Population &
Development

人口と開発
The Context
All development is for the people.
 People are the ultimate and the only beneficiaries.
 Development is directed towards meeting the needs the
people.
 Development also contributes to capacity building of
individuals [能力形成] as well as group of individuals –
family, society, etc.

2
The Context
Development needs of the people are not the same.
 They vary by basic characteristics of population

 Size, Age, Sex
The population stock determines the development
needs.
 Development modifies the population stock through
changes in mortality, fertility and other
determinants.

3
TERMS / Definitions


POPULATION [母集団] refers to a group of organisms
of the same kind or specie living in the same place
at the same time.
A population [人口] may increase or decrease due to
birth, death, immigration [移民] and migration [移住].
TERMS / Definitions


The study of population characteristics is called
demography [人口統計学]
Demographic statistics include:
 Crude Birth Rate [粗出生率]: the number of live births
per 1,000 people in the population
 Crude Death Rate [粗死亡率]: the number of deaths
per 1,000 people in the population
TERMS / Definitions

Overpopulation [人口過剰] is defined as
the lack of necessary resources to meet the
needs of the population of a defined area
 Includes food, water, and shelter
The World Today:
More Than Seven Billion People
 More than 50% urban (in or near cities)
 90% live north of the equator
 90% live on 20% of the earth’s land
 80% live at less than 500 m elevation
7
 2/3 live within 500 km of an ocean
Global Population:
2/ of the World in 4 Major
3
Clusters

East Asia
 More than 1.5 billion people
 More than 20% of humanity

 About ½ billion people
 About 20% of humanity in China
 8% of humanity
 About 50% rural

South Asia
 More than 1.5 billion people
 About 20% of humanity
 Nearly 20% of humanity in India
 About 60% rural
Southeast Asia
 More than 2/3 rural

Europe
 About ¾ billion people
 11% of humanity
 About ¾ urban
Global Population
East Asia
• Eastern China, Japan,
Korean peninsula &
Taiwan
• ¼ World’s Population
• 5/6 live in PRC
• China: ½ of population
(rural)
• Japan & Korea
•
40% live in 3 major
cities (Tokyo, Osaka, &
Seoul)
•
¾ Urban and work in
industry/service jobs
South Asia
• India, Pakistan, Bangladesh &
Sri Lanka
• ¼ World Population
• ¾ live in India
• 68% in rural areas
• 47% work in Agriculture
Europe
• 3rd Largest (including
European portion of
Russia)
• Includes 37+ countries
• 1/9 of world population
• ¾ live in cities
• > 10% farmers
• Concentrated near major
rivers and coal fields of
Belgium and Germany
Southeast Asia
• Myanmar, Thailand, Laos,
Vietnam, Cambodia,
Malaysia, Indonesia,
Philippines, & Papua
New Guinea
• Largest = Java = 100
million
• Most work as farmers in
rural areas
Emerging Population
Concentrations
Eastern North
America
NE U.S. & SE Canada
 Boston  D.C  Chicago
 2% of the world’s
population
 Most urbanized
concentration
>2% farmers


West Africa
West Africa, including south
facing coast & Nigeria
 2% of the world’s
population
 Nigeria = most populous
African nation, ½ of this
concentration
 Most work in agriculture

Other Clusters
 Eastern North America
 Egypt
 West & East Africa
 Urban South America &
the Caribbean
 US West Coast
 Highland Mexico
Population Capacity

Space
Technology
Consumption
Resources
How many people can be
sustained by the Earth?
 Based on human choices and
natural constraints.
 Maximum density.
 Quantity of arable land.
 Agricultural technology.
 Harvesting the ocean.
 Human facilities.
 Availability of resources
(energy, construction
materials, etc.).
TERMS / Definitions

Carrying capacity [人口容量]: the ability of the land
to sustain a certain number of organisms
 Overpopulation occurs when the population exceeds
the carrying capacity
Population Capacity

Arable land
X
Agricultural
technology
/
Consumption
per capita
Ravenstein in 1891
 Concept of carrying capacity.
 Focused on the earth’s cultivable
areas, and their potential
productivity given increases in yields
over time:
 Fertile: 200 people / km2.
 Steppe: 10 people / km2.
 Desert: 1 person / km2.
 Figure of 7 billion people as the
number Earth could sustain without
lowering living standards.
 Reached this number in 2011.
TERMS / Definitions
Under population [人口不足]:
 a situation when there are not enough people to
fully develop the resources in an area or country

 Likely to occur in:
 large areas which are not fully exploited e.g.
Canada
 Developed countries such as Japan & Sweden where
BR and population growth rates are falling
 Low replacement rate
 Countries where the proportion
of people over 60 are increasing
TERMS / Definitions
The “5 too (s)” that human populations avoid
 too hot, too cold, too wet, too dry, and too hilly
 Because of this, humans occupy a small part of the
planet
 Today, the largest populations are found in what are
called habitable lands.
 Habitable lands are lands that are suitable for human
living.
 Habitable land is called ecumene

エクメーネ（ドイツ語：Ökumene）とは、人間が居住している地域を指す地理学の用
語である。
TERMS / Definitions
 Warmer comfortable climates attract people.
 Notice that most people live in a moderate climate region.
TERMS / Definitions

Density [密度] is a measure of “how many
per.”
 Different density measures give us
different insights, such as:
Level of development
 Type of economy
 indications about population growth, health,
status of people, overall economy, etc.

