American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences ISSN: (Print) (Online) Journal homepage: https://www.tandfonline.com/loi/umms20 Stress-Strength Reliability Estimation of a Series System with Cold Standby Redundancy Based on Kumaraswamy Half-Logistic Distribution Thomas Xavier, Joby K. Jose & Subhash C. Bagui To cite this article: Thomas Xavier, Joby K. Jose & Subhash C. Bagui (2023): StressStrength Reliability Estimation of a Series System with Cold Standby Redundancy Based on Kumaraswamy Half-Logistic Distribution, American Journal of Mathematical and Management Sciences, DOI: 10.1080/01966324.2023.2213835 To link to this article: https://doi.org/10.1080/01966324.2023.2213835 Published online: 23 Jun 2023. Submit your article to this journal View related articles View Crossmark data Full Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at https://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=umms20 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES https://doi.org/10.1080/01966324.2023.2213835 Stress-Strength Reliability Estimation of a Series System with Cold Standby Redundancy Based on Kumaraswamy Half-Logistic Distribution Thomas Xaviera , Joby K. Joseb , and Subhash C. Baguic a Theoretical Statistics and Mathematics Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi, India; bDepartment of Statistical Sciences, Kannur University, Kerala, India; cDepartment of Mathematics and Statistics, University of West Florida, Pensacola, FL, USA ABSTRACT This paper deals with study and estimation of stress-strength reliability for a system where strength and stress components are connected in series with cold standby redundancy at system level. It is supposed that the random stress and strength both follow Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution. In this redundant system, we consider that there N subsystems and in each subsystem, there are M statistically independent strength components under the impact of M statistically independent stress components The problem of estimation is solved in two cases. First under the assumption that random stress and strength have common first shape parameter and different second shape parameter and second with the assumption that common shape parameter is known. The stress-strength reliability is estimated using maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimation methods. Also asymptotic and Bayesian intervals for the stressstrength reliability under both the cases are constructed. Monte Carlo simulations will be performed to compare the performance of various methods. Finally a real life data set is analyzed to demonstrate the findings. KEYWORDS AND PHRASES Cold-standby redundancy system; Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution; stress-strength model; type-II progressive censoring 1. Introduction The reliability of a system is defined as the probability that the system will perform its intended function competently given that it operates under stated environmental conditions. Suppose the random stress applied on a certain appliance be represented by Y and the random strength to sustain the stress be represented as X. Thus a measure of reliability of a system is given by R ¼ PrfX > Yg: The main idea was introduced by Birnbaum (1956) and developed by Birnbaum and McCarty (1958). The stress-strength reliability for several distributions like exponential, normal, gamma, Weibull, Burr, generalized exponential, generalized Weibull, generalized logistic and many more have been developed in the statistical literature by many authors, which shows the importance of such problems. Kotz et al. (2003) provides an excellent detailed explanation of the development of the stress-strength models up to 2003. Some of the CONTACT Thomas Xavier thomasmxavier@gmail.com Statistical Institute, Delhi 110016, India. ß 2023 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC Theoretical Statistics and Mathematics Unit, Indian 2 T. XAVIER ET AL. applications of the stress-strength model are discussed in Pakdaman et al. (2019). Recently Jose et al., (2019) estimated the stress-strength reliability for Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution, Xavier and Jose (2021) studied stress-strength reliability for a generalization of the half-logistic distribution. A lot of attention has also been given to develop multicomponent stress-strength reliability. Consider a system having k statistically independent and identically distributed strength components, subject to a common stress. Bhattacharyya and Johnson (1974) first studied this multicomponent stress-strength system which functions when sð1 s kÞ or more components simultaneously survive. The following system corresponds to series and parallel when s ¼ k and s ¼ 1 respectively. Xavier and Jose (2021) studied the multicomponent stress-strength reliability