1. Introduction
Pakistan and Afghanistan share deep historical, cultural, and geographic ties, connected by the
~2,670 km Durand Line border. Their relations have seen phases of close cooperation and severe
friction—shaped by migration, insurgency, resource disputes, and shifting strategic alignments.
2. Historical Background
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1947–2001: Pakistan hosted waves of Afghan refugees after the Soviet invasion and
during Taliban rule. Traditionally, both countries had close ties, with ideological and
tribal overlaps.
Post-2001: Pakistan supported U.S.–led operations in Afghanistan; however trust eroded
due to accusations of Pakistan backing the Taliban insurgency.
2021 onwards: The Taliban’s return to power marked a new era of ambivalent
relations—initial optimism followed by rising tensions due to militant spillovers and
refugee policy conflicts.
3. Strategic & Security Dimension
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Border barrier: Pakistan has completed fencing about 2,640 km of the Durand Line
(1,268 km in Balochistan; 1,343 km in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) with fortifications, razor
wire, and watchtowers to curb infiltration and narcotics trafficking.
Cross-border terrorism: Pakistan consistently accuses Afghanistan of harboring TTP
militants. In early 2025, Islamabad reported 521 attacks with nearly 1,000 casualties
(security personnel plus civilians).
Pakistan-led crackdowns and deportations: Since late 2023, Pakistan forcibly deported
nearly 844,499 Afghans (including activists and refugees), citing national security. Many
face threats under Taliban rule on return.
4. Economic & Connectivity Dimension
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Trade revival: High-level trade talks resumed in April 2025 after a year pause. PakistanAfghan trade in the first eight months of fiscal 2025 jumped: exports increased 84% to
$593 million, imports to $18 million.
Transit frameworks: Discussions included making Torkham port operational 24/7,
allowing heavy vehicles at Ghulam Khan, facilitating export of Afghan coal, improving
customs, and streamlining transit documentation.
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Khyber Pass Economic Corridor (KPEC): A World Bank–backed $482.7 million
initiative to upgrade the Peshawar–Torkham expressway, link it into Afghan motorway
plans to Kabul–Dushanbe, boosting trade with Central Asia.
Proposed railway link: Plans for a 573 km Uzbekistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan rail
corridor from Tashkent through Kabul to Peshawar are under development—estimated
cost $4.8 billion—to reduce transport time by five days.
CPEC expansion: China is facilitating inclusion of Afghanistan into CPEC, with
planned Peshawar–Kabul highway, trade zones, and financial assistance for rail links
connecting Pakistan–Afghanistan–Uzbekistan.
5. Diplomatic & Political Dimension
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Normalize ties: In May 2025, both countries agreed to elevate diplomatic relations to
ambassador-level—Pakistan appointed an ambassador to Kabul and Afghanistan
reciprocated in Islamabad.
Beijing trilateral breakthrough: In May, mediated by China, Pakistan’s FM Ishaq Dar,
Afghanistan’s Acting FM Muttaqi, and Chinese FM met in Beijing. They reaffirmed
commitments on counter-terrorism (particularly curbing TTP), connectivity, trade, and
extending CPEC to include Afghanistan.
High-level contacts continue: On May 6, Dar and Muttaqi held another call,
emphasizing security, trade, refugee issues, and implementation of Kabul visit decisions.
A Pakistani invitation was extended for a follow-up Afghan visit .
6. Current Developments & Examples (2025)
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Diplomatic upgrade formalized: Islamabad elevated its charge d’affaires to ambassador
in May 2025, signaling thaw and readiness for deeper engagement across sectors
Forced repatriations: Pakistan has deported nearly 1 million Afghan nationals by
mid-2025, including many women activists at risk under Taliban rule. Iran expelled
another 1.1 million Afghans too, overwhelming support systems.
Border security escalated: Despite deportations, militants’ cross-border attacks surged
in early 2025, leading Pakistan to reinforce its fence and increase border surveillance .
7. Summary Table
Dimension
Historical
Key Developments & Trends
Decades of refugee flows and shifting alignments; Taliban era increases mutual
suspicion.
Dimension
Key Developments & Trends
Border fencing nearly complete; TTP cross-border attacks spike; Pakistan
Security
demands Afghan action.
Trade resumption, transit facilitation, corridor projects (KPEC, rail), CPEC
Economic
inclusion discussions.
Ambassador-level relations restored; regular high-level contacts mediated by
Diplomatic
China.
Mass deportations of Afghans causing international concern; rights advocates
Humanitarian
alarmed.
8. Outlook: Opportunities & Risks
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Connectivity & Development: Infrastructure projects (KPEC, rail corridor, CPEC
extension) could anchor Afghanistan into regional trade, providing jobs and boosting
Pakistan’s transit potential.
Security dependency: Progress hinges on Taliban action against TTP and militant
groups; continued attacks or inaction could stall economic and diplomatic normalization.
Refugee crisis escalation: Forced deportations strain Kabul’s capacities; human rights
concerns may invite global scrutiny, complicating bilateral goodwill.
China as linchpin: Beijing remains the key mediator and financier—Pakistan and
Afghanistan’s rapprochement reflects China’s rising diplomatic influence.
Conclusion
Pakistan–Afghanistan relations in mid-2025 are witnessing a marked diplomatic reset—
symbolized by upgraded representation and connectivity agreements—yet remain fragile due to
unresolved security threats, humanitarian crises, and intra-Taliban divisions. If counter-terrorism
commitments are honored and infrastructure projects proceed, the region could open a new
chapter of stability and shared prosperity—else tensions may resurface rapidly.