The Duke MBA Consulting ClubCasebook 2022 – 2023 October 2022 Edition 1 DMCC 2022-2023 Sponsors The Duke MBA Consulting Club is grateful for the support of our sponsors: 2 Welcome Message Welcome students, The Duke MBA Consulting Club (DMCC) is proud to present the 2022-2023 DMCC Casebook. This year we have included 12 brand new cases. The objective of this book is to help you prepare for your upcoming consulting case interviews. Case interviews are an integral part of the hiring process for consulting firms. These interviews give you the opportunity to showcase your communication, client, creative, and analytical skills to your interviewer. This book was developed to complement the Duke MBA Consulting Roadmap curriculum. We hope that using both will help lead you to success during the upcoming recruiting season. This casebook could not have been completed without all of the wonderful cases submitted by your classmates. We would also like to thank our friends at other MBA programs for sharing with us their old casebooks to supplement the cases herein. Note that casing is a journey and a process. While many cases herein follow a prescriptive nature, actual interviews may vary with respect to time, organization, and detail. It’s important to be adaptable, stay creative, and respond to mistakes with a confident and professional demeanor. We wish you luck with your preparation and would like you to remember that your fellow DMCC members are here to help! Please reach out to anyone on the cabinet if you feel that you are not “cracking the case”. Lastly, to the students from other top MBA programs who are using this casebook during their preparation, we warmly welcome you to “Team Fuqua.” Good luck! Kastur Bhattacharjee The DMCC 2022 Casebook Chair Acknowledgements This casebook would not have been possible without the case contributions from the following second year students: Abidemi Owokoya, Alejandro Castro, Alfonso Barajas, Ali Lightbourne, Ali Stelletello, Chithraa Veldurairaj, Clay Brezinski, Cory Dowd, Courtney Kaplan, Devika Mathur, Ernesto Almonacin, Gitika Lakhotia, Huong Bui, Jin Zhang, Kevin Liscovitz, Maureen Ojukuwu, Nishanth Bharadwaj, Sherman Wilhelm, and Thiago Silva Please email fuquadmcc@duke.edu with any case-specific feedback, questions or improvements. Thank you! Overview, Changes, and Notes • Industry primers were added back to help candidates familiarize themselves with the fundamentals of a particular industry. However, given the ever-changing market landscape, candidates should always stay up-to-date with recent events and market trends • Quantitative and qualitative difficulty were combined into a single case difficulty metric. Experience showed that candidates would overemphasize particular rankings whereas real interviews coalesce both components. • Ask the behavioral questions EVERY TIME you give a case! Do not neglect this portion of the interview • All cases are adaptable. Sample frameworks and brainstorms should be used as baselines to guide thinking. Be creative and leverage personal experience in every case • For the 2022 academic year, send Kastur Bhattacharjee (kb487@duke.edu) any comments, corrections or errors found in this casebook • HAVE FUN! Casing is very representative of the day-to-day life as a consultant. Enjoy the casing process, and you’ll enjoy your future career! Industry Overviews Oil & Gas Products/ Services Products are categorized along the value chain as upstream, midstream, or downstream Upstream: Identify, extract, or produce raw materials. Also called exploration and production Midstream: Link upstream and downstream through storage and transportation services Downstream: Anything related to the post-production of crude oil and natural gas *The closer an oil and gas company is to supplying consumers, the further downstream it is Revenue Volume of goods sold; Price is generally determined by global indices; Products can include diesel, natural gas, gasoline, heating oil, propane, etc. Costs It is important to note that this is a high fixed cost industry, resulting in a significant barrier to entry. Other costs may include extraction costs, COGS (i.e., oil), labor, technology, transportation, and licensing Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Upstream: BP, Shell, Aramco, Exxon Mobil, and China National Offshore Oil Corporation Oilfield services: Schlumberger, Halliburton, Baker Hughes Downstream: MPC, PSX, COP, BASF, Dow, SABIC; Any oil refinery, natural gas distributor, or retail outlets Customers Governments, CPG producers, Utilities companies Distribution Channel(s) Wholesale to customers: in large quantities Traders: in smaller quantities Suppliers/ Supply Chain Products are mostly transported in large quantities by vessels and require long lead times. Recent Trends & Key Concepts Oil prices have been volatile over the past few years. The recent American shale oil boom, & slowdown have been the result of high oil variance. COVID-19: There was a surplus of oil causing many refineries to halt operations. The oil price went negative as a result of a lack of storage for oil. It is important to understand the current state of OPEC, and if there have been any recent agreements to cut production. Key trends 8 Consumer Packaged Goods (CPG) Products/ Services CPG companies provide consumers with items used daily by average consumers that require routine replacement or replenishment. These items include cleaning agents, beauty products, food, beverages, pet food, clothes, tobacco, makeup etc. Revenue Volume of goods sold; Price premium on branded goods Costs Sales and Marketing (branding, discounting, trade spend); COGS (raw materials, packaging, and processing), shipping/distribution, product development, product testing Costs can vary depending on how horizontally integrated the CPG company is within the supply chain Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Procter & Gamble (P&G), Unilever, Clorox, Mondelez, PepsiCo, Frito Lay, Chobani, Casper, Philip Morris USA, Coca-Cola, etc. Private label products, home remedies, small mission-driven niche brands Customers Walmart, Sam’s Club, Costco, Target, Grocery stores, Convenience stores, Consumers Distribution Channel(s) Wholesale to customers (Walmart, etc.) Direct-to-consumer (limited web distribution through Amazon and others) There has been a wave of CPG companies attempting to go D2C to avoid the middleman Suppliers/ Supply Chain Supply chain varies widely by product and region; plants are owned/operated or contract manufactured Recent Trends & Key Concepts Activist investors push cost cutting and selling non-core brands; emphasis on sustainability; direct-toconsumer movement; CPG subscription kits (i.e., Dollar Shave Club, Blue Apron); CPG product personalization; private label products and small niche brands stealing market share from the larger CPG companies COVID-19: Many CPG companies have benefitted from COVID-19 as consumers have stocked up on CPG products. This has especially benefitted traditional CPG companies as consumers have a greater ‘trust’ in their products. During COVID consumers have been less conscious of the environmental impacts of the products they buy, and more focused on the value the product delivers Key trends 9 Manufacturing Products/ Services Includes companies in the business of mechanical, physical, or chemical transformation of materials/substances/components into new products Revenue Volume of goods sold; Price premium on branded goods; Revenue is generated by selling the finished goods. These may be sold to other manufacturers to produce more complex products, or to wholesalers, who then sell them to retailers. Costs Process efficiency, supply chain management, labor, raw materials; commodities, channel management, marketing, capital investment Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) General Motors, Chrysler, Ford, Toyota, Honda, Boeing, Airbus, GE, Phillips, Siemens, Caterpillar, Honeywell, Dow, Corning, HP, Intel Customers Varies by industry and position in supply chain, can be consumers or raw goods to businesses Distribution Channel(s) Direct Distribution: The manufacturer sells straight to the customer and uses no intermediary (Manufacturers selling their products through their own retail chains) Indirect Distribution: Utilizing intermediaries to get the product to the end user (a product manufacturer utilizes Costco to reach and sell to their target market) Suppliers/ Supply Chain Supply chain varies widely by product and region; plants are owned/operated or contract manufactured; Supply chains are typically comprised of geographically dispersed facilities and capabilities, including sources of raw materials, product design and engineering organizations, manufacturing plants, distribution centers, retail outlets, and customers, as well as the transportation and communications links between them. Recent Trends & Key Concepts Increased automation; Trump has been pushing to re-shore manufacturing supply chains COVID-19: COVID has forced some companies to re-evaluate “just-in-time” manufacturing processes; some companies are looking to diversify the steps of their manufacturing processes, and build up ‘emergency’ inventory; Many manufacturing companies shifted production to support the shortage of masks Key trends 1 Financial Services Products/ Services Retail banking, commercial banking, investment banking, deposit-based services, credit cards, consumer loans (personal and commercial/business), payments, insurance, mortgages, securities, private wealth management, underwriting for IPOs, retirement accounts, real estate loans Revenue Net revenue is the spread between bank’s borrowing cost and the interest rates charged to borrowers; underwriting fees; commissions; insurance companies generate revenues from premiums received; Costs Overhead (branches, administration, compliance), salaries, bad debt expense, marketing Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Large national players (Wells Fargo, Bank of America, Citi) compete with regional banks. The largest players’ services extend well beyond commercial banking to investment banking, securitization, proprietary trading, etc. with services that are increasingly opaque Fintech is increasingly becoming a player within financial services Customers Individual consumers (with the emergence of FinTech these services are now more accessible to the underbanked community) High net worth consumers (priority segment as result in higher profits) Small/medium businesses without sufficient size for larger investment banking financing services; private companies going public looking for underwriting Distribution Channel(s) Face-to-face presence with bank branches, tellers, etc. ATM services, online, mobile, robo-advisors (COVID-19 is increasing the use of these services) Banks increasingly offer credit cards, home loans, etc. as means to increase asset base Suppliers/ Supply Chain Deposits from individuals and corporations Fees from services conducted Recent Trends & Key Concepts Consolidated, mature industry with primary growth through acquisitions Demographic shift (baby boomer aging) creating large market for retirement products Offshoring of various functions to reduce expenses (e.g. call centers, back office functions) Customer intelligence and the ability to act in real-time to customer needs Digitization of services (fewer customers visiting bank branches); zero-commission trading COVID-19: Since COVID many consumers have reduced visits to the bank and further relied on digital services; Many banks underwrote PPP loans to businesses seeking government support Key trends 11 Healthcare (Provider) Products/ Services Care provided to patients in doctor’s offices/clinics, urgent care facilities, emergency departments, acute care facilities, etc. Providers may be for-profit or non-profit. Patients typically are billed for the facility fees (ex. hospital beds, medication, etc.) as well as for physician services received Revenue Net Patient Service Revenue: revenue for care provided minus expenses for providing services Academic institutions and other health systems often receive philanthropy Most providers receive the actual money from insurance companies and tend to generate greater margins on elective surgeries Costs Corporate shared services (admin, IT, finance, legal, billing, etc.), salaries (physician groups often contracted), pharmaceuticals, research, capital expenditures for large facilities, equipment, etc. Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Consolidation among smaller regional health systems or by acquisition of larger health systems; Increased emergence of urgent care facilities (ex. CVS Minute Clinic) and Telemedicine service providers; Decreased power from smaller organizations to negotiate favorable rates with payers Customers Any one in need of health care services (growing as the US population continues to trend older) Inpatient (stay in hospital) vs. outpatient (DO NOT stay in hospital) Distribution Channel(s) Hospitals (acute care), clinics, doctor’s offices, emergency departments, urgent care, telemedicine providers, large health systems, IDNS (Investor-owned), regional health systems, academic institutions urgent care facilities, specialized pediatric facilities, rehabilitation facilities, hospice care, etc. Suppliers/ Supply Chain Suppliers to healthcare providers: pharmaceutical companies, technology providers (ex. radiology equipment, healthcare IT) Recent Trends & Key Concepts Pay for performance; expanding and aging populations; increasing numbers of people with chronic, longterm conditions; potential changes to healthcare coverage depending on the November election (i.e., healthcare for all); increase in technology (telemedicine, electronic medical records and protection of data, wearables, predictive technologies, etc.); focus on preventative care COVID-19: CARES Act; Since COVID more providers have relied on delivering their services virtually. Voluntary procedures have halted at hospitals (these tend to generate the highest margins for providers). Key trends 12 Private Equity Investments Products/ Services Equity that is not publicly traded Common forms include Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital (VC), Mezzanine Capital, Distressed Investments, and Growth Capital Revenue Return on investments (carried interest) and management fees Levers pulled to increase revenue (value-creation): timeframe, identifying efficiencies, new management, acquisitions Costs Investment expenses, legal, technical assistance to firms, administrative expenses, travel, labor is very costly (few and highly paid employees), taxes Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Supply of capital in the market is greater than demand. This has resulted in PE firms having a lot of ‘dry powder’ Large (e.g. KKR, Carlyle, Blackstone, TPG), Mid ($250M to $5B), and Small Market PE shops Customers New customers of PE deals may be corporations Institutional investors Customers can range from small family-owned companies to large corporations Distribution Channel(s) Leveraged Buyouts: controlling interest (of equity) is acquired through borrowing a lot of money Venture Capital: investors give cash in exchange for shares/control; typical with start-ups Mezzanine Capital: financing that contains equity-based options