based on power transformed half-logistic model. Standby redundancy plays an important role in inflating the system reliability, it was first studied by Sriwastav and Kakati (1981). The use of such systems is that when one unit in the system operates the other is kept at standby and once the operating system fails, the standby unit starts working. Clearly this gives much higher reliability to the system which makes it extensively adopted in many applications. For example, in military satellite, standby redundancy system can improve the lifetime of the satellite. Standby redundancy can be applied at component or system levels. The effectiveness of adding cold standby redundancy to a coherent system at system and component levels is studied by Eryilmaz (2017). The stress–strength reliability of a standby redundancy system for both stress and strength are independent and follow different probability distributions - exponential, gamma and Lindley were studied by Khan and Jan (2014). Ke et al., (2007) presented the reliability and sensitivity analysis of a system with M primary units, W warm standby units, and R unreliable service stations where warm standby units switching to the primary state might fail. Siju and Kumar (2017) studied the estimation of stress-strength reliability of a parallel system with active, warm and cold standby components. Liu et al. (2018) studied the reliability estimation of a N M-cold-standby redundancy system in a multicomponent stress–strength model with generalized half-logistic distribution. C€ uran and Kizilaslan (2021a) studied statistical inference of the stress-strength reliability of parallel system with cold standby redundancy at system and component levels. C€ uran and Kizilaslan (2021b) studied inference of the stress-strength reliability and mean remaining strength of series system with cold standby redundancy at system and component levels. Clearly, the stress-strength reliability estimation for series or parallel systems with cold standby redundancy setup has not been paid much attention in the literature. Thus, this paper aims to study the stress-strength reliability estimation of a N M cold-standby redundancy system in a series stress-strength model based on Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. In section 2, we give the motivation and the N M cold-standby redundancy system is described; also the expression for stress-strength reliability is obtained. In section 3, we study inference of the reliability parameters with the parameter a is unknown. In section 4, we study inference of the reliability parameters with the parameter a is known. In section 5, the results of small sample comparisons derived from simulations AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES 3 are given, and the process is illustrated using a real life example. Finally the conclusion are given in section 6. 2. Reliability of the system 2.1. Motivation Liu et al., (2018) studied the estimation of reliability of a multicomponent system, named N-M-cold-standby redundancy system, based on progressive Type-II censoring sample. Motivated by that idea, we consider a series system for both the strength and stress components. Thus in this model each N subsystem, there are M statistically independent strength and stress components. This will also help us to consider the model where we need to compare two components, where each of them have a series formation. For example suppose we need to study the efficiency of battery system connected in series for two different companies, then the following model can be used given that they follow the distribution assumption. Moreover in this study we assume that the system components come from Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution. Thus this paper has novelty because of problem structure and component distributions. 2.2. The system and its reliability A random variable Z is said to follow a Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution if the cumulative distribution function (CDF) and the probability density function (PDF) respectively are ( a )h 1 ez FðzÞ ¼ 1 1 (1) 1 þ ez a1 " a #h1 2ez 1 ez 1 ez f ðzÞ ¼ ah 1 ; 0z<1 (2) 1 þ ez ð1 þ ez Þ2 1 þ ez and f ðzÞ ¼ 0 elsewhere. Here h > 0 and a > 0 are shape parameters. When h ¼ 1 and a ¼ 1 it reduces to standard half-logistic distribution. In real life engineering practice, standby redundancy system plays an important role in enhancing the reliability of a product. Such system may consist of some same subsystems having its won structure, such as, series structure, parallel structure or series-parallel hybrid structure. Our focus is a standby redundancy system with certain number of same subsystems with series structure. Consider there are N subsystems each consisting of M components in series, of which one is working under impact of stresses and the remaining