World Expansion of Mass Education, 1870-1980 Author(s): John W. Meyer, Francisco O. Ramirez and Yasemin Nuhoglu Soysal Reviewed work(s): Source: Sociology of Education, Vol. 65, No. 2 (Apr., 1992), pp. 128-149 Published by: American Sociological Association Stable URL: http://www.jstor.org/stable/2112679 . Accessed: 15/06/2012 09:36 Your use of the JSTOR archive indicates your acceptance of the Terms & Conditions of Use, available at . http://www.jstor.org/page/info/about/policies/terms.jsp JSTOR is a not-for-profit service that helps scholars, researchers, and students discover, use, and build upon a wide range of content in a trusted digital archive. We use information technology and tools to increase productivity and facilitate new forms of scholarship. For more information about JSTOR, please contact support@jstor.org. American Sociological Association is collaborating with JSTOR to digitize, preserve and extend access to Sociology of Education. http://www.jstor.org World Expansion of Mass Education, 1870-1980 JohnW. Meyer University Stanford Francisco 0. Ramirez University Stanford Yasemin Nuhoglu Soysal HarvardUniversity Newlyavailable enrollmentdata for over 120 countriesfor the period 1870-1980are used to examinetheoriesofmass educationalexpansion. analysesindicatethatmass educationalsystemsappeared Event-history at a steadyratebeforethe1940sand sharplyincreasedafter1950.Pooled panel regressionsshow that the expansion of mass education,once patternbefore1940, continuing formed,followedan S-shaped diffusion withadded forcelater.Expansion is endemicin the system.National variationexists;indicationsof nationalmodernizationor of structural It seemsthat have onlymodesteffects. locationin worldsociety,however, mass educationspreadsin a worldorganizedpoliticallyas nation-states and candidate states.Rates of appearance of mass educationand of expansionacceleratedsharplyafterWorldWarII, withtheintensification of mass educationin this model and the centrality of the nation-state model. M ass schoolinghas become a worldwide institution,both as a normativeprinciple and as an organizationalreality.1The aspiration to achieve universal educational enrollment is found in virtually all national societies and is oftenwritteninto their grounding constitutions (Boli-Bennett and Meyer 1978) and national laws and policies (Fiala and Lanford1987). Opposition to mass schooling, an ideological stance well documented in educational histories (cf. Furet and Ozouf 1982; Maynes 1985, Melton 1988, Mueller, Ringer, and Simon 1987), has disappeared. By 1985, mass education was compulsory in 80 percent of the countries of the world (Ramirez 1989). The rightto a free elementary education is enshrined in the United Nations' Declaration of Human Rights (Article 26). have also expanded Mass enrollments greatly.Over 90 percentof the world's childrenspend some time enrolledin schools, and over 20 percent of the world'spopulationis enrolledin elementary or secondary schools (UNESCO 1987). National educational expenditureshave increasedand representsuboftotalgovernmenstantialproportions tal expenditures. Even the poorest countriesmaintainprimaryschool systems and receive financial assistance and moralsupportto do so fromother agencountriesand frominternational cies (World Bank 1987). triThe normativeand organizational umph of mass schoolinghas unfortunatelynotled tothecriticalassessmentof theoriesofmass eduearlierexplanatory cation.This articleaddressesthisissue. theclassictheoretWe startbyreviewing in the fieldthatare often 1 By institutions,we mean "standardized ical arguments accounts that stressvariactivitysequences thathave taken forgranted functionalist ofsoin the internal characteristics ations rationales, that is some common social 'account' of their existence and purpose" (Jep- cietiesto explaineducationalexpansion. expandseitherto Schooling,itis thought, person 1991, p. 147). 128 SOCIOLOGY OF EDUCATION 1992, VOL. 65 (APRIL):128-149 Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 129 solve problemsof social order(through European countries and their settler ortomaintainthedominance offshoots-including the United Statesintegration) In boththe in the centurybefore 1870 (Maynes co-optation). ofelites(through mainstreamand the criticalvariantsof 1985; Tyack,James,and Benavot1987). theexpansionofschool- The nationallyrootedstate,secularizing theory, functional ing is a solutionto societal-levelprob- earlierreligiousideas and institutions, lems. Such argumentsdo not easily everywhereincorporatedmass educaThe political explainthe worldwidecharacterof edu- tion as a main enterprise. construction of societyas a consciously cationalexpansion. projectWe argue thatmass schoolingmade articulatedprogress-oriented sense in so manycontextsbecause it be- an active participantin and object of and public (usually state) action-was cenoftheWestern, camea centralfeature theworld,modelofthena- tral, as was the constructionof the subsequently as theprincition-stateand its development.Nation- individualcitizen-member statesexpandschoolingbecausetheyad- pal unitofsociety(fora detailedhistory hereto worldmodelsoftheorganization oftheprocessin Sweden,see Boli 1989). lines ofanalysispresupFunctionalist (themodernstate)and the ofsovereignty ofsocietyas composedofin- pose societies made up of people and organization interconthataresystematically dividuals(themodernnation).This de- activities velopmenttookplace earlierin political nected and orientedtoward collective to involve entitiesthatservedas the organizational goals.These goalsarethought ofthenewworldmodels,andthus survival in traditionalsocieties and carriers ratherthan in progressin the literaturein modern in the new nation-states, ar- ones. The collectivegoals are thoughtto the old dynasticempires.We further gue thatthe rise and expansionof mass reflectconsensus in a "social-order" analysis,but are schoolingin coloniesand dependencies variantoffunctionalist is bestunderstoodas a functionoftheir discussed as being drivenby dominant variin a "social-reproduction" linkagesto the world models and the interests extentto whichcolonieswereorganized ant. The models of nation and state Thus,thisar- within both variants are similar and as candidatenation-states. gumentsituatesnation-stateswithina clearlyfollowfromthe Westernmodel and seeksto of a nationalsociety(Hobsbawm1983). broaderworldenvironment within Functionalistlines of analysis emphaexplaineducationaldevelopments as a consequenceoftheirex- size the systematiccharacterof society nation-states posureto the pressuresof this environ- as a naturalphenomenonand explain model masseducationalexpansionas reflecting mentto adhereto thenation-state Our argument, the socialization requirementsof the of politicalorganization. and industrialized society. hence,is an instanceofthemoregeneral differentiated As social scientifictheory,functional schooloforganizational analinstitutional ysis(cf.Meyerand Scott1983;Powelland notionshave flourishedin the workof historians(Bailyn1960) and sociologists DiMaggio 1991; Zucker 1983). analysesthat (Dreeben1968). Despitemuchcriticism, Weproceedwithempirical datasetreported theseideas continuetobuttress manyexuse a newcross-national by Benavot and Riddle (1988). The data planationsoftheroleofmass education, for especiallywithinthe"educationand deinformation setassemblesenrollment (Psacharopoulous many countriesthroughoutthe world, velopment"literature fromthe late 19thcenturyto 1980. The and Woodhall 1985). Theoretical crianalysesfocuson explainingtheappear- tiquesofthe"social-orderfunctionalist" the perspectiveare well established(Berg ance of mass educationthroughout worldduringthisperiodand theexpan- 1971; Collins 1971, 1979), but the perspectivepersistsand powerfullyinfluenrollments. sion ofprimary ences educationaldevelopmentsaround world. the BACKGROUND Many criticismsof social-orderfuncThe principlesand practicesof mass tionalistthinkingneverthelessretaina perspective.Societies are education appeared in the core north functionalist 130 World Expansion of Mass Education still seen as autonomous functioning similarways,despitemuchvariationin systems,but the functionsemphasized thesupposedinternalsocietaleconomic, Thus,we are those that elites need and benefit political,and social predictors. thepotenfrom.Educationis seen as maintaining explorewithmuchskepticism discipline and orderin a systemcon- tial impacton mass educationalexpantrolledbydominanteconomicand polit- sion of such internalsocietalpredictors ical elites; it maintainsthe legitimacy as urbanization;religious,ethnic,and and power of dominantclasses (Bern- racial composition;or state authority. stein 1973) and effectivelycontrols The core hypothesesof all types of suggestthese sothe lower classes (Bowles and Gintis societal functionalism and expansionof cietalproperties, and we makeuse ofthe 1976). The emergence mass schoolingis conceptualizedas a best available indicatorsto gauge their mechanismof social control necessi- effects. withbothlinesoffunctated by excessive verticaldifferentia- Disenchantment has led researchers in two tion-itselfbroughtabout by the same tionalisttheory One direction forcesof industrialization(and some- sharplydistinctdirections. interests and times political dominance) discussed has emphasizedtheconcrete involvedinthecreationofmass within social-orderfunctionalism.An structures enormousamountof socializationeffi- education,calling attentionto the speand competitions involved cacy is againassumedwithinwhatmay cificconflicts func- and to particularhistoricalconjunctures be called this "class reproduction tionalisttheory"ofmass schooling.The and sequencesat issue. Studiesemphaofcountries, such as theoretical weaknessand empiricalshort- size uniquefeatures