STRICTLY PRIVATE AND CONFIDENTIAL Happy Hour Co — MODEL Mar-20 Assumptions Circular switch On / off 1 Key assumptions Last Historical FYE Transaction date 30-Mar-19 31-Mar-20 Enterprise value calculation Current share price (c) NOSH (m) Market cap ($m) Net debt / (cash) ($m) Minority interests ($m) Pension liability ($m) Investment in associates ($m) 165.0 p_price 199.0 328.4 84.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV ($m) 413.0 Happy Hour Co - 5 Year plan 5 Year Plan 583 50.7% (523) 60 5.2% (5) 55 FY21 1,256 9.3% 634 50.5% (580) 54 4.3% (6) 48 FY22 1,354 7.8% 689 50.9% (622) 67 4.9% (6) 61 FY23 1,447 6.9% 737 50.9% (662) 75 5.2% (6) 68 FY24 1,443 -0.3% 753 52.2% (678) 75 5.2% (6) 69 EBITDA post exceptionals 55 3 2 34 94 (18) 30 4 2 38 75 (7) 54 4 2 45 105 1 70 4 2 50 126 (5) 64 4 2 53 123 Adjust for non-cash exceptionals Capex Acquisition Tax Interest Working Capital Dividend Other 0 (36) (9) (18) (3) 6 (37) 0 0 (51) (9) (9) (4) 16 (24) 0 (50) 0 (11) (4) 15 (24) (5) 24 (50) 0 (12) (4) 11 (24) (5) 0 (50) 0 (12) (4) 4 (24) (5) Net Cash flow (3) 43 (6) 27 26 50 65 89 31 55 (82) (85) 0.9x (85) (91) 1.0x (91) (65) 0.6x (65) 0 (0.0x) 0 32 (0.2x) Revenue YoY growth % GP $ GM% Opex Operating profit Operating margin % Interest and Amortisation Group PBT (Underlying) FY20 1,149 Exceptionals Group PBT post exceptionals Add back: Interest Add back: Amortisation Add back: Depreciation Free Cash Flow Opening Net Debt Closing Net Debt Net debt : EBITDA Income statement Actuals CMD case March YE ($mm) 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E Total revenue Management case % forecast growth 939.7 1,004.9 1,021.5 1,095.0 1,135.1 1,138.6 0.0 EBITDA Management case % growth % forecast margin 101.1 109.9 114.6 108.7 109.5 98.2 n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) Depreciation and amortisation % growth % capex % margin (23.3) n.a. 76.6% 2.5% (25.3) 8.6% 67.5% 2.5% (30.1) 19.0% 74.7% 2.9% (31.6) 5.0% 87.5% 2.9% (34.9) 10.4% 93.6% 3.1% (36.0) 3.2% 116.1% 3.2% 77.8 n.a. 8.3% 84.6 8.7% 8.4% 84.5 (0.1%) 8.3% 77.1 (8.8%) 7.0% 74.6 (3.2%) 6.6% #VALUE! (100.0%) EBIT % growth % margin % tax rate x 2021E Net income % growth % margin #VALUE! 2022E #VALUE! n.a. #VALUE! Extrapolations 2023E #VALUE! n.a. #VALUE! 2024E #VALUE! n.a. #VALUE! 2025E #VALUE! n.a. #VALUE! 2026E #VALUE! 2027E #VALUE! 2028E #VALUE! 2029E #VALUE! 2030E #VALUE! 2.0% #VALUE! 1.0% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 9.0% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. 0.0 n.a. #DIV/0! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.0 n.a. 95.0% #VALUE! 62.2 (16.6%) 5.5% #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. 19.0% 19.0% 17.0% 55.5 n.a. 5.9% 65.8 18.6% 6.5% 64.9 (1.4%) 6.4% 59.5 (8.3%) 5.4% 58.4 (1.8%) 5.1% 48.3 (17.3%) 4.2% 44.5 (7.9%) n.a. 39.9 (10.3%) n.a. 60.5 51.6% n.a. 68.5 13.2% n.a. 68.7 0.3% n.a. Capex % growth % sales % Cash conversion (30.4) n.a. 3.2% 69.9% (37.5) 23.4% 3.7% 65.9% (40.3) 7.5% 3.9% 64.8% (36.1) (10.4%) 3.3% 66.8% (37.3) 3.3% 3.3% 65.9% (31.0) (16.9%) 2.7% 68.4% (100.0%) n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. n.a. #VALUE! Change in Working Capital % growth % sales (5.3) n.a. (0.6%) 25.1 (573.6%) 2.5% (11.2) (144.6%) (1.1%) (16.3) 45.5% (1.5%) (12.6) (22.7%) (1.1%) (10.4) (17.5%) (0.9%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. #VALUE! n.a. 0.0% #VALUE! n.a. 0.0% #VALUE! n.a. 0.0% #VALUE! n.a. 0.0% #VALUE! n.a. 0.0% #VALUE! n.a. 0.0% Other Cashflows % growth % sales n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.0% (1.5) n.a. 0.1% 0.7 (149.3%) (0.1%) (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Exceptional items % growth % sales n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.0% n.a. 0.0% 0.0 n.a. 0.0% 0.0 n.a. 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. 