and subordinated debt Growth capital: financing to expand, restructure, or enter new markets with little change in management Distressed Investments: investing in financially stressed companies Suppliers/ Supply Chain Private investors, large corporations, foundations Recent Trends & Key Concepts Larger amounts of equity required for each deal; Startup financial performance not always meeting high valuations; Healthcare and tech are seeing most of the activity; Increased focus on value-creation rather than financial engineering to generate investment targets COVID-19: PE firm exits have halted and there has been a focus on supporting existing portfolio companies Key trends 13 Pharmaceuticals Products/ Services Brand name drug manufacturers produce original, patent-protected (for a certain period) drugs for human and animal diseases. Generic drug producers produce ‘copy-cat’ drugs (with the same medical result) at a lower development cost when the originator drug’s patent expires. Revenue Determined by: size of specific treatment area/level of competition; buy-in from doctors that will prescribe; speed to market (1st to market is important); dosage and frequency Revenue can come directly from patients, but most is received from third party insurers Costs VC: sales and marketing (doctor visits, sponsored studies) FC: R&D (drug discovery, formulation, clinical trials; a lot of this is now outsourced; generic companies only need to perform clinical trials and are therefore fast to come to market once a patent expires) Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Success is contingent on drug effectiveness, adoption/buy-in from doctors, coverage approval from private and public insurers, patient adherence and ease of use. US, Europe and Japan are the largest markets although emerging markets are growing (e.g., China, India, Brazil) In the US, the Food & Drug Authority (FDA) needs to approve all drugs before sale. Generic drugs are treated as substitutes and usually receive more favorable reimbursements and coverage by insurers. Customers Doctors who prescribe these medicines Insurance companies (i.e. private insurers, Medicare (over 65), Medicaid (low-income/disabled)) Patients/consumers who need these drugs/medicines In some emerging markets officials (provincial and central government) may control channel access Distribution Channel(s) Over the counter (“OTC”, can be sold without prescription); Retail outlets – CVS, Walgreens; Mail order/online; hospitals; pharmacies; doctor’s offices; Emergence of prescription delivery; B2B: Distributors/intermediaries Suppliers/ Supply Chain Drug manufacturer –> Drug wholesaler/distributor –> retailer/pharmacy/doctor’s office/hospital –> patient Recent Trends & Key Concepts Price competition from generic drug manufacturers. Increasing pressure from health insurance companies and hospitals to reduce prices. R&D challenge of finding high revenue drugs (‘Blockbusters’ have annual sales > $1B). Weaker investments in R&D in recent years. Loss of patent on key drugs for many large pharma companies, especially for specialty biologic drugs in the next 5 years; COVID-19: COVID has disrupted pharma supply chains (especially involving China) Key trends 14 Airlines Products/ Services Air transportation for passengers and cargo Revenue Ticket sales, baggage fees, food and beverage sales, freight fees, new classes (Economy Plus as well as Economy “Basic”), seat allocation, in-flight entertainment, in-flight WIFI, frequent flyer programs, consumer credit cards Costs Fuel, food and beverage, ground crew, air crew, aircraft lease/payments, airport fees, IT/admin fees, frequent flier program fees, marketing and sales, offices, hangars, insurance Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Legacy carriers (Delta, United, American, Lufthansa, Air India, British Airways) compete with each other and are also competing with low cost carriers (Southwest, Allegiant Air, Frontier Airlines, Eurowings, Gogo Air). New entrants are more common in the low-cost model. Barriers to entry include available gate space / airport leasing agreements and extremely high startup costs Customers Individual passengers, corporate travelers, travel agents/websites, freight/cargo shipping companies Distribution Channel(s) Direct from the airline (website, at the airport, over the phone), travel agents (website, in person, over the phone), through other providers as a bundle (cruise and flight bundle, hotel and flight bundle etc.), increasing number of tickets sold through trip aggregators (Kayak, Priceline, etc) Suppliers/ Supply Chain Aircraft manufacturers, avionics manufacturers, aircraft leasing companies, fuel providers, airport operators, flight training providers, catering providers, aircraft maintenance providers Recent Trends & Key Concepts Metrics: Available Seat Miles (Total # seats available for transporting) * (# miles flown in a period), Revenue Passenger Mile (RPM) = (#Revenue-paying passengers)*(#miles flown in a period), Revenue per Available Seat Mile = (Revenue) / (# seats available), Load Factor = % of available seating capacity which is actually filled with passengers 737 MAX: Due to multiple crashes from a malfunctioning flight control, this plane has been grounded since March 2019, and is still in the process of getting reapproval for passenger flights (negatively affected Boeing) COVID-19: Significant reduction in passengers resulting in fewer flights; many airlines have laid off employees and/or declared bankruptcy; airlines have offered vouchers for cancelled flights; as passenger flights were cancelled, the cost of sending cargo by air increased; industry experts anticipate it will take many years for demand to reach pre-COVID levels. Key trends 15 Media Products/ Services Media sector includes print, audio, and video content generation & distribution Revenue Advertising is a key revenue driver. Additional revenue sources are subscriptions, one-time purchases (video on demand, DVD purchase), and licensing fees. For online portals (Netflix, Hulu, etc.) the key value driver is content. Costs Production costs (salary, technology, location fees etc.), distribution costs, marketing and advertising, promotions, capital costs (studios, equipment etc.) Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) Highly competitive with a few major players owning most of the market. The fight over content exclusivity is a big issue among legacy players (Netflix, Hulu) and content providers (Disney, etc.). Content providers have begun to launch their own media platforms. Traditional cable companies are facing issues resulting from web-based solutions providers and cord cutting. Customers Two main customers: End customer (i.e., the viewer) and advertising companies (i.e., to whom the media provider sells ad space). The more end customers the platform has, the more they can charge advertising companies. Distribution Channel(s) Online streaming is the fastest growing channel, but traditional distribution still exists. Additional distribution channels include theaters and ‘live’ events. Suppliers/ Supply Chain Technology providers (internet service providers are becoming particularly important in allowing high-speed streaming), actors, artists, and musicians Recent Trends & Key Concepts Online streaming and cord cutting is changing the industry. There is a large focus on creating and controlling content. Companies such as Netflix and Yahoo are creating original content to remain competitive. Ad-supported video is increasingly becoming the dominant model of delivering streaming video to consumers. COVID-19: Since COVID many companies have suspended movie and television production, causing delays in release dates. Social distancing has generated a boost in digital media including video and music streaming and downloads, as well as online publications. Key trends 16 Technology Products/ Services Broad industry consists of PCs, servers, semiconductors, internet service providers, communications providers, IT services, software and application development, and internet companies. Technology plays a role in every other industry, and there has been a push for companies to become more ‘digitized’. Revenue Revenues vary by type of product. PC revenue: primarily from sales of PCs and subsequent support; internet mobile applications revenue: driven by ad clicks; IT services revenue: tied to staff utilization per employee Costs Costs vary by type of product. For software, the initial R&D costs are high but the marginal cost for production is negligible. For PCs and servers input costs include component costs, labor costs, distribution and support For semiconductors it is important to note these companies have high fixed costs, but are constantly improving their products (i.e., Moore’s Law). Competitive Landscape (Competitors, Substitutes, New Entrants) There are a few large competitors in the PC and server space, but many competitors in the software and application development space. Internet companies have low barriers to entry, resulting in a highly competitive industry. It is common for smaller players to be acquired by the internet giants. Customers Varies by type of product: ranges from individual customers and corporations for things like PCs or software; Also could be companies looking for advertising channels. Internet companies tend to be B2C, while companies such as IBM, Oracle, Cisco focus on B2B. Distribution Channel(s) Distribution through retail outlets and B2B channels for hardware, online distribution through app stores/ websites for software. Limited distribution of software through physical media. Suppliers/ Supply Chain Hardware: various suppliers include raw material providers, semiconductor manufacturers, machine and technology providers Software: supply chain includes software testing houses, and distribution channels such as App Stores Recent Trends & Key Concepts Acquisition of talent and technology by established industry players. ”Freemium” and ad-driven revenue models for software. New technologies entering the business segment: Internet of Things, cloud computing, big data (predictive) analytics, mobile (computing everywhere), 3D printing, machine learning. COVID-19: Remote work, online education, and social distancing has generated demand for products and services delivered by the tech industry. Tech companies have achieved historic valuations and are driving historic stock market prices; Tech continues to get scrutinized regarding their data security processes (especially with upcoming election) Key trends 17 2022 New Case List Case Name Industry Type Difficulty 1 Ikoyi Co in America CPG Market Entry Easy 2 Home Improvement Co Retail Profitability Easy 3 Bring the Angels back Healthcare Human Capital Easy 4 Skooters Hospitality Profitability/Growth Medium 5 Erween Mills Manufacturing Profitability Medium 6 Orange Music Growth Medium 7 Athletic Athleisure Growth/M&A Medium 8 I want my Em-TV Telecom Pricing Hard 9 Audio Inc Consumer/ Health Tech Market Entry Hard McKinsey Style 10 State of Blue Devils Public Sector Strategy Hard McKinsey Style 11 Muni Golf Opportunity Real Estate/ Private Equity Growth/M&A Hard 12 Rush Hour Transportation Market Entry Hard Media & Entertainment Consumer & Retail Notes McKinsey Style Note: Cases are ordered in relative difficulty. Comfort with medium and hard cases are representative of interview proficienc y 6 Other Classic Cases Case Name Learning Goal Difficulty Casebook Sardine Airlines Good starter case for starting casing Entry Fuqua 18-19 Lactose King Starter/refresher case with profitability twist Entry Fuqua 17-18 Winter Olympics Entry Kellogg 18-19 Duck Island Organizing math structure Clearing exhibits and international market entry Medium Fuqua 18-19 Fireproof Out-of-box thinking for growth strategy Medium Darden 18-19 Rubber Bumper Non-traditional topic with good math Medium Darden 18-19 Mapflix Market sizing & NPV Medium Fuqua 18-19 Met with Problems Human organization case Medium Darden 20-21 Leo vs Space Inv. Media and Entertainment Medium Fuqua 21-22 Fuquan Land Agro Strategy Medium Fuqua 21-22 Stale Chips Medium Fuqua 21-22 Health Coaches Market Entry for CPG Difficult topic requiring math structuring and difficult exhibits Hard Kellogg 18-19 Zoo Co Non-traditional case with emphasis on quant Hard Kellogg 18-19 Great Burger McKinsey style case with difficult quant Hard Stern 16-17 7 Case Logs We recommend keeping a case log to track progress, notes and takeaways to refer back to. It is recommended to use an Excel or Google Sheet that can be easily shared with others. Here’s a breakdown of the basic sections of a case log: • Name: Name of the case (ex: Queen Bae) • Location: Casebook or firm that gave the case (ex: Fuqua 20-21) • Interviewer: Name of the person interviewing (ex: Soham Bose) • Case Date: Date case was done (ex: 11/1/2021) • Industry: Market the case focused on (ex: CPG) • Type: The type of case or problem solved (ex: Growth) • Notes: Major feedback from the case • Takeaways (optional): Major learnings or hints from the case to be able to refer back to 8 Case Dynamics The makings of a good caser can be summarized in two buckets Quantitative Capability Qualitative Capability Quantitative achievement comes from mastering mental math quickly and accurately. Mistakes will happen, remain calm and talk through your approach. Find a methodology to quickly structure and document numbers. At a minimum, candidates must learn: Qualitative means creativity. Cases have been repeated tens to hundreds of times. Stay up-to-date on news, markets and trends. Draw on personal experiences as a consumer. Create a persona within the case and imagine how to react. Read the news, listen to podcasts and talk with others. Resources include: • Big number multiplication • Big number division • Fractions 1/n until n=15 • Quickly calculate and manipulate 1%, 5%, 10%, 20%, and 50% • Wall Street Journal • New York Times (and newsletters) • Morning Brew • Robinhood Snacks 9 Case Checklist Case Type ❑ Profitability Case Industries ❑ Retail ❑ Growth Strategy ❑ Consumer ❑ Market Entry ❑ Financial Services ❑ Human Capital ❑ Healthcare ❑ General Strategy ❑ Manufacturing ❑ Mergers & Acquisition ❑ Airlines ❑ Oil & Gas ❑ Non-Profit ❑ Education ❑ Public Sector/Government 10 Ikoyi Co in America Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: CPG Market entry Interviewee Easy 11 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Tell me about a time you worked with someone with a different perspective/point of view Question 2: • Tell me about a time you had to convince someone to change their mind 12 Ikoyi Co in America Prompt #1: • Your client, Ikoyi Co is a UK-based company selling skincare products. They have been successful in the UK and are considering entry into the US. They have asked us to help identify if this is a viable strategy and which key US markets to enter. Case Background: • Background information to be divided into these categories – Client/Company information: client is looking for $500M Net Sales Value in 3 years, after retailers take their cut (40%). The imagined split is 50% DTC (no margin cut, 100%) and 50% retail – Industry/Competition information: currently one of the biggest players in the UK market. Industry is very fragmented – Product information: general skincare products (e.g. moisturizers, vitamin C serum, exfoliators) – Value Chain/Revenue information: earns revenue from selling directly to final consumer on their website and through retail – Any constraints on the case: the company is considering US only 13 Ikoyi Co in America Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Economics • • • Profit ✓ Potential rev in US • ✓ Cost of operating in • US Market ✓ Competitive • environment ✓ Consumer preferences ✓ Industry trends ✓ Market growth Investment ✓ Upfront cost required ✓ Payback period Other considerations Company Competencies Power of brand to attract customers Expertise to succeed ✓ Staff skill ✓ Supply chain Channel access ✓ Access to retail shelves ✓ Digital marketing capabilities for DTC • • • • • Regulations Macro-economic risks Taxation Political risk Currency risk 14 Exhibit #1 US Skincare market by region ($M) 500 100% 750 300 250 Others 90% 21% Skin Pro Never Age Inc. 80% 53% 70% Glow Inc. 13% 60% 68% 60% 16% 50% 2% 40% 30% 6% 27% 14% 0% 8% 20% 10% 25% 10% 4% 10% 12% 13% 14% Midwest South 24% 0% East West Yo Yo Skin Interviewer guidance on Exhibit 1 Exhibit #1 Guidance: Analysis: • Market size is given by the total at the top, with competitor share in each region\ • Candidate should deduce that the West is heavily consolidated and will be difficult to enter • Assume Other accounts for sum of all other competitors with negligible share • The other three regions are smaller but less consolidated and should be explored • Push candidate to eliminate West as it is highly concentrated • Drive towards calculating revenues for other regions 16 Exhibit #2 Total market size (Year 1) Potential market share Year 1 Potential market share Year 2 Potential market share Year 3 East 500 10% 12% 20% West 750 1.33% 5% 7% Midwest 300 16% 20% 33% South 250 12% 18% 20% Region All numbers given in Millions USD 17 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit 2 Exhibit #2 Guidance: • Assume market size will grow at 10% annually for each region • Candidate should recognize that even though the West is the largest region it will produce the least revenue and has the most consolidated competitive landscape, making it the least attractive • Candidate should conclude that the revenue target is unattainable after entering the 3 most promising markets; LEAD INTO BRAINSTORM Analysis: • Need to work backwards to get gross revenue goal • (.5)(.6)X+ (.5)X= 500M • .8X=500M • X= Gross revenue= 625M 18 Brainstorming Prompt: Analysis: • What are other ways client could reach their revenue target? • Price: – Increase price of skincare products sold – Have tiered pricing for skincare products based on customer loyalty Renegotiate percentage/price with retailers – • Quantity: – – – Increase quantity of products sold by gaining more final consumers/retailers Increase quantity sold by exploring B2B business model; e.g. partnering with hospitals/dermatologists Explore other channels of servicing customer; e.g. company owned physical stores • Create new product/service offering • Increase marketing efforts; e.g. social media, educational outreaches 19 Ikoyi Co in America Recommendation • Yes, the US market should be entered (3 regions or 4). Ikoyi is a powerful brand abroad which may translate well to an American audience. They can leverage existing capabilities • No, the US market should not be entered. You would need to enter all 4 regions to reach your revenue goal and there are challenges to a nationwide launch (logistics, supply chain, upfront marketing costs). However, there are benefits to getting your brand in a new geography and access to new customers • Candidate should choose one choice of action or the other Risks and Next Steps: • Yes: Risks include establishing new international supply chains, FDA regulation compliance, competitor response • No: Loosing potential revenue streams and access to new customers, diminishing brand presence should a US competitor enters the US market • Next steps are to perform feasibility studies, stress test assumptions, perform due diligence on new suppliers, establish shipping contracts, and expand production capacity to the extent necessary. 20 Home Improvement Co. Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Retail Profitability Interviewee Easy 21 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Describe a time you had to deliver bad news to a client, manager, or superior. How did you approach it? Question 2: • Tell me about a time where you had to work in an ambiguous environment? How did you approach it? 22 Home Improvement Co. Prompt #1: • Home Improvement Co. is a major home improvement retailer in the U.S. that sells tools, construction products, appliances, and services. Since 2020, the company has struggled to hit their profitability targets and are looking for possible solutions. • Our client, the CFO of the company, has hired us to come up with a plan reverse this trajectory and return the company to its profitability level from 3 years ago. Case Background: • Background information to be divided into these categories– – Client/Company: $50B in Revenue in 2021. 3 distribution channels: In-store, buy online pickup in-store, deliver to home. – Industry/Competition: The improvement retail industry has been experiencing growth the last few years as consumers are spending more time at home with the pandemic and focusing a bigger share of their budget on home projects. – Value Chain: Home Improvement Co. has dozens of suppliers for each category they sell in. Due to world supply chain constraints and increased demand, the lead time for lower turnover products has increased dramatically. – Goal: Reach the same level of profitability of 3 years ago (2019) – Market: Only the U.S. 23 Home Improvement Co. Framework Buckets: • See below for an example of MECE buckets, interviewee may have different buckets. Financial Considerations Revenue • Δ # of units sold • Δ Average price of units sold Costs • Fixed costs: Rent, Overhead, Insurance, Vehicle Leases, SG&A • Variable costs: Materials, Labor, other COGS Market and Global Trends Customer Needs • Number of major competitors and their recent performance • Changes in customer preferences during the pandemic • New technology in the market and its impact on overall market trends • Changes in overall number of customers • Customer share-ofwallet over the last 3 years • Global supply chain considerations • Look at how general inflation is playing a part 24 Brainstorm #1 Prompt: • Before we deep dive into our analysis, what could be drivers for decreasing profitability? Analysis: • Brainstorming should be structured and contain some of the following: – Decreasing Revenue • Decreasing quantity of units sold – Due to decreasing purchase power of customers or customers being more cautious about expenditures • Decreasing average price of units sold – To stay competitive, Home Improvement Co. decreased prices (price war against competitors) • Decreasing number of customers – Due to sell-outs, long wait times for orders, etc. – Increasing Costs • Variable costs – – Increase in materials supply costs due to worldwide supply shortage Increase in wages due to worker shorter and decreased worker safety during the pandemic • Fixed costs – Increase in overhead costs to stay competitive against competitors 25 Exhibit #1 Revenue and Costs (2019-21) 50 45 Costs Revenue 42 35 36 28 2019 2020 2021 *in billions of US dollars 26 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #1 Exhibit #1 Guidance: • If candidates do not explore revenue and costs on Brainstorming, push them to do so. • After that, hand them exhibit #1 and ask them which conclusions can be drawn. • If candidates, after calculating year profits, do not mention shrinking profit margins, push them to analyze it. They should calculate profit margins for 2021 and 2019 (since this is our benchmarking year). Analysis: • Analysis for the exhibit to have 2 parts – – Basic • • Candidate should immediately notice that both revenue and costs went up in the last two years. Despite that, costs increased more than revenue, reducing profits from $7B in 2019 to $5B in 2021. – Second order insights • A strong candidate will notice that besides decreasing profits ($2B decline in 2 years), profit margins shrunk aggressively: 2019 profit margin: 20.0% 2020 profit margin: 14.28% (as 6/42 is 1/7) 2021 profit margin: 10.0% Candidates can estimate 2020 profit margin as needed Profit Margin: (Revenue-costs)/Revenue 27 Exhibit #2 Cost Breakdown (2019-21) 45 36 21 28 16 12 COGS Rent Marketing Salaries 8 6 5 6 8 6 8 8 2019 2020 2021 5 *in billions of US dollars 28 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #2 Exhibit #1 Guidance: • After understanding that increasing costs is the driver of decreasing profitability, candidates should ask for more information on costs. • Show them this exhibit only when prompted. Analysis: • Analysis for the exhibit to have 2 parts – – Basic • • Candidate should notice that exhibit #2 is a breakdown of costs. Even though costs increased across the board, the main driver of cost increase is COGS. – Second order insights • • Candidates should calculate absolute and percentual change of costs in 2021 vs 2019. COGS Rent Ma rketing Sa l aries Total COGS is the cost that increased the most ($9B, or 75%). Besides that, COGS alone represent an increment of 53% of costs in the past two years (=9/17) 2019 12 5 5 6 28 2021 21 8 8 8 45 Abs olute change Percentual change 9 75% 3 60% 3 60% 2 33% 17 61% 29 Brainstorm #2 Prompt: • What are the reasons for increased COGS in the last few years and how can Home Improvement Co. work to decrease them? Analysis: • Reason for increased COGS – External Factors • • – Internal Factors • • • Some things the interviewee should mention: – As supply is running short and demand is increasing with the recent growth of home improvement retailers, raw material may be overvalued – If Home Improvement Co. is losing market share to its competitors or its competitors are outpacing its’ growth, suppliers may be raising prices Global Supply Chain shortage Loss of bargaining power As Home Improvement Co. quickly grows, it may be facing difficulties to find qualified labor To suppress this need, Home Improvement Co. might have invested in more expensive production methods • How to Decrease COGS – Dealing with External factors: • • Renegotiate agreements with suppliers with minimum SLA and long-term fixed price adjustments Invest on verticalization and produce own raw materials – Dealing with Internal factors: • • Invest on a Training and retaining talent program Negotiate new technologies to decrease production costs 30 Exhibit #3 2019 2020 2021 2022 Revenue 35 42 50 (+20%) COGS 12 16 21 ? Rent 5 6 8 (+25%) Marketing 5 6 8 (+25%) Salaries 6 8 8 (+25%) *in billions of US dollars 31 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #3 Prompt/Guidance: • The CFO agrees that increased COGS are driving profit margins down. After the second quarter business plan review, the board of Home Improvement Co. can say with confidence that revenue will keep growing strongly, as will fixed costs. • Considering that Revenue will increase 20% vs 2021 and Rent, Marketing and Salaries will increase 25% vs 2021, what is the maximum value that the company can spend on COGS? • Note: The solution will be to dramatically change the relationship with suppliers if Home Improvement Co. wants to reach 20% of profit margin. Analysis: • The maximum value that Home Improvement Co. can spend on COGS in the year of 2022 to reach profit margin of 20% is $18B. • Profit Margin: (Revenue-costs)/Revenue Revenue COGS Rent Marketing Salaries Profit margin 2019 35 12 5 5 6 20% 2020 42 16 6 6 8 14.3% 2021 50 21 8 8 8 10.0% 2022 60 18 10 10 10 20.0% 32 Home Improvement Co. Prompt: • The CFO met you in the Hall of Flags chatting with your fellow associate consultants and told you she is more excited than ever to hear your recommendations. Analysis: • In order to bring back profit margin to 2019 levels, Home Improvement Co. has to decrease COGS to $18B. • To do so, we recommend that the company renegotiate agreements with defined SLAs and price adjustments and invest in new technology to reduce production costs. • Some risks associated with this strategy is suppliers not being able to change SLAs due to an aggravation of the world supply chain crisis and that our fixed cost investment in new technology is ineffective. • To mitigate this risk, it is important that we map potential suppliers to meet our needs and that we draw a verticalization plan in case we need to integrate part of the production process into our supply chain. 33 Bring the Angels back Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Healthcare Human Capital Interviewee Easy 34 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Most significant achievement in life Question 2: • Why consulting? 35 Bring the Angels back Prompt #1: Your client is a multi - specialty hospital in the United States offering emergency care, scheduled surgeries, labor and delivery services, diagnostic testing, lab work, and patient education. The hospital is experiencing a high turnover of nurses in the past 12 months. The client needs your advice on how to better retain nurses and reduce turnover. Case Background: • Background information – – Client’s main goal is to bring back retention numbers to pre-12 months level of 85% with a strategic initiative(s) budget of $1M – The competition is facing high turnover as well. However, the turnover rate for our client is higher than the industry average – The hospital has a revenue of ~$10M with 2% YoY growth for the last 5 years – Turnover rate for doctors, technicians, and other administrative staff is lower than industry average and is not concerning 36 Bring the Angels back Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Company • • • • • • Current Pay and Benefits structure Schedule flexibility for nurses and other staff Patient volume MoM Patient mix – dictating involvement of nurses Financial health – dictating bonuses, rewards Relationship with insurance firms, partners Employees • • • • • • Work-Life balance and sustainability Growth and learning opportunities Career path, promotion cycles Intrinsic motivation Feedback on management and leadership Turnover numbers MoM External Factors • • Competitive landscape – better pay and benefits Other lucrative professions – reducing nursing aspirants 37 Exhibit #1 - Wage Chart 40 35 40 40 4,050 3,520 4,500 4,000 4,160 30 30 30 3,360 3,000 25 20 15 3,500 20 2,500 2,400 2,000 1,500 10 1,000 5 500 0 0 Client Hos A Monthly Pay ($) Hos B Hos C Hos D Hrs / Week * 4 weeks in a month 38 Guidance on Exhibit #1 Exhibit #1 Guidance: • Ask candidate about what they think the reason(s) might be for ahigh turnover and push them towards Exhibit #1 • Once the candidate identifies that the wages / hr for client is the lowest and suggests increasing wages, tell them that increasing wages is not an option • Push candidate to think about what other information can be helpful to solutionize Analysis: • Analysis for the exhibit – Basic • • • Hours / week is highest for client (40 hrs) $ / hour is lowest for client Focus on increasing wages and reducing working hours Client Hos A Hos B Hos C Hos D Monthly Pay ($) 3,520 4,160 3,360 2,400 4,050 Hrs / Week 40 40 30 20 30 $ / hr 22 26 28 30 