Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 Contents lists available at ScienceDirect Early Childhood Research Quarterly A longitudinal population study of literacy and numeracy outcomes for children identified with speech, language, and communication needs in early childhood Sharynne McLeod ∗ , Linda J. Harrison, Cen Wang Charles Sturt University, Bathurst, NSW, Australia a r t i c l e i n f o Article history: Received 25 March 2016 Received in revised form 16 July 2018 Accepted 31 July 2018 Available online 28 August 2018 Keywords: Speech Language Communication Literacy Numeracy Growth trajectories a b s t r a c t Speech and language competence in early childhood can influence academic achievement at school. The aim of this research was to examine longitudinal progress in literacy and numeracy achievement from age 8 through 12 years for children identified as typically developing or with speech and language concern (SLC) based on parent-reported concern about speech and language at ages 4–5 and 6–7 years. Participants were 4322 children in the K(indergarten) cohort and 4073 children in the B(irth) cohort of the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC). The majority of children identified with SLC had not accessed speechlanguage pathology services. Linked data from national testing of literacy and numeracy achievement were analysed for the K cohort in Grades 3, 5, and 7, and for the B cohort in Grade 3. Cross-sectional analyses showed that children with SLC achieved lower scores for reading, writing, spelling, grammar, and numeracy at all assessment points than children with typical speech and language skills. Results for all children, however, were above the national minimum standard for each grade level. Longitudinal growth curve analyses showed no difference in the growth trajectories for literacy and numeracy test scores for children in the typically developing and SLC groups, suggesting that SLC children showed typical patterns of progression but did not catch up to the levels achieved by their typically developing peers. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. 1. Introduction Children’s communicative capacity encompasses the ability to speak and listen using the conventions of speech1 (consonants, vowels, prosody) and language (vocabulary, grammar, sentence structure, discourse) in a variety of contexts. During early childhood, most children learn to use the conventions of speech and language; however, a significant proportion have speech, language and communication needs in comparison to their peers (Law, Boyle, Harris, Harkness, & Nye, 2000; McLeod & Harrison, 2009; McLeod & McKinnon, 2007). These children require, and can benefit from, additional speech and language support to maximise their academic and social potential. In many countries, speech and language disorder2 is recognised in national legislation for children ∗ Corresponding author at: Charles Sturt University, Panorama Ave, Bathurst, NSW, Australia. E-mail address: smcleod@csu.edu.au (S. McLeod). 1 Sign language is another mode of communication used instead of or in addition to speech, but is not addressed in this paper. 2 Speech and language disorder is used in this paper as an umbrella term to encompass terms such as developmental language disorder (previously called specific https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecresq.2018.07.004 0885-2006/© 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved. with disabilities, and speech-language pathology intervention is made available within educational settings (e.g., United Kingdom: Bercow, 2018; Department for Health, 2008; McCartney, Boyle, & Ellis, 2015; United States: Farquharson, Tambyraja, Logan, Justice, & Schmitt, 2015; US Department of Education, 2002). In Australia, however, despite national recognition of “the significant benefits to both the individual and society of a strategy that prioritises early intervention of speech and language disorders” (Commonwealth of Australia, 2014, p. 109), children with speech and language disorder are rarely mentioned in education, health, or disability legislation, policy or reports (McLeod, Press, & Phelan, 2010), and the provision of speech-language pathology intervention services is inconsistent across state and local government jurisdictions (Speech Pathology Australia, 2014). Speech and language competence in the years before school is an important prerequisite for later achievements in literacy. Speech and language disorder and late talking have been linked with poorer performance in phonological processing and reading language impairment), speech sound disorder, communication disorder, and speech, language and communication needs. 508 S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 (Anthony et al., 2011; Lewis, Freebairn, & Taylor, 2000; Rescorla, 2009) that extends to adolescence (Lewis et al., 2015). Longitudinal growth curve studies of children in early childhood identified as having speech and language disorder show that these children start school with underdeveloped reading skills, compared to their peers with typical speech and language, and continue to achieve lower levels of reading, despite having similar growth trajectories to children with typical speech and language skills (Foster & Miller, 2007; Skibbe et al., 2008). Similarly, studies of children recruited at school entry or Grade 1 and followed across the school grades have shown significant differences in achievement but similar rates of growth for typically developing children versus children with speech and language disorder, in reading (Catts, Bridges, Little, & Tomblin, 2008) and writing (Kim, Puranik, & Al Otaiba, 2015). Comparative studies of children with speech and language disorder also exist, but have either not modelled the effects on growth trajectories in reading or other areas of literacy (Nathan, Stackhouse, Goulandris, & Snowling, 2004a) or, if they do, have not contrasted growth patterns with those of typically developing children (Law, Tomblin, & Zhang, 2008; Wei, Blackorby, & Schiller, 2011). Of note, two of the latter studies showed that children with speech and language disorder had poorer outcomes than children with “specific speech difficulties” (Nathan et al., 2004a, p. 377) and better outcomes that children with multiple disabilities or intellectual impairment (Wei et al., 2011). Researchers have also linked speech and language competence in early childhood with children’s later numeracy skills (Dockrell & Lindsay, 1998; Nathan, Stackhouse, Goulandris, & Snowling, 2004b). Children with speech and language disorder have been found to have difficulty