0.0 n.a. n.a. Cashflow statement Summary financials March Y/E 2014A 2015A 2016A 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E Revenue 940 1,005 1,022 1,095 1,135 % growth n.a. 6.9% 1.7% 7.2% 3.7% 1,139 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0.3% (100.0%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. EBITDA 101 110 115 109 n.a. 110 98 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! % growth n.a. 8.7% 4.3% (5.1%) 0.7% (10.3%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. % margin #VALUE! 10.8% 10.9% 11.2% 9.9% 9.6% 8.6% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! D&A (23) (25) (30) (32) (35) (36) #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! % of revenue (2.5%) (2.5%) (2.9%) (2.9%) (3.1%) (3.2%) #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! % of capex 76.6% 67.5% 74.7% 87.5% 93.6% 116.1% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! EBIT 78 85 85 77 75 62 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! % growth n.a. 8.7% (0.1%) (8.8%) (3.2%) (16.6%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. % margin 8.3% 8.4% 8.3% 7.0% 6.6% 5.5% #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! EBITDA 101 110 115 109 110 98 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! Capex (30) (38) (40) (36) (37) (31) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 % revenue 3.2% 3.7% 3.9% 3.3% 3.3% 2.7% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. Change in NWC % revenue Other Cashflows % revenue Exceptional items % revenue (5) 25 (11) (16) (13) (10) 0 0 0 0 0 #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! (0.6%) 2.5% (1.1%) (1.5%) (1.1%) (0.9%) #DIV/0! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! #VALUE! 0 0 0 0 (2) 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% (0.1%) n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. n.a. DCF Key assumptions Transaction date Next financial YE Perpetuity growth rate TV exit EBITDA multiple WACC used for sensitivity analysis 31-Mar-20 31-Mar-21 <<< Put down the assumptions after discussing with your senior Below fill in the blanks by linking from the Financials tab update formula, growth is expressed vs previous year and margin is vs sales update as noted DCF FCF Calculation Stub period Stub factor (731) 1 (366) 1 Actuals March YE ($mm) 0 1 365 0 730 0 1,095 0 1,461 0 1,826 0 2,191 0 2,556 0 2,922 0 3,287 0 3,652 0 Estimates 2017A 2018A 2019A 2020E 2021E 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 2029E 2030E 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Revenue % growth EBITDA % margin % growth D&A % sales % of capex EBIT % margin % growth Tax % tax rate << EBIT*tax rate EBIAT % margin % growth << EBIT+tax D&A 0.0 Capex % sales % D&A Change in working capital % sales Other Cashflows % sales Exceptional items % sales FCF 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 <<add EBIT+D&A+Capex(-ve)+Change in WC (-ve)+other cashflows + Stub period FCF for discounting 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Days to cashflow Discount factor 0 1.0 365 1.0 731 1.0 1,096 1.0 1,461 1.0 1,826 1.0 2,192 1.0 2,557 1.0 2,922 1.0 3,287 1.0 3,653 1.0 Terminal value Perpetuity growth portion Exit EBITDA multiple Perpetuity growth method #DIV/0! 0.0 Exit EBITDA multiple method Present value PV of FCF PV of Terminal Value Enterprise value Net debt & adjustments Equity value Share price % premium to current ($m) 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! (84.6) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! (%) Present value PV of FCF PV of Terminal Value Enterprise value Net debt & adjustments Equity value Share price % premium to current #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! ($m) 0.0 0.0 0.0 (84.6) (84.6) (42.5) -125.8% (%) #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Sensitivity analysis