity occurs in our selected symbols. With this relatively sparse activity, trade sizes average around $500. Relative higher level of volatility, and higher effective spreads are indicative of a low-liquidity market. The large price impact (218bps, or over 2%) and negative realized spreads are consistent with DEX’s containing ‘stale trades’ which are ‘picked off’ by opportunistic arbitrageurs. Given the off-chain nature of the limit-orderbook for DEXs and AMMs, we are not able to construct measures of quoted spread or depth. 25 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Table 4: Summary Statistics – Decentralized (Order Book) Exchanges (DEX). The table shows summary statistics decentralized exchange securities. The price is the traded price of the symbols traded on the venue. The trade size is in USD. The volume is the total daily traded volume in USD. The number of trades counts the number of daily trades by symbol. Volatility (high-low) is the difference between the 30-minute high-low trade price over the high-low midpoint. The 30-minute metric is then averaged by symbol date. The effective spread, realized spread and price impact are volume weighted and in basis points. The realized spread and price impacts use a horizon of 30 seconds. N Mean Median StdDev Min Max Price 477 160.138 29.887 167.356 0.040 869.565 Trade Size 477 480.314 329.572 630.403 48.926 10,494.194 Volume (USD) 477 4,140.93 2,461.22 5,227.42 689.80 56,087.39 No of Trades 477 9.038 7.000 5.835 3.000 44.000 Volatility (High-Low) 477 0.005 0.001 0.009 0.000 0.037 Effective Spread (bps) 477 66.300 9.072 121.804 0.000 957.380 Realized Spread (bps) 477 -52.547 -54.895 109.173 -276.589 159.488 Price Impact (bps) 477 218.409 233.550 145.691 6.915 1,116.970 Finally, we turn to automated market makers, represented by UniSwap V2. The results are presented in Table 5. Given that the UniSwap protocol exists on the Ethereum network, there is a lack of nonEthereum assets (i.e., Bitcoin and other native cryptocurrency assets). AMM volumes are approaching that of CEXs, with AMM ‘pools’ trading on average over $12m per day, compared to the $21m for CEXs. The number of trades is significantly lower than their CEX counterparts, averaging just under 1,700 trades per day (compared to 15,000 on the CEX). However, the less frequent number of trades belies a larger average trade size in the AMMs ($4,000 vs $839 in the CEX). The larger trade size is likely a function of the ‘fixed cost’ of settlement required via gas fees (which averages around $30 per trade in our sample). 32 Effective spreads on the AMM are the highest across the various market structures analyzed, at over 129 basis points. This reflects not only the costs of ‘slippage’ (walking the AMM bonding curve), but also the potential for disintermediation activity with on-chain trading – for example, conduct such as front-running or ‘sandwich attacks’, as well as the potential delay in confirming transactions. Felez-Vinas et al. (2021) provide a detailed discussion of the returns to miners from transactions in the Ethereum Network. 32 26 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Table 5: Summary Statistics - Decentralized (AMM) Exchanges. The table shows the summary statistics AMM securities. The price is the traded price of the symbols traded on the venue. The trade size is in USD. The volume is the total daily traded volume in USD. The number of trades counts the number of daily trades by symbol. Volatility (high-low) is the difference between the 30-minute high-low trade price over the high-low midpoint. The 30-minute metric is then averaged by symbol date. The effective spread, realized spread and price impact are volume weighted and in basis points. The realized spread and price impacts use a horizon of 30 seconds. n Mean Median StdDev Min Max Price 3,268 223.395 7.674 462.489 0.040 1,886.755 Trade Size 3,268 3,927.677 2,311.263 4,115.153 0.217 19,275.043 Volume (USD) 3,268 12,039,489 799,706 25,314,689 0.217 289,361,584 No of Trades 3,268 1,699.205 305.000 2,872.393 1.000 16,413.000 Volatility (High-Low) 3,268 0.011 0.010 0.007 0.000 0.066 Effective Spread (bps) 3,268 129.988 81.309 148.929 0.000 957.380 Realized Spread (bps) 3,268 14.156 22.950 31.909 -656.746 153.021 Price Impact (bps) 3,268 121.525 64.527 168.644 0.812 1,116.970 4.1.1. Liquidity and Market adoption To better understand the difference in transaction costs and liquidity between the two markets, we first examine the liquidity gap. The liquidity gap is the difference in liquidity (Effective spread, realized spread or price impact) between matched token pairs on different markets (AMM versus CEX and TKN versus EQX). 4.1.2. Tokenized Stocks vs Equity Market Liquidity Figure 9 shows the liquidity gap (effective spread, realized spread, price impact) between tokenized stocks and their matched underlying equities over the sample period. The figures reveal that as relative volume (blue) in the tokenized assets rises, the effective spread (red), or cost of demanding liquidity, falls. Both realized spread (the reward for providing liquidity) and price impact (the extent to which a trade permanently moves the prices of the underlying assets) are both significantly higher for tokenized equities but decrease over time as the relative volume traded in the tokenized venue increases. This indicates that it may, in the future, be possible for the transaction costs to compress further, albeit such a result would require a significant increase in the relative volume of tokenized equity trading. Despite the increases in tokenized volume share during our sample period, relative trading volumes of tokenized equities remain incredibly low – around 1/5000th of the volume traded on the US equity market venues. Notwithstanding this increase in volume, the estimated effective, realized and quoted spreads exhibit a significant amount of noise, and a slight down-trending pattern. This is likely driven by the noise inherent in the infrequent trading activity of the tokenized equities. 