THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE
FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
21ST ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT
SINGAPORE, 31 MAY–2 JUNE 2024
IISS
Shangri-La
Dialogue
THE INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTE
FOR STRATEGIC STUDIES
21ST ASIA SECURITY SUMMIT
SINGAPORE, 31 MAY–2 JUNE 2024
IISS
Shangri-La
Dialogue
The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Arundel House | 6 Temple Place | London | wc2r 2pg | UK
www.iiss.org
© December 2024 The International Institute for Strategic Studies
Executive Chairman: Sir John Chipman KCMG
All rights reserved. No part of this book may be reprinted or reproduced or
Director-General and Chief Executive: Dr Bastian Giegerich
utilised in any form or by any electronic, mechanical, or other means, now
Editor: Veerle Nouwens
known or hereafter invented, including photocopying and recording, or in
Contributors: Nick Childs, Aaron Connelly, Paul Fraioli, Nigel
any information storage or retrieval system, without permission in writing
Gould-Davies, James Hackett, Emile Hokayem, Antoine Levesques,
from the Institute.
Fenella McGerty, Morgan Michaels, Meia Nouwens, John Raine,
Virpratap Vikram Singh, Robert Ward
Editorial: Alice Aveson, Christopher Harder, Gráinne Lucey-Tremblay
Production and Design: Alessandra Beluffi, Ravi Gopar,
Charlotte Gurr, James Lemon, Jade Panganiban, James Parker,
Kelly Verity, Jill Williams
Printed and bound in Great Britain by Hobbs the
Printers Ltd, Hampshire.
The International Institute for Strategic Studies is an independent
centre for research, information and debate on the problems
of conflict, however caused, that have, or potentially have, an
important military content. The Council and Staff of the Institute
are international and its membership is drawn from over 90
countries. The Institute is independent and it alone decides what
activities to conduct. It owes no allegiance to any government,
any group of governments or any political or other organisation.
The IISS stresses rigorous research with a forward-looking policy
orientation and places particular emphasis on bringing new
perspectives to the strategic debate.
Contents
Foreword . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5
Introduction . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 7
Chapter 1
Keynote address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11
Chapter 2
First plenary session
United States’ strategic partnerships in the Indo-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 15
Chapter 3
Second plenary session
Enhancing crisis management amid rising competition . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19
Chapter 4
Third plenary session
Building cooperative security in the Asia-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 25
Chapter 5
Special address . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 31
Chapter 6
Fourth plenary session
Cross-regional security order challenges . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35
Chapter 7
Simultaneous special sessions
Session 1
Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 42
Session 2
Defence cooperation and small state security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 44
Session 3
Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different visions for peace . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 46
Session 4
Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 48
Session 5
AI, cyber defence and future warfare . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 50
Session 6
Coordinating global humanitarian operations . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 52
Chapter 8
Reception and dinner hosted by the president . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55
Chapter 9
Fifth plenary session
China’s approach to global security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 59
Chapter 10
Sixth plenary session
Connecting Indian Ocean and Pacific security . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 63
Chapter 11
Seventh plenary session
Re-imagining solutions for global peace and regional stability . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 67
Chapter 12
The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 73
Appendices
I. Selected digital engagement and media coverage of the 2024 IISS Shangri-La Dialogue . . . . . . . 77
II. Selected IISS publications . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 90
FOREWORD
The International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS)
plenary address on the need for new solutions for global
held its 21st annual Shangri-La Dialogue (SLD) in
security. We welcomed 581 delegates, including 32 gov-
Singapore from 31 May to 2 June 2024. We are pleased
ernment ministers, 25 chiefs of defence and five national
to present this report detailing the Dialogue’s on-the-
security advisers. The Dialogue was attended by 50
record proceedings, including all plenary and special
national delegations and three international organisa-
sessions, as well as the discussions of the Southeast
tions. Hundreds of government meetings took place on
Asian Young Leaders’ Programme (SEAYLP).
the sidelines of the Dialogue, of which the IISS facilitated
For over two decades, the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
over 90. We also welcomed 40 SEAYLP delegates from
has offered a platform for dialogue amongst defence
21 countries in the Asia-Pacific and beyond who actively
ministers and officials, senior military officials and
engaged in the Dialogue’s public sessions and organised
other distinguished delegates from national security
discussions with senior officials.
establishments on the pressing issues in the Asia-
As ever, the IISS is grateful to the Singapore govern-
Pacific. These public engagements are complemented
ment for its support for the SLD process. This includes
by defence diplomacy in action through the wealth of
the annual IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Sherpa Meeting,
private bilateral and multilateral defence meetings that
which will next convene from 19 to 21 January 2025.
take place at the Dialogue and in many cases advance
We would like to thank the following lead com-
and prepare concrete initiatives of these governments.
mercial sponsors for their financial support for the
Intensifying great-power competition, the use of
Dialogue: Airbus, BAE Systems, Boeing, Space &
tactics below the threshold of armed conflict, and the
Security, Lockheed Martin, RTX and Saab. We also
interlinkages of conflict and security across regions
extend thanks to principal sponsors Amazon Web
shaped the strategic environment over the past year.
Services,
In his keynote address, President Ferdinand R. Marcos
Northrop Grumman, Oracle, Palantir and Rolls Royce,
Jr of the Philippines underscored the enduring impor-
as well as prime sponsors Accenture, Anduril and
tance of international law as the cornerstone of equality
EDGE Group and main sponsors Asahi Shimbun, Maxar
amongst nations in this turbulent juncture in history.
Intelligence, Rohde & Schwarz and ST Engineering.
In addition to seven plenary sessions, this year’s
The Shangri-La Hotel generously sponsored the
Dialogue included six live-streamed special sessions,
Babcock
International
Group,
Google,
Dialogue’s opening dinner.
featuring defence ministers and senior military leaders,
The IISS looks forward to further developing these
which spanned an array of focused deliberations on
partnerships, and making new ones, with the shared
topics ranging from artificial intelligence, cyber defence
aspiration of advancing regional security dialogue and
and future warfare to deterrence and reassurance in
cooperation through the Shangri-La Dialogue process.
the Asia-Pacific. Reflecting the region’s contemporary
We look forward to welcoming delegates to Singapore
maritime challenges, the Dialogue included for the
for the 22nd IISS Shangri-La Dialogue from 30 May to
first time a dedicated special session on maritime law
1 June 2025.
enforcement, featuring the heads of coast guards and
the maritime security agencies of four nations.
Dr Bastian Giegerich,
The 2024 Dialogue received four heads of state from
IISS Director-General and Chief Executive
within and outside the region. Ukraine’s President
Veerle Nouwens,
Volodymyr Zelenskyy delivered a powerful in-person
IISS–Asia Executive Director

5
INTRODUCTION
The 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue convened amidst
from the most important countries in the Asia-Pacific
a continued deterioration of the security situation in
and beyond. Moreover, it is unique in the way that it
Europe and the Middle East and apprehension that geo-
brings experts, industry and media into the room for
political rivalry could spark conflict in the Asia-Pacific
discussions in plenary and special sessions.
as well. An impassioned keynote address opening the
As in years past, the IISS worked to make sure that
summit by the president of the Philippines, Ferdinand
the Dialogue remained an open and inclusive forum
R. Marcos Jr, highlighted the risks. Marcos warned
for regional discussion, providing a useful platform
that the rules-based order in Asia required reaffirma-
for participants regardless of regional or geopolitical
tion by the countries of the region rather than revision
positions. The Dialogue served as a mechanism for
– and outlined the Philippine efforts in that regard. Yet
transparency, inviting governments to outline their
in response to questions from delegates, the president
defence policies and highlight immediate security
warned about the risks of crossing the Philippines’ red
concerns. The SLD also maintained its role as a forum
lines. The death of a Filipino citizen by a ‘wilful act’, he
where defence leaders could develop new channels of
said, could be considered an ‘act of war’.
communication and cooperation through bilateral and
Russia’s illegal war of aggression in Ukraine took
other meetings, including a marked increase in the
centre stage when Ukrainian President Volodymyr
number of minilateral gatherings on the sidelines of
Zelenskyy addressed the seventh plenary session. His
the Dialogue. Notably, American and Chinese defence
arrival at the Shangri-La Hotel, where he was wel-
ministers met in person for the first time in 18 months.
comed by IISS Director-General and Chief Executive
This year’s Dialogue featured a special address
Dr Bastian Giegerich, came two years after he delivered
by Indonesian president-elect and Defence Minister
a special address to the 19th Dialogue by video from
General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto. His speech took
Kyiv. His appearance showed the enduring relevance
place in addition to the traditional keynote address
of the Shangri-La Dialogue as a forum for discussion
and seven themed plenary sessions, which provided
of Asia’s role in the world’s most pressing security
defence ministers the opportunity to speak to fellow
challenges. On his second visit to Asia since Russia’s
security decision-makers as well as select analysts,
full-scale invasion of Ukraine began in February 2022,
business leaders and journalists. As in 2023, the IISS
Zelenskyy made the case for Ukraine’s importance
also held a series of six special sessions, where del-
to the Asia-Pacific, and he argued for Asian countries
egates met in a roundtable format to discuss specific
to participate in a peace summit that took place in
issues of pressing concern in greater depth. Finally,
Switzerland later in June.
the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue Southeast Asian Young
Leaders’ Programme convened for the seventh time,
and the 40 young leaders from around the region
AN EXPANDED AGENDA
played a full part in the Dialogue itself.
The Shangri-La Dialogue remains the only annual meet-
While the IISS conventionally does not set an
ing to bring together defence ministers, chiefs of defence
overarching theme for the summit, several themes
forces and leaders of defence civil-service organisations
emerged from speeches and discussions. Marcos
Introduction
7
(From left) Maj. Gen. Salman Al-Harbi, Undersecretary of the Ministry of
Defense for Strategic Affairs, Saudi Arabia; Heidi Grant, former director
of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency, US; Dr Charles Woodburn,
Group Chief Executive Officer of BAE Systems, UK
(From left) Judith Collins, Minister of Defence, New Zealand; Pio Tikoduadua,
Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji; Heng Chee How, Senior
Minister of State for Defence, Singapore
discussed tensions between the Philippines and
concern over the integrity
China over Second Thomas Shoal in the South China
international order. Some, like Marcos, sought to rally
Sea obliquely in his keynote address, and then more
leaders in attendance to defend it. Others questioned
directly during the question-and-answer session.
its legitimacy given suggested inconsistencies in the
The following morning, United States Secretary of
international response to crises in Gaza, Myanmar
Defense Lloyd J. Austin III was asked whether he
and even New Caledonia. Delegates from countries
also held that a wilful act which resulted in the death
of the Global South asked speakers whether the West
of a Filipino citizen would trigger the United States’
had not engaged in a double standard, upholding the
obligations to the Philippines under their 1951
rules-based order in Ukraine while failing to do so in
Mutual Defense Treaty. Although Austin declined
Gaza amid Israel’s war against Hamas.
of the rules-based
to answer the question, concerns that an incident in
The Dialogue’s special sessions covered a range
the South China Sea could escalate into great-power
of additional subjects, including how to fine-tune
conflict between the US and China pervaded conver-
strategies of deterrence and reassurance; defence
sations throughout the remainder of the Dialogue.
cooperation and small-state security; opportunities
Another flashpoint which received considerable
for diplomacy in the Myanmar conflict; maritime law
attention was the Taiwan Strait. Chinese Minister
enforcement and confidence-building measures; the
of National Defense Admiral Dong Jun focused on
future of warfare amid technological change including
Taiwan in his response to questions from the floor, and
advances in artificial intelligence; and the challenges
like his predecessors used strong language against
of coordinating global humanitarian operations.
those in Taiwan he alleged were seeking independence
and those outside Taiwan he said were urging them
on. Many of his counterparts urged both sides to act
ENHANCED PARTICIPATION
with restraint and seek a diplomatic solution, with
The 21st SLD featured the highest-level slate of speak-
Singapore Defence Minister Dr Ng Eng Hen warn-
ers in the Dialogue’s history. While there were 571
ing that neither Asia nor the world could withstand ‘a
delegates in 2023, there were 581 this year. As in prior
third geopolitical shock’.
years, more than half were senior officials and officers
Another theme, raised by both speakers from
from 50 participating governments and three inter-
the rostrum and delegates from the floor, revealed
governmental organisations. These included senior
8
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
officials from many countries around the Asia-Pacific
Institute’s assistance. Some, such as that between
traditionally represented at the Dialogue – but also
Austin and Admiral Dong, will have an appreciable
from a growing number of governments in Europe
effect on the international relations of the region.
and the Middle East, which recognise the weight that
Others, such as that between General Prabowo
Asian positions carry on issues of concern to them.
and Dr Ramos-Horta show the value of diplomacy
Although the Dialogue is traditionally a forum for
between senior leaders. The two, General Prabowo
defence ministers, the inclusion of multiple heads of
told delegates, ‘were walking hand in hand’ the
state or government is a recent evolution of the format.
previous day, an unthinkable outcome when Timor
The appearance at this year’s Dialogue, in addition
was fighting for its independence from Indonesia a
to Marcos and Zelenskyy, of Dr José Ramos-Horta,
quarter-century ago.
President of Timor-Leste, and Prime Minister Ingrida
The Dialogue is primarily a ‘Track One’ meeting,
Šimonytė of Lithuania – not to mention General
where speaking roles are reserved for government offi-
Prabowo and four deputy prime ministers – elevated
cials. But the Dialogue also welcomes many high-level
discussions to the level of national leadership to a
non-government participants each year, including
greater extent than in previous years.
senior business figures, analysts and journalists. The
The Dialogue retained a strong core of participation
SLD played host to more than 300 journalists. The
from defence ministers, with 32 cabinet ministers repre-
gender balance among experts and researchers who
sented, along with 25 chiefs of defence forces, and five
accepted the invitation of the IISS to participate in this
national security advisers. Many were relatively new
year’s Dialogue was approximately 60% male and 40%
in post and attending their first Shangri-La Dialogue,
female, in line with the previous year.
including the following: Admiral Dong; Japanese
Defense Minister Kihara Minoru; South Korean Defense
Minister Shin Won-sik; Cambodian Deputy Prime
LOOKING AHEAD
Minister and Minister for National Defence General Tea
The IISS looks forward to building upon the success of
Seiha; Thai Defence Minister Sutin Klungsang; New
this year’s Dialogue. We are already moving toward
Zealand Defence Minister Judith Collins; Canadian
organising the 22nd Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore
Minister of National Defence Bill Blair; and Malaysian
from 30 May to 1 June 2025. In preparation, from 19
Defence Minister Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin
to 21 January 2025, we will hold the 13th Shangri-La
Nordin. This provided a useful opportunity to meet
Dialogue Sherpa Meeting, which will convene in
many counterparts for the first time.
Singapore senior defence officials and military offic-
In total, the IISS facilitated 91 bilateral meetings
ers from participating countries to discuss the region’s
at the Dialogue, but it understands that many more
developing security issues and shape the agenda for
took place on the sidelines of sessions without the
the next Dialogue.
Introduction
9
CHAPTER 1
KEYNOTE ADDRESS
Friday 31 May 2024, 20:00
SPEAKER
Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr
President, Philippines
Keynote address
Philippines President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr began
threatened by weakening international norms; sec-
by setting out the ways that international law under-
ondly, strategic competition between the United States
pins Philippine sovereignty. In particular, the 1982
and China, and its impact on regional states’ secu-
United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea
rity choices and dilemmas; thirdly, the centrality and
(UNCLOS) enshrined the principle of archipelagic
unity of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations
unity that defined the internal waters of states. It
(ASEAN); fourthly, the role of bridge-builders in forg-
also established the extent and limits of states’ mari-
ing multilateral solutions; fifthly, access to the global
time zones. The Philippines, he told the audience, has
commons of sea, space and science for development;
aligned its domestic laws and constitution with its
sixthly, the urgent challenge of climate change; sev-
international legal rights.
enthly, the disruptive and transformative impact of
By contrast, he said, some actors sought to pursue
advanced technologies.
excessive and baseless claims through force, intimida-
To address these challenges, Marcos called for reaf-
tion and deception. Marcos noted the importance of the
firmation rather than revision of the regional order
2016 arbitral award supporting the Philippines’ mari-
based on the agreements that created the UN, ASEAN
time claims in the West Philippine Sea. He underscored
and UNCLOS. These enshrined principles of the
his country’s absolute commitment to protecting its
sovereign equality of states, ASEAN centrality, inter-
sovereignty and upholding the rule of law.
national law and multilateralism, rather than the use
Against the background of growing threats to the
of force, major-power rivalry and spheres of interest.
international rules-based order, Marcos identified
He argued that China’s influence is a permanent secu-
seven issues shaping the Indo-Pacific region: firstly,
rity and economic fact, and that the US is a stabilising
the aspirations of states in the region, which were
presence. Regional stability requires that they manage
Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr,
President, Philippines
12
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Sir John Chipman KCMG,
IISS Executive Chairman
their relationship responsibly, especially in the nuclear
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
domain. Nuclear risk-reduction and disarmament, he
Major General Xu Hui, the President of the Inter-
told delegates, are increasingly Asia-Pacific, not just
national College of Defense Studies at the National
Euro-Atlantic, issues.
Defense University of China, asked Marcos to comment
On the most urgent issues affecting economic
on the proposition that recent Philippine actions did
security in the region, Marcos called for maritime dif-
not consider other parties’ comfort levels and jeopard-
ferences in the East China Sea and South China Sea
ised regional peace. Marcos reaffirmed the Philippines’
to be resolved according to international law based
commitment to ASEAN centrality and its principles.
on UNCLOS. Regional stability also requires, in the
He argued these are more relevant than ever, given the
Taiwan Strait, mutual restraint and, on the Korean
complex and interdependent nature of geopolitics. He
peninsula, North Korean fulfilment of its obligations
said there are arguably no purely regional issues now.
under United Nations Security Council resolutions
Demetri Sevastopulo, US–China Correspondent
and to commit to peaceful and constructive dialogue
for the Financial Times, asked whether the killing of a
with South Korea.
Marcos
outlined
the
Philippines’
plans
to
strengthen its alliance with the US, as well as strategic partnerships and multilateral cooperation with
a wide range of Indo-Pacific states. The most recent
achievement was the adoption, with Japan and the
US, of a Joint Vision Statement. Middle powers have
a key leadership role to play in transcending geopolitical divisions through multilateral diplomacy.
Marcos drew attention to the Philippines’ activity
on a wide range of issues, including climate change,
biodiversity, cyberspace, lethal autonomous weapons
systems, nuclear non-proliferation and a maritime
code of conduct. He said the Philippines would use its
role as a trusted partner and bridge-builder during its
2027–28 Security Council term to advance these and
other agendas.
