Type 1: CROSS EXCHANGE RATE 1.1 Using commodity currency to count cross exchange rate 1.2 Using term currency to count cross exchange rate 1.3 Using a currency working as both a commodity currency and a term currency to count cross exchange rate 1.1 Using commodity currency to count cross exchange rate Inverse exchange rate X/Y = a-b => Y/X = ? - SbidX/Y=a means that a bank wants to buy 1 unit X so they need to sell 1 unit Y. Therefore, the bank sells 1 unit Y so they can buy 1/a unit X => SaskY/X = 1/a - SaskX/Y=b means that when a bank sells 1 unit X, they can buy b unit Y. Therefore, the bank wants to buy 1 unit Y so they have to sell 1/b unit X => SbidY/X = 1/b So if X/Y = a-b, the inverse exchange rate will be Y/X which is equal to 1/b-1/a 1.1 Using commodity currency to count cross exchange rate In the market: X/Y = a/b X/Z = c/d Count the cross exchange rate: Y/Z và Z/Y Using commodity currency to count cross exchange rate In the market: - X/Y = a/b - X/Z = c/d Count: - Y/Z - Z/Y Sbid Y /Z = SbidY /X * Sbid X/Z = 1 c *Sbid X/Z = Sask X/Y b 1 d Sask Y /Z = SaskY/ /X* Sask X/Z= *SaskX/Z = Sbid X/Y a c a Y/Z = b d a => Z / Y = d b c 1.1Using commodity currency to count cross exchange rate ■ Example 1: In the market USD/CHF = 1,1807/74 USD/HKD = 7,7515/85 Count CHF/HKD; HKD/CHF 1.1 Using commodity currency to count cross exchange rate Sbid CHF/HKD = Sbid CHF/USD* Sbid USD/HKD = Sbid CHF/USD*Sbid USD/HKD = (1/1,1874)*7,7515=6,5281 Sask CHF/HKD = Sask CHF/USD*Sask USD/HKD = (1/1,1807)*7,7585= 6,5711 CHF/HKD = 6,5281-6,5711 HKD/CHF = 1/6,5711-1/6,5281 = 0,1521-0,1531 Practice In the market: CHF/USD = 1,1807/74 ; HKD/USD = 7,7515/85 Sbid CHF / HKD = Sbid CHF / USD * Sbid USD / HKD 1 7 , 7515 = = = 6 , 5281 * Sbid USD / HKD Sask USD / CHF 1 ,1874 Sask CHF/ HKD = Sask CHF/ USD * Sask USD / HKD 1 7 , 7585 = = * Sask USD/ HKD Sbid USD/ CHF 1 ,1807 = > = > CHF / HKD = HKD / CHF = 6 , 5281 / 6 , 571 1 1 6 , 571 1 1 6 , 5281 = 6 , 571 1 = 0 ,1521 / 0 ,1531 1.2 Using term currency to count cross exchange rate In the market: X/Z = a/b Y/Z = c/d Count the cross exchange rate: X/Y; Y/X 1.2 Using term currency to count cross exchange rate X/Z = a/b Y/Z = c/d Sbid X /Y = Sbid X /Z * Sbid Z/Y = Sbid X /Z * Sask X/Y = Sask X /Z * SaskZ/Y = SaskX /Z * X /Y = a d b c => Y / X = c b d a 1 a = Sask Y/Z d 1 b = Sbid Y/Z c Practice In the market GBP/USD = 2,0345/15; EUR/USD= 1,4052/40 Sbid GBP / EUR = Sbid GBP / USD * Sbid USD / EUR 2 , 0345 1 = Sbid GBP / USD * = Sask EUR/ USD 1 , 4140 Sask GBP / EUR = Sask GBP/ USD * 1 = Sask GBP/ USD * Sbid EUR / USD => GBP / USD = => USD / GBP 1 , 4388 / 1 , 4528 1 = 1 , 4528 1 1 , 4388 Sask USD / EUR 2 , 0415 = 1 , 4052 = 1 , 4388 = 1 , 4528 = 0 , 6883 / 0 , 6950 1.3 Using a currency working as both a commodity currency and a term currency to count cross exchange rate In the market X/Y = a/b Y/Z = c/d Count the cross exchange rate X/Z; Z/X 1.3 Using a currency working as both a commodity currency and a term currency to count cross exchange rate X/Y = a/b Y/Z = c/d Sbid X/ Z = Sbid X/ Y * Sbid Y / Z = a * c SaskX/Z = SaskX /Y * SaskY/Z = b * d 1 X / Z = a / bd = Z / X = bd 1 > c a c 1.3 Using a currency working as both a commodity currency and a term currency to count cross exchange rate ■ Example 3: In the market: EUR/USD = 1,4052/40 USD/HKD = 7,7515/85 Count the cross exchange rate EUR/HKD; HKD/EUR Practice: Cho biết: EUR/USD = 1,4052/40; USD/HKD = 7,7515/85 Sbid EUR / HKD = = 1 , 4052 * 7 , 7515 Sbid EUR / USD * Sbid USD / HKD = 10 , 8924 Sask EUR/ HKD = Sask EUR / USD = 1 , 4140 * 7 , 7585 = 10 , 9705 = > = > EUR / HKD HKD / EUR * Sask USD/ HKD = 10 , 8924 / 10 , 9705 1 = 10 , 9705 = 0 , 091 1 1 10 , 8924 / 18 Homework: Count the cross exchange rate ■ In the market: GBP/USD = 2,0345/15 USD/SEK = 6,4205/6,5678 USD/NOK = 5,3833/5,4889 USD/DKK = 5,2367/10 EUR/USD = 1,4052/40 USD/CHF = 1,1807/74 USD/HKD = 7,7515/85 ■ Count the cross exchange rate: GBP/NOK; GBP/EUR; EUR/HKD; HKD/SEK; HKD/CHF Type 2: ARBITRAGES Introduction about Arbitrages ■ Finding opportunities and doing arbitrages ■ Applying arbitrages in payment: How does value in a company’s account change after doing transactions? ■ 2- Arbitrages 2.1 Finding opportunities and doing arbitrages 2.1.1 Simple arbitrages 2.1.2 Complicated arbitrages 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Finding opportunities and doing simple arbitrages Step 1: : quoting the same kind of exchange rate in two markets Step 2: Determining the way arbitrageur could do transaction to gain profit if Sask (market X)< Sbid ( market Y), arbitrageur could gain profit from Acbit. 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Finding opportunities and doing simple arbitrages(continuous) - Example 1: ■ Market A: GBP/USD = 2.0315/55 GBP/EUR = 1.4388/28 ■ Market B: USD/GBP = 0.4870/10 USD/EUR = 0.7072/16 Find opportunity to gain profit from doing arbitrage: GBP/USD 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Finding opportunities and doing simple arbitrages - Answer: Market A: - GBP / USD = 2,0315 / 55 1 GBP / USD = 0, 4910 Market B: - Sask GBP / USD (A 1 0, 4870 = 2,0366 / 2,0533 ) = 2,0355 < Sbid GBP/ USD (B = 2,0366) :=> Gain profit 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Complicated arbitrages ■ With an amount of capital in a certain currency, based on information about exchange rate in more than two markets, arbitrageur would sell and buy different currencies listed on markets to gain profit. That is profit from arbitrage. ■ Step 1: Choosing the way of arbitrage: Finding opportunity ■ Step 2: Buying and selling different currencies to gain profit from arbitrage 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Complicated Arbitrages - example: ■ Market 1: EUR/USD = 1,4052/40 ■ Market 2: USD/CHF = 1,1807/74 ■ Market 3: EUR/CHF = 1,6375/49 Mr X has an amount of 150.000 EUR. Do Arbitrage and evaluate the profit from arbitrage with the assumption that there is no fees. 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Complicated Arbitrages – Answer: ■ Way 1: Sell EUR/USD (market 1) -> Sell USD/CHF (market 2) ->Sell CHF/EUR (market 3) ■ Way 2: Sell EUR/CHF (market 1) -> Sell CHF/USD (market 2) ->Sell USD/EUR (market 3) 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Complicated Arbitrages – Answer: Way 1 Sell EUR/USD with Sbid = 1,4052 =>the amount of USD bought is: 150.000 * 1,4052 = 210.780 USD ■ Sell USD/CHF with Sbid = 1,1807 =>The amount of CHF bought is: 210.780 * 1,1807 = 248.867,946 CHF ■ Sell CHF/EUR with Sbid CHF/EUR = 1 /1,6449 = 0,6079 => The amount of EUR bought is 248.867,946 * 0.6079 = 151.286,8244 EUR ■ ■ The profit from Arbitrages is: 151.286,8244 – 150.000 = 1.286,8244 (EUR) 2- Arbitrages 2.1.1 Complicated Arbitrages – Answer: Way 2 Sell EUR/CHF (market 3) with Sbid = 1,6375 =>The amount of CHF is bought:150.000 * 1,6375 = 245.625 CHF ■ Sell CHF/USD with Sbid= CHF/USD = 1/1,1874 = 0,8421 =>The amount of USD is bought: 245.625 * 0,8422 = 206.859,525 USD ■ Sell USD/EUR with Sbid USD/EUR = 1/Db (EUR/USD) = 1 /1,4140 = 0,7072 => The amount of EUR is bought 206.859,525 * 0,7072 = 146.293,865 EUR ■ ■ Profit from Arbitrages is: 146.293,865 – 150.000= - 3706,135 (EUR) => loss from Arbitrage=> do not do arbitrage Type 3:FORWARDS 3.1 FORWARD EXCHANGE RATE – quotation Forward point: Sforward = Sspot ± forward point - POINT ask≥POINT bid: Sforward = Sspot + forward point - POINT ask<POINT bid: Sforward = Sspot – forward point Type 3:FORWARDS 3.1 Forward exchange rate Sfask Sfbid = Sask + = Sbid + Sask * ( T 2 ask− T 1 bid) * N 36 . 