Inleiding tot
Risikobestuur
Leereenheid 1.1: Die Risikobestuursmodel
Study Unit 1.1: The Risk Management Model
Introduction to
Risk Management
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
• Wat wil ons met hierdie
studie eenheid bereik?
– ʼn Definisie vir risikobestuur
ontwikkel / saamstel
– Definieer verskillende
risiko’s
– Kennis maak met die
risikobestuursmodel
• What do we want to
accomplish with this study
unit?
– Compile / develop a
definition for risk
management
– Define different risks
– Be introduced to the risk
management model
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
Agtergrond
Background
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Mense is natuurlik risiko-vermydend;
Maniere is ontwikkel om risiko ten minste
gedeeltelik te bestuur;
Risikobestuur is dus in los terminologie
die kuns en wetenskap om risiko’s te
bestuur;
Globalisering / globale kompetisie en
wisselvalligheid in markte met
gepaardgaande hoë volatiliteit het
risikobestuur een van die belangrike
aspekte van besigheidsbestuur gemaak;
As ʼn sistematiese en holistiese
besigheidsdissipline is risikobestuur
egter ʼn moderne ontwikkeling;
•
•
•
People are by nature risk averse;
They have found ways, at least in part, to
manage risks;
Risk Management in a loose sense is the
art and science of managing risks;
Globalization / Global competition and
turbulent markets with associated high
levels of volatility have raised risk
management as an important aspect of
business management;
As a systematic and holistic business
discipline, however, risk management is
a modern development;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
Agtergrond
•
Investeerders is blootgestel aan 2
kategorieë van risiko:
1. Sistematiese risiko (Markrisiko)
•
Faktore wat die mark laat
versterk/verswak sal ʼn soortgelyke effek
op ʼn besigheid uitoefen wat ʼn noue
verwant het tot die mark
•
Faktore wat die hele mark beïnvloed sluit
in: rentekoerse, inflasie en ekonomiese
siklusse
Onsistematiese risiko
Ook besigheid-spesifiek risiko genoem
Veroorsaak deur faktore spesifiek op ‘n
bepaalde besigheid
Faktore sluit in: produk innovasie, markontwikkeling, verbruikersvoorkeur,
arbeidstakings en bestuursvernuf(bevoeg)
Background
•
Investors are exposed to 2 categories of risk:
Systematic risk (Mark risk)
•
Factors that cause the market to
increase/decrease will have a similar effect on
a company that is closely related to the
market
•
Factors that effect the entire market include:
interest rates, inflation and economic cycles
Unsystematic risk
Also called company specific risk
Caused by factors that are specific to a particular
company
These factors include product innovation, market
development, consumer preference, labour strikes
and management competency
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
• Definisie
Risikobestuur is ʼn
bestuursfunksie wat gemik is
op die beskerming van ʼn
organisasie, sy personeel,
bates en winste teen die
fisiese en finansiële impak
van risiko’s. Dit behels
beplanning, koördinering
(organisering), leiding en
beheer van aktiwiteite in die
organisasie;
• Definition
Risk management is a
managerial function aimed at
protecting the organization and
its people, assets and profits
against the physical and
financial consequences of risk. It
Involves planning, coordinating
(organizing), leading and
controlling of activities in the
organization.
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
Hoekom is risikobestuur
belangrik?
Why is risk management
important?
