Ash to Ash, Dust to Dust: A Geopolitical Theory
A Theory Formulation Paper Submitted to
The Faculty of the Social Science Department
College of Arts and Humanities
Palawan State University
In Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements
for the course PSE 5 - Geopolitics
Second Semester, AY 2024-2025
GANDECILA, Viva Victoria N.
May 23, 2025
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Title Page……………………………………………………………………………………...i
Table of Contents………………………………………………………………………....... ii
A. INTRODUCTION…………………………………………………………………….1
B. BODY
Ash to Ash, Dust to Dust……………………………………………………………2
The War Dog…………………………………………………………………………4
The Return of War…………………………………………………………………...5
Shock and Awe………………………………………………………………………5
No Russian…………………………………………………………………………...7
God’s Wrath………………………………………………………………………….8
Whiskey Hotel…………………………………………………………………….….9
Loose End……………………………………………………………………………9
Operation Contingency………………………………………………………...….10
Hunter Killer…………………………………………………………………………11
Turbulence………………………………………………………………………….12
Black Tuesday……………………………………………………………………...12
The Eye of the Storm………………………………………………………………13
Dust to Dust………………………………………………………………………...13
Viva Victory…………………………………………………………………………14
Absolute Power…………………………………………………………………….14
C. CONCLUSION
Ashes of War……………………………………………………………………….15
References…………………………………………………………………………………16
ii
A. INTRODUCTION
The modern world is marked by rising geopolitical tensions and deadly conflicts
that endanger global stability. Among the most serious is the current Russo-Ukrainian
War, which has caused significant destruction, displacement, and changes in the
structure of global security alliances. Simultaneously, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict
has reached a critical point in Gaza, resulting in grave humanitarian effects and
repeated violations of international law. In South Asia, the long-standing rivalry
between India and Pakistan, particularly over Kashmir, continues to worsen regional
instability through randomly military conflicts and diplomatic chaos. Meanwhile,
tensions in the Indo-Pacific area are escalating as China and the Philippines engage
in maritime disputes over sovereignty in the West Philippine Sea (known also as South
China Sea), raising the possibility of a broader regional confrontation. In the past five
years, conflict levels have almost doubled. For 2020, there are recorded 104,371
conflict events, this year, for the same period, nearly 200,000. With this, over 233,000
deaths is a conservative estimate of reported fatalities resulting from these events in
the past year (ACLED, 2025).
The conflict between Russia and Ukraine remains highly active, with no
ceasefire in place. As of May 2025, Russian forces are conducting multiple offensive
operations aimed at pushing Ukrainian troops back from the border regions,
particularly around Kharkiv and within Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts. Fighting has also
spilled over into Russian territory, with Ukrainian operations reported in Kursk Oblast.
Russian military strategy continues to focus on capturing the remainder of Donetsk
and Luhansk, and possibly advancing further west. The war remains dynamic, with
shifting frontlines and ongoing air, missile, and drone campaigns (Wolkov et al, 2025).
Meanwhile, the Israeli government has approved an expanded military operation, with
plans to relocate Gaza’s population to the south and maintain a blockade on
humanitarian aid. The stated objectives are both the return of Israeli hostages and the
defeat of Hamas, though the humanitarian toll has drawn international concern. Over
52,000 Palestinians have died since the war began, and the UN has warned that the
latest Israeli expansion could result in even greater civilian casualties (Rowlands,
2025).
1
On the other hand, India and Pakistan recently experienced their most severe
military confrontation in decades. In early May 2025, India launched pre-dawn
airstrikes on targets in Pakistan in response to a deadly attack in Indian-administered
Kashmir. This triggered four days of escalating hostilities, including missile and drone
strikes on military sites across both countries. Although a ceasefire, reportedly
brokered with U.S. involvement, has held for several nights, the situation remains
tense. Analysts note that traditional diplomatic red lines have eroded, leaving both
nuclear-armed neighbors in a state of armed coexistence with a high risk of renewed
conflict from even minor provocations (Sharma, 2025). At the same time, Tensions
between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea continue to simmer.
