PPM | Stock Investment Project Report
Eryka Khoirun Nisak (143221050) | Class N
08/10/2023
I started the investment project on 6th October 2023 and bought the stock of Adaro Minerals
Indonesia (ADMR) for 3 lots at the price of 1,235 in the intention of trading. Here are two
kinds of analysis regarding my action:
1. The Fundamental Analysis.
o Firstly, I looked at the industry this company is in and it turns out it is engaged
in the coal mining industry. As of 2023, many developed countries, that have
been promoting green/renewable energy, faced difficulties in fulfilling their
needs of energy only using the renewable ones. Cosquently, during 2023, the
demand for coal increases significantly, even reportedly hitting all-time high.
With the high demand for coal mining during the year, I think It’s reasonable
to buy ADMR’S stocks to hold them as equity investments intended for
trading. Many investors, must also had high expectations towards AMDR’s
performance because of the high demand for coal in 2023. Even though, after
all, many analysts still stand in their stance about the fall of the coal mining
industries in several years to come. I think it’s still justified to buy ADMR’s
stocks as trading investment to gain some margins and sell them in the near
beginning of 2024 or at the year the coal industry face even slight loss of
value.
o Secondly, after I analyzed the potential growth of the industry, I’m figuring
out the position of ADMR in the market. It turned out that ADMR is one of the
market leaders in the energy industry with a market capitalization of
Rp57.848T surpassing PT Perusahaan Gas Negara Tbk (PGAS) with a market
capitalization of Rp261.81T and PT Bukit Asam Tbk (PTBA) with a market
capitalization of Rp26.535T.
o Thirdly, to assess the financial performance of AMDR, I looked upon its
interrim financial statement that was posted on the website of IDX to test
several financial ratios. In my case, because I intended to hold the stock for
trading purpose, I will be focusing more on the profitability aspect of ADMR.
a. ROE = 82,74%. This rate is classified in the range of “acceptable rates”
among the competitors within the same industry, for example, PTBA with
ROE of 339,09% and PGAS with ROE of 79,51%. ADMR’s ROE that
doesn’t seem so impressive is justified because ADMR is the child
company of PT Adaro Indonesia Energy Tbk (ADRO), thus making a
significant share of NI generated by ADMR is attributable to ADRO. On
the other hand, this will not happen in the case of PTBA which has very
impressive NI.
b. Profit Margin = 34,90%. ADMR’s profit margin rate is considered in the
higher range of industry, because compared to PTBA with profit margin
rate of 14,08% and PGAS with profit margin rate of 10,17%, the gap is
high. This indicates that ADMR can optimize their cost thus making the NI
is significant compared to its sales.
2. Technical Analysis
My reason to buy ADMR stocks also come from the graphical analysis I did because
the stock is facing an uptrend where there is a higher high after a higher high, and so
on.
As we see, on the 6th of October, the stock starts to make a higher high after having a
downtrend. At this price, I decided to buy the stocks so I could make up some
margins. However, as of today, I think I still going to hold the stock until the
beginning of 2024 because usually, all kinds of stocks increase in value at the end of
each year.
03/11/2023
At the time, something came to my mind to buy additional shares. Then, I looked upon the
industry in which I want to invest in. I thought it was great to invest in the industrial sector as
the industry that is engaging in so many fields of business generally. Thus, at this day, I
purchased 3 lots of PT Astra International Tbk (ASII)’s stock at the price of 5,900. Same
as my motive to purchase stocks of ADMR, I intended to trade, not to hold/collect. I may
regret this decision now knowing that my prediction didn’t turn out so well. However, I
would like to make some justifications for why I thought it was a great idea to purchase this
stock.
1. Fundamental Analysis
o The industrial sector contributes a big share of Indonesia’s total GDP from
time to time. As we know, the industrial sector deals with manufacturing,
shipping, or producing activities as intermediaries. They give added value to
products that are distributed all across the country, which is why the industrial
sector has been going strong in Indonesia; we just tell their power to the
economy with huge-looking-plants that the firms in this industry own. This is
my first reason to buy the stock of ASII.
o ASII is clearly one of the market leaders in the industrial sectors. Retrieved
from finance.yahoo.com, ASII’s market capitalization is 228.732T.
Meanwhile, some other entities such as PT United Tractors Tbk (UNTR) has
only 77.267T of market capitalization and PT Mulia Industrindo Tbk (MLIA)
with only 2.805T of market capitalization.
o Finally, going to the financial performance analysis of ASII. I applied the same
approach as I did for ADMR to ASII because my intention was the same for
these two stocks; to gain margin from trading. In effect, I would focusing my
analysis on some profitability ratios using the interim financial statement (Q3).
a. ROE = 1659%. This rate is considered to be high among the firms in the
same industry. ASII’s ROE has slight differences compared to UNTR’s
ROE that reached 1763%. Moreover, ASII’s ROE is impresive when
compared to MLIA’s ROE that only reached 64%.
b. Profit margin = 14%. Unfortunately, the profit margin of ASII is
outperformed by UNTR that has 17% of profit and when compared to
MLIA that reached profit margin of 12%, ASII’s performance seems kind
of avarage. I wasn’t thinking that this wasn’t a bad sign because I’m still
expecting ASII’s performance will be so well because of huge market
capitalization.
2. Technical Analysis
I think I did a wrong move in placing my buy order of ASII. I did place my
order when the price was pretty high during its downtrend. I miscalculated my
decision because of the sudden increase in price for the past weeks I didn’t really
consider the previous chart correctly. After several days, because the loss gets worse
and worse, I did sell 2 lots of my ASII stocks.
In my opinion, investing in ASII is not entirely bad as we learned that the
fundamental analysis indicates that ASII’s potential for growth is high, but strangely,
it’s not presented quite well in the stock performance. Still, in my opinion, in the longterm, investing in ASII is recommended because of it’s fundamental power and highpaying devidend possibly every-year end. In conclusion, when investing in ASII, I
must have considered to invest for long-term purposes, not trading.
10/11/2023
I wanted to try investing on a long-term basis and started to get attracted by stocks issued by
one of the famous big commercial banks in Indonesia. This is why I placed an order for 3 lots
of the PT Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk (BBNI) at the price of 4,860. This
decision was not made out of impluse but trust and curiousness. I have heard countless times
that investing in any big banks stocks will only give me nothing but gain in returns .So, my
motive to purchase these stocks were to test test the theory and conducting mostly the
fundamental analysis because I plan to hold them for quite long time.
•
Fundamental analysis
Even in 2023, despite the many new digital-based banks pops massively and rapidly,
commercial banks still expect stable growth in the future. Nowadays, commercial
banks are not only engaged in traditional banking business where the transaction can
only be made trhough the office or ATM. Now, there are more options to do
transactions, by using mobile phone, agents, or many other akternatives. Indonesian
commercial banks has adapting their nature to be flexibel and integrated with the
massive use of digitalization.
31/12/2023
Overall, here is my portofolio on Stockbit. I’m expecting to hold my ASII and BBNI stocks
for several years and maybe sell my ADMR stocks in the early 2024 to realize some gains.