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Impacts of Energy Sector on Economy, Social and Political Landscape, and
Sustainable Development
Preprint · October 2019
DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.2.12626.91847
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Impacts of Energy Sector on Economy, Social and Political Landscape, and Sustainable
Development
Gentian LIKO1
1
PhD Student, Sid and Reva Dewberry Dept. of Civil, Environmental and Infrastructure Engineering,
George Mason University, Nguyen Engineering Bldg. email: gliko@gmu.edu
ABSTRACT
Energy fuels global economic activity– a crucial input to nearly all of the goods and
services of the modern world. Stable, reasonably priced energy supplies are the core to sustaining
and improving the living standards of billions of people. This study analyses the linkages
between the energy system and the U.S. economy, focusing on the big four macroeconomic
indicators – GDP, employment, welfare, and trade. Looking further into energy, this sector especially the transition to renewable energy – is scrutinized through the loop of social and
political perspective. Concentrating on socio-political acceptance - one of the major substantial
drivers identifying the success of transitions between energy models – this paper provides an
analysis of the socio-political parameters that attribute to the energy sector development.
Another inight of this study is to capture and measure the effects of renewable energy
deployment in sustainable development on the basis of climate change, environmentalism,
globalization, and future developments utilizing in the US.
INTRODUCTION
Energy is the lifeblood of the global economy. As populations expand, living standards
improve and consumption rises, total demand for energy is expected to increase by 21% by 2030
(IEA, 2015). The world rests its energy dependence mainly on sources whose reserves are finite
and therefore, in danger of depletion. Fossil fuels, petroleum, coal, crude oil and natural gas are
among these sources of thermal energy (Bildirici and Ozaksoy, 2016). Energy and natural
resources have been considered over time, as both sources of economic chances and concerns for
socioeconomic and environmental sustainability (Kester et al. 2015). Therefore, the identified
risks of using fossil fuels have subsequently influenced the interest in renewable energy (Turner
1999). Renewable energy, often referred to as clean energy, comes from natural sources or
processes that are constantly replenished. For instance, sunlight or wind keep shining and
blowing, even if their availability depends on time and weather. Some of the renewable energy
types are solar, wind, hydroelectric, biomass, geothermal energy, and ocean (NRDC 2018).
Renewable energy (also called “renewables”) has been acknowledged worldwide as a necessity
for gratifying the growing long-term electricity demands of both, the developed and developing
worlds (Sheikh et al 2016).
As the main focus of this paper, the United States produce and use many different types
and sources of energy, which can be grouped into general categories such as primary and
secondary; renewable and nonrenewable. Primary energy sources include fossil fuels (petroleum,
natural gas, and coal), nuclear energy, and renewable sources of energy. Electricity is a
secondary energy source that is generated from primary energy sources (EIA 2019).
1
The recent global flood of concern regarding the growing emissions of air pollutants and
global climate change on the one hand and increasing energy consumption and the security of
energy supplies on the other has involved, among other countries, the United States (Fuss et al.
2009). This concern goes hand in hand with the occurrence of environmental problems leading to
the disruption of the balance of ecosystems (Economou, 2010). Given the human activity threats
to the sustainability of environmental and socioeconomic systems, the international community,
realizing where this situation may lead, is compelled to take measures aimed at reducing
greenhouse gas emissions and tackling climate change by favoring renewable energy sources as
a means of reducing the use of fossil fuels (Li et al. 2009).
The objective of this paper is to promote the establishment of a subtle and in-depth
analysis to identify and classify the criteria and sub-criteria of the energy that play a role in
impacting the economical and socio-political perspectives, concentrating mainly in the United
States, as well as defining the sustainable developments in the energy sector.
BACKGROUND
Energy sector in the United States
History informs us that changes in energy end use are equally important drivers of energy
transitions, especially those changes that improve the efficiency of energy conversion and lower
the cost of energy services to the consumer while at the same time improving the quality of those
services (Grubler, 2012).
