FINE 2000 Student File Schulich School of Business FINE 2000 AGENDA Week 3 • • Students who don’t have a registered Mylab account will not be able to participate in the quizzes, midterm or final exam. Please make sure that the account is setup. Readings Chapter 6 In Class Problems Chapter 6: Questions 2, 11, 22, 27, 28 Midterm Preparation Start to plan for the midterm. Instructors will begin discussing the format in class. Use the study plan to work on problems. Next week • Week 03 Chapters 7 : Stock Valuations Page 1 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File C O R P O R A T E F I N A N C E FINE 2000 Week 03 Page 2 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File COURSE OVERVIEW AGENDA – Week 3 • Group Reminder Assignment BONDS IN CLASS QUESTIONS Week 03 Page 3 of 64 FINE 2000 Corporate Finance Student File Fifth Canadian Edition Chapter 6 Valuing Bonds Ch.3.1 and 3.3 Ch.1 not present value WC D E LIQUIDITY Bonds NCA Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 4 of 64 6-3 FINE 2000 Student File Chapter Outline 6.1 Bond Cash Flows, Prices, and Yields 6.2 Dynamic Behaviour of Bond Prices 6.3 The Yield Curve and Bond Arbitrage 6.4 Corporate Bonds 6.5 Sovereign Bonds Week 03 Page 5 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File 6.1 Bond Cash Flows, Prices, and Yields (1 of 2) • Bond Terminology • Bond Certificate • States the terms of the bond • Maturity Date • Final repayment date • Term • The time remaining until the repayment date • Coupon • Promised interest payments Week 03 Page 6 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File 6.1 Bond Cash Flows, Prices, and Yields (2 of 2) • Bond Terminology • Face Value EACH BOND IS WORTH THIS MUCH • Notional amount used to compute the interest payments • Coupon Rate • Determines the amount of each coupon payment, expressed as an APR • Coupon Payment Coupon Rate Face Value CPN = Number of Coupon Payments per Year Week 03 Page 7 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (1 of 7) • Zero-Coupon Bonds PMT WILL BE 0, THEY WONT PAY YOU ANYTHING • Does not make coupon payments • Always sells at a discount (a price lower than face value), so they are also called pure discount bonds • Treasury Bills are Government of Canada Bonds that are zero-coupon bonds with a maturity of up to one year. Pay $1,000 today and get back %1,000 plus interest after 10 years No payments on an annual basis Week 03 Page 8 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (2 of 7) • Suppose that a one-year, risk-free, zero-coupon bond with a $100,000 face value has an initial price of $96,618.36. The cash flows would be: Discount • Although the bond pays no “interest,” your compensation is the difference between the initial price and the face value. Week 03 Page 9 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (3 of 7) • Yield to Maturity • The discount rate that sets the present value of the promised bond payments equal to the current market price of the bond. • Price of a Zero-Coupon bond FV P= (1 + YTM n )n Week 03 Page 10 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (4 of 7) • Yield to Maturity • For the one-year zero coupon bond: $100, 000 $96, 618.36 = (1 + YTM1 ) $100, 000 1 + YTM1 = = 1.035 $96, 618.36 • Thus, the YTM is 3.5%. Week 03 Page 11 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (5 of 7) • Yield to Maturity • Yield to Maturity of an n-Year Zero-Coupon Bond is: 1 FV n YTM n = −1 P Week 03 Page 12 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Example 6.1 Yields for Different Maturities Problem Suppose the following zero-coupon bonds are trading at the prices shown below per $100 face value. Determine the corresponding yield to maturity for each bond. Week 03 Page 13 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (6 of 7) • Spot Rates of Interest • The n-period rate of interest, rn, is the rate appropriate for discounting a risk-free cash flow that occurs on date n, is called the spot rate of interest. • A default-free zero-coupon bond that matures on date n provides a risk-free return over the same period. Thus, the Law of One Price guarantees that the risk-free interest rate equals the yield to maturity on such a bond. • Risk-Free Interest Rate (Spot Rate) with Maturity n rn = YTM n Week 03 Page 14 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Zero-Coupon Bonds (7 of 7) • Risk-Free Interest Rates • Spot Interest Rate • Another term for a default-free, zero-coupon yield • Zero-Coupon Yield Curve • A plot of the yield of risk-free zero-coupon bonds as a function of the bond’s maturity date Week 03 Page 15 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Coupon Bonds (1 of 3) • Coupon Bonds • Pay face value at maturity • Pay regular coupon interest payments • Government of Canada Bonds • The Government of Canada Bonds are sold with maturities of 2, 5, 10, 20, or 30 years. Week 03 Page 16 of 64 FINE 2000 Example 6.2 The Cash Flows