2023 Hurricane Season
The Claim
Homewood challenges the belief that hurricanes are becoming more frequent and intense due to climate
change. He argues that:
1. The increase in hurricanes is largely due to improvements in observation technology, not that
hurricanes are actually on the rise
2. Historical records are incomplete, making it seem like they’re increasing
3. Long-term data (1850s-present) show no significant upward trend in their frequency or intensity
4. Natural climate variability plays a bigger role in their activity than human-caused global warming
No long-term increase
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US landfalling hurricanes (1851-present)
 Has the longest and most reliable record
 There has been no significant increase in the number of hurricanes making landfall in the US
since the 19th century
 The 2000s-2020s are below historical highs, like 1890s and 1940s
Atlantic Basin Hurricanes (1878-present)
 Before satellites, hurricanes were missed if they stayed over open ocean
 When adjusting to this fact, there is no increasing trend
Global hurricane trends (1970s-present)
 Since satellite monitoring began in the 1970s, there has been no upward trend in total hurricane
numbers worldwide
 The number of major hurricanes fluctuates but does not show any clear long-term increase
Observational bias: Why hurricanes seem worse now
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Improvement in hurricane detection
Changes in wind speed measurements
More media coverage & economic impact
Key statistics (2023)
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Atlantic activity
 Total: 7 (slightly below 30-year average)
 Major (category 3+): 3 (also near or below average)
Global activity
 Total: 46 (long-term average of 47)
 Major (category 3+): 31 (slightly above average, but lower than previous years)
Regional trends
 North Atlantic had a slightly lower-than-average hurricane count
 Pacific hurricanes followed a similar pattern, with no clear increase
 In Australian region, hurricanes have declined since the 1970s
IPCC and NOAA
 IPCC’s 2021 report:
 Low confidence in long-term hurricane trends
 No strong evidence that they’re becoming more frequent or stronger
 NOAA’s findings:
 No increase in US landfalling hurricanes
 No clear trend in Atlantic hurricane intensity or frequency