While the latest search results do not provide detailed updates for May 2025, the rivalry
is rooted in disputes over territorial claims and maritime rights. The Philippines is
reportedly planning a long-term strategy to address China's assertiveness in the
region, signaling a move away from previous policy fluctuations and toward a more
consistent approach (Beltran & Beltran, 2025).
Ash to Ash, Dust to Dust
In a world increasingly defined by geopolitical tensions from long-running
conflicts to intensifying great-power rivalries, this paper tends to investigates how
supremacy is achieved within the anarchic international order. This Theory or "Ash to
Ash, Dust to Dust" theory is central to this study, arguing that major transitions in global
power structures are primarily caused by cataclysmic events rather than progressive
diplomatic or economic processes. Historical past events clearly indicate this pattern
of where in the aftermath of World War II, powerful powers who won like the US and
USSR consolidated their positions while defeated states (Germany, Italy, and
Japan) who were the hegemons at that time experienced extensive restructuring,
resulting in a new world order that still exists in many ways today. The theory contends
that the current international hierarchy, whether unipolar or multipolar, is naturally
unstable unless addressed through large-scale war. This viewpoint contradicts
traditional institutionalist beliefs that promote cooperation and slow change, instead
fitting with realist ideas that see conflict as an unavoidable tool for reshaping the global
balance of power.
2
Throughout history, major shifts in global power have often followed large-scale
wars. World War I and II both dramatically changed which nations were the most
powerful and how the world was organized. Today, while we haven’t yet seen a global
war of that scale in recent decades, a number of regional conflicts are beginning to
show patterns that could lead to another major transformation in the global order.
Current conflicts like the Russia-Ukraine war, the ongoing Israel-Palestine crisis,
tensions between India and Pakistan, and disputes between China and the Philippines
in the South China Sea may seem separate. But if we look closely, we can see that
they are becoming more connected. These aren’t just isolated fights over borders or
resources, they are part of a larger, more complex web of global tension. Countries
involved in these conflicts are forming alliances, using economic pressure like
sanctions and trade restrictions, and even working with underground networks such
as organized crime or cyber groups to gain an edge. These developments challenge
older ideas about how global power works. One of the most well-known theories is
Halford Mackinder’s Heartland Theory, which argued that whoever controls the central
landmass of Eurasia, where what he called the “Heartland” could dominate the world.
At the time, this theory made sense because military power was tied closely to physical
territory and resources. These conflicts are found the Eurasia continent, hence, make
it more of an extension of the Heartland theory to explain power and dominance and
how to apply the Ash to Ash, Dust to Dust Theory.
At present, influence stems not only from land, but also from complex networks
of military alliances, economic influence, information control, and unofficial actors like
mercenaries, and criminal organizations. These “non-state actors” operate across
borders and often do things that official governments cannot openly do. They provide
a level of deniability, allowing countries to act aggressively without starting a full-scale
war. With regard to this, Hamas primarily obtains its weapons from a criminal
organization in Iran, which supplies arms that are smuggled through Egypt and
brought into Gaza via an extensive tunnel network under the Gaza-Egypt border
(Guay, n.d.). The arms trafficked underground end up with a variety of actors, including
rebel groups, Islamist organizations, and government forces. In Syria, for example,
both moderate and extremist groups have received Eastern European weapons,
sometimes in violation of international laws (Welle, 2016).
