Technology | Payments, Processors & IT Services
June 26, 2025
Adam Frisch
212-812-2933
Adam.Frisch@evercoreisi.com
Connor O'Brien
212-653-9009
connor.obrien@evercoreisi.com
Deniz Gasimli
212-446-9447
Deniz.Gasimli@evercoreISI.com
Kevin Kennedy
212-812-2932
Kevin.Kennedy@evercoreisi.com
Stablecoin 101: The (not so) calm before the storm (Webinar today at 10 AM ET)
What’s in the report: This stablecoin primer establishes a foundational framework for how we see this dynamic and fast
moving space evolving, and the vast opportunities that are viable today and potentially in the future. It addresses the following:
o What are stablecoins/the blockchain and why do they matter?
o What are the commercial/consumer use cases? How real are those use cases? Who are the potential winners and
losers in each scenario?
o What are the potential bull- and bear-case impacts on the networks, banks, merchant acquirers, digital wallets and
merchants? More specifically, what are the likely impacts to each provider in our coverage universe?
o What are the latest regulatory updates, and what else will shape the long-term adoption drivers and key challenges?
•
Our macro view of the stablecoin opportunity: Stablecoins have emerged as the leading contender to bring the power of
blockchain settlement to global financial infrastructure by addressing the crypto ecosystem’s biggest issue – inconsistent
store of value. To that end, the “stablecoin opportunity” is not as much about the tokens themselves, but rather the manner
in which blockchain and traditional financial infrastructure can coexist to drive new and exciting product experiences and
monetization streams for the fintech landscape. The opportunity today remains nascent, region dependent, and varies
significantly by use case, but the reality is that stablecoins are here to stay, growing quickly, and all players – both old and
new – are adapting to this paradigm shift. This report addresses several of the near-term opportunities amongst the vast
array of viable applications for stablecoins and identifies those that aren’t as attractive or may require a longer adoption tail.
•
Primary use cases: We framed stablecoin opportunities and adoption scenarios within two markets – commercial and
consumer – and our initial focus is on 6 key potential use cases:
o Commercial/B2B: Cross-border payments, employee payouts, and corporate treasury can all be transformed with
stablecoin rails as current services offered by banks are slow and costly. Moreover, stablecoins can provide fast and
cheap access to a dollarized currency in emerging markets with local currency volatility and high-inflation, making the
frictions around on- and off-ramping of fiat into stablecoins and back worth it.
o Consumer: We think stablecoins have a high adoption potential for remittance and store-of-value use cases as
consumers across the world are looking for ways to transfer money cheaply and to protect their funds from inflation and
currency depreciation. On the other hand, the value proposition in the C2B domestic payments space is currently not
strong enough to entice consumers to switch from debit/credit methods that provide rewards and fraud protections.
•
Impact on our coverage:
o Networks: Card networks are at a strategic inflection point - stablecoins could either expand their reach as hybrid digital
payment rails or slightly erode debit volumes (which we view as unlikely) and growing presence in Commercial/B2B.
Both V/MA have made significant strides and continued execution is required to maintain an advantaged position.
o Processors: We view stablecoin adoption as a broadly neutral/positive trend for merchant acquirers. Enabling a new
payment method is nothing new for merchant acquirers (e.g., BNPL) and stablecoins provide a natural extension of
traditional merchant acquirer services. Digital-native acquirers who begin offering crypto services in the near term (e.g.,
Stripe) can potentially capture upside, but it remains to be seen if these transactions replace existing debit/credit for a
net wash. Pricing remains an important but outstanding issue that will need to be sorted.
o Digital wallets: Stablecoins should provide a long-term growth engine for digital wallets. Many digital wallets have
embraced crypto, proactively investing in stablecoin infrastructure and building a strong UI/UX for crypto. Proliferated
stablecoin adoption should serve as a boon for digital wallet usage and an acceleration of the bank-the-base strategy.
•
Impact on treasuries: A recent report from Ark noted that large foreign buyers of US treasuries have diminished over the
last decade plus (e.g., China, Japan, and Canada held a combined 23% of total US debt in 2011 vs. 6.1% in 2024), reducing
demand for US treasuries and modestly inflating yields. By contrast, stablecoin issuers are a significant holder of US
treasuries (e.g., Tether and Circle held a combined $180BN of US treasuries as of 1Q25) and are poised to become even
larger buyers as stablecoins become more widely adopted, and new federal regulations require 1:1 backing of stablecoins
with high-quality liquid assets like USD or short-term treasury bulls. Greater demand for treasuries from stablecoin issuers
provides incremental support for US borrowing by driving yields down and enhancing treasury market liquidity. Policymakers
are increasingly prioritizing stablecoin adoption as a strategic lever to bolster demand for US Treasuries and reinforce the
dollar’s role as the world’s dominant reserve currency.
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•
Please see the analyst certification and important disclosures on page 48 of this report. Evercore ISI and affiliates do and seek
to do business with companies covered in its research reports. Investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of interest that could
is should
provided
forthis
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exclusive
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of hh7645532@gmail.com.
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consider
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in making their investment decision.
© 2025. Evercore Group L.L.C. All rights reserved.
June 26, 2025
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Stablecoin 101: The (not so) calm before the storm
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How stablecoins are influencing the global finance ecosystem
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June 26, 2025
Table of contents & key takeaways
Table of contents
Section
Page #
Key takeaways
•
3
Recent developments and
implications for our
coverage
4
Regulatory updates, drivers
of adoption, and key
challenges
We framed stablecoin opportunities and adoption scenarios within the two segments – commercial and consumer:
o Commercial: Cross-border payments, employee payouts, and corporate treasury can all be transformed with stablecoin
offerings as current services offered by banks are slow and costly. Moreover, stablecoins can provide fast and cheap access
to a dollarized currency in emerging markets with local currency volatility and high-inflation, making the frictions around onand off-ramping of fiat into stablecoins and back worth it.
o Consumer: We think stablecoins have a high adoption potential for remittance and store-of-value use cases as consumers
globally are looking for ways to transfer money cheaply and to protect their funds from inflation and currency depreciation.
On the other hand, the value proposition in the C2B domestic payments space is currently not strong enough to entice
consumers to switch from debit/credit methods that provide rewards and fraud protections.
•
Outcomes of greater stablecoin adoption are mixed among the fintech ecosystem, with merchants and digital wallets emerging as
the clearest beneficiaries, while banks and B2B and consumer cross-border payment providers face the greatest risks.
On balance, stablecoins represent both an opportunity and threat to the networks and merchant acquirers, likely providing a mix
of new revenue streams while also potentially challenging their positions as transaction intermediaries in some scenarios.
Relative exposure for the networks is largely limited to select new flows and consumer debit, of which only a very small portion of
debit is at risk. If there is any transition from consumer debit to stablecoin, we believe it will be slow and over a longer horizon.
6:
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Use cases and likelihood of
adoption
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Stablecoin definition and
value chain
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Stablecoins have emerged as the leading contender to bring the power of blockchain settlement to global financial infrastructure
by addressing the crypto ecosystem’s biggest issue – inconsistent store of value.
To that end, the “stablecoin opportunity” is not as much about the tokens themselves, but rather the manner in which blockchain
and traditional financial infrastructure can coexist to drive new and exciting product experiences and monetization streams for
the fintech landscape. The opportunity today remains nascent, region dependent, and varies significantly by use case, but the
reality is that stablecoins are here to stay, growing quickly, and all players – both old and new – are adapting to this paradigm
shift.
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The GENIUS Act passing the Senate marks the start of much needed legislation (a final law is expected later this summer/early
fall) for broader stablecoin enablement, establishing clear supervisory guidelines. However, a market framework still needs to be
created to establish consumer protections and systemic safeguards before we see mainstream stablecoin adoption.
Stablecoins are rapidly accelerating the pace of crypto adoption by evolving practical use cases and growing the acceptance
footprint, but broader consumer trust, volatility, and scalability concerns remain key challenges to broader stablecoin usage.
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This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
Source: Evercore ISI analysis
June 26, 2025
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1) Stablecoin definition and value chain
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Deep dives on blockchain dynamics vs. TradFi, types of stablecoins, and supply trends
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June 26, 2025
So, what is a stablecoin?
While the world of crypto has been met with its fair share of skepticism, stablecoins have emerged as the key
contender to bring blockchain settlement technology into the global financial infrastructure by addressing
the crypto ecosystem’s primary pain point – inconsistent store of value.
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A stablecoin is a form of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a stable value
that is derived from its pegging mechanism (typically $1). Stablecoins
originated as the on-and-off-ramp for fiat-to-crypto and crypto-to-crypto
transactions on cryptocurrency exchanges, aiming to address the price
volatility associated with popular tokens like Bitcoin and Ethereum. By
providing a consistent and predictable store of value, stablecoins have
evolved into a key bridge between traditional finance (TradFi) and the world
of blockchain, crypto, and Web3.
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It is hard to overstate stablecoins’ disruptive potential for the fintech
ecosystem and players in and around our coverage universe. More
importantly, this is happening TODAY – it is not a “what if?” The following
slides will provide an overview of fundamentals and what it means for our
coverage.
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Source: Evercore ISI analysis
June 26, 2025
What are the different types of stablecoins and their traits?
There are three main types of stablecoins – fiat-backed, crypto-backed, and algorithmic stablecoins. The proliferation of USDC
(Circle) and USDT (Tether) have made fiat-backed stablecoins the clear market leader and focus of growth, while the dramatic
collapse of Terra Luna (LUNA) in May 2022 has upended broad-based use of algorithmic stablecoins across the ecosystem.
Crypto-backed
Algorithmic
Description
A stablecoin that derives its value from fiat
currency. Currently USD accounts for
99.8% of the current global supply
A stablecoin that derives value from holding
other cryptocurrencies
A stablecoin that uses smart contracts to adjust
market prices relative to a base value
Backed by
Fiat currency or equivalent reserves
Other cryptocurrencies
Code, adjusting supply and demand, to affect
price
Stablecoin value is
maintained through
Tokens are redeemed 1:1 with fiat or equivalent
collateral when minted or burnt
Tokens are overcollateralized with volatile crypto
(BTC, ETH) and managed by smart contracts
An algorithm automatically adjusts token supply
to maintain stable pricing
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User deposits $150 worth of ETH → Mints
$100 of DAI (crypto-backed stablecoin)
If the collateral value drops too much, it’s
liquidated to maintain solvency
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Low-medium (depending on fiat)
Notable tokens /
issuers
USDC (Circle)
USDT (Tether)
PYUSD (PayPal / Paxos)
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Risk level
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Very high
•
If price < $1 → Protocol reduces supply
(buy/burn coins)
If price > $1 → Protocol increases supply
(mint more coins)
Moderate
Low
Medium-High (depends on underlying)
High
DAI (MakerDAO)2
USDD (TronDAO)
AMPL (Ampleforth)
UST (Terra *Failed)
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Adoption level
•
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User deposits $1 → Issuer mints 1 stablecoin
User returns 1 stablecoin → Issuer burns it
and returns $1
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How it works
•
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Fiat-backed (incl CBDC's1)
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1. Central Bank Digital Currencies (“CBDCs) are stablecoins issued and controlled by central bank authorities and backed by the central bank reserves
2. A DAO or “Decentralized Autonomous Organization” is a blockchain-native organization that governs how stablecoins work including collateral type, risk parameters, upgrades and interest rates
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Sources: Evercore ISI analysis, Artemis Analytics, PayPal press releases, Circle S-1
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June 26, 2025
How does the stablecoin value chain work?