27 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Figure 9: Liquidity Gap and Market Share (Tokenized Equities versus Equity Securities) We next examine the relative differences in transaction costs between tokenized equities and their publicly listed counterparts on traditional exchanges (in this case, all equities are US listed on either NASDAQ or NYSE) in a multivariate setting. In both market settings, traditional combined limit order book market structures are employed. However, as previously observed, there were considerably lower levels of trading activity in tokenized equities compared to public markets. This can be attributed to the infancy of these tokenized liquidity markets, the fact that almost all securities that were traded on FTX were chosen as those stocks that have the highest retail (and overall) liquidity, and the lower number of natural market participants, including liquidity providers, in the tokenized equity exchange.33 Our initial pairwise regression takes the form: ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ = πΌπΌ + π½π½1 ππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½2 $ππππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½3 πππππππππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ + π½π½4 ππππππππππππππππππππ + ππππ,ππ (4) where ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ is a measure of transactions costs (effective spread, realized spread, or price impact) for each asset pair ππ on day ππ; ππππππππππππ,ππ is the average daily price (in USD) of the traded asset, $ππππππππππππππ,ππ is the total daily traded dollar volume, πππππππππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ is the high-low price range scaled by the average of the high and low prices; and ππππππππππππππππππππ is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 for tokenized stocks and 0 for those traded on traditional venues NYSE and NASDAQ. The results presented in Table 6 show that after accounting for factors known to influence transactions costs, tokenized equities are significantly more expensive to trade than traditional equities. Traders in tokenized stocks pay around 140 basis points more than traditional equities when liquidity is demanded. Liquidity providers are compensated with approximately 70 basis points more 33 Boehmer et al. (2021) identify the role of retail traders in US markets, and how to quantify their trading. 28 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 in realized spread, and the price impact of trades is over 69 basis points higher for tokenized assets, indicating that these trades ‘chase’ the fundamental value, likely representative of the fact that primary equity markets ‘lead’ price discovery. Given the mean effective spread for the equities which have been tokenized is 7 basis points, this indicates that trading the tokenized versions of these securities is over 20x more expensive than trading the underlying asset. Table 6: Regression Analysis 1 - Market Quality (Equity Securities v Tokenized Equity).Market Quality is a measure of transactions costs (effective spread, realized spread or price impact); price is the average daily price (in USD) of the traded asset, $Volume is the total daily traded dollar volume, Volatility is the high-low price range scaled by the average of the high and low prices; and Tokenized is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 for tokenized stocks and 0 for those traded on traditional venues NYSE and NASDAQ. Intercept Price $Volume Volatility Tokenized Fixed Effects Adjusted R2 Observations Effective Spread -130.61*** (-14.95) -0.00 (-1.50) 6.28*** (16.17) 55.65 (1.26) 140.13*** (23.37) Symbol, Date 47.81% 13,359 Realized Spread -67.02*** (-8.28) -0.00 (-0.86) 3.24*** (8.77) -38.98 (-0.84) 70.11*** (12.62) Symbol, Date 27.66% 13,359 Price Impact -60.78*** (-10.16) -0.00 (-0.40) 2.88*** (10.85) 110.95*** (3.07) 68.65*** (17.49) Symbol, Date 32.99% 13,359 Traditional equity markets in the U.S. are amongst the most liquid in the world, with thousands of participants and billions of dollars traded per day. They have also benefitted from over a century of continuous development and regulation. The markets for tokenized equities by contrast are young. It is thus possible that this fledgling market has not yet reached maturity, and as it attracts more traders will see liquidity improved. To better understand the interaction between changes in trade activity and liquidity we perform a further regression analysis to include not only a dummy variable for the venue in which a trade occurs, but also an interaction term capturing the proportion of combined dollar volume traded on the tokenized exchange. Our pairwise regression takes the following form: ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ = πΌπΌ + π½π½1 ππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½2 $ππππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½3 πππππππππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ + π½π½4 ππππππππππππππππππππ + (5) π½π½5 ππππππππππππππππππππ × %ππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππ,ππ + ππππ,ππ where all variables are as previously defined, and %ππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππππ,ππ is the dollar volume traded in tokenized stocks as a proportion of total traded volume (Tokenized + Traditional markets). Table 7: Regression Analysis 2 - Market Quality (Equity Securities v Tokenized Equity). Market Quality is a measure of transactions costs (effective spread, realized spread or price impact); price is the average daily price (in USD) of the traded asset, $Volume is the total daily traded dollar volume, Volatility is the high-low price range scaled by the average of the high and low prices; and Tokenized is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 for tokenized stocks and 0 for those traded on traditional venues NYSE and NASDAQ. 29 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Intercept Price $Volume Volatility Tokenized Tokenized × %TokenizedVolume Fixed Effects Adjusted R2 Observations Effective Spread Realized Spread Price Impact -216.89*** (-17.69) -0.01*** (-3.76) 10.45*** (18.49) -11.79 (-0.26) 239.89*** (19.03) -156.32*** (-13.76) -0.01*** (-3.27) 7.55*** (14.20) -108.79** (-2.19) 173.37*** (14.81) -58.19*** (-7.35) -0.00 (-0.28) 2.75*** (7.56) 112.97*** (3.00) 65.66*** (8.24) -5.84*** -6.04*** 0.17 (-8.39) Symbol, Date 48.53% 13,359 (-9.57) Symbol, Date 28.76% 13,359 (0.39) Symbol, Date 32.99% 13,359 While the tokenized exchange remains significantly more expensive to trade than traditional equity markets, the key finding in Table 7 is that as the relative volume traded in the tokenized exchange increases, the transactions costs in this exchange reduce significantly. This evidence highlights the potential for tokenized equity venues to become cheaper as they become more mature, and their relative volume share increases. 