N 1 subsystems are standby. Thus we have a N M cold-standby redundancy system. As a cold standby redundancy system is considered, the standbys will only be called upon when the subsystem under the impact of stress fails. Let Zi1 , Zi2 , :::, ZiM , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N be a set of M independent random variables, repre0 senting the strengths of M components in the ith subsystem. Let Zi10 , Zi20 , :::, ZiM , i¼ 1, 2, :::, N be another set of M independent random variables, representing the stress of M components in the ith subsystem. Define Xi ¼ minfZi1 , Zi2 , :::, ZiM g and Yi ¼ 4 T. XAVIER ET AL. 0 minfZi10 , Zi20 , :::, ZiM g i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: Thus the subsystems have a series structure, X1 , X2 , :::, XN be N independent random variables representing the strength of the subsystems and let Y1 , Y2 , :::, YN be another N random variables representing stresses on the subsystems. Then, the system reliability is given by RNM ¼ Rð1Þ þ Rð2Þ þ ::: þ RðNÞ (3) RðiÞ ¼ PrfX1 < Y1 , :::, Xi1 < Yi1 , Xi > Yi g, i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N (4) where The following model can be used to study the reliability of a system under stressstrength setup and would also be used to compare two independent models. Assume 0 that Zi1 , Zi2 , :::, ZiM and Zi10 , Zi20 , :::, ZiM , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N are independently distributed as Kumaraswamy half-logistic (KHL) distribution with same parameter a and different parameters hi1 , hi2 , :::, hiM , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N and bi1 , bi2 , :::, biN respectively. Then the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of Zij and Zij0 , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N, j ¼ 1, 2, :::, M is ( a )hij 1 exij ; 0 zij < 1, a, hij > 0 FZij ðzij Þ ¼ 1 1 1 þ exij 8 !a 9bij < = zij0 1e ; 0 yi < 1, a, bij > 0 FZ0 0 ðzij0 Þ ¼ 1 1 0 : ij 1 þ ezij ; The CDF for Xi , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N is given by HXi ðxi Þ ¼ 1 PrfXi > xi g ¼ 1 PrfminfZi1 , Zi2 , :::, ZiM g > xi g ( a )hi YM 1 exi ¼ 1 j¼1 ½1 Fðxi Þ ¼ 1 1 ; 0 xi < 1, a, hi > 0 1 þ exi P where hi ¼ M j¼1 hij , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: Thus Xi , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N follow KHL distribution with common parameter a and different parameters h1 , h2 , :::, hN respectively. Similarly, the CDF for Yi , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N is given by GYi ðyi Þ ¼ 1 PrfYi > yi g ¼ 1 PrfminfZ 0 i1 , Z0 i2 , :::, Z0 iM g > yi g ( )bi yi a YM 1 e ¼ 1 j¼1 1 F 0 ðyi Þ ¼ 1 1 ; 0 xi < 1, a, bi > 0 1 þ eyi where bi ¼ M X bij , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: Thus Yi , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N follow KHL distribution with j¼1 common parameter a and different parameters b1 , b2 , :::, bN respectively. The density function of Yi , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N is given by a1 " a #bi 1 2eyi 1 eyi 1 eyi gYi ðyi Þ ¼ abi 1 1 þ eyi ð1 þ eyi Þ2 1 þ eyi and gðyi Þ ¼ 0, elsewhere. (5) AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES Then we can find the reliability of each subsystem RðiÞ by writing (4) as ð 1 ð 1 HX1 ðy1 ÞgY1 ðy1 Þdy1 ::: HXi1 ðyi1 ÞgYi1 ðyi1 Þdyi1 RðiÞ ¼ ð0 1 0 ð1 HXi ðyi ÞÞgYi ðyi Þdy1 0 ¼ 5 (6) i1 Y hj bi hi þ bi j¼1 hj þ bj Hence, reliability of the system, (3) can be rewritten as RNM ¼ N i1 X hj b1 bi Y þ h1 þ b1 i¼2 hi þ bi j¼1 hj þ bj (7) To study the effect of standby components on stress-strength reliability, consider the two plots given in Figure 1. A contour plot is also drawn. Both the line and contour plot suggest that adding a standby component increases the system reliability, as expected. In the contour plot we can see that when a redundant system is added, that is, when N is increased from 1 to 2, the system reliability increases. In Figure 1, the first plot it can be observed that for smaller values of b1 (given on the x-axis), the system reliability with cold standby redundancy with one strength component (M ¼ 1) is higher vastly than a system which has components connected in series (for instance, say M ¼ 10). In other words, when Y or the stress random variable is stochastically larger than X or the strength random variable, then it is preferable to have a cold standby redundancy system with one strength component. From the second plot it can be observed that for large values of h1 , the system reliability with cold standby redundancy is extremely higher for components connected in series than a single strength component. Therefore, when Y or the stress random variable is stochastically smaller than X or the strength random variable, then it is preferable to have a cold standby redundancy system with strength components connected in series (Figure 2). 