Major General Xu Hui, President of the International College of Defense
Studies at the National Defense University of China
Keynote address
13
Demetri Sevastopulo, US–China Correspondent, Financial Times
Justin Baquisal, SEAYLP delegate and Resident National Security Analyst,
FACTS Asia
Filipino sailor by Chinese coastguard water cannons
Justin Baquisal, a SEAYLP delegate and Resident
would cross a red line. He also asked what actions
National Security Analyst at FACTS Asia, asked what
would cause the Philippines to invoke its Mutual
specific force posture packages were expected in the
Defense Treaty with the US. Marcos replied that the
coming years, and what would follow the modernisa-
death of a Filipino citizen by a wilful act would be
tion programme of the Armed Forces of the Philippines.
‘very, very close’ to an act of war that would ‘almost
Marcos referred to the just-completed Horizon 3 acqui-
certainly’ cross a red line. The Philippines would
sition military programme. The country was now
respond accordingly. Its treaty partners, he said,
finding suppliers for its military requirements. Marcos
hold the same standard when deciding to undertake
emphasised the importance of deterrence through
joint action.
building long-term civil and military capabilities.
14
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
CHAPTER 2
United States’ strategic
partnerships in the
Indo-Pacific
FIRST PLENARY SESSION
Saturday 1 June 2024, 08:35
SPEAKER
Lloyd J. Austin III
Secretary of Defense, United States
FIRST PLENARY SESSION
United States’ strategic
partnerships in the Indo-Pacific
Lloyd J. Austin III,
Secretary of Defense, US
US Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III in his
demic disease, nuclear dangers, terrorism and turmoil
opening remarks welcomed the ‘frank discussion’
in the Middle East to Russia’s ‘reckless’ war in Ukraine
that he had at the Dialogue with Admiral Dong Jun,
as well as actions in the Indo-Pacific that erode stabil-
Minister of National Defense for China, in their first
ity. But he countered that a new convergence amongst
face-to-face meeting. Austin reiterated the point he
like-minded states around nearly all aspects of secu-
made at last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue that ‘the right
rity in the Indo-Pacific would produce a ‘stronger,
time for defence leaders to talk is any time and every
more resilient and capable network of partnerships’.
time’. According to Austin, there is no substitute for
This network, Austin told delegates, was unique
direct military-to-military talks between senior leaders
to this region – a set of overlapping and complemen-
and for open lines of communication to avoid misun-
tary initiatives and institutions, rather than a single
derstanding and miscalculations. He said, ‘Dialogue is
alliance, and a move away from the traditional hub-
not a reward. It is a necessity.’ He welcomed future
and-spokes model of American security architecture
talks with the PRC.
in Asia. Austin said the convergence he spoke of is
At the same time, Austin reiterated that American
centred on common principles: respect for sovereignty
engagement with the region is strong and would con-
and international law; the free flow of commerce
tinue because the Indo-Pacific will shape the course
and ideas; freedom of the seas and skies; openness,
of this century. ‘We are all in, and we are not going
transparency and accountability; equal dignity for
anywhere.’ Austin highlighted threats to the global
every person; and the peaceful resolution of disputes
security landscape ranging from climate change, pan-
through dialogue instead of coercion or conflict.
16
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Lloyd J. Austin III,
Secretary of Defense,
US; and Dr Bastian
Giegerich, DirectorGeneral and Chief
Executive, IISS
Austin pointed out that Russia’s war of aggression
against Ukraine provides a vision of the world ‘none of
shown by Indonesia, Malaysia and Vietnam in resolving long-standing maritime-boundary disputes.
us would want’, where the aforementioned principles
have been violated. However, he found that the war in
Ukraine has provided an impetus to other countries to
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
rally together to help the victims of aggression. Austin
Dr Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory
referenced Japanese Prime Minister Kishida Fumio’s
Council and Trustee, asked about US and South Korean
recent visit to the US, in which he said countries must
relations and the prospect of US support for Korean
resolutely defend and strengthen a free and open
development of nuclear-powered submarines for the
international order based on the rule of law.
ROK Navy. Austin responded that the AUKUS initiative
Austin said that, despite significant destabilising
undertaken with Australia and the UK will assist in pro-
activity in Europe and the Middle East, the Indo-Pacific
viding stability and security in the region. However, this
remains the priority theatre of operations for the US,
is a generational investment and it was ‘highly doubtful’
with significant resources invested in the region over
that the US could take on another initiative of this type
the last three years aimed at ensuring stability. Austin
in the near future. Austin reiterated that South Korea is
raised key examples of defence-industrial integration,
a strong ally for the US, and he highlighted the trilateral
including the development of a Glide Phase Intercep-
partnership emerging with Japan as a positive endeavour.
tor with Japan and progress on the co-production of
Ivan Watson, Senior International Correspond-
fighter-jet engines and armoured vehicles with India.
ent for CNN, asked whether the US would interpret
He also highlighted work with the Philippines to
death at sea as an act of war in the context of ongo-
improve maritime domain awareness in the South
ing tensions between the Philippines and China in
China Sea, as well as cooperation with the Quad
the South China Sea, and whether such a develop-
through the Indo-Pacific Partnership for Maritime
ment would invoke the Mutual Defense Treaty. Austin
Domain Awareness.
said US commitment to the Mutual Defense Treaty is
Austin concluded that strong leadership is needed
to sustain progress made so far, commending the
‘ironclad’, and pointed to increasing efforts to develop
dialogue to ensure such a scenario does not arise.
trilateral partnership that has emerged between the
Senior Colonel Cao Yanzhong, Research Fellow
US, Japan and South Korea, as well as the leadership
for the Research Department at the Academy of
First plenary session
17
Dr Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the
Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS
Ivan Watson, Senior International
Correspondent, CNN
Senior Colonel Cao Yanzhong,
Research Fellow for the Research
Department at the Academy of
Military Sciences, China
Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar,
Research Professor at the National
Research and Innovation Agency,
Indonesia
Military Sciences of China, asked whether the US is
US relationship with China is based on competition but
planning to build a NATO-like alliance system in the
should not become contentious. As such, open dialogue
Asia-Pacific region. Austin responded that rather than
is necessary to address issues. As well as engaging in
creating a NATO-like alliance, the aim is to cooperate
dialogue with China, the US will continue work with
and strengthen relationships with like-minded coun-
other countries in the region, such as the Philippines,
tries with similar values and a common vision of a free
to address their concerns regarding access to their eco-
and open Indo-Pacific.
nomic zones. Austin said conflict with China is neither
Professor Dewi Fortuna Anwar, Research Profes-
imminent nor unavoidable, but that leaders of great-
sor at the National Research and Innovation Agency
power nations need to ensure that everything is done
of Indonesia, asked about the state of US–China rela-
to minimise miscalculation and misunderstandings.
tions, particularly in light of strategic competition
Austin conceded that conversations will at times be dif-
between the two countries. Austin reiterated that the
ficult, but it is crucial to have them.
18
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
CHAPTER 3
Enhancing crisis
management amid
rising competition
SECOND PLENARY SESSION
Saturday 1 June 2024, 09:30
SPEAKERS
Dr José Ramos-Horta, President,
Timor-Leste
Sébastien Lecornu,
Minister of the Armed Forces, France
Shin Won-sik,
Minister of National Defense, Republic of Korea
SECOND PLENARY SESSION
Enhancing crisis management
amid rising competition
Dr José Ramos-Horta,
President, Timor-Leste
Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste,
Sébastien Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed
opened the session by noting that, while his own
Forces, noted that France is immediately concerned
country was now at peace, he spoke as a long-time
with crisis management as it prepares to host the
observer of regional and international crises. He noted
Olympic Games, and it is important that nothing be
the importance of the shared crisis of the ‘desecra-
done to hinder existing efforts to manage threats. He
tion of Mother Earth’. In reference to rising tensions
identified three challenges in crisis management. The
in the South China Sea, he said consultations on the
first is the selfishness of narrow nationalisms. The
Code of Conduct should be intensified to help gener-
global security system was designed in a post-con-
ate the trust required to make the sea a ‘zone of peace
flict period when much less was asked of it, given the
and fraternity’. He questioned the consequences of
increase in conflicts and threats. States must not, he
the increased US military presence, drawing compari-
argued, put selfish considerations before preserving,
son with the consequences which he saw of NATO’s
for example, the European political project or inter-
expansion eastwards towards Russia. He noted the
vening in humanitarian disasters such as the recent
tendency of states to overestimate their own capabili-
landslide in Papua New Guinea. This would make the
ties or underestimate those of adversaries. He called
mechanism more sustainable for the future.
for more dialogue and transparency. Where conflicts
Secondly, he argued, selfishness should not
are hot, in particular in Gaza, all parties including
become a strategy. Partnerships should not be aban-
Iran should desist to allow for humanitarian relief and
doned, and France is relying on partnerships in its
reflection on how the conflict can be ended.
counter-terrorism work ahead of the Olympics. It was
20
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Sébastien Lecornu,
Minister of the Armed
Forces, France
criticised for reaching out to Russia after the Crocus
called for universal condemnation of North Korea’s
Hall attack in Moscow, he said, but it decided to share
failure to abide by UN Security Council resolutions.
intelligence with Russia to assist their investigation.
He noted the irresponsibility of the North Korean gov-
Elsewhere, such challenges as illegal fishing and
ernment’s conduct, citing their recent decision to send
organised crime also require partnerships. Technolog-
balloons carrying waste into South Korea in retaliation
ical advances should be shared and states should not
for the balloons carrying food sent by Seoul. The UN,
hinder partnerships developing.
to which South Korea owed its foundation, is critical
Lastly, he told delegates, states should avoid cre-
to security in the region, he said. He added the rules-
ating blocs. France, as a Pacific country, does not see
based international order must be protected from the
blocs as the answer to the region’s problems. Existing
use of force, and he noted his concern that peaceful
multilateral structures should be used to support the
resolution is lately losing out to force.
universal application of international humanitarian
law and to avoid double standards. A special responsibility lies with nuclear powers to avoid proliferation,
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
and he regretted the lack of effective arms control
Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory
activity in the region.
Council and Trustee, asked whether the law in South
Shin Won-sik, South Korean Defense Minister,
Korea should be changed to allow it to export weap-
noted the intensification of strategic competition in the
ons to Ukraine, and whether the time had come for
Asia-Pacific. He said North Korea continues to develop
South Korea to consider acquiring its own nuclear
its nuclear capabilities and has conducted 12 missile
capability. Shin said changing the law on exports
launches this year. It poses, he said, an existential threat
would require a national consensus. On the second
to South Korea. Moreover, by prioritising expenditure
question, he said Seoul would not go down that road
on its nuclear programme, the regime is aggravating
because it continues to place its trust in its alliance
the human-rights crisis among its own population.
with the United States and the international nuclear
The minister told delegates that all crises arose from
non-proliferation regime.
dictatorships. Russia is using North Korean weap-
Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the Indo-
ons in Ukraine and the funds North Korea receives
Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund, asked
in return will be spent on its nuclear programme. He
what positive measure the panel would like to see
Second plenary session
21
Shin Won-sik,
Defense Minister,
Republic of Korea
from China to promote denuclearisation. Shin called
panel members for their views on Russia–North Korea
for China to play a more proactive role in denucleari-
nuclear cooperation. Shin noted that 10,000 containers
sation and regretted the absence of any reference to
have been exchanged between the two countries and
denuclearisation in recent ASEAN communiqués. In
North Korea has received food and military technology
reference to a related question, he also noted grave
which could significantly enhance its capabilities. The
concern over tripartite cooperation between China,
US and South Korea are working on countermeasures.
North Korea and Russia and the potential conse-
Darshana Baruah, nonresident scholar with the
quences thereof.
South Asia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for
Nigel Gould-Davies, IISS Senior Fellow for Russia
International Peace, asked about next steps on New
and Eurasia, asked how North Korea is benefiting
Caledonia given divergent views between France and
from supplying Russia with military equipment and
states in the region. Lecornu said New Caledonia is
ammunition. Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board,
in a post-colonial state. The French government has
Japan Bank for International Cooperation, asked the
honoured its undertakings in the decolonisation plan
Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the
Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS
Nigel Gould-Davies, Senior Fellow
for Russia and Eurasia, IISS
22
Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director
of the Indo-Pacific program at the
German Marshall Fund, US
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Maeda Tadashi, Chairman
of the Board, Japan Bank for
International Cooperation
Darshana Baruah, nonresident
scholar with the South Asia Program
at the Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace
Lieutenant Colonel Ki Mankhout,
SEAYLP delegate, Assistant, Advisor
to the Permanent Secretary of
State for the Ministry of National
Defence, Cambodia
Dr Bich Tran, Postdoctoral Fellow at the
Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy
of the 1990s and held three referenda in which New
of Cambodia, asked whether joining ASEAN would
Caledonia had rejected independence. He said that the
still offer an upside for Timor-Leste. Dr Bich Tran,
violence currently seen in New Caledonia was in part
Postdoctoral Fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of
driven by ‘a young generation that is bored, that has
Public Policy, asked how Timor-Leste would have the
problems with drugs, with alcohol’. They were some-
capacity to attend the many ASEAN meetings con-
times also being manipulated by other countries ‘who
vened each year. Dr Ramos-Horta described ASEAN
are hidden in the world’, he said, and he called for
as one of the most successful multilateral organisa-
these actions to be condemned.
tions in the world. He noted that Timor-Leste has
Lieutenant Colonel Ki Mankhout, a SEAYLP del-
shown the capacity to meet its representative duties in
egate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent
other multilateral organisations, and he was confident
Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence
that it could do so in ASEAN.
Second plenary session
23
CHAPTER 4
Building cooperative
security in the
Asia-Pacific
THIRD PLENARY SESSION
Saturday 1 June 2024, 11:30
SPEAKERS
General Tea Seiha
Deputy Prime Minister; Minister of National
Defense, Cambodia
Richard Marles
Deputy Prime Minister; Minister for Defence, Australia
Josep Borrell Fontelles
High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy;
Vice-President of the European Commission, European Union
THIRD PLENARY SESSION
Building cooperative security
in the Asia-Pacific
General Tea Seiha,
Deputy Prime
Minister and
Minister of National
Defence, Cambodia
General Tea Seiha, Deputy Prime Minister and Min-
defence-education collaborations. Additionally, he
ister of National Defence of Cambodia, opened the
highlighted Cambodia’s commitment to UN peace-
session by emphasising the turbulent security land-
keeping, mentioning the deployment of over 9,500
scape in the Asia-Pacific. He highlighted the rise of
peacekeepers since 2006. General Tea Seiha stressed
interdependence, but also unintentional conflicts and
the importance of respecting the sovereignty and inde-
security concerns from traditional geopolitical com-
pendence of smaller states and reaffirmed Cambodia’s
petition to non-traditional threats including climate
commitment to a rules-based international order.
change and human trafficking. He advocated for
Richard Marles, Australia’s Deputy Prime Minis-
cooperative security and multilateralism, particularly
ter and Minister for Defence, discussed the new era
through ASEAN, which Cambodia views as pivotal
of strategic competition reshaping the Indo-Pacific,
in promoting peace, development and prosperity.
stressing the importance of the global rules-based
General Tea Seiha underscored ASEAN’s approach to
order. He highlighted recent conflicts, including
resolving issues, including South China Sea disputes
the Israel–Hamas conflict and Russia’s war against
and the situation in Myanmar, through dialogue and
Ukraine, as significant threats to global stability.
consultation. He recounted Cambodia’s contribu-
Marles called for an immediate humanitarian cease-
tions to ASEAN, including initiatives on pandemic
fire and hostage release in Gaza. He emphasised the
cooperation, support for women peacekeepers, and
need to uphold international law universally and for
26
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Richard Marles,
Deputy Prime Minister
and Minister for
Defence, Australia
collective deterrence to maintain a sustainable bal-
cyber security, maritime security and counter-terrorism.
ance of power in the Indo-Pacific. Australia’s defence
Borrell called for consistency in upholding international
strategy calls for nearly doubling its defence spend-
law and avoiding double standards, particularly in rela-
ing in the coming decade, to reach roughly 2.4% of
tion to Gaza. He emphasised the importance of learning
GDP, and deepening alliances with countries includ-
from Asia’s innovation and working together to build
ing India, Japan and the US. Marles also advocated
a cooperative security framework, thereby enhancing
for strengthening ASEAN’s role and developing new
mutual security and prosperity.
multilateral frameworks to enhance regional security.
He called for clear communication and strategic reassurance to prevent conflicts and ensure a stable and
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
prosperous region.
Josep Borrell Fontelles, High Representative for For-
Josh Rogin, opinion columnist at the Washington Post,
eign Affairs and Security Policy and Vice-President of the
asked the panel about China’s support for Russia’s
European Commission of the European Union, under-
armed forces and whether the EU plans to sanction
scored the strategic and economic interdependence
China. Borrell said the EU does not have evidence
between Europe and the Indo-Pacific. He highlighted the
of China supplying arms to Russia and that the bloc
region’s importance to European commerce and security
remains vigilant regarding dual-use goods and eco-
– 40% of trade involving Europe crosses the South China
nomic relationships that might circumvent sanctions.
Sea. He also noted the challenges posed by China’s ‘no
Some Chinese firms have faced restrictions, and the
limits’ partnership with Russia and the military support
EU continues to monitor the situation and urges China
that North Korea is providing to Russia in its war against
to use its influence to push Russia to cease its aggres-
Ukraine. Borrell stressed the EU’s commitment to secu-
sion in Ukraine.
rity based on international law and the UN Charter, and
Jennifer Parker, a SEAYLP delegate and Expert
its role as a credible partner in the region. He outlined
Associate at the National Security College of the Aus-
the EU’s strategic initiatives, including partnerships in
tralian National University, asked about Cambodia’s
Third plenary session
27
Josep Borrell Fontelles,
High Representative
for Foreign Affairs
and Security Policy
and Vice-President
of the European
Commission, EU
and ASEAN’s stances on China’s ‘nine-dash line’ in
Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces
the South China Sea. General Tea Seiha reiterated that
and Maritime Security, asked Marles about the
Cambodia supports international law and ASEAN’s
future of AUKUS and its openness and inclusivity.
consultative approach to these issues. He emphasised
Marles explained that while AUKUS Pillar 1 focuses
the importance of dialogue in resolving issues and
on Australia’s
highlighted ASEAN’s role in finding balanced solu-
submarines, Pillar 2 involves collaboration on inno-
tions to regional disputes.
vative military technologies. Expansion to other
acquisition
of
nuclear-powered
Dr Jimbo Ken, Professor of the Faculty of Policy
countries such as Japan will depend on the maturity
Management at Keio University in Japan, asked
of existing collaborations among Australia, the UK
about a future Chinese military presence at Ream
and the US.