33.75 • If candidate asks for nurses’ preferences (very similar to customer preferences), show them Exhibit #2 39 Exhibit #2 - Nurse Pulse Survey Nurses’ Preference Client Hos A Hos B Hos C Hos D Pay Benefits Career Advancement Good Management Schedule Flexibility Continuing Education 40 Guidance on Exhibit #2 Exhibit #2 Guidance: • In Exhibit #2, ask candidate to choose top 2 nurse preferences which, if addressed, can have maximum impact • If candidate talks about wages, tell them that wage increase is not a possibility, as mentioned earlier Analysis: • Analysis for the exhibit to have 2 parts – – Basic • – Second order insights • • Push candidate towards Career Advancement and Schedule Flexibility Career advancement and Schedule flexibility are very important to nurses and our client lags behind by 75% is each. Hence, these are the two most critical areas to deep dive • Continued education is also a factor where our client lags, but its an industry wide issue that can be addressed in the long term All other hospitals are doing really well on schedule flexibility and are lagging by just 25% • Push candidate towards a brainstorm on ideas to improve these two preferences for our client 41 Brainstorming Prompt: • Please provide the client with some ideas on how to improve career advancement and create schedules with better flexibility Analysis: • Career advancement – – A standard promotion schedule, with raises and bonuses for good performance – Path to management of other nurses or administrative/leadership roles – Mentorship program – Sponsorship for higher education – Cross department rotation program • Flexibility – – – – – Control over # of hours worked Allow more agency for nurses to pick hours Online scheduling tool Better structure/lead time for management to communicate shift assignments – Make it easier to change/drop shifts 42 Exhibit #3 - Strategic Initiatives Initiative TTM Attrition Drop TTM Attrition Drop (>=80% adoption) (<80% adoption) Implementation Cost Cross Department rotation program 10% 5% 350K Eliminating mandatory overtime 6% 2% 250K Digital tool for dynamic scheduling 16% 8% 700K Mentorship Program 12% 4% 800K - TTM – Trailing Twelve Months - Example of 80% adoption – For Mentorship Program, if the program is adopted by 80% or more nurses, the retention increase will be 12%, else its 4% - There is a certain probability of >80% adoption for each initiative 43 Guidance on Exhibit #3 Analysis: Exhibit #3 Guidance: • Post brainstorming, provide the candidate with Exhibit #3 and ask them to choose the most impactful and feasible initiative(s) • If candidate asks about current TTM retention - 70%; the delta to reach the 85% target is 15% • To calculate weighted avg. adoption rates, provide the candidate with the probabilities only when asked (table below) • Nudge candidate to consider the $1M budget constraint • Analysis for the exhibit to have 2 parts – – Basic • Calculate weighted avg. attrition drop by multiplying the TTM attrition drops with the probabilities of adoption • Avg. = P*(Drop >=80%) + (1-P)*(Drop <80%) • Check which set of initiatives are crossing the 15% retention inc. target and are within the $1M budget – Second order insights • We can increase retention further with additional $100k - $200k capital infusion Initiative Probability of >=80% adoption TTM Attrition Drop (>=80% adoption) TTM Attrition Drop (<80% adoption) Weighted Avg Implementation Cost Cross Department rotation program 50% 10% 5% 7.5% 350K Eliminating mandatory overtime 75% 6% 2% 5.0% 250K Digital tool for dynamic scheduling 37.5% 16% 8% 11.0% 700K Mentorship Program for career growth 75% 12% 4% 10.0% 800K 44 Brind the Angels back Recommendation • We recommend that you invest in eliminating mandatory overtime and launching a digital scheduling tool – Retention target of 85% achieved with $50K less budget Risks and Next Steps: • Risks – – Nurses’ preference is dynamic and might change in the near future – Adoption probabilities are not concrete • Next Steps – – Launch pulse check survey on the suggested initiatives – Allocate additional capital for the other 2 initiatives – Explore changing pay structure to match competitors’ hourly pay average – Pilot the digital tool 45 Skooters Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Hospitality Profitability/Growth Interviewee Medium 46 Skooters Prompt #1: • Skooters is a popular nightclub in Durham, NC. The establishment attracts students and young professionals year-round and is especially favored by Duke students. It boasts a well-established in-house DJ and a wide variety of snacks and beverages. However, since 2020, Skooters has been facing declining profits. Their management has approached you to analyze the reasons for Skooters declining profits and develop suggestions to reverse this trend. Case Background: – Skooters has two primary sources of revenue: 1. Entry fees of $10 per person 2. Beverages and Food – Their goal is to reverse the trend of declining profitability and restore profit levels to those of 2019 – There is one other large competitor in Durham as of now: Froot. We have limited information on their profitability as of now. – Skooters is open all days of the week from 7pm to 2am. However, it is busiest on Fridays and Saturdays. – The menu consists of popular bar foods such as fries and nachos. Other popular attractions include upstairs seating and pool tables. 47 Interviewer Notes for framework Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Revenue Number of visitors • • • Peak vs. Non-peak times Weekday vs weekend Age-groups and professions Number of visits / year • Repeat customers, frequency Average spend / visit • • • • • Share of revenue Entry fee Food Beverages Other activities (gaming, photographs etc.) Market Cost Fixed costs: • • • • • • • Rent Marketing Staff salaries maintenance Equipment (sound systems, etc.) Liquor license Utilities Variable costs: • Food and beverages Industry trends • nightlife market in Durham • Competitors (strategies, are they experiencing similar decline?) • Substitutes (karaoke, house parties etc.) • Legal restrictions Consumer • • changing preferences (of music, nightlife etc.) price sensitivity *bonus marks for bringing in nuances like group discounts, special events etc. Interviewee should lead discussion towards revenue and cost analysis 48 Exhibit #1 Skooters operating revenue and costs unaudited (in millions) 2021 2020 2019 2018 Ticket revenue 1.5 2 2.5 2.4 Non-ticket revenue 2.3 2.9 3.8 3.5 SG&A 1.8 1.7 1.8 1.6 COGs (food & beverages) 1.6 2 2.7 2.5 Operating Revenue Operating Costs 49 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #1 Analysis: Exhibit #1 Guidance: First-order insights: 2021 2020 2019 Operating Revenue Ticket revenue 1.5 2 2.5 Non-ticket revenue 2.3 2.9 3.8 Total Revenue 3.8 4.9 6.3 Operating Costs SG&A 1.8 1.7 1.8 COGs (food & 1.6 2 2.7 beverages) Total costs 3.4 3.7 4.5 Net income 0.4 1.2 1.8 Profitability 11% 24% 29% Candidate should use available information to calculate net income and profitability. They should identify from the prompt that the goal is to return to 2019 profitability of 29% from current 11%. There is no need to calculate 2018 given that the goal is 2019, and the prompt specifies that profitability has been dropping since 2020. Candidates should identify this and can clarify with the interviewer. 2018 2.4 3.5 5.9 1.6 2.5 4.1 1.8 31% • Declining profitability is a revenue issue and not a cost issue • Both ticket and non-ticket revenues are declining (at similar rates) • Profitability needs to improve from 11% currently to 29% (same level as that of 2019) • SGA remains relatively constant while cost is declining due to COGs Second order insights • Non-ticket revenue is roughly 1.5x that of ticket revenue indicating that 60% of Skooters'revenues come from food, beverages and/or other activities • COGS for food and beverages remain proportionate to nonticket revenue over the years. • Given that revenue has been decreasing at a similar rate across ticketed and non-ticketed revenue, it may be that number of visits are declining Non ticket revenue = revenue from food and beverages 50 Exhibit #2 Revenue Breakdown per customer (2021) 10% 50% 40% Skooters 10% Food Beverages Entry Fee 61% 29% Fruit Froot is Skooter’s primary competitor in Durham and opened in early 2020. It has a similar business model with primary revenue streams coming from entry fees, alcohol and food. Fruit had a total revenue of $4.9Mn in 2021. 51 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #2 Exhibit #2 Guidance: • Interviewee should quickly identify missing information required to calculate where the fall in revenue is coming from, as compared to the Froot • When they request the interviewer for this information, let them know that the information at hand is only that there were 126k total visitors at Skooters in 2021, and 196k at the Froot (these are total visitors and not unique visitors; if one person visits twice, the visitors count is 2) Analysis: Based on the per person revenue, candidates can calculate that beverage and food expenditure per person remain similar across both establishments, but total number of visitors are falling (as they are going to the Froot where tickets are cheaper) • With this information and total revenue from exhibit 1 (for Skooters) and the footnote in exhibit 2 (for Froot), they should be able to calculate: – Skooters revenue per person: $30 – Froot’s revenue per person: $25 • encourage candidates to round to $30 and $25 52 Exhibit #3 Having identified that a higher entry fee is reducing number of visits (and consequently revenue), Skooters has decided to reduce its entry fee for one of its target segments. The reduction will be such that the entry fee for that segment will be equivalent to that of the Froot. Which segment would you recommend it gives this discount to? Segment Size of segment Visits per person Current Market share Post-discount market share Duke 14,000 9 50% 60% UNC 30,240 5 25% 50% Young Professionals 63,000 12 2% 11% We can assume operating costs will be $3.8 million for the year, irrespective of which segment the discount is given to 53 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #3 Exhibit #3 Guidance: Analysis: • When interviewee asks, clarify that the discount to entry fees (new entry fee = $7 per person from exhibit 2) will only impact the market share. It will not increase number of visits per person or expenditure on beverages and food Revenue lost is calculated by multiplying the reduction in ticket prices ($5) by number of current visits (Total size of segment *current market share* number of visits per person) • Push the interviewee to calculate revenue lost and then revenue gained for each segment • Interviewee should remember to take ticket prices from previous exhibit • A common mistake while calculating is to disregard food and beverage expenditure when calculating incremental revenue gains Revenue earned is calculated by multiplying incremental market share* Total size of segment *number of visits per person * $25 revenue per person (new ticket prices of $7 + original beverage and food prices from exhibit 2 of $18) Then, subtract revenue lost from revenue gained to identify which incremental revenue from each segment Young professionals should be given discount With this in mind, we can add the incremental revenue to the revenue from exhibit 1 ($3.8Mn) such that we have a total revenue of $5.4Mn and operating costs (from footnote) of $3.8mn such that new profitability is 29% (which is the 2019 level) Segment Duke UNC Young Professionals 14,000 30,240 9 5 PostIncremental discount visits market share 50% 60% 12,600 25% 50% 37,800 63,000 12 2% Total size of segment Visits per person Current Market share 11% 68,040 Revenue earned Revenue lost Incremental revenue 315,000 945,000 315,000 189,000 0 756,000 1,70,1000 126,000 1,57,5000 54 Brainstorming Prompt: • In addition to offering a 50% discount to working professionals, what are some potential ideas to increase revenues from this establishment Analysis: Spend per visitor: • Offers on 2+ beverages • Wider menu • Parking fees • Discounted weeknight entry • Loyalty programs for frequent visitors • Arcade games / photo booths Number of visitors: • Marketing • Tie-ups for school events • Wider variety of music / activities (eg: potentially hosting concerts etc.) • Open during afternoons 55 Skooters Recommendation • Recommend reducing ticket price to $7 for young professionals – helping us achieve profitability target of 29% Risks and Next Steps: • Risks – – Fruit lowering prices further – Additional establishments opening in nearby areas – Reduction in young professional population in nearby areas due to remote working flexibility • Next Steps – – Check effectiveness of discount by piloting the discount once every two weeks – Chalk out execution plan for other avenues (as in brainstorm) to increase traffic 56 Erween Mills Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Manufacturing Operations / Profitability Interviewee Medium 57 Behavioral Questions Question 1: What drives you? Question 2: What are your core values and why? 58 Erween Mills Prompt #1: • Your client, Erween Mills, is a palm oil mill based out of Guatemala. The mill is facing profitability problems for the past couple of years. Erween Mills needs your help in identifying the root cause(s) and improving the mill’s profitability. Case Background: • Background information to be divided into these categories (Please mark N/A if information is not provided)– – What is a palm oil mill? A palm oil mill extracts crude oil from fresh palm fruit and then sells it in the commodity market. – Industry/Competition information: the client competes with a nearby mill for palm fruit. The producer sells the fruit to the highest bidder. – The mill has steady revenue, but capacity utilization has been decreasing YoY – Product information: Palm Oil is edible vegetable oil. It trades as a commodity. Palm oil is the only product currently sold by the mill – Value Chain/Revenue information: The mill buys fresh palm fruit from producers around the area, extracts the oil, and sells it in the commodity market. – The mill is struggling financially and needs a solution ASAP. 59 Erween Mills Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Revenues • • • Delta in Units Sold Delta in price Change in product mix – grades of palm oil sold Market & Regulations Costs • • • • • Change in COGS Change in costs across the value chain Change in machinery efficiency / maintenance costs Change in fixed costs – rent, SG&A Change in tax rates, additional duties paid • • • • Regulatory changes making quality checks more stringent Political volatility leading to shifts and demand and supply Palm oil substitutes being scaled and commercialized Small mills popping up and creating local monopolies 60 Exhibit #1 Operating Expenses ($M) 60 Machinery Operations 55 10 12 Raw Materials 50 Labor 45 SG&A 40 9 35 35 30 25 5 20 15 22 13 10 5 36 7 6 5 4 4 5 6 5 2019 2020 2021 0 2018 61 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #1 Exhibit #1 Guidance: Analysis: • Post framework discussion, push candidate towards Costs / Operating Expenses • Raw material costs have increased to ~3x the 2018 levels – maybe due to poor supplier mix, increase in supplier power, etc. • Good candidate – Will observe that raw material cost is increasing rapidly • Excellent candidate – Will also like to investigate PP&E post solving for raw material cost increase • PP&E expenses have increased to ~2x the 2018 levels – Reduced throughput, increase in maintenance costs, etc. • Labor and SG&A are relatively steady • Ask candidate what might lead to high raw material cost – push candidate towards supplier selection Exhibit #2 - Which Supplier should EM select? 