of a Coupon Bond (1 of 2) Student File Problem The Government of Canada has just issued a five-year, $1000 bond with a 5% coupon rate and semiannual coupons. What cash flows will you receive if you hold this bond until maturity? Week 03 Page 17 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Coupon Bonds (2 of 3) • Yield to Maturity • The YTM is the single discount rate that equates the present value of the bond’s remaining cash flows to its current price. Week 03 Page 18 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Coupon Bonds (3 of 3) • Yield to Maturity of a Coupon Bond Week 03 Page 19 of 64 START OF WEEK 4 FINE 2000 Example 6.3 Computing the Yield to Maturity of a Coupon Bond (1 of 2) Student File Problem Consider the five-year, $1000 bond with a 5% coupon rate and semiannual coupons described in Example 6.2. If this bond is currently trading for a price of $957.35, what is the bond’s yield to maturity? Discount bond because it is trading for below the par value YTM (stands for the current interest rate) - Higher becasue trading for dscount to compesate for lower rate, menas annual rate For this question the answer is 6% Week 03 Page 20 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Example 6.4 Computing a Bond Price From its Yield to Maturity (1 of 2) Problem Consider again the five-year, $1000 bond with a 5% coupon rate and semiannual coupons in Example 6.3. Suppose you are told that its yield to maturity has increased to 6.30% (expressed as an APR with semiannual compounding). What price is the bond trading for now? Week 03 Page 21 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File 6.2 Dynamic Behaviour of Bond Prices • Discount YTM > Coupon Rate • A bond is selling at a discount if the price is less than the face value. • Par • A bond is selling at par if the price is equal to the face value. • Premium • A bond is selling at a premium if the price is greater than the face value. YTM < Coupon Rate Week 03 Page 22 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Discounts and Premiums (1 of 3) • If a coupon bond trades at a discount, an investor will earn a return both from receiving the coupons and from receiving a face value that exceeds the price paid for the bond. Price paid right now is a lot lower • If a bond trades at a discount, its yield to maturity will exceed its coupon rate. Week 03 Page 23 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Discounts and Premiums (2 of 3) • If a coupon bond trades at a premium it will earn a return from receiving the coupons but this return will be diminished by receiving a face value less than the price paid for the bond. • When a bond trades at a price equal to its face value, it is said to trade at par. Price will be higher One increases value and one decreases in value Premium 1000 Discount Week 03 Maturity Page 24 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Discounts and Premiums (3 of 3) TABLE 6.1 Bond Prices Immediately After a Coupon Payment Week 03 When the bond price is . . . greater than the face value equal to the face value less than the face value We say the bond trades . . . “above par” or “at a premium” “at par” “below par” or “at a discount” This occurs when the . . . Coupon Rate > Yield to Maturity Coupon Rate = Yield to Maturity Coupon Rate < Yield to Maturity Page 25 of 64 FINE 2000 Example 6.5 Determining the Discount or Premium of a Coupon Bond (1 of 2) Student File Problem Consider three 30-year Government of Canada bonds with annual coupon payments. One bond has a 10% coupon rate, one has a 5% coupon rate, and one has a 3% coupon rate. If the yield to maturity of each bond is 5% (EAR), what is the price of each bond per $100 face value? Which bond trades at a premium, which trades at a discount, and which trades at par? Week 03 Page 26 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Time and Bond Prices • Holding all other things constant, a bond’s yield to maturity will not change over time. • Holding all other things constant, the price of a discount or premium bond will move towards par value over time. • If a bond’s yield to maturity has not changed, then the IRR of an investment in the bond equals its yield to maturity even if you sell the bond early. when looking at par value of bonds Week 03 Page 27 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Example 6.6 The Effect of Time on the Price of a Coupon Bond (1 of 4) Problem Consider a 30-year Government of Canada bond with a 10% coupon rate (annual payments) and a $100 face value. What is the initial price of this bond if it has a 5% (EAR) yield to maturity? If the yield to maturity is unchanged, what will the price be immediately before and after the first coupon is paid? Week 03 Page 28 of 64 Figure 6.1 The Effect of Time on Bond Prices FINE 2000 Student File YTM will stabilize over time price will move slowly and then they are smoothed down with slight decline ebcase coupons are gone The graph illustrates the effects of the passage of time on bond prices when the yield remains constant. The price of a zero-coupon bond rises smoothly. The price of a coupon bond also rises between coupon payments, but tumbles on the coupon date, reflecting the amount of the coupon payment. For each coupon bond, the grey line shows the trend of the bond price just after each coupon is paid. Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 29 of 64 6 - 28 FINE 2000 Student File Interest Rate Changes and Bond Prices (1 of 2) • There is an inverse relationship between interest rates and bond prices. Sensitivity is imporatn • As interest rates and bond yields rise, bond prices fall. • As interest rates and bond yields fall, bond prices rise. Week 03 Page 30 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Interest Rate Changes and Bond Prices (2 of 2) • The sensitivity of a bond’s price to changes in interest rates is measured by the bond’s duration. • Bonds with high durations are highly sensitive to interest rate changes. • Bonds with low durations are less sensitive to interest rate changes. Week 03 Page 31 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Example 6.7 The Interest Rate Sensitivity of Bonds (1 of 2) Problem Consider a 15-year zero-coupon bond and a 30-year coupon bond with 10% annual coupons. Both bonds have a $100 face value. By what percentage will the price of each bond change if its yield to maturity increases from 5% to 6%? Week 03 Page 32 of 64 FINE 2000 Figure 6.2 Yield to Maturity and Bond Price Fluctuations over Time Student File As Figure 6.2 demonstrates, prior to maturity the bond is exposed to interest rate risk. If an investor chooses to sell and the bond’s yield to maturity has decreased, then the investor will receive a high price and earn a high return. If the yield to maturity has increased, the bond price is low at the time of sale and the investor will earn a low return. In the appendix to this chapter, we discuss one way corporations manage this type of risk. The graphs illustrate changes in price and yield for a 30-year zero-coupon bond over its life. The top graph illustrates the changes in the bond’s yield to maturity over its life. In the bottom graph, the actual bond price is shown in blue. Because the yield to maturity does not remain constant over the bond’s life, the bond’s price fluctuates as it converges to the face value over time. Also shown is the price if the yield to maturity remained fixed at 4%, 5%, or 6%. Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 33 of 64 6 - 32 FINE 2000 Student File 6.3 The Yield Curve and Bond Arbitrage • Using the Law of One Price and the yields of default-free zerocoupon bonds, one can determine the price and yield of any other default-free bond. • The yield curve provides sufficient information to evaluate all such bonds. Week 03 Page 34 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Replicating a Coupon Bond (1 of 3) • Replicating a three-year $1000 bond that pays 10% annual coupon using three zero-coupon bonds: Week 03 Page 35 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Replicating a Coupon Bond (2 of 3) • Yields and Prices (per $100 Face Value) for Zero Coupon Bonds TABLE 6.2 Spot Rates and Prices (Per $100 Face Value) for Zero-Coupon Bonds Week 03 Maturity 1 year 2 years 3 years 4 years rn 3.50% 4.00% 4.50% 4.75% Price $96.62 $92.45 $87.63 $83.06 Page 36 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Replicating a Coupon Bond (3 of 3) • By the Law of One Price, the three-year coupon bond must trade for a price of $1153. Week 03 Page 37 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Valuing a Coupon Bond Using Zero-Coupon Yields or Spot Rates • The price of a coupon bond must equal the present value of its coupon payments and face value. • Price of a Coupon Bond P = PV (Bond Cash Flows) = CPN CPN + + 1 + r1 (1 + r2 ) 2 P= Week 03 + CPN + FV (1 + rn ) n $100 $100 $100 + $1000 + + = $1153 2 3 1.035 1.04 1.045 Page 38 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Coupon Bond Yields • Given the yields for zero-coupon bonds, we can price a coupon bond. 100 100 100 + 1000 P = 1153 = + + 2 (1 + y) (1 + y) (1 + y)3 P= Week 03 100 100 100 + 1000 + + = $1153 2 3 1.0444 1.0444 1.0444 Page 39 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Financial Calculator Solution (8 of 9) Week 03 Page 40 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Example 6.8 Yields on Bonds with the Same Maturity (1 of 3) Problem Given the following zero-coupon yields (i.e., spot rates), compare the yield to maturity for a three-year, zero-coupon bond; a three-year coupon bond with 4% annual coupons; and a three-year coupon bond with 10% annual coupons. All of these bonds are default free. Week 03 Page 41 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File 6.4 Corporate Bonds • Corporate Bonds • Issued by corporations • Credit Risk • Risk of