MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 18 pages in 1 section www.business-standard.com NEW DELHI ~14.00 VOLUME XXXI NUMBER 303 How markets performed last week Index on Apr 4, ‘25 Sensex Nifty Dow Jones Nasdaq Hang Seng Nikkei FTSE DAX *Oneweek 75,365 -2.6 22,904 -2.6 38,315 -7.9 15,588 -10.0 22,850 -3.1 33,781 -9.0 8,055 -7.0 20,642 -8.1 *Change (%) over previous week % chg over Dec 31, ‘24 --———————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Local currency in US $ -3.6 -3.1 -9.9 -19.3 13.9 -15.3 -1.4 3.7 -3.1 -2.7 -9.9 -19.3 13.8 -9.4 1.5 9.7 Source: Bloomberg 3 IN 4 CEOS WANT INDIA TO NEGOTIATE WITH US: BS POLL $20 BN IT DEALS UP FOR RENEWAL AMID GLOBAL UNCERTAINTIES P UB L I S HE D S I M UL T A N E O USL Y FR OM A HM ED AB AD , B EN GAL UR U, B HO PAL , B HU BANE SW AR , C HAND I G ARH, CHE NNAI , HY D E R A B AD, K OC HI , K OL K A TA , L U CK N O W , M U MB A I, N E W DE L HI A N D P U N E You may consider ETF* *ETF - Exchange Traded Fund is designed to replicate the Index An Investor Education and Awareness Initiative by Mirae Asset Mutual Fund. All Mutual Fund investors have to go through a one-time KYC (Know Your Customer) including the Scan to process for change in address, Phone number, bank details, etc. Investors should deal only with registered Mutual Funds details of which can be verified on SEBI website (https://www.sebi.gov.in) under ‘Intermediaries /Market Infrastructure Institutions’. For further information on KYC, RMFs and procedure to lodge a complaint in case of any grievance, you may refer the Knowledge Centre section available on the website of Mirae Asset Mutual Fund. Investors may lodge complaints on https://www.scores.gov.in against registered intermediaries if they are unsatisfied with the responses. SCORES facilitate you to lodge your complaint online with SEBI and subsequently view its status. know more Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 2 COMMERCIAL 1 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > Your SIP, Your Start an SIP - Systematic Investment Plan Scan to An Investor Education and Awareness Initiative by Mirae Asset Mutual Fund. All Mutual Fund investors have to go through a one-time KYC (Know Your Customer) including the process for change in address, Phone number, bank details, etc. Investors should deal only with registered Mutual Funds details of which can be verified on SEBI website (https://www.sebi.gov.in) under ‘Intermediaries /Market Infrastructure Institutions’. For further information on KYC, RMFs and procedure to lodge a complaint in case of any grievance, you may refer the Knowledge Centre section available on the website of Mirae Asset Mutual Fund. Investors may lodge complaints on https://www.scores.gov.in against registered intermediaries if they are unsatisfied with the responses. SCORES facilitate you to lodge your complaint online with SEBI and subsequently view its status. know more Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 18 pages in 1 section www.business-standard.com NEW DELHI ~14.00 VOLUME XXXI NUMBER 303 How markets performed last week Index on Apr 4, ‘25 Sensex Nifty Dow Jones Nasdaq Hang Seng Nikkei FTSE DAX *Oneweek % chg over Dec 31, ‘24 --———————————————————————————————————————————————————————— Local currency in US $ -3.6 -3.1 -9.9 -19.3 13.9 -15.3 -1.4 3.7 -3.1 -2.7 -9.9 -19.3 13.8 -9.4 1.5 9.7 75,365 -2.6 22,904 -2.6 38,315 -7.9 15,588 -10.0 22,850 -3.1 33,781 -9.0 8,055 -7.0 20,642 -8.1 *Change (%) over previous week Source: Bloomberg ~ MAY HOLD GAINS NEAR 85.5/$ AS GREENBACK WOBBLES: BS POLL With Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy raising concerns over US growth prospects and weakening the dollar, the rupee is expected to remain stable over the next few months. According to the median estimate from a Business Standard poll, the rupee is expected to trade at 85.5 per dollar by June-end, and 85.75 by September-end. The Indian currency closed at 85.24 per dollar on Friday, compared to its previous close of 85.44. 4> COMPANIES P2 COMPANIES P2 THE UPI OF 2016 AND TODAY ARE COMPLETELY DIFFERENT: NPCI’S ASBE HOTEL CHAINS SEE ROOM FOR GROWTH IN FACTORY TOWNS P UB L I S HE D S I M UL T A N E O USL Y FR OM A HM ED AB AD , B EN GAL UR U, B HO PAL , B HU BANE SW AR , C HAND I G ARH, CHE NNAI , HY D E R A B AD, K OC HI , K OL K A TA , L U CK N O W , M U MB A I, N E W DE L HI A N D P U N E N DEALING WITH RECIPROCAL TARIFFSN 3 in 4 CEOs want India to US buyers rethink India orders as negotiate with US: BS poll tariff woes bite ILLUSTRATION: AJAY MOHANTY Majority say they’re not changing strategy to tackle tariff challenge New Delhi/Mumbai/Chennai, 6 April BS REPORTERS Mumbai, 6 April ECONOMY & PUBLIC AFFAIRS P5 MPC meet begins today amid rate-cut expectation The meeting of the Reserve Bank of India’s six-member monetary policy committee — the first of the current financial year — starts Monday amid expectation of another 25-basis-point cut in the policy repo rate, though there are outside chances of a higher rate reduction. ON MONDAY SPECIALS BANKER’S TRUST Expect a 25-bp rate cut, but no change in stance As headline inflation moves closer to RBI’s target, and growth momentum remains elusive, a rate cut may be on the cards. TAMAL BANDYOPADHYAY writes 15 > MONEY MANAGER From the shop floor Change is underway in the deployment of point-of-sale devices, but the business may need a tweak. RAGHU MOHAN reports 14 > POLITICS Fast tracks, fuzzy math As Bihar polls near, upcoming Patna Metro fuels excitement. But across India, expensive metro dream projects often outweigh ridership and financial reality. ADITI PHADNIS writes 8> THE SMART INVESTOR Warning lights for ER&D as auto sector runs low on fuel 13 > ECONOMY & PUBLIC AFFAIRS P5 New CPI series to include rural housing inflation The upcoming new consumer price index (CPI) series will start measuring housing inflation in rural areas, in tune with shifting consumption patterns and emergence of rental markets beyond urban centres, official sources said. (For Super Senior Citizen) WHAT NEXT SHREYA NANDI, SOHINI DAS & SHINE JACOB A vast majority of Indian chief executive officers (CEOs) would prefer the Indian government to engage in trade negotiations with the United States, rather than adopting a retaliatory approach, following the imposition of a 26 per cent reciprocal tariff on Indian exports, shows a dipstick survey of 15 top executives. A nationwide survey conducted by Business Standard soon after the Trump administration imposed tariffs on several countries showed that 80 per cent of the CEOs wanted India to negotiate with the American government (see chart). “The government should not have a knee-jerk reaction. The current government’s approach of wait and watch is the right way. The government should focus on global competition and not depend on a few countries,” said the CEO of a leading firm, asking not to be named. Seventy-three per cent of the respondents said they were not impacted by the Trump tariff, while the rest were divided equally between seeing it as an opportunity and expecting adverse impact. “Economies that rely largely on international trade will be the ones getting impacted most. India, being a high (domestic) consumption economy, won’t witness much impact from the tariffs,” said the head of a large auto firm who Turn to Page 5 > did not wish to be named. OVER 50 NATIONS REACH OUT TO WHITE HOUSE FOR TRADE TALKS BUSINESS PLAN Based on a survey of 15 CEOs do you Q How view the impact Tata Motors’ luxury arm Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which has announced a pause on shipments to the United States, is expected to clear its current inventory in the market sooner than anticipated, analysts believe. JLR is estimated to have between one and two months worth of inventory in the US, one of them said. 6> strategies are you Q What considering to mitigate of US tariffs on your company? the effects of these tariffs? Diversifying export markets Increasing domestic focus Negotiating new supplychain agreements No change required Opportunity 13.33 Adverse impact 13.33 No impact 73.33 you foresee any long-term Q Do implications of these tariffs on India-US trade relations? the Indian Q Should government introduce No 20 Yes 40 6.67 0 20 73.33 Unsure 40 Maintain current approach 13.33 Unsure 6.67 countermeasures or Negotiate engage in negotiations trade benefits to address the US tariffs? 80 P6 JLR pauses US shipments, may look to clear inventory fast (Figures in %) Q Will you invest more in India in FY26? Q Yes 100 Yes Will you invest overseas in the future, especially after Trump tariffs? No Don’t know 33.33 33.33 33.33 Source: BS CEO Survey Compiled by BS Research Bureau Washington’s decision to impose reciprocal tariffs on its key trade partners, including India, has put American buyers in a tough spot, even as exporters’ anxieties are rising on multiple fronts. Buyers are reassessing existing orders, with some seeking discounts. They are also exploring the best possible sources for imports, given the varied but steep reciprocal tariffs, exporters said. In India, Customs authorities are working towards faster clearance of goods by April 9, when the reciprocal tariffs are slated to kick in. The priority is to dispatch as many consignments as possible — either by ship or by air — before April 9. Some exporters are worried that buyers may face liquidity issues, considering the sharp rise in tariffs on imports from 60 countries. The US’ average import tariff has been as low as 3 per cent so far. If buyers face liquidity pressure, payments to Indian exporters may be delayed, and the payment cycle could get elongated, they said. Separately, calculations are underway to gauge the impact on prices. On April 2 (Eastern Time), US President Donald Trump signed an executive order introducing new reciprocal tariffs, imposing additional ad valorem duties ranging from 10 per cent to 50 per cent on imports from several countries. While a 10 per cent baseline duty took effect on Saturday, additional country-specific duties will come into force from April 9. ‘Individual reciprocal higher tariffs’ will be imposed on 60 countries with which the US has the n Some US buyers are seeking discounts n Exporters are worried that buyers may face liquidity issues, considering the sharp rise in import tariffs from 60 countries n If buyers face liquidity pressure, payments to Indian exporters may be delayed, and payment cycle could get elongated n Firms and their clients are also calculating the actual impact on prices PAGE 8 Shrimp farming: Tariff shockwaves rock Andhra shores Since US President Donald Trump’s announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April 2, shrimp prices across all categories have dropped by 10–15 per cent, triggering widespread panic among farmers and exporters. SHINE JACOB writes largest trade deficits. Ajay Sahai, director-general and chief executive officer of the Federation of Indian Export Organisations, said demand was likely to slow down over the next few weeks as buyers would evaluate the situation with respect to the additional duties, since India was not the only country facing Turn to Page 5 > high reciprocal tariffs. India’s FY26 growth seen closer to 6.3% WITH OIL OFF THE TABLE, US PAGE 4 Official says lower energy costs good news for country Govt hopes to have surpassed RE for capex in FY25 ASIT RANJAN MISHRA & SHREYA NANDI New Delhi, 6 April Senior government officials expect India’s FY26 economic growth to hover around the lower end of the 6.3-6.8 per cent range projected in the Economic Survey. This comes amid rising global uncertainty triggered by US President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs on key trading partners, which have raised fears of a potential recession in India’s largest export destination. “We still expect growth to be in the range of 6.3-6.8 per cent as projected earlier, though it may be closer to the lower end of the band,” a government official said. While admitting that a demand slowdown in the US would pose a challenge, a second official said the proposed income-tax cuts in the US might offer some cushion. “Lower energy costs are also good news for India’s growth prospects,” the official said. Brent crude, the global benchmark, slid nearly 8 per cent to below $65 a barrel on Friday, its lowest in nearly four years. Goldman Sachs has lowered its average Brent crude price NUDGES INDIA TOWARDS LNG PAGE 5 The government is confident it surpassed the Revised Estimates (RE) for capital expenditure of ~10.18 trillion in FY25 based on the advance numbers, two top government officials said. “The numbers we have received so far, even though not for the full financial year, indicate that we are likely to have exceeded the revised target of capex,” an official said. RUCHIKA CHITRAVANSHI writes With India making it clear that the US doesn’t have enough spare capacity for crude oil, Washington, DC, now wants India to sign fixed-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with American producers, multiple sources in the know said. SUBHAYAN CHAKRABORTY writes INDIA MAY EMERGE AS LOW-TARIFF HUB FOR US-BOUND CONSUMER DURABLE EXPORTS ‘RECESSIONARY PHASE NOT RULED OUT’ FY26 GROWTH FORECASTS (Y-o-Y in %) ADB World Bank S&P Global IMF 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.5 Fitch OECD Nomura 6.5 6.4 5.9 Source: BS Research forecast for 2025 to $69 a barrel. JPMorgan Chase & Co has said it expects the US economy to fall into recession this year. “We now expect real GDP (gross domestic product) to contract under the weight of the tariffs. For MONTEK SINGH AHLUWALIA the full year, we forecast -0.3 per cent real GDP growth, down from 1.3 per cent previously,” said Michael Feroli, chief US economist at JPMorgan. Economists at Citi and UBS have also cut their US growth forecasts to 0.1 per cent and 0.4 per cent, respectively. Economists have projected that India’s growth could be impacted by 30 to 60 basis points (bps) in FY26. HDFC Bank Principal Economist Sakshi Gupta said there was a downside risk of 30 bps to her 6.6 per cent growth forecast. Turn to Page 5 > tells Indivjal Dhasmana Page 8 PAGE 7 EDIT: COLUMN: SPIRALLING US TARIFFS: RUNNING BLIND ON DOWNWARDS A TIGHTROPE, WRITES DEBASHIS BASU PAGE 15 STATSGURU: TRUMP TARIFFS: HOPES & FEARS $20 bn IT contracts up for renewal amid GenAI wave, global uncertainties AVIK DAS Bengaluru, 6 April RENEWAL PIPELINE India’s top six information technology (IT) services players, along with Nasdaqlisted Cognizant Technology, have deals worth at least $20 billion up for renewal this year, according to people familiar with the matter. Deals worth $14 billion were renewed in 2024. These renewals are particularly significant as they come at a time when US-imposed tariffs and global macroeconomic uncertainties have created a cloud of uncertainties. The deals are spread across verticals, such as banking, financial services and insurance (BFSI), retail, consumer packaged goods, and manufacturing. Most of these contracts — signed during or just after the pandemic — have a tenure of three to five years. “There will not be many straight renewals, and many of these enterprises will try to go to the market to get some competitive bids,” said Saurabh Gupta, IT service provider Major renewals TCS Nielsen, Star Alliance, Albertsons, Generali Infosys Daimler, GE Appliances, Old National Bank Wipro Petrobras, E.ON HCLTech Chesnara Tech Mahindra Circle Health Cognizant Network Rail PAGE 3 Indian firms may be overusing AI tag Experts in India’s AI startup ecosystem fear the overuse of the AI label by firms, which see it more as an efficiency layer rather than a driver of core innovation. According to them, some recently established companies are branding themselves as AI-driven, though in many cases, AI functions more as a tool to enhance efficiency rather than redefine workflows. Source: Industry president, research and advisory, HFS Research. Some of the major contracts coming up for renewal include Tata Consultancy Services’ (TCS’) deals with Star Alliance, a consortium of airlines based in Germany, and Nielsen; Infosys’ deals with GE Appliances and Daimler; HCLTech’s with UK-based life insurer Chesnara; Wipro’s with German electric utility company E.ON and Petrobras of Brazil; and Tech Mahindra’s with Circle Health. “All of them are looking for the next wave of cost reduction, efficiency, and how artificial intelligence (AI) can play a role in that, because these were the deals signed before AI became such a big thing. So, clients are going to ask service providers what they can do with AI and where the next wave of value will come from,” added Gupta. AI and generative AI (GenAI) are expected to play crucial roles in deal renewals going forward, as clients look to build more efficiencies into their operations and reduce costs. Infosys, for example, is looking to integrate AI and add it as a new revenue stream in its existing $3 billion deal with German automaker Daimler. The company hopes this will help extend the partnership beyond 2028 and ensure a steady revenue flow. Such offerings will be especially important in sectors like manufacturing, retail, and CPG, which are likely to be most affected by the tariffs imposed by the US President on almost every major country. Analysts say these sectors are already bearing the brunt of the uncertainty, with decisionmaking slowed and hiring nearly at a halt in the US. “The impact will be bigger on the industries most affected by tariffs, and that’s where we’ll see slower decision making and likely more focus on extending existing contracts until there’s better clarity on the macroeconomic outlook,” Stanton Jones, distinguished analyst at research firm ISG, told Business Standard. That could also mean a silver lining for IT services firms, as macroeconomic headwinds are likely to translate into more and larger cost-optimisation deals. According to experts, enterprises have to reduce costs. But unlike in the past, they are not banking those savings. They need the savings to fund transformational programmes around AI, which are shaping the contours of current deals. Turn to Page 5 > 2 COMPANIES 1 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > ‘The UPI of 2016 and today are completely different’ Unified Payments Interface (UPI) has expanded rapidly, with new use cases being added to the real-time payments system. DILIP ASBE, managing director and chief executive officer of the National Payments Corporation of India (NPCI), speaks with Ajinkya Kawale in Mumbai about the company’s next phase of growth. Edited excerpts: What are NPCI’s big bets right now? merchants. Four to five more countries are exploring our tech stack. The primary focus remains on growing UPI, which has 10x potential. Currently, 400–450 million users use it monthly, How different is UPI’s next but it can grow to over a billion. Expandgrowth phase? ing the user and merchant base will UPI’s true potential is 100–150 billion require investment and new use cases. transactions a month. Reaching the next Second, we want to expand access to 600 million users will need handformal credit collaboratively and holding and initial incentives until it responsibly. With Reserve Bank of India becomes habitual. To build trust, we’ve (RBI) and government support, the run digital payment safety campaigns Credit Line on UPI can grow the market. over the past year. UPI hasn't matured yet UPI has created a strong digital footprint. — realising its full potential needs Now we need tools like Credit ongoing innovation, Line on UPI for low-ticket, investment, and collaboration high-frequency credit — between banks and financial unlike credit cards. technology companies. Third, we’re investing in technology (tech) — artificial What’s NPCI’s position on the DILIP ASBE intelligence (AI), blockchain, merchant discount rate (MDR) and digital currency. AI helps discussions? MD & CEO, NPCI us assess fraud risks in real It’s under discussion with the time. We’ve kept reported fraud below 1 government and RBI. basis point of UPI value, which is reasonable. NPCI has introduced Lite and Lite X. Fourth, globalisation. Cross-border Was this in response to bank servers integration needs regulatory nearing capacity? We have seen cooperation. We’ve made early progress three outages so far. in seven countries and are enabling Lite and Lite X are the same product. IN BRIEF Tesla’s entry will help boost EV market in India: BMW BMW Group India is unfazed by the prospect of Tesla entering the electric vehicle market here and feels it will help grow the segment, according to its Managing Director and Chief Executive Officer Vikram Pawah. The group, which sold a total of 1,249 units of electric cars in India across two brands — BMW and MINI — has already sold 646 units in the first quarter of 2025 and is keeping its forecast of 15 per cent of its total sales in India coming from EVs, Pawah told PTI in an interview. PTI Fuelled by beauty vertical, Nykaa eyes robust growth FSN E-Commerce Ventures, the parent firm of fashion and beauty retailer Nykaa, on Sunday, said it expects continued growth in the final quarter of Q4FY25. The company said the beauty vertical will continue to be the major growth driver. ”Nykaa’s full financial year’s revenue growth is estimated to be at similar levels in the mid-twenties, indicating consistent growth across all quarters of FY25," it said. BS REPORTER MMRDA allocates plot to NSE for lease premium of ~758 cr The Mumbai Metropolitan Region Development Authority (MMRDA) has allocated a plot in Mumbai’s Bandra-Kurla Complex (BKC) to the National Stock Exchange (NSE) for a lease premium of ~757.70 crore. The allocated plot C-82 in G-Block, BKC, has a total area of 5,500 square meters (sq m) and a built-up area of 22,000 sq m with a permissible floor space index (FSI) of 4.00. NSE will develop an administrative building on the allocated plot. The plot has been leased for 80 years. BS REPORTER AERA unlikely to allow Mumbai international airport’s legal cost claim DEEPAK PATEL trol period (FY20–FY24) were ~90.5 crore. The document further projects that legal The Airports Economic expenses will almost double to Regulatory Authority (AERA) ~167.5 crore in the fourth conis unlikely to allow legal trol period (FY25 – FY29). A meeting was organised expenses to be included under “operating costs” while calcu- by AERA last month to discuss lating aeronautical tariffs for MIAL’s tariff proposal. During Mumbai International Airport this meeting, an MIAL execuLimited (MIAL) during the tive argued that there is no fourth control period, which clause in the existing agreeruns until FY29, sources told ments — signed with government entities — that disallows Business Standard. Once aeronautical tariffs — legal expenses. The opersuch as landing ator pointed charges, parkMIAL has requested out that such ing charges, AERA to include costs had been and user devellegal expenses allowed by opment fee operating under AERA in the (UDF) — are set costs as this tariff determiby AERA, the would result in nations of the airport operator higher tariffs previous three is permitted to control periods. collect them According to MIAL, legal from the aviation sector stakeholders such as airlines and expenses are a routine part of airport operations, arising passengers. Adani Group-led MIAL, from matters such as height which operates the Mumbai restrictions, land disputes, airport, has requested AERA slum rehabilitation, and issues to include legal expenses related to aeronautical charges under operating costs, as this and payments to the Airports would result in higher tariffs Authority of India (AAI). The operator noted that being approved by the reguAERA had allowed similar lator, they said. However, AERA believes legal costs in tariff orders for that including legal expenses six AAI airports that were pricould lead to a duplication of vatised following concession costs—since the privatised agreements signed in Februairport already maintains an ary 2020. These orders were internal legal team. Such issued between 2021 and 2023. The MIAL executive then expenses should be rationalised rather than passed on requested the regulator to through higher tariffs, maintain consistency with its past practice and allow legal sources said. According to MIAL’s doc- expenses to be included under ument submitted to AERA, its “operating costs” in the curlegal expenses in the third con- rent control period as well. They’re designed to avoid multiple hops for small-ticket transactions. A typical UPI transaction takes about 10 hops, but that can be optimised for smaller amounts. Banks have been committed. The RBI and government monitor NPCI and banks regularly. When you’re planning for 10x growth, constant innovation is necessary. The UPI of 2016 and today are completely different — it’s an evolutionary process. intermittent technical issues that affected UPI success rates for about an hour. The issue was identified and resolved. We've since stabilised the system, done a root cause analysis, and replaced affected hardware to avoid recurrence. We regret the inconvenience and are committed to transparency, stronger safeguards, and a seamless experience. How can banks grow UPI volumes on their applications (apps)? Banks are interested, but they’re at different stages of tech readiness. Some — SBI, ICICI, HDFC, Axis — are making progress. Yes Bank has launched a new UPI app. There are efforts, but more are needed. What caused the March 26 outage? NPCI has a surplus of ~1,100 crore. How is this allocated? That day, NPCI had That’s a board decision. NPCI is a not-for- UPI’S TRUE POTENTIAL IS 100–150 BN TRANSACTIONS A MONTH. REACHING THE NEXT 600 MN USERS WILL NEED HAND-HOLDING…” profit. We aim to create resilience and ensure uptime, which requires large infrastructure investments. We’ve built two data centres in Hyderabad and Chennai, a third one is ready, and we’re considering a fourth. We settle large daily values and maintain a settlement guarantee fund and risk reserves. We have offices in Hyderabad and Chennai, but not in Mumbai. As we scale, we’ve reduced NPCI’s UPI fees almost every year to pass economies of scale back to the ecosystem. Were the third-party app provider (TPAP) approvals in line with your 30 per cent mcap goal for end-2024? We’ve extended the deadline by two years. Efforts are on to get more players involved. A balanced market share is the goal, but it’s not easy. We hope newer players invest, gain share, and offer different use cases. It’s possible, but slower than expected. As players grow, size and legacy can become hurdles. Smaller players can innovate more and build features for niche segments. Two players are benefiting from network effects — I don’t know how long that will last. We’re seeing movement from Cred, Navi, super.money, and Paytm. There are signs that things might shift soon. A record 20 firms got UPI approval in 2024. Is the licensing process getting easier? Several factors are driving TPAP interest. MDR is zero, and the government is offering incentives. UPI, as an infrastructure layer, gives access to 450 million users. If you're launching a credit, insurance, or investment app, UPI cuts acquisition costs dramatically. It’s democratising user acquisition, like Aadhaar did with know-yourcustomer. More players will increase competition. A few TPAPs were licensed in the fourth quarter of 2024-25 — we expect them to go live later this year. BHIM (Bharat Interface for Money) has been hived off. Was it due to a conflict of interest? Would NPCI consider more such hive-offs? There are some considerations but I can’t comment on future hive-offs yet. BHIM has been part of NPCI for seven–eight years. We don’t see it as a competitor — it’s a collaboration. BHIM is viewed as the country’s app. The goal isn’t to grow 50– 100 per cent of UPI volumes but to ensure a sovereign alternative. We hived it off to maintain an arm’s-length relationship between NPCI and BHIM. More on business-standard.com Hotel chains see room for growth in factory towns Hyatt to add six hotels this year GULVEEN AULAKH & AKSHARA SRIVASTAVA New Delhi, 6 April EXPANDING REACH New Delhi, 6 April Marquee hotel brands are moving to India’s industrial towns to drum up business in places set to lead the country’s next phase of growth. Big hospitality brands such as the Thailand-based Dusit group, Sarovar Hotels, and Treebo have set their sights on these so-called micro markets, including Sriperumbudur, Bhiwadi, Nashik, and Dholera. According to industry executives, these industrial towns will expand not only to employ more people but will also attract global business leaders as India positions itself as an alternative manufacturing hub to China, even in the face of the new tariff regime imposed by the US government. Jatin Khanna, chief executive officer (CEO), Sarovar Hotels, said, “We are setting up a Sarovar Portico in Sriperumbudur, an industrial hub. This is a micro market with just one existing hotel but huge demand, which is why we are setting up our own hotel and opening up in the next 90 days.” The hotel, spread across 2.5 acres, will have 156 rooms, 7,000 square feet conference and meeting areas with amenities such as restaurant, bar, spa, gym, and pool. Hospitality major Marriott International has recently partnered with SmartHomes Infrastructure to build a fivestar hotel in Dholera, India’s up and coming semiconductor hub. The 200-room hotel near the proposed Dholera International Airport will bear The Courtyard brand name. States and the Centre are encouraging infrastructure expansion in and around these industrial hubs. The Union government has identified 12 new industrial corridors and the service industry is thus finding confidence to take the plunge. These corridors, which includes the Dholera Special Investment Region part Global chains Marriott & Dusit, Indian majors Sarovar & Treebo paving the way An upcoming segment as India expands manufacturing hubs, builds 12 new industrial corridors Potential clientele coming from global manufacturing companies and GVCs heading to India Hotel chains heading to Dholera, Sriperumbudur, Bhiwadi, and Nashik of the Delhi-Mumbai Industrial Corridor, are under the ~28,600 crore National Industrial Development Programme, which will enable the creation of greenfield smart cities of global standards. Thai hospitality chain Dusit has identified Tier-II and -III markets as avenues of growth. It plans to tap underserved locations and is preparing to launch six hotels to cater to growing demand in Raipur and Bhiwadi. “Destinations like Bhiwadi have a lot of potential. It is an underserved market with a lack of branded hotels, forcing international customers to stay in Gurugram and drive two hours to reach the industrial hub,”said Deepika Arora, head (India), Dusit International. Treebo Hospitality Ventures (THV), parent company of the budget brand Treebo, and the newly-launched midscale brand Medallion have also identified small industrial towns as opportunities. “In terms of growth, we are only scratching the surface. The economy segment has about 100,000 hotels — but these are unorganised. Over the next decade, we aim to have 2-3 per cent share of this market. Meanwhile, the midscale seg- ment is not too crowded currently and we want to gain a bigger share of it,” Sidharth Gupta, cofounder and CEO, THV, told Business Standard recently. With over 800 hotels and 16,000 keys, 30 per