The United States have experienced the energy consumption patterns changing over the
history as new energy sources have been developed and as the uses of energy have changed
during the time. Wood - a renewable energy source - served as the preeminent form of energy
until the mid-to-late-1800s, even though water mills were important to some early industrial
growth. Coal became dominant in the late 19th century before being overtaken by petroleum
products in the middle of the last century, a time when natural gas usage also rose quickly (EIA,
2011). Since the mid-20th century, usage of coal has again increased in the US, mainly as a
primary energy source for electric power generation and a new form of energy. The gravimetric
and spatial energy density of coal contributed more than any other factor to the energy sector
taking over of coal by surpassing wood. The analysis showed that a kilogram of coal generated
about 33% energy than a kilogram of dry wood (O’Connor and Cleveland, 2014). During this
period of time, especially after 1970, nuclear electric power has made an increasingly significant
contribution in the overall energy distribution scheme. After a pause in the 1970s, the use of
petroleum and natural gas resumed growth, and the overall pattern of energy usage since the late
20th century has remained fairly stable (EIA, 2011).
The US society's energy use changed forever with the low-cost automobile and the spread
of electricity. Power plants became larger and larger, until massive coal plants and hydroelectric
dams were built. Power lines extended hundreds of miles between cities, bringing electricity to
rural areas during the Great Depression. The cheap car made suburbs possible, which in turn
made cheap cars necessary, feeding the cycle of suburban sprawl (Union of Concerned
Scientists, 2019). The history of energy consumption in the US between 1775-2009 is presented
in Figure 1.
2
Figure 1: History of energy consumption in the United States, 1775 – 2009 (EIA, 2011)
While the Nation's overall energy history is one of significant change as new forms of
energy were developed, the three major fossil fuels–petroleum, natural gas, and coal, which
together provided an average of 87% of total U.S. primary energy use over the past decade–have
dominated the U.S. fuel mix for well over 100 years (AEO, 2019). However, the US has
encountered a rapid expansion in wind and solar power and as natural gas is replacing coal for
electricity generation on a large scale, petroleum use has peaked. Other evidence suggests that
major change in energy supply can also be slow as fossil fuels accounted for 86% of primary
energy use in 1990 in the United States; in 2013 that share stood at 82% (O’Connor and
Cleveland, 2014).
Assuming continuation of current laws, regulations, and policies, the reliance on the three
major fossil fuels will be significant through at least 2035, when they still provide over threequarters of the Nation's overall primary energy supply. Changes in policies could, of course, lead
to changes in this projection (IRENA, 2016).
ENERGY IMPACTS
Energy’s Influences on Economy Domain
The main energy sources in the United States were the three major fossil fuels—
petroleum (31.8%), natural gas (28%), and coal (12.7%)—combined accounted for about 77.6%
of the U.S. primary energy production in 2017. Renewable energy (12.7%) and nuclear electric
power (9.6%) were the rest of the energy sources utilized in the US (American Geosciences
Institute, 2019).
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The energy industry is undoubtedly an engine of growth, as its products serve as inputs
into nearly every good and service imaginable. But how does the energy industry contribute to
economic growth and employment, apart from its vital products? The contribution of energy
sector towards economic activity arises in two ways. Firstly, energy - being an important
economic sector - creates jobs and value by extracting, transforming and spreading energy goods
and services throughout the economy (World Economic Forum, 2012). Secondly, the energy
sector’s impact creases through the rest of the economy. Energy is an input to nearly every
product and service in the economy and sustains the economic activity across each of its sectors.
To analyze the impacts of the energy sector on economy, this paper concentrates on the big four
macroeconomic variables – 1) GDP, 2) employment, 3) welfare, and 4) trade.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
As the most common measure of economic development and growth, this paper
prioritized GDP as the main parameter while discussing energy sector’s impact on the economy.
In 2009, the energy industry accounted for about 4% of GDP in the United States (World
Economic Forum, 2012). Figure 2 shows the energy sector’s share of business sector GDP along
with other industries.
Figure 2: Share of Business Sector GDP, Energy Compared to Other Industries – Data are 10
years averages of the most data available for 2000-2009 for the United States. (adapted from
World Economic Forum, 2012)
Total U.S. GDP - calculated as the total value of goods and services produced in the
United States including energy - amounted $18.6 trillion in 2016, which was 1.5% higher than
2015 levels. Whereas U.S. GDP has been increasing every year since 2010, on the other hand,
U.S. total energy expenditures - the amount spent for energy consumption in the United States has declined each year since 2011. The decrease in total U.S. energy expenditures in 2016 –
5.6% being the lowest since at least 1970 - was completely dedicated to lower energy prices,
since the overall energy consumption has remained virtually constant since 2013 (EIA, 2018).