with symbolic representation, verbal counting, recall of numbers, and mathematical calculations (Arvedson, 2002; Fazio, 1996, 1999; Harrison, McLeod, Berthelsen, & Walker, 2009; Hecht, Torgesen, Wagner, & Rashotte, 2001). These findings are not surprising, since the acquisition and application of mathematical knowledge require language (Chen & ChaloubDeville, 2016). For example, Purpura, Hume, Sims, and Lonigan (2011), reported a predictive relationship between young children’s vocabulary and print knowledge and scores on numeracy assessments. The present study extends these two areas of research by applying longitudinal analytical techniques to a large sample of children to examine children’s speech and language status at school entry as a predictor of subsequent literacy and numeracy achievement. The study not only builds on previous evidence that children with speech and language disorder are at risk of difficulties with literacy and numeracy, but also examines the question of whether the shape of children’s growth trajectories differs by speech and language status. Whilst some studies have reported no difference in rates of growth (Catts et al., 2008; Kim et al., 2015), Skibbe et al. (2008) addressed the specific question of whether relative reading trajectories for children with typical language and with “language difficulties” (p. 475) were best represented by a cumulative trajectory, where the gap between the two groups widens over time, or a compensatory trajectory where the differences between the groups decreases over time. Their analysis of reading trajectories from preK to Grade 5 showed a higher rate of growth over the school years for the children with language difficulties than for children with typical language, “suggesting some compensation for the reading disadvantages that were seen at 54 months” (Skibbe et al., 2008, p. 482). Nonetheless, they noted that these differences were difficult to see in the parallel trajectories of the two groups, and that children with language difficulties were unlikely to ever catch up to their typically developing peers. A further contribution of the present study is its use of national test results to compare the achievement of typically developing children versus children identified with speech and language concern. As such, the study is highly relevant to recent interest in the results of international comparative testing in primary and secondary schools (Meyer & Benavot, 2013; National Center for Educational Statistics, n.d.). It extends the small number of studies that have examined national test results in relation to children’s “diverse needs” (Carmichael, MacDonald, & McFarlandPiazza, 2014, p. 640) or “developmental speech disorder” (Nathan et al., 2004b, p. 173). Australia, along with United States, United Kingdom, and a number of other countries has instituted national testing on a regular basis, with student performance results being used by governments, schools, and parents for accountability of schools and teachers, benchmarking, identification of areas of need, and funding support. Australia’s National Assessment Program – Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) assesses all children in Grades 3 and 5 of primary school and Grades 7 and 9 of secondary school on numeracy abilities and four aspects of literacy: reading, writing, spelling, and grammar/punctuation (Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority, ACARA, 2014). In the present study, we access children’s NAPLAN test scores through linked data in the Longitudinal Study of Australian Children (LSAC), which has allowed comparisons of the educational attainments of the study children with national minimal standards for achievement at each Grade level in the wider Australian population of school students. Furthermore, our analyses of NAPLAN outcomes within a large population sample (LSAC) allow the effects of important child and demographic factors on outcomes to be statistically controlled. Previous research has shown that speech and language disorder, and children’s literacy and numeracy achievement are associated with child factors including child sex, temperament, hearing, and motor coordination, and family factors including parental education level, family socio-economic status, family history of speech and language difficulties, maternal wellbeing, parents’ language background other than English, and sibling status (Harrison & McLeod, 2010; Letts, Edwards, Sinka, Schaefer, & Gibbons, 2013; Taylor, Christensen, Lawrence, Mitrou, & Zubrick, 2014; Wren, Miller, Peters, Emond, & Roulstone, 2016). Our study design also acknowledges that speech and language concern can present comorbidly with developmental disabilities, such as Down Syndrome and autism spectrum disorder (McCormack, Harrison, McLeod, & McAllister, 2011), and that in Australia, Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander children have a greater risk of hearing loss (Aithal, Yonovitz, & Aithal, 2008). A further consideration when researching an Australian national sample is the unavailability of school-based identification and referral of children with speech and language disorder, as occurs systematically in the United States (e.g., Lewis et al., 2015) and the United Kingdom (e.g., Law et al., 2008). For this reason, we also examined parent-reported access to speech-language pathology services across the five data-points of the study (preschool, Grade 1, Grade 3, Grade 5, and Grade 7). 1.1. Aims The aim of this research was to examine literacy and numeracy achievement at three time-points (Grades 3, 5, and 7) for children identified in early childhood as either typically developing or with speech and language concern (SLC), based on parent report. By using a large two-cohort, nationally representative study and linked data to national test scores, the study sought to compare children’s achievement with national standards for literacy and numeracy attainment at Grade 3 for both cohorts, and Grades 5 and 7 for the older cohort. A further aim was to examine growth trajectories of literacy and numeracy achievement from Grades 3 to 7 for the older cohort. Based on the results of earlier largecohort, longitudinal studies (Catts et al., 2008; Skibbe et al., 2008), we hypothesised that children identified with SLC in early child- S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 hood will (1) achieve lower scores on literacy and numeracy tests than their typically developing peers at all assessment points, but (2) show similar growth trajectories for literacy and numeracy to their typically developing peers. 