4.1.3. AMM vs CEX liquidity We next turn our attention to the difference in transactions costs between the Automated Market Makers (AMMs) and Centralized Exchanges (CEXs). As in our analysis of tokenized securities, Figure 10 shows the liquidity gap (effective spread, realized spread, price impact) for tokens traded on the CEX and AMM. To get a sense of the relationship between the liquidity gap (red) and overall adoption of the AMM (blue), the right-hand side axis, the relative AMM volume share is plotted. Effective spreads measure the cost of trading when an order is executed. The effective spreads show a clear declining pattern, reducing from around 75-125bps in June 2020 to less than 50bps in April 2021. Across this time, the volumes in AMMs have increased by over 400%. Realized spreads measure the rewards to liquidity provision, from the prospective of a liquidity provider. We can see that realized spreads also decline, from around 20bps at the start of the sample to less than 10bps towards the end of the sample. Finally, price impact measures the permanent price impact generated by a trade. These declined from 60-110bps in June 2020 to around 40bps by the end of our sample. Consistent with the other two graphs, AMM utilization over this period experiences a significant increase. Figure 10: Liquidity Gap and Market Share (Centralized Exchange versus Automated Market Maker) 30 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 We next compare the raw transactions costs for assets where trading for tokens is observed in the two market structures across the same sample horizon. Our pairwise regression takes the form: ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ = πΌπΌ + π½π½1 ππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½2 $ππππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½3 πππππππππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ + π½π½4 π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄ππ + ππππ,ππ (6) where ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ is one of our measure of transactions costs (effective spread, realized spread, or price impact) for asset ππ on day ππ; ππππππππππππ,ππ is the average daily price (in USD) of the traded asset, $ππππππππππππππ,ππ is the total daily traded dollar volume, πππππππππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ is the high-low price range scaled by the average of the high and low prices; and π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄ππ is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 for stocks traded on the UniSwap V2 AMM and 0 for those traded on traditional centralized exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance). The results presented in Table 8 show that demanding liquidity in an AMM costs approximately 67 basis points more than trading in a centralized exchange. Liquidity providers in the AMM earn 13 basis points on average more than their centralized counterparts, and the price impact of trades on AMMs is around 83 basis points higher. Keeping in mind that the effective spread has two components – the realized spread and price impact – it quickly becomes obvious that the higher cost of trading on the AMM is driven not by the required returns of liquidity providers, but rather by the significantly higher price impact. This higher price impact is consistent with the fact that the ‘quotes’ on AMMs are uninformed – that is, prices can only be moved by trades. Trades are required to ensure that AMM prices are equivalent to those observed on centralized exchanges. As such, arbitrageurs frequently execute trades at ‘stale’ prices on the AMM, unwinding them on CEXs. This leads to a very high difference in execution costs driven by the permanent price impact of the trades executed on AMMs. 31 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Table 8: Regression Analysis 3 - Market Quality (AMM versus CEX). Market Quality is a measure of transactions costs (effective spread, realized spread or price impact); price is the average daily price (in USD) of the traded asset, $Volume is the total daily traded dollar volume, Volatility is the high-low price range scaled by the average of the high and low prices; and AMM is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 for stocks traded on the UniSwap V2 AMM and 0 for those traded on traditional centralized exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance). Intercept Price $Volume Volatility AMM Fixed Effects Adjusted R2 Observations Effective Spread 101.28*** (16.56) -0.00 (-0.50) -7.45*** (-19.04) 1309.62*** (27.07) 66.97*** (42.43) Symbol, Date 59.42% 42,664 Realized Spread 53.44*** (13.47) -0.00*** (-4.45) -3.71*** (-18.27) 488.91*** (19.55) -12.99*** (-16.89) Symbol, Date 35.95% 42,664 Price Impact 45.03*** (11.99) 0.00 (0.21) -3.39*** (-12.53) 687.48*** (21.66) 82.92*** (65.35) Symbol, Date 58.86% 42,664 To further examine the relationship between AMM volume share and transactions costs, we construct a regression specification which includes not only a dummy variable for the venue in which a trade occurs, but also an interaction term capturing the proportion of combined dollar volume traded on the AMM. Our pairwise regression takes the following form: ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ = πΌπΌ + π½π½1 ππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½2 $ππππππππππππππ,ππ + π½π½3 πππππππππππππππππππ¦π¦ππ,ππ + π½π½4 π΄π΄ππππππ +π½π½5 π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄ππ × %π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄ππ,ππ + ππππ,ππ (7) where all variables are as previously defined, and %π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄π΄ππ,ππ is the dollar volume traded on UniSwap V2 as a proportion of total traded volume (AMM + CEX markets). Consistent with our previous findings, our results in Table 9 show that effective spreads and price impacts are higher in AMMs than on centralized exchanges. As the volume share of AMMs increases, this difference significantly