12 December 2024
The rise of Japan
A macroeconomic analysis of Japan from 1950 to 2019
Written by:
Sem Verdeijen (8881103)
Wim ten Berge (5110947)
William Sasmita (7745907)
Thomas Sebastiaan Ferro (4832256)
Contents
Introduction------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 3
GDP Growth accounting -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
GDP Growth--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 4
Capital accumulation --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 6
Growth accounting equation----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7
Post WWII “economic miracle” (1950-1973)--------------------------------------------------------------------- 8
The Lost Decades (1990 – 2010) ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 9
Recent trends (2010 – 2019) ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 10
Population and human capital ----------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11
Population and labor -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 11
Human capital ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 13
Effective labor ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 14
Residuals--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 16
Cost Implications of Climate Change to Japan --------------------------------------------------------- 18
CO2 Emission in Japan ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 18
Future of emissions ------------------------------------------------------- Ошибка! Закладка не определена.
Bibliography ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 25
Appendix A ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 27
Appendix B ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 29
Appendix C ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 32
Page 1 of 37
Part 1 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 32
Part 2 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 33
Appendix D ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 36
Appendix E ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 37
Page 2 of 37
Introduction
This report will be analyzing Japan’s economic growth and sustainability. Japan is an island
state in East-Asia, in relative close distance to China, South-Korea and Russia. It exists out of
four mayor islands, which house 124 million inhabitants (Statistics Bureau of Japan, 2024).
Important industries for the economy are automobiles, iron and steel products,
semiconductors and services like banking and telecommunications (The World Factbook,
2024). As of 2023 Japan is the fifth-largest economy in the world. (World Bank, 2023). It has
been through a rapid economic growth and rebuild of the economy after the second world
war. This period, often called the ‘Japanese economic miracle’ makes it a country worth
being investigated. Especially since after this world war the Japanese economy was in a
extremely bad position, in part from the nuclear bombings organized by the United States.
However, in recent decades Japan has faced new challenges to maintain a growing economy.
In particular the aging population and declining birth rates pose difficulties to prevent a
stagnation of the growth rate. Despite these challenges, Japan remains a leader in technology
and innovation.
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GDP Growth accounting
To analyze the trends and economical phenomena’s the data provided in "The Next
Generation of the Penn World Table" by Feenstra, Robert C., Robert Inklaar and Marcel P.
Timmer (2015) was used. The original paper looks at a variety of countries, whereas this
paper zooms in on only Japan.
GDP Growth
16%
GROWTH IN GDP
14%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Growth in GDP in percentages
12%
-4%
-6%
Years
Figure 1: GDP of Japan
The raw data gathered (Visibible in Appendix A) was further analyzed. Firstly the GDP over
the period 1950-2019 was taken. This can be found in Appendix B. This shows that the
growth of GDP was increasing rapidly in the 1950s to the 1960s. This is because after the
second world war, Japan has implemented different government policies, had a skilled
workforce, and had a lot of technical innovations that fueled their economy (Yamamura, K.
1997). After this economic surge the GDP plummeted for a short period, the growth went
Page 4 of 37
negative by 2% in 1974 due to the oil crisis and a massive Inflation increase that reached up
to 30%. (Mihut, M. I. 2012)
After this short downfall, a positive peak followed quickly. The peak was due to the economy
rising again because Japan experienced a significant price bubble. This bubble was growing
due to excessive lending and speculative investments. When the bubble burst in the late
1980s the GDP growth collapsed one last time (Okina, K. 2001)
After the burst bubble the GDP growth starts to stagnate a little bit more. After 1995 the GDP
growth is between 4% and -2%. This is when Japan started to go into the lost decade, due to
the aging population and corporate government issues.
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Capital accumulation
Growth of Capital
CAPITAL GROWTH
20%
10%
5%
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
0%
1950
Growth In capital in percentages
15%
-5%
-10%
Year
Figure 2: Growth in capital stock
The data also provides valuable insides on capital growth. Capital has grown steadily from
the 1950s up until the 1970s. Growing between 4% and 14% annually (see figure 2). This is
because after World War II, Japan underwent significant reconstruction efforts to rebuild its
infrastructure, industries, and economy. This combined with stable economic policies and a
growing workforce resulted in a period often referred to as Japan's "economic miracle,".
Following this a negative capital followed for a couple years, this negative capital growth in
Japan during the 1980s was the result of different factors. Speculative excess and monetary
policy played a direct role in creating and bursting the asset price bubble. The stagnating
economic activity and demographic challenges created an environment where capital
accumulation was reducing. After this capital growth peaked one more time in the 90s. After
Page 6 of 37
that it fluctuated way less and started to stagnate after 1995 and we see that capital growth is
always between -2% and 5%.
Growth accounting equation
To obtain a better understanding of the factors that make up this growth the growth
accounting equation can be used:
Δ𝑌 Δ𝐴
∆𝐾
Δℎ Δ𝐿
=
+α
+ (1 − 𝛼) ( + ) (1)
𝑌
𝐴
𝐾
ℎ
𝐿
Where;

∆𝑌/𝑌 is GDP growth

∆𝐴/𝐴 is Productivity growth

∆𝐾/𝐾 is physical capital growth

∆ℎ/ℎ is Human Capital growth

∆𝐿/𝐿 is Labor growth

𝛼 is share of capital in GDP

(1 − 𝛼) is share of labor in GDP
To calculate the share of labor we can use: Labor Share = Effective Labor / GDP. To further
see the formulas used to calculate variables see Appendix E. The labor share gives us the
value of (1-α). The mean of this value in the period under discussion is 0.23 or 23% (see
Appendix B). What can be concluded from this value is that the labor contribution to GDP is
that it is very low for a modern economy. In most advanced economies this labor share is
around 66% (Bentolila, S. & Saint-Paul, G. 2003). a labor share of only 23% indicates that
the economy is more capital-intensive and that a larger portion of the GDP comes from
Page 7 of 37
capital rather than labor. This follows from the direct relation between labor and capital share
in which if labor share is 23% capital share to GDP is 77%.
This capital-intensive economy means that it is more sensitive to changes in productivity
growth and capital growth than changes in labor growth. While labor is still important, it is
relatively less influential compared to the capital and productivity factors.