2. Method 2.1. Participants Participants were from LSAC a two-cohort, nationally representative, longitudinal study of children’s development funded by the Australian Government Department of Social Services to examine the lives of approximately 10000 Australian children (Australian Institute of Family Studies, AIFS, 2009). The sampling frame for LSAC was the Medicare Australia (public health) database, which is the most comprehensive database of the Australian population. A two-stage clustered design was used: postcodes (zipcodes) were randomly selected; children were randomly selected within each postcode. Stratification was implemented to ensure the number of selected children was proportionate to the total number of children within each state or territory. Data collection started in 2004 when children in the (K)indergarten cohort (N = 4983) were 4.5–5 years old and children in the (B)irth cohort (N = 5107) were 6–12 months old. Subsequent waves of data have been collected every two years. At the time of writing this paper, five waves of data were available for analyses: the K cohort to age 12–13 years, the B cohort to age 8–9 years. Participants in the current study were all children in the K and B cohorts of LSAC whose parents provided responses to questions about the child’s speech and language in two waves of data collection: when the child was age 4–5 years (wave 1 for the K cohort; wave 3 for the B cohort) and age 6–7 years (wave 2 for the K cohort; wave 4 for the B cohort). The LSAC waves of data collection, and data available for the present study and sample are summarised in Table 1. Note that the smaller sample size for K cohort Grade 3 (wave 3) was due to the large number of children who entered Grade 3 in 2007, the year before national testing (NAPLAN) was introduced. 2.1.1. K(indergarten) cohort A total of 4332 children of the original 4983 K cohort sample provided data for the present study; 2209 (51%) were boys and 2123 (49%) girls. The average age at recruitment (wave 1) was 4.17 years (SD = .38). Compared to the included cases, children who were not included because of missing data for speech and language at age 4–5 or 6–7 (n = 651) were more likely to come from families with lower socio-economic position (SEP) (F = 122.13, p < .001), to be of Indigenous background (2 (1) = 10.37, p = .001), and to speak languages other than English as their main language (2 (1) = 60.96, p < .001). The patterns of missingness are typical of longitudinal attritions. 2.1.2. B(irth) cohort Participants were 4073 children (of the original 5107) for whom data were available at wave 3: 2104 (51.7%) were boys and 1969 (48.3%) girls. The average age at wave 3 was 4.25 years (SD = .43). Compared to the included cases, children who were missing (n = 1034) were more likely to come from families with lower SEP (F = 98.16, p < .001), to be Indigenous (2 (1) = 99.59, p < .001), and to speak languages other than English as their main language (2 (1) = 22.33, p < .001). 2.2. Identification and coding of speech and language groups Children’s speech and language status was identified from parents’ responses to two of the ten questions in the Parent’s Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS) (Glascoe, 2000): “Do you 509 have any concerns about how your child talks and makes speech sounds?” (yes, a little, no); and “Do you have any concerns about how your child understands what you say to him?” (yes, a little, no). The PEDS is reported to have good sensitivity and specificity and concurrent validity (Coghlan, Kiing, & Wake, 2003; Glascoe, 1996), although not as high as some other measures (Limbos & Joyce, 2011). A summary of four studies of PEDS indicated a range of 74–79% for sensitivity and 70–80% for specificity for children aged 0–8 years (Glascoe, 2003). The two selected PEDS questions have been used as identifiers in previous papers addressing speech and language of children within LSAC (Harrison & McLeod, 2010; Harrison et al., 2009; McCormack et al., 2011; McLeod & Harrison, 2009). In other studies, these two PEDS questions have been shown to align well with clinical diagnosis by a speech-language pathologist (Harrison, McLeod, McAllister, & McCormack, 2017; McLeod, Harrison, McAllister, & McCormack, 2013). 2.2.1. Typical versus speech and language concern Children in the Typical group consisted of children whose parents gave a rating of no to both of the PEDS questions at 4–5 years and 6–7 years. The children in the SLC group consisted of children whose parents gave a response of yes and/or a little to either of the two PEDS questions at 4–5 years and/or 6–7 years. Our decision to define the typical group as having no speech or language difficulties across two waves of data decreased the chance of including children identified at age 4–5 years whose communication difficulties had resolved by age 6–7 years. It also reduced the chance of parents misidentifying their 4- to 5-year-old children as typical (cf. Harrison et al., 2009). Thus, our definition of typical was conservative (strict), potentially reducing differences between the two groups since the SLC group was likely to include children with a range of impairment from severe to mild, as well as resolved difficulties. For the K cohort, there were 2890 (66.7%) children in the Typical group and 1442 (33.3%) children in the SLC group. For the B cohort, there were 2681 (65.8%) children in the Typical group and 1392 (34.2%) children in the SLC group. 2.3. Access to speech-language pathology services In Australia, children identified with SLC may or may not have had access to speech-language pathology services in early childhood or during their schooling. To investigate this, we used parent and teacher reports collected in each wave. The question asked of parents was: “In the past 12 months, have you used speech pathology services for your child?” The question for teachers was: “What extra services has this child received through your centre/school since being in your group?” with an option being “speech therapy”. 2.4. Child outcomes: NAPLAN literacy and numeracy scores The LSAC dataset includes linked data to NAPLAN results for individual children whose parents provide consent. NAPLAN results for all five subtests (reading, writing, language conventions (spelling, grammar and punctuation), and numeracy) are reported as scaled scores on a range from 0 to 1000. Child outcomes are also reported in Bands, which represent increasing competency for students in Grades 3 to 9 (ACARA, 2014). For each school test Grade, six Bands are used to report student achievement. The second lowest of these six Bands represents the national minimum standard expected of students’ literacy and numeracy at each year (ACARA, 2014; Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority, VCAA, 2009). Students who have not achieved the national minimum standard “are likely to require focused intervention or specialised support to fully participate in schooling” (VCAA, 2009, p. 6). 