decreases. Interestingly, we find that realized spreads (or the return for liquidity provision) on the AMM is lower than on the centralized exchanges. As the volume traded on the AMM increases, the returns for liquidity provision increase. This is consistent with the nature of AMMs – more uninformed orderflow countervails the impact of arbitrageurs, resulting in a positive effect of liquidity provision as volume share migrates to the AMM. These results indicate that there is a potential for AMMs to ‘catch up’ to centralized exchanges. That is, with sufficient volume, the transactions costs on these venues may equilibrate to the cost of transacting in a CEX, and - with sufficient volume – may even become cheaper than their centralized counterparts. Table 9: Regression Analysis 4 - Market Quality (AMM versus CEX). Market Quality is a measure of transactions costs (effective spread, realized spread or price impact); price is the average daily price (in USD) of the traded asset, $Volume is the total daily traded dollar volume, Volatility is the high-low price range scaled 32 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 by the average of the high and low prices; and AMM is a dummy variable that takes a value of 1 for stocks traded on the UniSwap V2 AMM and 0 for those traded on traditional centralized exchanges (Coinbase, Kraken, and Binance). %AMM Volume is the dollar volume traded on UniSwap V2 as a proportion of total traded volume (AMM + CEX markets). Intercept Price $Volume Volatility AMM AMM × %AMM Volume Fixed Effects Adjusted R2 Observations Effective Spread 86.59*** (14.31) -0.00 (-0.42) -6.36*** (-16.34) 1299.91*** (26.95) 128.20*** (14.00) Realized Spread 78.28*** (20.08) -0.00*** (-4.13) -5.55*** (-28.19) 505.33*** (20.33) -116.50*** (-32.04) Price Impact 0.30 (0.09) 0.00 (0.45) -0.08 (-0.32) 657.92*** (21.41) 269.29*** (43.29) -4.44*** 7.50*** -13.51*** (-7.43) Symbol, Date 59.68% 42,664 (32.37) Symbol, Date 38.55% 42,664 (-32.70) Symbol, Date 64.32% 42,664 4.1.4. Cost of Settlement While traditional exchanges undertake settlement internally on their own database infrastructure (similar to traditional equity markets), decentralized markets such as AMMs require participants to have their transactions validated by the blockchain. Effectively, the ‘matching engine’ is the blockchain on which the underlying AMM operates. In our analysis, we examine the operations of the Uniswap V2 blockchain, which requires approximately 165,000 units of ‘gas’ to execute a swap between two assets (i.e. – see Barbonne and Ronaldo, 2022). To better understand the costs of settlement in these AMM marketplaces, we collect the mean gas fee required to undertake such a transaction for every block in our sample period. We can further compute the $USD value of settlement by multiplying the required amount of gas by the gas price (measured in Ethereum), and then further multiplying by the daily price of Ethereum. Our analysis is shown in Figure 11, which indicates that the vast majority of Uniswap transactions cost between $10-20 (Mean/median settlement costs are $18.8/$15.2) to settle to the blockchain, with extreme cases costing over $100 during periods of network congestion. 34 Figure 11: Cost of Settlement - Gas Fees 34 For a thorough discussion of the Ethereum mempool and the effects of congestion see Spain et al. (2020). 33 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 4.2. Trade Size Analysis 4.2.1. Distribution of Trade Sizes To further understand the costs of trading using these alternative mechanisms, we undertake a tradesize analysis, breaking individual trade pairs up into their component parts, and then compare the transactions costs for individual trades. In these comparisons, it is important to correctly identify individual trades, particularly in non-AMM markets (AMM ‘market orders’ are inherently observable, making their identification unambiguous). For example, an incoming market order interacting with five resting limit orders will typically output five trade reports. To deal with this issue, we follow the standard convention used in the literature. For example, in equity markets we aggregate trade reports with the same direction (buy vs sell) and same millisecond remainder as being part of the same market order, following Jurkatis (2022). In centralized cryptocurrency exchanges, there is significant heterogeneity in the speed of matching engines, meaning that many end up processing the individual limit order components of an incoming market order across multiple milliseconds. For the centralized exchanges considered, we follow the batching mechanisms suggested by Foley, Krekel, Mollica and Svec (2022). Figure 12 shows the relative size of trades in our four exchange types. What is immediately obvious is that trades in tokenized stocks are significantly smaller than trades in their equity market counterparts. This differential is so marked that we constrain our analysis to the region in which we observe trades in the tokenized assets - $0-$150,000. While we note that many equity trades significantly exceed this value, a fair comparison of trading costs cannot be considered outside of the range for which we empirically observe trades in the tokenized equities. For cryptocurrency assets, we observe most AMM trades between $0-$5M, where centralized exchanges experience a significant number of trades both in the $0-$5M range and also between $5$20M, consistent with their more established presence in this asset class. Figure 12: Trade Size Distribution 34 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 4.2.2. Trading Costs for Different Trade Sizes Our analysis of transactions costs so far has dealt with asset-day averages. This has the potential to overweight days in which few trades occur at relatively high transactions costs, as all asset-days are given equal weight. There is also the potential issue that smaller trades may execute at better prices, while large trades may ‘walk the book’, resulting in large effective spreads and price impacts. When these are volume-weighted, it is possible to introduce biases into the computed asset-day observations. Importantly, some exchange structures (such as AMMs) with less ‘fleeting’ liquidity may 35 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 provide benefits for