Naval Base in Cambodia. General Tea Seiha said
Antoine Levesques, IISS Research Fellow for South
Cambodia does not and will not allow any foreign
and Central Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy,
military bases on its territory, emphasising that
asked Borrell about the effect of the European Defence
military exercises and assistance from China are
Industrial Strategy on partnerships in the Indo-Pacific.
only for training and modernisation. He reiterated
Borrell highlighted the need for Europe to enhance
Cambodia’s commitment to transparency and inter-
its defence-industrial base and technological capa-
national cooperation.
bilities, which would strengthen partnerships in the
Fenella McGerty, IISS Senior Fellow for Defence
Economics, asked the panel about opportunities
Indo-Pacific by providing better support and fostering
stronger relationships.
and challenges in defence-industrial collaboration.
Senior Colonel Ge Hanwen, Associate Profes-
Marles acknowledged the balance between col-
sor at the College of International Studies with
laboration and competition in the defence industry.
China’s National University of Defense Technology,
He stressed the importance of competitive tender-
questioned Australia’s narrative regarding China’s
ing to ensure value for money while fostering joint
actions and commitment to the rule of law and
ventures and partnerships to enhance Australia’s
pointed out that China has not fought a war against
defence capabilities.
neighbouring countries since the end of the Cold
28
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Josh Rogin, opinion columnist,
Washington Post
Jennifer Parker, a SEAYLP delegate
and Expert Associate at the National
Security College of the Australian
National University, Australia
Dr Jimbo Ken, Professor of the
Faculty of Policy Management at
Keio University, Japan
Fenella McGerty, Senior Fellow for
Defence Economics, IISS
Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval
Forces and Maritime Security, IISS
Antoine Levesques, Research Fellow
for South and Central Asian Defence,
Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS
Senior Colonel Ge Hanwen,
Associate Professor at the College
of International Studies with the
National University of Defense
Technology, China
Colin Clark, Indo-Pacific Bureau
Chief, Breaking Defense
War. Marles responded by affirming Australia’s com-
Colin Clark, the Indo-Pacific Bureau Chief at
mitment to the rules-based order, underscoring its
Breaking Defense, asked Marles about direct com-
role in regional peace and economic prosperity. He
munication with China regarding unsafe incidents.
acknowledged the importance of professional and
The minister confirmed that Australia has engaged
safe interactions with the Chinese armed forces while
directly with China about unsafe military conduct
emphasising the need for consistent application of
and reiterated the importance of professional and safe
international law by all countries.
interactions based on the rules-based order.
Third plenary session
29
CHAPTER 5
SPECIAL ADDRESS
Saturday 1 June 2024, 14:45
SPEAKER
General (Retd) Prabowo Subianto
Minister of Defense and president-elect, Indonesia
Special address
General
(Retd)
Prabowo
Subianto,
Indonesian
hospital pending the agreement of all sides. He reit-
Minister of Defense and president-elect, began by
erated Indonesia’s support for a two-state solution.
announcing that the pursuit of peace, stability and
General Prabowo told delegates that he remains
prosperity is the cornerstone of Indonesia’s inter-
convinced that his peace plan for Ukraine, announced
national engagement. He underscored Indonesia is
at the 20th IISS Shangri-La Dialogue in 2023, is ‘logical,
committed to deepening inclusive dialogue and con-
relevant and necessary’. Indonesia views the conflict
crete collaboration and upholding international laws,
with deep sadness, and he urged delegates to not
particularly as pertains to respect for the national
lose sight of the dangers of escalation and the risk of
sovereignty and territorial integrity of all states as
nuclear war.
enshrined in the United Nations Charter.
Turning to the Indo-Pacific, General Prabowo
The president-elect spotlighted conflicts in
reprised his message at the 19th Shangri-La Dialogue
Ukraine and Palestine. He called for an investiga-
in 2022, calling for the leaders of the ‘great Chinese
tion into ‘recent tragic events’ in Rafah, and he
civilisation’ and ‘of the United States and its Western
hailed a proposal by the United States for a ceasefire
allies’ to meet their responsibilities as great powers.
in Gaza. The president-elect highlighted Indonesia’s
He expressed confidence that they could coexist, coop-
willingness to contribute ‘significant peacekeeping
erate and collaborate in pursuit of the common good.
forces’ to maintain and monitor such a ceasefire,
The president-elect closed by noting that while
as well as humanitarian assistance when requested
science and technology could improve livelihoods,
by the UN and medical personnel to operate a field
without wisdom, benevolence and goodwill it could
General (Retd) Prabowo
Subianto, Minister of
Defense and presidentelect, Indonesia
32
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Sir John Chipman KCMG, Executive
Chairman, IISS
Richard Walker, Chief International
Editor, Deutsche Welle
Benedict Weerasena, SEAYLP
delegate and Research Director at
Bait Al-Amanah
Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez,
SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate
at Flinders University
also bring ‘catastrophe’ to the world. He urged that
comment that some countries do not want to listen to
nationalism be tempered by humanity, and patriotism
the opinions of others, and about Indonesia’s respon-
by wisdom and respect for all.
sibilities as a rising power. Iriana Freitas de Jesus
Ximenez, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD Candidate at
Flinders University, asked General Prabowo his posi-
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
tion on negotiations of land and maritime boundaries
Sir John Chipman KCMG, the Executive Chair-
between Indonesia and Timor-Leste.
man of the IISS, asked General Prabowo if Indonesia
General Prabowo responded that Indonesia must
would send a representative to the Summit on Peace in
maintain a policy of non-alignment. He said he would
Ukraine to be hosted by Switzerland two weeks later.
promote a good-neighbour policy, that ‘real secu-
General Prabowo responded good-naturedly and to
rity comes through very good relations between our
some laughter by reminding the chair that he was not
immediate neighbours’ and this is ‘part of our Asian
yet the president of Indonesia, so the question should
culture’. He noted that in his lifetime Indonesia has
be directed to President Joko Widodo.
had conflicts with neighbours Malaysia and Singa-
Richard Walker, Chief International Editor of
pore, but they had resolved their differences and were
Deutsche Welle, asked about concerns that countries
now ‘like brothers’. He noted that for many years he
in the Indo-Pacific would be ‘forced to pick sides’
had been involved in the East Timor conflict, but that
between the US and China. Benedict Weerasena, a
the previous night he and Dr José Ramos-Horta, Presi-
SEAYLP delegate and Research Director at think tank
dent of Timor-Leste, were hugging each other and
Bait Al-Amanah, asked about the president-elect’s
walking hand in hand.
Special address
33
CHAPTER 6
Cross-regional security
order challenges
FOURTH PLENARY SESSION
Saturday 1 June 2024, 15:15
SPEAKERS
Ingrida Šimonytė
Prime Minister, Lithuania
Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah
Deputy Prime Minister;
Minister of State for Defense Affairs, Qatar
Kihara Minoru
Minister of Defense, Japan
FOURTH PLENARY SESSION
Cross-regional security order challenges
Ingrida Šimonytė,
Prime Minister,
Lithuania
Ingrida Šimonytė, Prime Minister of Lithuania,
its recent opening of missions in Australia, Singapore,
opened the session by saying ‘small states matter’
South Korea and Taiwan.
and cooperation is essential. For small states, she said,
Dr Khalid bin Mohammad Al-Attiyah, Deputy
adherence to international law and norms is not a
Prime Minister and Minister of State for Defense
choice but a necessity. Lithuania, as a front-line state
Affairs of Qatar, described Qatar’s approach to cross-
on NATO’s eastern flank, knows this. No nation is an
regional challenges as ‘simple in concept, challenging
‘isolated island’, so a world ‘where imperialistic ambi-
in action and contentious to those who reject change’.
tions of some rule the day’ is one where ‘no one is big
Qatar seeks national development, to uphold the rule
enough’ to avoid aggression, she warned.
of law, and effective communication.
Lithuania spends around 2.0% of its GDP to help
Qatar, Al-Attiyah told delegates, considers states,
Ukraine, which she said needs support ‘without taboos
‘irrespective of size or might’, subject to international
or red lines’. Indo-Pacific countries, too, should help
law. This is why, for Qatar, the International Court of
Ukraine counter Russia’s focus on forming an ‘axis
Justice plays an ‘essential [role] to giving voice to the
of authoritarianism’ with Iran and North Korea. Part-
rights of the Palestinians’. Qatar has a clear position
ners could join Lithuania’s demining coalition or help
on their right to self-determination. For Qatar, he said,
rebuild Ukraine’s infrastructure. Lithuania’s regional
‘any alliance built on the idea of the continued subju-
cyber-defence and countering disinformation initia-
gation of a people is an alliance doomed to failure’.
tives are practical platforms for cooperation. They are
Aside from defence, Qatar concentrates on being an
enabled by Lithuania’s 2023 Indo-Pacific Strategy and
‘ally for peace’ and stable and reliable in its partnerships.
36
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Dr Khalid bin
Mohammad Al-Attiyah,
Deputy Prime Minister
and Minister of State for
Defense Affairs, Qatar
It has a policy of open and consistent communication
in the Middle East Japan sees ‘untapped potential’ for
to ensure that misunderstandings do not arise. Others
greater ties.
could have benefitted from this approach in light of
recent events, he said.
Kihara Minoru, Minister of Defense of Japan, con-
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
cluded the session by arguing that the world faces a
Naw Moo Moo Paw, a SEAYLP delegate and PhD
choice between cooperation and decay of the global
Candidate at the University of Massachusetts Lowell,
order. The risk of cross-regional simultaneous crises
asked how to counter disinformation. Šimonytė said
and inadvertent conflict has significantly increased,
countries can cooperate to better observe ‘patterns’
be it in Europe where the war in Ukraine shook the
across what may appear to be solely internal debates.
‘very foundation of the international order’; in the
Maeda Tadashi, Chairman of the Board, Japan Bank for
Middle East, where Japan has sought to calm the situ-
International Cooperation, asked Šimonytė about her
ation through diplomacy; or in East Asia, where North
concern on Russia–China rapprochement. Šimonytė
Korea’s missile launches, ‘unilateral changes to the
said Lithuania left China’s 17+1 engagement format in
status quo by force or coercion’ in the South China Sea
Europe and is ‘always pushing for a united strategy
and around Taiwan, as well as Russia’s actions, pose
of the European Union vis-à-vis China’. Lithuania, she
serious challenges.
noted, has signed a strategic partnership with Japan
Countries ought to come together to avoid a
and opened several embassies in the region, as well as
worse situation. Japan released a National Security
a representative office of Lithuania in Taipei.
Strategy, a National Defense Strategy and a Defense
Emile Hokayem, IISS Director of Regional Security and
Buildup Program in 2022. Those policies include
Senior Fellow for Middle East Security, asked about
focuses on counter-strike capabilities and defence-
Qatar’s partnerships. Al-Attiyah answered that Qatar
industrial cooperation with the US and through the
feels obligated to help contribute to regional stability
Global Combat Air Programme with Italy and the
and eschews belonging to any bloc. On Gaza, he said
United Kingdom. Japan seeks to enhance situational
that Qatar is working closely with the United States,
awareness through technology, alongside allied and
Egypt and other countries to reach a resolution that ‘eve-
like-minded countries. In Europe, Japan cooperates on
rybody can live with’. Dr Elisabeth Hauschild, Senior
cyber policy and Women, Peace and Security, while
Vice President of Diehl Stiftung & Co. KG, asked about
Fourth plenary session
37
Kihara Minoru, Minister
of Defense, Japan
domestic and regional stability in the context of the
the status quo in both, requiring like-minded part-
war in Gaza. Al-Attiyah said the region seeks stability
nerships. ‘That is why I think we can cooperate
but the Israel–Palestine conflict causes turmoil as ‘every
with NATO’, he said. Bill Emmott, IISS Chairman
couple of years, every five years, we have the whole
of the Board of Trustees and Member of the Advi-
world rushing to our region’. Qatar, he said, supported
sory Council, asked about the Global Combat Air
the Arab peace initiative and a two-state solution.
Programme. The minister explained that Japan is
Robert Ward, IISS Japan Chair and Director of
examining the project in its Diet. More generally,
Geo-economics and Strategy, asked about Japan’s
Japan wanted defence-industrial cooperation with
ties with NATO. Kihara said Japan sees a maritime
other countries beyond the UK and Italy, including
continuity between the Euro-Atlantic and Indo-
on joint development. Japan is engaging with the US
Pacific regions. There had been attempts to change
on those issues too.
Naw Moo Moo Paw, a SEAYLP
delegate and PhD Candidate at the
University of Massachusetts Lowell
Emile Hokayem, Director of
Regional Security and Senior
Fellow for Middle East Security, IISS
38
Maeda Tadashi, Chairman
of the Board, Japan Bank for
International Cooperation
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Dr Elisabeth Hauschild, Senior
Vice President of Diehl Stiftung
& Co. KG
Robert Ward, Japan Chair and
Director of Geo-economics and
Strategy, IISS
Bill Emmott, Chairman of the Board
of Trustees and Member of the
Advisory Council, IISS
Fourth plenary session
39
CHAPTER 7
SIMULTANEOUS SPECIAL SESSIONS
Friday 31 May 2024
SPECIAL SESSION 1
Deterrence and reassurance in the Asia-Pacific
SPECIAL SESSION 2
Defence cooperation and small state security
SPECIAL SESSION 3
Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy amid different
visions for peace
Saturday 1 June 2024
SPECIAL SESSION 4
Maritime law enforcement and confidence-building
SPECIAL SESSION 5
AI, cyber defence and future warfare
SPECIAL SESSION 6
Coordinating global humanitarian operations
SPECIAL SESSION 1
Deterrence and reassurance
in the Asia-Pacific
Kajsa Ollongren, The Netherlands’ Minister of
IISS CHAIR
Defence, opened the discussion by saying that, amid
Veerle Nouwens
Executive Director, IISS–Asia
instability and tension, reassurance and deterrence
should come from cooperation and partnerships.
The EU and NATO have been the bedrock of Dutch
OPENING REMARKS
security, and maritime security and freedom of move-
Kajsa Ollongren
Minister of Defence, The Netherlands
ment drive the Netherlands’ contributions to global
Admiral Samuel Paparo
Commander, US Indo-Pacific Command
country to search for partnerships, including in the
Cui Tiankai
Former Vice Minister, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China
areas such as space, cyber and artificial intelligence.
Admiral Pierre Vandier
Vice Chief of the Defence Staff, France
that underpin the international order, which Russia
maritime missions and deployments. This leads the
Global South, and cooperation in new technology
Ollongren said it is important to bolster the principles
has torn up through its invasion of Ukraine. The need
to stand by these principles underpins Dutch support for Ukraine, and the Netherlands will continue
to support Ukrainian deterrence. While some aim to
destabilise alliances, the Netherlands has chosen the
path of cooperation.
Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander of US IndoPacific Command, said deterrence and assurance are
42
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Kajsa Ollongren, Minister of
Defence, The Netherlands
Admiral Samuel Paparo, Commander,
US Indo-Pacific Command
Cui Tiankai, former vice minister of the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, China
Admiral Pierre Vandier, Vice Chief of
the Defence Staff, France
the cornerstones of modern military strategy. When
and effective’, working for the ‘interests of all the
they are integrated, modern deterrence strategies
countries’, taking care of sovereignty and territorial
go beyond military power, encompassing a range of
integrity and taking care of the ‘legitimate security
other areas such as diplomatic and economic activity.
concerns of all countries’.
This integrated deterrence approach, he said, makes
Admiral Pierre Vandier, Vice Chief of the Defence
aggression a riskier proposition. Assurance, mean-
Staff of France, said deterrence is a defensive strat-
while, focuses on building trust and confidence, such
egy, designed to prevent an aggressor from starting
as fostering stability within alliances and partnerships,
a confrontation, while reassurance, such as alliance
and discouraging potential aggressors with coali-
guarantees, contributes to deterrence by compli-
tions and alliances. Deterrence and assurance work
cating an aggressor’s calculus. France’s Cold War
in combination but face new challenges including the
experience illustrates how additional players could
emergence of non-state actors, missile proliferation,
‘contribute to regional stability and de-escalation’.
cyber warfare and AI.
Regional actors should develop ‘robust multilateral
Cui Tiankai, former vice minister of the Ministry
partnerships’ including military and civil dimensions,
of Foreign Affairs of China, said a balance is needed
which can signal capability and resolve, deterring
between deterrence and reassurance and that these
adversaries and contributing to regional stability.
are determined by broader strategy. In this, percep-
For its part, France looks to develop its partners’
tion is important, ‘of ourselves and our relationship’.
strategic options by developing military ties, defence
Perception of real or potential rivalry could lead to
industrial partnerships and a consistent diplomatic
greater reliance on deterrence strategies, and under
posture. Handling flashpoints, meanwhile, means
such conditions ‘assurances could not be very con-
establishing daily codes of conduct and maintain-
vincing’. A good understanding of perceptions and
ing communication channels, which are important to
relationships is needed to balance deterrence and
communicating and understanding military actions
reassurance. This mutual confidence could, he con-
and political intentions. A combination of military
tinued, lead to ‘sufficient reassurance’, which would
preparedness, strategic communication and diplo-
be a good basis on which to work together on global
matic initiatives is needed to deter aggression, and
challenges such as AI and climate change. He said
responsible and credible third parties could help
desired security architectures have to be ‘balanced
deterrence and reassurance.
Special session 1
43
SPECIAL SESSION 2
Defence cooperation and
small state security
Hanno Pevkur, Estonia’s Minister of Defence, high-
IISS CHAIR
lighted Estonia’s unique security challenges due to
Viraj Solanki
IISS Research Fellow, South and Central Asian
Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy
its small size and proximity to Russia, which he characterised as the only actor that poses a threat to his
country. For instance, the Ukrainian territory occupied
by Russia is two and a half times the size of Estonia’s
OPENING REMARKS
territory. Estonia, a member of both the EU and NATO,
Hanno Pevkur
Minister of Defence, Estonia
views Russia’s military expansion and increased
Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon
Minister of Defence, Maldives
Russia’s military reforms and the increase in Russian
Esa Pulkkinen
Deputy Minister, Ministry of Defence, Finland
by increasing its defence spending to 3.4% of GDP
defence budget with concern, particularly given
forces near the Finnish border. Estonia has responded
in 2024, among the highest of any country in NATO.
Pevkur emphasised Estonia’s commitment to NATO
principles, particularly self-reliance under Article
3, and its integrated defence cooperation with Baltic
and Nordic countries and other regional partners. He
stressed the importance of international collaboration
and historical resilience, recalling Estonia’s victory
in its independence war against Russia despite being
vastly outnumbered.
