Geopolitics of Climate Change
and Environmental Challenges
Presented by
Mrs. Sheryl Enriquez Mataac
What is Geopolitics?
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics)
• Geopolitics (from Ancient Greek γῆ (gê) 'earth, land' and πολιτική (politikḗ) 'politics') is the study of the
effects of Earth's geography on politics and international relations.[1][2] Geopolitics usually refers
to countries and relations between them, it may also focus on two other kinds of states: de
facto independent states with limited international recognition and relations between sub-national
geopolitical entities, such as the federated states that make up a federation, confederation, or a quasifederal system.
• Geopolitics focuses on political power linked to geographic space, in particular, territorial waters and land
territory in correlation with diplomatic history.
What is Geopolitics?
(https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geopolitics)
• According to Christopher Gogwilt and other researchers, the term is currently being used to describe a broad
spectrum of concepts, in a general sense used as "a synonym for international political relations", but more
specifically "to imply the global structure of such relations"; this usage builds on an "early-twentieth-century
term for a pseudoscience of political geography" and other pseudoscientific theories
of historical and geographic determinism
What is Geopolitics?
(https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/geopolitics)
• a study of the influence of such factors as geography, economics, and demography on the politics and
especially the foreign policy of a state
• a governmental policy guided by geopolitics
• a combination of political and geographic factors relating to something (such as a state or particular
resources)
Climate change
• is conventionally understood as a classic international collective
action problem. The logic goes that stabilization of Earth’s
climate can be achieved only when several coordination
problems—chief among them controlling emissions—are
solved. In an international order in which only nation-states hold
the power to solve these problems, such control can be
achieved only by joint action between these states (Keohane
and Victor 2011).
• https://kleinmanenergy.upenn.edu/research/publications/climateaction-in-the-age-of-great-power-rivalry-what-geopolitics-means-forthe-climate/
Geopolitics of Climate Change
• Throughout recent history, governments have competed with each other to secure access to mineral
resources, especially oil and gas. Energy trading relationships have considerably shaped international
cooperation, as well as foreign and security policies. Since many of the world’s oil and gas reserves are
located in fragile or politically unstable places, and are often at the center of countries' economies, the drive
to substitute these for cleaner energy sources comes with geopolitical risks. Understanding these risks is an
important step for a fair and peaceful transition away from fossil fuels.
© David Mark/Pixabay.com
© Sopotnicki/Shutterstock.com
THE CHALLENGE
• To achieve the goal of the Paris Agreement, virtually all countries around the world have to remove carbon
and other GHGs from their energy systems and broader economies. This will affect patterns in resource
demand in the future, which presents a significant risk for certain countries and an opportunity for others.
For example, oil-exporting economies will have to deal with stranded assets, while mineral-exporting
countries might benefit from a green transition. Another area where conflict risks need to be mitigated is the
mushrooming extraction of raw materials.
• Both the increased extraction of fossil fuels, minerals and other resources as well as shifting global demand
patterns have wide-ranging consequences, including pollution, social disputes, and even conflict. Nations,
corporations, and financial markets need to plan now to mitigate the risks posed to all countries by the
energy transition away from fossil fuels. It is an international priority to enforce international and national
regulations that protect the environment, and eventually transform the way we produce and consume goods
and services. Countries with fewer resources to develop in a carbon-neutral way must receive special
attention and support. Climate diplomacy offers a range of tools and entry points to achieve this.
• Climate change is a geopolitical issue that can increase the risk of
conflict and migration, and reshape the global order. Climate change
can also lead to a race for natural resources like land and fish.
How climate change affects geopolitics
Scarcity of natural resources
• Climate change can lead to a race for natural resources like land and
fish.
Geopolitical competition
• Climate change can lead to fierce competition between superpowers
and emerging powers for energy resources.
Conflict and migration
• Climate change can increase the risk of conflict and migration due to
water and food shortages, natural disasters, and other factors.
How climate change affects the environment
Water scarcity
• Climate change can make water scarcer in more regions, especially those that are
already water-stressed.
Extreme weather
• Climate change can lead to more frequent and intense heat waves, droughts,
floods, and storms.
