外汇的日内策略 - 适用于所有市场
理解价格行为
实用分析
5分钟时间框架
鲍勃·沃尔曼
理解价格行为是每位渴望成为专业交易者的必读书籍，他们希望深入理解通常所称的“裸图交易”
。书中有数百个详细评论的例子，沃尔曼令人信服地指出，只有少数价格行为原则对任何市场
时段的大部分波动负责——而且需要常识，远远超过掌握这些要素，才能在交易中获益。
这本书的力量在于以极其透明的方式阐述概念和交易技巧。除了为读者提供关于价格行为机
制的全面研究外，书中还包含了一系列连续六个月的欧元/美元5分钟图表。该部分包含近400
个完全注释的图表，这一部分本身就拥有其他交易指南中找不到的大量日内分析数据库。虽
然选择欧元/美元5分钟图表作为技术研究的主要平台，但沃尔曼强烈主张价格行为交易并不限
于任何一个市场或时间框架，也不受交易环境性质的限制。为了说明这一点，书中特别
包含了一节，讲述如何应对当今紧张市场中非常持久的低波动环境——这种情况在几种流行
的工具和时间框架中都很常见。
《理解价格行为》以锐利的眼光关注实用细节，同时以高度易于吸收的方式呈现，书中的每
一页都散发着品质，注定会成为任何认真对待自己教育的交易者书库中的经典。
鲍勃·沃尔曼（1961年）是一名独立交易者，专门为自己的账户进行交易。他是《外汇价格行
为剥头皮》的作者，这本书因其独创性和实用性而受到活跃剥头皮交易者的广泛赞誉，自20
11年首次出版以来一直供不应求。《理解价格行为》是他关于价格技术交易的第二部著作，
包含了任何交易者在一本交易指南中所能希望找到的所有见解和实用信息。
我
光塔出版社
intraday tactics on forex - applicable to all markets
UNDERSTANDING
PRICE ACTION
Practical Analysis
of the
5-Minute Time Frame
Bob Volman
intraday tactics on
forex - applicable to all markets
外汇的日内策略
- 适用于所有市场
理解
UNDERSTANDING
PRICE ACTION
价格行为
实用分析
Practical Analysis
of the
5分钟时间框架 Time Frame
5-Minute
鲍勃·沃尔曼
Bob
Volman
光
出版
Copyright © 2014 by Bob Volrnan. All rights reserved.
Published by: Light Tower Publishing
ISBN 978-90-822786-0-6
ProRealTime charts used with permission of www. ProRealTime.com
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mechanical methods, without the prior written permission of the author, except
in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other
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to the author at the address below.
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Disclaimer: This publication is solely designed for the purposes of information
and education. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss,
claims or damage incurred by any person as a consequence of the use of, or
reliance on, the contents herein.
Copyright
by Bob Volrnan. All rights reserved.
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Volman。保留所有权利。
Published by: Light Tower Publishing
出版者：光塔出版社
ISBN 978-90-822786-0-6
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些其他根据版权法允许的非商业用途。有关许可请求，请写信给作者，地址如下。
in the case of brief quotations embodied in critical reviews and certain other
noncommercial uses permitted by copyright law. For permission requests, write
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Excerpts of the book can be downloaded from:
本书的摘录可以从以下网址下载：
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www
Disclaimer: This publication is solely designed for the purposes of information
免责声明：本出版物仅用于信息和教育目的。出版商和作者对任何人因使用或依赖本内容而
and education. Neither the publisher nor author shall be liable for any loss,
导致的任何损失、索赔或损害不承担任何责任。
claims or damage incurred by any person as a consequence of the use of, or
reliance on, the contents herein.
Table of Contents
Preface
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Part 1: Practical Analysis
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
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5
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6
Chapter 1 :
A Time to Trade a nd a T ime to Study
Chapter 2:
Price Action Principles-Theory
Dou ble pressure
Support and resistance
. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .
False breaks, tease breaks and proper breaks
False highs and lows
Pullbacks reversals
Ceiling test
Round number effect
. . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
20
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67
Chapter 4:
Orders, Target a nd Stop
Chapter 5:
Trade Setups
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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Pattern break pullback
Pattern break combi
Pullback reversal
. . . . . ..
News report exit
Resistance exit
Reversal exit
30
33
Price Action Principles-Practice
Manual Exits
25
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Chapter 3:
Chapter 6:
I6
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Pattern break
V
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148
156
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177
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211
Chapter 7:
Skipping Trades a nd Trading Breaks for Failu re
Chapter 8:
Recap Part 1
目录
Table
of Contents
Preface
前言
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
第一部分：实用分析
Part
1: Practical Analysis
Chapter 1 :
第一章：
A Time to Trade a nd a T ime to Study
交易的时机与学习的时机
Chapter 2:
第二章：
Price Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
Dou ble pressure
双重压力
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
3
. . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
5
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
6
Support and resistance
支撑与阻力
. . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. .
False breaks, tease breaks and proper breaks
错误的中断、调侃的中断和适当的中断
False highs and lows
虚假的高点和低点
Pullbacks reversals
回调反转
Ceiling test
天花板测试
Round number effect
整数效应
. . . . .. . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Chapter 3:
第三章：
Price Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
Chapter 4:
第4章：
Orders, Target a nd Stop
订单、目标和止损
Chapter
第五章： 5:
Trade Setups
交易设置
20
Pullback reversal
回调反转
. . . . . ..
News report exit
新闻报道退出
阻力退出
Resistance exit
Reversal exit
反转退出
30
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . .
33
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . .
67
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Pattern break combi
模式突破组合
Manual Exits
手动退出
25
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
Pattern break pullback
模式突破回调
Chapter 6:
第六章：
I6
. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . .
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73
76
97
108
125
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143
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144
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8
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... ......
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Pattern break
模式突破
V
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. .. . . . . . . . . .
Chapter
第七章： 7:
Skipping Trades a nd Trading Breaks for Failu re
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
Chapter 8:
第八章：
Recap Part 1
回顾第一部分
148
156
. .. . .
177
. . . .. . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
211
Part 2: Evaluation and Management
Chapter 9 :
.............. . . .. . ........... .................
245
................................................................................................
250
Consecutive Intraday Charts
March
April
May
... .............................. .................................................. . . . .............
........ .......................... ............... ....................................................
June
...................................................................................................
July
.................................................. ........................................ ..........
August
..............................................................................................
293
3 16
337
359
...................................................
383
.....................................................
39 1
Chapter 1 0:
Trade Size-Com pounding
Chapter 1 1 :
Adapting to Low Volatility
Chapter 1 2:
Final Words
..............
421
.......... ....................................................... .......
422
................................ ................. .............................. ......... . . . . ......
423
.......... . ............................ ... ....... ....................
.
A bout the Author
Index
272
第二部分：评估与管理
Part 2: Evaluation and Management
Chapter 9 :
第九章：
Consecutive Intraday Charts
连续的日内图表
.............. . . .. . ........... .................
245
三月
March . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 250
April
四月
May
五月
... .............................. .................................................. . . . .............
........ .......................... ............... ....................................................
六月
June
July
七月
...................................................................................................
.................................................. ........................................ ..........
August
八月
..............................................................................................
Chapter 1 0:
第十章：
Trade Size-Com
交易规模
复利 pounding
Chapter 1 1 :
第11章：
Adapting to Low Volatility
适应低波动性
Chapter 1 2:
第十二章：
最后的话Words
Final
293
3 16
337
359
...................................................
383
.....................................................
39 1
..............
421
.......... ....................................................... .......
422
................................ ................. .............................. ......... . . . . ......
423
.......... . ............................ ... ....... ....................
.
关于作者
A bout the Author
索引
Index
272
Preface
In these modern times of high-tech trading devices, with all the latest
gadgets at the push of a button, price action traders may come off as
somewhat old-school. With nothing in front of them but the bars in the
chart, there is little in their workspace that bears witness of the digital
wave. Are they mere relics from a fading past, soon to be extinct, or
could it be that there is merit in this seemingly stubborn defiance of
trading evolution?
One way to answer this is to point out the actual benefits of every
indicator craze that has swept across the trading landscape for the
past so many years. Not an easy chore by any means. A simpler solu­
tion, perhaps, is to focus attention on the price action trader instead
and see if we can come to appreciate his one and only tool, the naked
chart.
With the latter idea in mind,
Understanding Price Action is written
not just to establish the virtues of the price action method, but to serve
as a practical guide on the matter. The core premise within is that any
dedicated student, before long, should be able to trade confidently
and profitably from a clean chart without ever feeling lost or otherwise
deprived.
For the purpose of illustration, any price chart could basically do,
but few are better suited for the job than the 5-minute chart of the eur /
usd currency pair. A true creature of habit, this market has long since
been the favorite of countless traders around the globe and it's hard to
v
前言
Preface
In these modern times of high-tech trading devices, with all the latest
在这些高科技交易设备的现代时代，所有最新的小工具都可以通过按一个按钮
gadgets at the push of a button, price action traders may come off as
来使用，价格行为交易者可能显得有些老派。面前只有图表中的柱状图，他们
somewhat
old-school. With nothing in front of them but the bars in the
的工作空间几乎没有任何证据表明数字浪潮的存在。他们是即将灭绝的过时遗
chart, there is little in their workspace that bears witness of the digital
物，还是在这种看似顽固的交易演变中有其价值？
wave. Are they mere relics from a fading past, soon to be extinct, or
could it be that there is merit in this seemingly stubborn defiance of
trading evolution?
One way to answer this is to point out the actual benefits of every
回答这个问题的一种方法是指出近年来席卷交易领域的每一种指标热潮的实际
indicator craze that has swept across the trading landscape for the
好处。这绝非易事。或许更简单的解决方案是将注意力集中在价格行为交易者身
past so many years. Not an easy chore by any means. A simpler solu­
上，看看我们是否能欣赏他唯一的工具——裸图表。
tion, perhaps, is to focus attention on the price action trader instead
and see if we can come to appreciate his one and only tool, the naked
chart.
With the latter idea in mind, Understanding Price Action is written
考虑到后者的想法，《理解价格行为》不仅是为了确立价格行为方法的优点
not just to establish the virtues of the price action method, but to serve
，也是为了在这方面提供实用指南。其核心前提是，任何专注的学生，经过一段
as a practical guide on the matter. The core premise within is that any
时间后，应该能够自信且盈利地从干净的图表中进行交易，而不会感到迷失或其
dedicated student, before long, should be able to trade confidently
他任何缺失。
and profitably from a clean chart without ever feeling lost or otherwise
deprived.
For the purpose of illustration, any price chart could basically do,
为了说明，任何价格图表基本上都可以，但很少有比欧元/美元货币对的5分
but few are better suited for the job than the 5-minute chart of the eur /
钟图表更适合这个工作。这是一个真正的习惯者，这个市场早已成为全球无数
usd
currency pair. A true creature of habit, this market has long since
交易者的最爱，很难想象还有什么更合适的平台来进行接下来章节的技术讨论
been the favorite of countless traders around the globe and it's hard to
。
v
Understanding Price Action
think of a more accessible platform for the technical discussions in the
chapters ahead.
When taking up the task of writing this guide, the objective was not
just to show a pallet of trading concepts on a number of cherry-picked
charts, but to give a fair impression also of their practical implementa­
tion on a day-to-day basis. For this purpose, the book has been split
into two parts.
Part I lays out the principles of price action and discusses entry and
exit techniques on a broad range of educational charts. In Part 2 we will
examine how these findings hold up on a more continuous basis. In­
cluded within is a series of six months of consecutive 5-minute sessions
of the eur / usd. Besides providing a massive amount of study material,
this series should leave little doubt behind as to the amazing continuity
and exploitability of price action themes from one session to the next.
One of the most common questions I rec.eived in response to my
first book, Forex Price Action Scalping, was if the principles and setups
pointed out on a fast scalping chart (70-tick) could also be applied to the
higher intraday frames, like the 2 or 5-minute, or even the hourly for
that matter. There can only be one answer to this question: price action
principles are transposable to any time frame of choice because they
bear within them the universal laws of supply and demand. This is not
bounded by the time in which it takes place, nor is it a prerogative of
any one market. From one instrument or time frame to another, subtle
adaptations may be called for, if only to accommodate for the differ­
ences in average range or motion; but the trading concepts of the price
action method are just as applicable to futures, indices, stocks, com­
modities, bonds, or what have you, as they are to the Forex markets.
As will be demonstrated also, price action principles are not only
free from the boundaries of market and frame, they stand above the
nature of the trading environment as well. To illustrate this point, a
special section is included on how to tackle a very persistent climate of
low volatility by slightly tweaking standard procedure to better suit the
conditions at hand. We will examine this adaptation process from the
viewpoint of a faster intraday frame on several currency pairs and some
popular non-Forex markets.
VI
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
。
think of a more accessible platform for the technical discussions in the
chapters ahead.
在撰写本指南的任务时，目标不仅仅是展示一系列精选图表上的交易概念，
When taking up the task of writing this guide, the objective was not
just
to show a pallet of trading concepts on a number of cherry-picked
而是要公平地展示它们在日常实践中的实施情况。为此，本书分为两部分。
charts, but to give a fair impression also of their practical implementa­
tion on a day-to-day basis. For this purpose, the book has been split
into two parts.
Part I lays out the principles of price action and discusses entry and
第一部分阐述了价格行为的原则，并讨论了在广泛的教育图表上的进出场技
exit techniques on a broad range of educational charts. In Part 2 we will
巧。在第二部分，我们将检查这些发现如何在更连续的基础上保持一致。包括在
examine how these findings hold up on a more continuous basis. In­
内的是一系列连续六个月的5分钟欧元/美元交易会话。除了提供大量的学习材料
cluded within is a series of six months of consecutive 5-minute sessions
外，这个系列应该几乎没有疑问地证明了价格行为主题在一个会话到下一个会话
of
the eur / usd. Besides providing a massive amount of study material,
之间的惊人连续性和可利用性。
this series should leave little doubt behind as to the amazing continuity
and exploitability of price action themes from one session to the next.
我在回应我的第一本书《外汇价格行为剥头皮》时，收到的最常见问题之一
One of the most common questions I rec.eived in response to my
first book, Forex Price Action Scalping, was if the principles and setups
是，快速剥头皮图表（70个点）上指出的原则和设置是否也可以应用于更高的
pointed
out on a fast scalping chart (70-tick) could also be applied to the
日内时间框架，比如2分钟或5分钟，甚至是小时图。对此问题只能有一个答案
higher intraday frames, like the 2 or 5-minute, or even the hourly for
：价格行为原则可以转移到任何选择的时间框架，因为它们蕴含了供需的普遍
that matter. There can only be one answer to this question: price action
法则。这并不受其发生的时间限制，也不是任何一个市场的特权。从一个工具
principles
are transposable to any time frame of choice because they
或时间框架到另一个工具或时间框架，可能需要进行微妙的调整，仅仅是为了
bear within them the universal laws of supply and demand. This is not
适应平均范围或波动的差异；但是，价格行为方法的交易概念同样适用于期货
bounded by the time in which it takes place, nor is it a prerogative of
、指数、股票、商品、债券或其他市场，就像它们适用于外汇市场一样。
any one market. From one instrument or time frame to another, subtle
adaptations may be called for, if only to accommodate for the differ­
ences in average range or motion; but the trading concepts of the price
action method are just as applicable to futures, indices, stocks, com­
modities, bonds, or what have you, as they are to the Forex markets.
正如将要展示的那样，价格行为原则不仅超越了市场和框架的界限，它们也
As will be demonstrated also, price action principles are not only
free from the boundaries of market and frame, they stand above the
超越了交易环境的本质。为了说明这一点，特别包括了一个部分，讲述如何通
nature
of the trading environment as well. To illustrate this point, a
过稍微调整标准程序来应对持续的低波动气候，以更好地适应当前的条件。我
special
section is included on how to tackle a very persistent climate of
们将从几个货币对和一些流行的非外汇市场的快速日内框架的角度来审视这一
low volatility by slightly tweaking standard procedure to better suit the
适应过程。
conditions at hand. We will examine this adaptation process from the
viewpoint of a faster intraday frame on several currency pairs and some
popular non-Forex markets.
六
VI
Preface
In regard to the absolute novice, it should be noted that to keep the fo­
cus at all times directed towards analysis, it is chosen not to disturb the
pace of this book with endless pages of introductory fluff that is readily
available either online or in more generic trading books. From a techni­
cal perspective, however, Understanding Price Action is written for both
the novice and the experienced trader, and for all who have taken inter­
est in exploring the benefits and possibilities of the price action method.
Free excerpts of the book can be downloaded from:
www.upabook.wordpress.com
VII
Preface
前言
In regard to the absolute novice, it should be noted that to keep the fo­
对于绝对新手来说，需要注意的是，为了始终将注意力集中在分析上，选择
cus at all times directed towards analysis, it is chosen not to disturb the
不打扰本书的节奏，避免无休止的介绍性内容，这些内容在网上或更通用的交
pace
of this book with endless pages of introductory fluff that is readily
易书籍中都可以轻易找到。然而，从技术角度来看，《理解价格行为》是为新
available either online or in more generic trading books. From a techni­
手和经验丰富的交易者以及所有对探索价格行为方法的好处和可能性感兴趣的
cal perspective, however, Understanding Price Action is written for both
人而写的。
the novice and the experienced trader, and for all who have taken inter­
est in exploring the benefits and possibilities of the price action method.
Free excerpts of the book can be downloaded from:
可以下载本书的免费摘录：
www.upabook.wordpress.com
VII
第七章
Part 1
Practical Analysis
第一部分
Part 1
Practical
实
用分析 Analysis
Chapter 1
A Time to Trade and a Time to Study
While the indicator hype has far from run its course, more and more
traders are coming to see the virtues of the "less is more" philosophy.
And with reason. There is something strikingly serene about a chart
stripped down to the bare essentials. There are no riddles to decipher,
no conflicting signals to evade, there is nothing cluttering up the screen.
It's all about facts-and they are out in the open. The bars in the chart
hold nothing back, nor will their message ever lag behind. With these
benefits in mind, the price action trader adheres to a very simple prem­
ise: if a high-odds trade cannot be spotted straight off the chart, it is
just no! there.
Still and all, without a proper understanding of market mechanics,
no trader of any kind is likely to escape the notorious lessons of the
market and the costly fees that come with it. The journey through the
learning stages is never an easy process and there will be pain and
hardship along the way. Chances are, quite a few will never surpass
this dreaded stage of initiation. On the good side, there is a lot a trader
can do to increase his chances of survival, and at little cost to boot: in a
nutshell, he needs to educate himself properly.
Bear in mind, this is not to suggest that all can be taught from the
drawing board; it merely serves to stress the importance of preparation.
If the goal is indeed to survive in a field where so many others have per­
ished before their time, how can it not pay to enter well prepared from
the outset.
3
Chapter 1
第一章
A Time to Trade and a Time to Study
交易的时机与学习的时机
尽管指标的热潮远未结束，但越来越多的交易者开始认识到“少即是多”哲学的
While the indicator hype has far from run its course, more and more
traders are coming to see the virtues of the "less is more" philosophy.
优点。这是有原因的。将图表简化到最基本的要素时，有一种令人惊叹的宁静
And with reason. There is something strikingly serene about a chart
。没有谜题需要解读，没有相互矛盾的信号需要回避，屏幕上没有任何杂乱。
stripped
down to the bare essentials. There are no riddles to decipher,
所有的一切都是事实——它们都摆在明面上。图表中的柱状图毫不隐瞒，它们
no conflicting signals to evade, there is nothing cluttering up the screen.
的信息也永远不会滞后。考虑到这些好处，价格行为交易者遵循一个非常简单
It's all about facts-and they are out in the open. The bars in the chart
的前提：如果无法直接从图表中发现高概率交易，那么它就不存在。
hold nothing back, nor will their message ever lag behind. With these
benefits in mind, the price action trader adheres to a very simple prem­
ise: if a high-odds trade cannot be spotted straight off the chart, it is
just no! there.
Still and all, without a proper understanding of market mechanics,
然而，没有对市场机制的正确理解，任何类型的交易者都不太可能逃脱市场
no
trader of any kind is likely to escape the notorious lessons of the
的臭名昭著的教训以及随之而来的高昂费用。经历学习阶段的旅程从来都不是
market
and the costly fees that come with it. The journey through the
一条容易的道路，途中会有痛苦和艰辛。很可能，有相当一部分人永远无法超
learning
stages is never an easy process and there will be pain and
越这一可怕的入门阶段。好的一面是，交易者可以做很多事情来提高生存的机
hardship along the way. Chances are, quite a few will never surpass
会，而且成本很低：简而言之，他需要好好教育自己。
this dreaded stage of initiation. On the good side, there is a lot a trader
can do to increase his chances of survival, and at little cost to boot: in a
nutshell, he needs to educate himself properly.
Bear
in mind, this is not to suggest that all can be taught from the
请记住，这并不是说所有人都可以从头开始学习；这只是强调准备的重要性。如
drawing board; it merely serves to stress the importance of preparation.
果目标确实是在一个许多其他人早逝的领域中生存，那么从一开始就做好充分的准
If the goal is indeed to survive in a field where so many others have per­
备，难道不是值得的吗？
ished before their time, how can it not pay to enter well prepared from
the outset.
3
Understanding Price Aaion
It is up to the student how long to commit to the safety of the side­
lines. For some it may take several months of reviewing the same old
principles over and over again, for others the light may turn green much
sooner than that. But even when all the concepts and techniques are
starting to make perfect sense, aspiring traders are well advised not to
delve into the markets without a solid plan in place. Lessons need to
be learned, but there is little point in allowing one's auditions to be un­
necessarily costly or self-defeating.
Next to jumping in headfirst, hurriedly adopting a third party meth­
od, just to get going, is another popular practice among many new
entrants. But when applied as a mere shortcut to education, this ap­
proach, too, is not likely to hold up in the line of duty, particularly
when the current market environment proves unfavorable to the chosen
method in question. The preferable route, by far, is to always put ample
time and effort into constructing a personal methodology, suited for all
seasons, and devoid of the vagaries and whims of third party discretion.
Although a fully functional and standalone method will be offered in
the chapters ahead, and referred to as "our" methodology, please un­
derstand that this is done so for practical purposes and not to suggest
that the reader should obligingly apply whatever is put forth. The con­
cepts and techniques, of course, can serve as a structural groundwork
for any customized method.
It may take some time and experimenting to find out what style of
trading suits a trader best. But regardless of personal preference, all
techniques should at least harbor the same objective, which is to ex­
ploit repetition. The first task, therefore, for any student, is to build up
a mental database of price action principles in action. In the following
two chapters we will have a close look at these essentials, from both a
theoretical and practical point of view. From there on, our focus will be
on the finer subtleties of trading the 5-minute chart.
4
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
It is up to the student how long to commit to the safety of the side­
学生自己决定要在安全的边缘停留多久。对某些人来说，可能需要几个月
lines. For some it may take several months of reviewing the same old
的时间反复审视同样的旧原则，而对其他人来说，绿灯可能会更早亮起。但是
principles over and over again, for others the light may turn green much
，即使所有的概念和技巧开始变得完美无缺，渴望成为交易者的人也应该谨慎
sooner
than that. But even when all the concepts and techniques are
，不要在没有一个稳固计划的情况下进入市场。需要学习的教训是有的，但
starting
to make perfect sense, aspiring traders are well advised not to
让自己的试探变得不必要地昂贵或自我挫败是没有意义的。
delve into the markets without a solid plan in place. Lessons need to
be learned, but there is little point in allowing one's auditions to be un­
necessarily costly or self-defeating.
Next to jumping in headfirst, hurriedly adopting a third party meth­
除了急于跳入其中，匆忙采用第三方方法以便开始外，许多新手中还有另
od, just to get going, is another popular practice among many new
一种流行的做法。然而，当这种方法仅仅作为教育的捷径时，在实际工作中，
entrants. But when applied as a mere shortcut to education, this ap­
这种做法也不太可能经得起考验，特别是在当前市场环境对所选方法不利的情
proach, too, is not likely to hold up in the line of duty, particularly
况下。最可取的做法是始终投入足够的时间和精力来构建一个适合各种情况
when the current market environment proves unfavorable to the chosen
的个人方法论，避免受第三方裁量的变幻莫测和任性影响。尽管在接下来的章
method
in question. The preferable route, by far, is to always put ample
节中将提供一个功能齐全且独立的方法，并称之为“我们”的方法论，但请理解
time
and effort into constructing a personal methodology, suited for all
，这样做是出于实用目的，并不是要暗示读者必须无条件地应用所提出的内容
seasons,
and devoid of the vagaries and whims of third party discretion.
。当然，这些概念和技术可以作为任何定制方法的结构基础。
Although a fully functional and standalone method will be offered in
the chapters ahead, and referred to as "our" methodology, please un­
derstand that this is done so for practical purposes and not to suggest
that the reader should obligingly apply whatever is put forth. The con­
cepts and techniques, of course, can serve as a structural groundwork
for any customized method.
It may take some time and experimenting to find out what style of
找到最适合交易者的交易风格可能需要一些时间和实验。但无论个人偏好如
trading suits a trader best. But regardless of personal preference, all
何，所有技术至少都应该有相同的目标，即利用重复性。因此，任何学生的首
techniques should at least harbor the same objective, which is to ex­
要任务是建立一个关于价格行为原则的心理数据库。在接下来的两章中，我们
ploit repetition. The first task, therefore, for any student, is to build up
将从理论和实践的角度仔细研究这些基本要素。从那时起，我们的重点将放在
a
mental database of price action principles in action. In the following
交易5分钟图表的细微差别上。
two chapters we will have a close look at these essentials, from both a
theoretical and practical point of view. From there on, our focus will be
on the finer subtleties of trading the 5-minute chart.
4
Chapter 2
Price Action P rinciples-Theory
Price action principles form the basic ingredients of all sound trading
techniques. While their variations in appearance are practically infinite,
as are the ways they can be implemented into a plan of attack, all will
find footing in a small set of elementary concepts that repeat over and
over again in any technical chart. The core principles relate to:
Double pressure.
Support and resistance.
False breaks, tease breaks and proper breaks.
False highs and lows.
Pullback reversals.
Ceiling test.
Round number effect.
Figure 2.1 provides a schematic impression of the principles in action;
if presented in regular bars this may very well have been a typical 5minute chart of the eurjusd pair meandering in a 50 pip range over the
course of a session--or any other chart, for that matter.
Rather than delving into these price charts straightaway, let us es­
tab;ish a solid foundation for all our further studies by exploring each
of the seven principles from a theoretical viewpoint first.
5
Chapter 2
第二章
Price Action P rinciples-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
Price action principles form the basic ingredients of all sound trading
价格行为原则构成了所有健全交易技术的基本成分。尽管它们在外观上的变
techniques. While their variations in appearance are practically infinite,
化几乎是无限的，实施到攻击计划中的方式也是如此，但所有这些都将基于
as are the ways they can be implemented into a plan of attack, all will
一小组反复出现的基本概念。这些核心原则与：
find footing in a small set of elementary concepts that repeat over and
over again in any technical chart. The core principles relate to:
Double pressure.
双重压力。
Support and resistance.
支撑与阻力。
False breaks, tease breaks and proper breaks.
假突破、诱导突破和真正突破。
False highs and lows.
假高点和假低点。
Pullback reversals.
回调反转。
Ceiling test.
天花板测试。
整数效应。number effect.
Round
Figure 2.1 provides a schematic impression of the principles in action;
图2.1提供了这些原则在实际中运作的示意图；如果以常规的柱状图呈现，这很
if
presented in regular bars this may very well have been a typical 5可能是欧元/美元对在一个交易时段内在50点范围内波动的典型5分钟图表——或
minute chart of the eurjusd pair meandering in a 50 pip range over the
者说任何其他图表。
course of a session--or any other chart, for that matter.
Rather
than delving into these price charts straightaway, let us es­
在深入研究这些价格图表之前，让我们首先从理论角度探讨这七个原则，以
tab;ish
a solid foundation for all our further studies by exploring each
建立一个坚实的基础，为我们后续的学习做好准备。
of the seven principles from a theoretical viewpoint first.
5
Understanding Price Action
lower top
,-:::�=�-=��------:
:
� (buildup)
double top
pre-breakout tension
pullback
""-
double pressure
triple bottom
'
Ceiling test
pre-breakout tension
(buildup)
higher bottom
Figure 2.1. Schematic illustration of the core principles of price action.
Double Pressure
Since no trader can take his own trades to target, we are all dependent
on the actions and reactions of our fellow traders in the field. Does this
mean we are mere puppets hanging from the market's fickle strings? Far
from it. But we need to play our game cleverly. Before putting capital at
risk on any one trading idea there is an important concept to take into
account: for prices to follow through in substantial fashion, we need as­
sistance from both sides of the market. Should we aim to take position
on, say, the bull side, it may not suffice to only find companions in the
bullish camp. Preferably, we would like to see a decent number of bears
quickly bail out to protect themselves from the very rising market we
are trying to exploit. The more bears forced to buy back their shorts, the
better the odds for our trade to reach its destination before the situation
sees chance to reverse.
When both bull and bear temporarily join forces on the same side
of the market-not with similar enthusiasm, we can imagine-we have
what we can refer to as a double-pressure situation. Considering the
many seesaw motions in any chart, these imbalances between supply
and demand are far from unique; but it is fair to suggest also that they
sooner tend to self-correct than blossom into anything substantial. In
a certain set of conditions, however, double pressure could start to feed
on itself, and this could really set the wheels in motion. Should we see
6
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
低点
lower top
,-:::�=�-=��------:
:
� (buildup)
双顶
double top
pre-breakout tension
突破前的紧张（积累）
虚高
双重压力
试探突破
pullback
回调
错误突破
double
双重压力pressure
triple bottom
三重底
""-
'
Ceiling test
天花板测试
pre-breakout
tension
突破前的紧张（积累）
(buildup)
higher
bottom
更高的底部
Figure价格行为核心原则的示意图。
2.1. Schematic illustration of the core principles of price action.
图2.1.
双重压力
Double Pressure
Since no trader can take his own trades to target, we are all dependent
由于没有交易者能够将自己的交易推向目标，我们都依赖于市场中其他交易者的行
on the actions and reactions of our fellow traders in the field. Does this
为和反应。这是否意味着我们只是悬挂在市场多变的绳索上的木偶？远非如此。但
mean we are mere puppets hanging from the market's fickle strings? Far
我们需要聪明地进行游戏。在将资本置于任何一个交易想法的风险之前，有一个重
from it. But we need to play our game cleverly. Before putting capital at
要的概念需要考虑：为了让价格以实质性的方式跟随，我们需要市场双方的支持。
risk on any one trading idea there is an important concept to take into
如果我们打算在牛市一方建立头寸，仅仅找到一些志同道合的牛市交易者可能是不
account: for prices to follow through in substantial fashion, we need as­
够的。我们更希望看到相当数量的空头迅速退出，以保护自己免受我们试图利用的
sistance
from both sides of the market. Should we aim to take position
不断上涨的市场的影响。被迫回补空头的空头越多，我们的交易在达到目标之前逆
on,
say, the bull side, it may not suffice to only find companions in the
转的可能性就越小。
bullish camp. Preferably, we would like to see a decent number of bears
quickly bail out to protect themselves from the very rising market we
are trying to exploit. The more bears forced to buy back their shorts, the
better the odds for our trade to reach its destination before the situation
sees chance to reverse.
When both bull and bear temporarily join forces on the same side
当牛市和熊市暂时在市场的同一边联手时——我们可以想象，他们的热情并
of the market-not with similar enthusiasm, we can imagine-we have
不相同——我们就有了可以称之为双重压力的情况。考虑到任何图表中众多的
what we can refer to as a double-pressure situation. Considering the
跷跷板运动，供需之间的这种不平衡远非独一无二；但也可以公平地说，它们
many seesaw motions in any chart, these imbalances between supply
往往会自我纠正，而不是发展成任何实质性的东西。然而，在一定的条件下，
and demand are far from unique; but it is fair to suggest also that they
双重压力可能会开始自我强化，这可能会真正启动局面。如果我们看到
sooner tend to self-correct than blossom into anything substantial. In
a certain set of conditions, however, double pressure could start to feed
on itself, and this could really set the wheels in motion. Should we see
6
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
prices head out one way much more than the other, this is generally
referred to as follow-through
Rather than responding to its presence, arguably a more promising
way to take advantage of follow-through is to anticipate its origin so as
to take position in its primary stage. This implies that these events do
not always appear out of the blue. Indeed, it can safely be stated that in
any session of any market sooner or later the price action will build up
to a boiling point from where the pressure is likely to escape in double­
pressure manner. To detect these "sweetspots" in the chart, the crucial
boundaries between attack and defense, is essentially what a breakout
method is all about.
While most traders will find merit in the double-pressure concept,
many may not sympathize with the idea of trading breaks. Some will
even argue that in today's tight markets the failure rate of the average
breakout (of whatever kind) is so high that this once much-appreciated
strategy is now a poor proposition at best. This critique is not entirely
out of place. Many breaks indeed fail to follow through, and not seldom
by design. Yet if we learn to make distinctions between the high and
low-odds varieties there is no need for pessimism on the part of trading
breaks, quite the contrary. In the chapters ahead, we will see hundreds
of examples of breakouts that should leave little room for argument as
to their tradability with high odds attached.
But in all cases, conditions are king. Even a break in line with the
dominant pressure runs a high risk of failure if poorly set within the
technical picture. Always more telling than its mere occurrence is the
way a break is built up. By and large, the best opportunities stem from
a visible fight over the breakout level in question-a number of alternat­
ing bars in which bulls and bears battle it out in a relatively tight vertical
span. These tug-o-wars can materialize in any number of ways, but not
seldom only a handful of bars are needed to recognize the sweetspot in
the chart, and with it, the potential for a serious pop. We can refer to
these cluster progressions as buildup or pre-breakout tension.
Figure 2.2 shows a random series of very common buildup situa­
tions that often precede a breakout of sorts. In a regular chart, these
sideways progressions may be a little less straightforward (not neces-
7
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
prices head out one way much more than the other, this is generally
价格在一个方向上的变动远大于另一个方向，这通常被称为后续行动。
referred to as follow-through
Rather than responding to its presence, arguably a more promising
与其对它的存在做出反应，不如说，利用后续行动更有希望的方式是预测它
way to take advantage of follow-through is to anticipate its origin so as
的起源，以便在其初始阶段占据位置。这意味着这些事件并不总是凭空出现。
to
take position in its primary stage. This implies that these events do
事实上，可以肯定地说，在任何市场的任何交易时段，价格走势迟早会达到一
not always appear out of the blue. Indeed, it can safely be stated that in
个沸点，压力很可能以双重压力的方式释放出来。在图表中检测这些“最佳位置”
any session of any market sooner or later the price action will build up
，即攻击和防御之间的关键边界，本质上就是一个突破方法的核心所在。
to a boiling point from where the pressure is likely to escape in double­
pressure manner. To detect these "sweetspots" in the chart, the crucial
boundaries between attack and defense, is essentially what a breakout
method is all about.
虽然大多数交易者会发现双重压力概念的优点，但许多人可能对交易突破
While most traders will find merit in the double-pressure concept,
many may not sympathize with the idea of trading breaks. Some will
的想法并不认同。有些人甚至会争辩说，在当今紧张的市场中，平均突破（无
even argue that in today's tight markets the failure rate of the average
论何种类型）的失败率如此之高，以至于这一曾经备受推崇的策略现在充其量
breakout (of whatever kind) is so high that this once much-appreciated
只是一个糟糕的选择。这种批评并非完全无的放矢。许多突破确实未能跟进，
strategy
is now a poor proposition at best. This critique is not entirely
而且往往是故意的。然而，如果我们学会区分高概率和低概率的突破，交易突
out of place. Many breaks indeed fail to follow through, and not seldom
破就没有必要感到悲观，恰恰相反。在接下来的章节中，我们将看到数百个突
by design. Yet if we learn to make distinctions between the high and
破的例子，这些例子几乎没有争议地证明了它们的高可交易性。
low-odds varieties there is no need for pessimism on the part of trading
breaks, quite the contrary. In the chapters ahead, we will see hundreds
of examples of breakouts that should leave little room for argument as
to their tradability with high odds attached.
But in all cases, conditions are king. Even a break in line with the
但在所有情况下，条件是关键。即使是与主导压力一致的突破，如果在技
dominant pressure runs a high risk of failure if poorly set within the
术图形中设置不当，也面临着高失败风险。突破的发生方式比其单纯的发生
technical
picture. Always more telling than its mere occurrence is the
更具说明性。一般来说，最佳机会源于对突破水平的明显争夺——在相对狭
way a break is built up. By and large, the best opportunities stem from
窄的垂直范围内，牛市和熊市之间进行的一系列交替的K线。这些拉锯战可以
a visible fight over the breakout level in question-a number of alternat­
以多种方式出现，但通常只需少数几根K线就能识别出图表中的甜蜜点，以及
ing bars in which bulls and bears battle it out in a relatively tight vertical
随之而来的大幅波动潜力。我们可以将这些聚集进程称为积累或前突破张力
span.
These tug-o-wars can materialize in any number of ways, but not
。
seldom only a handful of bars are needed to recognize the sweetspot in
the chart, and with it, the potential for a serious pop. We can refer to
these cluster progressions as buildup or pre-breakout tension.
Figure
2.2 shows a random series of very common buildup situa­
图
2.2 显示了一系列非常常见的累积形态，这些形态通常先于某种突破。在
tions that often precede a breakout of sorts. In a regular chart, these
常规图表中，这些横向波动可能不那么直接（不一定），
sideways progressions may be a little less straightforward (not neces-
7
Understanding Price Action
sarily), but the element of buildup is never hard to detect: prices keep
pushing at and bouncing off a level of interest, until either the defend­
ers or the attackers throw in the towel.
/
IeZ�VV\M�\I
--I �I
1\
buildup
Figure 2.2. Double-pressure pops after buildup.
While each buildup cluster has a bull and a bear side, in the vast ma­
jority of tradable cases only one will qualify for trading purposes. It
is interesting to note also that this side is generally the most defined,
which stands to build up the pre-breakout tension even more. At the
"non-break" side, however, the price action can still send out very telling
signals and this, too, can play a role in the timing of the break.
When it comes to taking position, the break of a specific bar in a
buildup progression could trigger an entry in the market, but this is
never a standalone event; there are always more parameters to take into
account. To judge any situation in its proper light, a solid understand­
ing of price action principles is essential.
Support and Resistance
In mainstream Technical Analysis, the concept of support and resis­
tance is by far the granddaddy of all price technical phenomena. The
general idea is that the levels in the chart from where prices previously
bounced may prove their resilience again at a later stage, but will be
broken at some point. It takes little charting experience to find merit
within this observation.
8
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
sarily), but the element of buildup is never hard to detect: prices keep
但累积的要素总是很容易被发现：价格不断冲击并从某个感兴趣的水平反弹，直
pushing at and bouncing off a level of interest, until either the defend­
到防守方或攻击方放弃。
ers or the attackers throw in the towel.
累积
累积
累积
/
IeZ�VV\M�\I
--I �I
1\
buildup
累积
累积
Figure
2.2. Double-pressure pops after buildup.
图
2.2. 在积累后出现的双压力反弹。
While each buildup cluster has a bull and a bear side, in the vast ma­
虽然每个积累集群都有牛市和熊市两面，但在绝大多数可交易的情况下，只有
jority
of tradable cases only one will qualify for trading purposes. It
一面会符合交易目的。值得注意的是，这一面通常是最明确的，这进一步增强
is
interesting to note also that this side is generally the most defined,
了突破前的紧张感。然而，在"非突破"一侧，价格走势仍然可以发出非常明显
which stands to build up the pre-breakout tension even more. At the
的信号，这也可以在突破时机上发挥作用。
"non-break" side, however, the price action can still send out very telling
signals and this, too, can play a role in the timing of the break.
When it comes to taking position, the break of a specific bar in a
在入场时，特定条形图的突破可能会触发市场的入场，但这从来不是一个
buildup
progression could trigger an entry in the market, but this is
独立事件；总是有更多的参数需要考虑。要在适当的背景下判断任何情况，扎
never a standalone event; there are always more parameters to take into
实的价格行为原则理解是必不可少的。
account. To judge any situation in its proper light, a solid understand­
ing of price action principles is essential.
Support and Resistance
支撑与阻力
In
mainstream Technical Analysis, the concept of support and resis­
在主流技术分析中，支撑与阻力的概念无疑是所有价格技术现象中的祖师爷。一
tance is by far the granddaddy of all price technical phenomena. The
般来说，图表中价格曾经反弹的水平在未来某个阶段可能会再次显示出其韧性，
general idea is that the levels in the chart from where prices previously
但最终会被突破。找到这一观察结果的价值几乎不需要太多的图表经验。
bounced may prove their resilience again at a later stage, but will be
broken at some point. It takes little charting experience to find merit
within this observation.
8
Chapter 2
Price Aaion Principles-Theory
An interesting side-effect of support and resistance is that when
these "barrier levels" are eventually overcome, their earlier significance
is not necessarily lost. Once broken, these levels often reverse their ini­
tial roles, meaning that former support may now turn into resistance
when touched from below, and resistance, once broken topside, may
act as support when touched from above. This, too, is a highly visible
technical phenomenon and it is not hard to imagine how countless
strategies are solely designed to exploit it.
Despite their prominent role in the price action, however, it is best
to entertain a neutral view on all these peaks and troughs and use
them mainly as a source of information. The novice in particular is not
recommended to adopt the aggressive contrarian approach of shorting
former highs and buying former lows in anticipation of these levels to
hold up; nor is he advised to blindly long new highs or short new lows
in anticipation of these breaks to follow through.
Rather than acting on support and resistance straightaway, whether
for a break or a bounce, the conservative practice is to first monitor how
the market handles itself in and around these levels, and then take it
from there. For example, the perforation of a former high is likely to
have more of an impact when the level gets taken out as a result of a
tug-o-war progression beneath it (buildup). Much less so when prices
come up from lower levels and then go straight on to clear the former
high-these type of breaks are known to backfire quite painfully. As to
the latter, it is vital to realize that there are numerous parties in the
market whose favorite game is not to trade but to counter the break,
particularly those set poorly.
Support and resistance levels can serve many purposes, but their
biggest virtue is that we can derive from their presence an idea on the
dominant party in the chart. This is valuable information; not only will
it point us in the proper direction for our trades, it will tell us also which
side of the market to shun. For we shouldn't trade against dominance.
A very effective way to identify the dominant party is to simply follow
the overall slope of the market. When a chart is dominated by the bulls,
even modestly, prices will make new highs on the whole and the bearish
corrections along the way will have a hard time surpassing former lows.
9
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Aaion Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
An interesting side-effect of support and resistance is that when
支撑与阻力的一个有趣副作用是，当这些“障碍水平”最终被突破时，它们早
these "barrier levels" are eventually overcome, their earlier significance
期的重要性并不一定会丧失。一旦被突破，这些水平往往会反转其初始角色，
is
not necessarily lost. Once broken, these levels often reverse their ini­
这意味着以前的支撑在从下方触及时可能会变成阻力，而一旦从上方突破的阻
tial
roles, meaning that former support may now turn into resistance
力在触及时可能会作为支撑。这也是一种高度可见的技术现象，想象一下无数
when touched from below, and resistance, once broken topside, may
策略专门设计来利用这一点并不困难。
act as support when touched from above. This, too, is a highly visible
technical phenomenon and it is not hard to imagine how countless
strategies are solely designed to exploit it.
Despite their prominent role in the price action, however, it is best
尽管它们在价格走势中扮演着重要角色，但最好对所有这些高峰和低谷保
to
entertain a neutral view on all these peaks and troughs and use
持中立的看法，并主要将其作为信息来源。特别是对于新手，不建议采取激进
them mainly as a source of information. The novice in particular is not
的逆向策略，去做空以前的高点和买入以前的低点，期待这些水平能够维持；
recommended to adopt the aggressive contrarian approach of shorting
也不建议盲目地在新高时做多或在新低时做空，期待这些突破能够持续下去。
former highs and buying former lows in anticipation of these levels to
hold up; nor is he advised to blindly long new highs or short new lows
in anticipation of these breaks to follow through.
Rather than acting on support and resistance straightaway, whether
与其立即对支撑和阻力采取行动，无论是突破还是反弹，保守的做法是首先
for a break or a bounce, the conservative practice is to first monitor how
观察市场在这些水平附近的表现，然后再做决定。例如，突破以前的高点可能
the market handles itself in and around these levels, and then take it
会在该水平被突破时产生更大的影响，尤其是当其是在其下方经过拉锯战的积
from there. For example, the perforation of a former high is likely to
累后突破时。相反，当价格从较低水平上升并直接突破以前的高点时，这种突
have more of an impact when the level gets taken out as a result of a
破的效果往往会大打折扣。至于后者，重要的是要意识到市场中有许多参与者
tug-o-war progression beneath it (buildup). Much less so when prices
，他们的主要游戏不是交易，而是反向突破，尤其是那些设置不当的参与者。
come up from lower levels and then go straight on to clear the former
high-these type of breaks are known to backfire quite painfully. As to
the latter, it is vital to realize that there are numerous parties in the
market whose favorite game is not to trade but to counter the break,
particularly those set poorly.
Support and resistance levels can serve many purposes, but their
支撑和阻力水平可以发挥多种作用，但它们最大的优点在于我们可以从它
biggest
virtue is that we can derive from their presence an idea on the
们的存在中推断出图表中主导方的情况。这是有价值的信息；不仅会指引我们
dominant party in the chart. This is valuable information; not only will
进行正确的交易，还会告诉我们应该避免市场的哪一方。因为我们不应该与主
it point us in the proper direction for our trades, it will tell us also which
导方对抗。识别主导方的一个非常有效的方法是简单地跟随市场的整体趋势。
side of the market to shun. For we shouldn't trade against dominance.
当图表被多头主导时，即使是适度的，价格整体上会创出新高，而沿途的空头
A very effective way to identify the dominant party is to simply follow
回调将很难超过之前的低点。
the overall slope of the market. When a chart is dominated by the bulls,
even modestly, prices will make new highs on the whole and the bearish
corrections along the way will have a hard time surpassing former lows.
9
Understanding Price Action
And even when prices start to falter in the higher region of the chart,
bulls are technically still in control as long as they manage to keep the
market up in levels higher than or equal to a former significant low.
Inevitably, at some point the ruling party will run out of ammo and
as a result they may no longer be able to recoup so well from whatever
setbacks they are forced to incur. This could be a sign of a power shift
ahead. But the stronger the earlier dominance, the less likely the mar­
ket will turn on any first reversal attempt.
\
(
situation 2
Figure 2.3. It takes time for a market to roll over. All else equal, the break at point c
provides better odds for bearish follow-through than the one at point a.
Compare the two situations in Figure 2.3. Up until point b, both charts
are identical. The failed bear attack at point a serves to illustrate the
danger of accepting an otherwise reasonable break that is technical­
ly still set against the dominant pressure. Since this break followed a
"classic" topping progression (double top plus lower top), eager bears
may have been tricked into thinking that a turn was at hand. But they
traded in defiance of the bullish dominance, which so far had only
shown signs of waning momentum.
The bear break at point c, in Situation 2, already stands a much
better chance of finding follow-through. The premise behind the better
odds is found in progression b-c, which shows a failure of the bulls to
undo the bear break at a, which, in terms of probability, is now more
likely to inspire bears to play short and bulls to bail out (double pres­
sure). And not unimportant either, contrarians will probably be less
keen on defying this break.
Of course, in the bigger scheme of things, and depending on what­
ever parameters are taken into account, both the break at a and c could
10
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
And even when prices start to falter in the higher region of the chart,
即使当价格在图表的高位开始动摇时，只要多头能够将市场维持在高于或等于
bulls
are technically still in control as long as they manage to keep the
之前重要低点的水平上，他们在技术上仍然处于控制之中。
market up in levels higher than or equal to a former significant low.
Inevitably,
atruling
some
point
the ruling party will run out of ammo and
不可避免地，
party
在某个时刻将耗尽弹药，因此他们可能无法从所遭
as
a result they may no longer be able to recoup so well from whatever
受的挫折中如此顺利地恢复。这可能是权力转移的一个迹象。但是，早期的强
setbacks they are forced to incur. This could be a sign of a power shift
势主导地位越强，市场在任何首次反转尝试时转向的可能性就越小。
ahead. But the stronger the earlier dominance, the less likely the mar­
ket will turn on any first reversal attempt.
2情况
‫دمحم‬
\
(
ba1情
situation 2
况 ‫حم‬
‫دم‬
Figure
2.3. It takes time for a market to roll over. All elsec 的突破提供了比点
equal, the break at
point c
图
2.3。市场需要时间来翻转。在其他条件相同的情况下，点
a 更好的
provides better odds for bearish follow-through than the one at point a.
看跌跟进的机会。
Compare the two situations in Figure 2.3. Up until point b, both charts
比较图2.3中的两种情况。在b点之前，两张图表是相同的。在a点的失败熊市攻
are identical. The failed bear attack at point a serves to illustrate the
击说明了接受一个合理的突破的危险，而这个突破在技术上仍然是反对主导压
danger of accepting an otherwise reasonable break that is technical­
力的。由于这个突破遵循了一个“经典”的顶部进程（双顶加上下顶），急于做
ly still set against the dominant pressure. Since this break followed a
空的投资者可能被误导，以为转折即将到来。但他们在反抗牛市主导的情况下
"classic" topping progression (double top plus lower top), eager bears
进行交易，而牛市主导至今只显示出动能减弱的迹象。
may have been tricked into thinking that a turn was at hand. But they
traded in defiance of the bullish dominance, which so far had only
shown signs of waning momentum.
The bear break at point c, in Situation 2, already stands a much
在情况2中，c点的熊市突破已经有了更好的跟进机会。更好的概率基础在
better
chance of finding follow-through. The premise behind the better
于b-c的进程，这表明牛市未能扭转a点的熊市突破，从概率上看，这现在更可
odds is found in progression b-c, which shows a failure of the bulls to
能激励做空的投资者入场，而牛市则可能选择退出（双重压力）。而且，值得
undo
the bear break at a, which, in terms of probability, is now more
注意的是，逆势交易者可能不太愿意反抗这一突破。
likely to inspire bears to play short and bulls to bail out (double pres­
sure). And not unimportant either, contrarians will probably be less
keen on defying this break.
Of course, in the bigger scheme of things, and depending on what­
当然，从更大的角度来看，并且取决于考虑哪些参数，a点和c点的突破都可能
ever parameters are taken into account, both the break at a and c could
是不利的；
10
Chapter 2
Price Aaion Principles-Theory
be unfavorable; and even the break at a may have been playable, why
not: but when compared among themselves, trading the break at point
c is definitely the better bet, simply because there is now more informa­
tion available that favors the bearish cause.
Identifying the dominant pressure correctly is paramount in any
breakout method. Aspiring traders in particular should either trade
in line with this pressure, or take position from a neutral base whose
break is likely to promote a new dominant order; but they are well ad­
vised not to defy whatever dominance is in place.
This is not to suggest that trading against dominance is considered
an inferior proposition, most certainly not. But before going this more
aggressive, contrarian route, it really is recommended to learn to trade
confidently and profitably in line with the pressure first.
Contrarian tactics do deserve our utmost attention, though, if only
for the fact that the extent of counterpressure will play a crucial role in
the failure or success of a breakout. The more we come to understand
the favorite game of our opponents, the sooner we will be able to recog­
nize a poisonous break on offer. All this will be taken up as we march
along. Some of these counterbreak tactics may even strike a pleasant
chord with the reader, and they can always be implemented at some
future point.
False Breaks, Tease Breaks and Proper Breaks
Even when set in line with the current dominant pressure, there are
basically three ways for the market to go about a break: terribly, poorly
or properly. Before we take up the differences, allow me to once again
stress that one crucial concept that is so vital to grasp: as much as
trading breakouts is a favorite pastime among many participants in the
market, equally popular is the contrarian game, which harbors within
it the exact opposite line of thought: contrarians take pride in position­
ing themselves against the event. At first this may seem odd; out of all
the possible places to take a counter position, why pick a break and
risk getting trampled on by a potential double-pressure stampede? The
/I
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Aaion Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
be unfavorable; and even the break at a may have been playable, why
甚至a点的突破也可能是可操作的，为什么不呢？但是，当它们相互比较时，交易c
not:
but when compared among themselves, trading the break at point
点的突破绝对是更好的选择，仅仅是因为现在有更多信息支持看跌的原因。
c is definitely the better bet, simply because there is now more informa­
tion available that favors the bearish cause.
Identifying the dominant pressure correctly is paramount in any
正确识别主导压力在任何突破方法中都至关重要。尤其是那些有抱负的交易
breakout
method. Aspiring traders in particular should either trade
者，应该顺应这种压力进行交易，或者从一个中立的基础开始建仓，这个基础
in
line with this pressure, or take position from a neutral base whose
的突破很可能会促进一个新的主导秩序；但他们最好不要违抗任何已经存在的
break
is likely to promote a new dominant order; but they are well ad­
支配地位。
vised not to defy whatever dominance is in place.
This is not to suggest that trading against dominance is considered
这并不是说与主导趋势相对的交易被认为是一种低劣的选择，绝对不是。
an
inferior proposition, most certainly not. But before going this more
但在采取这种更激进的逆向策略之前，确实建议先学习如何自信且盈利地顺
aggressive, contrarian route, it really is recommended to learn to trade
应市场压力进行交易。
confidently and profitably in line with the pressure first.
Contrarian tactics do deserve our utmost attention, though, if only
然而，逆向策略确实值得我们高度关注，至少因为反向压力的程度将在突破
for the fact that the extent of counterpressure will play a crucial role in
的失败或成功中发挥关键作用。我们越是了解对手的游戏，越能早日识别出有
the failure or success of a breakout. The more we come to understand
毒的突破机会。所有这些内容将在我们前进的过程中逐步展开。其中一些反向
the favorite game of our opponents, the sooner we will be able to recog­
突破策略甚至可能会与读者产生愉快的共鸣，并且可以在未来的某个时刻实施
nize a poisonous break on offer. All this will be taken up as we march
。
along. Some of these counterbreak tactics may even strike a pleasant
chord with the reader, and they can always be implemented at some
future point.
False
Breaks, Tease Breaks and Proper Breaks
虚假突破、诱惑突破和正确突破
Even when set in line with the current dominant pressure, there are
即使在与当前主导压力保持一致的情况下，市场在突破时基本上有三种方式：
basically
three ways for the market to go about a break: terribly, poorly
糟糕、差劲或良好。在我们讨论这些差异之前，请允许我再次强调一个至关重
or properly. Before we take up the differences, allow me to once again
要的概念：尽管交易突破是市场中许多参与者的最爱，但同样受欢迎的是逆向
stress that one crucial concept that is so vital to grasp: as much as
游戏，它蕴含着完全相反的思维方式：逆向者以与事件对立的方式进行定位。
trading
breakouts is a favorite pastime among many participants in the
乍一看，这似乎很奇怪；在所有可能的反向位置中，为什么选择突破并冒着被
market,
equally popular is the contrarian game, which harbors within
潜在的双重压力冲击踩踏的风险？
it the exact opposite line of thought: contrarians take pride in position­
ing themselves against the event. At first this may seem odd; out of all
the possible places to take a counter position, why pick a break and
risk getting trampled on by a potential double-pressure stampede? The
/I
Understanding Price Action
answer is not hard to guess: the contrarian anticipates the breakout to
fail.
Contrarian tactics are certainly not for everyone, for the dangers
within them are evident. However, we can rest assured that there are
many parties in the market who have mastered the art of the counter­
strike to perfection. It is what they do all day long. And it is not just
the typical break they tend to bully; with equal pleasure they take their
shots at a rising or falling market by shorting or buying whatever comes
towards them.
With powerful enemies always on the prowl, we cannot afford to only
concentrate on the bright side of our trading ideas-the likelihood of
opposition demands equal attention. But let us not forget that the con­
trarian, too, needs to carefully weigh his prospects before taking his
chances on defying a break, for no party can ever have his way with the
market unchallenged. As we can see, the breakout trader and the con­
trarian may entertain opposing views, their task is essentially the same:
to determine the nature of the break.
If a break is not built up "properly", chances are it will have a hard
time convincing the bulk of breakout traders that the event is for real.
Not seldom, a lack of participation immediately becomes evident when
the same bar that caused the break instantly reverses-a nasty little
oops-moment for all those who traded it. At other times, we may see
prices follow through a bit, only to then peter out and undo the break
after all. Regardless of how these things play out in the situation at
hand, a poorly set break stands a high chance of failure simply because
many breakout traders will not deem the odds good enough to trade the
event for continuation, while at the same time plenty of contrarians may
be tempted to trade the break for failure.
Also, when confronted with a faltering break, parties positioned in
line with it, from whatever earlier level, may decide to exchange their
holdings for the safety of the sidelines, thereby further increasing the
pressure against the break-and with it, the odds for its failure. Of
course, not always will a poor break resolve itself in favor of the contrar­
ian cause, or we might as well become contrarians ourselves. But any
chart will show that the dreaded false break is not a rarity by any means.
12
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
答案并不难猜：逆向者预期突破会失败。
answer is not hard to guess: the contrarian anticipates the breakout to
fail.
逆向策略显然并不适合每个人，因为其中的危险显而易见。然而，我们可以放
Contrarian tactics are certainly not for everyone, for the dangers
within them are evident. However, we can rest assured that there are
心的是，市场上有许多参与者已经将反击的艺术掌握得淋漓尽致。这是他们整天所
many parties in the market who have mastered the art of the counter­
做的事情。他们不仅仅针对典型的突破进行打压；同样，他们也乐于在上涨或下跌
strike
to perfection. It is what they do all day long. And it is not just
的市场中通过做空或买入来进行反击。
the typical break they tend to bully; with equal pleasure they take their
shots at a rising or falling market by shorting or buying whatever comes
towards them.
With powerful enemies always on the prowl, we cannot afford to only
面对强大的敌人，我们不能只关注交易想法的光明面——反对的可能性同样
concentrate on the bright side of our trading ideas-the likelihood of
需要我们给予关注。但我们也不能忘记，逆势者在挑战突破之前也需要仔细权衡
opposition demands equal attention. But let us not forget that the con­
自己的前景，因为没有一方能够在市场上毫无挑战地随心所欲。正如我们所看到
trarian, too, needs to carefully weigh his prospects before taking his
的，突破交易者和逆势者可能持有相反的观点，但他们的任务本质上是相同的：
chances on defying a break, for no party can ever have his way with the
确定突破的性质。
market unchallenged. As we can see, the breakout trader and the con­
trarian may entertain opposing views, their task is essentially the same:
to determine the nature of the break.
If a break is not built up "properly", chances are it will have a hard
如果一个突破没有“正确”建立，那么它很可能会很难说服大多数突破交易者
time convincing the bulk of breakout traders that the event is for real.
相信这一事件是真实的。往往，当导致突破的同一根K线立即反转时，缺乏参与
Not seldom, a lack of participation immediately becomes evident when
感就会显而易见——对于所有交易这一事件的人来说，这都是一个令人不快的
the same bar that caused the break instantly reverses-a nasty little
小失误。在其他时候，我们可能会看到价格稍微跟随一段时间，然后又逐渐减
oops-moment for all those who traded it. At other times, we may see
弱，最终撤销突破。无论这些情况在当前情况下如何发展，设置不当的突破失
prices
follow through a bit, only to then peter out and undo the break
败的几率很高，因为许多突破交易者不会认为交易该事件以继续的概率足够好
after all. Regardless of how these things play out in the situation at
，同时许多逆势者可能会被诱惑去交易突破以期失败。
hand, a poorly set break stands a high chance of failure simply because
many breakout traders will not deem the odds good enough to trade the
event for continuation, while at the same time plenty of contrarians may
be tempted to trade the break for failure.
Also, when confronted with a faltering break, parties positioned in
此外，当面临一个疲软的突破时，处于其旁边的各方，可能会决定将其持
line
with it, from whatever earlier level, may decide to exchange their
有的资产转移到安全的边缘，从而进一步加大对突破的压力——也因此增加了
holdings for the safety of the sidelines, thereby further increasing the
其失败的几率。当然，并不是每次糟糕的突破都会朝着反向投资者的方向发展
pressure against the break-and with it, the odds for its failure. Of
，否则我们也可以成为反向投资者。但任何图表都会显示，令人畏惧的虚假突
course, not always will a poor break resolve itself in favor of the contrar­
破并不是罕见的现象。
ian cause, or we might as well become contrarians ourselves. But any
chart will show that the dreaded false break is not a rarity by any means.
12
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
Before we go on to examine the favorable scenario, it may help to first
look at some situations to avoid. There are two type of breakouts that
should at least come across as highly suspect. The most obvious one
we will refer to as the false break trap; the second type, less malign but
still very much to shun, we can look upon as the tease break trap. Bear
in mind, it is never the outcome that determines these labels, it is the
way the breaks are set when they occur. In other words, it is very well
possible that an excellent break will find no follow-through whatsoever,
whereas a terrible break might take off and never look back. In terms of
probability, the outcomes are sooner reversed.
Whether or not to take position on a break is always a function of
how well the technical credentials of the chart back up the prospects for
follow-through. At least three things demand examination in all situa­
tions: (a) is the break set in line with the dominant pressure or against
it; (b) is the market ranging or trending; (c) are there obstacles overhead
or underfoot that could possibly obstruct an advance or decline.
While these are the core essentials that will determine whether the
chart conditions speak favorably of the venture (we will discuss their
particulars in more detail along the way), they do not warrant participa­
tion by themselves. Always a mandatory routine before taking position
on any type of break is to assess the way the market behaved just prior
to the event. If we don't find buildup there, the offer is best declined.
Consider the three situations in Figure 2.4. All else equal and as­
suming the short entries at e were all technically sound in regard to the
dominant pressure, these situations perfectly illustrate the principle of
the false break trap, the tease break trap and the proper break respec­
tively.
13
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
Before we go on to examine the favorable scenario, it may help to first
在我们继续研究有利的情景之前，首先看看一些应避免的情况可能会有所帮
look at some situations to avoid. There are two type of breakouts that
助。有两种类型的突破至少应该被视为高度可疑。我们将最明显的一种称为虚
should at least come across as highly suspect. The most obvious one
假突破陷阱；第二种类型，虽然不那么恶性，但仍然非常值得避免，我们可以
we will refer to as the false break trap; the second type, less malign but
将其视为诱惑突破陷阱。请记住，决定这些标签的从来不是结果，而是突破发
still
very much to shun, we can look upon as the tease break trap. Bear
生时的设置方式。换句话说，一个优秀的突破可能根本没有后续，而一个糟糕
in
mind, it is never the outcome that determines these labels, it is the
的突破可能会起飞并永不回头。在概率方面，结果往往是相反的。
way the breaks are set when they occur. In other words, it is very well
possible that an excellent break will find no follow-through whatsoever,
whereas a terrible break might take off and never look back. In terms of
probability, the outcomes are sooner reversed.