cent of Treebo’s portfolio is in small cities. Additionally, it has planned 500700 midscale hotels in the coming years. “We have identified Tier-II and -III markets as the real drivers of growth. As many as 40 per cent of our portfolio is in the seven big metros, which will continue to offer growth. But the excitement is in the next 100 cities. We are going to places like Thrissur, Chandrapur and Nashik , Siliguri, and Haridwar,” Gupta said, adding that these cities offer massive headroom. Nagpur, where THV has 23 hotels, clocks an occupancy of over 70 per cent, it said. “These cities are seeing the rise of special economic zones, industrial corridors, and highways. Nagpur, for example, is a massive warehousing hub and is now becoming an information technology hub. These factors are supplementing the preexisting trade-driven economy in these cities, which is adding up to drive opportunity and occupancies,” Gupta added. AKSHARA SRIVASTAVA New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)-listed Hyatt Hotels plans to add 1,350 keys to its India portfolio with the opening of six new hotels in the country this year, as it remains focused on the luxury and leisure segment to aid growth. The hospitality chain will focus on its lifestyle brands like JdV and Andaz, and intends to bring its recentlyacquired lifestyle brand Standard Hotels to the country. “Standard hotels is an amazing brand for India and I’m very excited and eager to bring it here if the right opportunity comes up. We have the perfect market in cities like Delhi, Mumbai, Goa, and Bengaluru and the right age group for it,” Sunjae Sharma, managing director, India and southwest Asia at Hyatt Hotels, told Business Standard. The six new hotels this year will come up in Ghaziabad, Kasauli, Kochi, Bhopal, Vithalapur, and Jaipur. “As we look ahead to 2025, we are excited to build on this momentum with even more aggressive expansion plans, and a goal of 100 hotels in India within the next five years,” Sharma said. It currently has 50 properties in the country. With nine brands in India currently, Hyatt will also be launching its tenth brand — Destination — this year in Jaipur and Jim Corbett. The Sunjae Sharma, MD, India and southwest Asia at Hyatt Hotels said the company has plans of setting up 100 hotels in India in the next five years hotel management company has identified five cornerstones of growth — luxury, loyalty, leisure, lifestyle, and wellness. Under its luxury segment, the company has three new Alila properties in the development stage currently in Igatpuri (Maharashtra), Coorg and Lansdowne. Also in the pipeline is the opening of the Noor-Us-Sabah Palace in Bhopal — its first Unbound Collection property, which has been pushed to 2026. “Lifestyle is a big focus. We have doubled our luxury portfolio, tripled our resort portfolio, and grown the lifestyle portfolio five-fold. That is a strategic transformation we have undertaken,” he said. In the year gone by, the company witnessed a strong double digit growth across performance metrics like signings and RevPAR (revenue per available room). New Delhi, 6 April GreenLine lines up additional E-buses to drive 50% of India $1 billion to expand green fleet business by FY27: JBM Auto PUJA DAS DEV CHATTERJEE storage ecosystem by setting up giga-scale ACC and battery manufacturing facilities with an emphasis on maximum domestic Electric buses (e-buses) will make up half value addition. Arya added that with a of JBM Auto’s India business by 2026-27 capacity of manufacturing 20,000 e-buses (FY27), company’s vice-chairman, Nishant in its Delhi-National Capital Region unit, Arya, told Business Standard in an inter- JBM EV Ventures aims to revolutionise the view. The company has an order book of EV battery ecosystem by introducing flexmore than 10,000 e-buses which it hopes ible and cost-effective battery management to deliver in the next two years, Arya added. solutions through battery subscription and The company received an order size of leasing, infrastructure development, and allied services expansion in the coming around 6,300 in 2023-24 (FY24). years. E-buses account for 35 per cent With regard to availing the of JBM Auto’s revenue at present. subsidy under the PM-eBus The company, a key player in Sewa scheme, the firm has India’s automotive sector, paralready been awarded subticularly in the e-bus segment, sidies under the first and sechas a 30-40 per cent market ond phases and the rollout will share in the country. start this year in a few states, A total of 3,314 e-buses sold including Maharashtra, Gujin India in 2024-25 (FY25) arat, and Haryana, Arya said. down from 3,516 in FY24. JBM Arya said that JBM is Auto and JBM Electric sold 379 JBM Auto and JBM unlikely to bear the brunt of US’ e-buses in FY25 compared to Electric sold 379 reciprocal tariffs, but overall, 530 in FY24, and eight e-buses e-buses in FY25 economies heavily dependent in the current financial year, against 530 in on trade will be severely according to data from the FY24 and 8 so far, affected. “India being a highVahan portal excluding according to the consumption economy, our Telangana. Vahan portal data domestic requirement is huge Arya said JBM plans to parin the country. So, the impact ticipate in the Ministry of Heavy Industries’ advanced chemistry cell on the Indian economy will be miniscule (ACC) battery storage production-linked even if you look at the e-bus segment.” The incentive (PLI) scheme with the firm’s penetration of e-buses in China and Europe Bawal plant near Gurugram, manufacturing is around 300 buses per 1,000 people, and assembling batteries for all kinds of whereas in India, that figure is nearly 30, vehicles. With an ~18,100 crore outlay, the Arya said, adding, “The gap is huge and our ACC battery storage PLI scheme aims to country has so much potential that this strengthen the electric mobility and battery requirement has to be bridged first.” New Delhi, 6 April Mumbai, 6 April EYEING ECO-FRIENDLY FUTURE GreenLine Mobility Solutions, a logistics firm backed by the Essar Group, is raising $275 million in equity from promoters and investors, including Nikhil Kamath, cofounder of online stock-trading platform Zerodha, at an undisclosed valuation. This is part of a $1 billion fresh investment, including equity, reflects GreenLine’s ambition to offer greener logistics alternatives. The Mumbai-based firm, which currently operates a fleet of 650 LNG trucks in India, aims to scale up to 10,000 heavy-duty vehicles over the next few years, powered by liquefied natural gas (LNG) and electricity. “This investment in decarbonising road logistics aligns with Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s e-drive initiative,” said Anshuman Ruia, a director of Essar, adding India’s vision for a low-carbon future is taking shape, and GreenLine is proud to be at the forefront. Its LNG trucks are being sourced through a technical and equity tie-up with Iveco, an Italian manufacturer from an associate company, Blue Energy Motors. To support this transition, an associate company will establish 100 Associate firm to invest in EV, LNG truck manufacturing rates to clients as diesel powered heavy duty trucks LNG pumping stations with EV charging stations to be set up across India High potential as India is far behind in LNG/EV heavy duty trucking, EV charging infrastructure compared to China Company to offer same LNG refuelling stations, along with electric-vehicle (EV) charging points and battery-swapping facilities. The move is part of a wider push to provide low-emissions transport infrastructure. Both India and China are nudging freight operators away from diesel. In China, the share of LNG trucks rose to more than 9 per cent of the heavy-duty fleet in 2024, following a peak in diesel truck sales in 2021. A similar shift is expected in India, where official policy favours greener transport. GreenLine claims its services are cost-competitive with diesel hauliers. That, it argues, allows clients to lower emissions with- out paying a premium, potentially earning them carbon credits in the process. Anand Mimani, GreenLine’s chief executive, said the company is “building the backbone of sustainable logistics” by rolling out the infrastructure necessary for a shift from fossil fuels. “With our nationwide network, we are enabling the logistics ecosystem to move seamlessly to cleaner, more efficient alternatives,” he said. Kamath, who invested $20 million in GreenLine, believes the transformation is overdue. “Green mobility isn’t just a trend—it’s inevitable,” he said. NEW DELHI : Printed and Published by Nandan Singh Rawat on behalf of Business Standard Private Limited and printed at The Indian Express (P) Ltd. A-8, Sector-7, Noida, Gautam Budh Nagar-201301 and published at Business Standard Private Limited, Nehru House, 4 Bahadur Shah Zafar Marg, New Delhi 110002 Editor : Shailesh Dobhal, RNI NO. 57376/1994 Readers should write their feedback at feedback@bsmail.in Ph. 011-23720202, Fax :+91-11-23720201 For Subscription and Circulation enquiries please contact:Ms. Mansi Singh Head-Customer Relations. Business Standard Private Limited. H/4, Building H,Paragon Centre, Opp. Birla Centurion, P.B.Marg, Worli, Mumbai - 400013 E-mail: subs_bs@bsmail.in “or sms, REACHBS TO 57575. NO AIR SURCHARGE COMPANIES 3 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > Indian firms may be overusing AI tag Experts say country trails global peers in core AI JADEN MATHEW PAUL Mumbai, 6 April E xperts in India’s artificial intelligence (AI) startup ecosystem fear an overuse of the AI label by companies, which see it more as an efficiency layer rather than a core innovation driver. According to them, some recently established companies are branding themselves as AI-driven, though in many cases AI functions more as a tool to enhance efficiency rather than redefine workflows. Abhishek Srivastava, general partner at Kae Capital, said while vertical software as a service (SaaS) companies are integrating AI to optimise repetitive tasks, their core technology stack and workflows remain largely unchanged — making AI more of a “wrapper”. In contrast, truly vertical AI applications fundamentally alter processes, he said. Such applications, where AI is central to the solution rather than an add-on, are still relatively rare. While a significant portion of AI adoption is genuine, Srivastava estimates that about 15–20 per cent of implementations are forced fits with limited impact. Santosh Maheshwari, partner at Grant Thornton Bharat, said, “I would say this terminology (AI) is used very loosely from any operational perspective.” He added, “Even a small tool that can be automated is now called AI. I think the term or function needs to be better defined to determine what constitutes an AI-operated startup.” Sumangal Vinjamuri, associate vice-president at Blume Ventures, classifies AI TALENT DRAIN, A CONCERN ‘Real innovation is how you Adani, Vedanta among integrate AI with hardware’ 26 firms in fray to B Capital, the investment firm cofounded by Facebook’s Eduardo Luiz Saverin, is making a major push to back companies in artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics in India and Asia, according to General Partner KARAN MOHLA. In a video interview with Peerzada Abrar, he highlighted the growing market for AI and robotics products, anticipating a surge of innovative companies from India and Asia to meet diverse needs. Edited excerpts: Which sectors are you excited about right now? lSeveral startups fail to use AI as an innovation driver l’AI’ label applied loosely, even for simple tools lIndia raised $171.4 mn in AI startup funding in 2024 vs $3.3 bn raised by China and $34 bn by the US lOutflow of AI talent limiting local innovation depth lIndia trails US by 3 years in AI thinking and product design startups into three categories. The first includes companies established between 2010 and 2020 that are integrating AI into specific use cases. While many position themselves as AI-native, there is often a gap between marketing claims and actual product capabilities. The second category comprises deep-tech firms operating closer to the fundamental AI layer — genuinely AI-native by design. The third includes new applications built entirely around AI, blending traditional SaaS models with AI-driven functionalities. Over time, Vinjamuri noted, the first and third groups are likely to converge as they compete for the same customers. One major challenge facing India’s AI startup ecosystem is the outflow of top-tier technical talent. Vinjamuri said many engineers and product developers capable of building AI-native products have already moved to the United States. “We have a lot of tech talent, but it is not at the tip of the spear when it comes to AI,” he said. He added that this limits the depth of AI product development in India. According to him, India lags Silicon Valley by two to three years in both technological thinking and product imagination. “A pattern I see in many US companies is that they are able to imagine replacing not just software spends but also human resources,” he said. According to data from Tracxn, AI startup funding in India stood at $171.4 million across 30 rounds in 2024 and $12.5 million across two rounds in the first quarter of 2025. In comparison, China secured $3.3 billion and the United States raised $34 billion in 2024. For the first quarter of 2025, China attracted $220 million, while the US saw $6.2 billion. WHAT WAS TYPICALLY DONE IN ACADEMIC AND RESEARCH ORGANISATIONS HAS NOW COME UP TO THE SURFACE OF COMMERCIAL AND BUSINESS VALUE PROPOSITIONS The area that we are very excited about right now and which includes certain tailwinds is AI. We are seeing a lot of interesting work for foundational models. We are starting to see applications both for enterprises and users. We are expecting to see a lot of interesting companies Will ChatGPT and DeepSeek emerging from Asia because impact your investment the context is very decisions? different from most We’ve done other AI native two robotic applications that are investments in being built in the US, the past year – Europe or China. We KARAN MOHLA one in the US are also excited about General Partner, and one in Asia – deeptech, robotics, and we’re B Capital space tech and working on one advanced more now. Aside manufacturing. What was from a few highly technical typically done in academic use cases, hardware and research organisations (innovation) has become has now come up to the somewhat commoditised. surface of commercial and The real innovation is in how business value propositions, you integrate AI, computer where they are able to raise vision, and software venture capital money. intelligence with the hardware. India’s strength lies in software engineering and development. Historically, the country didn’t have much success in robotics. But that has started to change. Also, countries like Japan have expertise in the area of hardware, but they don’t have full capability on the software side. The founders from India have a phenomenal opportunity to be able to build the companies which can cater to these requirements. A fund like us can be helpful in commercialisation and helping firms get access to large customers. What opportunities do you see for AI to scale up in health care, education and finance? We are seeing interesting opportunities in edtech, health care and financial services which sort of marries this combination of AI and relevant data. India offers probably one of the most attractive markets for AI-led solutions in different industries where you can build large businesses. acquire JP Associates BS REPORTER Mumbai, 6 April As many as 26 suitors, including Adani Enterprises, Vedanta, Jindal India Power, Kotak Alternate Asset Managers, and Patanjali Ayurveda, have expressed interest in acquiring the assets of the beleaguered Jaiprakash Associates Ltd, according to an exchange filing. Other entities interested in acquiring assets of Jaiprakash Associates include Dalmia Cement, Asset Reconstruction Company (India) Ltd, JC Flowers Asset Reconstruction, Torrent Power, Jindal Power, Authum Investment & Infrastructure, GRM Business and Oberoi Realty, among others. The deadline for submitting expression of interest (EoIs) ended on March 25. The 26 suitors are prospective resolution applicants for Jaiprakash Associates, which was admitted to the corporate insolvency resolution process through the National Company Law Tribunal (NCLT), Allahabad Bench, via an order dated June 3, 2024. The company was part of a list of 30 companies that were directed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) to be referred to the NCLT in August 2017. This was the second list put together by the regulator. Jaypee Infratech, the group’s infrastructure subsidiary, had already featured on the first list of 12 large corporate accounts for immediate insolvency action in June 2017. This list came to be known as “The Dirty Dozen”. Financial creditors to the company have an aggregated claim of ~57,185 crore against the company. Of this, a consortium of banks headed by State Bank of India (SBI) has transferred their exposure to state-owned National Asset Reconstruction Company Ltd (NARCL). This resulted in NARCL having the largest claim among creditors. Jaiprakash Associates is an industrial conglomerate, whose business includes engineering and construction. More on business-standard.com HEAD OFFICE Transaction Monitoring and KYC/AML Department Open Tender Notice Bank of India invites Open Tender for conducting feedback exercise for our field functionaries. For this purpose, RFP has been floated and uploaded to our bank website on 07.04.2025, The last date for submission of bid is 30.04.2025, 4.00 p.m. For more details kindly visit Bank of India official website www.bankofindia.co.in under BOI>Impor tant Links>Tender. Welspun One gets construction loan worth ~2.3K crore from Nabfid Welspun One Logistics Parks (Welspun One) on Sunday announced the financial closure of its logistics park project at Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA) with a construction financing of ~2,300 crore underwritten by the National Bank for Financing Infrastructure and Development (Nabfid). The JNPA logistics park, spanning 55 acres, is Welspun One’s largest logistics development in India. The logistics park is located within the JNPA Special Economic Zone in Navi Mumbai. The grade A industrial and warehousing facility will cater to e-commerce, 3PL, FMCG, and manufacturing sectors. The logistics park’s total development potential is over 3.6 million square feet. Anshul Singhal, cofounder and managing director, Welspun One, said: “The financial closure of our JNPA project marks a pivotal step in our journey to create world-class logistics and industrial infrastructure.” Rajkiran Rai, managing director of Nabfid said: “We are delighted to partner with Welspun One’s Logistics Park in JNPA. The state-of-the-art facilities such as this one are a part of the government’s plan to reduce logistics cost to the global average of 8 per cent of GDP, in order to promote competitiveness of Indian industry.” PRACHI PISAL APPOINTMENTS " " # $ $ %% & % %%% # #% '% & ()# " * +, ! ! "! # " $ % # & ' ()* " $ ! ! + / % %% %% -%# %% % 1 2 $ %%% % # & 3 /4 , - ' . %% %%% , ' % . %% 5 % * ( $ 0 / #* / % , ' % . %% 6 $ -%* /% %% 8 - %& /- ' 0 %% ' "$ 1()* ' ) ' , 2 "& 2)* ' ) ' , "& "& ! + /$0 + /$0 2) ' 2) ' , "& , $ . "& ! + /$0 + /$0 )1 ' )1 ' , "& /%* 7 , $ . "& ! + /$0 + /$0 * 34 )* 34 , "& %% , 0 / '& - % 9% , ' % . 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'6, ) $ 8A - -0 8 $% 33 3( ' ' * # + >= A=$= ' $& , 8) . 55 + 2 "& + /=%1A$ = + # 4 ECONOMY & PUBLIC AFFAIRS 1 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > N US RECIPROCAL TARIFFS’ FALLOUT N With crude off the table, US nudges India towards LNG India may emerge as low-tariff hub for US-bound consumer durable exports Electronics makers begin talks with US importers; Dixon, Super Plastronics see opportunity Mumbai, 6 April Consumer durable firms in India have begun early-stage talks with US importers at a time when the tariffs levied on Indian products are lower than those on competitors such as China. While the discussions started some time ago, many believe that the Donald Trump administration’s tariff measures will help Indian firms expand their presence in the US market. The US has imposed an additional 34 per cent tariff on China, a major exporter of consumer electronics and consumer durables, on top of the 20 per cent introduced in two rounds earlier this year, bringing the total tariff on China to 54 per cent. Other major consumer Importers signal willingness, but warn of drawn-out talks SUBHAYAN CHAKRABORTY New Delhi, 6 April W ith India making it clear that the US doesn’t have enough spare capacity for crude oil, Washington, DC, now wants India to sign fixed-term liquefied natural gas (LNG) contracts with American producers, multiple sources in the know said. “The US currently doesn’t have enough crude volumes ready for offtake. The planned rise in production will take some time to arrive. We have communicated this. The discussion has thus been on establishing term contracts for LNG with (US) suppliers,” a petroleum and natural gas ministry official said. This dovetails with India’s efforts to raise its overall LNG imports, given that its energy import basket is currently dominated by crude oil, he said, indicating the government welcomes talks between companies on both sides. However, such discussions have historically been drawn out over a long period with US companies, he stressed. State-owned GAIL (India) had, in December 2011, signed a 20-year sale and purchase agreement with US-based Cheniere Energy Partners for the supply of 3.5 million tonnes of LNG annually, with deliveries commencing in 2017. Supplies began flowing in from 2018. According to the International Energy Agency, the gap between contracted LNG supply and projected LNG requirements is set to widen markedly after 2028, leaving India more exposed to the volatility of the spot LNG market unless additional LNG contracts are secured in the coming years. Meanwhile, in the April– December period of 2024–25, LNG imports stood at $11.6 billion, or 2.12 per cent of overall merchandise imports. By comparison, crude oil imports were nearly 10x higher at $109.3 billion, or 20 per cent of overall imports. The US and Qatar — the two largest producers globally — currently supply India with LNG through multiple con- US LNG GAINING GROUND IN INDIA LNG import from US ($ bn) Share of US LNG in total LNG imports (%) 2019-20 2020-21 6.86 0.66 14.08 1.10 IMAGING:AJAY MOHANTY SHARLEEN D'SOUZA IN FOR GAINS Dixon Technologies has begun basic discussions with US importers, particularly for television panels Super Plastronics plans to explore the US market, calling India one of the cheapest TV manufacturing bases Amber is preparing to export air conditioner motors and ACs to the US television panels, washing machines, air conditioners, and other home appliances. “We have already begun basic dialogue with importers for categories like television panels. We are also exploring other consumer durable categories as US importers see India and Dixon Technologies as a favourable option,” Atul Lall, managing director at Dixon Technologies (India), told Business Standard. Avneet Singh Marwah, CEO of Super Plastronics, is also of the opinion that India now has an opportunity to become a favourable destination for electronics and consumer durables exports and the current tariffs will see a sudden shift to India. “The US will look at importing televi- Early-stage talks follow the US’ move to raise tariffs on countries like China, Vietnam, and Thailand durables and electronics manufacturers in Asia include Vietnam and Thailand. The US has imposed a 46 per cent tariff on Vietnam and 36 per cent on Thailand. Consequently, India has become a favourable destination for exports due to lower tariffs, which now stands at 26 per cent. The US will be looking to import television sets, sion panels, washing machines, and other categories. We will start exploring the US as an option and India will be one of the cheapest television manufacturers in the world compared to other Asian countries,” Singh said, adding that the company is looking for some clarity on tariffs. Sudhir Goyal, chief financial officer at Amber Enterprises India, a company looking to export air conditioner motors and air conditioners to the US, said that the company has been preparing to export to the US for a while. “The tariffs will give Indian suppliers a leg up compared to other countries. This will help US importers to move orders to India at a faster speed. There is a big delta in costs with competing countries,” Goyal said. 2021-22 1.90 14.12 2022-23 1.88 11.02 BUSINESS STANDARD POLL 10.50 ~ outlook steady amid tariff turmoil 2023-24 1.41 2.29 2024-25* 19.10 *Figures for April-December; Source:Commerce Department tracts. The third-largest producer, Australia, mostly supplies China. About half of India’s local gas demand is met through imports. On the other hand, while gas meets only 6.7 per cent of India’s energy needs, the Centre has been planning to raise this figure substantially to reduce dependence on petroleum. US LNG shipments are expected to double by the end of this decade, driven by Trump administration policies, including the reversal of a temporary pause on pending decisions regarding LNG exports to nonfree trade agreement nations. This pause had been imposed by the previous Joe Biden administration in January 2024. Data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) show LNG shipments to India began rising rapidly from early 2020 as the pandemic hit. Monthly traded volumes rose to a high of 28,259 million cubic feet (mcf) in May 2021 before falling. Volumes stood at 13,698 mcf as of October 2023, after which the EIA discontinued publishing monthly data. Finding the price Finding the right price is also a challenge, an official with a public sector oil and gas major said. “Globally, term contracts are available only periodically. But a large volume of gas is expected to reach the markets from this year onwards. It will be incumbent on the importing entity to factor in changes in prices over time to ensure the contract doesn’t end up being more expensive than necessary,” the official said. India’s demand for spot cargoes of LNG is expected to decline as importers shift towards medium- and longterm contracts over the next two years, as a result of multiple deals that come into effect from April onwards, S&P Global Commodity Insights said last month. But the higher reliance on term contracts could be poorly timed, as the market expects a flush of new supply that could drive spot prices lower, leaving Indian buyers exposed to more expensive contracted LNG, it pointed out in a note. Historically, LNG prices were linked to oil prices via long-term contracts. But in the past 10–15 years, especially with the rise of spot LNG markets like the Japan/Korea Marker in Asia, prices have become more volatile. LNG prices are highly seasonal due to heating demand in Europe and summer demand in Japan and China. Experts peg rupee at 85.50 against dollar by June; RBI expected to boost dollar purchases ANJALI KUMARI CURRENCY TRAIL Mumbai, 6 April With Donald Trump’s reciprocal tariff policy raising concerns over US growth prospects and weakening the dollar, the rupee is expected to remain stable over the next few months, allowing the Indian central bank to shore up its foreign exchange (forex) reserves. After touching record lows multiple times between December and February, the Indian unit made a sharp recovery from March onwards, gaining 0.44 per cent so far in 2025 against the dollar. According to the median estimate from a Business Standard poll, the rupee is expected to trade at 85.5 per dollar by June-end, and 85.75 by September-end. The Indian unit closed at 85.24 per dollar on Friday, compared to its previous close of 85.44. “A much more muted pace of rupee depreciation is likely, as dollar weakness is expected to persist amid weakening US growth. The reciprocal tariffs announced by President Trump were far steeper than After hitting record lows several times between December and February, ~ has recovered since March, gaining 0.44% against the dollar in 2025 so far (~ vs $) Financial institutions Jun-end ICICI Bank 84.50-86.50 IDFC First Bank 85.50 Karur Vysya Bank 86.20 Shinhan Bank 84.50 - 86.50 CR Forex 84.70-85.20 Mecklai Financial Services 86.20 Bank of Baroda 85.50-86.50 HDFC Bank 84.50-85.60 STCI Primary Dealership 84.60- 86 Finrex Treasury Advisors 86.00 Median 85.5 expected and not tied to tariff differentials,” said Gaura Sen Gupta, chief economist at IDFC First Bank. “The impact on global growth and US GDP is likely to be more pronounced, given the broad-based nature of the tariffs. With global conditions remaining volatile, we expect flows to emerging markets to stay muted. Meanwhile, the Sep-end 85.50-87.50 86.00 87 85.40- 87.95 83.50-84.00 87.50 85.50-87 85-86 NA 85 85.75 Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is likely to absorb any improvement in capital inflows to build its forex reserves, given its large negative forward book,” she added. On Friday, the rupee strengthened past the 85-perdollar mark to touch 84.95, tracking a drop in the dollar index. Markets had expected the RBI to step in with dollar purchases in the forex market, but its absence surprised traders. The rupee crossed the 85-per-dollar mark for the first time this calendar year and for the first time since December 18, 2024. The Indian currency had depreciated 2.42 per cent against the greenback in the previous financial year. The RBI’s net short dollar position in the forward market stood at $77.5 billion as of endJanuary, according to central bank data. A portion of this was due to mature by March, while the remaining $30.6 billion — spread across sixmonth and one-year swaps — is expected to begin maturing in April. India currently faces a relatively softer tax rate of 26 per cent compared to regional peers such as China, Vietnam, and Thailand — an advantage that has helped buoy up sentiment in the currency market. While the RBI has not been intervening aggressively for now, markets expect it to resume dollar accumulation soon. “There’s a lot of uncertainty right now, with risk aversion taking hold. Given Trump’s ego and the ongoing trade wars, it’s very difficult to predict rates,” said Anil Kumar Bhansali, head of treasury and executive director at Finrex Treasury Advisors LLP. “However, assuming calm returns in the next three to six months, India — being one of the lowest tariff countries in Asia, in talks with the US on tariffs, and among the fastestgrowing economies — could see the rupee appreciate. Trump doesn’t like currency manipulation, after all.” In March, the rupee regained strength against the dollar, buoyed up by fresh inflows after hitting new lows earlier in the year. The RBI intervened in the forex market to curb excess volatility and conducted buy/sell swap auctions, injecting rupee liquidity into the banking system and supporting the currency amid global uncertainty. As a result, the rupee strengthened through March, recovering from nearly 88 per dollar and regaining all its calendar-year losses. Indian metal firms bank Exporters must be ready to prove origin of