3
The War Dogs
Rising tensions in the Middle East, particularly between Palestine and Israel,
have been intensified by transnational illicit arms trafficking carried out by underground
criminal organizations, which funnel weapons into Palestine and further fuel the
ongoing conflict. Hamas has managed to obtain a steady supply of arms through a
combination of underground stealth routes, support from transnational criminal
organizations, and assistance from foreign governments like Iran. One of the most
well-known methods used by Hamas is the construction of underground tunnels,
especially along the Gaza-Egypt border near Rafah. These tunnels have been used
to move weapons, ammunition, explosives, cash, and construction materials used for
military purposes. Even though many of these tunnels have been destroyed by
Egyptian and Israeli forces, new ones are often built in secret with the help of local
arms traffickers and Sinai-based criminal gangs, who profit from the arms trade (Alster,
2013). As Hamas gains access to more advanced and longer-range weapons through
these underground networks, it is able to launch more frequent and more powerful
attacks on Israeli territory. This includes not only short-range rockets but increasingly
sophisticated systems—such as guided missiles, drones, and anti-tank weapons—
that pose a greater threat to both military and civilian targets. As the group’s military
capabilities grow, Israel responds with larger and more forceful airstrikes, ground
operations, and tightened blockades, further escalating the cycle of violence. What
might begin as a limited exchange quickly turns into a wider conflict with heavy
casualties on both sides.
The involvement of transnational illicit arms trafficking networks means that
other regional players like Iran, Hezbollah, or organized crime groups in Egypt and
Libya become indirectly involved in the conflict. This deepens regional instability and
raises the risk of the war expanding beyond Gaza, either through direct support or
proxy battles in neighboring areas. In this way, the flow of illegal arms not only
strengthens Hamas but also internationalizes what might otherwise be a localized
conflict, drawing in new actors and multiplying the dangers. It transforms the conflict
from a cycle of periodic clashes into a more sustained and dangerous confrontation
with fewer paths toward resolution.
4
The Return of War
As current global tensions continue to escalate, the balance of power and the
perception of global dominance by the year 2035 will likely be shaped by the outcomes
of four major geopolitical conflicts. This theory suggests that a significant reordering of
global power structures can only occur in the aftermath of another large-scale global
conflict—potentially a Third World War. Although such a conflict is not inevitable, it
appears increasingly likely given the trajectory of current hostilities. This scenariobased analysis explores the “ash to ash, dust to dust” theory, illustrating how the
convergence of escalating global tensions could lead to a restructuring event—one
that fundamentally reshapes international relations, military alliances, and the global
balance of power.
Shock and Awe
The Gaza Strip, 2035, A sudden surge in violence erupts after a radical
paramilitary faction seizes control of the Gaza Strip, overpowering the Palestinian
authority and launching coordinated rocket attacks deep into Israeli territory. The new
leader, a hardline militant, broadcasts extremist propaganda and vows to unify the
Palestinian territories under armed resistance. Intelligence sources believe that the
new leader has received foreign weapons-grade materials, including possible
radiological components, smuggled through tunnels from rogue states. Israel declares
a state of emergency, and the United States, fearing wider destabilization, sends a
U.S. Marine Expeditionary Unit to support counterterror operations alongside the
Israeli Defense Forces (IDF).
Consequently, the US Marines, invades via Black Hawk helicopters into Gaza’s
coastal zone under the cover of night. Their objective is to capture a target building,
from which the new leader of Palestine has been airing propaganda, inciting mass
uprisings in the West Bank and East Jerusalem. As the Marines fight their way through
narrow alleyways, booby-trapped buildings, and dense urban resistance, they reach
the station only to find it abandoned and the video was pre-recorded. It ends with
suspicions that Hamas is receiving outside support and is planning something larger.
5
After intercepted communications suggest that Hamas fighters are moving
rockets and fuel canisters through the Jabalia area, the Marines are deployed with
Israeli armored units. The US Marine unit pushes deep into the heavily fortified refugee
camp, facing sniper fire, ambushes from tunnels, and civilian entanglements. In this,
the Marines secure a disabled Merkava tank and help evacuate wounded IDF soldiers
while clearing out a warehouse suspected of being a weapons cache. A combined IDF
and U.S. column, including armor and infantry, advances toward the suspected
location of Hamas. Insurgents armed with drones and homemade explosives launch
a fierce defense. This ends in partial success with territory is secured, but the Hamas
has once again slipped away.