Role in the value chain
Issuing Layer
Issuer
Entity in charge of minting & redeeming stablecoins
Collateral
Maintains the peg / value of issued stablecoins
Stablecoin
Stablecoin token that is issued to the end user
L1 blockchains
Primary chain for tokenization & transaction settlement
L2+ blockchains
Other layers increase the speed & throughput of layer 1 blockchains
Exchange
Enable on-ramps and off-ramps for fiat & other crypto
Wallet
Enable custody and transfers of custody between parties
Fintech
Integrate stablecoin payments infrastructure (e.g., PayPal, Cash App)
DeFi Protocol
Smart contracts enabling blockchain-native financial services – lending,
payments, swaps, yield, etc.
Payments
Business-to-business payments, payroll, payouts, C2B
Trading
Fiat-to-crypto settlement
Cross-border
P2P & B2B cross-border payments
Treasury
Intercontinental treasury & FX management
Stablecoin Issuer
Collateral Management
Layer 1 blockchains
Layer 2+ blockchains
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Stablecoin
Exchange
Wallet
Fintech
DeFi
Protocol
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Distribution Partners
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End Users & Use Cases
Payment
Trading
Cross
Border
Treasury
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End Users & Use
Cases
Distribution Layer
Value-chain layer
Network
Layer
Stablecoins are tokenized onto blockchains by their issuer, after which they are accessed by various distribution partners to
ultimately reach the end user – be it a business, consumer, institution, etc.
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Source: Evercore ISI analysis
June 26, 2025
What is a stablecoin issuer and what are their responsibilities?
Stablecoin issuers control the supply of global stablecoin tokens across blockchain networks and have 3
principal responsibilities: minting, burning and pegging.
Primary stablecoin issuer responsibilities
Steps in the Flow
Burning
A user deposits fiat with an
issuer
A user sends a stablecoin to
an issuer
2
The issuer verifies the user &
fiat value and accepts the
deposit
The issuer verifies the token
value & ownership
3
The issuer creates &
distributes the new stablecoin
token
The issuer permanently
removes the stablecoin
token from the blockchain
4
The issuer moves the fiat to a
reserve account to earn
interest
The issuer transfers the fiat
value back to the user
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Burning: Redeeming stablecoins for users in exchange for the
collateral value. User sends stablecoin to an issuer that then
permanently removes the stablecoin token from the blockchain,
and the fiat is returned back to the user.
Pegging: Ensuring stablecoin tokens maintain a 1:1 redemption
value relative to the underlying collateral.
Minting
:2
Minting: Creating stablecoin tokens when users deposit fiat &
distributing them across blockchains. Users deposit fiat with an
issuer, the issuer creates & distributes a new stablecoin token,
and the fiat is moved to a reserve account to earn interest.
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Note on interest income for holders: While interest income has historically been a key incentive for issuers to attract and retain holders, a recent
amendment to the GENIUS Act does not outright ban the practice but excludes interest-bearing stablecoins from the protections of the bill. This leaves
them open to be treated as securities rather than payment methods, which could involve more regulatory hurdles and consumer protections relative to
GENIUS-compliant stablecoins. Consumers can still make money on their coins today via "rewards," but these programs are potentially at-risk if the final
piece of legislation upholds these restrictions.
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Source: Artemis Analytics, Cointelegraph, Circle S-1, Market Experts Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
The three primary GTM models for stablecoin issuers
We expect the flurry of issuing news to continue, with various players in the ecosystem announcing initiatives to keep up with investor
expectations. The analogy to legacy payments is merchant processing, where some companies are full-stack and others only perform
specific functions (e.g., Payfacs).
Self-issued
Partner-based
Build & maintain the technical, legal, & financial
Description infrastructure for the burning, minting & pegging of
stablecoin tokens.
Hybrid
Start off as partner-based issuers and gradually insource
capabilities & responsibilities (e.g. wallets, KYC, reserve
management) over time.
Operator
examples
Crypto-native: Original stablecoin issuers native to
crypto/blockchain. Currently dominated by Tether & Circle
that hold 64% (USDT) and 24% (USDC) share of global
supply, respectively.
Private Banks: JP Morgan is releasing a tokenized deposit
product while a consortium of US banks are evaluating an
interoperable bank-issued stablecoin.
Central Banks: Central banks around the world are
exploring & testing Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs)
to provide state-backed tokenized money.
Merchants: Merchants can integrate directly with selfissued stablecoin issuers to offer stablecoin-based payment
methods to reduce transaction costs & establish smart
contract-based loyalty programs.
Platforms: Platforms like Shopify have integrated USDC
(Circle) as an alternative payment method for Shopify
merchants.
Fintechs: PayPal launched PayPalUSD (PYUSD) in August
2023 in partnership with Paxos as a way for users to
complete P2P, eCommerce & crypto trading transactions.
The hybrid issuer model is a variation of the partner-based
model, but reflects different levels of integration, strategic
intent and control. In this model, operators start as partnerbased issuers but gradually move different responsibilities
& capabilities in-house over time. While partner models
can exist on a spectrum of simple integrations to cobranding, a partnership transitions to a “hybrid” model
when it assumes some of the key responsibilities from the
issuer, like reserve management, custom user
infrastructure (wallets, KYC), and compliance integrations.
Pros (+)
Supply control, maximum yield, self-determination
Speed to market, lower risk, wider distribution
Balances speed & control, comparative advantages
Cons (-)
High maintenance costs, full compliance burden
Revenue sharing, bilateral decisioning, partner risk
Complex product roadmap, higher regulatory risk
Our view
Self-issuance is the most prevalent GTM strategy among
issuers as illustrated by USDT and USDC’s scale, and we see
this model retaining a leadership position in the near-term
as evidenced by private banks exploring their own issuance
strategies for tokenized deposits, payment capabilities and
on-chain finance. CBDCs are in a limbo state in most
developed markets as regulators weigh the implications of
a government-backed competitor.
Large enterprise merchants and platforms are currently
exploring partnerships to offer stablecoins as an alternative
payment method for their consumer / user commerce
experiences. We expect this model to dominate the next
wave of issuing activity, especially among Big Tech as the
GENIUS Act prohibits self-issuance among these players.
Over time, we expect partners to gradually move toward
hybrid models as the ecosystem familiarizes itself with the
technical & legal frameworks of crypto and blockchain.
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Partner with self-issued stablecoin players to integrate
branded /unbranded tokens onto their commerce
platforms and product ecosystems.
The hybrid go-to-market model is incredibly nascent today
with only a few commercialized examples (e.g. Avit Vantage Bank & Custodia Bank). That said, we would expect
this model to gain popularity over time as the industry
matures, especially from platforms and traditional fintech
operators, as partners seek more control and richer
economics with their stablecoin & crypto strategies. To that
end, we see PayPal/PYUSD as a potential earlier
transitioner.
Source: Artemis Analytics, Cointelegraph, Circle S-1, Market Experts Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Stablecoin supply is growing rapidly and USDT1 & USDC1 are clear leaders
Stablecoin adoption has seen its challenges over the past 5 years, but anticipation of a new regulatory framework in the US,
notable M&A, and renewed investor confidence via a steady IPO pipeline has made 2025 a landmark year for supply resurgence.
Commentary
Global stablecoin market supply ($BN)
USDT
USDC
Other
~$250BN in May 2025
$300
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$250
Global stablecoin market supply reached just under $250BN in May 2025,
and has increased at a 32% CAGR since 2021. Yet, this growth has not
come without challenges, and as we look back over the past five years, we
see 3 distinct turns in the cycle:
1. COVID-fueled crypto euphoria: The initial surge was driven by the
explosive rise in crypto activity during the pandemic-era low-rate
environment. Stablecoins, serving as the primary fiat-to-crypto
gateway, grew in lockstep with soaring trading volumes and crypto
adoption.
2. Macro uncertainty & crypto washout: In 2022, rising interest rates
and macroeconomic headwinds triggered a shift in sentiment. The
collapse of high-profile players such as FTX, Terra/LUNA, and Celsius
sparked a major drawdown in transaction volumes and stablecoin
circulation — especially in North America, where regulatory
uncertainty cast a long shadow over the industry.
3. Policy reset & market reintegration: More recently, the new U.S.
administration has prioritized digital assets, bringing renewed
confidence to both investors and operators. The return of
institutional interest is underscored by notable IPOs (Circle and
eToro) and M&A activity including Stripe’s acquisition of Bridge and
Privy. Stablecoins are increasingly seen not just as crypto-native tools
but as core components of modern financial infrastructure.
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$200
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Apr-25
Jan-25
Oct-24
Jul-24
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1. USDT & USDC are the USD denominated stablecoins issued by Tether & Circle, respectively
Source: Evercore ISI analysis, Artemis Analytics
Apr-24
Jan-24
Oct-23
IL Oct-22
S
6Jan-23
86
40
Apr-23
a0
Jul-22
Apr-22
Jan-22
Oct-21
Jul-21
Apr-21
Jan-21
Oct-20
Jul-20
Apr-20
Jan-20
$0
Jul-23 83
23
13
$50
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June 26, 2025
Stablecoin is already "big" but still has plenty of room to grow
Stablecoins address a massive market opportunity yet account for less than 1% of that volume when we net out trading
applications over the past decade. We expect volumes to grow as more payment-focused use cases emerge and displace less
efficient processes around the broader commercial and consumer ecosystems.
Total Payments TAM vs Adjusted Stablecoin Transaction Volume ($TN)
+$240TN TAM
~1%
share1
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$145
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Note: Adjusted to
remove txn volume
for centralized &
decentralized
exchanges that are
less relevant for
the payments TAM
$18
$3
P2P, B2C, G2C
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Cash, A2A, & Domestic Global Card Network
Card Schemes
Volume
Non-exchange
Adjusted Stablecoin
Txn Volume
S
B2B Flows (AR / AP,
Money Movement,
Virtual Cards)
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1. 2024 Adjusted non-exchange transaction volume from Visa On-chain Analytics – transaction volume adjusted to remove distortions from intra-exchange rebalancing, bots, internal transactions,
and high-frequency traders
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Source: Evercore ISI analysis, Visa On-chain Analytics, Visa 2025 Investor Day
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Stablecoin issuers’ holdings of US treasuries & growing strategic importance
Stablecoin issuers are a significant holder of US treasuries and are poised to become even larger buyers as stablecoins begin to
be more widely adopted. Greater demand for treasuries from stablecoin issuers provides incremental support for US borrowing
by driving yields down and enhancing treasury market liquidity, supporting the dollar’s position as the global reserve currency.
Key US treasury market and policy implications of greater
stablecoin adoption
Volume of US Treasury bills held by Tether and Circle ($BN)
Tether
Implication
Circle
Increased US
treasury
demand and
lower yields
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$39
$57
$63
4
Source of
additional
support for
the USD
• The overwhelming majority of stablecoins are USDbacked (99.8%), and policymakers see them as a way to
support the dollar’s position as the global reserve
currency, with treasuries serving as the collateral
foundation.
1
• We view stablecoins as broadly beneficial for treasury
markets, but the market is now subject to greater
sensitivity to stablecoin driven flows. Sudden outflows
or a redemption panic could pressure prices.
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$81
$74
$102 $94
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$56
3
Treasury
market’s
sensitivity to
stablecoin
demand
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$120
$53
• If stablecoins continue to grow they will create greater
demand for short-term treasuries, driving more volume
to the short-end of the curve.