goods to US Customs on domestic demand Indian metal companies are gearing up for significant expansions in the current financial year, focusing on growing domestic demand, notwithstanding global trade headwinds. While the United States has announced certain tariffs on metals, companies like Vedanta, JSW Steel, Hindustan Zinc, and NALCO are also betting on India’s strong demand, the global race for critical minerals, and strategic geographic diversification to drive growth, analysts said. Industry experts predict aluminium demand will double every five years, supported by the Indian government’s allocation of ~11.21 trillion for infra development in the 2025-26 Budget. As other countries face higher tariffs, firms may look to diversify production into India, creating a positive spillover effect on domestic demand. Companies like Vedanta, Hindustan Zinc, and others with a strong domestic focus would thus be relatively insulated. “The sharp fall in metal stocks across the board was a knee-jerk reaction. Going forward, the market will favour companies that derive the bulk of their revenues from domestic operations. We thus expect stocks of these companies to do better going forward,” said an analyst at a leading domestic brokerage. PRESS TRUST INDIA EXIM MATTERS T N C RAJAGOPALAN President Donald Trump of the United States has imposed ‘reciprocal tariffs’ on imports from various countries. With this abandonment of the policy to impose the same tariffs on imports from most countries, nearly all governments, businesses, and economists are busy examining the shortand medium-term implications of this change. The executives at the operating levels are, however, grappling with a different question — how the US Customs will determine that the imported goods originate from a particular country. Rules of origin (RoO) are used by most countries to implement measures such as anti-dumping duties and antisubsidy countervailing duties, and also to determine whether to charge normal or lower duties based on where the imported goods are produced. They are also used for purposes such as trade statistics, application of labelling and marking requirements, and government procurement. RoO in most countries are transparent and administered in a consistent, uniform, impartial, and reasonable manner. RoO vary depending on whether an importer claims a preferential rate of duty on the imported goods under any free/preferential/regional trade agreement. Where no import duty concessions are being claimed, a simple declaration or certificate by the exporter on their invoice or a non-preferential certificate of origin (CoO) issued by an authorised trade body like a chamber of commerce is usually accepted by the Customs in the importing country. Normally, such declarations or certificates are given quite freely if the goods are available from nature in the exporting country or the goods are manufactured by the exporter using inputs procured domestically. Where foreign-origin inputs are used, the goods still get the originating status if the processes carried out in the exporting country result in a new commodity and exceed certain specified basic operations like repacking, rela- belling, simple assembly, dis- ing country. assembly, etc. US laws require the presenRoO for claiming lower tation of a preferential CoO duty rates under trade agree- only for the clearance of ments usually prescribe imported goods at lower minimum value duty rates under addition in the trade agreements. exporting country Most goods, barif foreign-origin ring very few materials are exceptions, used used in making to enter the US at the goods. The the normal duty texts of the rates applicable rules differ under for imports from each trade agreeall countries, with Rules of origin are ment and they or without a decused by countries always form part laration/certifito implement of every trade cate of the measures like agreement. exporter or a nonanti-subsidy Invariably, the preferential CoO. countervailing rules require the Since the last few duties, antipresentation to weeks, however, dumping duties the Customs in US Customs have the importing started asking for country of a prefdetails of foreignerential CoO issued by a gov- origin inputs used for making ernment agency in the export- the goods and their value. FinMin to study EPFO, global models for UPS investment plan Decision on investing Centre’s UPS contribution to be finalised in 3–4 mths ASIT RANJAN MISHRA New Delhi, 6 April The finance ministry will examine global best practices and draw insights from the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO) investment experience before finalising its strategy for investing the government’s contribution under the Unified Pension Scheme (UPS), which came into effect on April 1. “We are still deciding how the government will invest its contribution. We will have some mechanism for it. There will be an investment committee. We will take three to four months to finalise it. We are trying to understand how other countries do it. We will also be studying how EPFO invests its money as it has long experience in it,” a senior government official said. According to the current pattern of investment notified by the labour ministry in April 2015, the EPFO can invest anywhere between 5 per cent and 15 per cent of its fresh accretions in the equity market through the exchange-traded fund (ETF) route only. Canada Pension Plan (CPP) invests 40-50 per cent of its funds in equities, while Japan’s THE FINE PRINT EPFO’s investment approach and global practices under review Employees must choose between NPS and UPS by June 30; decision will be final UPS came into effect on April 1; approved in August last year UPS offers guaranteed pension: 50% of average basic pay over last 12 months (vs 10 months in OPS) Govt contribution raised from 14% to 18.5% of basic pay + DA; employee share at 10% The scheme will benefit over 2.3 million central government employees Government Pension Investment Fund allocates about 25 per cent to equities, including domestic and foreign markets. Minimum qualifying service raised from 20 to 25 years (vs OPS) Pension under UPS starts at 60; in OPS, it began immediately post-retirement The UPS was approved by the central government in August last year to provide a guaranteed pension to retirees with a minimum of 25 years of service. The pension will be equivalent to 50 per cent of their average basic pay from the last 12 months prior to retirement. The government’s contribution under UPS has been increased from 14 to 18.5 per cent of basic pay and dearness allowance while employee contribution will remain at 10 per cent. The scheme is likely to benefit over 2.3 million central government employees. Existing and future employees will also have the option of joining the National Pension Scheme (NPS) or UPS by June 30. The choice, once exercised, will be final. Provisions of the UPS would also apply to past retirees of the NPS. According to the government, the expenditure for arrears will be ~800 crore. The annual cost increase will be around ~6,250 crore in the first year. The official said that till the gov- Now, with country-specific tariffs, the US Customs may not be satisfied with a mere declaration or certificate of the exporter or a non-preferential CoO and may ask for 'proof of origin', as the Indian Customs do for imports under trade agreements. The executives at the operating levels wonder what documents the US Customs will call for to establish the origin of the goods. They apprehend the hold-up of goods by the US Customs for origin verification. It is likely that the US Customs will prescribe some additional documentation to confirm the origin of the goods. Till then, Indian exporters should be ready to furnish adequate documents to prove the origin of the goods. Email : tncrajagopalan@gmail.com ernment takes a decision on how to invest its contribution, the money will remain in the default investment pattern split in equities and bonds. “Suppose, we decide after three months that 50 per cent of the money should be invested in equities, then we will allocate accordingly,” the government official added. According to the default option under NPS, the maximum equity exposure is capped at 50 per cent. And, it gradually decreases every year as the retirement of employees approaches. In March 2023, the Narendra Modi government had set up a committee led by former finance secretary T V Somanathan to explore ways to improve pension benefits under NPS without reverting to the non-contributory old pension system (OPS), which has been deemed financially unsustainable. ECONOMY & PUBLIC AFFAIRS 5 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 < . IN BRIEF FinMin set to implement 'One State-One RRB' soon RUCHIKA CHITRAVANSHI per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) increase in capex. The Centre’s capex for February 2025 contracted by 35 per cent The government is confident of Y-o-Y with the overall spend for surpassing the revised estithe April-February FY25 mates (RE) for capital period at 79.7 per cent of the expenditure (capex) of RE. This is against 85 per ~10.18 trillion for FY25 cent last year, according to based on the advance the latest CGA data. numbers, two top govThe pace of capex in ernment officials said. the first half of the current “The numbers we financial year had suffered have received so far, even on account of elections though not for the full and the model code of To meet the conduct. financial year, indicate RE would require a The government had that we are likely to 44% Y-o-Y increase revised downwards its exceed the revised target in capex capex estimate by about of capex,” one of the gov~93,000 crore compared to ernment officials said. the Budget Estimate (BE) The data released by the Controller General of Accounts for FY25. The capex allocation for FY26 has (CGA) for April-February FY25 showed that the government is falling short of seen an increase of less than 1 per cent. Defending the government position meeting its revised capex target by over on capital expenditure, Finance ~2 trillion for the full financial year. To meet the RE would require a 44 Minister Nirmala Sitharaman had New Delhi, 6 April The finance ministry will soon implement the ‘One State-One RRB’ plan to achieve operational efficiency and cost rationalisation and consolidation of 43 regional rural banks (RRBs) to 28. Most of the work related to the issue of consolidation have been completed and the fourth round would happen soon, according to sources.As per the roadmap prepared by the finance ministry, 15 RRBs operating in various states would be merged. PTI Farmer leader Dallewal ends hunger strike after 130 days Punjab farmer leader Jagjit Singh Dallewal on Sunday ended his hunger strike, which he had started on November 26 last year, to press for various demands of agitating farmers including a legal guarantee on the minimum support price for crops.The announcement came a day after Union Agriculture Minister Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Union Minister of State for Railways Ravneet Singh Bittu appealed to him to end his fast-unto-death.Dallewal announced that he was ending his indefinite fast at a 'Kisan Mahapanchayat' organised at the grain market in Sirhind in Fatehgarh Sahib district of Punjab. At the same time, he asserted that their fight for the legal guarantee on MSP for crops will continue. PTI Weekend update India, Sri Lanka sign 5-year defence cooperation pact India and Sri Lanka have expanded their defence ties with a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed on Saturday during Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the island nation. The MoU would remain in force for five years, Sri Lanka’s top defence official Sampath Thuiyakontha said. “India annually trains around 750 Sri Lankan military personnel. This defence partnership continues to be an invaluable asset,” Thuiyakontha said. He added that the decision to formalise the MoU was reached during the 2023 defence dialogue , with the Sri Lankan cabinet approving PTI the agreement in January this year. Tata Capital files for $2-bn IPO via confidential route Tata Group’s financial services arm, Tata Capital, has filed draft papers with markets regulator Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) for a $2-billion initial public offering (IPO) through the confidential pre-filing route. At this size, the company is expected to be valued at around $11 billion, according to sources. In a stock exchange filing, Tata Capital said, “The firm has filed the pre-filed draft red herring prospectus on April 4, 2025, under the Sebi Regulations, 2018, with Sebi, BSE, and NSE in connection with its IPO of equity shares of face value of ~10 each.” PTI > MPC meet to FY25 capex may surpass RE of ~10.18 trn begin amid rate cut buzz ANJALI KUMARI Mumbai, 6 April T he meeting of the sixmember monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will start on Monday — the first in the current financial year — amid expectations of another 25 basis points (bps) cut in the policy repo rate though there are outside chances of a higher rate reduction. Also, focus will be on liquidity-related measures to boost transmission of policy rates to bank lending and deposit rates. The central bank had a series of meetings with bankers in the run up to the policy, for feedback on the liquidity framework. A revised liquidity framework is also on cards. The April MPC meeting is in the backdrop of the reciprocal tariffs announced by US President Donald Trump last week, which is expected to impact domestic growth. It is to be seen if the central bank now prioritises growth over inflation — which is expected to print below the target of 4 per cent for the next few months — by changing the stance to accommodative from neutral. “We are tracking Q4 FY25 real GDP growth at 6.7 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y), implying average GDP growth of 6.2 per cent for FY25. If realised, this would be 30 bps lower than the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) and RBI's 6.5 per cent Y-o-Y forecast,” economists at Barclays said in a note. “As the RBI MPC is faced with inflation and growth outcomes that are below their estimated trajectory, it opens policy space to deliver a second successive policy repo rate cut… given the meaningful under- Any move on change in stance will be watched keenly shoot versus estimated CPI inflation, there is a strong case for the MPC to deliver a nonstandard 35 bps cut,” the note said. Barclays base case for an April rate cut is 25 bps. After infusing close to ~8 trillion of durable liquidity between January and March, the central bank, in a surprise move, announced a ~80,000crore bond purchase programme through open market operations last week. Sovereign bond yields plunged to their lowest levels in three years after the announcement. The move was aimed at providing adequate liquidity to the banking system to ensure transmission of policy rates, just before a much-anticipated interest rate cut. “We also expect RBI to keep the liquidity taps open, and the central bank has used its variable rate repo operations, bond purchases, and forward swaps to augment liquidity conditions,” Bank of America said in a report on the last week of March. The six-member rate setting panel reduced the repo rate by 25 bps in February – a rate cut which came after almost five years. All members of the MPC unanimously voted for a rate reduction. recently told Parliament that the government had not slowed down its capex push. She had said, “Capital expenditure has not been cut at all. From ~11.11 trillion in the FY25 Budget, capex allocation has gone up to ~11.21 trillion in FY26. Capital assistance to states has also gone up proportionately.” Experts feel that even with focus on fiscal consolidation, the government has to continue pushing capex, which has multiplier effects on the economy, in order to achieve the next leg of gross domestic product (GDP) growth. “If the government’s investment expenditure falls short of the revised estimates, which were themselves significantly lower than the budget estimates of ~11.1 trillion, achieving the implied fourth quarter GDP growth of 7.6 per cent (6.5 per cent growth in FY25) may become challenging,” D K Srivastava, chief policy advisor, EY India said in the March edition of EY Economy Watch. volumes New retail inflation Securitisation see a sequential slump series to include rural housing prices ABHIJIT LELE Mumbai, 6 April SHIVA RAJORA New Delhi , 6 April The new consumer price index series will measure housing inflation in rural areas, in tune with shifting consumption patterns and emergence of rental markets beyond urban centres, official sources said. At present, housing is only measured as a part of urban inflation because there are only a minuscule number of rented homes in rural areas. “Over the past few years, it has been observed in consumption surveys that people are spending on house rent in rural areas as well. While people traditionally spent on housing in urban areas only, a change in preference and increased mobility for work and other reasons means that the housing market is also flourishing in rural areas,” one of the sources said. The new CPI series with an updated base year is slated to come into effect in February 2026, along with a new series for other macro indicators like gross domestic product and index of industrial production. The statistics ministry will be using 2024 as the base year for the upcoming CPI series. The Household Consumption Expenditure Survey (HCES) 202223 released last year is being used to prepare this new series. HCES 2022-23 showed that the average monthly per capita expenditure (MPCE) on “housing” in rural areas increased nearly five times to ~30 from ~7 spent during the previous HCES which was conducted in 2011-12. As a share of total expenditure, its share doubled to 0.8 per cent from 0.4 per cent during the same period. In contrast, the average MPCE on housing in urban areas stood at ~423 in 2022-23 from ~160 in 201112. As a share of total expenditure, it stood at 6.6 per cent in 2022-23. Securitisation – sale of loans to investors – by lenders, including banks and non-banking financial companies (NBFCs), crossed ~50,000 crore during the fourth quarter ended March 2025 (Q4F25). This is a tad higher than ~48,000 crore during the same period of FY24. However, sequentially, securitisation volumes declined substantially from about ~69,000 crore each in the second and third quarters of FY25, according to rating agency ICRA. The sequential decline reflected part of an improvement in liquidity conditions. A few players, including private banks, who securitised higher volumes in Q2 & Q3, were less active in the final quarter of the financial year, analysts and bankers said. Securitisation involves pooling similar assets, such as mortgages, auto loans, or credit card debt, and then repackaging them into securities like pass through certificates (PTCs). The lenders, especially banks, buy a pool of loans to meet priority sector lending norms. ICRA data showed that securitisation volumes were about ~2.35 trillion for financial year FY25, up from ~1.9 trillion in FY24. Sachin Joglekar, group co-head of structured finance ratings, ICRA, said there was sluggishness in loan disbursements among NBFCs in microfinance and other unsecured asset classes in the fourth quarter. MCA proposes tweaks to rules related to fast-track mergers Internal restructuring to ensure seamless solutions: Yes Bank The Ministry of Corporate Affairs (MCA) has proposed widening the scope of the present rules for mergers and amalgamations to include more unlisted companies, and subsidiaries of companies which are not just wholly owned, under the fast-track mechanism. The fast-track mechanism for mergers requires no involvement of the National Company Law Tribunal and can be availed by small companies, startups, and for mergers between holding companies and their wholly owned subsidiaries. The MCA has proposed that unlisted firms that have reasonable debt exposure of less than ~50 crore and have not defaulted on repayment can go through the fast track mechanism under BS REPORTER Section 233 of the Companies Act. SUBRATA PANDA Mumbai, 6 April Private sector lender Yes Bank said that the organisational streamlining underway now is aimed at harnessing synergies across all functions to optimise efficiencies and enhance customer experience. The internal restructuring is a strategic initiative designed to ensure seamless and consistent solutions at every touchpoint, aimed at strengthening the bank’s position as a customer-centric institution, it said. Recent media reports suggested Yes Bank has revamped teams across retail, corporate, part of our organisational streamlining proand commercial banking as part of its restruc- cess, we are harnessing synergies across all turing exercise, and has laid off four senior functions to optimise efficiencies and enhance employees with immediate effect. customer experience. This restrucThe four senior employees who turing is a strategic step to ensure Four senior were asked to step down include seamless and consistent solutions at employees of Akshay Sapru, head of affluent and every touchpoint, aligning with our the lender were private banking, Dhaval Shah, core values of agility and innovareportedly head of small- and medium-sized tion.” asked to step enterprises banking, Sanjiv Roy, Additionally, the spokesperson down recently head of fee business, and Pankaj said that the bank’s focus is driving Sharma, chief strategy officer. profitable growth while delivering In response to Business Standard’s queries, unparalleled service and convenience to our an official spokesperson of the bank said, “As customers. “As Yes Bank embarks on the next phase of its transformational journey, we remain committed to strengthening our position as a customer-centric bank”, the spokesperson said further. Yes Bank’s shares fell 4.18 per cent on Friday to close at ~17.2 on the BSE, after the bank disclosed in its January-March quarter (Q4FY25) update that its advances grew 8.2 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) and 0.7 per cent sequentially to ~2.46 trillion while its deposits grew 6.8 per cent Y-o-Y and 2.6 per cent sequentially to ~2.84 trillion. The current account savings account ratio stood at 34.3 per cent, an improvement of 12 basis points from the preceding quarter. FROM PAGE 1 CEOs say will invest No ‘one-size-fits-all’ as exporters brace for fragmented pricing more in India: BS poll “The Indian government should review the duty on American goods because our imports are much less. Except for agri goods, there should be no problem,” said the CEO of a large group. Another CEO said India should negotiate hard with the US and take this as an opportunity. India, say CEOs, should work on negotiations with the US by establishing bilateral trade agreements, including buying more US goods. Earlier, M&M Chairman Anand Mahindra had said India should have a measured reaction to the tariff imposition and respond in a way that does not jeopardise India’s long-term strategic interests. “We must build scenarios of the policies we should rapidly adopt to leverage the situation and emerge as the first and most reliable economic partner of countries around the world,” Mahindra said on a social media platform. According to the survey, a majority of Indian CEOs (73.33 per cent) are not making changes to their strategies to meet the challenge of higher tariffs. Twenty per cent of them, however, are negotiating a new supply chain, while the rest are looking for new export markets. “We see more competition in the Latin American and African markets, as several players (including larger ones) will try to diversify from the US and, as a result, competition will increase in the African and Latin American markets, where players like us have been operating,” said the CEO of a mid-sized pharma company. While 40 per cent of respondents said they foresaw long-term impact from the tariff, a similar number said they were unsure. Almost all CEOs said they would invest more in India. While 33.33 per cent said they would invest overseas, an equal number said they were unsure. (Dev Chatterjee with Ishita Ayan Dutt, Roshni Shekhar, Sohini Das, Sharleen D'Souza, Abhishek Kumar, Puja Das, Prachi Pisal and Udisha Srivastav) “There’s uncertainty at the moment. Buyers are calculating their liquidity position in view of the tariff hike. They will also need to assess whether their buying volume will remain the same or be reduced. This assessment will have to be made across all countries,” Sahai said. Overall, every country’s exports to the US will slow down as a result of this drastic step, dampening demand for at least the next few weeks. Chandrima Chatterjee, secretary general of the Confederation of Indian Textile Industry, said some buyers were asking for discounts, although the full picture would emerge in a couple of weeks. Chatterjee further noted that India’s neighbouring rivals, such as Vietnam, had already offered zero-duty access to the US. If accepted, it would impact India’s competitiveness in the textile sector. The US has announced a 46 per cent reciprocal tariff on Vietnam. Two Gujarat-based midsized exporters said that no negotiations had begun with buyers yet, as clarity is still to emerge on the implications. “The situation is quite volatile. So, as of now, no negotiations on price have begun. As manufacturers and exporters, we don’t yet know how much tariff will be levied, how much we can absorb, and to what extent we can pass it on. Therefore, it’s too early for negotiations,” said the promoter of one firm. He added that they were keeping a close watch on raw material prices. “China is likely to keep prices competitive, as it is facing a 34 per cent tariff. With its massive capacities, it needs markets. So, raw material prices are likely to remain competitive,” he said. The US has exempted imports of pharmaceuticals, energy, and certain minerals from reciprocal tariffs. However, Trump has said he plans to impose additional tariffs on pharmaceuticals. The quantum and timelines are not yet known. Bhavin Mehta, vice-chairman of the Pharmaceuticals Export Promotion Council of India, echoed this view, saying raw material prices might stay competitive due to China’s excess capacities. “In the past two to three years, China has built huge active pharmaceutical ingredient capacities, and with the US market becoming a tough entry, it would need to sell its production somewhere. Hence, prices may remain competitive,” he explained. Exporters say each company might take a different approach. “Everyone has a different strategy for sourcing and will price accordingly. So, there’s unlikely to be any uniform negotiation — it will be on a caseby-case basis,” said a veteran executive who previously headed a large pharmaceutical firm in Mumbai. Tiruppur, which contributes to around 55 per cent of India’s total knitwear exports, has already started seeing demands from customers in the US for discounts. Manufacturers indicate that as they operate with a squeezed margin of 5-6 per cent, it will be difficult to give huge discounts to match the Trump tariff, which may result in the global majors passing on the burden to customers. “This tariff is coming at a time when the industry is performing well. We may be able to provide a maximum of around 2 per cent discount,” said K M Subramanian, president of the Tiruppur Exporters’ Association. The region saw exports worth ~33,600 crore in FY24. Global brands that source from Tiruppur belt include GAP, H&M, Tommy Hilfiger, Carter’s, and Walmart, among others. IT firms to focus on cost efficacy Jones said large enterprises would continue to optimise costs through large deal activity. “That is the reason we saw so many mega deals last year, because companies were looking to fundamentally change their cost structures through technology and transformational modernisation, which IT services firms excel at. In exchange, they are signing up for longer-term deals, increasing the total contract value.” > BS SUDOKU #4548 FY26 growth forecast revision hinges on domestic demand “Our growth forecast is also heavily reliant on domestic demand conditions improving materially. Both monetary and fiscal accommodation would need to be frontloaded to drive this. In the absence of a strong domestic demand recovery (due to weather-related disruptions with risk of heatwaves emerging, increased financial market volatility, inflation spikes, etc) or a more severe downturn in the global economy (full-blown trade war with retaliation from other countries), we would need to revise down our growth estimates for FY26 significantly,” she added. The Ministry of Finance’s latest Monthly Economic Review — released before Trump’s April 2 reciprocal tariff announcement — said geopolitical tensions, increasing uncertainty around trade policies, volatility in international commodity prices, and the financial market posed major risks to the outlook for growth. “However, if the private sector were to invest in the economy, banking on the resilience of the Indian economy and its steady growth outlook, it would overpower the risks to the growth outlook considerably,” it said. The report said the proposed changes in the personal incometax structure were expected to improve the disposable incomes of the middle class and their consumption. “The 25-bp policy rate cut in February, as part of a more accommodative monetary policy and enhanced liquidity provisions, can also bolster the growth momentum. The Union Budget’s focus on longer-term development drivers and reforms, anchored around the ambition of Viksit Bharat, adds to the confidence in domestic economic resilience amid significant global uncertainties,” it added. SOLUTION TO #4547 Hard: Solution tomorrow HOW TO PLAY Fill in the grid so that every row, every column and every 3x3 box contains the digits 1 to 9 6 WORLD NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > N US RECIPROCAL TARIFFS’ FALLOUT N 50 countries reach ‘Hands Off!’ protests spread across out to White House US, Europe to oppose Trump agenda for trade talks Protesters rallied around the US against President Donald Trump and Elon Musk, seeking to defend the country from an administration they say threatens basic civil rights and calling for a halt in efforts to downsize the government. More than 1,200 ‘Hands Off!’ demonstrations were planned in all 50 states, the Associated Press reported. Organisers included civil rights groups, labour unions, LGBTQ advocates, and veteran groups. Also, hundreds of people protested in European cities against Trump and Musk, following a bruising week for financial markets after Trump unveiled sweeping global reciprocal tariffs. Vietnam, Taiwan offer zero tariffs on US goods; Bessent allays recession fears AGENCIES 6 April M ore than 50 countries have contacted the White House in a scramble to open trade talks after US President Donald Trump announced sweeping reciprocal tariffs last week that have roiled global markets, sparked diplomatic outreach, and prompted fears of a looming recession. Top officials in the Trump administration moved quickly over the weekend to defend the controversial decision, which introduces acrossthe-board tariffs of 10 per cent on all US imports and targeted duties of up to 50 per cent on goods from nearly 60 countries. The new measures, which came into effect Saturday, are the most aggressive import levies imposed by the US in over a century. “We are repositioning the US in the global economy,” said US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent on NBC’s Meet the Press. Rejecting concerns that the tariffs would tip the economy into a downturn, Bessent insisted, “I see no reason why we have to price in a recession.” He added that any negotiations with affected countries would take time and be based on “believable” offers. But financial markets have already begun pricing in the pain. US equities shed $5 trillion in value in just two trading days following the announcement, the worst drop since the onset of the Covid-19 crises. Economists at JP Morgan have revised their outlook, now forecasting a US recession within the year. National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett also attempted to soothe markets, stating the tariffs were not intended to manipulate the Federal Reserve or crash stock prices, despite Trump’s reposting of a video that implied as much. “There will be no political coercion of the Fed,” Hassett said. Hassett told ABC News that Trump’s tariffs had so far driven “more than 50” countries to contact the White House to begin trade talks. Taiwan’s President Lai Ching-te on Sunday offered zero tariffs as the basis for talks with the US, pledging to remove trade barriers rather than imposing reciprocal measures and saying Taiwanese companies will raise their US investments. Vietnam has taken perhaps the most conciliatory stance. In a letter sent to President Trump on April 5, Vietnamese Communist Party chief To Lam offered to eliminate all tariffs on US imports in exchange for a delay or reversal of the 46 per cent tariff Washington imposed on Vietnamese goods. The letter, seen by Bloomberg, also asked for at least a 45-day postponement of the measures set to take effect on April 9. Vietnam’s overture comes as the country has emerged as a major manufacturing hub and WE COULD SEE FROM THE JOB NUMBER, WHICH WAS WELL ABOVE EXPECTATIONS, THAT WE ARE MOVING FORWARD. SO I SEE NO REASON WHY WE HAVE TO PRICE IN A RECESSION” 1 AGENCIES SCOTT BESSENT, US TREASURY SECRETARY Starmer vows steps to bolster UK economy UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer said he’ll announce measures this week to support Britain’s economy and businesses amid the threat posed by Donald Trump’s tariffs. Writing in The Telegraph, Starmer said, “The world as we knew it has gone. We must rise to meet the moment.” The US president last week announced sweeping global tariffs, including a 10 per cent levy on British goods, despite a weeks-long push for an economy deal by the UK government. Measures could be unveiled as early as this week may include emergency reforms. 