Whether or not to take position on a break is always a function of
在突破时是否采取仓位始终取决于图表的技术条件如何支持后续发展的前
how well the technical credentials of the chart back up the prospects for
景。在所有情况下，至少有三件事情需要检查：（a）突破是与主导压力一致
follow-through. At least three things demand examination in all situa­
还是相反；（b）市场是区间震荡还是趋势；（c）是否有可能阻碍上涨或下跌
tions:
(a) is the break set in line with the dominant pressure or against
的障碍。
it; (b) is the market ranging or trending; (c) are there obstacles overhead
or underfoot that could possibly obstruct an advance or decline.
While these are the core essentials that will determine whether the
虽然这些是决定图表条件是否有利于投资的核心要素（我们将在后续详细讨
chart
conditions speak favorably of the venture (we will discuss their
论它们的具体情况），但它们本身并不保证参与。在任何类型的突破之前，进行
particulars
in more detail along the way), they do not warrant participa­
评估市场在事件发生前的表现是一个强制性的例行程序。如果我们没有发现前
tion by themselves. Always a mandatory routine before taking position
期的积累，最好拒绝这个机会。
on any type of break is to assess the way the market behaved just prior
to the event. If we don't find buildup there, the offer is best declined.
Consider the three situations in Figure 2.4. All else equal and as­
考虑图2.4中的三种情况。在其他条件相同的情况下，假设在e处的短线条在
suming the short entries at e were all technically sound in regard to the
主导压力方面都是技术上合理的，这些情况完美地说明了假突破陷阱、诱惑突
dominant pressure, these situations perfectly illustrate the principle of
破陷阱和正确突破的原则。
the false break trap, the tease break trap and the proper break respec­
tively.
13
Understanding Price Action
stoP?
W'\'eJ I �j�
j U\l\il
I
situation 1
�
situation 2
situation 3
\
Figure 2.4. Difference in buildup prior to a breakout not only affects the likelihood of
follow-through, but the level for protection as well.
Earlier on we stressed the importance of buildup and how it tends to
play a determining role in the success or failure of a break. The premise
behind this principle is not hard to grasp: the stronger we see a level
defended before it yields, the more dominance displayed by the ultimate
victors. But there is another good reason why the absence of buildup
tends to compromise the follow-through potential on a break. It con­
cerns the placement of the protective stop.
On any wager, the level for protection plays a major part in the total
concept of a trade. You simply cannot enter the market without a sound
idea of when to get out in case prices fail to follow through. In all cases,
there is a point of no return beyond which a trade has lost validity and
needs to be scratched. Obviously, there are no hard and fast rules on
the matter and all will depend on strategy specifics and a trader's per­
sonal perception of the situation at hand. But let us try to shed some
light on the entry/stop issue by examining a very common technique
that should not raise too many eyebrows as to its technical merit; in
case of a short position, it is to place the stop somewhere above the last
distinctive high prior to entry.
If we apply this tactic to the three situations in Figure 2.4, the dif­
ferences are evident. All entries were taken at point e, but the levels for
protection ranged from wide to tight.
Without discarding the benefits of a "wide" stop per se, we can gen­
erally state the following: the wider a stop needs to be placed to find
technical justification, the less attractive the breakout becomes from a
continuation perspective, and the more attractive when seen through
contrarian eyes. (Situation 1).
14
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
stoP?
停止？
W'\'eJ I �j�
j U\l\il
我们有 stop?有P
I
situation
1
情况
1
停止
�
situation
2
情况
2
situation
3
情况
3
\
Figure
2.4. Difference in buildup prior to a breakout not only affects the likelihood of
图
2.4. 在突破之前的积累差异不仅影响随后的跟进可能性，还影响保护水平。
follow-through, but the level for protection as well.
Earlier on we stressed the importance of buildup and how it tends to
早些时候我们强调了积累的重要性，以及它在突破的成功或失败中往往起到决
play a determining role in the success or failure of a break. The premise
定性作用。这个原则的前提并不难理解：我们看到一个水平在被突破之前被强
behind
this principle is not hard to grasp: the stronger we see a level
力捍卫，最终胜利者所表现出的主导性越强。但没有积累的情况下，往往会妨
defended before it yields, the more dominance displayed by the ultimate
碍突破的跟进潜力，这还有另一个很好的理由。这与保护止损的设置有关。
victors. But there is another good reason why the absence of buildup
tends to compromise the follow-through potential on a break. It con­
cerns the placement of the protective stop.
On any wager, the level for protection plays a major part in the total
在任何交易中，保护水平在整个交易概念中起着重要作用。你不能在没有明
concept of a trade. You simply cannot enter the market without a sound
确的想法的情况下进入市场，以防价格未能跟进而需要退出。在所有情况下，
idea of when to get out in case prices fail to follow through. In all cases,
都有一个不可逆转的点，超过这个点，交易失去有效性，需要被取消。显然，
there is a point of no return beyond which a trade has lost validity and
这方面没有硬性规则，所有这些都将取决于策略的具体情况和交易者对当前情
needs to be scratched. Obviously, there are no hard and fast rules on
况的个人看法。但让我们试着通过检查一种非常常见的技术来阐明入场/止损问
the matter and all will depend on strategy specifics and a trader's per­
题，这种技术在技术上应该不会引起太多的质疑；在做空的情况下，就是将止
sonal
perception of the situation at hand. But let us try to shed some
损设置在入场前最后一个明显高点的上方。
light on the entry/stop issue by examining a very common technique
that should not raise too many eyebrows as to its technical merit; in
case of a short position, it is to place the stop somewhere above the last
distinctive high prior to entry.
If we apply this tactic to the three situations in Figure 2.4, the dif­
如果我们将这种策略应用于图2.4中的三种情况，差异就显而易见了。所有
ferences are evident. All entries were taken at point e, but the levels for
条目都是在点e处记录的，但保护水平从宽到紧不等。
protection ranged from wide to tight.
在不否定"宽"止损本身的好处的情况下，我们可以一般性地陈述以下观点：
Without discarding the benefits of a "wide" stop per se, we can gen­
erally state the following: the wider a stop needs to be placed to find
止损需要放置得越宽以找到技术依据，从持续性角度来看，突破的吸引力就越
technical justification, the less attractive the breakout becomes from a
低，而从逆向角度来看则越具吸引力。（情况1）。
continuation perspective, and the more attractive when seen through
contrarian eyes. (Situation 1).
14
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
For further explanation, let us examine the tease break scenario in
Situation 2. Here the bears were offered a somewhat better entry and
a better technical level to protect themselves also. Still, the buildup left
a lot to be desired since it did not really take place at the bottom bar­
rier of the range progression; the level for protection, too, resided quite
some distance away from entry. This type of break is likely to attract
more sideline bears than the one on the left, but it still provides decent
opportunity from a contrarian point of view.
On balance, breaks of the tease break variety (and we will see many
of them) do stand a pretty good chance to follow through, but they may
not do so straightaway. Hence the idea of a tease. As seen in Situation
2, a typical response of the market is to first counter the break in an
attempt to undo it; but as prices move back inside the range, they may
then hit upon the lows of whatever buildup lies higher up. From such
an area of resistance (former support), prices may edge down again and
even go on to break the bottom barrier successfully second time around.
All of this could play out in any number of ways and in some situa­
tions a stop may get hit and in others, it may survive. The point is that
the tease breakout, despite being less premature than the very poor
break, still poses a big threat to anyone playing the market with a tight
stop. Since a tight stop will be a key feature within our operating tactics,
to be discussed in Chapter 5, our focus is best directed towards the
breakouts of top-notch qUality.
An excellent way to play a break is shown in Situation 3. Now we
can truly see the virtues of proper buildup. Not only did this break
stem from a bamer fight, with bears coming out on top, a breakout
trader could now place a stop tightly above the buildup progression. The
breakout may still fail soon after, but technically seen, this is the more
favorable scenario.
Pleasant here also is that the principle of support and resistance
may help out once again should prices at some point travel back up to
challenge the broken barrier from below (common practice). Now rep­
resenting both the bottom of the broken range and the bottom of the
latest buildup, the barrier stands a much better chance to fend off the
contrarian bulls on impact; furthermore, bulls in position could grab
15
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
For further explanation, let us examine the tease break scenario in
为了进一步解释，让我们检查情况2中的诱饵突破场景。在这里，空头们获
Situation
2. Here the bears were offered a somewhat better entry and
得了一个相对更好的入场机会和一个更好的技术保护水平。然而，积累的情况
a better technical level to protect themselves also. Still, the buildup left
并不理想，因为它并没有真正发生在区间进程的底部障碍上；保护水平也与入
a lot to be desired since it did not really take place at the bottom bar­
场相距甚远。这种类型的突破可能会吸引更多的旁观空头，但从逆向的角度来
rier
of the range progression; the level for protection, too, resided quite
看，它仍然提供了不错的机会。
some distance away from entry. This type of break is likely to attract
more sideline bears than the one on the left, but it still provides decent
opportunity from a contrarian point of view.
On
balance, breaks of the tease break variety (and we will see many
总体而言，突破的诱惑类型（我们将看到许多这样的情况）确实有相当好
of
them)
do stand a pretty good chance to follow through, but they may
的机会能够持续下去，但它们可能不会立即如此。因此，诱惑的概念。如情
not do so straightaway. Hence the idea of a tease. As seen in Situation
况2所示，市场的典型反应是首先反击突破，试图扭转这一局面；但随着价格
2, a typical response of the market is to first counter the break in an
回到区间内，它们可能会触及更高位置的任何积累的低点。在这样的阻力区
attempt
to undo it; but as prices move back inside the range, they may
域（前支撑）中，价格可能会再次下滑，甚至可能在第二次成功突破底部障
then hit upon the lows of whatever buildup lies higher up. From such
碍。所有这些情况可能以多种方式展开，在某些情况下，止损可能会被触发
an area of resistance (former support), prices may edge down again and
，而在其他情况下，它可能会幸存下来。关键在于，尽管诱惑突破比非常糟
even go on to break the bottom barrier successfully second time around.
糕的突破更不那么仓促，但对于任何在市场上使用紧止损的人来说，仍然构
All of this could play out in any number of ways and in some situa­
成了很大的威胁。由于紧止损将是我们操作策略中的一个关键特征，正如
tions
a stop may get hit and in others, it may survive. The point is that
第5章将讨论的那样，我们的重点最好集中在高质量的突破上。
the tease breakout, despite being less premature than the very poor
break, still poses a big threat to anyone playing the market with a tight
stop. Since a tight stop will be a key feature within our operating tactics,
to be discussed in Chapter 5, our focus is best directed towards the
breakouts of top-notch qUality.
An excellent way to play a break is shown in Situation 3. Now we
在情况3中展示了一种出色的突破方式。现在我们可以真正看到适当构建的优
can truly see the virtues of proper buildup. Not only did this break
点。这一突破不仅源于一个障碍战斗，且熊方占据了上风，突破交易者现在可以
stem from a bamer fight, with bears coming out on top, a breakout
将止损设置在构建进程的上方。尽管突破可能在不久后失败，但从技术上看，这
trader
could now place a stop tightly above the buildup progression. The
是一种更有利的情景。
breakout may still fail soon after, but technically seen, this is the more
favorable scenario.
Pleasant here also is that the principle of support and resistance
令人愉快的是，支撑和阻力的原则可能再次提供帮助，如果价格在某个时点
may
help out once again should prices at some point travel back up to
回升并从下方挑战被打破的障碍（常见做法）。现在代表着被打破区间的底部
challenge
the broken barrier from below (common practice). Now rep­
和最新构建的底部，这个障碍在冲击时更有可能抵挡住反向牛市的攻击；此外
resenting
both the bottom of the broken range and the bottom of the
，处于有利位置的牛市可以抓住
latest buildup, the barrier stands a much better chance to fend off the
contrarian bulls on impact; furthermore, bulls in position could grab
15
Understanding Price Action
the opportunity to quickly sell out, while empty-handed bears could
make excellent use of the pullback to hop on the bandwagon in second
instance. That implies double pressure on the sell side again.
As we can see, a breakout not only involves a broken level, there are
quite a few variables, forces and perceptions at work and all need to be
taken into account when assessing the odds. The most important mes­
sage to take away from the above is to simply avoid all breaks that are
not built up solidly.
On the good side, plenty of breaks are set so poorly that they are
easy to dodge by anyone with just a basic understanding of break play
tactics. A non-buildup break as discussed in Situation 1, for example,
is one such event that is best left alone. As to the line between a tease
break variant and a proper break, in all fairness, it can be rather thin at
times. We best take up these differences in more detail once we start to
do our analysis on the 5-minute charts.
False Highs and Lows
When a bar takes out a high or low of a neighboring bar, we can refer
to the current bar as a breakout bar. If a subsequent bar takes out the
breakout bar in the same direction, this new bar is now the break­
out bar, and so on. Always more interesting than the mere occurrence
of a break, though, is to find out how the market handles the event.
For example, a bull break followed by bull break is a sign of follow­
through and thus an indication of bullish enthusiasm, for as long as it
lasts. Should we see the market respond to a bull break with a bearish
bar and this bar then gets broken at the bottom by another, that gives
us valuable information also: technically seen, we are dealing with a
false high. It is considered false because the bull break failed to follow
through and was followed by a bear break in turn.
When compared to the failed breakout of a carefully built up pattern,
the failed breakout of a single bar is usually of less significance-but
it is a false break nonetheless. To minimize confusion, in most cases
we will refer to the pattern break failures as false breaks (usually more
16
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
the opportunity to quickly sell out, while empty-handed bears could
快速卖出的机会，而空手的熊市则可以利用回调在第二次机会中加入队伍。这
make excellent use of the pullback to hop on the bandwagon in second
意味着再次对卖方施加双重压力。
instance. That implies double pressure on the sell side again.
As we can see, a breakout not only involves a broken level, there are
正如我们所看到的，突破不仅涉及一个被打破的水平，还有许多变量、力量
quite
a few variables, forces and perceptions at work and all need to be
和感知在起作用，所有这些都需要在评估概率时考虑。最重要的信息是，简单
taken into account when assessing the odds. The most important mes­
地避免所有没有坚实基础的突破。
sage to take away from the above is to simply avoid all breaks that are
not built up solidly.
On the good side, plenty of breaks are set so poorly that they are
从好的方面来看，许多突破设置得很糟糕，以至于任何对突破战术有基本理
easy to dodge by anyone with just a basic understanding of break play
解的人都能轻松躲避。例如，情况1中讨论的非积累突破就是一个最好避开的事
tactics. A non-buildup break as discussed in Situation 1, for example,
件。至于诱导突破变体和真正突破之间的界限，公平地说，有时它可能相当微
is one such event that is best left alone. As to the line between a tease
薄。我们最好在开始分析5分钟图表时更详细地讨论这些差异。
break variant and a proper break, in all fairness, it can be rather thin at
times. We best take up these differences in more detail once we start to
do our analysis on the 5-minute charts.
False Highs and Lows
虚假高点和低点
When a bar takes out a high or low of a neighboring bar, we can refer
当一根柱子突破了邻近柱子的高点或低点时，我们可以称当前柱子为突破柱。如
to the current bar as a breakout bar. If a subsequent bar takes out the
果随后的柱子在同一方向上突破了突破柱，那么这根新柱子现在就是突破柱，依
breakout bar in the same direction, this new bar is now the break­
此类推。然而，比单纯的突破事件更有趣的是，了解市场如何处理这一事件。例
out bar, and so on. Always more interesting than the mere occurrence
如，牛市突破后又出现牛市突破，表明有跟进的迹象，因此是牛市热情的指示，
of a break, though, is to find out how the market handles the event.
只要这种情况持续下去。如果我们看到市场对牛市突破作出反应，出现了一个熊
For
example, a bull break followed by bull break is a sign of follow­
市柱，并且这根柱子随后又被另一根柱子的底部突破，那么这也给我们提供了有
through
and thus an indication of bullish enthusiasm, for as long as it
价值的信息：从技术上看，我们正在处理一个虚假高点。它被认为是虚假的，因
lasts. Should we see the market respond to a bull break with a bearish
为牛市突破未能跟进，反而被熊市突破所取代。
bar and this bar then gets broken at the bottom by another, that gives
us valuable information also: technically seen, we are dealing with a
false high. It is considered false because the bull break failed to follow
through and was followed by a bear break in turn.
When compared to the failed breakout of a carefully built up pattern,
与精心构建的形态的突破失败相比，单根K线的突破失败通常意义较小——但
the
failed breakout of a single bar is usually of less significance-but
它仍然是一个假突破。为了尽量避免混淆，在大多数情况下，我们会将形态突破
it is a false break nonetheless. To minimize confusion, in most cases
失败称为假突破（通常涉及更多K线），而将单根K线的失败，或突破顶部或底部
we will refer to the pattern break failures as false breaks (usually more
的失败，称为假高或假低。
16
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
bars involved) and to the single bar failures, or failures of a broken top
or bottom, as either a false high or false low.
A false high or low in a trending swing may only reflect a minor hic­
cup in the dominant pressure and as such may have little impact on the
current directional consensus. But when situated at a crucial spot, say,
in a buildup cluster, a false high or low could be a major tell as to the
most likely outcome of the skirmish at hand. Seeing the break at their
end fail, the parties affected adversely may no longer feel so confident re­
maining in position. Should more counterpressure come forth, they may
even decide to bail out of their holdings. So in this respect, a false high
or low could be a harbinger of (double) pressure in the other direction.
To see how this information can be useful, imagine a situation in
which we are anticipating the market to turn bullishly around in an
area of support, and so the idea is to participate in a break on the buy
side; if the price action is currently forming a little cluster of bars going
sideways in a tight span (buildup), wouldn't it be nice to see the bears
first put in a break at the bottom of this cluster, only to get reprimanded
by the bulls. This serves a couple of purposes that may prove beneficial
to the prospects of a bullish turn: (a) seeing the bear break fail, sidelines
bears may take heed and thus decide to stay where they are-out of the
market; (b) bears in position may get the message also and their idea
could be to bail out, if not immediately then possibly on the first bull
break to come along (confinnation of the false low event); (c) at the same
time, a number of sideline bulls will like what they see and their deci­
sion could be to act on the first bull break as well; (d) bulls in position,
some of whom may have been on the brink of selling out their longs,
may now breathe a little easier again (no selling pressure yet from these
parties).
The more we can imagine these favorable forces to work in concert,
the stronger the upside potential.
Understandably, false highs and lows gain in relevance when they
show up at crucial levels in the chart. A false low in support will not eas­
ily go unnoticed, nor will a false high in resistance. To get a better idea
on the mechanics in play, let us explore some hypothetical, yet pretty
common chart situations, as depicted in Figure 2.5.
17
Chapter 2
第二章
Price Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
bars involved) and to the single bar failures, or failures of a broken top
趋势波动中的假高或假低可能只反映了主导压力中的一个小小的失误，因此可能对当前的方向共识影响不大。但当位于关键位置时，例如，在累积集群中，假高或假低可能是一个重要的信号，表明手头冲突最可能的结果。看到他们的突破失败，受到不利影响的各方可能不再对保持仓位那么有信心
or bottom, as either a false high or false low.
。如果出现更多的反向压力，他们甚至可能决定退出他们的持仓。因此，在这方面，假高或假低可能是另一个方向（双重）压力的先兆。
A false high or low in a trending swing may only reflect a minor hic­
趋势波动中的假高或假低可能只反映了主导压力中的一个小小的失误，因此
cup in the dominant pressure and as such may have little impact on the
可能对当前的方向共识影响不大。但当位于关键位置时，例如，在累积集群中，
current directional consensus. But when situated at a crucial spot, say,
假高或假低可能是一个重要的信号，表明手头冲突最可能的结果。看到他们的
in
a buildup cluster, a false high or low could be a major tell as to the
突破失败，受到不利影响的各方可能不再对保持仓位那么有信心。如果出现更
most likely outcome of the skirmish at hand. Seeing the break at their
多的反向压力，他们甚至可能决定退出他们的持仓。因此，在这方面，假高或假
end fail, the parties affected adversely may no longer feel so confident re­
低可能是另一个方向（双重）压力的先兆。
maining in position. Should more counterpressure come forth, they may
even decide to bail out of their holdings. So in this respect, a false high
or low could be a harbinger of (double) pressure in the other direction.
To see how this information can be useful, imagine a situation in
为了了解这些信息如何有用，想象一下我们预期市场将在支撑位附近转向
which we are anticipating the market to turn bullishly around in an
看涨的情况，因此我们的想法是在买方突破时参与；如果当前价格走势在一个
area
of support, and so the idea is to participate in a break on the buy
狭窄的范围内形成一小簇横盘的蜡烛图（积累），那么看到空头首先在这个簇
side;
if the price action is currently forming a little cluster of bars going
的底部突破，然后被多头惩罚，岂不是很好吗？这有几个目的，可能对看涨转
sideways in a tight span (buildup), wouldn't it be nice to see the bears
变的前景有利：（a）看到空头突破失败，场外的空头可能会注意到，因此决
first put in a break at the bottom of this cluster, only to get reprimanded
定继续观望，不再入市；（b）已经持有空头头寸的交易者也会收到这个信号
by the bulls. This serves a couple of purposes that may prove beneficial
，他们的想法可能是退出，如果不是立即退出，那么可能在第一个多头突破出
to the prospects of a bullish turn: (a) seeing the bear break fail, sidelines
现时（确认虚假低点事件）再退出；（c）与此同时，一些场外的多头会喜欢
bears may take heed and thus decide to stay where they are-out of the
他们所看到的，他们的决定可能是在第一个多头突破时采取行动；（d）持有多
market; (b) bears in position may get the message also and their idea
头头寸的交易者中，有些人可能一直在考虑卖出他们的多头头寸，现在可能会
could be to bail out, if not immediately then possibly on the first bull
稍微松一口气（因为这些交易者尚未施加卖压）。
break to come along (confinnation of the false low event); (c) at the same
time, a number of sideline bulls will like what they see and their deci­
sion could be to act on the first bull break as well; (d) bulls in position,
some of whom may have been on the brink of selling out their longs,
may now breathe a little easier again (no selling pressure yet from these
parties).
The more we can imagine these favorable forces to work in concert,
我们越能想象这些有利的力量协同作用，潜在的上行空间就越强。
the stronger the upside potential.
Understandably,
false highs and lows gain in relevance when they
可以理解的是，当虚假的高点和低点出现在图表的关键水平时，它们的相
show
up at crucial levels in the chart. A false low in support will not eas­
关性会增加。支撑位的虚假低点不会轻易被忽视，阻力位的虚假高点也不会
ily
go unnoticed, nor will a false high in resistance. To get a better idea
。为了更好地了解正在发挥作用的机制，让我们探讨一些假设的、但相当常
on
the mechanics in play, let us explore some hypothetical, yet pretty
见的图表情况，如图2.5所示。
common chart situations, as depicted in Figure 2.5.
17
Understanding Price Aaion
4
3
situation 1
situation 2
Figure 2.5. False highs and lows can have a strong demoralizing effect and often
serve to announce a reversal of sorts.
In situation 1, we can regard the market as bullish (higher highs and
higher lows on the whole) and for that reason the failed break at point
1 can be classified as a false high in line with the current directional
pressure. Since all price swings at some point need to correct, a false
high in a top doesn't necessarily portend the end of the bullish envi­
ronment, but it is an indication of waning momentum. From it we can
deduce that there is reluctance among the bulls to buy high up; or at
least we can say that their eagerness is temporarily outmatched by the
volume in the other direction, that of bulls taking profits and bears tak­
ing shorts. In other words, supply is currently toppling demand. But
given the overall bullish conditions, bulls might very well return on the
scene with renewed elan once prices have retraced to more "attractive"
levels. Therefore, the false high at point 1 shows us valuable informa­
tion regarding momentum, but it is not an indication of a major shift in
dominance.
Note: It is essential to grasp that a break in line with dominance is
hardly a guarantee for follow-through. In fact, in many an instance it
produces the exact opposite effect. Savvy contrarians possess excellent
understanding of pressure and momentum and their typical ploy is to
counter whenever they feel a certain move has run its course. But not
seldom they will deliberately refrain from action until the market has
set a new break first-then they will counter. And they will be even more
happy to do so when the break in question is set with little to no buildup
(think false break trap).
As already stated, it is not always the contrarian who comes out on
top in the tricky battle between failure and follow-through. The degree
18
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
4
3
情况
1
situation
1
情况
2
situation
2
图2.5.
虚假的高点和低点可能会产生强烈的打击效果，并且往往会宣布某种反转的到来。
Figure
2.5. False highs and lows can have a strong demoralizing effect and often
serve to announce a reversal of sorts.
In situation 1, we can regard the market as bullish (higher highs and
在情况1中，我们可以将市场视为看涨（整体上高点更高，低点更高），因此在
higher
lows on the whole) and for that reason the failed break at point
点1的失败突破可以被归类为与当前方向压力一致的虚假高点。由于所有价格波
1 can be classified as a false high in line with the current directional
动在某个时刻都需要修正，顶部的虚假高点并不一定预示着看涨环境的结束，
pressure. Since all price swings at some point need to correct, a false
但它是动能减弱的一个迹象。从中我们可以推断出，牛市中买入的意愿在高位上
high
in a top doesn't necessarily portend the end of the bullish envi­
有所犹豫；或者至少我们可以说，他们的热情暂时被另一方的成交量所压制，
ronment, but it is an indication of waning momentum. From it we can
即牛市在获利了结，熊市在做空。换句话说，供给目前正在压倒需求。但考虑到
整体的看涨条件，牛市可能会在价格回调到更“有吸引力”的水平后重新回归。因
deduce that there is reluctance among the bulls to buy high up; or at
least we can say that their eagerness is temporarily outmatched by the
此，点1的虚假高点向我们展示了有关动能的宝贵信息，但它并不意味着主导地
volume in the other direction, that of bulls taking profits and bears tak­
位的重大转变。
ing shorts. In other words, supply is currently toppling demand. But
given the overall bullish conditions, bulls might very well return on the
scene with renewed elan once prices have retraced to more "attractive"
levels. Therefore, the false high at point 1 shows us valuable informa­
tion regarding momentum, but it is not an indication of a major shift in
dominance.
Note: It is essential to grasp that a break in line with dominance is
注意：必须理解，符合主导方向的突破很难保证后续行动。事实上，在很多
hardly
a guarantee for follow-through. In fact, in many an instance it
情况下，它会产生完全相反的效果。精明的逆向投资者非常了解压力和动量，
produces the exact opposite effect. Savvy contrarians possess excellent
他们通常会在感觉某个走势已经结束时进行反击。但他们也经常会故意避免采取
understanding
of pressure and momentum and their typical ploy is to
行动，直到市场首先出现新的突破——然后他们才会反击。当所讨论的突破是
counter whenever they feel a certain move has run its course. But not
在几乎没有积累的情况下设定的（想想假突破陷阱）时，他们会更乐于这样做。
seldom they will deliberately refrain from action until the market has
set a new break first-then they will counter. And they will be even more
happy to do so when the break in question is set with little to no buildup
(think false break trap).
As already stated, it is not always the contrarian who comes out on
正如已经说过的，在失败和后续行动之间这场棘手的战斗中，并不总是逆向
top in the tricky battle between failure and follow-through. The degree
投资者胜出。双重压力的程度
18
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
of double pressure on a break may very well have been underestimated
and as a result, the contrarian may see his own stop triggered in turn.
As a simple rule of thumb: the more extended the foregoing move and
the poorer the break is set at the end of it, the bigger the chance the
event will be countered with success, if only temporarily.
Let us now consider the false low at point 2. With the overall pres­
sure still up and prices in an area of a former low, we can imagine
plenty of sideline bulls to be on the lookout to position themselves for
another leg up. Aggressive individuals may already fire long straight
into the level of the former low in the hopes of an immediate bounce,
but such eagerness is not devoid of danger, particularly when coming in
with a tight stop. From where we stand, the preferred route is to moni­
tor how the market handles itself in the level first. This not only buys
us extra time in assessing the situation, our fellow traders can benefit
from the extra information also. Always remember that we want both
bull and bear to cooperate in our game and for this we need a certain
degree of consensus.
Stalling action in the lows of a pullback in a level of support will
surely strike attention among many participants. If nothing else, it pro­
vides a visible indication that sellers are no longer on top of the buyers
and this could portend a revival of the bullish dominance anytime soon.
But caution is still king because the skirmishes in the turn of a pull­
back can be quite choppy and in them a tight stop is easily found.
A development that could possibly work as a catalyst for the situa­
tion to resolve in favor of the bulls is when a bear break fails to extend
the pullback and is then followed by a bull break soon after. After all, if
the bears cannot follow up on their own break, and then suffer an up­
side break as thanks for their efforts, that provides a telling clue as to
who is calling the shots in the turn.
While false highs and lows can indeed offer valuable information, by
themselves they are no reason to act. In Situation 1, a good example of
how to have incorporated a false low incident into a trading decision is
to have entered long on the break of level 3. In this setup, the false low
at 2 functioned as an excellent marker of an upcoming turn, but it was
the subsequent buildup that provided the base for the actual trade.
19
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
of
double pressure on a break may very well have been underestimated
对突破的压力很可能被低估了，因此，逆向投资者可能会看到自己的止损被触发
and
as a result, the contrarian may see his own stop triggered in turn.
。作为一个简单的经验法则：之前的走势越长，突破在结束时设置得越差，事件
As a simple rule of thumb: the more extended the foregoing move and
被成功反击的机会就越大，即使只是暂时的。
the poorer the break is set at the end of it, the bigger the chance the
event will be countered with success, if only temporarily.
Let us now consider the false low at point 2. With the overall pres­
现在让我们考虑一下第2点的虚假低点。在整体压力仍然上升且价格处于前低
sure still up and prices in an area of a former low, we can imagine
区域的情况下，我们可以想象许多观望的多头正在寻找机会，以便为下一轮上
plenty
of sideline bulls to be on the lookout to position themselves for
涨做好准备。激进的交易者可能已经直接在前低的水平上开仓做多，希望能立
another leg up. Aggressive individuals may already fire long straight
即反弹，但这种急切并非没有风险，尤其是在设置紧止损的情况下。从我们目
into the level of the former low in the hopes of an immediate bounce,
前的立场来看，首选的做法是先观察市场在该水平上的表现。这不仅为我们提
but such eagerness is not devoid of danger, particularly when coming in
供了额外的时间来评估情况，我们的其他交易者也可以从额外的信息中受益。
with
a tight stop. From where we stand, the preferred route is to moni­
始终记住，我们希望多头和空头在我们的游戏中合作，而这需要一定程度的共
tor how the market handles itself in the level first. This not only buys
识。
us extra time in assessing the situation, our fellow traders can benefit
from the extra information also. Always remember that we want both
bull and bear to cooperate in our game and for this we need a certain
degree of consensus.
Stalling action in the lows of a pullback in a level of support will
在支撑位的回调低点处的停滞行为无疑会引起许多参与者的注意。如果没
surely
strike attention among many participants. If nothing else, it pro­
有其他，这提供了一个明显的迹象，表明卖方不再占据买方的上风，这可能
vides
a visible indication that sellers are no longer on top of the buyers
预示着多头主导地位很快会复苏。但谨慎仍然是王道，因为在回调的转折点上
and this could portend a revival of the bullish dominance anytime soon.
的小冲突可能会相当波动，在这些情况下，紧止损很容易被触发。
But caution is still king because the skirmishes in the turn of a pull­
back can be quite choppy and in them a tight stop is easily found.
A development that could possibly work as a catalyst for the situa­
一个可能作为牛市局势催化剂的发展是，当空头突破未能延续回调，随后紧接
tion
to resolve in favor of the bulls is when a bear break fails to extend
着出现牛市突破。如果空头无法在自己的突破后继续施压，并且随后遭遇到上涨
the
pullback and is then followed by a bull break soon after. After all, if
突破，这就为谁在转折中掌控局势提供了一个明显的线索。
the bears cannot follow up on their own break, and then suffer an up­
side break as thanks for their efforts, that provides a telling clue as to
who is calling the shots in the turn.
While false highs and lows can indeed offer valuable information, by
虽然虚假的高点和低点确实可以提供有价值的信息，但仅凭它们本身并不足
themselves they are no reason to act. In Situation 1, a good example of
以采取行动。在情况1中，一个很好的例子是如何将虚假低点事件纳入交易决策
how to have incorporated a false low incident into a trading decision is
中，即在突破3级时进入多头。在这个设置中，2级的虚假低点作为即将转折的
to have entered long on the break of level 3. In this setup, the false low
优秀标记，但随后的积累才为实际交易提供了基础。
at 2 functioned as an excellent marker of an upcoming turn, but it was
the subsequent buildup that provided the base for the actual trade.
19
Understanding Price Aaion
When compared to the false high at point 1, the false high at point
4 in Situation 2 is likely to have a bigger impact on the bullish morale.
The sideways buildup prior to the upside break indicates that this time
the bulls had put a lot more effort into setting their break, only to see
it fail soon after. Not a promising prospect. If prices cannot make much
headway even after breaking out successfully from a buildup situation,
then maybe there is more danger on the boil. The event may not neces­
sarily portend a complete market turnaround, but it is a sign of trouble
for the bulls and thus a good reason for all parties to monitor the fol­
lowing action with close attention for detail. Should prices fail to recoup
from the false high incident and instead face another bear break, as was
the case below the level of 5, the market is sending out an even stronger
message.
To summarize on these theoretical yet very common examples, we
could say that (a) a false break at the end of a swing in line with the
dominant pressure could trigger a temporary correction (point 1); (b) a
false break at the end of a correction could be a harbinger of the domi­
nant pressure to soon resurface (point 2); and (c) a break that is built
up properly by the current dominant parties but fails anyway could be
an indication of a more serious power shift ahead (point 4).
Pullback Reversals
Should we conduct a survey among technical traders to get an idea
of the most popular setups around, then any variant of the pull:back
reversal will probably rank high on the list. It is not hard to grasp the
attraction if we consider how often this setup is glorified in trading lit­
erature and how easy it is to cherry-pick perfect examples from virtually
any chart. But how rightfully earned is this reputation, really?
Before we try to answer this, let us examine the characteristics of the
pullback first. In its most classic definition, it is a corrective price swing
that travels somewhat diagonally against the prevailing trend. True as
that is, there are many more variations of the pullback and probably
the majority of them have very little to do with countering a "trend". The
20
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
When compared to the false high at point 1, the false high at point
与情境2中第4点的虚假高点相比，第1点的虚假高点对牛市士气的影响可能更
4 in Situation 2 is likely to have a bigger impact on the bullish morale.
大。在向上突破之前的横盘整理表明，这一次多头在设定突破时付出了更多的努
The sideways buildup prior to the upside break indicates that this time
力，却在之后不久就失败了。这并不是一个令人鼓舞的前景。如果价格在成功突
the bulls had put a lot more effort into setting their break, only to see
破横盘整理后仍然无法取得太大进展，那么也许潜在的危险更大。这个事件可能
it
fail soon after. Not a promising prospect. If prices cannot make much
并不一定预示着市场的完全转变，但它是多头的麻烦信号，因此所有参与者都应
headway even after breaking out successfully from a buildup situation,
该密切关注后续的行动，关注细节。如果价格未能从虚假高点事件中恢复，反而
then maybe there is more danger on the boil. The event may not neces­
面临另一次熊市突破，就像在5的水平下方的情况一样，市场发出的信息将更为
sarily portend a complete market turnaround, but it is a sign of trouble
强烈。
for the bulls and thus a good reason for all parties to monitor the fol­
lowing action with close attention for detail. Should prices fail to recoup
from the false high incident and instead face another bear break, as was
the case below the level of 5, the market is sending out an even stronger
message.
总结这些理论上非常常见的例子，我们可以说
(a) 在与主导压力一致的波动
To summarize on these theoretical yet very
common examples, we
could say that (a) a false break at the end of a swing
in line with the
结束时的虚假突破可能会触发暂时的修正（第1点）；(b)
在修正结束时的虚假突
dominant
pressure
could
trigger
a
temporary
correction
(point 1); (b) a
破可能是主导压力即将重新出现的预兆（第2点）；(c) 由当前主导方适当建立的
false break at the end of a correction could be a harbinger of the domi­
突破但最终失败可能是更严重的权力转移即将发生的迹象（第4点）。
nant pressure to soon resurface (point 2); and (c) a break that is built
up properly by the current dominant parties but fails anyway could be
an indication of a more serious power shift ahead (point 4).
回调反转
Pullback Reversals
Should we conduct a survey among technical traders to get an idea
如果我们在技术交易者中进行调查，以了解最受欢迎的交易设置，那么任何变
of the most popular setups around, then any variant of the pull:back
体的回调反转可能都会在名单上名列前茅。如果我们考虑到这种设置在交易文
reversal will probably rank high on the list. It is not hard to grasp the
献中是多么受到推崇，以及从几乎任何图表中挑选完美示例是多么容易，那么
attraction
if we consider how often this setup is glorified in trading lit­
这种吸引力就不难理解。但是，这种声誉真的有那么合理吗？
erature and how easy it is to cherry-pick perfect examples from virtually
any chart. But how rightfully earned is this reputation, really?
Before
we try to answer this, let us examine the characteristics of the
在我们尝试回答这个问题之前，让我们先检查一下回调的特征。按照最经典
pullback
first.
In its most classic definition, it is a corrective price swing
的定义，它是一个对抗当前趋势的修正性价格波动，通常呈现出一定的对角线
that travels somewhat diagonally against the prevailing trend. True as
走势。虽然这是真的，但回调的变体还有很多，可能大多数与反对“趋势”几乎
that is, there are many more variations of the pullback and probably
没有关系。
the majority of them have very little to do with countering a "trend". The
20
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
ranging market, for example, is flooded with seesaw motions and half
of them are pullbacks, whichever way you look at it. And then there are
the so-called "corrections in time" that hardly retrace in price at all, yet
are pullbacks nonetheless. Furthermore, since the idea of superior and
inferior moves is a matter of perception to begin with and highly depen­
dent on the time frame of choice, we may rightfully ask ourselves who
is actually countering who at any moment in time in the bigger scheme
of things.
Naturally, it is always best to establish a view on these matters from
one's own perspective and a trader's first task, therefore, is to recognize
the line of least resistance in his chart. If there is dominance to be de­
tected in the current technical picture, any decent retracement within
it is worthy of attention. But there is always a tricky issue to solve: just
when exactly have prices retraced far enough to "safely" anticipate a
favorable turn?
In our discussion on the false highs and lows, we already touched
upon a reversal technique, which was to trade the break from a small
buildup progression in the anticipated lows of a corrective swing (Figure
2 . 5 , Situation 1 , entry above 3). In the following paragraphs, we will dig
a bit deeper into the practice of turning point recognition.
In the wide array of pullback reversal tactics, two popular strate­
gies stand out, both contillning elements that can be implemented in
our own plan of attack. The most universal approach is to measure the
length of the dominant move and then wait for the pullback to retrace
a certain percentage of it. If the trending move is, say, 1 0 points tall,
many traders will wait to deploy their reversal positions until they have
seen a retracement of about 4 to 6 points, so in essence the conven­
tional retracement levels of 40, 50 and 60 percent.
Regardless of how this technique holds up statistically, it is easy to
point out its most apparent drawback: with no further discretion built
in, it needs a relatively wide stop to survive all corrections deeper than
anticipated.
To counter the element of uncertainty to some degree, another popu­
lar tactic is to wait for the pullback to first reach an area of support
or resistance within the trending swing-preferably residing at a cor-
21
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
ranging
market, for example, is flooded with seesaw motions and half
例如，区间市场充斥着起伏的运动，其中一半是回调，无论你怎么看。而且还有
of
them are pullbacks, whichever way you look at it. And then there are
所谓的“时间修正”，它几乎没有在价格上回撤，但仍然是回调。此外，由于优劣
the
so-called "corrections in time" that hardly retrace in price at all, yet
走势的概念本身就是一个感知问题，并且高度依赖于所选择的时间框架，我们可
are
pullbacks nonetheless. Furthermore, since the idea of superior and
以合理地问自己，在更大的事物框架中，谁实际上在反对谁。
inferior moves is a matter of perception to begin with and highly depen­
dent on the time frame of choice, we may rightfully ask ourselves who
is actually countering who at any moment in time in the bigger scheme
of things.
Naturally, it is always best to establish a view on these matters from
当然，从自己的角度出发来建立对这些问题的看法总是最好的，因此交易者的
one's own perspective and a trader's first task, therefore, is to recognize
首要任务是识别图表中的最小阻力线。如果在当前的技术图景中可以检测到主导趋
the line of least resistance in his chart. If there is dominance to be de­
势，那么其中的任何合理回撤都值得关注。但总是有一个棘手的问题需要解决：价
tected in the current technical picture, any decent retracement within
格究竟回撤到何种程度才能“安全地”预期有利的转折？
it is worthy of attention. But there is always a tricky issue to solve: just
when exactly have prices retraced far enough to "safely" anticipate a
favorable turn?
In our discussion on the false highs and lows, we already touched
在我们讨论虚假高点和低点时，我们已经提到了一个反转技术，即在预期
upon
a reversal technique, which was to trade the break from a small
的修正波段低点的小积累进程中进行突破交易（图2.5，情况1，入场点在3之上
buildup progression in the anticipated lows of a corrective swing (Figure
）。在接下来的段落中，我们将更深入地探讨转折点识别的实践。
2 . 5 , Situation 1 , entry above 3). In the following paragraphs, we will dig
a bit deeper into the practice of turning point recognition.
In the wide array of pullback reversal tactics, two popular strate­
在各种回调反转策略中，有两种流行的策略脱颖而出，这两种策略都包含可
gies stand out, both contillning elements that can be implemented in
以在我们自己的攻击计划中实施的元素。最通用的方法是测量主导走势的长度
our own plan of attack. The most universal approach is to measure the
，然后等待回调回撤到其某个百分比。如果趋势走势的高度是10点，许多交易
length
of the dominant move and then wait for the pullback to retrace
者会等到看到回撤大约4到6点后再部署他们的反转头寸，因此本质上是传统的
a certain percentage of it. If the trending move is, say, 1 0 points tall,
回撤水平为40%、50%和60%。
many traders will wait to deploy their reversal positions until they have
seen a retracement of about 4 to 6 points, so in essence the conven­
tional retracement levels of 40, 50 and 60 percent.
Regardless of how this technique holds up statistically, it is easy to
无论这种技术在统计上如何站得住脚，很容易指出它最明显的缺点：在没
point out its most apparent drawback: with no further discretion built
有进一步内置的自由裁量权的情况下，它需要一个相对较宽的止损位，才能在
in,
it needs a relatively wide stop to survive all corrections deeper than
所有超出预期的回调中幸存下来。
anticipated.
To counter the element of uncertainty to some degree, another popu­
为了在某种程度上抵消不确定性因素，另一种流行的策略是等待回调首先到达趋势波动中的支撑或阻力区域——最好位于一个回调水平的
lar tactic is to wait for the pullback to first reach an area of support
40%到60%之间——然后在那里开仓，以期获得有利的反弹。这种技术可以被称为等待技术测试。由于大多数趋势波动在上升或下降的过程中都
or resistance within the trending swing-preferably residing at a cor-
会出现某种形式的横盘整理，而且往往在中间或附近，因此回调到这些水平是高度预期的，并且确实可以成为很好的反弹候选。
21
Understanding Price Action
rection level of 40 to 60 percent-and then fire in it, in anticipation of
a favorable bounce. This technique can be referred to as waiting for
a technical test. Since most trending swings will show some form of
sideways activity on the way up or down, and not seldom halfway or
thereabouts, corrections back to these levels are highly anticipated and
can make for great bounce candidates indeed.
For a technical test to earn attention, there is no need for a classic
trend/pullback situation. Any kind of correction that hits upon a for­
mer level of support or resistance, major or minor, can be referred to
as a technical test and thus harbors within it a potential for a bounce.
Should one insist on playing a reversal without waiting for buildup, fir­
ing into a technical test is certainly superior over firing into a void. But
there is still a large degree of aggression involved.
A more conservative route, and the one we will explore in more detail
later on, is not to buy or sell straight into a retracement spot, technical
test or not, but to monitor how prices handle themselves in the poten­
tial reversal area first. This wait-and-see tactic is based on the premise
that most pullbacks will not turn on a dime. On our 5-minute frame we
often get to see at least one or two, if not many more bars that reflect a
little bull/bear skirmish right in the anticipated end of the correction.
This not only allows for extra time to assess the likelihood of the rever­
sal itself, it builds up the required tension prior to it, and at the same
time it tends to offer a better view on the exact level of the break.
Obviously, this is not to suggest that by showing a little more patience
we will never get stopped out or tricked into a premature entry-or fully
miss our ride, for that matter; but if we aim to play reversals with a tight
stop, this more conservative route definitely deserves preference over
blindly buying and selling into the market without waiting for prices to
stall first. Let us examine some textbook examples to get an idea of how
these tactics can be put into practice.
22
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
rection level of 40 to 60 percent-and then fire in it, in anticipation of
由于大多数趋势波动在上升或下降的过程中都会出现某种形式的横盘整理，而
a favorable bounce. This technique can be referred to as waiting for
且往往在中间或附近，因此回调到这些水平是高度预期的，并且确实可以成为
a technical test. Since most trending swings will show some form of
很好的反弹候选。
sideways activity on the way up or down, and not seldom halfway or
thereabouts, corrections back to these levels are highly anticipated and
can make for great bounce candidates indeed.
For a technical test to earn attention, there is no need for a classic
为了获得关注，进行技术测试并不需要经典的趋势/回调情况。任何一种触
trend/pullback
situation. Any kind of correction that hits upon a for­
及之前支撑或阻力位的修正，无论是主要的还是次要的，都可以被称为技术测
mer
level of support or resistance, major or minor, can be referred to
试，因此其中蕴含着反弹的潜力。如果坚持在没有等待积累的情况下进行反转
as
a technical test and thus harbors within it a potential for a bounce.
交易，那么在技术测试中出手无疑比在空白处出手要好得多。但这仍然涉及到
Should one insist on playing a reversal without waiting for buildup, fir­
很大的攻击性。
ing into a technical test is certainly superior over firing into a void. But
there is still a large degree of aggression involved.
A more conservative route, and the one we will explore in more detail
一种更为保守的做法，我们稍后将更详细地探讨，就是不直接在回撤点、技术
later on, is not to buy or sell straight into a retracement spot, technical
测试或其他地方买入或卖出，而是先观察价格在潜在反转区域的表现。这种观望
test or not, but to monitor how prices handle themselves in the poten­
策略基于这样一个前提：大多数回调不会瞬间反转。在我们的5分钟图表上，我们
tial reversal area first. This wait-and-see tactic is based on the premise
通常会看到至少一两个，甚至更多的K线反映出在修正结束时的小牛/熊争斗。这
that most pullbacks will not turn on a dime. On our 5-minute frame we
不仅提供了额外的时间来评估反转的可能性，还在此之前积累了所需的紧张感，
often get to see at least one or two, if not many more bars that reflect a
同时也往往能更好地观察到突破的确切水平。
little bull/bear skirmish right in the anticipated end of the correction.
This not only allows for extra time to assess the likelihood of the rever­
sal itself, it builds up the required tension prior to it, and at the same
time it tends to offer a better view on the exact level of the break.
Obviously, this is not to suggest that by showing a little more patience
显然，这并不是说通过多一点耐心，我们就永远不会被止损或被诱导进行
we will never get stopped out or tricked into a premature entry-or fully
过早的入场——或者完全错过我们的机会；但是如果我们旨在以紧密的止损进
miss
our ride, for that matter; but if we aim to play reversals with a tight
行反转交易，这种更保守的方式无疑比盲目地买入和卖出市场而不先等待价格
stop,
this more conservative route definitely deserves preference over
停滞要更值得优先考虑。让我们来看看一些教科书上的例子，以了解这些策略
blindly buying and selling into the market without waiting for prices to
如何付诸实践。
stall first. Let us examine some textbook examples to get an idea of how
these tactics can be put into practice.
22
Chapter 2
Price Aaion Principles-Theory
d
a
situation 1
a
d
Figure 2.6. Pullback reversals are often initiated from a key level of support or re­
sistance. Rather than trading into these levels straightaway in anticipation of an
immediate bounce (both at point e), it may pay to allow the market a little extra time
to set up the turn in buildup fashion.
In Situation 1 in Figure 2.6, pullback d-e represents a classic technical
test in the level of b, which was a function of the earlier sideways activ­
ity within bull trend a-d.
It can safely be stated that the level of b plays a crucial role in this
chart: ( 1 ) it built up pressure towards another leg in the trend; (2) it
worked as a technical magnet for the pullback later on; (3) it provided
a level for a technical test in a 40/50 percent correction; (4) it offered
a platform for bulls and bears to fight it out in order to determine the
"definitive" lows of the correction, thereby setting up a pullback reversal
in buildup fashion (e-j).
As already hinted, by waiting for buildup, it is inevitable to occasion­
ally miss a turn. In fact, it is quite a frequent occurrence. But it will
save us also from many a quick shake. On balance, patience will prove
a much better ally than eagerness, as countless chart examples will
aim to demonstrate in the chapters ahead. In Situation 1 , the buildup
between e and fis a very common development, and a favorable one at
that. It resided pleasantly in technical support of b, while building up
tension below the level off Should the pressure escape on the bull side,
this is very likely to trigger a double-pressure response.
Regardless of entry preference, however, it is important to note that
the higher entry above f does not necessarily compare unfavorably to
the more economical entry at e. First of all, the buildup below f shows
more confirmation on the likelihood of the reversal, which is already a
plUS. But there is another issue to take into account that will affect the
23
Price
Aaion Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
Chapter 2
第二章
d
a
situation
1
情况
1
a
情况 2
d
图2.6. 回调反转通常是从关键支撑或阻力位发起的。与其在这些水平上立即交易以期待立
Figure
2.6. Pullback reversals are often initiated from a key level of support or re­
sistance.
Rather than trading into these levels straightaway in anticipation of an
即反弹（在e点），不如让市场多一点时间以逐步建立的方式设置转折。
immediate bounce (both at point e), it may pay to allow the market a little extra time
to set up the turn in buildup fashion.
In Situation 1 in Figure 2.6, pullback d-e represents a classic technical
在图2.6的情况1中，回调d-e代表了在牛市趋势a-d中，b水平的经典技术测试，这
test
in the level of b, which was a function of the earlier sideways activ­
是早期横盘活动的一个函数。
ity within bull trend a-d.
It can safely be stated that the level of b plays a crucial它为趋势的另
role in this
可以安全地说，b水平在这张图中扮演了至关重要的角色：(1)
chart: ( 1 ) it built up pressure
towards another leg in 它为40/50%的修
the trend; (2) it
一个阶段积累了压力；(2)
它作为后来的回调的技术磁铁；(3)
worked
as a technical magnet
for the pullback later on; (3) it provided
正提供了技术测试的水平；(4)
它为多头和空头提供了一个平台，以便争夺修正
a
level
for
a
technical
test
in
a
40/50 percent correction; (4) it offered
的“决定性”低点，从而以积累的方式设置回调反转（e-f）。
a platform for bulls and bears to fight it out in order to determine the
"definitive" lows of the correction, thereby setting up a pullback reversal
in buildup fashion (e-j).
As already hinted, by waiting for buildup, it is inevitable to occasion­
正如已经暗示的那样，等待积累时，偶尔错过一个转折是不可避免的。事实
ally
miss a turn. In fact, it is quite a frequent occurrence. But it will
上，这是一种相当频繁的现象。但这也会让我们避免许多快速的震荡。总体而
save us also from many a quick shake. On balance, patience will prove
言，耐心将证明比急于求成更好的盟友，正如无数图表示例将在接下来的章节
a much better ally than eagerness, as countless chart examples will
中展示的那样。在情况1中，e和f之间的积累是一种非常常见且有利的发展，它
aim
to demonstrate in the chapters ahead. In Situation 1 , the buildup
在b的技术支撑下愉快地存在，同时在f的水平下积累了压力。如果压力在多头
between
e and fis a very common development, and a favorable one at
一侧释放，这很可能会触发双重压力反应。
that. It resided pleasantly in technical support of b, while building up
tension below the level off Should the pressure escape on the bull side,
this is very likely to trigger a double-pressure response.
Regardless
of entry preference, however, it is important
to note that
然而，无论入场偏好如何，重要的是要注意，位于
f 之上的更高入场并不一
the
higher
entry above f does not necessarily
compare unfavorably to
定与位于
e 的更经济入场相比显得不利。首先，f
之下的积累显示出对反转可
the
more economical entry at e. First of all, the buildup below f shows
能性的更多确认，这已经是一个优点。但还有另一个问题需要考虑，这将影响
more
confirmation on the likelihood of the reversal, which is already a
两个赌注的临床赔率。
plUS. But there is another issue to take into account that will affect the
23
Understanding Price Action
clinical odds on both wagers. It regards the levels for protection and tar­
get in relation to the level of entry. If we assume both the bounce trade
at e and the break trade above I to have been protected "technically"
with a stop below the last distinctive low prior to entry, there are some
On the trade above f, the last low of significance prior to entry re­
interesting things to point out.
sided at the level of b. A stop, therefore, could have been placed a little
below the latter.
On the bounce trade at e, a technical stop may have been placed
below the first low on the left, below point c. Let us further assume that
both traders had the high of d as a technical target in mind. Should it
have been met, the aggressive trader, since his entry was lower in the
chart, may have scored more pip on reaching target, but not necessarily
more profit in terms of percentage. To examine this, we have to consider
the ratio between risk and reward. For example, should the stop level
on the bounce trade have resided at, say, 1 6 pip away from entry and
the target at 32, then this particular venture would have yielded a ratio
between risk and reward of 1 :2 . It is not unthinkable, however, that the
conservative trader, despite his entry higher up, could also have applied
a ratio quite similar to this. The distance from Ito the target level of d
may now only have been about, say, 24 pip, but the stop below b was
set at a smaller distance also. Should it have resided at about 1 2 pip
away from entry, then this too would have yielded a ratio of 1 :2 .
Even when adhering to a "more conservative" mode of operation, it
can be a fine line between acting prematurely and acting too late; the
market is certainly not always so kind as to grant us the most effec­
tive entry if only we be patient. There is little point also in arguing over
which approach is the statistically more viable, for all is a matter of
perception within the situation at hand. From where we stand, we can
generally label an entry more aggressive than conservative when there
is relatively little buildup involved prior to the break.
Situation 2 in Figure 2 . 6 nicely demonstrates what exactly it is that
we aim to avoid when waiting for buildup. The downtrend a-d is basi­
cally a mirror image of the earlier bull trend in Situation 1 , but this
time the pullback reversal played itself out a little differently. Techni-
24
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
clinical odds on both wagers. It regards the levels for protection
and tar­
它涉及到保护和目标的水平与入场水平的关系。如果我们假设在
e 的反弹交易
get
in
relation
to
the
level
of
entry.
If
we
assume
both
the
bounce
trade
和在 f 之上的突破交易都以“技术上”在入场前最后一个显著低点下方设置了止损
at e and the break trade above I to have been protected "technically"
，那么有一些有趣的事情需要指出。
with a stop below the last distinctive low prior to entry, there are some
在
b 的水平。因此，止损可以设
Onf 之上的交易中，入场前最后一个显著低点位于
the trade above f, the last low of significance
prior to entry re­
interesting things to point out.
sided
at the level of b. A stop, therefore, could have been placed a little
置在稍微低于后者的地方。
below the latter.
On the bounce trade at e, a technical stop may have been placed
在反弹交易中，技术止损可能被设置在左侧第一个低点下方，即点c下方。
below the first low on the left, below point c. Let us further assume that
我们进一步假设，两位交易者都将d的高点视为技术目标。如果该目标达成，
both traders had the high of d as a technical target in mind. Should it
激进交易者由于其入场点较低，可能在达到目标时获得更多的点数，但不一定
have been met, the aggressive trader, since his entry was lower in the
在百分比上获得更多的利润。为了检验这一点，我们必须考虑风险与收益之间
chart, may have scored more pip on reaching target, but not necessarily
的比率。例如，如果反弹交易的止损水平设在离入场点约16点的地方，而目标
more profit in terms of percentage. To examine this, we have to consider
设在32点，那么这一特定交易的风险与收益比率将为1:2。然而，保守交易者尽
the ratio between risk and reward. For example, should the stop level
管入场点较高，也有可能应用类似的比率。从f到目标水平d的距离现在可能只
on the bounce trade have resided at, say, 1 6 pip away from entry and
有大约24点，但止损设置在b下方的距离也较小。如果止损设在离入场点约12点
the target at 32, then this particular venture would have yielded a ratio
的地方，那么这也将产生1:2的比率。
between risk and reward of 1 :2 . It is not unthinkable, however, that the
conservative trader, despite his entry higher up, could also have applied
a ratio quite similar to this. The distance from Ito the target level of d
may now only have been about, say, 24 pip, but the stop below b was
set at a smaller distance also. Should it have resided at about 1 2 pip
away from entry, then this too would have yielded a ratio of 1 :2 .
Even when adhering to a "more conservative" mode of operation, it
即使在遵循“更保守”的操作模式时，采取行动过早和过晚之间的界限也很微
can
be a fine line between acting prematurely and acting too late; the
妙；市场并不总是那么友好，以至于如果我们耐心等待，就能给予我们最有效
market is certainly not always so kind as to grant us the most effec­
的入场机会。对于哪种方法在统计上更可行的争论也没有太大意义，因为一切
tive entry if only we be patient. There is little point also in arguing over
都取决于当下的情况。从我们的立场来看，当在突破之前几乎没有积累时，我
which approach is the statistically more viable, for all is a matter of
们通常可以将入场标记为比保守更激进。
perception within the situation at hand. From where we stand, we can
generally label an entry more aggressive than conservative when there
is relatively little buildup involved prior to the break.
Situation 2 in Figure 2 . 6 nicely demonstrates what exactly it is that
图2.6中的情况2很好地展示了我们在等待积累时究竟想要避免什么。下行趋势a
we
aim to avoid when waiting for buildup. The downtrend a-d is basi­
-d基本上是情况1中早期牛市趋势的镜像，但这次回调反转的表现略有不同。
cally a mirror image of the earlier bull trend in Situation 1 , but this
time the pullback reversal played itself out a little differently. Techni-
24
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
cally seen, the level of b once again presented itself as the most likely
candidate for a possible turnaround (a 50/60 percent retracement in
an area of former support, now resistance), but an immediate short at
point e would have put an aggressive bull in serious trouble before the
actual turn set in.
Take note of the fact that in this situation, prices once again put in
a technical test before reversing, but instead of using a former level of
support to bounce away from (b) , the market opted for a former level
of resistance to turn around in if matches c). Both e and f are valid
technical tests and equally common in occurrence. But since we have
no way of knowing beforehand which level the market will pick in any
one situation, the idea is to remain on the sidelines until more clarity
comes along. Not always will the market offer us this extra information,
but it will do so often enough to consider patience a vital ingredient in
operating tactics.
As to the conservative short in Situation 2, an entry below the level
of g and a tight stop above the level of f will certainly have suited many
bears just fine.
Ceiling Test
In our discussions on the pullback reversal, we came to appreciate the
technical test as a potential base for a bounce should prices hit upon
it (bounce effect) . Equally intriguing, however, is this level's ability, and
tendency, to initiate the correction in the first place (magnet effect).
To see the logic in the magnet and bounce principles going hand in
hand, let's imagine a bullish price move from A to B, some stalling in B
and then another move up to C. If we were on the sidelines with bullish
views on this market and then saw prices come down from the high of
C, what would be a defensible play? Of course, we can only answer this
in general terms, but it is fair to suggest that waiting for prices to hit
upon the level of B makes for a decent tactic. This implies that we deem
the level of B a "safer" zone to operate from, than say, a little above B,
with the level yet to be hit. The point is, if we see reason within this
25
Chapter 2
第二章
Price Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
cally seen, the level of b once again presented itself as the most likely
如前所述，b的水平再次呈现出作为可能反转的最有可能候选者（在一个曾经的支
candidate for a possible turnaround (a 50/60 percent retracement in
撑位，现在变成阻力位的50/60%的回撤），但在实际反转开始之前，在e点进行的立
an area of former support, now resistance), but an immediate short at
即做空将使一个激进的多头陷入严重麻烦。
point e would have put an aggressive bull in serious trouble before the
actual turn set in.
请注意，在这种情况下，价格再次进行了技术测试后才反转，但市场选择
Take
note of the fact that in this situation, prices once again put in
a
technical test before reversing, but instead of using a former level of
了一个曾经的阻力位（f与c相匹配）而不是一个支撑位（b）来反转。e和f都是
support to bounce away from (b) , the market opted for a former level
有效的技术测试，并且在发生时同样常见。但由于我们无法事先知道市场在任
of resistance to turn around in if matches c). Both e and f are valid
何情况下会选择哪个水平，因此我们的想法是保持观望，直到更多的清晰信息
technical tests and equally common in occurrence. But since we have
出现。市场并不总是会提供这种额外的信息，但它足够频繁地这样做，以至于
no
way of knowing beforehand which level the market will pick in any
将耐心视为操作策略中的一个重要成分。
one situation, the idea is to remain on the sidelines until more clarity
comes along. Not always will the market offer us this extra information,
but it will do so often enough to consider patience a vital ingredient in
operating tactics.
As to the conservative short in Situation 2, an entry below the level
关于情境2中的保守空头，在g水平以下入场，并在ƒ水平以上设置紧止损，肯
of g and a tight stop above the level of f will certainly have suited many
定会让许多空头感到满意。
bears just fine.
Ceiling Test
天花板测试
In
our discussions on the pullback reversal, we came to appreciate the
在我们讨论回调反转时，我们开始认识到技术测试作为价格触及时反弹的潜
technical test as a potential base for a bounce should prices hit upon
在基础（反弹效应）。然而，同样引人入胜的是，这一水平的能力和倾向，
it
(bounce effect) . Equally intriguing, however, is this level's ability, and
实际上在第一时间就会启动修正（磁铁效应）。
tendency, to initiate the correction in the first place (magnet effect).