To provide a chronological analysis of Japan’s economic performance on this period using
the GDP growth accounting model, there will be key periods broken down to each variable.
Post WWII “economic miracle” (1950-1973)
This period marks Japan’s rapid industrialization and growth following WWII. Japan had a
huge transformation, shifting from a heavily hit economy to a thriving economy (Yamamura,
K. 1997). Japan experienced very high GDP growth (∆𝑌/𝑌 ) during this period, averaging
around 8-10% per year, driven by industrialization and export-oriented growth.
The Productivity growth (∆𝐴/𝐴) was high as Japan adopted and adapted Western technology
and best practices in manufacturing and infrastructure. There were huge gains from the
introduction of new technologies.
And for the capital growth (∆𝐾/𝐾), Investment in physical capital was substantial, as the
government implemented large-scale industrial policies to encourage growth. The capital
stock grew rapidly, playing a major role in driving GDP growth. The human capital (∆ℎ/ℎ)
and the Labor growth (∆𝐿/𝐿) was high as well in this period Education was a priority for
Japan, to develop a skilled labor force. The emphasis on technical education and vocational
training supported industrial development. With the population growing steadily in this
Page 8 of 37
period. Labor force participation increased, especially for women, as Japan’s workforce
became more urbanized and industrialized. Most important for this period is that Capital
accumulation and productivity improvements were the main drivers of GDP growth. As seen
on the early growth of GDP and the high growth of the Capital accumulation.
Growth in GDP and Capital Accumulation
15%
5%
0%
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
Chagne in percentages
10%
-5%
growth_gdp
capital_accumulation
-10%
Figure 3: Capital accumulation in respect to growth in GDP
The Lost Decades (1990 – 2010)
This period began with the burst of Japan's asset bubble in the early 1990s, leading to a long
during stagnation. The "Lost Decade" stretched into the 2000s, characterized by low growth,
and economic stagnation. (Flath, D. 2022) Japan's GDP growth slowed significantly,
averaging around 1-2% annually. The economic growth was this low because of the bubble
burst and financial crises. Productivity growth stagnated as well. After the rapid technological
Page 9 of 37
growth phase in the 1950s-1970s, Japan faced reducing returns to further technological
adoption. The Capital accumulation slowed down due to the fact that businesses focused on
restructuring after the bubble burst. Human capital growth slowed, as Japan faced an aging
population and the stagnation of wage growth. The workforce began shrinking due to lower
birth rates, which limited the growth potential of human capital (Katagiri, M. 2021). The
labor force growth slowed considerably with a declining working-age population. Despite
efforts to increase female and elderly participation in the workforce, labor growth remained a
significant constraint. Japan faced low GDP growth as the capital-intensive model became
less effective. Demographic changes played a critical role.
Recent trends (2010 – 2019)
This period Japan is struggling with the effects of the aging population while attempting to
modernize and adopt technologies, particularly in robotics, AI, and automation. The aging
population continued to be the most significant constraint on labor growth. Even though
Japan remains to be a global leader in technological innovation, overall productivity growth
remained slow. Capital growth was focused on technological advancements, but human
capital struggled to grow due to demographic challenges. Japan faced a situation where its
economic model, which had been based on capital accumulation and labor-intensive
industrialization, was less effective due to the ongoing demographic shift.
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Population and human capital
The growth equation (formula 1) breaks down growth in GDP into separate causes of growth.
This chapter zooms in to the growth contributed by population growth and growth in human
capital.
Δ𝑌 Δ𝐴
∆𝐾
Δℎ Δ𝐿
=
+α
+ (1 − 𝛼) ( + ) (1)
𝑌
𝐴
𝐾
ℎ
𝐿
In the growth equation labor and human capital is captured in:
(1 − 𝛼) (
Δℎ Δ𝐿
+ )
ℎ
𝐿
Herein (1-α) corresponds to the share of labor in GDP. This is the share of growth that can be
Δℎ
attributed to growth in effective labor. Following this ℎ
gives the growth in human
Δ𝐿
capital. This can be understood as an increase in productivity per worker. Lastly there is 𝐿 ,
giving the increase in labor. This is partly an effect of a growing total population, but can also
be caused by a change in participation rate or an increase in working hours per worker. To
gain further understanding of the variables and how these have developed for Japan we zoom
into them separately.
Population and labor
The data used in this report starts in the year 1950. From this year till approximately 1975 a
growth in population is visible (see figure 4 and Appendix C). This growth can be explained
by the high growth in income per worker this period. To better understand this the
demographic transition model (Kirk, D. 1996) offers valuable insights. This model states that
when a country moves from a low-income society to a middle-income society a large spike in
population is noticeable. This can be explained by the high fertility rates that will remain in
the country. On top of this the county moves too a higher average income, which will
Page 11 of 37
decrease the mortality rates. The combined effect of this is a quick rise in population. In
Japan this period of high fertility and relatively low mortality is recognizable in the period
1950 till 1975.
POPULATION GROWTH
2,0%
Growth in population
1,5%
1,0%
0,5%
-0,5%
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
0,0%
Year
Figure 4: Population growth in Japan
However, the demographic transition model also gives an explanation from the period
following this in Japan. After a period of high fertility rates the population will correct for
this. A higher income society comes with lower fertility rates. This coupled with still low
mortality rates will lead to a stagnation in population growth. Figure 4 shows this happening
in Japan from 1975 forwards. In the period following 2010 there is even a negative trend to
be seen. In this Japan is quite unique, and this can be explained by cultural values dominant
in Japan and a low immigration level (Inoue, T., Koike, S., Yamauchi, M., & Ishikawa, Y.
2022). However, this falls outside the scope of this research.
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To explain the labor in Japan the fraction of the population working should be researched.
This is captured in the data in Appendix C. This fraction stays relatively stable around 50%.
By multiplying this by the hours worked per employer the total hours worked is calculated.
Human capital
Integral to understanding the contribution of labor to the total growth is the growth in human
capital. The Human Capital Index (HCI) measures the potential productivity of a country's
workforce by assessing factors like education, health, and survival rates. A higher HCI
indicates a more skilled and healthier population, which can drive economic growth and
improve long-term prosperity.