510 S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 Table 1 Participants from LSAC with valid data who were included in the present study. Age/Grade LSAC Kindergarten Cohort LSAC Birth Cohort Total number of participantsa Valid data for current study Total number of participantsa Valid data for current study 0–1 years – – Not applicable 2–3 years – – 4–5 years/ Preschool Wave 1 N = 4,983 Wave 2 N = 4,464 Wave 3 N = 4,331 Wave 4 N = 4,169 Wave 5 N = 3,956 n = 4,332 n = 3,779 Wave 1 N = 5,107 Wave 2 N = 4,606 Wave 3 N = 4,386 Wave 4 N = 4,242 Wave 5 N = 4,085 – – n = 3,441 – – 6–7 years/ Grade 1 8–9 years/ Grade 3 NAPLANc c 10–11 years/ Grade 5 NAPLAN 12–13 years/ Grade 7 NAPLANc n = 4,332 n = 2,958 b Not applicable n = 4,073 n = 4,073 n = 3,467 a The total number of participants is from Commonwealth of Australia (2016). LSAC Annual statistical report 2015. Retrieved from http://www.growingupinaustralia.gov.au/ pubs/asr/2015/asr2015a.html#a1-4. b Data linkage figures were lower than for subsequent years because approximately one quarter of the cohort were in Grade 3 in 2007, the year before NAPLAN was introduced to Australian schools. c Years that NAPLAN testing was undertaken. – Data were not collected in LSAC for these ages/years. Parent consent for data linkage was collected at wave 3 (2008), the year that NAPLAN testing was introduced. In a detailed analysis and explanation of the LSAC NAPLAN linked data, Daraganova, Edwards, and Sipthorp (2013) reported that parental consent was less likely to be given for children who had lower scores on the Peabody Picture Vocabulary Test, were from non-English speaking backgrounds, whose parents held certificate-level educational attainment, and whose mothers were not working when the child was 4- to 5-years old. Lack of consent accounted for about 5% of missing data. Daraganova et al. also noted that for a small proportion of children (2%), matching was not possible based on the information provided (child’s name and date of birth, school name, and postcode). NAPLAN status was reported for participating LSAC children as: (1) completed all NAPLAN testing for their year group, (2) absent but not for all NAPLAN tests, (3) absent for all NAPLAN tests, (4) exempt from NAPLAN testing. The Australian government allows exemption from testing if students have a significant disability, speak a language other than English, or have lived in Australia for less than a year (ACARA, 2014). Preliminary analyses were conducted to test for possible differences in children’s NAPLAN status, for the Typical and SLC groups (see Table 2). For the K cohort, although the number of exempt children was small, children in the SLC group were significantly more likely to be exempt from NAPLAN testing than children in the Typical group: Grade 3, 2 (3) = 26.70, p < .001; Grade 5, 2 (3) = 30.58, p < .001; and Grade 7, 2 (3) = 27.58, p < .001. Similarly, for the B cohort, children in the SLC group were significantly more likely to be exempted from NAPLAN testing than children in the Typical group: Grade 3, 2 (3) = 68.35, p < .001. In the following analyses, the actual and estimated marginal means of NAPLAN scores are based on children who attended the NAPLAN testing. Children who were exempt from NAPLAN testing were excluded from the NAPLAN cross-sectional comparisons. Subgroup analyses showed that a majority of children in the SLC group who were exempted were reported as having a condition/disability for 6 and more months (≥68.8%), having difficulty learning (≥62.5%) and for a small number, having hearing problems (≥6.3%). McLeod, 2010; Letts et al., 2013; Taylor et al., 2014; Wren et al., 2016) were extracted from the LSAC dataset. These were family socio-economic position (SEP), child sex, language background other than English (LBOTE), Indigenous status, having a disability, and having ongoing hearing problems, all of which were collected via parent report at age 4–5 years.3 SEP is a composite variable derived from parental education, occupational status, and household income (Blakemore, Strazdins, & Gibbons, 2009). Disability was reported as a yes/no response to the following questions: “Does the child have a medical condition or disability that has lasted for 6 months or more?” For these children who received a yes, follow-up questions were asked about 16 possible conditions. Hearing problems was one of the named conditions. Preliminary analyses were conducted for each of these six variables to assess the presence of significant differences across the Typical and SLC groups. Results presented in Supplemental Appendix A confirmed that children in the SLC group were more likely to have a lower family SEP, to be boys, to have a LBOTE, to be Indigenous, to have a disability, or to have hearing problems. The pattern of results was similar for both the K cohort and B cohorts, apart from having a LBOTE and Indigenous status that were only significantly different for the K cohort. 2.6. Data analysis 2.6.1. NAPLAN cross-sectional comparisons: K cohort Grades 3, 5, 7; B cohort Grade 3 To examine the group differences in children’s NAPLAN outcomes at each Grade level, a series of one-way between-group Analysis of Covariance (ANCOVA) tests were conducted (5 analyses for each Grade), comparing the Typical and SLC groups. These analyses controlled for child age and six covariates (SEP, sex, LBOTE, Indigenous background, disability status, and hearing problems). ANCOVA was used to produce estimated marginal means of NAPLAN outcomes for each of the groups. These are the mean scores after statistically removing the effects of the confounding variables. Using estimated marginal means provided a better test of whether 2.5. Child characteristics and demographic variables Six variables identified as key factors affecting speech, language, and communication in childhood (Aithal et al., 2008; Harrison & 3 Disability status was not available for K cohort at 4–5 years; the first available data was at 6–7 years. Therefore, we used disability status at 6–7 years as a covariate for the K cohort. S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 511 Table 2 NAPLAN exemption status for participants in the (K)indergarten and (B)irth cohorts in Grades 3, 5 and 7 in the typical and speech and language concern (SLC) groups. Cohort K Grade Grade 3 Grade 5 Grade 7 B Grade 3 1 Completed all 2 Absent but not for all tests 3 Absent for all 4 Exempt n % n % n % n % Typical Speech and Language Concern Typical Speech and Language Concern Typical Speech and Language Concern 1945 903 2455 1176 2249 1025 96.9% 94.8% 96.4% 95.5% 96.0% 93.3% 39 24 58 24 62 34 2.0% 2.5% 2.3% 1.9% 2.6% 3.1% 19 10 32 14 25 19 1.0% 1.0% 1.3% 1.1% 1.1% 1.7% 2 16 2 18 7 21 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 1.5% 0.3% 1.9% Typical Speech and Language Concern 2227 1065 96.4% 92.0% 56 36 2.4% 3.1% 18 11 0.8% 0.9% 8 46 0.3% 4.0% Group the observed differences in NAPLAN score were due to group differences. Effect size was estimated using partial eta square (p 2 ), which was more appropriate to use in this analysis where control variables were added to the design (Levine & Hullett, 2002). Partial eta squared refers to the sum of squares effect divided by the sum of squares effect plus the sum of squares error. An effect of .01 is small, .06 is medium and .14 is large. 