2 3 Demonstrators take part in a ‘Hands Off!’ protest against US President Donald Trump and his advisor Elon Musk in Los Angeles (1), in Portsmouth (2), near Washington Monument (3), and at Trafalgar Square in London (4) over the weekend PHOTO: AP/PTI, REUTERS JLR may look to clear US inventory fast SOHINI DAS MAJOR MARKET Mumbai, 6 April BLOOMBERG alternative to China, with deepening economic ties to the United States. Trump acknowledged the outreach in a Truth Social post following a call with Lam. Meanwhile, Malaysia has announced it will lead a regional diplomatic push through Asean to address the tariffs. Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim said in a video address on Sunday that the country, as Asean’s current chair, will seek to coordinate a unified response to maintain “open and resilient supply chains”. Beyond Asia, long-time US allies are also grappling with the impact. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is expected to meet Trump in Washington this week after Israeli exports were hit with a 17 per cent US tariff. “I hope President Trump will ease the burden,” Netanyahu said on Sunday as he concluded a visit to Hungary and departed for Washington. Despite criticism and market volatility, the Trump administration appears in no mood to pull back. Officials believe that the shock to the system will force countries to revise trade policies that they argue have long disadvantaged the United States. Tata Motors’ luxury arm Jaguar Land Rover (JLR), which has announced a pause on shipments to the United States, is expected to clear its current inventory in the market sooner than anticipated, analysts believe. JLR is estimated to have between one and two months’ worth of inventory in the US, according to a Mumbaibased analyst who spoke on condition of anonymity. Another analyst noted that with the company halting exports, this stock could deplete more quickly. Typically, it takes at least twothree weeks for shipments to reach the US from the UK and other parts of Europe. “The USA is an important market for JLR’s luxury brands,” the company said in a statement on Saturday. “As we work to address the new trading terms with our business partners, we are enacting our planned short-term actions including a shipment pause in April, as we develop our mid- to longer-term plans.” Earlier, on April 2, JLR had stated ‘0 to 1939 in 3 secs’: Why anti-Musk satire is flourishing in Britain MICHAEL D SHEAR London, 6 April On the side of an East London bus stop, one of them shows Elon Musk, the world’s richest man, emerging from a Tesla’s roof with his hand pointing upward in a straight-armed salute. “Goes from 0 to 1939 in 3 seconds”, the ad reads. “Tesla. The Swasticar”. Another mock ad shows Musk and US President Trump in front of a red Tesla with the words: “Now With White Power Steering”. In North London, a fake movie billboard blares: “The Fast and the Führer”, with a picture of Musk saluting beside a Tesla with a DOGE licence plate, a reference to the budget-slashing federal agency he currently leads on behalf of Trump. “Parental Guidance”, warns the billboard, put up by a group calling itself Overthrow Musk. “Tesla’s CEO is a Far-Right activist. Don’t give him your money”. Across the British capital and in 4 Musk hopes for zero tariffs with EU someday Elon Musk told Italy League leader Matteo Salvini on Saturday that he hoped in the future the US and Europe could create “a very close, stronger partnership” and reach a “zero-tariff zone”. Musk spoke to Salvini in a video conference during the League’s congress in Florence. Salvini is the leader of the far-right, antimigrant League party and vicepremier of the Italian conservative government led by Premier Giorgia Meloni. REUTERS several European cities, Musk’s signature business has become the target of the same kind of political anger that has fuelled vandalism of Tesla cars in the US and sometimes n In FY24, JLR sold about 430,000 vehicles globally n US market accounted for 23% of its revenue, 26% of wholesale volumes n This share climbed to 33% in nine months ended December 31, 2024 that its luxury brands have a “global appeal” and that its business remains “resilient”, being accustomed to evolving market dynamics. “Our priorities are now delivering for our clients around the world and addressing these new US trading terms,” the company said. For the year ended March 2024, JLR sold approximately 430,000 vehicles globally. The US market accounted for 23 per cent of its revenue and 26 per cent of wholesale volumes during that financial year. That share climbed to 33 per cent in the nine months to December 31, 2024. Currently, JLR exports vehicles to the US primarily from its plants in “Takedown Tesla”. “Nobody who is that rich and powerful has behaved that outrageously”. In Europe, Musk is not just a faraway example of American wealth and power. Over the last year, he has become a frequent political meddler, often weighing in on behalf of FarRight causes on X, his social media platform, where he has 218 million followers. In Britain, Musk is known for sharing misinformation about a child rape scandal and calling for Prime Minister Keir Starmer to be jailed. Theodora Sutcliffe, a London resident who helped organise Tesla Takedown, said none of the people she works with are participating in violence. Instead, they have sought to find other ways to capture public attention. violent protests at his dealerships. There have been some instances of unruly protests and vandalism in Europe. But much of the anti-Musk sentiment has taken the form of political satire, of the kind that has flourished in Britain since at least the 18th century. Just outside Berlin, a group called the Center for Political Beauty used high-power lights to project the word “Heil” onto the side of a Tesla factory so that it read “Heil Tesla”, along with a picture of Musk saluting during a speech in Washington. In Italy, street art depicts Elon Musk taking off a mask to show Adolf Hitler’s face underneath. The words “Elon Mask” appear above the picture. “There’s never been a target exactly like this,” said John Gorenfeld, a software engineer who helped start a London-based group called ©2025 The New York Times News Service Solihull and Wolverhampton in the UK, as well as from a facility in Slovakia. Given that US automobile tariffs are set at a flat 25 per cent, the location of production is unlikely to influence pricing. The company has also indicated plans to establish a manufacturing facility in India in the medium term. “With no manufacturing facility in the US, all JLR vehicles will be subject to tariffs, which could impact pricing and profitability,” said Mrunmayee Joglekar, auto and FMCG research analyst at Asit C Mehta Investment Intermediates, a few days ago. Credit ratings agency Moody’s pointed out that while JLR’s customer base is typically less price-sensitive than that of mass-market brands, passing on the full tariff burden may prove difficult. “A decline in demand from the US, which accounts for nearly a third of JLR’s sales, would be credit negative,” the agency noted in a recent report. Nevertheless, key brands in the premium segment-- Range Rover, Range Rover Sport, and Defender -have shown price resilience. “The Defender, for instance, was earlier priced at an average of £45,000, which has now increased to £60,000. Further, the recent differentiated offering in the model, Defender Octa, is priced at almost £200,000 and is expected to be the biggest blockbuster launch in the Middle East. Customers in this price segment are willing to pay a significant premium for unique products that stand out as differentiated,” analysts at Motilal Oswal said in a March report. Analysts believe these three models have been effectively positioned as aspirational vehicles. The company is now aiming to reposition the Discovery line similarly. West Asia stocks suffer worst rout since 2020 on oil, trade shocks BLOOMBERG LOSING STREAK 6 April Saudi Arabian Oil Company ($ per share) Main equity benchmarks in West Asian countries, including Saudi Arabia, sank the most since 2020 on Sunday as investors reacted to the risks of a fresh global trade war and depressed oil prices. Stocks on the kingdom’s main exchange fell as much as 6.1 per cent, while gauges in Qatar and Kuwait dropped more than 5.5 per cent. Equities in Tel Aviv dropped the most since October 2023, when Hamas launched the deadly attack on Israel that sparked the start of the war in Gaza. All four stock markets were closed on Friday. Saudi Aramco — the world’s biggest oil exporter — was one of the biggest losers in the region. The company at one point erased more than $90 billion from its market capitalisation. Saudi Arabia cuts prices for Asia oil supply Saudi Arabia slashed its flagship oil price by the most in more than two years, just days after the Opec+ alliance announced an unexpectedly large output hike. Saudi Aramco will lower Arab Light crude to its biggest buyers in Asia by $2.30 a barrel for May, according to Bloomberg. While the MARKET CAP ($ trn) 8.16 1.70 1.61 9 April 3, ’25 April 6, ’25 -89.4 (chg $ bn) 8 6.64 7 6 Apr 6,’25 Apr 14,’24 Index Tadawul All Share Qatar Exchange Boursa Kuwait Premier Market Country Saudi Arabia Qatar Kuwait % 1-day chg -6.4 -4.2 -5.7 Note: Kuwait & Saudi Arabia index change over April 3 & Qatar over March 27 Source: Bloomberg large reduction comes on the back of some of the kingdom’s biggest price increases in years, the move was still bigger than expected in a survey of traders and refiners. IN BRIEF UK hits out at Israel for detaining 2 British MPs Meta launches Llama 4 models for multimodel AI Ukraine attacked energy infra, claims Russia 70 pro-Awami League lawyers jailed in B’desh The British government has described as “unacceptable” the detention of two Labour Party members of parliament in Israel after being denied entry for a proposed visit to the West Bank as part of a parliamentary delegation. Abtisam Mohamed, MP for Sheffield Central in northern England, and Yuan Yang, MP for Earley and Woodley in southeast England, said in a joint statement posted on social media on Sunday that they were “astounded” at the unprecedented step. Israel's immigration authority said the entry had been denied because the UK MPs intended to “spread hate speech” against Israel and were travelling to “document the security forces” amid the ongoing conflict with Hamas. PTI Meta Platforms Inc announced the release of its new Llama 4 artificial intelligence models, built on what the company says is one of the world’s most advanced large language models. At the core of the new Llama 4 family is Llama 4 Behemoth, a 2-trillion-parameter LLM that is still in training, with two distillations from it — dubbed Maverick and Scout — available right away for developers to build on and users to try via Meta’s apps or Meta.ai website. They come with the promise of being natively multimodal, meaning capable of working with a variety of media beyond text, and benchmark scores that Meta says puts BLOOMBERG them ahead of well-known competitors. Ukraine continues to carry out attacks on Russian energy infrastructure despite a US-brokered moratorium on strikes against energy facilities, the Russian Defence Ministry said on Sunday. According to the ministry, Ukrainian forces conducted seven such attacks over the last 24 hours in Crimea, Bryansk, Rostov, and Voronezh regions. In the Voronezh region, the attack damaged a gas distribution pipeline, the ministry said. In separate report the ministry said that Russian forces launched an overnight strike using long-range precision weapons and drones against Ukraine's central artillery armament base and defence industry REUTERS enterprises involved in drone production. A court on Sunday sent to prison 70 lawyers known for their support for the Awami League party to face charges of “assault” and “attempt to murder” of fellow advocates during last year's mass uprising that toppled then prime minister Sheikh Hasina’s government. Court officials said Dhaka's Metropolitan Sessions Judge Mohammad Zakir Hossain ordered the lawyers to be sent to prison after they appeared on the dock with bail pleas. The court, however, granted bail to nine female lawyers and Dhaka Bar's former president Abu Sayeed Sagor. Earlier, the lawyers secured anticipatory bail from the high court for eight weeks and surrendePTI red before the lower court after the period was exhausted. DISCLAIMER News reports and feature articles in Business Standard seek to present an unbiased picture of developments in the markets, the corporate world and the government. Actual developments can turn out to be different owing to circumstances beyond Business Standard’s control and knowledge. 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In what was a major negative signal for markets, China took a strong stance, tariffing US imports at 34 per cent to match the additional levy that Mr Trump had imposed on its exports. This was a straightforward tit for tat — unlike the US administration’s ersatz country-specific formula, which, in spite of claims, had nothing “reciprocal” to it. Beijing can perhaps take the risk of a strong line because it is now less dependent on direct exports to the US than it had been in the past — its producers are at the heart of a supply chain that spans multiple countries which have been hit with different tariff rates. Some of those have signalled a desperate willingness for a deal: Cambodia, heavily dependent on textile exports, faces a ruinous 49 per cent tariff and has voluntarily cut import tariffs to 5 per cent in response to the US action. Vietnam has similarly offered duty-free access to its markets to the US. It is far from certain that Mr Trump will respond positively — though many US-based companies dependent on its factory floors, such as shoemaker Nike, would dearly hope that he does. The markets displayed deep concern at Beijing’s strong and swift retaliation because the outcome of such cascading confrontation over trade actions is well known. Economist Charles Kindleberger produced a famous graph, known as the “Kindleberger Spiral”, which traced out how world trade spiralled down, month after month, in the years after the 1929 stock-market crash and subsequent protectionist measures. Almost two-thirds of world trade was wiped out till then US President Franklin D Roosevelt announced that the US would reduce tariffs on any trading partner that would do so as well. While it is unlikely that world trade will fall to the same degree this time around, the danger of a severe dip and associated uncertainties cannot be ignored. Much depends on how other large trading powers, particularly the European Union (EU), respond. If they choose not to limit their reaction merely to retaliatory tariffs on merchandise trade but also to services, in which trade the US enjoys a surplus of ^100 billion with the EU, then an additional spiral of escalation opens up. India is in a difficult position at this point. Some take heart from the fact that the country’s relative underperformance in exports means that it has been hit with a much lower rate than, say, Vietnam. But that will not assist existing exporters, who are already receiving demands for 15-20 per cent discounts on US orders that had already been settled. The exact proportions of how the additional costs will be managed — how much will be paid by consumers, by the US-based importer, and by the India-based exporter — will be decided by negotiations. The question is whether the financial system in India will be agile enough to provide the working capital required for any transition period. The government must also pay attention, at the macro level, to the US administration’s attitude on deal-making, and what it expects. Certainly, India must offer to drop unnecessary regulatory restrictions on imports, such as quality-control orders and other non-tariff barriers. The government would do well to push for an early conclusion of the bilateral-trade agreement. It must also move swiftly on its free- trade negotiations with the EU and Britain. There is work to be done to stave off catastrophe. Bloc development Bimstec needs to move faster T wenty-eight years after its inception, member-countries of the Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation, or Bimstec, appear to have attempted to instil a greater sense of purpose by adopting a Bangkok Vision 2030, outlining a road map for regional prosperity. The aim is to build a “prosperous, resilient and open” or “PRO” Bimstec by 2030 and create a zone of peace, stability, and economic sustainability in line with the United Nations’ Sustainable Development Goals and Thailand’s bio circular-green economic model, which focuses on creating a low-carbon ecosystem. This sixth summit, hosted by Thailand under its chairmanship, saw some energetic interventions by India as part of the “PRO” agenda. The initiatives unveiled by Prime Minister Narendra Modi in Bangkok ranged from Bimstec Centres of Excellence, focusing on disaster management, sustainable maritime transport, traditional medicine, and agri-research, to a “Bodhi Programme” for skill development, a pilot study for digital public infrastructure, a Bimstec chamber of commerce and greater people-to-people linkages. India’s drive for greater strategic cohesion within a group comprising Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Thailand aligns with New Delhi’s “Act East” policy, balance growing Chinese influence in the Bay of Bengal and to act as a counter balance to the South Asian Association for Regional Cooperation (Saarc), which tensions with Pakistan have rendered virtually moribund. The question is whether Bimstec can fulfil these multiple agendas. First, intra group political tensions have expanded. Indo-Bangladesh ties have weakened. Though the summit offered Mr Modi and Bangladesh Chief Advisor Mohammad Yunus an opportunity to exchange views on issues of mutual concern on the sidelines, it is far from clear that the agendas correspond to each other. Bangladesh has problematic relations with Myanmar since it hosts over 900,000 Rohingya refugees. Myanmar’s civil war, where the military has lost its grip on most of the country, means it can make little productive contribution to the grouping. Second, the grouping has been characterised by inertia. Bimstec meetings were supposed to take place every two years but there have been only six summits so far. A secretariat in Dhaka was established in 2014 but remains chronically under-resourced. A charter, outlining an institutional framework for the organisation, was adopted in the fifth summit in 2022. Bimstec appears to be galvanised whenever Saarc fails, while Thailand and Myanmar have been focused on the more dynamic (Association of Southeast Asian Nations). Part of the reason for inactivity under Bimstec is its wideranging agenda covering 14 areas — from trade and investment to health, climate change, tourism, counter terrorism, among others — that dissipates energies towards a meaningful alliance. A free-trade agreement, which was agreed on in 2004, has made no headway. Meanwhile, infrastructure and connectivity via coastal shipping, road transport, and an intra regional energy grid — all of which have the potential to transform the region — are largely incomplete, the major obstacles here being finalising legal agreements. Much of this can change if Bimstec injects greater dynamism into its functioning. No doubt the growing power of China in the region and the need to build greater intra group economic ties following the US tariffs are concentrating minds in seven regional capitals now. As the largest economy in the bloc, much will depend on how India manages the process of cooperation. Is it time for a radical rethink of India’s economic strategies and prepare accordingly? “S ir, please don’t say this openly … we will lose and, to cover the gap, the government borrows money half our revenue if our key clients hear that!” through treasury bonds and then the cumulative borThis was the anguished response from a rowing over decades has resulted in its national debt friend who had started a software company in the 1990s, exceeding $34 trillion as of early 2025, I can’t help but when I suggested that I could help design an algorithm feel shaken. The US is home to massive and world-dominating to perform marketing analysis in one-tenth the time it was taking at that time. His business was then to con- private tech companies, such as Google (Alphabet), Microsoft, Amazon, OpenAI duct marketing analysis, a service that (ChatGPT), Meta, and Apple, yet his company provided to blue-chip the country as a whole is struggling clients in India and the United States (US). neck-deep in debt. The simple His revenue was generated by charging answer often given is that these clients in accordance with the number giants are private corporations, not of hours spent by his team on this analygovernment-owned, and their profsis, as well as the number of people its are all distributed to shareholdemployed to perform it. ers, founders, and executives. The This incident from a time nearly three US government receives almost no decades ago comes rushing to my mind, share in these profits in the form in effect telling me that banking on cheap of taxes. So, while these companies Indian labour, which I had apprehensions AJIT BALAKRISHNAN are American and lead the world about even in the 1990s, may soon come in innovation, this does not transto haunt us and more so when I see the late into government revenue. current headlines flooding the world media: This is a puzzle that all deep thinkers in the US and “More than 130,000 IT employees have lost their jobs so far this year as the tech industry continues to around the world are trying to solve, primarily because if the present trend of deficits in the US continues and, lay off workers”. Or, more shocking to me, “Work for designers and God forbid, leads to a debt default by the US, the world will be thrown into chaos. Countries like China, Japan, photographers in their 30s drying up...” Then, when I dig a little deeper, I am led to believe the United Kingdom, India, and Saudi Arabia hold their that these problems in India seem to originate in prob- reserves in US dollars, and a US default would result in losses on those holdings and panic in currency markets. lems with the US economy: “The US could run short of money to pay its bills by It could also lead to supply-chain disruption, resulting in a crash in US demand and a reduction in global August this year…” When I see these reports about the US situation exports, particularly in Asia. It would also mean that stating that the US spends more than it collects in taxes tech orders, services outsourcing, and raw material BOOK REVIEW KATIE NOTOPOULOS A challenge of writing a book on the tech industry, especially something as rapidly evolving as artificial intelligence (AI), is that the story will be slightly out of date in the few months between the final draft being turned in and the hardback hitting the shelves. For example, Stephen Witt’s The Thinking Machine, a lively biography of the CEO Jensen Huang, whose company Nvidia makes microchips that power AI systems like ChatGPT, recounts events only up to a mid-2024 climactic showdown between the author and his subject over the possibility of AI destroying humanity, which means that a line that appears in an earlier chapter — about how Elon Musk The author (ajitb@rediffmail.com) is devoting his life to unravelling the connections between technology and society US tariffs: Running blind on a tightrope L ast week, American President Donald Trump set the global trading system ablaze by imposing massive tariffs on countries/geographical regions with large trade surpluses with the United States (US), such as China, Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, India, and the European Union. The repercussions are mind-boggling. A month ago, I suggested: “Unless something changes, Trump is a huge threat right now, which is perhaps not being fully recognised.” In fact, way back in mid-November, I wrote: “It would be suicidal to assume that his promised actions would be tempered … Even if a part of Trumponomics is implemented, it will hit the rest of the world like a tidal wave.” This has now happened. As economists, policymakers, and businesses scramble to chart a dangerous and unpredictable future, they are first trying to discover a method in Mr Trump’s madness. What is he trying to achieve? Here is the logic from Trump apologists. The supposed method 1. Force yields lower: The biggest problem for the US is its massive national debt of $36 trillion, of which $9.2 trillion must be refinanced in 2025. The only short-term fix for this is lower yields, which would mean lower interest payments. How can Mr Trump drive yields down or induce a massive buying of US bonds, especial- DEBASHIS BASU ly when inflation rates are not low? By playing the madman, which creates tremendous uncertainty. Abnormally large tariffs create panic and a risk-off scenario, where investors exit stocks and buy US treasuries, thus lowering yields. What would help additionally is the US Federal Reserve cutting interest rates. This is why Mr Trump was yelling at Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Fed, to cut interest rates during the Fed’s press conference on Friday. 2. Cut deficit: A lower yield will do nothing to reduce debt. Therefore, the second plank of Mr Trump’s strategy is to cut the deficit by apparently eliminating “waste and fraud” from the US Federal Budget. This is the work of Doge (Department of Government Efficiency), overseen by Elon Musk. Doge aims to slash $2 trillion from the US Federal Budget, which totals over $6.75 trillion. 3. Tariff revenues: The third plank of the strategy is to raise revenues. For Mr Trump, the most obvious revenue source is tariffs. According to the Trump camp, tariffs could generate $600-700 billion annually. 4. Geostrategy: The next part of the strategy is supposedly to force negotiations with Europe, Japan, Australia, South Korea, and Taiwan — countries that depend on the US for their security — in a way that benefits US trade and investment. This is why the Trump team went after these long-standing allies first. 