TERMS / Definitions

Population Density (Arithmetic density) [人口密度]

Physiological Density [生理的密度]

Agricultural Density [農業人口密度]
TERMS / Definitions

Population Density [人口密度]:
divides the population by land
area - (Arithmetic density)
Population Density
[人口密度]
 Population Density = (total population) / (total land area)
 JP population = 126.8 million (2018)
 JP land area = 377,973 km²
 Population density = (126,800,000)/(377,973 ) = 335.5 people/km²
Tells us “where,” but not “why”
Population Density [人口密度]:
 Geographers rely on the arithmetic density to compare conditions in
different countries because the two pieces of information–total population and
total land area–are easy to obtain. The highest arithmetic densities are found in
Asia, Europe, and Central America.
 The lowest are in North and South America and South Pacific
A street in Hong Kong, one of the most
densely-populated places in the world.
A street in Ulan Bator, Mongolia - the least
densely-populated country in the world.
TERMS / Definitions

Physiological Density [生理的密度]: divides the total
population by the land used by humans.
 Reveals the relationship between size of a population and the
availability of resources in a region.
Physiological Density
[生理的密度]
 Physiological Density = (total population) / (total cultivable land)
 JP population = 126.8 million (2018)
 JP arable land = 44,960 km²
 Physiological density=(126,800,000)/(44,960)= 2820.3 people/km²
Physiological Density [生理的密度]
 The higher the physiological density, the greater the pressure on the land to
produce sufficient food (crops grown on a hectare of land in Egypt feed far
more people than in the USA or Canada - much lower physiological densities).
 The highest physiological densities are found in Asia, sub-Saharan Africa,
and South America. The lowest are in North America, Europe, and South
Pacific.
Physiologic Population
Density
Luxor, Egypt
Egypt’s arable lands are along
the Nile River Valley.
Moving away from the river a
few blocks, the land becomes
sandy and wind-sculpted.
95% of Egyptians live near the
Nile river
TERMS / Definitions

Agricultural Density [農業人口密度]:
the number of farmers divided by the
amount of arable land
Agricultural Density
[農業人口密度]
 Agricultural Density = (total population) / (total land area)
 JP population = 1.92 million (2016)
 JP arable land = 44,960 km²
 Agricultural density =(126,800,000)/(44,960 )= 42.72 farmer/km²
Agricultural Density [農業人口密度]
 The highest agricultural densities are found in Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The
lowest are in North America, Europe, and South Pacific.
 Note: The Netherlands has a much higher physiological density than does India
but a much lower agricultural density.
Density: Comparison Table
Arithmetic
Physiologic
Density
Density
(persons/km²) (persons/km²)
Agricultural
Density
(farmers/km²)
Farmers
(%)
Arable
land (%)
Canada
3
65
1
2%
5%
USA
32
175
2
2%
18%
Egypt
80
2,296
251
31%
3%
The Netherlands 400
1,748
23
3%
22%
Bangladesh
1,838
1,158
63 %
67 %
1,050
(data on arable land from the CIA “World Factbook”: https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/index.html)
Bangladesh (DATA fro m
TERMS / Definitions



Population Density [人口密度]:
divides the population by land
area - (Arithmetic density)
Physiological Density [生理的
密度]: divides the total
population by the land used
by humans
Agricultural Density [農業人口
密度]: the number of farmers
divided by the amount of
arable land
Population Density
[人口密度]
Physiological Density
[生理的密度]
Agricultural Density
[農業人口密度]
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:
Crude Birth rate -CBR 粗出生率
 Crude Death rate –CDR 粗死亡率
 Rate of natural increase –NI 自然増加率
 Total Fertility rate 合計特殊出生率
 Infant mortality rate 乳児死亡率
 Life expectancy at birth 平均寿命
 Doubling time 倍加時間
 Dependency ratio 依存比率

TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:


Crude Birth rate -CBR 粗出生率
Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is the annual number
of live births per 1000 people in a population.
Crude Birth rate -CBR 粗出生率
The crude birth rate is the total number of live births in a year for every 1,000
people alive in the society. The highest crude birth rates are found in subSaharan Africa and the Middle East, whereas the lowest are in Europe.
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:

Crude Death rate –CDR 粗死亡率: Total # of
deaths in a year for every 1,000 people alive
The global pattern of crude death rates varies from those for the other demographic
variables. First, although Europe has the lowest natural increase, crude birth, and infant
mortality rates, it has relatively high crude death rates. Second, the variance between the
highest and lowest crude death rates is much lower than was the case for the crude birth
rates. The concept of the demographic transition helps to explain the distinctive
distribution of crude death rates.
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:

Rate of natural increase –NI 自然増加率: % by which
a population grows per year. Compute by subtracting CDR
from CBR (in percentage).