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Faced with the double challenges of slow economic growth and the growing necessity to
decarbonize economies, the countries – the United States among them - are searching for
solutions to enhance their economic performance while minimizing further greenhouse gas
emissions. Given this context, renewable energy is appearing not only as a solution to satisfy the
increasing energy demand while sharply bringing carbon emissions to a lower level but also as a
potential engine for economic development and diversification. Based on IRENE 2006 findings,
doubling the share of renewables in the final global energy mix will increase global GDP in 2030
between 0.6% and 1.1% compared to business as usual. The increase is projected to range
between $706 billion and $1.3 trillion. (IRENA, 2016). Other financial studies estimated the
economic impacts of renewable energy deployment on GDP in the 2015 US market to be at
+0.6% while the projected impact on employment ranged between +0.5 to +1 million net (ICF
International, 2015; Synapse Energy Economics et al. 2015).
Employment
Jobs are instrumental to achieving economic and social development. Beyond their
essential significance to income production and individual welfare, they are the core of many
wider societal goals, such as increase of economy-wide productivity, poverty reduction, and
social coherence. Job creation leads to development benefits, such as skills acquisition, female
Empowerment, and improved stability in post conflict societies. Jobs that contribute to these
broader objectives are valuable not only for those who hold them but for society as a whole
(World Bank, 2012).
Globally, the energy sector has played the dual role of stimulating economy-wide
development and supporting a large number of jobs (World Economic Forum, 2012). The
Traditional Energy and Energy Efficiency sector in the United States contribute to the
employment in 2018 with approximately 6.5 million jobs. These sectors increased in 2017 by
about 1 percent, adding 65,000 net new jobs, roughly 3% of all those created in the country.
(USEER, 2018).
The continuously lowering oil and gas prices have had serious impacts on energy sector
employment globally, with the oil sector estimated to have lost 250,000 jobs by end of 2015.
(Wethe, 2015). However, the renewable energy sector growth over the past decade and its effect
on job creation have been a bright side for employment in the energy sector. Renewable energy
sector contributed more than 0.7 million jobs in the US, driven by solar, wind and bioenergy.
(IRENA, 2016). Haerer and Pratson (2015) investigated the employment trends in the US
electricity sector for the period 2008–2012. The authors point out that even though electricity
production that was generated from coal declined, the percentage of jobs lost were offset two
times higher by the increased employment rates from the expansion of renewable energyoperated industries, especially, natural gas, solar, and wind.
Employment patterns differ broadly across renewable energy technologies. Solar
photovoltaic (PV) systems generate the largest number of jobs, accounting for 2.5 million jobs
worldwide in 2014. This is due to growing global manufacturing of solar panels as lower costs
lead to expedited installations. (IRENA, 2016). Contribution of renewable energy sector in the
global employment is presented in Figure 3.
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Figure 3: Renewable energy employment in selected countries as of 2016 (Inside Climate News, 2017)
Employment in the renewable energy sector will continue to grow in line with national
and global targets for renewable energy and greenhouse gas mitigation. Employment in the
renewable energy sector in 2030 is expected to remain concentrated in the same technologies as
it is today (solar, bioenergy, large and small hydropower and wind) with minor shifts depending
on the case. (IRENA, 2016).
Welfare
Welfare is an important alternative to GDP as a way of considering the effects of
economy growth. While GDP provides a standard measure for comparing economic output
levels in different countries, it cannot be employed to infer estimates of broader economic
welfare. Many activities (i.e. leisure time) add to welfare but are excluded from GDP as others
add to GDP but not to welfare. For example, the depletion of non-renewable natural resources
could increase the GDP of a country by extracting more natural resources, but this reduces the
resources available for future generations (UNEP, 2013). Welfare measures can include
sustainability as an additional dimension, particularly in view of an economy’s ability to support
chosen development paths with a finite natural resource base over the long term (Daly et al.
1989). Trying to create better indicators of human welfare, the United Nations Development
Programme (UNDP) developed the Human Development Index (HDI) in 1990. HDI expands the
measurement of income to incorporate health and education.
The impact of renewable energy deployment on global welfare is positive, increasing by
2.7% (compared to 0.6% GDP improvement) if the share of renewables doubled. The largest
contributor to growth in this measure of welfare is the significant reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions by 2030. Environmental effects, currently not priced into most global economic
6
systems, hence play an overwhelming role in improving overall welfare. If the weighting across
the different dimensions were changed (e.g. to put a higher weighting on economic outcomes),
the estimated total welfare impacts would be lower overall but would remain higher than the
GDP impacts.
Trade
The United States is considered to be one of the largest energy importers in the world.