HUMAN CAPITAL INDEX
4,0000
Human Capital Index
3,5000
3,0000
2,5000
2,0000
1,5000
1,0000
0,5000
2019
2016
2013
2010
2007
2004
2001
1998
1995
1992
1989
1986
1983
1980
1977
1974
1971
1968
1965
1962
1959
1956
1953
1950
0,0000
Year
Figure 5: Human Capital Index of Japan over time
Visible in figure 5 is a constant increase in human capital over time. This can be attributed to
a few different causes. A large part of it, however, is contributed by the increase of years
schooled in Japan in this same period (Morrison, C. Murtin, F. 2009).
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Effective labor
To find the total effect of labor on the growth accounting equation the combined growth of
labor and growth of human capital is used.
Growth attributed to labor
16%
14%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
year
1951
1953
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
Growth i.r.t. previous year
12%
-4%
-6%
Year
Growth GDP
Growth in effective labor
Figure 6: Contribution labor to growth equation
In figure 6 the total growth of GDP is displayed, compared to the growth in effective labor.
Effective labor can be understood as the labor part of the growth equation. Therefore it is a
summation of growth in labor in hours worked and the growth of human capital.
The figure shows that the stagnation of growth in the GDP can be explained by the stagnation
of growth in effective labor. 1950 starts with a high growth of effective labor, and a high
growth of GDP. Moving from 1950 to 2017, however, presents a gradual downward sloping
curve of effective labor.
The growth in GDP is subject to more variation. This is in line with the expectations since
the growth in GDP is dependent on more indicators then growth in labor. However, here also
Page 14 of 37
a downward trend can be distinguished. This can thus be explained by the downward trend in
effective labor.
Page 15 of 37
Residuals
So far this this research has looked into the partial effect of capital accumulation and
effective labor on the growth of the GDP. A look back to equation (1) shows that this is not a
complete analysis:
Δ𝑌 Δ𝐴
∆𝐾
Δℎ Δ𝐿
=
+α
+ (1 − 𝛼) ( + )
𝑌
𝐴
𝐾
ℎ
𝐿
Δ𝐴
The first term of the equation: 𝐴 shows that the growth in technology could also be a
significant cause of growth in total production. Gathering data on the change in technology is
challenging. The database is used in this research does not hold complete data on this
variable. Therefore this chapter zooms in on the period from 1955 till 2017.
It is a valuable insight to look at the size of this residual, since this gives a clear sign into how
well the growth equation can explain the growth in GDP in Japan.
To do this a realistic measurement of labor share is needed. The labor share is measured in
the database and used. The total growth equation then gives the predictions as visible in
figure 7 and appendix D.
CONTRIBUTION TO GROWTH EQUATION
Growth technology
Labor*laborshare
capital*capital share
total growth equation
30,0%
25,0%
20,0%
15,0%
10,0%
5,0%
-5,0%
Year
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
0,0%
-10,0%
Figure 7: Contribution to growth equation
Page 16 of 37
The difference between the growth equation and the measured growth in GDP signifies the
residual.
Residual
16,0%
14,0%
12,0%
Percentage
10,0%
8,0%
6,0%
4,0%
2,0%
-2,0%
1955
1957
1959
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
0,0%
-4,0%
-6,0%
Year
Growth gdp
total growth equation
residual
Figure 8: Residual based on growth GDP and growth equation
As visible in figure 8 the size of the residual is relatively low. This means that the growth
equation can explain a large part of the variation in the growth in GDP. The residual that
remains can be explained by either lagged impact of the estimators in the growth equation or
by the fact that the growth equation is a simplification of reality and leaves out useful
estimators.
Page 17 of 37
Cost Implications of Climate Change to Japan
Due to the country's strong industrial base, reliance on fossil fuels, and geographical
vulnerability, Japan is an agent and victim of climate change. This paper presents an analysis
into some aspects of carbon emissions in Japan and its mitigation/adaptation cost, and generic
ramifications towards its economy and society in respect of climate change.
CO2 Emission in Japan
Firstly, some background of Japan’s current emissions should be sketched.
CO2 Emissions per Capita
Per capita CO2 emissions for Japan in 2023 were about 8 metric tons against an average of
4.7 metric tons for the world as a whole (Our World in Data, 2023). That is indicative of the
industrialized character of the economy, heavily dependent on energy-intensive industries
and relying on fossil fuels for energy production. For comparison, regional peers include
South Korea, whose per capita metric tons are 12.1 metric tons, while Germany stands at 7.4
metric tons, reflecting the different stages in the energy transition among advanced
economies .(World Bank, 2023)
The emissions of Japan are mainly driven by high demand for energy consumption,
technological industries, and infrastructural transport arising from the densely populated
urban areas. High as those figures are, over the last decade, Japan has already done quite a lot
trying to reduce its CO2 footprint and has placed a strong emphasis on efficiency and
renewable energies.
Page 18 of 37
Major contributors greenhouse gas emissions
Historically, CO2 emissions by Japan are indicative of industrial development in tandem with
its energy policy. It peaked at 1.4 billion metric tons in 2013 following the Fukushima
nuclear disaster through the late 20th century. The immediate consequence of the Fukushima
nuclear disaster was turning off the reactors, which means it has also had to lean heavily on
coal and liquefied natural gas (LNG) to meet its needs. (World Bank, 2023; Ritchie & Roser,
2024).
This shows a downtrend since 2013 due to the policy of renewable energy and efficient use of
energy at industries and homes. Substantial measures like energy-efficient building codes,
subsidy installation of solar systems, and gains in industrial efficiency have taken place. It
generates nearly 40% of its electricity through coal and natural gas, making electricity
generation the biggest contributor to its emissions. While the investment in renewable energy
is on the rise, these sources have remained marginal because of the extended shutdown of
nuclear plants after Fukushima. The decline has been slow and reflects how arduous
economic transition away from fossil fuel-based energy has been. (IPCC,2021)
Other great contributors to the CO2 emissions include the Transport Sector. Transport
contributes about 20%, driven by both intensive private car use and extensive freight
transportation systems (Our World in Data, 2024). Besides, private car ownership and exportoriented automotive production further raise the country's emission despite its superior public
transportation system.
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On top of this the heavy industries include steel, cement, and petrochemical products and
account for close to 30% of the emissions. Most of these industries are highly energyintensive and create very serious challenges towards decarbonization.