3. Inference on system reliability with unknown common parameter a In this section, the maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimate of the system reliability is obtained when the common parameters a is unknown. The Bayesian estimates are obtained under squared error loss function. 3.1. Maximum likelihood estimate In this subsection, the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the system reliability is obtained. Let Xi and Yi follow KHLða, hi Þ and KHLða, bi Þ, i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N respectively. Now our goal is to achieve the MLE of RNM under type-II progressive censoring (PC) scheme. As RNM is a function of the unknown parameters h1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN and a, therefore first the MLE of the parameters is obtained. Let xiji and yili , ji ¼ 1, 2, :::, ni , li ¼ 1, 2, :::, mi , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N are type-II PC random samples with schemes 6 T. XAVIER ET AL. Figure 1. Plot of values for stress-strength reliability, RNM : Figure 2. Contour plot of values for stress-strength reliability, RNM : fNi , ni , Di1 , :::, Dini g and fMi , mi , Si1 , :::, Sini g respectively. At the time of the first failure, Di1 of ni 1 and Si1 of mi 1 surviving units are randomly removed, at the time of second failure, Di2 of ni 2 Di1 and Si2 of m i 2 Si1 surviving units are removed and so on. Under these assumptions, the likelihood function of the parameters can be written as Lðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN , aÞ N Y ¼ gXi1 , :::, Xini ðxi1 , :::, xini Þ 1 FXi1 , :::, Xini ðxi1 , :::, xini Þ Di i¼1 hYi1 , :::Yimi ðyi1 , :::, yimi Þ 1 HYi1 , :::Yimi ðyi1 , :::, yimi Þ Si a1 Y a hi ð1þDiji Þ1 ni ni N Y Y 1 exiji 1 exiji ni ðahi Þ 1 / 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji i¼1 ji ¼1 ji ¼1 a mi a bi ð1þSili Þ1 mi Y 1 eyili Y 1 eyili mi 1 ðabi Þ 1 þ eyili l ¼1 1 þ eyili l ¼1 i i (8) (9) AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES 7 Then the log likelihood function, l ¼ ln L (say) is given by l X X ni mi N X 1 exiji 1 eyili / ðni þ mi Þ ln a þ ni ln hi þ mi ln bi þ a þ 1 þ exiji 1 þ eyili i¼1 ji ¼1 li ¼1 ni mi X X 1 exiji a 1 eyili a þ bi ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 þhi ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 1 þ exiji 1 þ eyili ji ¼1 li ¼1 a a ni mi X X 1 exiji 1 eyili ln 1 ln 1 1 þ exiji 1 þ eyili ji ¼1 l ¼1 i (10) ^ , :::, b ^ and ^a , the following equation should be Consequently to derive ^h 1 , :::, ^h N , b 1 N solved. " a # ni @l ni X 1 exiji ¼ þ ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 (11) @hi hi ji ¼1 1 þ exiji @l @bi " a # mi mi X 1 eyili ¼ þ ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 bi l ¼1 1 þ eyili (12) i ni mi X @l ni þ mi X 1 exiji 1 eyili ¼ þ þ @a a 1 þ exiji 1 þ eyili ji ¼1 l ¼1 i a " a #1 Xni 1 exiji 1 exiji 1 exiji 1 ð1 þ Diji Þ ln hi ji ¼1 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji a " a #1 mi X 1 eyili 1 eyili 1 eyili 1 bi ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 þ eyili 1 þ eyili 1 þ eyili li ¼1 a " a #1 ni X 1 exiji 1 exiji 1 exiji 1 þ ln 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji ji ¼1 a " a #1 mi X 1 eyili 1 eyili 1 eyili 1 þ ln 1 þ eyili 1 þ eyili 1 þ eyili l ¼1 i (13) 8 T. XAVIER ET AL. Using (11) and (12), we obtain 0 1 " # 1 ni xiji a X 1 e A h^i ðaÞ ¼ ni @ ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 1 þ exiji ji ¼1 0 1 " # 1 mi yili a X 1 e A b^i ðaÞ ¼ mi @ ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 1 þ eyili l ¼1 i To derive ^ a , we solve (13) using numerical methods such as Newton-Raphson method. After obtaining the MLEs of h1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN and a, we use the invariance property to obtain the MLE of RNM : 3.2. Interval estimation The asymptotic confidence interval can be obtained by deriving the asymptotic distribution of RNM : For that we first obtain asymptotic distributions of h1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN and a: Consider the Fisher information matrix of ðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN , aÞ given by 2 3 I1, 1 I1, 2Nþ1 6 7 .. .. Iðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN , aÞ ¼ 4 ... 5 . . I2Nþ1, 2Nþ1 3 ! 2 @ l @ l 7 6 E 2 7 6 @h @a @h 1 7 6 1 7 6 .. .. .. ¼ 6 7 6 . . . 7 7 6 2 2 @ l @ l 5 4 E E @a@h1 @a2 I2Nþ1, 1 2 2 where ! ni @2l mi ¼ 2,E ¼ 2 @bi hi bi ! ! ! 2 2 @ l @ l @2l E ¼E ¼0 ¼E @hi @bj @hi @hj @bi @bj 2 a " a #1 ni X @ l 1 exiji 1 exiji 1 exiji E ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 ¼ @hi @a 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji 1 þ exiji ji ¼1 " ! a a #1 mi X @2l 1 eyili 1 eyili 1 eyili E ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 ¼ @bi @a 1 þ eyili 1 þ eyili 1 þ eyili l ¼1 @2l E @h2i ! i for i 6¼ j, i ¼ 1, :::, N and j ¼ 1, :::, N: Then as ni ! 