•
•
The substantial cost if of failure and the
equally large benefits that accrue from
managing the ratio of reward to risk
highlights the importance of risk
management for the business;
•
This volatile environment requires an
enterprise-wide approach to risk
management that is:
•
Die substansiële koste van mislukking
en die gelyke groot voordeel wat
ontstaan uit die bestuur van die
verhouding tussen risiko en opbrengs
op risiko beklemtoon die belangrikheid
van risikobestuur vir ʼn besigheid;
Hierdie volatiele omgewing vereis ʼn
ondernemings-wye aanslag tot
risikobestuur wat:
–
–
–
Omvattend is;
Insluitend is;
Pro-aktief is;
–
–
–
Comprehensive;
Inclusive;
Proactive;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
Ondernemings-wye risikobestuur aanslag:
• Omvattend:
– ʼn Geïntegreerde benadering tot
risikobestuur, dws:
– neem alle vlakke van besighede in
ag, naamlik:
Enterprise-wide approach to risk
management:
• Comprehensive:
• Omgewing en kultuur - benadering
– An integrated approach to risk
management, thus:
– Consider/involve all levels in
business, namely:
van die besigheid om risiko te bestuur;
• Environment and Culture -
• Strategie – duidelike
risikobestuursraamwerk en aksieplan is
opgestel;
• Prosesse - bestuur implementeer
strategie stapsgewys;
• Struktuur - betrokkenheid /
verantwoordelikheid van personeel in
die prosesse;
approach the organization uses to
manage risk;
• Strategy – setting a clear risk
framework and action plan
• Process - management implements
strategy step by step;
• Structure - involvement /
responsibility of staff in the process;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
•
•
Ondernemings-wye risikobestuur
aanslag:
Insluitend:
Alle vlakke van die organisasie moet
betrokke wees by die
risikobestuursproses;
Op ʼn strategiese vlak moet alle risiko opbrengs verhoudings vir alle tipes
risiko’s oorweeg word;
Die besigheid se direkteure moet ʼn
leidende rol speel om ʼn duidelike risiko
raamwerk saam te stel;
Risiko raamwerk
–
–
Riglyn vir bestuur van die beleggers se risiko –
opbrengs verwagtinge;
Riglyn vir aanvaarbare vlakke van risiko,
watter risiko’s moet oorgedra word en watter
moet verseker word;
•
•
•
•
•
Enterprise-wide approach to risk
management:
Inclusive:
Risk management must involve all the
levels of the organization;
It requires that the risk-to-reward ratio
for all types of risk to be considered;
The Company’s directors must play a
leading role in setting a clear risk
framework;
Risk framework:
–
–
Guide for management that relates investor’s
expectations to the risk-reward ratio;
Guidelines for acceptable levels of risk, what
risks will have to be transferred and which risks
should be insured;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
Ondernemings-wye risikobestuur
aanslag:
Insluitend:
Risiko raamwerk (vervolg..)
–
–
–
Op bestuursvlak vereis dit ʼn volledige
begrip van die risikobestuur beginsels
ten einde ʼn risikobestuur kultuur te
vestig;
Die interaksie tussen strategiese en
operasionele aktiwiteite is van
kardinale belang vir
implementeringsdoeleindes;
Vergoedingsisteme moet ontwikkel
word om risiko bewustheid aan te
wakker en ʼn dag-tot-dag risikobestuur
kultuur te vestig;
•
•
Enterprise-wide approach to risk
management:
Inclusive:
Risk framework (continue):
–
–
–
At management level this requires a full
understanding of the risk management
principles in order to embed a risk
management culture;
The interaction between strategic and
operational activities is essential for
implementation;
Reward systems must be designed to
encourage risk awareness and reward
behavior that is consistent with the day to
day risk management culture;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
•
Ondernemings-wye risikobestuur
aanslag:
Pro-Aktief:
Risiko’s moet vooruit geantisipeer
word;
Daar moet behoorlik voorsiening
gemaak word deur beide risiko
beheer en risiko finansiering vir
risiko’s wat mag voorkom;
Op hierdie manier word
risikobestuur ʼn integrale deel van
algemene bestuur in vergelyking
met ʼn stel geïsoleerde funksies
wat ʼn kompromie is tussen risiko
beheer en risiko finansiering;
•
•
•
•
Enterprise-wide approach to risk
management:
Proactive:
Risks must be anticipated in
advance;
Risks must be properly catered for
through both risk control and
financing arrangements;
In this way risk management
becomes an integral part of
general management, as opposed
to a set of isolated functions
compromising risk control and risk
financing;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURSPROSES (MODEL)
1. Bepaal die doelwitte van die
risikobestuursfunksie;
2. Identifiseer risiko’s;
3. Evalueer en assesseer risiko’s;
4. Beheer risiko’s;
5. Finansier risiko’s;
6. Program monitering en administrasie;
