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Discuss the role of public opinion polling during democratic elections. To what extent
does polling affect the outcome of elections?
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Introduction
Modern democracies not only use elections as a means of contesting among the
candidates or parties but also on how citizens understand the political process. One of the
most widely used instruments of the election process today has been public opinion polling,
which defines the strategies of the political actors and expectations of the voters (Hutchings,
2021). Polls are trying to gauge the preferences of the voters before the election day, and give
a snapshot of who trails ahead, which issues are of most concern, and how the campaigns are
changing voter opinion. According to many citizens, polls represent the primary method of
tracking the election progress (Tomz & Weeks, 2013). Public opinion polling raises concerns
on whether they are used to inform voters or determine the outcome of the election. Critiques
argues that most voters tend to support the leading candidate making the followers of the
losing candidates less motivated to vote. It is also believed that polls enhance transparency
and give worthy information on the opinion of the people, and enable campaigns to change
according to the demands of the citizens.
Therefore, this research paper argues that polling of public opinion is an important
element in democratic elections since it influences campaign strategies and political
communications, second, it influences voter behaviour and finally, impacting media coverage
and public discussion. Although polls do not dictate it plays a significant role in shaping
electoral results through influencing campaigns, voters and media.
Background of the Issue
Public opinion polls refer to surveys conducted to gauge the opinions of a group of
citizens and predict their views of the general population. Polling is applied in democratic
elections to foresee the preferences of voters, define the important issues, and monitor the
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levels of support in the long term (Oleskog Tryggvason, 2021). Media houses, institutions,
and even individual companies carry out polls, usually through telephone or online polls.
The major challenge is that even though the goal of polls is to find opinions, it might
also influence them. According to the democratic theory, elections are supposed to be based
on the free will of citizens. Nevertheless, when the polling figures are publicly released, such
results can influence the way individuals think about politicians, the distribution of resources
among the campaigns, and the media coverage of the campaign (Baxter & Marcella, 2017).
Public opinion polls may result to the bandwagon effect, where voters follow the popular
candidate and the underdog effect where voters sympathize and vote for the losing candidate.
It may also result to strategic voting where voters use the polling data and make a choice
among the candidates (Warren, 2018). Thus, it is the responsibility of democratic institutions
to balance between the benefits and risks of public opinion polls.
Shaping Campaign Strategies and Political Communication
Election are influenced by polling since it affects the manner in which campaigns are
held. Through polls, political parties and candidates can be able to see the issues which are of
most concern to the electorate, the sectors they should get their way into and their popularity
would be translated with time. As example is when polls indicate that healthcare is among the
top priorities of voters, candidates can create speeches and manifestos that emphasize this
matter (Dionne & Mann, 2003). Polling is also useful in helping campaigns to change tactics
in elections. Tracking polls, where support or opposition are measured each day or each
week, are used to enable parties to experiment with messages or debates to determine how
people react to it. For example, in US presidential candidates usually use polling data to
identify where to conduct their rallies. This is because polling directly informs the political
agenda that will tell the candidates what they are most interested in. it is good to understand
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that such influence might result to negative effects. It can also happen where candidates are
consumed by what is popular and not what is required to run a well-run government, causing
it to be a popularity contest rather than an idea-based contest.
Voter Behaviour Influence
Polling can also be used to influence elections because it affects voters’ behaviour.
Among the effects that individuals tend to vote more for the candidate who tops the polls.
This is due to the fact that people want to be on the winning side or hold an opinion that when
several others back a candidate, then that candidate is the most appropriate (Warren, 2018).
Based on the research when an election is close polling influence the undecided voters to join
the majority side (Baxter & Marcella, 2017). Voters sympathize with the losing candidate on
the polls and defend them in protest. This is not highly common but demonstrates how polls
influence choices and emotions. Public opinion polls promote strategic voting. For example,
when voters perceive that their preferred candidate has very low chances of winning, they
might vote for the viable candidate to avoid the situation in which their least preferred
candidate wins. All these psychological impacts indicate that it is not a neutral poll. On the
contrary, they actively influence voter choices and, in the tight ones, could even have an
impact on the final result.
Influencing Media Reports and public debate
During democratic elections public opinion polls has a significant influence on media
coverage and public debate. News media often publish polls in their headlines, instead of
mentioning policy proposals. This forms what other scholars term a horse-race method of
covering elections, wherein competition is over content (Deacon et al., 2017). The media also
influences the opinion of the people when the media houses report poll numbers, hence
shaping the perception of the election. When a candidate is unpopular with polls indicating
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that they will not win, the candidate will not have much media coverage and will
consequently become less visible and supported. This forms a loop in which polls and media
reports reinforce one another.
Public opinion polls also have an impact on the citizen debates. The voters discuss the
result of the polls, and this makes people have expectations of what will happen before the
votes are cast. This, in others, can deter voting, whereby people are convinced that the
election is not in question. For example, British election researchers have demonstrated that
in cases where the poll results show a decisive candidate, those who support the losing
candidate might reduce their turnout (Curtice & Simpson, 2018).
Conclusion
Public opinion polling has become the key aspect of the democratic elections in how
campaigns are conducted, how voters make choice and how media makes their reports. This
essay has indicated that polling has three major impacts on elections that is, guiding
campaign strategy, influence on voter behaviour and finally shaping media report and public
debate. Despite the usefulness of polls in creating more transparency and awareness among
citizens, they create concerns. They can negatively disrupt the political process either by
promoting popularity contests, discourage turnout, or influencing the voting decision in a
manner that is not entirely based on independent judgment. Thus, polls do not actually dictate
the results of elections but are the major factors that shape which elections are contested. To
safeguard democracy, the citizens, campaigns, and media must be responsible when
conducting polling, but also make sure that the election process is more issue-driven and
accountable.
References
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Baxter, G., & Marcella, R. (2017). Voters’ online information behaviour and response to
campaign content during the Scottish referendum on independence. International
Journal of Information Management, 37(6), 539-546.
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijinfomgt.2017.05.013
Curtice, J., & Simpson, I. (2018). Why Turnout Increased in the 2017 General Election and
the Increase Did Not Help Labour. NatCen Social Research, London.
https://natcen.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2023-08/why-turnout-increased-in-the-2017general-election.pdf
Deacon, D., Downey, J., Smith, D., Stanyer, J., & Wring, D. (2017). National News media
coverage of the 2017 general election. Loughborough: Loughborough University.
https://blog.lboro.ac.uk/crcc/wp-content/uploads/sites/23/2017/06/media-coverage-ofthe-2017-general-election-campaign-report-4.pdf
Dionne, E, J. & Mann, T, E (2003). Polling & Public Opinion: The good, The Bad, and The
Ugly [online]. Retrieved from: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/polling-publicopinion-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/
Hutchings, V. L. (2021). Public opinion and democratic accountability: How citizens learn
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Oleskog Tryggvason, P. (2021). Under the influence? Understanding media’s coverage of
opinion polls and their effects on citizens and politicians.
https://gupea.ub.gu.se/handle/2077/67096
Tomz, M. R., & Weeks, J. L. (2013). Public opinion and the democratic peace. American
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https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-
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review/article/abs/public-opinion-and-the-democraticpeace/0A2514F8AFE05F1264669193FE4EFE15
Warren, K. F. (2018). In defense of public opinion polling. Routledge.
https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429499906