History of Formation and Development I. The Early Stage of Vietnam's Stock Market History: 1996 – 2000 On November 28th, 1996, when the State Securities Commission (Ủy ban Chứng khoán Nhà nước) was established, it marked the beginning of Vietnam’s stock market history. However, the Vietnamese stock market was officially launched under Decree No. 48/CP issued by the Government in 1998. On July 20th 2000, the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange Trading Centre was established (Trung tâm Giao dịch Chứng khoán TP. Hồ Chí Minh). The VN-Index, which serves as an indicator of the general performance and health of Vietnam’s stock market, was launched at the same time. Until July 28, 2000, the first trading session took place with only two public firms: REE (Refrigeration Electrical Engineering) and SAM (SAM Holdings). At that time, trading was held twice a week. ⇒ This marked a significant milestone, signaling the beginning of Vietnam’s stock market era. I have more information for you: In 2007, the government renamed the Ho Chi Minh City Stock Exchange Trading Centre to the Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange (HOSE), which is the name you often see today. How many stock exchanges are there in Vietnam? HOSE (Ho Chi Minh Stock Exchange): Established in 2000, the largest exchange, listing large-cap companies. HNX (Hanoi Stock Exchange): Established in 2005, smaller in scale, mainly for small and medium-sized enterprises. UPCoM (Unlisted Public Company Market): Launched in 2009 for companies not yet officially listed. Stocks delisted from HOSE/HNX may be moved here. II. The period from 2001 – 2010 During this period, Vietnam's stock market history witnessed several impressive milestones. However, at the same time, there were also many significant volatilities in Vietnam's stock market, which made many people become millionaires but some went bankrupt. 2001–2005: The familiarization period, market still small 2005: The stock market operated steadily but was not yet vibrant. Market capitalization only accounted for about 1% of GDP. The Vietnam Securities Depository (VSD) was established. The Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) was created, marking the presence of two stock exchanges operating in parallel. 2006–2007: Period of Strong Growth 2006: Vietnam stock market boom gains momentum, increased speculation and foreign capital inflows. Gains of circa 150% in 2006. Vinamilk’s stock listing helped HOSE’s market capitalization double in just one day. An additional 74 companies were listed on HOSE. Market capitalization increased from VND 7.4 trillion to VND 148 trillion. The VN-Index reached 752 points, a 144% increase compared to the previous year. 2007: Trading hours were extended, making it more convenient for investors. On March 12, 2007, the VN-Index hit a historical peak of 1,170.67 points. Market capitalization rose from 22% of GDP (2006) to 40% of GDP (2007). The IPO wave of state-owned enterprises (such as Bảo Việt, Vietcombank, etc.) was a key factor pushing the index higher. 2008–2009: Collapse and Adjustment 2008: The global financial crisis caused the VN-Index to drop by 66%, falling to 316 points. Market capitalization on HOSE shrunk by VND 195 trillion, marking the darkest period in the market’s history. 2009: The UPCoM (Unlisted Public Companies Market) was launched on June 24, 2009, providing a platform for companies that didn’t meet the listing requirements for HOSE/HNX. Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX) handles bond trading. III. The period from 2011 – 2014 2011 The Vietnamese government devalued its currency amid ongoing inflationary pressures. The economy and stock market remained under strain. 2012 On February 6, 2012, The VN30 Index was officially launched, consisting of the 30 largest-cap stocks listed on the HOSE. This index aimed to better reflect the overall performance of leading companies on the market. The settlement period for stock trading was shortened from T+4 to T+3, meaning investors would receive their purchased stocks or funds from selling stocks within 3 days, instead of 4. This helped improve liquidity and transaction efficiency. 2013 The effects of past distorted lending practices - especially in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), the property sector, and banks - continued to weigh on the stock market. On July 22, 2013, the trading hours on HOSE were extended until 3:00 PM. Shortly after, on July 29, 2013, HNX trading hours were extended similarly. The market also saw the introduction of new order types, such as market orders and ATC (At the Close) orders, contributing to more flexibility and modern trading practices. 