NI = CBR – CDR (%)
CBR is 20, CDR is 5 (per thousand), the NIR is 15 per 1,000,
or 1.5%
NATURAL INCREASE RATE; The world average is currently about 1.16 %.
The countries with the highest NIRs are concentrated in Africa and Southwest
Asia.

Zero Population Growth (ZPG): If the CDR is
the same as the CBR. True of most developed
regions (North America, Japan, Europe, etc.).
Negative NIR: If the CDR is higher than the CBR
 Demographic equation: the global difference
between births and deaths


NI = CBR – CDR (%)
Population Rates: Two Examples
 Mexico 2011 (July est., CIA World Factbook)
Population: 113,724,226
 Births: 2,175,544
 Deaths: 552,699

Rate of natural increase – NI
[自然増加率]
CBR = 2,175,544/ 113,724,226 = 19.13/1,000
 CDR = 552,699/ 113,724,226 = 4.86/1,000
 NI = 19.13 – 4.86 = 14.27/1,000 = 1.43%

 US 2011 (July est., CIA World Factbook)
Population: 313,232,044
 Births: 4,331,999
 Deaths: 2,624,885

 CBR = 4,331,999/ 313,232,044 = 13.83/1,000
 CDR = 2,624,885/ 313,232,044
= 8.38/1,000
 NI = 13.83 – 8.38 = 5.45/1,000 = 0.55%
Note that
Mexico’s
growth rate is
almost 3 times
the US rate
Population Change
Beginning Population
Plus Births
Plus In-Migrants
Minus Deaths
Minus Out-Migrants
Ending Population
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:

Total Fertility rate 合計特殊出生率: TFR is average
number of children a woman will have during her
‘childbearing years’ (approx. ages 15-49)
合計特殊出生率:
TFR exceeds six in some African
nations.
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:

Infant mortality rate 乳児死亡率: Annual number of
infant deaths (children under 1 year of age), compared
with total live births, expressed as a number of deaths per
1,000.
• Infant mortality rate is higher in developing countries than in developed
countries.
• The US infant mortality rate is higher than that of other developed countries,
and geographic and racial disparities persist.
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:

Life expectancy at birth 平均寿命:
Average length of someone’s life.
 Calculation of LE affected by infant, child, and maternal
mortality rates

Life Expectancy Index (LEI) = (LE — 20) / (85 — 20)
Varies greatly from place to place and within populations
 Factors: violence, disease, poor healthcare, smoking, etc

“Lowest” Life expectancy at birth (WHO, 2016)
Both sexes
rank
Both sexes life
expectancy
Mali
171
58.2
Equatorial Guinea
171
58.2
Mozambique
173
57.6
South Sudan
174
57.3
Cameroon
174
57.3
Somalia
176
55.0
Nigeria
177
54.5
Lesotho
178
53.7
Cote d'Ivoire
179
53.3
Chad
180
53.1
Central African Republic
181
52.5
Angola
Sierra Leone
182
183
52.4
50.1
Country
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:

Doubling time [倍加時間]: The amount of time it takes the
world to double its population.
Formula = 70 / Population Growth Rate (%)
 E.g. ( 70 / 2.0% = 35 years )


In the 1960’s & 70’s the doubling time was about 35 years.
By 2088, it will once again have
taken nearly 100 years for the
population to double to a
predicted 11 billion.
it took nearly 7 centuries
for the population to
double from 0.25 billion
(in the early 9th century)
to 0.5 billion in the middle
of the 16th century.
The fastest doubling of the world
population happened between 1950
and 1987: a doubling from 2.5 to 5
billion people in just 37 years
It wasn't until 1803 that the world reached its first
billion; it then took another 124 years to reach two
billion. By the third billion, this period had reduced to
33 years, reduced further to 15 years to reach four.
It took only 12 years to
increase by one billion for
the 5th, 6th and 7th
Doubling time [倍加時間]

Major regional differences in rates of growth. NIR exceeds
3% in many parts of Africa, while some of Western Europe
experiences negative population growth.
TERMS / Definitions
Basic Population Measures:
Dependency ratio [依存比率]: The ratio between the
number of dependants (anyone above or below the working
age) and the number of people in the potential labor force.
 Dependants:
 young dependents (YD): Anyone younger than 15
 old dependants (OD): Anyone 65 and older

Calculating Dependency Example

Dependency ratio =
YD + OD
x 100
People of working age
[依存比率]:
YD= 500
OD= 250
People of working age = 600

Dependency ratio =
500 + 250
600
x 100
Dependency Ratio = 125
[which means that for every 100 workers, there are 125 not
working]
45 years from the start of the sharp fertility decline in China, we have reached a
turning point.
The total dependency ratio will increase after decreasing steadily for 50 years.
China’s old age dependency ratio is growing rapidly as people live longer and there
are less workers are available to support their expenses.
Populations that have low
dependency ratios can
grow rapidly if there are
sufficient investments in
education, job
opportunities, and other
areas.
Importance of Dependency Ratio
[依存比率]
It’s important because it shows the ratio of economically
inactive compared to active.
 Economically active will pay much more income tax
 Economically inactive (dependents) are bigger recipients of
government spending (education, pensions and health care)