62 Exhibit #2 Palm Fruit Supplier Map Supplier A - Material Cost - $175 per ton 50 miles Mills Supplier C - Material Cost - $112 per ton - Import Duty – 5% Supplier D - Material Cost - $124 per ton 75 miles 220 miles 105 miles Supplier B - Material Cost - $140 per ton Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #2 Exhibit #2 Guidance: • Prompt candidate that Erween Mills wants to choose a new supplier for crude palm oil – how should they proceed? • Candidate should approach this problem by calculating total cost of raw material per ton (supplier + transportation + taxes/duties) • Give the following info (only when candidate asks, or is stuck) – – – – Last year's supply was 1,500 tons Shiping cost is $1.6 per ton per mile VAT is 12.5% for each location, to be added to raw material cost only Import duty for Supplier C is 5%; to be added to overall cost Analysis: 64 Exhibit #3 Prompt #3: To reduce machinery operations cost, the firm is considering two options: – 1) Purchasing a new equipment ($500K investment) – 2) Overhauling the old equipment ($300K investment) How would you make a choice, what will be your choice, and why? Current New Overhaul 50,000 50,000 50,000 Raw Material Cost per ton ($) 35 35 35 Raw Material savings (% per ton) - 20% 15% 10,000 5,000 6,000 3 3 4 Production Volume (tons) Maintenance Cost ($) Maintenance Frequency (times per year) For the current machine, assume raw material to finished product ratio to be 1:1 66 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #3 Exhibit #1 Guidance: • How – Candidate should point towards ROI • What – After calculating the cost savings for each scenario and the corresponding investments, candidate should calculate ROI (if asked, tell them to calculate ROI for 3 years) • Overhaul has a higher ROI and should be the primary choice Analysis: • Throughput for all three scenarios will be the same at 50,000 tons • The savings is in the amount of raw material needed for producing 50,000 tons of palm oil • Calculate total cost (raw material + maintenance) for each scenario – Multiply maintenance cost * frequency – Multiple $35*(Raw material needed) • Current – $35*50k • New Equipment - $35*80%*50k • Overhaul - $35*85%*50k • Calculate ROI for Scenario 2 and 3 – ROI = (Cost Savings – Investment)/Investment Production Volume (tons) Raw Material Cost per ton ($) Raw Material savings (% per ton) Total Raw Material Cost ($) Maintenance Cost ($) Maintenance Frequency (times per year) Total Maintenance Cost ($) Total Cost ($) Cost Savings ($) Investment($) ROI (3 years) Current 50,000 35 1,750,000 10,000 3 30,000 1,780,000 - - New 50,000 35 20% 1,400,000 5,000 3 15,000 1,415,000 365,000 500,000 119% Overhaul 50,000 35 15% 1,487,500 6,000 4 24,000 1,511,500 268,500 300,000 169% 67 Erween Mills Recommendation • Recommendation is to go ahead and start contract with Supplier D to reduce raw material costs • Also, overhauling machinery will reduce machinery operations cost with a 3-year ROI of ~170% Risks and Next Steps: • Risks – Quality, reliability issues in Supplier D – Overhaul implementation risks, delays, leading to lower throughput – Demand volatility of palm oil • Next Steps • Move 10%-15% of sourcing to Suppler D and test quality and reliability • Build robust execution plan for fast overhaul of mill machinery 68 Orange Music Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Media and Entertainment Growth/Cost Interviewee Medium 69 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Most significant achievement in life Question 2: • Why consulting? 70 Orange Music Prompt #1: Orange Music, a music streaming app, is losing market share to its primary competitor Soundhaven, for the past 3 years. Additionally, Orange Music’s Ad Spend as a % of revenue has been increasing and has become higher than Soundhaven’s. Orange Music needs your help to turn things around. Case Background: • Background information – – OM’s main goal is to increase market share and reduce Ad Spend (% of revenue) – OM operates in NA (North America), LAD (Latin America Division), and EMEA (Europe, Middle East, and Africa) – OM has 4 main competitors; all have a higher YoY growth than OM – OM earns revenue through in app ads, user subscriptions, and partnerships 71 Orange Music Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Ad Spend Reduction Growth Levers • • Organic • UX/ UI changes • Exclusive content • Bundling options with cell phone carriers • Partnerships with hardware companies Inorganic • Acquisitions • • • • Changing marketing channel mix Moving from Google Ads to Google SEO Improve CTR (Click through rate) and conversions of digital ads Explore influencer marketing Implementation Strategy • • • • Use pilot – scale approach for organic growth strategies If inorganic, conduct commercial due diligence for potential acquisition targets Change marketing channel mix for certain target segments and check success rate Launch-Learn-IterateLaunch model Push candidate towards competitive landscape 72 Exhibit #1 Music streaming market landscape 2022 Market Share YoY Growth Ad spend (% of revenue) Geographies Orange Music 22% 2% 20% NA, LAD, EMEA Play 360 5% 15% 40% LAD, APAC Audio Auteur 12% 10% 15% NA, APAC Soundhaven 30% 5% 18% Global Boss Music 17% 5% 25% Global NA – North America, LAD – Latin America Division, EMEA – Europe, Middle East, and Africa, APAC – Asia Pacific 73 Guidance for Exhibit #1 Exhibit #1 Guidance: • Candidate should see the market landscape and realize that there is a potential for inorganic growth through acquisitions Analysis: • Objective is to increase market share rapidly – inorganic growth is a good strategy • Play 360 • Candidate should finalize Audio Auteur as the primary acquisition target – Market share of 5% is good; growth of 15% is good; but ad spend is very high (our second goal is to reduce CAC) • Boss Music • Post clearing this exhibit, nudge candidate towards the second problem – Ad spend – Almost as big as Orange Music – difficult to acquire, may lead to a merger; Growth rate not as good as Audio Auteur or Play 360; ad spend is very high at 25% • Audio Auteur – Good market share, double digit growth, low ad spend – better acquisition target than the rest – Second order – Will unlock Orange Music’s presence in APAC 74 Exhibit #2 Orange Music’s Cost per Click ($ per click) Orange Music’s Ad Spend Breakdown (% of total Ad Spend) 1,00 35% 40% 1,00 1,00 0,75 0,75 0,60 0,60 0,60 0,55 0,50 0,50 2019 2020 20% 0,80 25% 25% 25% 50% 25% 35% 10% 5% 5% 2020 2021 2022 Social Media Google Ads Display Ads BTL Ads 2021 Social Media Google Ads Display Ads BTL Ads 1. Ad Spend = (#Clicks)*($ per click) 2. BTL – Below the Line, Offline ads 75 Guidance for Exhibit #2 Exhibit #2 Guidance: • In Exhibit #2, no math is needed • Candidate should highlight the following critical insights – – Candidate should remember from the prompt that the increase in ad spend is as a % of total revenue – Display Ads spend as a % of total Ad spend is increasing and that might lead to the increase in total ad spend (as % of revenue) – Display Ads spend can increase due to either increase in $ per click or increase in #clicks – The line chart suggests that its not a $ per click issue – Increase in #clicks is increasing ad spend (% of revenue) as OM is not getting the same revenue for the same #clicks (low conversion rate) • Once the candidate gives this insight, ask the for the final recommendation Analysis: • Bar chart – We know that ad spend is increasing YoY for OM. From 2019 to 2021, we see that there has been a significant share shift from Social Media Ads to Display Ads. Google Ads and BTL (Below the Line) ads have largely stayed the same – This share shift might be due to • Increase in cost per click for Display Ads • Increase in #clicks for Display Ads • Increase in both • Line Chart – We see that cost per click for Display Ads have gone down. This suggests that the share shift happened due to an increase in the #clicks in Display Ads – This increase in number of clicks led to an increase in Ads spend (as % of Revenue). This is because the conversion rate for these clicks is lower than other channels. Hence, for the same ad spend, OM is getting lower revenues 76 Orange Music Recommendation • To gain market share, OM should consider the acquisition of Audio Auteur given the company has good market share, growth, and lower Ad spend. It will also unlock OM’s presence in APAC • To reduce Ad spend, OM should focus its marketing efforts away from Display Ads as conversion rates are low Risks and Next Steps: • Risks – – Acquisition gone wrong due to poor synergies – Soundhaven acquiring Play 360 – Volatility in conversion rates and $ per click for current digital marketing channels in use • Next Steps – – Launch Perform commercial due diligence of Audio Auteur – Change marketing channel mix for certain target segments and check success rate 77 Athletic Athleisure Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Consumer & Retail M&A Interviewee Medium 78 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Tell me about a time you made a decision with incomplete information. – What information did you have? – What was the result? Question 2: • Tell me about a time you overcame a challenge to build an important relationship. – What were the challenges to the relationship? – How did you establish/improve the relationship through the challenge? – What did you do to overcome the challenge? 79 Athletic Athleisure Prompt #1: • Athletic Athleisure (AA) is a boutique, high-end athletic apparel brand that is considering acquiring Vinyasapp, an app-based yoga and Pilates platform. The app has been performing very well over the past two years, so the management team at Vinyasapp is willing to sell for $50M. Should Athletic Athleisure purchase this company? Case Background: – Client/Company information: AA has strong brand recognition and enjoys a positive reputation in its industry. – Industry/Competition information: The wellness industry has grown exponentially in recent years, as individuals have become more concerned about their health and are exploring more convenient ways to exercise. – Product information: AA’s customers are very loyal to its brand and its main customers are individuals who practice yoga and Pilates regularly. Their products include compression and moisture-wicking workout attire and accessories. Their customers are generally technologically savvy and would be interested in taking virtual workout classes. – Value Chain/Revenue information: In recent quarters, AA has experienced a decline in profitability due to supply chain constraints and an increase in fixed operating costs from keeping large stores open. They are considering closing down some of their brick-and-mortar locations in favor of selling more of their products online. – Any constraints on the case: AA’s CEO wants to reverse the trend in profitability and hopes to add $8M in annual EBITDA over the next 3 years 80 Athletic Athleisure Framework Buckets: a Market Synergies Target Market • Target company • Projected revenue • Projected profit • Product • Customers • Competitive landscape Synergies • Branding • Revenue growth • Cost reduction Capabilities & Risks Capabilities & Risks • Labor attrition r/t store closures • Management • Technical expertise • Marketing Financing Financing/Deal Economics • Cash, debt or equity financing • Impact on EBITDA target Push candidate towards Market size, Competitor landscape 81 Exhibit #1 Yoga App Market Size, $M 278 +11% 253 234 209 182 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Yoga App Market Share in 2022, % 17 18 Pigeon Pose Pros Vinyasapp 18 16 16 15 Cat Cow Coach Downward Dog for Dummies Warrior II Guru Other Apps 82 Exhibit #2 Vinyasapp 2022 Operating Expenses, $M Marketing & Sales 11 General & Administrative 6 App Development 18 Cost of Revenue 9 0 5 10 15 20 83 Interviewer guidance on Exhibits Exhibit #1 Guidance: Exhibit #2 Guidance: • Interviewee should notice that the market is growing and that Vinyasapp is the largest player in the market • Interviewee should identify that App Development costs are the largest expense (represent over 40% of operating costs – there is potential to cut costs here in order to improve EBITDA; however, it might be unwise to cut given the competitive nature of the yoga app market) • Interviewee should be able to calculate revenue from the information given: – 18% x $278M = $50M • After calculating revenues, candidate should transition towards identifying costs and calculating the EBITDA • Interviewee should calculate total operating expenses: – $11 + $6 + $18 + $9 = $44M • Interviewee should then use revenue from Exhibit 1 to calculate EBITDA: – $50M - $44M = $6M Post EBITDA calculations, the candidate should start estimating the enterprise value of Vinyasapp. If candidate asks for DCF info, nudge towards multiples method of valuation and show Exhibit #3 84 Exhibit #3 Recent Sports & Recreation App Acquisitions Company Name Description EBITDA Selling Price ABC Athlete Personalized fitness app to connect people new to fitness with activities (HIIT, Powerlifting, endurance sports, etc.) that fits their interests, goals, and schedule. $31M $217M PostPros Fitness An app that connects newly retired athletes with trainers that can take revamp their training plans to focus on long-term health and longevity. $15M $135M Expansion Equipment Marketplace for parents to exchange used youth sports gear as their children grow. $23M $253M Flawless Form Advanced fitness app that uses a smartphone’s camera and AI to provide real-time feedback on an athlete’s form through complex movements (Olympic lifts, plyometrics, etc.). $20M $160M Slim Down Countdown Guided diet and exercise app for people trimming down for a big event (weddings, vacations, blind dates, etc.). Set a target improvement area (gain muscle, lose fat, etc.) and date. The app will develop a customized diet and exercise plan for users to meet their goals. $18M $144M 85 Interviewer guidance on Exhibits Exhibit #3 Guidance: • Interviewee should use comparable deals to calculate EBITDA multiples (EBITDA divided by Selling Price): – ABC Athlete – 7x – PostPros Fitness – 9x – Expansion Equipment – 11x – Flawless Form – 8x – Slim Down Countdown – 8x • Interviewee should realize that Expansion Equipment is not comparable and should exclude this from the comparable set. They should average the rest (8x) to arrive at their target multiple. • Interviewee should arrive at valuation: $6 x 8 = $48M Analysis: • Vinyasapp’s $50M sticker price is comparable to recent acquisitions, but the additional EBITDA does not entirely satisfy the CEO’s goal in year 1. AA should identify cost cutting initiatives and synergies to increase EBITDA to $8M in the next 2 years 86 Brainstorming Prompt: Analysis: • What should the client consider about expanding into the wellness app space? What are some possible advantages or disadvantages of this expansion strategy? Frame the brainstorm as follows: • Opportunities – This acquisition could represent an entry point into a lucrative and growing wellness app industry – Vinyasapp would diversify AA’s business and help kickstart a move away from traditional brick and mortar retail – AA’s current customers would make natural additions to Vinyasapp’s user base • Challenges/risks – AA does not have expertise in app development – It will likely take significant marketing spend to grow Vinyasapp’s user base, which could jeopardize AA’s EBITDA targets 87 Athletic Athleisure Recommendation As you’re getting a coffee, you run into the CEO of Athletic Athleisure who asks you for an update on the acquisition due diligence. Risks and Next Steps: The candidate should recommend that AA move forward with the acquisition of Vinyassapp and highlight the following points: - Vinyasapp represents an entry point into the growing online wellness industry - Vinyasapp generates ~$6M in EBITDA, which represents an 8.3x multiple - Acquiring Vinyasapp helps AA build towards its goal of adding $8M in annual EBITDA over the next 3 years; however, synergies or cost-cutting opportunities should be identified in order to offset financing costs and reach the company’s EBITDA target The candidate should also highlight the following risks: - AA’s lack of expertise in app development - There is little overlap between the two operating profiles, which could make achieving synergies more difficult - While AA’s customers are willing to take virtual yoga classes, they may already be loyal to other platforms, which could increase customer acquisition costs and hurt AA’s EBITDA goals 88 I Want My Em-TV Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Telecommunications/Media Market Entry/Pricing Interviewer Hard 89 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Tell me about a cause you care about. Question 2: • What is something you’ve learned about yourself recently? 