Residential and commercial energy uses, heating, and cooling also emit gases, although the
rate is lower compared to the industrial and transport sectors. (Ritchie & Roser, 2024)
Japan is committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 as part of international goals on climate
change (The Government of Japan, 2023). However, these ambitions come at a considerable
cost and have sectoral impacts.
Energy Transition Costs
The core of Japan's mitigation strategy is shifting from dependence on fossil fuels to
renewable energy. The government increased investment in infrastructure related to solar,
wind, and hydrogen energy. Renewables are expected to contribute about 50% towards
Japan's needs up to 2050. The shift would involve the following:
o Subsidies and Incentives: The government has introduced subsidies for renewable energy
projects and tax incentives for energy-efficient technologies.
o Grid Modernization: Actually, huge investments are required in the grid infrastructure for
integrating intermittent renewable sources like solar and wind.
o Nuclear Energy Revival: The restarting of nuclear reactors, though very controversial, is
also considered a cost-effective method of emission reduction considering its low-carbon
output. (IPCC, 2021)
Page 20 of 37
Sectoral Implications
A lot of sectors will experience grave consequences from these shifts in policy. In special
large changes will have to be implemented in:
o Power Generation:
Fossil fuel-based power plants have to bear the cost of early retirement, phasing out of
coal-based power plants is going on, and the government is putting stricter regulations on
their emissions.
o Automotive Industry:
As the world's leader in car manufacturing, Japan has to bear the high cost of
transitioning to electric vehicles. Huge amounts are needed to subsidize EVs production,
build up charging infrastructure, and ensure global competitiveness.
o Heavy Industries:
This process of transitioning energy-intensive industries to low-carbon production
methods is highly capital-intensive, with considerable technological innovation required.
Costs mitigation climate risk
Geographically vulnerable and relying highly on climate-sensitive sectors, the economic and
social costs of climate change are thus widely faced in Japan.
Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Vulnerability
Proliferation of Sea-Level Rise: Japan is an island country; hence, the effect of sea-level rise
is effective. About 30% of the population of Japan lives in coastal areas, hosting big cities
such as Tokyo, Osaka, and Nagoya. This finishes off the rise in sea levels as far as the
infrastructure, housing, and economic activities of the areas are polished off. Seawalls and
Page 21 of 37
other barriers had a large cost estimate of over $10 billion annually (Japan Ministry of the
Environment, 2023).
More Natural Disasters
Climate change has brought more frequency and intensity of natural disasters in Japan,
including:
·
Typhoons: These have been more frequent and intense, causing widespread
destruction of infrastructure and agriculture. In 2019, Typhoon Hagibis caused more
than $15 billion in damages.
·
Heavy Rainfall and Flooding: Events with record-breaking rainfall have caused
massive flooding, taking lives and creating economic disruptions (Japan Ministry of
the Environment, 2023).
Sectoral Impacts
1. Agriculture:
Japanese agriculture is highly sensitive to changes in precipitation, temperature increase,
and other weather extremities. Climate change comes with reduced production of crops;
hence, this presents a threat to food security and livelihood in the rural areas. (Japan
Ministry of the Environment, 2023).
2. Tourism:
The climate change elements attack the heart of Japan's tourism industry: the bleached
coral reefs in Okinawa, minimal snowfall at the ski resorts that dent one of the high points
in Japan's economy.
3. Manufacturing and Supply Chains:
Page 22 of 37
In Japan, this unfavourable weather disrupts industrial output and the stability of supply
chains, hence negatively affecting the export-oriented Japanese economy. (Japan Ministry
of the Environment, 2023).
Human Health and Well-being
The rise in temperature and heat waves poses a health risk, especially to vulnerable groups
within the population. Diseases from altered ecosystems-malaria, water-borne, and
respiratory-become more frequent and intense, as does heat stress.
Page 23 of 37
Conclusion