000 + T 1 bid*N Sbid * ( T 2 bid− T 1ask)* N 36 . 000 + T 1 ask*N Sbid, Sask: spot exchange rate N: the number of days for forward transaction T2bid: the borrowing interest of currency 2 T1ask: the lending interest of currency 1 Type 3:FORWARDS 3.2 Forwards - Example: In the market: Sspot: USD/CHF = 1,5642/42 S forward-3 months USD/CHF = 1,5856/87 Interest rate forward 3 months(yearly qouted). USD:41/8 – 41/2 CHF: 7 – 71/2 fees: ±1/8 (0.125%) Mr X has the amount of 1.500.000 CHF, how to do forward transaction? Type 3:FORWARDS 3.2 forward – answer: ■ Step 1: Buy USD/CHF with Sask=1,5742 =>the amount of USD bought is: 1.500.000/1,5742=952.864,9473 ■ Step 2: have USD deposit in 3 months with the interest ratet: 41/8 - 1/8=4 (%/year) =>The total amount of USD ( interest included) is: 952.864,9473*(1+90*4/36000)=962.393,5968 Type 3:FORWARDS 3.2 forward – answer: ■ Step 3: Sign the forward contract to sell USD/CHF 3 months with Sforward bid =1,5856 ■ After 3 months, the amount of CHF received is: 962.393,5968*1,5856=1.525.971,287 CHF ■ ■ If have CHF deposit in a bank with the interest rate (7-0.125 = 6,875), the amount of CHF received after 3 months will be: 1.500.000*(1+6,875*90/36.000)=1.525.781,2500 Profit: 1.525.971,287 – 1.525.781,2500 = 190,0371 CHF Type 4: OPTIONS 4.1 Introduction about options 4.2 Buying/selling buying options 4.3 Buying/selling selling options 4.4 Practice Buying/selling buying options- Example ■ A Canadian importing company has to pay 1 million USD in 1 month. The company decided to buy buying option (call option) USD/CAD 1 month with some information in the contract below: - Exercise price 1,2345 CAD= strike - Option fees 0,02 CAD= premium Take an assumption: after 1 month, the spot exchange rate would be in 3 cases: 1. USD/CAD = 1,2821 2. USD/CAD = 1,2345 3. USD/CAD = 1,1904 In which case would the company exercise the contract? And how much CAD would be sold in each case? Buying/selling buying options- Answer Option fees = 1.000.000*0,02=20.000 CAD ■ If the company exercises the contract, the amount of CAD paid (fees included) will be : 1.000.000*1,2345+20.000=1.254.500 CAD case1: USD/CAD=1,2821, the company does not exercise the contract, the amount of CAD pa ■ (fees included) is: 1.000.000*1,2821+20.000=1.302.100 CAD>1.254.500 =>the company will exercise the contract, the amount of CAD paid will be :1.254.500 Case2: USD/CAD = 1,2345= exercise price, so the company could choose either to exercise th ■ contract or not and the amount of CAD paid will be 1.254.500 CAD TH3: USD/CAD=1,1904, the amount of CAD paid (fees included) will be : ■ 1.000.000*1,1904+20.000=1.210.400 CAD <1.254.500 => the company will not exercise the contract, the amount of CAD paid will be 1.210.400 Buying/selling selling options- Example ■ An USA exporting company has to receive an amount of 100.000 GBP in 1 month. The company signs an selling contract GBP/USD in 1 month with the information below: - Exercise price1,60 USD - Option fees 0,04 USD Take an assumption: after 1 