44
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Hanno Pevkur, Minister of
Defence, Estonia
Mohamed
Ghassan
Mohamed Ghassan Maumoon,
Minister of Defence, Maldives
Maumoon,
Minister
Esa Pulkkinen, Deputy Minister,
Ministry of Defence, Finland
of
Esa Pulkkinen, Finland’s Deputy Minister of
Defence of the Maldives, highlighted the vulner-
Defence, discussed his country’s strategic position
ability of small states like the Maldives, which rely
and historical experiences with threats from Russia.
heavily on international law for their security. He
Finland’s response has been to develop a comprehensive
noted the increasing disregard for international
security model, integrating military and civil-society
norms by some larger states, which poses significant
preparedness. Finland’s recent accession to NATO,
challenges for smaller countries. The Maldives, under
spurred by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, marks the end
President Mohamed Muizzu, is prioritising build-
of its long history of military non-alignment. Pulkkinen
ing its own defence capabilities and fostering strong
emphasised Finland’s strong national-defence capa-
international partnerships, particularly with India
bilities, including a large military reserve supported by
and the United States. Maumoon highlighted the
conscription and advanced spearhead capabilities such
importance of maritime security and the Maldives’
as a modern fleet of F-35 fighter jets. He also highlighted
strategic role in safeguarding Indian Ocean trade
Finland’s deep defence cooperation with Nordic and
routes. He stressed that defence cooperation must
Baltic neighbours and its participation in multilateral
respect the sovereignty of the Maldives, rejecting
frameworks such as the Nordic Defence Cooperation
any foreign military presence on its soil, and called
and the Joint Expeditionary Force. Finland’s approach
for increased regional cooperation to address threats
combines robust national defence with active interna-
such as maritime terrorism, transnational crime and
tional engagement to create interdependencies that
climate change.
enhance its security.
Special session 2
45
SPECIAL SESSION 3
Myanmar: opportunities for diplomacy
amid different visions for peace
IISS CHAIR
Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister of State for the
Aaron Connelly
IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast Asian Politics and
Foreign Policy
Indo-Pacific in the Foreign, Commonwealth and
Development Office of the United Kingdom, underlined the severity of the humanitarian crisis in
Myanmar while noting the need to keep the country
OPENING REMARKS
on the global agenda. Setting out a vision for peace,
Anne-Marie Trevelyan
Minister of State for the Indo-Pacific, Foreign,
Commonwealth and Development Office, UK
Trevelyan asserted that a durable solution must be
Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin
Director General, National Security Council, Malaysia
process to take shape. In addition to its role as pen-
Igor Driesmans
Special Envoy for Myanmar, European External
Action Service, European Union
UK supports both ASEAN and the UN Special Envoy
Ngurah Swajaya
Head, Office of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to
Myanmar, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia
de-escalation in violence across the country. She reiter-
Myanmar-owned and led, but that the international
community can set the conditions required for such a
holder at the UN Security Council, for example, the
in their approaches to Myanmar. Trevelyan noted
that for progress to take shape, there must first be a
ated the need to continue humanitarian assistance for
those directly affected by the conflict.
Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal Abidin, Director
General of the National Security Council in Malaysia,
said his country’s view is that the Myanmar military’s
2021 coup d’état ‘is taking up valuable bandwidth’ from
46
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Anne-Marie Trevelyan, Minister
of State for the Indo-Pacific in
the Foreign, Commonwealth and
Development Office, UK
Dato’ Raja Nushirwan bin Zainal
Abidin, Director General of the
National Security Council, Malaysia
Ambassador Igor Driesmans, special
Envoy for Myanmar, European External
Action Service, European Union
Ambassador Ngurah Swajaya, head
of the Office of the Special Envoy
of Indonesia to Myanmar for the
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Indonesia
ASEAN’s region-building efforts at a time of great
another. Finally, he said, ‘national stakeholders’ must
challenge. Raja Nushirwan warned of an impending
find a concrete solution to ‘satisfy the aspirations of
‘worst-case scenario’ in which the country breaks into
the people’.
warring factions after the fall of the central authority.
Ambassador Ngurah Swajaya, head of the Office
He asserted that regional stakeholders all have a role
of the Special Envoy of Indonesia to Myanmar for the
to play in influencing the trajectory of the conflict, but
Indonesian Ministry of Foreign Affairs, began with
that different approaches must be better coordinated
a reflection on how ASEAN’s historical approach to
and complementary to one another. Raja Nushirwan
Myanmar, predicated primarily on engagement with
concluded by saying international stakeholders should
the military government, failed to produce a durable
promote principles rather than groups or personalities.
solution. In the wake of the 2021 coup d’état, there-
Ambassador Igor Driesmans, Special Envoy for
fore, Indonesia realised a need to adopt an inclusive
Myanmar for the European External Action Service
approach and engage with all stakeholders. But in
of the European Union, explained that the EU has
the current context, Myanmar stakeholders remain
responded to the 2021 coup with eight rounds of
unwilling to look beyond military matters to prepare
targeted sanctions against the military junta. These
adequately for a political solution. Recognising this
accompany €265 million in development and humani-
challenge, the ambassador said the international com-
tarian aid to the people of Myanmar. Even so, he said,
munity should step up its efforts, including by passing
these efforts alone cannot solve the crisis. Outlining
another UN Security Council resolution. Whilst it will
a way forward, Igor insisted on the need to avoid
ultimately be up to Myanmar stakeholders to begin
partial solutions by engaging all stakeholders. Next,
dialogue, the changing situation on the ground has
confidence-building measures should be undertaken
created conditions conducive to outside parties push-
amongst all relevant parties. Thirdly, stakehold-
ing further on the need for an inclusive approach.
ers should recognise their shared interests and work
ASEAN and the international community should not
more closely to communicate and coordinate with one
give up and should continue to seek a solution.
Special session 3
47
SPECIAL SESSION 4
Maritime law enforcement
and confidence-building
IISS CHAIR
Admiral Linda Fagan, Commandant of the United
Nick Childs
IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces and
Maritime Security
States Coast Guard, underscored the United States’
global connections and reliance on the sea. Nations’
ability to carry out basic maritime law enforcement is
vital to maintaining stability ashore, she said, to pre-
OPENING REMARKS
vent activities such as trafficking in persons and drugs,
Admiral Linda Fagan
Commandant, United States Coast Guard
cyber attacks and illegal, unreported and unregulated
Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah
Chief, Maritime Security Agency, Indonesia
coast guard, navy or fisheries service, are the best solu-
Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan
Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard
is a capability distinct from war fighting. It would be
Major General Le Quang Dao
Commander, Vietnam Coast Guard
Unplanned Encounters at Sea, which currently guides
fishing. Constabulary services, whether called the
tions to this. She added that maritime law enforcement
helpful to have an agreement similar to the Code for
the behaviour of navies, to help avoid conflict between
coastguard or maritime law enforcement vessels of
different nations.
Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah, Chief of the Maritime
Security Agency of Indonesia, pointed out that the
Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)
Coast Guard Forum has helped to build confidence
and trust among countries in the region and provide
48
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Admiral Linda Fagan, Commandant,
US Coast Guard
Vice Admiral Dr Irvansyah, Chief,
Maritime Security Agency, Indonesia
Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan,
Commandant, Philippine Coast Guard
Major General Le Quang Dao,
Commander, Vietnam Coast Guard
a platform for preventive maritime diplomacy. As an
administration over its maritime areas, and to pursue
archipelagic state, he said, Indonesia is facing peren-
international cooperation and engagement, most sig-
nial challenges including transnational crime, territory
nificantly with treaty ally the US and with ASEAN. He
violation, piracy, accidents at sea and cyber crime. But
added that its approach to the use of water cannons
he said that illegal, unreported and unregulated fishing
was to save lives and hoped that others would adopt a
still contributes to 70% of maritime issues in Indonesia.
similar approach.
In terms of maritime law enforcement and confidence-
Major General Le Quang Dao, Commander of the
building, various factors such as an excessive reliance
Vietnam Coast Guard, joined his fellow panellists in
on law enforcement rather than preventive measures
emphasising that ‘the sea and oceans play a vital role
was encouraging more assertiveness between rival
in economics, politics, society, defence and security
countries. This reinforces the importance of collabora-
for not only coastal countries but also other nations
tion in the region and beyond, including through such
worldwide’. He pointed out, however, that maritime
forums as the Coast Guard Global Summit.
security, order and safety, as well as environmental
Admiral Ronnie Gil Gavan, Commandant of
issues and economic development, face both traditional
the Philippine Coast Guard, described the regional
and non-traditional challenges. These issues are global,
maritime domain as fluid, uncertain, complex and
he said, and ‘cannot be resolved by any single country,
ambiguous, and he said it was becoming more oper-
region, organisation or force’. He proposed continuing
ationally volatile. He noted the Philippine Coast
to strengthen current cooperation by complying with
Guard has become a more prominent feature of the
the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea,
Philippines’ frontier in the South China Sea. Its pur-
developing new cooperation mechanisms, and com-
pose was to enforce a safe, stable, prosperous and
mitting the Vietnam Coast Guard to taking an active
peaceful rules-based order, to fortify the Philippines’
and responsible role in this with other coast guards.
Special session 4
49
SPECIAL SESSION 5
AI, cyber defence and future warfare
IISS CHAIR
General Timothy Haugh, Commander of United
Julia Voo
IISS Senior Fellow for Cyber Power and Future Conflict
States Cyber Command, opened the special session
by outlining the US commitment to responsible, ethical and secure artificial intelligence (AI) deployment,
OPENING REMARKS
which he contrasted with nations that seek to use it
General Timothy Haugh
Commander, United States Cyber Command
to control societies. He highlighted the success of the
Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez
Director-General, Joint Staff Headquarters, Pakistan
Armed Forces
Artificial Intelligence and Autonomy, which 55 nations
Admiral Rob Bauer
Chair, Military Committee, NATO
‘to detect and counter threats, to drive and deepen
Mirjana Spoljaric
President, International Committee of the Red Cross
tices’. To further the science of AI, he highlighted the
Political Declaration on Responsible Military Use of
have endorsed. On the challenges of AI, General
Haugh outlined the US Cyber Command’s approach:
partnerships, and to develop and promote best pracUS National Security Agency’s AI Security Center as
an example of a collaborative environment. General
Haugh emphasised the US willingness to stand with
Indo-Pacific partners and allies while separately stressing that nations looking to use emerging technologies
should consider the values guiding their adoption.
Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez, DirectorGeneral of the Joint Staff Headquarters for the Pakistan
50
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
General Timothy Haugh,
Commander, US Cyber Command
Lieutenant General Ahsan Gulrez,
Director-General, Joint Staff
Headquarters, Pakistan Armed Forces
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair, Military
Committee, NATO
Mirjana Spoljaric, President,
International Committee of the
Red Cross
Armed Forces, detailed the challenges and risks that
transparency. He drew attention to the effectiveness of
might arise as smaller states, non-state actors and
public-private partnership in preventing cyber opera-
high-tech companies gain access to emerging tech-
tions through openness of parties and flexibility in
nologies. On the topic of future warfare, he described
data storage policies. Admiral Bauer raised concerns
the expansion of conflict into the hybrid grey zone
around the unrestricted use of new technologies on the
through emerging technologies as countries seek to
battlefield, which has been accompanied by a decay in
gain a decisive advantage, be it through AI-enabled
conventional and nuclear arms control. He hoped that
cyber warfare; information operations to psychologi-
the rules-based international order would not be for-
cally intimidate a population; or the development
gotten in pursuit of high-tech weaponry.
of space-based offensive technologies. Lieutenant
Mirjana Spoljaric, President of the International
General Gulrez stressed how doctrine has been forced
Committee of the Red Cross (ICRC), concluded the ses-
to adapt to innovation, raising ethical concerns such
sion by highlighting how emerging technologies have
as how lethal autonomous weapons systems are devel-
made humanitarian work more complex and difficult to
oped and the role of humans in their operations. He
manage. She highlighted three trends: the increasingly
urged the international community to cooperate on
widespread use of autonomous weapons systems with-
establishing a rules-based framework promoting such
out human intervention; the influence of AI on targeting
aspects as regulation, transparency and accessibility
that surpasses human cognitive capacity; and the use of
for AI.
cyber operations to target civilian infrastructure includ-
Admiral Rob Bauer, Chair of the NATO Military
ing those of medical services. Spoljaric made two calls
Committee, reminded participants that while some
to all states. Firstly, reaffirm their commitment to the
might imagine that, amid technological innovations,
accepted principles of international humanitarian law
conflict now only consists of drones, AI and quantum
through a new treaty regulating autonomous weapons
technology, the reality of modern warfare continues to
systems by 2026, which can be aided by implementing
involve trenches, artillery and human soldiers. Using
the ICRC’s recommendations for protecting civilians
Ukrainian successes as a reference, he advocated for
against digital threats during armed conflict. Secondly,
collaboration around the development and deploy-
oppose the concept of military victory at all costs, so
ment of new technologies that can increase battlefield
that technology can serve the cause of peace.
Special session 5
51
SPECIAL SESSION 6
Coordinating global
humanitarian operations
IISS CHAIR
Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for Defence of Sweden,
Dr Irene Mia
IISS Senior Fellow for Latin America,
and Conflict, Security and Development;
Editor, Armed Conflict Survey
opened the special session with an overview of challenges to humanitarian operations, which include
‘revisionist powers, malign state actors and terrorists’
as well as climate change. He referred to Russia’s fullscale invasion of Ukraine as having forced Sweden
OPENING REMARKS
to rethink its security, which led to its becoming
Dr Pål Jonson
Minister for Defence, Sweden
a member of NATO in March 2024. He referred to
Pio Tikoduadua
Minister for Home Affairs and Immigration, Fiji
Defence concept, and drew attention to the strategic
General Romeo Brawner Jr
Chief of Staff, Armed Forces of the Philippines
In terms of implementation, he referred to the need
General Angus Campbell
Chief of the Defence Force, Australia
Jonson observed the rising importance of the Asia-
the importance of resilience, citing Sweden’s Total
links between the Euro-Atlantic and the Indo-Pacific.
to build strong political and security partnerships.
Pacific for Sweden and said Sweden is drafting a new
defence policy strategy for the region.
Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home Affairs
and Immigration of Fiji, highlighted the increase in
demand for military assistance in the face of emergencies in the Pacific Islands and beyond as a result
of climate change. He cited the 280 climate-related
52
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Dr Pål Jonson, Minister for
Defence, Sweden
Pio Tikoduadua, Minister for Home
Affairs and Immigration, Fiji
General Romeo Brawner Jr, Chief of
Staff for the Armed Forces, Philippines
General Angus Campbell, Chief of
the Defence Force, Australia
disasters to which militaries worldwide had been
efforts. Brawner cited the importance of cultivating a
deployed since June 2022. He urged clarity on roles
readiness culture throughout relevant organisations
and responsibilities before assistance of armed forces
by training, continuously improving strategy and
is sought or offered, and he emphasised the ‘primacy
deploying advanced technology. He concluded by
of civilian agencies in emergency management and
stressing the importance of strengthening interna-
response’. Tikoduadua also argued for ‘concurrency’
tional cooperation frameworks.
to be embedded into planning and implementation
General Angus Campbell, Chief of the Australian
as emergencies do not occur in isolation. He con-
Defence Force, concluded the special session addresses
cluded by referring to plans for a Pacific Response
by outlining three agents – the individual, the state and
Group that would include military personnel from the
climate change – that can create circumstances in which
Pacific region and act as a standby unit to support civil
a humanitarian response is needed. He also noted that
authorities in natural disasters.
the Australian Defence Force considers humanitarian
General Romeo Brawner Jr, Chief of Staff for the
operations as ranging from disaster relief to peace-
Armed Forces of the Philippines, drew attention to
keeping. He cited three requirements for humanitarian
the vulnerability of the Philippines to natural disas-
operations: legitimacy to act, political support, and the
ters and how this has required the country’s armed
capacity, when needed, to impose or threaten force
forces,
Coordination
to protect life. Campbell added that humanitarian
Center (CMCC), to develop a sophisticated and resil-
operations are ‘whole-of-government problems and
ient disaster-response mechanism. He outlined the
they need whole-of-government responses’. Planning
CMCC’s structure and how coordination bridges
should be for the long term, with civilian authorities
the gaps between military and civilian humanitarian
taking precedence as soon as possible.
through
its
Civil-Military
Special session 6
53
CHAPTER 8
Reception and dinner
hosted by the president

CHAPTER 9
China’s approach to
global security
FIFTH PLENARY SESSION
Sunday 2 June 2024, 08:35
SPEAKERS
Admiral Dong Jun
Minister of National Defense, China
FIFTH PLENARY SESSION
China’s Approach to Global Security
Admiral Dong Jun,
Minister of National
Defense, China
Admiral Dong Jun, Minister of National Defense for
Weapon-Free Zone. China remains committed to
China, opened the session with a discussion of the
pursuing common security, he said, highlight-
Asia-Pacific region’s security landscape, which he
ing China’s policy of neutrality and preference for
characterised as naturally bound together as a commu-
dialogue to resolve the ‘Ukraine crisis’ and ‘Palestin-
nity with a shared future. According to the minister,
ian–Israeli conflict’. China is committed to equality,
Asia-Pacific countries hold a strong anti-hegemonic
mutual respect, openness and inclusiveness, and
tendency and that ‘attempts at decoupling, cutting
‘pursues the common good and shared interests
supply chains or building a small yard with high
above anything else’ in China’s defence cooperation
fences will find no support here’.
with other countries.
Admiral Dong outlined President Xi Jinping’s
The minister then turned to China’s commitment
three global initiatives: the Global Development
to safeguarding its ‘core interests’, which he said
Initiative, the Global Security Initiative and the
are sacred and inviolable. ‘The Taiwan question is at
Global Civilization Initiative. He outlined what he
the core of China’s core interests’, he told delegates.
described as China’s peaceful strategic culture and
According to the minister, the ‘One China’ policy
a national-defence policy that is purely defensive in
has ‘long become a universally recognised norm
nature. The minister reiterated that China’s nuclear
governing international relations’ and accused the
policy remains consistently based on no first use, and
Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities in
that China is willing to take the lead in signing the
Taiwan of pursuing separation in an incremental way.
protocol to the treaty of the Southeast Asia Nuclear
These ‘separatists’, he said, would be ‘nailed to the
60
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Admiral Dong Jun,
Minister of National
Defense, China,
addresses the audience
pillar of shame in history’. The minister also pointed
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
to ‘some external forces’ for ‘hollowing out the One
China principle with a salami-slicing strategy’ that
Josh Rogin, opinion columnist at the Washington
includes passing Taiwan-relevant legislation, selling
Post, asked about China’s commitment to peaceful
arms to Taiwan and having illegal official contacts
reunification with Taiwan, and whether China’s drills
with it. China’s handling of Taiwan-related issues in
following the presidential inauguration of Lai Ching-
accordance with Chinese laws is the internal affair of
te (William) were intended to convince the Taiwanese
China and ‘anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from
people that China is truly interested in peaceful reuni-
China will only end up in self-destruction’, he said.
fication. Rogin asked whether engaging with Taiwan’s
The admiral concluded the session with Chi-
chosen leaders might not better serve China’s cause
na’s recommendations for building a framework of
of peace and stability. Admiral Dong responded that
regional security cooperation to make the Asia-Pacific
Taiwan is a province of China, and there is a legal
an anchor for global stability and development. This
basis for this under international law. He cited the
would be based on protecting the legitimate security
1943 Cairo Declaration, the 1945 Potsdam Declaration
interests of all countries; building a more just and equi-
and UNGA 2758 Resolution in 1971. The minister said
table international order; giving full play to regional
the status quo is being unilaterally eroded, citing the
security architectures and multilateralism in regional
DPP’s failure to recognise the 1992 Consensus on the
security affairs; advancing open and substantive
‘One China’ policy; attempts to change the Constitu-
defence cooperation; setting an example of maritime
tion; changes to Taiwan’s textbooks to erase Chinese
security cooperation; and strengthening security gov-
identity; prevention of people-to-people ties; and
ernance in emerging areas such as new technologies.
strengthening of its military capabilities. The minister
On maritime security, Admiral Dong said China has
said this is an incremental approach to independence
exercised great restraint but that ‘there is a limit to
and outside forces are sending wrong signals to Tai-
[China’s] restraint’. On emerging technologies, he said
wan’s independence forces, thus making them ‘very
countries should ‘reject the behaviours of overstretch-
aggressive’. While the minister said China would
ing the concept of national security and preventing
pursue peaceful reunification ‘with the biggest sincer-
other countries’ technology development by imposing
ity’, he warned the ‘forces for Taiwan independence’ to
technology blockades’.