90 I Want My Em-TV Prompt #1: Emerson is a $10b company that offers landline phone and broadband internet services to an area with 20 million households and businesses. To diversify their revenue, Emerson has decided to enter the television market. They have invested in cable boxes that can be used by homes and businesses to watch tv. Emerson has sought our help to determine their pricing strategy, independent of their existing phone and internet plans, to maximize profit and whether they will be able to successfully beat competitors. Case Background: – Emerson has 50% market share in their region. – 80% of their customers are households and 20% are businesses. – Pay television networks (e.g. HBO, Showtime) have set rates that should not be considered in the pricing strategy. – There are two other companies that provide cable boxes in the area and both are smaller than Emerson. They also compete with DirectTV (satellite tv provider). – The infrastructure is already in place so startup costs are minimal and can be excluded for the purposes of this case. – Emerson believes they need to be 15% below market prices in order to attract customers. – Emerson wants at least a 25% margin on their services. 91 I Want My Em-TV Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Financial Analysis • • • • Revenue projections Investment costs Variable costs Financial feasibility • NPV • ROI • Payback Company Market/Competition • • • • Market Size CAGR – Growing, mature, declining Fragmentation Customer preferences, WTP • • • • Current financial health – leverage, revenues, etc. Execution capabilities Synergies with other LOBs Supply chain / supplier relations 92 Exhibit #1 Market Research: Average Prices for Cable Packages of Competitors Number of Channels in Package Number of Cable Boxes 1 2 3 4 5+ 10 $35 $45 $55 $60 $70 35 $45 $60 $65 $75 $80 80 $60 $70 $80 $85 $95 150 $85 $90 $95 $105 $115 400 $140 $160 $170 $185 $190 % Customers 40% 20% 15% 15% 10% 93 Exhibit #2 List of Variable Costs for Cheetah Cable Television Services Expense Type Cost Each Cable Box $5 Channel / Account $0.25 Installation / Account $5 Support / Account $10 94 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #1 Guidance: Analysis: • The point of the exhibit is for the interviewee to think through what is driving the price from our competitors. • Heavy math on the exhibit is not required Basic: • The price increases more for larger packages than for an extra cable box. Additional Information • The packages are standard within the industry and are the only options for customers (e.g. they can’t mix and match channels). • Emerson plans to use this same package structure. – The price for the largest tv package is between 3.5 and 5 times higher than the price for the smallest package – The price for 5 cable boxes is never more than double the price for 1 cable box within the same tv package • Customers tend to purchase 1 or 2 boxes Advanced • There are higher costs associated with package increases than with cable box increases. When the interview has finished their analysis, they should ask for or be given cost estimates for Emerson’s cable tv operations (Exhibit 2). 95 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #2 Guidance: Supply if not asked by the interviewee: • Emerson believes they need to be 15% below the market in order to attract customers. • Emerson wants at least a 25% margin on their services. The goal is for the interviewee to create a basic framework for pricing the cable boxes and tv service based on the costs. If their prices include the required 25% margin and are still 15% below average market price, they should expect their launch to be successful. A good strategy is to have a base price that accounts for installation and support, then add set rates for each cable box and channel package based on a per channel rate. Margins (25%) and Competitive Pricing (15%) should also be considered (during or after itemized computation) The interviewee does not need to price every combination of package and boxes. Once they have determined a strategy and set rates, the interviewer can ask them to spot check combinations to verify strategy. Analysis: • Account Costs = $15 (Installation + Support). Add 40% for margin and competitive pricing requirements ($6). The minimum base price = $21. • Cable boxes cost Emerson $5. Plus 40% ($2) = $7 minimum per box. • Channels cost Emerson $0.25. Add 40% ($0.10) = $0.35 minimum per channel. Therefore, Emerson can price an account with 1 box and a 10-channel package for no less than: $21 + $7 + (10*$0.35) = $31.50. This is below the average market price of $35, so they should expect to be successful with this strategy. Candidate should compute the pricing for all packages in the "1 box" category and see if this pricing strategy holds true. Advanced: An astute interviewee will notice that they cannot include their 25% margin and be 15% cheaper than the market for the 400-channel package. They may offer a hypothesis as to why and/or make suggestions about what to do about it. 96 Brainstorming Prompt: • What other factors should Emerson consider when planning to enter the cable tv market? Analysis: • Pricing-related – – – – Bundling with Phone/Broadband Promotions/Discounts Marketing/Advertising Customer Segmentation (e.g. Households and businesses) – Raising prices over time once they gain market share • Additional Product Features – Streaming service partnerships – Revenue and cost synergies with phone and internet – Value of data from customers on viewing habits • Risks – Poor service could negatively impact their existing client relationships – Declining TV viewership – New technology could disrupt market 97 I Want My Em-TV Recommendation • We recommend that Emerson enters the market in the 1 box category for the 10, 35, 80, and 150 channels packages given they have a margin target of 25% and pricing competitiveness target of 15% Risks and Next Steps: • Risks – Competitors lowering their prices leading to price wars – Internet substituting cable TV – Implementation risks • Next Steps – Pilot in selected geographies to test pricing strategy and sales – Ideate bundling strategies with current phone and broadband services 98 Audio Inc. Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Consumer/Health Tech Market Entry Interviewer Hard 99 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • What career achievement are you most proud of? Question 2: • Tell me about a time you failed at something, and then how you responded to this experience. 100 Audio Inc. Prompt #1: • Audio Inc is a consumer tech company specializing in headphones, speakers, and audio equipment. Lately, they have been losing market share to competitors in the domestic headphones market, and they have been exploring ways to increase revenue. They are considering entering the health tech space by developing a direct-to-consumer hearing aid. Currently, hearing aids require assistance from an audiologist to set up, and the process takes weeks before the patient has the hearing aid in hand. Audio Inc.’s product would ship in 2 days and allow patients to set it up at home without the help of a doctor. Audio Inc wants your help to understand if this product launch is a good idea. Case Background: • Client/Company information: Audio Inc primarily sells headphones, speakers, and other premium audio equipment (think Bose) • Objective: Assess product viability; reach $1B annual revenue by 2026 (4 years from now) and $100M of total, cumulative net profit for the project by 2026 • Industry/Competition information: Audio Inc. has been losing market share in core products (headphones) to larger competitors with stronger brand appeal • Value Chain/Revenue information: Audio Inc. develops, manufactures, and distributes audio equipment. They sell through retail channels, amazon, and a small percentage as direct to consumer through their website • Geography: US only • Product information: To be shared in the case 101 Audio Inc. Prompt #1: What factors should Audio Inc. consider when making this strategic decision? Framework Buckets: • A suitable framework should investigate the typical factors involved in a new product offering: Market • Hearing aid total market size & growth rate • Winnable share of market • Major competitors/market fragmentation (+ potential competitor response) Financials Capabilities • Investment needed (internal R&D or M&A/partnership) • Technological overlap between headphones and hearing aids • Build (internal R&D) • Product margins (and resulting project profitability/ROI) • Fit of current brand, customer base, and/or distribution to hearing aid market • Borrow (partner) • Product pricing strategy (and basis, e.g. costplus) Entry Strategy • Buy (M&A) • Manufacturing strategy (in-house or contract) • Potential regulatory risks and pushback from audiologists • Given the client’s disruptive plan and nature of US healthcare, Risks could be compiled under a separate category • Entry strategy is important to consider but not evaluated in this case 102 Audio Inc. Prompt #2: What is the total addressable market for hearing aids in the US on an annual basis? And how much of that can Audio Inc. realistically capture? Guidelines for the interviewer: This is a guided market sizing exercise. Only if the candidate asks, provide following information – • 5% of US population uses hearing aids • Average lifespan of a hearing aid is 5 years • Average price of a hearing aid is $ 900 When the candidate asks for information on competitors/market share provide Exhibit #1. If they ask for this immediately, push them to size the overall market first, and then supply it. Solution: • A good candidate will create a structure for market sizing before moving to calculations • A good candidate will follow up with the interviewer from time to time to get their input • The approach used for market sizing is more important than the final answer Example of an approach that can be used – Total population of USA. = 300M % of population that uses hearing aid = 5% % of population buying hear aid each year = 5% / 5 = 1% Total hearing aids sold in a year = 300M x 1 % = 3M Average price of hearing aid = $900 Total market for hearing aid in a year = $900 x 3M = $2.7B 103 Exhibit #1 104 Audio Inc. Analysis for Exhibit #1: • Good candidates will be able to understand and clearly explain the key information in the exhibit: – Enough market fragmentation to enter and take share, but unlikely to dominate – Hearing aids are a smaller market than their two existing core markets shown – perhaps there are better alternatives to enter (i.e. opportunity cost) • Strong candidates should realize that the market leader in hearing aids holds 20% share. Hence, Audio Inc. could achieve at most 20% of $3B market = 600M/year • Strong candidates will remember the target is to achieve $1B is revenue by 2026 which is 1/3rd of the total hearing aid market and would be extremely difficult If candidate asks, market growth outlook for hearing aids is flat YoY 105 Audio Inc. Prompt #3: Analysis: Audio Inc. has determined that the hearing aid market is an attractive market and presents a strong revenue opportunity, provided they can gain market share. Aside from competition, what are some other risk areas to consider before launching this new product? Risk factors to propose could include: Guideline for the Interviewer: Let the candidate continue to brainstorm till they arrive as financials/cost as an important factor. Distribution: What is the ideal distribution channel for this product? Will patients know to look for DTC hearing aids online? Will retailers be willing to stock medical equipment? Will doctor’s offices recommend this product? Potential mini-structures are: • Financial/Non-financial • Short Term/Long Term • Internal/External After brainstorm, provide Prompt #4 Financial: What is the R&D cost? Would additional employees/engineers need to be hired to develop this product? What is the payback period? Regulatory: How involved is the FDA approval process? Would insurance providers cover this product? Consumers: How is hearing-aid purchasing behavior different from headphones? Will older, commonly fixed-income hearing aid customer be price sensitive/limited? Will there be insurance coverage implications that reduce the total addressable market? Brand: What are the branding implications for this new product? How should we brand and advertise this product differently from existing products? 106 Audio Inc. Prompt #4: Audio Inc. is strongly considering developing this hearing aid product in-house. What would be the project’s total revenue and profits over the next four years? (Provide exhibit #2) 107 Exhibit #2 Revenue and Costs (2023-26) Sales Figures 2023 2024 2025 2026 Projected Customers 90,000 250,000 400,000 700,000 MSRPⁱ $900 $900 $810 $810 Expenses 2023 2024 2025 2026 R&D $265M $35M - - COGSⁱⁱ $300 $300 $270 $270 ⁱ MSRP for a packaged set of tw o hearing aids ⁱⁱ COGS of a single hearing aid 108 Audio Inc. Analysis for Exhibit #2: Main insight (1): Annual revenue for 2026 is $567M (<$1B) Main insight (2): Gross revenues total ~$1.2B, Costs total ~$1.1B, ➔ $100M in total net profit Good candidates will: • Calculate (1) Gross revenue = Σ [ MSRPs * volumes ] & (2) Total net profit = [ Σ gross revenue - Σ costs ] • Determine that Audio Inc. will not meet its target of achieving $1B in annual revenue by 2026, but will reach the $100M cumulative net profit target Strong candidates will: • Realize that gross margin is 33% all four years; gross profit is therefore gross revenue * (1/3) Calculation Instructions: 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 = 𝛴 𝑀𝑆𝑅𝑃 × 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑎𝑙𝑙 𝑦𝑒𝑎𝑟𝑠 = $1,197M = $𝟏. 