Solutions for Higher Dependency
Ratios
Raising retirement age in line with longer life
expectancies
 Encouraging immigration of people in early 20s
and 30s Reduced government funded pensions and
encouraging private pensions

Costs and Benefits of Ageing
and Youthful Populations
Ageing Populations
Causes
Costs
Life expectancy has increased, causing increased
proportions of elderly
1.
2.
3.
4.
Benefits
1.
2.
Heavy Burden on state finances through
pensions and welfare payments.
Large demands on health systems
Reduced workforce
Population decline- if there’s also declined
birth rates
Workforce can work longer
Elderly can help look after grand-children
which allows parents to work full-time.
Youthful Populations
Causes
Many LEDCs are have high birth rates.
Costs
1.
2.
3.
4.
Benefits
1.
2.
High demand for education.
Need for many women to stay at home to
care for children
High rates of unemployment
Increased poverty- more people are born into
families, which are already poor.
Large potential workforce often leading to
cheap labor, which can attract new investment.
Less money is spent on healthcare.
TERMS / Definitions
Population Pyramids [人口ピラミッド]
Dependency ratio [依存比率]: The ratio between the
number of dependants (anyone above or below the working
age) and the number of people in the potential labor force.
 Dependants:
 young dependents (YD): Anyone younger than 15
 old dependants (OD): Anyone 65 and older

TERMS / Definitions
Population Pyramids [人口ピラミッド]
Age group
Elderly
dependents
The apex
Working
population
Young
dependents
Percentage / Number of people
The base
Population Cohort


A group of people that all have something in
common and are usually grouped together for
statistical purposes.
In population pyramids, each cohort is split between
men and women.
What is a population pyramid?
Population pyramids are used to show information about the
age and gender of people in a specific country.
 The total population divided into five-year age groups
 the percentage of people in each of those age groups
 the percentage of males and females in each age group

 The statistics on a
population pyramid give
governments and others
the tools they need to
make informed decisions
and plans for the future.
Types of population pyramid
 There main types of pyramids
 Rapid growth –Expansive
 Slow/stable growth –Stationary
 Negative growth - Constrictive
Expansive
Stable/Stationary
There shape of pyramids
is controlled by: Birth;
Death & Migrations
Constrictive
Expansive Pyramid
(Broad-based Pyramid)
Nigeria, 2017
Broad Base: high birth rates
Narrow Top: small elderly pop high death rate (short life
expectancy)
Proportion: Large proportion of
young - high young dependency
Ratio
Sex Ratio: Balance pyramid Balance sex ratio
Expansive Pyramid
(Broad-based Pyramid)
The large base shows a high birth rate, which is probably due to
factors like a developing economy, poverty, and low levels of
female education.
 The tapering top of the graph indicates a high death rate, meaning
that the life expectancy in such a country is less.
 Factors like poor living conditions and the lack of proper medical
facilities may be responsible for the high mortality among the
elderly.
 Such countries have a higher population of children as compared to
people of working age or older people.
 This results in a strain on the working-age population to support the
large younger population, making them work in stressful conditions.
 Examples: Such a population pyramid is a characteristic of newly
developing countries such as Afghanistan, Bangladesh, Kenya, and
some countries of Latin America.

Stationary Pyramid
(Rectangular-shape Pyramid)
USA, 2015
 Convex sides
 Declining birth rate
 Low death rate
 Long life expectancy
 An increasing proportion of the population is in the 65+ age
group
Stationary Pyramid
(Rectangular-shape Pyramid)
This type of population distribution shows a rectangular, with almost
the same number of people in all age groups.
 There is a slight taper at the top, which is perfectly natural, due to
more deaths occurring among the elderly.
 Such countries have a high life expectancy, where more people live
to a ripe old age, due to better living conditions, medical facilities,
and geriatric care.

They also have a stable birth rate due to education and the
empowerment of women.
 Such a pyramid shows a stable increase in the country's population
with time.


Examples: Highly-developed countries such as USA, Sweden, and
Netherlands, which have well-established economies, come under
this type.
Constrictive Pyramid
(Beehive-based Pyramid)
Japan, 2017
Contractive Convex sides
 Very low birth rate
 Low death rate
 Longer life expectancy
 Decreasing population
 Significant proportion of working
population, 15-64 yr old - large
group of economically active pop
 Dependency ratio getting higher

Constrictive Pyramid
(Beehive-shape Pyramid)
There is high life expectancy and good living conditions in such a
country, leading to a higher number of older people.
 Despite this, there is a lesser number of births taking place, which is
outnumbered by the number of deaths. This indicates a graying as
well as decreasing population.
 There is a higher number of older people than the youth in the
country, which places a burden upon the working-age population to
support the large number of elderly dependents.
 The decrease in the number of births indicates that people are
choosing to have lesser children, and may also be due to increased
emigration.