5. Reshoring: The final plank of this strategy is to force exporters to make their products in the US. While there are no estimates on how much investment and how many jobs this will create, there are only a few pledges — from companies like Taiwan Semiconductor, Hyundai Motors, Nvidia, and Apple. What if the plan fails? Even assuming this is all well thought out, it is an extremely risky strategy, akin to running blind on a tightrope. For one, tariffs come into effect immediately and are so huge that significant costs will be passed on to US consumers and businesses. This could lead to an inflation spike and job losses. If inflation rates remain high, the Fed may raise rates, and the “loweryield” plan will fail. The Fed can cut rates during a recession, but that would also lead to massive job losses and lower tax revenues. The savings effected by Doge could fall far short of target while causing massive disruption in US society. Mr Trump cannot have trade deals, tariffs, jobs, and reshoring all at the same time. If trade deals are struck, there will be no need for reshoring. Reshoring will take years. As the Alcoa chairman has said, the company makes large investment decisions based on a 20- to 30-year outlook, not on months and years. Why would anyone commit to longterm investment in the US based on a presidential IRRATIONAL CHOICE Nvidia: From video games to the AI revolution differs from Huang in temperament — mentions that the Tesla CEO has “at least” 11 children. That count is now woefully behind. By most estimates, he’s up to 14. It also means Witt’s account doesn’t include the recent drama that arose after the release of a new AI chatbot from the Chinese company DeepSeek. A rival to ChatGPT, the Chinese chatbot was allegedly built for a fraction of the cost, with fewer fancy chips. This bucked the accepted wisdom that the only way to improve AI was to shovel vast sums of money at Nvidia to buy more and more of its hardware. When the markets absorbed this fact in January, Nvidia’s stock price tumbled. Before that fall, however, there was an astonishing rise. The story of how Nvidia became the hottest investment on Wall Street and a household name is fascinating because its trajectory differs significantly from that of its Big Tech peers. For most of the time that companies like Apple, Meta and Amazon have been around, regular people used their products and services every day. But, unless you imports all take a hit, affecting the export revenue of many countries. For India, this could potentially be a catastrophic decline in IT (information technology) outsourcing revenue from the US. Since I couldn’t find any intelligent explanation in the mass media about all this, I dived headfirst into any possible book that could unravel this puzzle for me, and I thought I’d share some of my findings with you, dear reader. Several books analyse the possibilities and effects of such an event. The Storm Before the Calm, by George Friedman, which predicts internal US economic and institutional upheaval in the 2020s, potentially affecting global stability, and The End of the Dollar Empire, by John Perkins, which explores what happens when the dollar loses its dominance, are two prominent examples. Some other books also list and analyse how India can potentially deal with such an event. The Future is Asian, by Parag Khanna (it suggests India should do more regional integration and move towards supply-chain leadership and economic diplomacy beyond Western dependencies), and India in the Age of Ideas, by Sanjeev Sanyal (it gives an insider’s view into how Indian policymaking is adapting in this era of global uncertainty) are two. Then, there is at least one book that deals specifically with what India, in particular, can or should do. This is Breaking the Mould: Reimagining India's Economic Future, by Raghuram Rajan and Rohit Lamba. It proposes a new growth path for India, based on encouraging decentralised, grassroots-driven innovation, which can be achieved by building an ecosystem suited for small and medium enterprises (SMEs). Support this effort by investing in education and skills rather than subsidising capital-heavy industries. In addressing the emerging fragile global world order, the book cautions against relying too heavily on exports, as China does. This is because they argue that in the emerging world, Western markets, such as the US, will become increasingly protectionist. You can see that, while this book was published last year, before Donald Trump was re-elected US President, Mr Trump’s key actions have all centred around protectionism: Increasing import duties for goods coming to the US and demanding reductions in import duties by other countries on goods from America. India, these authors say, should be a “creative country”, “build from the bottom up to become shock-proof, not just chase big-ticket industrial dreams that may be vulnerable to global shifts”, and focus on “India’s services edge, digital stack, and human capital, which are exactly the kind of assets that become valuable in a post-dollar or post-US-hegemony world”! Is it time for a radical rethink of India’s economic strategies and prepare for this new world coming? were a hard-core gamer, you probably hadn’t heard of Nvidia until recently. Huang doesn’t offer the author much on how his upbringing may have led to his current status as a technology apex predator (“I try not to analyse myself in that way,” he tells Witt), but there are early glimpses of his incredible drive and focus. In 1973, at 10 years old, he immigrated to the United States from Thailand and eventually landed in Oregon, where, between homework and shifts at Denny’s, he played competitive Ping-Pong at the national level. By the early nineties, popular video games like Myst and Doom were coming out and the industry around personal computing was ramping up. In 1993, instead of trying to compete against giants like Intel and Sun in the general computer chip space, Huang co-founded Nvidia, a company focused specifically on PC video games; their chips were robust enough to process the immersive visuals that the new games were creating. For much of Nvidia’s history, success was far from assured. Over 30 years, the company had ups and downs, nearly facing bankruptcy and fighting off activist investors. Huang’s tolerance for risk pulled his company through again and again. Huang was also notorious for his management style; his trademark technique is rage and yelling. In 2008, one of the company’s new graphics chips had a design flaw that caused mass customer returns and a plunge in stock price. In front of a large group in the company cafeteria, including more than a hundred executives, Huang reamed out the chip architect responsible for the error. These screaming sessions seem at odds with other, kinder aspects of Huang’s personality — his friends from his personal life said they didn’t ever witness any blowups. And somehow he’s retained diktat when the presidency itself lasts just four years? The biggest issue is the assumption that while Mr Trump upends the existing order at his own will, “all other things will remain equal”. They will not. China, which is ruled with an iron hand, has an enormous capacity to endure pain, which most democracies don’t. It has retaliated with a 34 per cent increase in tariffs on US imports, sanctions on select US companies, and a ban on some rare earth exports that the US electronics industry depends on. China, the world’s largest holder of US treasuries, can even force yields up by dumping US debt. The People’s Bank of China has announced the digital cross-border settlement system will be fully connected to the 10 members of Asean (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and six West Asian countries, which means that 38 per cent of the world’s trade volume will bypass the SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) system, dominated by the US dollar. Reports say that SWIFT clears cross-border payments in three-five days while the Chinese system has a clearing speed of just seven seconds, possibly leading to a massive shift away from the dollar. It will be messy Countries will attempt to work out deals with the US. The deals will be messy, long-drawn-out, and likely to be capriciously altered. As the world learns of these negotiations in real time from Mr Trump’s social media handles, strategies will have to be drawn and redrawn, buffeted by mercurial shifts in his imperious demands, backed by outright falsehoods. The most likely outcome is higher tariffs, but at lower rates than the current ones, along with lower economic growth across the board — perhaps leading to a recession, lower US tax revenues, new trade alliances with China at the centre, and continued uncertainty. Not since Covid has the world faced such a dire threat to growth and stability. Equity markets, which are derivatives of business and economy, will react with extreme volatility to each twist and turn. Buckle up. The writer is editor of www.moneylife.in and a trustee of the Moneylife Foundation; @Moneylifers many long-time loyal employees, even people from the early days when it wasn’t obvious that working at a gaming chip company — not the most glamorous part of the tech industry — was a golden ticket to enormous wealth. He’s also a loyal boss: The guy from the cafeteria wasn’t fired after the showdown. Over and over, Huang made decisions that worked out. He hired well, he saw THE THINKING MACHINE: Jensen opportunities Huang, Nvidia, around corners. and the World’s The smartest risk Most Coveted Huang took was Microchip listening to a Author: midlevel researcher Stephen Witt who, in 2013, pitched Publisher: Penguin Random him on a technology House called “neural nets,” Pages: 248 then a fringe area Price: ~899 being explored by a handful of academic researchers. Huang saw the potential, and set Nvidia on a path that would make his chips the premier tool for today’s AI revolution. The arc of Nvidia’s rise to dominance can’t really be built out of explosive interpersonal moments at the office or reflections on its founder’s stranger personality traits, as entertaining as those things are. Instead, the drama most naturally arises from a series of technical achievements where Huang and his gang pulled ahead of the competition by sheer feats of computer engineering. Thankfully, Witt does a decent job at drawing the reader into those moments. It’s hard not to compare Huang with Zuckerberg, Bezos and Musk and see him as a kinder, less evil version of his tech overlord peers. For all his verbal abuse, he hasn’t attempted to reshape global society or exploit low-wage workers. Still, the big questions about how AI will change humanity are left unanswered. When Witt tries to ask Huang about these things, the CEO brushes him off, saying, “I feel like you’re interviewing Elon right now, and I’m just not that guy,” before getting irate and yelling. In the end, The Thinking Machine leaves us unsure of its subject’s vision of the future. Huang is someone who dreamed of beating Intel in Q2 sales numbers, not of ushering in a new technological age. It just so happens that by achieving the first goal, he also ended up doing the latter. ©2025 The New York Times News Service 8 POLITICS & PUBLIC AFFAIRS NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 “THE NEXT STEP (BY THE BJP AFTER WAQF LAW) WOULD BE TO EYE THE LAND OF CHRISTIANS, JAINS, BUDDHISTS AND EVEN HINDU TEMPLES” “IF IT (AMENDMENTS) IS USED PROPERLY, THE ENTIRE WAQF BOARD CAN BE USED FOR THE WELFARE OF POOR MUSLIM BROTHERS AND SISTERS” “WE DO NOT SEEK TO CONTROL THE WAQF BOARD. WE ARE ONLY ASKING THOSE WHO ARE OPERATING (THE WAQF BOARD) THAT YOU DO IT ACCORDING TO RULES” UDDHAV THACKERAY, Shiv Sena (UBT) chief SHIVRAJ SINGH CHOUHAN, Union minister J P NADDA, BJP president > . ‘Recessionary phase not ruled out in Shrimp farming: US shockwaves major economies (after US tariffs)’ rock AP shores MONTEK SINGH AHLUWALIA, former deputy chairman of the Planning Commission and currently distinguished fellow at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP), tells Indivjal Dhasmana in New Delhi that tariff advantages for India vis-à-vis other economies in the US, will not yield any immediate gains in the American textiles market. He also shares thoughts on regional groupings, free-trade agreements (FTAs), and the efficacy of exchange rates. Edited excerpts: Will tariffs imposed by the US take the world back to the pre-globalisation era? President Donald Trump’s proposals will bring US tariffs back to where they were after the Smoot- Hawley Act of 1930, which triggered the trade wars of the 1930s, intensified the recession, and brought on World War II. Global financial markets have already been shocked, but the full effects will be known only after retaliation from other major players. China has already announced 34 per cent tariffs on imports from the US. The EU has also said it will retaliate. The rise in tariffs will raise prices in major economies and trigger an economic slowdown, possibly even prompting a recessionary phase. The tariff action will affect more than just trade — it will also affect investment because of the unilateralism of the action. Also, the departure from MFN (most favoured nation) rules adds huge uncertainty. The future of global value chains as a vehicle for achieving competitive efficiency is now in doubt. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) is specifically tasked with surveillance of the global economy and the MD of the IMF has described the US’ action as “a significant risk to the global outlook at a time of sluggish growth”. But their comprehensive assessment will be unveiled at the IMF/ World Bank meetings in late April. All G20 finance ministers will be there, and it will be interesting to see what happens. IF GLOBAL TRADE IS BEING FRAGMENTED INTO DISTINCT TRADE BLOCS, WE SHOULD WORK TO BE IN AS MANY OF THEM AS POSSIBLE. WE ARE CURRENTLY NEGOTIATING FTAs WITH THE UK AND THE EU. WE SHOULD MOVE AS QUICKLY AS POSSIBLE…” legitimate reason for departing from normal trade rules and the WTO (World Trade Organisation) allows for this. The previous US Administration had sought to address this concern by introducing protectionist walls in select high-tech areas — what they called a high fence around a small yard. Countries with similar concerns vis-à-vis China could follow this approach. The problem with the recent US action is that it goes well beyond national security. It is prompted by the belief that the US has been What can other countries unfairly treated by others, do in response to the but this argument does not US’ action? stand up to scrutiny. The Large individual countries EU, for example, is being will want to take retaliatory penalised for running a action, as China has done MONTEK SINGH large bilateral surplus on and the EU is considering. AHLUWALIA goods trade, ignoring the Retaliation will increase the fact that they have an damage, but it has the adva- Former deputy chairman, Planning almost equally large deficit ntage that the US will learn Commission in services trade. In any that unilateral behaviour case, imposing tariffs to involves costs, which will correct bilateral trade balances just hurt American export interests. does not make sense. I hope that the I hope major players also realise the enormous economic expertise importance of protecting multilateral available in the US will surface in some rules of trade among themselves, even if way and be heard. the US opts out. This means all countries other than the US should avoid arbitrary protectionist action What should India do? Should we among themselves and continue to follow the US and also turn observe multilateral rules, while hoping protectionist? Should we retaliate? that the US will re-join the global I don’t think retaliatory action by consensus sooner rather than later. India makes sense. The US is our largest trading partner, but we are not a significant trading partner for the But many other countries have concerns US. Retaliatory tariffs by us will not about China on national security hurt the US or deter it significantly. grounds, similar to those of the US… We must also keep in mind that National security is accepted as a when Prime Minister (Narendra) Modi met President Trump in Washington recently, they agreed to initiate a bilateral trade dialogue. President Trump also said he had told Modi that he felt India’s tariffs were too high, but he hoped we would reduce our tariffs. It makes sense to give these negotiations a chance. I have long argued that our tariffs are too high and we should lower them for our own good. There are many others who share this view. Even the NITI Aayog’s first three-year reform programme, published in 2016, said we should reduce our tariffs. Perhaps we can reap some “early harvest” from the ongoing trade dialogue and lower some other tariffs, as part of a deal whereby the US delays the tariff increase for India scheduled for April 9. If global trade is being fragmented into distinct trade blocs, we should work to be in as many of them as possible. We are currently negotiating FTAs with the UK and the EU. We should move as quickly as possible to conclude these discussions. For this, we may need to be more flexible on some of the “behind the border” areas than we have been. I think we should also consider entering the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for TransPacific Partnership (CPTPP), which is led by Japan and includes 11 countries. We opted out from joining the RCEP (Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership) at the last minute because our industry was reluctant to grant duty-free access to China. China is not a member of the CPTPP and is unlikely to be admitted. We should apply for admission immediately. It will take time but it will send a good signal. Given the uncertainty about the US’ trade policy, other members would value getting India in the group. Trump’s tariffs, falling shrimp prices, and fears of additional US levies, spark a crisis in the state’s politically vital aquaculture sector. SHINE JACOB elaborates Since US President Donald Trump’s dominates the Indian shrimp story: Vannamei, announcement of reciprocal tariffs on April which accounts for 87 per cent — or 625,475 2, Duggineni Gopinath, a veteran shrimp tonnes — of total shrimp exports, with a value farmer from Prakasam district in Andhra of $4.25 billion. The US market alone absorbs Pradesh, has been losing sleep. Shrimp prices 54 per cent of that, followed by China at 16 across all categories have since dropped by per cent and the European Union at 9 per cent, 10–15 per cent, triggering widespread panic MPEDA data shows. “Even though Andhra Pradesh’s share is only about 30 per cent of among farmers and exporters. Industry experts peg the potential annual the Vannamei shrimp export value, exporters loss to the Indian shrimp sector at nearly $1 here are using the situation to slash prices billion. Even more unsettling is the prospect across all markets,” Gopinath said. “We are of additional levies in the US — a countervail- the sufferers.” Between the 5.77 per cent countervailing ing duty (CVD) and anti-dumping duty that could raise the cost burden for Indian duty and the 1.38 per cent anti-dumping duty, exporters by about 7 per cent, in addition to “we’re becoming less competitive compared to countries like Ecuador,” said Sridhar Lanka, the new 26 per cent set by the US. While only shrimp under the 50 count former advisor to the Andhra Pradesh govthreshold are typically exported to the US, ernment. The effects are cascading. Hatcheries —where shrimp are bred and prices for other varieties — 100, raised through their early life 90, 80, 70, and 60 count — pristages — are seeing demand fall marily shipped to China, the sharply. “All exporters have European Union, Southeast stopped buying shrimp; prices Asia, Japan, and other Asian have tanked by about ~50 per markets, have also seen a steep kg across categories,” said P fall. Farmers and the state’s Opposition parties are crying Share of frozen shrimp in Prasad of Ravi Hatcheries. “We’re also seeing a slowdown foul, alleging “cartelisation”. All India’s total marine at the hatchery level. The centhis comes at a time when the export value tral government should take harvest season, which runs from immediate steps for relief to the April to July, is just beginning. industry.” Shrimp size is measured by The political tide is rising as count per kilogram — fewer well. The Opposition YSR shrimp per kilo means larger Congress Party has latched individual size. A 20 count, for Frozen shrimp exported onto the issue, seeing an openinstance, represents 20 shrimp in 2023-24; total value ing in the geopolitical trade war. per kilogram. “Prices dipped by was $4.88 bn “Companies formed syndicates an average of ~40-50 per kg and began exploiting farmers, across categories. Above-50 while the government stood count shrimp aren’t even by,” said Mudunuri Prasada exported to the US, yet prices Raju, senior YSR Congress have crashed across the board. leader and former Narsapuram That’s illogical,” said Gopinath, US market exports MLA. “If this continues, the who is also president of the aquaculture sector, which conPrakasam Shrimp Farmers tributes over 9 per cent to allied Association. “I’m facing one of Vannamei agricultural income, could fall the biggest crises since I began exports – 87% of total into a crisis.” farming in the 1990s.” The political significance of In Andhra Pradesh, the shrimp exports the shrimp industry earlier shrimp industry has political Source: MPEDA reflected in stock markets, too. significance, too. The industry was championed by Chief Minister Nara Shares of Andhra Pradesh-based firms — such Chandrababu Naidu in the late 1990s, who as Avanti Feeds and Apex Frozen —surged saw global potential in the state’s long coastline after the Assembly election results last June, and farming talent. Today, more than 140,000 reflecting investor confidence in Naidu’s farmers and nearly 2 million people in the return. One share of Avanti Feeds, the sector’s state are directly or indirectly tied to the aqua- heavyweight, traded at ~494.95 on June 4 last culture sector, which spans 212,000 hectares year; the price jumped over 45 per cent since and includes both fish and shrimp cultivation. then to ~720.25 (as of Friday). The stock had The panic is understandable. Shrimps hit a 52-week high of ~965 on March 24. Sources close to the industry say many account for 41 per cent of the volume and 66 per cent of the value of India’s total marine shrimp farmers backed Naidu’s Telugu Desam exports. According to the Marine Products Party — a National Democratic Alliance conExport Development Authority (MPEDA), stituent — in the polls, betting on a return of India exported 716,004 tonnes of frozen support for the sector. Gopinath echoed that shrimp worth $4.88 billion in 2023–24. Of this, hope: “We’re counting on the Centre to step 297,571 tonnes went to the US. One species in and help us. Many say India now has a distinct advantage over Bangladesh, China, and Vietnam for textile exports to the US. What is your take? It is true that the tariffs imposed on us by the US are lower than on these countries, and that gives us a relative advantage. However, we cannot expect any early gains on this count because the overall effect of US tariffs and possible retaliatory tariffs will have a negative effect on total import demand in the US. So, even if we are in a better position compared to others, we may not see much absolute gain. Meanwhile, we should address the many other constraints that affect our exports in these areas. That’s a very big agenda for policy reform, which should have high priority, especially if we are to enter into more FTAs. POPULAR CRUSTACEAN What should be India’s approach when negotiating a bilateral investment treaty (BIT) with the US? 66% This is important not just for the US but also the FTAs with the UK and EU where some assurances on BITs will be needed. Our record on dispute resolution is very bad and our insistence that investors should first exhaust all domestic legal avenues before invoking international arbitration will not stand scrutiny. Some imaginative rethinking of our position on this issue is urgently needed. 716,004 tonnes 297,571 Does the exchange rate play an important role in trade policy when tariffs are lowered? tonnes Domestic producers don’t like any reduction of tariffs, but any disadvantage from lowering protective duties can be offset by a corresponding depreciation in the exchange rate. More importantly, the exchange rate depreciation also directly helps exporters. If duty reduction is staggered over time, the depreciation required will be gentle. Unfortunately, the exchange rate policy is viewed as a sensitive issue across the world and no government likes to make its exchange rate policy explicit. Central bankers are especially skilled at making vague statements. Alan Greenspan once famously said while testifying before the US Congress: “If you think you have understood what I said, you haven’t listened carefully enough!” We should leave it to the central bank to weave its magic nontransparently, while keeping in mind the importance of keeping the exchange rate competitive. 625,475 tonnes: M A Baby elected Fast tracks, fuzzy math CPI (M) gen secy As Bihar polls near, upcoming Patna Metro fuels ARCHIS MOHAN New Delhi, 6 April The Communist Party of India (Marxist) elected 71year-old Mariam Alexander Baby as its new general secretary, in Tamil Nadu’s Madurai, on Sunday. His appointment and other key changes in the politburo mark the end of the Prakash Karat-Sitaram Yechury era, and a generational shift in the party’s leadership. The CPI (M) announced a reshuffled 18-member politburo — the party’s highest decision-making body — with eight new members inducted. The transition echoes changes last seen at the 14th Party Congress in Madras (now Chennai) in January 1992, when Harkishan Singh Surjeet succeeded E M S Namboodiripad as party chief, and both Karat and Yechury joined the politburo for the first time. They would go on to serve as Surjeet’s key lieutenants until his retirement in 2005, when Karat took over the leadership. At the 24th Party Congress in Madurai, which concluded on Sunday, senior leaders including Prakash Karat, Brinda Karat, former Tripura chief minister Manik Sarkar, and former Lok Sabha MP Subhashini Ali retired from the CPI (M)’s top decision-making body, having all crossed the age of 75. Yechury, who led the party from 2015 until his death in September 2024, was succeeded on an interim basis by Karat. Baby now takes the helm following these transitions. Among those newly inducted into the politburo include Kisan Sabha General Secretary Vijoo Krishnan, Mariam Dhawale, and Lok Sabha MP Amra Ram. Baby becomes the second CPI (M) general secretary from Kerala after Namboodiripad, underlining the enduring prominence of the state’s party unit. He is also the second leader from a minority community to hold the post since the party’s founding in 1964, following Surjeet. Like Surjeet, who was born into a Sikh family, Baby — born into a Christian family — is a selfdeclared atheist. excitement — but across India, expensive metro dream projects often outweigh ridership and financial reality, writes ADITI PHADNIS Patna is fizzing with excitement. It is getting a new international airport, which Prime Minister Narendra Modi will inaugurate on April 24, and an elevated roadway. And come August 15, the city will get a metro line — Bihar’s first; it is only the first phase, covering five stations and stretching just over 6 km. But even this has sparked anticipation, especially as further lines are expected to follow. In June last year, the state government approved the construction of metro lines in Muzaffarpur, Gaya, Darbhanga and Bhagalpur. With these additions, Bihar will join Agra (the most recent), Lucknow, Jaipur, and a host of smaller Indian cities that already have functioning metro systems. And the demand for metros is only rising — especially when elections loom, as in Bihar, which heads for assembly polls at the end of the year. The best part: This is infrastructure with no political downside — just a lot of financial question marks. A member of the Legislative Council, Devesh Kumar (Bharatiya Janata Party, or BJP), says the metro will help decongest Patna and eventually lead to the development of satellite townships, particularly with the construction of the new airport. Patna is bursting at the seams: It was the 21st fastest-growing city in the world and the fifth fastest-growing in India between 2006 to 2020 (City Mayors’ statistics). The metro area population in 2025 is estimated to be around 2.7 million, up 2.16 per cent from 2024. In 2019, the Patna Metro became a key government poll promise during the assembly elections. At that time, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United) was in alliance with the BJP. Since then, Kumar has changed partners twice — first aligning with the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) in August 2022, then returning to the BJP in January 2024. And while the political drama has been intense, the metro — both the one under construction and the others on the horizon — has never been a point of contention. In this, Bihar follows a familiar pattern seen across India. Everyone wants a metro — whether it’s Guwahati, Ranchi, Varanasi or Aurangabad. And politically, no one dares oppose it. Rashmi Sadana, a professor of sociology and anthropology at George Mason University who has done extensive research on urbanisation and authored Metronama, a book about how the Delhi Metro transformed the city, puts it plainly: “Yes, metros are more expensive to ride, but people will pay a little more to have their travel times cut by a third and to travel in a more dignified manner —with better lighting, climate control, even surfaces and clean stations. “The metro is not only a form of transport, it is an experience. It changes people’s understanding of their city and of themselves. People step into this hypermodern infrastructure and become part of it.” But there are caveats. “The success of Delhi’s Metro is partly due to its size Patna is preparing for its metro debut. Bihar’s first metro line, spanning just over 6 km and connecting five stations, opens on August 15 PHOTO: X/@PMRCLOFFICIAL COMMUTER REPORT Average daily ridership City 2023 Bengaluru 688,000 Ahmedabad 90,000 Lucknow 73,476 Jaipur 35,768 Noida 47,427 2024 762,361 100,000 87,000 57,211 53,600 Source: Annual reports of various metros — it’s an expansive system covering major swathes of the city. Even then, it’s not the most cost-efficient transport, but enough people use it for it to make sense,” says Sadana. “In smaller cities, having a metro is more of a vanity project — short lines with low ridership. Having short metros in every other city is a kind of financial disaster.” “Even with Delhi’s Metro, you can’t ignore other forms of transport, especially buses. You still need to connect to those. Investments should be made in the entire transport ecosystem — not just in expensive metro systems,” she argues. A parliamentary standing committee that presented its report in 2022 echoed this. It found that most metro projects — with the exception of Delhi and Mumbai Line 1 — had significantly lower average daily ridership than what was needed to break even. These included Bengaluru, Hyderabad, Chennai, Lucknow and Jaipur. The report cited the numbers: In 2020–21, Bengaluru Metro had an average daily ridership of 96,000 against the 1.86 million needed to break even. Hyderabad Metro had just 65,000 riders, compared with the 1.9 million required. “The committee noted that poor performance of metro projects indicates several things such as: (i) Lack of first and last mile connectivity, (ii) faulty detailed project reports, and (iii) absence of parking at stations. If the metro is to be made a medium of mass transportation, commuters need to be shifted away from using private vehicles. Therefore, the Committee recommended ensuring ridership estimation (which determines the selection of the type of metro) is realistic and accurate, and taking concrete steps to increase the ridership of all metro projects,” the report said. While average daily ridership on metros across India is rising, it still falls well short of initial projections. Metro trains are popular, just not as popular as originally imagined. Sharad Saxena, who leads research on transport infrastructure and policy at the Asian Development Bank (ADB), says relying solely on fare income won’t work. Ticket prices have to be kept low to attract large numbers of riders -- after all, the whole point is that this is “mass” transportation, accessible to everyone. “So, we’re in a bit of a Catch-22,” he says. “Keep fares low and make the system financially unviable. Or, raise fares, lose ridership, and once again face a financial crisis.” Transit companies, he adds, need to “avoid relying on state largesse in perpetuity”. “The best solution is to aggressively explore non-farebox revenues -- from sources other than ticket sales,” Saxena says. That includes advertising, branding rights and property development. Right now, smaller-city metros are struggling to do just that: Raise revenue from alternative sources. Even as ridership lags behind projections, Noida Metro has started offering a new service -- birthday parties. Users can host celebrations in static or moving coaches for a modest fee. You can decorate the coach yourself, or have metro staff do it for you. Magic shows and tattoo