ofthePrussianbureaucracy, comingsof thisline of thoughtare also thecharacter the well documented(Archer1983; Boli, the statusofthe Swedishpeasantry, to theEnglish Ramirez,and Meyer1985; Olneck and extensionofthe franchise workingclass,or thegreatersignificance Bills 1980; Rubinson1986). on mass educa- ofracethanofclass in theUnitedStates. Empiricalresearchers tional expansionhave grownskeptical Thereis an emphasison theuniqueinterof almost any version of functional actionsorsequencesofvariablesas deteroutcomesin particular theory.The evidentiaryproblem has miningdistinctive been thatmuchmass schoolingemerged cases (Archer1979). At a more general in theoretical ofstatus level,theimportance and expandedbeforeindustrialization in drivingedubothWesternEurope (Furetand Ozouf conflictand competition 1982; Maynes 1985) and the United cational expansion has been stressed States (Kaestle and Vinovskis 1980; (Boudon 1974; Collins 1971, 1979). The ofthesestudieshas beento unMeyer et al. 1979). It arose later in neteffect and classthesocial-order industrialized Britain than in less- dercutfurther theories(see developed Scotland and Prussia and reproductionfunctionalist aroseas rapidlyin theAmericanWestas Melton 1988 forAustria and Prussia; in theindustrialized East.In analysesof Katznelsonand Weir1985 fortheUnited educationalenroll- States). thegrowthofprimary These studies are importantin their WorldWarII, neitherindusment-after trializationnor such social organiza- own right,as is researchthatexamines, tional correlatesas urbanizationshow withlongitudinaldata,thedevelopment substantialeffects(see, for example, of schooling within a single country, focusingon sources of internalvariaMeyeret al. 1977). Political and cultural,as opposed to tions (see Hage, Garnier,and Fuller theories 1988; BarnhouseWalters,McCammon, economic,variantsoffunctional farelittlebetter.Mass schoolingappears and James1990). But these studies do to be compatiblewith both expanded not systematicallydeal with cross(Prussia, Sweden) and limited (the national variationand cannot directly United States) stateadministrative and confronttheoriesthat seek to explain fiscal powers and with a varietyof educational expansion at the societal The emergenceand level of analysis (Rubinsonand Ralph religioustraditions. expansionof mass schoolingoccurs in 1986). This article focuses on cross- Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 131 If we considermass education as a national educational data to address these theoriesdirectly,as well as the centralfeatureofan articulatedcultural we advance. project,we can betterexplain its early alternative argument history:Mass schoolingappearedwhere the nation-state model appeared,often THE ARGUMENT despite some society-specific realities. We can also better explain its later As an institution, Westernmass edus.pread: The core models involved were cation involvesthe followingfeatures: in culturally dominant the world through(1) It focuses on the socialization of individualsformembershipin society. out the period, ensconced in every to all importantsocial theoryand ideology. (2) Itaspiresto extendmembership individuals within the society. (3) It Everylocal statethatwas eitherdriven articulatesa secular vision of progress, to or choose to enterthe competitive in which action and achievementtake social, economic,and culturalsystem place in thisworld,notin sometranscen- involved(the United Statesis an early an increas- example)adoptedthesemodels,oftenin dentalcosmos.(4) Itsetsforth inglystandardizedcurriculum(Benavot theirhighestforms,at least as abstract (Meyer1980; Thomaset al. 1987). et al. 1991). (5) And it putativelylinks policy In mass educationbecamea core sum, withpersonal masteryofthecurriculum ofthenation-state model.Its component developmentand the latterwith the collectivestandardization the celebrates progressof the nation-state.It is not unified and sovereignty purposiveness thatnationalsetbacksor failsurprising (thestate),itsindividuresoftenresultin reform movements in ofthecollectivity ual focus and enact the universality which educationalreforms play a leadand universal integrated character of ingrole.But it is difficult to bringthese nation of its and society (the citizens), propertiesto termswiththe immediate of 19th-centurysecularizedculturedefinesthecharacter functionalrequirements as an enterprise thatis social systemsunless we recognizethat ofthenation-state to attain designed From progress. this whatwas involvedwas a growingadherence to a translocalculturalproject,not point of view, mass education is not an adaptationto societalrealjust an adaptationto local social reali- primarily ities of function and power.It arose as ties.This projectwas developedas such nation-states and candidate states afby thevariouseliteswho were its main firmed, and thus legitimated enhanced, advocates. It involved an ideological nationhood within the broader Western conceptionofa new society,incorporatcivilizational network (Boli et al. 1985; ing all individuals in a unified and Meyer, and Boli, Thomas 1987; Ramirez thatwould sucprogressivecollectivity and Boli 1987). The wider world envicessfullyoperatein a real world as a ronment and itsmodelsofthelegitimate nation-state,whether organizationally mustbe centralto political organization centralizedor not (Anderson1983). The the explanation of the similaristriking relationshipof mass education to the in ties the of mass expansion schooling nation-stateis, of course,a centralin-nationalcircumstud- across widely varying sightin thepioneering comparative stances.3 ies ofMarshall(1948) and Bendix(1964). butreformulate We acceptthisinsight, it to go beyond both the conjuncturalist and society-specificnuances of their in Bergerand Luckman's(1966) explication thenation- oftheconceptofsocietyas objectivereality. work.Fromour perspective, state itselfis a transnationalcultural Of immediaterelevanceto our argumentis model within which schooling the Bergerand Luckman'scontentionthatsocishould notbe consideredin masses became a majormechanismfor etal integration functionalist termsbut,rather,as creatingthe symbolic links between structural integrated legitimations (p. 199). individualsand nation-states.2 3 Our argument resonateswithAnderson's (1983) conceptualization of "imaginedcom2 A similarbutmoregeneralview is found munities"and withFuretand Ozouf's(1982, 132 World Expansion of Mass Education We thus arguethatthe expansionof statistics.At least since the early19th mass education around the world is century,data were assembled by naof unified tional and imperialbureaus and were dependenton the formation and laterto internasovereignprojectsthatare linkedto and reportedinternally and statistirecognizedbythewiderworldsocietyof tionalgroups,conferences, ofinter- cal agencies.Much ofthisdatagathering and the formation nation-states were undertakenforthe nal principles of nationhood within and reporting countries.Since both the nation-state comparativepurposes of competition, principleand thelinkageofmass educa- emulation,and the trackingof world overthe progress.Since WorldWar II, UNESCO tionto it have gainedintensity collecteddata forall we expectratesofpenetra- has systematically past century, tionand expansionofmass educationto thecountriesoftheworldas well as for the colonies.Beforethen,the League of have increasedovertime. bodies In the present analyses, then, we Nations and otherinternational For these earlier contrastempiricallythe effectson the made similar efforts. expansionofmass educationaroundthe periods,available compendiums(Banks worldoftheclassicsocietal-levelindica- 1975; Flora 1983; Mitchell 1980, 1982, torsemphasizedby the functionaltheo- 1983) provide many enrollmentstatisries withotherindicatorsof the expan- tics, but other sources (such as the sion and spread of mass educationas reportsof the Colonial Officeof Great partofthedevelopmentoftheprojectof Britain 1890-1940) provide additional the nation-state.We examine changes information.(For a complete list of over time in the world context and sourcesofthepresentdata,see Benavot variationsamong countriesin links to and Riddle 1988.) The basic data consistof the number this context and to its models of a nationalsociety.Our aim is to developa of studentswho werereportedas being bettersense of the rise of a world in enrolledin primaryschool. Secondary which mass education of a particular enrollmentswere very small in the typehas becomepracticallyuniversal. earlier decades of the analyses, and whentheybecamesignificant, werekept clearlyseparatein nationalreports.We do not knowhow manyofthe enrolled THE DATA studentsactuallyattendedschool or for Dependent Variable how manyhoursor days a yearschools were in session. But formalenrollment To describeand analyze the expan- itselfis a significantindicationof the in establishment sion ofmass educationalenrollments or formation ofa national countriesaroundtheworldfrom1870 to educational system.The data include 1980, we employdata assembledfrom public and privateschool enrollments. manysourcesand reportedby Benavot Early statisticalreportstended to be and Riddle (1988). The self-conscious- clear in theirconceptionof what was ness ofnationsaboutthevirtuesofmass and whatwas nota schooland included educationled, even early,to an empha- onlyorganizations thatincorporated edsis on recordkeepingand on reporting ucational arrangements that one might enrollmentstatistics.This process was consider"modern."Traditional religious by no means trueof earliereducational or local culturalschooling,as in Islamic venturesin the Europeanworldsphere countriesor in severalAsian countries, or elsewhere.Analogousto the rise of such as China,Japan,and Korea, was, census taking,ideological views that practicallyspeaking, neither counted society is made up of persons who nor reportedby the professionalsand matterand whose socializationmatters bureaucratswho were concernedwith to the calculable benefitsof society managing"education."This omissionis fosteredan emphasis on enrollment itself an importantindication of the charspecialrationalizedand projectlike p. 314) discussion of the rise of mass society acter of moderneducation throughout theworld.Instruction was kepttrackof, in the West. Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 133 and seen as relevantto the nationand over time fora given case, theireffecton the world, only if it aspired to the longitudinal analyses is likely to be reduced. modernform. To use enrollmentstatistics,it is The major problems with the data set necessaryto establisha reasonablede- are not in the inaccuracy of the numbers nominator,so we can calculate the available, but in the systematiccharacter proportionof the eligiblestudentswho of the numbers that are not available. wereenrolled.Doing so is somethingof Countries with low enrollments were a problem.First,enrollmentstatistics unlikely to report statistics, and the are availableformorecountriesthanare process that generates mass education reasonablygood census data that clas- turns out to involve the creation of sifypeoplebyage. Second,itis oftennot officialstatistics,too. Thus, the data set clearexactlyhow manyyearsofschool- is biased against cases with little mass the appropriateprimary education. For instance, even though it ing constituted educationalcycle. For recentdecades, was common in the late 19th centuryfor both problemscan be partiallysolved more peripheral countries or colonies to detailednationalcen- have no mass education, we have no becausereasonably suses and UNESCO recordsthatdefine case in which no mass education was the lengthof the primarycycle in each statisticallyreported. We can correct a areavailable.These dataareless little for this bias in case selection by country commonlyavailable forthe periodsbe- including (with a value of zero) earlier data for countries for which we have foreWorldWarI. Benavotand Riddle (1988) built sev- later data indicating that this is approeral sensiblecompromisesintothe data priate, that is, enrollments were near setwe use. First,all primaryenrollment zero. But doing so fills in few of our datawerestandardizedto an estimateof missing data points. In our analyses, we the national populationaged 5-14. In make a substantive issue out of this practice,most countrieshave had pri- methodological one and approach the mary cycles of about six years, with matterdirectly.4 decreasingvariationaround this standard over time. Thus a realisticmaxiIndependent Variables mum enrollmentratiois about 70 perPropertiesof a national "society." It is cent. Some countries,especiallyin the earlierdecades,had longerprimarycy- difficultto find variables that capture of some of the themes of the functionalist cles in principle,butlow proportions studentswereenrolledin thelateryears literaturecoveringthe whole 1870-1980 ofthecyclein a typicalcountry.Hence, period. In the later part of the period, the errorsintroducedare almost cer- more variables are available (see the tainlysmall.In any event,muchenroll- analyses in Meyer et al. 1977). We have in developingcoun- assembled a few variables that cover ment-particularly trieswithnewereducationalsystems- most cases of countries, but data are tended to pile up in the firstyears of inevitably incomplete. The following primaryeducation,with much repeti- indicatorsare used to reflectcharacteristion,so thismaybe themostreasonable tics of societies thathave been argued to play a role: procedure. Second, when a detailedcensus esti* Urbanization (proportionof the popmate of the 5-14-year-oldpopulation ulation in cities over 100,000) is a main was notavailable,an estimatewas made indicator of social and economic develto the opment, and one of the few that is by (1) applyinga constantfraction overall population or (2) interpolatingavailable to cover a long period. It is fromcensus data forsurrounding periods (see Benavotand Riddle1988 forthe 4 A list of the presentcountriesof the exactprocedures).Errorsintroducedby worldand thetimepoints,runningto 1870, theseproceduresare likelyto be small, forwhich we have enrollmentdata or estigiventhegreatvariationin enrollments. matesforeach country, is availablefromthe Since errorsare likelyto be reproduced authors. 134 WorldExpansionofMass Education highlycorrelatedwithsuch otherindi- grated,and non-Whites wereperipheralcatorsas per capitagrossnationalprod- ized. For instance,in the 19thcentury, uct or energyconsumptionper capita, the American states with substantial butis availableformanymorecountries non-White populationsavoidedcompuland periods.Data are coded as of the soryeducationand slowed theireducaofeach decade oftheanalysis. tional expansion(Tyacket al. 1987). It beginning In additionto the explicitdata sources seemslikelythatcountrieswithprimarwitha knownscore ilyWhitepopulationswould showmore we use, anycountry of zero fora period is given the same educationalexpansion.Sinceracialcomscore forall earlierperiods,which re- position is highlyautocorrelatedover flects that urbanizationhas declined time, we characterizecountriesat a almost nowhere in the past century. singletimepoint,mainly1900. (Sources: (Sources: Banks 1975; UNESCO 1987.) Barrett1982; CIA 1987.) * Religion(thepercentageofthepop* Ethnolinguisticfractionalization is ulationwho are Christian)is an indica- a conventionalmeasureof likelyintertorofthe dominancewithinsocietiesof group competitionin relationto such thesortsofmodernvalues thatare often goods as education.In functionaltheothoughtto be associated with wide- ries, it is suggestedas an indicatorof spreadliteracyand mass education(see, functionalneeds for education as a for example, Stinchcombe1965). The mechanism of integration.In statusdata are takenfora singlepointin time competitiontheoriesof educationalex(1900), but this variable has a high pansion(see, forexample,Collins 1971, autocorrelationover time, and more 1979), it can be an indicatorof the precise measuresof denominationsor intensity ofintergroup culturalcompetireligiosity would changelittle.(Sources: tions. In both lines of thought,high Barrett 1982;CentralIntelligence Agency fractionalization may be expected to [CIA] 1987.) generatemorerapid educationalexpan* Independence (a dummy variable sion. Autocorrelation in the variableis indicatingindependentversus depen- veryhigh,so the variableis treatedas dent or colonial status) is an obvious constant over time in our analyses. indicatorofpoliticaldevelopment. Mass (Source:Taylorand Hudson 1971.) education,it is oftenargued,is a creatureofthisdevelopment, whichrequires A Typology of Polity Linkage to a mobilized and socialized population World (Sources: Banks 1975; Mitchell 1982, Models 1983; Statesman'sYearbooks[forvariA mainresearchaim is to contrastthe ous years];Wilkieand Perkel1985.) effectsof the sortsof internalvariables * The presenceof a nationalrule of just definedwith those of a country's compulsoryeducation (a dummyvari- links to the modern world polity of able) is takento-indicatethe extended nation-states. The fundamental hypotheofthe statein the educational sis is that countriesthat are closely authority domain. Mass education is generally linkedto this systemthroughorganizato reflect theriseofstateauthor- tional dependence or throughmemthought ityas an organizational matter.Previous bership and competitionare likely to research(Soysal and Strang1989) sug- developmasseducationalsystems, indegested that the variable is not itself pendentof local social conditions.Two influenced,by the growth in enroll- crucialelementsare involved.First,the ments.(Sources: UNESCO 1955-71, sup- external linkages of a countrywork plementedbydatafromvariousnational throughtheestablishment ofa principle of unitarymembership(or direct or sources.) * Race (percentageof the population dependentmodernsovereignty) in the who are Caucasian), in the explicitly central organization,which takes on racistworld of the late 19th and early modernstatelikeforms.Second, such 20thcenturies, is an obviousindicatorof close linkagesbringto a countrythe culturaland politicalstanding.In many projectofnationbuilding,the principle areas, Whites were functionallyinte- of reconstructing the masses into na- Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 135 informationalcitizens.Whenone discussesthe ogywithdetailedcountry-level in the world tion-on thesejointaxes: ofterritories incorporation indepen- At one end of the continuum,of organizational intothissystem, denceis nota crucialelement:Models of course,is thecoreitself(1): thenorthern stateand nationcommonlyderivefrom European and Anglo-Saxon countries theformacolonial dependence (Anderson1983), (19 cases). In thesecountries, as well as fromindependentmember- tion of modern sovereigntyand the principleofnationhoodarehigh.In fact, ship in theworldsystem. precededourperiodof Bytheend ofWorldWarII, modelsof highenrollments the constructionof integratedmodern analysis,and fewcases enterthedataset and of modernnationalso- we analyze. But we clearlyexpect the sovereignty ciety were spread almost everywhere,rapid expansionof enrollmentsin this thoughthe principleof organizational category. Next come a series of typesof counautonomywas still contested.The cruwith close links to the central tries cial periodthatrequirestheconstruction and with substantialsocietal models of a typologyforour researchis 1870bymodelsofnationbuilding: 1940-the period in which much vari- penetration WesterncounPeripheral independent needs ance in thegrowthofenrollments tries (35 cases). Clearly part of the