default Week 03 Page 42 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (1 of 9) • Investors pay less for bonds with credit risk than they would for an otherwise identical default-free bond. • The yield of bonds with credit risk will be higher than that of otherwise identical default-free bonds. Week 03 Page 43 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (2 of 9) • No Default • Consider a 1-year, zero coupon Treasury Bill with a YTM of 4%. • What is the price? $1000 $1000 P = = = $961.54 1 + YTM 1 1.04 Week 03 Page 44 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (3 of 9) • Certain Default • Suppose now bond issuer will pay 90% of the obligation. • What is the price? $900 $900 P = = = $865.38 1 + YTM 1 1.04 Week 03 Page 45 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (4 of 9) • Certain Default • When computing the yield to maturity for a bond with certain default, the promised rather than the actual cash flows are used. FV $1000 YTM = −1 = − 1 = 15.56% P 865.38 900 = 1.04 865.38 Week 03 Page 46 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (5 of 9) • Certain Default • The yield to maturity of a certain default bond is not equal to the expected return of investing in the bond. The yield to maturity will always be higher than the expected return of investing in the bond. Week 03 Page 47 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (6 of 9) • Risk of Default • Consider a one-year, $1000, zero-coupon bond issued. Assume that the bond payoffs are uncertain. • There is a 50% chance that the bond will repay its face value in full and a 50% chance that the bond will default and you will receive $900. Thus, you would expect to receive $950. • Because of the uncertainty, the discount rate is 5.1%. Week 03 Page 48 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (7 of 9) • Risk of Default • The price of the bond will be 950 P= = $903.90 1.051 • The yield to maturity will be FV 1000 YTM = −1 = − 1 = 0.1063 P 903.90 Week 03 Page 49 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (8 of 9) • Risk of Default • A bond’s expected return will be less than the yield to maturity if there is a risk of default. • A higher yield to maturity does not necessarily imply that a bond’s expected return is higher. Week 03 Page 50 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Bond Yields (9 of 9) TABLE 6.3 Price, Expected Return, and Yield to Maturity of a One-Year, Zero-Coupon Loblaw Bond With Different Likelihoods of Default Loblaw Bond (one-year, zero-coupon) Week 03 Bond Price Yield to Maturity Expected Return Default Free $961.54 4.00% 4.0% 50% Chance of Default $903.90 10.63% 5.1% Certain Default $865.38 15.56% 4.0% Page 51 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Bond Ratings (1 of 4) • Investment Grade Bonds • Speculative Bonds • Also known as Junk Bonds or High-Yield Bonds Week 03 Page 52 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Bond Ratings (2 of 5) Is it ivnestable or non investable political side is nasty TABLE 6.4 Bond Ratings Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Aaa AAA Description (Moody’s) Investment Grade Debt AAA Week 03 Judged to be of the best quality. They carry the smallest degree of investment risk and are generally referred to as “gilt edged.” Interest payments are protected by a large or an exceptionally stable margin and principal is secure. While the various protective elements are likely to change, such changes as can be visualized are most unlikely to impair the fundamentally strong position of such issues. Page 53 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Bond Ratings (3 of 5) TABLE 6.4 (continued) Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) Week 03 Moody’s Standard & Poor’s AA Aa AA Judged to be of high quality by all standards. Together with the Aaa group, they constitute what are generally known as high-grade bonds. They are rated lower than the best bonds because margins of protection may not be as large as in Aaa securities or fluctuation of protective elements may be of greater amplitude or there may be other elements present that make the long-term risk appear somewhat larger than the Aaa securities. A A A Possess many favourable investment attributes and are considered as upper-medium-grade obligations. Factors giving security to principal and interest are considered adequate, but elements may be present that suggest a susceptibility to impairment some time in the future. Description (Moody’s) Page 54 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Bond Ratings (4 of 5) TABLE 6.4 (continued) Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) BBB Moody’s Standard & Poor’s Baa BBB Anything lowet than BBB is junk bonds, its speculative, its going to ahve a lot of issues in the future ratings are important factor in investing poor standing, issue, annual conference Description (Moody’s) Are considered as medium-grade obligations (i.e., they are neither highly protected nor poorly secured). Interest payments and principal security appear adequate for the present but certain protective elements may be lacking or may be characteristically unreliable over any great length of time. Such bonds lack outstanding investment characteristics and, in fact, have speculative characteristics as well. Speculative Bonds BB Week 03 Ba BB Judged to have speculative elements; their future cannot be considered as well assured. Often the protection of interest and principal payments may be very moderate, and thereby not well safeguarded during both good and bad times over the future. Uncertainty of position characterizes bonds in this class. Page 55 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Bond Ratings (5 of 5) TABLE 6.4 (continued) Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) Week 03 Moody’s Standard & Poor’s B B B Generally lack characteristics of a desirable investment. Assurance of interest and principal payments of maintenance of other terms of the contract over any long period of time may be small. CCC Caa CCC Are of poor standing. Such issues may be in default or there may be present elements of danger with respect to principal or interest. CC Ca CC Are speculative to a high degree. Such issues are often in default or have other marked shortcomings. C, D C C, D Lowest-rated class of bonds, and issues so rated can be regarded as having extremely poor prospects of ever attaining any real investment standing. Description (Moody’s) Page 56 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate Yield Curves • Default Spread • Also known as Credit Spread • The difference between the yield on corporate bonds and Treasury yields Week 03 Page 57 of 64 Figure 6.3 Corporate and Provincial Yield Curves for January 22, 2020 FINE 2000 Student File Corporate yield curves are higher than govt can be downgraded because of speculation This figure shows the coupon-paying yield curve for bonds from the Government of Canada, the Province of Ontario, and Bell Canada on January 22, 2020. Note how the yield to maturity is higher for lower-rated bonds, which have a higher probability of default. Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 58 of 64 6 - 57 Figure 6.4 Yield Spreads and the Financial Crisis FINE 2000 Student File 2008 financial crisis caused high rates Panel A shows the yield spread between longterm (30-year) U.S. corporate and Treasury bonds. Panel B shows the yield spread of shortterm loans to major international banks (LIBOR) and U.S. Treasury bills (also referred to as the Treasury-Eurodollar or “TED” spread). Note the dramatic increase in these spreads beginning in August 2007 and again in September 2008, before beginning to decline in early 2009. While spreads returned to pre-crisis levels by the end of 2010, they increased sharply in the second half of 2011 in response to the European debt crisis. Spreads rose again in 2016, partly in response to concerns about global economic growth. Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 59 of 64 6 - 58 FINE 2000 Student File 6.5 Sovereign Bonds • Bonds issued by national governments • Government of Canada bonds are generally considered to be default free • All sovereign bonds are not default free • e.g. Greece defaulted on its outstanding debt in 2012 • Importance of inflation expectations • Potential to “inflate away” the debt • European sovereign debt, the EMU, and the ECB Week 03 Page 60 of 64 Figure 6.5 Percent of Debtor Countries in Default or Restructuring Debt, 1800–2006 FINE 2000 Student File The chart shows, for each five-year period, the average percentage of debtor countries per year that were either in default or in the process of restructuring their debt. Recent peaks occurred around the time of World War II and the Latin American, Asian, and Russian debt crises in the 1980s and 1990s. Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 61 of 64 6 - 60 Figure 6.6 European Government Bond Yields, 1976–2018 FINE 2000 Student File The plot shows the yield on government debt issued by six countries in the European Currency Union. Prior to the euro’s introduction in 1999, yields varied in accordance with differing inflation expectations and currency risk. Yields converged once the euro was introduced, but diverged again after the 2008 financial crisis as investors recognized the possibility of default. Week 03 Copyright © 2022 Pearson Canada Inc. Page 62 of 64 6 - 61 FINE 2000 Student File Q U E S T I O N S ? Week 03 Page 63 of 64 FINE 2000 Student File NEXT WEEK • After completing this week you can work on the following problems for practice • Study Plan for Chapter •7 • Continue working on the study plan questions working towards the midterm • At this stage we have completed bond valuation. Next week the focus will be on stock valuation Chapter 7 Week 03 Page 64 of 64
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