‘abandon the illusion and return to the right track of
Fifth plenary session
61
Josh Rogin, opinion columnist,
Washington Post
Dr Chung Min Lee, Chairman of the
Advisory Council and Trustee, IISS
unification’ and to build more understanding of China’s Anti-Secessionist Law.
Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director
of the Indo-Pacific program of the
German Marshall Fund
Bonnie Glaser, Managing Director of the IndoPacific program of the German Marshall Fund,
Dr Chung Min Lee, IISS Chairman of the Advisory
asked about China–Philippines–US relations and
Council and Trustee, asked the minister how audience
tensions around Second Thomas Shoal in the South
members could trust China when ‘your words and
China Sea – including the use of water cannons
your actions are totally opposite’, specifically citing
by the China Coast Guard against Philippine ves-
accusations of Chinese cyber activity, increases in
sels – and what China will do to de-escalate what
its nuclear forces, and pursuit of its territorial claims
she described as a dangerous situation. Admiral
in the South China Sea. Admiral Dong responded on
Dong responded that the Philippines and China
maritime security, telling delegates that there has never
had reached an agreement to allow the Philippines
been any incident in which a civilian ship has had
to send supplies to personnel on a ship in Second
its freedom of navigation compromised in the South
Thomas Shoal for humanitarian reasons. How-
China Sea. The minister then questioned why the issue
ever, according to Admiral Dong, the Philippines
of freedom of navigation is always brought up and
had unilaterally reneged on its promise not to also
asked whether big powers continue to increase their
send construction materials, and it was deliberately
military presence in the region to stir up trouble. Admi-
trying to make an issue of the resulting incidents.
ral Dong said many countries in the South China Sea
The minister warned that while Chinese law
had been victims of freedom of navigation operations
enforcement has been very restrained, its tolerance
by some countries who have not signed UNCLOS.
for deliberate provocation is limited.
62
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
CHAPTER 10
Connecting Indian Ocean
and Pacific security
SIXTH PLENARY SESSION
Sunday 2 June 2024, 09:30
SPEAKERS
Sutin Klungsang
Minister of Defence, Thailand
Judith Collins
Minister of Defence, New Zealand
Bill Blair
Minister of National Defence, Canada
SIXTH PLENARY SESSION
Connecting Indian Ocean
and Pacific security
Sutin Klungsang,
Minister of
Defence, Thailand
Sutin Klungsang, Minister of Defence for Thai-
He added that coordination and collaboration
land, opened the session by noting that Thailand
between ASEAN-led mechanisms with regional and
is located on a peninsula in Southeast Asia con-
sub-regional cooperation frameworks in both the
necting the Indian and Pacific Oceans. Thailand
Indian and Pacific Oceans would strengthen relation-
promotes cooperation with all countries through
ships. Thailand also urges enhanced domain awareness
various mechanisms to enhance connectivity and
through the promotion of maritime information-sharing
mutual prosperity in both ocean regions, high-
and collaboration, and it emphasises regional maritime
lighting China’s Belt and Road Initiative and the
cooperation by actively participating in various key
United States’ Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
cooperative mechanisms.
Increasing connectivity presents opportunities for
Judith Collins, Minister of Defence for New
economic prosperity, societal benefits and collective
Zealand, outlined New Zealand’s connection to its
human-security development. However, it also poses
immediate Pacific region, the Indo-Pacific, and the
challenges to regional security, he said, ranging from
world at large. New Zealand is a long-standing con-
intensified geopolitical competition to emerging
tributor to a number of multinational peacekeeping
transborder security challenges such as transnational
operations, notably in the Middle East and on the
crime, illegal migration, piracy and environmen-
Korean Peninsula. They are complemented by a
tal degradation. Therefore, enhancing cooperation
‘regular programme’ of engagements, exercises and
among countries in the region is a ‘vital mechanism’
operations in Asia, with a particular focus on support-
to foster trust and confidence-building.
ing maritime security.
64
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Judith Collins, Minister
of Defence, New Zealand
The South Pacific continues to be an area of focus
Canada is increasing its naval deployments in the
for New Zealand as a Pacific nation. Its security, the
region, and it is beginning to deploy ships from the
minister said, is ‘directly connected’ to that of its
‘Atlantic Ocean through the Red Sea, the Gulf of Aden
Pacific partners and the region as a whole. New Zea-
and the Indian Ocean’. He added that ‘perhaps by
land works with these partners and those from outside
2050 the fastest shipping route between Europe and
the region to ‘protect and promote Pacific security
Asia will be through our Arctic’.
interests’. Pacific Island countries have long identi-
Blair noted that Canada’s defence policy identifies the
fied climate change as the region’s primary security
Indo-Pacific as ‘one of the two priority regions for military
challenge, in addition to issues such as illegal, unregu-
presence for the very first time’. Canada, he said, would
lated and unreported fishing, as well as transnational
invest over $10 billion to sustain its naval fleets to be a
organised crime. Similarly, the Pacific is ‘increasingly
‘reliable and dependable partner’. Blair noted that, during
important as a theatre for strategic competition’. Per-
the Shangri-La Dialogue, he met with China’s Defense
haps most acutely in the South China Sea, there are
Minister, Admiral Dong Jun, in the first meeting between
‘conflicting states’ ambitions resulting in challenges to
Canada’s and China’s defence ministers in over 11 years.
maritime sovereignty’.
New Zealand recognised that building individual
relationships with key partners in Southeast Asia
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
was ‘more critical than ever’. New Zealand welcomes
Morgan Michaels, IISS Research Fellow for Southeast
AUKUS as an ‘initiative to enhance regional security
Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, asked Sutin about
and stability’, and it is ‘investigating opportunities’ for
increasing flows of people from Myanmar to Thai-
potential involvement in AUKUS Pillar 2.
land. Sutin responded that ‘peace in Myanmar greatly
Bill Blair, Minister of National Defence for Canada,
affects peace and stability in Thailand, especially
highlighted that it is a ‘proud Pacific nation’ whose
between the people along the border’. Therefore, Thai-
future and prosperity is deeply tied to the stability
land closely monitors the situation in Myanmar. He
and security of the entire Indo-Pacific region. Blair
noted that 50,000 people from Myanmar had crossed
said Canada would join the new initiative on the resil-
the border of Thailand.
ience of defence-industrial bases in the Indo-Pacific,
announced by US Secretary of Defense Austin.
Nick Childs, IISS Senior Fellow for Naval Forces
and Maritime Security, asked Collins and Blair about
Sixth plenary session
65
Bill Blair,
Minister of National
Defence, Canada
their respective countries’ roles in collaborating with
the Pacific. Collins said the top issue that comes up in
AUKUS. Collins responded that New Zealand’s
defence in the Pacific is ‘illegal, unregulated fishing’.
strengths in technology could allow it to be a contribu-
Pacific nations often require assistance with monitor-
tor to AUKUS Pillar 2. Blair added that neither New
ing and taking action against illegal fishing.
Zealand nor Canada ‘were in the business of looking’
Viraj Solanki, IISS Research Fellow for South and Cen-
for nuclear-powered submarines. Canada is in the pro-
tral Asian Defence, Strategy and Diplomacy, asked about
cess of replacing its submarine fleet, but it is focused
Canada’s and New Zealand’s focus on the Indian Ocean,
on conventional submarines. Canada did, however,
including India. Collins responded that the Indian Ocean
have a great deal to contribute to AUKUS Pillar 2.
is ‘very relevant’. In particular, New Zealand is seeking to
Lieutenant Colonel Ki Manghout, a SEAYLP del-
‘renew and to grow and enhance our relationship’ with
egate and Assistant and Advisor to the Permanent
India. Blair said India is ‘very important’ to Canada. India
Secretary of State for the Ministry of National Defence
has posed some challenges for Canada recently, but ‘we
of Cambodia, asked the New Zealand minister about
believe that the appropriate resolution of that is through
climate change adaptability and other issues facing
dialogue and through proper engagement’.
Morgan Michaels, Research
Fellow for Southeast Asian
Politics and Foreign Policy, IISS
Lieutenant Colonel Ki Manghout,
SEAYLP delegate and Assistant and
Advisor to the Permanent Secretary
of State for the Ministry of National
Defence of Cambodia
66
Nick Childs, Senior Fellow for Naval
Forces and Maritime Security, IISS
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Viraj Solanki, Research Fellow for
South and Central Asian Defence,
Strategy and Diplomacy, IISS
CHAPTER 11
Re-imagining solutions
for global peace and
regional stability
SEVENTH PLENARY SESSION
Sunday 2 June 2024, 11:30
SPEAKERS
Volodymyr Zelenskyy
President, Ukraine
Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin
Minister of Defence, Malaysia
Dr Ng Eng Hen
Minister for Defence, Singapore
SEVENTH PLENARY SESSION
Re-imagining solutions for global
peace and regional stability
Volodymyr Zelenskyy,
President, Ukraine
Volodymyr Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine,
He highlighted how diplomacy can work ‘when it
opened his address with a description of the de-
truly aims to protect life’ and cited ‘the coalitions from
grading of diplomacy over the last few decades.
military to humanitarian’ that had helped Ukraine to
He referred to Ukraine in the 1990s having ‘suf-
build resilience against Russian aggression. In par-
fered one of the greatest deceptions’ in modern
ticular, he thanked Germany, the Netherlands and the
history when security assurances from nuclear
United States for their support in bolstering Ukraini-
powers, after Ukraine handed over its nucle-
an air defences, while thanking especially Qatar for its
ar warheads to Russia, failed to ‘translate into
help in negotiating the return of Ukrainian children
real security’. He referred to Russia’s violations
kidnapped by Russia. Zelenskyy outlined the ‘new
of Ukraine’s ‘territory and sovereignty’ in the
security architecture’ that Ukraine is creating with
2000s, saying that Russia had ‘brought a war to
its partners, expressing confidence that Ukraine will
our land’ by the middle of the 2010s. Zelenskyy
join the EU. He referred to the Summit on Peace in
noted how Russia’s war against Ukraine now had
Ukraine that would take place later in June in Switzer-
a global impact.
land, and invited Asia’s leaders to attend.
Dato’ Seri Mohamed Khaled bin Nordin, Malay-
zero-sum thinking. Khaled also expressed Malaysia’s
sia’s Minister of Defence, emphasised the need for
hope for peace in Ukraine. He noted the importance
dialogue over what he termed binary views and
of working towards peace in Palestine and welcomed
68
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Dato’ Seri Mohamed
Khaled bin Nordin,
Minister of
Defence, Malaysia
‘any proposal’ that might help achieve an immediate
the South China Sea and urged more dialogue between
and permanent ceasefire in the Israel–Hamas conflict.
the US and Chinese military. He doubted there would
He stressed the right to national independence and
be a ‘glasnost or perestroika moment for China’ and
sovereignty for the Palestinians.
pointed to the importance of the role of ASEAN.
Khaled addressed regional security, including threats
from emerging technology, cyber security, global warming and tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan
QUESTIONS AND ANSWERS
Strait. He proposed re-imagining ‘the solution for a better
Dr Tim Huxley, former IISS–Asia executive director,
future’ in three pillars, or ‘outlooks’. The first is con-
asked Khaled about the impact on emerging secu-
structive dialogue, and he cited the convening power of
rity challenges in Borneo from Indonesia’s plan to
ASEAN as indispensable to such dialogue. The second
move its capital to Nusantara. Khaled replied that he
is ‘the robust initiation of comprehensive cooperation
is unconcerned about risks from an increased Indone-
across domains’. The third is using numerous layers and
sian presence across Malaysia’s border with Indonesia.
platforms to achieve complementary cooperation.
Tidarat Yingcharoen, a SEAYLP delegate and an adviser
Dr Ng Eng Hen, Singapore’s Minister for Defence,
to the chairman of the Committee on Foreign Affairs of
said, ‘We must avoid a physical conflict in Asia because
the House of Representatives of Thailand, asked about
we can all agree that neither Asia nor the world can
the region’s ability to contribute to ‘global peace and
withstand a third geopolitical shock.’ Dr Ng outlined
stability when at times there is not any’ in the region.
the ‘uncertainty of continuing support and achievable
Professor Rory Medcalf, the head of the National Secu-
outcomes’ for Ukraine and the risk of ‘wider contagion’
rity College at Australian National University, asked
from the Israel–Hamas conflict. He emphasised ‘not here
how ASEAN could convey to China its concerns about
in Asia’ as the ‘salient epiphany’ against this backdrop
the ‘devastating’ consequences of ‘the use of force
and welcomed that the US and China have both ‘disa-
against Taiwan’. Khaled emphasised the importance
vowed physical conflict between their two countries’.
of dialogue as the answer to most of the questions
Dr Ng warned against overly simplistic com-
posed. Dr Ng, meanwhile, referred to ASEAN’s ability
parisons between Russia’s attack on Ukraine and the
to settle many of its internal disputes ‘peacefully’ and
situation between Taiwan and China. He said there
the group’s ‘agency’. He continued that China did not
would be no quick resolution of competing claims in
‘need any advice about Taiwan from ASEAN’.
Seventh plenary session
69
Dr Ng Eng Hen, Minister
for Defence, Singapore
Dr Neth Chanthima, a SEAYLP delegate and Advi-
mentioned in his address: nuclear security; food security;
sor to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International
and the release of prisoners of war and Ukrainian chil-
Cooperation of Cambodia, asked Zelenskyy whether
dren abducted by Russia. Veerle Nouwens, IISS–Asia
there should be a ‘collective call’ from Ukraine and its
Executive Director, asked Zelenksyy what he hoped for
allies for ‘the Israeli government to adhere to interna-
at the Summit on Peace in Ukraine from Asia-Pacific
tional humanitarian law’. Zelenskyy spoke of Israel’s
countries. Zelenskyy urged them to support the summit,
right to self-defence, indicated Ukraine’s willingness
including through their attendance, and expressed his
to give humanitarian support to Gaza and noted that
openness to ‘proposals and thoughts’ that could end the
Ukraine ‘recognises two states, Israel and Palestine’.
war and yield a ‘sustainable and just peace for Ukraine’.
Sir John Chipman KCMG, IISS Executive Chairman,
Dr Ng closed the session by noting his personal admi-
asked whether the seizure of Russia’s state assets would
ration for Zelenskyy and thanked him for his in-person
be discussed at the summit. Zelenskyy replied that the
participation after his virtual special address in 2022, as
summit would be centred on the three ‘main issues’ he
well as his leadership.
Sir John Chipman KCMG, Executive
Chairman, IISS
Veerle Nouwens, Executive Director,
IISS–Asia
70
Tidarat Yingcharoen, a SEAYLP delegate
and an adviser to the chairman of the
Committee on Foreign Affairs of the
House of Representatives, Thailand
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Dr Neth Chanthima, a SEAYLP
delegate and Advisor to the Ministry
of Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation, Cambodia
Dr Tim Huxley, former executive
director, IISS–Asia
Professor Rory Medcalf, the head
of the National Security College at
Australian National University
Seventh plenary session
71
CHAPTER 12
The Southeast Asian
Young Leaders’
Programme
The Southeast Asian Young
Leaders’ Programme
The first roundtable
at the Southeast
Asian Young
Leaders’ Programme
The seventh Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme
next several hours, the young leaders participated
(SEAYLP) returned with its strongest cohort yet of aca-
in three roundtable discussions on regional security
demics, analysts, politicians, officials and journalists.
issues, held under rules of non-attribution.
Of the entire cohort, 25 delegates hailed from all ten
Dr Evan Laksmana, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast
Asia-Pacific
ASEAN member states. Seven additional delegates from
Asia
Australia, Canada, China, Germany, India, South Korea
Regional Security Assessment moderated the first dis-
and the United States joined the programme as guests.
cussion, on ‘Seeking stability in the South China Sea’.
For the third time, SEAYLP featured representation from
Panellists from Canada, the Philippines and Vietnam
four Pacific Island nations: Fiji, Papua New Guinea,
each spoke about their respective countries’ approaches
Timor-Leste and Tonga. In line with the programme’s
to security challenges in the South China Sea. Of par-
long-standing commitment to gender diversity, 21 of
ticular concern amongst participants around the table
the 40 young leaders were women. SEAYLP 2024 was
were tensions in the Spratly Islands and their implica-
funded by the Australian government, Global Affairs
tions for peace and security in the broader region.
Canada, Google Asia-Pacific and the Singapore Ministry
of Foreign Affairs.
Military
Modernisation;
Editor,
Dr Irene Mia, IISS Senior Fellow for Latin
America, and Conflict, Security and Development;
Editor, Armed Conflict Survey, moderated a second
panel, on ‘Transnational crime and the Asia-
ROUNDTABLES ON REGIONAL SECURITY
Pacific security order’. Panellists from Cambodia,
The programme began with a welcome to the
Indonesia and Thailand spoke about challenges that
Shangri-La Dialogue given by Dr Bastian Giegerich,
trans-national organised crime poses along the mul-
IISS Director-General and Chief Executive. Over the
tinational shores of the Mekong River; through scam
74
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
A SEAYLP discussion
moderated by Dr Irene
Mia, IISS Senior Fellow
for Latin America, and
Conflict, Security and
Development; Editor,
Armed Conflict Survey
centres in Myanmar and other states; and through
PhD Candidate at Flinders University, asked General
illegal, unregulated and unreported fishing.