1 and mi ! 1, i ¼ 1, :::, N we have ½ðh^1 h1 Þ, :::, ðh^N hN Þ, ðb^1 bN Þ, :::, ðb^N bN Þ, ð^a aÞT ! ANðO, I 1 ðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN , aÞÞ where AN denotes asymptotic normal distribution. Now to find the asymptotic distribution of RNM , consider AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES @RNM @hk ¼ N X @RðiÞ i¼k ¼ @RNM @bk ¼ @RNM @a @hk k1 N i1 X Y hj hj bk Y bi bk þ 2 2 h þ b h þ b h þ bj ðhk þ bk Þ j¼1 j j i ðhk þ bk Þ j6¼k j i¼kþ1 i N X @RðiÞ i¼k ¼ 9 @bk k1 N i1 X Y Y hj hj hk bi hk 2 2 h þ b h þ b h þ bj ðhk þ bk Þ j¼1 j j i ðhk þ bk Þ j6¼k j i¼kþ1 i ¼0 for k ¼ 1, :::, N: d Then the asymptotic distribution of Rd is given by ðR RNM Þ NM NM ANð0, GT I 1 GÞ, where GT ¼ @RNM @RNM @RNM @RNM @RNM @h1 , :::, @hN , @b1 , :::, @bN , @a : Thus an approximate 100ð1 aÞ% confidence interval for RNM is given by ^ NM Kc R 2 qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ^ ^ NM Þ ^ ^ ðR NM Þ, R NM þ K2c r ^ ðR r ^ NM Þ ¼ GT I 1 G and Kc is the upper c th quantile of the standard normal ^ ðR where r 2 2 distribution. 3.3. Bayesian estimation The aim of this section is to obtain the Bayesian estimate of R. For that consider that the unknown parameters a, hi and bi follow gamma priors, that is, a Cða, bÞ, hi Cðai1 , bi1 Þ and bi Cðai2 , bi2 Þ where i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: Using the observed censored samples, the joint posterior density function can be given by pðhi , bi , ajdataÞ / Lðdatajhi , bi , aÞpi1 ðhi Þpi2 ðbi Þp3 ðaÞ where pi1 ðhi Þ / hiai1 1 ebi1 hi pi1 ðbi Þ / biai2 1 ebi2 bi pi1 ðaÞ / aa1 eba (14) 10 T. XAVIER ET AL. After simplifying (14) we can have the posterior densities of hi , bi and a as 8 0 19 " # = ni < xiji a X 1 e A ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 gi1 ðhi ja, dataÞ / hiai1 þni 1 exp hi @bi1 : ; 1 þ exiji ji ¼1 0 1 " # a ni X 1 exiji @ A ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 ) hi ja, data C ai1 þ ni , bi1 xiji 1 þ e j ¼1 8i 0 19 " # = mi < yili a X 1e A ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 gi2 ðbi ja, dataÞ / biai2 þmi 1 exp bi @bi2 : ; 1 þ eyili li ¼1 0 1 " # a mi X 1 eyili @ A ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 ) bi ja, data C ai2 þ ni , bi2 yili 1 þ e l ¼1 i a ni a hi ð1þDiji Þ ni Y 1 exiji Y 1 exiji 1 1 þ exiji ji ¼1 1 þ exiji i¼1 ji ¼1 mi mi Y 1 eyili a Y 1 eyili a bi ð1þSili Þ a1 ba mi 1 a e a 1 þ eyili l ¼1 1 þ eyili l ¼1 gðajhi , bi , dataÞ / N Y i ani i Here it can be observed that some well-known distribution cannot be applied to describe the posterior density of a, thus we use Metropolis-Hastings method with the proposal distribution as normal. The algorithm can be suggested as follows in six steps. Step 1: Set initial values ðh0i , b0i , a0 Þ and set p ¼ 1: p1 p1 Step 2: Generate ap from gðajhi , bi , dataÞ using the Metropolis-Hastings method p1 with proposal density as Nða , 1Þ: ap1 Pni x p 1e iji Step 3: Generate hi from C ai1 þ ni , bi1 ji ¼1 ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 1þexiji where i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: ap1 y Pmi p 1e ili Step 4: Generate bi from C ai2 þ ni , bi2 li ¼1 ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 1þeyili where i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: P bi Qi1 hj 1 Step 5: Compute RNM ¼ h1bþb þ Ni¼2 hi þb j¼1 hj þbj and set p ¼ p þ 1: 1 i Step 6: Repeat steps 2-5 for T times. Now the first B observations will be removed from the T observations, to reduce the effect of starting distribution or which is called the burn-in period. Now out of the remaining t B observations, every tenth sample is taken so as to break the dependance among observations. Also we can have a 100ð1 cÞ% HPD credible interval of RNM using the method of Chen and Shao (1999). 4. Inference on system reliability with known common parameter a In this section, the maximum likelihood estimate and Bayesian estimate of the system reliability is obtained when the common parameter a is known. The Bayesian estimates are obtained under squared error loss function. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES 11 4.1. Maximum likelihood estimate In this subsection, the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) of the system reliability is obtained. Let Zi and Yi follow KHLða, hi Þ and KHLða, bi Þ, i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N respectively. Now our goal is to achieve the maximum likelihood estimate of RNM : Assume that the common shape parameter a is known. Then, 0 1 " # 1 ni xiji a X 1 e A h^i ¼ ni @ ð1 þ Diji Þ ln 1 xiji 1 þ e ji ¼1 0 1 " # 1 mi yili a X 1 e A b^i ¼ mi @ ð1 þ Sili Þ ln 1 yili 1 þ e l ¼1 i 4.2. Interval estimation The asymptotic confidence interval can be obtained by deriving the asymptotic distribution of RNM : For that we first obtain asymptotic distributions of h1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, and bN : Consider the Fisher information matrix of ðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN Þ given by 3 2 ! 