Examples: Developed European countries like Italy and Germany,
along with countries like Japan and Australia come under this
category.
Importance of Population Pyramids
Policy Planning
~ future housing estates
~ future schools
~ future jobs
 Comparison with other countries
~ developed (US) vs developing (India)

Importance of Population Pyramids

Trends in the birth rate, death rate, infant mortality rate
and life expectancy - these trends can help a country to plan
its future services, e.g. more homes for the elderly if there
is an ageing population or fewer schools if there is a
declining birth rate.
The effects of people migrating into or out of a region or
country.
 The proportion of the population who are economically active
and the proportion who are dependent upon them
(dependency ratio).

Importance of Population Pyramids
e.g. Analysis of Italy’s Population Pyramid
4
3
5
2
1
Analysis of Italy’s
Population Pyramid
1. Decline in Birth Rate
 2. Baby Boom
 3. Fewer men due to World War I and II
 4. More women due to: a. longer life expectancy
and b. World Wars (I and II)
 5. More 75-79 yrs than 0-4 yrs. Signs of a future
worker shortage and an overall declining
population.

Aging population…
…declining birth rate
Theories of Population
The Demographic Transition Model
[人口転換]
The Malthusian population model
[マルサス人口理論]
3/16/2025
The Demographic Transition Model
[人口転換]
Spain
Taiwan
Why does population
increase at different
rates in different
places?
Why does population increase at
different rates in different places?
Conceived by Frank Notestein 1945.
 Model of population change based upon effects of economic
development.
 Based on the experience of the Western world,
 it was used for decades as a model to predict what should/would
happen to developing countries eventually (from a pre-Industrial
to an industrialized economic system).
 All countries pass through four or five stages to a state of
maturity.

Stage 1:
Low
growth
Stage 2:
High
Growth
Stage 3:
Moderate
Growth
Stage 4:
Low
Growth
Demographic Transition Model
Explains changes in the natural increase rate as a function of
economic development.
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
How about Japan?
The Demographic Transition Model
[人口転換]
Why does population increase/decrease
at different rates in different places?
The demographic transition model [人口転換] explains how
countries experience different stages of population growth.
 Fertility (合計特殊出生率), mortality (life expectancy-平均寿命) and
migration (移住) are principal determinants of population growth
 Model of population change based upon effects of economic
development.
 All countries pass through four stages to a state of maturity.