large trades that are not evident for the large number of small trades executed on the venue. To better understand these effects, we undertake regressions at the trade level. That is, each individual market order generates its own observation of effective spread and price impact. We then run a simple regression of the following form: (8) ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦π‘π‘ = πΌπΌ + πππππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ + πππ‘π‘ (9) ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦π‘π‘ = πΌπΌ + π΄π΄π΄π΄πππ‘π‘ + πππ‘π‘ where ππππππππππππ πππππππππππππ¦π¦π‘π‘ is either the effective spread or price impact for each trade, π‘π‘, πΌπΌ is a constant and πππππππππππππππππππ‘π‘ is a dummy variable which takes a value of 1 for trades in tokenized equities, and 0 for trades occurring in the traditional NYSE/NASDAQ markets. Similarly, π΄π΄π΄π΄πππ‘π‘ is a dummy variable taking a value of 1 for asset pairs traded in the AMM, and 0 for asset pairs traded in the CEX. Before estimating these regressions, we partition our trades into four buckets based on the dollar value of the trade. We then estimate the regressions separately for trades whose value is between $0-$1k, $1k-$10k, $10k-$25k, and $25k-$150k. Given the lack of tokenized equity trades outside of the $150k range (our maximum trade size is slightly less than $150,000) in the interest of a representative comparison, we exclude all equity market trades which exceed $150,000 in size. Table 10 reports the results for the comparison between tokenized assets and equity trades. For effective spreads, or the cost of consuming liquidity, we observe that the transactions costs for tokenized equities are consistently higher than those of their centralized exchange counterparts. Small trades are around 63bps more expensive in tokenized stocks, with this higher cost increasing with the size of the trade. In the extreme, large trades of $25-$150k cost on average 128bps (or 1.28%) more than their traditional equity-market counterparts. Table 10: Tokenized Securities - Trade Size Analysis. Tokenized Equity is a dummy variable which takes a value of 1 for trades in the FTX tokenized equities, and 0 for trades occurring in the traditional NYSE/NASDAQ markets. Effective Spread Price Impact $0-$1k $1k-$10k $10k $25k $25k $150k $0-$1k $1k-$10k $10k $25k $25k $150k 63.37*** 91.01*** 118.41*** 128.84*** 97.28*** 109.73*** 88.52*** 82.70*** (10.89) (10.77) (7.41) (32.21) (13.34) (30.54) (20.46) (6.49) 10.87*** 6.01*** 4.77*** 4.39*** 0.33*** 1.44*** 2.21*** 3.28*** (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) (0.00) (0.01) (0.01) (0.00) (0.00) Fixed effects Hour of day Hour of day Hour of day Hour of day Hour of day Hour of day Hour of day Hour of day Observations 7,585,182 6,887,613 3,067,626 3,852,999 7,578,791 6,879,808 3,064,944 3,849,801 R-squared 0.00 0.01 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 Tokenized Equity Constant While tokenized equities also experience higher price impact than their equity-market counterparts, a slightly different pattern emerges, with small trades experiencing 97bps of permanent price impact, and large trades ‘impacting’ the market less severely. This could be due to the high amounts of depth observed in the tokenized exchanges – albeit at significantly wider quoted spreads. 36 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 We next examine the differences in trades occurring on Centralized Exchanges and AMMs. While our method of analysis remains unchanged, we use different trade-size buckets, in keeping with the differing market microstructure of the two markets. In this setting, we compare trades in five buckets: $0-$1k; $1k-$10k; $10k - $100k; $100k - $1M and trades greater than $1M. Table 11 reports the results of the AMM trade size analysis. Consistent with our asset-day analysis, AMMs have significantly higher transactions costs for trades of all sizes. Whilst these are slightly decreasing from small to medium sized trades (67-66bps), they increase significantly for trades of over $1m, being 253bps more expensive, or almost 2.2%. This large increase over CEXs is likely reflective of the large opportunity such trades show for extractive industries such as front-running and sandwich attacks. Permanent price impacts are also monotonically decreasing in trade sizes between $0 - $1m, reducing from 33bps to 30bps. However, similar to our effective spread analysis, for trades greater than $1m this increases over 3x to 125bps. Table 11: AMM - Trade Size Analysis. AMM is a dummy variable taking a value of 1 for asset pairs traded in the AMM, and 0 for asset pairs traded in the CEX. Trade Size $0-$1k Effective Spread $10k $100k $1k-$10k $100k $1M >$1m $0-$1k Price Impact $10k $1k-$10k $100k AMM 67.62*** 67.40*** 66.24*** 68.00*** 220.2*** 34.56*** 32.66*** 30.80*** 29.20*** 103.3*** (0.523) (0.422) (0.580) (4.040) (2.786) (0.322) (0.252) (0.338) (1.930) (3.387) 0.776*** 1.114*** 1.596*** 4.545*** 48.14*** 0.252*** 2.158*** 3.540*** 5.745*** 26.84*** (0.00227) (0.00984) (0.0198) (0.256) (0.382) (0.00140) (0.00587) (0.0115) (0.122) (0.464) Observations 3,829,713 1,377,807 286,137 10,071 73 3,829,713 1,377,802 286,133 10,069 73 R-squared 0.708 0.721 0.683 0.491 0.969 0.013 0.049 0.054 0.074 0.810 Constant $100k $1M >$1m These results challenge the commonly held perception that AMMs provide a more cost-effective means of transacting compared to centralized exchange alternatives. Our results reveal that they are not particularly well suited to larger size transactions. 4.2.3. Price Impact Functions for the Different Markets Price impact is a measure of the permanent change in price that is generated by a trade. In general, larger trades are expected to generate higher levels of price impact given their increased demand for liquidity. Higher price impact results in inferior prices for the liquidity demander, and effectively serves as compensation for the liquidity provider. As a result, the ability of a given market to absorb the price impact of a trade will typically be a function of its liquidity. Due to the large depth typically provided by AMMs, it is often claimed that AMMs provide better execution quality to very large trades. To test this conjecture, we construct price impact curves for the various assets considered. 