(Retd) Prabowo Subianto, Indonesian president-elect
Aaron Connelly, IISS Senior Fellow for Southeast
and Minister for National Defence, about land and
Asian Politics and Foreign Policy, moderated a final
maritime boundaries between Indonesia and Timor-
panel, focused on ‘Economic security amid the green
Leste. Naw Moo Moo Paw, PhD Candidate at the
transition’. Panellists from China, Malaysia and the US
University of Massachusetts Lowell, asked Ingrida
considered how the green transition is leading great
Šimonytė, Lithuanian Prime Minister, about coun-
powers and middle powers alike to pursue industrial
tering disinformation. Dr Neth Chanthima, Advisor
policies to maximise their economic security.
to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs and International
Cooperation
of
Cambodia,
asked
Volodymyr
Zelenskyy, President of Ukraine, whether there
PARTICIPATION IN PLENARY SESSIONS
should be a ‘collective call’ from Ukraine and its allies
SEAYLP delegates asked some of the most important
for Israel to adhere to humanitarian law.
questions fielded in the SLD plenary sessions. Justin
FACTS Asia, asked Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr, President
ENGAGEMENTS WITH SENIOR
DEFENCE LEADERS
of the Philippines, following his keynote address,
The delegates also had the opportunity for exclusive
about modernisation plans for the Armed Forces of
engagements with senior leaders during the Dialogue.
the Philippines. Nyein Nyein Thant Aung, Master’s
Dr José Ramos-Horta, President of Timor-Leste, held a
Candidate at Dublin City University, asked Sébastien
roundtable discussion with delegates where he spoke
Lecornu, French Minister of the Armed Forces, about
about Timor-Leste’s experience recovering from con-
the use of AI by non-state actors. Dr Hafiizh Hashim,
flict and pursuing development. Delegates enjoyed
Assistant Lecturer at the Academy of Brunei Studies
discussions with Bill Blair, the Minister for National
with the Universiti Brunei Darussalam, asked Richard
Defence of Canada, Greg Moriarty, Secretary of the
Marles, Australian Deputy Prime Minister and
Australian Department of Defence, and General Angus
Minister for Defence, about ASEAN’s regional role
Campbell, Chief of the Australian Defence Force. Dr
and Australia’s commitment to the ASEAN Outlook
Vivian Balakrishnan, Singapore’s Minister for Foreign
on the Indo-Pacific. Iriana Freitas de Jesus Ximenez,
Affairs, held a roundtable discussion following the
Baquisal, Resident National Security Analyst at
The Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme
75
A roundtable at the
Southeast Asian Young
Leaders’ Programme
conclusion of the Dialogue. All sessions were held
continued their discussions at the residence of Allaster
under rules of non-attribution.
Cox, Australian High Commissioner to Singapore.
Hugh Jeffrey, Deputy Secretary for Strategy, Policy
SOCIAL ENGAGEMENTS AND
NETWORKING OPPORTUNITIES
and Industry at the Australian Department of Defence,
The programme’s activities began on Thursday, 30
final day, the delegates travelled to the residence of
May, with a welcome reception at the residence of Jean-
Eivind Homme, Norwegian Ambassador to Singapore,
Dominique Ieraci, High Commissioner of Canada in
for a closing reception following the conclusion of the
Singapore, where they were greeted by General Wayne
Dialogue. As a result of the Dialogue, the young lead-
Eyre, Canadian Chief of Defence Staff. After a full day
ers will take with them both new friendships and new
of discussions on Friday, 31 May, SEAYLP delegates
ideas for collaboration.
Delegates at a roundtable at the Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme
76
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
congratulated the delegates on their selection. On their
APPENDICES
I. Selected digital
engagement and media
coverage of the 2024 IISS
Shangri-La Dialogue
II. Selected IISS publications
APPENDIX I
Selected digital engagement
and media coverage of the 2024
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
The SLD playlist
section on the IISS
YouTube channel
DIGITAL ENGAGEMENT HIGHLIGHTS
The Shangri-La Dialogue led the conversation online.
Speeches and coverage from the plenary and special sessions – and all the events which happened behind the
scenes in Singapore – generated over 9,300 unique mentions on social media over the weekend. These social
conversations reached over 48 million people, with most of
the online dialogue happening in the United States, United
Kingdom, Asia, Europe and Australia. Plenary speakers
and delegates tweeted and retweeted Dialogue-related
content. Dialogue highlights and speaker announcements
also featured on IISS LinkedIn and Instagram channels,
sparking engagement and supporting the event’s visibility globally.
We leveraged our IISS YouTube channel to ensure global
audiences could watch the plenary and special sessions live
online. In addition, the plenary and special session recordings have so far generated over 194,000 views. Our YouTube
playlists also included expert opinions to engage our audiences with prime IISS analysis on the ground in Singapore.
78
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
The five most viewed plenary sessions:
• IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Indonesian presidentelect and Defence Minister General (Retd) Prabowo
Subianto Special Address (over 61,000 views)
The SLD and SEAYLP
bespoke web pages
on the IISS website
The SLD section on
the IISS website
•
•
•
•
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Fifth plenary
session: China’s Approach to Global Security
(over 38,000 views)
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Seventh plenary session: Re-imagining Solutions for
Global Peace and Regional Stability (over
28,000 views)
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Philippines
President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr Keynote
Address (over 20,000 views)
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: First plenary session: United States’ Strategic Partnerships in the
Indo-Pacific (over 8,500 views)
The IISS website was a key communication channel and provided information such as speaker agendas and content related
to themes and topics of the Shangri-La Dialogue. It also offered
customised landing pages for special sessions and the Southeast
Asian Young Leaders’ Programme. Throughout the event, the
website was updated with audio recordings, transcripts and
additional information on a rolling basis and promoted via our
social media channels. The bespoke web pages were viewed
over 64,000 times during the week of the Dialogue.
We introduced individual web pages for all sessions
to support an engaging user experience on www.iiss.org.
Each page includes speech and Q&A transcripts, embedded
recordings and Flickr images.
Selected digital engagement and media coverage
79
IISS Flickr account
IISS Sounds Strategic
The five most viewed web pages:
• Shangri-La Dialogue 2024 (event page) (over
58,000 views)
• Speaker Agenda (over 6,500 views)
• Seventh Plenary (over 2,500 views)
• Fifth Plenary (over 1,500 views)
• Keynote Address (over 1,400 views)
• Southeast Asian Young Leaders’ Programme
(over 1,000 views)
The IISS website also included a link to the IISS Flickr
account with highlights from the event.
Our social media and website activities were complemented by special podcast episodes on Sounds Strategic,
generating over 3,300 downloads across podcast platforms:
• Pre-event: Sounds Strategic podcast host Meia
Nouwens was joined by IISS experts Evan A.
Laksmana, Julia Voo, Nick Childs and Viraj
Solanki to discuss the upcoming event: IISS
Shangri-La Dialogue 2024.
• Post-event: Nouwens was joined by IISS experts
Dr Bastian Giegerich, Veerle Nouwens, Dr Ben
80
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Schreer and Morgan Michaels to discuss the
key themes and takeaways from the Dialogue
on the Sounds Strategic podcast episode IISS
Shangri-La Dialogue 2024: Reflections.
The IISS blogs highlighted themes and topics of the Dialogue
and were viewed over 10,000 times globally.
ONLINE ANALYSIS
MEDIA ENGAGEMENT HIGHLIGHTS
Navigating small-state security in the Indo-Pacific (iiss.org)
by Viraj Solanki and Antoine Levesques
A special session at the 21st IISS Shangri-La Dialogue will
discuss small island and littoral states’ growing defence
cooperation with major powers, and their prospects for
shaping it to their advantage.
A large number of media personnel were present at this
year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, with the IISS proud to accommodate over 40 media outlets from around the world. Nearly
300 journalists and broadcasters attended the Dialogue to
record and observe events. Here follows a selection of news
articles and opinion pieces written by members of the media
who attended the Dialogue.
The IISS celebrated the 21st edition of the IISS Shangri-La
Dialogue with its global audiences. Convened by the IISS,
the world’s media and key opinion formers on security
issues in the Asia-Pacific region and beyond gathered at
the Dialogue in Singapore. Together, they led the news and
drove key conversations online, communicating to their
readers, viewers and followers the complexities, subtleties
and advantages that in-person defence diplomacy can provide to an increasingly insecure region.
Coming of age? European defence engagement in the
Indo-Pacific (iiss.org) by Ben Schreer
European defence engagement with the Indo-Pacific is
increasing. 2024 and 2025 will see expanded deployments
and greater participation in regional exercises. This growing presence will face challenges, however, including
limited resources and US–China competition.
Contested connectivity: cyber threats in the Asia-Pacific
(iiss.org) by Julia Voo
Facing increasing threats in cyberspace, the region is building resilience through partnerships with allied governments
and industry.
Myanmar policy at a crossroads (iiss.org) by Morgan Michaels
In light of the junta’s increasingly tenuous hold on
Myanmar’s key strategic areas, neighbouring states are
having to confront the possibility of regime collapse and
rethink their relationships with the country’s various opposition actors.
MILITARY BALANCE BLOG
PLA remains focused on the Asia-Pacific and building
resilience (iiss.org) by Meia Nouwens
China’s growing assertiveness and capability advances may
make it more difficult for Beijing to paint itself as a peaceful
and stabilising actor in the Asia-Pacific region at this year’s
IISS Shangri-La Dialogue that kicks off 31 May.
The AUKUS balancing act is not getting easier (iiss.org)
by Nick Childs
The AUKUS partners point to real progress in the past
year but many of the challenges in delivering nuclearpowered submarines to Australia and co-developing a
range of advanced defence technologies look as great
as ever.
Asian defence spending grows, China’s grows more (iiss.org)
by Fenella McGerty
Security concerns are propelling defence spending in Asia,
but despite national increases, China now represents near
half of total regional military expenditure.
Guardian
2 June 2024
Zelenskiy accuses China of
deterring countries from
going to peace summit
Volodomyr Zelenskiy has accused China of discouraging other countries from attending a peace summit
in Switzerland later this month that is aimed at bringing
peace to war-ravaged Ukraine.
Speaking at Asia’s biggest security conference, the
Shangri-La Dialogue, in Singapore, the Ukrainian president
sought to rally support among Asia-Pacific nations, urging
them to attend the Swiss meeting.
‘The world has to be resilient, it needs to be strong, it has
to pressure Russia,’ Zelenskiy said. ‘There is no other way
to stop Putin – only diplomatic isolation, a strong Ukrainian
military and for all the countries of the world to not balance
between Ukraine and Russia but to defend international justice and law.’
Zelenskiy said he was ‘disappointed’ some world leaders had not yet confirmed attendance.
Russia was seeking to undermine the summit by warning countries not to attend and threatening a blockade of
agricultural goods and food products, he said.
He later told media that China had supported such efforts
to deter leaders from participating. ‘Regrettably, Russia,
using Chinese influence on the region, using Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the peace summit. It is
unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country
as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,’ he said.
Since a phone call between Zelenskiy and the Chinese
president, Xi Jinping, one year ago, Ukraine had sought
Selected digital engagement and media coverage
81
meetings with Chinese officials at all levels, he said, but
this had not been granted. He had not met Chinese officials
despite their presence in Singapore.
Earlier on Sunday, the Chinese defence minister, Dong
Jun, told attendees of the Shangri-La Dialogue his country
had ‘been promoting peace talks with a responsible attitude’. ‘We have never provided weapons to either party
of the conflict. We have put stricter control on the export
of dual use items and have never done anything to fan the
flames. We stand firmly on the side of peace and dialogue,’
Dong said.
But Zelenskiy said: ‘With China’s support to Russia, the
war will last longer and that is bad for the whole world.
You cannot say that we accept sovereignty and territorial
integrity of Ukraine and at the same time be on the side of
the country that violates the principles of the UN charter
and the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity
of Ukraine.’
Zelenskiy said on X he had met the US defence secretary, Lloyd Austin, on the sidelines of the Shangri-La
Dialogue on Sunday morning. ‘We discussed the key issues:
the defence needs of our country, bolstering Ukraine’s air
defence system, the F-16 coalition, and drafting of a bilateral
security agreement,’ he said.
He said he was grateful to Joe Biden for his decision to
allow Ukraine to use US-supplied weapons against targets
in Russia. However, in comments to media he said that this
was not enough as Ukraine still did not have the systems or
permissions to target airfields from which Russia was ‘permanently firing’.
©Guardian
Reprinted with permission
Washington Post
2 June 2024
U.S. and China lay out competing
security visions for Asia-Pacific
Defense leaders from the United States and China laid
out their competing visions of a modern security order
in the Indo-Pacific this weekend, with the American side
championing Washington’s expanded network of security
partnerships, while Chinese officials promoted their own
such alliances and cast the United States as a foreign aggressor meddling in Asian affairs.
Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese
counterpart, Dong Jun, each delivered addresses at the
Shangri-La Dialogue, an annual international security conference in Singapore — one of the rare settings
that brings senior officials from the rival militaries into
proximity with one another through panel discussions,
dinners and cocktail hours in a luxury hotel. Austin and
82
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Dong also met on the summit’s sidelines on Friday, their
first meeting in two years.
Competing rhetoric over the course of the weekend’s
debates — much of it referencing recent events, such as
China’s spate of large-scale military exercises around
Taiwan less than two weeks ago — underscored the sense
that regional tensions have grown increasingly incendiary.
The dialogue also allowed the two powers to make their
arguments before an international audience of their peers,
including defense officials from nearby South Korea, Japan,
Vietnam, Indonesia, the Philippines, Cambodia and others
— themselves the targets of U.S. and Chinese influence campaigns and the often uncomfortable bystanders to a global
strategic power struggle.
Both Austin and Dong appealed to shared values and a
respect for international law, without mentioning the other’s
country by name, at a conference that nonetheless revolved
almost entirely around the U.S.-China relationship.
In his address to the conference Saturday, Austin
stressed the United States’ vast and expanding network of
security partnerships in the Indo-Pacific — a clear warning to Beijing, observers said, that further Chinese military
aggression in the region could prompt a U.S. response.
‘We are operating with our allies and partners like
never before,’ Austin said, noting that the United States has
recently ‘secured a series of historic agreements with our
allies and partners to transform our force posture throughout the Indo-Pacific’.
U.S., Japanese and South Korean forces are training together in ‘unprecedented’ ways, he said.
The United States and the Philippines, along with
Australia and France, recently completed their largest
annual Balikatan joint naval exercise. The United States
has also forged new levels of defense cooperation with
Australia, Japan, South Korea, Papua New Guinea and
the Philippines.
And this was ‘just a starting point,’ Austin added. ‘We
are on the verge of even more powerful changes’ in U.S.
force posture in the Indo-Pacific, he said.
Dong’s remarks on Sunday largely mirrored Austin’s
rhetoric but flipped the claims of respect for international order and allegations of unlawful aggression
to blame Washington and its allies and partners. It is
China that is committed to peace and that has exercised tremendous ‘restraint’ in the Asia-Pacific region,
Dong said, alluding to the United States — without
naming it — as a nefarious outsider seeking to influence the affairs of a region where it doesn’t belong.
China, too, has vast strategic partnerships around the
world, Dong said, as well as the ability and willingness
to arm and train other countries in the region. ‘We have
a well-established system of military education, and we
are ready to provide greater support to other countries in
personnel training and offer tailored courses to meet different needs,’ he said.
In remarks that hewed closely to Beijing’s usual talking points, Dong described China’s aspirations to live in a
‘multipolar world’ — as opposed to one dominated by the
United States — and appealed to the rest of the region’s
‘unique Asian wisdom’ and shared experience of “imperialism” from outside forces.
China’s disputes with Taiwan and in the South China
Sea were regional issues best resolved between regional
states, not by outsiders, he said — again, without referring
to the United States.
‘Anyone who dares to separate Taiwan from China will
only end up in self-destruction,’ Dong warned.
The growing frustration felt by many of China’s
regional neighbors over Chinese intimidation at sea, as
well as the criminal and cyberthreats posed by Chinese
state-affiliated companies, was also palpable over the
weekend, as academics and representatives of other Asian
countries that have drawn closer to the United States in
recent months picked apart Dong’s claims and accused
China of dishonesty.
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., in his opening remarks Friday night, laid out what many interpreted as
a warning to China, referring to the ‘illegal, coercive, aggressive and deceptive actions’ that were undermining regional
security in territorial waters claimed by the Philippines — a
likely reference to intensifying aggression by the Chinese
coast guard and maritime militia that has regularly blocked
the passage of Philippine ships near disputed islands in
recent months.
Marcos’s remarks illustrated the sharp pivot the
Philippine government has taken in the past two years,
aligning itself more closely with Washington and breaking with the previous administration’s more deferential
approach to China. Any ‘willful’ act that led to deaths of
Filipinos during the standoff with China would be considered an ‘act of war,’ triggering a U.S. military response
under the countries’ mutual defense treaty, Marcos said.
Others also raised objections.
During a question-and-answer session following Dong’s speech on Sunday, Chung Min Lee, an
expert on Korean and Northeast Asian security at the
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, addressed
the minister sharply, laying out the contradictions
between Dong’s claims of peace and cooperation from
the podium and the state-backed cyberattacks against
China’s neighbors, its support for North Korea’s dictatorship and the threatening behaviors of its coast guard
in contested waters.
‘How can we trust you when your words and your
actions are totally opposite?’ Lee asked, prompting applause
from the multinational audience.
Meanwhile, when a Chinese military officer and academic at China’s Institute of War Studies, Sr. Col. Cao
Yanzhong, suggested Saturday that NATO expansion in
Europe ‘led to the Ukraine crisis’, Austin garnered applause
when he said he ‘respectfully’ disagreed with that claim.
‘I thought it was striking that there was spontaneous
and widespread applause,’ said Sen. Chris Coons (D-Del.),
who attended the conference after meeting with officials
in Taiwan and the Philippines. The notion that the United
States and NATO set off the Ukraine war is ‘a narrative that
I hear a lot in the Global South,’ he said.
The United States has been able to expand its strategic
alliances in the Indo-Pacific ‘in large measure because of
the aggressiveness of China’, Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska),
another member of the Senate delegation to Singapore,
told reporters.
To the smaller nations of Southeast Asia, China is an
inescapable ‘geopolitical fact’, Bilahari Kausikan, former
ambassador at large for Singapore’s Foreign Ministry, said
in an interview. But there is also a growing, albeit often
unspoken, acceptance that the United States, too, is an
‘irreplaceable part of the security balance’, Bilahari said.
‘That is not so much a success for U.S. policy as a failure of
Chinese policy.’
Even as some Asian officials brooked stronger public dissent with China than in previous years, many were cautious
not to take their criticism too far.
Wang Dong, a scholar at Peking University and member
of the Chinese delegation to Singapore, observed that
no other country’s officials made statements as strong as
Marcos’s, saying: ‘The absence of public support for the
Marcos position speaks volumes about what other regional
countries consider a pragmatic approach.’