With Israeli surveillance drones detecting unusual radiation patterns in the area,
concerns rise that Hamas may be attempting to detonate a dirty bomb or smuggled
warhead. A rescue operation is launched to retrieve a captured Mossad informant
believed to know the location of the bomb. During this, the Marines extract the
informant under heavy fire. He reveals Hamas has already planted the device
somewhere in the city. As the U.S. command orders an emergency evacuation of
troops and civilians, it’s already too late. During a desperate aerial exfiltration over
Gaza, a sudden, blinding flash engulfs the skyline followed by a thunderous
shockwave. A Nuclear device has been detonated in the city’s heart, unleashing chaos
and terror in an instant. The explosion decimates entire city blocks, scattering debris
across miles and spreading radioactive contamination through the dense urban
sprawl. Palestinian civilians, Israeli Defense Forces, and U.S. military personnel are
all caught in the blast radius and there is no distinction in its path of destruction.
The detonation of a nuclear weapon in Gaza causes global impact. Tensions
in the Middle East rise. Russia denies involvement, but suspicions are high. Israel is
preparing for a complete military mobilization. The United Nations convenes an
emergency session. The United States and its allies began investigating the scope of
Hamas' international links. Intelligence implies that a mysterious figure in Eastern
Europe may have provided Hamas with the bomb components, laying the framework
for the next step.
6
No Russian
After the devastating Gaza nuclear crisis caused by a underground Russian
organization and false-flag operations, Israel and Palestinian authorities reached an
uncertain ceasefire. However, the appearing silent was short-lived. Extremist
members of the Russian network reorganized into The Ultranationalist, a new
underground force whose goal is to destabilize regional order and drive all Western
influence out of the Middle East. In the early stages of recovery, heavily armed
terrorists disguised as Palestinian Authority police attack a joint UN-Arab coalition
checkpoint in the West Bank. Several international officials and peacekeepers were
killed. Survivors talk of a new faction, The Ultranationalist, which claims to speak for
all oppressed Arabs and rejects Fatah and Hamas as “Western puppets”.
Days after the West Bank incident, masked terrorists wearing Federalnaya
Sluzhba Bezopasnosti (FSB) tactical gear emerge from a blacked-out transport
convoy during a televised peace rally outside the State Duma. They opened fire on
the crowds without notice, flooded the area with gas grenades, jammed all
communications with drones, and chaos followed. Civilians flee while operatives kill
specific targets including as opposition leaders, military generals, and foreign
diplomats, including the EU's Special Envoy to the Federation. There have been
43 confirmed deaths. The footage was leaked within hours. The massacre is being
blamed on an undercover Ukrainian intelligence unit supported by NATO black ops.
Nationalists are growing throughout Russia. Protests begin and Martial Law is
declared. However, behind the attack, rumors emerge. The offenders were neither
Ukrainian nor NATO. The attack was a false flag, expertly planned by an underground
organization known only as The Ultranationalist, a rogue association of former military
loyalists and capitalist war profiteers. Surveillance later reveals connections to the
Central Intelligence Agency, a US Federal Agency implanted deeply within US special
operations. The weapons seized were American, and one of the perpetrators killed
was an undercover CIA operative. The orders were not Russian. The world watches
as Russia accuses the West. NATO mobilizes, and in the shadows, World War III has
just begun.
7
God’s Wrath
In an unexpected outbreak of conflicts, Russian soldiers launch an airborne
assault of the United States, targeting suburban and commercial districts in northern
Virginia. The invasion catches the people off guard, transforming quiet neighborhoods
into combat zones. U.S. Army Rangers are quickly sent to secure important locations
and evacuate civilians. Fighting heats up outside fast-food restaurant, gas station, and
electronics store, which have been converted into temporary defensive strongholds.