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$40
$45
Shortened
yield curve
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$29
$47
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$39
$56
$25
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$51
$27
$25
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1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25
• Stablecoin issuers are injecting demand into the shortterm treasury market by buying US treasuries to provide
asset-backing for stablecoins, which over time and at
scale, could modestly reduce government borrowing
costs by offsetting weaker sovereign demand.
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$32
$32
$33
$44
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$36
Description
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1Q22-1Q25
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Source: Tether, Circle, Treasury.gov, Market experts, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Blockchains – the ‘DeFi’ solution to global settlement networks
What is a blockchain? A blockchain is a decentralized, distributed ledger consisting of
batches of cryptographically linked “blocks” that contain validated transactions or data
entries. Blockchains are the transmission networks for the authorization & settlement of
stablecoin transactions. While they play similar roles to comparable TradFi networks, like
the card networks, ACH, & FedNow - their construct is very different.
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Blockchains operate in layers, where each layer controls discrete pieces of the value chain. In general, most blockchains
are built with five layers organized as such:
─ Base layer (layer 0): The foundational infrastructure that a blockchain is built onto
─ Layer 1 blockchains: The data layer and primary blockchain for transaction processing & settlement
─ Layer 2 blockchains: Connects scaling solutions and communication across the network
─ Layer 3 blockchains: Where the consensus protocols are stored and conducted
─ Layer 4 blockchains: The application layer where use cases can be connected to the blockchain
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Today there are currently more than 1,000 individual blockchains, and each chain differentiates itself through its
consensus mechanism, permission, data structure, smart-contract capability, governance, use case, and performance
profile.
─ Consensus mechanism: The system / protocol through which on-chain transactions are validated
─ Permission: Defines who can access, validate and update the blockchain (public, private, hybrid)
─ Data structure: The format with which the blockchain data is organized, linked and stored
─ Smart-contract capability: The ability to deploy self-executing code on-chain to automate logic and transactions
─ Governance: The manner by which network rules and protocol upgrades are designed, proposed, and implemented
─ Use case: The core problem or domain the blockchain is designed to address – e.g. payments, identity, DeFi
─ Performance profile: The blockchain’s speed, scalability, throughput and other characteristics under normal conditions
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Source: Evercore ISI analysis, Hedra, SecuX, Market Experts
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June 26, 2025
What are settlement networks and how do blockchains compare?
What is a settlement network?
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Settlement networks are core pieces of global financial infrastructure. In practice, a settlement network is a system that: 1) Confirms that two parties have
agreed to a transaction, 2) Transfers the value, or record of value, between the two parties, and 3) Finalizes the transaction by updating balances across all
participating entities. Settlement networks are comprised of four different layers: the communication layer, the settlement ledger, intermediaries, and a user
access interface. A key pillar of the stablecoin thesis is that global settlement infrastructure (e.g., SWIFT network) is overdue for a major upgrade and that
stablecoins are the most viable option for market participants to leverage the power of blockchain to bring settlement into the age of the open internet.
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Features:
Availability: 24/7/365
Settlement: Seconds to minutes depending on chains
Transparency: Public or permissioned ledgers
Validation method: Network consensus (Proof of Stake, Proof of Work)
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Features:
Availability: Limited by business hours and holidays
Settlement: Hours to days
Transparency: Private ledgers unavailable to the end user
Validation method: Centralized verification by banks / clearinghouses
Network Layers:
Communication: Blockchain network (e.g., Ethereum, Solana)
Settlement Ledger: Distributed ledger
Intermediaries: Network validators (e.g., wallet)
User access / interface: Wallets (custodial or non-custodial)
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Network Layers:
Communication: SWIFT, FedWire Message Format
Settlement Ledger: Central Bank Real Time Gross Settlement (FedWire)
Intermediaries: Correspondent banks, clearinghouses
User access / interface: Bank accounts, cards
Blockchain “DeFi” Settlement
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Traditional Finance “TradFi” Settlement
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June 26, 2025
How are transactions authorized & settled over blockchain?
Blockchains differ from traditional settlement networks in that the entire process happens over the internet,
and the blockchain itself validates the transaction instead of a centralized validator like a central bank.
Steps in the Flow
The Blockchain transaction flow visualized
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1
1.
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3.
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2.
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6.
A user requests a transaction: Once a user requests
or initiates a transaction, every computer (or node)
in the blockchain network can see the request
The network receives & validates the transaction:
Each node in the network then validates the
transaction.
The transaction is verified by the network: Once all
of the nodes in the network have verified the
transactions, a block is added to the distributed
ledger with that transaction data
A “block” is created: the transaction becomes
visible as a block of data on the ledger, containing all
the transaction information (sender, receiver,
amount, etc).
The block is added to the blockchain: The block is
then permanently added to the blockchain, and all
existing blocks in the network update to include the
new information.
The transaction is completed: The fund transfer is
complete, and the existing blockchain network has
been permanently updated with the new block of
data.
Source: Superscript, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
The beauty of blockchain lies in its consolidated authorization & settlement
While TradFi and stablecoin transactions may appear similar on the surface, the key difference lies in how authorization and settlement are handled.
Blockchain consolidates both layers, enabling direct peer-to-peer transfers via wallets — unlike the multi-party, multi-step correspondent banking model.
That said, these advantages are not necessarily applicable across all use cases in the space, but there is more than enough potential where they are.
Transaction authorization & settlement network
2
3
Authorization / messaging layer (SWIFT)
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USD
USD
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7) The international correspondent banks
transfer the funds to the local correspondent
bank
8) The local correspondent bank transfers the
funds to the receiver’s local bank
9) The receiver can access the funds
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Ethereum Blockchain
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3) Once the wallet is funded the user initiates the transaction
by inputting the recipient wallet address & value
4) The transaction is then sent to the relevant blockchain, in
this case Ethereum, where it is validated by the network
5) Once validated, the transaction is approved, and the
blockchain updates to incorporate the new transaction
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1) The sender will begin the process by
linking their bank account to a crypto wallet
via ACH, debit card, or other local method
2) The sender will then deposit fiat funds in
exchange for stablecoin tokens, in this case
USDC, which is known as “on-ramping”
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Blockchain
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Settlement layer (ACH, wire, local rail)
4) The transaction information (account, sender, sufficient
funds) is sent to each bank using SWIFT messaging
5) The sent funds are settled between banks as transaction
information is validated along each correspondent bank
6) The currency is converted during the international
correspondent bank transfer process
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1) The user initiate the transaction with
their local bank
2) The local bank sends the funds to the
local correspondent bank
3) The correspondent bank sends funds
to the international correspondent bank
Receiving account (off-ramping)
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Correspondent Banking
Sending account (on-ramping)
6) The recipient wallet will receive the
requested balance in USDC stablecoin tokens
7) The receiver can then convert the stablecoin
token to their own local fiat currency and then
deposit the funds into their local bank account
using relevant domestic rails. This is known as
“off-ramping.”
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Source: Fipto, Activant Capital, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
The crypto ecosystem at a glance – focus on payments
Crypto
use-cases
Mainstream consumer and enterprise adoption of crypto-based payments is one of the primary avenues for
the blockchain to prove a durable use case and advance from the perception of speculatory consumer assets.
Digital identity
Digital wallet
Asset
tokenization
Clearance &
settlement
Trading
Fiat-stablecoin conversion
Component
Gateway
Payments
Value-added services
Description
Payment processing
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Example providers (not exhaustive)
Program / service that stores and allows consumers to access their owned cryptocurrencies. Each
wallet contains a blockchain address to send and receive crypto from.
Fiat-stablecoin
conversion
Stablecoins (e.g., USDC) are a type of cryptocurrency where the value is typically pegged to a fiat
currency (e.g., USD). Stablecoins provide a more reliable store of value for merchants to accept crypto
payments, and fiat currency can be converted to stablecoins via most crypto exchanges.
Gateway
Platforms facilitating cryptocurrency acceptance for merchants, authenticating and transmitting
consumer payment data and calculating the amount of crypto needed to completed the transaction.
Value-added
services
Value-added services (e.g., fraud mitigation, tokenization, and encryption) to protect merchants and
consumers from fraud.
Payments
processing
Following payment confirmation, the transaction is broadcast and verified by the blockchain network
participants, securing the transaction. Crypto payment processors confirm the transaction details and
confirm funds availability to the merchant/receiver of funds. Crypto processors often allow the
merchant to hold the transaction in crypto or exchange for fiat currency.
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Digital wallet
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Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
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Lending
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June 26, 2025
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2) Use cases and likelihood of adoption
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Overview of stablecoin use cases and our view of the adoption potential and winners/losers in the
financial ecosystem
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June 26, 2025
Where the rubber is hitting the road (and where it might not)
Over the past few months, the hype around stablecoins has reached a fever pitch. Viable use cases for stablecoins for business and consumer payments
will evolve over time, but in the near-term, below are the initiatives that are currently getting the most attention.
Adoption
potential*
Potential
Winners
Potential
Losers
Stablecoin facilitates movement of funds between geographies in a cheaper and
Cross-border
faster way by surpassing one or more correspondent banks and fees that they
payments
charge
High
B2B payment providers if they
adopt this early on (e.g.,
Stripe+Bridge deal)
Banks that charge
correspondent banking fees
for wire transfers
Employee
payouts
Sending dollarized payments to part-time or freelance employees (gig economy
workers) across the globe in a faster and more efficient manner
High
Fintechs that can facilitate
global payouts (e.g., Bridge
and Paxos)
Payout automation fintechs
that fail to innovate
Corporate
treasury
Enables access to dollar-pegged currencies for international businesses outside of
the US that need US$ to transact and trade with partners
Medium
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Description
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Commercial
Use case
Low
Crypto wallets (e.g., Coinbase)
and acquirers that adopt
stablecoin rails
(Networks in some cases)
Banks via lower credit and
debit volumes
(Networks in some cases)
High
B2C payment providers if they
adopt this early on (e.g., Bitso)
Banks that charge
correspondent banking fees
for wire transfers and
remittances networks like WU
High
Dollar stablecoin wallets (e.g.,
MiniPay) and networks that
facilitate on- and off-ramps
Banks in EM that collect US$
deposits
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Helps individuals send money to other countries in a cheaper and faster manner and
circumvents one or more correspondent banks or money transfer services (e.g.,
Western Union) and fees that they charge
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Remittances
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Allows consumers to pay in stablecoins online or in-person, though this requires
C2B domestic participants to convert funds to stablecoins and back, increasing friction. We think
payments
there are specific use cases where the networks are winners, losers, and net neutral –
but overall, we don't see stablecoin as a material threat to growth.
Fintechs that offer stablecoinBanks that charge fees for
based access to US$ (e.g.,
corporate treasury ops in EM
Yellow Card)
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Provides inflation-resistant, dollar-denominated checking accounts in high-inflation
Store of value
EM economies with currency volatility, helping preserve purchasing power, though
in inflationary
adoption may be pressured by competition from the local banking system (e.g.,
economies
higher deposit rates on US$ deposits)
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*over a 1-5 year time horizon
Source: Market experts, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Commercial use cases – stronger relative value prop and high adoption potential
We believe the future of stablecoin adoption is more viable in size within commercial payments, such as cross-border transactions, employee payouts, and
corporate treasury, as current traditional bank wire transfers incur sizeable fees and take days to settle. Stablecoins offer a cheaper and faster alternative
(plus access to a dollarized currency in emerging markets), which makes the on- and off-ramping of funds to stablecoins and back worth the effort and cost.