To see the logic in the magnet and bounce principles going hand in
为了理解磁铁和反弹原则是如何相辅相成的，我们可以想象一个从A到B的
hand, let's imagine a bullish price move from A to B, some stalling in B
看涨价格走势，在B处停滞，然后再向C移动。如果我们对这个市场持看涨观点
and then another move up to C. If we were on the sidelines with bullish
，并看到价格从C的高点下跌，那么什么是一个合理的操作？当然，我们只能
views on this market and then saw prices come down from the high of
从一般的角度来回答这个问题，但可以合理地建议，等待价格触及B水平是一
C, what would be a defensible play? Of course, we can only answer this
个不错的策略。这意味着我们认为B水平是一个比稍高于B的区域更“安全”的操
in
general terms, but it is fair to suggest that waiting for prices to hit
作区，因为该水平尚未被触及。关键是，如果我们看到其中的理由
upon the level of B makes for a decent tactic. This implies that we deem
the level of B a "safer" zone to operate from, than say, a little above B,
with the level yet to be hit. The point is, if we see reason within this
25
Understanding Price Action
approach, based on technical grounds, then so will many other players
with us, and they too may postpone their purchases until the level of
B is hit. As a logical consequence, this unanimous absence of buying
enthusiasm is exactly what may cause the correction to carry on until
the magnet in question is hit.
Needless to mention, this is not to say that the magnet will be tested,
it merely suggests the potential; yet in the marketplace, the mere likeli­
hood of an event often plays a major role in the development of it. Such
can be the self-fulfilling nature of price action.
Observation has it that this magnet-and-bounce principle is not just
the prerogative of the typical trend/ pullback situation, it is basically
present within any seesaw motion in the chart, even within in the tini­
est of technical shapes. This then leaves us to discuss how we can put
these mechanics to our benefit in regard to future operating tactics. For
this purpose, let's have a look at the technical test's more subtle cousin,
the ceiling test.
A good way to introduce its workings is to explore the ceiling test
principle from the perspective of a range breakout situation. The reader
may remember the three qualifications used to rank the likelihood of
follow-through on these type of events: a terribly, poorly or properly
built up break. Another way to describe these distinctions is to regard
a break as either very premature, slightly premature or ready-to-go.
Evidently, our purposes are best served by the latter, since this type
will show the desired buildup prior to breaking out. The very premature
break, however, is not likely to cause much problems either; this one is
so devoid of buildup that we will simply decline it without much further
thought. With this in mind, the trickiest situation usually regards the
slightly premature break, which may show just enough promise to trap
a trader into the market a little too soon.
When confronted with a break of this kind (a potential tease break
trap) , the best course of action, from where we stand, is to decline the
offer; but we shouldn't take our eyes off the situation just yet-quite
the contrary. Should prices indeed fail to follow through on the initial
break, but not fully retreat either, we may soon see the attacking par­
ties give it another shot. If so, an element that could play a telling role
26
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
approach, based on technical grounds, then so will many other players
基于技术原因的这种方法，如果许多其他参与者也如此，他们也可能会推迟购
with us, and they too may postpone their purchases until the level of
买，直到达到B的水平。作为一个逻辑结果，这种一致的缺乏购买热情正是可能
B is hit. As a logical consequence, this unanimous absence of buying
导致修正持续进行，直到触及所述的磁铁。
enthusiasm is exactly what may cause the correction to carry on until
the magnet in question is hit.
Needless to mention, this is not to say that the magnet will be tested,
无需提及，这并不是说磁铁会被测试，它仅仅暗示了潜在性；然而在市场
it merely suggests the potential; yet in the marketplace, the mere likeli­
上，事件的可能性往往在其发展中发挥着重要作用。这就是价格行为的自我实
hood of an event often plays a major role in the development of it. Such
现特性。
can be the self-fulfilling nature of price action.
Observation has it that this magnet-and-bounce principle is not just
观察发现，这种磁铁与反弹的原则不仅仅是典型趋势/回调情况的特权，它
the
prerogative of the typical trend/ pullback situation, it is basically
基本上存在于图表中的任何跷跷板运动中，甚至在最微小的技术形状中。这就
present
within any seesaw motion in the chart, even within in the tini­
让我们讨论如何利用这些机制来为未来的操作策略服务。为此，我们来看看技
est of technical shapes. This then leaves us to discuss how we can put
术测试的更微妙的表亲，天花板测试。
these mechanics to our benefit in regard to future operating tactics. For
this purpose, let's have a look at the technical test's more subtle cousin,
the ceiling test.
A good way to introduce its workings is to explore the ceiling test
介绍其运作的一个好方法是从区间突破的角度探讨天花板测试原理。读者
principle from the perspective of a range breakout situation. The reader
可能还记得用于评估这些事件后续可能性的三种资格：构建得非常糟糕、糟糕
may
remember the three qualifications used to rank the likelihood of
或良好的突破。描述这些区别的另一种方式是将突破视为非常早期、稍微早期
follow-through on these type of events: a terribly, poorly or properly
或准备好的。显然，我们的目的最好是后者，因为这种类型在突破之前会显示
built
up break. Another way to describe these distinctions is to regard
出所需的积累。然而，非常早期的突破也不太可能造成太多问题；这种突破缺
a
break as either very premature, slightly premature or ready-to-go.
乏积累，我们会毫不犹豫地拒绝它，而不再多想。考虑到这一点，最棘手的情
Evidently, our purposes are best served by the latter, since this type
况通常涉及稍微早期的突破，这种突破可能显示出足够的潜力，使交易者过早
地进入市场。
will show the desired buildup prior to breaking out. The very premature
break, however, is not likely to cause much problems either; this one is
so devoid of buildup that we will simply decline it without much further
thought. With this in mind, the trickiest situation usually regards the
slightly premature break, which may show just enough promise to trap
a trader into the market a little too soon.
When confronted with a break of this kind (a potential tease break
面对这种潜在的诱饵突破陷阱时，我们的最佳应对措施是拒绝这个提议；
trap) , the best course of action, from where we stand, is to decline the
但我们不应该就此放松警惕——恰恰相反。如果价格确实未能在初始突破后继
offer; but we shouldn't take our eyes off the situation just yet-quite
续上涨，但也没有完全回落，我们可能会很快看到进攻方再次尝试。如果是这
the contrary. Should prices indeed fail to follow through on the initial
样，一个可能起到关键作用的因素
break, but not fully retreat either, we may soon see the attacking par­
ties give it another shot. If so, an element that could play a telling role
26
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
in whether or not we should participate in the subsequent breakout is
the presence or absence of a ceiling test. Let's explore some examples.
Figure 2.7. Principle of the ceiling test at work in a ranging market (both at 5).
First off, to grasp the concept of a ceiling, picture an arch-shaped for­
mation in the chart and then zoom in on the series of bars that make up
its top. In Figure 2 . 7 , in Situation 1 , progression 1 -2-4 depicts a bear­
ish arch. By definition, any arch, before rolling over from the highs to
the lows, will show a little sideways progression in the top, even if it is
made up of one single bar (pointy arch) . The highs of it, obviously, form
an intermediate top in the chart, but at the same time, the lows of this
topping progression form a ceiling, basically a small level of support (3) .
Naturally, in a bullish arch, a U or V-shaped formation, this "ceiling"
level would reside at the top of a bottoming progression (floor). For ease
of use, we will refer to a floor as a ceiling, too.
By extending the level of 3 to the right, we can see how at some
point a pullback came to test this mini barrier from below (5) . This is a
textbook example of a ceiling test following a tease breakout, and it is a
highly anticipated event. In fact, the mere ceiling test potential is one of
the core reasons why the breakout at 4 is regarded premature.
But tease break traders may not be the only parties at risk by the
adverse magnet of the ceiling. Sideline bears who declined the initial
breakout may get into trouble also should they too eagerly decide to take
their chances on the first pullback to hit the range barrier from below
(circle) . This approach defies a price technical concept that is best not
taken lightly when playing with tight stops: rather than turning around
in the most obvious level of former support (resistance of the bottom
barrier), a bullish pullback is known to gun for the last level offormer
support, even when less prominent within the bigger picture (the level of
27
Price Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
Chapter 2
第二章
in
whether or not we should participate in the subsequent breakout is
是是否存在顶部测试。让我们来探讨一些例子。
the presence or absence of a ceiling test. Let's explore some examples.
情况 1
情况 2
Figure在波动市场中天花板测试的原理（均为5）。
2.7. Principle of the ceiling test at work in a ranging market (both at 5).
图2.7.
First off, to grasp the concept of a ceiling, picture an arch-shaped for­
首先，要理解天花板的概念，可以想象图表中的一个拱形结构，然后放大构成
mation
in the chart and then zoom in on the series of bars that make up
其顶部的一系列柱状图。在图2.7中，在情况1中，进程1-2-4描绘了一个看跌的
its
top. In Figure 2 . 7 , in Situation 1 , progression 1 -2-4 depicts a bear­
拱形。根据定义，任何拱形在从高点回落到低点之前，都会在顶部显示出一些
ish arch. By definition, any arch, before rolling over from the highs to
横向的进展，即使它只由一根柱状图（尖拱）构成。显然，它的高点形成了图
the lows, will show a little sideways progression in the top, even if it is
表中的一个中间顶部，但与此同时，这一停止进展的低点形成了一个天花板，
made up of one single bar (pointy arch) . The highs of it, obviously, form
基本上是一个小的支撑位（3）。自然地，在一个看涨的拱形中，U形或V形结
an intermediate top in the chart, but at the same time, the lows of this
构，这个“天花板”水平将位于一个底部进展（地板）的顶部。为了方便使用，
topping
progression form a ceiling, basically a small level of support (3) .
我们也将地板称为天花板。
Naturally, in a bullish arch, a U or V-shaped formation, this "ceiling"
level would reside at the top of a bottoming progression (floor). For ease
of use, we will refer to a floor as a ceiling, too.
By extending the level of 3 to the right, we can see how at some
通过将3的水平向右延伸，我们可以看到在某个时刻，一个回调来测试这
point
a pullback came to test this mini barrier from below (5) . This is a
个迷你障碍（5）从下方。这是一个教科书式的天花板测试，跟随一个诱导突
textbook example of a ceiling test following a tease breakout, and it is a
破，这是一个高度预期的事件。事实上，单纯的天花板测试潜力是为什么在4
anticipated event. In fact, the mere ceiling test potential is one of
highly
的突破被视为过早的核心原因之一。
the core reasons why the breakout at 4 is regarded premature.
But tease break traders may not be the only parties at risk by the
但是，诱导突破交易者可能并不是唯一受到天花板不利吸引力影响的群体
adverse magnet of the ceiling. Sideline bears who declined the initial
。那些拒绝初始突破的旁观空头也可能会陷入麻烦，如果他们过于急于在第一
breakout
may get into trouble also should they too eagerly decide to take
次回调时从下方触及范围障碍（圈）时。这种方法违背了一个价格技术概念，
their chances on the first pullback to hit the range barrier from below
在使用紧止损时最好不要轻视：而不是在前支撑的最明显水平（底部障碍的阻
(circle) . This approach defies a price technical concept that is best not
力）上反转，牛市回调被认为是针对最后一个前支撑水平，即使在更大图景中
taken
lightly when playing with tight stops: rather than turning around
不那么显著（该水平的
in the most obvious level of former support (resistance of the bottom
barrier), a bullish pullback is known to gun for the last level offormer
support, even when less prominent within the bigger picture (the level of
27
Understanding Price Action
3) . We could say this is to "fill up" the hollow space between the range
barrier and the ceiling test extension. This is essentially a function of
the magnet effect described above, and by no means a rare occurrence.
Where eager players run a risk of an adverse magnet to work against
them, patient traders stand excellent chance to benefit from it. Should
prices indeed bounce back from a ceiling test and then go on to attack
the range barrier second time around, this shows a persistence on the
part of the assailers not likely to go unnoticed. As a result, the defend­
ing parties may now prove more intimidated, and possibly more willing
to dump their holdings on a subsequent break.
Situation 2 in Figure 2 . 7 shows a variant of the very same principle.
The arch of interest in this picture is progression 1 -2-4. The range high
is broken at 4, but not from a buildup progression directly below the top
barrier; so that puts this break in the tease break category, too (regard­
less of outcome) .
By declining the offer at 4, bulls may have had their suspicions
about the potential for immediate follow-through, but not necessarily
about the bullish prospects in general. It is therefore not unthinkable
that they are actually hoping for this tease break to fail. After all, should
prices indeed be forced to retreat, their typical tendency is to be sucked
towards a level of support back inside the range (low of 5 put in a ceiling
test with the highs of 3). And that could serve as an excellent platform
from which to launch another upside attack.
Note that this particular "ceiling" (a floor in a V-shape) is not really
located in the deepest part of the 1 -2-4 arch; but since this level repre­
sents the last level of former resistance inside the range, it is the first
magnet of interest to qualify as potential support on the way back from
the tease breakout, and we can refer to this as a ceiling, too. Aggressive
parties may already buy straight into this level in anticipation of an im­
mediate bounce (5) ; more conservative players may want to see how the
market handles the test first, and take it from there; others may decide
to remain on the sidelines until they actually see the top barrier of the
range broken second time around (point 6).
None of the above is to suggest that tease breakouts are merely a
postponement of a superior break later on, but it is very common prac-
28
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
3)
We could say this is to "fill up" the hollow space between the range
3).. 我们可以说这是为了“填补”范围障碍和天花板测试扩展之间的空洞。这本质
barrier
and the ceiling test extension. This is essentially a function of
上是上述磁效应的一个功能，并不是一种罕见的现象。当急于进攻的交易者面
the
magnet effect described above, and by no means a rare occurrence.
临不利的磁力时，耐心的交易者则有很好的机会从中受益。如果价格确实从天
Where eager players run a risk of an adverse magnet to work against
花板测试反弹，然后再次攻击范围障碍，这表明攻击者的坚持不懈是不会
them, patient traders stand excellent chance to benefit from it. Should
被忽视的。因此，防守方可能会感到更加畏惧，并可能在随后的突破中更愿意
prices
indeed bounce back from a ceiling test and then go on to attack
抛售他们的持仓。
the range barrier second time around, this shows a persistence on the
part of the assailers not likely to go unnoticed. As a result, the defend­
ing parties may now prove more intimidated, and possibly more willing
to dump their holdings on a subsequent break.
Situation 2 in Figure 2 . 7 shows a variant of the very same principle.
图2.7中的情况2展示了同一原则的一个变体。该图中的兴趣弧是进程1-2-4。
The
arch of interest in this picture is progression 1 -2-4. The range high
范围高点在4处被突破，但并不是直接从顶部障碍下方的积累进程突破的；因此
is
broken at 4, but not from a buildup progression directly below the top
，这一突破也属于挑逗性突破类别（无论结果如何）。
barrier; so that puts this break in the tease break category, too (regard­
less of outcome) .
By declining the offer at 4, bulls may have had their suspicions
通过拒绝在4的报价，牛市可能对立即跟进的潜力有所怀疑，但并不一定对
about the potential for immediate follow-through, but not necessarily
整体的看涨前景感到怀疑。因此，他们实际上希望这个诱惑突破失败并不是不
about the bullish prospects in general. It is therefore not unthinkable
可能的。毕竟，如果价格确实被迫回落，他们的典型趋势是被吸引到区间内的
that they are actually hoping for this tease break to fail. After all, should
支撑位（5的低点在3的高点处形成了一个天花板测试）。这可能成为再次发起
prices
indeed be forced to retreat, their typical tendency is to be sucked
上涨攻击的绝佳平台。
towards a level of support back inside the range (low of 5 put in a ceiling
test with the highs of 3). And that could serve as an excellent platform
from which to launch another upside attack.
Note that this particular "ceiling" (a floor in a V-shape) is not really
请注意，这个特定的“天花板”（V形中的一个底部）并不真正位于1-2-4拱形
located in the deepest part of the 1 -2-4 arch; but since this level repre­
的最深处；但由于这个水平代表了区间内最后一个前阻力水平，它是从诱惑突
sents the last level of former resistance inside the range, it is the first
破回归时作为潜在支撑的第一个吸引点，我们也可以将其称为天花板。激进的
magnet
of interest to qualify as potential support on the way back from
参与者可能已经在这个水平上直接买入，以期待立即反弹（5）；而更保守的
the tease breakout, and we can refer to this as a ceiling, too. Aggressive
参与者可能希望先观察市场如何处理测试，然后再做决定；其他人可能会选择
parties may already buy straight into this level in anticipation of an im­
在看到区间的顶部障碍第二次被突破（6点）之前保持观望。
mediate bounce (5) ; more conservative players may want to see how the
market handles the test first, and take it from there; others may decide
to remain on the sidelines until they actually see the top barrier of the
range broken second time around (point 6).
None of the above is to suggest that tease breakouts are merely a
以上所述并不是说诱导突破仅仅是对后续更强突破的推迟，但这种情况在实
postponement of a superior break later on, but it is very common prac际操作中非常常见，尤其是在主导压力有利于突破时。
28
Chapter 2
Price Action Principles-Theory
tice, especially when the dominant pressure is working in favor of the
breakout. In the total of hints and clues with which to paint our view on
the price technical picture, the ceiling test's presence, or absence, can
have a major say in whether or not to accept a break. (Entry specifics
are taken up in Chapter 5 . )
Like most price action phenomena, the ceiling test principle i s not
limited to any particular market environment. It is present in both rang­
ing and trending markets and can play a role in basically any type of
reversal or break. Situation 1 in Figure 2.8 shows another textbook
eX?IDple of a ceiling test, when the low of 4 came to test the top of the
bottoming cluster in arch progression 1 -2-3.
3
situation 1
situation 2
Figure 2.8. Some more examples of the ceiling test principle (4 and 8) .
Note: If you scan your charts for higher lows and lower highs, major or
minor, you will often find that plenty of turnarounds were initiated by
a perfect ceiling test bounce. Especially when the chart shows strong
continuation prospects, say, bullish, a correction may not make it all
the way back to a former low, because bulls already buy the ceiling test
level.
Another interesting variant of a ceiling test is shown in Situation 2 .
In this chart, the bullish dominance came under pressure when the
lows of 6 were broken. As bulls fought back to undo the implications, a
pullback emerged, which offered sideline bears an opportunity to take
position from higher up. The parties who already fired short at 7, in the
extension of the lows of 5, may have had good reasons to do so, but they
did expose themselves to the danger of a ceiling test at 8. Since the lows
at 6 represented the last level of former support, it was a more likely
magnet for the pullback to gun for and possibly reverse in (all this in
terms of probability, of course) .
29
Price Action Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
Chapter 2
第二章
tice, especially when the dominant pressure is working in favor of the
在我们用来描绘价格技术图景的所有提示和线索中，天花板测试的存在或缺失
breakout. In the total of hints and clues with which to paint our view on
可以在接受突破与否上起到重要作用。（入场细节将在第5章中讨论。）
the price technical picture, the ceiling test's presence, or absence, can
have a major say in whether or not to accept a break. (Entry specifics
are taken up in Chapter 5 . )
Like most price action phenomena, the ceiling test principle i s not
像大多数价格行为现象一样，天花板测试原则并不局限于任何特定的市场
limited to any particular market environment. It is present in both rang­
环境。它在区间市场和趋势市场中都存在，并且在基本上任何类型的反转或突
ing and trending markets and can play a role in basically any type of
破中都可以发挥作用。图2.8中的情况1展示了一个教科书式的天花板测试示例
reversal or break. Situation 1 in Figure 2.8 shows another textbook
，当4的低点测试底部聚集体的顶部时，形成了拱形进程1-2-3。
eX?IDple of a ceiling test, when the low of 4 came to test the top of the
bottoming cluster in arch progression 1 -2-3.
3
情况
1
situation
1
situation
2
情况
2
Figure
2.8. Some more examples of the ceiling
principle (4 and 8) .
图
2.8. 一些关于天花板测试原则的更多示例（4
和 test
8）。
Note: If you scan your charts for higher lows and lower highs, major or
注意：如果你扫描你的图表以寻找更高的低点和更低的高点，无论是主要的还是
minor,
you will often find that plenty of turnarounds were initiated by
次要的，你会发现许多反转都是由完美的天花板测试反弹引发的。特别是当图表
a perfect ceiling test bounce. Especially when the chart shows strong
显示出强劲的持续前景时，比如看涨，修正可能不会完全回到之前的低点，因为
continuation prospects, say, bullish, a correction may not make it all
多头已经在天花板测试水平买入。
the way back to a former low, because bulls already buy the ceiling test
level.
Another interesting variant of a ceiling
test is shown in Situation
天花板测试的另一个有趣变体在情况
2 中显示。在这张图表中，当
6 的低 2 .
In
this chart, the bullish dominance came under pressure when the
点被突破时，看涨的主导地位受到了压力。当多头努力扭转这种影响时，出现
lows of 6 were broken. As bulls fought back to undo the implications,
了回调，这为旁观的空头提供了从更高位置入场的机会。那些在
5 的低点延伸a
pullback
emerged, which offered sideline bears an opportunity to take
处于
7 处已经开空的交易者，可能有充分的理由这样做，但他们确实让自己暴
position
from higher up. The parties who
already fired short at 7, in the
露在 8 处的天花板测试的危险之中。由于
6 的低点代表了最后一个前支撑水平
extension of the lows of 5, may have had good reasons to do so, but they
，因此它更可能成为回调的磁铁，并可能在此反转（当然，这一切都是基于概
did expose themselves to the danger of a ceiling test at 8. Since the lows
率的）。
at 6 represented the last level of former support, it was a more likely
magnet for the pullback to gun for and possibly reverse in (all this in
terms of probability, of course) .
29
Understanding Price Action
Round Number Effect
The directional effort of any currency pair is a big players game. The
volume necessary to significantly move the currency markets is simply
beyond the realm of the average home office trader, even if he were to
operate on a scale that could be considered huge by whatever home
trading standard. Corporate banks, central banks, institutions and
hedge funds are the typical big parties competing heavily with one an­
other in the Forex arena. There is no point in trying to figure out these
parties' motives for doing what they do at any moment in time. They
may be considering macro-economical releases, fundamental outlooks,
interest rate decisions, chart technicals, you name it. Even if we knew
what one big party was up to, most certainly there will be a bunch of
other big players doing the exact opposite. In all cases, we best concen­
trate on the chart. Mter all, whatever is bought and sold, it should show
up in the price action.
To complete the series of core price action principles, let us explore
the round number effect. One does not need to observe the charts for
long to find constant evidence of how the price action tends to work
up to, and then revolve around, a notable round number of interest.
Whatever causes these particulars, anything that shows up as a regular
occurrence is always worthy of examination.
What is a round number level in a currency chart? Most pairs have
a four digit quotation after the decimal mark (ignoring the pipette) and
whenever the last digit shows a 0, we can consider it a round number.
On a tiny scale, say a 1 -minute time frame, a quote like 1 .2630 can be
seen as a relevant round number, and the next one in line would either
be 1 . 2620 or 1 .2640. On a bigger intraday frame, say a 2 or 3-minute
chart, the relevant levels usually move up a notch and we often get to
see the price action zigzag between the so-called "20-levels" ( 1 .2600,
1 .2620, 1 . 2640, and so on) . But arguably the most notable round num­
bers in any currency chart, and the ones we will sharply monitor on our
5-minute frame, are the full and half cent numbers, for example 1 .2600,
1 .2650 and 1 .2700. We will address them as the 00 and 50-levels.
In almost any session, sooner or later a 00 or 50-level will come into
30
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
整数效应
Round Number Effect
任何货币对的方向性努力都是大玩家的游戏。显著推动货币市场所需的交易量
The
directional effort of any currency pair is a big players game. The
volume
necessary to significantly move the currency markets is simply
超出了普通家庭办公室交易者的能力范围，即使他以任何家庭交易标准来看都
beyond the realm of the average home office trader, even if he were to
算是巨大的。企业银行、中央银行、机构和对冲基金是典型的大型参与者，他
operate
on a scale that could be considered huge by whatever home
们在外汇市场上相互竞争。试图弄清这些参与者在任何时刻的动机是没有意
trading standard. Corporate banks, central banks, institutions and
义的。他们可能会考虑宏观经济发布、基本面前景、利率决策、图表技术等。
hedge funds are the typical big parties competing heavily with one an­
即使我们知道某个大参与者的意图，肯定还有其他大玩家在做完全相反的事
other in the Forex arena. There is no point in trying to figure out these
情。在所有情况下，我们最好专注于图表。毕竟，无论买卖什么，都应该在
parties'
motives for doing what they do at any moment in time. They
价格行动中体现出来。
may be considering macro-economical releases, fundamental outlooks,
interest rate decisions, chart technicals, you name it. Even if we knew
what one big party was up to, most certainly there will be a bunch of
other big players doing the exact opposite. In all cases, we best concen­
trate on the chart. Mter all, whatever is bought and sold, it should show
up in the price action.
To complete the series of core price action principles, let us explore
为了完成核心价格行为原则的系列探讨，让我们来探讨一下整数关口效应
the round number effect. One does not need to observe the charts for
。观察图表不久就会发现，价格行为往往会朝着一个显著的整数关口移动，然
long to find constant evidence of how the price action tends to work
后围绕它波动。无论是什么原因，任何作为规律性现象出现的事物都值得我们
up to, and then revolve around, a notable round number of interest.
去研究。
Whatever causes these particulars, anything that shows up as a regular
occurrence is always worthy of examination.
What is a round number level in a currency chart? Most pairs have
在货币图表中，什么是整数关口水平？大多数货币对在小数点后有四位报价（
a four digit quotation after the decimal mark (ignoring the pipette) and
忽略小数点后的一位），每当最后一位数字为0时，我们就可以认为这是一个整
whenever the last digit shows a 0, we can consider it a round number.
数关口。在较小的时间尺度上，比如1分钟的时间框架，像1.2630这样的报价可以
On a tiny scale, say a 1 -minute time frame, a quote like 1 .2630 can be
被视为一个相关的整数关口，而下一个整数关口则是1.2620或1.2640。在更大的日
seen as a relevant round number, and the next one in line would either
内框架上，比如2或3分钟的图表，相关水平通常会提高一个档次，我们经常会看
be
1 . 2620 or 1 .2640. On a bigger intraday frame, say a 2 or 3-minute
到价格行为在所谓的“20级”（1.2600、1.2620、1.2640等）之间来回波动。但可以说
chart, the relevant levels usually move up a notch and we often get to
，在任何货币图表中，最显著的整数关口，尤其是在我们的5分钟框架中需要密切
see the price action zigzag between the so-called "20-levels" ( 1 .2600,
关注的，是完整和半个整数的数字，例如1.2600、1.2650和1.2700。我们将其称为00
1 .2620, 1 . 2640, and so on) . But arguably the most notable round num­
和50级。
bers in any currency chart, and the ones we will sharply monitor on our
5-minute frame, are the full and half cent numbers, for example 1 .2600,
1 .2650 and 1 .2700. We will address them as the 00 and 50-levels.
In almost any session, sooner or later a 00 or 50-level will come into
在几乎任何交易中，迟早会出现一个00或50的关口。
30
Chapter 2
Price Aaion Principles-Theory
play. It is not uncommon to see the price action meander around these
numbers for many hours on end. Parties will come and attack them,
others will come and defend them. There is never any telling beforehand
how exactly these skirmishes will play out, but we can rest assured
that no trick or trap is shunned to fool and demoralize the opponent.
particularly in the early stages of a round number fight, it will certainly
pay not to pick sides too eagerly.
Like any other tug-o-war, round number battles at some point de­
mand a conclusion (not necessarily in our session, though) . From the
pleasant safety of the sidelines, it is our task to detect and assess the
various hints and clues that may point in favor of one side more than
the other, all of which will be covered as we go along.
Whether the direction of the market is indeed a result of superior
contestants throwing their weight around, or just a consequence of all
combined activity is basically irrelevant. For what it is worth, no party
can ever have his way with the market like a neighborhood bully. Even
the big players know very well that at any moment in time they might
run into a bigger bully themselves and get hurt in the process. On top
of that, they are only human and just as susceptible to follies, false per­
ceptions and tactical trading errors as any ordinary trader trading from
his home. Therefore, rather than being intimidated by these powerful
parties, we should welcome their presence, for without their volume,
prices are not likely to move substantially anytime soon.
A very interesting consequence of round number focus is that these
levels, too, tend to work like technical magnets. If a trade sets up prop­
erly, in line with the dominant pressure, there is arguably no better ally
to get double pressure going than a 00 or 50-level about 20 pip out.
This too is a variant of the earlier mentioned magnet effect. By the same
token, however, the pull of a major round number could work the other
way around, to the detriment of a trade; we can refer to this as the ad­
verse magnet effect.
Taking both mechanisms into account, one of our primary goals is to
set up our trades in line with a favorable magnet, while trying to avoid
the adverse pull of a 00 or 50-level as much as we can. (There will be no
shortage of examples in the chapters ahead.)
31
Chapter 2
第二章
Price
Aaion Principles-Theory
价格行为原则-理论
play. It is not uncommon to see the price action meander around these
价格走势在这些数字附近徘徊几个小时并不罕见。各方会来攻击这些关口，其
numbers
for many hours on end. Parties will come and attack them,
他人则会来防守它们。事先无法预测这些小冲突将如何发展，但我们可以放心
others will come and defend them. There is never any telling beforehand
，没有任何把戏或陷阱会被用来愚弄和打击对手。特别是在关口争夺的早期阶
how exactly these skirmishes will play out, but we can rest assured
段，过于急于选择立场是绝对不明智的。
that no trick or trap is shunned to fool and demoralize the opponent.
particularly in the early stages of a round number fight, it will certainly
pay not to pick sides too eagerly.
Like any other tug-o-war, round number battles at some point de­
就像任何其他的拔河比赛一样，关口之战在某个时刻必然会有一个结论（尽
mand
a conclusion (not necessarily in our session, though) . From the
管不一定是在我们的交易中）。在安全的旁观位置，我们的任务是发现和评估
pleasant safety of the sidelines, it is our task to detect and assess the
各种可能倾向于一方而非另一方的线索和暗示，所有这些内容将在后续中进行
various hints and clues that may point in favor of one side more than
详细讨论。
the other, all of which will be covered as we go along.
Whether
the direction of the market is indeed a result of superior
市场的方向是否确实是由于强大的参与者施加影响，还是所有活动的结果
contestants throwing their weight around, or just a consequence of all
，基本上是无关紧要的。就其本身而言，没有任何一方能够像邻里恶霸那样
combined activity is basically irrelevant. For what it is worth, no party
随心所欲地操控市场。即使是大玩家也非常清楚，在任何时刻，他们可能会
can
ever have his way with the market like a neighborhood bully. Even
遇到更大的恶霸，从而在过程中受到伤害。此外，他们也是人类，和任何在
the big players know very well that at any moment in time they might
家交易的普通交易者一样，容易受到错误判断、错误认知和战术交易错误的
run into a bigger bully themselves and get hurt in the process. On top
影响。因此，与其被这些强大的参与者所威胁，我们不如欢迎他们的存在，
of that, they are only human and just as susceptible to follies, false per­
因为没有他们的交易量，价格在短期内不太可能大幅波动。
ceptions and tactical trading errors as any ordinary trader trading from
his home. Therefore, rather than being intimidated by these powerful
parties, we should welcome their presence, for without their volume,
prices are not likely to move substantially anytime soon.
一个非常有趣的结果是，整数关口的关注使这些水平也像技术磁铁一样起作
A very interesting consequence of round number focus is that these
用。如果交易设置得当，符合主导压力，那么在距离00或50水平大约20个点的地
levels, too, tend to work like technical magnets. If a trade sets up prop­
方，几乎没有比这更好的盟友来增强双重压力。这也是前面提到的磁铁效应的
erly, in line with the dominant pressure, there is arguably no better ally
to get double pressure going than a 00 or 50-level about 20 pip out.
一种变体。然而，主要整数关口的吸引力也可能反过来对交易产生不利影响；
我们可以称之为不利磁铁效应。
This
too is a variant of the earlier mentioned magnet effect. By the same
token, however, the pull of a major round number could work the other
way around, to the detriment of a trade; we can refer to this as the ad­
verse magnet effect.
Taking
both mechanisms into account, one of our primary goals is to
考虑到这两种机制，我们的主要目标之一是将交易设置在有利的磁力线附近
set up our trades in line with a favorable magnet, while trying to avoid
，同时尽量避免受到00或50水平的负面影响。（在接下来的章节中将有大量示例
the adverse pull of a 00 or 50-level as much as we can. (There will be no
。）
shortage of examples in the chapters ahead.)
31
Understanding Price Aaion
In a normally active environment, the eurjusd pair shows an aver­
age daily range of over a 100 pip, meaning hardly a session will go by
without at least one decent round number fight printed. To keep good
track of these potential skirmishes, the 00 and 50-levels are best plot­
ted thinly in the chart by default.
Note: In a low-volatility environment, which can be quite persistent,
prices will have a much harder time swinging back and forth between
00 and 50; as a typical consequence, the market tends to shift its at­
tention away from the 00-50 stretches in favor of the 20-levels. While
none of this affects the nature of price action itself, or the way the round
number battles are fought, it may indeed pay to adapt our own game to
the tighter climate as well. In Chapter 1 1 we will examine this adapta­
tion process from the perspective of a faster intraday chart on several
popular markets.
This concludes our theoretical discussions on the most essential of
price action principles. In our next chapter will expand on all these con­
cepts further, but this time from the practical viewpoint of the 5-minute
chart.
32
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
In
a normally active environment, the eurjusd pair shows an aver­
在一个正常活跃的环境中，欧元/美元货币对的平均日波动范围超过100点，
age
daily
range of over a 100 pip, meaning hardly a session will go by
这意味着几乎每个交易时段都会出现至少一次相当不错的整数关口争夺战。为
without at least one decent round number fight printed. To keep good
了有效跟踪这些潜在的冲突，00和50水平最好在图表中默认以细线绘制。
track of these potential skirmishes, the 00 and 50-levels are best plot­
ted thinly in the chart by default.
Note: In a low-volatility environment, which can be quite persistent,
注意：在低波动环境中，这种情况可能会持续很长时间，价格在
00 和 50
prices
will have a much harder time swinging back and forth between
之间来回波动的难度会大大增加；作为典型的结果，市场往往会将注意力从
0
00 and
50; as a 20
typical
consequence, the market tends to shift its at­
0-50
的区间转移到
的水平上。虽然这并不影响价格行为本身的性质，或者
tention away from the 00-50 stretches in favor of the 20-levels. While
回合数字战斗的方式，但确实可能需要我们根据更紧凑的市场环境调整自己的
none
of this11affects
the nature of price action itself, or the way the round
策略。在第
章中，我们将从几个热门市场的快速日内图表的角度来研究这
一适应过程。
number battles are fought, it may indeed pay to adapt our own game to
the tighter climate as well. In Chapter 1 1 we will examine this adapta­
tion process from the perspective of a faster intraday chart on several
popular markets.
这结束了我们对价格行为原则最基本的理论讨论。在下一章中，我们将从
5 分钟图表
This
concludes our theoretical discussions on the most essential
of
的实际视角进一步扩展所有这些概念。
price action principles. In our next chapter will expand on all these con­
cepts further, but this time from the practical viewpoint of the 5-minute
chart.
32
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
Armed with the theory part of price action principles, let us now explore
how all this translates to real price action on the eurjusd 5-minute. In
no hierarchical order of appearance, each of the following charts will
show at least several examples of the core principles at work. We will
get to see the typical round number fights, false breaks, tease breaks,
proper breaks, pullbacks, technical tests, ceiling tests, false highs and
lows, and a whole array of practical hints and clues yet to be discussed.
It is important to realize, though, that historical studies can only
offer a representation of past market behavior. On the good side, time
and time again this behavior has proved itself extremely persistent and
a diligent price action student should have little trouble incorporating
the past messages of the market into a viable strategy for the future.
No studying effort, however, could ever bring across the true essence of
what it means to trade live, but that is never a valid excuse to ignore the
virtues of preparation.
One of the biggest mistakes the aspiring trader can make-and prob­
ably the most common folly at that-is to adopt a certain method that
seems doable and then immediately go out and trade it without properly
backtesting it first or fully making it his own. Another common mistake
is to utilize charts that come free with a trading platform, rather than
renting a superior standalone package for a small monthly fee. Bar the
occasional exception, free charts usually make for terrible backtesting
if only for the fact that not much historical data is provided. A good
33
Chapter 3
第三章
Price Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
Armed with the theory part of price action principles, let us now explore
掌握了价格行为原则的理论部分后，让我们现在探索这些如何转化为欧元/美
how all this translates to real price action on the eurjusd 5-minute. In
元5分钟图表上的真实价格行为。以下每个图表将以非层次顺序展示核心原则
no hierarchical order of appearance, each of the following charts will
的多个示例。我们将看到典型的整数关口争夺、虚假突破、诱导突破、真正突
show at least several examples of the core principles at work. We will
破、回调、技术测试、顶部测试、虚假高点和低点，以及一系列尚待讨论的实
get to see the typical round number fights, false breaks, tease breaks,
用提示和线索。然而，重要的是要意识到，历史研究只能提供过去市场行为的
proper
breaks, pullbacks, technical tests, ceiling tests, false highs and
表现。从好的方面来看，这种行为一次又一次地证明了其极强的持续性，勤奋
lows,
and a whole array of practical hints and clues yet to be discussed.
的价格行为学生应该很容易将市场过去的信息融入到未来的可行策略中。然
It
is important to realize, though, that historical studies can only
而，任何学习努力都无法传达实时交易的真正本质，但这绝不是忽视准备
offer
a representation of past market behavior. On the good side, time
优点的有效借口。
and time again this behavior has proved itself extremely persistent and
a diligent price action student should have little trouble incorporating
the past messages of the market into a viable strategy for the future.
No studying effort, however, could ever bring across the true essence of
what it means to trade live, but that is never a valid excuse to ignore the
virtues of preparation.
One of the biggest mistakes the aspiring trader can make-and prob­
有抱负的交易者可能犯的最大错误之一——而且很可能是最常见的愚蠢行为——
就是采用某种看起来可行的方法，然后立即出去交易，而没有事先正确地回测它或
ably the most common folly at that-is to adopt a certain method that
完全使其成为自己的方法。另一个常见的错误是使用交易平台免费提供的图表，而
seems doable and then immediately go out and trade it without properly
不是每月支付少量费用租用更高级的独立软件包。除了偶尔的例外，免费图表通常
backtesting it first or fully making it his own. Another common mistake
会造成糟糕的回测，原因仅仅在于没有提供太多的历史数据。一个好的独立软件包
is
to utilize5 分钟内回测至少整整一年。这是一个令人难以置信的有用信息量，只
charts that come free with a trading platform, rather than
将允许您在
需按一下按钮即可。此外，专业的图表是完全可定制的，当您滚动浏览它们时，不
renting a superior standalone package for a small monthly fee. Bar the
会令人恼火地重塑价格或时间轴，并且您可以在其中绘制，而不会意外地触发交易
occasional exception, free charts usually make for terrible backtesting
。这一切都取决于个人，但最好将适当图表（交易工具）的重要性铭记于心。
if only for the fact that not much historical data is provided. A good
33
Understanding Price Action
standalone package will allow you to backtest at least a full year on the
5-minute. That's an incredible amount of useful information, all at the
push of a button. Furthermore, professional charts are fully customiz­
able, do not irritatingly reshape the price or time axis when you scroll
through them and you can draw in them without ever accidently firing
off trades. It is all up to the individual, but the importance of proper
charts, the very tools of the trade, is best taken to heart.
In all of our studies, the 5-minute chart of the eur/usd pair will be
the instrument of reference (with the exception of Chapter 1 1 ). The set­
ting is classic candlestick, with the bullish bodies printed white and the
bearish bodies printed black. As price action traders we have no need
for bells and whistles in our charts, but allow me to suggest the luxury
of one technical tool that takes up no space at all, yet can be a very
useful asset: the 25 exponential moving average (25ema) . Surely we
can do our trading without this "indicator" plotted, but I have come to
appreciate this average as an excellent guide and filter in both analysis
and trading operations.
As the name suggests, the 25ema represents the average closing
price of the last 2 5 bars, but with a small tweak in computation that
favors the weight of the most recent bars. It is slightly slower than its
more popular cousin, the 20ema, which is often plotted for similar guid­
ing purposes. The exponential tweak itself adds very little, though, and
when used as a mere gauge of market pressure, any average between,
say, 1 8 and 30 would serve this purpose just fine. Sloping up, with most
bars closing above it, the bulls are momentarily on top; sloping down,
the bears have the best of the action. All this in relative terms.
In order not to compress the bars too tight horizontally, it is chosen
to show about 6 to 7 hours of price action per chart, which should give
an adequate view on the nature of the session at hand. When trading
live, a trader could set up his charts with some extra hours in it. On the
5-minute, however, there is usually little benefit to be gained by plotting
more than a day's worth of price action on the screen. Too much infor­
mation may even start to conflict.
When setting up the horizontal stretch, keeping a tiny bit of space
between one bar and the next will make for pleasant charting. As to
34
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
standalone
package will allow you to backtest at least a full year on the
独立的软件包将允许您在5分钟内回溯测试至少整整一年。这是一个令人难以
5-minute.
That's
an incredible amount of useful information, all at the
置信的有用信息量，只需按一下按钮即可。此外，专业的图表是完全可定制的
push of a button. Furthermore, professional charts are fully customiz­
，当您滚动浏览它们时，不会令人恼火地重塑价格或时间轴，并且您可以在其
able,
do not irritatingly reshape the price or time axis when you scroll
中绘制，而不会意外地触发交易。这一切都取决于个人，但最好将适当图表（
through them and you can draw in them without ever accidently firing
交易工具）的重要性铭记于心。
off trades. It is all up to the individual, but the importance of proper
charts, the very tools of the trade, is best taken to heart.
In all of our studies, the 5-minute chart of the eur/usd pair will be
在我们所有的研究中，欧元/美元货币对的5分钟图表将是参考工具（第11
the
instrument of reference (with the exception of Chapter 1 1 ). The set­
章除外）。设置为经典的蜡烛图，牛市蜡烛体为白色，熊市蜡烛体为黑色。
ting is classic candlestick, with the bullish bodies printed white and the
作为价格行为交易者，我们的图表中不需要花里胡哨的东西，但让我建议一
bearish bodies printed black. As price action traders we have no need
个占用空间极小却非常有用的技术工具：25日指数移动平均线（25ema）。当
for bells and whistles in our charts, but allow me to suggest the luxury
然，我们可以在没有这个“指标”绘制的情况下进行交易，但我已经开始欣赏这
of
one technical tool that takes up no space at all, yet can be a very
个平均线，作为分析和交易操作中的优秀指南和过滤器。
useful asset: the 25 exponential moving average (25ema) . Surely we
can do our trading without this "indicator" plotted, but I have come to
appreciate this average as an excellent guide and filter in both analysis
and trading operations.
As the name suggests, the 25ema represents the average closing
顾名思义，25ema代表过去25根K线的平均收盘价，但在计算上有一个小的调
price of the last 2 5 bars, but with a small tweak in computation that
整，偏向于最近K线的权重。它比其更受欢迎的表亲20ema稍慢，后者通常用于
favors the weight of the most recent bars. It is slightly slower than its
类似的指导目的。指数调整本身几乎没有影响，当作为市场压力的简单衡量时
more popular cousin, the 20ema, which is often plotted for similar guid­
，任何在18到30之间的平均线都可以很好地满足这个目的。向上倾斜，大多数K
ing
purposes. The exponential tweak itself adds very little, though, and
线收盘在其上方，牛市暂时占据上风；向下倾斜，熊市在行情中占据优势。所
有这些都是相对而言的。
when
used as a mere gauge of market pressure, any average between,
say, 1 8 and 30 would serve this purpose just fine. Sloping up, with most
bars closing above it, the bulls are momentarily on top; sloping down,
the bears have the best of the action. All this in relative terms.
In order not to compress the bars too tight horizontally, it is chosen
为了不让图表的横向条形压得太紧，选择显示大约6到7小时的价格走势，这
to show about 6 to 7 hours of price action per chart, which should give
应该能充分反映当前交易时段的特性。在实时交易中，交易者可以在图表上设置
an
adequate view on the nature of the session at hand. When trading
一些额外的小时。然而，在5分钟图表上，通常没有必要在屏幕上绘制超过一天
live, a trader could set up his charts with some extra hours in it. On the
的价格走势。过多的信息甚至可能开始产生冲突。
5-minute, however, there is usually little benefit to be gained by plotting
more than a day's worth of price action on the screen. Too much infor­
mation may even start to conflict.
When setting up the horizontal stretch, keeping a tiny bit of space
在设置横向拉伸时，保持每个条形之间有一点空间会使图表看起来更为舒适
between
。至于 one bar and the next will make for pleasant charting. As to
34
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
the price scale on the right, I prefer to squeeze down my charts on this
axis, thereby decreasing the height of all bars; this creates a calm, non­
awessive feel, quite opposite to a chart that has been stretched out
vertically. And lastly, to keep the charts clutter free, there are no grid
lines in them, just the thinly plotted round number levels of 00 and 50.
lt is chosen to let these charts reflect the three session nature of the
Forex markets in Central European Time (CET) , starting with the Asian
session at 00:00, followed by the European and London Open at 08:00
and 09:00 respectively, and the US Open at 1 5:30 (US stock markets
Open) .
The arrows in the chart call attention to the so-called entry bars
(entry taken on the break of the forgoing bar) , but since we have yet to
address our entry techniques in Chapter 5, at this point they are just
put in for future reference and to already give an impression of how a
confluence of price action affairs can lead to powerful breakouts.
To minimize the disturbance of having to flip back and forth between
chart and text, effort has been made to present the charts at the top
of the left page (a few exceptions here and there) . What will certainly
aid the absorption of discussions below them as well is to spend a few
moments to examine each chart example first, so as to already obtain
a general idea on the technical topics ahead; this will surely get easier
with every new chart that is introduced. Later on in our recap series in
Chapter 8, with all the concepts and principles already well ingrained,
the discussions will be shortened to fit a two-page format, which will
keep the charts in view throughout. In Part 2 , in the long series of con­
secutive intraday charts, the commentaries are minimized even further
and will appear within the charts themselves.
35
Chapter 3
第三章
Price Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
the price scale on the right, I prefer to squeeze down my charts on this
右侧的价格刻度，我更喜欢将图表在这个轴上压缩，从而减少所有条形的高度；
axis,
thereby decreasing the height of all bars; this creates a calm, non­
这会创造出一种平静、非侵略性的感觉，正好与那些被垂直拉伸的图表相反。最
awessive
feel, quite opposite to a chart that has been stretched out
后，为了保持图表的整洁，图表中没有网格线，只有薄薄绘制的00和50的整数水
vertically. And lastly, to keep the charts clutter free, there are no grid
平。选择让这些图表反映外汇市场在中欧时间（CET）的三个交易时段，从00:00
lines in them, just the thinly plotted round number levels of 00 and 50.
开始的亚洲时段，接着是08:00和09:00的欧洲和伦敦开盘，最后是15:30的美国开盘
lt is chosen to let these charts reflect the three session nature of the
（美国股市开盘）。
Forex markets in Central European Time (CET) , starting with the Asian
session at 00:00, followed by the European and London Open at 08:00
and 09:00 respectively, and the US Open at 1 5:30 (US stock markets
Open) .
The
arrows in the chart call attention to the so-called entry bars
图表中的箭头引起了对所谓入场条的注意（在前一条的突破时入场），但由
(entry taken on the break of the forgoing bar) , but since we have yet to
于我们尚未在第5章中讨论我们的入场技巧，因此此时它们只是为了将来参考而
address our entry techniques in Chapter 5, at this point they are just
放置，并且已经给人一种价格行为的汇聚如何导致强大突破的印象。
put in for future reference and to already give an impression of how a
confluence of price action affairs can lead to powerful breakouts.
To
minimize the disturbance of having to flip back and forth between
为了尽量减少在图表和文本之间来回翻阅的干扰，努力将图表呈现在左页
chart and text, effort has been made to present the charts at the top
的顶部（这里有一些例外）。在下面的讨论中，花几分钟时间先检查每个图表
of the left page (a few exceptions here and there) . What will certainly
示例，这将有助于吸收它们，因为这样可以提前对即将讨论的技术主题有一个
aid
the absorption of discussions below them as well is to spend a few
大致的了解；随着每个新图表的引入，这肯定会变得更容易。在第8章的回顾系
moments
to examine each chart example first, so as to already obtain
列中，所有概念和原则已经深入人心，讨论将缩短到适合两页的格式，这将使
a
general idea on the technical topics ahead; this will surely get easier
图表在整个过程中保持可见。在第2部分，长系列的日内图表中，评论进一步减
with
every new chart that is introduced. Later on in our recap series in
少，并将出现在图表本身中。
Chapter 8, with all the concepts and principles already well ingrained,
the discussions will be shortened to fit a two-page format, which will
keep the charts in view throughout. In Part 2 , in the long series of con­
secutive intraday charts, the commentaries are minimized even further
and will appear within the charts themselves.
35
Understanding Price Aaion
IFig 3.11
WW>N.ProReaITime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
ol�OI,ot61
8
4
'IO�
9
' 355
--1����1
12
o ProReatTime.com
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
Figure 3.1 This chart seIVes well to illustrate the concept of the double­
pressure pop stemming from a buildup situation (bull swings 3-4, 7-8
and 1 3 - 1 4) . Without delving into details of entry and exit technique,
let's find out if there were price action principles at work that may have
hinted at the coming of these powerful breakouts.
A little before the European Open at 08:00, bulls had slowly taken
the initiative (prices above the 25ema) , but their dominance was far
from outspoken. To their credit, they had managed to successfully fend
off a bear attack in bar 1 , which had put a mini higher low in the chart.
A little bullish cue.
With prices back on the 25ema, a small pattern line may already
have been plotted as depicted, but it wasn't a telling boundary by any
means. The line did earn merit, though, when bar 2 briefly broke out on
the upside, only to retreat and close below it. A point won by the bears.
Note: When plotting lines for visual assistance, there is no need to
look for anything grand. Small boundaries (spanning about an hour of
price action) can be very effective also. For bullish purposes, draw your
lines either flat, or let them slope down across some descending highs,
never up; vice versa for breaks on the bear side. But do keep in mind
that any pattern line, big or small, is always a function of personal in­
terpretation. If only for this reason, the mere perforation of a line may
not make for the best of trading signals. The break of a 5-minute bar,
on the other hand, is incontestable and the more crucial the position of
this bar in relation to the neighboring price action, the bigger the impact
of its break. This principle lies at the base of our operating tactics and
36
1.35
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
I图
Fig3.13.11www.ProRealTime.com
WW>N.ProReaITime.com
eur/usd
欧元/美元
5 分钟5-minute
ol�OI,ot61
8
4
'IO�
9
' 355
--1����1
12
o ProReatTime.com
07:00
08:00
09:00
10:00
11:00
12:00
Figure
3.1 This chart seIVes well to illustrate the concept of the double­
图3.1
该图表很好地说明了由于积累情况而产生的双重压力的概念（牛市波动3
pressure
pop stemming from a buildup situation (bull swings 3-4, 7-8
-4、7-8和13-14）。在不深入讨论进出场技巧的细节之前，让我们找出是否有价
and 1 3 - 1 4) . Without delving into details of entry and exit technique,
格行为原则在起作用，可能暗示这些强劲突破的到来。
let's find out if there were price action principles at work that may have
hinted at the coming of these powerful breakouts.
A little before the European Open at 08:00, bulls had slowly taken
在欧洲开盘前的08:00之前，牛市缓慢地掌握了主动权（价格高于25ema），但
the
initiative (prices above the 25ema) , but their dominance was far
他们的主导地位远非明显。值得一提的是，他们成功抵挡住了在第1根柱子中的
from outspoken. To their credit, they had managed to successfully fend
熊市攻击，这在图表中形成了一个小的高低点。这是一个小的看涨信号。
off a bear attack in bar 1 , which had put a mini higher low in the chart.
A little bullish cue.
With
prices back on the 25ema, a small pattern line may already
当价格回到25ema时，可能已经绘制出一个小的模式线，如图所示，但这并
have
been plotted as depicted, but it wasn't a telling boundary by any
不是一个明显的边界。然而，当第2根柱子短暂突破上方时，这条线获得了一
means.
The line did earn merit, though, when bar 2 briefly broke out on
定的意义，但随后又回落并收于其下方。这是熊市赢得的一点。注意：在绘制
the upside, only to retreat and close below it. A point won by the bears.
线条以辅助视觉时，不必寻找任何宏伟的东西。小的边界（跨越大约一个小时
Note: When plotting lines for visual assistance, there is no need to
的价格行为）也可以非常有效。为了看涨的目的，绘制的线条要么保持水
look for anything grand. Small boundaries (spanning about an hour of
平，要么让它们在一些下降的高点之间向下倾斜，绝不要向上；反之亦然，熊
price action) can be very effective also. For bullish purposes, draw your
市突破时也是如此。但请记住，任何模式线，无论大小，始终是个人解读的结
either flat, or let them slope down across some descending highs,
lines
果。仅仅因为这个原因，单纯的穿透一条线可能并不是最佳的交易信号。另一
never
up; vice versa for breaks on the bear side. But do keep in mind
方面，5分钟柱子的突破是不可争辩的，而这根柱子相对于邻近价格行为的位
that
any pattern line, big or small, is always a function of personal in­
置越重要，其突破的影响就越大。这一原则是我们操作策略的基础。
terpretation. If only for this reason, the mere perforation of a line may
not make for the best of trading signals. The break of a 5-minute bar,
on the other hand, is incontestable and the more crucial the position of
this bar in relation to the neighboring price action, the bigger the impact
of its break. This principle lies at the base of our operating tactics and
36
1.35
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
the general idea will be to trade the break of such a bar more or less in
conjunction with a pattern line perforation. On occasion, we may al­
ready enter before our pattern line itself is taken out, but more common
is to hop along shortly after the event.
The first breakout situation is a good example of the latter. Note how
bar 3 opened more or less on the pattern line (low of the white body),
then went down a bit, only to close bullishly outside the pattern (high
of the white body) . This was a token of bullish resilience, but no crucial
bar was broken yet. The very moment the high of bar 3 was taken out,
however, bulls didn't waste time buying themselves in, leaving plenty
of bears little choice but to quickly buy out. A classic double-pressure
situation. (From what is shown on the left of this chart, it's hard to say
whether this truly called for action.)
While there are countless ways to snap up prices in a pullback (4-6),
the conservative route is to wait for the correction to hit upon a techni­
cal element in the chart (a test of support or resistance), and then see if
prices can find some footing in it (buildup) . If you take position merely
on account of an attractive retracement level, say, a 50 percent correc­
tion of the foregoing swing, you are basically resorting to tactics of the
hope-and-pray variety. Buying or selling straight into a technical test is
not without danger either, for prices may very well march through it, if
only to shake out the partles who came in with a tight stop. Hence the
recommended approach of waiting for some bars to settle in the area
first.
The 1 -3 cluster from where the first bull swing had taken off is a
good example of an area of technical support. On balance, the thicker
such a block on the left, the harder it will be for prices to fully cut
through it on their way down.
Quite like an angular line can help to mark a boundary of interest,
wrapping a box around a cluster of neighboring bars can be very useful
also, particularly when dealing with a potential reversal in the high or
low of a pullback. A single horizontal line at the side of the anticipated
break may suffice, but a box can really help to visualize the tension in
the turn (5-6-7) .
Underneath the dotted pullback line, bar 7 was a false low with its
37
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
the general idea will be to trade the break of such a bar more or less in
一般来说，我们的想法是交易这种柱子的突破，或多或少与模式线的突破相结
conjunction
with a pattern line perforation. On occasion, we may al­
合。偶尔，我们可能会在模式线被突破之前就提前进入，但更常见的是在事件
ready enter before our pattern line itself is taken out, but more common
发生后不久再跟进。
is to hop along shortly after the event.
The first breakout situation is a good example of the latter. Note how
第一个突破情况是后者的一个好例子。注意第3根柱子是如何在模式线（白
bar 3 opened more or less on the pattern line (low of the white body),
色实体的低点）附近开盘的，然后稍微下跌，最终在模式线外以看涨的方式
then
went down a bit, only to close bullishly outside the pattern (high
收盘（白色实体的高点）。这表明了看涨的韧性，但尚未突破关键柱子。然
of the white body) . This was a token of bullish resilience, but no crucial
而，当第3根柱子的高点被突破时，看涨者没有浪费时间迅速买入，留下许多
bar was broken yet. The very moment the high of bar 3 was taken out,
看跌者别无选择，只能迅速平仓。这是一个经典的双重压力情况。（从图表
however, bulls didn't waste time buying themselves in, leaving plenty
左侧所示的内容来看，很难说这是否真的需要采取行动。）
of bears little choice but to quickly buy out. A classic double-pressure
situation. (From what is shown on the left of this chart, it's hard to say
whether this truly called for action.)
虽然在回调中有无数种方式来抓住价格（4-6），但保守的做法是等待修
While there are countless ways to snap up prices in a pullback (4-6),
the conservative route is to wait for the correction to hit upon a techni­
正触及图表中的技术元素（支撑或阻力的测试），然后看看价格是否能在其
cal
element in the chart (a test of support or resistance), and then see if
中找到一些支撑（积累）。如果你仅仅因为一个有吸引力的回撤水平，比如
prices can find some footing in it (buildup) . If you take position merely
前一个波动的50%修正而入场，你基本上是在采取希望和祈祷的策略。直接
on
account of an attractive retracement level, say, a 50 percent correc­
在技术测试中买入或卖出也并非没有危险，因为价格很可能会穿过它，仅仅
tion of the foregoing swing, you are basically resorting to tactics of the
是为了震荡那些带着紧止损的参与者。因此，建议的方法是等待一些K线在该
hope-and-pray
variety. Buying or selling straight into a technical test is
区域内稳定下来。
not without danger either, for prices may very well march through it, if
only to shake out the partles who came in with a tight stop. Hence the
recommended approach of waiting for some bars to settle in the area
首先。
first.
The 1 -3 cluster from where the first bull swing had taken off is a
从第一个牛市波动起点的1-3区间是一个良好的技术支撑区域。总体而言，
good
example of an area of technical support. On balance, the thicker
左侧的区块越厚，价格在下行过程中完全穿透它的难度就越大。
such a block on the left, the harder it will be for prices to fully cut
through it on their way down.
Quite like an angular line can help to mark a boundary of interest,
正如一条锐角线可以帮助标记感兴趣的边界一样，将一个框围绕相邻的柱
wrapping a box around a cluster of neighboring bars can be very useful
状图集群也可能非常有用，尤其是在处理回调高点或低点的潜在反转时。在预
also,
particularly when dealing with a potential reversal in the high or
期突破的一侧画一条水平线可能就足够了，但一个框确实可以帮助可视化转弯
low of a pullback.
处的张力
(5-6-7)。 A single horizontal line at the side of the anticipated
break may suffice, but a box can really help to visualize the tension in
the turn (5-6-7) .
Underneath the dotted
pullback line, bar 7 was a false low with its
在虚线回调线下方，第
7 根柱是一个假低点，
37
Understanding Price Action
direct neighbor and a higher low inside the box. When this bar was
taken out topside, so too was the resistance of the box pattern, the
pullback line, the 25ema and the round number. Such a confluence of
broken sweetspots present in a single breakout stands to work to the
benefit of follow-through simply because it will have many traders focus
their attention on the very same break; and contrarians are less likely
to counter such event.
It took some pushing and pulling in the current highs of the market
(double top 8-9) , but once bar 9 was broken down, bulls finally let go
and a bearish pullback ensued (9- 1 0) . Note that this correction only
retraced about 50 percent of the foregoing swing 7-8, an indication that
the bulls were keen on keeping the pressure up.
While conservatism in the markets is highly promoted, it is always
a pleasant fact that many parties have no problem with aggression.
For example, the typical buying of the proverbial falling knife on a 50
percent correction can be indirectly beneficial to the breakout trader's
cause, for this kind of bravery is necessary to slow down the pullback's
momentum, so as to set the stage for a sideways phase from where a
more "conservative" trade may sprout.
A rather effective way to anticipate the break from this buildup is to
monitor closely the current low of the pullback and the first high that
follows it. The moment prices edge down from the latter, we can already
wrap a box around both extremes and extend it to the right. (In this
situation, the initial box could have been plotted around the low of bar
1 0 and the high of bar 1 1 ; prior to the actual breakout, however, I ad­
justed the top barrier a little to match the high of bar 13.)
With an empty box in place, the next few bars will usually start to
pull and push within it-the first stage of buildup. There is no way of
knowing, of course, how many bars will show up in the box, but each
one will add to the pre-breakout tension. Prices could break out either
way, but chances are good that the market will pick the side of least
resistance, in line with the earlier dominant pressure. This implies also
that there is a potential for a breakout trap at the "less favorable" side
of the box.
At some point in a buildup progression, parties will have to step up
38
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
direct neighbor and a higher low inside the box. When this bar was
它的直接邻居和盒子内的一个更高的低点。当这根柱状图从上方突破时，盒子形
taken out topside, so too
was the resistance of the box pattern, the
态的阻力、回调线、25ema
和整数位也被突破。这种在单次突破中呈现的多个突
pullback line, the 25ema and the round number. Such a confluence of
破点的汇合，往往有利于后续行动，仅仅是因为它会让许多交易者将注意力集中
broken
sweetspots present in a single breakout stands to work to the
在同一个突破口上；而逆向投资者不太可能反击这种事件。
benefit of follow-through simply because it will have many traders focus
their attention on the very same break; and contrarians are less likely
to counter such event.
It took some pushing and pulling in the current highs of the market
在当前市场的高点（双顶8-9）中经过一些推拉后，一旦第9根柱子被突破
(double
top 8-9) , but once bar 9 was broken down, bulls finally let go
，牛市终于放手，随之而来的是一次看跌的回调（9-10）。请注意，这次修正
and
a bearish pullback ensued (9- 1 0) . Note that this correction only
仅回撤了前一个波动7-8的大约50%，这表明牛市希望保持压力。
retraced about 50 percent of the foregoing swing 7-8, an indication that
the bulls were keen on keeping the pressure up.
While
conservatism in the markets is highly promoted, it is always
虽然市场上高度提倡保守，但许多参与者对激进的态度毫无问题，这始终是
a
pleasant fact that many parties have no problem with aggression.
一个令人愉快的事实。例如，典型的在50%回调中买入所谓的“跌刀”的行为，间
For example, the typical buying of the proverbial falling knife on a 50
接有利于突破交易者的原因，因为这种勇气是减缓回调动量所必需的，从而为
percent
correction can be indirectly beneficial to the breakout trader's
更“保守”的交易奠定基础。
cause, for this kind of bravery is necessary to slow down the pullback's
momentum, so as to set the stage for a sideways phase from where a
more "conservative" trade may sprout.