2014 - The stock market began to stabilize after several turbulent years. The government took proactive steps to address issues in the banking sector, leading to a significant decline in inflation. Additionally, the HOSE Index and various sub-indices were introduced to offer better tools for tracking market performance. Total mobilised capital so far is estimated at over 295,000 trillion VND. During the 20102015 period, mobilisation increased more than five-times compared to 2004-2009. The period from 2015 to 2024: 2015 Relaxation of foreign ownership caps on certain companies. The Vietnam stock market hit a peak in early 2018 after almost doubling in the space of 2018 2 years. Export and trade balance story shows great improvement. FDI picking up. Market suffers a correction later in the year. 2019 Launch of government bond futures contract. 2020 Strong bounce back in Vietnam stock market after covid crash, led by surge in domestic retail interest. 2021 Vietnam stock market boom since covid crash continues with continued low interest rates, despite Vietnam being hard hit from covid delta variant. Whilst the Vietnam stock market had a terrible 2022, falling almost 35% if measured by the benchmark in USD terms, it has resulted in seriously cheap valuations. On a trailing 2022 P/E ratio basis for example, the VN-Index finished the year trading at circa 10 times earnings. The Vietnamese stock market in 2023 showed resilience and recovery. The VN-Index closed at 1,129.93 points, up 12% from the start of the year, with a peak growth of over 40% compared to November 2022. Key drivers included lower interest rates, controlled 2023 inflation, and public investments. Notable events included the VN-Index's strong midyear rally, VinFast's Nasdaq listing, and the launch of a corporate bond trading platform. Despite challenges, the market's stability and attractive valuations highlighted its potential for long-term growth. The Vietnamese stock market in 2024 experienced pivotal changes and growth. The VNIndex rose nearly 12%, driven by legislative reforms like the revised Securities Law and 2024 Circular 68, which boosted transparency and foreign investor participation. Tech stocks surged, while foreign investors recorded a historic sell-off. Key events included cybersecurity incidents, high-profile scandals, and a rebound in the corporate bond market. Despite challenges, the market showed resilience and progress toward emerging market status. Besides the stock market, does Vietnam have a bond market? Although the bond market in Vietnam was around in the early 2000s when the stock market got going, it was 2009 when it gained momentum. This was when bond trading moved to the Hanoi Stock Exchange (HNX). The corporate bond market is still relatively small, as government bonds account for circa 80-85% of bonds outstanding. After around 10 years of government bond trading on the HNX, government bonds grew to over 30% of GDP. That is a long way from the early 2000s when it was less than 5% of GDP. For a long time the bond market focused largely on shorter dated tenors. In the last few years, it is making steps on further development such as benchmark 10-15 year issues and government bond futures contracts. Vietnam's Bond Market in 2024: Annual Report Overview The Vietnamese bond market in 2024 demonstrated resilience and growth, driven by regulatory reforms, increased investor confidence, and macroeconomic stability. Both government and corporate bond markets showed significant activity, reflecting the market's recovery and potential for long-term development. Government Bond Market: Issuance: The State Treasury issued VND 80,229 billion in government bonds during the first quarter, achieving 63% of the quarterly plan and over 20% of the annual target. Tenors: Bonds with 10- and 15-year tenors dominated, accounting for the majority of issuance. Trading: Outright transactions surged by 85.1% month-over-month in March, reaching VND 162,412 billion, while repo transactions rose 31.6% to VND 81,660 billion. Corporate Bond Market: Issuance: Corporate bond issuance totaled VND 455 trillion for the year, marking a 32% year-over-year increase. Real estate and banking sectors led the market. Secondary Market: Trading value of privately issued corporate bonds increased by 51.8% in March, with commercial banks being the most active participants. Regulatory Reforms: New regulations improved transparency and quality, restoring investor confidence. Macroeconomic Factors: Inflation: Core inflation remained stable at 2.76%, while headline inflation was 3.97% year-over-year in March. FDI: Disbursed foreign direct investment (FDI) reached USD 6.17 billion, up 13.4% year-over-year, with manufacturing and real estate attracting the most capital. Public Investment: Disbursement of public investment capital reached VND 89,874 billion, equivalent to 13.67% of the annual plan. ⇒Analysis: The bond market's performance in 2024 reflects a robust recovery from previous challenges. Government bonds provided stability, while corporate bonds showed dynamic growth, particularly in the real estate and banking sectors. Regulatory reforms played a crucial role in enhancing market transparency and attracting both domestic and foreign investors. ⇒Conclusion: Vietnam's bond market in 2024 showcased resilience and growth, supported by macroeconomic stability and regulatory improvements. The market's recovery and increased activity