artists can also be part of the party. The highest package is ~10,000 an hour. Pre-wedding celebrations are also available. In Lucknow, the metro encourages people to host kitty parties, engagement parties and family reunions — though food and drink are still off-limits inside the coach. More on business-standard.com 9 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 < . Deep Memorial Public School, Block A, Ramprastha Ghaziabad Email: ubin0905348@unionbankofindia.bank [Rule - 8(1)] POSSESSION NOTICE (For immovable property) Whereas The undersigned being the authorised officer of Union Bank of India, Ramprastha GHAZIABAD BRANCH under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement Security Interest (Second) Act, 2002 (Act No. 54 of 2002)and in exercise of powers conferred under Section 13(12) read with rule 3 of the Security Interest (Enforcement) Rules, 2002 issued a demand notice dated 30-12-2024 calling upon the borrower & mortgager Mr. RAKESH ANTIL and Mrs. POOJA KUNDU to repay the amount mentioned in the notice being Rs. 11,95,631.48 (ELEVEN LAKH NINETY FIVE THOUSAND SIX HUNDRED THIRTY ONE RUPEES AND FORTY EIGHT PAISA only) within 60 days from the date of receipt of the said notice. The borrower having failed to repay the amount, notice is hereby given to the borrower and the public in general that the undersigned has taken possession of the property described herein below in exercise of powers conferred on him/her under Section 13(4) of the said Act read with rule 8 of the said rules on this 04th day of April 2025. The borrower in particular and the public in general is hereby cautioned not to deal with the property and any dealings with the property will be subject to the charge of the Union bank of India for an amount Rs. 11,95,631.48 and interest thereon. The borrower’s attention is invited to provisions of sub-section (8) of section 13 of the Act, in respect of time available to the borrower to redeem the secured assets. Description of Immovable Property All that part of the residential property in the name of Mr. RAKESH ANTIL S/O Mr. NAFE SINGH and Mrs. POOJA KUNDU W/O Mr. RAKESH ANTIL consisting Residential Flat (Without roof right) No. 1528, 14th Floor, Tower-D, 5th Avenue, GH-01, Sector-4, Gaur City, Greater Noida U.P. Pin 201301. Bounded:, On the North-East by Flat No 1529, On the South-West by Tower E On the North-West by Open area at ground floor, On the South-East by Common passage, Stairs & Flat no 1527 Sd/Authorised Officer Date: 04.04.2025 UNION BANK OF INDIA Place : Ghaziabad COLAB PLATFORMS LIMITED (Formerly known as Colab Cloud Platforms Limited) CIN: L65993DL1989PLC038194 Regd. Off.: Innov8 CP2 44, Backary Portion, Regal Building, Delhi, India, 110001 Phone: 8828865429 Email: cs@colabcloud.in Web: www.colabcloud.in NOTICE OF EXTRA ORDINARY GENERAL MEETING NIT Faridabad Branch Address at 5E/3BP Neelam Railway Road, Faridabad, Haryana Pin No:121001 Contact no: 91-8356804792 mail ID: ubin0904791@unionbankofindia.bank ANNEXURE - I [Rule - 8(1)] POSSESSION NOTICE (For immovable property) Whereas the undersigned being the authorised officer of Union Bank of India 5E/3BP Neelam Railway Road, NIT Faridabad, Haryana Pin No:121001 under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets and Enforcement Security Interest (Second) Act, 2002 (Act No. 54 of 2002)and in exercise of powers conferred under Section 13(12) read with rule 3 of the Security Interest (Enforcement) Rules, 2002 issued a demand notice dated 08-01-2025 calling upon the borrower M/s AVA Exports Company through its Proprietor Smt. Meena W/o Anil Kumar at DE25, Ward No. 5, Aligarh Road Near Ambedkar Park, New Basti, Sallagarh, Palwal, Haryana Pin No: 121102 and guarantors namely, (1) Mr. Sunil Kumar R/o 13-J, Gali No 7 Ashok Vihar Phase-III, Gurugram, Haryana 122001 and (2) Mr. Surender Kumar R/o House No B-119, Near Ambedkar Park, New Basti, Sallagarh, Palwal, Haryana-121102, to repay the amount mentioned in the notice being Rs. 23,30,496/- (Rupees Twenty-Three Lacs Thirty Thousand Four Hundred Ninety-Six Only) as on 04.01.2025 and interest thereon within 60 days from the date of receipt of the said notice. The borrower having failed to repay the amount, notice is hereby given to the borrower and the public in general that the undersigned has taken possession of the property described herein below in exercise of powers conferred on him/her under Section 13(4) of the said Act read with rule 8 of the said rules on this 04th day of April of the year 2025. The borrower in particular and the public in general is hereby cautioned not to deal with the property and any dealings with the property will be subject to the charge of the UNION BANK OF INDIA for an amount Rs. 23,30,496/- (Rupees Twenty-Three Lacs Thirty Thousand Four Hundred Ninety-Six Only) as on 04-01-2025 and interest thereon. The borrower’s attention is invited to provisions of sub-section (8) of section 13of the Act, in respect of time available to the borrower to redeem the secured assets. Description of Immovable Property All that part of the property consisting of House No. B-119 Measuring 190 Sq Yd. forming Part of Khasra No. 142/22(8-0) situated near Ambedkar Park, at New Basti, Sallagarh, within the limit of Municipal Council Palwal, Tehsil Palwal, Distt. Palwal (Haryana) owned and possesses by Sh. Sunil Kumar S/o Sh. Uday Singh R/o 13-J Gali No 7 Ashok Vihar Phase-III Gurugram Haryana-122001 and Sh. Surender Kumar S/o Sh. Uday Singh R/o House No. B-119, Near Ambedkar Park, New Basti, Sallagarh, Palwal Haryana -121102. North: 16’ Wide Road, South: House of Punni Ji East: House of Shahtri Ji, West: House of Vikram Singh Sd/Authorised Officer Date: 04.04.2025 UNION BANK OF INDIA Place : Faridabad NOTICE is hereby given that the 01st Extra Ordinary General Meeting (EOGM) of the members of COLAB PLATFORMS LIMITED (“the Company”) will be held on Monday 28th April 2025 at 12:00 noon through Video Conference (VC)/ Other Audio Video Means (OAVM), to transact the businesses as set out in the Notice of EOGM: All the members are hereby informed that: 1. The Company has completed dispatch of the Notice of EOGM to the Members through permitted mode on Saturday, 05th April, 2025. 2. The businesses as set forth in the notice of EOGM may be transacted through remote e-voting system or at the EOGM. 3. The facility of casting the votes by the members (“e-voting”) will be provided by Central Depository Services (India) Limited (CDSL) and the detailed procedure for the same is provided in the Notice of the EOGM. 4. The cut-off date for determining the eligibility to vote through remote e-voting or at the EOGM shall be Monday, 21st April 2025. 5. Persons whose name is recorded in the register of beneficial owners maintained as on the cut-off date, only shall be entitled to avail the facility of E-voting. 6. The remote e-voting period commences on Friday, 25th April 2025 (09:00 A.M.) and end on Sunday, 27th April 2025 (05:00 P.M). Member may also cast their votes at the time of EOGM. 7. Any person who acquires the shares and becomes the member of the company after the dispatch of the notice and hold shares as on the cut-off date of Monday, 21st April 2025, may obtain login ID and password by sending request on helpdesk.evoting@cdslindia.com, to cast their vote electronically. However, if a person is already registered with CDSL for e-voting then existing User Id and password can be used to cast their vote. 8. The members who have cast their vote by e-voting prior to meeting may also attend the meeting but shall not be entitled to cast their vote again. The results declared along with scrutinizer report within the prescribed period shall be displayed on the Company’s Website and also communicated to the stock exchange. Members are requested to note that in case you have any queries or issues regarding e-voting, you may refer to the Frequently Asked Questions (‘FAQs’) and e-voting manual available at www.evotingindia.com under help section or write an email to helpdesk.evoting@cdslindia.com or call 1800 22 55 33 or send a request at helpdesk.evoting@cdslindia.com. By Order of the Board For Colab Platforms Limited (Formerly known as Colab Cloud Platforms Limited) Place: New Delhi Sd/Mukesh Jadhav Date: 5th April 2025 Director DIN: 09539015 SUSTAINABLE GRINDING TECHNOLOGIES FOR CEMENT, STEEL, ENERGY AND MINERALS INDUSTRIES With its new state-of-the-art Test Center in Bangalore, India, Qlar (formerly Schenck Process) is driving forward innovative and sustainable grinding solutions for the cement, steel, energy, and minerals industries. Spanning 3500 squarefeet, the facility combines research, development, and large-scale testing, strengthening Qlar’s position as a leading provider of intelligent grinding technologies QLAR OPENS NEW PULVERIZER TEST CENTER IN BANGALORE, INDIA T he opening of the new Test Center expands Qlar's technological capabilities and provides customers with the opportunity to test their own materials under real-life conditions – supported on site by a knowledgeable and experienced team.Materials such as limestone, coal, petcoke, clinker, slag, bauxite, and talc can be tested in full-scale setups to evaluate performance and optimise process design.The €700,000 investment reflects Qlar’s commitment to technological leadership and sustainable grinding solutions.This includes the further development of Advanced Vertical Roller Mills (AVRM) and Rotary Roller Mills (RRM), as well as the creation of patented grinding technologies designed for maximum efficiency and performance. New mill variants are tested specifically for various feeding compositions and grindability factors to ensure optimal adaptation to industrial requirements. ABOUT QLAR GROUP The opening of the new Pulverizer Test Center expands Qlar's technological capabilities and provides customers with the opportunity to test their own feeding materials under real-life conditions Advanced technologies for a sustainable circular economy Qlar is driving forward the digitalisation of processes and the use of artificial intelligence in grinding technology. By implementing the CONiQMonitor, the company offers real-time monitoring at the Test Center, enables predictive maintenance and supports data-driven process optimisation. ‘Our customers benefit from precise performance analyses and increased operational reliability of their systems, allowing them to evaluate the efficiency of new grinding RAJESH PATHAK, Managing Director at Qlar India technologies before making investment decisions’, comments Rajesh Pathak, Managing Director at Qlar India. In addition, the Test Center serves as a platform for collaboration with industry and science. It enables partnerships with leading institutions and research facilities to conduct material studies and set new technological benchmarks. ‘Our Test Center not only offers individually tailored solutions, but also focuses on sustainable innovations,’ explains Ramachandra Rao, Head of R&D and Engineering – Mills at QlarIndia. ‘We see great potential for significantly reducing the industry's carbon footprint in the development of energy-efficient milling technologies, the use of industrial by-products such as slag and fly ash, and the promotion of a circular economy.’ Qlar's vision is to establish the Test RAMACHANDRA RAO, Head of R&D & Engineering – Mills at Qlar India Center in Bangalore as the most advanced, data-driven and sustainable grinding mill test facility in the world. This strategic direction underlines the company's commitment to actively shaping the future of grinding technology and setting global standards. For more information: — https://www.qlar.com/services/testing Qlar (formerly Schenck Process) is a global provider of sustainable products, integrated solutions, and services in mission-critical applications for bulk materials. Headquartered in Darmstadt, Germany, the group has more than 1,100 employees with a presence in over 13 countries focusing on markets alongside chemicals and performance materials, infrastructure and energy as well as alternative fuels. The production sites are located around the globe in India, China, Germany, UK and Czech Republic. The product range includes solutions for industrial weighing, feeding, conveying, milling and grinding, and related digital applications of the CONiQ product family. With its testing infrastructure of 4 global test centres and 6 centres of competence, Qlar knows more than 40,000 different bulk materials across its relevant verticals. Under the motto “driving circular transformation” the long-established international company is taking on a leading role in climate-neutral material processing and will focus even more strongly on digitalised and sustainable solutions in future, helping their clients to achieve a carbon-neutral sector by 2050. For more information, please visit: www.qlar.com 10 NEW DELHI ywvutsrponmlkjihgfedcbaYWVUTSRQPONMLKIHGFEDCBA | Busine ss Standard M ON DAY, 7 APRIL 2 0 2 5 utsrnihedaSIDBA DSPL-09 YWRPONMLIHEDA ©DIShIA N E W WUTSRPONIE FICCI O P P O R T U N I T I E S Shri Narendra Modi Shri Mohan Charan Majhi Prime Minister Chief Minister, O d i s h a Memorandum of Understanding(MoU) Signing Ceremony rpliMA 0 8 April 2 0 2 5 | 1 0 : 3 0 AM Taj Palace 2 Sardar Patel Marg Diplomatic Enclave, New Delhi, 110 021 OPPORTUNITIES ODISHA TOP ACHIEVER STATE IN BRAP 2022 FOR EODB STRATEGIC PORTS & PORT-BASED INFRASTRUCTURE "D 73 BEST IN CLASS POLICY INCENTIVES - IPR 2022 PLENTIFUL RAW MATERIAL AVAILABILITY O o / RELIABLE & CHEAPER POWER O REGULATORY CERTAINTY & PEACEFUL INDUSTRIAL ENVIRONMENT © READY TO MOVE SECTORAL CLUSTERS, MSME PARKS / SKILLED MANPOWER, WORLD-CLASS SKILLING INFRASTRUCTURE cn "Odisha is poised to become the Chemicals and Petrochemicals Hub of India." INVEST IN ODISHA, INVEST IN FUTURE Follow us on @@lnvestlnOclisha O / l n v e s t O d i s h a O © FOR INQUIRY PLEASE CONTACT Mr. Akshay Belwalkar akshay.belwalkar@ficci.com Mr. Rajib Dhal, Chief General Manager, IPICOL rajibdhal@investodisha.org O Mob-76661 9 8 0 0 7 © M o b - 9 9 5 5 3 27527 Scan To Register * O n spot registration would be allowed subject to availability 0 1 2 N3 11 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 < . PUBLIC NOTICE Notice is bereby given that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has vide its letter dated 25th March 2025, granted approval to the proposed change in management and shifting of Registered Office of the Goldline Finance Private Limited (”the Company”) i.e appointment of Mr. Karri Rakesh Kumar and Mr. Vasu Bansal as Executive Directors on the Board of the Company and to shift the registered office of the company from Unit-885, 8th Floor, Office Block-B High Street, Vegas Mall, Dwarka Sector 14, South West Delhi, India, 110075 to 8th Floor Orbit Tower 1 Sy No 83/1, Hyderabad, Madhapur, Hyderabad, Shaikpet, Telangana, India 500081 subject to meeting the requirements of Companies Act or any other Acts, which may apply in this case for the Company. This public notice is given in compliance of RBI’s direction pertaining to change in control/management of NBFC in terms of their Circular no. DNBS (PD) CC.No. 11/02.01/99-2000 dated November 15, 1999, and para 5 of Notification no. DNBS (PD) 029/CGM (CDS-2015) dated July 09, 2015. Any person having any objection or whose interest, if any, is likely to be adversely affected by such change may send his objection within 30 days of the date of publication of this notice to the manager DNBS, RBI 6 Sansad Marg, New Delhi-110 001 with a copy to the Company at above mentioned address. For Goldline Finance Pvt. Ltd. Sd/Mr. Sandeep Kurapati Director DIN: 09368064 Place : New Delhi Date : 5th April 2025 CIRCLE SASTRA CENTRE, CIRCLE OFFICE BULANDSHAHR. E-Mail: - CS8212@pnb.co.in PH NO: 8171640088 POSSESSION NOTICE [Rule 8(1) Read with Section 13(4)] Whereas the undersigned being the Authorised Officer of the Punjab National Bank under the Securitisation and Reconstruction of Financial Assets & Enforcement of Security Interest Act, 2002, and in exercise of powers conferred under Section 13 read with Rule 3 of the Security Interest (Enforcement) Rules, 2002, issued demand notice/s as mention below table calling upon the respective borrower/s to repay the amount as mentioned in the table within 60 days from the date of notice(s)/ date of receipt of the said notice(s). The borrower having failed to repay the amount, notice is hereby given to the borrower and the public in general that the undersigned has taken possession of the properties described herein below in exercise of powers conferred on him under sub-section (4) of Section 13 of Act read with Rule 8 of the Security Interest Enforcement) Rules, 2002. The borrower’s /guarantor’s /mortgagor’s attention is invited to provisions of subsection (8) of section 13 of the Act in respect of time available to redeem the secured assets. The borrower/s in particular and the public in general is hereby cautioned not to deal with the properties and any dealing with the properties will be subject to the charge of Punjab National Bank for an amount and other expenses until payment in full. DESCRIPTION OF IMMOVABLE PROPERTIES: Date of Demand Notice S. Name of the Branch Description of the property mortgaged No. 1. Date of Possession Notice Amount Outstanding as on the date of demand Notice. Name of the Account / Borrower / Guarantor One residential house area measuring 83.66 Sqmtr or 100.00 Sqyards 01.08.2024 OBC MOTIBAGH 014010 situated at Maukhera, Pargana baran, Tehsil & District Bulandshahr in 03.04.2025 Kamlesh Devi W/o Sukhpal the name of Smt Kamlesh Devi W/o Sukhpal Singh. Boundries as Rs. 10,12,766.35 (Rs. Ten Lakh Twelve Singh A/c 0140109300000086 below: East: Rasta 8 feet Wide West: House Gajendra North: House Lekhraj South: House Sushila *Property details as per title deed. 2. SAKHNI 187310 Devesh Kumar S/o Vijay A/c 187310ND00000024 Thousand Seven Hundred Sixty Six and Thirty Five Paisa Only) + Int. wef. 31.07.2024 + Other cost and expenses One Vacant shop having an area 89.93 Sqmtr situated at Mohalla 24.09.2024 Bazar Pukhta, Jahangirabad, Tehsil Anoopshahar, Bulandshahr in the 03.04.2025 name of Devesh Kumar S/o Vijay. Boundries as below: Rs. 16,87,512.64 (Rs. Sixteen lakh Eighty East: Road 18.00 ft West: Shop Than Singh 20.12 seven Thousand Five hundred Twelve North: Rasta gali 11 feet wide South: House Mohan Lal and Sixty Four paisa Only) + Int. wef. ***Property details as per title deed* 01.09.2024 + Other cost and expenses 3. UBI BULANDSHAHAR 145020 Plot no 2S-24, measuring Area 22.35 Sqmtr situated at Kalindi Kunj 10.01.2025 Residential Scheme Khurja, Tehsil Khurja Distt -Bulandshahar in the 04.04.2025 Mrs Pooja W/o Komal Singh name of Pooja D/o Om Prakash W/o Komal Singh Rs. 10,01,927.09 (Rupees Ten Lakh One D/o Om Prakash Bounded as under: East: Plot no 2S -25, West: Plot no 2S -23 Thousand Nine Hundred twenty Seven A/c 1450209300000242 North: 2.5 mtr Open space 24.00 mtr Road and Nine Paisa only) with further interest South: Plot no K- 44 and incidental charges Property Details as per Title Deed* 4. OBC SIKANDRABAD 084110 One residential House, Jharkhandi Nai Abadi, Gata no 2121, Area 19.11.2024 measuring 62.11 Sqmtr in the name of Mohd Irfan and Mrs Akila 03.04.2025 Mohammad Irfan S/o (Covered under Doc No Bahi no 1, Zild no 10266, Page 167/186 Rs. 17,79,960.75 (Rs Seventeen Lakh Sirajuddin & Akila W/o Mohd Document no 6120 dtd 20.06.2022. Bounded as under Seventy Nine Thousand Nine Hundred Irfan A/c 0841108700000281 & East: Home Tahira Bano West: Plot Yasmeen Sixty and Seventy Five Paisa Only) with North: Gali 7 Feet South: Home Mohammad Ahmad 084110ND00000033 further interest and incidental charges *Property Details as per title deed* EM of one commercial shop measuring area 23.10 sqmt situated at 5. 29.11.2024 KHURJA MAIN 026700 Moh Laxmanganj, Gandhi Road, Kasba Khurja Distt : Bulandshahar 04.04.2025 M/s Bharat Furniture and Toys which is registered at Bahi No 1 Jild No 3099 pages 375 to 428 at Serial Rs. 12,57,323.04/- (Rs Twelve lacs fifty Prop. Smt Shama Parveen No 5949 dated 17-07-2006 at SRO Khurja Distt: Bulandshahar. seven thousand three hundred twenty A/c 0267008700008985 Boundries as below: East By: Shop of Murtaja Market three and four Paisa Only) with further West By: Footpath Badhoo Gandhi Road, North By: Shop Faeeda D/o interest & cost w.e.f 31.12.2024 less Shree shree Munna Khan bakirayedri Anwar Ali etc recovery if any w.e.f 10.01.2025 South By: Shop Shree Rajendra Kumar *Property details as per title deed. Date: 05.04.2025, Place: Bulandshahar Authorized Officer, For Punjab National Bank, Circle SASTRA Head (Chief Manager) 12 PERSONAL FINANCE NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > WORLD HEALTH DAY Run these critical checks on your health cover Increase cover if inadequate; exit policies with sub-limits, copayment SANJAY KUMAR SINGH & KARTHIK JEROME A pril 7, observed as World Health Day, is a good occasion for policyholders to re-evaluate their health insurance policies. If the existing policy has glaring inadequacies, port to a more comprehensive plan. Inadequate cover Many individuals who bought health insurance a decade or so ago, continue with a sum insured of ~2–3 lakh. With medical inflation averaging 14–15 per cent annually, this amount is now grossly inadequate. “The average cost of hospitalisation for 2.5–3 days can come to ~1.5–1.75 lakh. The cost in metros tends to be even higher,” says Ashish Yadav, head of products and operations, ManipalCigna Health Insurance. Treatment of critical illnesses can be prohibitively expensive. “The cost incurred on treatment of cancer, kidney or lung transplant could be ~20-30 lakh or more,” says Siddharth Singhal, head of health insurance, Policybazaar. A single member of a family floater could exhaust a small cover, leaving other members vulnerable. Singhal suggests combining a ~10 lakh base policy with a ~90 lakh super top-up for an individual or even a family of three. However, managing claims across two policies can be more complex, so buy both base and super top-up from the same insurer. Yadav adds that the policy should also take care of inflation by offering noclaim bonus. Room rent and treatment sub-limits Policies often have sub-limits on room rent and specific treatments. A one per cent cap on room rent in a ~5 lakh policy means one can stay in a room that costs up to ~5,000 per night. Choosing a higher-cost room triggers proportionate deduction. “The other expenses—doctor consultations, treatment costs, etc.—are linked to room rent,” says Singhal. So, if a person with a ~5,000 room rent cap stays in a ~10,000 per night room, he may receive only half the total bill from the insurer. Certain policies impose sub-limits linked to specified ailments, such as cataract, hernia, knee replacement, etc. Copayment and deductible A copayment clause requires the insured to pay a fixed percentage of the bill. For example, if the copayment is 20 per cent, a ~1 lakh bill means the policyholder pays ~20,000. A deductible is a fixed amount borne by the insured; the insurer pays only above that threshold. “Customers should go for a deductible where their liability is limited. In copayment it keeps increasing with the bill amount,” says Singhal. If you can pay the premium, then avoid ESSENTIAL POINTS TO KNOW ABOUT PORTING n Many mistakenly believe porting results in loss of continuity benefits n Consider porting if premiums rise sharply or the benefits offered by the policy are inadequate n Don’t choose new policy based on lower premium alone; check benefits, exclusions, claim-settlement ratio, and willingness of insurer to offer a high sum insured n Avoid plans with sub-limits on treatment methods n Start porting 45–60 days before policy expiry n Disclose all health conditions, especially recent ones n After porting, go through new policy document to ensure that the continuity benefits are intact both copayment or deductible. To make premiums manageable, seniors may go for a deductible they can afford. Claim settlement track record Ideally, select insurers with claim settlement ratio above 90 per cent. “Even though this data from the regulator is not available by line of business or product, and is not segregated for retail and group insurance, nonetheless it is a very important parameter one must review,” says Kapil Mehta, co-founder, SecureNow. He also recommends checking grievance-related data from the regulator and insights from industry bodies like the Insurance Broking Association on the performance and credibility of various insurers. Waiting periods for ailments The regulator now caps the waiting period for pre-existing diseases (PEDs) at three years. For a higher premium, you can now get policies that offer day-one coverage for PEDs. The waiting period for specified ailments like cataract and hernia has been capped at two years. Again, many products are now available where this type of waiting period also does not apply. Short-duration procedures Today, many surgeries, such as laparoscopic procedures, cataract removal, tonsillectomy, etc. do not require 24-hour hospitalisation. “Such surgeries are typically categorised as daycare procedures and are covered in most policies,” says Shilpa Arora, co-founder and chief operating officer, Insurance Samadhan. Mehta adds that all insurers must cover a list of such procedures issued by the regulator. Review your policy carefully for what is excluded. “It is possible that some insurers place a cap on modern-day treatments,” says Mehta. Restore benefit Restore benefit automatically reinstates the sum insured if it is exhausted during the policy year. “This benefit is crucial to ensure access to quality treatment, especially for individuals with chornic or multiple health concerns,” says Arora. Check the finer nuances of this benefit. “Sometimes, insurers may replenish the sum insured, but may not allow it to be used for the same disease for which it was used earlier in that year,” says Mehta. To avail cashless facility, Arora recommends periodically checking the insurer’s website or app to track network hospitals, as they can change. What should you do? Study your policy to identify missing features and exclusions. Consider adding a rider or shifting to a better plan within the same company. “Whether one is able to do so depends on the insurer’s underwriting philosophy,” says Yadav. If shifting within the company is not possible, port to a better policy from another insurer. Allow advance power of attorney for mentally incapacitated TRUTH BE TOLD HARSH ROONGTA As I approach the evening of my life, one troubling image often keeps me awake. In August 2016, my father suffered a massive stroke. It left him bedridden and entirely dependent on others. For someone fiercely independent, self-made, disciplined — and who had risen to become the chief financial officer (CFO) of a large, listed company — losing autonomy had always been his greatest fear. He had witnessed a similar fate befall his father, my grandfather, who spent his final years mentally and physically incapacitated after a stroke. Determined not to leave anything to chance, my father prepared meticulously: He prepared a registered will, nominated family members for his accounts, and maintained detailed records of his assets. Ironically, he overlooked the one scenario he feared most — mental incapacitation. When the stroke struck, we found all his accounts mental capacity. In India, a were solely in his name, regular PoA becomes leaving us unable to access invalid if the grantor funds even for his care. becomes mentally Fortunately, he retained incapacitated — because enough awareness to legally, an agent cannot eventually authorise my perform actions the sister and me to manage his principal cannot. affairs. But what if he had There is an urgent slipped into a coma or lost need for legislation that all mental capacity? allows individuals to plan In researching for such scenarios. Such a solutions, I encountered law should: numerous families One, allow individuals grappling with similar to appoint a PoA holder in challenges. Without clear advance; two, define the legal guidelines, families of authority of the PoA holder, incapacitated persons activated upon confirmed (ICPs) must endure mental incapacitation; prolonged and costly court three, create an processes just to independent Clearly define the medical panel to access their authority of the loved ones’ verify mental PoA holder, which incapacitation finances. Courts usually appoint a should get and activate the activated upon close relative as PoA; four, guardian, but the confirmation of provide a clear, mental process is tiring, court-supervised incapacitation by process for complicated, an independent and involves appointing strict monitoring medical panel guardians if no to avoid misuse. PoA holder was Surprisingly, India still chosen earlier; and five, lacks clear laws for ensure accountability and appointing a guardian for supervision to protect the mentally incapacitated incapacitated person’s adults. Regulators like the interests and dignity. Securities and Exchange The United Kingdom’s Board of India (Sebi) and (UK) Mental Capacity Act of the Reserve Bank of India 2005 serves as an excellent (RBI) have rules to help model. Organisations like physically incapacitated the Moneylife Foundation individuals, but these advocate for similar laws in solutions do not extend to India. Their extensive mental incapacitation. research (bit.ly/ 4jij6NV) Internationally, the issue is compares practices in managed through five countries — United “durable” or “lasting” States, Canada, Australia, power of attorney (PoA), the UK, and Germany — which remains valid even if and shows how far India the person granting it loses still needs to go. Truth be told, with India’s senior citizen population growing, such legal safeguards have become critical. These citizens don’t seek government funds; they simply want reassurance that their twilight years won’t become a nightmare of helplessness despite having enough financial resources. Given my family’s history, I have taken several precautions. My spouse and I jointly own all movable assets on an “either-or survivor” basis, ensuring that either of us can manage the assets independently if needed. We are also selling immovable properties where joint ownership does not resolve the mental incapacitation issue. But personal precautions alone are not enough. My father’s ordeal taught me that preparation brings peace of mind only when backed by supportive laws — without them, awareness alone is inadequate. I sincerely hope the organisations striving for these crucial legal reforms succeed. I hope to see these regulations implemented in my lifetime — and God willing, never have to use them. The writer heads Fee-Only Investment Advisors LLP,a Sebi-registered investment advisor; X: @harshroongta 1 QUICK TAKE: PRESTIGE ESTATES RAISES NEW PILLARS OF PROFIT The Smart NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 Investor (Stock price in ~) 1,900 Prestige Estates Projects has shed 32% over the past 1,600 three months, but Motilal Oswal Research is holding 1,127.05 1,300 firm on its ‘buy’ call. The developer has carved out a foothold in the Mumbai Metropolitan Region and is 1,000 now turning to the National Capital Region and Pune Jan 3,'25 Apr 4,'25 to tap new revenue streams, the brokerage said Markets were closed on Jan 4 1,660.10 LOOKING UNDER THE HOOD WEAK