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK
MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
1. Determining the objectives of the risk
management function;
2. Risk identification;
3. Risk evaluation and assessment;
4. Risk control;
5. Risk financing;
6. Program monitoring and administration;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
1.Bepaal die doelwitte van die
risikobestuursfunksie
1.Determining the objectives of the risk
management function
Risikobestuur doelstellings en doelwitte
vorm die fondasie vir alle risikobestuur
aktiwiteite;
Die risikobestuur doelstellings en
doelwitte moet belyn word met die
strewe/missie van die organisasie;
Hierdie doelstellings en doelwitte vorm
die maatstaf waarteen sukses of
mislukking van die program gemeet
word;
RISIKOBESTUURSBELEID: Stel die
doelwitte duidelik en beskryf die
maatstawwe ten einde die risikobestuur
doelstellings te behaal;
•
•
•
•
Risk management goals and objectives is
critical, they serve as foundation for all
risk management activities;
The risk management goals and objectives
should be aligned with the mission of
the organization;
The goals and objectives provide the
yardstick against which the success or
failure of the program is measured;
RISK MANAGEMENT POLICY: States the
aims and describes the policy measures
for attaining the risk management goals;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
2.Identifiseer risiko’s
2.Risk Identification
Risiko’s kan voor die handliggend wees
en ander vereis dalk meer insig van ʼn
konsultant / spesialis om alle risiko
bronne te identifiseer;
Identifiseer eerstens risiko’s
kenmerkend aan die tipe besigheid:
– Gevaar risiko’s
• Swak instandhouding van toerusting /
masjinerie;
– Blootstellings risiko
• Personeel word beseer ten tye van
werking met die masjinerie in ʼn swak
werkende toestand
Eskom - Majuba report.pdf
•
•
Risks can be self-evident, while others
might require more insight from a
consultant / specialist to identify all risk
sources;
Firstly identify risks that are inherent to
the business type:
– Hazard risks
• Improperly maintained machinery /
equipment;
– Exposure risks
• Worker gets injured while working with
poorly maintained machinery;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
2.Identifiseer risiko’s… (vervolg)
2.Risk Identification… (continue)
•
Identifikasie van risiko’s word opgevolg
deur die analisering daarvan;
•
Identification is followed by risk
analysis;
•
Die risikobestuurder moet verstaan wat
die aard van die gevaar / risiko faktore
en blootstelling is; hoe hulle ontstaan en
veral hoe hulle inmekaar skakel om ʼn
verlies of wins te veroorsaak;
•
The risk manager must understand the
nature of those hazards, risk factors
and exposures; how they come to exist
and how they interact to produce a loss
or gain;
•
Persepsies van risiko, sowel as die
onsekerheid wat daarmee gepaard gaan
moet ook deel vorm van die analise:
•
Perceptions of risk, as well as the
uncertainty that accompanies it must form
part of the analysis;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
3.Risiko evaluasie en assessering
3.Risk evaluation and assessment
Belangrikste stap;
Saam met die identifikasie van moontlike
bronne van verlies vorm hierdie stap die
fondasie vir beplanning, organisering
en bestuur van risiko’s om die impak
van moontlike verliese te beperk;
Risiko evaluasie behels die
kwantifisering van die risiko, asook die
bepaling van die moontlike impak op die
organisasie;
Risiko evaluasie – hoe gereeld en hoe
ernstig risiko gebeurtenisse kan wees
en hoe hulle sal inmeng met die
organisasie se sukses;
•
•
•
•
Most important step;
Together with identification of possible
sources of loss, it represents the
foundation for planning, organizing
and managing the risk to reduce the
impact of possible losses;
Risk evaluation entails quantifying the
risk and determining its possible impact
on an organization;
Risk evaluation – how frequent and how
severe risk events are likely to be and
how they may interfere with the
organizations success;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management
Model
Risiko-hittekaart / Risk heat map
ʼn Risiko-hittekaart is ʼn hulpmiddel om die
resultate
van
ʼn
risiko-evaluasie
en
assesseringsproses visueel voor te stel (d.w.s.
die moontlike impak en waarskynlikheid van ʼn
risiko-gebeurtenis om plaas te vind). /
A risk heat map is a tool used to present the
results of a risk evaluation and assessment
process visually (i.e. the potential impact and
likelihood of a risk event occurring).
Read: Senwes probability_ impact and mitigation pdf
Woolworths – Integrated report pg 74
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
3.Risiko evaluasie en assessering...