Examples
Operations
Customer Behavior
Cross-border payments – SMBs and corporations
use trade financing services from banks to send
and receive funds, and stablecoin infrastructure
can make these flows cheaper and faster by
eliminating correspondent banking fees.
•
Using stablecoins would require funds in fiat to be
converted into stablecoins via an on-ramp service
provided by crypto wallets (e.g., Coinbase) or
payment providers (e.g., Bridge) for a negligible
fee.
•
Employee payouts – companies send funds to gig
and freelance workers, and stablecoins can ensure
a fast and efficient payout process especially in
emerging markets with high inflation and currency
volatility.
•
The funds would then need to be routed to the
recipient(s) crypto account via the underlying
stablecoin network (e.g., Solana or Polygon),
incurring a negligible gas fee. Gas fees can
increase depending on congestion over a given
network at a given time.
These use cases require businesses and recipients
to convert their funds into stablecoins and back
into fiat (if they choose to), which could be a
hassle worth the effort. The current international
transfer fees can be significant as they can include
outgoing fees, incoming fees, intermediary
(correspondent) bank fees, currency conversion
fees, etc.
•
Stablecoins can dramatically minimize these fees
to $1 or less per transaction, which we believe
would be particularly attractive for SMBs vs
corporations, as the relative cost of traditional
transfers (in bps terms) for bigger corporations
becomes negligible the larger the amount of funds
they send.
•
Moreover, traditional wire transfers take days to
settle, while stablecoin transactions can settle in
seconds or minutes, though converting from and
to fiat can take additional 1-2 days.
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The recipient could then choose to off-ramp the
funds by converting them into fiat and sending
them to their bank account via a local transfer
method, which can incur additional fees – or keep
the funds in stablecoins.
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Corporate treasury – international businesses
need access to funds to trade and transact with
partners, and stablecoins can facilitate access to
dollarized funds.
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The on- and off-ramp service providers would have
to provide fraud protection, authorization, and
settlement solutions which could result in
additional fees.
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Source: Market experts, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Consumer use cases – reports of the networks' death is greatly exaggerated
The announcement of Coinbase Payments offering a stablecoin rail for consumer payments generated a lot of buzz, but we think the adoption of
stablecoins for domestic payments will take a while as the value prop is not strong enough yet, and speaking from experience, consumers require a lot of
incentives to switch their habits. We think the adoption potential is much higher for remittance and store of value purposes.
Examples
After the infrastructure is set up, based on our
previous operating experience, even with
meaningful rewards and improved convenience/
UX, customers are slow to adopt new methods,
and stablecoins provide neither at the moment.
We get why merchants want it – but they typically
don't innovate well in the payments space.
•
Compared to debit and credit card transactions,
stablecoins (as a stand-alone) lack ubiquitous
acceptance, rewards, and chargebacks and
dispute protections for consumers. That said,
most/all of these services can be built around the
stablecoin rail (e.g., Coinbase Payments claims to
have replicated this for stablecoin txns).
•
The adoption potential is much more meaningful
for remittance and store of value purposes,
especially given the emergence of stablecoinbacked cards that remove the off-ramping friction.
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For domestic C2B payments, paying via stablecoins
would require merchants using an acquirer that
offers stablecoins as one of the payment options,
with the acquirer (or other 3rd party) also
providing fraud protection, refund, authorization,
and settlement services. The recently announced
Coinbase Payments is one such solution, and we
think legacy acquirers will look to partner with
Coinbase to offer this "rail" among their payment
stacks if they aren't able to offer it yet.
We think the adoption of stablecoins for domestic
C2B payments will not be material in the near-term
as the infrastructure, operating rules and
ubiquitous acceptance need to be established.
For remittance and store of value use cases, the
pain-point of off-ramping can be alleviated by
stablecoin-backed cards offered by Visa and
Mastercard, allowing customers to use their
stablecoin funds at the POS without having to
exchange the funds themselves.
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Store of value – consumers in economies with high
and persistent inflation and currency volatility
often seek to deposit their savings in US$ vs local
currency, and stablecoins can provide an easy and
fast way for customers to protect their savings
outside of the local banking system, though local
banks can try to offset this by offering higher
deposit rates.
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•
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•
The transaction flow would vary depending on the
use case, but similar to commercial payments,
consumers would usually have to on- and offramp their funds into stablecoins, which could
result in additional material friction.
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Remittances – similar to commercial cross-border
transactions, consumers use stablecoins to send
funds to other countries (e.g., US to Mexico
remittances), foregoing sizeable wire transfer and
service fees charged by legacy providers (like WU).
•
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Domestic C2B payments – customers use their
stablecoin wallets to pay for goods and services.
They may or may not leverage traditional network
rails, but if they want to access the physical POS
they will need to leverage them and/or an entity
that can white-label access (like Spire).
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Operations
Source: Market experts, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Déjà vu all over again – we've seen this hype before with RTP
While payment volumes over Clearing House’s RTP and FedNow networks have been growing rapidly over the past few years (RTP transaction volume
was up 38% to 343M, and transaction value was up 94% to $246B in 2024), the vast majority of RTP volume is in the commercial space via businesses
moving funds between accounts and B2B payments (e.g., supply chain and bill payments). On the consumer side, they are concentrated in P2P transfers
and bill payments – NOT C2B – because they are irreversible, lack consumer protections, and don't offer a viable value prop to drive usage and adoption.
So, the hype around stablecoin is justified in some usage scenarios, but a bit too optimistic in others, in our view.
How do stablecoins compare to other payment methods?
Debit card
ACH
Real-time payments
/ FedNow
Stablecoins
A pull transaction (initiated by
the receiver) over a card
network
A push transaction (initiated
by the sender) over a card
network
A push or pull bank account to
bank account transaction over
a centralized US financial
network
A push-only bank account to
bank account instant
transaction
A push-only instant
transaction over a blockchain
network from one crypto
account to another
1.5%-3.5%
$0.21 + 0.05% (2-3x higher for
Durbin-exempt txns)
Varies, but generally $0.01$0.25 for txns <$100
$0.25-$1.00
<$1.0 in gas fees (not counting
on/off-ramp costs)
Consumer
incentives
Credit card rewards + 30 day
credit funding
Limited
Limited
Limited
Limited, some coins offer
rewards (but this capability is
pending final legislation)
Chargebacks
60-120 days under Reg Z
~60 days under Reg E
None
None
None, can be layered by a
provider (e.g., Coinbase)
Settlement
Usually 1 business day
Usually 1 business day
2-3 business days (same day
for instant ACH)
Instant
Instant (conversion from and
to fiat takes ~2 business days)
Geographic
coverage
Global
Global
US only (but similar local rails
exist around the globe)
US only (different RTP
methods in other countries)
Global
US volume
~$6TN
~$6TN
~$86TN
~$350B
~$3TN* (globally)
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Cost to merchants
per transaction
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Credit card
*Transaction volume adjusted to remove distortions
Source: Market experts, Visa, The Clearing House, The Federal Reserve, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Commercial use case #1: Cross-border payments
Given how slow and expensive traditional banking methods are, we view the biggest and most immediate use case for stablecoins is cross-border
payments. As such, banks are most at risk of revenue cannibalization from material stablecoin adoption in this segment.
Stablecoin txn flow (illustrative fees based on industry expert feedback)
TAM
A business wants to send $1,000 to a partner in
Mexico from their US$ bank account. The sender
can also choose to prefund their stablecoin wallet.
Total volume of cross border payments is estimated to be >$10TN, the
majority of which are B2B payments. These payments involve one or more
correspondent banks intermediating the transfer over a global SWIFT
network, increasing costs and delaying settlement time.
2
On-ramp
The stablecoin payment provider (e.g., BVNK or
Bridge) converts the $1,000 to USDC and takes a
$0.5-$1.0 fee.
Stablecoin adoption potential over the next 5 years
3 Stablecoin blockchain
Once on the blockchain, the funds transferred to
the receiving off-ramp stablecoin account, incurring
a $0.01-$0.02 gas fee, the fee paid to network
validators to process the transaction. The gas fees
can be higher depending on the network and the
level of congestion at a given time.
Adoption potential is high as SMBs can save time and costs by avoiding
correspondent banking fees in traditional wire transfers. While the relative
cost of wire transfer is low for enterprise customers given the larger size of
their payments, they can also benefit from faster settlement as
international wire transfer can take up to 5 days.
4
The receiving stablecoin wallet converts the USDC
back into fiat (Mexican Peso for this example) and
charges a $0.5-$1.0 fee.
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Off-ramp
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Sender’s bank
account in US$
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The recipient’s bank account is debited with funds
in MXN equivalent, using a domestic money
transfer method.
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Recipients bank
account in MXN
(+) B2B payment providers that adopt stablecoins as a payment rail early
on can win share. Stripe’s recent acquisitions of Bridge and Privy are great
examples of an incumbent leader retaining its competitive moat.
(-) Banks that charge correspondent banking fees for wire transfers stand
to lose the most unless they adapt.
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Winners and losers
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Source: Market experts, Visa, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Commercial use case #2: Employee payouts
Global employee payouts are cross-border transactions too, though the space is already being penetrated by fintechs like Tipalti. Stablecoins can gain a
lot of market share here as they offer a cheaper and faster way for freelancers in inflationary economies to get paid in a dollar-backed currency.
Stablecoin txn flow (illustrative fees based on industry expert feedback)
TAM
The company needs to pay 10 contractors $100
each ($1,000 total).
There are around 150-300M freelance workers globally, with almost half
of them in lower- to middle-income economies. These workers often face
pain points when getting paid, especially if they are in a different country,
which can prolong the settlement of the funds.
2
On-ramp
The stablecoin payment provider (e.g., Bridge)
converts the $1,000 to USDC and takes a small fee.
Stablecoin adoption potential over the next 5 years
Once on the blockchain, the funds are transferred
to each contractors’ stablecoin wallets, incurring
$0.01-$0.02 in gas fees total, though these can be
higher depending on the network and its
congestion.
High potential as freelance and gig economy workers in lower income
economies with high inflation and exchange rate volatility would prefer to
be paid in dollar-backed stablecoins. Companies are already using
stablecoins to payout employees, including ScaleAI using Bridge to payout
its contractors.
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...or recipients can choose to transfer funds into
their bank accounts using crypto exchanges or P2P
service providers via ACH/domestic rail.
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Recipients’ bank
accounts
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Recipients can keep the money in their stablecoin
wallet and use it via a network-issued card (e.g.,
Visa/Bridge partnership) that converts funds at the
POS for a small fee…
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Company’s bank
account in US$
Winners and losers
(+) Fintechs like Bridge and Paxos stand to monetize the increasing
adoption of stablecoins for freelance and gig worker payments. Moreover,
networks like Visa and Mastercard can also stake their market share by
providing stablecoin cards that can be used at POS.
(-) Existing payouts automation fintechs can lose market share if they do
not adopt stablecoins as a rail.
Source: Market experts, World Bank, Evercore ISI analysis
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June 26, 2025
Commercial use case #3: Corporate treasury
Accessing US$ liquidity can be challenging for importers in emerging markets, while their suppliers want to minimize exposure to local currencies.
Stablecoins can solve this by offering a cheaper and faster way to settle trade finance transactions - potentially displacing existing letters of credit solutions.
