ENGINEERING ECONOMICS ECO - 130 ENGINEERING ECONOMICS WHAT IS ECONOMICS? WHAT IS ENGINEERING? of Study of how individuals & societies machines, structures & processes using choose to use scarce resources (or factors “Designing, testing & building mathematics & science” “Application of science, mathematics, natural sciences & judgment gained by of production i.e. Land, Labor, Capital, Entrepreneurial Capability) that nature & previous generations have provided (Economies: Maximize limited resources) study, experience & practice” WHAT IS ENGINEERING ECONOMICS? “Collection of mathematical techniques that simplify economic comparisons” “Formulating, estimating, & evaluating the economic outcomes when alternatives, to accomplish a defined purpose, are available” THE FOUNDATION OF ECONOMICS SOCIETY HAS VIRTUALLY UNLIMITED WANTS... BUT LIMITED OR SCARCE PRODUCTIVE RESOURCES! INSATIABLE WANTS + FINITE RESOURCES = THE NEED TO ECONOMISE TYPES OF PROBLEMS? SIMPLE PROBLEMS? COMPLEX PROBLEMS? • Do not require much time/ effort to find a • Represents a mixture of economic, solution. political, and humanistic elements. • Can generally be worked in one’s head • Beyond the scope of this course from a without extensive analysis decision-making point of view, but the “Should I pay cash for an item or use economic aspects of complex problems will be discussed my credit card”? INTERMEDIATE PROBLEMS? Primarily economic that:- “Shall I buy or lease my next car”? • Must be organized and analyzed “Which materials should be • Are sufficiently important to justify serious thought & used as roofing, siding, & action structural support for a new • Are the principal subject of this course building”? Difference bewteen Economics & Finance? Economics Finance • It involves the study of production, • It focuses on how money flows through consumption and distribution of goods the market, including business, and services. personal and institutional finances. Fundamental Principles in Engineering Economics Principle 1 An earlier dollar is worth more than a later dollar – it is better to receive money earlier than later. Principle 2 All that counts is the differences among alternatives Principle 3 Marginal revenue must exceed marginal cost (any increased economic activity must be justified by this principle) Principle 4 Additional risk is not taken without expected additional return. ROLE OF ENGINEERING ECONOMIC ANALYSIS • Assists in making decisions where: • Decision is sufficiently important that serious thought and effort is required • Careful analysis requires that decision variables be carefully organized & consequences be understood (the decision cannot be worked in one’s head) • ECONOMIC ISSUES are a significant component of the analysis leading to a decision Which engineering projects are worthwhile? Which engineering projects should have a higher priority? How should the engineering project be designed? How to achieve long-term financial goals? How to compare different ways to finance purchases? How to make short and long term decisions RATIONAL DECISION MAKING Decision Making Situation At least 2 x Alternatives exist Rational Decision Making 1. Recognize a Decision Problem Employee turnover increase by 5% 2. Define the goal or objective Increase retention 3. Assemble relevant data Gather all possible information 4. Identify feasible alternatives Increase benefits, wages or change hiring standards 5. Select the criterion to determine the best alternative Improved retention rate with min financial burden on company 6. Construct a model Mathematical equations 7. Predict each alternative’s outcomes Use the equations to calculate 8. Choose the best alternative Based on step 7 9. Audit the result Monitor the new policy ETHICAL DILEMMA'S IN DECISION MAKING Ethical issues can arise at every stage of integrated process for engineering decision making Example Ethical Lapses by Decision Process Step Decision Process Step Example Ethical Lapses Recognize the problem “Looking the other way,” (not recognizing the problem- due to bribes/ fear of retribution for being a “Whistle-blower”) Define the goal or objective Favoring one group by focusing on their objective for a project Assemble relevant data Using faulty or inaccurate data Identify feasible alternatives Leaving legitimate alternatives out of consideration Select the criterion to determine Considering only monetary consequences when there are other the best alternative significant consequences Construct a model Using a possibility that favors one alternative over another Predict each alternative’s outcomes Using optimistic estimates for one