Dewi Fortuna Anwar, an Indonesian academic, worried
during a question-and-answer session whether the twists
and turns of the U.S.–China relationship would leave the
rest of the region ‘trampled’. And Singaporean Defense
Minister Ng Eng Hen stressed that the region found
Washington’s and Beijing’s stated aversion to conflict ‘reassuring’ but also said that ‘most of us here would agree
that the U.S. and China are the dominant factors to decide
Asia’s fate of this decade and beyond.’
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who made
a late arrival to the conference Sunday, also trod carefully
around China, criticizing its alleged arms support for Russia
but also appealing to Beijing to participate in Ukraine’s
upcoming peace summit in Switzerland.
‘We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelensky
said during a news conference. ‘We respect each voice,
each territory. … We want Asia to know what is going on
in Ukraine.’
©Washington Post
Reprinted with permission
Selected digital engagement and media coverage
83
Telegraph
2 June 2024
Taiwan separatists will be
‘crushed to pieces’, warns China
Taiwan separatists will be ‘crushed to pieces’, China warned
at a defence summit on Sunday.
Admiral Dong Jun, used a significant portion of his
speech at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore to lash out
at the incoming administration of Lai Ching-te, the newly
elected Taiwanese president, whom Beijing regards as a
‘dangerous separatist’.
China regards the self-ruling democracy of Taiwan as a
breakaway province that must reunify with the mainland.
Adml Dong said that his military was ready to ‘forcefully’ stop attempts by Taiwan from gaining independence.
His comments come a week after China held military ‘punishment’ drills around Taiwan, warning of the risk
of conflict after Mr Lai’s inauguration.
The president’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) was
pursuing separatism in an incremental way and erasing
Taiwan’s Chinese identity, alleged Adml Dong.
‘They [“separatists”] will be nailed to the pillar of
shame in history,’ he told a crowded room of Asia-Pacific,
European and US defence and intelligence officials.
‘The Chinese People’s Liberation Army has always been
an indestructible and powerful force in defence of the unification of the motherland, and it will act resolutely and
forcefully at all times to curb the independence of Taiwan
and to ensure that it never succeeds in its attempts,’ he said.
‘Whoever dares to split Taiwan from China will be
crushed to pieces and suffer his own destruction.’
After being sworn into office, Mr Lai invited China to
engage in dialogue with Taiwan and urged Beijing to ‘jointly
shoulder the important responsibility of regional stability’.
But the Chinese Communist Party, which claims Taiwan
as its own territory despite never ruling there, has snubbed
his attempts to talk.
The three-day security forum in Singapore has been
dominated by the strategic rivalry between the United
States and China and its impact on the Indo-Pacific region.
Adml Dong, who met with Lloyd Austin, the US defence
secretary, for the first time face-to-face on Friday, said that
more dialogue was necessary because of the differences
between the two militaries.
‘We have always been open to exchanges and cooperation, but this requires both sides to meet each other
halfway,’ he said.
But he also criticised Washington for its support for
the Philippines, which has a number of territorial disputes
with Beijing in the South China Sea, and for Taiwan, which
receives much of its weaponry from the United States.
84
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
‘We will not allow anyone to bring geopolitical conflicts
or any war, whether hot or cold, into our region,’ he said.
‘We will not allow any country or any force to create conflict and chaos in our region.’
©Telegraph
Reprinted with permission
Straits Times
3 June 2024
Shangri-La Dialogue’s success comes
from not skirting issues: Ng Eng Hen
The yardstick for measuring the success of security forums
like the Shangri-La Dialogue should be whether real issues
have been brought up and discussed, said Singapore’s
Defence Minister Ng Eng Hen.
And in his eyes, the dialogue, which ran from May 31 to
June 2, has been a success.
The thorny issues of territories contested in the South
China Sea and Taiwan’s independence were brought up and
discussions were held frankly and robustly, and at a high
level, he pointed out.
He cited the examples of China’s Defence Minister Dong
Jun making clear his country’s stance on Taiwan in his plenary on June 2, as well as Philippine President Ferdinand
Marcos Jr warning of repercussions in the event of Filipino
deaths in the South China Sea during his keynote speech on
the opening evening.
Dr Ng, who spoke to reporters on the afternoon of the
event’s final day, noted that such forums are not the same as
bilateral or multilateral negotiations, where more concrete
outcomes are sought.
‘That would be a very high bar,’ he said.
Instead, the defence and security professionals who participated in the 2024 Shangri-La Dialogue would have come
away with a deeper feel of the thorny issues.
Dr Ng, on the morning of June 2, also spoke at the seventh
plenary session of the dialogue, where he expressed appreciation to the participants for attending the event, and for their
willingness to engage, listen, and sometimes do verbal combat.
The Shangri-La Dialogue, which is in its 21st edition this
year, has come of age, he noted.
‘I think it’s a bit more realistic, less idealistic, but
more practical.’
Dr Ng said he was asked by reporters about his experiences with international counterparts at other similar
events, such as the Xiangshan Forum in China.
These events tended to reflect the culture of their host
countries, said Dr Ng.
He noted that difficult questions were posed in public
at Western security forums, while they would appear to be
impolite at the Xiangshan Forum.
Nevertheless, he noted that 2024’s delegation from
China at the Shangri-La Dialogue has learnt from their past
participation, observing that they were quick to call for their
own press conferences to issue their own rebuttals and to
get their point across.
Touching on Admiral Dong’s debut speech at the plenary session, where the Defence Minister spoke about
China’s approach to global security, Dr Ng said it was very
clear and articulated China’s point of view.
Dr Ng said that the increasing popularity of the
Shangri-La Dialogue was a good outcome, with an increasing number of countries seeking opportunities for their
leaders and defence officials to speak at the event.
This has resulted in an increase in the number of special
sessions at 2024’s event to cater to the increased demand for
speaking opportunities.
The complexity of the logistics needed for the event’s
dinner has also been increasing, as more heads of states are
now coming, which Dr Ng welcomed.
©Straits Times
Reprinted with permission
New York Times
2 June 2024
In Singapore, China Warns U.S.
While Zelensky Seeks Support
The annual Shangri-La Dialogue became a stage for competing demands on U.S. global power, including the war in
Ukraine and tensions over Taiwan.
The competing strains on U.S. global power came into
sharp focus at a security conference on Sunday, where China
accused the United States of stoking tensions around Taiwan
and the South China Sea, and President Volodymyr Zelensky of
Ukraine was seeking greater support for his embattled country.
These scenes played out at the Shangri-La Dialogue, an
annual security forum in Singapore that has long been a
barometer of the ups and downs of U.S.-China relations.
This year, the United States Defense Secretary Lloyd J.
Austin III and China’s defense minister, Adm. Dong Jun,
held talks, something the top defense officials from the
two countries have not always done at this gathering. But
Admiral Dong made clear that China remained deeply
antagonistic to U.S. influence and alliance-building across
Asia, especially American support for Taiwan, the island
democracy that Beijing claims as its territory.
‘These malign intentions are drawing Taiwan to the dangers of war,’ Admiral Dong told the meeting after making
an oblique but unmistakable reference to U.S. military and
political support for Taiwan. ’’Anyone who dares split
Taiwan from China will be smashed to pieces and court
their own destruction.’’
Admiral Dong’s warnings, like other combative comments from Chinese military officers at the meeting,
reflected how Beijing and Washington remain sharply
divided over some fundamental regional issues, even as
they discuss ways to keep military friction at sea and in the
air from spiraling into crisis.
Last month, China held two days of menacing military
exercises around Taiwan, accusing its new president, Lai
Ching-te, of trying to advance independence for the island.
Mr. Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party has asserted that
Taiwan has a separate status, though Mr. Lai has indicated
that he will not seek outright independence.
Mr. Austin warned in a speech on Saturday against
‘’actions in this region that erode the status quo and threaten
peace and stability,’’ an indirect reference to Chinese pressure on Taiwan. Mr. Austin also said ’’we all share an
interest in ensuring that the South China Sea remains open
and free,’’ despite Chinese territorial claims across the sea.
But Admiral Dong accused an unnamed Southeast Asian
country – clearly the Philippines – of stirring up trouble
over disputed islands and shoals in the sea, and again suggested that the United States was the real culprit.
‘A certain country, incited by external forces, has abandoned bilateral agreements, broken its promises, and taken
premeditated action to stir up incidents,’ he said in his speech
to diplomats, military officials and experts, many from Asian
countries. ’China has exercised sufficient restraint in responding to these provocations, but this restraint has its limits.’
The Philippines has been at odds with China over their
rival claims in the South China Sea, in an area that Manila
calls the West Philippine Sea. In 2016, an international tribunal under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the
Sea rejected China’s expansive claims in the South China
Sea, which included shoals near the Philippines. Beijing
ignored that ruling.
At the meeting in Singapore, the president of the
Philippines, Ferdinand Marcos Jr., warned on Friday that
his government could call on support from the United States
under a mutual defense treaty in the event that a Chinese
vessel caused the death of a Philippine sailor.
A U.S. official who heard Admiral Dong’s speech took
issue with his portrayal of China and its People’s Liberation
Army as the innocent victim in regional disputes. The
official, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss geopolitical tensions, said the admiral’s assertion was at odds
with the Chinese military’s ‘coercive activity’ in the region.
Even in Singapore, Mr. Austin and other Western officials were also reminded that Ukraine’s more than two-year
war against Russian invasion continues to demand their
leaders’ attention and their taxpayers’ resources.
Mr. Zelensky was a last-minute addition to the gathering. He met on Sunday with Mr. Austin, who provided
an update on U.S. security assistance, according to a
Selected digital engagement and media coverage
85
Pentagon readout of the meeting, before Mr. Zelensky
addressed the conference.
Faced with Russian military advances in his country, Mr.
Zelensky has been urging the United States and Europe to
step up support for his forces and overcome fears about letting Ukraine fire American missiles and other weapons at
military targets inside Russia.
He was greeted with loud applause before delivering a
15-minute speech promoting a peace summit on Ukraine in
Switzerland next month that he said officials from 106 countries had agreed to join. He appealed to leaders across the
Indo-Pacific to support the gathering with their attendance
or ideas.
‘We are ready to hear various proposals and thoughts
that lead not to the continuation of the war – and this is very
important – but to the end,’ he said. He added that only
diplomacy with persistence would end the conflict.
‘The world has to be resilient; it has to be strong; it has to
put pressure on Russia,’ he told the gathering. ‘There is no
other way to stop Putin.’
Analysts said his appearance showed the increased
interconnectedness among security issues worldwide.
‘It’s a reminder to countries in Asia and the Indo-Pacific
that the war taking place in Ukraine isn’t just a European
problem. It’s a problem for the world,’ said Bonnie S.
Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at
the German Marshall Fund of the United States.
‘Zelensky recognizes that he has to go out and
remind the world to continue to support the fight that
his country is engaged in,’ said Ms. Glaser, who was at
the Singapore conference.
Mr. Zelensky said on social media that he also had met
with U.S. Congress members at the gathering in Singapore,
including Representative Michael McCaul of Texas, a
Republican who is the chairman of the House Foreign
Affairs Committee. Mr. Zelensky thanked him for helping
win approval in April for additional military assistance for
Ukraine, but also suggested more was needed.
‘We talked about the frontline situation and military
assistance, particularly additional systems and missiles to
strengthen our air defense,’ Mr. Zelensky said.
©New York Times
Reprinted with permission
Politico
4 June 2024
Beijing riles Zelenskyy and Marcos
Hello China watchers. This is Stuart Lau in Singapore,
covering the Shangri-La Dialogue this past weekend with
my colleagues Suzanne Lynch and Zoya Sheftalovich.
Your U.S.–China dossier will come from Phelim Kine on
Thursday, as usual.
86
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Thirty five years ago today: Nothing happened in
Tiananmen Square, according to China. (Even though the
military crackdown of student protests at Tiananmen Square
was well-documented all over the world.)
Ukraine gets tough on China
Angry at Putin’s best buddy: Arriving in Singapore via
Stockholm and Abu Dhabi, Ukraine’s President Volodymyr
Zelenskyy didn’t disappoint the hundreds of journalists
cramped in the Shangri-La Hotel in Singapore, where Asia’s
premier security conference took place last weekend.
He issued a rare rebuke of Beijing, after years of careful
attempts to court China and peel it away from its ’no limits’
friendship with Russia.
‘Russia, using Chinese influence on the region, using
Chinese diplomats also, does everything to disrupt the
peace summit,’ Zelenskyy said Sunday during a press conference, referring to the planned event in Switzerland on
June 15-16.
He went on to paint China as Russia’s military
backer. ‘We do not expect military support from China. We
have never asked them … But we do not expect China to
provide defense support to Russia,’ Zelenskyy said.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping ‘promised me China would
stand aside, would not support Russia with weapons.
Today, there is intelligence that somehow, some way, some
things come to Russia’s markets via China … elements of
Russia’s weaponry come from China,’ he added.
Xi ghosts me: ‘Many times we have wanted to meet
Chinese representatives,’ including Xi, Zelenskyy said.
’Unfortunately, Ukraine does not have any powerful connections with China because China does not want it.’ Read
here for the full story by Zoya, Suzanne and Stuart.
Ukraine plays nice with China no more: Zelenskyy’s
unusually harsh stance on Beijing comes shortly after China
refused to take part in the Swiss summit. China says it’s
impossible for it to go, as Russia’s not invited.
China hit back at Zelenskyy: Beijing, which won’t show
up at the Swiss conference, ‘[is] certainly not against the
peace summit hosted by Switzerland’, Chinese Foreign
Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning told journalists on
Monday, in response to Zelenskyy’s criticism.
‘Hegemony and strong-arm politics is not China’s diplomatic style … There is no such thing as exerting pressure
on other countries.’ She added that China ‘also values the
relationship with Ukraine’.
China in Shangri-La
Beijing ain’t here to make friends: while few expected
China’s new Defense Minister Adm. Dong Jun to go soft at
Shangri-La, many delegates were still surprised at his harsh
words on Taiwan and the Philippines, two of the biggest
headaches facing China’s policymakers.
Fighting talk: ‘China stays committed to peaceful reunification. However, this prospect is increasingly being eroded by
separatists for Taiwan independence and foreign forces,’ Dong
said. ‘We will take resolute actions to curb Taiwan independence and make sure such a plot never succeeds.’
U.S. calls for calm: The Chinese military action was
worrying enough to prompt U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd
Austin to urge Dong not to ‘use Taiwan’s political transition — part of a normal, routine democratic process — as a
pretext for coercive measures’.
The bilateral meeting also saw Austin make clear ‘that
the United States will continue to fly, sail, and operate
— safely and responsibly — wherever international law
allows.’ He ‘underscored the importance of respect for high
seas freedom of navigation guaranteed under international
law, especially in the South China Sea’, the Pentagon said
in a statement.
Let’s talk: Austin and his Chinese counterpart will
launch a bilateral grouping to address potential U.S.-China
military crises. The two officials discussed ‘plans to convene a crisis-communications working group by the end
of the year’, in their first-ever meeting on Friday. Senior
former military officials have warned that the current state
of U.S.-China military crisis communications systems are
highly unreliable.
EU meets Dong: The new Chinese defense chief met the
EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell and French minister of
the armed forces Sébastien Lecornu. Borrell told POLITICO
he had a ‘robust’ meeting with Dong, saying he raised
concerns over Taiwan and circumvention of EU sanctions
against Russia.
The French, meanwhile, called on China to do more
on nuclear non-proliferation, and discussed with Dong
the side-by-side military bases in the East African state of
Djibouti, with Paris keen on maintaining communication
with Beijing on the activities of the two bases.
Dutch warship: Dutch Defense Minister Kajsa
Ollongren wasn’t pleased with China’s behavior in the
South China Sea. Speaking to China Watcher in Singapore,
Ollongren said while a Dutch warship passed through the
Taiwan Strait uneventfully, a Dutch helicopter was being
followed by a Chinese counterpart, despite the airspace
being international. ‘That was remarkable,’ she said. ‘We
were in international waters, and our helicopter was in the
air, but also in the international part.’
Next big problem — Philippines: Apart from Taiwan,
China also got furious about the Philippines, whose
President Ferdinand ‘Bongbong’ Marcos used an opening
speech at Shangri-La to hit out at Beijing’s maritime behavior, warning that the killing of a Filipino citizen in such
incidents could be construed as an act of war.
Crossing the Rubicon: ‘We had already suffered injury,
but thank God, we have not yet gotten to the point where
any of our participants, civilian or otherwise, have been
killed,’ said Marcos. ‘But once we get to that point, certainly
we would have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line?
Almost certainly it’s going to be a red line.’
Beijing retorts: ‘Those remarks disregard history and
facts and are designed to amplify the Philippines’ wrongful
position on the issues concerning the South China Sea and
deliberately distort and hype up the maritime situation,’
the Chinese Foreign Ministry said in a lengthy response.
The Philippines, it went on, ‘frequently infringed on
China’s rights, accusing Manila of provoking the Chinese
coast guard.
Looking at you, Washington: ‘Who exactly does the
Philippine foreign policy serve now? Whose bidding is
the Philippines doing with all these maritime actions?’ the
Chinese government statement said. ‘The answer is pretty
clear to anyone with sound judgement.’
Commerce chiefs in Europe
Trade chiefs back in Europe: Less than two months after
a visit to France, China’s Commerce Minister Wang
Wentao was back in Europe again, as Beijing makes a lastminute diplomatic charm offensive against the EU’s plan
to impose tariffs on Chinese electric vehicles. Speaking in
Spain on Sunday, Wang threatened to take retaliatory action
if the EU were to do so.
‘China takes note of the repeated remarks by the French,
German and EU leaders to avoid a trade war,’ Wang said. ‘If
the Europeans act differently, and keep suppressing Chinese
companies, China will take all necessary measures to firmly
safeguard the legitimate interests of Chinese businesses.’
‘The risk of China-EU trade friction is constantly on the
rise,’ he added.
What did he see? An EV plant of course! During
his Spanish visit, Wang checked out a plant co-run by
Spain’s auto company Ebro-EV Motors and China’s Chery
Automobile. The plant is one of China’s moves to localize
electric vehicle production on European soil. Wang had this
message to Chery’s management: Speed up the production
line, help contribute to Spain’s economy and employment.
‘Europe should abandon protectionism,’ Wang added.
Deputy in Greece: Vice Commerce Minister Ling
Ji meanwhile also spent his weekend in Europe. Inspecting
Chinese companies in Greece, Ling had an even tougher
message for Europe. ‘Since this year, the EU has disregarded the complementary cooperation between China
and EU member states,’ Ling said. ‘China will absolutely
not allow the EU to play the old tricks again.’
UK–China
MI6 ‘spy’ under arrest: China on Monday accused Britain’s
Secret Intelligence Service (MI6) of recruiting a couple who
worked for the Beijing government to spy for the U.K., less
Selected digital engagement and media coverage
87
than a month after London arrested three people on suspicion of spying for the Hong Kong government.