month, the spot exchange rate would be in 3 cases: 1. GBP/USD = 1,58 2. GBP/USD = 1,60 3. GBP/USD = 1,64 In which case would the company exercise the contract? And how much USD would be bought in each case? Buying/selling selling options- Answers Option fees = 100.000*0,04=4.000 USD ■ If the company exercises the contract, the amount of USD bought (fees included) will be: ■ 100.000*1,60 - 4.000=156.000 USD Case1: GBP/USD=1,58,when the company does not exercises the contract, the amount of USD bought (fees included) will be 100.000*1,58 - 4.000=154.000 USD<156.000 => In this case, the company exercises the contract, the amount of USD bought (fees included) will be 156.000 TH2: GBP/USD=1,60= exercise price, so the company could choose either to exercise the ■ contract or not and the amount of USD bought will be 156.000USD TH3: GBP/USD=1,64, the amount of USD bought (fees included) will be 100.000*1,64 - ■ 4.000=160.000 USD>156.000 =>In this case the company will not exercise the contract, the amount of USD bought will be Type 5: SWAP - Swap between 2 banks - Swap between a bank and a customer 5. Swap 5.1 Swap between two banks 5.1.1 A bank has an excessive amount of foreign currency and need a fixed amount of an another foreign currency 5.1.2 A bank has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency and need an amount of an another foreign currency 5.1. Swap between 2 banks Sbid +Sask Spot buying : Saverage= 2 Saverage (T2bid- T1ask) N Forward selling: Sswap = Saverage + + T1ask * N 36000 Sbid+ Sask Spot selling: = Saverage = 2 Mua kỳ hạn: Sswap Saverage(T2ask- T1bid) N = Saverage + + T1bid * N 36000 5.1. Swap between 2 banks 5.1.1 A bank needs a fixed amount of foreign currency - Example: ■ Bank A needs 1.000.000 Euro in the next 90 days while they have an excessive amount of USD. How to do swap for bank A? ■ Information in the market: EUR/USD = 1,1235/75 interest rate for 3 months: USD: 4,25 – 4,5 (%) EUR: 5,125 - 5,25 (%) 5.1. Swap between 2 banks 5.1.1 A bank needs a fixed amount of foreign currency - Answer: Step 1: At J+2, Bank A receives 1.000.000 Euro from their partner and sell USD at the present with S average EUR/USD. The amount of USD sold is that: 1.000.000 * 1,1255 = 1.125.500 USD Step 2: At J+2+90, Bank A pays 1.000.000 EUR for their partner and gains backs an amount of USD with Sswap 5.1. Swap between 2 banks 5.1.1 A bank needs a fixed amount of foreign currency - Answer: Sswap EUR/USD = Saverage + Swap fees Saverage(T2bid- T1ask) *90 Sswap EUR/USD= Saverage + 36000 + T1ask* 90 1 ,1255 ( 4 , 25 - 5 , 25 ) 90 = 1 ,1255 + = 1 ,1234 36000 + 5 , 25 * 90 The amount of USD bank A gains back is : 1.000.000*1,1234 = 1.123.400 (USD) 5.1. Swap between 2 banks 5.1.2 A bank has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency. Example: ■ Bank A has an excessive amount of 1.000.000 Euro in the next 90 days while this bank needs to use USD. How to do swap for this bank? ■ The information in the market EUR/USD = 1,1235/75 Interest rate for 3 months: USD: 4,25 – 4,5 (%) EUR: 5,125 - 5,25 (%) 5.1. Swap between 2 banks 5.1.2 A bank has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency. Answer: - Step 1: At J+2, bank A sell 1.000.000 EUR for their partner with Saverage: 1,1235 + 1,1275 = 1,1255 2 The amount of USD bank A receives: 1.000.000*1,1255 = 1.125.500 USD - Step 2: At J+2+90, Bank A receives 1.000.000 EUR from their partner and pays USD with Sswap=1,1237=> the amount of USD, bank A has to pay: 1.000.000*1,1237= 1. 