The Rangers withstand wave after wave of invading Russian troops and armor, relying
on close air support to survive. As the fight progresses, a distress signal is received
from a fallen aerial vehicle containing valuable intelligence, necessitating a dangerous
extraction under fire. The US soldiers narrowly holding the line, the sky dense with
smoke, and the suburbs converted into a battlefield.
The battle for control moves deeper into the country. Army Rangers are
responsible for creating a path for civilian evacuations and securing important roads.
Moving through highly damaged suburbs and overpowered crossroads, the troop
encounters fierce resistance from entrenched Russian forces. The fighting is close and
intense. Armored vehicles drive through the streets, while infantry forces push home
after house to retake control. The Rangers eventually secure an important overpass
and regain communication with allied command elements. The action buys valuable
time for refugees to flee, but it is costly.
The capitol of Washington, D.C. is under intense siege. Landmarks burn and
monuments crumble as Russian forces advance into the city center. U.S. Army units
engage in intense urban fighting to repel the assault and regain important strongholds.
Fighting intensifies around the War Memorial and important government facilities.
Smoke covers the sky as aircraft fly overhead and artillery rumbles the ground. US
soldiers execute a coordinated counteroffensive to push the enemy back and calm the
situation. Despite enormous deaths, the defenders regain key sectors and start to turn
the tide.
8
Whiskey Hotel
In the midst of war and fighting in the US, a surprise strike disables US satellite
systems and defensive infrastructure. A nuclear weapon is detonated high above the
continental United States, causing an electromagnetic pulse that disables all
electronics along the eastern seaboard. The power grid collapses, communications
are lost, and aerial vehicles fall from the sky. Across Washington, D.C., military men
scramble in chaos, fighting in the dark against Russian forces. The previously
organized defense is thrown into chaos. With no access to drones, radios, or support
systems, American troops retreat and regroup as the capital falls into a war-torn,
apocalyptic haze. The world transforms in an instant, and survival now rests on
tenacity and ground tactics. Fighting through rain-soaked trenches, destroyed parks,
and burned pathways, U.S. Army Rangers fight in violent room-to-room combat. The
situation within the White House is catastrophic, with the structure substantially
destroyed and enemy troops entrenched within. As enemy forces threaten to overrun
the facility, the defenders request emergency air support. Flares are deployed barely
in time to keep friendly bombers from destroying the building. The White House was
once again under American control, but the city remains a war.
Loose Ends
Somewhere in Pakistan, the hunt for those responsible for the worldwide
disaster leads to a violent South Asian city ruled by a powerful militia. A joint special
operations task force infiltrates the urban sprawl, hoping to apprehend a high-value
target connected to the greater plan. As the task force navigate thick alleyways and
rooftops, the operatives engage in heavy firefights with heavily armed terrorists. The
location is a maze of small passageways and booby-trapped structures, and the
enemy takes full advantage of the terrain. Despite considerable opposition, the task
team arrives at the target's last known location, but the situation swiftly deteriorates.
With local forces in large numbers, the squad is forced to make a chaotic rooftop
escape, just making it aboard a waiting chopper under a shower of bullets.
9
After extracting intelligence from Pakistan, an undercover mission takes place
on an offshore oil facility in the South China Sea. The task force conducts a nighttime
raid on a fortified terrorist stronghold suspected of containing high-value personnel.
The operatives infiltrate the rig from the sea, quietly removing guards and disrupting
communications. However, it swiftly devolves into a direct assault when alarms sound
and enemy reinforcements engage. The task force fights from deck to deck, securing
critical control rooms and neutralizing defenses. Their ultimate goal is deeper within
the institution, in a guarded chamber where inmates are confined. After breaching it,
the crew obtains important information that points to an even more deadly place. With
enemy reinforcements approaching, the task force flees under the cover of smoke and
gunfire.