37 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 For each market, we select one of the most liquid traded instruments and analyze price impact at the trade-by-trade level during a one-week period (March 8, 2021 to March 14, 2021).35 We aggregate trades that originate from a single marketable order by summing their volumes and retaining the last price in the trade sequence. For each market separately, we estimate the price impact curve as follows. First, for each trade π‘π‘, we compute the signed dollar volume of the trade: πππ‘π‘ = π·π·π‘π‘ πππ‘π‘ πππ‘π‘ (10) where π·π·π‘π‘ is the trade direction (-1 for sells and +1 for buys), πππ‘π‘ is the trade volume in shares, and πππ‘π‘ is the trade price in dollars. We also compute each trade’s total price impact - πππππ‘π‘ - (including temporary and permanent components) as: (11) πππππ‘π‘ = 10,000[ln (πππ‘π‘ ) − ln (πππ‘π‘−1 )] where πππ‘π‘ is the trade price and πππ‘π‘−1 is the midquote that was prevailing immediately before the trade. 36 This price impact measure is the log ‘return’ from the market midquote prior to the trade, compared to the trade price, expressed in basis points. Second, because many empirical studies consistently document that price impacts are non-linear in volume, we construct a non-linear signed dollar volume term. Based on the recent empirical literature that characterises the functional form for price impact functions, we use a power law functional form, raising dollar volume to a power, πΏπΏ: πππ‘π‘∗ = π·π·π‘π‘ . (πππ‘π‘ πππ‘π‘ )πΏπΏ (15) The empirical literature finds that the optimal exponent πΏπΏ when fitting price impact curves is in the range 0.5 to 0.7. Several notable studies use exponents close to 0.5 implying the specific case of a square-root impact law, and several empirical studies find exponents around 2/3 (0.67).37 Based on this empirical evidence we fit price impact curves using πΏπΏ = 0.7 for all markets except AMMs. For AMMs, the price impact functional form is determined by the constant product rule rather than the limit order book dynamics as is the case in all other markets. The constant product rule implies a price impact curve that is asymmetric: diminishing marginal impacts for sells (πΏπΏ < 1), meaning a sell order of 10 ETH will have less than 10 times the price impact of a sell order for 1 ETH, but increasing marginal impacts for buys (πΏπΏ > 1) meaning a buy order of 10 ETH will have more than 10 times the price impact of a buy order for 1 ETH. We, therefore, separately fit price impact curves for AMM buys using πΏπΏ = 1.8 and sells using πΏπΏ = 0.8. Third, we calibrate the price impact curve for each market, estimating the following regression: ∗ πππππ‘π‘ = π½π½Μ πππ‘π‘∗ + πΎπΎοΏ½πππ‘π‘−1 + πππ‘π‘ (16) For AMMs, we use the ETH-USDT pair. Correspondingly, for CEX, we select Binance and use the ETH-USDT pair. For tokenised equities, we select GME (GameStop) due to its high trading activity, and correspondingly, for equities we also consider GME for comparison. 36 The midquote is the average of the best bid and best ask in the market at the time. For AMMs, the midquote is taken from the CEX. 37 Square-root impact laws have been used in industry models of price impact functions (Torre, 1997) and various price impact studies (e.g., Gabaix et al. (2003, 2006) and Hopman (2007)). Exponents around 2/3 have been documented by Almgren et al. (2005), Bershova and Rakhlin (2013), and Zhou (2012), among others. Several studies illustrate the universality of price impact functional forms across different assets and market types underpinned by common theoretical basis (e.g., Gabaix et al. 2003, 2006; Lillo et al., 2003; Zhou, 2012). 35 38 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 ∗ where πππ‘π‘−1 is included as a control variable due to serial correlation in price impacts. Non-linearity is captured through the terms πππ‘π‘∗ which are signed powers of dollar volume. Fourth, we plot the calibrated price impact curves in the above model, using the estimated values of π½π½Μ. The results are in Figures 13-15 below. Figure 13 compares the two markets that trade equities – Panel A is the traditional equities market (NYSE, Nasdaq), whereas Panel B is for tokenized equities. In both cases we obtain a very “standard” price impact curve - with buys pushing prices up and sells pushing prices down, but at a decreasing marginal rate as the trade volume increases. The scales of the vertical axes reveal a substantial difference in liquidity. The traditional equity markets can handle much larger trades for a given price impact than can the tokenized equities market which is currently far less liquid. For example, a $100,000 buy is estimated to have a price impact of around 10 bps in the traditional equities market, whereas in the market for tokenized stocks, the price impact of such a trade is estimated as closer to 600 bps. Panel A: Total price impact curve for stocks Panel B: Total price impact curve for tokenized stocks Figure 13: Calibrated empirical price impact curves for markets that trade equities. The figure shows the estimated total price impact in basis points (vertical axis) for different trade sizes (horizontal axis), based on the calibrated price impact model given in equation (4). Negative signed dollar volumes are sells and positive values are buys. For example, -$50,000 on the horizontal axis is a sell with trade value $50,000. Panel A is the traditional equities market (NYSE, Nasdaq), whereas Panel B is for tokenized equities. Note that the vertical axis scale is different in the two plots. The models are calibrated using a week of trade-by-trade data in March 2021. Figure 14 compares the two markets that trade cryptocurrencies – Panel A is a centralized exchange (Binance), whereas Panel B is a decentralized automated market maker, AMM (UniSwap). The calibrated price impact curve for the CEX, like equities, has a very “standard” shape - with decreasing marginal price impacts as the trade volume increases. The CEX appears to be more liquid as it has a smaller price impact for a given trade size. In contrast, the price impact curve for the AMM is not like standard price impact curves – it is asymmetric and because of the constant pricing function, price impact increases at an accelerating rate for buys (increasing marginal impact) but increasing at a decelerating rate for sells (decreasing marginal impact). Note also that these are calibrated empirical curves with price impact measured relative to the CEX midpoint, as opposed to theoretical price impact curves inferred from the AMM 39 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 pricing function. The AMM price impact curve also shows that the AMM tends to be a relatively lowcost venue for executing small buy trades, compared to executing sells. For example, a $50,000 buy in the AMM is estimated to have a price impact of 2 bps above the CEX midpoint, whereas a $50,000 sell in the AMM is estimated to have a price impact of 30 bps below the CEX midpoint. 