Stage 1:
Low
growth
Stage 2:
High
Growth
Stage 3:
Moderate
Growth
Stage 4:
Low
Growth
Demographic Transition Model
Population
Demographic
transition model
“fertility and mortality vary over time: Demographic
Transition Model — reasons for differences in fertility and
mortality in the stages of the model; differences between
economically more developed countries (EMDCs) and
economically less developed countries (ELDCs) ”
Population
Demographic transition model
The demographic transition model shows how a population will change
over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and
post-industrial one.
Population
Demographic transition model
The demographic transition model shows how a population will change
over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and
post-industrial one.
Stage 1.
Birth and death
rates are both high,
leading to a low but
stable population.
High fluctuating
UK pre
1760/Industrial
Revolution.
Ethiopia/Bangladesh/
Rainforest tribes
presently.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 = Pre-Industrial Stage
• Population growth is stable
•
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
High death rate
• Many diseases
• Poor medical care
• Poor sanitation
• Limited food supply
•
High birth rate
• People have many children because most will die before adulthood
• Need large families to work family farms
• No family planning (no birth control)
• Religious & social norm
• All countries were Stage 1 prior to the Industrial Revolution
• Typical of Britain in the 18th century and the Least Economically
Developed Countries (LEDC's) today.
Stage 4
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1 = Pre-Industrial Stage
Population
Demographic transition model
The demographic transition model shows how a population will change
over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and
post-industrial one.
Stage 2.
Birth remain high but
now death rates start
to fall dramatically,
leading to a rising
population.
Early expanding
UK pre 1760-1880.
Peru/Sri Lanka/Kenya
presently.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2 = Transitional Stage
• Population growth increases
at a rapid pace
•
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Declining death rate
• Better jobs
• Improvements in medical care
• Improvements in sanitation
• Increased food production
•
High birth rate
• People are still accustomed to producing more children
• Have more food & resources to support larger families
• Countries that are transitioning to become industrial societies
• Typical of Britain in 19th century; Bangladesh; Nigeria now.
Stage 4
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2 = Transitional Stage
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 2 = Transitional Stage
Population
Demographic transition model
The demographic transition model shows how a population will change
over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and
post-industrial one.
Stage 3.
Birth start to fall now
and death rates
continue to fall, causing
the population to
continue to rise but
less quickly now as the
gap between births and
deaths is closing.
Late expanding
UK 1880-1940
China/Cuba/Australia
presently.
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3 = Industrial Stage
• Population growth continues
•
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Low death rate
• Continued improvements in nutrition,
medicine, and sanitation due to higher
standard of living
•
Decreasing birth rate
• People stop having as many children
because children have a better chance of surviving to adulthood
• Preference for smaller families in order to have a higher standard of living
• Increased status & opportunities for women (education + jobs)
• Increased women empowerment
• Factories, commercial farms, some service industries
• Britain in late 19th, Botswana, Colombia, India, Jamaica, Kenya,
Mexico, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates
Stage 4
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3 = Industrial Stage
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 3 = Industrial Stage
Population
Demographic transition model
The demographic transition model shows how a population will change
over time as it changes from an agrarian society to an industrial, and
post-industrial one.
Stage 4.
Birth and death rates
are now both low,
causing the population
to be more stable but
high.
Low fluctuating
UK post 1940
Japan/Canada/USA
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 1
Stage 2
Stage 3
Stage 4
Stage 4 = Post-Industrial Stage
• Stable population size,
near zero-growth
•
Low death rate
• High standard of living
• Equal access to good healthcare
•
Low birth rate
• Replacement-level fertility rate
• About 2 children per woman
• Strong economies, high levels of education, high numbers of working
women
• Argentina, Australia, Canada, China, Brazil, most of Europe, Singapore,
South Korea, and the United States
Demographic Transition Model
Stage 4 = Post-Industrial Stage
Demographic Transition Model
Population
Demographic transition model
Each stage creates
population pyramids
unique to that stage.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Birth rates are high because:
 High infant mortality rate so parents
more in hope that several will survive.
produce
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Birth rates are high because:
 High infant mortality rate so parents produce
more in hope that several will survive.
 Many children needed to work in agriculture
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Birth rates are high because:
 High infant mortality rate so parents produce
more in hope that several will survive.
 Many children needed to work in agriculture
 Children expected to support parents in later
life in the absence of pensions.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Birth rates are high because:
 High infant mortality rate so parents produce
more in hope that several will survive.
 Many children needed to work in agriculture
 Children expected to support parents in later
life in the absence of pensions.
 Children regarded as a sign of virility and
status in some societies.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Death rates are high because:
 Lack of access to medical science/supplies - few
doctors, hospitals, drugs.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Death rates are high because:
 Lack of access to medical science/supplies - few
doctors, hospitals, drugs.
 Poor hygiene - no piped, clean water systems,
no proper, safe sewage disposal systems.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Death rates are high because:
 Lack of access to medical science/supplies - few
doctors, hospitals, drugs.
 Poor hygiene - no piped, clean water systems,
no proper, safe sewage disposal systems.
 Famine, uncertain food supplies, poor diets.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Death rates are high because:
 Lack of access to medical science/supplies - few
doctors, hospitals, drugs.
 Poor hygiene - no piped, clean water systems,
no proper, safe sewage disposal systems.
 Famine, uncertain food supplies, poor diets.
 Disease spread by lack of access to clean
water/plague (bubonic, cholera, bilharzias).
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 1.
Natural increase (population growth) is low
because although there is a high of birth rate the
similarly high number of deaths effectively cancels
them out, leaving a low but stable population.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 2.
Birth rates remain high because of all
the same reasons as for Stage 1.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 2.
Death rates begin to fall because:
 Improved medical care antibiotics, vaccinations, hospitals,
doctors, drugs, scientific innovations
which combined to reduce infant
mortality rates.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 2.
Death rates begin to fall because:
 Improved medical care antibiotics, vaccinations, hospitals,
doctors, drugs, scientific innovations
which combined to reduce infant
mortality rates.
 Improved sanitation and water
supply systems reduces disease.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 2.
Death rates begin to fall because:
 Improved medical care antibiotics, vaccinations, hospitals,
doctors, drugs, scientific innovations
which combined to reduce infant
mortality rates.
 Improved sanitation and water
supply systems reduces disease.
 Improvements in agricultural
efficiency increased quality and
quantity of food production,
reducing shortages.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 2.
Death rates begin to fall because:
 Improved medical care antibiotics, vaccinations, hospitals,
doctors, drugs, scientific innovations
which combined to reduce infant
mortality rates.
 Improved sanitation and water
supply systems reduces disease.
 Improvements in agricultural
efficiency increased quality and
quantity of food production,
reducing shortages.
 Improved communications to
transport food, doctors, medicines
etc.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 2.
Natural increase (population growth)
is high because there is now a large
gap between births and deaths,
increasing the population rapidly.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Lower infant mortality
rate means less pressure to
have many children.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Lower infant mortality
rate means less pressure to
have many children.
 Widespread availability and
knowledge of family planning
- Government incentives (antinatalist policies –China).
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Lower infant mortality
rate means less pressure to
have many children.
 Widespread availability and
knowledge of family planning
- Government incentives (antinatalist policies –China).
 Change from agrarian to an
industrial society and
mechanisation leads to a
reduction in workforce
requirements.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Lower infant mortality
rate means less pressure to
have many children.
 Widespread availability and
knowledge of family planning
- contraceptives, abortion,
sterilisation and government
incentives (anti-natalist policies
–China).
 Change from agrarian to an
industrial society and
mechanisation leads to a
reduction in workforce
requirements.
 Welfare systems i.e.
pensions meant children no
longer needed to care for
parents in old age.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Emancipation of women
and improved educational
opportunities has increased
status of women, enabling
them to pursue careers and so
delay child-bearing.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Emancipation of women
and improved educational
opportunities has increased
status of women, enabling
them to pursue careers and so
delay child-bearing.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Birth rates begin to fall
because:
 Emancipation of women
and improved educational
opportunities has increased
status of women, enabling
them to pursue careers and so
delay child-bearing.
Increased desire to pursue
material lifestyles (cars,
holidays, bigger homes) and
less for large families.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3.
Natural increase (population growth)
remains high due to the gap between
births and deaths but as this stage
progresses the increase gets less as
births and deaths match up again.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3/4.
Death rates continue to fall
because of ongoing
developments in health and
hygiene already mentioned.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3/4.
Death rates remain low because:
 Continued advances in paediatric care further reduce
infant mortality rates.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3/4.
Death rates remain low because:
 Continued advances in paediatric care further reduce
infant mortality rates.
 Improved diets
 Continued advances in geriatric care increase
life expectancy
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3/4.
Death rates remain low because:
 Continued advances in paediatric care further reduce
infant mortality rates.
 Improved diets
 Continued advances in geriatric care increase
life expectancy
 Increase in
preventative health care
 Enhanced public services for elderly specialised care workers, day-centres, residential
homes, sheltered housing, meals-on-wheels.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 3/4.
Death rates remain low because:
 Continued advances in paediatric care further reduce
infant mortality rates.
 Improved diets
 Continued advances in geriatric care increase
life expectancy
 Increase in
preventative health care
 Enhanced public services for elderly specialised care workers, day-centres, residential
homes, sheltered housing, meals-on-wheels.
 Universal state pension scheme and
increasing uptake of private pensions have
increased affluence of elderly and so increased
life expectancy.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 4.
Birth rates continue to fall for all the same reasons as
Stage 3.
Population
Demographic transition model
Stage 4.
Natural increase (population growth) is again low
as births and deaths virtually cancel each other out,
but now the population is high..
Population
Demographic transition model
Sri
Lanka
Ethiopia
Each stage creates
population pyramids
unique to that stage.
China
Japan
Demographic Transition Model –
Limitations
It does not include the influences of migration
 It assumes that all countries will go through the same
pattern
 There is no time scale
 Reasons for birth rates and death rates are very
different in different countries
 And finally, is there a stage 5?