NUMBERS KEEP ER&D MAJORS IN NEUTRAL FOR Q4 RAM PRASAD SAHU Mumbai, 6 April Pure-play ER&D firm L&T Technology Services Cyient KPIT Technologies Tata Elxsi Tata Technologies P ure-play engineering research and development (ER&D) firms lagged behind their information technology (IT) services peers in calendar year (CY) 2024, hit by US election-related uncertainty, weak demand across sectors, and delays in client decisionmaking. That underperformance may extend, with a soft January-March quarter likely and modest projections for CY 2025. ER&D stocks have already dropped over 20 per cent on average since early February. Girish Pai of BOB Capital Markets says deceleration and no-growth risks are rising, and the Street hasn’t fully priced in the earnings downside. Tariff hikes — including retaliatory ones — and fiscal tightening in the US could force further earnings revisions even into 2026-27 (FY27), where the Street is still pencilling in a rebound. For now, attention is on the JanuaryMarch quarter numbers. Kotak Institutional Equities (KIE) expects steep revenue declines in the transportation vertical across Tata Elxsi (TELX), Tata Technologies (TTL), and L&T Technology Services (LTTS). Cyient, TTL, and TELX are expected to post revenue drops both sequentially and Source: Kotak Institutional Equities year-on-year. LTTS is likely to report a seasonal uptick in organic revenue, while KPIT Technologies may see growth ease. Weak demand and broader sector worries are set to pressure margins and could weigh on what is typically a stronger AprilJune quarter. KIE has a ‘sell’ or ‘reduce’ call on all the ER&D firms it covers. Given the cautious sentiment and earnings downgrades, the premium that ER&D leaders command over midcap IT names has narrowed — from a threeyear average of 60 per cent to 15 per cent, according to Antique Stock Broking — and may compress further. Within the ER&D space, brokerages flag higher risk for the retail and manufacturing verticals, including automotive, electronics, and chemicals, ‘A bottomless pit’: Current climate mirrors chaos of 2020 black-swan event, say analysts From 106 companies at halfway mark, number slipped to 86 PUNEET WADHWA FRIDAY’S MARKET TREADMILL: The current market environment LOCKED IN A LOSING LOOP New Delhi, 6 April THIN AIR AT THE TOP Just 5 reach the trillionplus crest in FY25’s toughest climb yet Number of companies Source: Capitaline THE FY25 CAROUSEL THE SPIN CYCLE NEVER STOPPED: Who got on, who slipped off Addition Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders Solar Industries India Max Healthcare United Spirits Indian Hotels Company Torrent Pharmaceuticals Shriram Finance Divi’s Laboratories Bajaj Holdings & Investment Shree Cement Cholamandalam Investment and Finance Company Subtraction IndusInd Bank Adani Total Gas Indian Overseas Bank Canara Bank Zydus Lifesciences Dr Reddy’s Laboratories Union Bank of India Tata Consumer Products - SAMEER MULGAONKAR mirrors the turmoil of 2020 during the black-swan event, with markets sinking into panic driven by uncertainty, according to analysts. They suggest that the announcement of tariffs by US President Donald Trump has trapped markets in a bottomless pit for now, forecasting further declines in the near future, though occasional pullbacks are expected. Investors, they recommend, should use market dips as opportunities to buy for the long term but should spread their investments over time. Structurally, inflation is set to rise, while growth is expected to slow, said Jyotivardhan Jaipuria, founder and managing director of Valentis Advisors. He believes tariffs have placed the global economy in uncharted territory, stoked by fear of the unknown. “Bond markets expect the US Federal Reserve to cut rates as fears of a dwindling economy tied to tariffs grow. Friday’s drop in the US markets was largely driven by China’s retaliatory measures. As things stand, the market’s bottom remains unclear, much like during the pandemic in 2020. Volatility will persist. Investors should avoid lump-sum investments and instead stagger them,” Jaipuria advised. US stocks fell for the second consecutive day on Friday after China retaliated to President Index Nasdaq Composite Dow Jones Industrial Average NSE Nifty 50 Even as markets prepare for the new financial year, SANDEEP NAYAK, executive director and chief executive officer at Centrum Broking, shares insights with Puneet Wadhwa in an email interview. He discusses how the ‘Trump reset’ is not yet fully reflected in markets and that its full impact will become clear over the next quarter in terms of its effect on countries and sectors globally. Excerpts: fully priced in, and its full impact will become clear over the next quarter. The outlook for Indian equity markets is construcAre the risks for the SANDEEP NAYAK markets more from global tive. The gross domestic ED & CEO, developments or local? product growth for FY26 is Centrum Broking India’s growth outlook has estimated at around 6.5 per improved, supported by cent, and the earnings high-frequency indicators. As the margrowth for Nifty for FY26, based on ket adjusts to this uncertain new norconsensus estimates, is around 10 per mal, caution is advised. Exposure to cent. The valuation of Nifty, at just largecap stocks is a safer bet. Equities under 20x forward, is slightly below are likely to face volatility, and the key long-term averages. At the headline question is how one can use this vollevel, the markets seem fairly valued. atility to accrue shares in solid comTwo approaches will be critical for panies whose prices fall due to weak outperforming in the year ahead: first, sentiment rather than any deteriorabottom-up stock selection in growth tion in their business prospects. sectors of the Indian economy, and second, leveraging volatility and Which sectors and stocks will correction phases to add fundamentally retail and institutional investors solid stocks where price declines do focus on over the next year? not reflect any change in company Domestic consumption stories that fundamentals. are insulated from global uncertainties Domestic factors are largely priced should perform well. With the in. However, the Trump reset is not yet Trump’s reciprocal tariff announcement, imposing a 34 per cent tariff on US imports. The Nasdaq Composite dropped 5.8 per cent to 15,588, officially entering bear market territory (down 22 per cent from its December 2024 peak), while the Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged by 2,231 points, or 5.5 per cent, to 38,314.86 — its largest single-day drop since June 2020. The S&P 500 also fell 5.97 per cent to 5,074. Besides markets, analysts cautioned that tariff impositions, supply-chain disruptions, and the global growth slowdown would also impair corporate earnings. “Overall, earnings growth is expected to slow, with Nifty earnings per share likely to face a further 3-4 per cent cut in 2025-26, reducing it below our previous growth forecast of 12 per cent. Sectors such as defence, electronic manufacturing, real estate, utilities, and power may experience minimal impact,” said Jitendra Gohil, 2025-26: MARKET OUTLOOK & STRATEGY Outlook: Positive for 2025-26 GDP growth: 6.5% estimate Nifty earnings: 10% growth forecast chief investment strategist at Kotak Alternate Asset Managers. While the tariff imposition marks a critical moment for the world economy and markets, analysts observed that the future hinges on how China, India, Russia, and other emerging markets coordinate to weather this onslaught. “I believe that over the next two or three years, India will emerge much stronger. In the short term, however, we should brace for another 10 per cent correction, which is my personal outlook,” Gohil said. Technically, the Nifty has broken all major price and moving average supports, indicating further downside potential. “The immediate support lies at 22,600, while a decisive breach could open the door to 22,100. On the upside, any recovery would likely face stiff resistance in the 23,100–23,400 zone,” said Ajit Mishra, senior vice-president of research at Religare Broking. banks have undergone a long consolidation over the past few years, and have borne the brunt of foreign portfolio investor selling. Another sector driven by domestic factors and shielded from international developments is India’s healthcare and diagnostics. The increasing awareness among Indians about preventive healthcare bodes well for this sector, making it an area of growing investor interest. How do you see FY26 playing out for the Indian broking sector? Valuation: Nifty at 20x, fair value Strategy: Stock selection + capitalise on volatility Domestic factors: Priced in Trump reset: Impact to unfold Geopolitical risk: Short-term, buying opportunity individual tax relief measures introduced in the Budget, consumer staples and fast-moving consumer goods stocks are expected to benefit from demand growth in the next year or so, with this momentum likely extending into 2026-27. Financials look appealing from a top-down perspective, given the expected 6.5 per cent growth for the next two years and a strong credit growth backdrop. April 4, ’25 15,588 38,315 22,904 % CHANGE One-day Two-day -5.8 -11.4 -5.5 -9.3 -1.5 -1.8 Source: Bloomberg ‘FY26: A market-share grab year for broking’ What’s your outlook for the Indian stock markets for 2025-26 (FY26)? while other segments could see milder order slowdowns. The automotive segment, already under strain from a tech shift and soft demand, now faces new challenges — a proposed 25 per cent tariff by the US and expected countermeasures from other countries. These could disrupt supply chains, raise costs, delay capital expenditure, and trigger steep volume drops. In a recent note, KIE analysts led by Kawaljeet Saluja flagged rising caution among automotive original equipment manufacturers (OEMs) on R&D spending as policy risks compound demand uncertainty. Companies say peak investment is behind them, and Tier-I suppliers aren’t counting on better conditions in CY 2025. The Trump-era tariffs, they add, are likely to intensify short-term cost-cutting efforts. KIE sees limited scope for a quick recovery in deal pipelines, which could weigh on 2025-26 (FY26) prospects. ICICI Securities has downgraded ER&D stocks, citing mounting concerns in the automotive sector. Analysts led by Ruchi Mukhija say the space remains under pressure from weak demand, Chinese OEM competition, and tariffdriven input cost spikes. If the slump drags on, revenue growth could slip to high single digits in FY26-27 — a stark contrast to the over 20 per cent gains during the previous automotive upcycle. ICICI Securities has downgraded Tata Elxsi to ‘sell’ from ‘hold’. It also cut TTL to ‘sell’ (from ‘add’), LTTS and KPIT to ‘reduce’ (from ‘hold’), and maintained a ‘hold’ on Cyient. Trump tariffs push mkts down rabbit hole of uncertainty JUST 5 SECURE KEYS TO THE TRILLION-PLUS VAULT IN FY25 The ~1 trillion-plus market capitalisation club saw a net increase of only five companies in 2024-25 (FY25), as a sharp market selloff in the second half of the year erased earlier gains. At the end of FY25, 86 domestically listed firms had a market value above ~1 trillion, up from 81 a year ago. At the halfway mark (H1FY25), the count had peaked at 106, but a steep decline in stock prices from late September to early March pared down the list. Nearly a dozen companies joined the club during the year, including Divi’s Laboratories, Bajaj Holdings & Investment, Hyundai Motor India (a recent listing), Shriram Finance, and Mazagon Dock Shipbuilders. Meanwhile, eight companies dropped off the list: among them were IndusInd Bank, Indian Overseas Bank, Canara Bank, Dr Reddy’s Laboratories, Adani Total Gas, and Zydus Lifesciences. FY25 marked a tepid year for equities. The Nifty rose 5.3 per cent and the Sensex 7.5 per cent — both recording their weakest annual gains since 2022-23. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Nifty Smallcap 100 rose 7.5 per cent and 5.4 per cent, respectively. Q4FY25 revenue growth estimates (%) Q-o-Q Y-o-Y 13.7 16.8 -0.5 -2.1 2.3 14.4 -5.3 -3.0 -2.7 -2.4 Q4: Fourth quarter; FY25: 2024-25 A YEAR OF NARROW GAINS MATTHEW D MISKIN Co-Chief Investment Strategist, John Hancock Investment Management < Warning lights flash for ER&D as auto sector runs low on fuel ER&D downshifts on weak Q4, gloomy 2025; more downgrades loom “Markets may end up as their own worst enemy. A drawdown like this could rattle confidence — and drag down economic activity” Interest rates are expected to decline in FY26. A lower rate trajectory will affect the net interest margins of banks, particularly those with a lower proportion of fixed-rate loans. From a valuation standpoint, banks appear reasonably priced compared to their historical valuations. The top four private banks and the top two public sector banks should be part of a wellrounded portfolio. The private sector It’s a fact that operational costs continue to rise each year, eroding margins, and this reality is unlikely to change for the industry. However, tailwinds seen over the past five years are expected to persist, with retail investors in India becoming more mature in terms of systematically allocating funds to equities. The industry has seen numerous changes aimed at curbing speculation over the past year. Alongside these measures, the market also saw a correction driven by concerns about valuations and foreign investor withdrawals. The year ahead starts with headwinds due to sentiment around global factors. It is likely to be a ‘market-share grab’ year for the broking industry. STREET SIGNS Class in session: Sebi schools investors on money smarts The Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) is stepping up efforts to build financial literacy and investor awareness. Working with other financial regulators, Sebi is developing a Financial Literacy Assessment Portal under the National Centre for Financial Education. The portal will offer interactive quizzes, analysis tools, and enrolment programmes aimed at schools and investor groups. Chairman Tuhin Kanta Pandey, in his first public speech, underlined the need to educate investors and also outlined plans for a wideranging awareness campaign focused on cyberfrauds, stressing the urgency of staying alert online. US panic meter explodes; India hits snooze The Volatility Index (Vix), often dubbed the fear gauge, is flashing very different signals in the US and India. On Friday, the Chicago Board Options Exchange’s CBOE Vix surged 15.29 points, or 51 per cent, to 45.31 — its highest level in five years — suggesting deep anxiety in the market. Meanwhile, India’s Vix remained subdued at 13.76. Traders typically view a reading above 30 as a warning of turbulent conditions, often seen around major events such as elections or credit scares. Despite the calm in India, analysts caution that it might not last. “The US Vix shows markets have entered a phase of sharp swings, and India could follow, even if the Vix hasn’t picked it up yet,” said one analyst. The jump in US volatility follows a 10 per cent selloff over two days, triggered by concerns over President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs and the risk of a recession. The Nifty ended the week down 2.6 per cent at 22,904. The odd couple: FPIs, DIIs become partners in pullback In an uncommon move, both foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) and domestic institutional investors (DIIs) turned net sellers on Friday, dragging the benchmark Nifty down 1.5 per cent and wiping out ~10 trillion in market capitalisation. Provisional data shows FPIs offloaded stocks worth ~3,484 crore, while DIIs pulled out another ~1,720 crore. This kind of synchronised exit marks a break from the usual pattern where one steps in while the other retreats. The last time both were net sellers was on December 16, 2024. Market watchers see this unusual alliance as a red flag. In 2024-25, FPIs have sold stocks worth ~1.27 trillion, while DIIs — mainly mutual funds — have put in a record ~6 trillion. Contributed by SAMIE MODAK & KHUSHBOO TIWARI EVENTS THIS WEEK Date Events Apr 9 India: RBI Monetary Policy US: Weekly Mortgage Applications Survey Apr 10 US: Core Consumer Price Index, Jobless Claims, Federal Reserve Budget Balance UK: RICS House Price Balance China: Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index Results: TCS Apr 11 India: Industrial Production UK: Industrial Production, Balance of Trade Sources: Bloomberg, exchange Compiled by BS Research Bureau TOP BULK DEALS Date Apr 1 Apr 1 Apr 3 Apr 3 Apr 3 Apr 3 Apr 4 Apr 2 Apr 2 Apr 2 Apr 3 Scrip Client Price (~) Galaxy ICICI Prudential 2,092.0 Surfactants Mutual Fund (B) Galaxy ICICI Prudential 2,092.0 Surfactants Mutual Fund (B) Balaxi Pharma Unico Global 68.0 Opportunities Fund (S) Anzen India Chryseum 106.3 Energy Advisors (B) Anzen India Discovery Global 106.3 Energy Mauritius (S) Balaxi Pharma Nexpact (B) 68.0 NACL Mridul 135.2 Industries Dhanuka (S) Bright Outdoor Aegis 499.9 Media Investment Fund (B) Bright Outdoor Ashish Pannalal 499.9 Media Nanda (S) NACL Industries Triveni Trust (S) 123.1 SAR TeleVenture Vikas Kataria (S) 294.5 (B) Buy (S) Sell Source: Exchanges 14 MONEY MANAGER NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 1 > GUEST COLUMN K V KARTHIK What global finance must do to fight digital fraud The digital revolution in financial services has reshaped customer interactions, offering unmatched convenience, speed and accessibility. However, this progress has also fuelled a sharp rise in financial fraud, making it imperative for banks and financial institutions to proactively adopt cutting-edge risk mitigation techniques. The Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI’s) annual report for 2023–24 shows a worrying increase in fraud, with 36,075 cases reported, involving losses of ~13,930 crore. Deloitte India’s ‘India Banking Fraud Survey 2021’ reveals that nearly 40 per cent of fraud cases are linked to digitaland cyber-related issues. Similar trends have been observed globally, with financial regulators highlighting rising incidents of digital fraud. For instance, the US Federal Trade Commission reported that in 2023 alone, American consumers lost nearly $9 billion to digital fraud. Fraud methods have become sophisticated, challenging traditional detection systems. Phishing remains widespread, deceiving customers into revealing sensitive information through cleverly disguised emails and messages. Malware and ransomware continue to disrupt financial institutions, causing substantial operational losses. Social engineering attacks, flash fraud exploiting realtime payment systems, fraudulent mobile applications, and mule accounts further A framework comprising technology, regulatory compliance, customer education and strategic collaboration across sectors, will reduce the risks of fraud in global finance complicate the landscape. The RBI has strengthened regulatory frameworks. Its updated Master Directions on Fraud Risk Management (2024) stresses on a cohesive regulatory framework through comprehensive governance, including Early Warning Systems, dedicated fraud detection units, board-level oversight, fair classification of fraud cases and streamlined compliance processes. The RBI’s Digital Lending Guidelines (2023) set stringent standards, mandating explicit transparency on fees, interest rates and clear identification of digital lending partners. Financial institutions and regulators worldwide are using technology-driven solutions that incorporate artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning. Regulators such as the European Banking Authority advocate for AI-powered real-time transaction monitoring, recognising its ability. Biometric authentication methods — including fingerprint scans and facial recognition — are gaining traction globally. Regulators such as the UK’s Financial Conduct Authority recommend biometrics for protection against identity theft and unauthorised account access. Predictive analytics has become crucial in detecting fraud. Institutions use big data analytics to identify subtle fraud indicators by continuously analysing transaction patterns and customer behaviour. Multi-Factor Authentication (MFA) continues to be a widely endorsed method. MFA reduces unauthorised access risks through layered authentication involving passwords, PINs and biometric data. Robust data encryption is also universally acknowledged by global regulators, such as the European Union’s General Data Protection Regulation and the Payment Card Industry Data Security Standard, to protect sensitive customer information. A critical component in fraud prevention is customer education. The RBI has emphasised the importance of consumer awareness within its digital lending guidelines, urging institutions to educate borrowers about safe lending practices and potential risks. Combating digital fraud requires coordinated efforts at multiple levels. Crosssector collaboration between financial institutions, global regulators, law enforcement agencies and technology providers significantly enhances collective resilience. In conclusion, addressing digital financial fraud requires a balanced and integrated approach combining advanced technologies, robust global regulatory compliance, comprehensive customer education and strategic collaboration across sectors. Such a holistic framework not only reduces fraud risks but also fortifies customer trust, safeguarding global finance. The writer is Partner (Forensic & Financial Crime) at Deloitte India. The column has been edited for space From the shop floor Change is underway in the deployment of point-of-sale devices, but the business may need a tweak, reports RAGHU MOHAN T wo years ago, Worldline (India) — the Indian arm of the French payments firm — launched VABOX (Voice Alert Box): Merchants would get instant audio alerts on settlement of UPI (Unified Payments Interface) payments via QR codes in the language of their choice when customers checked out. It took the point-of-sale (PoS) device ecosystem nearly two decades to reach 10 million in deployments, whereas UPI sound boxes are at 12-14 million installations already. “This growth trajectory is expected to continue, with sound boxes projected to reach 40 million over the next five years. We have recognised the shift. The focus is on sound boxes and we have three lakh [300,000] devices. Our goal is to scale this to a million over the next two years,” says Ketan Patel, cofounder and chief executive officer (CEO) of Mswipe, one of the largest non-bank deployers in the country. The big change underway, as Ramakrishnan Ramamurthy, chief delivery and operations officer at Worldline (India), views it, is the sound box driving the next set of innovations: value-adds, embedded payments, check-out experience, in-system integrations, and comprehensive reconciliation. “The transition from card-present to card-not-present, and customerpresent to customer-not-present can also be enabled through embedded solutions like link-pay,” he says. On the ground What does deploying sound boxes lead to? It eliminates the need for merchants to check their phones for verification. For fast-moving and high-footfall shops, it enables merchants to manage multiple transactions at once, reducing delays and disputes. The real-time confirmation builds efficiency and trust, keeping operations smooth and allowing the merchant to focus on business. This has been helpful for barbers, grocers, food stalls, salons, and pharmacies, where high activity and limited staff can make manual payment verification impractical. The dynamics of in-store payments are being hewed again; this has implications for fortunes in retailing. Boston Consulting Group estimates the sector will be at $1 trillion by 2027. Merchant onboarding will be of singular importance in this journey. For what needs to be pencilled is the skew: We have far more pieces of plastic to swipe with — 982 million debit and 108 million credit cards in January 2025 — relative to the places to swipe at. This is because the number of PoS terminals, the swipes on them, the kind of cards used, the volumes and value of transactions, at malls like Palladium in Mumbai or DLF Emporio in New Delhi, far outstrip the same at millions of smaller outlets. Blame this poor run-rate on the one-time hardware cost of around ~10,000 plus monthly charges at ~300 or so, to onboard merchants. Now, link this with the fact that there’s nothing you incur by way of investments to do so via QRs and merchant apps. In March, UPI had 19.78 billion transactions (up 14 per cent over February) with a value of ~24.77 trillion (up 13 per cent). Here again, Mintoak — a merchant software as a service platform that enables banks to engage with merchant payments and commerce apps — is taking the fight to PhonePe and Paytm. The four catalysts to where we are at: “The focus is on sound boxes. Our goal is to scale this to a million over the next two years” KETAN PATEL Cofounder & CEO, Mswipe “A calibrated approach [is needed] where MDR is applied to medium and large merchants with a certain threshold” RAMAN KHANDUJA, Co-founder & CEO, Mintoak TOP DEPLOYERS OF PoS MACHINES Kotak Mahindra Bank 1% Canara Bandhan Yes Bank Bank Bank 1% 1% 1% IndusInd Bank 2% State Bank of India 15% BANKS' SHARE IN PoS UNITS DEPLOYED Others 4% Foreign banks 0.40% Public-sector banks 17.40% RBL Bank 21% Axis Bank 20% HDFC Bank 17% Private-sector banks 82.2% ICICI Bank 18% Source: Worldline's 'India Digital Payments Report 2H 2024' Reliance Jio, which crashed data pricing (smartphones existed earlier but data got democratised); the government’s move to knock off the merchant discount rate (MDR) on transactions up to ~2,000 on the Rupay platform (it’s another matter that this affected PoS deployers); cashbacks on UPI (think Paytm, Amazon Pay, Google Pay, PhonePe or a Cred); and the big boost to digital payments after the coronavirus pandemic. But what do sound boxes mean for legacy PoS devices? As Sumit Chopra, chief operating officer at Pine Labs, views it, there can never be a one-size-fits-all approach. Pine Labs Mini offers the dual functionality of a QR sound box and card payment acceptance from a single device. Its touchscreen devices have software enhancements to help merchants upsell products through in-built equated monthly installment integrations, run loyalty programmes, leverage utility applications, and address other operational requirements. An interesting aspect is the use of biometrics for authentication purposes for disbursal of loans by shadow banks. “The possibilities are endless and PoS terminals will continue to find newer and interesting use cases,” says Chopra. Sticking point The move in the Union Budget of July 2019 to go in for zero MDR on RuPay debit-cards-UPI on “The possibilities are endless and PoS terminals will continue to find newer and interesting use cases” SUMIT CHOPRA, COO, Pine Labs transactions of up to ~2,000; and the issue of free UPI transactions, continue to be in the spotlight. The MDR is a percentage of the transaction size which is shared by the card-issuing bank, the network — be it Visa, MasterCard or RuPay — and the acquiring entities — be it banks, or non-banks like Mswipe Technologies or Paytm. In the case of Rupay UPIdebit cards, without MDR income, the business of PoS providers and payment service providers is under pressure. While the government has proposed that the Reserve Bank of India and banks absorb the lack of MDR inflow (even as there are several ways for banks to recover such costs), there is no way for PoS deployers to recoup it. Again, neither the Nandan Nilekani report (2019) nor the Ratan Watal Committee (2016) made a case for zero-MDR, but said it should be determined by market forces. The industry has all along taken the stance that it would be better to give an MDR exemption on RuPay UPI-debit cards to all merchants with turnovers of up to ~20 lakh rather than on ticket-sizes of up to ~2,000 at all outlets. They believe that this will give relief to smaller merchants, but at larger outlets, the MDR should hold even if it is up to ~2,000. As matters stand, the “positive discrimination” sought to be achieved in the first place is getting distorted because the government picks up the tab for the larger merchants who can afford to absorb the MDR. There is growing stress on the payments infrastructure and a sustainable model is the need of the hour. “A calibrated approach where MDR is applied to medium and large merchants with a certain threshold can strike the right balance. Many of these merchants already have an outgoing MDR and are better positioned to absorb the cost,” points out Raman Khanduja, cofounder and CEO, Mintoak. It is a mixed message from the shop floor. “The big change underway is that the sound box is driving the next set of innovations” RAMAKRISHNAN RAMAMURTHY, Chief Delivery & Operations Officer, Worldline (India) ‘State-run banks can do more for affordable housing’ The Indian Mortgage Guarantee Company (IMGC) — the only of its kind in the country — has guaranteed over ~8,700 crore in FY25, up 40 per cent over FY24. The total guarantees written by the company are at about at ~35,000 crore. IMGC aims to ramp up its portfolio five-fold to ~1 trillion over the next few years. MAHESH MISRA, managing director (MD) and chief executive officer (CEO) of IMGC, spoke with Raghu Mohan over the phone on issues facing the home loan sector. Edited excerpts: Can you give us a sense of the stress level in home loans? Isn’t it comforting that the underlying asset is appreciating, and provides a cushion? We are starting to observe early warning signals, particularly in Price appreciation matters if the affordable housing. But I wouldn’t property is being viewed as an necessarily classify it as stress just investment. In recent years, the yet. Housing finance is dominated percentage of those buying homes by banks, which account for about for self-occupation has increased 70 per cent of this business, but it is significantly, and speculators have the housing finance companies almost vanished. So while it’s true (HFCs) which are more involved in that the asset appreciates, this the affordable segment; and doesn’t offer much solace many of them rely on to borrowers living in the advanced analytics to monitor home who have to manage risks. One key observation is their repayments. that individuals with higher MAHESH MISRA leverage are seeing their credit MD & CEO, IMGC What explains the bureau scores deteriorating. If reluctance of some banks someone had a score of 740 to venture into affordable three years ago, they are now housing even as they are fine giving defaulting on unsecured loans, out unsecured loans? which could eventually impact the There are two dichotomies here. ability to repay home loans. That First, affordable housing said, home loans generally hold a has higher unit higher priority in repayment economics — hierarchies as these are typically underwriting a ~2 lakh self-occupied homes. So, while loan costs almost the delinquencies are slightly higher, same as this is mainly due to overunderwriting a ~45 leveraging, especially in the selflakh loan. It involves employed segment. lending to a riskier segment; and requires a specific set of underwriting skills that banks don’t necessarily have or want to develop, such as assessing cash flows instead of declared incomes. Additionally, not all lending