highlight its potential as a key financing channel for the economy. Moving forward, continued reforms and investor confidence will be critical for sustaining this momentum and achieving emerging market status. SIGNIFICANT RECORDS OF THE VIETNAM STOCK MARKET IN THE PAST 2006: Vietnam's stock market broke through when Vinamilk was listed on the stock exchange, helping the market capitalization of HOSE to double in one day. Besides, there are 74 new enterprises listed on HOSE, helping the market capitalization increase from 7,400 billion VND to 148,000 billion VND. The VN-Index rose to 752 points, up 144% after a year. 2008: The darkest year in the history of Vietnam's stock market, when the VN-Index ended with a decrease of 66%, falling to 316 points due to the terrible impact of the global financial crisis and peak inflation. 2010: Set a record for the number of new listed companies with 81 shares IPO on HOSE. Besides, the number of securities companies also reached a record of 102. 2017: A year filled with new records when a series of numbers continuously "peaked". The VNIndex increased by 48% to 984 points; market capitalization increased by more than 70%, and the total value of the foreign investor portfolio was more than 31 billion USD. 2018: The VN-Index surpassed the old peak after 10 years and set a new peak of 1,204 points. 2020: The Vietnamese stock market experienced sharp declines due to the impact of the COVID19 pandemic, which the World Health Organization (WHO) had to declare a global health emergency. The VN-Index fell from around 960 points (early January 2020) to below 660 points by the end of March 2020 — a drop of over 30%. This was one of the sharpest declines since the 2008 global financial crisis. By the end of 2020, the VN-Index had climbed back above 1,100 points, surpassing pre-pandemic levels. 2021: Vietnam stock market boom since the COVID-19 crash continues with continued low interest rates, despite Vietnam being hard hit from covid delta variant. HOSE achieved a new record of trading volume and liquidity in just one day, bringing the total trading value of the whole market today to 51.97 trillion dong (equivalent to 2.26 billion USD). 2023: On August 15, 2023, shares of VinFast officially began trading on the Nasdaq Global Select Market (U.S.), following the completion of its business combination with Black Spade Acquisition Co on August 14, 2023. This event marks the first time a Vietnamese company has gone public on an official U.S. stock exchange (Nasdaq) through a direct backdoor listing. Besides that, the secondary trading market for privately placed corporate bonds officially began operations on July 19, 2023, at the Hanoi Stock Exchange. This is considered an important milestone in the development of Vietnam’s corporate bond market, moving toward greater transparency, stability, and sustainability. VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET’S CHARACTERISTICS: 1. Functions of Vietnam's stock market Vietnam's stock market has 5 main operating functions: 1. Raising investment capital for the Vietnamese economy: The stock market acts as a bridge connecting businesses in need of capital with investors looking to allocate funds. 2. Provide an investment environment for the public: The stock market offers the public a platform to invest savings in diverse assets such as stocks, bonds, and ETFs. 3. Create liquidity for securities: Liquidity ensures that investors can buy and sell securities easily without significant price fluctuations. 4. Evaluation of business activities: Stock prices and performance provide a transparent assessment of a company’s financial health and future potential. 5. Create an environment to support the Government in implementing macroeconomic policies: The stock market serves as a tool for the government to achieve broader economic goals, such as growth, inflation control, and employment generation. 2. Features of the Stock Market 1. No financial intermediaries There is no financial intermediary between the buyer and the seller, they both directly participate in the market and transact with each other. 2. Seems to be a Perfect Competitive Market Anyone can freely participate in the stock market; the price of shares is formed based on the relationship of supply and demand without any imposition on the price. 3. Is a continuous market After the securities are issued, investors can buy and resell many times. The stock market guarantees the liquidity of products held by investors. 3. Participants in Vietnam's stock market 1. Issuer of securities such as the Government, Listed Company in the aim to carry out fundraising activities. 2. Individual and Institutional Investors are participants in the trading of securities on the stock market. 3. Organizations carry out business activities include Securities Company, Investment Fund & Financial Intermediaries. 