2 2 @ l @ l 7 6 E 2 7 6 @h @h @h 1 N 7 6 1 7 6 .. .. .. 7 Iðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN Þ ¼ 6 6 . . . ! !7 7 6 6 @2l @2l 7 5 4E E @b1 @h1 @b2N where @2l E @h2i ! @2l E @hi @bj ! ! @2l mi E ¼ 2 2 @bi bi ! ! @2l @2l ¼E ¼0 ¼E @hi @hj @bi @bj ni ¼ 2, hi for i 6¼ j, i ¼ 1, :::, N and j ¼ 1, :::, N: Then as ni ! 1 and mi ! 1, i ¼ 1, :::, N we have ½ðh^1 h1 Þ, :::, ðh^N hN Þ, ðb^1 bN Þ, :::, ðb^N bN ÞT ! ANðO, I 1 ðh1 , :::, hN , b1 , :::, bN ÞÞ where AN denotes asymptotic ^ NM RNM Þ ANð0, GT I 1 GÞ, where GT ¼ normal distribution. Thus ðR @RNM @RNM @RNM @RNM @h1 , :::, @hN , @b1 , :::, @bN : And an approximate 100ð1 aÞ% confidence interval for RNM is given by qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi qffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ^ ^ NM Þ ^ ^ ^ ðR NM Þ, R NM þ Kc r ^ ðR R NM Kc r 2 2 ^ NM Þ ¼ GT I 1 G and Kc is the upper c th quantile of the standard normal ^ ðR where r 2 2 distribution. 12 T. XAVIER ET AL. 4.3. Bayesian estimation The aim of this section is to obtain the Bayesian estimate of RNM : For that consider that the unknown parameters hi and bi follow gamma priors, that is, hi Cðai1 , bi1 Þ and bi Cðai2 , bi2 Þ where i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: Using the observed censored samples, the joint posterior density function can be given by pðhi , bi ja, dataÞ / Lðdatajhi , bi , aÞpi1 ðhi Þpi2 ðbi Þ (15) where pi1 ðhi Þ / hiai1 1 ebi1 hi pi1 ðbi Þ / biai2 1 ebi2 bi After simplifying (15) we can have the posterior densities of hi , bi and a as 8 0 19 " # = ni < xiji a X 1 e A gi1 ðhi ja, dataÞ / hiai1 þni 1 exp hi @bi1 ln 1 : ; 1 þ exiji ji ¼1 0 1 " # a ni X 1 exiji @ A ln 1 ) hi ja, data C ai1 þ ni , bi1 xiji 1 þ e j ¼1 8i 0 19 " # = mi < yili a X 1e A ln 1 gi2 ðbi ja, dataÞ / biai2 þmi 1 exp bi @bi2 : ; 1 þ eyili li ¼1 0 1 " # a mi X 1 eyili @ A ln 1 ) bi ja, data C ai2 þ ni , bi2 yili 1 þ e l ¼1 i Pni Consider Wi ¼ ji ¼1 ln 1 x 1e iji x 1þe iji a and Vi ¼ Pmi li ¼1 ln 1 y 1e ili y 1þe ili a : Then, the Bayesian estimate of RNM can be obtained by following the idea of Liu et al., (2018) as ð1 ð1 ^ NM ¼ R ::: RNM g11 ðh1 jX11 , :::, X1n1 Þg12 ðb1 jY11 , :::, Y1n1 Þ::: 0 0 gN1 ðhN jXN1 , :::, XNnN ÞgN1 ðbN jYN1 , :::, YNmN Þ dh1 :::dbN N i1 X X ¼ /1 þ /i xj i¼2 j¼1 where /i and ðbi1 Wi Þai1 þni ðbi2 Vi Þai2 þmi i1 þ ni ÞCðai2 þ mi Þ ð 1 ðCða 1 bi hiai1 þni 1 eðbi1 Wi Þhi biai2 þmi 1 eðbi2 Vi Þbi dhi dbi 0 0 hi þ bi ¼ AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES xi 13 ðbi1 Wi Þai1 þni ðbi2 Vi Þai2 þmi i1 þ ni ÞCðai2 þ mi Þ ð 1 ðCða 1 hi hai i1 þni 1 eðbi1 Wi Þhi biai2 þmi 1 eðbi2 Vi Þbi dhi dbi h þ b i 0 0 i ¼ hi Let ui ¼ hi þ bi and ti ¼ hi þb , then i ðbi1 Wi Þai1 þni ðbi2 Vi Þai2 þmi /i ¼ Cðai1 þ ni ÞCðai2 þ mi Þ ð1 ð1 b V ðb W Þu 1 1b i2Wi ti i1 i dui dti ti ui ½ui ð1 ti Þai1 þni 1 ðui ti Þai2 þmi 1 e i1 i i 0 0 ð 1 ai2 þmi ai2 þmi 1 ti ð1 ti Þai1 þni 1 Vi h i dti ¼ bbi1i2W i Bðai1 þ ni , ai2 þ mi Þ 0 1 1 bi2 Vi t q i bi1 Wi 8 > a þ m b V i2 i i2 i > > ¼1 , < q bi1 Wi ¼ ai2 þmi ai2 þ mi bi2 Vi bi2 Vi > bi2 Vi > , F1 ai2 þ mi , q; q þ 1; 1 <1 > : bi1 Wi q 2 bi1 Wi bi1 Wi where q ¼ ai1 þ ni þ ai2 þ mi : Similarly, xi ¼ bi1 Wi bi2 Vi ai1 þni ð 1 ai1 þni 1 t ð1 ti Þai2 þmi 1 hi i dti Bðai1 þ ni , ai2 þ mi Þ 0 1 1 bi1 Wi t q i ¼ bi2 Vi 8 > ai1 þ ni bi2 Vi > > ¼1 , < q bi1 Wi a þn bi1 Wi > bi1 Wi i1 i ai1 þ ni > , F1 ai1 þ ni , q; q þ 1; 1 > : bi2 Vi q 2 bi2 Vi bi1 Wi <1 bi2 Vi where v Fw ðzÞ is the generalized hypergeometric function. The generalized hypergeometric function v Fw ðzÞ is defined as v Fw ða1 , :::, av ; b1 , :::, bw ; zÞ ¼ 1 X ða1 Þ :::ðav Þ zk k k ðb1 Þk :::ðbw Þk k! k¼0 where ai and bj with bj 6¼ 0, 1, 2, :::; i ¼ 1, 2, :::, v; j ¼ 1, 2, :::, w, : The convergence conditions and other details are available from books on special functions, see for example Mathai and Haubould (2008). 5. Simulation study and data analysis In this section, simulation study is considered to show the performance of the MLE and Bayes estimates. Also the application of the proposed model is illustrated by analyzing a real life dataset. 