3.Risk evaluation and assessment…
Die evaluasie van beide die frekwensie en
graad van verlies:
–
–
•
–
Dit is ʼn assessering van die besigheid se
risiko-retensie vermoë;
Ondersoek die impak van ʼn risiko relatief
tot die besigheid se finansiële sterkte;
The evaluation of both loss frequency and
loss severity:
–
Dit verskaf twee belangrike maatstawwe
naamlik verwagte gemiddelde verlies en
maksimum moontlike verlies;
Die proses is deurlopend aangesien die
frekwensie en grootte van verliese
konstant verander;
Die analise van die finansiële sterkte van
die besigheid:
–
•
–
•
Which will provide two significant
measures namely expected average
loss and maximum possible loss;
The process is continuous since the
frequency and severity of losses are
constantly changing;
An analysis of the financial strength of the
organization:
–
–
Basically an assessment of the firm’s riskretention capacity;
Ascertain what the impact of a given risk
might be relative to the financial strength
of the firm;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
4.Risiko beheer
4.Risk control
Beperk die risiko’s prakties;
Implementeer ʼn fisiese
risikobestuursprogram met
die volgende doelwitte:
–
–
–
–
Die omvang van blootstelling te
beperk;
Die frekwensie van verlies
gebeurtenisse te beperk;
Hanteer fisies verlies
gebeurtenisse;
Herstel fisies van verlies
gebeurtenisse;
• Minimise risk practically;
• Implement a physical risk
management program with
the following goals:
– Reduce the magnitude of the
exposure;
– Reduce the frequency of the
loss- producing events;
– Dealing physically with lossproducing events;
– Recovering physically from lossproducing events;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
4.Risiko beheer… (vervolg)
4.Risk control… (continue)
Risiko beheer programme kan na verwys
•
word as prakties in die sin dat dit uitgevoer
moet word by die bron van die probleem;
Gesien as ʼn personeel funksie, maar
•
implementering en monitering ʼn
bestuursfunksie;
Vier verskillende reaksies tot risiko:
•
1.
2.
3.
4.
Vermyding: vermy risiko deur nie sekere aktiwiteite uit te
voer nie; Aksie word geneem om die risiko te verwyder
Aanvaarding: sekere tipes risiko is inherent deel van ʼn
spesifieke besigheidsvorm; geen aksie word geneem om die
erns te verander nie – binne risiko-aptyt
Mitigeer: aksie word geneem wat gemik is op die versagting
van die impak van risiko’s;
Verdeel /Oordra: verminder die erns deur die risiko oor te dra
– versekering, uitkontrakteer
Risk control programs may be referred to
as practical in the sense that they are
conducted at the source of the risk;
Viewed as a staff function, but the
practical implementation and monitoring
are management functions;
Four different responses to risk:
1.
2.
3.
4.
Avoidance: risks can be avoided by not carrying out
specific activities; Action is taken to remove the risk.
Acceptance: certain risks inherent to a specific
business; No action is taken to change the severity. –
already within risk-appetite
Mitigation: action is taken aimed at lessening the
impact of the risk;
Share / Transfer: reduce the severity by sharing the risk
- insurance, outsource
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
5.Risiko finansiering
5.Risk financing
Bepaal die finansiële voorsiening vir
verliese wat mag voorkom;
Verskaf die maniere om verliese wat
wel plaasvind te absorbeer en om
ander programme te befonds ten einde
onsekerheid en risiko te verlaag of
positiewe uitkomste te bewerkstellig;
Die finansiering van verliese wat wel
gebeur kan byvoorbeeld gedoen word
deur:
–
–
–
Versekeringsdekking;
Verbande op vaste eiendom;
Erkenning van skuld / borgstellings…
•
•
•
Entails the financial provision for
losses that may occur;
Provide the means of reimbursing
losses that occur and for funding other
programs to reduce uncertainty and
risk, or to enhance positive outcomes;
The financing of losses that do occur can
for instance be done by one of the
following:
–
–
–
Insurance coverage;
Registering bonds on fixed property;
Recognition of debt / providing security
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
5.Risiko finansiering… (vervolg)
5.Risk financing… (continue)
Effektiewe risiko finansiering:
–
–
–
Self finansiering van risiko gevalle,
besigheid hou kapitaal terug of likiede
bates ten einde verliese te absorbeer;
Die kombinering van risiko’s
(diversifikasie of verskansing) om risiko
blootstelling op hierdie manier te versprei
en op hierdie manier die waarskynlikheid
van verliese beter te bepaal;
Dra risiko’s oor aan derde partye deur
middel van byvoorbeeld versekering;
•
Most effective method of financing risks:
–
–
–
The retention of risk under a deliberate
self-funding plan like keeping capital or
liquid assets to absorb losses;
The combination of risks (diversifying
or hedging) to obtain the benefit of
greater certainty in predicting the loss
occurrences;
Transfer risks cost to other third
parties through techniques such as
insurance;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
•
•
•
ELEMENTE IN DIE RISIKOBESTUURS-PROSES (MODEL)
ELEMENTS IN THE RISK MANAGEMENT PROCESS (MODEL)
6.Program monitering en
administrasie
6.Program monitoring and
administration
Veranderinge in die omgewing waarin
risiko’s voorkom kan veroorsaak dat
doelwitte nie gehaal word nie – hersien
besluite!