2.6.2. NAPLAN growth trajectories (K cohort) Multilevel modelling using linear mixed model in SPSS (Heck, Thomas, & Tabata, 2014) with restricted maximum likelihood estimation (REML) was conducted to examine the trajectories of children’s NAPLAN reading, writing, grammar, spelling, and numeracy over three time points (i.e., Grade 3, Grade 5, and Grade 7) for the K cohort. In multilevel modelling, repeated measures of children’s NAPLAN outcomes (i.e., Level 1) are nested within individuals (i.e., Level 2). Multilevel modelling can handle missing data and includes all the cases with NAPLAN data available for at least one time point. Initial analyses were conducted for the whole sample. We inspected the shape of each trajectory over time visually, as a recommended initial step (Heck, Thomas, & Tabata, 2014). The shape indicated an increasing trajectory but a deceleration in the rate of change between Grade 5 and Grade 7. Therefore, we included both a linear and a quadratic component as time-related within-subject variables (i.e., Level 1). To avoid multicollinearity, we coded the linear (−1, 0, 1) and quadratic (1, −2, 1) time-related variables to be orthogonal to ensure stabilisation in model estimation (Heck et al., 2014). We then estimated unconditional models without predictors with each of the five NAPLAN tests (i.e., reading, writing, spelling, grammar, and numeracy) as the outcome variable and examined both the fixed and random effects of the model. The equations for the unconditional model are provided in Supplemental Appendix B. Note that for repeated measurements at three time points, the random effects of quadratic slope coefficients across individuals cannot be estimated and were fixed at zero. We also investigated different covariance structures for Level 1 and Level 2 until a parsimonious and stable model was obtained. Children’s trajectories for each of the five NAPLAN subtests are shown in Supplemental Appendix C. The results show the unconditional models with diagonal covariance structure for Level 1 and unstructured covariance structure for Level 2 for each of the five NAPLAN outcomes. Children’s scores on all five NAPLAN subtests increased over time as shown by the significant positive linear growth rate but the growth slowed slightly between the later time points, as evidenced by the significant negative quadratic growth rate. In addition, there was significant variation across individuals in the overall grand mean (Intercept) for all NAPLAN subtest scores. The linear growth rate across individuals achieved significance for only children’s reading and numeracy NAPLAN subtests. Therefore, we fixed the variance of linear growth rate at zero in the follow- ing conditional models for NAPLAN writing, grammar and spelling subtests, with scaled identity covariance structure used for Level 2. Next, we examined the effect of children’s speech and language status on the trajectories by estimating conditional models including the predictor of Typical versus SLC groups, while controlling for children’s age as well as other characteristics and family demographics (SEP, sex, LBOTE, Indigenous background, disability status, and hearing problems). Predicted NAPLAN scores adjusted based on the seven covariates were saved and used for graphing purposes. For all analyses, to reduce the chance of Type I error due to the number of testings, we set alpha at ≤.003 (two tailed) to determine the significance of group differences or parameter estimates of predictors. 3. Results 3.1. Access to speech-language pathology services Children’s access to speech-language pathology services is presented in Table 3 for the K and B cohorts at each wave of data collection for children identified as typically developing (Typical) and having speech and language concern (SLC). Findings indicated that a very small proportion of children in the Typical group (0.1–3.4%) and a larger proportion of children in the SLC group (2.1–32.4%) had accessed speech-language pathology services. Notably, the proportion for the SLC group was far below majority, which is in keeping with the unsystematic provision of speech-language pathology services across Australia. Of further interest is the pattern of results over time, which showed a marked reduction in number of children accessing speech-language pathology services from preschool through the early to middle years of school. Figures for parent-reported access decreased for the K cohort from 31.3% in Preschool, to 21.3% in Grade 1, 12.3% in Grade 3, and 5.5% in Grade 5. A similar pattern was reported for the B cohort: 32.4% in Preschool, 23.2% in Grade 1, and 12.1% in Grade 3. 3.2. NAPLAN achievement relative to bands and national minimum standards NAPLAN Bands represent the increasing complexity of assessed skills in literacy and numeracy for each year of testing (Grades 3–9). Table 4 presents the unadjusted mean scores for each NAPLAN test for children in the Typical group and the SLC group in relation to the NAPLAN Band for each grade. The results show that, for each grade, children in both groups achieved scored that surpassed the national minimum standard. Comparison of Typical vs SLC groups for K-cohort Grade 3 Bands showed that the children in the SLC group scored one Band lower than the Typical group on all five subtests. By Grades 5 and 7, however, children in the two groups achieved equal Band scores, apart from writing where the SLC group were one band lower. Similarly, 512 S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 Table 3 Proportion of participants in the (K)indergarten and (B)irth cohorts of LSAC who accessed, and did not access, speech and language therapy s accessed, and did not