14 T. XAVIER ET AL. 5.1. Simulation study Here we illustrate the performance of maximum likelihood and Bayesian estimates of the stress-strength reliability considering the 1-2- (R12 ) and 2-2-cold-standby (R22 ) redundancy systems. We will look into the effect of redundant systems on the stressstrength reliability using Monte Carlo Simulations. The performance of the point estimators is measured in terms of biases and mean square errors (MSEs) and the performance of interval estimates is made in terms of confidence lengths (CL) or confidence regions (CR). For all simulation results we will fix the value of a ¼ 1:5: Random samples of sizes n ¼ m ¼ 10, 20, 30 and 50 with 1000 replications are considered Note that for computing the values of R22 , h1 and b1 are taken to be same as that while computing R12 : Also because of the flexibility of the component structure, the results in P Tables 1 and 2 can be extended to larger values of M given that hi ¼ M j¼1 hij PM and bi ¼ j¼1 bij , i ¼ 1, 2, :::, N: From Table 1 it can be observed that when there is one cold standby redundant component, the system reliability is higher compared to no redundant components. Also it can be observed that the estimates of the stress-strength reliability and closer to the population value and moreover with increase in the sample size, the corresponding MSEs and the CLs decrease in magnitude which suggest the consistent property of the estimators. To illustrate the performance of the Bayesian estimates, we assume all hyperparameters as 0.0001, from the suggestions of Congdon (2001); thus obtaining Bayesian estimates under non-informative priors. As the posterior density of a is of complex form, we use Metropolis-Hastings algorithm to generate samples, with normal distribution as the proposal density. A total of 20,000 samples are generated; out of which first 10,000 samples are removed out to reduce the effect of starting distribution, which is called the burn-in period. Then, out of the remaining 10,000 samples, every tenth sample is taken so as to break the dependence among the samples; which at the end leaves us with 1000 samples. The rest of the parameters can be generated from their respective gamma conditional posterior densities. It can be observed that the estimates are close to the population value and they are consistent. From Table 2 it can be observed that when there is one cold standby redundant component, the system reliability is higher compared to no redundant components. Also it can be observed that with increase in the sample size, the corresponding MSEs and the CRs decrease in magnitude. The MLEs are observed to perform better than the Bayesian estimates under non-informative priors for the small samples. 5.2. Application In this section, a real life dataset discussed by Bilschke and Murthy (2000) is considered. The data set (Table 2.11, page 48) represents the force for an electronic connector and consists of a sample of 30 leads. In a medical application, it is necessary to be able to insert and withdraw leads to a connector with a minimum amount of force. For each lead, force for insertion and withdrawal was recorded on each of two trials. We will consider the minimum of two trials, thus we have a R12 setup and hence X be the 0.3636 0.5000 0.7273 0.9091 (15,2) (7,4) (4) (1.5,4) (0.5,5) R12 0.1176 ðh1 , b1 Þ ðn, mÞ (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) 0.1144 0.1145 0.1161 0.1162 0.3633 0.3641 0.3649 0.3612 0.5014 0.4996 0.5011 0.4986 0.7331 0.7329 0.7305 0.7285 0.9128 0.9125 0.9117 0.9103 ^R 12 MSE 0.0036 0.0017 0.0010 0.0007 0.0134 0.0061 0.0040 0.0023 0.0145 0.0070 0.0044 0.0026 0.0102 0.0047 0.0032 0.0016 0.0022 0.0010 0.0007 0.0004 Bias 0.0032 0.0031 0.0016 0.0014 0.0003 0.0005 0.0012 0.0024 0.0014 0.0004 0.0011 0.0014 0.0058 0.0056 0.0032 0.0012 0.0037 0.0034 0.0026 0.0012 Table 1. Bias, MSE and CL for MLE of R12 and R22 : CL 0.2127 0.1540 0.1278 0.0994 0.3969 0.2873 0.2364 0.1834 0.4204 0.3039 0.2500 0.1946 0.3484 0.2522 0.2081 0.1627 0.1705 0.1231 0.1016 0.0800 (5,5) (10,5) (15,5) (20,5) (20,2) ðh2 , b2 Þ R22 0.9545 0.8182 0.6250 0.4909 0.1979 ^R 22 0.1877 0.1916 0.1957 0.1950 0.4831 0.4847 0.4877 0.4883 0.6171 0.6211 0.6210 0.6224 0.8179 0.8220 0.8177 0.8191 0.9567 0.9563 0.9556 0.9549 Bias 0.0101 0.0062 0.0021 0.0028 0.0078 0.0062 0.0032 0.0026 0.0079 0.0039 0.0040 0.0026 0.0003 0.0039 0.0004 0.0010 0.0021 0.0017 0.0011 0.0004 MSE 0.0047 0.0023 0.0015 0.0009 0.0113 0.0055 0.0034 0.0020 0.0101 0.0048 0.0034 0.0018 0.0051 0.0023 0.0016 0.0009 0.0007 0.0003 0.0002 0.0001 CL 0.1769 0.1229 0.1012 0.0774 0.3527 0.2522 0.2072 0.1611 0.3534 0.2544 0.2089 0.1626 0.2435 0.1734 0.1449 0.1122 0.0712 0.0518 0.0430 0.0340 AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES 15 ðn, mÞ (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) (10,10) (20,20) (30,30) (50,50) R12 0.1176 0.3636 0.5000 0.7273 0.9091 ðh1 , b1 Þ (15,2) (7,4) (4,4) (1.5,4) (0.5,5) ^R 12 0.0825 0.1241 0.1028 0.1294 0.4234 0.4238 0.3724 0.3572 0.5404 0.4608 0.5413 0.5392 0.7424 0.7490 0.7360 0.7458 0.8710 0.9630 0.8659 0.9521 Bias 0.0351 0.0065 0.0148 0.0118 0.0598 0.0601 0.0088 0.0064 0.0404 0.0392 0.0413 0.0392 0.0152 0.0217 0.0087 0.0185 0.0381 0.0539 0.0432 0.0430 MSE 0.0032 0.0019 0.0010 0.0008 0.0145 0.0100 0.0038 0.0022 0.0138 0.0073 0.0057 0.0040 0.0079 0.0043 0.0027 0.0019 0.0047 0.0031 0.0029 0.0020 Table 2. Bias, MSE and CR for Bayesian estimates of R12 and R22 : CR 0.1687 0.1671 0.1090 0.0999 0.4057 0.3136 0.2488 0.1853 0.4240 