Spread rates and step-up Perpetuity growth rate WACC Perptuity growth rate step-up WACC step-up EBITDA multiple step-up 0.0% WACC step-up Perpetuity growth rate analysis EBITDA multiple analysis Enterprise value ($m) WACC (%) Perpetuity growth rate (%) #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Enterprise value ($m) WACC (%)Exit EBITDA multiple (x) 0 0.0x 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.0% 0 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Offer price (p) WACC (%)Exit EBITDA multiple (x) (42.5) 0.0x 0.0% (43) 0.0% (43) 0.0% (43) 0.0% (43) 0.0% (43) Offer price (p) WACC (%) Perpetuity growth rate (%) #DIV/0! 0.00% 0.00% 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Summary financials March YE ($mm) EBITDA % margin D&A % of capex EBIT % margin Tax Tax rate EBIAT +D&A + Maintenance capex +Change in working capital + Exceptional cash flows + Other cash flows FCF EBITDA multiple WACC 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.00% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0x 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0x 0 0 0 0 0 0.0x 0 0 0 0 0 0.0x 0 0 0 0 0 0.0x (43) (43) (43) (43) (43) 0.0x (43) (43) (43) (43) (43) 0.0x (43) (43) (43) (43) (43) 0.0x (43) (43) (43) (43) (43) 2017A 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2018A 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2019E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2020E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2021E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2022E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2023E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2024E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2025E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2026E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2027E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2028E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2029E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2030E 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 #DIV/0! 0.0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 DCF output Summary financials and cashflow DCF Forecast Year Mar YE ($m) 0 1 2020E 2021E 0 0 Revenue % growth #DIV/0! EBITDA 0 % margin #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! % growth #DIV/0! D&A 0 % of revenue #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! % of capex #DIV/0! EBIT 0 % margin #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! Tax on EBIT 0 % tax rate 0.0% Capex 0 % of revenue #DIV/0! Change in NWC 0 Other Cashflows 0 % of revenue #DIV/0! Exceptional items 0 % of revenue #DIV/0! Unlevered free cash flow 0 Cashflow Timing (Years to Discount) 1 1.00 Discount Factor Discounted DCF cashflows 0 Net Present Value based on Perpetuity Growth Method Present Value of Cashflows Amount % of ($m) NPV 0 #DIV/0! PV of Terminal Value #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Implied Firm NPV #DIV/0! #DIV/0! Sensitising firm value ($m) an WACC (%) Value Based on 0.0% WACC & 0.0% TGR (85) Implied equity value #DIV/0! Implied share price ($c) #DIV/0! % premium to current #DIV/0! WACC (%) Net debt & adjustments 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E 2026E 2027E 2028E 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 nsitising firm value ($m) and implied offer price to WACC and TGR Perpetuity Growth Rate (%) 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0.0% #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 9 10 2029E 2030E 0 0 #DIV/0! TV #DIV/0! 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 0 0.0% 0.0% 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 0 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 #DIV/0! 0 0 9 10 1.00 1.00 0 0 #DIV/0! #DIV/0!
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