access, speech-language pathology services. Cohort K B School Grade Age years Preschool 4–5 Grade 1 Grade 3 Grade 5 6–7 8–9 10–11 Grade 7 12–13 Preschool 4–5 Grade 1 6–7 Grade 3 8–9 Informant Typical Speech and language concern Valid data Access No access Access No access N Parent Teacher Parent Parent Parent Teachera Parent Teacher 3.4% 1.1% 2.0% 1.6% 1.4% 4.7% 0.6% 0.1% 96.6% 98.9% 98.0% 98.4% 98.6% 95.3% 99.4% 99.9% 31.3% 14.3% 21.3% 12.3% 5.5% 13.2% 4.2% 2.1% 68.7% 85.7% 78.7% 87.7% 94.5% 86.8% 95.8% 97.9% 4172 3258 3432 4331 4161 420 3913 2801 Parent Teacher Parent Teachera Parent Teacher 2.7% 2.4% 1.9% 4.0% 1.9% 0.5% 97.3% 97.6% 98.1% 96.0% 98.1% 99.5% 32.4% 17.2% 23.2% 2.8% 12.1% 4.5% 67.6% 82.8% 76.8% 97.2% 87.9% 95.5% 4073 3097 4069 565 3794 3253 a The very low number of reports by teachers is an unexplained aberration in the data collection for wave 4. The figures are reported, but cannot be considered representative of the whole sample. Table 4 Comparison of the unadjusted NAPLAN scaled scores and bands for participants in the (K)indergarten and (B)irth cohorts of LSAC (typical versus speech and language concern (SLC) groups) with the national minimum standard.a National minimum standarda Cohort Subtest Grade Typical K Reading Grade 3 Grade 5 Grade 7 Grade 3 Grade 5 Grade 7 Grade 3 Grade 5 Grade 7 Grade 3 Grade 5 Grade 7 Grade 3 Grade 5 Grade 7 Actual score (Mean) 435.18 518.03 567.32 439.60 504.42 545.39 427.90 502.00 559.91 444.12 527.05 569.99 428.32 508.38 562.44 Band 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 5 6 7 Actual score (Mean) 406.93 486.95 543.00 412.12 476.57 515.18 400.37 479.22 532.72 407.44 493.67 541.31 405.79 490.43 545.28 Band 4 6 7 4 5 6 4 6 7 4 6 7 4 6 7 Range of scores (Mean) >270 and ≤322 >374 and ≤426 >426 and ≤478 >270 and ≤322 >374 and ≤426 >426 and ≤478 >270 and ≤322 >374 and ≤426 >426 and ≤478 >270 and ≤322 >374 and ≤426 >426 and ≤478 >270 and ≤322 >374 and ≤426 >426 and ≤478 Band 2 4 5 2 4 5 2 4 5 2 4 5 2 4 5 Grade 3 Grade 3 Grade 3 Grade 3 Grade 3 433.74 420.94 417.85 437.38 403.54 5 4 4 5 4 392.99 381.24 374.87 392.79 373.77 4 4 3 4 3 >270 and ≤322 >270 and ≤322 >270 and ≤322 >270 and ≤322 >270 and ≤322 2 2 2 2 2 Writing Spelling Grammar Numeracy B a Reading Writing Spelling Grammar Numeracy Speech and language concern Victorian Curriculum and Assessment Authority (2009, p. 6). Grade 3 Band results for the B cohort were one Band lower for the SLC group for all subtests except writing. 3.3. NAPLAN outcomes in Grades 3, 5, and 7 3.3.1. Cross-sectional comparisons of Typical versus SLC groups Children’s NAPLAN scores were then compared for the Typical and SLC groups, after controlling for family SEP, child age, sex, LBOTE, Indigenous status, disability (>6 months), and hearing problems. Results showed significant differences for each NAPLAN subtest (K cohort: Fs (1) ≥ 19.24, p < .001; B cohort: Fs (1) ≥ 35.16, p < .001), with p 2 values ranging from .01 to .02. Children in the SLC group achieved lower scores than children in the Typical group on all NAPLAN subtests (see Table 5). These results support our hypothesis that literacy and numeracy test scores would be lower at all assessment points for children identified in early childhood as having speech and language difficulties. 3.3.2. NAPLAN growth trajectory comparisons of children in the Typical and SLC subgroups Children’s comparative rates of growth in reading, writing, spelling, grammar, and numeracy for the Typical and SLC groups are presented in Table 6 and graphically displayed in Fig. 1. In keeping with our hypothesised expectations, results showed that for each NAPLAN subtest the shapes of the trajectories were similar (parallel) for both groups. There was an initial steep increase in children’s NAPLAN test scores that reduced over time for both the Typical and SLC groups. The rate of linear growth over time by group did not differ (see Table 6 non-significant estimates of linear growth rate by group for each subtest). 4. Discussion The aim of this research was to examine achievement in literacy and numeracy over Grades 3, 5, and 7 for children whose speech and language status was identified at age 4–5 and 6–7 years. Our approach was to conduct secondary data analysis of a two-cohort, S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 513 Table 5 Comparison of NAPLAN estimated marginal mean scores for participants in the (K)indergarten and (B)irth cohorts of LSAC (typical versus speech and language concern (SLC) groups). Cohort NAPLAN test School year (1) Typical EMMa (SE) (2) SLC EMM (SE) F values and p K Reading Year 3 431.51 (1.84) 514.55 (1.50) 564.41 (1.35) 436.04 (1.61) 500.98 (1.31) 541.25 (1.41) 425.12 (1.69) 499.39 (1.31) 557.41 (1.35) 440.64 (1.88) 523.00 (1.59) 566.61 (1.48) 426.08 (1.55) 506.71 (1.36) 560.84 (1.42) 415.09 (2.70) 494.95 (2.22) 549.76 (2.03) 420.00 (2.36) 484.58 (1.93) 524.70 (2.12) 406.77 (2.48) 485.19 (1.94) 538.55 (2.03) 415.21 (2.77) 503.00 (2.35) 549.28 (2.22) 410.87 (2.28) 494.50 (2.01) 549.28 (2.15) F = 24.19 p < .001 F = 51.20 p < .001 F = 34.66 p < .001 F = 30.28 p < .001 F = 47.28 p < .001 F = 40.71 p < .001 F = 35.86 p < .001 F = 35.19 p < .001 F = 57.39 p < .001 F = 55.20 p < .001 F = 47.74 p < .001 F = 40.53 p < .001 F = 29.18 p < .001 F = 24.12 p < .001 F = 19.24 p < .001 429.73 (2.39) 416.85 (1.99) 414.35 (2.17) 432.71 (2.43) 401.33 (2.14) 401.34 (3.45) 389.49 (2.87) 381.90 (3.13) 402.22 (3.51) 378.51 (3.08) F = 43.40 p < .001 F = 58.18 p < .001 F = 68.93 p < .001 F = 48.49 p < .001 F = 35.16 p < .001 Year 5 Year 7 Writing Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Spelling Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Grammar Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 Numeracy Year 3 Year 5 Year 7 B a Reading Year 3 Writing Year 3 Spelling Year 3 Grammar Year 3 Numeracy Year 3 Estimated Marginal Means (EMM) are calculated after controlling for family SEP, child age, sex, LBOTE, Indigenous status, disability (>6 months), and hearing problems. nationally representative Australian study, generating a combined sample of 8395 children tested in Grade 3 and 4332 children tested in Grades 3, 5 and 7. The availability of linked data to nationally administered testing of literary and numeracy achievement allowed the examination of three current and critical questions about the progress of children with speech and language concern (SLC) compared to their typically developing peers. First, using comparative analyses of children’s NAPLAN test scores with Australia’s national minimum standards for achievement in reading, writing, spelling, grammar, and numeracy at Grades 3, 5, and 7, results showed that