Monitering vestig prosedures in die dag
tot dag risikobestuursprogram;
Alhoewel die afgelope 6 elemente in die
risikobestuursmodel puntsgewys gelys is,
is die volgorde nie noodwendig belangrik
nie en die eerste 5 elemente kan
oorvleuel;
Normaalweg sal die hersiening van risiko
dekking / finansiering deel vorm van die
program administrasie, nie assessering;
•
•
•
•
Changes in conditions where risks occur
may cause the program to fall short of
goals – revise decisions!
Monitoring establishes procedures for
the day-to-day operations of the risk
management program;
Despite the fact that the listing of these
elements is a sequence, risk management
is not a sequential process and the
elements can also overlap;
Normally the review of coverages would be
considered part of the program
administration, not of risk assessment;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
• Selfevaluering
– Definieer Risikobestuur:
Risikobestuur is ʼn bestuursfunksie
wat gemik is op die beskerming van ʼn
organisasie, sy personeel, bates en
winste teen die fisiese en finansiële
impak van risiko’s. Dit behels
beplanning, koördinering en bestuur
van die risiko beheer en risiko
finansierings aktiwiteite in die
organisasie;
• Self-evaluating
– Define Risk management:
Risk management is a managerial
function aimed at protecting the
organization and its people, assets
and profits against the physical and
financial consequences of risk. It
Involves planning, coordinating and
directing the risk-control and the riskfinancing activities in the organization;
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
• Selfevaluering
– Hoekom is risikobestuur
nodig?
•
Die substansiële koste indien
risikobestuur faal en die gelyke groot
voordeel wat ontstaan uit die bestuur
van die verhouding tussen risiko en
opbrengs op risiko beklemtoon die
belangrikheid van risikobestuur vir ‘n
besigheid;
Skyfie: 6-10
• Self-evaluating
– Why is risk management
necessary?
The substantial cost if risk
management fails and the equally
large benefits that accrue from
managing the ratio of reward to risk
highlights the importance of risk
management for the business;
•
Slide 7-12
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
• Selfevaluering
– Bespreek die
risikobestuursproses:
• Self-evaluating
– Discuss the risk
management process:
1. Bepaal die doelwitte van die
risikobestuursfunksie;
2. Identifiseer risiko’s;
3. Evalueer en assesseer risiko’s;
4. Beheer risiko’s;
5. Finansier risiko’s;
6. Program monitering en administrasie;
1. Determining the objectives of the risk
management function;
2. Risk identification;
3. Risk evaluation and assessment;
4. Risk control;
5. Risk financing;
6. Program monitoring and
administration;
• Slide 12-25
•
Skyfie 12 - 23
Die Risikobestuursmodel / The Risk Management Model
•
Selfevaluering
– Wat is die verhouding tussen
risiko en opbrengs?
•
Self-evaluating
– What is the relationship between
risk and return:
•
Risiko is inherent deel van beleggings. Ten
einde ʼn sinvolle opbrengs op ʼn belegging te
realiseer, moet daar risiko teenwoordig wees. ʼn
Risiko vrye bate sal min of geen opbrengs
realiseer nie. Die slim belegger besef bestuur
risiko deur die teenwoordigheid te erken, dit te
meet en dan realisties te besluit of die risiko
binne sy risiko kapasiteit is. Daar is niks
daarmee verkeerd om te belê in ʼn hoë risiko
fonds as die opbrengs net so hoog is nie. Die
vrae om te vra is:
•
Risk is an inherent part of investing. In order to
get a reasonable return on an investment, risk
has to be present. A riskless asset will produce
little or no return. The intelligent investor
manages risk by recognizing its existence,
measuring its degree in any given investment
and realistically assessing his or her capacity
to take risk. There is nothing wrong with
investing in a high-risk fund if the fund's return
is equally high. The questions to ask are:
•
•
Can I afford the loss if it occurs?
Am I emotionally prepared to deal with the
uncertainties of high-risk investments?
Do I need to take this kind of risk to achieve my
investment goals?
•
•
•
Kan ek die verlies bekostig as dit gebeur?
Is ek emosioneel opgewasse om die onsekerheid van
hoë risiko beleggings te verwerk?
Het ek nodig om hierdie tipe risiko te neem ten einde
my beleggingsdoelwitte te bereik?
•