A rather effective way to anticipate the break from this buildup is to
预测这种积累突破的一个相当有效的方法是密切监测回调的当前低点和随
monitor
closely the current low of the pullback and the first high that
之而来的第一个高点。当价格从后者开始下滑时，我们可以围绕这两个极值
follows it. The moment prices edge down from the latter, we can already
画一个框，并将其向右延伸。（在这种情况下，初始框可以围绕第10根柱子的
wrap a box around both extremes and extend it to the right. (In this
低点和第11根柱子的高点绘制；然而，在实际突破之前，我稍微调整了上限，
situation,
the initial box could have been plotted around the low of bar
以匹配第13根柱子的高点。）
1 0 and the high of bar 1 1 ; prior to the actual breakout, however, I ad­
justed the top barrier a little to match the high of bar 13.)
With an empty box in place, the next few bars will usually start to
在一个空箱子到位后，接下来的几根K线通常会开始在其中拉锯和推挤——这
pull and push within it-the first stage of buildup. There is no way of
是积累的第一阶段。当然，无法知道箱子里会出现多少根K线，但每一根都会增
knowing, of course, how many bars will show up in the box, but each
加突破前的紧张感。价格可能会向任一方向突破，但市场更有可能选择阻力最小
one will add to the pre-breakout tension. Prices could break out either
的一方，这与之前的主导压力一致。这也意味着在箱子的“较不利”一侧存在突破
way,
but chances are good that the market will pick the side of least
陷阱的潜力。
resistance, in line with the earlier dominant pressure. This implies also
that there is a potential for a breakout trap at the "less favorable" side
of the box.
38
At some point in a buildup progression, parties will have to step up
在积累进程的某个时刻，各方将不得不站出来，强行突破。
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
to the plate and force their way out. But a mere break of a box bar­
rier, even at the favorable side, may still not suffice to attract sufficient
participation. Always preferable is to first see some extra tension in the
box prior to the breakout; buildup within the buildup, so to speak. At
times, this final tension can be subtle to detect, but it is never a matter
of "feel". The bars will always guide the way.
Let's take a closer look at how this second box was built up. The l O­
I I upswing was the first bull attempt to end the correction, but it didn't
take long for bears to take over again and short prices back to the for­
mer low: a common seesaw motion in the potential turn of a pullback.
Very interesting was to see bar 1 2 briefly break below bar 1 0 , only to be
bought up instantaneously, and quite aggressively at that. A textbook
contrarian trap.
Not long after this false low incident, with prices pulling and push­
ing back inside the box, bar 1 3 provided another technical tell of
significance. This bar, too, first surpassed the low of its little neighbor
(technically a bearish feat) and then closed strongly up. This not only
printed another false low in the chart, it put a higher low in the box. If
we compare the implications of bar 1 3 with those of bar 7 earlier on, we
can already see some nice price technical repetition at work.
The second box took twice as long to break as the first, but in many
instances this only enhances the likelihood of a double-pressure pop.
After all, the more trading done within the buildup, the more parties
trapped on the wrong side of the market when prices finally break out,
and their flights to safety can only add to the breakout pressure.
All this is not to suggest that the break trade above bar 1 3 was a
guaranteed winner, but with (a) bullish pressure in the overall chart,
(b) prices in a 50 percent retracement zone, (c) a false low at 1 2 , (d) a
false and higher low at 1 3 , (e) an upside break of a box pattern, and (t)
the 50-level magnet hanging above, at least the prospects for bullish
follow-through were excellent. (Entry and exit specifics will be taken up
in Chapter 5.)
39
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
to the plate and force their way out. But a mere break of a box bar­
但仅仅突破箱子的障碍，即使在有利的一侧，仍然可能不足以吸引足够的参与
rier,
even at the favorable side, may still not suffice to attract sufficient
。最好是首先在突破之前看到箱子内的额外紧张感；可以说是在积累中的积累。
participation.
Always preferable is to first see some extra tension in the
有时，这最后的紧张感可能很难察觉，但这绝不是“感觉”的问题。K线总是会指
box
prior to the breakout; buildup within the buildup, so to speak. At
引方向。
times, this final tension can be subtle to detect, but it is never a matter
of "feel". The bars will always guide the way.
Let's take a closer look at how this second box was built up. The l O­
让我们仔细看看这个第二个箱体是如何构建的。10-11的上涨是结束修正的第
I I upswing was the first bull attempt to end the correction, but it didn't
一次牛市尝试，但没过多久，空头又重新占据了主导地位，将价格压回到之前的
take long for bears to take over again and short prices back to the for­
低点：在回调潜在转折中的一种常见的跷跷板运动。非常有趣的是，看到第12根
mer low: a common seesaw motion in the potential turn of a pullback.
柱子短暂突破第10根柱子下方，随后又被迅速且相当激烈地买回。这是一本教科
Very interesting was to see bar 1 2 briefly break below bar 1 0 , only to be
书式的反向陷阱。
bought up instantaneously, and quite aggressively at that. A textbook
contrarian trap.
Not long after this false low incident, with prices pulling and push­
在这个虚假低点事件不久之后，随着价格在箱体内拉锯，第13根柱子提供
ing back inside the box, bar 1 3 provided another technical tell of
了另一个重要的技术信号。这根柱子同样首先超过了其小邻居的低点（技术上
significance.
This bar, too, first surpassed the low of its little neighbor
是一个看跌的表现），然后强劲收盘。这不仅在图表中印刷了另一个虚假低点
(technically a bearish feat) and then closed strongly up. This not only
，还在箱体内形成了一个更高的低点。如果我们将第13根柱子的含义与之前的
printed another false low in the chart, it put a higher low in the box. If
第7根柱子进行比较，我们已经可以看到一些不错的价格技术重复在发挥作用
we compare the implications of bar 1 3 with those of bar 7 earlier on, we
。
can already see some nice price technical repetition at work.
The
second box took twice as long to break as the first, but in many
第二个箱子破裂的时间是第一个的两倍，但在许多情况下，这只会增强双
instances
this only enhances the likelihood of a double-pressure pop.
重压力爆发的可能性。毕竟，在积累过程中进行的交易越多，当价格最终突
After all, the more trading done within the buildup, the more parties
破时，市场上被困在错误一方的参与者就越多，他们的避险行为只会增加突
trapped on the wrong side of the market when prices finally break out,
破的压力。
and their flights to safety can only add to the breakout pressure.
All this is not to suggest that the break trade above bar 1 3 was a
所有这些并不是说第13根柱子上方的突破交易是一个保证的赢家，但考虑到
guaranteed winner, but with (a) bullish pressure in the overall chart,
（a）整体图表中的看涨压力，（b）价格处于50%的回撤区间，（c）在12处的虚
(b) prices in a 50 percent retracement zone, (c) a false low at 1 2 , (d) a
假低点，（d）在13处的虚假且更高的低点，（e）箱形模式的上行突破，以及（
false and higher low at 1 3 , (e) an upside break of a box pattern, and (t)
f）悬挂在上方的50级磁铁，至少看涨后续的前景是极好的。（入场和出场的具
the 50-level magnet hanging above, at least the prospects for bullish
体细节将在第5章中讨论。）
follow-through were excellent. (Entry and exit specifics will be taken up
in Chapter 5.)
39
Understanding Price Action
IFig3.21
'WWW.ProRe.ffime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
3
1 375
10:00
11:00
1200
1�00
14:00
15:00
Figure 3.2 There are many ways to analyze price action but there is
never any need to overdo it. Particularly when going the leisurely route
of the conservative style there is seldom reason to strip the chart apart.
This is not to suggest that some bars are not relevant. All of them are.
But there's little point in busying ourselves with every skirmish in the
chart. Always remember, it takes time for the market to set up a trade
in high-odds fashion. Whether prices are currently trending or ranging,
breaking away or pulling back, eventually things will work up to a boil­
ing point in almost any session; that's the time to sharpen up the focus.
In Figure 3 . 2 , the activity caught between the two pattern lines,
more than three hours worth of price action, was essentially the mar­
ket's way to absorb the bull rally that had protruded from the London
Open at 09:00 ( 1 -3). A quick scan tells us that prices never pulled back
more than 50 percent from the high of this rally: this was a bullish sign
throughout and the core reason also to shun all trades on the short
side. Surely it may have been possible to scalp some pip on the way
down within this pattern, but that is not the premise of the conservative
style we're about to discuss. It's best to concentrate on the nondebat­
able high-odds ventures first. They do not come in abundance; maybe
once or twice a session in any one market. But you need no more than
that to prosper in this field.
Even among conservative breakout traders there will always be room
for debate as to what exactly constitutes a proper break. Yet few traders
will have questioned the bullish potential of the pattern line breakout
above bar 1 1 . Without bickering over the fact if this was indeed the best
40
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
IFi图3.2
g3.www.ProRealTime.com
eur/usdeur/usd
5分钟 5-minute
21 'WWW.ProRe.ffime.com
3
1 375
10:00
11:00
1200
1�00
14:00
15:00
Figure
3.2 There are many ways to analyze price action but there is
图3.2
分析价格走势的方法有很多，但绝对没有必要过于复杂。特别是在采取保
never any need to overdo it. Particularly when going the leisurely route
守风格的悠闲方式时，通常没有理由将图表拆解得过于细致。这并不是说某些
of
the conservative style there is seldom reason to strip the chart apart.
K线不相关，所有的K线都是相关的。但忙于关注图表中的每一次小波动是没有
This
is not to suggest that some bars are not relevant. All of them are.
意义的。始终记住，市场需要时间来以高概率的方式建立交易。无论价格当前
But there's little point in busying ourselves with every skirmish in the
是趋势性还是区间性，突破还是回调，几乎在任何交易时段，事情最终都会达
chart. Always remember, it takes time for the market to set up a trade
到一个沸点；那时就需要集中注意力。在图3中，2中，两个模式线之间的活动
in
high-odds fashion. Whether prices are currently trending or ranging,
，超过三个小时的价格走势，基本上是市场吸收从伦敦开盘（09:00）开始的牛
breaking
away or pulling back, eventually things will work up to a boil­
市反弹的方式。快速扫描告诉我们，价格从这一反弹的高点回调不超过50%；这
ing point in almost any session; that's the time to sharpen up the focus.
在整个过程中都是一个看涨的信号，也是放弃所有短线交易的核心原因。当然
In
Figure 3 . 2 , the activity caught between the two pattern lines,
，在这个模式中可能有机会在下行过程中进行一些点位的短线交易，但这
more than three hours worth of price action, was essentially the mar­
并不是我们即将讨论的保守风格的前提。最好先专注于那些无可争辩的高概率
ket's
way to absorb the bull rally that had protruded from the London
交易。这类交易并不常见；在任何一个市场中，可能每个交易时段只有一两次
Open at 09:00 ( 1 -3). A quick scan tells us that prices never pulled back
。但你只需要这些就能在这个领域中获得成功。
more than 50 percent from the high of this rally: this was a bullish sign
throughout and the core reason also to shun all trades on the short
side. Surely it may have been possible to scalp some pip on the way
down within this pattern, but that is not the premise of the conservative
style we're about to discuss. It's best to concentrate on the nondebat­
able high-odds ventures first. They do not come in abundance; maybe
once or twice a session in any one market. But you need no more than
that to prosper in this field.
Even among conservative breakout traders there will always be room
即使在保守的突破交易者中，对于什么构成一个合适的突破总会存在争论。
for debate as to what exactly constitutes a proper break. Yet few traders
然而，几乎没有交易者会质疑第11根柱子上方的模式线突破的看涨潜力。尽管对
will
have questioned the bullish potential of the pattern line breakout
于这是否确实是最佳情况存在争论，
above bar 1 1 . Without bickering over the fact if this was indeed the best
40
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
trade of the session, let us simply explore if we could have seen this op­
portunity coming.
First off, if we consider the opening rally 1-3, there was no denying
the bullish pressure in it, but its starting point was somewhat uncom­
fortably located. Coming up from well below the 25ema and with no
buildup prior to breaking through, activity like this is known to raise
suspicion among a wide variety of participants. For this reason, these
rallies may not make for the best of continuation candidates on any
first pullback correction. This is not to promote rebellion against the
pressure itself, but before playing along, we better find out first how the
market handles this situation. Chances are, we are not the only ones
who need extra time to absorb and assess the implications.
Another element of concern was the fact that prices had taken out
the 50-level on the way up but not tested it back since. This doesn't
have to be an absolute deal-breaker, but on balance, the less built up
this initial perforation, the stronger the adverse magnet potential; just
an extra incentive to be a little more cautious on the bull side.
When the first serious correction set in (3-4) , bulls successfully de­
fended the intermediate low of 2 , which created a double bottom at 4: a
praiseworthy feat in open defiance of the round number magnet. With
this supportive element in place, the bulls' next task was to get the bars
trading back above the 25ema again, so as to visibly reclaim their tech­
nical advantage (4-5).
The 5-6 progression is essentially a ten-bar skirmish over the pos­
session of the average. Within it, bulls repeatedly bought themselves in
from the base of the 25ema, but as soon as prices headed out a little,
they were shorted right back. Something had to give. When yet another
strong bearish bar popped up (6) , the bulls were the first to call it a
day, which then led to the 6-7 correction. From a conservative sideline
perspective, none of this may have set up a trade yet, but the series of
descending highs in the UK morning session did allow for a very fine
pattern line to be plotted and extended for future purposes.
Note: When putting in pattern boundary that spans at least several
hours, it is easy to plot it slightly off, particularly when the highs or
lows of relevance do not line up so neatly. Always try to get in as many
41
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
trade of the session, let us simply explore if we could have seen this op­
本次交易的时机，让我们简单探讨一下是否能够预见到这个机会的到来。
portunity coming.
First
off, if we consider the opening rally 1-3, there was no denying
首先，如果我们考虑开盘后的上涨1-3，毫无疑问其中存在着看涨的压力，
the bullish pressure in it, but its starting point was somewhat uncom­
但其起点的位置有些令人不安。由于从25日指数移动平均线下方大幅上升，并
fortably located. Coming up from well below the 25ema and with no
且在突破之前没有任何积累，这种活动往往会引起各种参与者的怀疑。因此，
buildup
prior to breaking through, activity like this is known to raise
这些反弹在任何第一次回调修正时可能并不是最佳的延续候选。这并不是要反
suspicion among a wide variety of participants. For this reason, these
对这种压力，但在参与之前，我们最好先了解市场如何处理这种情况。很可能
rallies
may not make for the best of continuation candidates on any
，我们并不是唯一需要额外时间来吸收和评估其影响的人。
first pullback correction. This is not to promote rebellion against the
pressure itself, but before playing along, we better find out first how the
market handles this situation. Chances are, we are not the only ones
who need extra time to absorb and assess the implications.
Another element of concern was the fact that prices had taken out
另一个令人担忧的因素是，价格在上涨过程中突破了50水平，但自那以来并没
the
50-level on the way up but not tested it back since. This doesn't
有进行回测。这并不一定是绝对的障碍，但总体而言，初次突破的积累越少，反
have to be an absolute deal-breaker, but on balance, the less built up
向吸引的潜力就越强；这只是让我们在看涨方面更加谨慎的额外理由。
this initial perforation, the stronger the adverse magnet potential; just
an extra incentive to be a little more cautious on the bull side.
When the first serious correction set in (3-4) , bulls successfully de­
当第一次严重的修正开始时（3-4），多头成功地捍卫了2的中间低点，这在4
fended the intermediate low of 2 , which created a double bottom at 4: a
处形成了一个双底：这是一个值得称赞的壮举，公然违抗了整数关口的吸引力
praiseworthy feat in open defiance of the round number magnet. With
。在这个支撑因素到位后，多头的下一个任务是让价格再次回到25ema之上，以
this supportive element in place, the bulls' next task was to get the bars
明显地重新夺回他们的技术优势（4-5）。
trading back above the 25ema again, so as to visibly reclaim their tech­
nical advantage (4-5).
The 5-6 progression is essentially a ten-bar skirmish over the pos­
5-6的进程本质上是对平均线的十根柱子的争夺。在此期间，多头不断从25e
session of the average. Within it, bulls repeatedly bought themselves in
ma的底部买入，但一旦价格稍微上涨，他们就会被做空回去。必须有所改变。
from the base of the 25ema, but as soon as prices headed out a little,
当又一根强烈的看跌柱出现时（6），多头率先宣布结束，这导致了6-7的修正
they were shorted right back. Something had to give. When yet another
。从保守的旁观者角度来看，这一切可能尚未形成交易，但英国早盘中一系列
strong
bearish bar popped up (6) , the bulls were the first to call it a
下降的高点确实允许绘制出一条非常精细的模式线，并为未来的目的延伸。
day, which then led to the 6-7 correction. From a conservative sideline
perspective, none of this may have set up a trade yet, but the series of
descending highs in the UK morning session did allow for a very fine
pattern line to be plotted and extended for future purposes.
Note: When putting in pattern boundary that spans at least several
注意：当设置跨越至少几个小时的形态边界时，很容易将其绘制得略有偏差，尤其是在相关的高点或低点没有完全对齐的情况下。始终尝试尽可能多地触及，然后将线
hours,
it is easy to plot it slightly off, particularly when the highs or
延伸到当前正在进行的柱状图之外。如果该线在更长的时间内保持其价值，只需将其进一步延伸。有时，您可能需要稍微调整一下，以便找到与后续行动更好的对齐方式。
lows
of relevance do not line up so neatly. Always try to get in as many
如果您的形态线已失效或变得多余，请将其擦除以保持图表清洁，但不要在价格突破时立即这样做：该线的延伸可能仍然在回调情况下发挥作用。（将在第5章中讨论。）
41
Understanding Price Aaion
touches as possible and then extend the line well beyond the current
bar in progress. Should the line maintain its value for an even longer
period, just extend it some more. At times, you may have to adjust it a
little along the way in order to find a better alignment with the follow-up
action. If your pattern line has become invalid or redundant, erase it to
keep the chart clean, but do not do so immediately when prices break
away: the extension of the line could still play a role in a pullback situ­
ation. (Will be taken up in Chapter 5 . )
Since we shouldn't have been looking to short this chart, there was
no real reason to put in the horizontal line here. It is plotted to show
a textbook example of a false break trap (7) . As we can see, bulls may
have given up on the 25ema support below bar 6, they were quick to
return when bears came to pierce the double bottom lows of 2-4. Rec­
ognizing very well the absence of buildup, contrarian parties simply
responded by doing what they love to do most, which is to counter the
non-buildup break. This tactic worked out wonderfully well and now
left a triple bottom in its wake (2-4-7).
Ironically, just a few bars after the failed break through support,
bulls let themselves get trapped in almost identical fashion, in the high
of bar 8. Although more in line with the overall pressure, this break was
of poor quality also. Now prices had come straight up from the lows,
only to break out with virtually no pausing (buildup) underneath the
pattern line: not a great way to set a break either. Once again contrar­
ian parties stepped in, this time anticipating a failure of the bulls. As
trapped bulls hurriedly sold out, this added to the bearish pressure of
the 8-9 swing.
Failed perforations at either end of a pattern are very common in­
deed and they clearly illustrate the danger in playing breaks without the
backup of buildup. How about another false break at 9.
Obviously, these stand-off situations can't last. Sooner or later, one
side will force its way through the defense of the other. But how can we
tell a tradable break from a potential trap? By following closely the pres­
sure in the bars. A situation that definitely warrants attention is when
prices tighten up in cluster format while pushing up or down against a
pattern line of interest.
42
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
touches as possible and then extend the line well beyond the current
由于我们不应该一直寻找做空这张图表的机会，因此没有真正的理由在此处
bar
in progress. Should the line maintain its value for an even longer
绘制水平线。绘制它的目的是为了展示一个教科书般的假突破陷阱（7）。正
period, just extend it some more. At times, you may have to adjust it a
如我们所看到的，多头可能已经放弃了6号柱状图下方的25日均线支撑，但当
little along the way in order to find a better alignment with the follow-up
空头来刺穿2-4号的双底低点时，他们迅速回归。他们非常清楚地认识到缺乏
action. If your pattern line has become invalid or redundant, erase it to
积累，逆势方只是通过做他们最喜欢做的事情来回应非积累突破，即反击。
keep
the chart clean, but do not do so immediately when prices break
这种策略效果非常好，现在留下了一个三重底（2-4-7）。
away: the extension of the line could still play a role in a pullback situ­
ation. (Will be taken up in Chapter 5 . )
Since we shouldn't have been looking to short this chart, there was
既然我们不应该一直寻找做空这张图表的机会，因此没有真正的理由在此处
no real reason to put in the horizontal line here. It is plotted to show
绘制水平线。绘制它的目的是为了展示一个教科书般的假突破陷阱（7）。正如
a
textbook example of a false break trap (7) . As we can see, bulls may
我们所看到的，多头可能已经放弃了6号柱状图下方的25日均线支撑，但当空头
have given up on the 25ema support below bar 6, they were quick to
来刺穿2-4号的双底低点时，他们迅速回归。他们非常清楚地认识到缺乏积累，
return
when bears came to pierce the double bottom lows of 2-4. Rec­
逆势方只是通过做他们最喜欢做的事情来回应非积累突破，即反击。这种策略
ognizing very well the absence of buildup, contrarian parties simply
效果非常好，现在留下了一个三重底（2-4-7）。
responded by doing what they love to do most, which is to counter the
non-buildup break. This tactic worked out wonderfully well and now
left a triple bottom in its wake (2-4-7).
Ironically, just a few bars after the failed break through support,
具有讽刺意味的是，就在突破支撑失败后的几根K线之后，多头以几乎相同
bulls
let themselves get trapped in almost identical fashion, in the high
的方式被困在第8根K线的高点。尽管这次突破更符合整体压力，但质量也很差
of bar 8. Although more in line with the overall pressure, this break was
。现在价格直接从低点上涨，几乎没有在模式线下方进行任何停顿（积累）就
of
poor quality also. Now prices had come straight up from the lows,
突破了：这并不是设置突破的好方法。再次，反向交易者介入，这次预期多头
only
to break out with virtually no pausing (buildup) underneath the
会失败。被困的多头匆忙抛售，这增加了8-9波段的看跌压力。
pattern line: not a great way to set a break either. Once again contrar­
ian parties stepped in, this time anticipating a failure of the bulls. As
trapped bulls hurriedly sold out, this added to the bearish pressure of
the 8-9 swing.
Failed perforations at either end of a pattern are very common in­
在模式的两端出现失败穿透是非常常见的，确实清楚地说明了在没有积
deed
and they clearly illustrate the danger in playing breaks without the
累支持的情况下进行突破交易的危险。第9根K线又出现了一个虚假突破。
backup of buildup. How about another false break at 9.
Obviously, these stand-off situations can't last. Sooner or later, one
显然，这种对峙局面无法持续。迟早，一方将迫使另一方的防线突破。但我
side
will force its way through the defense of the other. But how can we
们如何区分可交易的突破和潜在的陷阱呢？通过密切关注K线中的压力。当价格
tell a tradable break from a potential trap? By following closely the pres­
在集群格式中收紧，同时向上或向下推向一个重要的模式线时，这种情况绝对
sure in the bars. A situation that definitely warrants attention is when
值得关注。
prices tighten up in cluster format while pushing up or down against a
pattern line of interest.
42
Chapter 3
Price Aaion Principles-Praaice
One of the most telling clues to obtain that a breakout is near is
when a strong bar gets printed on the right of a cluster progression. Bar
1 0 is a good example (and so was bar 6 earlier on) . Granted, when bar
1 0 was broken topside, prices were still trapped within the bigger pat­
tern, but the event did let on that the bears were once again beaten in
support, and this time with buildup. That basically put the overhanging
pattern line next on the agenda. Time for a conservative breakout trader
to sharpen up the focus some more.
There is another form of buildup that can really put the pressure
up. Whenever prices in a potential breakout area are capped on one
side by a pattern line and on the other by the 25ema, we have what
can be referred to as a squeeze situation. Although this chart is actu­
ally not the best candidate to introduce this highly effective form of
pre-breakout tension, it does show us, prior to the breakout, one tiny
bar squeezed tight between the pattern line and the average (bar 1 1 ) .
Preferably, squeezes contain at least two or three, if not many more
bars, which can really make the tension coil up like a spring. We will see
plenty of examples soon enough.
Very interesting also was to see the break above bar 1 1 stem from a
W-pattem, progression 8-9- 1 0- 1 1 . When such a potent pattern is posi­
tioned favorably within the price action, it is widely known to portend
a breakout on the bull side (as is its bearish counterpart, the M-pattem
on the bear side) . W and M-patterns come in many different shapes and
sizes and they can serve a very useful purpose in both entry and exit
technique. We will take up their appearances and implications in more
detail in the discussions and chapters to come.
To top it off, this pattern breakout found itself assisted by a very
powerful ally. Have a look at how the round number of 1 . 38 literally
sucked prices in from the moment the "proper" break was set. Not a
bear in sight until the level was hit upon. Such can be the power of a
favorable magnet.
43
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Aaion Principles-Praaice
价格行为原则-实践
One of the most telling clues to obtain that a breakout is near is
获取突破即将到来的一个最明显的线索是，当一个强劲的柱状图出现在一组
when
a strong bar gets printed on the right of a cluster progression. Bar
集群进展的右侧时。柱10就是一个很好的例子（而且早些时候的柱6也是如此）
1 0 is a good example (and so was bar 6 earlier on) . Granted, when bar
。当然，当柱10被向上突破时，价格仍然被困在更大的模式内，但这一事件确
1 0 was broken topside, prices were still trapped within the bigger pat­
实表明，空头再次在支撑位被击败，这次是伴随着积累。这基本上将悬而未决
tern,
but the event did let on that the bears were once again beaten in
的模式线放在了议程上。是时候让保守的突破交易者更加集中注意力了。
support, and this time with buildup. That basically put the overhanging
pattern line next on the agenda. Time for a conservative breakout trader
to sharpen up the focus some more.
还有另一种形式的积累可以真正施加压力。每当潜在突破区域的价格一侧被
There
is another form of buildup that can really put the pressure
up. Whenever prices in a potential breakout area are capped on one
模式线限制，而另一侧被25ema限制时，我们就会出现可以称为挤压情况的情况
side by a pattern line and on the other by the 25ema, we have what
。尽管这张图实际上不是引入这种高效的突破前紧张形式的最佳候选者，但它
can be referred to as a squeeze situation. Although this chart is actu­
确实在突破前向我们展示了一个紧紧夹在模式线和平均线之间的小柱（柱11）
ally not the best candidate to introduce this highly effective form of
。理想情况下，挤压至少包含两到三个，甚至更多的柱，这样可以真正让紧张
pre-breakout tension, it does show us, prior to the breakout, one tiny
像弹簧一样卷起来。我们很快就会看到很多例子。
bar squeezed tight between the pattern line and the average (bar 1 1 ) .
Preferably, squeezes contain at least two or three, if not many more
bars, which can really make the tension coil up like a spring. We will see
plenty of examples soon enough.
Very interesting also was to see the break above bar 1 1 stem from a
非常有趣的是，看到第11根柱子的突破源于W形态，进程为8-9-10-11。当这样
W-pattem, progression 8-9- 1 0- 1 1 . When such a potent pattern is posi­
一个强大的形态在价格走势中处于有利位置时，通常被广泛认为预示着牛市的
tioned favorably within the price action, it is widely known to portend
突破（其熊市对应的则是M形态）。W形态和M形态有许多不同的形状和大小，
a breakout on the bull side (as is its bearish counterpart, the M-pattem
它们在进场和出场技巧中都可以发挥非常有用的作用。我们将在接下来的讨论
on the bear side) . W and M-patterns come in many different shapes and
和章节中更详细地探讨它们的出现和含义。
sizes and they can serve a very useful purpose in both entry and exit
technique. We will take up their appearances and implications in more
detail in the discussions and chapters to come.
To top it off, this pattern breakout found itself assisted by a very
更重要的是，这一形态的突破得到了一个非常强大的盟友的支持。看看1.38这
powerful
ally. Have a look at how the round number of 1 . 38 literally
个整数是如何在“适当”的突破设定后，字面上吸引价格的。从那一刻起，直到该
sucked prices in from the moment the "proper" break was set. Not a
水平被触及，根本没有空头的身影。这就是有利磁力的强大之处。
bear in sight until the level was hit upon. Such can be the power of a
favorable magnet.
43
Understanding Price Aaion
IFig 3.31
www.ProR••lTime.com
eur/usd 5-minut.
1.305
· 1.3
4
., ProReelfine.com
05:00
06:00
07:00
00:00
00:00
10:00
11:00
Figure 3.3 Whenever the action goes more or less sideways for a number
of hours, we can generally identify the market as traveling in a range.
In most such cases it shouldn't be too hard to wrap and extend a box
around the activity. Aside from establishing a clearer view on the barri­
ers of interest, a box will help to visualize the pressures and the buildup
within the range itself. It is certainly possible to do all of your analysis
without ever drawing a single box or line on your charts; but just by
looking at the picture above, it's hard to deny the benefits of a little vi­
sual assistance.
Note: Before delving into the range breakout, let us briefly discuss an
interesting characteristic of the eurj usd market: with the big UK and
US traders absent, and news and incentives often scant, it makes sense
that there isn't much firework to be expected during the latter half of the
Asian session. Understandably, Asian traders aren't particularly keen
on taking positions that will probably travel relatively flat for the rest of
their day. How is this useful? Without carving things in stone, we can
generally state that when the latter half of the Asian session contains a
pretty tight range, it is highly prone to be broken when volume picks up,
first thing in the EU JUK morning. A good indication of volume revival is
the way the bars immediately grow in length, usually from 08:00 on (EU
Open), but almost certainly in or around the more powerful UK Open at
09:00. As a result, not seldom the first decent trade of the new session
is found within this voluminous hour and it will pay to be alert when
trading in this time zone. As for other markets, it could never hurt to
check your instruments for similar kind of particulars.
44
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
IFig
图 3.33.31
www.ProR••lTime.com
eur/usd 5-minut.
欧元/美元
5 分钟
1.305
· 1.3
4
., ProReelfine.com
05:00
06:00
07:00
00:00
00:00
10:00
11:00
Figure
3.3 Whenever the action goes more or less sideways for a number
图3.3
每当市场活动在几个小时内大致横向移动时，我们通常可以将市场视为在一
of
hours, we can generally identify the market as traveling in a range.
个区间内波动。在大多数情况下，围绕活动绘制一个框并不困难。除了建立对感
In most such cases it shouldn't be too hard to wrap and extend a box
兴趣的障碍的更清晰的视图外，框还将帮助可视化区间内的压力和积累。确实可
around the activity. Aside from establishing a clearer view on the barri­
以在不在图表上绘制任何框或线的情况下完成所有分析；但仅仅通过观察上面的
ers of interest, a box will help to visualize the pressures and the buildup
图像，很难否认一点视觉辅助的好处。
within the range itself. It is certainly possible to do all of your analysis
without ever drawing a single box or line on your charts; but just by
looking at the picture above, it's hard to deny the benefits of a little vi­
sual assistance.
Note: Before delving into the range breakout, let us briefly discuss an
注意：在深入讨论区间突破之前，让我们简要讨论一下欧元/美元市场的一个
interesting
characteristic of the eurj usd market: with the big UK and
有趣特征：由于英国和美国的大型交易者缺席，新闻和激励措施往往稀少，因
US traders absent, and news and incentives often scant, it makes sense
此在亚洲交易时段的后半段，预计不会有太多的火花。可以理解的是，亚洲交
that there isn't much firework to be expected during the latter half of the
易者并不特别热衷于采取可能在他们的交易日剩余时间内相对平稳的头寸。这
Asian session. Understandably, Asian traders aren't particularly keen
有什么用呢？虽然不能一成不变地说，但我们通常可以说，当亚洲交易时段后
on taking positions that will probably travel relatively flat for the rest of
半段包含一个相当紧凑的区间时，它在欧盟/英国早晨的交易量增加时，很可能
their day. How is this useful? Without carving things in stone, we can
会被突破。一个良好的交易量复苏的指示是，条形图在长度上立即增长，通常
generally state that when the latter half of the Asian session contains a
从08:00（欧盟开盘）开始，但几乎肯定是在更强大的英国开盘时间09:00左右。因
pretty
tight range, it is highly prone to be broken when volume picks up,
此，新的交易时段的第一个体面的交易往往出现在这个交易量大的小时内，在
first thing in the EU JUK morning. A good indication of volume revival is
这个时区交易时保持警惕是有益的。至于其他市场，检查你的工具是否有类似的
the way the bars immediately grow in length, usually from 08:00 on (EU
特征也绝对不会有坏处。
Open), but almost certainly in or around the more powerful UK Open at
09:00. As a result, not seldom the first decent trade of the new session
is found within this voluminous hour and it will pay to be alert when
trading in this time zone. As for other markets, it could never hurt to
check your instruments for similar kind of particulars.
44
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
Figure 3.3 provides a fine example of a UK morning breakout. The
box may already have been plotted when the high of bar 2 had put in
the double top with bar 1 . With the bars currently traveling above the
25ema, the bottom barrier was of less significance and could always be
adjusted later on.
From 08:00 on, the activity did pick up a bit, but the bars remained
very tight in span. Prior to the UK Open at 09:00, bears had managed to
take out the low of bar 3 in bar 4, but then failed to reach the obvious
round number magnet. Already a telling clue. Not only did this show
bullish resilience (or bearish weakness, if you wish), it put a false low in
the chart. And since the low of 4 undercut the low of 3 by a mere one
or two pip, it pretty much resembled a double bottom also (3-4). Not
much later prices were trading back above the 25ema again. All very
bullish.
Have a close look at progression 2-3-4-T. This shows us another W­
pattern, a flatter version of the 8- 1 1 variant in Figure 3-2 . By tracking
the bars from left to right, it is easy to see why these patterns harbor
such strong breakout potential: with a double bottom built in and the
right leg swinging up, the pressure definitely points north.
From the false low at 4, eager bulls immediately pushed on to set the
bull break at T (tease). This can be seen as a little premature (not much
buildup prior to the break), but the situation definitely called for atten­
tion. We already addressed the fact that attacking parties can be very
persistent, even when forced to retreat on first try. The more they have
the chart's pressure working in their favor, the bigger the chance they
will give it another shot in the bars to come.
Note that the retreat from the tease breakout was very modest. The
next few bars simply kept pushing up against the top barrier, a defi­
nite sign of bullish determination. In fact, these four bars in the ellipse
represent a textbook squeeze: not only did they push up against the
top barrier (ignoring the tease high), the 25ema at the other end was
lending a supportive hand, gently squeezing the bars out of the box.
To a conservative breakout trader, this is one of the best setups in the
field, and it gets even better when the buildup hangs from the right leg
of a W -variant. The bullish response to the breakout may have been a
45
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
Figure 3.3 provides a fine example of a UK morning breakout. The
图3.3提供了一个英国早盘突破的良好示例。当第2根柱的高点与第1根柱形成
box may already have been plotted when the high of bar 2 had put in
双顶时，箱体可能已经被绘制出来。由于当前的柱子在25ema之上移动，下方的
the double top with bar 1 . With the bars currently traveling above the
障碍显得不那么重要，并且可以在之后进行调整。
25ema, the bottom barrier was of less significance and could always be
adjusted later on.
From
08:00 on, the activity did pick up a bit, but the bars remained
从08:00开始，活动确实有所增加，但柱子的跨度仍然非常紧凑。在09:00英国开
very
tight in span. Prior to the UK Open at 09:00, bears had managed to
盘之前，空头设法在第4根柱中突破了第3根柱的低点，但随后未能达到明显的整数
take out the low of bar 3 in bar 4, but then failed to reach the obvious
关口。这已经是一个明显的线索。这不仅显示了看涨的韧性（或者说看跌的疲软）
round
number magnet. Already a telling clue. Not only did this show
，还在图表中形成了一个虚假的低点。由于第4根柱的低点仅比第3根柱低一到两个
bullish
resilience (or bearish weakness, if you wish), it put a false low in
点，因此它几乎也像是一个双底（3-4）。不久之后，价格再次在25ema之上交易。
一切都非常看涨。
the chart. And since the low of 4 undercut the low of 3 by a mere one
or two pip, it pretty much resembled a double bottom also (3-4). Not
much later prices were trading back above the 25ema again. All very
bullish.
Have a close 2-3-4-T。这向我们展示了另一个
look at progression 2-3-4-T. W
This
shows us 3-2
another
仔细观察进展
形态，这是图
中 8-11 W­
变
pattern,
a
flatter
version
of
the
81
1
variant
in
Figure
3-2
.
By
tracking
体的一个更平坦的版本。通过从左到右跟踪这些柱子，很容易看出这些模式为
the bars from left to right, it is easy to see why these patterns harbor
何具有如此强大的突破潜力：由于形成了双底，并且右腿向上摆动，压力无疑
such strong breakout potential: with a double bottom built in and the
指向北方。
right leg swinging up, the pressure definitely points north.
From
the false low at 4, eager bulls immediately pushed
on to set the
从 4 的虚假低点开始，急切的多头立即推动价格，设定了在
T（调侃）处的
bull break at T (tease). This can be seen as a little premature (not much
牛市突破。这可以看作是有点过早（在突破之前没有太多的积累），但情况确
buildup
prior to the break), but the situation definitely called for atten­
实值得关注。我们已经提到过，攻击方即使在第一次尝试中被迫撤退，也可能
tion.
We already addressed the fact that attacking parties can be very
非常坚持。图表的压力越是对他们有利，他们在接下来的柱子中再次尝试的机
persistent, even when forced to retreat on first try. The more they have
会就越大。
the chart's pressure working in their favor, the bigger the chance they
will give it another shot in the bars to come.
Note that the retreat from the tease breakout was very modest. The
请注意，从诱导突破的回撤非常温和。接下来的几根K线只是不断向顶部阻力
next few bars simply kept pushing up against the top barrier, a defi­
位施压，这显然是看涨决心的明确迹象。实际上，这四根K线在椭圆形中代表了
nite
sign of bullish determination. In fact, these four bars in the ellipse
教科书式的挤压：它们不仅向顶部阻力位施压（忽略诱导高点），而且另一端
represent
a textbook squeeze: not only did they push up against the
的25ema也给予了支持，轻轻地将K线挤出箱体。对于保守的突破交易者来说，这
top barrier (ignoring the tease high), the 25ema at the other end was
是该领域中最好的交易设置之一，当这种积累悬挂在W型变体的右腿上时，情况
lending a supportive hand, gently squeezing the bars out of the box.
会变得更好。对突破的看涨反应可能有些过火，但所涉及的机制是显而易见的
To a conservative breakout trader, this is one of the best setups in the
：多头在买入，空头在平仓。
field, and it gets even better when the buildup hangs from the right leg
of a W -variant. The bullish response to the breakout may have been a
45
Understanding Price Action
bit over the top, but the mechanics in play are evident: bulls buying in,
bears buying out.
I Fig 3.4\
www.ProRealTime.com
«> ProRealTrne.com
1 2:00
13:00
· 1 .31 5
eurlusd 5-minule
14:00
15:00
1f>00
17:00
16:00
Figure 3.4 Squeeze progressions do not solely occur in the top or bottom
of a range; they can just as well form above or. below an angular pattern
line, with the 2 5ema pushing at the other end (first ellipse) .
A little before this took shape, bulls had broken through a bigger
boundary in bar 4. The buildup leading up to this break was a bit on the
thin side, but the overall conditions were definitely supportive. While
not visible in the snapshot above, we can grasp the bullish nature of
the forgoing action by monitoring the uptrending slope of the 25ema on
the far left. That tells us a bull rally had preceded the 1 - 3 progression.
The latter pattern is often referred to as a bull-flag formation (only the
flag showing) .
The general consensus on a favorable flag pattern is that (a) prices
tend to break away in line with the pole from which the flag is hanging,
and (b) the follow-through on the breakout tends to mimic the length
of the flagpole. Naturally, such fine prospects make these flag patterns
interesting candidates to be traded for continuation (trading a break in
line with the earlier dominance).
Understandable also is that when prices break away from a flag (or
any other pattern) with relatively little buildup preceding the event,
plenty of breakout traders may be left empty-handed on the sidelines.
But there is hope for these parties still. After all, it is quite common for
prices to briefly revisit the pattern they broke away from. We can refer to
46
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
bit
over the top, but the mechanics in play are evident: bulls buying in,
有点过火，但所涉及的机制是显而易见的：多头在买入，空头在平仓。
bears buying out.
Fig 3.4
3.4\
I图
www.ProRealTime.com
«> ProRealTrne.com
1 2:00
13:00
· 1 .31 5
欧元/美元
分钟
eurlusd 5 5-minule
14:00
15:00
1f>00
17:00
16:00
Figure 3.4 Squeeze progressions do not solely occur in the top or bottom
图3.4的挤压进程不仅仅发生在区间的顶部或底部；它们同样可以在角度模式线
of a range; they can just as well form above or. below an angular pattern
的上方或下方形成，而25ema则在另一端施加压力（第一个椭圆）。
line, with the 2 5ema pushing at the other end (first ellipse) .
A little before this took shape, bulls had broken through a bigger
在这一形态形成之前不久，牛市已经突破了第4根柱中的一个更大边界。导致
boundary in bar 4. The buildup leading up to this break was a bit on the
这一突破的积累过程有些薄弱，但整体条件绝对是支持的。虽然在上面的快照
thin side, but the overall conditions were definitely supportive. While
中不可见，但通过监测左侧25ema的上升斜率，我们可以理解前述动作的看涨性
not
visible in the snapshot above, we can grasp the bullish nature of
质。这告诉我们，在1-3进程之前，已经出现了牛市反弹。后者模式通常被称为
the forgoing action by monitoring the uptrending slope of the 25ema on
牛旗形态（仅显示旗帜）。
the far left. That tells us a bull rally had preceded the 1 - 3 progression.
The latter pattern is often referred to as a bull-flag formation (only the
flag showing) .
The general consensus on a favorable flag pattern is that (a) prices
关于有利的旗形模式的普遍共识是：（a）价格倾向于沿着悬挂旗帜的杆子方
tend to break away in line with the pole from which the flag is hanging,
向突破，且（b）突破后的跟进往往模仿旗杆的长度。自然，这些良好的前景使
and (b) the follow-through on the breakout tends to mimic the length
得这些旗形模式成为继续交易的有趣候选者（在早期主导方向上交易突破）。
of the flagpole. Naturally, such fine prospects make these flag patterns
interesting candidates to be traded for continuation (trading a break in
line with the earlier dominance).
可以理解的是，当价格在相对较少的积累之后突破一个旗形（或任何其他
Understandable
also is that when prices break away from a flag (or
any other pattern) with relatively little buildup preceding the event,
模式）时，许多突破交易者可能会被留在场外而空手而归。但这些人仍然有希
plenty of breakout traders may be left empty-handed on the sidelines.
望。毕竟，价格短暂回访它们突破的模式是相当常见的。我们可以称之为
But there is hope for these parties still. After all, it is quite common for
prices to briefly revisit the pattern they broke away from. We can refer to
46
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
this type of pullback as a technical test of the breakout; in many a chart
this is a highly sought-after event for it could offer an opportunity to
catch the breakout in "second instance".
We can tell by the small bars in progression 4-5 that the pullback
was calm and orderly, devoid of bearish aggression. To those who aim
to hop on, this is a favorable development. The more subdued the con­
trarian pressure in the correction, the better the odds for a turnaround
once the pullback's momentum peters out. Opinions may differ on how
to best position oneself for the ride, but two elements are likely to play
a role in the tactics; the first is a pullback line (if one can be drawn
neatly) , the other is a break of a crucial bar in the lows or highs of the
correction.
Sometimes the most "useful" slope of a minor pattern line becomes
evident only at the very last touch before its perforation; still, with every
bar taking five minutes to complete, in most cases there is ample time
to experiment with the angle, even when using the high or low of the
current bar in progress.
Interesting also was the subtle false low of bar 5. This bar had briefly
dipped below its two neighbors but closed back above the 25ema. To
bulls lying in wait to buy themselves in on a pullback reversal, a false
low, even when seemingly minute, is always a welcome feature, for it
shows weakness on the part of the opponent. When bar 5 was taken out
topside, this "technically confirmed" the false low incident (bear break
followed by a bull break) , while coinciding pleasantly with the break of
the pullback line, if plotted as depicted.
Looking closely, the perforation of the pullback line was in fact an­
other bull-flag break (swing 2-4 the pole, progression 4-5 the flag) . It is
very common indeed to see a pullback transform itself into a little flag
variant on top of a bigger broken pattern. Should these smaller flags get
broken in turn, away from the bigger pattern, not seldom that is when
prices pop for real. This chart really shows a textbook example.
Bar the occasional exception of a very stale session, at some point
either a 50 or OO-level will become the topic of a more lengthy fight.
Since many parties tend to focus their attention on these round num­
bers, it is easy to understand the many clashes around them. A tricky
47
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
this type of pullback as a technical test of the breakout; in many a chart
这种回调被视为突破的技术测试；在许多图表中，这是一个备受追捧的事件，因为
this is a highly sought-after event for it could offer an opportunity to
它可能提供一个机会，让人们在“第二次”抓住突破。
catch the breakout in "second instance".
We can tell by the small bars in progression 4-5 that the pullback
我们可以从4-5的细小柱形图中看出，回调是平静而有序的，缺乏看跌的攻击性
was
calm and orderly, devoid of bearish aggression. To those who aim
。对于那些希望参与的人来说，这是一个有利的发展。修正中的反向压力越温和
to
hop on, this is a favorable development. The more subdued the con­
，一旦回调的动能减弱，反弹的几率就越大。关于如何最好地为这次旅程做好准
trarian
pressure in the correction, the better the odds for a turnaround
备，意见可能会有所不同，但有两个因素可能在战术中发挥作用；第一个是回调
once the pullback's momentum peters out. Opinions may differ on how
线（如果可以整齐地绘制），另一个是突破修正低点或高点的关键柱形图。
to best position oneself for the ride, but two elements are likely to play
a role in the tactics; the first is a pullback line (if one can be drawn
neatly) , the other is a break of a crucial bar in the lows or highs of the
correction.
Sometimes the most "useful" slope of a minor pattern line becomes
有时，次要模式线的最“有用”斜率只有在其被穿透之前的最后一次触碰时才
evident only at the very last touch before its perforation; still, with every
会显现；尽管如此，由于每根柱形图的完成时间为五分钟，在大多数情况下，有
bar
taking five minutes to complete, in most cases there is ample time
足够的时间来尝试角度，即使是使用当前正在进行的柱形图的高点或低点。
to experiment with the angle, even when using the high or low of the
current bar in progress.
Interesting also was the subtle false low of bar 5. This bar had briefly
有趣的是，第5根柱的微妙假低。这根柱曾短暂跌破其两个邻近柱，但又回升
dipped below its two neighbors but closed back above the 25ema. To
至25ema之上。对于等待在回调反转时买入的多头来说，即使是看似微小的假低
bulls
lying in wait to buy themselves in on a pullback reversal, a false
，始终是一个受欢迎的特征，因为它显示了对手的弱点。当第5根柱被突破时，
low, even when seemingly minute, is always a welcome feature, for it
这“在技术上确认”了假低事件（熊市突破后随之而来的牛市突破），同时与回调
shows weakness on the part of the opponent. When bar 5 was taken out
线的突破愉快地重合，如果按所示绘制的话。
topside, this "technically confirmed" the false low incident (bear break
followed by a bull break) , while coinciding pleasantly with the break of
the pullback line, if plotted as depicted.
Looking closely, the perforation of the pullback line was in fact an­
仔细观察，回调线的穿透实际上是另一个牛旗突破（摆动2-4为杆，进展4-5
other bull-flag break (swing 2-4 the pole, progression 4-5 the flag) . It is
为旗）。确实很常见，回调会转变为一个较大破碎模式上的小旗变体。如果这
very
common indeed to see a pullback transform itself into a little flag
些较小的旗帜被再次突破，远离较大的模式，价格往往会真正飙升。这张图确
variant
on top of a bigger broken pattern. Should these smaller flags get
实展示了一个教科书式的例子。
broken in turn, away from the bigger pattern, not seldom that is when
prices pop for real. This chart really shows a textbook example.
Bar
the occasional exception of a very stale session, at some point
除了偶尔出现的非常陈旧的交易时段外，在某个时刻，50或00的整数关口将
either
a 50 or OO-level will become the topic of a more lengthy fight.
成为更长时间争斗的话题。由于许多交易方往往将注意力集中在这些整数关口上
Since many parties tend to focus their attention on these round num­
，因此很容易理解围绕它们发生的许多冲突。一个棘手的
bers, it is easy to understand the many clashes around them. A tricky
47
Understanding Price Action
feature of a typical round number skirmish, however, is that the initial
perforation of the level frequently takes place without much protest. It
is when prices start to run out of steam above or below the broken level
that the true fight begins. This tendency of prices to retrace to a broken
round number is what we have termed the adverse magnet effect. There
is no need for the market to immediately put in this test on any first cor­
rection, but it can play a nagging role in the coming action and possibly
keep many traders on the sidelines.
Like the EU / UK morning, the early US session is another volumi­
nous environment. It is often referred to as the UK/US overlap, which
more or less starts an hour before the major US stock markets open for
the day and ends shortly after the close of the London markets (14:3018:00 CET). In the event of a strong rally leading up to the US Open (as
was the case above) , the overlap is known not for its compliance with
but more for its rebellion against this pre-Open pressure. If aware of
these mechanics, bulls sitting tight on their profitable positions will
surely have kept a sharp eye on the action. With no correction of sub­
stance yet, and with even a small bull leg added to the 5-6 breakout,
the current situation was practically untenable. Note the sneaky false
high in bar 7, and the way the bar spun bearishly around, right in the
US Open at 1 5:30.
Technically seen, the total box progression was the market's way
to absorb and assess the 5-7 bull rally. Although no significant lows
were broken yet, the gradual succession of lower tops clearly indicated
that bull parties were no longer so keen on buying in the highs of the
market. Or else their enthusiasm was easily curbed by whatever supply
came forth (including that of fellow bulls selling out) .
In the few bars that preceded the collapse of the box (second ellipse),
tension had been building up in a textbook squeeze: the bars, though
tiny in span, were jammed tight between 25ema on one side and the
box barrier on the other. An interesting cue, favoring the bear side, was
the tiny false high in bar 8; in an attempt to escape the bearish implica­
tions of the squeeze, bulls had taken a shot at an upside break, only to
see their efforts attract no follow-through whatsoever. Such failure may
appear almost nondescript on the chart, but it can have a big impact on
48
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
feature of a typical round number skirmish, however, is that the initial
典型整数关口争斗的特征是，初次突破该水平时通常不会引起太多抗议。真正
perforation of the level frequently takes place without much protest. It
的争斗开始于价格在突破水平之上或之下开始失去动力时。我们称之为不利磁
is
when prices start to run out of steam above or below the broken level
效应的这种价格回撤到突破的整数关口的倾向，并不意味着市场必须在任何第
that the true fight begins. This tendency of prices to retrace to a broken
一次修正时立即进行测试，但它可能在接下来的行动中发挥一个恼人的作用，
round number is what we have termed the adverse magnet effect. There
并可能使许多交易者保持观望。
is no need for the market to immediately put in this test on any first cor­
rection, but it can play a nagging role in the coming action and possibly
keep many traders on the sidelines.
Like the EU / UK morning, the early US session is another volumi­
像欧盟/英国的早晨一样，早期的美国交易时段也是一个交易量巨大的环境
nous
environment. It is often referred to as the UK/US overlap, which
。它通常被称为英美重叠，基本上是在主要美国股市开盘前一个小时开始，并
more
or less starts an hour before the
major US stock markets open for
在伦敦市场收盘后不久结束（14:30-18:00
CET）。如果在美国开盘前出现强劲的反
the day and ends shortly after the close of the London markets (14:30弹（如上文所述），那么重叠时段的特点就不是遵循这种开盘前的压力，而是
18:00 CET). In the event of a strong rally leading up to the US Open (as
更多地反抗这种压力。如果了解这些机制，持有盈利头寸的多头肯定会密切关
was the case above) , the overlap is known not for its compliance with
注市场动态。由于尚未出现实质性的修正，即使在5-6的突破中增加了一小段牛
but more for its rebellion against this pre-Open pressure. If aware of
市腿，当前的情况几乎是不可持续的。注意第7根柱子中的狡猾假高，以及柱子
these mechanics, bulls sitting tight on their profitable positions will
在美国开盘时（15:30）周围的看跌旋转。
surely have kept a sharp eye on the action. With no correction of sub­
stance yet, and with even a small bull leg added to the 5-6 breakout,
the current situation was practically untenable. Note the sneaky false
high in bar 7, and the way the bar spun bearishly around, right in the
US Open at 1 5:30.
Technically seen, the total box progression was the market's way
从技术上看，总体箱体的演变是市场吸收和评估5-7牛市反弹的方式。尽管尚
to
absorb
and assess the 5-7 bull rally. Although no significant lows
未突破任何显著的低点，但逐渐出现的低顶清楚地表明，牛市参与者不再热衷
were
broken yet, the gradual succession of lower tops clearly indicated
于在市场高位买入。否则，他们的热情很容易被随之而来的供应（包括其他牛
that bull parties were no longer so keen on buying in the highs of the
市参与者的抛售）所抑制。
market. Or else their enthusiasm was easily curbed by whatever supply
came forth (including that of fellow bulls selling out) .
In the few bars that preceded the collapse of the box (second ellipse),
在箱体崩溃之前的几根K线中，紧张情绪在教科书式的挤压中逐渐积累：这
tension had been building up in a textbook squeeze: the bars, though
些K线，虽然跨度很小，却被25ema和箱体边界紧紧夹住。一个有趣的线索，支
tiny in span, were jammed tight between 25ema on one side and the
持看空一方，是第8根K线中的微小假高；为了逃避挤压的看跌含义，牛市参与
box barrier on the other. An interesting cue, favoring the bear side, was
者试图进行向上的突破，结果却没有吸引到任何后续的跟进。这种失败在图表
the tiny false high in bar 8; in an attempt to escape the bearish implica­
上可能看起来几乎不起眼，但它可能对市场产生重大影响。
tions of the squeeze, bulls had taken a shot at an upside break, only to
see their efforts attract no follow-through whatsoever. Such failure may
appear almost nondescript on the chart, but it can have a big impact on
48
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
the bullish morale a little further down the line.
Ironically, prior to the box collapse, bears were dealt a little trap of
their own: within its 5-minute span, bar 8 had broken below the range
barrier also, only to close above it again. Such can be the fickle behavior
in a pattern barrier skirmish.
Without delving yet into details of how exactly to have traded this, if
at all, we can imagine the break of the range to be somewhat compro­
mised by the round number level directly below it. Although the number
itself possessed little technical value in this chart (no prior fight around
it, and thus no technical support offered) , the earlier price action had
been very bullish, which may still have left a lot of buy orders lying in
wait to get filled on a pullback to 1 . 3 1 , or even a little below it (com­
mon contrarian practice). On the other hand, with the UK/US overlap
already in its final stage, would bulls really want to step in against a
downside break of the box, knowing that volume would probably be thin
in the hours ahead?
Although we can never be sure of how a break will play out, it is es­
sential to always look at the situation from both sides of the field prior to
taking position. By also reflecting on the vantage point of the opponent,
as opposed to merely looking on the bright side of our own intentions,
we may obtain a better take on the true prospects of the wager at hand.
As it turned out, bulls ostentatiously threw in the towel on the break
of bar 8. The dotted line is put in to mark the near perfect ceiling test
with the high of bar 2 . Whether it was a ceiling test, a double bottom or
even a false low that would have stopped this decline is basically irrel­
evant (we shouldn't be trading there anyway) . But to bears in position,
this level provided an excellent marker to cash in some or all of their
windfall profits from the mini crash; at the same time, it offered heroic
bulls an opportunity to take their chances on a double-pressure pull­
back to the 25ema (9- 1 0 ; not recommended) .
49
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
the bullish morale a little further down the line.
在稍后的时间里，牛市情绪略有回升。
Ironically, prior to the box collapse, bears were dealt a little trap of
具有讽刺意味的是，在箱体崩溃之前，空头们也陷入了一个小陷阱：在其5
their own: within its 5-minute span, bar 8 had broken below the range
分钟的时间内，第8根柱子已经突破了区间障碍，但又重新收回了这个区间。
barrier also, only to close above it again. Such can be the fickle behavior
在模式障碍的冲突中，这种行为是多么反复无常。
in a pattern barrier skirmish.
Without
delving yet into details of how exactly to have traded this, if
在尚未深入探讨如何交易这一情况之前，我们可以想象，区间的突破可能会
at all, we can imagine the break of the range to be somewhat compro­
受到直接位于其下方的整数关口的某种妥协。尽管该数字在此图表中本身并没有
mised by the round number level directly below it. Although the number
太大的技术价值（没有先前的争夺，因此没有提供技术支撑），但早期的价格走
itself
possessed little technical value in this chart (no prior fight around
势非常看涨，这可能仍然留下了大量的买单，等待在回调至1.31或甚至稍低于此
it,
and thus no technical support offered) , the earlier price action had
时被触发（这是常见的逆向交易做法）。另一方面，随着英美市场重叠阶段的接
been
very bullish, which may still have left a lot of buy orders lying in
近尾声，牛市真的会想在箱体的下行突破面前出手吗，考虑到未来几个小时的成
wait to get filled on a pullback to 1 . 3 1 , or even a little below it (com­
交量可能会很稀薄？
mon contrarian practice). On the other hand, with the UK/US overlap
already in its final stage, would bulls really want to step in against a
downside break of the box, knowing that volume would probably be thin
in the hours ahead?
Although we can never be sure of how a break will play out, it is es­
尽管我们永远无法确定一次突破将如何发展，但在采取立场之前，始终从场
sential to always look at the situation from both sides of the field prior to
地的两个方面看待情况是至关重要的。通过反思对手的视角，而不仅仅是关注
taking position. By also reflecting on the vantage point of the opponent,
我们自己意图的光明面，我们可能会更好地了解手中赌注的真实前景。结果，
as
opposed to merely looking on the bright side of our own intentions,
牛市显然在第8根柱子的突破上放弃了。虚线用于标记与第2根柱子高点的几乎
we may obtain a better take on the true prospects of the wager at hand.
完美的顶部测试。无论这是否是顶部测试、双底，甚至是可能会停止这一下跌
As it turned out, bulls ostentatiously threw in the towel on the break
的虚假低点，基本上都是无关紧要的（我们根本不应该在那儿交易）。但对
of bar 8. The dotted line is put in to mark the near perfect ceiling test
于持仓的空头来说，这一水平为他们提供了一个绝佳的标记，可以兑现部分或
with
the high of bar 2 . Whether it was a ceiling test, a double bottom or
全部来自小型崩盘的意外利润；与此同时，它也为勇敢的多头提供了一个机会
even a false low that would have stopped this decline is basically irrel­
，可以在25ema（9-10；不推荐）进行双重压力回调。
evant (we shouldn't be trading there anyway) . But to bears in position,
this level provided an excellent marker to cash in some or all of their
windfall profits from the mini crash; at the same time, it offered heroic
bulls an opportunity to take their chances on a double-pressure pull­
back to the 25ema (9- 1 0 ; not recommended) .
49
Understanding Price Action
IFig 3.51 WHW.ProReaITime.com
U55
eur/usd 5-minute
1.35
It ProRelfTime.com
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
19:00
Figure 3.5 Examine for a moment what happened to a bull who bought
himself in when bar 3 surpassed the high of 1 , bar 4 the high of 3, and
bar 6 the high of 4. These breaks may all have been in line with the
current dominant pressure, but that doesn't necessarily make for great
opportunity. There was no buildup prior to any of them and the moves
that led up to each breakout were already quite "extended". That makes
these breaks very prone to (temporary) failure.
Of course, it is not our business to comment on the tactics of our
fellow traders in the field. Maybe they are tiny scalpers cleverly aim­
ing for a couple of pip as stops are hit above a previous high or low;
or maybe they are trading from a much bigger frame, with their stops
safely placed well above or below the market. But from where we stand,
trading such non-buildup breaks as mentioned above is a losing propo­
sition on the whole.
Pullback 4-5 came to test the broken round number (adverse mag­
net), a feat that coincided with the first touch of the 25ema since the
start of the bull rally-always an interesting development to monitor.
Prices may have sunk a little through, but they held up well in the area
of the big 1 .35.
While it usually requires quite some buildup to set up a barrier break
of a range (at least a small cluster of bars) , pullback reversals, on the
other hand, can be very swift. Sometimes it takes no more than a single
"turnaround bar" in the 2 5ema to set up the reversal in tradable fashion
(5) . In a bull trend, a popular practice is indeed to trade the break of a
bullish bar in the low of a bearish correction, with a stop below the low
50
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
WHW.ProReaITime.com
eur/usd 55-minute
3.51www.ProRealTime.com
IFi
图g3.5
欧元/美元
分钟
U55
1.35
It ProRelfTime.com
14:00
15:00
16:00
17:00
19:00
Figure
3.5 Examine for a moment what happened to a bull who bought
图3.5
请花一点时间思考一下，当第3条超过第1条的高点、第4条超过第3条的高
himself
in when bar 3 surpassed the high of 1 , bar 4 the high of 3, and
点、第6条超过第4条的高点时，牛市是如何自我封闭的。这些突破可能都与当
bar 6 the high of 4. These breaks may all have been in line with the
前的主导压力一致，但这并不一定意味着这是一个很好的机会。在它们之前没
current dominant pressure, but that doesn't necessarily make for great
有任何积累，而导致每次突破的走势已经相当“延伸”。这使得这些突破非常容
opportunity. There was no buildup prior to any of them and the moves
易（暂时）失败。
that led up to each breakout were already quite "extended". That makes
these breaks very prone to (temporary) failure.
Of course, it is not our business to comment on the tactics of our
当然，我们并不想对我们在市场上的同行交易者的战术发表评论。也许他们是
fellow traders in the field. Maybe they are tiny scalpers cleverly aim­
小型剥头皮交易者，巧妙地瞄准在之前的高点或低点上方被击中的几个点；或者他
ing
for a couple of pip as stops are hit above a previous high or low;
们可能是从更大的框架进行交易，止损安全地放置在市场的上方或下方。但从我们
or maybe they are trading from a much bigger frame, with their stops
的角度来看，交易上述没有积累的突破整体上是一个失败的提议。
safely placed well above or below the market. But from where we stand,
trading such non-buildup breaks as mentioned above is a losing propo­
sition on the whole.
Pullback 4-5 came to test the broken round number (adverse mag­
回调4-5测试了破损的整数关口（不利的磁铁），这一事件恰好与自牛市开始
net),
a feat that coincided with the first touch of the 25ema since the
以来首次触及25日均线相吻合——这总是一个值得关注的发展。价格可能稍微下
start of the bull rally-always an interesting development to monitor.
跌，但在1.35这个重要区域内保持得相当不错。
Prices may have sunk a little through, but they held up well in the area
of the big 1 .35.