children identified as having SLC achieved test scores that were above national minimum standards. Further, the difference in Band scores for the Typical and SLC groups narrowed over time for all but one area, writing. Whilst this is an encouraging pattern, suggesting children with SLC have reduced the gap, it is important to note that analyses by Daraganova et al. (2013) comparing Grades 3 and 5 NAPLAN scores for LSAC children with scores achieved by all Australian children tested in 2008 and 2010 showed that, on average, LSAC children achieved higher scores. They concluded that the “LSAC NAPLAN sample cannot be considered as a representative sample of Australian children in a specific year level, even after accounting for attrition” (p. 37). It is also important to note that the study sample of children with SLC was slightly smaller than the original LSAC sample, because parents of children with lower receptive vocabulary scores were less likely to consent to data to be linked to the NAPLAN scores (Daraganova et al., 2013), and were more likely to be excluded from NAPLAN testing. Consequently, the findings reported at the Band level may underestimate the true extent of literacy and numeracy difficulties in children with SLC. Second, we conducted cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses to test for group differences in children’s adjusted NAPLAN scores at Grades 3, 5, and 7. Our results were consistent with the results of previous longitudinal research (Catts et al., 2008, Foster & Miller, 2007; Kim et al., 2015; Nathan et al., 2004b; Skibbe et al., 2008): children with early childhood speech and language disorders achieved lower scores than children with typically developing speech and language on all NAPLAN tests at all assessment points. Unlike some of the previous work, however, our analyses controlled for a wide range of child and family demographic and health factors known to affect literacy and numeracy development to ensure that the observed effects were due to early childhood speech and language status and not to other confounding variables. Furthermore, we applied a conservative definition for the typically developing group (no parent-reported speech and language concern at age 4–5 years and at age 6–7 years) so that it did not include children who had resolved speech and language disorders between preschool (age 4–5) and Grade 1 (age 6–7). Our study differed from a number of previous studies in its use of a broad indicator of speech and language concern (two questions 514 S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 Fig. 1. Adjusted NAPLAN scaled scores over time for typically developing children (dark) and children with SLC (light) from the Kindergarten cohort. completed by parents on the Parent’s Evaluation of Developmental Status (PEDS) home interview), rather than specialised testing, such as the Preschool Language Scale used in Skibbe et al. (2008), literacy assessment tests used in Foster and Miller (2007), or other test batteries (Catts et al., 2008). It may not be all that different, however, from studies that utilise school-based samples such as Nathan et al. (2004b) who studied children referred by speech and language therapists or “identified through a nursery” (p. 175) and Kim et al. (2015) who studied a “student population at risk for struggling to read” (p. 597). As pointed out in the introduction, Australian children attending early childhood programs and school do not have routine access to speech-language pathology services or testing. Thus, it was necessary to rely on the parent-report measure included in LSAC. This choice is justified, however, by the results of a comparative study of parent-reported SLC using the PEDS and clinical diagnosis by speech-language pathologists (SLPs) using the Diagnostic Evaluation of Articulation and Phonology (DEAP) which showed an 86–90% agreement between parents and SLP identification of speech sound disorder (Harrison et al., 2017). Third, we utilised multilevel modelling techniques to produce and analyse trajectories for NAPLAN reading, writing, spelling, grammar, and numeracy across Grades 3, 5, and 7. The results were consistent with previous research, identifying an initial rapid increase in test score growth rates from Grade 3 to 5, and a declining rate of growth from Grade 5 to 7. This pattern of higher followed by lower rates of growth in language and literacy development has been previously reported in other large cohort studies including children with and without language and literacy difficulties (ECLSK: Catts et al., 2008; NICHD ECCRN: Skibbe et al., 2008), as well as in smaller studies of children with speech and language disorder (Law et al., 2008). Comparison of the trajectories for the Typical and SLC groups confirmed our expectation that children in the SLC group would achieve similar rates of growth to their typically developing peers. For each of the NAPLAN tests, graphed results for the two groups S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 515 Table 6 Results of multi-level growth model comparison (typical versus speech and language concern, SLC groups) on the trajectories of NAPLAN outcomes. Model parameter Estimate (95% confidence interval) SE df t Reading (N = 3886) Fixed effects Intercept (grand mean) Linear growth rate Quadratic growth rate Group (Typical vs SLC) Linear growth rate * Group 482.43 (474.89, 489.96) 66.37 (62.29, 70.44) −5.48 (-6.04, −4.92) 16.78 (12.16, 21.41) −1.04 (-3.53, 1.45) 3.85 2.08 0.29 2.36 1.27 3866.38 3227.18 3520.29 3854.31 3189.63 128.46*** 31.93*** −19.16*** 7.12*** −0.82 Writing (N = 3885) Fixed effects Intercept (grand mean) Linear growth rate Quadratic growth rate Group (Typical vs SLC) Linear growth rate * Group 477.30 (470.92, 483.68) 51.20 (46.36, 56.05) −4.30 (-4.95, −3.64) 16.35 (12.44, 20.26) 0.70 (−2.27, 3.66) 3.26 2.47 0.33 2.00 1.51 3814.89 4188.47 4546.54 3795.63 4165.95 146.62*** 20.72*** −12.85*** 8.19*** 0.46 Grammar (N = 3883) Fixed effects Intercept (grand mean) Linear growth rate Quadratic growth rate Group (Typical vs SLC) Linear growth rate * Group 489.43 (481.72, 497.14) 67.84 (63.34, 72.35) −7.21 (-7.90, −6.51) 20.52 (15.79, 25.25) −3.75 (-6.50, −1.00) 3.93 2.30 0.35 2.41 1.40 3971.00 3717.15 4303.99 3959.16 3697.94 124.48*** 29.51*** −20.31*** 8.51*** −2.67 Spelling (N = 3885) Fixed effects Intercept (grand mean) Linear growth rate Quadratic growth rate Group (Typical vs SLC) Linear growth rate * Group 496.14 (488.90, 503.38) 63.96 (60.87, 67.05) −3.66 (-4.06, −3.26) 16.68 (12.23, 21.12) 1.13 (−0.76, 3.01) 3.70 1.58 0.20 2.27 0.96 3909.74 3733.73 3837.10 3897.15 3693.86 134.27*** 40.59*** −18.06*** 