Page 24 of 37
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World Bank. (2023). Japan: Country overview and economic indicators. Retrieved from
https://www.worldbank.org
-
Yamamura, K. (Ed.). (1997). The economic emergence of modern Japan. Cambridge
University Press.
Page 26 of 37
Appendix A
year
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
rgdpe
242641
270003
295355
309857
329297
356846
380807
406116
442322
486262
550783
610857
670683
727561
811769
865157
953050
1053519
1186594
1330419
1472604
1569940
1715066
1848609
1796340
1861144
1978885
2110230
2286900
2410772
2474289
2472241
2429995
2383033
2388162
2443306
2610902
2778980
3057875
3300309
3552613
3769375
3898342
Page 27 of 37
rgdpo
pop
emp
avh
hc
csh_c
csh_g
236383
84.274
39
2,030
2.2900 0.50318 0.33141
261289
85.641
40
2,013
2.3225 0.50147 0.27336
287845
86.943
41
1,996
2.3555 0.52206 0.30177
300714
88.146
42
1,979
2.3889 0.56125 0.29497
316636
89.251
43
2,009
2.4229 0.55848 0.28663
341860
90.318
44
2,035
2.4573 0.55660 0.26824
365173
91.274
45
2,085
2.4841 0.56235 0.25163
390844
92.076
46
2,108
2.5113 0.56490 0.23585
419249
92.906
46
2,133
2.5387 0.55381 0.23047
458716
93.819
47
2,156
2.5643 0.54384 0.22710
517906
94.619
48
2,173
2.5831 0.54396 0.21403
574585
95.475
49
2,175
2.6040 0.54714 0.20704
629682
96.368
49
2,153
2.6250 0.53752 0.20197
681809
97.354
50
2,146
2.6462 0.53580 0.20230
758593
98.374
50
2,154
2.6676 0.52953 0.18871
805695
99.436
51
2,135
2.6892 0.52437 0.18622
888281 100.349
52
2,143
2.7109 0.52013 0.17997
980234 101.390
53
2,157
2.7328 0.52113 0.17024
1103783 102.532
54
2,160
2.7549 0.50090 0.16043
1238252 103.750
54
2,147
2.7771 0.48741 0.15090
1366528 104.929
55
2,137
2.7995 0.46825 0.14385
1448840 106.427
55
2,129
2.8195 0.46669 0.14848
1580305 107.976
56
2,132
2.8395 0.46784 0.14539
1707230 109.529
57
2,118
2.8597 0.47555 0.14322
1696485 111.023
57
2,059
2.8801 0.48606 0.14544
1775744 112.413
57
2,030
2.9006 0.48304 0.15707
1895102 113.679
57
2,057
2.9212 0.47319 0.15656
2024704 114.828
58
2,064
2.9420 0.46929 0.15635
2177436 115.879
58
2,068
2.9629 0.46537 0.15508
2322577 116.867
59
2,073
2.9840 0.47309 0.15318
2456739 117.817
59
2,074
3.0052 0.46193 0.15358
2455290 118.733
60
2,069
3.0221 0.46245 0.15476
2421860 119.605
60
2,069
3.0390 0.47685 0.15346
2383653 120.428
61
2,075
3.0560 0.49298 0.15339
2393858 121.189
62
2,089
3.0732 0.49586 0.14868
2468670 121.883
62
2,077
3.0904 0.49034 0.13998
2688586 122.509
62
2,078
3.1077 0.48377 0.13907
2875266 123.073
62
2,084
3.1251 0.48535 0.13961
3163072 123.585
63
2,080
3.1426 0.47463 0.13485
3391144 124.059
64
2,061
3.1602 0.47857 0.13334
3658644 124.505
65
2,028
3.1780 0.49282 0.12517
3886576 124.930
66
2,011
3.1944 0.48073 0.12482
4028565 125.331
67
1,962
3.2109 0.48477 0.12769
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
4002043
4145932
4385240
4650432
4675378
4628120
4594228
4696671
4711252
4701944
4772309
4871486
4936235
5006271
5108800
5017991
4805246
4968421
4909095
4968331
5043419
4963311
5094436
4982681
5003368
4983271
5028348
4149531
4282785
4521830
4756703
4777020
4719695
4719478
4835114
4785269
4781225
4860083
4987367
5110410
5169780
5270967
5180551
4892600
5114662
5032319
5038808
5089779
5020598
5154500
5042445
5048890
5005677
5036891
125.707
126.053
126.365
126.644
126.893
127.117
127.326
127.524
127.714
127.893
128.058
128.204
128.326
128.423
128.494
128.539
128.555
128.542
128.499
128.424
128.314
128.169
127.985
127.763
127.503
127.202
126.860
67
67
68
68
68
67
66
66
66
65
65
65
66
66
67
67
66
66
66
66
66
67
67
68
68
69
70
1,927
1,909
1,912
1,915
1,887
1,867
1,851
1,859
1,843
1,831
1,834
1,842
1,828
1,836
1,827
1,808
1,758
1,779
1,775
1,787
1,767
1,762
1,757
1,747
1,744
1,729
1,691
3.2275
3.2442
3.2609
3.2778
3.2947
3.3117
3.3288
3.3460
3.3609
3.3758
3.3907
3.4058
3.4208
3.4360
3.4512
3.4665
3.4819
3.4973
3.5079
3.5186
3.5293
3.5400
3.5507
3.5615
3.5723
3.5831
3.5940
0.48502
0.49540
0.50118
0.50479
0.50001
0.49743
0.50244
0.49416
0.51120
0.52019
0.51797
0.51429
0.51691
0.52064
0.52448
0.53904
0.55755
0.54635
0.55197
0.56279
0.59206
0.58053
0.55810
0.53235
0.52966
0.53440
0.53164
With the index:
Rgdpe: Expenditure-side real GDP at chained PPPs (in mil. 2017US$)
Pop: Population (in millions)
Emp: Number of persons engaged (in millions)
Avh: Average annual hours worked by persons engaged
Hc: Human capital index, based on years of schooling and returns to education
Cgdpo: Output-side real GDP at current PPPs (in mil. 2017US$)