The Chinese Ministry of State Security said on its WeChat
account that MI6 operatives convinced a man surnamed
Wang, who worked in a ‘core confidential role’ in the central state apparatus, to defect along with his wife, surnamed
Zhou. AFP has more.
Translating Washington
Campbell, Ma meeting readouts evoke yawns: Deputy
Secretary of State Kurt Campbell and visiting Chinese Vice
Foreign Minister Ma Zhaoxu recited their standard positions on
U.S.–China hot button issues in a meeting last week. Campbell
raised Biden administration concerns including tensions
across the Taiwan Strait, China Coast Guard incursions into
Philippine waters of the South China Sea and China’s support
for Russia’s war on Ukraine, said a State Department statement
published Friday. Ma parried with Beijing’s usual rebuttals
to those concerns while criticizing the administration’s China
policy of ‘seeking dialogue and cooperation while undermining China’s interests,’ said a Chinese Foreign Ministry readout
of the meeting published Friday. Ma spiced up his encounter
with Campbell by describing the Biden administration’s ‘small
yard and high fence’ strategy behind U.S. restrictions on high
technology exports to China as the ‘iron curtain in the big yard.’
New visa restrictions for HK officials: The Biden administration will impose visa restrictions on implicated Hong Kong
officials as a reprisal for the guilty verdicts against 14 of the
territory’s pro-democracy activists on Thursday. The administration ‘is taking steps to impose new visa restrictions on
PRC and Hong Kong officials responsible for implementing
the National Security Law’, State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said in a statement Friday. Lawmakers
are primed to pile-on. Congress ‘will consider a range of
actions to hold the PRC and the Hong Kong government
accountable for this grave injustice’, Senate Foreign Relations
Committee chair Ben Cardin (D-Md.) said in a statement
Friday. Hong Kong authorities aren’t pleased. The visa
restrictions ‘smack of despicable political manipulation to
intimidate PRC and HKSAR officials who resolutely safeguard national security’, the Hong Kong government said
in a statement Saturday.
Rahm roasts China’s Ukraine war narrative: U.S.
Ambassador to Japan, Rahm Emanuel, took to social media
to rebuke a Chinese military official who blamed Russia’s
war on Ukraine on NATO expansion in Europe. ‘China is lipsynching Russia’s excuse for its war with Ukraine by blaming
@NATO—the alliance didn’t expand east. Poland, Romania,
Lithuania, Latvia, and others expanded West,’ Emanuel
said on X on Sunday. That was a response to an assertion by
Chinese Snr. Col. Cao Yanzhong at the Shangri-La Dialogue
on Saturday that ’The eastern expansion of NATO has led to
the Ukraine crisis,’ per the Associated Press.
88
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
©Politico
Reprinted with permission
Nikkei Asia
3 June 2024
China vs. U.S., Zelenskyy
appears: 5 takeaways from
Shangri-La forum
High-ranking defense officials and government leaders from
around the world made contrasting arguments in working toward regional peace and stability over the weekend in
Singapore at the annual Shangri-La Dialogue security summit.
At times, delegates did not see eye-to-eye on a variety of
issues, with the event serving as a platform for the U.S. and
China to propose differing mechanisms for partnerships
and cooperation in the region.
The summit also threw a spotlight on drawn-out tensions
and conflicts, from maritime disputes in the South China Sea
to Israel’s military campaign in the Gaza Strip, as well as
Russia’s ongoing war with Ukraine, amid closed-door meetings involving top military brass as diplomacy was pursued
not just on the conference’s stage, but behind the scenes.
Here are five takeaways from the three-day event.
The U.S. and China offer competing visions for
regional cooperation
The world’s two largest economies presented distinct
pathways for regional cooperation at the Shangri-La
Dialogue. U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday
sold America›s vision of a sweeping network of partnerships with countries in the Indo-Pacific.
He described a ‘new convergence’ of stronger and more
resilient links in the region not tied to a single alliance or
coalition, but ‘overlapping and complementary initiatives
and institutions’. Austin emphasized that the U.S. is ‘all-in’
on its commitment to the Indo-Pacific.
His Chinese counterpart, Defense Minister Dong Jun, in
contrast, spoke of his country’s ‘five principles of peaceful
coexistence’ – mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial
integrity, mutual non-aggression, non-interference in each
other’s internal affairs, equality and mutual benefit, and
peaceful coexistence.
‘Our people are against any attempt to turn our countries into vassal states or draw us into bloc confrontations,’
he said. ‘Our people despise those who attempt to bolster
themselves by taking orders from hegemonic powers.’
China doubles down on its position on Taiwan
Amid ratcheting up of cross-strait tensions in recent weeks
as Taiwan welcomed its new President Lai Ching-te from
the island›s pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party,
China came out in force to reiterate its stand on the ’One
China’ policy – which rules out any separation from the
mainland of the territory.
The Communist Party government in Beijing sees
Taiwan as its own even though it has not controlled it, with
China’s Defense Minister Dong Jun spending half the time
of a question-and-answer session he participated in at the
Shangri-La Dialogue on Sunday staking his country’s claim
on the island.
Dong spoke strongly against Taiwan separatism,
talking of ‘resolute actions’ to curb any move toward
the island’s independence, while warning of ‘selfdestruction’ for those who dare keep the territory and
China apart.
‘We do not know what is “self-destruction”, but usually
China does not threaten outside of its zone of influence,’
Cedomir Nestorovic, professor of Geopolitics at ESSEC
Business School, told Nikkei Asia. ‘The term is vague, so it
is left for interpretation. Still, it is the first time China uses
this term.’
U.S. Defense Chief Lloyd Austin expressed concern on
Friday over ‘provocative’ activity by the Chinese People’s
Liberation Army. The comments came about a week after
China conducted large military drills encircling Taiwan and
its outlying islands.
Zelenskyy makes surprise visit, accuses China of undermining peace summit
In a surprise in-person appearance, Ukrainian President
Volodymyr Zelenskyy flew to Singapore to shore up support for a world ‘peace summit’ scheduled for June 15-16 in
Switzerland that will focus on nuclear security, food security
and humanitarian issues. One hundred six countries and 75
heads of state have confirmed their participation, he said.
‘We need the support of Asian countries,’ Zelenskyy
told reporters on Sunday. In particular, Ukraine has been
seeking to persuade more of the emerging countries of the
so-called Global South to attend, including China, which
has said it will not participate without representation from
Russia. China is seen as a vital pillar of support for Russian
President Vladimir Putin.
But the Ukrainian leader on Sunday accused Beijing of
working with Moscow to prevent countries from attending
the upcoming forum. Zelenskyy said Russia is using China’s
regional influence and its diplomats to disrupt the summit. ‘It
is unfortunate that such a big, independent, powerful country as China is an instrument in the hands of Putin,’ he said.
Philippines’ Marcos blasts China, bolsters South China
Sea stance
Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr., who delivered
the keynote speech at the forum, blasted China’s ‘illegal,
coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions’ without naming
the country. Responding to a Chinese general’s question,
Marcos curtly said that if South China Sea tensions result
in the death of a Filipino citizen, it would ‘be close to an act
of war.’
His response to the Chinese official’s question raised
the stakes, particularly on what incidents could trigger the
1951 Mutual Defense Treaty with the U.S. In previous pronouncements, Marcos said the treaty would be invoked if a
Filipino serviceman died from a foreign attack.
‘I hope that gives China some pause,’ Julio Amador,
CEO of Amador Research Services in Manila, told Nikkei
Asia. ‘Because that would mean that what they’re doing will
be a trigger to invoking the treaty.’
Filipino officials who attended the forum, including
Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro, said in a statement
following his Saturday meeting with his U.S. counterpart
Lloyd Austin that the U.S. welcomed Marcos’ ‘eloquent’
keynote speech.
Philippine coast guard chief Admiral Ronnie Gavan
told reporters he was pleased with Marcos’ speech, noting
humanitarian missions to Scarborough Shoal will continue
‘because it is our fundamental duty to defend and protect.’
Indonesia and Malaysia voice concern over Israel-Hamas war
Despite being geographically distant from the AsiaPacific, the ongoing Middle East crisis was among the
focal points at the Singapore security forum, with defense
leaders of the Muslim-majority nations Indonesia and
Malaysia voicing concerns over the dire situation in the
Gaza Strip.
In a special address on Saturday, Indonesia’s Defense
Minister and President-elect Prabowo Subianto said the
new proposal from Israel calling for a cease-fire with the
Palestinian group Hamas is an ‘important right step’ to end
the eight-month war. Indonesia, the world’s most populous
Muslim nation, has no formal ties with Israel.
As part of this new proposal, Prabowo vowed
Indonesia is ready to contribute ‘significant’ peacekeeping forces to maintain and monitor the prospective
cease-fire if needed and requested by the United Nations.
The incoming leader said the Southeast Asian country is
also prepared to evacuate and treat up to 1,000 patients
from Gaza.
During the final session on Sunday, Malaysian Defense
Minister Mohamed Khaled Nordin applauded Prabowo’s
remarks, echoing the comments that Kuala Lumpur ‘certainly welcomes and supports any proposal’ that will
achieve the immediate and permanent cease-fire.
The Malaysian defense chief concluded his speech by
suggesting the annual Singapore defense forum invite a
representative from Palestine for future events.
©Nikkei Asia
Reprinted with permission
Selected digital engagement and media coverage
89
APPENDIX II
Selected IISS publications
The Strategic Dossier series harnesses the Institute’s
technical expertise to present detailed information
on key strategic issues. Recent publications include:
Lotje Boswinkel, ‘Forever Bound? Japan’s Road to Self-defence
and the US Alliance’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024,
pp. 105–28.
IISS, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2024 (London:
IISS, 2024)
Andrew Carr, ‘Australia’s Archipelagic Deterrence’, Survival,
vol. 65, no. 4, August–September 2023, pp. 79–100.
IISS, Asia-Pacific Regional Security Assessment 2023 (London:
IISS, 2023)
Nick Childs, ‘The AUKUS Anvil: Promise and Peril’, Survival,
vol. 65, no. 5, October–November 2023, pp. 7–24.
Survival: Global Politics and Strategy, the
Institute’s bimonthly journal, is a leading forum for
analysis and debate of international and strategic
affairs. Recent articles of interest include:
James Crabtree and Evan A. Laksmana, ‘The Philippines’
Surprising Veer West’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 3, June–July
2023, pp. 81–9.
James Adams, David C. Gompert and Thomas Knudson,
‘From Quad to Quint? Vietnam’s Strategic Potential’,
Survival, vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 57–65.
Toby Dalton and Jina Kim, ‘Rethinking Arms Control with a
Nuclear North Korea’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–
March 2023, pp. 21–48.
Jon B. Alterman, ‘The “China Model” in the Middle East’,
Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 75–98.
Linde Desmaele, ‘US Security Assurances and Nuclear
Tripolarity’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024,
pp. 143–56.
Hans Binnendijk and David C. Gompert, ‘Towards Nuclear
Stewardship with China’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–
March 2023, pp. 7–20.
James Dobbins, ‘War With China’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4,
August–September 2023, pp. 221–38. [Originally published
in 2012]
90
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
Mathieu Duchâtel, ‘Europe’s China Problem: How Not to
Feed Beijing’s Military-Civil Fusion’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4,
August–September 2023, pp. 55–78.
Andrew B. Kennedy, ‘The Resiliency Requirement:
Responding to China’s Rise as a Technology Power’,
Survival, vol. 65, no. 1, February–March 2023, pp. 115–28.
Lynn Kuok, ‘Asia’s Ukraine Problem’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2,
April–May 2023, pp. 43–51.
Lynn Kuok, ‘China’s Legal Diplomacy’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6,
December 2023–January 2024, pp. 159–78.
Charlie Laderman, ‘Time Is Short: Ukraine, Taiwan and the
Echoes of 1941’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 6, December 2023–
January 2024, pp. 77–90.
Francis J. Gavin, The Taming of Scarcity and the Problems of
Plenty: Rethinking International Relations and American
Grand Strategy in a New Era, Adelphi 502–504 (Abingdon:
Routledge for the IISS, 2024).
Robert Ward, Yuka Koshino and Matthieu Lebreton (eds),
Japan and the IISS: Connecting Western and Japanese Strategic
Thought from the Cold War to the War on Ukraine, Adelphi 498–
501 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).
Iskander Rehman, Planning for Protraction: A Historically
Informed Approach to Great-power War and Sino-US
Competition, Adelphi 496–497 (Abingdon: Routledge for the
IISS, 2023).
Zeno Leoni and Sarah Tzinieris, ‘The Return of Geopolitical
Blocs’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 37–54.
Lawrence Freedman and Heather Williams, Changing the
Narrative: Information Campaigns, Strategy and Crisis
Escalation in the Digital Age, Adelphi 493–495 (Abingdon:
Routledge for the IISS, 2023).
Antoine Levesques, ‘India’s Fraying Restraint’, Survival, vol.
66, no. 2, April–May 2024, pp. 63–71.
Euan Graham, Australia’s Security in China’s Shadow, Adelphi
490–492 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2023).
Baocheng Liu and Hilton L. Root, ‘The United States, China
and the Dispersal of Power’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 1,
February–March 2024, pp. 125–38.
Adam Mount, ‘The US and South Korea: The Trouble with
Nuclear Assurance’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 2, April–May
2023, pp. 123–40.
Hanna Notte, ‘Russia, the Global South and the Mechanics of
the Nuclear Order’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024,
pp. 49–57.
Hilton L. Root, ‘Civilisational Conflict’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3,
June–July 2024, pp. 43–8.
Steve Tsang, ‘Getting China Right’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 4,
August–September 2023, pp. 43–54.
Robert Ward, ‘A Fragile Convergence: the US–Japan–South
Korea Camp David Summit’, Survival, vol. 65, no. 5,
October–November 2023, pp. 25–36.
The Military Balance is the Institute’s annual
assessment of military capabilities and defence
economics worldwide. Region-by-region analyses
cover the major military and economic trends and
developments affecting security policy and the
trade in weapons and other military equipment.
Comprehensive tables portray key data on weapons
and defence economics. Defence expenditure trends
over a ten-year period are also shown. It builds on
the Military Balance+ database that provides updates
on data and policy throughout the year.
IISS, The Military Balance 2024 (Abingdon: Routledge for the
IISS, 2024)
IISS, The Military Balance 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the
IISS, 2023)
Robert Ward, ‘Another Special Relationship? The United
States and Japan’, Survival, vol. 66, no. 3, June–July 2024,
pp. 201–12.
The Institute’s research team also publishes free
reports and assessments. These extended pieces of
analysis are an indispensable resource for those who
wish to understand key strategic questions in much
greater depth.
James J. Wirtz, ‘The US Navy and the Western Pacific’, Survival,
vol. 66, no. 1, February–March 2024, pp. 139–44.
Greg Austin, Quantum Sensing: Comparing the United States and
China (London: IISS, 2024).
Lanxin Xiang, ‘Biden’s Misguided China Policy’, Survival, vol.
66, no. 3, June–July 2024, pp. 91–104.
Veerle Nouwens, Timothy Wright, Euan Graham and Blake
Herzinger, Long-range Strike Capabilities in the Asia-Pacific:
Implications for Regional Stability (London: IISS, 2024).
The Adelphi series is the Institute’s principal
contribution to policy-relevant, original academic
research. Books published since 2023 include:
Jeffrey Lewis and Kolja Brockmann, Missile Proliferation and
Control in the Asia-Pacific Region (London: IISS, 2024).
Aaron Connelly and Shona Loong, New Answers to Old
Questions: Myanmar Before and After the 2021 Coup d’État,
Adelphi 505–507 (Abingdon: Routledge for the IISS, 2024).
Kai Lin Tay, ASEAN Cyber-security Cooperation: Towards a
Regional Emergency-response Framework (London: IISS, 2023).
Simona R. Soare, Pavneet Singh and Meia Nouwens, Softwaredefined Defence: Algorithms at War (London: IISS, 2023).
Selected IISS publications
91
Shiloh Fetzek, Carbon Emissions, Net Zero and Future Forces –
Comparative Analysis of Radical Emissions-reductions Plans and
Processes for Defence (London: IISS, 2023).
Greg Austin and Natallia Khaniejo, Impact of the Russia–Ukraine
War on National Cyber Planning: A Survey of Ten Countries
(London: IISS, 2023).
The Armed Conflict Survey is the Institute’s annual
review of political, military and humanitarian trends
in current conflicts.
‘Shifting threat perceptions on the Korean Peninsula’, Strategic
Comments, vol. 29, no. 40, December 2023.
‘India’s defence-industrial partnership with the UK’, Strategic
Comments, vol. 29, no. 36, November 2023.
‘The surge of activity in relations between North Korea and
Russia’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 30, October 2023.
‘The first China–Central Asia Summit’, Strategic Comments, vol.
29, no. 29, October 2023.
‘Qin Gang’s disappearance and shifts in party–state relations
IISS, Armed Conflict Survey 2023 (Abingdon: Routledge for the
IISS, 2023)
in China’s foreign policymaking’, Strategic Comments, vol.
IISS, Armed Conflict Survey 2024 (Abingdon: Routledge for the
IISS, 2024)
‘Emerging security challenges on the island of Borneo’, Strategic
29, no. 27, September 2023.
Comments, vol. 29, no. 25, September 2023.
‘Technology trade controls and US–China competition’,
Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 23, August 2023.
Strategic Comments is the Institute’s online source
of analysis of international security and politicomilitary issues. Articles on the Indo-Pacific region
published in 2023–24 include:
‘Cambodia’s political succession and the next govern-
‘US summitry with Japan and the Philippines’, Strategic
Comments, vol. 30, no. 13, May 2024.
‘A progressive victory in Thailand’s 2023 general election’,
‘Developments in South Korea’s defence industry’, Strategic
Comments, vol. 30, no. 9, April 2024.
‘Australia’s 2023 Defence Strategic Review’, Strategic Comments,
‘The tit-for-tat conflict between Iran and Pakistan’, Strategic
Comments, vol. 30, no. 4, March 2024.
‘Vietnam: leadership turnover and foreign-policy implica-
‘The launch of the first agreement under the US Indo-Pacific
Economic Framework’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 3,
February 2024.
‘The state of China–Russia cooperation over natural gas’,
‘The challenge to Islamabad from the Tehrik-e-Taliban
Pakistan’, Strategic Comments, vol. 30, no. 1, January 2024.
92
The IISS Shangri-La Dialogue
ment’s external policies’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no.
17, July 2023.
Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 12, June 2023.
vol. 29, no. 9, May 2023.
tions’, Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 5, March 2023.
Strategic Comments, vol. 29, no. 4, February 2023.
‘Japan’s new national-security and defence strategies’, Strategic
Comments, vol. 29, no. 1, January 2023.