𝟐𝐁 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑙𝑜𝑛𝑔 𝑚𝑒𝑡ℎ𝑜𝑑 = 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 − [𝑅&𝐷 + 𝛴 𝐶𝑂𝐺𝑆 × 𝑣𝑜𝑙𝑢𝑚𝑒 ] = $1.2B − [$0.3B + $0.8B] = $𝟎. 𝟏𝐁 𝑁𝑒𝑡 𝑃𝑟𝑜𝑓𝑖𝑡 𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑟𝑐𝑢𝑡 = 𝐺𝑟𝑜𝑠𝑠 𝑟𝑒𝑣𝑒𝑛𝑢𝑒 × 1 1 − 𝑅&𝐷 = $1.2B × − $0.3B = $𝟎. 𝟏𝐁 3 3 *Candidate can ignore all other expenses (SG&A, etc.) to arrive at net profit 109 Audio Inc. Prompt #5 (can skip if candidate is progressing slowly): For Audio Inc.’s to achieve their $1B annual revenue goal, they are considering increasing prices. Based on the following product performance information, do you think Audio Inc.’s product is fit for the market, and they could increase their MSRP over average market price? (Provide Exhibit #3) 110 Exhibit #3 Product Performance for Hearing Aids 10 5 9 4 Importance 7 6 3 5 4 2 Performance Rating 8 3 2 1 1 0 0 Audio Quality Comfort Customer Importance Reliability Audio Inc.* Ease of Use Be Sound Auraflex Battery Life HearAll *Audio Inc. product performance data approximated from prototype trial 111 Audio Inc. Analysis for Exhibit #3: • Main Insight: Audio Inc. likely cannot increase price above MSRP; it trails Be Sound and Hearall in 2 of the 3 most important product performance characteristics • Interviewee should identify which performance characteristics are most important and then assess Audio Inc. position against key competitors Recommendation • No separate recommendation is required of the interviewee in this case • Overall, there is no clear answer. The logical recommendation is likely not to invest in this project due to combined low ROI of 9%, lagging customer performance ratings, and numerous entry risks. However, wellsupported argument to mitigate those risks and proceed with project are acceptable. Risks and Next Steps: • No separate risks and next steps are required of the interviewee in this case • Risks and next steps should be covered during brainstorm portions 112 State of Blue Devils Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Public Sector (Construction/Infrastructure) Growth/Strategy Interviewer Hard 113 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Tell me about a time you influenced a senior stakeholder Question 2: • Tell me about a time you used data to solve an ambiguous problem 114 State of Blue Devils Prompt #1: • Your client, state of “Blue Devils” is looking to grow their capital project footprint postCovid-19 now that construction restrictions have been lifted. They are particularly interested in infrastructure and construction projects and have come to you asking for help setting a strategic growth plan. How would you advise your client? Case Background: • Background information to be divided into these categories (Please mark N/A if information is not provided)– – Client/Company information – Public sector, state government – Industry/Competition information – US market – Any constraints on the case – Labour force is currently constrained – Specific goal – The current construction investment is $200M. We aim to reach $1B of construction in 3 years 115 State of Blue Devils Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) (Organic vs Inorganic not possible here) Financials • • • • • Where is the money coming from/Financing Spending plan Budget plan Investment and bonds Budget ceilings (per year) Market Implementation • • • • • • • Jobs Public scrutiny Tax department Government Local population Regulations Sustainability • • • • Labour – source and type, availability Contractors – negotiations of contracts, availability of large contractors in the area State economy and capability How to compete against private industry 116 Brainstorming Prompt: • The client has identified that labor availability after COVID-19 is challenging in their state. How would you suggest easing this issue? Analysis: – Financial • • • • Interviewer Guidance: – Internal/External also works as long it covers these points Financial Incentives to work in the state Attractive contract terms and bonuses for meeting goals/deadlines Profit sharing when applicable – Operational • • Moving machinery and labor around the state Supply chain robustness to ensure labor is not affected by lack of supplies or poor inventory in the area – Marketing • • • Advertising work and scale to contractors and the attractive wages for labor Benefits to labor for working on project and for their families Advertising the cause for improving people’s lives through infrastructure 117 Exhibit #1 – Your client is concerned recent budget forecasts are affecting their project completion timelines, and the overall bottom line, what do you observe in this exhibit? Accumulated budget forecast vs actual spend, $M 260 240 Cumulative Project Spend/Investment ($M) 220 Original Forecast Finance Forecast Actual project spend 200 180 160 140 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-21 Jul-21 Jan-22 Jul-22 Year 118 Interviewer guidance on Exhibits Exhibit #1 Guidance: Analysis: • The chart is for interpretation. This exhibit has 3 lines, the original forecast of the project budget, the budget finance uses, (which has been delayed) and the actual final budget and timeline from construction • Takeaways: – Project delay at the start – Difference in forecast to actual – Actual always lower – 5-year timeline, $200M actual project spend – Optimistic original forecast – Opportunity cost due to budget lock – Excellent candidates • The finance team is locked to a budget forecast 6 months prior to actual costs due to liquidity issues. • This budget lock is leading to an opportunity cost i.e. the company is not being able to invest the money elsewhere to earn interest (securities, stocks, bonds, etc.) - Push candidate towards this insight and move to the next prompt 119 Prompt #2 – How much money is foregone in interest earned due to improper budgetary planning and how would this translate to a $1B portfolio Prompt #3 Guidance: Analysis: • To calculate FOREGONE REVENUE, the candidate needs to ask for the right information regarding difference in forecasts. • The calculation includes 2 parts: – Calculating net investment income lost – Optional - for excellent candidate: Calculating effect of this loss on a $1B portfolio of projects (based on prompt) • Provide if asked: – The average annual difference in actual vs forecast income over this time frame is $15M – Interest rate is 8% per annum. – Excellent candidate will ask for inflation rate. But we assume that it will be 0%. • For good candidate, the total foregone interest expense: 15M*8%*5=6M • Excellent candidates can show second-level thinking – what if this gap is applied to a 2B project? 6M*1B/200M (the $200M is from the upper bound of the graph for the actual project spend line) 120 Brainstorming Prompt: • The client is interested in making more accurate forecasts moving forward as this is instrumental for appropriate capital management and setting realistic timelines. How would you recommend your client approach this? Analysis: – Internal • • • • • • Clear expectations and communication internally between teams Using historical benchmarks and iterating Improved forecasting and tracking Quantification of processes to better understand factors that cause discrepancies and disruptions Optimizing investments to minimize loss due to budgets Estimation algorithms – External • • • • Working with contractors that complete work on time historically Better communication with contractors and managers to understand evolution of project timelines and delays Favorable payment terms with vendors for better capital management Payment plans 121 State of Blue Devils Recommendation • The Governor of Blue Devils would like a final recommendation on implementing a strong infrastructure growth plan. What would you recommend? • Recommendation should target adding improvements to budgetary and planning processes to ensure viable long-term growth Risks and Next Steps: • Risks – Labor market – can the government effectively attract talent – Financial strain, Can the government find the money per year – Operational training and implementation of improvements • Next Steps – How to implement changes – Working with marketing team to attract talent 122 Muni Golf Opportunity Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Real Estate/Private Equity M&A, Market Sizing Interviewee Hard 123 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Tell me about a time you had to make a decision with limited information. Candidate should respond with a relevant CAR (Challenge, Action, Result) story. Action portion of the response should delineate how candidate structured the decisionmaking process to reach action in a reasoned manner absent necessary data/information. Strong answers will use #s throughout. Time constraint in Challenge, impact of Results, etc. Question 2: • What do you consider your greatest strength? Candidate should express their personal view of their greatest strength and then relate a CAR story validating how that strength led to personal and professional success. 124 Muni Golf Opportunity Prompt: Our client, FSB Capital Holdings LLP is a real estate focused private equity firm, with experience in developing and operating properties over medium to long term time horizons. Recently, the FSB Capital deal origination team has been made aware that the City of San Diego in California is considering divesting one of its municipal golf properties, the Balboa Park Golf Course located near downtown San Diego. FSB Capital has engaged us to value the potential asset, evaluate potential growth strategies for the property if acquired, and provide a final recommendation regarding whether to pursue a deal with the City of San Diego. Case Background: • Client/Company information: FSB Capital has experience operating golf resorts, hotels, and developing commercial and limited residential real estate. • Industry/Competition information: Nearby privately-held Riverwalk GC (27-hole course) is being redeveloped into a master-planned community of housing, offices, shops, and an 80-acre riverside park. • Product information: Course consists of an 18-hole championship course, 9-hole executive course, driving range, pro-shop, and clubhouse bar/restaurant. – Property is situated on the Southeast corner of the larger Balboa Park complex which contains the famed City Zoo, museums, and the Naval Medical Center. (think a corner of Central Park) – Course is 5 minutes from downtown, Convention Center, hotels, historic nightlife district (Gaslamp) – Residential communities border the course to the east and south. • Value Chain/Revenue information: Golf revenue comes from golfers paying a greens fee for a round of golf. Typical round consists of 4 golfers. Patrons often buy food & alcohol on the course or after a round • Any constraints on the case: N/A 125 Muni Golf Opportunity Framework Buckets: Valuation I. II. III. Free Cash Flow Method: a. Net Income from Operations b. Appropriate Discount Rate Multiples Method: a. Comparable deals b. Raw acreage $/ft on property c. Sales or earning multiple IRR a. Acquisition cost b. Cash flows I. II. Growth Levers Long-Term Strategy Growth on Existing Assets: a. Pricing play on golf course b. Grow restaurant revenues Redevelopment: a. Hotel b. Residential I. II. a. b. Roll forward to a secondary fund if asset is generating cash and growth continues Sell to subsequent investor Entire portfolio asset Crack the asset and sell off pieces to cover the initial investment, retain a cash generating piece. 126 Muni Golf Opportunity Alternate Framework: Free Cash Flow Method Valuation 1 Multiples Method Golf Facilities Bar/Restaurant Existing Infrastructure Residential Growth Levers 2 New Development Commercial 127 Exhibit #1 128 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #1 Exhibit #1 Guidance: Analysis: Candidate should quickly recognize that the existing rate card is too complex to model the Discounted Cash Flow valuation and make key assumptions to simplify the calculations: Prompt candidate if struggling with how to proceed, should approach like market sizing • Separate rates for resident/non-residents superfluous as the course would no longer be city owned. Candidate should pick a round number to simplify math. Can roll up to ~avg spend per golfer including food & drink • Separate weekday/weekend rates should remain • Ignore Sr./Junior rates • Tee times can be staggered either every 12 minutes (5 groups of 4 golfers/hr) or every 15 minutes (4 groups of 4 golfers/hr) • Cart fees can either be rolled up into higher golf rates (charge everyone, even walkers) or can be applied as a fraction of golfers. *only on the 18 hole course • Optional: Current rate card has 5 different Twilight times: simplify into 2 seasons, Peak: 8 months (Mar – Oct) of 12 hr operating days, Off-Peak: 4 months (Nov – Feb) of 10 hr operating days, twilight rates apply to last 4 hours of operations of 18-hole course. If they choose to ignore/simplify they should state that • Candidates will not generate the exact revenue numbers in the example math – That is OK • Focus should be on remaining structured and logical as they conduct a bottoms-up market sizing of the revenue 1. Assume a fee per golfer 2. # golfers per round 3. Rounds per hour 4. Hours per day 5. Days a week 6. Weeks per year 7. Annual Revenue! • Strong candidates will recognize product dynamics (twilight rates, cart fees, etc.) and incorporate them into their analysis 129 Exhibit #1: Off Peak Revenue Data Greens Fee w/cart x golfers per tee time Revenue per tee time x tee times/hr (10, 12, or 15 min) Revenue per hour Calculations Weekday Weekend $60 $80 4 4 $240 $320 5 $1,200 5 $1,600 Peak Off-Peak Weekend Hourly Revenue x Off Peak Hours OP Weekend Daily Revenue x Days per Weekend OP Weekend Revenue x Off Peak Weeks Hours of Operation 12 10 Weeks in Each Season 30 20 Total Off Peak Weekend Revenue Weekday Hourly Revenue x Off Peak Hours OP Weekday Daily Revenue x Days per Week OP Weekday Revenue x Off Peak Weeks Total Off Peak Weekday Revenue $1,600 10 $16,000 2 $32,000 20 $640,000 $1,200 10 $12,000 5 $60,000 20 $1,200,000 130 Exhibit #1: Off Peak Revenue (Discount) Data Off Peak Twilight Hours 4/10 Twilight Discount Calculations 40% ~25% Total Off Peak Weekend Revenue % Revenue Twilight hrs Undiscounted WE Twilight Revenue x (1 - Discount) Total OP Weekend Twilight Revenue + OP Non-Twilight Revenue (640K-250K) Total OP Weekend Revenue After Discount $640,000 40% Round to $256,000 $250K 0.75 Round to $187,500 $190K $390,000 Rounded $580,000 #s Total Off Peak Weekday Revenue % Revenue Twilight hrs Undiscounted WD Twilight Revenue x (1 - Discount) Total OP Weekday Twilight Revenue + OP Non-Twilight Revenue (1.2M-480K) $1,200,000 40% $480,000 0.75 $360,000 $720,000 Total OP Weekday Revenue After Discount $1,080,000 Total OP Weekday Revenue After Discount $ 1,080,000 Total OP Weekend Revenue After Discount Total OP Revenue $ 580,000 $ 1,660,000 131 