Ocean acidification
• Climate change can cause the oceans to warm and become more acidic.
Melting glaciers
• Climate change can cause glaciers and ice sheets to melt, leading to rising sea
levels.
Climate change increases social-political and geopolitical risks in ...
The “Geopolitics of Climate Change and Conflict”
Series: A Summary
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/horn-africa/geopolitics-climate-change-and-conflict-series-summary
• The International Crisis Group’s Solutions Lab hosted a year-long series of virtual convenings on the
geopolitics of climate change and conflict, in partnership with Stiftung Mercator. This summary highlights key
insights and recommendations from the three expert roundtables
The Geopolitics of Climate Change and
Conflict
• On 25 May 2023, Crisis Group hosted the first convening to examine the links between geopolitical tensions
and the climate crisis, both of which are exacerbating instability and driving deadly violence in various
regions of the world. The group proposed ideas for better using multilateral frameworks to strengthen
cooperation and build consensus on climate action while navigating the challenges resulting from intensified
resource competition.
• Participants agreed on the need to find cooperative, equitable approaches to tackling global problems that
cannot easily be derailed by states pursuing their own narrowly defined interests. The group highlighted the
need for donors to listen to affected local communities and consider their particularities in the process of
fulfilling climate finance pledges to ensure a just energy transition.
Leveraging Climate Finance in ConflictAffected Countries: The Horn of Africa
• On 29 September 2023, ahead of COP28, the UN climate conference held in Dubai, Crisis Group hosted a
second roundtable on how to overcome the political and technical obstacles to delivering climate finance for
adaptation in the Horn of Africa
• Attendees talked about how they could prepare the ground for productive discussions in Dubai about
providing conflict-affected countries their fair share of adaptation funding.
• Adaptation is crucial for reducing vulnerability to the effects of climate change and insecurity. Extreme
environmental conditions can lead to a vicious circle where resource scarcity erodes resilience and fuels
conflict. Countries may also face external shocks besides climate change, such as the COVID-19 pandemic
and rising interest rates, that cause fiscal distress.
The Green Energy Transition and Conflict in
Africa
• On 26 February 2024, Crisis Group hosted the third roundtable on the green energy transition and conflict in
Africa. This event considered the impact of rising demand for critical commodities on conflict trends in Africa
and the risk of destabilisation for African fossil fuel producers as decarbonisation efforts ramp up. It then
addressed European climate and energy policies and their implications for security in Africa.
• The discussants noted that increased competition among big powers over access to minerals in Africa is
exacerbating tensions locally, regionally and internationally. They highlighted the power imbalance in the
operations of multinational mining and energy companies, which often benefit more from extracting the
mineral wealth than the countries sitting atop it. Most African countries with lucrative mineral deposits are
under-developed and susceptible to economic shocks that can often lead to political upheaval and conflict.
The Paris Agreement
https://wellbeingintl.org/cop28-climate-change-and-global-stocktake/?gad_source=1&gclid=CjwKCAiAzPy8BhBoEiwAbnM9O_uw1NYUFofyj6O3psnjADFrbt_3L9F07iVk-Tk2_r0V9_cw-_EexoCZHAQAvD_BwE
• The 2015 Paris Agreement was drafted and opened for signature on Earth Day (April 22) in 2016. The
agreement is a legally binding international treaty on climate change. Currently,194 countries and the
European Union have ratified the Paris Agreement. This treaty’s primary mission was to keep the increase in
global average temperature to below 2oC above pre-industrial levels and strive towards limiting the
temperature increase to just 1.5oC above pre-industrial levels.
• The Paris Agreement was a seminal event because most nations agreed on the significance of necessary
actions to combat climate change’s adverse and potentially catastrophic effects on our world today and for
future generations. As a result of the agreement, all Parties (country, state, or regional economic organization)
must submit and update plans for their nationally determined contributions (NDC). These climate action plans
must outline and communicate their post-2020 climate actions. The Paris Agreement also mandated a “Global
Stocktake” (GST) or report card of progress in 2023 and every five years after that.
•