institutions have the same level of collateral comfort. HFCs are willing to take more risks on collateral, including the likelihood of demolition. State-run banks are already committed to other financial inclusion initiatives like Mudra and opening of JanDhan accounts; and don’t have a specific mandate to grow affordable housing. The second dichotomy arises from government policy. The government has launched a guarantee programme for loans up to ~20 lakh for borrowers with annual incomes of ~6 lakh or less, to promote affordable housing. At the same time, the Reserve Bank of India has revised the priority sector lending (PSL) guidelines, raising the cap for PSL-eligible housing loans to ~50 lakh from ~20 lakh. This change, while understandable due to inflation adjustments, creates an inconsistency in messaging. On one hand, the government promotes low-ticket home loans; on the other, banks now have an easier route to meet PSL targets by giving out bigger ticket home loans. What share of IMGC-guaranteed loans are under the Pradhan Mantri Awas Yojana (PMAY)? Nearly 85 per cent of the loans we guarantee fall under the PMAY. For affordable housing to grow, staterun banks must start taking it more seriously. Currently, the average ticket size for a housing loan from them is around ~30 lakh. Unless banks focus on the ~10-15 lakh loan segment, growing affordable housing will remain a challenge. Moreover, half of the housing loans availed of are concentrated in the top five or six cities. There’s significant untapped economic potential if these banks begin to expand their reach to smaller geographies and take on higher risks. Right now, most state-run banks heavily favour the salaried segment; and the selfemployed segment is often underserved. While programmes like ours can act as a backstop to mitigate risk, the mindset around lending to the self-employed segment remains cautious. What has been the recent trend in sign-ups for IMGC’s support? We now have more than 25 lenders onboard, and in the last quarter of FY25, signed up three new lenders: GIC Housing, Bank of India, and a HFC we hadn’t worked with previously. We’ve guaranteed over ~8,700 crore in FY25, which is nearly a 40 per cent increase from last year. The total guarantees we’ve written are approximately ~35,000 crore. Until now, we’ve only guaranteed home loans, but we’ve recently received approval to guarantee other products, such as loans against property, provided they are backed by residential collateral. Further, the National Housing Bank has launched a securitisation company, RMBS Development Company, which will improve liquidity. As this market accelerates, we will likely play a role by guaranteeing tranches, making the overall structure more capitalefficient. TAKE TWO 15 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 < . A PINCH OF SUGAR? Expect a 25-bp rate cut, but no change in stance As crushing season comes to a close, there’s concern that sugar production levels might not be all that sweet As headline inflation moves closer to RBI’s target, and growth momentum remains elusive, a rate cut may be on the cards SANJEEB MUKHERJEE New Delhi, 6 April I Prices & payments Isma also estimates that sugar consumption in 2024–25 will be around 28 MT, down from 29 MT last year. The dip is attributed to the absence of the election-related bump that typically boosts sugar demand. Millers, meanwhile, are confident that retail prices would hover around ~43-44 per kg – almost the same as last year. Ballani said the biggest highlight this season was that they’d cleared almost 99.9 per cent of last year’s cane dues, and also settled nearly 80 per cent of current season’s dues. He credited In March, the US Federal Reserve side). It dropped to 5.48 per cent in kept policy rates unchanged, November and further to 5.22 per extending the pause that began in cent in December. Analysts expect CPI to decline January after three successive rate cuts. It preferred to wait and assess further in March to around 3.5 per the impact of US President Donald cent. Overall, for the fourth quarter Trump’s economic policies. The of FY25, inflation could average Fed is now closely watching two key below 4 per cent, compared with factors: Is inflation heading towards the RBI’s estimate of 4.4 per cent. the 2 per cent target? And is the US For the full year, it is expected to be economy weakening more than around 4.6 per cent, again below the RBI’s projection of 4.8 per cent. what the central bank expected? Assuming a normal monsoon, a For the second consecutive time, the Fed has held borrowing stable rupee, and soft global crude costs steady after bringing them prices, inflation could align with down to the 4.25–4.5 per cent the RBI’s 4.2 per cent estimate range in December 2024 — a level for FY26. The last pollast seen in icy was December 2022. announced on The Fed’s latest February 7. On projections signal that day, the doltwo rate cuts durlar traded at Rs ing the current 87.59. Since then, year, but the marthe rupee has ket is expecting strengthened. more as the econLast Friday, it omy may weaken ended at ~85.23 more than anticito the dollar, pated and inflation after hitting an could turn out to intraday high of be higher. ~84.95. The last The Bank of time the dollar England also kept TAMAL BANDYOPADHYAY traded below ~85 its policy rate unchanged at 4.5 per cent in its was on December 18, 2024. Bond yields have also been movMarch meeting, factoring in rising global trade uncertainties that ing southwards. The 10-year paper escalated into a full-blown trade yield was 6.7 per cent on February war last week. It had previously cut 7. Last Friday, it was 6.47 per cent, the policy rate by 25 basis points below the 6.5 per cent level, last seen in January 2022. At the shorter in February. There was no surprise in the end, 364-day treasury bill yield decision to hold rates, but Bank of dropped from 6.54 per cent to 6.3 England Governor Andrew Bailey per cent during this time. The most critical change is seen was explicit about the rate outlook when he said the Bank still believed in liquidity. Since mid-December rates were “on a gradually declining 2024, the system was facing a path”. Economists expect two more liquidity shortage, which at one rate cuts this year, with the first point reached ~3.3 trillion. After a likely in May. Inflation remains little over four months, by April, we’re seeing surplus liquidity — it above the 2 per cent target. China, too, kept its policy rates was around ~2.16 trillion last unchanged in the third week of Thursday. As a result, the RBI March, after a 25 basis point cut in refrained from conducting a 14-day October 2024. Its central bank has variable rate repo auction that day. Against this backdrop, it’s been balancing a modest pickup in growth with pressure on the cur- safe to bet on yet another rate cut rency amid an escalating trade war. this week. In February, the RBI cut the repo What’s the Reserve Bank of India rate by 25 basis points (bps) to 6.25 (RBI) expected to do this week? First, let’s examine what has per cent — the first cut since May changed in India since the 2020, when it slashed the rate by 40 bps to 4 per cent amid the Covid February policy announcement. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) crisis. It was also the central bank’s inflation data for March will be first rate move since February 2023, released after the policy meeting. when the rate had been raised to In February, it had dropped to a 6.5 per cent. (One basis point is a seven-month low of 3.61 per cent, hundredth of a percentage point.) However, there was no change down from 4.31 per cent in January. Food inflation was at its lowest level in the monetary policy stance in since May 2023, even as core infla- February; it remained neutral. RBI tion (non-food, non-oil) edged up. Governor Sanjiv Malhotra’s first The CPI trend has been on a policy also offered no forward guiddownward trend since October, ance. He did, however, commit to when it hit 6.21 per cent — piercing providing sufficient liquidity. He the upper band of the RBI’s infla- said the RBI would monitor evolvtion target (4 per cent with a 2-per- ing liquidity and financial concentage-point margin on either ditions, and take proactive meas- SEASONAL STORY Estimated sugar balance sheet for 2024-25 (Oct ’24 to Sep ’25) in million tonnes 8 Opening Stock 26.4 Net sugar 34.4 Total production* availability 28 Internal consumption 1 Exports 5.4 Closing stock *After providing for ethanol diversion; the cooperative mills have estimated a net sugar production of 25.9 million tonnes and closing stocks at 4.4-4.8 million tonnes Source: Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (Isma) the government’s timely decision to allow 1 MT of exports, enabling farmers to receive nearly ~21,000 crore in payments between January and March. Once the full export quota of 1 MT is shipped, the sugar sector is expected to earn approximately $500 million in revenue, Ballani added. Echoing Isma’s view, Tarun Sawhney, vice chairman and managing director of Triveni Engineering and Industries Ltd, dismissed talk of supply shortage due to drop in production as disinformation. He said the decision to allow exports was a well-thought-out move — “I wish it had been a bit more.” It helped push up prices slightly in a market where the Fair and Remunerative Price and State Advised Price have been consistently rising, while sugar prices have remained flat, he said. A 2–3 per cent increase isn’t significant, he added, but it makes a difference. He stressed the importance of exports in keeping India linked to the global sugar market. “Now that we’re in the game, I hope we’re allowed to export next year as well.” Festive worries? Sawhney also downplayed concerns around the early arrival of Diwali (around October 20) and its potential impact on consumption and stock levels. In fact, he argued that an early Diwali could prove beneficial. “Sugar factories usually wait for Diwali, and then start their operations,” he said. “So, Diwali coming early means we’ll have an early start, which means you’ll have more fresh sugar in the market.” He also expressed optimism about exports, pointing out that the bulk of outbound shipments would take place in April and May, likely fetching favourable prices as global sugar markets begin to firm up. “Northern mills have sold off nearly 95 per cent of their allocated export quotas,” he said. The remaining volumes are now with traders, and usually get executed through direct dealings, he added. One factor that could influence sugar policy decisions is the upcoming election in Bihar. According to political observers, the polls are likely to be held in early October. Any sharp spike in sugar prices during the festival-heavy months of Diwali and Chhath could weigh on the elec- STATSGURU Trump Tariffs: Hopes & fears toral prospects of the ruling government. Though the broader industry maintains that sugar production will be sufficient to meet domestic consumption and ethanol requirements, some remain concerned about availability during the crucial festival window from August to October. Senior industry officials estimate that after accounting for domestic consumption of 28.5 MT, 1 MT of exports, and 3.2–3.5 MT of diversion to ethanol, the domestic closing stock by endSeptember could be 4.4–4.8 MT — creating a touch-and-go situation right in the middle of peak festive demand. While that level of stock can cover the first two months of consumption, any further drop in production could complicate things, said one senior industry official. His own production estimates were currently aligned with those of the cooperative sector — around 25.9 MT. However, a further dip of 100,000 tonnes remains possible as some mills have been diverting sugar to produce Extra Neutral Alcohol, drawn by its high market prices, he added. Adding to regional concerns, he pointed out that most of the 4.4–4.8 MT of closing stock would likely be located in North India, which could cause a shortfall in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Ganesh Chaturthi kicks off the festive season in Maharashtra from August, so the supplydemand balance in the western and southern regions could be tight, he said. BANKER’S TRUST A case for early crushing To preempt potential shortages, the official recommended that the central government introduce incentives for mills to begin crushing earlier for the 2025–26 season. Crushing typically begins in November, with new sugar arriving in the market from December, he said. “But if mills are incentivised for the loss in recovery due to early crushing, they can start sugarcane crushing from October 1 itself,” the official said. This, he added, would not only ensure that fresh sugar enters the market earlier, but would also enable the full utilisation of closing stocks. The months ahead will unfold the sugar story, whether sweet —or not so. SHIKHA CHATURVEDI & YASH KUMAR SINGHAL US President Donald Trump has imposed a “concessional” 26 per cent general tariff on imports from India. Many say this will give New Delhi a distinct advantage over competitors in certain sectors. India is not a major player in the US market – 10th-biggest with a share of just 2.68 per cent in the US’ total imports in 2024 (Chart 1). Electrical machinery & equipment is India’s top category of exports to the US, followed by gems & jewellery, precious & semi-precious stones, including pearls, and pharmaceutical products (Chart 2). After tariffs, India may get an edge over China, Vietnam and Bangladesh in textiles. But China and Vietnam were way ahead of India in the US’ textile imports in 2024 (Chart 3). In the automobile component sector, India's position is even weaker. Mexico takes the lion’s share of the US’ imports of auto parts, followed by Canada and China. While India struggles in this space, it might now be hurt further, as the first two countries have been exempted in the recent tariff hikes (Chart 4). Pharmaceuticals remain India’s strength in the US. For now, these will continue to benefit from a steady demand, as no new trade barriers have been imposed on them (Chart 5). Even as India runs a trade deficit with the rest of the world, it has consistently managed a surplus with the US (Chart 6). 1 INDIA AT 10TH SPOT IN US IMPORTS ures to ensure orderly liquidity. Malhotra has indeed been walking the talk. The RBI has been infusing liquidity through dollar-rupee buy-sell swaps, daily variable rate repo (VRR) auctions of varying tenures, and open market operations (OMOs) — buying government bonds from banks and releasing rupee liquidity. First, it introduced long-term VRR auctions of 42, 49, and 56 days, infusing ~1.83 trillion to ease liquidity deficit. Since January, it has conducted OMOs worth ~2.5 trillion. Second, an additional ~80,000 crore in OMOs has been announced, to be conducted in phases till April 29. The third liquidity tool has been three-year dollar buy-sell swaps. Through $25 billion in forex swaps, the RBI has injected about ~2.15 trillion into the system. The RBI is expected to continue deploying different tools to infuse liquidity to ensure the transmission of rate cuts. Post a rate cut without a change in the policy stance, the RBI will keep the door open for either a pause or another rate cut in June. Changing the stance at the juncture may be unwise when a fierce global trade war is unfolding before us. While its impact on India is still being assessed, the positive signals for now are subdued inflation and the fact that the worst is behind the rupee, at least for the time being. This has created breathing room for the RBI, despite global uncertainties. It could go for a rate cut, maintain a neutral stance, and keep liquidity taps open until government spending picks up. In February, the RBI projected India’s real gross domestic product (GDP) growth at 6.7 per cent for FY26. For FY25, it cited the National Statistical Office’s first advance estimate of 6.4 per cent. These projections are unlikely to change at this point. Since January, central banks in several emerging markets — including Australia, Indonesia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan and Thailand, besides India — have cut policy rates. While New Zealand opted for a 50 bps cut, the others have made 25 bps reductions. This trend is expected to continue. As headline inflation moves closer to the RBI’s target, and growth momentum remains elusive, the central bank could follow up with more rate cuts. Will it, for sure? Ask US President Donald Trump. The writer is an author and senior advisor to Jana Small Finance Bank Ltd. His latest book: Roller Coaster: An Affair with Banking. To read his previous columns, please log on to www.bankerstrust.in X: @TamalBandyo 2 61% OF INDIAN EXPORTS TO US BELONG TO 6 MAJOR CATEGORIES Country-wise imports by US Share of major exports out of total Indian exports to US (in %) Items FY21 FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25* Electrical machinery & equipment 5.33 4.7 8.65 14.29 14.88 Mineral fuel, oil & its products 2.23 6.7 8.68 7.52 5.54 Pharmaceutical products 13.89 8.49 8.71 10.42 11.00 Apparel & clothing articles 11.6 11.54 10.31 9.66 9.96 Pearls & precious/semi-precious stones 16.89 19.25 16.02 12.84 11.70 Nuclear reactor machinery & parts 7.85 7.61 7.65 7.95 8.23 Total 57.79 58.29 60.02 62.68 61.31 Note: USA's total imports in 2024 were $3,267.38 billion. Source: International Trade Administration website of USA, BS calculations 3 INDIA A DISTANT THIRD IN US TEXTILE IMPORTS 24.45 Top countries by share in US textile imports in 2024 (in %) 15.15 Note: *April-December, apparel and clothing articles include items present in chapters 61, 62 and 63 of the Harmonised System (HS) code. Source: Department of Commerce, BS calculations 4 MINIMAL SHARE 5 STRONG SHARE Top countries by share in the US’ automotive part imports in 2024 (in %) India 1.57 41.15 Mexico 9.87 Canada 9.25 8.01 6.42 China Japan Korea 8.91 IN PHARMA India's share in US imports by category in 2024 (in %) Pharmaceutical Products > Engineering goods > Natural pearls & precious stones > Iron and Steel > 6.06 2 . 5 1 . 45 0 n a few days, most sugar mills across India will conclude their sugarcane crushing operations for the current season (October 2024– September 2025). This year, industry watchers are keeping a close eye on final production numbers and their potential impact on domestic sugar availability in the coming months. Typically, cane crushing begins around November and wraps up within a few months, but sugar marketing continues through September, making the entire cycle a single season. This time, the supply situation has become tricky. Net sugar production — after accounting for diversion towards ethanol — is estimated to have declined by nearly 16–18 per cent from last year. The drop is primarily due to disease infestation in Uttar Pradesh (UP) and a prolonged drought in Maharashtra, the country’s two largest cane-growing states. The fall in production has revealed rifts within the industry, with one section urging the government to halt the one million tonnes (MT) of sugar exports allowed in January to ensure adequate supply during lean months. They argue that India’s ethanol blending programme, which relies heavily on sugarcanebased molasses, could suffer if domestic supplies fall short. However, the Indian Sugar and Bio-Energy Manufacturers Association (Isma), the country’s leading sugar industry body, has dismissed fears of a supply crunch. It maintains that sufficient sugar will be available to meet both domestic consumption and ethanol requirements. In a recent statement, ISMA said though net sugar production for the 2024–25 season is now projected at 26.4 MT — down from its January estimate of 27.2 MT due to lower recovery in UP and reduced output in Maharashtra — this shortfall will not affect supply or prices. The country is expected to end the season with about 5.4 MT in closing stock — more than sufficient for domestic needs, it said. The closing stock for the season would, therefore, be higher than the normative requirement of two months’ production estimated, at 4.5 MT, it added. ISMA’s confidence comes from a robust opening stock of 8 MT at the start of the 2024–25 season. “We will have a very comfortable opening stock for the 2025–26 season,” said Deepak Ballani, ISMA’s director general, in an interview with Business Standard last month. He added that the next sugarcane crop looks promising, thanks to a favourable 2024 monsoon and improved reservoir levels, which have helped boost planting in Maharashtra and Karnataka. Consequently, he said, the 2025–26 crushing season is expected to begin on time in October. He had added that varietal replacement in UP and other northern states had shown marked improvement, which should lead to better yields and higher recovery rates in the 2025–26 season in these regions. Source: International Trade Administration, BS calculations 6.97 3.1 3 Source: International Trade Administration, BS calculations 3.83 6 INDIA RUNS A SURPLUS WITH THE US, DEFICIT ELSEWHERE India's trade balance with US and the rest of the world (in $ billion) US INDIA China Vietnam REST OF THE WORLD Mexico Bangladesh Source: International Trade Administration, BS calculations Note:* April-December Source: Department of Commerce StatsGuru is a weekly feature. Every Monday, Business Standard guides you through the numbers you need to know to make sense of the headlines 16 NEW DELHI | MONDAY, 7 APRIL 2025 > Medtech sector goes local to ‘Many myths among global clinical researchers about India capabilities’ develop high-end devices India has around 8 per cent share of global clinical trials, and several pharma companies take their early-stage trials overseas due to regulatory bottlenecks here. SEEMA PAI, president of the Indian Society for Clinical Research (ISCR), in an email interview with Sohini Das, advocates for more predictable regulatory timelines through streamlined review processes and enhanced digital infrastructure to enable early clinical development in India. Edited excerpts: SANKET KOUL New Delhi, 6 April W India’s diverse population is an asset for clinical trials, offering researchers access to rich datasets. Why is the Indian demographic not adequately represented in global clinical trials? DATA PULSE India’s medical device trade data ($ bn) nImports nExports 8.54 8.19 7.49 6.24 5.85 2.29 2.53 2.92 3.39 3.79 2019-20 2020-21 2021-22 2022-23 2023-24 4.26 1.95 2024-25* *: Data till September 2024, Source: Dept of Pharmaceuticals Report artificial heart to function for 10 to 12 years while the patient leads a life of good quality. “A prototype of the artificial heart has been developed, and we are now in the process of obtaining all the essential ethical approvals for animal testing, followed by exacting clinical trials,” the team added. Following regulatory approvals, the IITK team expects the implantable device to be ready for commercialisation by the end of 2027. While a LVAD may cost between ~70 to 80 lakh, IIT-K’s prototype is expected to cost between ~10 to 15 lakhs. Similarly, Gurugram-based SS Innovations is working on developing a pediatric surgical robotic system and a mobile operating room that meets all required standards necessary to conduct surgery. Sudhir Srivastava, founder, chairman and CEO, SS Innovations, said that by making our surgical robotic system indigenously, we have made great efforts to help bring down the running costs of not only the system, but for the instruments and consumables as well. Experts believe that such indigenous projects are expected to drive down costs. Himanshu Baid, managing director of medical device maker Poly Medicure, said that one of the primary cost drivers in surgical procedures is the reliance on expensive imported medical devices, which come with high procurement costs, maintenance expenses, and recurring consumable costs. “By manufacturing these technologies within India, costs can be significantly reduced due to lower production expenses, reduced import duties, and locally available spare parts and consumables,” he added. Another industry executive added that lower device costs directly translate into reduced hospital charges, making critical procedures more within reach for a larger population. The move towards manufacturing highend devices also assumes significance as CDSCO last month disallowed all imports of pre-owned and refurbished devices over concerns of patient safety, providing a window for domestic manufacturers working under PLI or their own projects. Experts indicate that the high-end devices market was usually dominated by pre-owned, refurbished devices imported from countries such as the US, Germany and Singapore. Rajiv Nath, forum coordinator of Association of Indian Medical Device Industry (AiMeD), said that the move has provided domestic manufacturers a level playing field by stopping the import of refurbished devices, with domestic manufacturers facing reduced competition from cheaper, imported alternatives. India is a significant player in global clinical trials today for all multinational companies with a footprint in the country. Most of these companies have an Indian entity and strive to collaborate with their global counterparts to place global clinical trials in India. However, many myths persist among global clinical researchers who are unfamiliar with India’s capabilities, and have not updated themselves on the country’s advancements. Local affiliates work to dispel these myths, but concerns about regulatory pathways and the predictability of approval timelines often remain for global sponsors. While the 2019 NDCT Rules improved processes, the socialisation may not have reached all global decision-makers. When planning global trials where synchronised starts are critical, sponsors may hesitate to include Indian sites if they perceive potential delays. India has an 8 per cent share in global clinical trials, as against China’s 29 per cent. What steps do policymakers need to take to increase this share? India should expedite its journey to become a full member of the International Council for Harmonisation (ICH). This would be a step towards more What kind of discussions are you having with the Indian regulator, and what are the key demands of the clinical trial industry? We are advocating for more predictable regulatory timelines through streamlined review processes and enhanced digital infrastructure. Our engagement with the Central Drugs Standard Control Organisation (CDSCO) has been positive and the collaboration has improved over time. The interactions are also leading to acceptability of data generated from further deliberations on enabling early Indian participants and eliminate clinical development in India for all new redundant requirements. We urgently discoveries (in India and outside). need all stakeholders to work together to Another focus area is capacity ensure we deliver on our late phase trials building within regulatory bodies. We've and further enable first-in-human trials proposed collaborative training for internationally discovered molecules programmes between ISCR, global in India. This restriction regulatory experts, and significantly limits our Indian authorities to share participation in early-phase best practices in reviewing research, forcing many Indian complex trial designs and companies to conduct their new therapeutic early clinical development modalities. The clinical SEEMA PAI studies outside India. research industry's Policymakers should primary demands include President, ISCR establish dedicated clinical acceptance of global data research units within premier institutions standards (CDISC), mutual recognition of like Aiims and NIPERs, coupled with inspection outcomes, and India’s full substantial tax incentives for research membership in ICH and PIC/S to and development (R&D) investments. eliminate duplication of efforts. Regulatory authorities would also need support in developing their domain More on business-standard.com PM MODI INAUGURATES PAMBAN BRIDGE IN TN PHOTO: X/@NARENDRAMODI ith 80 to 85 per cent of the country’s needs for medical devices currently being met through imports, both the government and medtech manufacturers are looking to accelerate projects to indigenously develop high-end equipment. Taking steps towards this, the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (Aiims), New Delhi, last month announced its plans to install the country’s first indigenously developed 1.5 tesla magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) machine by October this year. The project is to be trialled in partnership with the Society for Applied Microwave Electronic Engineering and Research (SAMEER), an autonomous body under the Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology. Similarly, Bengaluru-based medical device maker Voxelgrids Innovations, which claims to be the first and the only indigenous manufacturer of MRI scanners in India, has already received a licence from the Central Drug Standards Control Organisation (CDSCO) for commercial manufacture and sales. According to the Department of Pharmaceuticals’ annual report for 202425, India imported medical devices worth $8.1 billion, while exports stood at $3.7 billion in the financial year 2023-24 (FY24). The move not just aims to increase selfreliance, but also ensure affordability. Arjun Arunachalam, founder and CEO, Voxelgrids, told Business Standard that the company’s MRI machine can cost approximately 50 per cent less compared to the value and performance of MRI products offered by other vendors. On an average, a 1.5 T MRI machine can cost anywhere between ~3 crore to ~4.5 crore for hospitals. High-end medical devices include advanced technologies used for screening, monitoring, diagnosis, or treatment, often with high costs and complex functionalities, including devices like PET/CT scanners, MRI machines, and surgical robots. A seven-member multi-disciplinary team of experts from the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Kanpur is at the centre of the development of Hridayantra, country’s first indigenously developed left ventricular assist device (LVAD), which works as an implantable mechanical blood pump. The team working at IIT Kanpur said that the design target aims to allow the expertise and are also in need of resources for ensuring they can work together with the stakeholders to enhance approval timelines further. We are also lacking in specialised workforce development within the industry, and a national mission to train clinical research professionals across the ecosystem would address this gap. Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday inaugurated the Pamban bridge, India’s first vertical-lift sea bridge and flagged off a train service linking the Rameswaram island to the rest of the country. Tamil Nadu Chief Minister M K Stalin skipped the event. Modi flagged off a Coast Guard ship that sailed under the bridge and also laid the foundation stone for various rail and road projects worth over ~8,300 crore. Modi said efforts were on to take the Tamil language and heritage to all corners of the world. Without naming anyone, the PM said he gets letters from leaders of Tamil Nadu and “they do not sign in Tamil”, and asked them to at least sign in Tamil. Earlier, the Prime Minister prayed at the PTI Ramanathaswamy temple.
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