tobe explained.Indicatorsarenotdevelnation-state system are more peripheral To proceed,thereoped in theliterature. Euin southern and eastern countries a fore,we constructed simple typology In Latin these rope (2) and America (3). of a country'sstructurallocation visa-vis the world polity (Meyer 1980) countries,links to world models of duringthat period. First,how closely sovereignty are lower and nationare less developedthan was thecountrytiedto theworldpolity buildingefforts in the But on both dimensions, core. and exposed to its models of integrated thesecountriesare clearlyembeddedin or stateformation, through thesystem,and we expecttheexpansion sovereignty direct independent involvement or of enrollments to be rapid,althoughit throughclose organizationallinkages? mightbe less so forLatin America,at Ideally,we would like indicatorsofthe leastuntilafterWorldWarII and therise extentof clarityand consensus in the ofextensiveinternalmobilization. worldabout the existenceand political Core colonies and dependencies(4) aboutthe legitimate (ofBritain, unityofa territory, France,and theUnitedStates: thatwas sovereignoverit,and 52 cases). We referhere to colonies of authority about the membership(and status) of corecountriesthatwerelocatedoutside this sovereignauthorityin the wider the Sub-Saharan region (which was, world. during much of the 1870-1940 period Second, how closelywas the country less tightlyorganizedby real colonial mod- statesthat attemptednationalpenetrasovereign-constructed tied,through els of nationbuilding,to the models of tion and construction).The cases we societythatweredominantin theworld examine are mostly in North Africa, polity?At issue is the degreeto whicha Asia,andtheCaribbean). Ourargumentas which differsfromothers-stressesthe politicalentitywas institutionalized oper- relativelyclose linkagesof these counan actual or projectednation-state Ideally, triesto world centersand theirmodels atingin a worldofnation-states. we would like indicators,such as the and the consequenteffortsat colonial censuses national construction(such as by the existenceofmapsofa territory; extend- BritishColonialOffice).We expectthese ofpopulations;legalregulations ingdowntovillagesand individualsand cases to show muchgreatereducational coveringmany sectors;and economic, expansionthan classic functionaltheosystemsand accounts ries would predict.Our emphasisleads tax,and monetary character(see to theexpectation of a similarlypenetrating thatlinksto dominant Boli et al. 1985). worldcenters,combinedwithaggressive We distinguishtypes of countries- center-legitimated nation-buildingefproducedmuchearliereducational lackingthe resourcesto createa typol- forts, 136 World Expansion of Mass Education expansionthan would be predictedby thisperiod,a numberofcountries(such local economic,racial,independence,or as Ethiopia,Kuwait,and Mongolia) alreligiousstatus.Argumentsthat stress thoughin somesenseindependent, were the interestsof core powers in the so farremovedfromtheworldmodelsof maintenance of simple domination eitherstateor nationbuildingthatwe would also not lead to this prediction. may expect little expansion of enrollWe arguethatcoredominationresultsin ments. therapidincorporation ofcoreideological models. The examinationof early British imperial attemptsat national RESULTS constructionin particularled to our The Existence of EnrollmentData conceptualizationof this category.The historyofAmericanefforts in thePhilipThe existenceofinformation on enrollpines and in PuertoRico led to thesame mentsfora countryturnsout, as was conclusion. noted earlier,to be relatedto the exisLong-term non-Western independents tence and expansionof mass education (5) (8 cases). A smallnumberofindepen- itself.Countrieswithno primaryenrolldentpolitiesoutsidetheWesternsystem mentsto report-andtherewereclearly enteredthis systemand competitivelymanysuch countriesat thebeginningof mobilized during the period (Strang our period-did not reportdata on the 1990). Japan is the most commonly subject. And it seems that data were discussed case, but Turkey,China,and morecommonlyreportedand available Koreaarealso noted.Thesepolitieswere when enrollment rateswere high.Mass linkedto worldcentersthroughcompet- education and its reportingsystemgo itive processes duringthe period and together,a situationthat poses some attempted reactivemobilizationand na- problemsforouranalysis. tion building. We expect educational We examined,foreach category ofour expansionin thesecountries, giventheir typologyof polity linkage to world internaland externalstrugglesto com- models,theproportions ofcountriesthat pete in thewiderworldsystem. reportedenrollmentdata for each peOther categoriesof countrieswere riod.By 1980, datawerereportedforthe much more distantlyconnectedto the great majorityof countries in every worldsocietyand itsmodelsofstateand category(92 percentoverall).But in the nation building during the 1870-1940 early decades, therewere few data in period: most categories.The polity categories Core (British [6] and French [7]) Sub- fall into a rough sequence in data Saharancolonies(35 cases). These cases reporting-asequence thatmaytell not weremuch less closelylinkedto world only about the availabilityof informacenters,giventheirsystemsof indirect tion, but about the spread of mass rule in the earlier colonial decades. educationitself. Centralizedsovereignty was less likely Firstcome the core countries,mostof to appear, as were nation-building ef- which (89 percent) reporteddata in forts,thoughthe latterare morevisible 1870, followedby the more peripheral in the Britishthanin the Frenchcases. independentWesterncountries,which We expect low levels of educational enteredthe data set in 1880 (59 percent expansionin thesecountries. and in 1890. Then come the reporting) Peripheral (8) (Spanish and Portu- main colonies and dependenciesof the guese) colonies (13 cases). These cases core powers, which tended to enter were distantlylinkedto the worldcen- around1900 (58 percentreporting). The tralityand were unlikelyto experience non-Western independentcountriesenaggressivenationbuildingby metropol- tered around 1910 (50 percentreportitan powers that did little at home, ing), and the Britishand FrenchSubeither. We expect the low levels of Saharancoloniestendedto enteraround educational expansion in these coun- 1920 or 1930 (51 percent reporting). tries. Finally,the peripheralcolonies entered Far peripheries (9) (15 cases). During the data set around 1950 (62 percent 137 Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal and whatwe have called the of enrollmentsabove 10 percent.This reporting), farperipheryenteredthe data set only rateappearsto be highenoughto indiaround1960 (with87 percentreporting). catethattheaspirationto establishmass A country'sappearancein the data set, educationhad probablybeen presentfor in otherwords,followsthespreadofthe some decades. But for71 countries,the principles of sovereigntyand nation- firstrecordedvalue foran enrollment hood around which our typologyis rate is below 10 percent. This is a in entryintothe small-enoughfigureto make at least built.Time differences thatthesecounplausibletheassumption data set are extreme. So much missingdata, and the obvi- trieshad recentlyacquiredthepurposes ofmasseducation.We ous relation of missing data to the and arrangements absence of mass educationitself,poses explore this possibilityby analyzing methodologicalproblemsfor our later rates at which such countriesentered analysisoftheexpansionofenrollments the world of mass education and the this entry.Of course, and may lead us to overemphasizethe factorsaffecting universalityof this expansion. It also the data set is far froma reasonable poses problemsforour analysis of the sample, and the assumptionof recent earlyoriginsofmass educationin coun- entryis plausible but not certain.But, tries,since withoutdata reportingthe we submitthattheresultsareinteresting absence of enrollments,we have no and add to the understandingof the ofmass schooling. on transitionsfrom formation directinformation Time. In Table 1, we show therateat no mass educationto some mass educawhen which the countriesin this subset enmanycountries, tion.Furthermore, theyfirstenteredthe data set,reported teredthe system(thatis, appearedwith below 10 percent) substantial enrollment rates, which reportedenrollments clearlydevelopedoversubstantialperi- overtime.In each periodtheproportion for of the available cases that enteredis all thecorecountries, ods. Practically instance,already had high enrollment reported.This itselfis a numberthat levelsin 1870,whenthedata setbegins. perforcedeclinesovertime,since cases Manyothercountriesenteredlaterwith thatalreadyenteredare no longeravailable forfurtherentry.The resultsare levels. highenrollment however,our simple and striking.The rate of entry Fora subsetofcountries, butroughlyconstantat ratesindicate was substantial, data on initialenrollment low enrollmentlevels, suggestingthat around 10-15 percent per decade, until we are close to thepointoforiginofthe the post-WorldWar II period. It then system.This possibilityis strengthenedleapt to a high value (72 percent)-so by the fact that,as we observe later, high that the available cases were exgrowthwas endemic in the primary educationsystemsof the world during Rates of "Entering"Mass Educathe period under study.In an explor- Table 1. tion forCountries, by Decadea atoryway, we can considerinitial relevelsas indicatNumber of portsoflow enrollment Countries ing'a pointoforigin. An ExploratoryAnalysis of Origins Year 1880 1890 As was noted earlier, nothing can be 1900 said from our data about the entry of 1910 most countriesinto the world of mass 1920 education. First, 30 countries already 1930 1940 (over 1950 highenrollments relatively reported 10 percentof the 5-14 age group) by 1960 1870,includingpracticallyall countries 1970 that are now considered developed. 