Operation Contingency
Following new intelligence, the next target is a high-security prison complex
called “The Gulag” in a distant location of northern China that is controlled by hostile
forces. The facility, a Cold War relic, is currently being used to house an important
individual with important knowledge of the ongoing conflict. A joint special operations
force attacks the gulag from the air, storming the prison despite severe weather and
enemy fire. The interior is a complex of dark passageways, fortified cells, and heavily
armed guards. Gunfights occur as the task force proceeds through the complex,
eventually breaking into the inner cellblock. With time running out and enemy
reinforcements approaching, the task force find and retrieve the prisoner, fleeing the
crumbling facility just as backup arrives.
In the cold expanse of Russia, a secret international task force conducts a highrisk penetration deep behind enemy lines. To uncover and intercept a launch facility
suspected of storing missiles capable of destroying global cities. The task force goes
quietly through snow-covered woodlands and ice waterways, using stealth and precise
timing to avoid patrols and remove guards. When the task force reached the facility,
they were heavy under fire by immense enemy forces but despite that, they still
achieved their extraction.
10
Just in the harbor of the facility, they’ve infiltrated a nuclear submarine
controlled by Russia and lunched a nuclear warhead towards the eastern seaboard of
the United States. This reveals that the nuclear weapon detonated in the US was in
fact a weapon launched by the U.S joint task force to detonate an EMP (Electromagnetic Pulse) to disable enemy forces and weaken them so that the US rangers
can counter attack and take back the eastern seaboard from the invading Russian
forces.
Hunter Killer
In the heart of New York City, the war comes home. Amid collapsing
skyscrapers and burning streets, U.S. forces battle to reclaim Manhattan from a largescale Russian assault. Chaos dominates the skyline as Russian electronic warfare
cripple’s communications and air support. A specialized counterterrorism unit is
deployed to the financial area to disable a powerful jamming device positioned atop
the New York Stock Exchange. Fighting through destroyed office skyscrapers and
rubble-filled streets, the team arrives at the target and disables the jammer. This clears
the path for US airpower to reclaim control of the city. The operation marks the turning
point in the struggle for New York, as the tide begins to turn back in favor of American
soldiers. With the jamming tower gone, the focus switches to New York Harbor. A
Russian nuclear submarine lies beneath the waters, ready to unleash a strike on the
Eastern Seaboard. Delta Force and Navy SEALs launched a coordinated operation to
intercept the vessel before it fires. In a series of difficult, close-quarters conflicts
beneath the stormy Atlantic, the operatives quietly breach the submarine and
neutralize its crew. The submarine's missile systems have been altered and directed
at the invading fleet, leveling the playing field in the harbor. As the submarine falls
behind them, the team members escape into the night, having barely escaped
disaster.
11
Turbulence
In the skies over Eastern Europe, the Russian government attempts to steer
the world away from global conflict. A diplomatic flight carrying the Russian president
Vladimir Putin heads to a peace summit in Germany. But diplomacy never reaches its
destination. Mid-flight, the aircraft is hijacked by the Ultranationalist. Guards inside the
plane engage the attackers in a desperate defense, while chaos happens in the
pressurized cabin. As the plane spirals out of control, an intense firefight breaks out in
zero gravity conditions. The hijackers succeed in abducting the president, altering the
political landscape of the war and shattering hopes of peace.
Black Tuesday
A rogue US task force resurfaces in India to investigate leads on an
international weapons network. Intelligence leads to a string of suspect cargo
shipments originating in Mumbai, which may be linked to the architect of recent
worldwide assaults. The track leads to London. A tactical reaction team from the UK's
elite counterterrorism force the Special Air Service (SAS) is dispatched to intercept
suspected cargo at the city's freight yard. Intelligence verifies the arrival of containers
related to international arms trafficking. The team launches a nighttime raid on the train
depot, battling a well-armed terrorist cell in a series of firefights around the industrial
environment. But the operation takes a terrible turn. A cargo truck escapes the depot
and rushes through the center of Westminster. The unit rushes to intercept it, dreading
the worst.