Cn: Capital stock at current PPPs (in mil. 2017US$)
csh_c: Share of household consumption at current PPPs
csh_g: Share of government consumption at current PPPs
Page 28 of 37
0.12979
0.13515
0.13598
0.13240
0.13737
0.14225
0.14877
0.15122
0.15958
0.16430
0.16859
0.16831
0.16899
0.16799
0.16908
0.17353
0.18721
0.18533
0.19732
0.19583
0.19317
0.19769
0.19649
0.20364
0.20747
0.21277
0.21662
Appendix B
yea real_gdp(o growth capital_ capital_gr labor_s capital_incom capital_accum
r
utput)
_gdp
stock
owth
hare
e_share
ulation
195
0
242641
783678
0.76
0.24
195
1
270003
11%
825068
5%
0.70
0.30
2%
195
2
295355
9%
857562
4%
0.66
0.34
1%
195
3
309857
5%
885546
3%
0.64
0.36
1%
195
4
329297
6%
920438
4%
0.63
0.37
1%
195
5
356846
8%
965033
5%
0.62
0.38
2%
195
6
380807
7% 1021960
6%
0.61
0.39
2%
195
7
406116
7% 1094025
7%
0.60
0.40
3%
195
8
442322
9% 1162791
6%
0.57
0.43
3%
195
9
486262
10% 1249161
7%
0.53
0.47
3%
196
0
550783
13% 1374002
10%
0.49
0.51
5%
196
1
610857
11% 1535518
12%
0.45
0.55
6%
196
2
670683
10% 1704006
11%
0.41
0.59
6%
196
3
727561
8% 1888648
11%
0.39
0.61
6%
196
4
811769
12% 2104431
11%
0.36
0.64
7%
196
5
865157
7% 2317744
10%
0.34
0.66
6%
196
6
953050
10% 2555053
10%
0.32
0.68
6%
196
7
1053519
11% 2856251
12%
0.30
0.70
7%
196
8
1186594
13% 3228528
13%
0.27
0.73
8%
196
9
1330419
12% 3667363
14%
0.24
0.76
9%
197
0
1472604
11% 4204760
15%
0.22
0.78
10%
197
1
1569940
7% 4682139
11%
0.21
0.79
8%
197
2
1715066
9% 5137251
10%
0.20
0.80
7%
Page 29 of 37
197
3
197
4
197
5
197
6
197
7
197
8
197
9
198
0
198
1
198
2
198
3
198
4
198
5
198
6
198
7
198
8
198
9
199
0
199
1
199
2
199
3
199
4
199
5
199
6
199
7
1848609
8%
5625218
9%
0.19
0.81
7%
1796340
-3%
6114490
9%
0.19
0.81
7%
1861144
4%
6649087
9%
0.18
0.82
7%
1978885
6%
7294459
10%
0.17
0.83
7%
2110230
7%
8158217
12%
0.17
0.83
9%
2286900
8%
13%
0.16
0.84
10%
2410772
5%
12%
0.15
0.85
9%
2474289
3%
8%
0.15
0.85
6%
2472241
0%
0%
0.15
0.85
0%
2429995
-2%
9238424
1038235
0
1117016
8
1119096
4
1053528
8
-6%
0.16
0.84
-5%
2383033
-2%
9795500
-7%
0.16
0.84
-6%
2388162
0%
9386256
-4%
0.17
0.83
-4%
2443306
2%
9477341
1%
0.16
0.84
1%
2610902
7%
5%
0.15
0.85
4%
2778980
6%
7%
0.15
0.85
5%
3057875
10%
9%
0.13
0.87
7%
3300309
8%
10%
0.13
0.87
8%
3552613
8%
11%
0.12
0.88
9%
3769375
6%
11%
0.11
0.89
9%
3898342
3%
10%
0.11
0.89
8%
4002043
3%
9%
0.10
0.90
7%
4145932
4%
8%
0.10
0.90
7%
4385240
6%
7%
0.10
0.90
6%
4650432
6%
5%
0.09
0.91
4%
4675378
1%
9961012
1062407
2
1156711
8
1272254
3
1409126
2
1563601
8
1724623
0
1881598
2
2031663
2
2168572
2
2271129
2
2256269
4
-1%
0.09
0.91
-1%
Page 30 of 37
199
8
199
9
200
0
200
1
200
2
200
3
200
4
200
5
200
6
200
7
200
8
200
9
201
0
201
1
201
2
201
3
201
4
201
5
201
6
201
7
201
8
201
9
4628120
-1%
4594228
-1%
4696671
2%
4711252
0%
4701944
0%
4772309
1%
4871486
2%
4936235
1%
5006271
1%
5108800
2%
5017991
-2%
4805246
-4%
4968421
3%
4909095
-1%
4968331
1%
5043419
2%
4963311
-2%
5094436
3%
4982681
-2%
5003368
0%
4983271
0%
5028348
1%
Page 31 of 37
2235371
0
2206998
2
2204403
8
2198131
0
2179357
6
2234735
2
2302787
4
2388389
0
2494620
8
2586504
0
2668809
8
2655273
4
2639402
4
2620102
2
2556817
0
2484896
8
2435086
0
2433680
2
2444418
6
2360176
0
2370163
4
2388401
4
-1%
0.09
0.91
-1%
-1%
0.09
0.91
-1%
0%
0.09
0.91
0%
0%
0.09
0.91
0%
-1%
0.09
0.91
-1%
3%
0.08
0.92
2%
3%
0.08
0.92
3%
4%
0.08
0.92
3%
4%
0.08
0.92
4%
4%
0.08
0.92
3%
3%
0.08
0.92
3%
-1%
0.08
0.92
0%
-1%
0.08
0.92
-1%
-1%
0.08
0.92
-1%
-2%
0.08
0.92
-2%
-3%
0.08
0.92
-3%
-2%
0.08
0.92
-2%
0%
0.08
0.92
0%
0%
0.08
0.92
0%
-3%
0.08
0.92
-3%
0%
0.09
0.91
0%
1%
0.08
0.92
1%
Appendix C
Part 1
year
pop
pop growth
emp
perc empl
1950
84.27
39.408
47%
1951
85.64
1.6%
40.385
47%
1952
86.94
1.5%
41.342
48%
1953
88.15
1.4%
42.262
48%
1954
89.25
1.3%
42.802
48%
1955
90.32
1.2%
44.174
49%
1956
91.27
1.1%
45.048
49%
1957
92.08
0.9%
46.237
50%
1958
92.91
0.9%
46.420
50%
1959
93.82
1.0%
46.820
50%
1960
94.62
0.9%
47.911
51%
1961
95.47
0.9%
48.580
51%
1962
96.37
0.9%
49.207
51%
1963
97.35
1.0%
49.628
51%
1964
98.37
1.0%
50.276
51%
1965
99.44
1.1%
51.086
51%
1966
100.35
0.9%
52.134
52%
1967
101.39
1.0%
53.138
52%
1968
102.53
1.1%
54.024
53%
1969
103.75
1.2%
54.434
52%
1970
104.93
1.1%
55.017
52%
1971
106.43
1.4%
55.478
52%
1972
107.98
1.5%
55.790
52%
1973
109.53
1.4%
57.063
52%
1974
111.02
1.4%
56.837
51%
1975
112.41
1.3%
56.681
50%
1976
113.68
1.1%
57.173
50%
1977
114.83
1.0%
57.880
50%
1978
115.88
0.9%
58.446
50%
1979
116.87
0.9%
59.048
51%
1980
117.82
0.8%
59.469
50%
1981
118.73