1980 Percentage of Countries (Available for"Entry") 14 10 11 18 23 13 11 8 72 83 100 71 61 55 49 40 31 27 24 22 6 1 a Second,81 countriesenteredthedataset Countries that reported an initial enrollment onlylater,butwitha firstrecordedrate ratio below 10 percent. 138 World Expansion of Mass Education haustedquickly,arndno further informa- Table 2 reportsthe resultsof a set of tioncan be obtained. theseanalyses. There are two obvious explanations First,we includeourtypology ofpolity forthe dramaticpost-WorldWarII rise structural linksto worldmodelsas a set in the rate. First, the world society ofindependent variables.Thisanalysisis changedat about thattime,with mass reportedin the firstcolumnof Table 2. education becoming a more pressing We omitthedummyvariableforthecatobligationforany nation-state and with egoryperipheralindependentWestern a dramaticincrease in the likelihood countries-thecountries that,overall,enthatany given countrywould be seen, terthesystemmostquickly,so the coefinternally and externally, as an actualor ficientsfortheothercategoriesare nega-' prospectivenation-state(Strang1990). tive in comparison.(Note again thatno Bothforcesprobablyoperated,withthe core-country casesentertheanalysis,since triumphof both liberal and socialist these countriesalreadyhad enrollment formsof nation-states thatwere deeply rates above 10 percentand were thus rooted in mass education over more droppedfromtheanalysis.) traditionalempiresand withthe rise of The results show that the type of themoderninternational organizational polity linkage greatlyaffectsrates of system(such as the UnitedNationsand entryinto mass education. The core UNESCO) emphasizingboththe nation- colonies and dependencies,long-term stateand mass education. non-Westernindependents,and core Second, the foundingof UNESCO, BritishSub-Saharancolonies enter at with its more efficientdata-gatheringratesbelow-but notfarbelow-those of system,helps produce our resultas an the peripheral independent Western because all sortsof countries, countries. The peripheral colonies, artifact, includingthosewithlittlemass educa- FrenchSub-Saharancolonies,and espetion, were then more likely to report cially countriesin the far periphery, data. This effectis undoubtedlyoperat- enterat significantly lower rates. The ing,but the resultis so extremethatit dummyvariableforthepost-WorldWar seemsobviousthata realincreasein the II period shows significant positiveefformation of world mass educationoc- fects.Overall,in our typology, nearness curred.In all probability,the rise of to thenation-state systemturnsoutto be agencieslike UNESCO indicateda real a powerfulpredictorofthisindicatorof change,ratherthansimplyan improve- theoriginsofmass education. mentin data collection.In any event, A furtherquestion arises: Beyond giventheinitialresults,subsequentanal- structural location,do characteristics of yses include a dummyvariableforthe societies themselvesadd much to our period 1950-80. Entryinto the mass abilityto predictentryintomass educaeducationworld increasedso much at tion? To investigatethis question,we thispointthata controlfortimeperiod added to the initial analysis available is obviouslyneeded forfurther analysis. indicatorsof characteristics of national Table 1 shows societies that might be suggestedby characteristics. Country thatforthe 1880-1940 period,the rate at which countriesenteredthe mass educationarenavariedwithina surpris- Tuma and Hannan (1984) is used to analyze conditions affectingthe probabilitythat inglynarrowrange.We now examine the "entry" will occur. The dependent variable characteristics ofcountriesthataffected is the instantaneous rate at which "entry" how rapidlythecountrieswentthrough occurs, this transition.We pursue the analysis r(t) = lim (dt -* 0) Pr(t, t + dt)ldt of rates of entrywith simple eventhistorymodels,analyzingthe instanta- where Pr(t, t + dt) is the probability that neous rateof entryas it was affected by "entry" occurs between time t and t + dt. a variety of independent variables.5 The effects of explanatory variables are modeled in a log-linearframeworkto ensure nonnegativerates: 5 The event-history methoddescribedby r(t) = exp(B* independent variables). 139 Meyer,Ramirez,and Soysal LOt . 5 0 X~~~~~~~~~~~~c DCO _ ___ co t0~~~~~~c U' C. tO. X. 0. 00. 0._ cl .O~~C~ ____ , cq co co ( co cs r-aX* v - .o .a. .3 X~~~~~~~ X o |~~~~~~0 sO N Q C N ___~~~~~~r fu X LO eN NOCD~~~~~~~~~~~O^ Ps _ i 0 LO !; m co;m vUmmt Fas t cn t_ t~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~o 8 @ Zmn^v>-:2ausSs < X~~~~~~~~~~cl :zz 140 World Expansion of Mass Education the- variousnumbersofcases. Case numbers variousfunctional (andcompetition) ories emphasizingthe causal role of expandovertimewiththe entryofnew propertiesof societies themselves(see countries,many with low enrollment column 2 of Table 2): urbanization, rates,intothe data set. Betterestimates racial composition,religiouscomposi- of inclinationstowardgrowthare made frac- by lookingat thegrowthin enrollments tion,independence,ethnolinguistic tionalization,and the existence of a forconstantsets ofcountries.We examnationalrule of compulsoryeducation ined the mean growthin enrollment (see definitionsand sources presented ratiosforall cases forwhich we have theperiod. earlier).Thesevariablesare added to the data,foreach decadethrough initialanalysisone at a time,giventhe We also examined the percentageof small size of the case base. The coeffi- countries,duringeach decade, thatexcients of the typologycategoriesvary perienceda growthin the enrollment little,no matter whichvariableis added. ratio.The data show thatthe expansion in mass educationis the The analyses cannot be directlycom- of enrollments pared with the initial one, since the generalrule. Overall, more than--twoadditionofsocietalpropertiesresultsin thirdsofthecountriesshowgrowthin a theloss ofsomecases becauseofmissing typicaldecade,withthe averagegrowth data. being about 5 percentof the available of the societies age group. Such characteristics The exceptionsto the patternof geninvolved, over and above our basic add littleto theexplanationof eral growthturn out to be of little typology, entryintomasseducation.The originsof substantiveinterest.Most of themarise ceiling mass education,thesespeculativeanal- in cases thatreachedtheeffective about 70 percentof ysessuggest,lie morein theorganization ofmass enrollment, oftheelementsofthenation-state model the population aged 5-14. We then in a given territory than in any direct looked at the growthin enrollments for ofthe local those countrieswith ratios below 50 ofthe characteristics -effects societyitself.As a finalstep,in the last percentat thebeginningofeach decade, columnof Table 2, we show the effects along with the proportionsof these of the societal characteristics that we countriesthat showed positivegrowth considered,independentof our polity duringthe decade. The resultsturnedout to be clear. Case bases are reducedby the typology. lack of available data foreach period, More than 85 percentof the countries but the resultsare roughlysimilarto withroomforincreasedenrollments in thosein theinitialanalyses.The results each decade did, in fact,grow-a result show thatthesecountrycharacteristics,thatappearsconsistently the throughout meangrowth by themselves,produce a less satisfac- wholeperiod.Furthermore, torypredictionof rates of entrythan was substantial.Finally,thereseems to does thepolitytypologystandingalone. have been a good deal of homogeneity Again,theresultssuggestthattheimpor- overtimein the overallaveragerateof tantfactorin the originsofmass educa- growth(ataround5 percentperdecade), tion is the organizationof the polity withthe striking exceptionthatgrowth around the nation-state principle.This rates increased,startingaround World principle increasinglytriumphsin an War II. The growthin enrollments was increasingly integrated and competitive around5 percentperdecadebefore1940 Westernnation-state and thenmorethandoubledafterWorld system. WarII to around12 percentper decade. The implicationof these data is that The Expansion of Mass Education once masseducationbeganin a country, The overall data on mean enrollment growth was a worldwideprocessthroughrates for countries in each category out the period,increasingin intensity suggestthat rates generallyrose through withWorldWar II. We know fromthe the centuryofthe study.These data are analysisthatmanycountriesbeganthe of littleuse, and greatlyunderstatethe process late-and thus experiencedno changes,because theyare computedon growthin the early decades of the Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 141 period.The pointhere is thatonce the witha goodmanyotherphenomena,two processbeganin a country, growthwas broad sets of growthmodels may be likelytobe considerable.Itmaybe noted distinguished(see Meyer et al. 1977). that the expansion in reportedenroll- Correspondingto the causal image of mentswas evenmoreimpressivethanit educationspreadinglike a disease from may firstappear. It occurredagainsta those who have it to the untouched in which,in mostcountries, population are the familiarS-shaped background therewas rapidgrowthin the 5-14 age curvesofdiffusion. Growthis low at low groupthatis the main targetformass levels-there are plentyof people to be education.Thus, despite great expan- educated,but fewto spread education. sionsin theunderlying population,rates Growthis low near the ceiling-the of enrollmentconsistentlyincreased impulse is spread fromthe many edutheperiod. cated,but thereare fewleftforgrowth. throughout Growthin theenroll- Growth is maximal at ratios in the