Exhibit #1: Peak Revenue Data Calculations Weekend Hourly Revenue Weekday Weekend x Peak Hours Greens Fee w/cart $60 $80 x golfers per tee time 4 4 Revenue per tee time $240 $320 x Days per Weekend Peak Weekend Revenue x tee times/hr (10, 12, or 15 min) Revenue per hour Peak Weekend Daily Revenue 5 5 $1,200 $1,600 Peak x Peak Weeks Total Peak Weekend Revenue Weekday Hourly Revenue Off-Peak x Peak Hours Hours of Operation 12 30 12 $19,200 2 $38,400 20 x Days per Week Peak Weekday Revenue x Peak Weeks Total Peak Weekday Revenue Round to $40K 30 $1,200,000 $1,200 12 10 Peak Weekday Daily Revenue Weeks in Each Season $1,600 $14,400 Round to $15K 5 $75,000 30 $2,250,000 132 Exhibit #1: Peak Revenue (Discount) Data Total Peak Weekday Revenue Calculations $2,250,000 % Revenue Twilight hrs 33% Undiscounted WD Twilight Revenue $750,000 x (1 - Discount) 0.75 Total P Weekday Twilight Revenue Total Peak Weekend Revenue % Revenue Twighlight hrs Undiscounted WE Twilight Revenue x (1 - Discount) $1,200,000 33% $400,000 0.75 $562,500 Total OP Weekend Twighlight Revenue $300,000 $1,500,000 + OP Non-twilight Revenue (1.2M-400K) $800,000 $2,062,500 Total OP Weekend Revenue After Discount $1,100,000 Off Peak Twilight Hours 4/12 33% or (1/3) Total P Weekday Revenue After Discount $2,062,500 Twilight Discount ~25% Total P Weekend Revenue After Discount $1,100,000 Total Peak Revenue $3,162,500 + Total Off-Peak Revenue $1,660,000 Annual Revenue $4,822,500 + P Non-twilight Revenue (2.25M-750K) Total Peak Weekday Revenue After Discount 133 Exhibit #1 Discounting Cash Flows Exhibit #1 Discounting • If not asked prompt candidate with following information: “FSB Capital demands strict financial discipline within its portfolio companies. Typically, FSB Cap portfolio companies have an average FCF to Sales ratio of 0.85” • Candidate should ask for an appropriate growth and discount rate, r – g in PV calculation denominator should equal 10%, so (15-5, 12-2, etc.) • Candidate may ask how many years to discount. Prompt them to consider if they expect the FCF to vary year to year. To value the asset on a set # of years they would need to know the cash outflow at Year 0 for the acquisition (what they are supposed to determine: price or valuation). Valuing the asset as a perpetuity is sufficient. • Strong candidates should point out that this valuation is solely based on operational revenues. The land value is not included and could potentially be substantially higher. Analysis: $4.8𝑀 × 0.85 ≈ $4𝑀 𝐹𝐶𝐹 Ask candidate what they think is the best way to triangulate if $40M is attractive. Push them towards comparable, similar business valuations. Hand exhibit 2.1 and 2.2 together and ask for their insights. 134 Exhibit #2.1 Golf Course Satellite Imagery Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #2.1 Exhibit #2 Guidance: Analysis: • Lower right hand is the Executive 9hole course. Approximately 1M ft 2 • Eyeballing the map, that 1M ft 2 could fit into the rest of the course ~3 times. Total area roughly 4M ft 2 Key Takeaways: • Sizable land in the middle of urban core • Proximity to other attractions • Rough land area of ~4M ft 2 • Do there need to be 2 courses? No! If asked: • The 18-hole course is extremely hilly with a canyon running through it (dark green area) • Off map to the East (right side) and South (bottom) are residential neighborhoods. Mostly SingleFamily Homes, some low-rise apartments and condos. 136 Exhibit #2.2 Average San Diego Real Estate Valuations Type of Land $/ft2 Residential $700 Commercial $600 Industrial $300 Undeveloped $350 137 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #2.2 Exhibit #3 Guidance: • Candidate should recognize that they can conduct a very general multiples valuation using ~4M ft2 from Exhibit 2 – This provides a check on the DCF valuation conducted earlier – Strong candidates will bracket the multiples approach at the two extreme comparisons to get a sense of boundaries on the valuation. Not just calculate all 4 . If asked for clarification: • Commercial refers to office space, hotels, large apartment buildings • Industrial is factories, auto repair garages, etc. • Residential is single family homes, townhomes, and small-unit apartments and condos Analysis: Type $/ft2 X Approx. ft2 Valuation Residential $700 X 4,000,000 $2.8B Commercial $600 X 4,000,000 $2.4B Industrial $300 X 4,000,000 $1.2B Undeveloped $350 X 4,000,000 $1.4B 138 Brainstorming Prompt: Analysis: Should FSB acquire the asset, what are some growth strategies they could pursue? Organic: • Raise prices • Rebrand (more hip) – Golf facilities – Restaurant – Marketing • Memberships Inorganic: • Bolt-on acquisitions – Nearby hotels – Nearby restaurants • Partner with other party – Top golf or similar Redevelopment: • Use land for other purposes: – Hotel – Residential housing – Commercial office space 139 Muni Golf Opportunity Recommendation: Pursue Deal FSB Capital should pursue the acquisition of the Balboa Park Golf Course. It is a cash generating asset that we project to generate $4.8M in annual sales from golf operations alone. Discounting the cash flows at the average FSB port-co rate we’ve estimated a value of the golf operations business as approximately $40M. Further, the property value of the land in the land-constrained urban core justifies the acquisition. Risks and Next Steps: • Risks: – California is water constrained, drought could affect ability to maintain quality or regulatory risk. Mitigation: invest in water reclamation infrastructure – Progressive state with housing shortage. City could pull out of deal to pursue housing. Mitigation: seek to partner with city subsidies for redevelopment of housing on portion of land – Local icon, privatization and redevelopment could face local backlash. Mitigation: community outreach, understand the culture and ensure stewardship • Next Steps: – Follow on engagement to assess growth lever viability, review property value trends 140 Muni Golf Opportunity Recommendation: Do not pursue deal FSB Capital should not pursue the acquisition of the Balboa Park Golf Course at this time. The land value (billions) and cost of acquiring far exceeds the cash returns the golf business generates. Unlikely that the golf course operations would be able to service the debt burden from the acquisition. Without information on the zoning and feasibility of redevelopment on the property FSB should not move forward. Risks and Next Steps: • Risks: – Substantial property in expensive urban core of an expensive growing city. Not pursuing a deal means another developer or PE firm could gain advantage. LPs and investors could pull capital. Mitigation: review LP lockup. • Next Steps: – Evaluate other potential acquisition targets. 141 Rush Hour Industry: Case Type: Led by: Case Level: Transportation Market entry Interviewer Hard 142 Behavioral Questions Question 1: • Tell me about a time you worked with someone with a different perspective/point of view Question 2: • Tell me about a time you managed conflict at work 143 Rush Hour Prompt #1: • The authorities of the Lagos Nigeria airport have decided to issue 2,500 new taxi permits for $1,000 each. These permits authorize a taxi to service arriving passengers. Your client has taxi fleets in different US cities but does not have a presence in Nigeria nor has serviced an airport in the past. She has asked you to determine if she should buy those new permits. If so, how many should she buy? Case Background: (to be given to interviewee) – Company information: Company is a big player in the US market but doesn’t have footprint outside the US – Industry/competition information: Lagos Airport services is very competitive. Nigeria is densely populated with and the airport is the major airport in Nigeria due to high traffic – Business model – makes revenue off transport services. Company takes a 70% cut on revenue from riders 144 Rush Hour Framework Buckets: • MECE Framework for the prompt (high level buckets can be mentioned – details under each bucket are optional) Strategic logic • Does it match our goals - Growth rate of airport services in Lagos • Do we have resources and capabilities to win in this market? ■ Do we have the brand power to float airport services in Nigeria? ■ Do we have expertise in geographic expansion? ■ Does our drivers have a good knowledge of airport transport rules or do we have capacity to train drivers? ■ Do we have required expertise or partners in airport operations Economics of the decision • Potential profit - Potential revenues (R) - Potential cost • Market - Competitive landscape - Consumer preference - Demand availability - Trends • Investment - Investment required - Payback period? - Cost of capital Other considerations • Execution/entrybarriers? - Regulatory barriers outside permit? - Implementation risk - Political risks? - Currency risk? - Macroeconomic risk? - Tax considerations 145 Question #1 • Estimate the daily demand for taxis. Is this demand being met? If not, how many more taxis are needed? (Information below should be provided to candidates) – Airport handles 42 million passengers yearly. There are 5,500 taxis operating in the airport. – On average a taxi takes 60 minutes to drive passenger and return to airport for next pick up. – On average 40% of domestic flights passengers and 80% of international flights passengers use taxis. – 30% of daily demand occurs between 6:00 a.m. and 10:00 a.m., 40% occurs between 6:00 p.m. and 10:00 p.m. – Assume each passenger uses one cab and drivers keep 30% of the fare – On average each taxi requires $8,000 yearly on maintenance. 146 Interviewer guidance on Question #1 Guidance: Analysis: • Assume that passenger volume is equally distributed through the year/week/day. • Assume that 50% of passengers are from domestic flights and 50% international flights. • Assume that the client has capacity (meaning he has cars and drivers available in Lagos Nigeria at $0 investment cost). • Assume all taxis can run during peak hours and that maintenance is a minimal time commitment. • Estimate number of passengers arriving each day: ✓ 42million/12 months = 3.5 million passengers monthly ✓ 3.5 million passengers / 4 weeks = 875,000 passengers weekly ✓ 875,000 passengers / 7 days = 125,000 passengers daily • Estimate passengers that will require taxis: ✓ 62,500 domestic passengers x 40% of domestic use taxis = 25,000 ✓ 62,500 international passengers x 80% of international use taxis = 50,000 ✓ Total passengers demanding taxis daily = 75,000 ✓ 6am – 10am = 22,500 passengers need a taxi (= 75,000 x 30%) ✓ 6pm – 10pm = 30,000 passengers need a taxi (=75,000 x 40%) ✓ Non-peak hours = 22,500 passengers need a taxi (=75,000 x 30%) • Is the demand being met? ✓ From 6 to 10am, each taxi makes 4 trips (average trip takes 60min). If we have 5,500 taxis operating, then capacity serves 22,000 passengers. Excess demand=500 passengers. 250 domestic x 40% = 100 passengers + 250 international x 80% = 200 passengers for a total of 300 passengers needing a taxi / 4 rides per hour = 125 taxis needed to meet excess demand. ✓ From 6 to 10pm, using the same logic capacity meets 22,000 passengers: 5,500 taxis operating thus excess demand = 8,000 passengers (need 2,000 taxis). ✓ During non-peak hours (16 hours) 22,500 passengers will need a taxi. With 5,500 taxis in operation there is capacity to serve 88,000 passengers during that time. In that time period there is excess capacity. • To service demand not being met in the morning and night periods 2,000 taxis are required. • This is a very complex exercise; please work with the candidate through the math 147 Question #2 • Estimate possible revenue. An average passenger pays $200 cab fare via regulated rates – Demand not being met daily: 500 passengers in the morning – + 8,000 passengers in the evening – = 8,500 passengers needing service x $200 = $1,700,000 daily revenue – Yearly Revenue = $571,200,000 • Now that you have the revenue, what do you think are some cost considerations that our client needs to take for taxi operations? – Sample answer: • Fixed cost: Back-end staff cost; General overheads, Permits, Insurance, tech cost • Variable cost: Drivers' salary, Gas, Car repairs, Car maintenance etc. 148 Interviewer guidance on Exhibit #1 Prompt: • Candidates should be encouraged to list cost stream for running the taxi operations • After initial brainstorming, show candidate the exhibit #1 on the next page to compute profit calculation Analysis: • Cost can be calculated by taking XX% of revenue and plugging absolute values. For Gas Prices, ask candidate to divide revenue uniformly across $ quarters to get to period revenue. Calculate: Profit = Revenue – Cost • Outstanding candidates should recognize that cost is needed to estimate profit. The candidate should list the different cost component associated with transport services. Interviewer should prompt if candidate doesn’t list this 149 Exhibit #1 Fixed cost Back-end staff cost 0.5% of revenue Insurance 0.5% of revenue General O/H 1% of revenue Driver salary 30% of revenue Permit $1000 per taxi Variable cost Maintenance $8000 per car per year Gas prices Q1 As below 10% of period revenue Q2 15% of period revenue Q3 20% of period revenue Q4 25% of period revenue Assume revenue is earned linearly over the year 150 Rush Hour Recommendation • Client should buy 2,000 permits based on the potential yearly profit of $270,456,000 from excess demand at the airport. Risks and Next Steps: • Risk: There is no guarantee that the airport will not allow additional permits in the future which could increase the number of taxis at the airport • Risk: Consumers in the Lagos airport may favor local brands hence, boycotting client services • Next steps: deeper environmental / market analysis to check consumer behavior, stress testing assumptions used in valuation (data may not be accurate) 151 Final Remarks Enjoy the casing process. This is very representative of the day-to-day life as a consultant! It’s important to mock case as if it were the real interview. The “day of” often brings additional stress and anxiety. Below are excerpts from students who previously interviewed at firms sharing their experiences and advice for future applicants. • If something “unexpected“ happens (interviewer skips framework, preemptively asks for brainstorm, etc.), don’t panic. Adapt and respond accordingly • Practice market sizing • Identify and remember math shortcuts. Margin shortcuts, weighted average, price elasticity are all fair game • Get clarity and background information. Easier said than done, but do not be afraid to repetitively ask for clarification if it is a novel or niche industry or company 152 Recommended Classes This list comes from 2 nd year students who interned in consulting Class Type Class Name Professor Rationale Accounting Financial Statement Analysis R. Vashishtha Teaches financial health and building pro forma Accounting Valuation & Fundamental Analysis S. Nallareddy Multiple valuation techniques used in practice to value a firm Operations Operations Strategy R. Swinney Great case studies that links how operations relates to strategy Strategy Strategy for Driving Corporate Growth G. Davis Explores build, buy, borrow frameworks Strategy Strategy Implementation J. Figueiredo Former consultant – Works through multiple frameworks 153
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