While
it usually requires quite some buildup to set up a barrier break
虽然通常需要相当长的时间来建立一个区间突破的障碍（至少需要一小簇K
of
a range (at least a small cluster of bars) , pullback reversals, on the
线），但回调反转则可以非常迅速。有时只需在25日均线中出现一根“反转K线”
other hand, can be very swift. Sometimes it takes no more than a single
就能以可交易的方式设置反转（5）。在牛市中，交易者确实常常会在看跌修正
"turnaround bar" in the 2 5ema to set up the reversal in tradable fashion
的低点交易看涨K线的突破，止损设置在低点下方。
(5) . In a bull trend, a popular practice is indeed to trade the break of a
bullish bar in the low of a bearish correction, with a stop below the low
50
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Praaice
of the pullback. When going this route, however, traders are well ad­
vised to make distinctions between a highs-odds turn and its low-odds
counterpart. Bar 7, for example, may have been a classic turnaround
bar also (a so-called doji, showing a very small body on a long tail), but
it set up very poorly for breakout purposes. First off, an entry above it
would have been very close to the high of the foregoing swing (6), leaving
prices little room to "reverse" before running into potential resistance.
Second, the tall span of bar 7 would have demanded a rather wide
technical stop. And third, this stop would have resided quite unpleas­
antly on the path to the OO-level adverse magnet. When compared to
the break of bar 5, the break above bar 7 was of much lesser standing,
if not plain unsavory.
The 25ema by itself never provides support or resistance, it is just
an average. Yet in the continual seesaw motions of price action it is
extremely common to see a pullback of about 40 to 60 percent coin­
cide with the average closing price of the last 25 bars-and not seldom
with some form of technical support as well. The low of bar 7 is a good
example: it tested both the 25ema and the high of bar 5 and this simul­
taneously represented (a) a ceiling test (floor in the 4-5-6 arch) , (b) a
technical test of a former breakout and (c) a 60 percent retracement of
the forgoing swing 5-6. This type of "obvious" support will surely have
contributed to the aggression with which the low of bar 7 was bought
(a popular scalper's tactic) . No such aggression came forth, however, on
the break of bar 7.
On the way down, pullback 8-9 undercut the low of bar 7, but the
more prominent low of pullback 4-5 stood its ground well. This may
have kept the bullish pressure up for the moment, but it was hard to
ignore the magnetic power of that round number level; prices kept com­
ing back to it.
If an initial pattern line had been drawn to connect the turnarounds
of 2 and 5, bar 9 will have fallen below the extension. This doesn't au­
tomatically warrant adjustment, but we best keep the perforation in
mind. Should future price action better line up with the new low, per­
haps it is wise to adjust. Considering the squeeze progression in the
ellipse later on, the line is indeed best plotted as depicted.
51
Chapter 3
第三章
Price Action Principles-Praaice
价格行为原则-实践
of the pullback. When going this route, however, traders are well ad­
然而，采取这种方式时，交易者应当明智地区分高概率反转和低概率反转。例
vised to make distinctions between a highs-odds turn and its low-odds
如，第7根K线可能也是一根经典的反转K线（所谓的十字星，显示出非常小的实
counterpart. Bar 7, for example, may have been a classic turnaround
体和长长的影线），但它在突破方面的设置非常糟糕。首先，若在其上方入场
bar
also (a so-called doji, showing a very small body on a long tail), but
，将非常接近前一个波段的高点（6），这使得价格在遇到潜在阻力之前几乎没
it set up very poorly for breakout purposes. First off, an entry above it
有“反转”的空间。其次，第7根K线的高跨度将要求相当宽的技术止损。第三，
would
have been very close to the high of the foregoing swing (6), leaving
这个止损将非常不方便地位于00关口的不利磁铁的路径上。与第5根K线的突破
prices
little room to "reverse" before running into potential resistance.
相比，第7根K线的突破显得低得多，甚至可以说是不讨好的。
Second, the tall span of bar 7 would have demanded a rather wide
technical stop. And third, this stop would have resided quite unpleas­
antly on the path to the OO-level adverse magnet. When compared to
the break of bar 5, the break above bar 7 was of much lesser standing,
if not plain unsavory.
The
25ema by itself never provides support or resistance, it is just
25日均线本身并不提供支撑或阻力，它只是一个平均值。然而，在价格行动
an
average. Yet in the continual seesaw motions of price action it is
的持续起伏中，看到大约40%到60%的回调与过去25根K线的平均收盘价相吻合是
extremely common to see a pullback of about 40 to 60 percent coin­
极其常见的——而且通常还与某种形式的技术支撑相吻合。第7根K线的低点是
cide with the average closing price of the last 25 bars-and not seldom
一个很好的例子：它同时测试了25日均线和第5根K线的高点，这同时代表了(a)一
with
some form of technical support as well. The low of bar 7 is a good
个天花板测试（在4-5-6的拱形结构中是地板），(b)对前期突破的技术测试，以
example:
it tested both the 25ema and the high of bar 5 and this simul­
及(c)对前一个5-6波段的60%回撤。这种“明显”的支撑无疑促进了第7根K线低点被
taneously
represented (a) a ceiling test (floor in the 4-5-6 arch) , (b) a
买入的激进程度（这是一个流行的短线交易策略）。然而，在第7根K线的突破
technical
test
of a former breakout and (c) a 60 percent retracement of
上，并没有出现这样的激进。
the forgoing swing 5-6. This type of "obvious" support will surely have
contributed to the aggression with which the low of bar 7 was bought
(a popular scalper's tactic) . No such aggression came forth, however, on
the break of bar 7.
On the way down, pullback 8-9 undercut the low of bar 7, but the
在下行过程中，回调8-9突破了第7根K线的低点，但回调4-5的更显著低点却稳
more prominent low of pullback 4-5 stood its ground well. This may
稳守住。这可能在一段时间内保持了看涨压力，但很难忽视那个整数关口的磁力
have kept the bullish pressure up for the moment, but it was hard to
；价格不断回到这个水平。
ignore the magnetic power of that round number level; prices kept com­
ing back to it.
If an initial pattern line had been drawn to connect the turnarounds
如果一条初始的模式线被画出以连接2和5的转折点，那么第9根柱子将会低
of 2 and 5, bar 9 will have fallen below the extension. This doesn't au­
于该延伸线。这并不自动意味着需要调整，但我们最好记住这个穿透。如果未
tomatically
warrant adjustment, but we best keep the perforation in
来的价格走势更好地与新低对齐，也许调整是明智的。考虑到后面椭圆形的挤
mind. Should future price action better line up with the new low, per­
压进程，这条线确实最好如图所示绘制。
haps it is wise to adjust. Considering the squeeze progression in the
ellipse later on, the line is indeed best plotted as depicted.
51
Understanding Price Aaion
Before we take up the ellipse situation, let us first address the bull
swing 9 - 1 0 . This leg headed out quite happily but suffered a nasty blow
when prices approached the former high of bar 8. Try to imagine how
bar 1 0 must have shown a tall white body at some point, only to do a
full turn and close on its low. Bearish dojis in the high of a bull swing
(8 and 10), like bullish dojis in the low of a bear swing (7), can be some­
what intimidating. They are often looked upon as reversal bars, but by
themselves these dojis do not deserve such status. To judge their po­
tential impact, we should always regard them in the light of the overall
picture.
Things indeed had started to look a little less promising for the bulls.
Despite their repeated efforts to leave 1 .35 behind, the adverse magnet
never lost its pull. With now two lower tops standing (8 and 1 0), it was
evident that supply kept coming in at lower levels. If this continued, it
wouldn't take long before the bears would start to sink their teeth in the
round number itself.
On the other hand, let us not overlook the fact that the three major
lows of 2, 5 and 9 were all put in at higher levels, which was still a sign
of underlying demand. Neutrally regarded, the chart showed a standoff
situation with descending tops on one side and ascending bottoms on
the other, in essence a triangle pattern. As with all triangular patterns,
at some point they demand a conclusion.
The four bars within the ellipse set the stage for the chain of events
about to unfold. With prices stuck between pattern line support on one
side and resistance of the 25ema on the other, this was a make-or­
break situation. As long as the line held up, there was hope for the
bulls still, but it wasn't hard to imagine the consequences if they failed
to defend it properly.
The bears, obviously, had a task of their own. With the bars caught
in a classic squeeze, they now had their opponents in striking distance
of defeat. It was crucial not to let them escape.
What will certainly help your understanding of price action is not
just to look at the bars from a technical perspective but to really try to
grasp the extent of psychological forces at work. In the marketplace,
hopes and dreams are built and shattered by the minute and in this
52
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
Before we take up the ellipse situation, let us first address the bull
在我们处理椭圆形的情况之前，让我们先讨论一下牛市的9-10波段。这一
swing 9 - 1 0 . This leg headed out quite happily but suffered a nasty blow
波段起初相当顺利，但在价格接近第8根柱子的前高时遭遇了严重打击。试想
when prices approached the former high of bar 8. Try to imagine how
一下，第10根柱子在某个时刻可能显示出一根高大的白色实体，但最终却完全
bar
1 0 must have shown a tall white body at some point, only to do a
反转并以低位收盘。牛市波段高点的看跌十字星（8和10），就像熊市波段低
full turn and close on its low. Bearish dojis in the high of a bull swing
点的看涨十字星（7），可能会让人感到有些威胁。它们常常被视为反转柱，
(8 and 10), like bullish dojis in the low of a bear swing (7), can be some­
但单凭这些十字星并不值得赋予这样的地位。为了判断它们的潜在影响，我
what
intimidating. They are often looked upon as reversal bars, but by
们应该始终将其置于整体图景中进行考虑。
themselves these dojis do not deserve such status. To judge their po­
tential impact, we should always regard them in the light of the overall
picture.
Things indeed had started to look a little less promising for the bulls.
事情确实开始对多头看起来不那么乐观。尽管他们反复努力想要突破1.35，但
Despite their repeated efforts to leave 1 .35 behind, the adverse magnet
不利的吸引力始终没有减弱。现在有两个更低的高点（8和10），显然供应在更低
never lost its pull. With now two lower tops standing (8 and 1 0), it was
的水平上不断涌入。如果这种情况持续下去，不久之后空头就会开始对这个整数关
evident that supply kept coming in at lower levels. If this continued, it
口下手。
wouldn't take long before the bears would start to sink their teeth in the
round number itself.
On
the other hand, let us not overlook the fact that the three major
另一方面，我们也不能忽视2、5和9这三个主要低点都是在更高的水平上形
lows of 2, 5 and 9 were all put in at higher levels, which was still a sign
成的，这仍然是潜在需求的迹象。从中立的角度来看，图表显示出一种僵持的
of
underlying demand. Neutrally regarded, the chart showed a standoff
局面，一边是下降的高点，另一边是上升的低点，实质上形成了一个三角形模
situation
with descending tops on one side and ascending bottoms on
式。正如所有三角形模式一样，某个时刻它们都需要一个结论。
the other, in essence a triangle pattern. As with all triangular patterns,
at some point they demand a conclusion.
The four bars within the ellipse set the stage for the chain of events
椭圆内的四根柱子为即将发生的事件奠定了基础。价格被困在一侧的模式
about
to unfold. With prices stuck between pattern line support on one
线支撑和另一侧的25ema阻力之间，这是一种生死攸关的局面。只要这条线保
side and resistance of the 25ema on the other, this was a make-or­
持稳定，多头仍然有希望，但如果他们未能妥善防守，后果将不难想象。
break situation. As long as the line held up, there was hope for the
bulls still, but it wasn't hard to imagine the consequences if they failed
to defend it properly.
The
bears, obviously, had a task of their own. With the bars caught
显然，空头有自己的任务。在经典的挤压中，空头现在将对手逼近了失败的
in a classic squeeze, they now had their opponents in striking distance
边缘。至关重要的是不要让他们逃脱。
of defeat. It was crucial not to let them escape.
What will certainly help your understanding of price action is not
帮助你理解价格行为的一个重要方面，不仅仅是从技术角度看待这些蜡烛
just to look at the bars from a technical perspective but to really try to
图，而是要真正理解市场中心理力量的作用。在市场上，期望和梦想每分钟都
grasp the extent of psychological forces at work. In the marketplace,
在建立和破灭，而在这个
hopes and dreams are built and shattered by the minute and in this
52
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Praaice
emotional rat race it is never sure to anyone which side the axe will
fall. One thing is certain, though: the losses of one party will pay for the
profits of the other. Arguably no technical development better illustrates
the pivotal line between victory and defeat than a little squeeze progres­
sion in a critical level of support or resistance.
As prices flipped back and forth between the pattern line and the
25ema, ultimately the market had no choice but to pick sides. For a
brief moment in time, bulls may have felt a sweet tingle of victory when
bar 1 1 managed to break the high of the bullish bar before it. But alas,
as is often seen in a squeeze, follow-through appeared nonexistent and
the break turned out to be a trap.
This is a yet another fine example of how a tiny false break on one
side of the price action can be a harbinger of a major break on the other.
If you were a bull in position and you saw bar 1 1 produce that upside
break only to fully turn around and end on its "lows" (lower region of
the bar), how would you feel? And as the market then proceeded to take
out this bar at the bottom, breaking a major pattern line and round
number in the process, would you still stick around in hopes of sideline
assistance? Or would you rather let go of the rope and sooth your ach­
ing hands. Or better still, take position on the short side yourself1
features of a market slowly turning around from bullish to bearish. It is
The total progression on top of the pattern line shows the typical
interesting to note also that throughout this pattern, plenty of bulls had
taken position on bearish corrections to the round number, and they
even bought a little below it. But the very moment this support caved
in from a buildup situation, the chart dropped 50 pip without a bull in
sight. This shows us most evidently that in the marketplace, it is never
about price, it is all about pressure.
53
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Praaice
价格行为原则-实践
emotional rat race it is never sure to anyone which side the axe will
情感的竞争中，任何一方都无法确定斧头会落在哪一边。不过有一点是肯定
fall. One thing is certain, though: the losses of one party will pay for the
的：一方的损失将为另一方的利润买单。可以说，没有哪个技术发展能更好
profits of the other. Arguably no technical development better illustrates
地说明胜利与失败之间的关键界限，除了在关键支撑或阻力水平上的小挤压
the pivotal line between victory and defeat than a little squeeze progres­
进程。
sion in a critical level of support or resistance.
As prices flipped back and forth between the pattern line and the
当价格在模式线和25ema之间来回波动时，市场最终别无选择，只能选择立场
25ema, ultimately the market had no choice but to pick sides. For a
。在短暂的时间里，牛市可能会感受到胜利的甜蜜快感，因为第11根柱子成功突
brief moment in time, bulls may have felt a sweet tingle of victory when
破了之前的牛市柱子的高点。但可惜的是，正如在挤压中常见的那样，后续的跟
bar
1 1 managed to break the high of the bullish bar before it. But alas,
进似乎并不存在，这次突破最终成了一个陷阱。
as is often seen in a squeeze, follow-through appeared nonexistent and
the break turned out to be a trap.
This is a yet another fine example of how a tiny false break on one
这是一个又一个微小的假突破如何预示着另一侧价格行动的重大突破的绝
side of the price action can be a harbinger of a major break on the other.
佳例子。如果你是一名持有多头头寸的交易者，看到第11根柱子产生了向上的
If you were a bull in position and you saw bar 1 1 produce that upside
突破，却又完全反转并以“低点”（柱子的下部区域）结束，你会有什么感受？
break
only to fully turn around and end on its "lows" (lower region of
而当市场随后突破这根柱子的底部，打破一个主要的模式线和整数关口时，你
the bar), how would you feel? And as the market then proceeded to take
还会继续坚持希望得到旁观者的帮助吗？还是你宁愿放手，让自己痛苦的手得
out this bar at the bottom, breaking a major pattern line and round
到缓解？或者更好的是，自己采取空头头寸！
number in the process, would you still stick around in hopes of sideline
assistance? Or would you rather let go of the rope and sooth your ach­
ing hands. Or better still, take position on the short side yourself1
The total progression on top of the pattern line shows the typical
在模式线之上的总进展显示出市场从看涨逐渐转向看跌的典型特征。值得
features
of a market slowly turning around from bullish to bearish. It is
注意的是，在整个这个模式中，许多多头在回调到整数关口时采取了立场，甚
interesting to note also that throughout this pattern, plenty of bulls had
至在其下方也进行了买入。但就在这个支撑位因积累情况而崩溃的那一刻，图
taken
position on bearish corrections to the round number, and they
表下跌了50个点，毫无多头的身影。这最明显地向我们展示了，在市场上，永
even bought a little below it. But the very moment this support caved
远不是关于价格，而是关于压力。
in from a buildup situation, the chart dropped 50 pip without a bull in
sight. This shows us most evidently that in the marketplace, it is never
about price, it is all about pressure.
53
Understanding Price Action
IFig 3.61
WW'N,ProRearTtme.com
00:00
eur/usd S-minute
10:00
11:00
13:00
Figure 3.6 From the start of the first bar in the EU Open at 08:00, bulls
had shown their intentions quite unambiguously, which had left little
room for bearish opposition. As prices moved higher, bears repeatedly
tried to squeeze out a pullback of substance, but they were all cut short
even before the 25ema was reached. These . failed counterattacks re­
sulted in a number of false lows during the opening rally, of which bar
1 was probably the most distinctive. That was indeed a terrible break to
open up a short and it didn't take much bullish prowess to shake out
the bears involved in that wager.
As is often seen when the market puts in a strong rally, contrar­
ians of the clever variety tend to back off until at least a former area of
support or resistance is touched upon. If no such level is found within
reasonable distance, round numbers tend to make attractive substi­
tutes. It is seldom a smart idea, though, to short or buy straight into a
round number in the hopes of an immediate bounce. As much as you
can "expect" these levels to put up a fight, not seldom they are taken
out more than a bit before the defenders come in. In that respect, the
perforation of the 50-level in bar 2 was actually quite modest.
Pullback 2-3 ate back about 50 percent of the opening rally, which
we know is very common even in the best of trends. Note how bar 3
slightly undercut the low of bar 1 , but then was quickly bought up. An
interesting false low. As prices moved up again to reclaim their position
above the average, they soon ran into resistance of a pattern line com­
ing down from former highs. The initial perforation of this boundary,
despite being in line with dominance, was poorly built up and thus a
54
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
IFig
3.61
图 3.6
WW'N,ProRearTtme.com
00:00
欧元/美元 5S-minute
分钟
eur/usd
10:00
11:00
13:00
Figure
3.6 From the start of the first bar in the EU Open at 08:00, bulls
图3.6
从欧盟开放的第一根柱子开始，牛市毫不含糊地表明了他们的意图，这几
had
shown their intentions quite unambiguously, which had left little
乎没有给空头留下反对的空间。随着价格上涨，空头们反复试图挤出有实质性
room for bearish opposition. As prices moved higher, bears repeatedly
的回调，但在25ema到达之前，这些尝试都被打断。这些失败的反击导致了在开
tried
to squeeze out a pullback of substance, but they were all cut short
盘上涨期间出现了多次虚假低点，其中第一根柱子可能是最具代表性的。那确
even before the 25ema was reached. These . failed counterattacks re­
实是一个糟糕的开盘做空机会，几乎不需要太多的牛市力量就能将参与这一赌
sulted in a number of false lows during the opening rally, of which bar
注的空头震出。
1 was probably the most distinctive. That was indeed a terrible break to
open up a short and it didn't take much bullish prowess to shake out
the bears involved in that wager.
As
is often seen when the market puts in a strong rally, contrar­
当市场进行强劲反弹时，聪明的逆势交易者往往会退缩，直到至少触及一个
ians of the clever variety tend to back off until at least a former area of
以前的支撑或阻力区域。如果在合理的距离内找不到这样的水平，整数关口往
support or resistance is touched upon. If no such level is found within
往会成为吸引人的替代品。然而，直接在整数关口做空或买入以期望立即反弹
reasonable
distance, round numbers tend to make attractive substi­
通常并不是一个明智的选择。尽管你可以“期待”这些水平会进行激烈的争夺，但
tutes.
It is seldom a smart idea, though, to short or buy straight into a
它们往往会在捍卫者出现之前被突破。在这方面，第二根柱子中50水平的突破
round
number in the hopes of an immediate bounce. As much as you
实际上是相当温和的。
can "expect" these levels to put up a fight, not seldom they are taken
out more than a bit before the defenders come in. In that respect, the
perforation of the 50-level in bar 2 was actually quite modest.
Pullback
2-3 ate back
about 50 percent of the opening rally, which
回撤
2-3 吞噬了大约
50% 的开盘涨势，我们知道这在最好的趋势中也很常见
we know is very
even in
the
best of trends. Note how bar 3
。请注意，第
3 根 Kcommon
线略微跌破了第
1根
K 线的低点，但随后很快被买盘拉起
slightly undercut the low of bar 1 , but then was quickly bought up. An
。一个有趣的假低点。当价格再次上涨以收复其在均线上方的地位时，它们很
interesting
false low. As prices moved up again to reclaim their position
快遇到了来自先前高点的模式线的阻力。尽管与主导地位一致，但对该边界的
above the average, they soon ran into resistance of a pattern line com­
最初突破建立得不好，因此是
ing down from former highs. The initial perforation of this boundary,
despite being in line with dominance, was poorly built up and thus a
54
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Praaice
likely candidate to provoke contrarian aggression (4).
The horizontal pattern line points out the triple bottom features of
the 1 -3-5 progression. Being so common an occurrence, we may almost
take for granted that prices tend to bounce on a 50 percent correction
of an earlier rally, but let us not discard the bravery involved to make
this happen. After all, plenty of pullbacks do move on to deeper levels.
By comparison, the task of the breakout trader is not nearly as heroic,
for he will not meddle with the forming of the buildup itself. His job is
simply to piggyback the breakout, should one come forth in tradable
fashion. So how about the break of bar 5?
It's not hard to see why bar 5 was a crucial bar. The low of it helped
to form the triple bottom element and the high ran up against an over­
hanging flag line (squeeze variant) . With both pattern lines converging
sharply, a break, either way, was practically unavoidable. Considering
the bullish dominance from earlier on, and not to mention the bullish
close of bar 5, the odds definitely favored a bull-side breakout.
Bar 6 was a false high with bar 2 and another sign of round number
resistance (note the topping tail) . Leaving also a double top behind (26), this development was likely to produce a pullback of sorts; but not
every bull in position will immediately have feared the pending adverse
pressure. In fact, a modest correction can indirectly favor the trend-side
prospects, for it offers sideline parties a chance to join the trend more
economically, which could serve to put new life in it. Of course, not all
pullbacks will "help the trend along", but it is not for nothing that so
many strategies are specifically designed to exploit the corrective mo­
tions of the market.
Shortly after the 50-level was broken in the 7-8 bull swing, prices fell
prey to the pull of the magnet (8-9) , but confident bulls quickly retali­
ated with another upside attack. This time, however, they failed to take
out their former high. And this put in a lower top at 1 0 .
With nothing but higher lows o n the board and with most prices
trading well above the 25ema, there can be no debate as to the bullish
supremacy in this session. In such an environment, conservative trad­
ers are much advised to shun all bets on the sell side. As to the prospects
for further advance, however, there was a notable indication present
55
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Praaice
价格行为原则-实践
likely candidate to provoke (4)。
contrarian aggression (4).
很可能引发逆势攻击的候选者
The
horizontal pattern
line points out the triple bottom features of
水平模式线指出了
1-3-5 进展的三重底特征。由于这种情况非常普遍，我们几
the 1 -3-5 progression. Being so common
an occurrence, we may almost
乎可以认为价格倾向于在早期反弹的
50% 回调处反弹，但我们不要忽视实现这
take for granted that prices tend to bounce on a 50 percent correction
一目标所涉及的勇气。毕竟，很多回调确实会走向更深的层次。相比之下，突
of
an earlier rally, but let us not discard the bravery involved to make
破交易者的任务远没有那么英勇，因为他不会干预构建本身的形成。他的工作
this
happen. After all, plenty of pullbacks do
move
on to deeper levels.
只是在突破出现可交易形态时顺势而为。那么第
5根
K 线的突破怎么样？
By comparison, the task of the breakout trader is not nearly as heroic,
for he will not meddle with the forming of the buildup itself. His job is
simply to piggyback the breakout, should one come forth in tradable
fashion. So how about the break of bar 5?
It's not hard to see why bar 5 was a crucial bar. The low of it helped
不难看出，第5根柱子是一个关键的柱子。它的低点帮助形成了三重底部元
to
form the triple bottom element and the high ran up against an over­
素，而高点则与悬挂的旗形线（挤压变体）相碰撞。随着两个模式线的急剧收
hanging
flag line (squeeze variant) . With both pattern lines converging
敛，向任一方向的突破几乎是不可避免的。考虑到早期的看涨主导地位，以及
sharply,
a break, either way, was practically unavoidable. Considering
第5根柱子的看涨收盘，显然，牛市突破的概率更高。
the bullish dominance from earlier on, and not to mention the bullish
close of bar 5, the odds definitely favored a bull-side breakout.
Bar 6 was a false high with bar 2 and another sign of round number
第6根柱子是一个虚假的高点，与第2根柱子形成了一个双顶，并且是圆整
resistance
(note the topping tail) . Leaving also a double top behind (2数字阻力的另一个迹象（注意顶部影线）。留下了一个双顶（2-6），这一发
6),
this development was likely to produce a pullback of sorts; but not
展可能会产生某种程度的回调；但并不是所有持有多头头寸的人都会立即担心
every bull in position will immediately have feared the pending adverse
即将到来的不利压力。事实上，适度的修正间接有利于趋势方向的前景，因为
pressure. In fact, a modest correction can indirectly favor the trend-side
它为场外参与者提供了以更经济的方式加入趋势的机会，这可能会为其注入新
prospects,
for it offers sideline parties a chance to join the trend more
的活力。当然，并不是所有的回调都会“帮助趋势”，但并不是没有原因，许多
economically,
which could serve to put new life in it. Of course, not all
策略专门设计用来利用市场的修正运动。
pullbacks will "help the trend along", but it is not for nothing that so
many strategies are specifically designed to exploit the corrective mo­
tions of the market.
Shortly after the 50-level was broken in the 7-8 bull swing, prices fell
在7-8牛市波动中突破50水平后不久，价格受到磁力的影响（8-9），但自信
prey to the pull of the magnet (8-9) , but confident bulls quickly retali­
的多头迅速反击，发起了另一轮上涨攻击。然而，这一次，他们未能突破之前
ated with another upside attack. This time, however, they failed to take
的高点。这在10处形成了一个较低的顶部。
out their former high. And this put in a lower top at 1 0 .
With nothing but higher lows o n the board and with most prices
在图表上只有更高的低点，并且大多数价格都在25ema之上交易，这使得本次
trading
well above the 25ema, there can be no debate as to the bullish
交易会的多头优势毋庸置疑。在这样的环境下，保守的交易者被强烈建议避免所
supremacy in this session. In such an environment, conservative trad­
有卖出方面的投注。至于进一步上涨的前景，然而，有一个显著的迹象出现
ers are much advised to shun all bets on the sell side. As to the prospects
for further advance, however, there was a notable indication present
55
Understanding Price Action
that the market had entered a zone of stronger resistance. Have a look
at the 7-8-9- 1 0- 1 1 progression, and particularly the part on top of the
round number. It is an interesting variant of the classic double top and
we can refer to it as the M-pattem. Earlier on, we already came across
its bullish counterpart, the W -pattern. Both are very potent buildup
formations and seldom hard to detect; but their breaks are best traded
in line with dominance. When broken the other way around, as with
the M-pattern here, the market's response can still be quite powerful,
because the event could prompt many parties to exit. We should never
take these patterns lightly.
The dotted line is put in to point out a classic ceiling test example
(low of 1 2 tests high of 7), but with the M-pattern block now hanging
ominously above, there wasn't much room for a serious bounce .
. WW'W.ProRealTIma.com
eur/usd 5-minute
IFig 3.71
Figure 3.7 It took the bears a mere five candles in the UK morning to
produce a vicious 80 pip rally that would put its undeniable mark on
the rest of the session ( 1 -2). Once the action calmed down a bit, bulls
tried to regain some of the territory lost, but all they could manage, re­
ally, was to stem the decline. This formed what is generally referred to
as a bear-flag progression (2-4). Common perception has it that a flag
pattern builds up to a break in line with the pole from which it hangs
(continuation break). This is indeed a regular occurrence, but some im­
portant distinctions need to be made; when acting on the implications
of our technical patterns too eagerly, we may end up getting hurt more
than benefit from them.
56
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
that the market had entered a zone of stronger resistance. Have a look
表明市场已进入更强的阻力区。看看7-8-9-10-11的进程，特别是圆形数字顶部的
at the 7-8-9- 1 0- 1 1 progression, and particularly the part on top of the
部分。这是经典双顶的有趣变体，我们可以称之为M形态。早些时候，我们已经
round number. It is an interesting variant of the classic double top and
遇到了它的看涨对应物，即W形态。这两者都是非常强大的积累形态，通常不难
we can refer to it as the M-pattem. Earlier on, we already came across
识别；但它们的突破最好与主导趋势一致。当像这里的M形态那样反向突破时，
its
bullish counterpart, the W -pattern. Both are very potent buildup
市场的反应仍然可能非常强烈，因为这一事件可能促使许多参与者退出。我们
formations and seldom hard to detect; but their breaks are best traded
绝不能轻视这些形态。
in line with dominance. When broken the other way around, as with
the M-pattern here, the market's response can still be quite powerful,
because the event could prompt many parties to exit. We should never
take these patterns lightly.
The dotted line is put in to point out a classic ceiling test example
虚线的目的是指出一个经典的顶部测试示例（12次测试的低点和7次的高点
(low of 1 2 tests high of 7), but with the M-pattern block now hanging
），但随着M形图案的区块阴森地悬挂在上方，几乎没有反弹的空间。
ominously above, there wasn't much room for a serious bounce .
. WW'W.ProRealTIma.com
欧元/美元
eur/usd5 分钟
5-minute
IFig
图3.7
3.71
Figure
3.7 It took the bears a mere five candles in the UK morning to
图3.7
在英国早晨，空头仅用五根蜡烛就发动了一场猛烈的80点反弹，这在整个交
produce
a vicious 80 pip rally that would put its undeniable mark on
易时段中留下了不可否认的印记（1-2）。一旦行情稍微平静下来，多头试图收复
the rest of the session ( 1 -2). Once the action calmed down a bit, bulls
一些失去的领土，但他们所能做到的，实际上只是阻止了下跌。这形成了通常所
tried
to regain some of the territory lost, but all they could manage, re­
称的熊旗形态（2-4）。普遍的看法是，旗形模式的构建是为了与其悬挂的杆子形
ally, was to stem the decline. This formed what is generally referred to
成一致的突破（延续性突破）。这确实是一个常见的现象，但需要做一些重要的
as a bear-flag progression (2-4). Common perception has it that a flag
区分；当我们过于急切地根据技术图形的暗示采取行动时，可能会遭受比受益更
pattern builds up to a break in line with the pole from which it hangs
多的伤害。
(continuation break). This is indeed a regular occurrence, but some im­
portant distinctions need to be made; when acting on the implications
of our technical patterns too eagerly, we may end up getting hurt more
than benefit from them.
56
Cllapter 3
Price Action Principles-Praaice
A first major factor in the way a break is received is its location in
relation to the 25ema. On balance, the "further away" entry is taken
from the average, the more riskier the trade, particularly when using
tight stops. Even in a trending market, prices will always try to correct
towards the 25ema, which basically turns the average into a perpetual
magnet. With this tendency in mind, one of the most effective filters you
can build into you trading method is to allow prices, in the vast major­
ity of cases, to reach the average first before participating on a venture
away from it. Such simple selectivity stands to improve the odds for a
successful start of your trade most dramatically.
Another issue to take into account is the shape of the flag in rela­
tion to the size of the pole. When a relatively small flag hangs from a
relatively large pole, participants may view the relation between the two
as a bit "off' and thus be reluctant to trade the break of the flag. This
concept is related to the principle of harmony and we will take it up in
more detail in the section on our entry techniques in Chapter 5 .
A flag break of the poisonous variety is shown below bar 4. Not only
did this break originate from a rather small flag (in relation to its pole
1 -2), just look at the distance away from the 25ema-that is huge!
Another thing that strongly contributes to the danger of trading a
and, rest assured, they do possess a very keen eye for their favorite play.
premature break is that contrarians are always on the lookout for them
In other words, next to finding few companions to get his poor break
going, the premature trader stands to encounter lots of participants
of the dreaded other camp. Further adding to his troubles is the often
treacherous behavior of his fellow traders at the first signs of faltering
follow-through. Consider the 5-6 maneuver. That was not just the doing
of powerful bulls, bears were toppling over one another in their hurried
flight to safety.
Interesting to note also is that it took just one bar to fully crush the
prospect of bearish continuation (5). We can refer to a bar of this cali­
ber (in relation to the average size of neighboring bars) as a powerbar,
meaning that it opens at one end and then closes strongly at the other.
Looking closely, we can detect a virtual copy of this bar at 3 . That, too,
was a strong powerbar in defiance of the bearish pressure, but since it
57
Cllapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Praaice
价格行为原则-实践
A first major factor in the way a break is received is its location in
一个主要因素是突破的地点相对于25日均线的位置。总体而言，离均线越远
relation
to the 25ema. On balance, the "further away" entry is taken
的入场点，交易的风险就越大，特别是在使用紧止损的情况下。即使在趋势市
from the average, the more riskier the trade, particularly when using
场中，价格总会试图向25日均线修正，这基本上使得均线成为一个永恒的磁铁
tight stops. Even in a trending market, prices will always try to correct
。考虑到这一倾向，您可以在交易方法中构建的最有效的过滤器之一是允许价
towards the 25ema, which basically turns the average into a perpetual
格在绝大多数情况下先到达均线，然后再参与远离均线的交易。这种简单的选
magnet.
With this tendency in mind, one of the most effective filters you
择性将显著提高您交易成功开始的几率。
can build into you trading method is to allow prices, in the vast major­
ity of cases, to reach the average first before participating on a venture
away from it. Such simple selectivity stands to improve the odds for a
successful start of your trade most dramatically.
Another issue to take into account is the shape of the flag in rela­
另一个需要考虑的问题是旗形的形状与杆子的大小之间的关系。当一个相
tion to the size of the pole. When a relatively small flag hangs from a
对较小的旗帜悬挂在一个相对较大的杆子上时，参与者可能会觉得两者之间
relatively large pole, participants may view the relation between the two
的关系有些“失调”，因此不愿意交易旗形的突破。这个概念与和谐原则有关，
as a bit "off' and thus be reluctant to trade the break of the flag. This
我们将在第5章的入场技巧部分更详细地讨论。
concept is related to the principle of harmony and we will take it up in
more detail in the section on our entry techniques in Chapter 5 .
A flag break of the poisonous variety is shown below bar 4. Not only
在第4根柱子下方显示了一个有毒品种的旗形突破。这个突破不仅源自于相对
did
this break originate from a rather small flag (in relation to its pole
较小的旗帜（相对于其杆1-2），而且距离25ema的距离也很大！
1 -2), just look at the distance away from the 25ema-that is huge!
Another thing that strongly contributes to the danger of trading a
另一个强烈影响交易过早突破危险的因素是，逆势交易者总是在寻找它们，
premature break is that contrarians are always on the lookout for them
并且可以放心，他们对自己最喜欢的玩法有着非常敏锐的眼光。换句话说，除
and, rest assured, they do possess a very keen eye for their favorite play.
了找到几个同伴来推动他的可怜突破外，过早的交易者还将面临来自可怕的另
In other words, next to finding few companions to get his poor break
一方的大量参与者。进一步增加他麻烦的是，在首次出现跟进乏力的迹象时，
going,
the premature trader stands to encounter lots of participants
他的同伴交易者往往表现得非常危险。考虑一下5-6的操作。这不仅仅是强大的
of the dreaded other camp. Further adding to his troubles is the often
多头的作为，空头们也在急于逃命中互相推搡。
treacherous behavior of his fellow traders at the first signs of faltering
follow-through. Consider the 5-6 maneuver. That was not just the doing
of powerful bulls, bears were toppling over one another in their hurried
flight to safety.
Interesting
to note also is that it took just one bar to fully crush the
同样值得注意的是，仅仅一根K线就完全粉碎了看跌延续的可能性（5）。我
prospect
of bearish continuation (5). We can refer to a bar of this cali­
们可以将这种级别的K线（相对于相邻K线的平均大小而言）称为力量K线，意味
ber
(in relation to the average size of neighboring bars) as a powerbar,
着它在一端开盘，然后在另一端强势收盘。仔细观察，我们可以在3处发现这
meaning
that it opens at one end and then closes strongly at the other.
根K线的虚拟副本。那也是一根强大的力量K线，无视看跌压力，但由于它是第
Looking
closely, we can detect a virtual copy of this bar at 3 . That, too,
一个出现的，因此其威慑力较小。
was a strong powerbar in defiance of the bearish pressure, but since it
57
Understanding Price Action
was the first to show up, its intimidating presence possessed less of a
bite. Bar 5 , on the other hand, showed up after a sideways progression
had already stalled the bearish momentum (buildup) , and it confirmed
a failed flag breakout to boot. Understandably, this time around more
bears will have taken heed of the adverse implications, not in the least
since progression 2-5 bore all the characteristics of a W-reversal break.
To visualize the full W-pattern, start out with the left leg at 1 , follow
the up/down motions in the bottom of the bear rally and then imagine
the upside break of bar 5 to provoke a bull rally all the way up to the
level of 1 . In practice, however, such symmetry is quite exceptional, and
not very relevant either. In the vast majority of cases, the element of
most significance in the W-pattern is not the right leg, but the middle­
part progression following the left leg (2-5). The blockier this cluster
shows up, the more likely that bears will bail out on an upside break of
it. Moreover, when this block shows a powerbar on the right, as was the
case with bar 5, bears with tight stops may not even wait for the middle­
part's high to be taken out; they may use the break of the powerbar to
exit immediately. (Naturally, in the highs of a bull swing, the same thing
applies to an M-pattern situation.)
Do bear in mind, though, that when set against the dominant
pressure, a middle-part break may still fail to attract substantial follow­
through, or could even be a trap. In most cases it is recommended not
to jump in on these breaks, but to use them mainly for exiting purposes
when already in position. (See Chapter 6 on Manual Exits.)
On the way to fill the gap with the average, the 5-7 pullback had
encountered little bearish opposition. But the tiny bars in the top of the
correction let on that the bullish enthusiasm was wearing awfully thin.
Surely the round number zone will have played its part here as well;
sooner bears would short from that level than get out of the way above
it. There are multiple ways to have traded this turn, but the conservative
route is to wait for a decent sell signal first. This came presented when
the bull break in bar 7 failed to attract any follow-through whatsoever
and then was followed by a bear break in turn (false high confirmation) .
An added bonus, for the bears, was to see the break coincide with the
perforation of the dotted pullback line.
58
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
was
the first to show up, its intimidating presence possessed less of a
另一方面，K线5出现在横盘整理已经阻止了看跌势头（积累）之后，并且证实
bite. Bar 5 , on the other hand, showed up after a sideways progression
了失败的旗形突破。可以理解的是，这一次更多的空头会注意到不利影响，尤
had already stalled the bearish momentum (buildup) , and it confirmed
其是在2-5的进展具有W型反转突破的所有特征的情况下。为了可视化完整的W
a failed flag breakout to boot. Understandably, this time around more
型形态，从1处的左腿开始，沿着熊市反弹底部的上下运动，然后想象K线5的
bears will have taken heed of the adverse implications, not in the least
向上突破，引发牛市反弹一直到1的水平。然而，在实践中，这种对称性非常
since
progression 2-5 bore all the characteristics of a W-reversal break.
罕见，而且也不是很重要。在绝大多数情况下，W型形态中最重要的因素不是
To visualize the full W-pattern, start out with the left leg at 1 , follow
右腿，而是左腿之后的中间部分进展（2-5）。这个集群越密集，空头就越
the
up/down motions in the bottom of the bear rally and then imagine
有可能在向上突破时退出。此外，当这个区块在右侧显示出力量K线时，就像K
the upside break of bar 5 to provoke a bull rally all the way up to the
线5的情况一样，止损位较紧的空头甚至可能不会等待中间部分的高点被突破
level of 1 . In practice, however, such symmetry is quite exceptional, and
；他们可能会利用力量K线的突破立即退出。（当然，在牛市上涨的高点，同
not
very relevant either. In the vast majority of cases, the element of
样的事情也适用于M型形态。）
most significance in the W-pattern is not the right leg, but the middle­
part progression following the left leg (2-5). The blockier this cluster
shows up, the more likely that bears will bail out on an upside break of
it. Moreover, when this block shows a powerbar on the right, as was the
case with bar 5, bears with tight stops may not even wait for the middle­
part's high to be taken out; they may use the break of the powerbar to
exit immediately. (Naturally, in the highs of a bull swing, the same thing
applies to an M-pattern situation.)
Do bear in mind, though, that when set against the dominant
请记住，当面临主导压力时，中间部分的突破可能仍然无法吸引到实质
pressure, a middle-part break may still fail to attract substantial follow­
性的后续跟进，甚至可能是一个陷阱。在大多数情况下，建议不要在这些突
through, or could even be a trap. In most cases it is recommended not
破时贸然进入，而是主要用于在已经持有头寸时退出。（见第六章关于手动
to
jump in on these breaks, but to use them mainly for exiting purposes
退出的内容。）
when already in position. (See Chapter 6 on Manual Exits.)
On the way to fill the gap with the average, the 5-7 pullback had
在填补与平均值之间的缺口时，5-7的回调几乎没有遇到任何看跌的阻力。但
encountered
little bearish opposition. But the tiny bars in the top of the
修正顶部的小柱子表明，牛市的热情正在急剧减弱。显然，整数关口在这里也
correction
let on that the bullish enthusiasm was wearing awfully thin.
发挥了作用；空头宁愿在该水平做空，也不愿在其上方退让。交易这一转折的
Surely the round number zone will have played its part here as well;
方式有多种，但保守的做法是首先等待一个合理的卖出信号。这一信号在第7根
sooner bears would short from that level than get out of the way above
柱子的牛市突破未能吸引任何后续跟进后出现，随后紧接着是一个看跌的突破（
it.
There are multiple ways to have traded this turn, but the conservative
虚假高点确认）。对空头来说，额外的好处是看到这一突破与虚线回调线的穿
route
is to wait for a decent sell signal first. This came presented when
透同时发生。
the bull break in bar 7 failed to attract any follow-through whatsoever
and then was followed by a bear break in turn (false high confirmation) .
An added bonus, for the bears, was to see the break coincide with the
perforation of the dotted pullback line.
58
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
On the way down again, suddenly a mean bullish powerbar came to
attack the round number from below (8). It is never a pleasant sight to
see a strong adverse move defy a fresh trade, but it is good to remember
that the markets are not designed for comfort. By remaining calm and
attentive, a bear could assess that none of the favorable elements on
which his position was based had been overthrown by that bullying bar.
The trend was still down, prices were still below the 25ema, the round
number could work as resistance and so could the ceiling test with the
low of bar 7, which was also a technical test of a former breakout.
Given all the violence from earlier on, it may seem a bit odd that no
further follow-through came forth in the new low at 9, but it is actually
quite common. We very often see the UK morning put in a strong rally
in no more than a handful of bars, only to then absorb that action in a
sideways meandering motion until the US Open at 1 5 :30 CET. In these
slower phases, breakout traders tend to be more picky and this usu­
ally sits well with the contrarian game. Their favorite practice, however,
is to counter a break against dominance in a 40/60 percent retrace­
ment area (seen from the viewpoint of the rally) . For example, notice
the typical contrarian response when bar 1 1 had surpassed the high of
bar 10, or when bar 13 had come to take out the high of bar 7. True,
contrarians hadn't back away from the break in bar 9 either, if only for
its total lack of buildup, but this had required more bravery to pull off,
simply because the break through the session low was set in line with
dominance.
There are bear and bull opportunities in any market, but when it
comes to finding substantial follow-through (say, at least 20 pip), it is
much advised to position oneself in line with the dominant pressure.
In a lengthy sideways correction, it may take quite a while for a break
to set up in high-odds fashion, but do not let this discourage you from
staying put. In almost any session, sooner or later an opportunity will
come. Always handy is to already put in a pattern line across the highs
or lows of most relevance and then extend it to the right for future
purposes (9- 1 2- 1 4 plus extension); with a fine line in place, it is then
merely a matter of keeping good track of the buildup.
Note how the bars immediately fattened up around the US Open
59
Chapter 3
第三章
Price Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
On the way down again, suddenly a mean bullish powerbar came to
在再次下跌的过程中，突然出现了一根强劲的看涨大阳线，从下方攻击这个整
attack the round number from below (8). It is never a pleasant sight to
数关口（8）。看到强烈的逆势走势挑战新开仓位并不是一件令人愉快的事情，但
see a strong adverse move defy a fresh trade, but it is good to remember
要记住，市场并不是为了让人感到舒适而设计的。保持冷静和专注，空头可以评
that the markets are not designed for comfort. By remaining calm and
估他的头寸所依赖的有利因素并没有被这根强势的阳线推翻。趋势依然向下，价
attentive, a bear could assess that none of the favorable elements on
格仍然低于25日指数移动平均线，整数关口可能会作为阻力位，而第7根柱子的低
which
his position was based had been overthrown by that bullying bar.
点也可能作为阻力位，这也是对之前突破的技术测试。
The trend was still down, prices were still below the 25ema, the round
number could work as resistance and so could the ceiling test with the
low of bar 7, which was also a technical test of a former breakout.
Given all the violence from earlier on, it may seem a bit odd that no
考虑到之前的剧烈波动，似乎在9号的新低没有进一步的跟进有些奇怪，但这
further follow-through came forth in the new low at 9, but it is actually
实际上是相当常见的。我们经常看到英国早盘在短短几根柱子内出现强劲反弹，
quite common. We veryCET之前，吸收这些动作，进入一种横盘整理的状态。
often see the UK morning put in a strong rally
然后在美国开盘前的15:30
in
no more than a handful of bars, only to then absorb that action in a
在这些较慢的阶段，突破交易者往往会更加挑剔，这通常与逆势交易的策略相得
sideways meandering motion until the US Open at 1 5 :30 CET. In these
益彰。然而，他们最喜欢的做法是反向突破主导趋势，在40/60%的回撤区域进行
slower phases, breakout traders tend to be more picky and this usu­
交易（从反弹的角度来看）。例如，注意当第11根柱子超过第10根柱子的高点时
ally
sits well with the contrarian game. Their favorite practice, however,
，或者当第13根柱子突破第7根柱子的高点时，典型的逆势反应。确实，逆势交
is
to counter a break against dominance in a 40/60 percent retrace­
易者在第9根柱子的突破中也没有退缩，尽管这完全没有任何积累，但这需要更
ment area (seen from the viewpoint of the rally) . For example, notice
多的勇气来执行，因为突破会话低点的行为与主导趋势是一致的。
the typical contrarian response when bar 1 1 had surpassed the high of
bar 10, or when bar 13 had come to take out the high of bar 7. True,
contrarians hadn't back away from the break in bar 9 either, if only for
its total lack of buildup, but this had required more bravery to pull off,
simply because the break through the session low was set in line with
dominance.
There are bear and bull opportunities in any market, but when it
在任何市场中都有牛市和熊市的机会，但当涉及到寻找实质性的跟进（例
comes
to finding substantial follow-through (say, at least 20 pip), it is
如，至少20个点）时，建议将自己定位于主导压力的方向。在漫长的横盘修
much advised to position oneself in line with the dominant pressure.
正中，可能需要相当长的时间才能以高概率的方式建立突破，但不要让这阻
In a lengthy sideways correction, it may take quite a while for a break
止你坚持下去。在几乎任何交易时段，总会有机会出现。提前在最相关的高
to set up in high-odds fashion, but do not let this discourage you from
点或低点上画一条模式线，并将其向右延伸以备将来使用（9-12-14加延伸）
staying
put. In almost any session, sooner or later an opportunity will
是非常有用的；有了这条细线，接下来只是保持对积累情况的良好跟踪。
come. Always handy is to already put in a pattern line across the highs
or lows of most relevance and then extend it to the right for future
purposes (9- 1 2- 1 4 plus extension); with a fine line in place, it is then
merely a matter of keeping good track of the buildup.
Note how the bars immediately fattened up around the US Open
注意在美国开盘时，柱子立即变得更加粗壮
59
Understanding Price Action
at 1 5: 30, as is often seen also in the EU and UK Open. The five bars
in the ellipse represent a pattern line battle. Although the 25ema was
running flatly through this progression, this was a squeeze variant too,
because the bars were now caught between support of the pattern line
and resistance of the round number. Despite an initial perforation of
the pattern line, bulls did their best to prevent the break from following
through (note the three identical lows outside of it), but ultimately were
forced to throw in the towel.
IFig 3.81
.....P,oR
..w
••lTime. com
eu,fusd 5-minut.
·+·T.!D�l
0ProReelTime£OlTl
I
04:00
05'00
06:00
2
07:00
T
ceoo
09:00
Figure 3.8 We can tell by the slope of the 25ema on the far left that there
had been a decent selloff in the early Asian hours. What followed was a
50-level fight that lasted all the way to the start of UK session. Around
07:00 there was still no denying the bearish dominance, but with the
EU and UK Open coming up shortly (08:00 and 09: 00), it remained to
be seen how this Asian trend would stand its ground against the often
rebellious thrusts of the new morning volume.
Pullback 2-3 was the first bull attack to emerge, but as soon as the
charge petered out, a little above the round number, the market sold
off again (3-T). The subsequent barrier perforation at T, however, was a
break of the poor variety. It is kindly annotated as a tease, but we might
as well classify it as a false break trap (no buildup whatsoever). This
left the bears very exposed, right in the EU Open at 08:00. The T -4 bull
response is the textbook answer to such situation.
Note: Even before the low of 6 had come to match the low of 2 , the
bottom barrier of the box could already have been plotted as depicted.
60
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
at 1 5: 30, as is often seen also in the EU and UK Open. The five bars
在15:30，正如在欧盟和英国开盘时常见的那样。椭圆中的五根柱子代表了一场
in
the ellipse represent a pattern line battle. Although the 25ema was
模式线的战斗。尽管25ema在这个过程中运行得很平稳，但这也是一种挤压变体
running flatly through this progression, this was a squeeze variant too,
，因为柱子现在被模式线的支撑和整数的阻力夹住。尽管模式线最初被穿透，
because the bars were now caught between support of the pattern line
但多头尽力阻止突破的跟进（注意外部的三个相同低点），但最终被迫放弃。
and resistance of the round number. Despite an initial perforation of
the pattern line, bulls did their best to prevent the break from following
through (note the three identical lows outside of it), but ultimately were
forced to throw in the towel.
IFi图g3.83.81
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Figure
3.8 We can tell by the slope of the 25ema on the far left that there
图3.8
我们可以从左侧的25日指数移动平均线的斜率看出，早期亚洲时段确实出
had been a decent selloff in the early Asian hours. What followed was a
现了一波不错的抛售。接下来是一个50级的争夺战，持续到英国时段开始。大约
50-level fight that lasted all the way to the start of UK session. Around
在07:00时，空头的主导地位依然不容否认，但随着欧盟和英国市场即将开盘（08
07:00 there was still no denying the bearish dominance, but with the
:00和09:00），这波亚洲趋势能否抵挡住新早晨交易量的反扑，仍然有待观察。
EU and UK Open coming up shortly (08:00 and 09: 00), it remained to
be seen how this Asian trend would stand its ground against the often
rebellious thrusts of the new morning volume.
Pullback 2-3 was the first bull attack to emerge, but as soon as the
回调2-3是首次出现的牛市攻击，但当冲击在接近整数关口时减弱，市场再次
charge
petered out, a little above the round number, the market sold
下跌（3-T）。然而，在T处的后续障碍穿透是一次劣质的突破。它被亲切地标注
off
again (3-T). The subsequent barrier perforation at T, however, was a
为挑逗，但我们不妨将其归类为虚假突破陷阱（根本没有积累）。这使得空头在
break of the poor variety. It is kindly annotated as a tease, but we might
08:00的欧盟开盘时非常暴露。T-4的牛市反应是这种情况的教科书式答案。
as well classify it as a false break trap (no buildup whatsoever). This
left the bears very exposed, right in the EU Open at 08:00. The T -4 bull
response is the textbook answer to such situation.
Note: Even before the low of 6 had come to match the low of 2 , the
注意：即使在6的低点尚未与2的低点相匹配之前，箱体的底部障碍已经可以如
bottom barrier of the box could already have been plotted as depicted.
图所示绘制。
60
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
Whenever there is a false high or low involved (T), here's a tip: sooner
place your range barrier at the level before the perforation. On subse­
quent touches, the market tends to show more respect for the earlier
high or low (6 matches 2 instead of T). As a technical rationale, we
could say that a false perforation sooner acknowledges the foregoing
level than invalidates it. For another example, have a look at how the
high of bar 9 lined up with the high of bar 1 , thereby ignoring F. (For
an earlier variant, check Figure 3.6 and the 1 -3-5 situation.) Although
applicable in basically any box situation, this principle of barrier prefer­
ence may come in real handy when having to plot a box over a much
wider span, so as not to lose track of the level of most relevance when
buildup starts to form. Of course, when the current price action starts
to line up more neatly with a level of a false perforation, we should see
no problem in adjusting our barriers accordingly.
When the high of bar 4 hit upon the low of bar 3 , a ceiling test was
a fact and it was now up to the bears to take advantage of it. It took a
little skirmish in the round number, and a mini false high at 5 , but then
the bulls were forced to retreat, and not much later prices were pushing
down against the bottom barrier once more (6) .
At this stage, we can imagine the bears to have felt pretty content
with the way things were going. Not only had they successfully fended
off the first bull attack in the EU Open (T -5) , the overall pressure still
pointed pleasantly south and prices were now favorably positioned in
the low of the market again. Little did they know they were in for a rude
awakening.
Ironically, even though the powerful 6- F bull surge had crushed all
bearish hopes for further decline, it ended with a classic bull trap of its
own (F) . Notice also that the F-8 response was a virtual mirror image of
the T -4 response at the other end of the range.
When confronted with a failed breakout, the attacking parties basi­
cally face two options: they could either retreat in full or give it another
shot. Apart from market pressure, an element that tends to have large
say in this matter is whether the initial break was set with or without
buildup. In case of a non-buildup failure, as shown at T and F, chances
are good that the attackers will want to give it another try.
61
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
Whenever there is a false high or low involved (T), here's a tip: sooner
每当涉及虚假高点或低点（T）时，这里有个小提示：尽早将你的范围障碍设置
place your range barrier at the level before the perforation. On subse­
在穿透之前的水平。在随后的触及中，市场往往会对早期的高点或低点（6与2
quent touches, the market tends to show more respect for the earlier
相匹配而不是T）表现出更多的尊重。从技术上讲，我们可以说，虚假穿透更早
high or low (6 matches 2 instead of T). As a technical rationale, we
地承认了之前的水平，而不是使其失效。另一个例子是，看看第9根柱的高点是
could say that a false perforation sooner acknowledges the foregoing
如何与第1根柱的高点对齐，从而忽略了F。（有关早期变体，请查看图3.6和1-3level than invalidates it. For another example, have a look at how the
5情况。）虽然基本上适用于任何箱体情况，但这种障碍偏好原则在需要在更宽
high
of bar 9 lined up with the high of bar 1 , thereby ignoring F. (For
的范围内绘制箱体时可能会非常有用，以免在积累开始形成时失去最相关水平
an
earlier variant, check Figure 3.6 and the 1 -3-5 situation.) Although
的踪迹。当然，当当前的价格走势与虚假穿透的水平更整齐地对齐时，我们应
applicable
in basically any box situation, this principle of barrier prefer­
该毫无问题地相应调整我们的障碍。
ence may come in real handy when having to plot a box over a much
wider span, so as not to lose track of the level of most relevance when
buildup starts to form. Of course, when the current price action starts
to line up more neatly with a level of a false perforation, we should see
no problem in adjusting our barriers accordingly.
When the high of bar 4 hit upon the low of bar 3 , a ceiling test was
当第4根柱的高点触及第3根柱的低点时，形成了一个顶部测试，现在轮到空头
a fact and it was now up to the bears to take advantage of it. It took a
利用这一点了。在整数关口经历了一小段争斗，以及在第5根柱的一个小假高点后
little
skirmish in the round number, and a mini false high at 5 , but then
，牛市被迫撤退，不久后价格再次向下逼近底部障碍（6）。
the bulls were forced to retreat, and not much later prices were pushing
down against the bottom barrier once more (6) .
At this stage, we can imagine the bears to have felt pretty content
在这个阶段，我们可以想象空头对事情的发展感到相当满意。他们不仅成
with
the way things were going. Not only had they successfully fended
功抵挡了欧盟开盘时的第一次牛市攻击（T-5），整体压力仍然向南，价格再
off the first bull attack in the EU Open (T -5) , the overall pressure still
次处于市场低位。可他们并不知道，他们即将面临一个严峻的觉醒。
pointed pleasantly south and prices were now favorably positioned in
the low of the market again. Little did they know they were in for a rude
awakening.
Ironically, even though the powerful 6- F bull surge had crushed all
具有讽刺意味的是，尽管强劲的6-F牛市冲击摧毁了所有空头对进一步下跌
bearish
hopes for further decline, it ended with a classic bull trap of its
的希望，但它以一个经典的牛市陷阱结束（F）。同时注意到，F-8的反应几乎
own
(F) . Notice also that the F-8 response was a virtual mirror image of
是T-4反应的镜像。
the T -4 response at the other end of the range.
When confronted with a failed breakout, the attacking parties basi­
当面临失败的突破时，攻击方基本上面临两个选择：要么完全撤退，要么再
cally
face two options: they could either retreat in full or give it another
试一次。除了市场压力外，影响这一问题的一个重要因素是初始突破是有积累
shot. Apart from market pressure, an element that tends to have large
还是没有积累。如果是没有积累的失败，如T和F所示，攻击者很可能会想再试
say in this matter is whether the initial break was set with or without
一次。
buildup. In case of a non-buildup failure, as shown at T and F, chances
are good that the attackers will want to give it another try.
61
Understanding Price Action
Always a strategic base for prices to recoup from a false break rep­
rimand is a level of support or resistance back inside the range. In this
regard, bulls had no reason to complain with what was offered. When
the low of bar 8 came to test the 4-7 cluster (technical support) , this
favorably coincided with a touch on the round number and the 25ema;
on top of that, the correction had hit upon the 50/ 60 percent retrace­
ment level of the 6-F swing. If we further take into account that the UK
Open volume poured in at that very same instant (8), this harbored all
the ingredients for a swift bull attack on the top of the range, perhaps
followed by a break soon after.
Granted, all this may have been in defiance of the earlier Asian bear
pressure, but that is seldom a deal-breaker in the powerful UK Open.
To further examine the market's change of heart, have a look also at
the elongated W-progression-and the triple-bottom element within­
stretching itself throughout the second half of the box ( I -F); this was
already a major hint regarding the shift in consensus from bearish to
bullish. And how about progression 3-F, a W-pattern within a bigger
W-pattern. And lastly, hanging from the right leg of this pattern was a
two-bar squeeze progression, building up pressure between the 25ema
underfoot and the barrier overhead (8-9).
Since the latter element contained only two bars, and not very tight
in span, we cannot blame a conservative bull for deeming the break
above bar 9 a little too aggressive; it would have been nice indeed to
have seen the squeeze fatten up a bit with maybe one or two extra bars,
preferably getting a smaller in span. The UK Open is known to speed
things up a little, though.
62
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Always a strategic base for prices to recoup from a false break rep­
对于价格从虚假突破中恢复的战略基础来说，范围内的支撑或阻力水平始终
rimand is a level of support or resistance back inside the range. In this
是一个关键。在这方面，牛市没有理由对所提供的感到不满。当第8根柱的低点
regard, bulls had no reason to complain with what was offered. When
测试4-7集群（技术支撑）时，这恰好与一个整数位和25ema的触碰相吻合；此外
the low of bar 8 came to test the 4-7 cluster (technical support) , this
，修正也达到了6-F波段的50/60百分比回撤水平。如果我们进一步考虑到英国开
favorably coincided with a touch on the round number and the 25ema;
盘时的交易量恰好在同一时刻（8），这为迅速的牛市攻击范围顶部提供了所有
on
top of that, the correction had hit upon the 50/ 60 percent retrace­
必要的条件，或许随后会很快突破。
ment level of the 6-F swing. If we further take into account that the UK
Open volume poured in at that very same instant (8), this harbored all
the ingredients for a swift bull attack on the top of the range, perhaps
followed by a break soon after.
Granted, all this may have been in defiance of the earlier Asian bear
诚然，所有这些可能都是在早期亚洲市场压力的反抗下进行的，但这在强
pressure,
but that is seldom a deal-breaker in the powerful UK Open.
大的英国开盘中很少成为交易的障碍。要进一步审视市场心态的变化，还可以
To
further examine the market's change of heart, have a look also at
看看延长的W形进程以及其中的三重底部元素——它在箱体的后半部分延伸（1the elongated W-progression-and the triple-bottom element within­
F）；这已经是一个关于共识从看跌转向看涨的重大暗示。那么，进程3-F呢，这
stretching itself throughout the second half of the box ( I -F); this was
是一个在更大W形模式中的W形模式。最后，悬挂在这个模式的右腿上的是一个
already a major hint regarding the shift in consensus from bearish to
两条柱的挤压进程，在25ema的支撑下和上方的障碍之间积聚压力（8-9）。
bullish. And how about progression 3-F, a W-pattern within a bigger
W-pattern. And lastly, hanging from the right leg of this pattern was a
two-bar squeeze progression, building up pressure between the 25ema
underfoot and the barrier overhead (8-9).
Since the latter element contained only two bars, and not very tight
由于后者元素仅包含两根柱，并且跨度不太紧凑，我们不能责怪保守的多头
in span, we cannot blame a conservative bull for deeming the break
认为突破第9根柱有些过于激进；如果能看到挤压稍微加大一点，可能再多一两
above bar 9 a little too aggressive; it would have been nice indeed to
根柱，最好是跨度更小，那就太好了。不过，英国开盘通常会加快节奏。
have seen the squeeze fatten up a bit with maybe one or two extra bars,
preferably getting a smaller in span. The UK Open is known to speed
things up a little, though.
62
Chapter 3
IFig 3.91
W!'oW.ProRealTime.com
Price Action Principles-Practice
eur/usd 5-minute
06:00
1 17
07:00
08:00
oaoo
Figure 3.9 Let's take up one last example of price action principles at
work before digging into the finer mechanics of our trading method.
Initially, the top barrier of this range may have been plotted across
the highs of 1 and 2. That would have turned the high of bar 3 in a false
high, or a tease break if you wish. But when not much later the high
of 3 was hit again, and prices retraced from it, a new double top was a
fact (3-4), which allowed us to experiment with the barrier as depicted.