Modelinggrowth. ment rate is obviously likely to be middleofthedistribution. Alternatively, pointin a one mayimagineeducationas spreading relatedto a country'sstarting thereareceiling froma commoninstitutional givendecade.Certainly, force-for that were alreadyat instance,worldmodels,withtheirprineffects-countries near-fullenrollmentwere unlikelyto ciples of state sovereigntyand nation educationfurther. There building-ratherthan fromthe already expandprimary are almostcertainlysome flooreffects- educated.In such cases, growthis more countries with little mass education likelyto be simplyproportionalto the were likelyto expand enrollmentsless population remainingfor penetration than those with the institutional infra- and thusis onlya decliningfunctionof in place. In short,it is neces- the startingratio. Growthis highestif structure sary to see how growth,in a given there is little or no education at the countryovera decade, is relatedto the startingpoint,decliningto zero among at theceiling. starting point.The issue is ofsubstantive thecases starting interest, since different growthtrajecto- Table 3 shows,foreach decade in our ries imply different causal processes. data, the relation of the growth in But the issue is also a crucialmethodo- enrollmentsto a country'senrollment toanysubsequentanal- ratioat thestartofthedecade. Countries logicalprecursor In are classifiedby theirinitialenrollment ysis ofthe expansionof enrollments. models of the effectsof otherindepen- ratio,and foreach groupofcountriesso dentvariableson laterenrollments, ear- distinguished,mean growthlevels are lier enrollments, witha specificationof reported.Clear-cutpatternsresult.First, theireffects, are themostcrucialcontrol forthe decades fromthe 1870s through variables. the 1930s,growthtendedto conformto Witheducationalenrollment ratios,as the S-curvemodel,suggesting local difTable 3. Mean Growthin EnrollmentRatios, with CountriesClassified by Initial Enrollment Ratio Enrollment Ratioat StartofDecadea (0-20) (21-49) (50-70) 4 (13) 8 (12) 4 (7) 3 (19) 4 (16) 2 (6) 4 (28) 6 (26) 9 (10) 3 (32) 5 (31) -.4 (14) 3 (32) 3 (37) - 3 (12) 7 (40) 4 (39) 4 (16) 5 (14) 6 (20) 3 (14) 8 (12) 9 (21) 5 (15) 11 (37) 13 (37) 4 (31) 11 (29) 10 (45) 3 (49) 13 (12) 13 (50) 2 (61) a Cell entriesaremeangrowth. in Cases are parentheses. Period 1870-80 1880-90 1890-1900 1900-10 1910-20 1920-30 1930-40 1940-50 1950-60 1960-70 1970-80 (71+) 4 (4) 5 (6) 2 (8) 2 (11) - 1 (13) .7 (12) - 1 (6) -7 (5) - 5 (24) - 6 (33) -7 (38) 142 World Expansion of Mass Education fusion.Thatis, growthwas highesthalf- countriesduringthe past centurywas wayfromthefloorofzeroto theeffective probably nearer 90 percent than 70 ceilingofaround70 percent.Itwas lower percent. But with the rise of mass belowandforthosestart- secondaryarrangements(such as the forthosestarting ingabovethismiddlerange. middle, or junior high, school), the Second, after1940 or 1950, the pattern primaryschoolingcycletendedto stanchanged.To the earlierS-curvepattern dardizearounda shorterperiod,as with was added a tendencyfor growth'to theAmericandriftfroman eight-year to points,sug- a six-yearprimarycycle. declinewithhigherstarting gestingthe impact of a strongcentral The importantfindingthatthe mass forceforeducationalexpansion.Those educationalexpansionprocesschanged pointsgrew aroundWorldWarII can be investigated countrieswithlow starting step.Table 4 reportsresults much morerapidlyin the laterperiod in a further thanin theearlierones. Butthird,forall from a series of multiple regression countriesthatwere some distancefrom analyses of all countries in all the theeffective ceiling,growthtendedto be decades pooled together.We exclude higherduringthe later period. There instancesof countriesat or above an seemsto havebeen muchless resistance enrollmentratio of 70 percentat the to,mass educa- beginningofa decade (whichwe taketo to, or feweralternatives be theceiling),butotherwiseincludeall tionalexpansion. Finally, the data show that growth availablecases. Thus,a givencountryis indeed diminishedabove an effective likelyto enterthedata set severaltimes. ceilingofabout 70 percentofthepopu- In fact,thepoolinggivesa datasetof927 lationaged 5-14. This has clearlybeen cases. Growthin theenrollment ratioin the twentiethcen- percentages ofthepopulationaged 5-14 the case throughout the effect is takenas the dependentvariable.As tury.In the late 19thcentury, was less strong.Beforethe rise of the independentvariables,we considerthe masssecon- twoformulations oftheenrollment ofdifferentiated institutions startdary schooling,primaryeducation in ing point for the decades that were somecountrieshad a longercycle,ofup discussed earlier. Leading to the Sto nineyearsinsteadofthemoretypical, curve, we include as an independent and the more recent,standardof only factorthe initial enrollmentrate (pi) ceilingthat multipliedbytheeffective six. As a result,theeffective ceilirlgminus was reached in a few more developed this rate (70 -pi). This factorcaptures Table 4. Multiple Regression Estimates of Growth of PrimaryEnrollment Ratios, Pooled Panel Model With 10-Year Lags: Models of Effectsof StartingPointa I b+ c+ b (1940-80 only) c (1940-80 only) Constant R2 Numberofcases (countries* timepoints) a Coefficient .007** (.26) .067** (.15) - S.E. .00 .01 - - - -1.55 .92 .08 927 Coefficient .006** (.24) .05* (.10) .002 S.E. .00 .07* (.16) -1.71 (.09) .13 927 S.E. .00 .02 Coefficient .007** (.25) - .00 - _ .02 .115** (.25) - .35 .01 .65 .12 - .72 927 in parentheses. Standardizedcoefficients + b = pl * (70-pl) c = (70-pl) wherep1 is the primaryenrollment ratioat the beginningof a decade and p2 is the primary enrollment ratioat theend ofa decade * p < .05. ** p < .001. Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 143 theidea thateducationexpandsintothe models.Thus, we concludethateducathe period available population at a rate deter- tional expansionthroughout processoperminedby its local presence.Leadingto reflecteda local diffusion thesimplemodelofgrowthas occurring atingwith greaterforceas enrollments froma constantsourceintotheavailable expanded.Added to thisprocessaround population,oursecondindependentfac- WorldWarII was a worldwidedrivefor ceilingminus the expansion of educational enrolltoris simplythe effective the initial rate (70 - pl). Thus, the basic ments into the available population, levels. regardlessofpreviousenrollment model is The events around World War II clearly made mass education a more (1) p2 - pi = a + b(p1)(70-p1) urgentbusiness. Two slightlydistinct + c(70-pl) + error, causal factorsmay have been involved: (1) an intensifiedpressureto enact the at the ratio enrollment the is p2 where and (2) a modeleverywhere end ofa decade and p1 is theratioat the nation-state beginningofthe decade. In Table 4, we tightenedrelationshipbetweenthe namodeland masseducationas a estimatethis model forthe entiredata tion-state set acrossthe whole 1870-1980 period. legitimatedmeans, bolsteredby both But we also, giventhe earlierempirical humancapitaland politicalmodernizacontemobservationthatthe educationalexpan- tiontheories.Boththesefactors, sion process changed as of the World porarythinkingin political sociology War II period,estimatemodels permit- suggests,were enhancedby such variting effectsto differforthe early and ables as the breakdownof the older empiresin thewarand thehegemonyof laterperiods: nationtheliberaland education-focused state model. The simple analyses of = a,+ b(pl)(70-pl) p2-pl (2) Table 4 account for notable but still + c(70-pl) relativelymodest proportionsof the + d(1940-80 only) across variancein growthin enrollments (pl)(70 -pi) countriesand decadesoftheperiod.The + e(l940-80 only)(70 - pl) question,now, is how additionalinde+ error. pendentfactorsmayaccountformoreof The resultsin Table 4 showthatin the thisvariation. ofnationalcharaceffects overall analysis, both the coefficient Independent in thefield The mainarguments the S-curvediffusionprocess teristics. reflecting and the coefficientreflectinga world tookit forgrantedthatmass educational processoperatingwitha simpleceiling expansionis a productof the requireaffectgrowth.In the mentsofsocietyand internalsocial relaeffectsubstantially that allows for tions.For all sortsof reasons,complex refined analysis more effectsover time,the S-curve modernsocietiesdemandbettertrained different process of diffusionclearly operates and socialized participant members. aremainlyecotherequirements throughoutthe whole period. But the Whether added process reflectingan increased nomic,political,social,or culturalis not tends buttheassumption worldwidedirectimpetusto educational clearlydefined, expansion, limited only by a ceiling to be thatvariousdimensionsofmodernmainlyafter ization require-and produce expanded becomes significant effect, WorldWarII. In fact,simplyeliminating mass education.It is hardto findindicaand thisfactorbeforeWorldWarII, as in the torsofvarioussortsofmodernization final equation in Table 4, lowers the developmentformanycountriesover a period,but we have meaoverall variance accounted for only a century-long areas.If suresin a numberofsubstantive little. Furtherexperimentswith the data, generalsocial or culturalmodernization effectsto differacross more is a mainfactorin expansion,theindicapermitting refinedperiods than our simple 1940 torswe haveoughttobe adequateenough breakpoint,suggestedlittleoverallim- to reflectit. provementin the fit of the regression In Table 5, we examinethe effectsof WorldExpansionofMass Education 144 that withtheexpectation interaction terms, theywouldacceleratethemaindiffusion in this process.An additivespecification, context,makes less sense. No independentvariablemaybe expectedtoproduce an effect at theceiling,norshoulditsefCoefficient