4. Organizations related to the stock market such as Stock Exchanges, Vietnam Association of Securities Business (VASB) and Vietnam Securities Depository Center (VSD), et cetera 4. Products available on the Stock Market Stocks, bonds, fund certificates. Warrants, covered warrants, right to buy shares, depository certificates. Derivative securities. And other types of securities prescribed by the Government: o Green Bonds (Trái phiếu xanh) Description: Bonds issued specifically to finance environmentally friendly projects like renewable energy, waste management, or green infrastructure. Example in VN: Mekong Delta Green Bond Initiative: Bonds issued to finance flood mitigation and sustainable agriculture projects. / VietinBank Green Bonds: Issued to support renewable energy and eco-friendly industrial projects. o Social Bonds (Trái phiếu xã hội) Description: Bonds issued to fund projects with positive social outcomes, such as affordable housing, healthcare, or education. Example in VN: Social bonds issued by government agencies to support post-COVID-19 economic recovery, including low-interest housing loans. o Infrastructure Bonds (Trái phiếu cơ sở hạ tầng) Description: Bonds designated for funding large-scale infrastructure projects. Example in VN: Ho Chi Minh City Urban Railway Bond: Issued to finance metro projects like Metro Line No. 1. VIETNAMESE STOCK MARKET IN 2024 AND 2025 I. Vietnamese stock market in 2024 At December 28, the Securities Journalists Club announced 10 outstanding stock events in 2024. 1. Circular 68 Officially Issued – A Key Step Toward Upgrading Market Status On September 18, 2024, the Ministry of Finance issued Circular 68/2024/TT-BTC, amending and supplementing four previous circulars. A significant highlight of this circular is allowing foreign institutional investors to place buy orders without having 100% of the funds available (non-free funding). This move is expected to enhance market liquidity and bring Vietnam closer to meeting the criteria for upgrading its market status from frontier to secondary emerging market by FTSE Russell. 2. Market Performance Affected by External Factors In 2024, the VN-Index grew nearly 12%, with most of this increase occurring in the first quarter. The remaining three quarters saw the market fluctuate around the 1,300-point level. This performance contrasts with impressive macroeconomic growth, as GDP in Q3 2024 rose by 7.4%, and corporate profits increased by 18.8% year-on-year. The market's underperformance was primarily due to external factors, including the strengthening of the US dollar and uncertainties following the US presidential election. 3. Cyberattacks on VNDirect Securities and PVOIL On March 24, 2024, VNDirect Securities' IT system was attacked by hackers, leading to data encryption and a disconnection from trading exchanges until April 1. This incident damaged the company's reputation and posed risks to investors. Subsequently, on April 2, PVOIL's system was also attacked, affecting various operations, including electronic invoicing and website services. 4. Foreign Investors Record Net Selling Foreign investors recorded a historic net selling volume in 2024, totaling approximately 20 trillion VND. This significant outflow was attributed to global liquidity tightening and concerns over the Vietnamese market's valuation. Despite this, foreign capital remained a crucial component of the market's liquidity. 5. VN-Index Reaches New High In early 2024, the VN-Index achieved a new all-time high, surpassing 1,300 points for the first time. This milestone reflected investor optimism and strong corporate earnings, particularly in the banking and real estate sectors. 6. Introduction of Non-Free Funding for Foreign Investors The implementation of non-free funding, as part of Circular 68, allowed foreign institutional investors to place buy orders without having 100% of the funds available. This measure aimed to enhance market liquidity and align Vietnam's market practices with international standards. 7. Government's Commitment to Market Development The Vietnamese government reaffirmed its commitment to developing the stock market by implementing policies to improve market transparency, enhance investor protection, and attract foreign investment. These efforts are part of the broader strategy to position Vietnam as a key emerging market in Southeast Asia. 8. Increased Retail Investor Participation Retail investors continued to play a significant role in the Vietnamese stock market, accounting for a substantial portion of trading volumes. Their increased participation was driven by greater financial literacy, improved access to trading platforms, and a growing interest in equity investments. 9. Rise of Environmental, Social, and Governance (ESG) Investing There was a noticeable shift towards ESG investing, with more funds and investors focusing on companies with strong environmental, social, and governance practices. This trend aligns with global investment patterns and reflects a growing awareness of sustainable investing in Vietnam. 