With all the bars closing above the 25ema, bulls had kept the best of
the action since the start of the EU Open at 08:00, but prior to the UK
Open at 09 :00 their dominance was far from outspoken. Their task was
evident, though: to get prices trading away from that round number.
Let's examine how it was done.
Following the double top of 3-4, bar 5 had dipped briefly below the
25ema but managed to close above it; a little sign of bullish resilience.
It was also a higher low in the box.
From the tiny base of bar 6, bulls had forced their way through the
top barrier in powerbar fashion (T). These tease breakouts can be a
bit tricky at times. On the one hand they lack solid buildup, but they
may not be completely devoid of appeal; this could leave many breakout
traders confused on whether to hop along or decline. From where we
stand, tease break perforations are best considered premature, but we
should never lose track of the follow-up action.
Earlier on we addressed the authority of the powerbar and its pow­
erful implications when broken; equally interesting is this bar's little
cousin, the so-called inside bar. By definition, this is any bar that nei-
63
Chapter 3
第三章
IFig
3.91
图 3.9
W!'oW.ProRealTime.com
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
eur/usd 5-minute
欧元/美元
5 分钟
06:00
1 17
07:00
08:00
oaoo
Figure
3.9 Let's take up one last example of price action principles at
图
3.9 让我们在深入研究交易方法的细微机制之前，再举一个价格行为原则的例
work before digging into the finer mechanics of our trading method.
子。
Initially, the top barrier of this range may have been plotted across
最初，这个区间的上限可能是通过1和2的高点绘制的。这将使得第3根柱的
the highs of 1 and 2. That would have turned the high of bar 3 in a false
高点成为一个虚假的高点，或者说是一个诱人的突破。但不久之后，第3根柱的
high, or a tease break if you wish. But when not much later the high
高点再次被触及，价格从中回撤，形成了一个新的双顶（3-4），这使我们能够
of 3 was hit again, and prices retraced from it, a new double top was a
尝试如图所示的障碍。自从欧盟开盘以来，所有柱子都在25ema之上收盘，牛市
fact (3-4), which allowed us to experiment with the barrier as depicted.
自08:00开始以来一直保持着最佳的走势，但在09:00的英国开盘之前，他们的主
With all the bars closing above the 25ema, bulls had kept the best of
导地位并不明显。然而，他们的任务是显而易见的：让价格远离那个整数关
the action since the start of the EU Open at 08:00, but prior to the UK
口。让我们来看看这是如何做到的。
Open at 09 :00 their dominance was far from outspoken. Their task was
evident, though: to get prices trading away from that round number.
Let's examine how it was done.
Following the double top of 3-4, bar 5 had dipped briefly below the
在3-4的双顶之后，第5根柱子短暂跌破了25ema，但最终收盘时又回到了其
25ema but managed to close above it; a little sign of bullish resilience.
上方；这是一个小小的看涨韧性的迹象。这也是箱体中的一个更高的低点。
It was also a higher low in the box.
From
the tiny base of bar 6, bulls had forced their way through the
从第6条小基座开始，牛市以强势的方式突破了上方的障碍（T）。这些诱
top barrier in powerbar fashion (T). These tease breakouts can be a
导性突破有时可能会有些棘手。一方面，它们缺乏坚实的积累，但也可能并
bit
tricky at times. On the one hand they lack solid buildup, but they
非完全没有吸引力；这可能会让许多突破交易者感到困惑，不知道是该跟随
may not be completely devoid of appeal; this could leave many breakout
还是拒绝。从我们所处的位置来看，诱导性突破最好被视为过早，但我们绝
traders confused on whether to hop along or decline. From where we
不能忽视后续的行动。
stand, tease break perforations are best considered premature, but we
should never lose track of the follow-up action.
Earlier on we addressed the authority of the powerbar and its pow­
早些时候我们讨论了强势条的权威及其被突破时的强大含义；同样有趣的是
erful
implications when broken; equally interesting is this bar's little
这个条的小表亲，所谓的内部条。根据定义，这是一条任何条...
cousin, the so-called inside bar. By definition, this is any bar that nei-
63
Understanding Price Action
ther takes out the high nor low of its predecessor. When showing up
next to a tall neighbor, even an inside bar can have a sizable span, but
on the whole they are quite small and thus easily recognizable within
the chart.
Like the powerbar break, the break of an inside bar, too, can have a
serious impact on the price action. Particularly when the bar is situated
at a crucial spot, its break is known to trigger quite a few traders in and
out of position. With this tendency in mind, another way to look at the
inside bar is to regard it as a one-bar buildup progression.
Although the majority of bars in this chart were all of modest span,
there were some interesting inside bars to be detected. How about bar
6, as a prelude to the powerbar breakout at T; and bar 7, from which
downward break the market responded with a pullback to support. And
how about bar 9 , which set up a pullback reversal in the top of the bro­
ken range.
Bar 9 was indeed an interesting bar. It presented itself bullishly next
to bar 8, which had just performed a very telling feat of its own: the low
of bar 8 had put in what we can refer to as a triple. This is a simultane­
ous touch of a pullback on the 25ema, a round number and a technical
test of sorts. Since the low of bar 8 hit upon the high of bar 6, the tech­
nical test here was a ceiling test.
In a bullish chart, a triple represents threefold support, and plenty of
bulls love to buy straight in it. In a bearish chart, a triple is likely to get
shorted. However, it is the element of the technical test more than that
of the 25ema and the round number that earns the triple's true bounce
reputation (principle of support and resistance). This is why we very
often see prices fail to bounce "properly" in a weak double (25ema and
round number) , where the technical test is missing. A double of, say,
a 25ema and a ceiling test may already hold up much better because
of the technical test within (strong double) . But triples are definitely the
most potent of bounce generators. For a recent example of an excellent
triple, check the previous chart, Figure 3.8: the triple is found where the
low of bar 8 hits upon the 25ema, the round number and a technical
test with the highs of the 4-7 cluster.
When there is no round number involved, but instead the pullback
64
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
ther
takes out the high nor low of its predecessor. When showing up
当高低点不超过其前身时，内线条的表现就会显得微不足道。当它出现在高大的邻
next
to a tall neighbor, even an inside bar can have a sizable span, but
居旁边时，即使是内线条也可能有相当大的跨度，但总体而言，它们相当小，因此
on the whole they are quite small and thus easily recognizable within
在图表中很容易识别。
the chart.
Like the powerbar break, the break of an inside bar, too, can have a
与强势条突破类似，内线条的突破也会对价格走势产生严重影响。特别是
serious impact on the price action. Particularly when the bar is situated
当该条位于关键位置时，其突破往往会引发许多交易者进出仓位。考虑到这一
at a crucial spot, its break is known to trigger quite a few traders in and
趋势，另一种看待内线条的方法是将其视为一种单条的积累进程。
out of position. With this tendency in mind, another way to look at the
inside bar is to regard it as a one-bar buildup progression.
Although the majority of bars in this chart were all of modest span,
尽管该图表中的大多数条形都具有适度的跨度，但仍然可以发现一些有趣
there
were some interesting inside bars to be detected. How about bar
的内线条。比如第6条，作为T点强势条突破的前奏；还有第7条，从中向下突
6, as a prelude to the powerbar breakout at T; and bar 7, from which
破后，市场反应回调至支撑位。再比如第9条，它在突破顶部时设置了一个回
downward break the market responded with a pullback to support. And
调反转。
how about bar 9 , which set up a pullback reversal in the top of the bro­
肯范围。
ken range.
Bar
9 was indeed an interesting bar. It presented itself bullishly next
酒吧9确实是一个有趣的酒吧。它在酒吧8旁边以看涨的姿态出现，而酒吧8
to
bar
8,
which had just performed a very telling feat of its own: the low
刚刚完成了一项非常显著的壮举：酒吧8的低点形成了我们可以称之为三重支
of
bar 8 had put in what we can refer to as a triple. This is a simultane­
撑的情况。这是对25ema的回调、一个整数和某种技术测试的同时触及。由于
ous touch of a pullback on the 25ema, a round number and a technical
酒吧8的低点正好触及酒吧6的高点，这里的技术测试是一个阻力测试。
test of sorts. Since the low of bar 8 hit upon the high of bar 6, the tech­
nical test here was a ceiling test.
In a bullish chart, a triple represents threefold support, and plenty of
在看涨的图表中，三重支撑代表三重支持，许多多头喜欢直接在此买入。在
bulls love to buy straight in it. In a bearish chart, a triple is likely to get
看跌的图表中，三重支撑可能会被做空。然而，技术测试的元素比25ema和整数
shorted. However, it is the element of the technical test more than that
的元素更能赋予三重支撑真正的反弹声誉（支撑与阻力的原则）。这就是为什
of
the 25ema and the round number that earns the triple's true bounce
么我们经常看到价格在缺乏技术测试的弱双重支撑（25ema和整数）中未能“正
reputation (principle of support and resistance). This is why we very
确”反弹的原因。比如，25ema和阻力测试的双重支撑可能已经会更好地支撑，
often
see prices fail to bounce "properly" in a weak double (25ema and
因为其中包含了技术测试（强双重支撑）。但三重支撑绝对是反弹生成器中最
round number) , where the technical test is missing. A double of, say,
强大的。有关一个优秀三重支撑的近期例子，请查看前面的图表，图3。8：三
a
25ema and a ceiling test may already hold up much better because
重支撑出现在酒吧8的低点触及25ema、整数和4-7集群的高点的地方。
of the technical test within (strong double) . But triples are definitely the
most potent of bounce generators. For a recent example of an excellent
triple, check the previous chart, Figure 3.8: the triple is found where the
low of bar 8 hits upon the 25ema, the round number and a technical
test with the highs of the 4-7 cluster.
64
When there is no round number involved, but instead the pullback
当没有涉及整数的回调时，而是回调
Chapter 3
Price Action Principles-Practice
hits upon a 50/60 percent correction of the foregoing swing, that repre­
sents a triple, too (provided it coincides with a touch on the 25ema and
a technical test) . We will see countless more examples in the pages and
chapters to come.
For more inside bars, have a look also at the two little dojis at 1 0 .
Although the second doji was basically an inside bar to the first, they
were both inside bars to the big powerbar on the left (actually, they
stuck out a bit, but that hardly mitigates the implications). Naturally,
if one of them already builds up tension, then two will do so even more.
The break below the second doji represents a popular contrarian entry
to scalp some pip on the way down to support ( 1 0- 1 1 ) .
Although this chart was far from trending, it is still relatively easy
to identify the party in charge. From 07:00 on, the session had printed
nothing but higher lows and higher highs, a clear indication that bulls
were prepared to risk their capital at gradually higher prices. This is
not to suggest that we should simply play along for the ride, but it does
mean that we should be extra cautious when aiming to trade in the op­
posite direction (or best shun it altogether) .
Note how bulls twice used a correction to the top barrier of the box,
in conjunction with the rising 25ema, to buy themselves in.
This concludes our introductory discussions on the core principles
of price action. Throughout all coming chapters, all of the above will
find our attention again, since no chart ever gets printed without these
essential building blocks in place. Our task now is to examine how we
can put our understanding of these principles into a practical trading
method.
65
Chapter 3
第三章
Price
Action Principles-Practice
价格行为原则-实践
hits upon a 50/60 percent correction of the foregoing swing, that repre­
达到前一个波动的50/60%的修正时，这也代表了一个三重（前提是它与25ema的
sents
a triple, too (provided it coincides with a touch on the 25ema and
触碰和技术测试相吻合）。在接下来的页面和章节中，我们将看到无数更多的
a technical test) . We will see countless more examples in the pages and
例子。
chapters to come.
For more inside bars, have a look also at the two little dojis at 1 0 .
关于更多的内部柱，您也可以看看10号的两个小十字星。虽然第二个十字星
Although the second doji was basically an inside bar to the first, they
基本上是第一个的内部柱，但它们都是左侧大力量柱的内部柱（实际上，它们
were both inside bars to the big powerbar on the left (actually, they
稍微突出了一点，但这几乎没有减轻其含义）。自然，如果其中一个已经积累
stuck out a bit, but that hardly mitigates the implications). Naturally,
了张力，那么两个将会积累得更多。突破第二个十字星以下的价格代表了一个
if one of them already builds up tension, then two will do so even more.
流行的逆势入场，以便在下跌到支撑位（10-11）时获取一些点数。
The break below the second doji represents a popular contrarian entry
to scalp some pip on the way down to support ( 1 0- 1 1 ) .
Although this chart was far from trending, it is still relatively easy
尽管这张图表远未成为热门，但仍然相对容易识别出掌权的政党。从07:00
to identify the party in charge. From 07:00 on, the session had printed
开始，整个交易时段只出现了更高的低点和更高的高点，清楚地表明多头准备
nothing
but higher lows and higher highs, a clear indication that bulls
在逐渐上涨的价格上冒险投入资本。这并不是说我们应该简单地随波逐流，但
were
prepared to risk their capital at gradually higher prices. This is
这确实意味着在试图反向交易时我们应该格外谨慎（或者最好完全避免）。
not to suggest that we should simply play along for the ride, but it does
mean that we should be extra cautious when aiming to trade in the op­
posite direction (or best shun it altogether) .
Note how bulls twice used a correction to the top barrier of the box,
注意多头如何两次利用对箱体顶部障碍的修正，结合上升的25ema，来进行买
in
conjunction with the rising 25ema, to buy themselves in.
入。
This
concludes our introductory discussions on the core principles
这结束了我们对价格行为核心原则的介绍性讨论。在接下来的所有章节中，以
of price action. Throughout all coming chapters, all of the above will
上所有内容将再次引起我们的关注，因为没有任何图表是在没有这些基本构建块
find our attention again, since no chart ever gets printed without these
的情况下打印出来的。我们现在的任务是研究如何将我们对这些原则的理解转化
essential
building blocks in place. Our task now is to examine how we
为一种实用的交易方法。
can put our understanding of these principles into a practical trading
method.
65
Chapter 4
Orders, Target and Stop
If you search the internet for information on position sizing and trade
management, chances are you will soon find yourself flooded by an
endless stream of possible techniques, one more exotic than the other.
Some traders prefer to scale in, others jump in fully packed; some scale
out on flexible targets, others strongly advocate preset objectives; many
traders trail their stops for protection, while more others just use a
bracket and be done. In short, there are myriad ways to go about enter­
ing and exiting and most likely there is something to be said in defense
of each and every technique.
This guide will offer some ideas on the matter as well, but do take
note that none of it is ever carved in stone. I firmly believe, though, that
the more a trader adheres to a strict set of entry and exit rules, the less
likely he is to fall prey to challenges of the emotional kind. The first
suggestion, therefore, is a popular management technique specifically
designed to keep things very simple. At a later stage, we will dig a bit
deeper into the finer subtleties of trade management.
Most trading platforms will offer a wide array of order types, but for
our purposes, two standard settings will do: to enter the position, a
market order will be fired by hand. Once in the market, a bracket order
will automatically spring to life to close out the position at preset levels
for either a profit or loss.
The market order is a logical choice. When the chart calls for action,
agility is a must. By firing "at the market" no opportunities willever be
67
Chapter 4
第四章
Orders, Target and Stop
订单、目标和止损
If
you search the internet for information on position sizing and trade
如果你在互联网上搜索有关头寸规模和交易管理的信息，你很可能会很快被无
management,
chances are you will soon find yourself flooded by an
尽的各种可能技术所淹没，每一种都比另一种更为奇特。一些交易者喜欢逐步
endless
stream of possible techniques, one more exotic than the other.
建仓，另一些则全力以赴；有些在灵活的目标上逐步减仓，另一些则强烈主张
Some traders prefer to scale in, others jump in fully packed; some scale
预设目标；许多交易者为了保护自己而跟踪止损，而更多的则只是使用一个区
out
on flexible targets, others strongly advocate preset objectives; many
间就了事。简而言之，关于进出场的方式有无数种，几乎每一种技术都有其辩
traders
trail their stops for protection, while more others just use a
护的理由。
bracket and be done. In short, there are myriad ways to go about enter­
ing and exiting and most likely there is something to be said in defense
of each and every technique.
This guide will offer some ideas on the matter as well, but do take
本指南也将提供一些相关的想法，但请注意，这些内容并非一成不变。我
note
that none of it is ever carved in stone. I firmly believe, though, that
坚信，交易者越是遵循严格的进出场规则，就越不容易受到情感方面挑战的
the more a trader adheres to a strict set of entry and exit rules, the less
影响。因此，第一个建议是一个流行的管理技术，专门设计用来保持事情的
likely
he is to fall prey to challenges of the emotional kind. The first
简单。在后面的阶段，我们将深入探讨交易管理的更细微的细节。
suggestion, therefore, is a popular management technique specifically
designed to keep things very simple. At a later stage, we will dig a bit
deeper into the finer subtleties of trade management.
Most
trading platforms will offer a wide array of order types, but for
大多数交易平台将提供多种订单类型，但就我们的目的而言，两种标准设置
our purposes, two standard settings will do: to enter the position, a
就足够了：为了进入头寸，市场订单将手动触发。一旦进入市场，括号订单将
market order will be fired by hand. Once in the market, a bracket order
自动生效，以在预设水平上关闭头寸，无论是盈利还是亏损。
will automatically spring to life to close out the position at preset levels
for either a profit or loss.
The
market order is a logical choice. When the chart calls for action,
市场订单是一个合乎逻辑的选择。当图表需要行动时，灵活性是必须的。
agility
is a must. By firing "at the market" no opportunities willever be
通过“按市场”下单，绝不会错过任何机会，
67
Understanding Price Action
missed due to a limit order not being filled (the limit order has a specific
price attached). The moment we spot our break, one click on the buy or
sell ticket will ensure position in the market.
For exiting purposes, the market order is an option, too, but this would
require a constant tracking of the open position and there is always the
possibility of a connection failure to consider. More user-friendly and
safer also is to use the bracket order option. As the name suggests, the
bracket encloses an open position by having both a target and a stop
automatically attached to the level of entry. Both sides of the bracket can
be set to any desirable distance and each will close out the position when
hit. A nice feature of this order type is that when one side gets hit, the
pending order at the other end instantaneously gets cancelled. Hence
the bracket also being referred to as an OCO (one-cancels-other) .
Following are the suggested settings for a standard bracket on the
eurjusd 5-minute in accordance with the trading method to be dis­
cussed in the next chapter. The target side is set at a distance of 20 pip
from entry, the stop at a distance of 1 0 .
These settings are not merely chosen for their ease of application. In
a normally active eurjusd session, a 20 pip target complies fairly well
with an average double-pressure pop from a buildup situation that is
likely to have our interest. As to the 1 0 pip stop, to some readers this
may seem awfully tight, but it is thoughtfully chosen as well: it allows
a trade some room to breathe, but not to the point of hope-and-pray.
Observation has it that if we position ourselves on a break in line with
dominance, carefully selected and stemming from a buildup situation,
there is usually little to be gained by setting protection at a level further
out. Hundreds of trade examples in the chapters ahead will aim to vali­
date this bold premise.
To ensure a protective exit at all times, the stop-side of the bracket
is a market order too; when hit, this order will close out the position no
matter what. Inherent to the use of a market order is the occasional is­
sue of slippage. This happens when an order gets filled at a price worse
than intended due to the fact that the market moved disadvantageously
in the split second it took the platform to work the order request. This
is best accepted as a little cost of business. In relatively normal condi-
68
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
missed
due to a limit order not being filled (the limit order has a specific
因为限价单没有被成交（限价单附有特定价格）。当我们发现突破时，只需点
price
attached). The moment we spot our break, one click on the buy or
击买入或卖出按钮，就能确保在市场中建立头寸。
sell ticket will ensure position in the market.
For exiting purposes, the market order is an option, too, but this would
为了退出，市场订单也是一个选项，但这需要不断跟踪开放头寸，并且始
require
a constant tracking of the open position and there is always the
终要考虑连接故障的可能性。更用户友好和安全的选择是使用括号订单选项。
possibility of a connection failure to consider. More user-friendly and
顾名思义，括号通过在入场水平上自动附加目标和止损来包围开放头寸。括号
safer also is to use the bracket order option. As the name suggests, the
的两侧可以设置为任何理想的距离，每一侧在触发时都会平仓。这个订单类型
bracket
encloses an open position by having both a target and a stop
的一个好处是，当一侧被触发时，另一侧的待处理订单会立即被取消。因此，
automatically
attached to the level of entry. Both sides of the bracket can
括号也被称为OCO（一个取消另一个）。
be set to any desirable distance and each will close out the position when
hit. A nice feature of this order type is that when one side gets hit, the
pending order at the other end instantaneously gets cancelled. Hence
the bracket also being referred to as an OCO (one-cancels-other) .
Following are the suggested settings for a standard bracket on the
以下是根据下一章将要讨论的交易方法，为欧元/美元5分钟标准括号建议的
eurjusd
5-minute in accordance with the trading method to be dis­
设置。目标侧设置在入场点20个点的距离，止损设置在10个点的距离。
cussed in the next chapter. The target side is set at a distance of 20 pip
from entry, the stop at a distance of 1 0 .
These settings are not merely chosen for their ease of application. In
这些设置并不是仅仅因为它们易于应用而被选择。在一个正常活跃的欧元
a normally active eurjusd session, a 20 pip target complies fairly well
/美元交易时段，20点的目标与从积累情况中产生的平均双重压力波动相符，
with
an average double-pressure pop from a buildup situation that is
这通常会引起我们的兴趣。至于10点的止损，对某些读者来说，这可能显得
likely to have our interest. As to the 1 0 pip stop, to some readers this
过于紧凑，但这也是经过深思熟虑的选择：它给交易留出了一些呼吸的空间
may
seem awfully tight, but it is thoughtfully chosen as well: it allows
，但并不至于让人抱有希望和祈祷的心态。观察表明，如果我们在与主导趋
a
trade some room to breathe, but not to the point of hope-and-pray.
势一致的突破上进行定位，并且是经过精心选择并源于积累情况的，那么将
Observation has it that if we position ourselves on a break in line with
保护设置在更远的水平上通常没有太大收益。接下来的章节中将有数百个交
dominance,
carefully selected and stemming from a buildup situation,
易示例来验证这一大胆的前提。
there is usually little to be gained by setting protection at a level further
out. Hundreds of trade examples in the chapters ahead will aim to vali­
date this bold premise.
To ensure a protective exit at all times, the stop-side of the bracket
为了确保在任何时候都有保护性退出，止损一侧的订单也是市场订单；一旦触
is
a market order too; when hit, this order will close out the position no
发，该订单将无论如何平仓。使用市场订单固有的一个问题是滑点。这发生在订
matter
what. Inherent to the use of a market order is the occasional is­
单以比预期更差的价格成交，因为市场在处理订单请求的那一瞬间发生了不利的
sue
of
slippage.
This happens when an order gets filled at a price worse
变动。这最好被视为一种小成本的业务。在相对正常的情况下than intended due to the fact that the market moved disadvantageously
in the split second it took the platform to work the order request. This
is best accepted as a little cost of business. In relatively normal condi-
68
Chapter 4
Orders, Target and Stop
tions, slippage will be minimal, maybe one or two pipettes (tenths of a
pip); in faster conditions, it may cost some more to get in or out of a
trade. On occasion, slippage may even work to one's advantage.
In any case, never consider swopping the market order for a limit
order to cheapskate on protection. This could turn out to be a costly
mistake if no counterparty is found to fill your trade at the desired exit
level: prices could march straight through your stop without ever tak­
ing you out. For this reason, most platforms do not even provide a limit
order option at the stop side of the bracket. At the target side, a limit
order will do.
With a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip target in place, spread and/ or com­
missions included, these settings are said to show a ratio between risk
and reward of 1 :2 . In other words, if we get stopped out twice for each
time our target is hit, this will yield a break-even result over time. More
encouragingly, if one winner is pocketed for every one loser incurred,
things are progressing in very promising fashion.
Note: Certain bracket order settings can hold up for ages, but it is
wise to evaluate at regular intervals whether the current market condi­
tions still justify the settings of the past. For example, should intraday
activity significantly pick up, or even go haywire like in the height of the
euro crisis back in 2008/ 2009 , it may very well be that the standard l O
pip stop would no longer suffice. A simple solution could be to set the
distance for protection at a wider level (while taking off some volume to
compensate) . Should we adjust the target level more or less proportion­
ally, we can even maintain a similar risk/ reward ratio as before. (For
instance by setting the stop at 13 pip from entry and the target at 26,
and so on.)
Variations on the bracket order theme are easy to implement. It is
certainly not a requirement to have the target level at all times double
the level of the stop. Should a 20 pip target be deemed acceptable but
a 1 0 pip stop too tight, setting the latter a little wider is always an op­
tion, even on a discretionary basis. Of course, this will affect the risk/
reward ratio.
As an alternative to a preset target, a trader could decide to let the
price action determine when it's time to cash in a profitable trade. Theo-
69
Chapter 4
第四章
Orders, Target and Stop
订单、目标和止损
tions, slippage will be minimal, maybe one or two pipettes (tenths of a
在这种情况下，滑点将是最小的，也许只有一到两个点（十分之一的点）；在
pip); in faster conditions, it may cost some more to get in or out of a
更快的条件下，进出交易可能会花费更多。有时，滑点甚至可能对某人有利。
trade. On occasion, slippage may even work to one's advantage.
In any case, never consider swopping the market order for a limit
无论如何，绝不要考虑用限价单来替代市价单以节省保护费用。如果没有对
order to cheapskate on protection. This could turn out to be a costly
手方在所需的退出水平填补您的交易，这可能会变成一个代价高昂的错误：价格
mistake if no counterparty is found to fill your trade at the desired exit
可能会直接穿过您的止损而不将您退出。因此，大多数平台甚至不提供限价单在
止损侧的选项。在目标侧，限价单是可以的。
level: prices could march straight through your stop without ever tak­
ing you out. For this reason, most platforms do not even provide a limit
order option at the stop side of the bracket. At the target side, a limit
order will do.
With a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip target in place, spread and/ or com­
在设置了10点止损和20点目标的情况下，包括点差和/或佣金，这些设置被
missions included, these settings are said to show a ratio between risk
认为显示出风险与回报的比例为1:2。换句话说，如果我们每次目标被击中时被
and reward of 1 :2 . In other words, if we get stopped out twice for each
止损两次，这将导致长期的收支平衡。更令人鼓舞的是，如果每一个赢家都能
time our target is hit, this will yield a break-even result over time. More
抵消一个输家，事情的发展将非常有希望。
encouragingly, if one winner is pocketed for every one loser incurred,
things are progressing in very promising fashion.
Note: Certain bracket order settings can hold up for ages, but it is
注意：某些挂单设置可能会持续很长时间，但定期评估当前市场条件是否仍
wise to evaluate at regular intervals whether the current market condi­
然合理是明智的。例如，如果日内活动显著增加，甚至像2008/2009年欧元危机
tions
still justify the settings of the past. For example, should intraday
期间那样失控，标准的10点止损可能就不再足够。一个简单的解决方案是将保
activity significantly pick up, or even go haywire like in the height of the
护距离设置得更宽（同时减少一些交易量以进行补偿）。如果我们按比例调整
euro
crisis back in 2008/ 2009 , it may very well be that the standard l O
目标水平，我们甚至可以保持与之前相似的风险/收益比。（例如，将止损设置
pip stop would no longer suffice. A simple solution could be to set the
在入场点13点，目标设置在26点，等等。）
distance for protection at a wider level (while taking off some volume to
compensate) . Should we adjust the target level more or less proportion­
ally, we can even maintain a similar risk/ reward ratio as before. (For
instance by setting the stop at 13 pip from entry and the target at 26,
and so on.)
Variations on the bracket order theme are easy to implement. It is
在挂单主题上进行变体是很容易实现的。并不一定要求目标水平始终是止损水
certainly
not a requirement to have the target level at all times double
平的两倍。如果认为20点的目标是可以接受的，但10点的止损太紧，稍微将后者
the level of the stop. Should a 20 pip target be deemed acceptable but
设置得宽一些始终是一个选项，即使是根据个人判断。当然，这会影响风险/收益
a 1 0 pip stop too tight, setting the latter a little wider is always an op­
比。
tion, even on a discretionary basis. Of course, this will affect the risk/
reward ratio.
As an alternative to a preset target, a trader could decide to let the
作为预设目标的替代方案，交易者可以决定让价格行为来决定何时兑现盈利交易。理论上，这种灵活性非常有意义，但它可能无法同样地服务于所有交易者。任何即使是
price
action determine when it's time to cash in a profitable trade. Theo略微容易受到一时冲动妄想症或贪婪影响的人，最好相信他的止盈止损范围，而不是相信他自己的感觉。这种管理方式在各个级别的交易者中如此受欢迎并非毫无道理。
69
Understanding Price Action
retically, such flexibility makes perfect sense, but it may not serve all
traders equally well. Anyone even vaguely susceptible to spur-of-the­
moment paranoia, or greed for that matter, is probably better off putting
faith in his bracket rather than in his own perceptions. It is not for
nothing that this type of management is so popular among traders of
all levels.
Since we have yet to discuss our entry techniques in the coming
chapter on Trade Setups, let us not busy ourselves too much at this
point with the finer subtleties of exiting. This is not to imply that the
discretionary method does not deserve exploration-quite the contrary.
We will have a closer look at some of these techniques in Chapter 6 on
Manual Exits.
If we embrace the standard bracket order model, we will put on a
full position on entry and take off all units on exit. The actual unit size
(trade volume) with which to enter the market is of course a personal
choice and very much dependent on the current level of competence as
well as the amount of capital in the account. At this stage we need not
bother with it, but the virtues of what is commonly referred to as com­
pounding do deserve the utmost attention from anyone who is serious
about his trading business. In Chapter 10 we will address this matter
of unit sizing in detail.
When it comes to spreads and commissions, in Forex there are two
kinds of broker models to choose from: the first, generally referred to as
the retail model, charges no commissions but adds to the spread; the
other usually offers a lower spread but adds a commission on top. On
the eur/ usd, both models should work out more or less to the same cost
of business per trade (round-turn) . The retail broker will probably offer
a 1 pip spread during the active phases of the session; the commission
broker may offer a 0.5 pip spread, or even less, but on top will charge a
commission of about 0.5 pip round-turn.
When still in the learning stages, it is highly recommended to keep
the volume very low and thus not worry too much about where to find
the tightest spreads. Rather than trying to save a couple of pipettes
on entry, way more effective, in these early stages, is to work on your
price action knowledge and trading techniques. With no less than a 100
70
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
retically,
such flexibility makes perfect sense, but it may not serve all
既然我们尚未在即将到来的关于交易设置的章节中讨论我们的入场技巧，那么我
traders
equally
well. Anyone even vaguely susceptible to spur-of-the­
们现在就不要过多地忙于研究退出的细微之处。这并不是暗示自由裁量方法不值
moment
paranoia, or greed for that matter, is6 probably
better off putting
得探索——恰恰相反。我们将在关于手动退出的第
章中更仔细地研究其中的一
faith in his bracket rather than in his own perceptions. It is not for
些技术。
nothing that this type of management is so popular among traders of
all levels.
Since we have yet to discuss our entry techniques in the coming
由于我们尚未在即将到来的关于交易设置的章节中讨论我们的入场技巧，那么
chapter
on Trade Setups, let us not busy ourselves too much at this
我们现在就不要过多地忙于研究退出的细微之处。这并不是暗示自由裁量方法不
point with the finer subtleties of exiting. This6 章中更仔细地研究其中的一
is not to imply that the
值得探索——恰恰相反。我们将在关于手动退出的第
discretionary method does not deserve exploration-quite the contrary.
些技术。
We will have a closer look at some of these techniques in Chapter 6 on
Manual Exits.
If we embrace the standard bracket order model, we will put on a
如果我们采用标准的交易顺序模型，我们将在入场时全仓进场，并在出场时
full
position on entry and take off all units on exit. The actual unit size
全部平仓。实际的单位大小（交易量）当然是个人选择，且很大程度上取决于当
(trade volume) with which to enter the market is of course a personal
前的能力水平以及账户中的资本量。在这个阶段，我们不必过多关注这一点，但
choice
and very much dependent on the current level of competence as
通常被称为复利的优点确实值得任何认真对待自己交易业务的人给予极大的关注
well as the amount of capital in the account. At this stage we need not
。在第十章中，我们将详细讨论单位大小的问题。
bother with it, but the virtues of what is commonly referred to as com­
pounding do deserve the utmost attention from anyone who is serious
about his trading business. In Chapter 10 we will address this matter
of unit sizing in detail.
When it comes to spreads and commissions, in Forex there are two
在外汇交易中，关于点差和佣金，有两种经纪商模型可供选择：第一种通常
kinds of broker models to choose from: the first, generally referred to as
被称为零售模型，不收取佣金，但会增加点差；另一种通常提供较低的点差，
the retail model, charges no commissions but adds to the spread; the
但会额外收取佣金。在欧元/美元交易中，这两种模型的交易成本（回合交易）
other
usually offers a lower spread but adds a commission on top. On
大致相同。零售经纪商在活跃交易时段可能会提供1个点的点差；而佣金经纪商
the eur/ usd, both models should work out more or less to the same cost
可能会提供0.5个点的点差，甚至更低，但会额外收取大约0.5个点的回合佣金。
of business per trade (round-turn) . The retail broker will probably offer
a 1 pip spread during the active phases of the session; the commission
broker may offer a 0.5 pip spread, or even less, but on top will charge a
commission of about 0.5 pip round-turn.
When still in the learning stages, it is highly recommended to keep
在学习阶段，强烈建议将交易量保持在非常低的水平，因此不必过于担心如
the volume very low and thus not worry too much about where to find
何找到最紧的点差。与其试图在入场时节省几根点数，在这些早期阶段，更有
the tightest spreads. Rather than trying to save a couple of pipettes
效的是专注于你的价格行为知识和交易技巧。只要避免每周一次不必要的损失
on entry, way more effective, in these early stages, is to work on your
，
price action knowledge and trading techniques. With no less than a 100
70
Chapter 4
Orders, Target and Stop
pipettes in a single 1 0 pip stop, avoiding just one unnecessary loss per
week will more than offset a few extra pipettes paid in the spread.
That being said, as you progress over time and your volume goes
up, and you would like to trade multiple markets as well, a commis­
sion type broker is probably the best way to go; most popular pairs will
be offered at a reasonable spread and commission. Retail brokers may
charge a slightly bigger spread on some of the other pairs; but over the
years, the costs of business have gone down considerably with all par­
ties, and may go down further still. In any case, always do your due
diligence when it comes to choosing brokers and never take for granted
what they offer on their sites. Best to apply for a free trial first, just to
see how their spreads hold up in real-time, particularly in the hours of
your time zone.
71
Chapter 4
第四章
Orders, Target and Stop
订单、目标和止损
pipettes in a single 1 0 pip stop, avoiding just one unnecessary loss per
在一个10点的止损中，节省的几根点数将远远超过你在点差中支付的额外费用
week will more than offset a few extra pipettes paid in the spread.
。
That being said, as you progress over time and your volume goes
话虽如此，随着时间的推移和交易量的增加，如果你想交易多个市场，佣金
up,
and you would like to trade multiple markets as well, a commis­
型经纪商可能是最好的选择；大多数热门货币对将以合理的点差和佣金提供。
sion type broker is probably the best way to go; most popular pairs will
零售经纪商可能会对其他一些货币对收取稍大的点差；但多年来，所有参与方
be offered at a reasonable spread and commission. Retail brokers may
的经营成本已经大幅下降，未来可能还会进一步下降。无论如何，在选择经纪
charge a slightly bigger spread on some of the other pairs; but over the
商时始终要做好尽职调查，绝不要理所当然地相信他们在网站上提供的内容。
years,
the costs of business have gone down considerably with all par­
最好先申请一个免费试用，以查看他们的点差在实时中的表现，特别是在你所
ties,
and may go down further still. In any case, always do your due
在时区的交易时段。
diligence when it comes to choosing brokers and never take for granted
what they offer on their sites. Best to apply for a free trial first, just to
see how their spreads hold up in real-time, particularly in the hours of
your time zone.
71
Chapter 5
Trade Setups
With the bulk of price action essentials now under our belt, it is time to
sharpen the eye for combat. Recognizing the market's lust for repetition
is one thing, it is quite another to take advantage of it. Without some
specific rules of engagement, even the price action specialist is merely
at the mercy of his own perceptions. Especially when coming in with a
tight stop, there can be no such thing as trading on a hunch or shoot­
ing from the hip just because a situation has merit. Every single entry
in the market should always be justifiable from a technical perspective
and defensible in terms of protection as well.
From where we stand, there are three core requirements to meet
on any one trading idea, two of which we have already addressed quite
extensively: to trade in line with dominance and to take position on a
break away from a buildup situation. The third requirement is a func­
tion of the buildup progression itself: within it, we need to look for a
development that sets up the trade.
The interesting thing about trading breakouts is that despite the
endless ways in which price action can manifest itself, there aren't that
many ways for buildup to break. In this chapter we will cover four spe­
cific trade setups, three of which designed to take on a pattern breakout
of sorts, the last to tackle the pullback reversal (which is often a pattern
break variant as well).
The fact that a pattern can "break" implies the presence of a bound­
ary of sorts. On this point, we already took up the benefits of curbing
73
Chapter 5
第五章
交易设置
Trade Setups
With
the bulk of price action essentials now under our belt, it is time to
在掌握了价格行为的基本要素后，是时候提高战斗的敏锐度了。识别市场对重
sharpen the eye for combat. Recognizing the market's lust for repetition
复的渴望是一回事，利用它又是另一回事。如果没有一些具体的交易规则，即
is
one thing, it is quite another to take advantage of it. Without some
使是价格行为专家也只是任凭自己的感知摆布。尤其是在设置了紧密止损的情
specific rules of engagement, even the price action specialist is merely
况下，不能仅仅因为某种情况有其合理性就凭直觉进行交易或随意出手。每一
at the mercy of his own perceptions. Especially when coming in with a
次市场的入场都应该从技术角度上是可以辩护的，并且在保护方面也是合理的
tight
stop, there can be no such thing as trading on a hunch or shoot­
。
ing from the hip just because a situation has merit. Every single entry
in the market should always be justifiable from a technical perspective
and defensible in terms of protection as well.
From where we stand, there are three core requirements to meet
从我们目前的立场来看，任何一个交易想法都需要满足三个核心要求，其
on
any one trading idea, two of which we have already addressed quite
中两个我们已经详细讨论过：与主导趋势一致交易，以及在突破积累情况时入
extensively: to trade in line with dominance and to take position on a
场。第三个要求是积累进程本身的一个功能：在其中，我们需要寻找一个能够
break
away from a buildup situation. The third requirement is a func­
设置交易的发展的机会。
tion of the buildup progression itself: within it, we need to look for a
development that sets up the trade.
The interesting thing about trading breakouts is that despite the
关于交易突破的有趣之处在于，尽管价格行为可以以无尽的方式表现出来
endless
ways in which price action can manifest itself, there aren't that
，但突破的方式却并不多。在本章中，我们将讨论四种特定的交易设置，其
many
ways for buildup to break. In this chapter we will cover four spe­
中三种旨在应对某种模式的突破，最后一种则是处理回调反转（这通常也是一
cific
trade
setups, three of which designed to take on a pattern breakout
种模式突破变体）。
of sorts, the last to tackle the pullback reversal (which is often a pattern
break variant as well).
The fact that a pattern can "break" implies the presence of a bound­
模式可以“突破”的事实暗示了某种边界的存在。在这一点上，我们已经讨论
ary of sorts. On this point, we already took up the benefits of curbing
了限制兴趣进展的好处，
73
Understanding Price Aaion
a progression of interest with a line or a box; these tools can indeed
provide excellent assistance in detecting the pivotal levels in the chart
from where prices might break or bounce. But let us be mindful not to
clutter our charts, and our view, with all sorts of graphics that bear little
relevance in terms of future purpose. In most instances, a single line or
a box is all it takes to stay focused on the development at hand.
Once we have established a visual on a boundary of interest, our
next task is to monitor how well this barrier holds up when raided. As
we know, a mere perforation may not call for action yet (think tease and
false break traps), but things always get interesting when attackers and
defenders start to battle it in a tight group of alternating bars push­
ing up or down against the barrier. Within this buildup we then need
to identify a crucial bar-the bar from which break to take position. In
a textbook example of a bull-side breakout, this will be a bullish bar
positioned at the end of the current cluster, with a close against the pat­
tern barrier. When a subsequent bar takes out this bar at the top, the
pattern defense is now considered broken and we can enter long at the
market. On a bear-side trade, the situation is simply reversed (shorting
the break of a bearish bar). We can refer to the bar that sets up the trade
as our signal bar, and to the breakout bar in which position is taken as
our entry bar.
Note: Although not an absolute requirement, Forex traders are rec­
ommended to use a chart that prints prices in increments of a full pip.
This way, the highs and lows of neighboring bars, or those within a box
pattern, can line up more neatly, which can only improve clarity on the
barrier in question. Unfortunately, quite a few trading platforms print
prices they way they quote them, in pipettes. In this setting it takes a
mere pipette for a crucial bar to be broken by another, but this break
may not yet surface on the more widely consulted "one-pip" charts,
potentially leading to premature entries. Trading from a pipette chart
is not undoable, but the advantages of the one-pip setting are hard to
dismiss. If this is not available on the charts that come integrated with
your broker platform, renting a standalone charting package for a small
monthly fee solves the issue (highly recommended anyway, if only for
studying purposes). By the way, the one-pip setting should regard the
74
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
a progression of interest with a line or a box; these tools can indeed
用一条线或一个框；这些工具确实可以在检测图表中价格可能突破或反弹的关
provide
excellent assistance in detecting the pivotal levels in the chart
键水平方面提供极好的帮助。但我们要注意，不要用各种与未来目的几乎无关
from where prices might break or bounce. But let us be mindful not to
的图形来使我们的图表和视野变得杂乱。在大多数情况下，一条线或一个框就
clutter our charts, and our view, with all sorts of graphics that bear little
足以让我们专注于当前的发展。
relevance in terms of future purpose. In most instances, a single line or
a box is all it takes to stay focused on the development at hand.
Once we have established a visual on a boundary of interest, our
一旦我们在感兴趣的边界上建立了视觉，我们的下一个任务就是监测这个屏
next task is to monitor how well this barrier holds up when raided. As
障在被攻击时的表现。正如我们所知，单纯的穿透可能并不需要采取行动（想
we know, a mere perforation may not call for action yet (think tease and
想诱饵和假突破陷阱），但当攻击者和防守者开始在一组紧密交替的柱子中相
false break traps), but things always get interesting when attackers and
互对抗时，事情总是变得有趣。在这种积累中，我们需要识别一个关键的柱子
defenders
start to battle it in a tight group of alternating bars push­
——从这个柱子开始突破以建立头寸。在一个典型的牛市突破示例中，这将是
ing up or down against the barrier. Within this buildup we then need
一个位于当前集群末尾的看涨柱子，收盘价接近模式边界。当随后的柱子突破
to
identify a crucial bar-the bar from which break to take position. In
这个顶部的柱子时，模式防线被认为已经被打破，我们可以在市场上建立多头
a textbook example of a bull-side breakout, this will be a bullish bar
头寸。在空头交易中，情况正好相反（做空突破一个看跌柱子）。我们可以将
positioned at the end of the current cluster, with a close against the pat­
设置交易的柱子称为信号柱，而在此柱子中建立头寸的突破柱子称为入场柱。
tern barrier. When a subsequent bar takes out this bar at the top, the
pattern defense is now considered broken and we can enter long at the
market. On a bear-side trade, the situation is simply reversed (shorting
the break of a bearish bar). We can refer to the bar that sets up the trade
as our signal bar, and to the breakout bar in which position is taken as
our entry bar.
Note: Although not an absolute requirement, Forex traders are rec­
注意：虽然这不是绝对的要求，但建议外汇交易者使用以完整点数增量打印
ommended to use a chart that prints prices in increments of a full pip.
价格的图表。这样，相邻柱的高低，或者在箱形模式中的高低，可以更整齐地
This
way, the highs and lows of neighboring bars, or those within a box
对齐，这只能提高所讨论的障碍的清晰度。不幸的是，许多交易平台以报价的
pattern, can line up more neatly, which can only improve clarity on the
方式打印价格，即以小数点后五位。在这种情况下，仅需一个小数点就可以被
barrier
in question. Unfortunately, quite a few trading platforms print
另一个关键柱打破，但这种突破可能尚未在更广泛咨询的“一个点”图表上显现
prices they way they quote them, in pipettes. In this setting it takes a
，可能导致过早的入场。从小数点图表进行交易并不是不可行的，但一个点设
mere
pipette for a crucial bar to be broken by another, but this break
置的优势是难以忽视的。如果在您经纪商平台集成的图表上无法使用此功能，
may
not yet surface on the more widely consulted "one-pip" charts,
租用一个独立的图表包以小额月费解决这个问题（如果仅仅是为了学习目的，
potentially leading to premature entries. Trading from a pipette chart
强烈推荐）。顺便提一下，一个点设置应该考虑到
is not undoable, but the advantages of the one-pip setting are hard to
dismiss. If this is not available on the charts that come integrated with
your broker platform, renting a standalone charting package for a small
monthly fee solves the issue (highly recommended anyway, if only for
studying purposes). By the way, the one-pip setting should regard the
74
Chapter 5
Trade Setups
chart only, not the way prices are quoted on the order tickets.
In a perfect world, a pattern gets broken in a four-step fashion: ( 1 )
aggressors attack the boundary line, (2) defenders fend off the initial
charge, (3) a little cluster of alternating bars builds up tension in the
boundary region, and (4) prices break out and follow through.
In numerous instances, however, it will take a lot more pulling and
pushing and tricking and trapping to see a pattern boundary give in (if
at all). On the good side, there is no need for the market to behave "per­
fectly" in order to set up a tradable wager.
For example, when forced to retreat from a tease breakout on the
bull side, prices may hit upon a level of support back inside the pattern
from where a new attack on the boundary may be launched (think ceil­
ing test and the re-break follow-up). At other times, a pattern is broken
somewhat sloppy, with the next few bars freezing up outside the barrier;
even though this may not look very promising from a follow-through
perspective, the fact that contrarians can only stem the breakout but
not undo it may ultimately work in favor of continuation. In other cas­
es, we may see a pattern get broken quite substantially without much
buildup, but then prices pull back to put in a technical test with the
broken boundary line. These examples are clearly not representative
of the "ideal" break, which may prompt us to decline the initial event.
But the follow-up action could still set up a playable wager one way or
another.
Pattern breakouts can be very choppy also, with little clue as to the
ultimate resolution. In such cases, we may have to adjust the position
of the pattern barrier, or perhaps erase it completely and take it from
there.
All in all, trading pattern breakouts is a pretty straightforward prac­
tice, but things can get tricky if unaware of the finer mechanics. As far
as our entry techniques are concerned, we will make a threefold distinc­
tion between all variations by either naming the setups a pattern break,
a pattern break pullback or a pattern break combi. Each version will be
introduced below, with detailed explanation on its typical appearance,
accompanied by a number of chart examples to get the idea. Mter we
have addressed one last setup, the pullback reversal, we have all the
75
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
交易设置
chart only, not the way prices are quoted on the order tickets.
仅图表，不是订单票据上报价的方式。
In a perfect world, a pattern gets broken in a four-step进攻者攻击
fashion: ( 1 )
在一个完美的世界里，模式的破裂是以四个步骤进行的：(1)
aggressors 防守者抵挡住初始攻击，(3)
attack the boundary line,在边界区域形成一小簇交替的柱子，
(2) defenders fend off the initial
边界线，(2)
charge, (3) a little价格突破并持续跟进。
cluster of alternating bars builds up tension in the
积聚紧张气氛，(4)
boundary region, and (4) prices break out and follow through.
In numerous instances, however, it will take a lot more pulling and
然而，在许多情况下，看到一个模式边界屈服需要更多的拉扯、推搡、欺
pushing and tricking and trapping to see a pattern boundary give in (if
骗和诱捕（如果有的话）。好的一面是，市场不需要“完美”地表现才能建立一
at all). On the good side, there is no need for the market to behave "per­
个可交易的赌注。
fectly" in order to set up a tradable wager.
For example, when forced to retreat from a tease breakout on the
例如，当被迫从牛市的突破回撤时，价格可能会触及模式内部的支撑位，从
bull
side, prices may hit upon a level of support back inside the pattern
那里可以发起对边界的新攻击（想想天花板测试和重新突破的后续）。在其他
from
where a new attack on the boundary may be launched (think ceil­
情况下，模式的突破可能有些松散，接下来的几根K线在边界外冻结；尽管从
ing
test and the re-break follow-up). At other times, a pattern is broken
跟进的角度来看，这可能看起来不太乐观，但事实上，逆势者只能遏制突破而
somewhat sloppy, with the next few bars freezing up outside the barrier;
无法撤销它，这最终可能有利于继续上涨。在其他情况下，我们可能会看到一
even
though this may not look very promising from a follow-through
个模式被相当大幅度地突破，而没有太多的积累，但随后价格回撤以进行技术
perspective,
the fact that contrarians can only stem the breakout but
测试，测试被突破的边界线。这些例子显然不代表“理想”的突破，这可能促使
not undo it may ultimately work in favor of continuation. In other cas­
我们拒绝初始事件。但后续的行动仍然可能为某种方式的可操作投注提供机会
es,
。 we may see a pattern get broken quite substantially without much
buildup, but then prices pull back to put in a technical test with the
broken boundary line. These examples are clearly not representative
of the "ideal" break, which may prompt us to decline the initial event.
But the follow-up action could still set up a playable wager one way or
another.
Pattern breakouts can be very choppy also, with little clue as to the
模式突破也可能非常不稳定，几乎没有最终结果的线索。在这种情况下，我们可
ultimate
resolution. In such cases, we may have to adjust the position
能需要调整模式屏障的位置，或者完全删除它，然后从那里开始。
of the pattern barrier, or perhaps erase it completely and take it from
there.
All in all, trading pattern breakouts is a pretty straightforward prac­
总而言之，交易模式突破是一种非常直接的做法，但如果不了解更精细的
tice,
but things can get tricky if unaware of the finer mechanics. As far
机制，事情可能会变得棘手。就我们的入场技术而言，我们将通过将设置命名
as our entry techniques are concerned, we will make a threefold distinc­
为模式突破、模式突破回调或模式突破组合，来区分所有变体。每个版本将在
tion between all variations by either naming the setups a pattern break,
下面介绍，并详细解释其典型外观，并附有许多图表示例以了解其思路。在我
a pattern break pullback or a pattern break combi. Each version will be
们解决了最后一个设置，即回调反转之后，我们拥有了从保守但高效的突破角
introduced
below, with detailed explanation on its typical appearance,
度来看待任何图表所需的所有武器。
accompanied by a number of chart examples to get the idea. Mter we
have addressed one last setup, the pullback reversal, we have all the
75
Understanding Price Action
weapons needed to take on basically any chart from a conservative yet
highly effective breakout perspective. In Chapter 7 we will expand our
range of breakout techniques somewhat further with the powerful but
slightly more advanced trade-for-failure setup.
Pattern Break
Despite the many variations, not to mention the tricks and traps, a very
straightforward pattern break is still a regular occurrence. During the
process of pattern formation, things may start out a bit fuzzy, but usu­
ally not much tweaking is needed to define the "pattern of the moment"
with a respectable line, or box, on a 5-minute chart. Generally speak­
ing, the more touches involved to form a pattern boundary of relevance,
the "harder" this barrier, and the more buildup needed to push the
defenders out of the way.
In a tradable scenario, this buildup materializes as a small cluster
of alternating bars, known also as pre-breakout tension and in some
cases referred to as a squeeze. Within it, there are strong psychological
forces at work. If it is a level of support that is currently attacked, bulls
in position can only hope that their sideline companions will come to
the rescue on this level of last resort. But bears in position face chal­
lenges of their own. To see the bullish defense cracked, they, too, are
in need of assistance, which may not be so easy to come by in a level
of support. Surely many sideline bears would want to short below sup­
port, but who then is to do the dirty work of cracking it first.
Granted, these hopes and fears may be present at any random level
in the chart, but whenever prices build up in an area of support or
resistance, at least we have a clear visual on a particular level under
stress-and plenty of parties, both in and out of the market, are likely
to have their eyes cocked on the very same boundary as well.
Do understand that the way the break is set is only one part of the
total of elements to be consulted prior to taking position. Always de­
manding attention is the chart's overall pressure; equally essential is
to scan for potential obstruction on the way to target, as well as for ad-
76
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
weapons
needed to take on basically any chart from a conservative yet
在第 7 章中，我们将通过强大但稍微更高级的交易失败设置，进一步扩展我们
highly effective breakout perspective. In Chapter 7 we will expand our
的突破技术范围。
range of breakout techniques somewhat further with the powerful but
slightly more advanced trade-for-failure setup.
模式突破 Break
Pattern
Despite the many variations, not to mention the tricks and traps, a very
尽管有许多变体，更不用说各种技巧和陷阱，但一个非常直接的模式突破仍然
straightforward pattern break is still a regular occurrence. During the
是常见的现象。在模式形成的过程中，事情可能开始得有些模糊，但通常不需
process of pattern formation, things may start out a bit fuzzy, but usu­
要太多调整就能在5分钟图表上定义出一个“当前模式”的合理线条或框架。一般
ally
not much tweaking is needed to define the "pattern of the moment"
来说，形成相关模式边界所涉及的触碰次数越多，这个“障碍”就越“坚固”，而
with a respectable line, or box, on a 5-minute chart. Generally speak­
推翻防守者所需的积累也就越多。
ing, the more touches involved to form a pattern boundary of relevance,
the "harder" this barrier, and the more buildup needed to push the
defenders out of the way.
In
a tradable scenario, this buildup materializes as a small cluster
在可交易的场景中，这种积累表现为一小簇交替的柱状图，也称为突破前
of alternating bars, known also as pre-breakout tension and in some
的紧张状态，在某些情况下被称为挤压。在其中，有强大的心理力量在起作用
cases
referred to as a squeeze. Within it, there are strong psychological
。如果这是一个当前受到攻击的支撑位，多头只能希望他们的场外伙伴能在这
forces at work. If it is a level of support that is currently attacked, bulls
个最后的防线中前来救援。但空头面临着自己的挑战。为了看到多头防线被突
in
position can only hope that their sideline companions will come to
破，他们也需要帮助，而在支撑位上，这可能并不容易获得。毫无疑问，许多
the rescue on this level of last resort. But bears in position face chal­
场外空头希望在支撑位下方做空，但谁又能首先做这肮脏的工作呢？
lenges of their own. To see the bullish defense cracked, they, too, are
in need of assistance, which may not be so easy to come by in a level
of support. Surely many sideline bears would want to short below sup­
port, but who then is to do the dirty work of cracking it first.
Granted, these hopes and fears may be present at any random level
诚然，这些希望和恐惧可能在图表的任何随机水平上存在，但每当价格在
in
the chart, but whenever prices build up in an area of support or
支撑或阻力区域积累时，至少我们可以清楚地看到一个特定水平的压力，并且
resistance, at least we have a clear visual on a particular level under
市场内外的许多参与者可能都会关注同一边界。
stress-and plenty of parties, both in and out of the market, are likely
to have their eyes cocked on the very same boundary as well.
Do understand that the way the break is set is only one part of the
请理解，突破的设置方式只是采取位置之前需要咨询的所有元素中的一部
total
of elements to be consulted prior to taking position. Always de­
分。图表的整体压力始终需要关注；同样重要的是要扫描通往目标的潜在障碍
manding attention is the chart's overall pressure; equally essential is
，以及其他相关因素。
to scan for potential obstruction on the way to target, as well as for ad-
76
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
verse magnets that may work to the detriment of the intended stop. All
this will be addressed shortly.
But even when the situation sets up relatively well in terms of gen­
eral conditions, patience is still key. To justify our tight stop, of utmost
importance is to allow the price action the time to set up our trades
properly; we either step in on a break that fully complies with our entry
requirements, or we do nothing at all. It is never our task to meddle with
the forming of the buildup itself, nor to participate in breakouts that
can be deemed premature or otherwise suspect.
Our first discussions on entry technique regard the standard pattern
break setup. A small series of charts will serve to explain the tactics in­
volved, but do realize that in the endless variety of price action patterns,
this can only offer a snapshot of practical implementation. Throughout
all coming chapters, though, we will see countless more examples of
each breakout technique; so whatever is not fully palpable on first in­
troduction will surely fall into place at some later point.
Before exploring the accompanying text, again take a brief moment
to assess the global nature of each chart first. See if you can already
detect the hints and clues of most relevance-like the line of least resis­
tance, round number fights, obstructive elements, cluster progressions,
crucial highs and lows, and so on. This practice will not only playfully
activate your price action senses, it is likely to ease the absorption of the
technical discussions below the charts as well.
77
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
verse
magnets that may work to the detriment of the intended stop. All
可能会对预期的止损产生不利影响的诗句磁铁。所有这些将在稍后进行说明。
this will be addressed shortly.
But even when the situation sets up relatively well in terms of gen­
但即使在一般条件相对良好的情况下，耐心仍然是关键。为了证明我们的
eral
conditions, patience is still key. To justify our tight stop, of utmost
紧止损，最重要的是让价格走势有时间正确地设置我们的交易，我们要么在完
importance is to allow the price action the time to set up our trades
全符合我们入场要求的突破时介入，要么什么都不做。我们绝不能干预形成的
properly;
we either step in on a break that fully complies with our entry
积累本身，也不能参与那些可以被视为过早或其他可疑的突破。
requirements, or we do nothing at all. It is never our task to meddle with
the forming of the buildup itself, nor to participate in breakouts that
can be deemed premature or otherwise suspect.
Our first discussions on entry technique regard the standard pattern
我们对入场技巧的第一次讨论涉及标准的模式突破设置。一小系列图表将
break setup. A small series of charts will serve to explain the tactics in­
用于解释所涉及的战术，但请意识到，在无尽的价格走势模式中，这只能提供
volved,
but do realize that in the endless variety of price action patterns,
实际实施的快照。尽管在接下来的章节中，我们将看到无数更多的每种突破技
this can only offer a snapshot of practical implementation. Throughout
术的例子；因此，任何在首次介绍时未能完全理解的内容，肯定会在稍后的某
all coming chapters, though, we will see countless more examples of
个时刻变得清晰。
each breakout technique; so whatever is not fully palpable on first in­
troduction will surely fall into place at some later point.
Before
exploring the accompanying text, again take a brief moment
在探索附带文本之前，再花一点时间评估每个图表的整体性质。看看你是否已
to assess the global nature of each chart first. See if you can already
经能够发现最相关的提示和线索——比如最小阻力线、整数关口的争夺、阻碍因素
detect the hints and clues of most relevance-like the line of least resis­
、聚集进展、关键高点和低点等等。这种练习不仅会调动你的价格行为感知，可能
tance, round number fights, obstructive elements, cluster progressions,
还会使你更容易吸收下面图表的技术讨论。
crucial highs and lows, and so on. This practice will not only playfully
activate your price action senses, it is likely to ease the absorption of the
technical discussions below the charts as well.
77
Understanding Price Action
· IFig 5.11
www.ProReaITime.com
o ProRetliTirne.com
01:00
eur/usd s..min� E
02:00
03JXl
04:00
05:00
0000
07:00
Figure 5.1 A typical characteristic of a sideways market is the way prices
tend to alternate above and below a rather flat 2 5ema. In the early
stages of it, in the absence of a dominant party, there may not be much
telling who will come out on top. But by patiently monitoring the way
the price action revolves around the average and by carefully tracking
the highs and lows along the way, we can usually obtain a pretty good
idea on the side of the market that is slowly getting the upper hand.
The first notable event in the session above was the sideways "cor­
rection" 2-3, hanging from the pole 1 -2 . Horizontal pullbacks are the
market's way to absorb the implications of a foregoing move. Inevitably,
at some point, prices can only do one of two things: they either break
away in the dominant direction (think flag) , or they break away at the
other end, possibly setting up a reversal of sorts (think M and W-pat­
tern middle-parts) .
Bears will not have been amused to see the latter outcome come
about (4) . Just moments before they had been well on their way to the
50-level below, only to suddenly see their opponents aim for the round
number above. (Note the completion of the W-pattern in the 3-4 swing.)
Following this countercharge was a lengthy skirmish over the pos­
session of the 25ema, which ultimately resolved in favor of the bears. A
development that may have played a decisive role in this victory was the
fact that bulls, despite repeated attempts, had proved unable to reach,
let alone retake, the round number of 1 .36. At some point these misad­
ventures were bound to affect their morale.
78
But let us zoom in on the initial bull attack first (4) . When the ave-
Understanding
理解价格行为Price Action
· IFig
5.11www.ProRealTime.com
www.ProReaITime.com
图 5.1
eurfusdeur/usd
5分钟s..min� E
o ProRetliTirne.com
01:00
02:00
03JXl
04:00
05:00
0000
07:00
Figure
5.1 A typical characteristic of a sideways market is the way prices
图5.1
横盘市场的一个典型特征是价格往往在相对平坦的25日指数移动平均线之
tend
to
alternate above and below a rather flat 2 5ema. In the early
上和之下交替波动。在早期阶段，由于缺乏主导方，谁将占上风可能并不明显
stages
of it, in the absence of a dominant party, there may not be much
。但通过耐心监测价格行为围绕平均线的运动，并仔细跟踪过程中出现的高点
telling
who will come out on top. But by patiently monitoring the way
和低点，我们通常可以对市场的哪一方正在逐渐占据上风有一个相当不错的判
the
断。price action revolves around the average and by carefully tracking
the highs and lows along the way, we can usually obtain a pretty good
idea on the side of the market that is slowly getting the upper hand.
The first notable event in the session above was the sideways "cor­
上述交易时段中的第一个显著事件是横盘“修正”2-3，悬挂在杆1-2上。水平
rection"
2-3, hanging from the pole 1 -2 . Horizontal pullbacks are the
回调是市场吸收前期走势影响的方式。不可避免地，在某个时刻，价格只能做
market's way to absorb the implications of a foregoing move. Inevitably,
两件事：要么在主导方向上突破（想象一下旗形），要么在另一端突破，可能
at some point, prices can only do one of two things: they either break
会设置某种反转（想象一下M和W形态的中间部分）。
away in the dominant direction (think flag) , or they break away at the
other end, possibly setting up a reversal of sorts (think M and W-pat­
tern middle-parts) .
Bears will not have been amused to see the latter outcome come
熊市投资者看到后来的结果感到不满（4）。就在几分钟前，他们本来正朝着50
about
(4) . Just moments before they had been well on their way to the
级别以下的方向前进，却突然看到对手瞄准了上方的整数关口。（注意3-4波段中W
50-level below, only to suddenly see their opponents aim for the round
形态的完成。）在这次反击之后，围绕25日均线的漫长争夺战最终以熊市的胜利告
number above. (Note the completion of the W-pattern in the 3-4 swing.)