Stablecoin txn flow (illustrative fees based on industry expert feedback)
1
Company’s bank
account in NGN
The company in Nigeria wants to pay $1,000
equivalent in Nigerian Naira to its Chinese supplier
that wants to get paid in US$.
2
On-ramp
The stablecoin payment provider exchanges the
NGN funds into stablecoins for a $0.5-$1.0 fee.
TAM
Global trade is projected to have reached $33TN in 2024, with payees
often demanding payments in US$ to avoid exposure to volatile local
currencies. The payors in turn may struggle to get access to US$, often
obtaining costly and complex letters of credit from banks, which may be a
challenge for nascent SMBs.
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Stablecoin adoption potential over the next 5 years
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Once on the blockchain, the funds are transferred
to the Chinese supplier’s wallet incurring negligible
gas fees of $0.01-$0.02, though these fees may
vary.
The Chinese supplier receives the funds in their
stablecoin wallet.
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Medium as the solution will likely reach high adoption in emerging
markets with challenging access to US$ (such as sub-Saharan Africa), while
larger companies in other countries may choose to rely on existing trade
finance solutions, which carry a low cost at large payment volumes.
Moreover, existing solutions also offer short-term financing, while
stablecoins currently lack credit features.
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The supplier converts the funds into Chinese Yuan,
incurring some exchange fees or engages an offramp partner that manages the process for the
supplier for a markup fee.
(+) Fintechs like BVNK or Yellow Card that offer stablecoin fintech solutions
can gain market share especially if they offer off-ramp solutions to
recipients.
(-) Local banks that serve SMBs in emerging markets will lose market share
unless they adopt new and cheaper treasury solutions for their customers.
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Supplier's bank
account in CNY
Winners and losers
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Source: Market experts, UN, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Consumer use case #1: C2B domestic payments
While stablecoins may sound exciting for domestic payments, we believe this is the use case with the lowest near-term growth potential. The required
"infrastructure" still needs to be built out, and consumer adoption of new payment types is always a much longer curve than expected.
Stablecoin txn flow (illustrative fees based on industry expert feedback)
2
Physical point of sale
or e-commerce
gateway
Customer sends $1,000 of funds into their
stablecoin wallet, buying USDC at no cost.
Stablecoin adoption potential over the next 5 years
With $1,000 in the stablecoin wallet, customer uses
it to pay at the point-of-sale in a store (assuming
they are running over a legacy network) or at an ecommerce gateway.
Low given that the value proposition is currently not strong enough in
countries with well-established payments ecosystems where consumer
habituation is well-entrenched, and customers will require significant
incentives to leverage stablecoins. Stablecoins generally lack credit liquidity
and rewards, as well as fraud and consumer protections, so we do not see
credit (or debit) volumes facing much risk. There are some corner cases in C2B
(and maybe eComm) where stablecoin may gain some marginal share, but it
isn't a material risk to incumbents at this stage.
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Customer’s
stablecoin wallet
Worldpay estimates the total US payments market size to be $12.8T,
comprised of POS at ~$10.7T and e-commerce at another ~$2.1T. The smaller
e-commerce segment is expected to grow faster over the coming decade and
is the segment which is more accessible from a technology perspective for
digital-first and secure payment methods.
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blockchain
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A merchant acquirer with stablecoin acceptance (or
crypto platform like Coinbase) accepts the funds
and routes them to the merchant’s stablecoin
wallet, resulting in $0.01-$0.02 gas fees, though
these might be overlayed with the platform’s
additional fees for escrow, fraud, and refund
solutions.
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or crypto platform
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Merchant’s bank
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The merchant acquirer (or crypto platform)
converts the USDC into US$ and transfers the funds
to merchant’s bank account via ACH, with 1-3 day
settlement.
26
Winners and losers
(+) Crypto-wallets like Coinbase and merchant acquirers (particularly ecommerce native ones) that partner with crypto platforms to offer the
stablecoin rail among the suite of payment options stand to benefit from
increased adoption.
(-) The networks and banks that issue debit cards could be pressured, though
we think only a small portion of debit volumes are at risk in the medium-term
with more material exposure largely limited to smaller emerging markets with
volatile currencies.
Source: Market experts, Worldpay Global Payments Report, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Why stablecoin faces an uphill battle in the C2B POS space
Purely from a payments ecosystem/infrastructure perspective, it is much easier to see stablecoin acceptance growth in eComm than POS, but the
consumer adoption challenge is a just as big (if not bigger) issue for habitual and broad-based adoption for both channels. This is why we believe the
concerns over material V/MA disintermediation are really overblown.
Stablecoin adoption potential across the payment value chain
Merchant Acquirer/POS
Sales channel
Point-of-sale
Gateway
Processor
Probably the easiest part
of the transaction flow to
solve for as gateways are
able to accept new forms
of payments relatively
easily via a variety of
integration methods (like
APIs).
We estimate that the
processor piece of the
flow falls between POS
software and gateway – it
isn't impossible, but the
hurdle rate to get legacy
platforms to marshal the
resources to accept a new
form of tender is very high
(given the lack of IT
resources) and requires a
material amount of
demand from their
existing and potential
customers. We anticipate
seeing a lot of partnership
agreements in this piece
of the flow, but press
releases don't always
equate to live capabilities.
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eComm &
mobile
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Unless an alternative
payment is directly
affiliated with a network or
indirectly via an entity that
leverages their acceptance
footprint (like Spire), it is
incredibly difficult to get
legacy POS platforms to
accept a new form of nonnetwork digital payments.
Consumer
ERP / settlement
Consumer adoption
ERP platforms may be
slightly easier compared to
the processors in terms of
hurdle rates and effort, but
getting enterprise ERP
platforms to create a flow
for new tenders can be
quite expensive for a
requesting merchant.
Project approvals by
multiple departments and
IT prioritization can take a
long time, but this step is
required if the end receiver
of funds wants to maintain
consolidated reporting.
One-off settlements create
a lot of manual intervention
and unwanted costs.
The four most important
factors to drive consumer
adoption are:
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1) Acceptance ubiquity
2) Convenience/great UX
3) Security / protection
4) Compelling value prop
Over time, stablecoin will
check all four boxes, but
even then, it is still really
hard to achieve broadbased and habitual usage
from consumers who are
tied to their payment of
choice. It can be done (just
ask Target), but it is a
medium-term (5-10 years)
type of goal at best.
Source: Evercore ISI analysis
June 26, 2025
Consumer use case #2: Remittances
Similar to commercial cross-border payments, stablecoins can drive faster and cheaper remittances for individuals sending money to home countries.
Current remittance options are either slow (bank wire transfers) or expensive (Western Union), and customers are very price elastic.
Stablecoin txn flow (illustrative fees based on industry expert feedback)
2
On-ramp
The stablecoin wallet (e.g., Coinbase) converts the
$1,000 to USDC at no cost.
Total volume of remittances is estimated at ~$700B, the majority of which
are to middle- to lower-income countries, and the customers are
particularly price elastic given the elevated cost of a remittance at ~10%.
India, Mexico, China, the Philippines, and Pakistan are the biggest
recipients of remittances, while the US, Saudi Arabia, and Switzerland are
the biggest senders of funds.
Stablecoin adoption potential over the next 5 years
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Sender initiates a transaction by sending $1,000
from their bank account to a stablecoin wallet,
which can take 1-3 days with ACH.
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Sender’s bank
account in US$
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Off-ramp
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The recipient’s bank account is debited with the
funds in MXN equivalent, using a domestic transfer
method.
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Recipients bank
account in MXN
Winners and losers
(+) B2C payment providers like Bitso as well as B2B providers that enable
this rail for businesses looking to provide remittance services.
(-) Banks that charge correspondent banking fees, along with traditional
players like Western Union.
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Adoption potential is high given the current elevated costs associated with
sending money globally, as individual customers are not able to leverage
their balance sheet size and scale to drive relative costs lower similar to
corporate customers. A fintech startup Bitso is already servicing the USMexico remittance corridor by utilizing the Mexican Peso-backed
stablecoins (MXNT and MMXN).
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The receiving stablecoin wallet converts the USDC
back into fiat (Mexican Peso for this example),
incurring an exchange fee.
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Once on the blockchain, the funds are transferred
to the receiving off-ramp stablecoin account,
incurring a $0.01-$0.02 gas fee, though these fees
may vary.
28
Source: Market experts, World Bank, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Consumer use case #3: Store of value
Holding stablecoins backed by US$ as a store of value is already seeing high adoption in high-inflation economies like Turkey. We believe the adoption
will continue to increase as fintechs enable customers to transact directly with their stablecoin balances, without having to manually convert into fiat.
Stablecoin txn flow (illustrative fees based on industry expert feedback)
Stablecoin adoption potential over the next 5 years
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Stablecoin wallet
The user deposits the funds into a stablecoin wallet
(e.g., MiniPay) and converts it into USDC, paying a
small exchange fee. The user has now saved their
funds in a dollarized currency, removing local
currency exchange rate and inflation risks.
There are more than 25 countries with 1.3B of total residents that are
experiencing inflation above 10%. To protect their savings, many would
happily save in a dollarized currency if the option is cheap and easily
available, especially as interest rates offered on US$ deposits by local
banks can be negligible. Turkey is one such example, with a population of
85M, inflation at 35%, and a history of currency volatility.
Unsurprisingly, Turkey is the largest buyer of stablecoins relative to its GDP
at 4%, so stablecoin adoption for store of value is already high in some
countries. This should continue to increase globally as tools enabling users
to transact with their stablecoin balances without having to move funds
between accounts become more readily available.
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The user can also use stablecoinbacked cards issued by Visa or
Mastercard, enabling them to
transact at the POS directly
without having to convert into
fiat themselves, though each
transaction would incur a fee.
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Whenever the user wants to
access funds, they convert them
back into TRY and pay a small
exchange fee.
OR
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Individual’s bank account in
TRY
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The user is paid their salary in non-US$ currency
($1,000 equivalent in Turkish Lira for this example).
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Individual’s bank
account in TRY
TAM
Winners and losers
(+) Stablecoin wallets (e.g., MiniPay) can win share of wallet, along with
Visa and Mastercard as they already offer stablecoin-backed cards in
partnership with fintechs.
(-) Local banks in emerging markets will be negatively impacted by the
resulting dollarization, as people’s savings leave the traditional banking
system, though they could try to impede this transition by offering higher
interest rates for $ deposits.
Source: Market experts, World Bank, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
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3) Recent developments and implications for our coverage
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Summary of recent stablecoin developments and implications for both the broader fintech ecosystem
and each name in our coverage
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June 26, 2025
Recent developments have put stablecoins at the top of the fintech news flow
There has been such a huge onslaught of recent headlines and press releases, so the list below is just a sampling and is obviously not exhaustive. We
expect that trend to continue, with some being more substantial and relevant than others.
Recent developments
Large merchants have announced their
intentions to enable stablecoins for consumer
and B2B payments, which caused V/MA stocks
to dip on the news.
•
Many other large merchants are likely to follow suit,
but we do not expect high adoption of merchantspecific C2B stablecoin payments, as evidenced by
early pay-by-bank volumes to date.
•
Successful stablecoin-related IPOs are driving
significant optimism around the space - Circle,
a stablecoin issuer, is up 541%1 from its IPO
pricing and eToro, a brokerage platform for
stocks/crypto, is up 25%1 from its IPO price.
•
The first two IPOs out of the gate in 2025 have been
well-received by investors in the initial month-and-ahalf of trading, which will likely prompt others in the
space to revisit their access to capital markets.