0.8%
59.956
50%
1982
119.61
0.7%
60.476
51%
1983
120.43
0.7%
61.391
51%
1984
121.19
0.6%
61.595
51%
1985
121.88
0.6%
61.912
51%
1986
122.51
0.5%
62.168
51%
1987
123.07
0.5%
62.394
51%
1988
123.58
0.4%
63.111
51%
1989
124.06
0.4%
64.028
52%
1990
124.51
0.4%
65.104
52%
Page 32 of 37
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
124.93
125.33
125.71
126.05
126.37
126.64
126.89
127.12
127.33
127.52
127.71
127.89
128.06
128.20
128.33
128.42
128.49
128.54
128.56
128.54
128.50
128.42
128.31
128.17
127.99
127.76
127.50
127.20
126.86
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.3%
66.391
67.118
67.356
67.430
67.658
67.726
68.184
67.342
66.423
65.916
65.616
64.805
64.804
65.197
65.773
66.285
66.842
66.798
66.095
66.015
66.010
65.835
66.268
66.693
66.983
67.621
68.253
69.365
69.977
53%
54%
54%
53%
54%
53%
54%
53%
52%
52%
51%
51%
51%
51%
51%
52%
52%
52%
51%
51%
51%
51%
52%
52%
52%
53%
54%
55%
55%
Part 2
year
hours/emp
lab in hours
growth lab
hci
growth in hc
1950
2,030
80014
2.2900
1951
2,013
81294
2%
2.3225
1.4200%
1952
1,996
82507
1%
2.3555
1.4200%
1953
1,979
83619
1%
2.3889
1.4200%
1954
2,009
85987
3%
2.4229
1.4200%
1955
2,035
89872
5%
2.4573
1.4200%
1956
2,085
93925
5%
2.4841
1.0924%
1957
2,108
97469
4%
2.5113
1.0924%
1958
2,133
99021
2%
2.5387
1.0924%
1959
2,156
100955
2%
2.5643
1.0094%
1960
2,173
104105
3%
2.5831
0.7342%
1961
2,175
105677
2%
2.6040
0.8077%
Page 33 of 37
eff lab
growth eff lab
183231.8
188806.9
3.0%
194345.4
2.9%
199761.9
2.8%
208335.2
4.3%
220840.4
6.0%
233320
5.7%
244768.7
4.9%
251383.4
2.7%
258880.2
3.0%
268917.8
3.9%
275184.3
2.3%
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Page 34 of 37
2,153
2,146
2,154
2,135
2,143
2,157
2,160
2,147
2,137
2,129
2,132
2,118
2,059
2,030
2,057
2,064
2,068
2,073
2,074
2,069
2,069
2,075
2,089
2,077
2,078
2,084
2,080
2,061
2,028
2,011
1,962
1,927
1,909
1,912
1,915
1,887
1,867
1,851
1,859
1,843
1,831
1,834
1,842
1,828
1,836
1,827
105927
106518
108271
109075
111719
114596
116709
116870
117584
118128
118926
120833
117011
115078
117633
119465
120865
122389
123335
124040
125101
127377
128688
128577
129216
130027
131299
131986
132058
133495
131694
129780
128731
129334
129681
128671
125694
122943
122504
120937
118632
118863
120086
120245
121726
122113
0%
1%
2%
1%
2%
3%
2%
0%
1%
0%
1%
2%
-3%
-2%
2%
2%
1%
1%
1%
1%
1%
2%
1%
0%
0%
1%
1%
1%
0%
1%
-1%
-1%
-1%
0%
0%
-1%
-2%
-2%
0%
-1%
-2%
0%
1%
0%
1%
0%
2.6250
2.6462
2.6676
2.6892
2.7109
2.7328
2.7549
2.7771
2.7995
2.8195
2.8395
2.8597
2.8801
2.9006
2.9212
2.9420
2.9629
2.9840
3.0052
3.0221
3.0390
3.0560
3.0732
3.0904
3.1077
3.1251
3.1426
3.1602
3.1780
3.1944
3.2109
3.2275
3.2442
3.2609
3.2778
3.2947
3.3117
3.3288
3.3460
3.3609
3.3758
3.3907
3.4058
3.4208
3.4360
3.4512
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.8077%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.7115%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5605%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.5167%
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.4432%
278062.9
281871.5
288824.2
293319.4
302858.2
313164.9
321516.8
324561.1
329179.5
333056.2
337692.4
345547.4
336998.9
333790
343629
351462.4
358111.8
365206.9
370650
374855.3
380182.6
389269.7
395479.7
397351.7
401566.1
406349.1
412623.6
417107.8
419676
426434.1
422856.2
418862.5
417624.6
421748.3
425065.6
423931.2
416264.8
409257.5
409903
406454.8
400472.8
403031.6
408982.9
411340.6
418251.6
421442
1.0%
1.4%
2.5%
1.6%
3.3%
3.4%
2.7%
0.9%
1.4%
1.2%
1.4%
2.3%
-2.5%
-1.0%
2.9%
2.3%
1.9%
2.0%
1.5%
1.1%
1.4%
2.4%
1.6%
0.5%
1.1%
1.2%
1.5%
1.1%
0.6%
1.6%
-0.8%
-0.9%
-0.3%
1.0%
0.8%
-0.3%
-1.8%
-1.7%
0.2%
-0.8%
-1.5%
0.6%
1.5%
0.6%
1.7%
0.8%
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
1,808
1,758
1,779
1,775
1,787
1,767
1,762
1,757
1,747
1,744
1,729
1,691
120750
116176
117460
117187
117633
117062
117519
117682
118141
119013
119931
118337
-1%
-4%
1%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
0%
1%
1%
-1%
3.4665
3.4819
3.4973
3.5079
3.5186
3.5293
3.5400
3.5507
3.5615
3.5723
3.5831
3.5940
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.4432%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
0.3034%
With the index:
Pop: population in millions
Emp: employed in millions
Lab in hours: The total labor in millions of hours
hci: Human capital index, based on years of schooling and returns to education
eff lab: Effective labor or labor multiplied by human capital
Page 35 of 37
418582.9
404512.3
410794.8