终。导致这一胜利的一个决定性因素是，尽管多头多次尝试，但始终未能达到，更
Following this countercharge was a lengthy skirmish over the pos­
不用说重新夺回1.36的整数关口了。这些失误在某种程度上注定会影响他们的士
session of the 25ema, which ultimately resolved in favor of the bears. A
气。
development that may have played a decisive role in this victory was the
fact that bulls, despite repeated attempts, had proved unable to reach,
let alone retake, the round number of 1 .36. At some point these misad­
ventures were bound to affect their morale.
78
But let us zoom in on the initial bull attack first (4) . When the ave但让我们先聚焦于最初的多头攻击（4）。当平均-
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
rage is perforated from below, and the next so many bars manage to
close above it, we can refer to this as bulls retaking possession ofthe av­
erage. From here on, prices may still have a hard time reaching higher,
but they do stand a pretty good chance of getting picked up whenever
they hit back on the average, particularly on first touch; and even more
so when this coincides with an element of technical support.
In a rather slow and compressed session, support or resistance is
never far away. For example, when the low of bar 7 hit upon the high of
bar 5, this was a spot-on ceiling test that coincided with a touch on the
25ema and a 50/ 60 percent correction of the 5-6 maneuver. In an ear­
lier discussion, we referred to this threefold collision as a triple: a strong
turning point candidate. Scalpers in particular love to take advantage
of these little pullbacks to support, if only to rake in a handful of pip in
the initial bounce. But for prices to head out more authoritatively, or
lastingly, decent sideline assistance is usually required. In the session
above, this never convincingly materialized for the bulls. Not long after
taking possession of the average, they were twice forced to retreat below
it (8-9 and lO- l l )-and then failed to recoup third time around.
Note: As previously noted, there is no point in overanalyzing every
little skirmish in the chart; most of the time there are no trades near
and it will do to sit back with just an overview perspective on the open
session. Yet always interesting to monitor in any chart are the attempts
of either side to reach the next round number in line. Both parties have
their own level to gun for, and these pursuits, in the end, will either fail
or succeed. Of course, these levels do not have to be reached on any
first try. But whenever we see one side repeatedly fail to make it to their
magnet and then lose the initiative, a power shift is likely at hand. Put
differently, the failure of one side to reach their round number very often
sets the stage for a successful attack on the number at the other end.
This is essentially what happened in the chart above. Moreover, the
failed attempts to reach the OO-level-at 1 , 4, 6, 8, 10, and finally at
12-will not only have had an impact on the bullish morale, they will
have boosted the confidence of the bears with equal prowess.
Initially, the pattern line may have been plotted slightly more as­
cended to connect the 2-3 element with the low of bar 9. But when
79
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
rage
is perforated from below, and the next so many bars manage to
愤怒从下方被穿透，接下来的几根柱子成功地在其上方收盘，我们可以称之为
close
above it, we can refer to this as bulls retaking possession ofthe av­
多头重新夺回了均线的控制。从这里开始，价格可能仍然很难达到更高的水平
erage. From here on, prices may still have a hard time reaching higher,
，但当它们再次触及均线时，特别是在第一次触碰时，获得支撑的机会相当不
but they do stand a pretty good chance of getting picked up whenever
错；而当这与某种技术支撑元素相吻合时，机会更大。
they hit back on the average, particularly on first touch; and even more
so when this coincides with an element of technical support.
In a rather slow and compressed session, support or resistance is
在一个相对缓慢和压缩的交易时段，支撑或阻力从未远离。例如，当第7
never
far away. For example, when the low of bar 7 hit upon the high of
根柱子的低点触及第5根柱子的高点时，这正是一个完美的天花板测试，恰好
bar 5, this was a spot-on ceiling test that coincided with a touch on the
与25ema和5-6操作的50/60%回调相吻合。在早期的讨论中，我们将这种三重碰
25ema and a 50/ 60 percent correction of the 5-6 maneuver. In an ear­
撞称为三重：一个强有力的转折点候选。尤其是剥头皮交易者喜欢利用这些
lier
discussion, we referred to this threefold collision as a triple: a strong
小幅回调来获取支撑，哪怕只是为了在初次反弹中赚取一小部分点数。但为
turning point candidate. Scalpers in particular love to take advantage
了让价格更有力地或持久地向外发展，通常需要相当不错的边际支撑。在上
of these little pullbacks to support, if only to rake in a handful of pip in
面的交易时段中，这对多头来说并没有令人信服地出现。在重新夺回均线控
the initial bounce. But for prices to head out more authoritatively, or
制后不久，他们两次被迫退回到均线以下（8-9和10-11）——然后在第三次尝
lastingly, decent sideline assistance is usually required. In the session
试中未能恢复。
above, this never convincingly materialized for the bulls. Not long after
taking possession of the average, they were twice forced to retreat below
it (8-9 and lO- l l )-and then failed to recoup third time around.
Note:
As previously noted, there is no point in overanalyzing every
注意：如前所述，过度分析图表中的每一个小冲突是没有意义的；大多数时
little skirmish in the chart; most of the time there are no trades near
候，附近没有交易，坐下来从整体上看开盘会更好。然而，在任何图表中，监
and it will do to sit back with just an overview perspective on the open
测双方试图达到下一个整数关口总是很有趣。双方都有自己的目标，而这些追
session. Yet always interesting to monitor in any chart are the attempts
求最终要么失败，要么成功。当然，这些水平不必在第一次尝试时就达到。但
of either side to reach the next round number in line. Both parties have
是，每当我们看到一方反复未能达到他们的目标，然后失去主动权时，权力的
their own level to gun for, and these pursuits, in the end, will either fail
转移往往就在眼前。换句话说，一方未能达到他们的整数关口，往往为另一方
or succeed. Of course, these levels do not have to be reached on any
成功攻击对面的目标奠定了基础。
first try. But whenever we see one side repeatedly fail to make it to their
magnet and then lose the initiative, a power shift is likely at hand. Put
differently, the failure of one side to reach their round number very often
sets the stage for a successful attack on the number at the other end.
This
is essentially what happened in the chart above. Moreover, the
这正是上面图表中发生的情况。此外，未能达到00关口的尝试——在1、4、6
failed attempts to reach the OO-level-at 1 , 4, 6, 8, 10, and finally at
、8、10，最后在12的失败，不仅会对多头的士气产生影响，也会同样增强空头
12-will not only have had an impact on the bullish morale, they will
的信心。
have boosted the confidence of the bears with equal prowess.
Initially, the pattern line may have been plotted slightly more as­
最初，模式线可能稍微上升，以连接第2-3个元素与第9根柱子的低点。但是当
cended to connect the 2-3 element with the low of bar 9. But when
79
Understanding Price Action
the 1 1 - 1 3 progression took shape later on in the session, the situation
called for a little adjustment. When drawn as depicted, the seven bars
caught between the pattern line and the average represent a textbook
squeeze. Whenever prices break away from such a "trapped" progres­
sion, the double-pressure response can be very powerful.
Textbook in it also was a failed attempt of the bulls to break away
from the bearish grip ( 1 2). You may not think much of such a tiny
false high, but it can be a great harbinger of bullish capitulation further
down the line. Just try to imagine the predicament of the bulls: so far all
their upside attacks had failed and now they were being reprimanded
yet again, and in support of a pattern line to boot. If not even an upside
break in support could tempt a sideline bull to come to the rescue, then
what is a bull in position to think.
With a bear break now seriously on the boil, this leaves us to discuss
our pattern break entry technique. Despite its excellent tip-off, bar 1 2
itself did not qualify a s a signal bar. Should we have shorted below it,
our entry would have been straight into the support of the pattern line.
On certain occasions, a trader could decide to apply a little more ag­
gression (we'll take it up later on), but this is seldom a smart idea in a
relatively slow chart. Best to give the market a fair chance to set up the
trade properly.
There were at least five reasons why bar 1 3 fit the description of
a valid signal bar: ( 1 ) it was part of a solid squeeze; (2) it nicely filled
the space between the 2 5ema and the pattern line, leaving virtually
no room for another bar to get printed in the squeeze; (3) it confirmed
the false high at 1 2 ; (4) it closed bearishly, in line with the anticipated
break and right up against the pattern line; and (5) there was a highly
favorable 50-level magnet waiting about 25 pip below. What more does
a bear want to see to get ready for action.
In the vast majority of entries, position is taken the very moment
the entry bar surpasses the high or low of the signal bar by a pip (fire
short below bar 13). When this moment draws near, get ready with your
cursor on the buy or sell ticket, but never front-run the event; fire only
when the signal bar is truly taken out.
The very moment position is taken in the market, a preset bracket
80
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
the 1 1 - 1 3 progression took shape later on in the session, the situation
11-13的进程在会话中后期形成时，情况需要稍作调整。当如图所示绘制时，模
called
for a little adjustment. When drawn as depicted, the seven bars
式线与平均线之间的七根柱子代表了教科书式的挤压。每当价格突破这种“被困
caught between the pattern line and the average represent a textbook
”的进程时，双重压力反应可能非常强烈。
squeeze. Whenever prices break away from such a "trapped" progres­
sion, the double-pressure response can be very powerful.
Textbook in it also was a failed attempt of the bulls to break away
教科书式的还有牛市未能突破熊市控制（12）的失败尝试。你可能不会对这
from the bearish grip ( 1 2). You may not think much of such a tiny
样一个微小的假高点多加关注，但它可能是未来牛市投降的一个重要预兆。试
false high, but it can be a great harbinger of bullish capitulation further
想一下牛市的困境：到目前为止，他们所有的上涨攻击都失败了，而现在他们
down the line. Just try to imagine the predicament of the bulls: so far all
又一次受到惩罚，并且是在模式线的支持下。如果连一个向上的突破都无法诱
their upside attacks had failed and now they were being reprimanded
使旁观的牛市出手相救，那么牛市又能想些什么呢。
yet again, and in support of a pattern line to boot. If not even an upside
break in support could tempt a sideline bull to come to the rescue, then
what is a bull in position to think.
With a bear break now seriously on the boil, this leaves us to discuss
随着熊市突破现在严重升温，我们需要讨论我们的模式突破入场技巧。尽
our pattern break entry technique. Despite its excellent tip-off, bar 1 2
管它提供了很好的提示，但第12根柱本身并不符合信号柱的标准。如果我们在
itself did not qualify a s a signal bar. Should we have shorted below it,
它下面做空，我们的入场将直接进入模式线的支撑位。在某些情况下，交易者
our entry would have been straight into the support of the pattern line.
可能会决定采取更激进的策略（我们稍后会讨论），但在相对缓慢的图表中，
On certain occasions, a trader could decide to apply a little more ag­
这通常不是明智的选择。最好给市场一个公平的机会来正确设置交易。
gression (we'll take it up later on), but this is seldom a smart idea in a
relatively slow chart. Best to give the market a fair chance to set up the
trade properly.
There were at least five reasons why bar 1 3 fit the description of
至少有五个理由说明第13根柱符合有效信号柱的描述：（1）它是一个强有力
a
valid signal bar: ( 1 ) it was part of a solid squeeze; (2) it nicely filled
的挤压的一部分；（2）它很好地填补了25ema和模式线之间的空间，几乎没有
the space between the 2 5ema and the pattern line, leaving virtually
留下其他柱在挤压中打印的余地；（3）它确认了第12根柱的虚假高点；（4）
no room for another bar to get printed in the squeeze; (3) it confirmed
它以看跌的方式收盘，符合预期的突破，并紧贴模式线；（5）在下方约25点处
the false high at 1 2 ; (4) it closed bearishly, in line with the anticipated
有一个非常有利的50级磁铁在等待。还有什么更多的条件是熊市想要看到的，
break and right up against the pattern line; and (5) there was a highly
以准备行动呢？
favorable 50-level magnet waiting about 25 pip below. What more does
a bear want to see to get ready for action.
In
the vast majority of entries, position is taken the very moment
在绝大多数情况下，当入场K线超过信号K线的高点或低点一个点时，就会立
the entry bar surpasses the high or low of the signal bar by a pip (fire
即建立仓位（例如，在第13根K线下方做空）。当这一刻临近时，准备好将光标
short below bar 13). When this moment draws near, get ready with your
放在买入或卖出单上，但切勿抢先行动；只有在信号K线真正被突破时才执行。
cursor on the buy or sell ticket, but never front-run the event; fire only
when the signal bar is truly taken out.
The
very moment position is taken in the market, a preset bracket
一旦在市场中建立仓位，预设的止盈止损
80
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
will automatically spring into action to eventually close out the trade
for either a profit or loss. As already stated, there are countless ways
to set these orders, but let us for now agree on the suggested 1 0 pip
stop and the 20 pip target. As we will come see many times over in the
pages and chapters ahead, this is an excellent bracket to work with
on a "normally active" 5-minute frame. Should you prefer to manage
your trades on a more discretionary basis, if only on occasion, this is
of course heartily encouraged, but at this stage of our studies our pur­
poses are best served by keeping things both simple and unambiguous.
(Alternative management techniques will be taken up in Chapter 6 on
Manual Exits.)
Note: In most breakout situations, and this regards all setups, we
should only step in if the close of our signal bar is in line with the direc­
tion of the anticipated break. This means we will short below a bearish
bar and enter long above a bullish one. At times, though, neutral dojis
can qualify as signal bars as well, and on occasion we may even accept
a short below a small bullish bar or go long above a small bearish one
(think inside bars) . But at all times it is highly recommended not to
short below a strong bullish bar, or to enter long above a strong bearish
one. These type of entries are less likely to provoke an immediate follow­
through response and thus more likely to present the trade with a bad
start. And that is a situation best avoided, especially when working with
tight stops.
81
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
will automatically spring into action to eventually close out the trade
将自动启动，最终以盈利或亏损结束交易。正如已经说过的，设置这些订单的
for either a profit or loss. As already stated, there are countless ways
方法数不胜数，但现在让我们同意建议的10点止损和20点目标。正如我们将在
to set these orders, but let us for now agree on the suggested 1 0 pip
后面的章节中多次看到的那样，这是一个在“正常活跃”的5分钟框架内使用的
stop and the 20 pip target. As we will come see many times over in the
绝佳范围。如果您更喜欢以更自由的方式管理您的交易，即使只是偶尔，当然
pages and chapters ahead, this is an excellent bracket to work with
也大力鼓励这样做，但在我们研究的这个阶段，我们的目的是最好通过保持简
on a "normally active" 5-minute frame. Should you prefer to manage
单和明确来实现。（替代管理技术将在第6章“手动退出”中讨论。）
your trades on a more discretionary basis, if only on occasion, this is
of course heartily encouraged, but at this stage of our studies our pur­
poses are best served by keeping things both simple and unambiguous.
(Alternative management techniques will be taken up in Chapter 6 on
Manual Exits.)
Note: In most breakout situations, and this regards all setups, we
注意：在大多数突破情况下，这涉及所有设置，我们应该只在信号柱的收盘
should only step in if the close of our signal bar is in line with the direc­
价与预期突破的方向一致时介入。这意味着我们将在看跌柱下方做空，并在看
tion of the anticipated break. This means we will short below a bearish
涨柱上方做多。然而，有时中性十字星也可以作为信号柱，并且在某些情况下
bar and enter long above a bullish one. At times, though, neutral dojis
，我们甚至可以接受在小看涨柱下方做空或在小看跌柱上方做多（想想内部柱
can
qualify as signal bars as well, and on occasion we may even accept
）。但在任何时候，强烈建议不要在强看涨柱下方做空，或在强看跌柱上方做
a short below a small bullish bar or go long above a small bearish one
多。这些类型的入场不太可能引发立即的跟进反应，因此更可能使交易面临不
(think inside bars) . But at all times it is highly recommended not to
良开局。这种情况最好避免，尤其是在使用紧止损时。
short below a strong bullish bar, or to enter long above a strong bearish
one. These type of entries are less likely to provoke an immediate follow­
through response and thus more likely to present the trade with a bad
start. And that is a situation best avoided, especially when working with
tight stops.
81
Understanding Price Action
IFig 5.21
'tIiIINI.ProReamme.com
2
eur/usd 5·minU1e
....
08:00
moo
'0:00
11:00
12;00
Figure 5.2 There's no denying the pressure was up from the moment the
European opening bell rang at 08:00. Just look at that bull swing 1 -2,
not a bearish bar in it. Savvy contrarians may have smacked their lips
at the sight of it, but from where we stand, there will be no selling such
an opening rally.
Bar 2 , and the two bars before it, show what is referred to as top­
ping tails. In Japanese candlestick analysis, a tail is the part of the bar
outside the body (can be a bottoming tail also). If rather tall, it indicates
that in the course of bar formation, prices reached a certain high or
low but then closed significantly away from that level (price rejection).
Tail bars in the current highs or lows of a rally can provide valuable
information indeed, but to take a reversal position merely on account of
their presence can be a very dangerous practice. Aspiring contrarians
should take note.
Even so, no rally can last forever and all have to face a serious pull­
back at some point. Yet if the trending move was any good, we can
almost be certain that there will be many parties on the lookout to pick
up prices on a correction of sorts. If so, the key question is, how far will
prices retrace?
We have already voiced the dangers of trying to simply guess the
turning point of a pullback. Arguably, a safer approach would be to wait
for prices to stall first and then try to hop on. Unfortunately, that can
be tricky also; many times the initial stalling is only temporary and the
pullback may retrace a little deeper still. For example, bulls who entered
long in bar 3 , or above it, were the first casualties to fall in the failed
82
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
I图
5.21
Fig5.2
'tIiIINI.ProReamme.com
2
eur/usd5 5·minU1e
欧元/美元
分钟
oффр
....
08:00
moo
'0:00
11:00
12;00
Figure
5.2 There's no denying the pressure was up from the moment the
图5.2
不可否认，从欧洲开盘铃声响起的那一刻起，压力就已经上来了。看看那
European
opening bell rang at 08:00. Just look at that bull swing 1 -2,
一波牛市的1-2，没有任何看跌的蜡烛。精明的逆势者可能会在看到这一幕时舔
not a bearish bar in it. Savvy contrarians may have smacked their lips
舔嘴唇，但在我们看来，没有人会在这样的开盘反弹中选择卖出。
at the sight of it, but from where we stand, there will be no selling such
an opening rally.
Bar2，以及之前的两个柱子，显示了所谓的顶部尾巴。在日本蜡烛图分析中
2 , and the two bars before it, show what is referred to as top­
Bar
ping
tails. In Japanese candlestick analysis, a tail is the part of the bar
，尾巴是指柱子外部的部分（也可以是底部尾巴）。如果尾巴相对较高，表明在
outside the body (can be a bottoming tail also). If rather tall, it indicates
柱子形成过程中，价格达到了某个高点或低点，但随后显著远离该水平收盘（价
that
in the course of bar formation, prices reached a certain high or
格拒绝）。在当前反弹的高点或低点的尾巴柱可以提供非常有价值的信息，但
low
but then closed significantly away from that level (price rejection).
仅仅因为它们的存在就采取反转头寸可能是一种非常危险的做法。渴望逆势而
Tail bars in the current highs or lows of a rally can provide valuable
为的人应该注意。
information indeed, but to take a reversal position merely on account of
their presence can be a very dangerous practice. Aspiring contrarians
should take note.
Even so, no rally can last forever and all have to face a serious pull­
即便如此，没有任何反弹可以永远持续，所有反弹在某个时刻都必须面对
back at some point. Yet if the trending move was any good, we can
严重的回调。然而，如果趋势走势足够好，我们几乎可以肯定会有许多人在寻
almost be certain that there will be many parties on the lookout to pick
找机会以便在某种修正中买入价格。那么，关键问题是，价格将回调多远？
up prices on a correction of sorts. If so, the key question is, how far will
prices retrace?
We have already voiced the dangers of trying to simply guess the
我们已经表达了试图简单猜测回调的转折点的危险。可以说，更安全的方
turning
point of a pullback. Arguably, a safer approach would be to wait
法是先等待价格停滞，然后再试图介入。不幸的是，这也可能很棘手；很多时
for prices to stall first and then try to hop on. Unfortunately, that can
候，初始的停滞只是暂时的，回调可能会进一步回撤。例如，在第3根柱子上
be
tricky also; many times the initial stalling is only temporary and the
，或者在其上方进入多头的交易者，成为了失败的第一个牺牲品。
pullback may retrace a little deeper still. For example, bulls who entered
long in bar 3 , or above it, were the first casualties to fall in the failed
82
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
pullback reversal. Those who stepped in on the break of bar 4 (better
already) may soon have regretted their purchases also.
Troubling the bulls here was the fact that the 1 -2 rally had been so
one-sided (no stalling on the way up) that it failed to offer a decent level
of support for a pullback to gun for and turn around in. In such cases,
there is usually less consensus on where to pick up the reversal, even
when plenty of bulls are aiming to buy. And as the buying thus comes
in less unanimously, prices tend to respond less unanimously also. The
25ema can sometimes help out, as it tried to do at 4, but without a
technical element to coincide with its slope, the supporting powers of a
moving average are usually little more than an optical illusion.
As it turned out, it needed a deeper pullback for the bulls to come
out and defend the opening rally with a little more verve (5-6). Even
though the tiny bottoming tail of bar 6 was not a great marker of bullish
enthusiasm yet, bears did take heed of this bar's message, if only for
the fact that prices now resided in the notorious 60 percent retracement
wne of the 1 -2 rally: a last resort for the bulls to keep the pressure up.
To the careless eye, progression 6-8 may seem like a nondescript set
of little doji bars; but if we examine the action more closely, these bars
tell us the interesting story of how the bulls and bears fought it out in
the lows of that pullback. Note that within this progression most bars
closed away from their lows, already a fair indication that bears were
slowly being pushed aside.
Let's worn in a little further. With the two doji bars at 8 together
taking ten minutes to complete there was ample time to plot the de­
scending pattern line as depicted. While the highs of these dojis were
thus curbed by the resistance of a pattern line, their lows found support
in the highs of another doji duo, the two bars at 7 . Perhaps not a perfect
squeeze, but there was little room to move without breaking out either
way, and this always adds to the tension.
A development that favored the bull breakout was the fact that the
entry bar (above the arrow) had first taken out the low of its direct
neighbor only to reverse strongly up (false low). From this still picture,
though, we cannot tell with certainty whether this took place before or
after the pattern line was broken, but if we consider the opening price
83
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 模式突破
pullback
reversal. Those who stepped in on the break of bar 4 (better
那些在第4根柱子突破时介入的交易者（更好的是已经介入）也可能很快后悔他
already) may soon have regretted their purchases also.
们的购买。
Troubling
the bulls here was the fact that the 1 -2 rally had been so
困扰多头的是，1-2的反弹如此单方面（一路上没有停滞），以至于未能提
one-sided (no stalling on the way up) that it failed to offer a decent level
供一个合理的支撑位供回调使用并反转。在这种情况下，通常对反转的买入位
of support for a pullback to gun for and turn around in. In such cases,
置缺乏共识，即使有很多多头希望买入。因此，随着买入的意愿不那么一致
there is usually less consensus on where to pick up the reversal, even
，价格的反应也往往不那么一致。25ema有时可以提供帮助，正如它在4处所尝
when plenty of bulls are aiming to buy. And as the buying thus comes
试的那样，但如果没有技术因素与其斜率相吻合，移动平均线的支撑作用通常
in
less unanimously, prices tend to respond less unanimously also. The
不过是光学幻觉。
25ema can sometimes help out, as it tried to do at 4, but without a
technical element to coincide with its slope, the supporting powers of a
moving average are usually little more than an optical illusion.
As it turned out, it needed a deeper pullback for the bulls to come
事实证明，多头需要更深的回调，以便以更强的气势捍卫开盘反弹（5-6）
out and defend the opening rally with a little more verve (5-6). Even
。尽管第6根柱子的微小底部尾巴并不是多头热情的良好标志，但空头确实注
though the tiny bottoming tail of bar 6 was not a great marker of bullish
意到了这根柱子的信号，至少因为价格现在处于1-2反弹的60%回撤区间：这是
enthusiasm
yet, bears did take heed of this bar's message, if only for
多头保持压力的最后一招。对于粗心的眼睛来说，进程6-8可能看起来是一组
the fact that prices now resided in the notorious 60 percent retracement
不起眼的小十字星柱；但如果我们更仔细地审视这些动作，这些柱子向我们
wne
of the 1 -2 rally: a last resort for the bulls to keep the pressure up.
讲述了多头和空头在回调低点的斗争的有趣故事。注意，在这个进程中，大
To the careless eye, progression 6-8 may seem like a nondescript set
多数柱子收盘价远离其低点，已经相当表明空头正在慢慢被挤开。
of little doji bars; but if we examine the action more closely, these bars
tell us the interesting story of how the bulls and bears fought it out in
the lows of that pullback. Note that within this progression most bars
closed away from their lows, already a fair indication that bears were
slowly being pushed aside.
Let's worn in a little further. With the two doji bars at 8 together
让我们再仔细看看。在8点的两个十字星柱形图一起花费了十分钟完成的情
taking
ten minutes to complete there was ample time to plot the de­
况下，有足够的时间绘制如图所示的下降趋势线。虽然这些十字星的高点受到
scending
pattern line as depicted. While the highs of these dojis were
趋势线的阻力限制，但它们的低点在7点的另一对十字星的高点找到了支撑。也
thus
curbed by the resistance of a pattern line, their lows found support
许这不是一个完美的挤压，但在不突破的情况下几乎没有空间移动，这总是增
in
the highs of another doji duo, the two bars at 7 . Perhaps not a perfect
加了紧张感。
squeeze, but there was little room to move without breaking out either
way, and this always adds to the tension.
A development that favored the bull breakout was the fact that the
有利于牛市突破的发展是，入场柱（箭头上方）首先击穿了其直接邻居的低
entry bar (above the arrow) had first taken out the low of its direct
点，然后强劲反弹（虚假低点）。然而，从这个静态图像中，我们无法确定这
neighbor
only to reverse strongly up (false low). From this still picture,
是否发生在趋势线被突破之前或之后，但如果我们考虑开盘价
though, we cannot tell with certainty whether this took place before or
after the pattern line was broken, but if we consider the opening price
83
Understanding Price Action
of our entry bar, it is fair to assume that the false low was put in first.
While this particular break may have been accepted either way, given
the bullish prospects, the false low scenario prior to entry is of course
the preferable order.
Next to examining the conditions that favor a positive outcome, we
should also scan the chart for elements of potential obstruction on the
road to target. When doing so, it is good to realize that a free path out is
probably more rare than common. A former swing high or low may not
pose too big a problem; double tops and bottoms can be a little tougher
to crack but need not necessarily be feared when not too prominently
displayed in the chart. Never pleasant, though, are fat, blocky clusters
of price action not too far to the left that need to be eaten through to get
to target. (We will see plenty of this soon enough.)
As to the bull trade in question, there was little call for pessimism
when aiming for a 20 pip target; in fact, there were two eventualities
likely to help the trade along: first there was the magnetic pull of the
50-level to get prices going, and then there was the former high of 2 to
finish off the job. Recalling our discussions on price action principles,
former highs and lows can be strong magnets also.
In this instance, resistance may have kicked in just a pip shy of
target (9) . Since few trades will reach destination without suffering at
least a little setback on the way, it's best to stay calm when this hap­
pens and just wait for the trade to recoup. Of course, never pleasant is
to see a pullback suddenly eat back all the open profits on a trade and
then even go on to challenge the stop. But it is vital to accept that this is
an inevitable part of the trading game and best taken in stride. Cleverly
pulling away a stop in the hopes of a favorable bounce (at 1 O?) may oc­
casionally save a trade from annihilation, but it is a terrible practice to
engage in and a losing proposition on the whole. Regardless of style and
technique, one of the first tasks in trading, for any trader, is to learn
how to take a loss gracefully.
Bulls did come out to defend their pattern line ( 1 -6- 1 0), but few were
prepared to join higher up. We can imagine the round number overhead
and the now prominent double top a little above it (2-9) to have played
their part in this lack of buying enthusiasm.
84
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
of our entry bar, it is fair to assume that the false low was put in first.
考虑到我们入场的情况，可以合理地假设假低是首先出现的。虽然这个特定的
While
this particular break may have been accepted either way, given
突破可能以任何方式被接受，但鉴于看涨的前景，入场前的假低情景当然是更
the bullish prospects, the false low scenario prior to entry is of course
可取的顺序。
the preferable order.
Next to examining the conditions that favor a positive outcome, we
在检查有利于积极结果的条件时，我们还应该扫描图表，寻找在通往目标
should also scan the chart for elements of potential obstruction on the
的道路上可能存在的障碍元素。在这样做时，意识到通往目标的畅通无阻的
road
to target. When doing so, it is good to realize that a free path out is
路径可能比常见的更为罕见是很重要的。以前的波动高点或低点可能不会造
probably
more rare than common. A former swing high or low may not
成太大的问题；双顶和双底可能会更难突破，但在图表中不太明显时并不一
pose
too big a problem; double tops and bottoms can be a little tougher
定需要害怕。然而，令人不快的是，离目标不远的价格行为的厚重、块状聚集
to crack but need not necessarily be feared when not too prominently
需要被消耗掉才能到达目标。（我们很快会看到这一点。）
displayed in the chart. Never pleasant, though, are fat, blocky clusters
of price action not too far to the left that need to be eaten through to get
to target. (We will see plenty of this soon enough.)
As to the bull trade in question, there was little call for pessimism
关于这个牛市交易，针对20点目标几乎没有悲观的理由；事实上，有两个
when aiming for a 20 pip target; in fact, there were two eventualities
可能性可以帮助交易顺利进行：首先是50水平的磁力可以推动价格上涨，其
likely to help the trade along: first there was the magnetic pull of the
次是2的前高可以完成这个任务。回想我们关于价格行为原则的讨论，前高和
50-level to get prices going, and then there was the former high of 2 to
前低也可以是强大的吸引力。
finish off the job. Recalling our discussions on price action principles,
former highs and lows can be strong magnets also.
In this instance, resistance may have kicked in just a pip shy of
在这种情况下，阻力可能在目标（9）前一pip处出现。由于很少有交易会在
target (9) . Since few trades will reach destination without suffering at
到达目的地之前不经历一些回调，因此在这种情况下保持冷静是最好的选择，
least a little setback on the way, it's best to stay calm when this hap­
只需等待交易恢复。当然，看到回调突然吞噬所有未实现的利润，然后甚至挑
pens
and just wait for the trade to recoup. Of course, never pleasant is
战止损是非常不愉快的。但必须接受这是交易游戏中不可避免的一部分，并且
to see a pullback suddenly eat back all the open profits on a trade and
最好以平常心对待。聪明地将止损移开以期望获得有利的反弹（在10？）可能
then even go on to challenge the stop. But it is vital to accept that this is
偶尔会拯救交易免于被消灭，但这是一种可怕的做法，整体上是一个失败的策
an inevitable part of the trading game and best taken in stride. Cleverly
略。无论风格和技巧如何，任何交易者在交易中的首要任务之一就是学会优雅
pulling away a stop in the hopes of a favorable bounce (at 1 O?) may oc­
地接受损失。
casionally save a trade from annihilation, but it is a terrible practice to
engage in and a losing proposition on the whole. Regardless of style and
technique, one of the first tasks in trading, for any trader, is to learn
how to take a loss gracefully.
Bulls did come out to defend their pattern line ( 1 -6- 1 0), but few were
公牛确实出来捍卫他们的模式线（1-6-10），但很少有人准备在更高的位置
prepared to join higher up. We can imagine the round number overhead
加入。我们可以想象，头顶的整数关口和现在显著的双顶（2-9）在这种缺乏买
and the now prominent double top a little above it (2-9) to have played
入热情中发挥了作用。
their part in this lack of buying enthusiasm.
84
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
A development of attention is progression 1 0 - 1 3 ; even though the
25ema is running flatly through this buildup, this is a squeeze variant,
too, with the bars now caught between pattern line support and 50-level
resistance. Whenever a cluster of bars shows up between two opposing
elements, of whatever kind, this always raises the tension-and sooner
or later demands a conclusion.
Let us zoom in on this seven-bar squeeze to find out if we could
have seen the break below bar 1 3 coming. To begin, the buildup had
started out with the 1 0- 1 1 bull swing, which was a perfect ceiling test
with the 8-9- 1 0 arch, and also a failure of the bulls to reach the 50-level
magnet. As prices fell back to the pattern line, bulls quickly responded
by swinging them back up (higher low) . But before the high of bar 1 1
was reached, prices fell back to the pattern line once more (lower high).
With now two false highs in the squeeze, and prices closing bearishly on
the pattern line as well ( 1 3), the situation had reached a critical phase.
Should bar 13 be broken at the bottom, not only would this technically
confirm the false high in bar 1 2 (bull break followed by a bear break),
it would show that sideline bulls were no longer able, or willing, to de­
fend their pattern line support. And that left the bulls in position highly
exposed, possibly prompting many of them to bail out to keep their
damages small. Couple that to the bearish outlook, and we indeed have
all the ingredients here for a nice double-pressure pop on the sell side
(enter short on the break of bar 1 3) .
Notice that our entry bar, below the arrow, did not sell off right away.
Evidently, even in the face of a solid break, contrarian parties can be
very resilient. But do not let this disturb you. A bit of pulling and push­
ing in the breakout area is all part of the game for dominance. Whatever
you do, avoid exiting in the entry bar itself. Nine times out of ten that will
be a fear-based exit, and a poor one at that. Also, with a stop safely in
place, what is there to fear? This is not to suggest that an open position
cannot be validly exited before either the stop or target is reached, but
bailing out in the entry bar is seldom a valid display of such technique.
For now, let's just stick to a rigid application of the 20/ 1 0 bracket and
see what that brings.
85
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
A development of attention is progression 1 0 - 1 3 ; even though the
关注的发展是进展10-13；尽管25ema在这个积累过程中运行平稳，这也是一种
25ema is running flatly through this buildup, this is a squeeze variant,
挤压变体，条形图现在被困在模式线支撑和50级阻力之间。每当一组条形图在两
too, with the bars now caught between pattern line support and 50-level
种对立元素之间出现时，无论是什么类型，这总会提高紧张感——迟早会要求一
resistance. Whenever a cluster of bars shows up between two opposing
个结论。
elements, of whatever kind, this always raises the tension-and sooner
or later demands a conclusion.
Let us zoom in on this seven-bar squeeze to find out if we could
让我们放大这个七条柱的挤压，看看我们是否能看到第13条柱下破的迹象。
have seen the break below bar 1 3 coming. To begin, the buildup had
首先，积累是从10-11的牛市反弹开始的，这是一个完美的天花板测试，伴随着8
started
out with the 1 0- 1 1 bull swing, which was a perfect ceiling test
-9-10的弧形，同时也是公牛未能达到50级磁铁的失败。当价格回落到模式线时
with
the 8-9- 1 0 arch, and also a failure of the bulls to reach the 50-level
，公牛迅速反应，将价格再次拉升（更高的低点）。但在第11条柱的高点到达
magnet.
As prices fell back to the pattern line, bulls quickly responded
之前，价格再次回落到模式线（更低的高点）。在挤压中出现了两个虚假的高
by
swinging
them back up (higher low) . But before the high of bar 1 1
点，价格在模式线（13）上以看跌的方式收盘，情况达到了一个关键阶段。如
was reached, prices fell back to the pattern line once more (lower high).
果第13条柱在底部被突破，不仅会在技术上确认第12条柱的虚假高点（牛市突
With
now two false highs in the squeeze, and prices closing bearishly on
破后跟随熊市突破），还会显示场外公牛不再能够或愿意捍卫他们的模式线支
the pattern line as well ( 1 3), the situation had reached a critical phase.
撑。这使得公牛处于高度暴露的状态，可能促使许多人退出以保持损失小。再
Should
bar 13 be broken at the bottom, not only would this technically
加上看跌的前景，我们确实在这里拥有了一个良好的双重压力卖出机会（在第1
confirm the false high in bar 1 2 (bull break followed by a bear break),
3条柱突破时进入空头）。
it would show that sideline bulls were no longer able, or willing, to de­
fend their pattern line support. And that left the bulls in position highly
exposed, possibly prompting many of them to bail out to keep their
damages small. Couple that to the bearish outlook, and we indeed have
all the ingredients here for a nice double-pressure pop on the sell side
(enter short on the break of bar 1 3) .
Notice
that our entry bar, below the arrow, did not sell off right away.
请注意，我们的入场条形图（在箭头下方）并没有立即下跌。显然，即使
Evidently, even in the face of a solid break, contrarian parties can be
在强劲突破的情况下，逆势交易者也可以表现得非常顽强。但这不必让你感到
very
resilient. But do not let this disturb you. A bit of pulling and push­
困扰。在突破区域的拉锯战是争夺主导地位的游戏的一部分。无论你做什么，
ing
in the breakout area is all part of the game for dominance. Whatever
都要避免在入场条形图中退出。十有九次，这将是基于恐惧的退出，而这通常
you do, avoid exiting in the entry bar itself. Nine times out of ten that will
是一个糟糕的选择。此外，既然止损已经安全设置，还有什么好害怕的呢？这
be a fear-based exit, and a poor one at that. Also, with a stop safely in
并不是说在止损或目标达到之前，开放的头寸不能有效退出，但在入场条形图
place, what is there to fear? This is not to suggest that an open position
中退出通常不是有效的技术表现。现在，让我们坚持严格应用20/10的区间，看
cannot
be validly exited before either the stop or target is reached, but
看会带来什么。
bailing out in the entry bar is seldom a valid display of such technique.
For now, let's just stick to a rigid application of the 20/ 1 0 bracket and
see what that brings.
85
Understanding Price Action
IFig 5.31
_.ProRoammo.com
our/usd 5-minuto
1 .335
1 .33
o ProReaTine.com
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10;00
Figure 5.3 To avoid trading against dominance, our first task in any
session is to examine the bigger picture. An excellent starting point is
to monitor the directional efforts of the 25ema. Is the average sloping
down, with most bars traveling below it, we are currently dealing with
a southbound market and our trades are best chosen in line with this
slope (lengthy flag-type corrections may form an exception).
Another way to get a dependable idea on the pressures in play-and
very handy also when the average is running more or less flat-is to
track the last so many arches in the chart and see how they relate to
one another. Figure 5.3 demonstrates how this can be helpful. Starting
from 07:00, we can count four arches standing in support of the round
number of 1 .33: progressions 1 -2-F, F-3-T, T -4-5 and 5-6-7. As is often
the case, the first arch is the biggest of the series and the rest gradually
goes down in size. Sometimes an arch in the middle will be the most
prominent, as in a head-and-shoulders variant, but whenever there is
a smaller arch following, the implications are basically the same. Natu­
rally, the last arch is the one to observe with most attention for detail,
particularly when compressed. Not seldom this arch is so flattened out,
as was the case with the 5-6-7 progression, that it is hardly recogniz­
able as an actual arch (think squeeze) . Needless to say, all this applies
to a bullish chart also, with V-shaped arches hanging below a barrier,
working up to an upside break. Furthermore, we will not only find these
arches standing on or hanging below a horizontal barrier, they can just
as well reside beneath or on top of a tilted pattern line. Have a look
again at our previous chart, Figure 5.2, and check out the three arches
86
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
IFig
5.31
图 5.3
_.ProRoammo.com
欧元/美元 5-minuto
5 分钟
our/usd
1 .335
1 .33
o ProReaTine.com
05:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
09:00
10;00
Figure
5.3 To avoid trading against dominance, our first task in any
图5.3
为了避免与主导趋势相悖，我们在任何交易会中的首要任务是审视整体情况
session
is to examine the bigger picture. An excellent starting point is
。一个很好的起点是监测25ema的方向性努力。如果平均线向下倾斜，并且大多数K
to monitor the directional efforts of the 25ema. Is the average sloping
线都在其下方，那么我们当前正处于一个南向市场，我们的交易最好与这个趋势保
down, with most bars traveling below it, we are currently dealing with
持一致（较长的旗形修正可能是一个例外）。
a southbound market and our trades are best chosen in line with this
slope (lengthy flag-type corrections may form an exception).
Another way to get a dependable idea on the pressures in play-and
另一种获取当前压力的可靠方法——当平均线大致平坦时也非常有用——是
very
handy also when the average is running more or less flat-is to
跟踪图表中最近的几个弧形，并观察它们之间的关系。图5.3展示了这如何有助
track the last so many arches in the chart and see how they relate to
于分析。从07:00开始，我们可以计算出四个弧形支撑着1.33的整数关口：进程1-2
one another. Figure 5.3 demonstrates how this can be helpful. Starting
-F，F-3-T，T-4-5和5-6-7。通常情况下，第一个弧形是系列中最大的，其余的逐渐
from 07:00, we can count four arches standing in support of the round
减小。有时中间的一个弧形会是最显著的，就像头肩形态的变体，但只要后面
number
of 1 .33: progressions 1 -2-F, F-3-T, T -4-5 and 5-6-7. As is often
有一个较小的弧形，其含义基本上是相同的。自然，最后一个弧形是最值得关
the
case, the first arch is the biggest of the series and the rest gradually
注的，尤其是在压缩时。这个弧形往往是如此平坦，以至于像5-6-7进程那样，
goes down in size. Sometimes an arch in the middle will be the most
几乎无法识别为一个实际的弧形（想象一下挤压）。不必说，所有这些同样适
prominent,
as in a head-and-shoulders variant, but whenever there is
用于看涨图表，U形弧形悬挂在一个障碍下，努力向上突破。此外，我们不仅会
a smaller arch following, the implications are basically the same. Natu­
发现这些弧形位于水平障碍上或悬挂在其下方，它们也可以位于倾斜的模式线
rally,
the last arch is the one to observe with most attention for detail,
下方或上方。再看看我们之前的图表，图5.2，检查一下三个弧形。
particularly when compressed. Not seldom this arch is so flattened out,
as was the case with the 5-6-7 progression, that it is hardly recogniz­
able as an actual arch (think squeeze) . Needless to say, all this applies
to a bullish chart also, with V-shaped arches hanging below a barrier,
working up to an upside break. Furthermore, we will not only find these
arches standing on or hanging below a horizontal barrier, they can just
as well reside beneath or on top of a tilted pattern line. Have a look
again at our previous chart, Figure 5.2, and check out the three arches
86
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
standing on top of the ascending pattern line. Note also that the last
arch was a squeeze progression leading up to the break below bar 1 3 .
The great benefit o f these arch progressions is that they are very
easy to track and seldom demand a high level of attention when still in
development. When dealing with a multiple-arch formation in the mak­
ing, we usually get fair warning as to when to sharpen our focus. For
example, even though the false break at F, the tease break at T and the
false highs at 3 and 4 were all interesting elements to detect, none of
them got us anywhere near a trade at the time. In the end, all we had to
do was keep a half eye on the action until things called for a little more
attention, probably somewhere around bar 5.
Although in most sessions we can usually tell the bullying party from
the underlying one in little more than a glance, we should never make
assumptions on the outcomes of their battles. What we can do, howev­
er, is promise ourselves not to trade in favor of the oppressed for as long
as their underlying status has not been set straight. In the chart above,
the down-sloping 25ema and the shrinking arches clearly let on that
the bears currently had the best of the action; in fact, bulls could do
little else than bravely defend themselves against the repeated attacks
on the round number of 1 .33. Without thinking short yet, this tells us
that all bets on the buy side are off for the moment.
As is very common in a: round number fight, there were incidental
perforations below the level but they did not lead to immediate collapse.
Always keep in mind that round number defense can be very tenacious
and perforations seldom follow through without at least some form of
buildup backing up the charge.
Notice that the false break at F was no cause to redraw the box yet
(its falseness validated the prior low of 1 ) ; but when later on the lows of
5 and 6 came to match the low of F, the barrier could have been lowered
to the level of the dotted line (now ignoring the break at T) . It remained
to be seen, though, how indicative a mere break of this "tricky" barrier
would be with the round number still very much in play. While it could
never hurt to put the level in, this is one such situation in which we
should be extra cautious not to get trapped into a premature break; a
careful tracking of the buildup in the round number area is paramount.
87
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
standing on top of the ascending pattern line. Note also that the last
站在上升模式线的顶部。还要注意，最后的弧形是一个挤压进程，导致了第13
arch was a squeeze progression leading up to the break below bar 1 3 .
根柱子下方的突破。
The
great benefit o f these arch progressions is that they are very
这些弧形进展的最大好处在于，它们非常容易追踪，并且在仍处于发展阶段
easy to track and seldom demand a high level of attention when still in
时，通常不需要高度关注。当处理一个正在形成的多弧形结构时，我们通常会
development. When dealing with a multiple-arch formation in the mak­
得到明确的警告，告诉我们何时需要集中注意力。例如，尽管F处的假突破、T
ing, we usually get fair warning as to when to sharpen our focus. For
处的诱导突破以及3和4处的假高点都是值得关注的元素，但在当时它们并没有
example, even though the false break at F, the tease break at T and the
让我们接近交易。最终，我们所要做的就是稍微关注一下市场动态，直到事情
false highs at 3 and 4 were all interesting elements to detect, none of
需要更多关注，可能是在第5根柱子附近。
them got us anywhere near a trade at the time. In the end, all we had to
do was keep a half eye on the action until things called for a little more
attention, probably somewhere around bar 5.
Although in most sessions we can usually tell the bullying party from
尽管在大多数交易中，我们通常可以一眼看出施压方和被压迫方，但我们绝
the underlying one in little more than a glance, we should never make
不能对他们斗争的结果做出假设。然而，我们可以承诺自己，在被压迫方的基本
assumptions on the outcomes of their battles. What we can do, howev­
状态尚未得到纠正之前，不进行有利于他们的交易。在上面的图表中，向下倾斜
er, is promise ourselves not to trade in favor of the oppressed for as long
的25ema和缩小的弧形清楚地表明，空头目前在市场上占据了优势；事实上，多
as their underlying status has not been set straight. In the chart above,
头几乎无能为力，只能勇敢地抵御对1.33这一整数关口的反复攻击。在尚未考虑
the down-sloping 25ema and the shrinking arches clearly let on that
做空的情况下，这告诉我们，当前所有的买入交易都是不明智的。
the bears currently had the best of the action; in fact, bulls could do
little else than bravely defend themselves against the repeated attacks
on the round number of 1 .33. Without thinking short yet, this tells us
that all bets on the buy side are off for the moment.
As is very common in a: round number fight, there were incidental
在一个常见的整数关口战斗中，虽然在水平线以下有偶发的穿透，但并没
perforations below the level but they did not lead to immediate collapse.
有导致立即崩溃。始终要记住，整数关口的防守可能非常顽强，穿透通常不
Always keep in mind that round number defense can be very tenacious
会在没有至少某种形式的积累支持的情况下持续下去。
and perforations seldom follow through without at least some form of
buildup backing up the charge.
Notice that the false break at F was no cause to redraw the box yet
注意到F处的虚假突破并没有导致重新绘制箱体（其虚假性验证了1的先前低
(its falseness validated the prior low of 1 ) ; but when later on the lows of
点）；但当后来5和6的低点与F的低点相匹配时，障碍可以降低到虚线的水平（
5 and 6 came to match the low of F, the barrier could have been lowered
现在忽略T处的突破）。然而，尚不清楚仅仅突破这个“棘手”障碍会有多具指示
to the level of the dotted line (now ignoring the break at T) . It remained
性，因为整数关口仍然非常重要。虽然放置这个水平永远不会有坏处，但这是
to be seen, though, how indicative a mere break of this "tricky" barrier
一个我们应该特别小心不要陷入过早突破的情况；在整数关口区域仔细跟踪积
would be with the round number still very much in play. While it could
累是至关重要的。
never hurt to put the level in, this is one such situation in which we
should be extra cautious not to get trapped into a premature break; a
careful tracking of the buildup in the round number area is paramount.
87
Understanding Price Action
Progression 5-8 was a four-bar squeeze caught between the barrier
and the 25ema; but prior to its bearish close, bar 8 had already per­
forated the dotted line by a pip. Perhaps a less conservative bear may
have deemed this a good enough signal to have fired short straightaway,
as opposed to waiting for bar 8 to close and be broken by another bar.
But that would have left the squeeze rather thinly built up. In most
similar situations, and in the tricky environment of round number de­
fense in particular, my advice would be to sooner wait for an extra bar
to fatten up the squeeze than to act on a somewhat premature break
in fear of missing out. In this view, the entry below bar 8 is the more
textbook pattern break short.
If fear of missing out is an issue in your trading, causing you to act
before your turn a little too often, consider concentrating on indisput­
able breakouts only; a great benefit of this approach is that you can now
validly skip all breaks that do not qualify as such, without feeling upset
if they do follow through.
Granted, since there are no absolutes in trading, at times there can
exist a thin line between a "proper" break and its premature counter­
part. As a rule of thumb, the bigger the total pattern and the stronger
its relevant barrier, the more work to be done by the assailers to crack
it convincingly. There is never a specific minimum of bars required, but
the fatter the buildup (say, at least four bars), the better we can form
ourselves an idea on who is likely to come out on top in the squeeze. In
a pullback reversal, on the other hand (as opposed to a bigger pattern
breakout) , the break in the turn may set up much faster and it may
take no more than a single bar for a setup to earn validity status. (Will
be taken up later in this chapter.)
Situations like the one above show us also that it isn't necessary to
always work with a nondebatable pattern line and a perfect signal bar
to match it. The general idea is to trade off the most cmcial bar in the
barrier area. Sometimes we may even find our entry before the pattern
boundary is visibly broken, but more common is for the signal bar to
either line up with the barrier or reside slightly out, as was the case
with bar 8.
88
Understanding Price
Action
价格行为
理解
Progression 5-8 was a four-bar squeeze caught between the barrier
进展5-8是一个四根柱子之间的挤压，夹在障碍和25ema之间；但在其看跌收
and the 25ema; but prior to its bearish
close, bar 8 had already per­
盘之前，第8根柱子已经穿透了虚线一
pip。也许一个不那么保守的空头可能会
forated the dotted line by a pip. Perhaps a less conservative bear may
认为这是一个足够好的信号，可以立即做空，而不是等到第8根柱子收盘并被另
have
deemed this a good enough signal to have fired short straightaway,
一根柱子突破。但这将使挤压的构建相对薄弱。在大多数类似情况下，尤其是
as opposed to waiting for bar 8 to close and be broken by another bar.
在整数关口防守的棘手环境中，我的建议是，宁可等多一根柱子来加厚挤压，
But that would have left the squeeze rather thinly built up. In most
也不要因为害怕错过而对一个稍显过早的突破采取行动。在这种观点下，第8根
similar
situations, and in the tricky environment of round number de­
柱子下方的入场是更符合教科书模式的看跌突破。
fense in particular, my advice would be to sooner wait for an extra bar
to fatten up the squeeze than to act on a somewhat premature break
in fear of missing out. In this view, the entry below bar 8 is the more
textbook pattern break short.
If
fear of missing out is an issue in your trading, causing you to act
如果害怕错过是你交易中的一个问题，导致你在轮到你之前过于频繁地采取
before
your turn a little too often, consider concentrating on indisput­
行动，考虑专注于无可争辩的突破；这种方法的一个巨大好处是，你现在可以
able breakouts only; a great benefit of this approach is that you can now
有效地跳过所有不符合此标准的突破，而不会感到沮丧，即使它们确实跟进。
validly skip all breaks that do not qualify as such, without feeling upset
if they do follow through.
Granted,
since there are no absolutes in trading, at times there can
确实，由于交易中没有绝对的规则，有时在“适当”的突破和其过早的对立
exist a thin line between a "proper" break and its premature counter­
面之间可能存在一条微妙的界线。作为经验法则，整体模式越大，相关障碍越
part. As a rule of thumb, the bigger the total pattern and the stronger
强，攻击者要想有说服力地突破它所需的工作就越多。没有特定的最低条数要
its
relevant barrier, the more work to be done by the assailers to crack
求，但如果积累的条数较多（例如，至少四根条），我们就能更好地形成对在
it convincingly. There is never a specific minimum of bars required, but
挤压中谁可能胜出的想法。在回调反转中，另一方面（与更大的模式突破相对
the fatter the buildup (say, at least four bars), the better we can form
），转折中的突破可能会更快地建立，可能只需一根条就能获得有效状态。（
ourselves an idea on who is likely to come out on top in the squeeze. In
将在本章后面讨论。）
a pullback reversal, on the other hand (as opposed to a bigger pattern
breakout) , the break in the turn may set up much faster and it may
take no more than a single bar for a setup to earn validity status. (Will
be taken up later in this chapter.)
像上面这样的情况也向我们展示，不一定总是需要与无可争辩的模式线和完美
Situations like the one above show us also that it isn't necessary to
的信号条相匹配。一般的想法是从障碍区域中最关键的条进行交易。有时我们甚至
always work with a nondebatable pattern line and a perfect signal bar
可能在模式边界明显被突破之前找到我们的入场点，但更常见的是信号条要么与障
to
match it. The general idea is to trade off the most cmcial bar in the
碍对齐，要么稍微偏离，就像第8根条的情况。
barrier area. Sometimes we may even find our entry before the pattern
boundary is visibly broken, but more common is for the signal bar to
either line up with the barrier or reside slightly out, as was the case
with bar 8.
88
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
Note: When trading off a signal bar that is sticking out, we do not
want this bar to be overly tall, or produce an entry too far away from
the broken pattern line. While nothing is ever carved in stone, always
a preferable condition in a pattern break scenario is to have the stop
reside inside the pattern; this will allow for a pullback to test back the
broken barrier without immediately getting shaken out.
Countless charts in this guide will show that if you trade from build­
up, it is absolutely doable to come in with a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip
target. Surely, in the early stages of your price action journey, it may
not always be so evident to tell the difference between an indisputable
entry and one that can be deemed a little premature still, but this is
hardly your immediate concern. Way more crucial to your bottom line--­
at any stage, really-is to learn to recognize the wagers of the unsavory
kind. In other words, rather than aiming to maximize the positive, more
essential is to minimize the negative. And it is an easier task as well.
Protect your account from unnecessary setbacks and chances are good
it will grow pleasantly over time as you grow along with it.
Let's check out some more examples.
89
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups- 图案突破
- Pattern Break
交易设置
Note: When trading off a signal bar that is sticking out, we do not
注意：当交易一个突出的信号柱时，我们不希望这个柱子过于高，或者产
want
this bar to be overly tall, or produce an entry too far away from
生一个距离破裂模式线过远的入场点。虽然没有什么是刻在石头上的，但在模
the broken pattern line. While nothing is ever carved in stone, always
式突破的情况下，始终更可取的条件是让止损位位于模式内部；这将允许回调
a
preferable condition in a pattern break scenario is to have the stop
测试破裂的障碍，而不会立即被震荡出局。
reside inside the pattern; this will allow for a pullback to test back the
broken barrier without immediately getting shaken out.
Countless charts in this guide will show that if you trade from build­
本指南中的无数图表将显示，如果你从积累中交易，绝对可以以10点的止损
up,
it is absolutely doable to come in with a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip
和20点的目标进场。当然，在你价格行为旅程的早期阶段，可能并不总是那么明
target. Surely, in the early stages of your price action journey, it may
显地分辨出一个无可争议的入场点和一个可以被认为稍显过早的入场点，但这
not
always be so evident to tell the difference between an indisputable
并不是你当前的主要关切。对你的底线来说，更重要的是——在任何阶段，实
entry and one that can be deemed a little premature still, but this is
际上——学习识别那些不良的赌注。换句话说，与其旨在最大化积极，更多的
hardly
your immediate concern. Way more crucial to your bottom line--­
是要最小化消极。而且这也是一项更容易的任务。保护你的账户免受不必要的
at
any stage, really-is to learn to recognize the wagers of the unsavory
挫折，机会是好的，它会随着你一起愉快地增长。
kind. In other words, rather than aiming to maximize the positive, more
essential is to minimize the negative. And it is an easier task as well.
Protect your account from unnecessary setbacks and chances are good
it will grow pleasantly over time as you grow along with it.
Let's check out some more examples.
让我们再看看一些例子。
89
Understanding Price Action
IFig 5.41
www.ProReal1ime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
'335
, .33
10 ProReaCTime.com
,3;00
14:00
12
,�oo
17:00
'8:00
Figure 5.4 The first half of this chart shows another triple-arch forma­
tion on top of a pattern line. The short below bar 1 0 represents a rather
straightforward pattern break venture, but there is an element involved
that deserves some extra attention; it is the issue of the adverse round
number magnet.
The three bullish turnaround bars ( 1 , 2 and 3) perfectly illustrate
the pull of a round number magnet. Bears may have had the best of
the action in terms of overall pressure, this had not kept the bulls from
putting in this triple-bottom variant. To understand the concept of the
adverse magnet, and the dangers involved, consider for a moment the
fate of a bear who had opened a short, say, somewhere around 13:30.
But check out also what happened to a bull who let himself get trapped
into longing the re-break of the round number, for example in bar 4 or
5. Both parties fell prey to the pull of the adverse magnet (adverse in
terms of their positions taken) .
The point is that we need to be extra cautious when aiming to trade
away from a round number level. It is quite different from trading to­
wards one. Especially in the early stages of a round number fight, the
price action can be very fickle and this can be a dangerous environment
to pick sides, even in line with dominance. Should these skirmishes
persist, at some point the price action will probably start to tighten up,
possibly showing more failures on one side than the other; that is a
good sign to start paying more attention again.
What were the giveaways that led to the short below bar 1 O? First
off, the chart was rather bearish on the whole (25ema sloping down,
90
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
5.41
I图
Fig5.4
www.ProReal1ime.com
欧元对美元
5 分钟
eur/usd 5-minute
'335
, .33
10 ProReaCTime.com
,3;00
14:00
12
,�oo
17:00
'8:00
Figure
5.4 The first half of this chart shows another triple-arch forma­
图5.4
该图的前半部分显示了另一个三重拱形结构位于一个模式线之上。第10条
tion on top of a pattern line. The short below bar 1 0 represents a rather
下方的短线代表了一种相当简单的模式突破尝试，但其中涉及的一个元素值得
straightforward pattern break venture, but there is an element involved
额外关注；那就是不利的整数关口磁力问题。
that deserves some extra attention; it is the issue of the adverse round
number magnet.
The three bullish turnaround bars ( 1 , 2 and 3) perfectly illustrate
三根看涨的反转线（1、2和3）完美地展示了整数关口磁力的吸引力。尽管
the pull of a round number magnet. Bears may have had the best of
空头在整体压力方面占据了上风，但这并没有阻止多头形成这个三重底部变体
the action in terms of overall pressure, this had not kept the bulls from
。为了理解不利磁力的概念及其所涉及的危险，想象一下某个空头在13:30左
putting
in this triple-bottom variant. To understand the concept of the
右开了一个空单的命运。但也要看看一个多头在第4或第5条中被困在重新突破
adverse magnet, and the dangers involved, consider for a moment the
整数关口时发生了什么。双方都成为了不利磁力的牺牲品（对他们所采取的头
fate of a bear who had opened a short, say, somewhere around 13:30.
寸而言是不利的）。
But check out also what happened to a bull who let himself get trapped
into longing the re-break of the round number, for example in bar 4 or
5. Both parties fell prey to the pull of the adverse magnet (adverse in
terms of their positions taken) .
The point is that we need to be extra cautious when aiming to trade
关键在于，当我们试图从一个整数水平进行交易时，我们需要格外小心。这
away from a round number level. It is quite different from trading to­
与朝着一个整数水平进行交易是截然不同的。尤其是在整数水平争夺的早期阶
wards one. Especially in the early stages of a round number fight, the
段，价格走势可能非常不稳定，这可能是一个危险的环境，即使是与主导趋势
price action can be very fickle and this can be a dangerous environment
一致，也很难选择立场。如果这些小规模的争斗持续下去，价格走势可能会开
to pick sides, even in line with dominance. Should these skirmishes
始收紧，可能会在一方显示出更多的失败；这是一个开始再次关注的好迹象。
persist, at some point the price action will probably start to tighten up,
possibly showing more failures on one side than the other; that is a
good sign to start paying more attention again.
What were the giveaways that led to the short below bar 1 O? First
在第10根柱子下方做空的线索是什么？首先，整体图表相当看跌（25ema向
off, the chart was rather bearish on the whole (25ema sloping down,
下倾斜，
90
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
most bars closing below it) , which meant there was work to be done for
the bulls should they want to change things in their favor. Very indica­
tive, therefore, were the four consecutive failures to retake possession of
1 .33 (4, 5, 7 and 9). Equally interesting was the triple-arch formation on
top of the pattern line, progressions 2-5-6, 6-7-8 and 8-9- 1 0 . The last
arch represented a squeeze variant, with bar 9 and 10 caught between
pattern line support and round number resistance. Thus, the bearish
close of bar 10 not only highlighted the failure of the latest bull attack
in bar 9, it also rounded a lower top in a triple-arch formation, while
setting up as a signal bar right on pattern line support.
From all this, it was fair to deduce that the magnetic pull of the
round number was wearing thin and that prices were about "ready" to
move away from it. But do note that it had taken several hours for this
to materialize.
Despite the perforation of the pattern line, bulls came out to defy
the break below bar 1 0 . Because of this counterpressure, our entry bar
(underneath the arrow) closed right back in the pattern line level; and
the next bar, too, managed to keep both bull and bear in suspense for
another five minutes ( 1 1 , a tiny inside bar) . Was it fear of the pending
US Open ( 1 5 :30) that kept the bears from aggressively playing the sell
side here? Reasons are never relevant. It is interesting to see, though,
that once bar 1 1 was taken out at the bottom, bearish reservations were
promptly cast aside and the market quickly tanked (inside bar break) .
It didn't take long for bears to find out that this victory was one of
the shorter variety. On the good side, it looks like our trade may have
reached its 20 pip target before the sudden bullish turnaround took
place; as much as this demonstrates the benefits of working with a set
target that isn't over the top, we cannot dismiss the element of luck in
this particular venture. It is important to grasp, though, that all trade
examples in this guide merely serve an educational purpose in context
of probability; an individual outcome by itself, good or bad, is essen­
tially irrelevant.