•
Stripe acquired crypto wallet provider Privy to
largely complete its stablecoin payments
infrastructure build. It also made headlines by
enabling stablecoins as a default payout option
for Shopify merchants.
•
While we view the adoption potential of C2B
stablecoin payments as low, Stripe’s infrastructure
developments provide its customer base with a
potentially cheaper x-border payments option given
the high x-border fees most SMBs face.
•
V and MA have expanded their partnerships
with stablecoin issuers (e.g., Fiserv, Circle, and
Chainlink) to integrate stablecoins across their
respective networks and enable cardholders to
directly purchase crypto on-chain.
•
The networks have embraced stablecoins, and the
recent announcements signal their continued
commitment to staying ahead of any potential for
displacement of their core services. V/MA appear
well-positioned to serve as the bridge between fiat
and stablecoin and merchant stablecoin acceptance.
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Merchant
announcements
M&A
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partnerships
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1. Circle and eToro pricing quoted as of 6/25/2025 market close
Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Deep dive on Coinbase Payments & the Coinbase One Card
Coinbase has made some significant recent advances in promoting consumer/merchant stablecoin adoption. We think
Coinbase’s solutions are a solid first step, but widespread adoption is a longer horizon challenge.
Coinbase One Card (Fall 2025 launch
expected)
Coinbase Payments (launched June 18th, 2025)
Overview / key features: Coinbase Payments is a stablecoin payments stack, enabling merchants to accept and send USDCwithout requiring developers to build full blockchain infrastructure. Key features include:
o Consumer:
― Stablecoin Checkout: A consumer-facing, wallet-native checkout interface supporting stablecoin payments
from hundreds of digital wallets (e.g., Coinbase Wallet, MetaMask, Phantom, etc). Coinbase advertises nearinstant and gas-fee-free settlement, allowing merchants to significantly reduce payments acceptance costs and
optimize treasury management. The merchant-facing APIs handle typical payment workflows (e.g.,
authorization, capture, refunds, subscriptions, ledgering).
― Rewards and loyalty: Not yet available, but Coinbase is advertising that USDC-backed rewards (e.g., loyalty,
cashback) are coming soon to the platform (pending federal legislation may impact this initiative – stay tuned).
― Regulatory & compliance tools: KYC screening and auditable on-chain execution tools that provide merchants
and acquirers with visibility over settlement processes and the compliance tools required to accept stablecoins.
o Commercial:
― Global payouts and remittances: The platform enables near-real-time USDC payouts to contractors, suppliers,
employees, and marketplace merchants at competitive pricing to traditional rails.
Implications / our perspectives: Coinbase Payments offers the enterprise-grade USDC payment infrastructure and one-stopshop experience required for merchants to begin to broadly leverage stablecoins. Shopify is already live and is a strong initial
partnership to promote adoption among SMBs, and we expect other larger merchants to follow suit. However, while
solutions like Coinbase Payments are a key first step in the stablecoin evolution, we think widespread consumer adoption is
still far out. Consumers in geographies with well-established payment ecosystems are slow to change their payment
behaviors even when offered significant rewards (e.g., Pay-by-Bank), and Coinbase Payments is more likely to partner with
merchant acquirers than replace them completely. We expect to see greater traction among consumers in emerging markets
or in countries with volatile currencies. The commercial use cases are more likely to see greater adoption, particularly for
smaller merchants that face high cross-border fees when issuing employing payouts or paying suppliers. However, both the
merchant and supplier will need to be integrated onto the Coinbase Payments platform or employees will need a digital
wallet in order to facilitate stablecoin payments, which may take some time.
•
Overview / key features: The Coinbase One Card is a credit
card issued in partnership with American Express and First
Electronic bank offering users 2–4% back in Bitcoin on
eligible purchases, with the rate scaling based on the amount
of crypto held in the users’ Coinbase account—starting at 2%,
and up to 4% for higher asset tiers. It also carries AmEx-style
benefits, including travel, purchase, and fraud protections.
Notably, the Coinbase One Card is a traditional credit card
and does not allow consumers to spend using USDC – it runs
over legacy AmEx rails.
•
Implications / our perspectives: The Coinbase One card
appears to be catered towards a more niche, crypto-focused
set of consumers and we expect adoption to be relatively low
compared to other luxury credit cards. Despite its name and
crypto-friendly features, the Coinbase One Card is just
another traditional credit card on the American Express
network and will not promote greater stablecoin adoption.
We think stablecoin powered cards are next in the product
development pipeline, but consumer protections on
stablecoins transactions remain to be established. Consumer
adoption is likely to remain low until stablecoin cards are
more widely proliferated.
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Source: Coinbase public filings, American Express public filings, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Impacts of stablecoin adoption on the broader fintech ecosystem (1/4)
Potential impact
Overview
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Pos.
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✓ New revenue streams – networks ― Reduced debit / new flows volumes – stablecoins
could serve as the bridge between
enable P2P, C2B, and B2B transactions with little or
fiat and stablecoin transactions
no reliance on traditional intermediaries,
offering the payment rails (e.g.,
bypassing the networks. Material consumer
stablecoin-backed cards),
adoption is unlikely in the near term (stablecoins
settlement infrastructure, and
must overcome large consumer habituation and
regulatory compliance layers for
incentives barriers before achieving widespread
businesses and consumers.
consumer adoption). Relative exposure for V/MA is
✓ Extension of existing services –
limited to new flows (~2.5% of V’s FY2024 net
VAS such as fraud detection, KYC,
revenue, not disclosed for MA) and consumer
AML, tokenization, etc. can be
debit (51% of volume for V, 45% for MA as of
offered to stablecoin issuers and
1Q25), of which only a very small portion of debit
DeFi platforms, providing a natural
is at risk (primarily volumes from consumers in
extension of existing services.
emerging markets or with volatile currencies). We
✓ Partnership opportunities –
also think any transition from consumer debit to
stablecoin providers will need to
stablecoin will occur over a longer-term horizon.
partner with the networks to
― Commoditization risks – payment rails could
enable ubiquity of acceptance,
become interchangeable and compress traditional
particularly at the physical POS.
interchange fees, but that too is unlikely and a
✓ Expanded reach – stablecoins offer
longer-term consideration.
financial inclusion to unbanked
― Lower cross-border margins – more efficient
regions currently unserved by the
cross-border transactions could reduce the need
networks where card penetration is
for expensive FX conversion and int. card rails,
low and smartphone usage is high.
which can be significant revenue drivers for the
networks in some cases.
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Card networks are at a
strategic inflection point stablecoins could either
expand their
reach/relevance as hybrid
digital payment rails or
slightly erode debit/credit
volumes in niche cases
over time, and/or growing
presence in
Commercial/B2B. Both
V/MA have made
significant strides, and
continued execution is
required to maintain an
advantaged position. We
expect recent initiatives
and strategic plans to be a
big part of their upcoming
conference calls.
Bear case
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Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Impacts of stablecoin adoption on the broader fintech ecosystem (2/4)
Potential impact
― Deposit risk – stablecoins may cause some
deposit flight away from traditional banks if
consumers prefer holding stablecoins balances
in digital wallets (or staking them to earn yield)
than checking/savings accounts.
― Margin compression for cross-border –
greater stablecoin adoption for cross-border
payments may weigh on the lucrative fees that
banks earn for facilitating cross-border
transactions.
― Interchange compression – while stablecoins
are less of a threat to credit cards, debit card
interchange revenue could be pressured
modestly over time by stablecoin adoption,
with both the possibility of lower transaction
volumes.
― Regulatory & compliance complexities –
operating in the stablecoin ecosystem entails
new AML/KYC compliance measures and
additional infrastructure upgrades that will
increase operational costs.
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✓ New revenue streams – banks could
earn revenue by offering stablecoin
custody and exchange services,
issuing their own coins/yield
products, or create / participate in
the blockchain payments networks
(e.g., JPM Coin) and charge fees for
stablecoin transactions via their
merchant processing arms, etc.
✓ Tokenized deposits and stablecoin
issuance – banks may issue their own
stablecoins or tokenized deposit
products, preserving deposit bases.
✓ Access to new markets & 24/7
payments – stablecoins enable
global and instant payments,
providing banks/customers with
greater access to liquidity.
✓ Credit unlikely to be replaced –
stablecoins are not credit products
and we believe demand for credit
products will remain in place.
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Pos.
Stablecoin adoption
presents significant risk of
disruption to banks - we
believe the downside risk is
more severe for card issuers
but also impacts traditional
depository banks and those
that enable cross-border
payments as well. Issuing
banks that delay a digital
transformation towards
crypto enablement could
potentially face increasing
erosion of core revenue
streams, but those that
proactively engage in the
digital asset ecosystem can
likely capitalize on the
transition. Regulatory clarity
and public trust in
decentralized financial
instruments will be key
drivers of adoption for
issuers.
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Banks
Bull case
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Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Impacts of stablecoin adoption on the broader fintech ecosystem (3/4)
Potential impact
Overview
Neg.
Pos.
We view stablecoin adoption as ✓ Faster settlement and reduced costs – ― Disintermediation – it’s possible that
a broadly positive trend for
stablecoins, particularly on efficient
merchants could offer direct stablecoin
merchant acquirers. Enabling a
blockchains (e.g., Layer 2s, Solana), can
acceptance, bypassing acquirers. We
new payment method is nothing
enable near-instant, 24/7 settlement
view this as largely unlikely for most
new for merchant acquirers (e.g.,
and lower transaction processing costs,
merchants and only relevant for the
BNPL) and stablecoins provide a
reducing the reliance on legacy clearing
largest, digital-only merchants, given POS
natural extension of traditional
systems (e.g., ACH, card networks) and
infrastructure will still be required for
merchant acquirer services.
the likelihood of chargeback risk.
card present payments, and SMBs lack
Digitally- native acquirers who
✓ New revenue streams – traditional
the scale required to justify maintaining
begin offering crypto services in
VAS (e.g., fraud, chargeback protection,
multiple processing vendors. We also
the near term (e.g., Stripe) can
etc.) and new products (e.g., on/off
think it’s highly unlikely that a merchant
capture upside. Those that wait
ramps, treasury solutions, digital
bypasses their acquirer to only accept
to build out stablecoin
wallets) can be offered to merchants.
stablecoin payments.
infrastructure or delay partnering ✓ Stickier merchant relationships –
― Competitive pressures – crypto-native
with providers are at risk of
lowering processing costs provides a
processors (e.g., MoonPay, Coinbase
becoming share donors.
significant competitive advantage for
Commerce, etc.) could begin to take
acquirers who enable stablecoin
share from acquirers in the eComm
payments.
processing space.
✓ Smart contracts / programmable
― Regulatory & compliance complexities –
payments – new features can be
operating in the stablecoin ecosystem
offered to merchants offering
entails new AML/KYC compliance
capabilities such as automated refunds,
measures and additional infrastructure
automated tracking, etc.
upgrades that will increase operational
costs.
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Bull case
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Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Impacts of stablecoin adoption on the broader fintech ecosystem (4/4)
Provider segment
Potential impact
Overview
•
Digital wallets
Pos.
Bear case
Stablecoins should provide a
✓ Accelerate bank-the-base trends –
― Regulatory, compliance, and security
long-term growth engine for
stablecoins enable interest-bearing
complexities – operating in the
digital wallet providers. Many
savings, lending, and other financial
stablecoin ecosystem could entail new
digital wallets have embraced
services without bank partnerships.