38 Comparing scales between Panels A and B of Figure 14, the AMM is less liquid than the CEX as it tends to have significantly larger price impacts overall. Particularly, with respect to large buys, the accelerating price impact of the AMM renders it an expensive venue in comparison to the CEX. For example, a $200,000 buy is estimated to have a price impact of around 30 bps in the AMM, whereas in the CEX, the price impact of such a trade is estimated at a mere 3 bps. Panel A: Total price impact curve for CEX Panel B: Total price impact curve for AMMs Figure 14: Calibrated empirical price impact curves for markets that trade cryptocurrencies. The figure shows the estimated log total price impact in basis points (vertical axis) for different trade sizes (horizontal axis), based on the calibrated price impact model given in equation (4). Negative signed dollar volumes are sells and positive values are buys. For example, -$50,000 on the horizontal axis is a sell with trade value $50,000. Panel A is a centralized exchange (Binance), whereas Panel B is a decentralized automated market maker, AMM (UniSwap). Note that the vertical axis scale is different in the two plots. The models are calibrated using a week of trade-bytrade data in March 2021 for the asset pair ETH-USDT. Figure 15 aggregates the price impact curves of the four markets on a single plot with the same axis scale to give a better perspective of the differences in liquidity. The figure shows that tokenized stocks are a clear outlier with the steepest price impact curves (least liquidity). Tokenized equities are followed by AMMs in terms of liquidity, with CEX and traditional equities being the most liquid markets with comparatively flat price impact curves. This asymmetry may be a function of the specific period chosen for the analysis and the average price differential between the AMM and CEX during that period. 38 40 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Figure 15: Calibrated empirical price impact curves for all markets. The figure shows the estimated log total price impact in basis points (vertical axis) for different trade sizes (horizontal axis), based on the calibrated price impact model given in equation (4). Negative signed dollar volumes are sells and positive values are buys. For example, -$50,000 on the horizontal axis is a sell with trade value $50,000. The models are calibrated using a week of trade-by-trade data in March 2021. 4.3. Can AMMs become competitive with Centralized Exchanges? Our analysis so far has identified that trading costs for digital assets traded using this the new market infrastructure provided by AMMs significantly exceed those of their existing market counterparts. Further, we have shown that as the market share in AMMs increases, the costs of transacting falls. A natural question then arises: how much activity would need to be present on the AMMs to bring their trading costs down to levels observed in the Centralized Exchanges? We empirically address this question by estimating quoted and effective spreads as a function of the venue in which they trade, and an interaction term for the relative proportion of volume traded in the AMM. Using the parameter estimates, we are then able to project future levels of AMM trading activity that would result in comparable costs with the CEX. 39 The results presented in Figure 16 indicate that the AMM effective spread falls to approximately 30bps (our sample mean for CEXs) when relative activity reaches 165% of the CEX. Similarly, AMM volume would need to reach approximately 150% of the current CEX volumes to match the 13.9bps sample mean price impact for CEXs. Given the significant growth rates in AMM usage and adoption as documented in Aspris et al. (2021), AMM activity increasing by 150% could feasibly occur within the span of a single year, implying AMMs may shortly become cost competitive with traditional market structures, which trade cryptocurrencies. Due to the incredibly small market share of tokenized equities that were traded on FTX (less than 0.1% of combined trading volume) we cannot reliably estimate any reasonable volume for which 39 Noting that the current relative market share used in our estimates is approximately 35%. 41 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 transactions costs may become equivalent to their equity market counterparts, suggesting that significant development of this market would be necessary before it could become cost competitive. 140 120 100 Basis Points 80 60 40 20 -20 35% 40% 45% 50% 55% 60% 65% 70% 75% 80% 85% 90% 95% 100% 105% 110% 115% 120% 125% 130% 135% 140% 145% 150% 155% 160% 165% 170% 175% 180% 185% 190% 195% 200% 0 -40 -60 AMM Effective Spread AMM Price Impact Figure 16: Projected AMM Transaction Costs 5. Conclusion The emergence of blockchain technology has seen the creation and digitization of new, cryptographically secured digital assets. These include cryptocurrencies such as Bitcoin and Ethereum as well as digital tokens reflecting ownership of both traditional assets (e.g., equities, fiat currencies) and more recent asset types (e.g., governance tokens, art NFTs). Recent innovations have allowed traditional securities and financial instruments to be tokenized and thus stored and transferred on public blockchains. This innovation in tokenization of assets has spurred further advances in the way assets are traded and settled, generating entire new paradigms in markets such as decentralized exchanges and automated market makers. While these innovations have generated much fanfare and future promise, research about these market types to