The US was generally self-sufficient in energy up to the early 1950s, and annual energy exports
were greater than energy imports. In the mid-1950s, the United States started to import larger
amounts of petroleum and crude oil products to fill the gap between petroleum consumption and
domestic production. The US also imported natural gas to help supply natural gas demand. Total
annual net energy imports (imports minus exports) generally increased in most years and reached
a record high in 2005 equal to about 30% of total U.S. energy consumption (EIA 2019).
Trade is one of the most influenced economic sectors since the transformation of the
global energy system will affect both fuel importers and exporters, and new markets will be
created. Switching to a larger share of renewables presents potentially favorable trade
implications for fossil fuel importers originating from the domino effects on their economies, as
well as enhanced energy security due to a greater confidence on indigenous sources. On the other
hand, fossil fuel exporters appear vulnerable to changes in energy trade patterns. Considering the
high contribution of fossil fuels to their GDP, their economy might have substantial impacts
from the dependency on the export revenues. However, this is not a renounced outcome as the
early renewable energy deployment in fossil fuel exporting countries could be referred as a
chance for economic diversification, thereby placing these countries in the new markets that will
be created. (IRENA, 2016).
Energy in Social and Political Landscape
Energy cannot be defined as a techno-economic matter alone since it bears implications
for all the society features – its culture, values, lifestyles, and power structures. Changes in
energy systems have been influencing societies over decades, as long-term social and cultural
processes in turn bring a direct impact on energy systems. Therefore, energy systems should be
analyzed from social and cultural perspectives, as well. (Ruotsalainen et al. 2017). The energy
sector brings knowledge, skills, relationships and infrastructure that can spur economic
diversification (World Economic Forum, 2012).
Given the fact that transitioning from one form of energy to another has led to social
change in areas such as production methods, quality of life, and labor productivity, one can
conclude that there is a relationship between this social change and the emergence of different
types of political systems (Lee and Yang, 2019). Whatever form they take; energy transitions
will be complex socio-technological transformations that require major changes for many
communities. Socio-political acceptance is one of the most significant constraining factors in
determining the success of such transition between energy forms. For instance, this is
particularly apparent in the case of wind energy, which has become a subject of contested
debates in several countries largely due to its visual impact on landscapes (Wustenhagen et al.
2007). The social perspective typically involves the study of social interactions, social organization, and
behavior patterns of groups. It also involves understanding the thoughts, feelings, and motivations of
individuals as members of society. The social perspective entails the assessment of the reaction, benefits,
7
and threats of renewable energy to society to enable a sustainable strategy in alignment with established
social constructs (Sheikh et al. 2016) Social acceptance is presented in three dimensions, namely
socio-political acceptance, community acceptance, and market acceptance. All three, sometimes
interdependent categories of social acceptance are displayed in Figure 4.
Figure 4: The triangle of social acceptance of energy form transition (adapted from
Wustenhagen et al. 2007)
Many nations – the US among them - have realized that reliance on fossil fuels has
significant negative implications with respect to energy supply and climate change. Renewable
energy technologies are beginning to play an important role in the social and economic
development of communities, regions, and nations. Politicians and governments are taking into
account the increasing economic benefits related to the renewable energy industry. This industry
increases employment and business opportunities, creates significant new federal and state tax
revenue, and helps revitalize struggling communities. Strong government policies and incentives
that favor the deployment of renewable energy are part of the political perspective. (UNIDO and
GGGI, 2015).
Environmental politics -another crucial factor in energy transition - have made a
difference in energy policymaking since the 1970s, shaping the long transition in new ways.
Energy-related pollution has been reduced; conservation and sustainability are more accepted
and promoted in legislation (e.g., see the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009);
and the largest retail business in the world, Walmart, has become a leader in sustainability-based
business practices. Industry firms and interest groups are taking on "green" personas on their
web sites. (Childs, 2011).
Energy is a harbinger for a new era in human history. We are now moving from an era of
constructing large-scale technologies to one of re-constructing complex, socio-technological
systems that link energy to a wide range of other systems such as water, transportation, food
production, and housing. This transition will challenge engineers, societies, policymakers, and
the social and policy sciences to develop new approaches to innovation that integrate both
technological and human dimensions together. Only by being attentive to the social dimensions
8
of our energy systems can we hope to stimulate genuine inventiveness in how we approach the
challenge of governing an energy transition (Miller at al. 2013).