AML/KYC compliance measures and
crypto, proactively investing in
✓ New user acquisition funnel –
additional infrastructure upgrades that
stablecoin infrastructure and
offering crypto functionality has been
will increase operational costs. Providing
building a strong UI/UX for crypto.
a successful user acquisition tool (e.g.,
security and custodian services over
Proliferated stablecoin adoption
Cash App).
crypto assets also creates greater
should serve as a boon for greater ✓ New revenue streams and efficient
technological / operational complexities
digital wallet usage and an
cross-border payments – digital
for digital wallet providers.
acceleration of the bank-the-base
wallet providers can generate yield on ― Competitive pressures – crypto-native
strategy.
customer balances and can also
wallets (e.g., Coinbase Wallet,
reduce international remittance
MetaMask, etc.) could begin to take
processing costs by bypassing SWIFT
share from other digital wallets.
and other legacy rails.
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Assuming they can drive
✓ Reduced cost of acceptance – Lower
adoption (which historically been
payments acceptance costs through
elusive in aggregate) merchants
bypassing network rails.
theoretically accrue the largest
✓ Loyalty driver – potential to drive
benefits of stablecoin adoption
increased loyalty if merchants offer
via reducing payments acceptance
rewards (e.g., cash-back, points) on a
costs and creating greater
branded offering.
treasury management efficiency.
✓ Treasury optimization – faster
We expect B2B use cases to
settlement times, ability to earn yield
provide the most near-term
on stablecoin balances, and reduced
benefit, with a longer horizon for
risk of chargebacks.
consumer adoption.
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Neg.
Bull case
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Merchants
― Customer adoption – consumer
adoption of stablecoins is likely to be
slow and require significant investment.
― Integration complexity – most
merchants will require digital
transformations to be able to accept
stablecoins.
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Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
What are the networks doing to prevent disintermediation from stablecoins?
crypto initiatives (not exhaustive)
Initiative
crypto initiatives (not exhaustive)
Initiative
Description
Enables Visa card issuers, consumers, and
merchants to send and receive payments in
USDC
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•
Provenance
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Visa partnered with Bridge to launch stablecoinlinked Visa cards, enabling users to make
everyday purchases using stablecoins like USDC
Partnerships
with FI &
Chainlink
Blockchain-based solution that allows businesses
to track / trace products and payments across
their supply chain
Provenance optimizes operations by creating
automatic invoices and triggering payments
when supply chain agreements are fulfilled
•
Crypto fraud detection and analytics platform,
allowing organizations to identify and trace
fraudulent or illicit transactions
•
MA is integrating Fiserv’s FIUSD to the network,
allowing for the issuance of stablecoin-linked
cards and merchant settlement in FIUSD
The Chainlink partnership allows MA cardholders
to purchase crypto directly on-chain
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Bridge
partnership
•
•
CipherTrace
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Partnership
with Circle
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Visa B2B
Connect
•
Blockchain-based X-border B2B payments
offered to merchants via Visa FI clients
Provides businesses with a faster/cheaper
alternative to traditional B2B payments networks
– the single integration removes the need for
intermediary banks to settle payments locally
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Description
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Both Visa and Mastercard have responded to stablecoin threats by building out crypto services of their own, albeit with different approaches. Visa is focused
on building crypto payments infrastructure, whereas Mastercard has indexed more heavily on value-added services. V/MA’s strategies have the potential to
broaden the reach of the networks to additional transaction types and the balance of puts/takes for the networks depends on the type of transactions crypto
ultimately replaces (e.g., ACH vs. credit / debit). Over time, we expect both to wind up generally in the same place in terms of their respective offerings and
we think the recent drawdown on the networks’ stocks in response to crypto news is likely overblown. Both have positioned themselves well to support the
ecosystem, and we do not see stablecoins replacing consumer credit/debit transactions anytime soon. We view stablecoin as more of a threat to growth in
the commercial/B2B segments, which V/MA have both identified as a long-term growth priority, but do not have much market share in the segment today.
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Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Impacts of stablecoin adoption across our coverage universe
Name
Impact
Rationale
• V’s existing capabilities (e.g., V B2B connect), partnerships with crypto providers, and recent pilot programs for on-chain settlement position it well to
capitalize on the stablecoin opportunity. There is some marginal risk of reduced debit and new flows volumes if stablecoins gain traction as direct settlement
rails, but for now the upside/downside seems neutral/positive.
• MA’s VAS-forward approach to serving the crypto ecosystem (e.g., Provenance, CipherTrace) and recent partnerships with stablecoin issuers (e.g., FI,
Chainlink) support a favorable outlook for stablecoin’s impact on MA. Given there is some risk to debit/new flows, we view the impact as neutral for now.
• TOST is among the least affected names in our coverage as it relates to increased stablecoin adoption. TOST can implement stablecoin acceptance into its
POS system, but demand among its customer base is likely very low given its skew towards card-present, C2B transactions.
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• Increased stablecoin adoption would have a strong positive impact on XYZ by accelerating Cash App’s bank-the-base strategy and the Spiral platform
(initiative to fund crypto tool/infrastructure development). XYZ is already implementing capabilities that will allow Square merchants to accept crypto at the
POS, and the company’s strong existing focus in the segment positions it towards the front of the pack to capitalize on increased stablecoin adoption.
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• Stablecoins may serve as a modest tailwind to FOUR’s pursuit of an increased global omnichannel acquiring footprint. FOUR’s partnership with Starlink is a
strong case study for a business that would significantly benefit from stablecoin acceptance given the majority of its consumer payments are cross-border.
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• Stablecoin enablement is a natural development for Adyen to provide to its largely enterprise eComm-focused customer base. It is likely a neutral/positive
potential catalyst, and we will look to near-term commentary from mgmt to assess their strategy. We don't think there is a lot of customer demand for it
currently, but we believe Adyen could add capabilities to its "single platform" relatively easily.
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• Similar to the other acquirers, stablecoin enablement should provide another source of revenue for GPN. However, GPN, is more at risk of some revenue
cannibalization of its large cross-border payments business with increased adoption of stablecoins. The BVNK/Worldpay partnership helps to somewhat
mitigate the risk.
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• As an issuer of its own stablecoin, PYUSD, PYPL is well-positioned to capitalize on a shift towards increased stablecoin adoption. However, stablecoin usage
could slightly erode PYPL’s largest segment, Branded checkout, if C2B stablecoin usage takes off (which we believe to be relatively unlikely).
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• We do not believe stablecoins will have a large impact on Affirm or credit products more broadly. Stablecoin does not provide consumers with the liquidity
benefits that credit products offer to consumers and should have little impact on Affirm’s core value prop and usage.
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Negative
Positive
Source: Public filings & Company press releases, Evercore ISI estimates
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
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4) Regulatory updates, drivers of adoption, and key challenges
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An update on the GENIUS Act - which gained recent Senate approval - and a breakdown of the key
drivers of adoption and challenges increased stablecoin adoption faces
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This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Overview of the US federal stablecoin bill (GENIUS Act)
The GENIUS Act provides the clarity around issuing and regulatory authority that the industry was looking for. However, a
market framework (which is in the works) still needs to be established before we see mainstream stablecoin adoption.
Background / key initiatives
Implications / perspectives
•
Background: On June 17, 2025 the Guiding and Establishing National Innovation for US Stablecoins
(“GENIUS”) Act was approved by the Senate establishing a federal licensing and supervisory
framework for payment stablecoins and their issuers. We now await the House version of related
legislation to be released, which is expected to be finalized before August.
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Key initiatives:
• Defines “payment stablecoins” as digital assets pegged to a fixed monetary value primarily used
for payments and settlements. The act also clarifies that stablecoins are not securities and
prohibits federal banking agencies from requiring an asset held in custody to be treated as a
liability. Stablecoin issuers are prohibited from offering interest or yield to holders of payment
stablecoins to prevent stablecoins from being treated liked investment products.
• Reserve requirements – issuers must maintain a 1:1 backing of stablecoins with high-quality liquid
assets (e.g., USD or short-term t-bills). Monthly audits by public accounting firms are mandated.
• The bill prohibits the issuance of stablecoins in the US from any “non-permitted payment
stablecoin issuers”. Permitted stablecoin issuers may be one of the following:
― Subsidiary of an insured depository institution approved to issue stablecoins, Federal qualified
nonbank payment stablecoin issuer, State qualified payment stablecoin issuer operating under
federal standards or state standards that are substantially similar to federal
― Dual regulatory oversight – Issuers with over $10BN in market cap will be regulated by federal
agencies and smaller issuers may opt for state-level regulation, if they meet federal standards.
• AML/KYC and consumer protection standards are placed on stablecoin custodians, with
stablecoin holders prioritized in insolvency proceedings. Issuers must comply with US AML
sanctions requirements.
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•
The GENIUS Act is a step in the right direction for establishing
clear licensing and supervisory guidelines that the industry can
now operate under by defining:
― What stablecoins are and reserve requirements
― Who can issue stablecoins
― How stablecoin issuers will be regulated
― Consumer protections
The GENIUS Act sets the groundwork for codifying stablecoins
as a legitimate form of payment in the financial system.
However, a market framework still needs to be created (and is
said to be in the works) to establish consumer protections and
systemic safeguards before we see mainstream adoption.
Prohibiting stablecoin holders from earning yield may shift the
business model going forward if the final piece of legislation
upholds these restrictions. However, while eliminating yields
may pose a headwind to consumer adoption, aligning
stablecoins more closely with FDIC-insured bank deposits in
function and risk should improve consumer and institutional
confidence in the system.
Large tech companies are also barred from issuing stablecoins,
tightening centralized oversight of the ecosystem and forcing
big tech companies to partner with FIs to issue their own coins.
Source: Senator Bill Hagerty, Davis Polk, Covington Law, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Drivers of crypto payments adoption and key challenges
We are in the very early days of crypto payments and draw an analogy to the early days of the Internet with
dial-up connectivity. Its growth and adoption will depend on how well industry challenges are addressed.
Drivers of adoption
Key challenges
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Technology
improvements
Security improvements, crypto gateways, digital wallet
compatibility, exchanges, and new financial products
have all contributed to improved accessibility to crypto
payments, but it is far from ubiquitous on the
merchant acceptance perspective.
Consumer
education /
trust
Volatility
Scalability
Increased crypto payment volumes have revealed
limitations around its throughput capacity and latency
compared to legacy payment methods. While limited
throughput is not a significant barrier today given the
low-velocity / high-volume B2B payments that crypto
is typically used for today, scalability remains a key
challenge for consumer payments where increased
processing capacity will be required.
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clarity
Defined regulations and greater oversight should drive
increased participation / investment from financial
intuitions and greater consumer confidence – a
significant anticipated catalyst under Trump 2.0.
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Introduction of stablecoins, usage in B2B payments,
and nascent footprint among consumer payments has
shifted the perception around crypto’s use cases away
from just speculative trading assets.
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Crypto is attractive in markets with high inflation or
other economic pressures as a store of value or where
a large portion of the population is unbanked.
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Global economic
instability /
pressures
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Use case
evolution
Despite growing mainstream adoption, many
consumers (and businesses) view crypto as highly
complicated and lack knowledge around what crypto
is, how it works, and how to purchase and transact in
crypto. Greater consumer education and awareness is
required for widespread adoption of crypto payments.
Some cryptocurrencies can be highly volatile, with
large intra-day swings in price; this has traditionally
been a larger barrier for merchant willingness to
accept crypto as a payment method, but it has been
mitigated with the introduction of stablecoins.