7.36*** 1.17 Numeracy (N = 3887) Fixed effects Intercept (grand mean) Linear growth rate Quadratic growth rate Group (Typical vs SLC) Linear growth rate * Group 504.88 (497.91, 511.84) 75.71 (71.94, 79.49) −4.86 (-5.37, −4.34) 12.81 (8.55, 17.08) −.84 (-3.15, 1.46) 3.55 1.93 0.26 2.18 1.18 3871.72 3202.64 3467.62 3858.20 3148.70 142.20*** 39.29*** −18.55*** 5.89*** −0.72 Note. *** p < .001; alpha = .003. Language Group was coded as Typical (1) and Speech and Language Concern, SLC (0). Results have controlled for family SEP, child age, sex, LBOTE, Indigenous status, disability (>6 months), and hearing problems. The effect of child characteristics and demographic variables are not included in the tables for clarity and brevity. Children who were girls, had higher SEP, spoke English as the main language, were non-Indigenous, and had no disability achieved higher overall mean scores for NAPLAN writing, grammar, spelling and numeracy. Higher NAPLAN reading scores were predicted by being a girl, having higher SEP, being non-Indigenous and having no disability. In addition, having no hearing problems was linked to a higher NAPLAN writing grand mean. Girls had a higher growth rate in NAPLAN writing but a lower growth rate in numeracy over time compared to boys. Children who had higher SEP and spoke English as the main language also had a higher numeracy growth rate. Children who were older at the beginning of the study showed lower growth rate in reading and grammar over time. were parallel (Fig. 1), and statistical tests showed no differences in linear growth by group. The findings are similar to growth patterns in reading achievement reported by Catts et al. (2008) who reported non-significant differences in the slopes of the groups across a similar but wider age span (Grades 2, 4, 8 and 10) for children with language impairments and typical language. On the other hand, the results differ somewhat from growth trajectories for reading skills reported by Skibbe et al. (2008) across a younger age span (Pre-K, Grades 1, 2, 5) for children with and without language difficulties. In the Skibbe et al. study, a slightly higher rate of growth was observed for the group with language difficulties, as evidenced by a gradual decrease in the size of the group differences as children progressed through school. A similar decrease was not observed for the present study. Taken together, the findings from these three large-cohort longitudinal studies suggest that questions relating to narrowing the gap for children affected by speech and language disorder remain open for further study. Nonetheless, it is clear that the results of this Australian study provide strong support for the recommendations of Skibbe et al. (2008) and Catts et al. (2008) that children with SLC be identified as early as possible and referred for specialist support in speech, language, literacy, and numeracy. This is a particular concern in Australia, as demonstrated by the present findings that the majority of children with SLC had not accessed speech-language pathology services in early childhood or during the school years. This result, along with the consistent pattern of lower achievement in literacy and numeracy test scores at Grades 3, 5, and 7, provides further evidence that children with speech and language concern need specialist assessment and intervention in early childhood to “boost children’s early skill levels” (Skibbe et al., 2008, p. 484). 4.1. Limitations Despite the strengths of the LSAC design, which included population data linked to NAPLAN, and the robustness of the findings (consistent over two cohorts of more than 4000 children in each cohort), there are limitations that need to be considered. Firstly, the size and scope of the LSAC restricted the use of specialised testing of children’s speech, which meant that SLC was identified via parent report. It is possible that fewer children may have been identified as having a SLC if identification were by clinical testing. However, in this case, the results would likely have resulted in a greater difference between the two groups of children on NAPLAN outcomes. We also note that the effectiveness of parent report has been demonstrated in other studies examining the correspondence between 516 S. McLeod et al. / Early Childhood Research Quarterly 47 (2019) 507–517 parent report and clinical testing for speech and language disorder (e.g., Harrison et al., 2017; McLeod et al., 2013). Secondly, although the LSAC samples were originally identified using nationally representative sampling techniques based on Australian census data, subsequent analyses have shown that LSAC is not nationally representative of NAPLAN test scores. On average, LSAC children achieved higher scores than the wider population of Australian children (Daraganova et al., 2013). Thirdly, whilst the information gathered from parents and teachers at each wave of the LSAC provided data on children’s access to speech-language pathology services, it was not possible to test this as a moderating variable in our analysis of NAPLAN outcomes. Australia does not have a systematic system for identification and provision of support for children with speech and language disorder, as occurs in the US and the UK. Whilst the low levels of access to speech-language pathology services reported by parents and teachers in the present study were consistent with other Australian research studies (McAllister, McCormack, McLeod, & Harrison, 2011; McLeod et al., 2013; Ruggero, McCabe, Ballard, & Munro, 2012), these reports were not sufficiently robust to be included as a predictor of child outcomes. 4.2. Conclusion Linked data to national test scores for reading, writing, spelling, grammar, and numeracy were examined cross-sectionally and longitudinally in a two-cohort population sample of 8395 children at Grade 3 and 4332 children at Grades 3, 5, and 7. Children identified with SLC in early childhood scored significantly lower than typically developing children on NAPLAN tests of literacy and numeracy for Grades 3, 5, and 7. Although test results for children in the SLC group improved at the same rate of growth as in the Typical group, children whose parents were concerned about their speech and language skills in early childhood did not catch up to the levels of literacy and numeracy achieved by their typically developing peers. Most of the children with SLC had not accessed speech-language pathology services. Early identification and access to specialist services are needed to boost outcomes in literacy and numeracy skills in early childhood and throughout school. 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