Theories of Population
The Demographic Transition Model
[人口転換]
The Malthusian population model
[マルサス人口理論]
The Malthusian population model
[マルサス人口理論]
Lived from 1776- 1834
 He wrote “ An essay on the principle of population” in
1798
 It was quite revolutionary and controversial in his time
 His essay if often times described as pessimistic and
barbaric, as it predicted nothing short of a catastrophe for
the human race.

3/16/2025
3/16/2025
The Malthusian population model
[マルサス人口理論]
3/16/2025
The Malthusian population model
[マルサス人口理論]
3/16/2025
The Malthusian population model
[マルサス人口理論]
3/16/2025
3/16/2025
3/16/2025
3/16/2025
6 Factors that Affect NIR Discussion:
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.

Economic Development:
Education
Gender Empowerment
Healthcare
Cultural Traditions
Public Policy
Explain how each of the aforementioned factors might affect the
Natural Increase Rate of a country. Be specific.
6 Factors That Affect NIR?
Economic Development: affects available healthcare,
employment, nutrition, etc. Generally, increases in economic
development lead to decreases in fertility and growth rate
 Education: affects fertility, use of contraception (birth control),
etc. Better education leads to lower fertility rates and lower rates
of natural increase
 Gender Empowerment: opportunities available to women. When
women have more economic and political access, power, and
education, fertility drops.

6 Factors That Affect NIR?
Healthcare: has contradictory effects. Improved healthcare in
less-developed countries has decreased infant mortality and
increased life expectancy, thus contributing to population growth
 Cultural Traditions: can encourage high fertility rates by limiting
female employment outside the home and discouraging use of
contraception
 Public Policy: governmental programs, like China’s ‘One Child
Policy’ of 1979, provides economic incentives for people having
few children and penalties for those who have more than one.

Most developed countries have reached
stage four and have low birth and death
rates, while developing countries continue
to make their way through the stages.
Lower fertility rates —
lower child mortality,
higher incomes, the
education of women
Countries with high child
mortality rates tend to have
faster growing populations,
while countries with low child
mortality rates experience
lower population growth rates.
Transition
model

Population Geography
Population Theories
Demographic Transition Model
Population Theories
BUT REMEMBER…
The agricultural revolution allowed for cities and faster
population growth rates (10,000-12,000 years ago).
•
The Industrial Revolution allowed for even faster growth
rates (starting in the 1700s).
•
•
Earth has experienced a
POPULATION EXPLOSION in the last 2-3 centuries.
Thomas Malthus
Economist and geographer
 Essay on the Principle of Population
(1798)