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Some acquirers, networks, and financial institutions
have started to offer crypto-related services, making it
easier for consumers to buy, sell, and store crypto.
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Growing
acceptance
footprint
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This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
Source: Evercore ISI analysis
June 26, 2025
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Private company profiles – a few of the more interesting names
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We have provided a small sampling of the names we get asked about more frequently in this space. We
expect this list to grow significantly over the coming months.
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This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Private company profile: Fireblocks
Key products / services
Fireblocks offers a digital asset management platform that
provides crypto treasury management, wallet-as-a-service and
tokenization services. Fireblocks has 1,300+ institutional
clients and $45BN+ stored by customers
Employees
~750 FTEs
Institutional-grade network enabling
secure asset transfers across
exchanges, digital wallets, and
custodians
•
Provides secure private keys, enabling
parties to transact without revealing
any private data held by each party
•
Treasury management, wallet-as-aservice, tokenization, and Web3 engine
solutions
•
Integrated AML/KYC screening, threat
detection, and compliance
enforcement tools
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Traditional financial institutions (banks, prime brokers,
custodians, exchanges), web 3 companies, and fintechs
Multi-party
computation
security
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Target client
segments
•
Asset transfer
network
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Company
overview
Platform
applications
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Latest funding round was a $550M Series E in 2022
Investors include D1 Capital Partners, Spark Capital,
Coatue, Stripes, Cyberstarts, Haun Ventures, and more
Compliance &
Security
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Source: Public Filings and Company press releases, Pitchbook, LinkedIn, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Private company profile: MoonPay
Key products / services
•
MoonPay offers a crypto acceptance solution for merchants to
embed into their checkout flow. MoonPay also offers a mobile
app for consumers to buy and trade crypto.
~350 FTEs
Target client
segments
Enterprise corporates and retail/individual consumers
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Employees
Consumer on-/
off-ramp
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MoonPay offers a turnkey API for
embedding crypto payments, NFT
purchases, and on-ramping into thirdparty platforms, wallets, and
marketplaces.
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A fiat checkout solution for NFTs that
allows users to buy digital collectibles
with a credit card—without needing a
crypto wallet or prior crypto holdings.
Embedded Web3
integration
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Latest funding round was a $200M debt facility. Notable
equity rounds include a $555M Series A in 2021, valuing
the company at $3.4BN
Investors include Tiger Global, Coatue, NEA, Paradigm,
Blossom Capital, and others.
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NFT checkout
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Example clients
Financing
history /
selected
investors
MoonPay’s on-ramp allows users to
purchase cryptocurrencies with fiat
(e.g., USD, EUR, GBP) using traditional
payment methods like credit/debit
cards, Apple Pay, Google Pay, Samsung
Pay, and bank transfers.
The off-ramp solution enables users to
convert crypto into fiat and withdraw it
into a bank account or card.
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Company
overview
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Source: Public Filings and Company press releases, Pitchbook, LinkedIn, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Private company profile: Paxos
Key products / services
Paxos is a regulated blockchain infrastructure platform that
enables enterprises to tokenize, custody, trade, and settle
digital and traditional assets, including stablecoins like USDP
and PAXG.
Employees
~300-350 FTEs
White-label crypto trading rails
provided to enterprise clients like
PayPal and Revolut
Stablecoin
issuance &
payments
•
Paxos issues two stablecoins – USDP
(regulated dollar-backed stablecoin)
and PAXG (gold-backed token)
Tokenization &
settlement
infrastructure
•
Post-trade settlement for securities
and commodities with blockchain
cleared transactions for clients
•
Paxos’ itBit Exchange offers a NYDFS regulated platform for BTC, ETH, PAXG,
and others
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Enterprise fintechs and traditional financial institutions
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segments
•
Crypto
brokerage
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Company
overview
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Latest disclosed funding round was a $300M Series D at a
$2.4BN valuation. Undisclosed rounds have been raised
since.
Investors include Oak HC/FT, PayPal Ventures, Coinbase
Ventures, Bank of America, Founders Fund, Declaration
Partners, WestCap, and more
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Digital asset
exchange
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Source: Public Filings and Company press releases, Pitchbook, LinkedIn, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Private company profile: Ripple
Key products / services
Company
overview
Ripple is both a provider of blockchain-based cross-border
solutions and an issuer of the cryptocurrency XRP. It partners
with FIs and payment providers to enable real-time
international transactions
Employees
~1,000-1,100 FTEs
Target client
segments
Primarily large banks, payment processors, and corporates
•
RippleNet is a global payments
network designed to replace outdated
SWIFT infrastructure:
― xCurrent: Enables banks to
message each other in real-time
for end-to-end tracking and
settlement of fiat currencies
― xVia: API interface that allows
corporate payment originators to
connect to RippleNet without a
complex tech stack
•
Decentralized blockchain network
offering real-time settlement, asset
issuance, and interbank liquidity
routing
•
Leverages XRP as a bridge asset
between two fiat currencies,
eliminating the need for pre-funded
nostro/vostro accounts. XRP is instantly
converted to local currency on the
receiving end
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RippleNet
XRP Ledger
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Hybrid funding model - raised approximately ~$300 million
via VC rounds and substantial revenue from XRP token
sales (~$1.25 billion between 2016–2020)
Investors include Andreessen Horowitz, Google Ventures,
Lightspeed, Pantera, IDG, Standard Chartered, and more
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On-demand
liquidity (ODL)
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Source: Public Filings and Company press releases, Pitchbook, LinkedIn, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
Private company profile: Walapay
Key products / services
Employees
~10FTEs
Target client
segments
Corporates (payroll providers, marketplaces, and gig-economy
platforms), fintechs, payment processors, and banks
•
Provides the infrastructure for
businesses, fintechs, payment
processors, and FIs to send and receive
fiat and stablecoin funds
internationally
•
Walapay issues multi-currency bank
accounts and stablecoin wallets
supporting USDC/USDT and 10 fiat
currencies
•
The platform includes embedded KYC,
ID/TIN matching, and OFAC/PRP
sanction screening to simplify
regulatory compliance for businesses
and payees globally
Global payments
API
Virtual accounts
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Company
overview
Walapay offers real-time cross-border stablecoin
infrastructure that enables businesses, fintechs, and payment
processors to send, hold, and receive stablecoin payments and
auto-convert them to fiat currency. The platform processed
$400M in annualized volume as of April 2025
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Walapay is early-stage, recent funding rounds not publicly
disclosed
Investors include Artichoke Capital, Fiat Ventures, Figure
Eight Investments, and more
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Source: Public Filings and Company press releases, Pitchbook, LinkedIn, Evercore ISI analysis
This document is provided for the exclusive use of hh7645532@gmail.com.
June 26, 2025
TIMESTAMP
(Article 3(1)e and Article 7 of MAR)
Time of dissemination: June 26 2025 12:02 AM ET
ANALYST CERTIFICATION
The analyst, Adam Frisch, primarily responsible for the preparation of this research report attest to the following: (1) that the views and opinions
rendered in this research report reflect his or her personal views about the subject companies or issuers; and (2) that no part of the research
analyst’s compensation was, is, or will be directly related to the specific recommendations or views in this research report.
IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES
This report is approved and/or distributed by Evercore Group L.L.C. ("Evercore Group"), a U.S. licensed broker-dealer regulated by the Financial
Industry Regulatory Authority ("FINRA"), and Evercore ISI International Limited ("lSI UK''), which is authorised and regulated in the United
Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority. The institutional sales, trading and research businesses of Evercore Group and lSI UK collectively
operate under the global marketing brand name Evercore lSI ("Evercore lSI"). Both Evercore Group and lSI UK are subsidiaries of Evercore Inc.
("Evercore"). The trademarks, logos and service marks shown on this report are registered trademarks of Evercore.
The analysts and associates responsible for preparing this report receive compensation based on various factors, including Evercore’s Partners'
total revenues, a portion of which is generated by affiliated investment banking transactions. Evercore lSI seeks to update its research as
appropriate, but various regulations may prevent this from happening in certain instances. Aside from certain industry reports published on a
periodic basis, the large majority of reports are published at irregular intervals as appropriate in the analyst's judgment.
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Evercore lSI generally prohibits analysts, associates and members of their households from maintaining a financial interest in the securities of any
company in the analyst's area of coverage. Any exception to this policy requires specific approval by a member of our Compliance Department.
Such ownership is subject to compliance with applicable regulations and disclosure. Evercore lSI also prohibits analysts, associates and
members of their households from serving as an officer, director, advisory board member or employee of any company that the analyst covers.
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This report may include a Tactical Call, which describes a near-term event or catalyst affecting the subject company or the market overall and
which is expected to have a short-term price impact on the equity shares of the subject company. This Tactical Call is separate from the analyst's
long-term recommendation (Outperform, In Line or Underperform) that reflects a stock's forward 12-month expected return, is not a formal rating
and may differ from the target prices and recommendations reflected in the analyst's long-term view.
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Applicable current disclosures regarding the subject companies covered in this report are available at the offices of Evercore ISI: 55
East 52nd Street, New York, NY 10055, and at the following site: https://evercoreisi.mediasterling.com/disclosure.
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Evercore and its affiliates, and I or their respective directors, officers, members and employees, may have, or have had, interests or qualified
holdings on issuers mentioned in this report. Evercore and its affiliates may have, or have had, business relationships with the companies
mentioned in this report.
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Additional information on securities or financial instruments mentioned in this report is available upon request.
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Ratings Definitions
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Evercore lSI's recommendations are based on a stock's total forecasted return over the next 12 months. Total forecasted return is equal to the
expected percentage price return plus gross dividend yield. We divide our stocks under coverage into three primary ratings categories, with the
following return guidelines:
Outperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be greater than the expected total return of the analyst's coverage sector.
In Line- the total forecasted return is expected to be in line with the expected total return of the analyst's coverage sector.
Underperform- the total forecasted return is expected to be less than the expected total return of the analyst's coverage sector.
Coverage Suspended- the rating and target price have been removed pursuant to Evercore lSI policy when Evercore is acting in an advisory
capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving this company and in certain other circumstances.*
Rating Suspended- Evercore lSI has suspended the rating and target price for this stock because there is not sufficient fundamental basis for
determining, or there are legal, regulatory or policy constraints around publishing, a rating or target price. The previous rating and target price, if
any, are no longer in effect for this company and should not be relied upon.*
*Prior to October 10, 2015, the "Coverage Suspended" and "Rating Suspended" categories were included in the category "Suspended."
FlNRA requires that members who use a ratings system with terms other than "Buy," "Hold/Neutral" and "Sell" to equate their own
ratings to these categories. For this purpose, and in the Evercore lSI ratings distribution below, our Outperform, In Line, and
Underperform ratings can be equated to Buy, Hold and Sell, respectively.
Evercore lSI rating (as of 06/26/2025)
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Coverage Universe
Ratings
Buy
Hold
Sell
Coverage Suspended
Rating Suspended
Count
441
280
14
15
6
Investment Banking Services I Past 12 Months
Ratings
Count
Pct.
Buy
60
14
Hold
21
8
Sell
1
7
Coverage Suspended
3
20
Rating Suspended
1
17
Pct.
58
37
2
2
1
Issuer-Specific Disclosures (as of June 26, 2025)
The analyst was the CEO of Buy It Mobility Inc. (now Spire) and has a financial interest in the company.
Price Charts
GENERAL DISCLOSURES
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