alternative & pessimistic for others Choose the best alternative Choosing an inferior alternative, one that is unsafe, adds unnecessary cost for the end user, harms environment, etc. Audit the result Hiding past mistakes RATIONAL DECISION MAKING A concrete aggregate mix must contain at least 31% sand by volume for proper batching. One source of material, which has 25% sand and 75% coarse aggregate, sells for Rs 3000/m3. Another source, which has 40% sand and 60% coarse aggregate, sells for Rs 4400/m3. Determine the least cost per cubic meter of blended aggregates. Least cost of blended aggregate will results from maximum use of the lower cost material & small amount from high cost material Let x = Portion of blended aggregates from Rs 3000/m3 source 1-x = Portion of blended aggregates from Rs 4400/m3 source Sand balance x(0.25) + (1-x)(40) = 0.31 x =0.6 The 60-40% blended aggregate will cost 0.6(3000)+0.4(4400) = Rs 3560/m3 RATIONAL DECISION MAKING A machine part is manufactured at a unit cost of Rs 400 for material and 150 for direct labor. An investment of 500 Million in tooling is required. The order calls for 3 million pieces. Halfway through the order, managers learn that a new method of manufacture can be put into effect that will reduce the unit costs to 340 for material and 100 for direct labor—but it will require 100 Million for additional tooling. Other costs are allocated at 2.5 times the direct labor cost. What, if anything, should be done? Continue with Present Method New Method Material Cost 15,00,000 pieces x 400 Additional tooling cost = 100 Million = 600 Million Material Cost :15,00,000 pieces x 340 = 510 Mn Direct Labor Cost 15,00,000 pieces x Direct Labor Cost: 15,00,000 pieces x 100 = 150 = 225 Million 150 Mn Other Costs 2.5 x direct labour cost Other Costs 2.5 x direct labour cost = = 562.5 Million 375 Mn Cost for remaining 1500000 Pieces Cost for remaining 1.5 Million Pieces=1135Mn = 1387.5 Million Half the order is already complete so excluding it from calculations RATIONAL DECISION MAKING Two different liquid filter systems are being studied to clarify a liquid stream. A traditional filter will operate for one 8-hour shift before being replaced. A special pleated design can last one full week, operating 24 hours a day (3 shifts), 5 days per week. Labor cost to change a filter is Rs 1000/- for each filter change because a mechanic would work overtime to change the filter. The traditional filters cost Rs 3500; the special pleated filters cost Rs 9000. Which filter should be chosen? Material Cost Traditional: 3500/Filter Change x 3 Filter changes / Day x 5 Days / Week = 52500/Week Special: 9000/Filter change x 1 Filter change / Week = Rs 9000/Week Labor Cost Traditional: 1000/Filter Change x 3 Filter changes / Day x 5 Days / Week = 15000/Week Special: 1000/Filter change x 1 Filter change / Week = Rs 1000/Week Total Cost Traditional: 52500 + 15000= 67500/Week Special: 9000+1000= Rs 10000/Week The special pleated filter offers a lower total cost alternative RATIONAL DECISION MAKING Car A initially costs Rs 500 Thousand more than Car B, but it consumes 0.04 litres/km versus 0.05 litres/km for B. Both last 8 years and B’s salvage value is 100 thousand smaller than A’s. Fuel costs 250 per litre. Other things being equal, beyond how many kms of use per year (X) does A become preferable to B? ? RATIONAL DECISION MAKING Car A initially costs 500 Thousand more than Car B, but it consumes 0.04 litres/km versus 0.05 litres/km for B. Both last 8 years and B’s salvage value is 100 thousand smaller than A’s. Fuel costs 250 per litre. Other things being equal, beyond how many kms of use per year (X) does A become preferable to B? Difference (A & B) A B Price A B 500,000 Fuel Consumption/Km in Rs 0.04 x 250 0.05 x 250 2.5/km Value after 8 Years 100,000 0 100,000 Kms/yr beyond which A preferred over B X X Total yrs 8 8 So, Car A will become preferable over B beyond 20,000kms/yr of use for 8 x years (500,000−100,000) = (X×0.05×250×8)- (X×0.04×250×8) X = 20,000kms/yr What Makes Economic Decisions Different from Other Design Decisions? In a design situation The engineer uses known Physical properties Principles of chemistry and physics Engineering design correlations Engineering judgment to arrive at a workable and optimal design In considering economic decisions the measurement of investment attractiveness is relatively straight forward. However, information required in such evaluations always involves predicting, or forecasting, product sales, product selling price. and various costs over some future time frame - 5 years, 10 years, even 25 years. ? Any Questions