Sustainable Development in the Energy Sector
The provision of adequate and reliable energy services at affordable costs, in a secure and
environmentally benign manner, and in conformity with social and economic development
needs, is an essential element of sustainable development (Vera and Langlois, 2007). Sustainable
Energy Development Strategies typically involve three major technological changes: 1) energy
savings on the demand side (Lund 1999; Blok 2005), 2) efficiency improvements in the energy
production (Lior, 2002), and 3) replacement of fossil fuels by various sources of renewable
energy (Afgan and Carvalho, 2004).
Due to negative environmental effects of conventional energy forms of production and
usage, and the finite yields of conventional sources of energy, the need for renewable energy
sources usage is becoming urgent. Herewith, during the last decades, a continuing shift from
conventional to non-conventional sources of energy has been taking place (Ntanos et al. 2018).
Given that the greenhouse gas emissions are considered to be the major cause of the climate
change (Bekun et al. 2019) - the current most concerned environmental problem – the
irreversible risks caused by climate change will increase in the future if CO2 emissions are not
controlled. The BP statistics showed that the total world fossil energy-related CO2 emission was
11,190 million tonnes in 1965, but increased to 33,891 million tonnes in 2018, with an average
annual growth rate of 3.75% (BP, 2019). Considering that climate change will bring potential
risks to human activities and life, the frequent occurrences of air pollution and extreme weather
conditions have seriously threatened human health and property safety (Lin and Zhu, 2019). The
transition to an energy system based on renewables is a unique opportunity which could be
translated into balancing the demand for sufficient energy to support economic growth and
development with the urgent need to sharply decrease carbon emission levels (IRENA, 2016).
However, renewable energy technologies have both advantages and disadvantages. Apart
from addressing environmental concerns, the advantages of renewables include the following:
decreasing operating costs (which, contrary to conventional fuels, are not affected by the state of
the global economy); reducing dependence on fossil fuels; energy security; reliability of electric
power systems; energy quality; benefits for tourism; better quality of life; conservation of natural
resources; assisting in local development; and creating new jobs (Longo et al. 2008; del Rio &
Burguillo, 2009; Economou, 2010; Kuik et al. 2019; Wang et al. 2019). Disadvantages include
changes in the aesthetics of the landscape and visual intrusion of facilities impacts on flora and
fauna, noise pollution, and high installation costs (Zoellner et al 2008; Wang et al. 2019; Xu et
al. 2019). One of our society's biggest shortcomings for a sustainable energy consumption is the
identification of those incentives, which determine consumers to change their consumption
towards green non-polluting energies (Pelau and Pop, 2018). These disadvantages are
unfortunate because energy is an important factor in economic growth and prosperity, satisfying
human needs and improving the quality of life (Michalena and Angeon, 2009). The ready
availability of energy is a prerequisite for the functioning of modern societies, and the demand
for energy resources affects the politics of countries in all stages of development (Chalvatzis and
Hooper, 2009).
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Regarding the future of energy sector, transitions in energy supply technologies may take
several decades, but Lovins et al. (2005) observed that transitions in end-use technologies are
more rapid, at about 12–15 years. In a study conducted in 2015, ICF attempted to predict the
results that deep decarbonization could create in the future U.S. economy. Using the
PATHWAYS based modeling assumptions, results indicate that there could be over a million
jobs gained by 2030 and, under some scenarios, up to 2 million jobs gained by 2050. In addition,
the modeling shows that household disposable incomes are also likely to increase across all
regions with the West South-Central region having the largest increase. Sectors likely to see the
greatest benefits include construction, manufacturing, and the utilities sectors. However, some
sectors, such as mining, oil and gas sectors, and gas stations face losses as the domestic demand
for fossil fuels decreases. While workers in these fossil sectors are likely to find jobs in the
decarbonized economy with additional training and upskilling, analyzing the effect of these
shifts are beyond the scope of this study (ICF, 2015).
CONCLUSION
Energy is the lifeblood of the global economy – a crucial input to nearly all of the goods
and services of the modern world. Stable, reasonably priced energy supplies are central to
maintaining and improving the living standards of billions of people. The world continues to
struggle with its critical natural and energy resource supplies as well as infrastructure challenges.
Economic and social factors compel large-scale changes in energy systems. An ongoing
transition in the United States is driven by environmental concerns, changing patterns of energy
end-use, and constraints on petroleum supply. By developing and implementing renewable
energy technologies and manufacturing capabilities, we would build a sustainable energy
infrastructure to carry us well into the future.
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