S.E. fectat the floorbe large.For the 1870BasicModel is simplyby 1940 period,theinteraction .001 thesingleS-shapedbasic term. .004** b (1870-1940)+ (.25) The results of Table 5, a series of .923 .271 Constant obvioustestsofstandardlinesofthought, .06 R2 279 ofcases Number ofthe are strikingly negative.The effects Model Elaborated independentvariablesare generallyin.002 significant, .007** b(1870-1940)+ and addingthemto thebasic (.39) increases the variance acequation .000 .000 Urbanizationb counted for only modestly.Only the (.03) Race effectof nationalindependencereaches .000 .000 (percentageWhite)b statisticalsignificance,and that effect (.10) lies in the wrong directionfromthe .001 - .000 Christianb (-.03) predictionsof received theory. This .001 - .000 Compulsoryb surprising findingreflectsthe earlyrise (- .07) in such cases as the of mass education - .003* .001 Independenceb BritishCaribbeancoloniesand thePhil(-.22) .925 ippines. The effectof urbanization-a .169 Constant .10 R2 greatmainstayofall versionsoffunction279 Numberofcases alist theory-is essentiallyzero. The + b = pl * (70-pl) effectof ethnolinguisticfractionalizaratioatthe tion-a directindicatorof the potential enrollment wherep1 is theprimary ofa decade. beginning a towardeduforcesofstatuscompetition in parentheses. Standardizedcoefficients b with cationalexpansion-is also verysmall. variablesare interacted All independent thetermb. resultsappearedin earParallelstriking *p < .05. lier work on the expansion of enroll** p < .001. mentsafterWorldWar TI (see Meyeret al. 1977). But it was assumedthatthey several independent variables for the simplyreflected a worldin whichmass 1870-1940 period (the baseline model educationwas so completelytakenfor forthe later period differs,as shown in grantedas a nationaldesideratumthat Table 4, requiring a separate analysis). local variationin independentfactors We considerthe variables definedearlier: retainedlittleeffect. It was reasonableto urbanization, religious composition, in- expectthatlocal societalvariationwould dependence status, racial composition, effects earlier.Itis surprisshowstronger ethnolinguisticfractionalization,and the variation does not. but local ing, presence of a national rule of compulthe earlier To research,we replicate sory education. Each variable is entered the in Table 5 forthe analysis repeated into our models ofeducational growthin Table 5. Multiple RegressionEstimatesof RaEnrollment GrowthofPrimary tios (1870-1940), Pooled Panel Model With10-YearLags:All SubstantiveIndependentVariablesInteractedwithba Table 5. The analysis takes the formof 1940-80 period. In this case, since the the following model, which is a simple baseline model includes two distinct terms,theanalysiswas carried elaboration of our basic model for the diffusion twice: out first,with the independent 1870-1940 period: (3) p2 - pl = a + b(pl)(70 - pl) + c(Ind. Var.) + err. (pl)(70-pl) The independent variables are added as variables interactedwith the S-curve diffusionterm and then, with them withthe simpleceiling-effect interacted term.The resultsare notpresentedhere, since again the independentvariables In one analysis,urbanshowfeweffects. lAgac1'iTrgr RPom iro,7 rnn 145 .4nvxcnl ization shows a slightpositive effect, Table 6. Multiple Regression Estimates of Growthof PrimaryEnrollmentRaand the existenceof a compulsoryedutios (1870-1940), Pooled Panel cationrule shows a slighteffect(butin Model with 10-Year Lags: All Indethe "wrong" direction)in one other.6 pendent Dummy Variables InterBut overall,the five independentvariacted with ba and only ables show almostno effects, Coefficient. S.E. triviallyincreasethevarianceaccounted for. Basic Model .000 .005** b(1870-1940)+ A decade-by-decadeexaminationof (.23) the data to findcases ofthe exceptional .78 .697 producesclear Constant expansionofenrollments R2 .05 illustrationsof why the independent Number of cases 487 variablesdo notoperate.We foundearly ElaboratedModel in such func- b(l870-1940) + expansionof enrollments .001 .007** (.36) places as PuertoRico, tionallysurprising .001 -.004* the Philippines,and Barbados-entities Peripheralindependent (-.23) Westerncountriesb outside the orbitof urban or indepen- Core .001 -.002 colonies or Whitesociety. and dependencieshb dentorbureaucratized (-.12) .003 -.005 Thesecases suggestedthatourstructural FrenchSub-Saharan (-.08) typologyof polity linkages to world coloniesb .002 -.002 BritishSub-Saharan modelsmightshow effects. (-.07) coloniesb To explore this possibility,we re- Peripheral coloniesb .014 -.002 peated the analysis in Table 5 with a (-.005) .002 .004 parallel analysis in Table 6, this time Non-Western (.08) independentsb typologyas a using the polity-linkages countriesb set ofindependentvariables(coreis the Core .78 .518 Constant omittedcategory).Again,each dummy R2 .09 by Numberofcases 487 variablein thetypologyis interacted a our main diffusioneffectforthe 1870Standarderrorsin parentheses. b with 1940 period.The resultsof Table 6 are All independentvariablesare interacted again surprisinglynegative.The vari- the+ termb. b = pl * (70-pl). ance explained in the analysis is nol ratioatthe enrollment wherep1 is theprimary much greaterthan with the baseline ofa decade. beginning model. And the specific coefficients * p < .05. ** p < .001. suggestrelativelylittlevariationacross the categoriesofthe typology.Only the independentsand thecore non-Western countriesbehaveas expected,withpos- the world of mass education,reporting growthis genitive effectson expansion. The same some level ofenrollment, floor and ceiling efby eral-modified analysisrepeatedforthe1940-80 period by the suggested Neither properties fects. (again, with two formsof interaction the catnor functional analyses traditional termsconsidered)also showsalmostnc ofpolity overthebaselinemodel egoriesdevelopedin a typology enhancedeffects difmake much models to world linkage in predictingthe expansion of enrolluniversal move toward Countries ference. and the appears, ments.Littleofinterest mass educationat ratesthatvary,butdo resultsare notshownin thetables. Thus, overall,the analyses permita not varymuch withthe generalpredicwe have considered. simpleconclusion:Once countriesentei tivefactors CONCLUSIONS 6 Studiesof educationalexpansionin the countriesin the Overall,we findthat of UnitedStatesalso failto show theeffects old core were alreadyapproachingunithe passage of compulsoryeducationlaws mass educationby 1870. Thereafversal often laws Such (Soltowand Stevens1981). follow,ratherthanprecede,educationalex- ter,mass educationalsystemsappeared pansion. at a rathersteadyratearoundtheworld 146 World Expansion of Mass Education untilWorldWarII, witha sharpincrease itwas likelyto expandtowarduniversalin therateat thatpoint.The rateofentry ity.Boththeratesofappearanceofmass into the world of mass education is education and the rates of expansion affectedlittleby such propertiesof a acceleratedsharplyaround WorldWar byboththeintensinationalsocietyas urbanization,racial II, probablyaffected principleand independence, ficationofthenation-state orreligiouscomposition, of mass educaor even the existenceof a compulsory the increasedcentrality education rule. The rate of entryis tion withinthe model of the national stronglyaffectedby structurallocation state. The logicofuniversalmodernschoolin theworldsociety.Countriesthatwere linked to both elementsof the nation- ingis one thatlinkstheindividualswho val- are conceivedas makingup themodern statesystem,withcentralauthority in or dependence nationwiththeunifiedcollectivethatis idatedbymembership by the modernstate.Other on theworldsocietyand withsomesort represented present, historicalmodels of polityand society ofprincipleofnationalformation were much more likelyto createmass do not carrythis logic or the universal education systems.What is important socializationsystemthatthe logic imand contraryto some explanatoryim- plies. ages,theyincludedmanyofthe central coloniesofthe corepowers. REFERENCES The expansion of mass education, once formed,was endemicthroughout the period,but rates of expansion in- Anderson,Benedict. 1983. Imagined Commuon theOriginsand Spread creased after World War II. In the nities:Reflections of Nationalism. New York: Verso. Archer,Margaret.1979. The Social Originsof an S-shaped diffusionpattern,limited Educational Systems. Beverly Hills, CA: as ifeducaby floorand ceilingeffects, Sage Publications. 1870-1940 period, expansion followed tional systemswere growingon a soci. 1983. "Process Without System." etallyengenderedprocesswithina supEuropeanJournalofSociology24:196-221. portiveworldcontext.AfterWorldWar Bailyn, Bernard. 1960. Education in the II, the same process continued,but an FormingofAmericanSociety.ChapelHill: added force that applied everywhere Universityof NorthCarolina Press. (limitedonly by ceilingeffects)gained Banks, Arthur. 1975. Cross-National Timestrength-asif the world societyitself Series Archive. Albany: State Universityof was playing an immediatelydirective New York Press. role. While expansionwas endemicin Barnhouse Walters,Pamela, Holly J.McCammon, and David R. James.1990. "Schooling thesystem,leadingto a modernworldin or Working?Public Education, Racial Poliwhichalmostuniversalmass education tics, and the Organization of Production in appeared,the effectsofparticularprop- 1910." SociologyofEducation63:1-27. erties of national modernizationor of Barret,David. 1982. WorldChristianEncyclolocationin the world society pedia. Nairobi: OxfordUniversityPress. structural were modest.Therewas nationalvaria- Benavot, Aaron, Yun-Kyung Cha, David Kation-in expansion,but it was affected mens, John Meyer, and Suk-Ying Wong. 1991. "Knowledge for the Masses: World little by the propertiessuggestedby Models and National Curricula, 1920traditionalfunctionaltheoryor by a typologyof locationsin the world sys- 1986." AmericanSociologicalReview56: 85-101. tem. Mass education spread around the Benavot, Aaron and Phyllis Riddle. 