On a seemingly ordinary day in London, as a truck parked on a busy street
detonates unexpectedly, it becomes clear that the intercepted cargo was part of a
larger biological attack. The explosion heralds the beginning of a horrifying new phase
in the war, one in which human lives are no longer collateral, but the primary goal. The
globe watches in fear as the true scope of the enemy's scheme begins to unfold.
12
The Eye of the Storm
The war advances to mainland Europe, with Russian forces launching a fullscale assault on Hamburg, Germany. In the midst of the chaos, the vice president is
trapped behind enemy lines during the attack, putting US military command at risk.
Delta Force units have been deployed to the ruined city to launch a rescue operation.
While moving toward the fallen convoy, the forces encounter intense resistance as
they navigate through damaged towns and war-torn industrial zones. Air support offers
cover while ground forces fight block by block to remove the primary target. Despite
the intensity of the battle, the evacuation is successful, preventing a major political
disaster and maintaining morale during a critical period of the war.
In France, Russian forces continue their advance across Europe. Intelligence
points to the presence of a key bomb maker in Paris, one responsible for arming recent
chemical attacks. A joint operation between Delta Force and French special units
GIGN is launched to capture him. The operatives fight fiercely in the capital's streets
and subway tunnels, surrounded by collapsed buildings and blazing debris. After
intensive urban combat, the target is captured but at a high cost. The capture is a
significant step forward in the search for the mastermind behind the assaults, revealing
the scope of the plot's spread throughout Western Europe. The captured bomb maker
must be extracted under intense fire. As the city reels from repeated attacks, Delta
Force soldiers work with armored divisions and air assistance to transport a high-value
detainee through the combat zone. Enemy forces approach from all directions,
unleashing counterattacks with tanks, infantry, and explosives. The extraction vehicle
moves onward over an echo of gunshots and crumbling buildings. Using precision air
strikes and synchronized artillery fire, the force clears a way to an alternate evacuation
location.
Dust to Dust
By the final months of World War III, it was evident that the fight had expanded
well beyond boundaries and treaties. Cities were craters. Governments ruled from
bunkers. Communications have fallen apart into static. Despite the chaos, one goal
remained unfulfilled, the complete elimination of the Ultranationalist war machine.
13
NATO launched the largest deployment of Western military since World War II.
Thousands of planes, drones, and tank divisions plowed across charred territory along
the Moscow. As Western forces advanced on the Kremlin, Loyalist informants revealed
the location of the bunker, a deactivated Soviet-era command center beneath the
Ministry of Defense. When the Allied team reached the lower levels, the Russian
President was discovered alive, but in a critical state, bound and surrounded by a
kill switch wired to nuclear weapons. In a moment of dangerous precision, the Allied
operators eliminated the last Ultranationalist commanders while securing the Russian
President. The command codes were delivered to Loyalist forces, who immediately
halted all nuclear deployments and handed over strategic assets. With the President
recovered and the Kremlin retaken, the Russian military fractured. Most conventional
units surrendered. The Ultranationalist faction, now leaderless and scattered, was
officially disbanded.
Viva Victory
In the aftermath of the war, Russia and the NATO states exhausted their
resources and saw much of their infrastructure and cities destroyed. As they focused
on rebuilding their ruins and recovering their weakened economies, global power
dynamics shifted toward countries that remained largely unaffected particularly rising
powers in Asia and South America.
Absolute Power
In this scenario, the "ash to ash, dust to dust" theory represents the cyclical
nature of global dominance, in which dominant powers eventually fall, often harshly,
and new ones emerge from the ruins. This theory suggests that large shifts in global
power dynamics are rarely peaceful. Instead, they are frequently formed during largescale warfare, such as a world war. This viewpoint is supported by history, for example,
World War I saw the fall of empires such as the Austro-Hungarian and Ottoman, whilst
World War II shattered European colonial dominations and change in the US-Soviet
bipolar order. When the Cold War ended, the United States stood alone as the world's
superpower.
14
Within this framework, the current global order cannot be easily restructured
without a similar event, implying that another world war or global-scale conflict may be
necessary to realign the global power structure in favor of new or emerging states.