date is limited. This research report provides the first rigorous analysis of trading costs associated with these new markets for digital assets. We first compare traditional equity exchanges (NYSE/NASDAQ) and their tokenized counterparts. Our findings show that the market for tokenized equities is in its infancy: implicit transactions costs such as effective spreads are 10 times higher than in traditional equities markets, with the explicit costs of trading (exchange fees) more than 2 times as large. While tokenized equities present some potential benefits – fractionalized shares, 24-hour trading, global accessibility, instant riskless settlement – these have yet to attract sufficient interest to generate a competitive and active marketplace. Next we analyze the trading of cryptocurrencies and tokens on their blockchains, such as stablecoins and utility tokens. We examine three market types: (i) Centralized Exchanges (CEX) operating central limit order books (Coinbase, Binance, and Kraken); (ii) Decentralized Exchanges (DEX) that offer limit 42 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 order books; and (iii) Automated Market Makers that use liquidity pools and bonding curves to facilitate transactions. Trading costs in all cryptocurrency trading venues exceed those in traditional equity markets. Among the cryptocurrency trading venues, centralized exchanges are the cheapest, with transaction costs averaging 32bps (approximately 4 times more expensive than trading equities). DEXs are approximately 2 times more expensive than CEXs, with AMMs being the most expensive with trading costs averaging approximately 130bps. Exchange fees are also significantly more expensive in these alternative asset classes. CEXs charge traders between 2-26bps. This wide variance is driven by the ‘tiered’ nature of fees – exchanges such as Kraken charge 26bps for traders with volumes less than $50,000 per month, while Binance reduces its trading fees to 2bps for traders who exceed $4billion in a single month. The EtherDelta DEX charges 30bps to fund the protocol, which is similar to popular AMMs such as Uniswap V2 and Sushiswap. While not analysed in this paper, Uniswap V3 allows different liquidity pools to be established with different exchange fees – with tiers ranging from 1bp to 100bps. A summary of our key findings is in Table 12, contrasting the structure, costs, risks, and performance of the different market types. Table 12: Summary of Findings Feature Equity Exchanges Tokenized Equities CEX DEX AMM Market Maker Electronic liquidity providers (ELP) ELP ELP ELP/Arbitrageur Liquidity pool 7.5bps 74bps 32bps 66bps 130bps <1bps Clearinghouse 1-2bps 2-7bps Internal Free 2-26bps Internal Free Settlement Speed 2-3 days Instant Instant Exchange Speed Counterparty Risk KYC/AML Fast Low Strong Fast High Medium Fast High Medium 30bps Eth Blockchain Gas Cost ($5-$50) Variable (10sec-1min) Slow None None 1-100bps Eth Blockchain Gas Cost ($5-$50) Variable (10sec-1min) Slow None None Implicit Transactions Costs Explicit Exchange Costs Settlement Method Settlement Cost While cryptocurrencies and tokenization of assets are in the early stages of development, particularly compared to traditional equity markets, their advantages such as real-time riskless settlement and new methods of trading hold significant promise for improving market efficiency, reducing risks, and reducing overall costs of market infrastructure. 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Matched Pair List (Symbols) Equities – Tokenized Securities (EXQ-TKN) Centralized Exchanges – Automated Market Makers (CEX-AMM) (Count = 36) (Count = 15) AAPL-USD AAVE-ETH AMC-USD BAT-ETH AMD-USD BAT-USDC AMZN-USD ETH-DAI ARKK-USD ETH-USDC BABA-USD ETH-USDT BB-USD GRT-ETH BILI-USD KNC-ETH BNTX-USD LINK-ETH BYND-USD LINK-USDT CRON-USD MANA-ETH FB-USD REP-ETH GDX-USD STORJ-ETH GDXJ-USD UNI-BTC GLD-USD USDC-USDT GME-USD GOOGL-USD MRNA-USD MSTR-USD NFLX-USD NIO-USD NOK-USD NVDA-USD PENN-USD PFE-USD PYPL-USD SLV-USD SPY-USD SQ-USD TLRY-USD TSLA-USD TSM-USD TWTR-USD UBER-USD USO-USD ZM-USD 47 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Centralized Exchanges Symbol List (Universe) AMM AAVE-BTC, AAVE-ETH, AAVE-EUR, AAVE-GBP AAVE-USD, ADA-BTC, ADA-ETH, ADA-EUR ADA-USDT, ALGO-BTC, ALGO-EUR, ALGO-USD ATOM-BTC, ATOM-USD, BAL-BTC, BAL-USD BAND-BTC, BAT-BTC, BAT-ETH, BAT-USDC BCH-BTC, BCH-EUR, BCH-GBP, BCH-USD BCH-USDT, BNT-BTC, BTC-AUD, BTC-DAI BTC-EUR, BTC-GBP, BTC-USD, BTC-USDC BTC-USDT, COMP-BTC, COMP-USD, CRV-BTC DAI-USD, DASH-BTC, DASH-USD, DOT-BTC DOT-EUR, DOT-USDT, EOS-BTC, EOS-ETH EOS-EUR, EOS-USD, EOS-USDT, ETC-BTC ETC-ETH, ETC-EUR, ETC-USD, ETH-AUD ETH-BTC, ETH-DAI, ETH-EUR, ETH-GBP ETH-USD, ETH-USDC, ETH-USDT, FIL-BTC FIL-EUR, FIL-USD, GRT-BTC, GRT-ETH GRT-EUR, GRT-USD, ICX-BTC, ICX-ETH KAVA-BTC, KNC-BTC, KNC-ETH, KNC-USD KSM-BTC, LINK-BTC, LINK-ETH, LINK-EUR LINK-USD, LINK-USDT, LRC-BTC, LSK-BTC LSK-ETH, LTC-BTC, LTC-ETH, LTC-EUR LTC-GBP, LTC-USD, LTC-USDT, MANA-BTC MANA-ETH, MKR-BTC, NANO-BTC, NANO-ETH NMR-BTC, OMG-BTC, OMG-ETH, OMG-EUR OMG-USD, OXT-BTC, OXT-USD, PAXG-BTC QTUM-BTC, QTUM-ETH, REN-BTC, REP-BTC REP-ETH, REP-USD, SC-BTC, SC-ETH SNX-BTC, SNX-EUR, SNX-USD, STORJ-BTC STORJ-ETH, TRX-BTC, TRX-ETH, UMA-BTC UNI-BTC, UNI-USD, USDC-USDT, WAVES-BTC WAVES-ETH, WBTC-BTC, XLM-BTC, XLM-EUR XLM-USD, XMR-BTC, XRP-AUD, XRP-BTC XRP-ETH, XRP-EUR, XRP-GBP, XRP-USD XRP-USDT, XTZ-BTC, XTZ-EUR, XTZ-USD YFI-BTC, YFI-EUR, YFI-USD, ZEC-BTC ZEC-USD, ZEC-USDC, ZRX-BTC AAVE-ETH BAT-ETH BAT-USDC ETH-DAI ETH-USDC ETH-USDT GRT-ETH KNC-ETH LINK-ETH LINK-USDC LINK-USDT MANA-ETH REP-ETH STORJ-ETH UNI-BTC UNI-USDT USDC-USDT Equities AAPL ABNB AMC AMD AMZN ARKK BABA BB BILI BNTX BYND CGC CRON FB GDX GDXJ GLD GLXY GME GOOGL MRNA MSTR NFLX NIO NOK NVDA PENN PFE PYPL SLV SPY SQ TLRY TSLA TSM TWTR UBER USO ZM 48 Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4301258 Tokenized Equities AAPL-USD ABNB-USD ACB-USD AMC-USD AMD-USD AMZN-USD APHA-USD ARKK-USD BABA-USD BB-USD BILI-USD BITW-USD BNTX-USD BYND-USD CGC-USD CRON-USD ETHE-USD FB-USD GBTC-USD GDX-USD GDXJ-USD GLD-USD GLXY-USD GME-USD GOOGL-USD MRNA-USD MSTR-USD NFLX-USD NIO-USD NOK-USD NVDA-USD PENN-USD PFE-USD PYPL-USD SLV-USD SPY-USD SQ-USD TLRY-USD TSLA-USD TSM-USD TWTR-USD UBER-USD USO-USD ZM-USD
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