 Claims based on:
 1.) People need food to survive
 2.) People have a natural desire to reproduce
 Food production increases arithmetically
(linear growth) while population grows
geometrically (exponential growth).
Thomas Malthus

Argued that human population growth would eventually
outpace people’s ability to produce food.
 This little problem would lead to war, starvation, and disease, or
“negative checks” on the population.
 Advocated for “positive checks” such as birth control and
celibacy.
HAS
THIS
HAPPENED?
Arguments against Malthusian
perspective

Malthus did not fully account for the ability to
people to increase food production dramatically
with new agricultural technologies.
 Genetic engineering
 Improved fertilization techniques
 Modern farm equipment
Arguments against Malthusian
perspective (continued)

Did not foresee population growth would slow down
over time.
 Contraception
 Changing role of women
 Individual choice of not having children

Did not recognize famine is usually not related to
lack of food, but to the unequal distribution of food.
Neo-Malthusians
Apply some ideas in the
Malthusian theory.
 Human population growth must
reach a “sustainable” level
within carrying capacity.
 Regional rather than global.

Paul Ehrlich

The Population Bomb (1968)
 Neo- Malthusian ecologist
 Made the argument about the
ability of the earth to
sustainably provide resources
for an exponentially growing
population.
 Mass starvations
 Societal uprisings
 Raised the general awareness
of population and
environmental issues and
influenced public policy.
The battle to feed all of
humanity is over. In the 1970s
hundreds of millions of people
will starve to death in spite of
any crash programs embarked
upon now. At this late date
nothing can prevent a
substantial increase in the world
death rate...
Other theories…

Karl Marx
 Population growth rates are not the problem but the
unequal distribution of resources and wages would
eventually lead to class warfare.

Ester Boserup
 Believed that the overpopulation problem could be
solved by increasing the number of subsistence farmers.
Population Pyramids
AGE-SEX STRUCTURES
Population Cohort


A group of people that all have something in
common and are usually grouped together for
statistical purposes.
In population pyramids, each cohort is split between
men and women.
Population Pyramids

A model used in population geography to show the
age and sex distribution of a particular population.
Shape matters…
Wide-base= more young people
 Top-heavy= more old people


Tells you about the current population and can give
you information about the FUTURE!
Predicting Populations
Demographic Transition Model

Several models have been developed to explain
changes in population over time and to relate
various social, economic, and environmental
factors to population growth.
Demographic Transition Model

Explains changes in the natural increase rate as a
function of economic development.
Demographic Transition Model
Three measurements used in the DMT
Crude birth rate (CBR)
 Crude death rate (CDR)
 Natural increase rate (NIR)

Stages of “Transition”
Stage 1, Low Growth
 Stage 2, High Growth
 Stage 3, Moderate Growth
 Stage 4, Low Growth

Stage 1, Low Growth
(High Stationary Stage)
High CBR and CDR.
 Natural increase rate essentially zero.
 During this stage, most people depend on hunting
and gathering for food.
 Subsistence farming country without an
industrialized economy.

Stage 2, High Growth
(Expanding Stage)

Crude death rate suddenly plummets, while crude
birth rate roughly remains the same.
 Children are needed on farms (high CBR).
 New health care systems arrive (medicine) and
industrialization has begun (lowered CDR).

Therefore, the natural
increase rate is also
very high, and
population grows
rapidly.
Stage 3, Moderate Growth
(Expanding Stage)
Crude birth rate begins to drop sharply.
 The population continues to grow because the CBR is
still greater than the CDR, but the increase is more
modest.
 People choose to have fewer children.

 Population more likely to live in cities and to work in
offices, shops, etc. rather than farms.
 Children will live longer because of new health care
technology available.
 Women have more options in newly industrialized
economy.
Stage 3, Moderate Growth
(Expanding Stage)
Crude birth rate begins to drop sharply.
 The population continues to grow because the CBR is
still greater than the CDR, but the increase is more
modest.
 People choose to have fewer children.

 Population more likely to live in cities and to work in
offices, shops, etc. rather than farms.
 Children will live longer because of new health care
technology available.
 Women have more options in newly industrialized
economy.
Stage 4, Low Growth
(Low Stationary Stage)

Crude birth rate declines to the point where it
equals the crude death rate
 Zero population growth or very low NIR.

Modern-society stage.
Stage 5 (Proposed)

Would show a
continuing
decline in the
CBR
 Seen in more-
developed
countries such
as France and
Germany.
Is the
Demographic Transition Model
UNIVERSALLY
Applicable?????
Arguments against DTM
Too simplistic
 Eurocentric model?
 Factor such as culture, religion, geopolitics,
migration, and the structure of the global economic
system itself may prevent many of today’s less
developed countries from ever taking the path
described.

 More people today.
 Economies transitioning way faster now.

Regional differences
TERMS / Definitions

Physiological Density [生理的密度]:
divides the total population by the land
used by humans
Physiological Density
[生理的密度]
 Physiological Density = (total population) / (total cultivable land)
 JP population = 126.8 million (2018)
 JP arable land = 44,960 km²
 Physiological density =(126,800,000)/(44,960 )= 2820.3
people/km²