411084.5
413901.1
413140.6
416013.9
417855.1
420754.6
425148.3
429728.2
425300.1
-0.7%
-3.4%
1.6%
0.1%
0.7%
-0.2%
0.7%
0.4%
0.7%
1.0%
1.1%
-1.0%
Appendix D
Year
Growth technology
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Growth effective labor
1.2%
1.4%
1.5%
1.8%
4.2%
5.9%
4.9%
3.1%
3.2%
4.7%
0.8%
3.8%
3.9%
4.7%
5.7%
3.3%
-1.0%
2.7%
2.0%
-2.8%
1.0%
-0.4%
0.4%
1.2%
1.3%
-0.7%
1.1%
0.3%
0.0%
1.3%
2.7%
0.5%
1.6%
2.9%
1.2%
1.6%
-0.2%
-0.8%
-1.5%
-0.1%
0.6%
0.7%
-0.5%
-1.4%
-0.6%
1.4%
-0.2%
0.2%
0.5%
0.7%
0.5%
-0.3%
0.5%
-1.3%
-3.6%
3.2%
-0.2%
0.9%
1.8%
-0.4%
0.6%
-0.2%
1.1%
-0.7%
0.8%
Page 36 of 37
Growth capital
0.0%
3.0%
2.9%
2.8%
2.7%
2.6%
2.2%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
1.6%
1.7%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
1.9%
1.7%
1.8%
1.9%
2.0%
1.9%
2.1%
2.2%
2.1%
2.1%
2.0%
1.8%
1.7%
1.6%
1.6%
1.5%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.9%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.2%
Labor share
4.8%
5.9%
7.1%
6.3%
7.4%
10.0%
11.8%
11.0%
10.8%
11.4%
10.1%
10.2%
11.8%
13.0%
13.6%
14.7%
11.4%
9.7%
9.5%
8.7%
8.7%
9.7%
11.8%
13.2%
12.4%
7.6%
0.2%
-5.9%
-7.0%
-4.2%
1.0%
5.1%
6.7%
8.9%
10.0%
10.8%
11.0%
10.3%
9.1%
8.0%
6.7%
4.7%
-0.7%
-0.9%
-1.3%
-0.1%
-0.3%
-0.9%
2.5%
3.0%
3.7%
4.4%
3.7%
3.2%
-0.5%
-0.6%
-0.7%
-2.4%
-2.8%
-2.0%
-0.1%
0.4%
-3.4%
0.4%
0.8%
Captial share
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.621
0.618
0.622
0.626
0.615
0.606
0.597
0.589
0.580
0.577
0.574
0.583
0.591
0.596
0.604
0.599
0.589
0.596
0.597
0.592
0.582
0.582
0.570
0.563
0.554
0.554
0.554
0.550
0.565
0.574
0.561
0.573
0.570
0.563
0.565
0.556
0.565
0.564
0.564
0.564
Growth gdp
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.379
0.382
0.378
0.374
0.385
0.394
0.403
0.411
0.420
0.423
0.426
0.417
0.409
0.404
0.396
0.401
0.411
0.404
0.403
0.408
0.418
0.418
0.430
0.437
0.446
0.446
0.446
0.450
0.435
0.426
0.439
0.427
0.430
0.437
0.435
Labor*laborshare
8.4%
6.7%
6.6%
8.9%
9.9%
13.3%
10.9%
9.8%
8.5%
11.6%
6.6%
10.2%
10.5%
12.6%
12.1%
10.7%
6.6%
9.2%
7.8%
-2.8%
3.6%
6.3%
6.6%
8.4%
5.4%
2.6%
-0.1%
-1.7%
-1.9%
0.2%
2.3%
6.9%
6.4%
10.0%
7.9%
7.6%
6.1%
3.4%
2.7%
3.6%
5.8%
6.0%
0.5%
-1.0%
-0.7%
2.2%
0.3%
-0.2%
1.5%
2.1%
1.3%
1.4%
2.0%
-1.8%
-4.2%
3.4%
-1.2%
1.2%
1.5%
-1.6%
2.6%
-2.2%
0.4%
-0.4%
0.9%
capital*capital share
0.0%
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.6%
1.3%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.0%
1.1%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.2%
1.2%
1.2%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.3%
1.2%
1.1%
1.1%
1.0%
1.0%
0.9%
0.8%
0.8%
0.7%
0.7%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.6%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.5%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.4%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.3%
0.2%
0.2%
0.1%
0.1%
0.1%
total growth equation
1.8%
2.2%
2.7%
2.4%
2.8%
3.8%
4.5%
4.2%
4.1%
4.3%
3.8%
3.9%
4.5%
4.9%
5.2%
5.6%
4.3%
3.7%
3.6%
3.3%
3.3%
3.7%
4.5%
5.0%
4.7%
2.9%
0.1%
-2.2%
-2.7%
-1.6%
0.4%
1.9%
2.5%
3.3%
3.8%
4.2%
4.4%
4.2%
3.8%
3.4%
2.9%
2.0%
-0.3%
-0.4%
-0.5%
0.0%
-0.1%
-0.3%
1.0%
1.2%
1.6%
1.9%
1.6%
1.4%
-0.2%
-0.3%
-0.3%
-1.1%
-1.2%
-0.9%
0.0%
0.2%
-1.5%
0.2%
0.3%
residual
3.1%
5.6%
6.0%
5.9%
8.6%
11.3%
10.7%
8.4%
8.5%
10.3%
5.6%
8.7%
9.5%
10.8%
12.0%
10.0%
4.4%
7.6%
6.8%
1.7%
5.5%
4.6%
6.3%
7.6%
7.3%
3.4%
2.3%
-0.8%
-1.6%
0.7%
4.0%
3.2%
4.8%
7.0%
5.8%
6.5%
4.9%
4.0%
2.9%
3.8%
4.0%
3.2%
-0.3%
-1.3%
-0.6%
1.8%
0.2%
0.3%
1.9%
2.3%
2.4%
1.9%
2.4%
0.5%
-3.5%
3.3%
-0.3%
0.1%
0.9%
-1.0%
0.8%
0.1%
-0.2%
-0.4%
1.3%
5.3%
1.1%
0.6%
3.0%
1.3%
2.0%
0.2%
1.4%
0.0%
1.3%
0.9%
1.5%
1.1%
1.8%
0.1%
0.6%
2.2%
1.7%
1.0%
-4.5%
-1.9%
1.7%
0.4%
0.8%
-1.9%
-0.7%
-2.4%
-0.9%
-0.3%
-0.5%
-1.7%
3.6%
1.6%
3.1%
2.2%
1.2%
1.2%
-0.6%
-0.2%
-0.2%
1.7%
2.8%
0.8%
0.3%
-0.1%
0.4%
0.2%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.2%
-1.1%
-0.5%
-0.3%
-2.2%
-0.8%
0.1%
-0.9%
1.1%
0.6%
-0.6%
1.9%
-2.3%
0.6%
0.0%
-0.3%
Appendix E
Formulas used
-
change = (new-old)/old
-
labor or hours worked = empl*avh
-
growth in effective labor = growth in labor + growth in human capital
-
labor share = effective labor/gdp
-
income share = 1 - labor share
-
saving rate = (GDP - (GDP*household saving rate + GDP*government saving
rate))/GDP
-
capital accumulation = income share*(difference in capital stock/capital stock)
-
consumer spending = consumer saving rate * gdp
-
governement spending = goverenment saving rate * gdp
Page 37 of 37