0.2927 0.2363 0.1987 0.3336 0.2394 0.1912 0.1505 0.2197 0.1597 0.1340 0.0865 (5,5) (10,5) (15,5) (20,5) ðh2 , b2 Þ (20,2) 0.9545 0.8182 0.6250 0.4909 R22 0.1979 ^R 22 0.1466 0.1969 0.1833 0.1990 0.5429 0.5014 0.4747 0.4893 0.6000 0.5746 0.6344 0.6304 0.7960 0.8083 0.8048 0.8081 0.9218 0.9786 0.9431 0.9743 Bias 0.0513 0.0009 0.0145 0.0011 0.0520 0.0105 0.0162 0.0016 0.0250 0.0503 0.0094 0.0054 0.0222 0.0098 0.0134 0.0100 0.0328 0.0240 0.0114 0.0197 MSE 0.0066 0.0029 0.0017 0.0010 0.0123 0.0057 0.0037 0.0020 0.0100 0.0072 0.0030 0.0019 0.0055 0.0024 0.0017 0.0010 0.0024 0.0007 0.0004 0.0003 CR 0.2600 0.2102 0.1501 0.1229 0.3800 0.2903 0.2283 0.1807 0.3911 0.2623 0.2061 0.1700 0.2716 0.1859 0.1523 0.1172 0.1437 0.1362 0.0638 0.0364 16 T. XAVIER ET AL. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES 17 Table 3. Goodness of fit for data set 1. Data set X Y a 9.5 9.5 h 190.1 b 990 K-S Statistic 0.1045 0.1458 p-value 0.8985 0.5464 Figure 3. Histogram and fitted pdf for dataset 1. Figure 4. Survival plot for dataset. force for insertion and Y be the force for withdrawal. Thus the data values are 1.35, 1.02, 1.45, 0.935, 1.315, 1.455, 1.415, 1.42, 0.985, 1.335, 0.95, 1.225, 1.355, 1.53, 1.39, 1.16, 1.22, 1.405, 1.35, 0.98, 1.225, 1.135, 1.33, 1.2, 1.11, 1.145, 1.045, 1.05, 0.78 and 1.66 for X and 1.13, 1, 0.93, 0.76, 0.985, 0.835, 0.995, 1.115, 0.92, 1.1, 0.875, 0.835, 0.94, 1.265, 1.035, 1.085, 1.005, 0.995, 1.1, 0.985, 0.985, 1.055, 1.07, 0.94, 1, 0.985, 1.22, 0.89, 0.85 and 1.3 for Y. First we check whether the KHL distribution fits X and Y. The Table 3 gives the MLEs of the unknown parameters for X and Y. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov (K-S) test statistic and the corresponding p-values are also given which suggests that one cannot reject the hypothesis that the data are coming from KHL distribution. The histogram with fitted lines for X and Y is given in Figure 3 and the non-parametric survival lines and the corresponding fit is given in Figure 4. 18 T. XAVIER ET AL. Now we consider a 1-2-cold-standby redundancy system, and obtain the probability, R12 : The ML estimate of R12 is obtained as 0.8389 with 95% ACI as (0.7587, 0.9191). The Bayes estimate of R12 under non-informative prior is obtained as 0.8443 with 95% HPDCI as (0.7554, 0.9090). For illustration purpose of Bayes estimate under informative prior, we consider the following values for the hyperparameters; a ¼ 3, b ¼ 3, a1 ¼ 6, b1 ¼ 2, a2 ¼ 30, b2 ¼ 8: The Bayes estimate of R12 is obtained as 0.8519 with 95% HPDCI as (0.7934, 0.8984). Now we assume that a is known and set it to a ¼ 9:5: Then the estimates of h and b are 188.5 and 986.3 respectively. The KS-statistic for X is obtained as 0.1034 and the pvalue as 0.9053 whereas the KS-statistic for Y is obtained as 0.1444 and the p-value as 0.5584. The ML estimate of R12 is obtained as 0.8395 with 95% ACI as (0.7714, 0.9077). The Bayes estimate of R12 under non-informative prior is obtained as 0.8371 with 95% HPDCI as (0.7514, 0.8990). The Bayes estimate under the informative prior a1 ¼ 6, b1 ¼ 2, a2 ¼ 30, b2 ¼ 8 of R12 is obtained as 0.8607 with 95% HPDCI as (0.7934, 0.8984). 6. Conclusions In this paper, we have considered a series system of M components, named as N M cold standby redundancy system. We consider statistically independent and non-identically distributed M strength components, which are exposed to statistically independent and non-identically distributed M different random stresses. Both the strength and stress variables are assumed to follow Kumaraswamy half-logistic distribution. The following setup can be used to obtain the reliability of a stress-strength model and can also be interpreted as comparison of two series system with cold standby redundancy. The estimate of the stress-strength reliability is developed under maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods and under progressive type-II censoring. The interval estimates are also discussed. The application of the developed model is illustrated using a real life data set. Disclosure statement No potential conflict of interest was reported by the author(s). ORCID Thomas Xavier http://orcid.org/0000-0002-0527-6239 Joby K. Jose http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2674-6145 Subhash C. Bagui http://orcid.org/0000-0001-6140-5384 References Bhattacharyya, G. K., & Johnson, R. A. (1974). Estimation of reliability in multicomponent stress strength model. Journal of American Statistical Association, 69(348), 966–970. https://doi.org/ 10.1080/01621459.1974.10480238 Bilschke, W. R., & Murthy, D. N. P. (2000). Reliability: Modeling, prediction, and optimization. Wiley series in Probability and Statistics. AMERICAN JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL AND MANAGEMENT SCIENCES 19 Birnbaum, Z. W. (1956). 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