10. Technological Advancements in Trading Platforms Advancements in technology led to the enhancement of trading platforms, offering investors improved user experiences, faster transaction speeds, and better access to market data. These technological improvements contributed to increased market efficiency and investor satisfaction. II. Vietnamese stock market in 2025 1.1. Trade tensions and the risk of U.S. tariff policies At the beginning of 2025, the Vietnamese stock market faced significant volatility due to both domestic and international economic factors. In particular, the announcement by the U.S. of a 46% tariff on Vietnamese exports sent shockwaves through the market. This led to a dramatic 13.1% drop in the VN-Index in just the first five trading sessions of April 2025, pushing the index from 1,305.36 points to 1,132.79 points. As of mid-April, the VN-Index had fallen by 10.4% year-to-date, marking its lowest closing level in the past year. Despite this sharp decline, various sectors showed divergent performance. Diversified industries saw a strong +24.9% growth, largely due to positive contributions from Vingroup and related stocks. On the other hand, residential real estate also performed relatively well, with a slight -0.4% decrease, thanks to the steady performance of key players in the sector. Conversely, sectors such as information technology (-30.8%), retail (-23.3%), and energy (-18.4%) were among the worst performers, largely due to the uncertain economic environment and high stock valuations from the previous year. → This reflected deep concerns about instability in international trade relations, especially as Vietnam has become increasingly dependent on the U.S. for its major export sectors (wood, textiles, seafood, etc.). 1.2. Three tariff scenarios and market reactions Maybank Investment Bank (MSVN) recently released its April 2025 strategy report, warning of the negative economic impact of tariffs. The report outlines three tariff scenarios and adjusts its VN-Index target accordingly: Scenario 1 (Best case): Tariffs of 20–25%, with Vietnam quickly entering negotiations and restructuring industries to meet U.S. demands. Scenario 2 (Neutral): Tariffs over 30%, affecting some sectors but allowing time to adjust. It will place Vietnam on par with Japan, South Korea, and the EU, while maintaining its position as an attractive destination for foreign direct investment (FDI). Scenario 3 (Worst case – current reality): 46% tariffs applied broadly, forcing exporters to halt shipments or redirect markets, causing a sharp shock to GDP growth and employment. The stock market reacted harshly due to fears of a cascading impact: reduced exports → lower corporate revenue → GDP slowdown → pressure on currency and interest rates. 1.3. Domestic policy responses: Mitigating challenges and restoring investor confidence In response, the Vietnamese Government has shown strong determination to support the economy and stabilize the stock market through: Promoting a policy of “transparency, cooperation, and sustainable development” (minh bạch, đồng hành và phát triển bền vững) for listed companies. Implementing measured monetary easing to support market liquidity. Enhancing transparency in market operations through stronger roles by the State Securities Commission, the Stock Exchange, and the banking system. (Ủy ban Chứng khoán Nhà nước, Sở Giao dịch Chứng khoán và hệ thống ngân hàng) These efforts have helped sustain investor confidence, even as the market remains cautious and in “bottom-fishing” mode. 1.5. Market Reaction and Recovery Outlook Despite the negative impact, the Vietnamese stock market still had some positive factors supporting its recovery. Leading industries, especially in banking and real estate, were expected to maintain a 10–11% growth in post-tax profits during the first quarter of 2025. Experts forecast that the VN-Index would soon find a "balance point" in the range of 1,140–1,165 points before recovering to 1,285 points, based on low valuations and the potential for a trade agreement between Vietnam and the U.S. 1.6. Investment Advice for Current Investors Prioritize defensive stocks: Invest in companies with solid financial foundations that are less affected by economic fluctuations. Take advantage of opportunities to accumulate leading stocks: Use the adjustment period to buy shares of companies with long-term growth potential. Monitor policies and trade negotiations: Stay updated on economic policies and trade negotiation progress to adjust investment strategies in a timely manner. Be cautious and patient: Avoid emotional decisions and maintain a long-term investment strategy. 1.7. Personal Finance Management Lessons The market volatility of 2025 underscores the importance of personal finance management. Investors should: Diversify their investment portfolio: Avoid concentrating investments in one asset or sector to reduce risk. Reduce the use of financial leverage: Limit borrowing to invest during times of market volatility. Maintain an emergency fund: Ensure sufficient financial resources to respond to emergencies. Monitor and adjust financial plans: Keep track of market information and adjust investment strategies accordingly.
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