This theory also implies that many geopolitical tensions and conflicts are not
entirely organic or state-driven. They are frequently influenced or even orchestrated
by covert organizations with strategic goals. These unseen actors, which might include
intelligence agencies, ideological networks, economic elites, and transnational secret
groups, play an indirect but significant influence in shaping world politics. By inciting
violence, destabilizing regions, or manipulating political outcomes, such organizations
indirectly contribute to the conditions that allow for large power transitions.
Ashes of War
The contemporary geopolitical landscape is marked by a complex web of
escalating regional conflicts, covert operations, and the resurgence of large-scale
warfare that threatens global stability. From the volatile Russo-Ukrainian and IsraeliPalestinian crises to the India-Pakistan tensions and contested South China Sea,
these flashpoints reveal deep-rooted rivalries intertwined with modern strategic
alliances and non-state actors. The “ash to ash, dust to dust” theory underscores the
harsh reality that significant shifts in world power often arise not from diplomacy but
through cataclysmic wars that reshape international orders. As covert networks
manipulate conflicts and illicit arms flow exacerbate violence, the potential for a global
conflagration grows, signaling a new era where emerging powers may rise from the
ruins of the old. Ultimately, this cyclical pattern of destruction and renewal
demonstrates that the pursuit of absolute power is an enduring force, perpetually
rewriting the balance of nations in the ashes of war.
15
References
ACLED (2025). Global conflicts double over the past five years.
https://acleddata.com/conflict-index/
Alster, P. P. (2013). The truth about Hamas’ smuggling tunnels.
https://www.crif.org/fr/tribune/truth-about-hamas-smuggling-tunnels/35395
Beltran, S., & Beltran, S. (2025). No more South China Sea ‘flip-flopping’?
Philippines
plans
long-term
post-Marcos’s
strategy.
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/politics/article/3309814/no-more-flipflopping-philippines-plans-long-term-south-china-sea-strategy
Best Ranger (n.d.). United States Army. https://www.army.mil/ranger/
Cartwright, M., & Netchev, S. (2025). The causes of WWII.
https://www.worldhistory.org/article/2409/the-causes-of-wwii/
East
Coast
States
(n.d.).
East
Coast
2025.
https://worldpopulationreview.com/state-rankings/east-coast-states
Guay, T. (n.d.). Where do Israel and Hamas get their weapons? The Conversation.
https://theconversation.com/where-do-israel-and-hamas-get-their-weapons220762
EBSCO. (n.d.). Gulag.
https://www.ebsco.com/research-starters/history/gulag
Kimball, D. (2024). Who is really “Gambling with World War III”?
https://www.armscontrol.org/act/2025-04/focus/who-really-
gambling-world-
war-iii
Rowlands, L. (2025). Israel kills 60 in Gaza; Russia, China, UK reject
aid plan.
US-Israeli
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/liveblog/2025/5/14/live-israel-
attacks-gaza-
hospitals-as-trump-says-working-to-end-war-soon
Sharma, Y. (2025). ‘No guardrails’: How India-Pakistan combat obliterated old
red
lines. https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2025/5/13/no- guardrails-how-indiapakistan-combat-obliterated-old-red-lines
Library of Congress (n.d.). Stars and Stripes: The American Soldiers' Newspaper of
World War I, 1918 to 1919. https://www.loc.gov/collections/stars-andstripes/articles-and-essays/a-worldFiveable
at-war/timeline-1914-1921/
(n.d.). key term - Total War Strategy. https://library.fiveable.me/key-
terms/apush/total-war-strategy
16
Welle,
D.
(2016).
The
Middle
East
arms
trade
and
Eastern
Europe.
https://www.dw.com/en/eastern-europe-and-the-lucrative-middle-east-armstrade/a-19459840
Wolkov, N., et al. (2025). Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 13, 2025.
https://understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russianassessment-may-13-2025
17
offensive-campaign-