123.700 USD 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2 Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.1 A customer has an excessive amount of foreign currency and need a fixed amount of an another foreign currency 5.2.2 A customer has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency and need an amount of an another foreign currency 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer Spot buying: Sask Forward selling: Sswap = Sask + Sbid (T2bid - T1ask) N 36000 + T1ask* N Spot selling: Sbid Forward buying:Sswap = Sbid + Sask (T2ask - T1bid) N 36000 + T1bid* N 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.1A customer needs a fixed amount of foreign currency - Example: Company X needs 1.000.000 GBP in the next 60 days while they have an excessive amount of USD. How to do swap for company X? ■ The information in the market: GBP/USD = 2,0345/15 Interest rate for 2 months GBP: 9 – 91/8 ; USD: 4 – 41/4 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.1. A customer needs a fixed amount of foreign currency - Answer: - Step 1: Tại J+2, this company receives 1.000.000 GBP from their partner and sell USD at the present with Sask GBP/USD = 2,0415 The amount of USD sold is: 1.000.000 * 2,0415 = 2.041.500 - Step 2: At J+2+60, this company pays 1.000.000 GBP for their partner and gains back USD with Dswap 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.1. A customer needs a fixed amount of foreign currency - Answer: Sbid = 2,0345; Sask = 2,0415 T1ask(GBP) = 9,125 * 360 / 365 = 9 T2bid(USD) = 4 2,0345 ( 4 - 9)60 Dswap = 2,0415 + = 2,0247 36000 + 9 * 60 The number of USD the company receives is: 1.000.000 * 2,0247 = 2.024.700 (USD) 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.2.A customer has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency Company X has an excessive amount of 1.000.000 GBP in the next 60 days and needs to use USD. Do Swap GBP/USD for company X. 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.2.A customer has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency: Answer - Step 1: At J+2, the company sell 1.000.000 GBP for the partner to receive USD with Sbid GBP/USD=2,0345 the amount of USD received is: 1.000.000 * 2,0345 = 2.034.500 - Step 2: At J+2+60 the company receive 1.000.000 GBP from the partner and pay USD back with Sswap: 5.2. Swap between a bank and a customer 5.2.2.A customer has a fixed excessive amount of foreign currency: Answer Sbid = 2,0345; Sask = 2,0415 T1bid(GBP) = 9 * 360 / 365 = 8,8767 T2ask (USD) = 4,25 2,0415 (4,25 - 8,8767 )60 Dswap = 2,0345 + = 2,0189 36000 + 8,8767 * 60 The amount of USD, the company has to pay: 1.000.000 * 2,0189 = 2.018.900 USD 5. Swap – Practice ■ Ex1:In Germany, Bank X needs 800.000 SEK in the next 90 days and has an excessive amount of CAD. Do Swap for bank X. ■ Ex2: In England, Bank Y needs EUR in the next 90 days and has an amount of 500.000 CHF. Do Swap for bank Y. ■ Ex3: In France, company M has an excessive amount of 850.000 AUD, they need to use NOK in the next 90 days. Do Swap for company M. ■ Ex4: In England, company N needs to use 300.000 EUR in the next 90 days, they have an amount of GBP. Do Swap for company N. 5. Swap – Practice ■ The information in the market: GBP/USD=1,7395/15 USD/NOK=6,7370/25 EUR/USD=1,1225/45 USD/AUD=1,3437/67 USD/SEK=7,8310/97 USD/CHF=1,5642/42 USD/CAD=1,1255/95 ■ Interest rate for 3 months (%/year) GBP:91/16-91/8 AUD:3-31/2 NOK:61/4-61/2 SEK:81/8-81/4 71/2 CAD:6 – 61/2 EUR:51/4-51/2 CHF:7 –
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