1988. "National Estimates of the Expansion of world with the spread of the Western Mass Education, 1870-1940." Sociology of system,with its joined principles of Education 61:191-210. nationalcitizenshipand stateauthority. Bendix, Reinhard. 1964. Nation-Buildingand As theseprinciplesappearedin a terri- Citizenship.New York: JohnWiley & Sons. tory,sometimesthroughindependence Berg, Ivar. 1971. Education and Jobs: The but more oftenthroughcolonialization Great TrainingRobbery.Boston: Beacon Press. by core powers, mass education appeared.Once mass educationappeared, Berger, Peter and Thomas Luckman. 1966. 147 Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal ofReality.Garden The Social Construction City,NY: Doubleday. Bernstein, Basil. 1973. Class, Codes, and Control (Vol. 2). London: Routledge & Kegan Paul. Boli, John. 1989. New Citizens for a New in OrganizaIn The New Institutionalism tional Analysis, edited by Walter Powell and Paul J.DiMaggio. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. Kaestle, Carl F. and Maris Vinovskis. 1980. Originsof Mass Society:The Institutional NineteenthEducationand Social Changeyin CenturyMassachusetts.Cambridge,En- tunity,and Social Inequality:Changing Prospectsin WesternSociety.New York: and the EighteenthCenturyOrigins of Schoolingin Prussiaand AusCompulsory from Calvin to Jules Ferry.Cambridge, ican JournalofSociology85:978-86. in The Inventionof Tradition,edited by tics: The Americasand Australia.Detroit: gland: Cambridge UniversityPress. Schooling in Sweden. Oxford: Pergamon Katznelson, Ira and Margaret Weir. 1985. Press. Schoolingfor All: Class, Race, and the Boli, John,Francisco 0. Ramirez, and John DeclineoftheDemocraticIdeal. NewYork: Meyer. 1985. "Explaining the Origins and Basic Books. Expansion of Mass Education." ComparaMarshall, T. H. 1948. Class, Citizenship and tiveEducationReview29:145-70. Social Development. Garden City, NY: Boli-Bennett, John and John Meyer, 1978. Doubleday. "The Ideology of Childhood and the State: Rules DistinguishingChildren in National Maynes,MaryJ.1985. Schoolingin Western Constitutions,1870-1970." American SoEurope. Albany: State University of New York Press. ciologicalReview43:797-812. Boudon, Raymond. 1974. Education, Oppor- Melton, James Van Horn. 1988. Absolutism tria. Cambridge,England: Cambridge UniversityPress. Schoolingin CapitalistAmerica.NewYork: Meyer, John. 1980. "The World Polity and Basic Books. the Authority of the Nation-State." Pp. 109-38 in Studies of the Modern World CentralIntelligenceAgency. 1987. The World System, edited by Albert Bergesen. New Fact Book. Washington,DC: Author. York: Academic Press. Collins, Randall. 1971. "Functional and Conflict Theories of Educational Stratifica- Meyer,John,JohnBoli, and George Thomas. 1987. "Ontology and Rationalization in the tion." AmericanSociological Review 36: Western Cultural Account." Pp. 11-38 in 1002-19. George Thomas, JohnW. Meyer, Francisco . 1979. The Credential Society: A HistoricalSociologyofEducationand Strat- 0. Ramirez, and John Boli, eds. Institutional Structure:Constituting State,Sociification.New York: Academic Press. ety,and the Individual. NewburyPark,CA: Colonial Officeof Great Britain. 1890-1940. Sage Publications. The ColonialOfficeList.London,England: Meyer,JohnW., Francisco 0. Ramirez, RichWaterlow & Sons. ard Rubinson, and JohnBoli-Bennett.1977. Dreeben, Robert. 1968. On What Is Learned "The World Educational Revolution,1950in School. Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley. 1970." Sociology of Education 50:242-58. Fiala, Robertand Audri Lanford. 1987. "Educational Ideology and the World Educa- Meyer,JohnW. and W. Richard Scott. 1983. Ritual and OrganizationalEnvironments: tional Revolution." Comparative EducaRationality.Newbury Park, CA: Sage Pubtion Review 31:315-33. lications. Flora, Peter. 1983. State, Economy, and Society (Vol. 1). Frankfurt:St. JamesPress. 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The Rise of the Modern EducationalSystem:Structural Changeand Jepperson, Ronald L. 1991. "Institutions, Social Reproduction,1870-1920. CamInstitutionalEffects,and Institutionalism." 148 World Expansion of Mass Education bridge, England: Cambridge University Statesman's Yearbook.Various years.London: Macmillan. Press. Olneck, Michael and David Bills. 1980. Stinchcombe, Arthur. 1965. "Social Struc"WhatMakes SammyRun? An Empirical ture and Organizations." Pp. 153-93 in oftheBowles-Gintis Correspon- HandbookofOrganizations, Assessment editedbyJames dence." AmericanJournalof Education March. Chicago: Rand McNally. 89:27-61. Strang, David. 1990. "From Dependence to Powell,Walterand Paul J.DiMaggio.1991. Sovereignty:An Event HistoryAnalysis of The New Institutionalism in Organiza- Decolonization, 1870-1987." American Sotional Analysis. Chicago: Universityof ciologicalReview55:846-60. ChicagoPress. Taylor, Charles L. and M. C. Hudson. 1971. Psacharopoulous, GeorgeandMaureenWoodWorldHandbook of Political and Social hall. 1985. Education for Development. Indicators, Vol. 2. Ann Arbor:InteruniverOxford:OxfordUniversity Press. sity Consortium for Political Research, Ramirez,Francisco0. 1989. "Reconstituting Universityof Michigan. Children:Extensionof Personhoodand Thomas, George, John Meyer, Francisco 0. Citizenship."Pp. 143-65 in Age Structur- Ramirez, and JohnBoli. 1987. Institutional ing in ComparativePerspective, editedby Structure: Constituting State,Society,and David Kertzerand K. WarnerSchaie.Hillsthe Individual. Newbury Park, CA: Sage dale,NJ:LawrenceErlbaumAssociates. Publications. Ramirez,Francisco0. and JohnBoli. 1987. Tuma, Nancy B. and Michael T. Hannan. ofMass Educa"The PoliticalConstruction 1984. Social Dynamics:Models and Methtion: European Origins and Worldwide ods. New York: Academic Press. Institutionalization." Sociologyof EducaTyack, David, Thomas James, and Aaron Benavot. 1987. Law and the Shaping of Public Education. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press. UNESCO. 1955-71. World Survey of Educa519-48. tionHandbooks (Vols. 1-5). Geneva: United Rubinson,Richard,and JohnRalph. 1986. Nations. "MethodologicalIssues in the Study of . 1987. Statistical Yearbook, Paris: EducationalChange."Pp. 275-304 in John United Nations. G. Richardson,ed., Handbook of Theory and Researchforthe Sociologyof Educa- Wilkie, James W. and Adam Perkel, eds. tion 60:2-17. Rubinson,Richard.1986. "Class Formation, Politics,and Institutions: Schoolingin the USA." AmericanJournalof Sociology92: 1985. StatisticalAbstractofLatinAmerica tion.Westpqrt, CT: GreenwoodPress. (Vol. 24). Los Angeles: UCLA Latin AmeriSoltow,Lee and EdwardStevens.1981. The can CenterPublications. Rise ofLiteracyand theCommonSchoolin the UnitedStates:A SocioeconomicAnal- World Bank. 1987. World Development Report 1986. Oxford:OxfordUniversityPress. ysis from 1870. Chicago: Universityof Zucker, Lynn. 1983. "Organizations as InstiChicagoPress. Soysal,YaseminNuhogluand David Strang. tutions." Pp. 1-43 in Advances in Organi1989. "Construction oftheFirstMass Eduzational Theoryand Research, Vol. 2, edited by Samuel B. Bachrach. Greenwich, cationSystemsin Nineteenth-century EuCT: JAIPress. rope."SociologyofEducation62:277-88. JohnW. Meyer,Ph.D. is Professor, Department ofSociology,StanfordUniversity, Stanford, California.His main fields of interestare sociologyof education,organizations, political He is currently conductingcomparativestudiesof the sociology,and social stratification. nation-state and theworldsystemand cross-national studiesofeducationalorganization. Francisco 0. Ramirez,Ph.D., is Professor, Departmentsof Educationand (by courtesy) His mainfieldsofinterest Sociology,StanfordUniversity, Stanford, California. are sociology of education,social change,gender,and political sociology.He is presentlyconducting comparativestudiesof thepoliticalincorporation of womenand cross-national studiesof educationand development. YaseminNuhogluSoysal, Ph.D., is AssistantProfessor, Department of Sociology,Harvard University, Cambridge,Massachusetts.Her main fields of interestare the worldsystem, political sociology,and comparativeand historicalculture.She is currently conducting and cross-national comparativestudiesofregimes,citizenship,and guestworkers research on franchisedevelopment. Meyer,Ramirez, and Soysal 149 Thisarticleis a revisedversionofa paperpresentedat theannualmeetingsoftheAmerican EducationalResearchAssociation,San Francisco,March1989. The researchreportedhere was supportedby GrantSES-8420232fromtheNationalScienceFoundationand byfunds fromthe StanfordCenterforthe StudyofFamilies,Children,and Youth.The authorsare in theComparative indebtedtoa numberoftheircollaborators EducationProjectat Stanford fortheirhelp and suggestions, particularly forthedata-collection efforts ofAaronBenavot advicefromNancyTuma,and adviceand helpin several and PhyllisRiddle,methodological Addressall correspondence to Professor areasfromJohnBoli and Mac Ventresca. Francisco CA 94305-3096. 0. Ramirez,School ofEducation,StanfordUniversity, Stanford, MANUSCRIPTS FOR THE TheASAArnold and CarolineRose Monograph Series invites authorstosubmitmanuscripts forpublication. The Serieswelcomesa variety ofsociologicalwork: orquantitative qualitative empirical studies,and ormethodological theoretical treatises.Forinformation, ortosubmit a manuscript (fourcopies,please),contact theEditor, Professor TeresaA. Sullivan,Rose Monograph Series, 436 BurdineHall,Department ofSociology, TX78712-1088. ofTexas atAustin, University Austin,
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