Although we will take up the particulars of unfavorable conditions
in more detail in Chapter 7, it will probably not surprise the reader that
the tiny bull-flag 13- 14 made for a poor continuation setup on the bull
91
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
most bars closing below it) , which meant there was work to be done for
大多数柱子收盘在其下方），这意味着如果多头想要改变局势，他们还有很多
the bulls should they want to change things in their favor. Very indica­
工作要做。因此，四次连续未能重新夺回1.33（4、5、7和9）非常具有指示性。
tive, therefore, were the four consecutive failures to retake possession of
同样有趣的是，模式线上的三重拱形结构，进程2-5-6、6-7-8和8-9-10。最后一个
1 .33 (4, 5, 7 and 9). Equally interesting was the triple-arch formation on
拱形代表了一种挤压变体，第9和第10根柱子被模式线支撑和整数阻力夹住。
top
of the pattern line, progressions 2-5-6, 6-7-8 and 8-9- 1 0 . The last
因此，第10根柱子的看跌收盘不仅突显了第9根柱子最新多头攻击的失败，还
arch represented a squeeze variant, with bar 9 and 10 caught between
在三重拱形结构中形成了一个较低的顶部，同时在模式线支撑上设置了一个信
pattern
号柱。 line support and round number resistance. Thus, the bearish
close of bar 10 not only highlighted the failure of the latest bull attack
in bar 9, it also rounded a lower top in a triple-arch formation, while
setting up as a signal bar right on pattern line support.
From all this, it was fair to deduce that the magnetic pull of the
从这一切来看，可以合理推断出整数的磁力正在减弱，价格即将"准备"脱离这个
round number was wearing thin and that prices were about "ready" to
整数。但请注意，这一切的形成花费了几个小时。
move away from it. But do note that it had taken several hours for this
to materialize.
Despite the perforation of the pattern line, bulls came out to defy
尽管模式线被突破，牛市仍然出来反抗第10根柱子下方的突破。由于这种反
向压力，我们的入场柱（箭头下方）又一次回到了模式线水平；而下一根柱子
the break below bar 1 0 . Because of this counterpressure, our entry bar
(underneath the arrow) closed right back in the pattern line level; and
也设法让多头和空头在接下来的五分钟内保持悬念（第11根柱子，一个微小的
the next bar, too, managed to keep both bull and bear in suspense for
内部柱）。是对即将到来的美国开盘（15:30）的恐惧让空头在这里不敢积极卖
another
five minutes ( 1 1 , a tiny inside bar) . Was it fear of the pending
出吗？原因并不重要。不过有趣的是，一旦第11根柱子在底部被突破，空头的顾
US
Open ( 1 5 :30) that kept the bears from aggressively playing the sell
虑便迅速被抛在脑后，市场迅速下跌（内部柱突破）。
side here? Reasons are never relevant. It is interesting to see, though,
that once bar 1 1 was taken out at the bottom, bearish reservations were
promptly cast aside and the market quickly tanked (inside bar break) .
It didn't take long for bears to find out that this victory was one of
熊很快就发现这场胜利是短暂的。从好的一面来看，我们的交易似乎在突
the
shorter variety. On the good side, it looks like our trade may have
然的牛市反转发生之前达到了20点的目标；尽管这展示了设定一个不过分的目
reached its 20 pip target before the sudden bullish turnaround took
标的好处，但我们不能忽视在这次冒险中运气的因素。重要的是要理解，本指
place;
as much as this demonstrates the benefits of working with a set
南中的所有交易示例仅用于教育目的，属于概率的上下文；单个结果，无论好
target that isn't over the top, we cannot dismiss the element of luck in
坏，基本上都是无关紧要的。
this particular venture. It is important to grasp, though, that all trade
examples in this guide merely serve an educational purpose in context
of probability; an individual outcome by itself, good or bad, is essen­
tially irrelevant.
Although we will take up the particulars of unfavorable conditions
尽管我们将在第七章详细讨论不利条件的细节，但读者可能不会感到惊讶
in
more detail in Chapter 7, it will probably not surprise the reader that
的是，微小的牛旗13-14在牛市中形成了一个糟糕的延续设置。
the tiny bull-flag 13- 14 made for a poor continuation setup on the bull
91
Understanding Price Action
side. After all that pulling and pushing in the round number earlier
on, it just wasn't very likely that bears would now give up on the area
without a good fight first. Not favoring the bull side either were the small
features of the flag in relation to the rather big pole ( 12- 13). As to the
flagpole itself, since this move had emerged quite "suddenly" from well
below the 25ema, the prospects for immediate bull-side continuation
were already not that great to begin with (no buildup to back up the
shift in dominance).
Obviously, not all charts comply with "technical logic". It takes little
experience in the market to understand that anything can and at some
point will happen and for this reason all suspicions regarding price
action are basically out of line. Very important, though, is not to get
carried away by the game plan of others when our own is being defied.
In other words, it is one thing to accept that a non-buildup turnaround
can indeed flip a chart around without much protest, it is quite another
to trade such a move for continuation. And certainly so when aiming
for 20 pip, which is a substantial move on the 5-minute. In this light,
it requires little contemplation to skip the long offer on the break of bar
14. We just don't trade that.
But how about two hours down the line. Considering the length of
progression 15-18, a much bigger bull-flag, the action clearly let on
that bulls had taken control of the chart. But there is something odd
about this flag, too, and that is the total absence of bearish aggres­
sion. There had been exactly one brief contrarian attempt to gun for
the round number magnet ( 15- 16), a plan that was quickly abandoned
at the first signs of support. From that moment on, bears had not even
tried to challenge the 25ema for over an hour, which then led to the
forming of the flag.
In a strong trending market, flat and lengthy flag progressions are
very common and we should definitely try to trade them for continua­
tion when given the chance; but how bullish was this chart, really? Or
to put it differently, if we decide to pass up on the offer above bar 14,
for a lack of technical backup, but accept the trade above bar 18, then
where exactly is it that the line between skipping and trading a break
is drawn?
92
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
side.
After all that pulling and pushing in the round number earlier
毕竟，在之前的整数关口上经历了那么多的拉锯战，熊现在不太可能在没有激
on, it just wasn't very likely that bears would now give up on the area
烈斗争的情况下放弃这个区域。小旗的特征也不利于牛市，因为它与相对较大
without a good fight first. Not favoring the bull side either were the small
的旗杆（12-13）相比显得微不足道。至于旗杆本身，由于这一波动是从25ema
features
of the flag in relation to the rather big pole ( 12- 13). As to the
下方突然出现的，因此立即的牛市延续前景本来就不太乐观（没有支撑这一主
flagpole itself, since this move had emerged quite "suddenly" from well
导地位转变的积累）。
below the 25ema, the prospects for immediate bull-side continuation
were already not that great to begin with (no buildup to back up the
shift in dominance).
Obviously, not all charts comply with "technical logic". It takes little
显然，并非所有图表都符合“技术逻辑”。在市场上稍有经验的人都能理解，
experience
in the market to understand that anything can and at some
任何事情都可能发生，并且在某些时候确实会发生，因此对价格行为的所有怀
疑基本上都是不合逻辑的。然而，重要的是不要被他人的游戏计划所左右，而
point will happen and for this reason all suspicions regarding price
忽视了我们自己的计划。换句话说，接受非1on的积累反转确实可以在没有太多
action are basically out of line. Very important, though, is not to get
抗议的情况下翻转图表，这是一回事，而为了延续而交易这样的走势则是另一
carried away by the game plan of others when our own is being defied.
回事。尤其是当目标是20点时，这在5分钟图上是一个相
In other words, it is one thing to accept that a non-buildup turnaround
当大的波动。在这种情况
can indeed flip a chart around without much protest, it is quite another
下，跳过第14根柱子突破的多头报价几乎不需要深思熟虑。我们就是不交易这
to trade such a move for continuation. And certainly so when aiming
个。
for 20 pip, which is a substantial move on the 5-minute. In this light,
it requires little contemplation to skip the long offer on the break of bar
14. We just don't trade that.
But how about two hours down the line. Considering the length of
但是，两个小时后呢？考虑到15-18的进程长度，一个更大的牛旗，行动明显
progression
15-18, a much bigger bull-flag, the action clearly let on
表明多头已经控制了图表。但这个旗帜也有些奇怪，那就是完全没有看空的攻击
that bulls had taken control of the chart. But there is something odd
。只有一次短暂的反向尝试试图冲击整数关口（15-16），这个计划在第一时间的
about this flag, too, and that is the total absence of bearish aggres­
支撑信号出现后迅速被放弃。从那时起，空头在一个多小时内甚至没有尝试挑战
sion.
There had been exactly one brief contrarian attempt to gun for
25ema，这导致了旗帜的形成。
the round number magnet ( 15- 16), a plan that was quickly abandoned
at the first signs of support. From that moment on, bears had not even
tried to challenge the 25ema for over an hour, which then led to the
forming of the flag.
In
a strong trending market, flat and lengthy flag progressions are
在一个强劲的趋势市场中，平坦而漫长的旗形走势是非常常见的，我们确实应
very common and we should definitely try to trade them for continua­
该在有机会时尝试交易它们以获取持续性；但这张图表到底有多看涨呢？或者换
tion when given the chance; but how bullish was this chart, really? Or
句话说，如果我们决定在第14根柱子上放弃这个机会，因为缺乏技术支持，但在
to put it differently, if we decide to pass up on the offer above bar 14,
第18根柱子上接受交易，那么跳过和交易突破之间的界限究竟在哪里呢？
for a lack of technical backup, but accept the trade above bar 18, then
where exactly is it that the line between skipping and trading a break
is drawn?
92
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
Alas, there can be no single answer to this puzzle. Since no chart
situation will ever show up exactly as before, each breakout event is
always a matter of personal interpretation. When confronted with a
"borderline" case, probably one of the hardest things to do is to trust
your eyes and trade (or skip) what you see-not what you think. This
chart provides a good example. Technically seen, the bearish pressure
had been fended off successfully by the bulls, but the chart itself still
wasn't very bullish. And for as long as that obnoxious round number
magnet had not been properly tested back, our fellow participants may
have cherished similar reservations regarding the upside potential. With
such reasoning in mind, it is only logical to at least have felt a pang of
discomfort when confronted with the break above bar 1 8 .
O n the other hand, if we look a t the facts, the 15- 1 8 progression cer­
tainly was a decent flag hanging from a decent pole ( 1 2 - 1 5) and it had
lasted long enough to prove the bulls dominant. Furthermore, the bars
in it had built up considerable tension prior to the upside break. In the
final stages of it, there had been two bear attempts to escape the dread­
ed squeeze, and both had instantly failed (false lows at 1 7 and 18). With
the pattern line sloping down, the 2 5ema sloping up, and prices caught
in-between, what else can a breakout trader do but pay his respects to
price action and thus fire long on the break of bar 1 8 .
But this i s definitely not my favorite setup. (Note also that the flag
break came about in the often slow and tricky US lunch-hour doldrums,
18:00-20:00 CET.)
93
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
Alas, there can be no single answer to this puzzle. Since no chart
可惜，这个难题没有单一的答案。由于没有任何图表情况会完全如之前出现
situation
will ever show up exactly as before, each breakout event is
，每个突破事件总是个人解读的问题。当面对一个“边缘”案例时，可能最难做的
always a matter of personal interpretation. When confronted with a
事情就是相信自己的眼睛，交易（或跳过）你所看到的，而不是你所想的。这张
"borderline" case, probably one of the hardest things to do is to trust
图表提供了一个很好的例子。从技术上看，空头压力已经被多头成功抵挡，但图
your eyes and trade (or skip) what you see-not what you think. This
表本身仍然不是很看涨。只要那个讨厌的整数磁铁没有得到适当的回测，我们的
chart provides a good example. Technically seen, the bearish pressure
同行可能对上涨潜力抱有类似的保留意见。考虑到这样的推理，当面对第18根柱
had been fended off successfully by the bulls, but the chart itself still
子的突破时，感到一丝不安是完全合乎逻辑的。
wasn't very bullish. And for as long as that obnoxious round number
magnet had not been properly tested back, our fellow participants may
have cherished similar reservations regarding the upside potential. With
such reasoning in mind, it is only logical to at least have felt a pang of
discomfort when confronted with the break above bar 1 8 .
O n the other hand, if we look a t the facts, the 15- 1 8 progression cer­
另一方面，如果我们看看事实，15-18的上升旗形无疑是一个悬挂在一个不
tainly was a decent flag hanging from a decent pole ( 1 2 - 1 5) and it had
错的杆子（12-15）上的不错的旗帜，并且它持续的时间足够长，以证明多头
lasted long enough to prove the bulls dominant. Furthermore, the bars
的主导地位。此外，在向上突破之前，它所形成的条形图积累了相当大的张力
in it had built up considerable tension prior to the upside break. In the
。在最后阶段，曾经有两次空头试图逃离可怕的挤压，但都立即失败了（在17
final stages of it, there had been two bear attempts to escape the dread­
和18的虚假低点）。随着模式线向下倾斜，25ema向上倾斜，价格被夹在中间
ed squeeze, and both had instantly failed (false lows at 1 7 and 18). With
，突破交易者还能做什么呢？只能向价格行为致敬，因此在第18根条形图突破
the
pattern line sloping down, the 2 5ema sloping up, and prices caught
时做多。
in-between, what else can a breakout trader do but pay his respects to
price action and thus fire long on the break of bar 1 8 .
But this i s definitely not my favorite setup. (Note also that the flag
但这绝对不是我最喜欢的设置。（请注意，旗形突破发生在通常缓慢而棘手
break
came about in the often slow
and tricky US lunch-hour doldrums,
的美国午餐时间的低迷期，18:00-20:00
CET。）
18:00-20:00 CET.)
93
Understanding Price Aaion
OProRe«Time.CQm
11:00
1200
13:00
14;00
W¥rN.ProRealTlme.com
eur/usd &.minute
15:00
16:00
IFig 5.51 1 .38
Figure 5.5 Charts like this do not leave much room for argument as to
which side of the market to shun. By the time prices hit the low of 1 ,
the environment had sent out a clear warning that bulls had no place
defying this tide for at least some hours to come. That is not to say that
profits cannot be made on the long side in a bear market, but it is no
easy chore to rake in 20 pip targets. And why swim against the tide
when you can surf along with it.
An excellent example of how to get yourself in trouble is depicted
by the false high at 2 . By forcing an upside break, bulls tried to defy
the implications of the bear-flag progression 1-2. Not a good idea in a
bear market, and right in the 25ema to boot. Bears didn't waste time
destroying the bullish dreams (3).
Countering the bull break at 2 is a well-known contrarian tactic that
we can refer to as trading a break for failure. It rightfully leans on the
premise that a break against dominance is sooner reprimanded than
respected. In Chapter 7 on Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for
Failure, we will have a closer look at how to take advantage of these
"foolish" breaks, but at this stage, our first priority is not to get trapped
in one ourselves.
But trend traders, too, need to pay attention to detail. False breaks
at the "poor" side of the market do not necessarily make for great wa­
gers at the other. Bar 3, for example, the bearish powerbar that had
crushed the bullish breakout, positioned itself as a terrible signal bar
for sell-side purposes. It was way too tall to set up a high-odds break
of its own, right in the lows of the market: even a "harmless" pullback
94
17:00
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
OProRe«Time.CQm
11:00
1200
13:00
14;00
W¥rN.ProRealTlme.com
eur/usd 5&.minute
欧元/美元
分钟
15:00
16:00
IFig
图5.55.51 1 .38
Figure
5.5 Charts like this do not leave much room for argument as to
图5.5
这样的图表几乎没有争论的余地，市场的哪一方应该被回避。当价格触及
which
side of the market to shun. By the time prices hit the low of 1 ,
1的低点时，环境已经发出了明确的警告，牛市在接下来的几个小时内没有反抗
the environment had sent out a clear warning that bulls had no place
潮流的余地。这并不是说在熊市中无法获得利润，但要在熊市中实现20点的目
defying this tide for at least some hours to come. That is not to say that
标并不是一件容易的事。既然可以顺势而为，何必逆流而上呢。
profits cannot be made on the long side in a bear market, but it is no
easy chore to rake in 20 pip targets. And why swim against the tide
when you can surf along with it.
An excellent example of how to get yourself in trouble is depicted
一个很好的例子说明了如何让自己陷入麻烦，正如在2处的虚假高点所示。
by
the false high at 2 . By forcing an upside break, bulls tried to defy
牛市试图通过强行突破向上，来违抗熊旗形态1-2的暗示。在熊市中，这不是一
the implications of the bear-flag progression 1-2. Not a good idea in a
个好主意，而且恰好在25ema附近。熊市没有浪费时间摧毁这些看涨的梦想（3
bear
）。 market, and right in the 25ema to boot. Bears didn't waste time
destroying the bullish dreams (3).
Countering the bull break at 2 is a well-known contrarian tactic that
反击2处的牛市突破是一种众所周知的逆向交易策略，我们可以称之为交易失
we
can refer to as trading a break for failure. It rightfully leans on the
败的突破。它合理地依赖于这样一个前提：反向突破往往比受到尊重更快受到惩
premise that a break against dominance is sooner reprimanded than
罚。在第7章关于跳过交易和交易失败突破中，我们将更详细地探讨如何利用这些“
respected.
In Chapter 7 on Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for
愚蠢”的突破，但在这个阶段，我们的首要任务是不要被其中一个困住。
Failure, we will have a closer look at how to take advantage of these
"foolish" breaks, but at this stage, our first priority is not to get trapped
in one ourselves.
But trend traders, too, need to pay attention to detail. False breaks
但趋势交易者也需要关注细节。市场“弱”侧的虚假突破并不一定意味着在另
at
the "poor" side of the market do not necessarily make for great wa­
一侧进行伟大的投注。例如，第3根柱子，这根压制了看涨突破的看跌强势柱，
gers at the other. Bar 3, for example, the bearish powerbar that had
作为卖方信号柱的位置非常糟糕。它太高，无法设置自己的高概率突破，正好
crushed the bullish breakout, positioned itself as a terrible signal bar
位于市场的低点：即使是一个“无害”的回调，
for sell-side purposes. It was way too tall to set up a high-odds break
of its own, right in the lows of the market: even a "harmless" pullback
94
17:00
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break
to the 25ema magnet (very common) would already have taken out our
stop.
This shows us also that even when the market has one-way pressure
written all over it, it still takes careful planning to trade along the path
of least resistance. Looking for a continuation break in the low of a bear
rally (or in the high of a bull rally) is seldom a smart idea. On balance,
the best follow-through potential is found either in the turn of a sub­
stantial pullback, or on the break of a lengthy sideways range ( 1 - 1 1 )
When anticipating a break o f a bearish pattern, always handy is to
run a pattern line beneath the lows of most relevance. In this chart,
the false bear spike in bar 4 (bottoming tail) is ignored in favor of later
touches. And what a beautiful line it was. In pattern break tactics, these
indisputable boundaries are always a big plus because they leave virtu­
ally no room for debate as to when they are broken.
Of equal beauty were the numerous arches on top of it. The three
most prominent were progressions 1 -2-4, 4-5-6 and 6 through 1 1 . In
its entirety, this was a giant bear-flag hanging from the tall pole of the
UK morning bear rally.
If we zoom in on the last arch, we can see that the 6- 1 1 progression
contained a number of smaller arches itself. And notice also how all of
them gradually went down in size until things finally worked up to a
boiling point in the apex of the pattern. With the bars caught between
the pattern line on one side and the 25ema on the other, the last mini
arch was a textbook squeeze. Do we need more giveaways as to the bull­
ish predicament?
But there were more clues to be found. Earlier on, starting with the
false high at 5 , bulls had failed to reach the round number magnet
and then kept on failing at 7, 8, 9 and 1 0 . Such a series of lower tops
will not likely have boosted the confidence of bullish sideliners anytime
soon, nor that of bulls already in the market. The last failure, the false
high at 10, was particularly interesting, since it was a failed attempt to
break away from a bearish squeeze. By now we have already seen plenty
of evidence that if such an attempt fails, it is often a harbinger of utter
demoralization.
Bar 1 1 , a tiny inside bar with its false high neighbor, filled up the
95
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break
交易设置
- 图案突破
到
磁铁（非常常见）已经会让我们的止损被触发。
to 25ema
the 25ema
magnet (very common) would already have taken out our
stop.
这也向我们展示，即使市场明显有单向压力，交易沿着最小阻力路径仍然
This shows us also that even when the market has one-way pressure
written all over it, it still takes careful planning to trade along the path
需要仔细规划。在熊市反弹的低点（或牛市反弹的高点）寻找持续突破通常不
of
least resistance. Looking for a continuation break in the low of a bear
是一个明智的选择。总体而言，最佳的跟进潜力要么在大幅回调的转折点，要
rally (or in the high of a bull rally) is seldom a smart idea. On balance,
么在漫长的横盘区间的突破时找到（1-11）
the best follow-through potential is found either in the turn of a sub­
stantial pullback, or on the break of a lengthy sideways range ( 1 - 1 1 )
When anticipating a break o f a bearish pattern, always handy is to
在预期突破看跌模式时，通常需要在最相关的低点下方画一条模式线。在这
run a pattern line
beneath the lows of most relevance. In this chart,
张图中，忽略了第
4 根柱子的假熊尖（底部尾巴），而更关注后来的触碰。而
the false bear spike in bar 4 (bottoming tail) is ignored in favor of later
这条线真是美丽。在模式突破策略中，这些不容争辩的边界总是一个很大的优
touches. And what a beautiful line it was. In pattern break tactics, these
势，因为它们几乎没有留下任何关于何时被突破的争论空间。
indisputable boundaries are always a big plus because they leave virtu­
ally no room for debate as to when they are broken.
Of equal beauty were the numerous arches on top of it. The three
同样美丽的是它顶部的众多拱门。其中最突出的三个是1-2-4、4-5-6和6到11
most prominent were progressions 1 -2-4, 4-5-6 and 6 through 1 1 . In
的进程。整体来看，这是一面巨大的熊旗，悬挂在英国早晨熊市反弹的高杆上
its
。 entirety, this was a giant bear-flag hanging from the tall pole of the
UK morning bear rally.
If we zoom in on the last arch, we can see that the 6- 1 1 progression
如果我们放大最后一个拱门，可以看到6-11的进程本身包含了许多较小的拱门
contained
a number of smaller arches itself. And notice also how all of
。还要注意，所有这些拱门的尺寸逐渐减小，直到在图案的顶点达到了沸点。随
them
gradually went down in size until things finally worked up to a
着条形图被图案线和25ema夹在中间，最后一个小拱门是教科书式的挤压。我们
boiling
point in the apex of the pattern. With the bars caught between
还需要更多的线索来说明看涨的困境吗？
the pattern line on one side and the 25ema on the other, the last mini
arch was a textbook squeeze. Do we need more giveaways as to the bull­
ish predicament?
But
there were more clues to be found. Earlier on, starting with the
但还有更多线索可以发现。早些时候，从5的虚假高点开始，牛市未能达到圆
false
high
at 5 , bulls had failed to reach the round number magnet
形数字的磁力，然后在7、8、9和10处不断失败。这一系列的低顶不太可能在短时
and
then kept on failing at 7, 8, 9 and 1 0 . Such a series of lower tops
间内提升看涨观望者的信心，也不会提升已经在市场中的牛市的信心。最后的失
will not likely have boosted the confidence of bullish sideliners anytime
败，即10的虚假高点，尤其有趣，因为这是一次未能突破熊市挤压的尝试。到现
soon, nor that of bulls already in the market. The last failure, the false
在为止，我们已经看到很多证据表明，如果这样的尝试失败，往往预示着彻底的
high
at 10, was particularly interesting, since it was a failed attempt to
士气低落。
break away from a bearish squeeze. By now we have already seen plenty
of evidence that if such an attempt fails, it is often a harbinger of utter
demoralization.
Bar
1 1 , a tiny inside bar with its false high neighbor, filled up the
Bar 11，一个小型内部条形图，其虚高邻居，填补了
95
Understanding Price Action
remammg space between the pattern line and the moving average.
Something had to give.
Looking closely, we can see that the actual entry on the short below
bar 1 1 may not literally have broken the pattern line yet; in fact, the
entry was right on it. However, with the break setting up so well and
considering the "ripeness" of the bear-flag, I truly believe there is no
reason to postpone entry on a short like this and run the risk of missing
the collapse. Of course, since nothing is ever set in stone, an alterna­
tive tactic could be to wait for an extra pip or so to see the pattern line
broken first, and then fire short. But it would have been overly prudent,
if not a mistake, to have waited for another bar to fatten up the squeeze.
In an earlier discussion concerning Figure 5.3, the latter tactic was sug­
gested (waiting for bar 8), simply because the situation asked for some
more buildup to set up the trade properly. Not so in the chart above.
As to the low of our signal bar ( 1 1 ) , pleasant also was to see it match
up with the low of bar 10, allowing this short to take off from a double­
bar break. Evidently, a double-bar setup shows more tension than a
single-bar setup, since the low or high in question holds up not for
five but for ten minutes. Any extra tension preceding a breakout will
sooner help follow-through along than obstruct it. Furthermore, to take
out our stop on this short, bulls had to crack the squeeze progression
on the upside again. In the light of all their earlier failures, that would
have demanded quite some bravery to pull off. All this rendered prices
highly vulnerable to bearish aggression. To top it off, let us not forget
to mention the favorable magnet of the 1 .37 round number, about 25
pip below.
I hope that most of what we have addressed so far regarding the
regular pattern break setup has been quite easy to follow and that it
radiates a certain technical logic. The main thing to take away from
these examples is to understand the importance of sufficient buildup,
partiCUlarly when trading breaks with tight stops.
96
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
remammg space between the pattern line and the moving average.
模式线与移动平均线之间的剩余空间。总有一些事情会发生变化。
Something had to give.
Looking closely, we can see that the actual entry on
the short below
仔细观察，我们可以看到，实际上在短线下方的条形图
11 的入场可能并没
bar 1 1 may not literally have broken the pattern line yet; in fact, the
有字面上突破模式线；事实上，入场正好在其上。然而，考虑到突破的设置如
entry was right on it. However, with the break setting up so well and
此良好，以及“熊旗”的“成熟度”，我真的相信没有理由推迟这样的短线入场，
considering the "ripeness" of the bear-flag, I truly believe there is no
冒着错过崩溃的风险。当然，由于没有什么是绝对的，另一种策略可能是等待
reason to postpone entry on a short like this and run the risk of missing
额外的点数，看看模式线是否先被突破，然后再进行短线交易。但如果再等一
the collapse. Of course, since nothing is ever set in stone, an alterna­
个条形图来加厚挤压，那将是过于谨慎，甚至是一个错误。在之前关于图
5的
tive
tactic could be to wait for an extra
pip or so to see the pattern line
讨论中，建议了后者策略（等待条形图
8），仅仅是因为情况要求更多的积累
broken first, and then fire short. But it would have been overly prudent,
来正确设置交易。而在上面的图表中并非如此。
if not a mistake, to have waited for another bar to fatten up the squeeze.
In an earlier discussion concerning Figure 5.3, the latter tactic was sug­
gested (waiting for bar 8), simply because the situation asked for some
more buildup to set up the trade properly. Not so in the chart above.
As to the low of our signal bar ( 1 1 ) , pleasant also was to see it match
关于我们信号条的低点（11），看到它与第10条的低点相匹配也令人愉快，
up with the low of bar 10, allowing this short to take off from a double­
这使得这个空头能够从双条突破中起飞。显然，双条设置显示出的张力比单条设
bar break. Evidently, a double-bar setup shows more tension than a
置更大，因为相关的低点或高点不仅维持了五分钟，而是维持了十分钟。任何
single-bar
setup, since the low or high in question holds up not for
额外的张力在突破之前，都会更快地帮助跟随，而不是阻碍它。此外，要让我们
five but for ten minutes. Any extra tension preceding a breakout will
的止损被触发，牛市必须再次打破上行的挤压进程。考虑到他们之前的所有失败
sooner help follow-through along than obstruct it. Furthermore, to take
，这需要相当大的勇气才能做到。所有这些使得价格对看跌的攻击高度脆弱。更
out our stop on this short, bulls had to crack the squeeze progression
不用说，1.37这个整数的有利吸引力，约在25个点以下。
on the upside again. In the light of all their earlier failures, that would
have demanded quite some bravery to pull off. All this rendered prices
highly vulnerable to bearish aggression. To top it off, let us not forget
to mention the favorable magnet of the 1 .37 round number, about 25
pip below.
I hope that most of what we have addressed so far regarding the
我希望到目前为止我们所讨论的关于常规模式突破设置的大部分内容都很容
regular pattern break setup has been quite easy to follow and that it
易理解，并且它散发出某种技术逻辑。最重要的是要从这些例子中理解足够的
radiates
a certain technical logic. The main thing to take away from
积累的重要性，特别是在用紧止损进行突破交易时。
these examples is to understand the importance of sufficient buildup,
partiCUlarly when trading breaks with tight stops.
96
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Pullback
Pattern Break Pullback
While a regular pattern break setup is certainly not a rarity to come
across, plenty of breakouts take place without offering an acceptable
entry on first go. Sometimes there is just too little buildup prior to per­
foration; at other times the pattern line is debatable, the signal bar
uncomfortable, or maybe the price action too feverish or lackluster.
Whatever the reason, in many an instance we have no choice but to step
away from the initial break. Yet this doesn't necessarily render the event
totally untradable. By keeping close track of the post-breakout action,
we may still be offered a chance to hop on board in second instance.
Two such situations deserve our full attention. The first is when
prices, after breaking out, start to cling around the broken barrier, not
knowing whether to follow through or prove the break false; obviously,
this is an indication of defender's resilience, but at the same time it
shows that the attacking parties are not so easily demoralized either; for
as long as this fight persists (buildup), there is still a reasonable chance
for the market to break away in line with the earlier break.
The other situation of interest is when prices do follow through on
the original breakout, but then pull back to challenge the area of the
broken barrier.
Either situation knows many subtle variants and all could set up a
trade in line with the original break. Our task, therefore, is to see if we
can locate within the post-breakout action a valid signal bar from which
break to take position. We can refer to this entry technique as trading
the pattern break pullback setup.
97
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Pullback
交易设置
- 模式突破回调
模式突破回调
Pattern Break Pullback
While a regular pattern break setup is certainly not a rarity to come
虽然常规的模式突破设置确实并不罕见，但许多突破发生时并没有在第一次尝
across, plenty of breakouts take place without offering an acceptable
试中提供可接受的入场机会。有时在穿透之前的积累太少；其他时候，模式线
entry
on first go. Sometimes there is just too little buildup prior to per­
存在争议，信号柱不舒服，或者价格走势过于急躁或乏味。无论原因如何，在
foration; at other times the pattern line is debatable, the signal bar
许多情况下，我们别无选择，只能远离初始突破。然而，这并不一定使事件完
uncomfortable,
or maybe the price action too feverish or lackluster.
全不可交易。通过密切关注突破后的走势，我们仍然可能会获得在第二次机会
Whatever the reason, in many an instance we have no choice but to step
中上车的机会。
away from the initial break. Yet this doesn't necessarily render the event
totally untradable. By keeping close track of the post-breakout action,
we may still be offered a chance to hop on board in second instance.
Two
such situations deserve our full attention. The first is when
这两种情况都值得我们充分关注。第一种情况是价格在突破后开始徘徊在突破
prices,
after breaking out, start to cling around the broken barrier, not
的障碍附近，不知道是继续上涨还是证明突破是虚假的；显然，这表明了防守方
knowing
whether to follow through or prove the break false; obviously,
的韧性，但同时也显示出进攻方并不那么容易气馁；只要这种斗争持续（积累）
this is an indication of defender's resilience, but at the same time it
，市场仍然有合理的机会沿着早期的突破方向突破。
shows that the attacking parties are not so easily demoralized either; for
as long as this fight persists (buildup), there is still a reasonable chance
for the market to break away in line with the earlier break.
The
other situation of interest is when prices do follow through on
另一种值得关注的情况是价格确实在原始突破后继续上涨，但随后回落以挑战突破
the original breakout, but then pull back to challenge the area of the
障碍的区域。
broken barrier.
Either
situation knows many subtle variants and all could set up a
这两种情况都有许多微妙的变体，都可以为我们提供一个与原始突破一致的
trade
in line with the original break. Our task, therefore, is to see if we
交易机会。因此，我们的任务是查看在突破后的行动中是否可以找到一个有效
can
locate within the post-breakout action a valid signal bar from which
的信号条，从中进行突破交易。我们可以将这种入场技巧称为交易模式突破回
break
to take position. We can refer to this entry technique as trading
调设置。
the pattern break pullback setup.
97
Understanding Price Action
WWtN.ProReaffime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
1.385
2
OProRetiTIne.com
09:00
1noo
11:00
12:00
13;00
14:00
Figure 5.6 The short below bar 9 completes the total concept of a skipped
break, a pullback, a ceiling test and a second-instance entry based on
the pattern break pullback setup. Before we examine the details of the
trade, it may be interesting to briefly compare this chart with the previ­
ous one, Figure 5 . 5 . Despite the striking similarities on the whole, the
differences between a tradable and non-tradable break (in first instance)
couldn't be better illustrated. In the foregoing chart, prior to breaking
down, prices had built up tension on top of the pattern line and this
allowed us to play the break upon occurrence. In our current chart,
prices broke away from a cluster formation that resided welL away from
the pattern boundary (progression 6-7, middle-part of an M-pattern).
Due to the "sudden" collapse, the break in bar 8 did not allow for a regu­
lar pattern break entry. But our chances to participate were not lost.
The price action on top of the pattern line shows the unmistakable
features of a bear-flag formation: a slightly tilted progression hanging
sideways from a strong bear pole ( 1 -2). In such a pattern, a series of
ascending lows may give off an impression of demand. But the buy­
er beware; if the trending pole from which the flag is hanging is any
good, we can rest assured that bears won't sit idly by and watch their
dominance undone. A popular ploy is to wait for the bulls to run out of
breath in the higher region of the flag and then unleash upon them a
quick wave of selling. Fine examples of this contrarian practice can be
spotted at 3 and 5 (false highs) .
There is a widespread notion among technical traders, and not with­
out merit, that the extent of follow-through on a flag breakout often
98
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
WWtN.ProReaffime.com
欧元/美元
eur/usd5 分钟
5-minute
图 5.6
1.385
10 英尺
2
OProRetiTIne.com
09:00
1noo
11:00
12:00
13;00
14:00
Figure
5.6 The short below bar 9 completes the total concept of a skipped
图5.6
下方的短线在第9根柱子处完成了跳过突破、回调、天花板测试和基于模
break, a pullback, a ceiling test and a second-instance entry based on
式突破回调设置的第二次入场的总概念。在我们详细审视这笔交易之前，简要
the pattern break pullback setup. Before we examine the details of the
比较一下这张图与前一张图（图5.5）可能会很有趣。尽管整体上有着显著的相
trade, it may be interesting to briefly compare this chart with the previ­
似之处，但可交易和不可交易突破（在第一次实例中）之间的差异再好不过地
ous
one, Figure 5 . 5 . Despite the striking similarities on the whole, the
得到了说明。在前面的图表中，在突破之前，价格在模式线的顶部积累了张力
differences
between a tradable and non-tradable break (in first instance)
，这使我们能够在突破发生时进行交易。而在我们当前的图表中，价格从一个
couldn't be better illustrated. In the foregoing chart, prior to breaking
远离模式边界的聚集形态中突破（进程6-7，M形态的中间部分）。由于第8根柱
down, prices had built up tension on top of the pattern line and this
子的“突然”崩溃，突破并未允许进行常规的模式突破入场。但我们参与的机会
allowed us to play the break upon occurrence. In our current chart,
并未丧失。
prices broke away from a cluster formation that resided welL away from
the pattern boundary (progression 6-7, middle-part of an M-pattern).
Due to the "sudden" collapse, the break in bar 8 did not allow for a regu­
lar pattern break entry. But our chances to participate were not lost.
The
price action on top of the pattern line shows the unmistakable
在形态线上方的价格走势显示出明显的熊旗形态特征：一个略微倾斜的上
features of a bear-flag formation: a slightly tilted progression hanging
升趋势，悬挂在一个强劲的下跌旗杆（1-2）上。在这种形态中，一系列上升
sideways from a strong bear pole ( 1 -2). In such a pattern, a series of
的低点可能会给人一种需求旺盛的印象。但买家要当心；如果旗帜悬挂的下跌
ascending lows may give off an impression of demand. But the buy­
旗杆足够好，我们可以确信，空头不会袖手旁观，眼睁睁地看着他们的优势被
er
beware; if the trending pole from which the flag is hanging is any
推翻。一个常见的策略是等待多头在旗帜的较高区域耗尽力气，然后向他们发
good, we can rest assured that bears won't sit idly by and watch their
起一波快速抛售。在3和5处（假高点）可以发现这种逆向操作的绝佳例子。
dominance undone. A popular ploy is to wait for the bulls to run out of
breath in the higher region of the flag and then unleash upon them a
quick wave of selling. Fine examples of this contrarian practice can be
spotted at 3 and 5 (false highs) .
There
is a widespread notion among technical traders, and not with­
技术交易员中普遍存在一种观点，而且并非没有道理，即旗形突破后的延续
out merit, that the extent of follow-through on a flag breakout often
程度通常
98
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Pullback
mimics the length of the pole from which the flag is hanging. We can
refer to this as the pole-flag-swing principle (a lightning symbol, if you
wish). Whether or not one fully abides by this premise, the break of a
decent flag pattern is always worthy of attention. So let's have a look at
how this one came about.
Ironically, just prior to the event, after four hours of pushing and
pulling within the flag, bulls had finally managed to stay on top of the
25ema for a number of consecutive bars (6-7), but then the tables sud­
denly turned (bar 8).
Note also that it was a false high in bar 7 that set the stage for the
flag breakout at the other end. As bears jumped in and bulls jumped
out, powerbar 8 completed the right leg of an M-pattern reversal (45-6-7 -8). With the 6-7 middle-part hanging ominously above, sideline
bulls no longer bothered to defend the pattern line as done on previous
touches. Prices sank straight through.
This leaves us to examine the details of the pattern break pullback
entry below bar 9 . For starters, pullback 8-9 had retraced about 50/60
percent of the breakout swing 7-8. In doing so, bar 9 had not only put
in a triple with the pattern line extension, the round number and the
25ema, the high of this bar had put in a ceiling test with the lows of the
6-7 block. Notice also that even though bar 9 had bullishly perforated
the pattern line from below, its close was back outside of the pattern,
and very bearish to boot. This clearly let on that both bull and bear had
cleverly made use of the 8-9 bounce, the former to sell out, the latter to
sell in.
In technical terms, bar 9 set up a valid second-instance short, but
there is one little issue here that almost spoilt the fun. This signal bar
stood relatively tall, which meant that the entry was offered quite a few
pip away from a potential retest of the adverse round number magnet.
That can be tricky for our stop. However, let us not discard any such
offer too easily. When the technical picture speaks highly in favor of im­
mediate continuation, as it did above, it is perhaps a risk worth taking
(a personal call, of course). After all, should only one out of three such
wagers follow through as anticipated, this would still yield a neutral
result on balance (when applying a risk/reward ratio of 1 : 2).Needless
99
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups - 模式突破回调
Pattern Break Pullback
交易设置
mimics the length of the pole from which the flag is hanging. We can
模仿旗帜悬挂的旗杆的长度。我们可以将其称为旗杆-旗帜-摆动原则（如果你愿意
refer
to this as the pole-flag-swing principle (a lightning symbol, if you
，可以把它看作一个闪电符号）。无论是否完全遵守这一前提，突破一个像样的
wish). Whether or not one fully abides by this premise, the break of a
旗形形态总是值得关注的。所以让我们来看看这个形态是如何形成的。
decent flag pattern is always worthy of attention. So let's have a look at
how this one came about.
Ironically, just prior to the event, after four hours of pushing and
具有讽刺意味的是，在事件发生之前，经过四个小时的推拉，牛市最终设法
pulling
within the flag, bulls had finally managed to stay on top of the
在25ema上方维持了多个连续的K线（6-7），但随后局势突然逆转（第8根K线）。
25ema for a number of consecutive bars (6-7), but then the tables sud­
denly turned (bar 8).
Note also that it was a false high in bar 7 that set the stage for the
还要注意的是，第7根K线的虚假高点为另一端的旗形突破奠定了基础。当
flag breakout at the other end. As bears jumped in and bulls jumped
空头进场而多头退场时，第8根强势K线完成了M形反转的右腿（4-5-6-7-8）。由
out, powerbar 8 completed the right leg of an M-pattern reversal (4于6-7的中间部分悬而未决，场外的多头不再像之前那样捍卫模式线。价格直
5-6-7 -8). With the 6-7 middle-part hanging ominously above, sideline
接跌破。
bulls no longer bothered to defend the pattern line as done on previous
touches. Prices sank straight through.
This
leaves us to examine the details of the pattern break pullback
这使我们需要检查第9根K线下方的模式突破回调入场的细节。首先，回调8-9
entry below bar 9 . For starters, pullback 8-9 had retraced about 50/60
大约回撤了突破波段7-8的50/60%。在此过程中，第9根K线不仅在模式线延伸处形
percent
of the breakout swing 7-8. In doing so, bar 9 had not only put
成了一个三重顶，且在整数关口和25ema处形成了一个天花板测试，且该K线的高
in
a triple with the pattern line extension, the round number and the
点与6-7区间的低点形成了对比。还要注意，尽管第9根K线从下方强势突破了模式
25ema, the high of this bar had put in a ceiling test with the lows of the
线，但其收盘价却回到了模式外，非常看跌。这清楚地表明，多头和空头巧妙地
6-7 block. Notice also that even though bar 9 had bullishly perforated
利用了8-9的反弹，前者选择卖出，后者则选择进场。
the pattern line from below, its close was back outside of the pattern,
and very bearish to boot. This clearly let on that both bull and bear had
cleverly made use of the 8-9 bounce, the former to sell out, the latter to
sell in.
In technical terms, bar 9 set up a valid second-instance short, but
从技术角度来看，第9条柱子设立了一个有效的第二次短线，但这里有一个
there is one little issue here that almost spoilt the fun. This signal bar
小问题几乎破坏了乐趣。这根信号柱相对较高，这意味着入场点距离潜在的反
stood relatively tall, which meant that the entry was offered quite a few
弹不利的整数关口有相当多的点数。这对我们的止损可能会很棘手。然而，我
pip
away from a potential retest of the adverse round number magnet.
们不应轻易放弃任何这样的机会。当技术图景高度支持立即继续时，正如上面
That can be tricky for our stop. However, let us not discard any such
所示，这或许是一个值得冒险的选择（当然，这是个人的判断）。毕竟，如果
offer too easily. When the technical picture speaks highly in favor of im­
这样的赌注中只有三分之一能够如预期那样顺利进行，这在应用1:2的风险/收
mediate continuation, as it did above, it is perhaps a risk worth taking
益比时，仍然会在整体上产生中性结果。
(a personal call, of course). After all, should only one out of three such
wagers follow through as anticipated, this would still yield a neutral
result on balance (when applying a risk/reward ratio of 1 : 2).Needless
99
Understanding Price Aaion
to mention, such reasoning is defensible only when the odds for follow­
through are indeed excellent at the point of entry.
Note: At a later stage, you may want to spice up your range of entry
techniques with a little more aggression. If so, consider the short below
bar 7, an M-pattern middle-part break. For a bullish example, check
the break of bar 1 0 in Figure 3 . 2 in Chapter 3. These sharper entries
can be very effective, but are deemed more aggressive because they are
taken in front of a bigger pattern breakout. Apply with care.
I Fig 5.71
_.ProRealTIme.com
03:00
eur/usd 5-minute
04:00
1 .375
06:00
07:00
00:00
Figure 5.7 A little after 07:00, prices had broken out of a thin Asian
range in what can be considered a tease break variant (T) . Bulls had
shown little interest, though, in countering this break, or in defending
the round number a little below it. This had prices slowly trailing south
into the EU Open at 08:00.
The first few bars in the Open favored the bull side (2-3), but with the
box extension and the 2 5ema blocking the path, bears had little trouble
curbing the incoming demand. Note the five consecutive topping tails
in pullback 2-3.
It is very common for a smaller pattern to form itself outside of a
broken bigger pattern. If it is a very fat, blocky cluster of bars that
rebelliously hangs below a broken box, this usually indicates strong re­
sistance to the bearish implications of the breakout. Much less so when
this smaller pattern is a relatively gentle, angular pullback. In fact, we
could look upon progression 2-3 as a bear-flag hanging from the pole
1 -2 (a continuation pattern in technical terms).
100
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
to mention, such reasoning is defensible only when the odds for follow­
更不用说，这种推理只有在入场时跟进的概率确实很高时才是合理的。
through are indeed excellent at the point of entry.
Note: At a later stage, you may want to spice up your range of entry
注意：在后期，您可能希望通过更具攻击性的方式来丰富您的入场技巧。如
techniques
with a little more aggression. If so, consider the short below
果是这样，请考虑下面的短线下方7，这是一个M形态中部突破的例子。对于一
bar 7, an M-pattern middle-part break. For a bullish example, check
个看涨的例子，请查看第3章图3.2中的第10根柱子的突破。这些更尖锐的入场方
the break of bar 1 0 in Figure 3 . 2 in Chapter 3. These sharper entries
式可能非常有效，但被认为更具攻击性，因为它们是在更大模式突破前进行的。
can
be very effective, but are deemed more aggressive because they are
请谨慎使用。
taken in front of a bigger pattern breakout. Apply with care.
I图5.7
Fig 5.71
03:00
_.ProRealTIme.com
欧元/美元
5 分钟
eur/usd 5-minute
04:00
1 .375
06:00
07:00
00:00
Figure
5.7 A little after 07:00, prices had broken out of a thin Asian
图5.7
在07:00稍后，价格突破了一个薄弱的亚洲区间，这可以被视为一种诱导突
range in what can be considered a tease break variant (T) . Bulls had
破变体（T）。然而，牛市对反击这一突破或捍卫稍低于它的整数关口表现出很
shown little interest, though, in countering this break, or in defending
少的兴趣。这使得价格在08:00的欧盟开盘时缓慢下滑。
the round number a little below it. This had prices slowly trailing south
into the EU Open at 08:00.
The first few bars in the Open favored the bull side (2-3), but with the
开盘的前几根柱子偏向于牛市（2-3），但由于箱体扩展和25ema阻挡了路径
box extension and the 2 5ema blocking the path, bears had little trouble
，熊市在抑制涌入需求方面没有遇到太大困难。请注意在回调2-3中连续五根顶
curbing the incoming demand. Note the five consecutive topping tails
部尾巴。
in pullback 2-3.
It is very common for a smaller pattern to form itself outside of a
在一个破裂的大模式之外，形成一个较小的模式是非常常见的。如果它是一
broken bigger pattern. If it is a very fat, blocky cluster of bars that
个非常粗胖、块状的柱状图集群，顽固地悬挂在一个破裂的箱体下方，这通常
rebelliously
hangs below a broken box, this usually indicates strong re­
表明对突破的看跌含义有强烈的抵抗。相对而言，当这个较小的模式是一个相
sistance to the bearish implications of the breakout. Much less so when
对温和、角度较小的回调时，情况就大不相同。实际上，我们可以将进程2-3视
this smaller pattern is a relatively gentle, angular pullback. In fact, we
为悬挂在杆1-2上的熊旗（在技术术语中称为延续模式）。
could look upon progression 2-3 as a bear-flag hanging from the pole
1 -2 (a continuation pattern in technical terms).
100
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Pullback
Within its 5-minute span, bar 3 had bullishly penetrated the box
barrier from below, only to collapse and finish as a bearish doji away
from the box. This already had all the makings of a pattern break pull­
back setup. But before any bar deserves signal bar status, we should
always check first whether the surrounding conditions are supportive
of the venture.
What were the hints and clues available? How about: (a) pullback
2-3 had retraced about 50 percent of breakout swing 1-2; (b) bar 3 set
up as a reversal doji in the top of a pullback; (c) the bar had perforated
the 25ema but closed below it; (d) the break below bar 3 allowed for an
entry favorably close to the box barrier extension and the 25ema (no
adverse magnets); (e) the entry on this short pleasantly coincided with
the break of a pullback line.
Against all this, bulls had little to bring to the table except maybe for
a thin sliver of hope that the round number of 1 .37 would still hold up.
From all that was offered, though, it was fair to deduce that the odds
favored the short side way more than the buy side. Hence the pattern
break pullback short below bar 3 .
Note: I n a pattern break pullback situation, it i s highly preferable
for the signal bar to set up not only in the broken barrier area but in
the 25ema as well (bar 3); many times, both coincide. Should we spot
a turnaround bar in a pUllback before the average is reached, in most
cases it will be wise to wait for a stronger setup. Chances are, the cor­
rection has not run its full course yet.
After taking the short to target in a matter of just two bars, prices
reversed with similar prowess (4-5). Upon arrival in the box barrier ex­
tension, resistance kicked in once again, as is evident by the bearish
close of bar 5. This basically set up another signal bar, but there is a
dissonant in this picture that was not present in the situation on the
left. It is the powerful V-shape response of pullback 4-5.
Although we will take up the particulars in more detail in our section
on the pullback reversal later in this chapter, the attentive reader may
have noticed that next to the length of the pullback, the strength of it is
also an important element to monitor. As a rule of thumb, the stronger
the pullback presents itself, the more fighting (buildup) necessary to
101
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Pullback
交易设置
- 模式突破回调
Within its 5-minute span, bar 3 had bullishly penetrated the box
在其5分钟的时间跨度内，柱3从下方看涨地穿透了箱体障碍，结果却崩溃并
barrier
from below, only to collapse and finish as a bearish doji away
以一个看跌的十字星收盘，远离箱体。这已经具备了模式突破回调设置的所有特
from
the
box. This already had all the makings of a pattern break pull­
征。但在任何柱子值得被称为信号柱之前，我们应该首先检查周围的条件是否支
back
setup. But before any bar deserves signal bar status, we should
持这一举动。
always check first whether the surrounding conditions are supportive
of the venture.
What were the hints and clues(a)available?
How about: (a) pullback
可用的提示和线索有哪些？比如：
回调2-3大约回撤了突破摆动1-2的50%
2-3(b)had
retraced about 50 percent of breakout
swing 1-2; (b) bar 3 set
；
第3根柱子在回调顶部设置为反转十字星；
(c) 该柱子穿透了25ema但收盘
up as a reversal
doji in the top of a pullback; (c) the bar had perforated
低于它；
(d) 低于第3根柱子的突破允许在接近箱体障碍扩展和25ema的地方进行
the 25ema but closed below it; (d)
the break below bar 3 allowed for an
有利的入场（没有不利的磁力）；
(e) 这个短线入场恰好与回调线的突破相吻
entry favorably close to the box barrier extension and the 25ema (no
合。
adverse magnets); (e) the entry on this short pleasantly coincided with
the break of a pullback line.
Against all this, bulls had little to bring to the table except maybe for
与此相对，牛市几乎没有什么可以拿出来的，除了也许是对1.37这个整数关
a thin sliver of hope that the round number of 1 .37 would still hold up.
口仍然能够支撑的微薄希望。然而，从所有提供的信息来看，可以合理推断出
From all that was offered, though, it was fair to deduce that the odds
，做空的机会远远大于做多的机会。因此，模式突破回调短线在第3根柱子下方
favored the short side way more than the buy side. Hence the pattern
。
break pullback short below bar 3 .
Note: I n a pattern break pullback situation, it i s highly preferable
注意：在模式突破回调的情况下，信号柱最好不仅在被突破的障碍区域内设
for the signal bar to set up not only in the broken barrier area but in
置，而且也在25ema内（第3根柱子）；很多时候，两者会同时发生。如果我们
the 25ema as well (bar 3); many times, both coincide. Should we spot
在回调中发现了一个反转柱子，而在达到均线之前，通常明智的做法是等待一
a
turnaround bar in a pUllback before the average is reached, in most
个更强的设置。因为很可能，修正尚未完全结束。
cases it will be wise to wait for a stronger setup. Chances are, the cor­
rection has not run its full course yet.
After taking the short to target in a matter of just two bars, prices
在仅仅两个柱子内完成短期目标后，价格以类似的力量反转（4-5）。当到
reversed with similar prowess (4-5). Upon arrival in the box barrier ex­
达箱体障碍延伸时，阻力再次显现，这在第5根柱子的看跌收盘中显而易见。
tension, resistance kicked in once again, as is evident by the bearish
这基本上设置了另一个信号柱，但在左侧的情况中没有的一个不和谐之处在于
close of bar 5. This basically set up another signal bar, but there is a
回调4-5的强大V形反应。
dissonant in this picture that was not present in the situation on the
left. It is the powerful V-shape response of pullback 4-5.
Although we will take up the particulars in more detail in our section
尽管我们将在本章稍后的回调反转部分中更详细地讨论细节，但细心的读者
on
the pullback reversal later in this chapter, the attentive reader may
可能已经注意到，除了回调的长度外，其强度也是一个重要的监测元素。作为
have noticed that next to the length of the pullback, the strength of it is
经验法则，回调表现得越强，所需的反转斗争（积累）就越多。
also an important element to monitor. As a rule of thumb, the stronger
the pullback presents itself, the more fighting (buildup) necessary to
101
Understanding Price Action
force its turn. In fact, some pullbacks can be so powerful in appear­
ance that we best abandon the idea of a reversal setup altogether. (See
Chapter 7.)
In a more borderline event, it can sometimes hinge on a tiny detail
whether the scale is tipped in favor of skipping or trading a break. I be­
lieve this was the case also with the short below bar 6 .
First off, progression 4-5 had retraced about 100 percent of swing
3-4 and had done so quite aggressively (three bullish powerbars) ; this
alone already put the potential reversal in the less desirable corner. A
favorable element, though, was to see bar 5 trapped between resistance
of the box extension and support of the pullback line (squeeze variant) .
When the pullback line was then broken by bar 6, the low of bar 5 was
not. Instead, bar 6 formed an inside bar with an identical low. This set
up a potential double-bar break.
Before we go there, let us imagine the low of bar 5 to have been
broken by bar 6 straightaway. With now only one bar in the turn of a
pretty aggressive pullback (5), this would have offered a weaker entry
for a sell-side bet, and perhaps one better skipped. In the actual situa­
tion, with bar 6 setting up as an inside bar to bar 5 , the tension in·the
turn had doubled, and this considerably improved the odds for follow­
through on the bear break. Can one bar really make such difference?
Depending on the situation, very much so.
A turnaround bar followed by an inside bar at a crucial spot in the
price action can be a very potent setup. We will look into this more
closely in the coming section on the pattern break combi. But let us
explore some more pattern break pullback examples first.
102
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
事实上，有些回调的外观可能强大到我们最好完全放弃反转设置的想法。（见
force its turn. In fact, some pullbacks can be so powerful in appear­
ance that we best abandon the idea of a reversal setup altogether. (See
第7章。）
Chapter 7.)
In a more borderline event, it can sometimes hinge on a tiny detail
在一个更为边缘的事件中，有时仅仅依靠一个微小的细节就能决定是跳过还是交
whether the scale is tipped in favor of skipping or trading a break. I be­
易一个突破。我相信这也是在第6根柱子下方做空的情况。
lieve this was the case also with the short below bar 6 .
First
off, progression 4-5 had retraced about 100 percent of swing
首先，进程4-5已经大约回撤了3-4的100%，而且是相当激进地（三个看涨的强
3-4 and had done so quite aggressively (three bullish powerbars) ; this
势柱）；这已经将潜在的反转放在了不太理想的角落。然而，一个有利的因素
alone already put the potential reversal in the less desirable corner. A
是看到第5根柱子被箱体延伸的阻力和回撤线的支撑夹住（挤压变体）。当回撤
favorable element, though, was to see bar 5 trapped between resistance
线被第6根柱子突破时，第5根柱子的低点并没有被突破。相反，第6根柱子形成
of the box extension and support of the pullback line (squeeze variant) .
了一个与第5根柱子相同低点的内部柱。这为潜在的双柱突破设置了条件。
When the pullback line was then broken by bar 6, the low of bar 5 was
not. Instead, bar 6 formed an inside bar with an identical low. This set
up a potential double-bar break.
Before we go there, let us imagine the low of bar 5 to have been
在我们继续之前，让我们想象第6根柱子直接突破了第5根柱子的低点。现在
broken
by bar 6 straightaway. With now only one bar in the turn of a
只有一根柱子处于一个相当激进的回撤（5）中，这将为卖方下注提供一个较弱
pretty
aggressive pullback (5), this would have offered a weaker entry
的入场点，或许更好地跳过。在实际情况下，第6根柱子作为第5根柱子的内部柱
for a sell-side bet, and perhaps one better skipped. In the actual situa­
设置，转折中的紧张感加倍，这大大提高了看跌突破的后续概率。一根柱子真
tion, with bar 6 setting up as an inside bar to bar 5 , the tension in·the
的能产生如此大的差异吗？根据情况，确实可以。
turn had doubled, and this considerably improved the odds for follow­
through on the bear break. Can one bar really make such difference?
Depending on the situation, very much so.
A turnaround bar followed by an inside bar at a crucial spot in the
在价格走势的关键点上，转折柱后跟随一个内部柱可以是一个非常有效的
price action can be a very potent setup. We will look into this more
交易设置。我们将在接下来的模式突破组合部分更详细地探讨这一点。但让我
closely in the coming section on the pattern break combi. But let us
们先探索一些模式突破回调的例子。
explore some more pattern break pullback examples first.
102
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Pullback
Chapter 5
IFig 5.81
www.ProRealTime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
1.35
1 .345
1 .34
01:00
02:00
04:00
05:00
07:00
Figure 5.8 A strong uptrend that manages to keep all bars well above
the 25ema is not something to be taken lightly, not even by powerful
parties with bearish views on the bigger picture. But even when the
overall pressure is unmistakably one-sided and all signs point in favor
of continuation, it still takes careful planning to hop along for the ride,
especially when working with tight stops.
When aiming for continuation, the principle of harmony between
trend and pullback is a crucial element to examine and this will be
taken up in more detail in the section on our fourth setup, the pullback
reversal. For now, as a simple rule of thumb, and this basically regards
all our breakout ventures, we should avoid to enter well away from the
25ema. Since the average often acts like a magnet too, we have much
less to fear from these habitual corrections when trading from its "base"
(for lack of a better word). The bull breaks above bar 1 and 3, for ex­
ample, were both set in line with dominance and not devoid of buildup
either. But both entries suffered strong risk of the adverse 25ema mag­
net, and went up against the adverse pull of the round number as well.
Despite the need for caution, there is one undeniable advantage of
the trend and that is that it clearly tells us which side of the market to
shun. Either we wait for a setup to trade in line with the trending pres­
sure, or we do nothing at all. This is a vital concept to grasp and we can
only hope that the unfortunate bears who got caught in the false break
below the dotted line will have taken note (4) . Of course, it were not only
bears who got trapped in that false downward break. Some bulls, too,
will have been tricked: either into exiting their profitable longs, or when
103
Trade Setups - 模式突破回调
Pattern Break Pullback
交易设置
Chapter 5
第五章
IFig 5.81
图 5.8
www.ProRealTime.com
欧元/美元
分钟
eur/usd 55-minute
1.35
1 .345
1 .34
01:00
02:00
04:00
05:00
07:00
Figure
5.8 A strong uptrend that manages to keep
bars well above
图 5.8 一种强劲的上升趋势，所有的柱子都保持在
25ema all
之上，这并不是轻
the 25ema is not something to be taken lightly, not even by powerful
易可以忽视的，甚至对于在更大图景中持有看跌观点的强大参与者来说也是
parties with bearish views on the bigger picture. But even when the
如此。但即使整体压力显而易见且所有迹象都指向持续上涨，仍然需要仔细
overall pressure is unmistakably one-sided and all signs point in favor
规划才能顺利跟随，尤其是在使用紧密止损的情况下。
of continuation, it still takes careful planning to hop along for the ride,
especially when working with tight stops.
When aiming for continuation, the principle of harmony between
在追求延续性时，趋势与回调之间的和谐原则是一个至关重要的要素，需要
trend and pullback is a crucial element to examine and this will be
仔细审视，这将在我们第四个设置——回调反转的部分中详细讨论。现在，作
taken
up in more detail in the section on our fourth setup, the pullback
为一个简单的经验法则，这基本上适用于我们所有的突破交易，我们应该避免
reversal.
For now, as a simple rule of thumb, and this basically regards
在距离25ema过远的地方入场。由于均线通常像磁铁一样起作用，因此当我们从
all our breakout ventures, we should avoid to enter well away from the
其“基础”（缺乏更好的词汇）进行交易时，我们对这些习惯性修正的恐惧要小得
25ema. Since the average often acts like a magnet too, we have much
多。例如，牛市突破发生在第1和第3根柱子上，都是与主导趋势一致的，并且并
less
to fear from these habitual corrections when trading from its "base"
非没有积累。但这两个入场点都面临着强烈的25ema磁铁的风险，并且还与整数
(for lack of a better word). The bull breaks above bar 1 and 3, for ex­
关口的逆向拉力相对抗。尽管需要谨慎，但趋势有一个不可否认的优势，那就是
ample, were both set in line with dominance and not devoid of buildup
它清楚地告诉我们应该避开市场的哪一方。我们要么等待一个与趋势压力一致的
either. But both entries suffered strong risk of the adverse 25ema mag­
交易设置，要么什么都不做。这是一个至关重要的概念，我们只能希望那些在
net,
and went up against the adverse pull of the round number as well.
虚假突破下跌的多头（4）能注意到这一点。当然，不仅仅是空头被困在那次虚
Despite the need for caution, there is one undeniable advantage of
假的下跌突破中。一些多头也会被欺骗：要么退出他们的盈利多头，要么在
the trend and that is that it clearly tells us which side of the market to
shun. Either we wait for a setup to trade in line with the trending pres­
sure, or we do nothing at all. This is a vital concept to grasp and we can
only hope that the unfortunate bears who got caught in the false break
below the dotted line will have taken note (4) . Of course, it were not only
bears who got trapped in that false downward break. Some bulls, too,
will have been tricked: either into exiting their profitable longs, or when
103
Understanding Price Action
forced protect themselves from further loss on whatever they bought
higher up.
It may seem contradictory that there can be danger in trading a
break when the opponent is likely to be forced out on it, since this
implies a double-pressure situation. But that is hardly a guarantee
for follow-through. Particularly when the break is set straight into a
trending 25ema, as was the case below the dotted line, double pressure
against dominance can be very short-lived, if forthcoming at all (mind
the contrarians!). In other words, while a bull can be forgiven to have
exited his long, this was certainly no place for a bear to play short.
Recalling the principle of false highs and lows, a failed break on one
side of the market could be a harbinger of a successful break on the
other, especially when the latter is set in line with dominance. With this
in mind, it is hardly surprising to see new bulls come in when bar 4 was
broken topside. Earlier on, we referred to this technique as trading a
break forfailure (see Figure 5.5). In a favorable chart, this can be a very
lucrative practice, but is best explored with solid breakout experience
under the belt. (More on this in Chapter 7.) For now, the break of bar
4 can be rightfully skipped in anticipation of some more pulling and
pushing in the round number area.
Whenever a pattern boundary gets broken (2-5), traders need to
make up their minds on the validity of the event, in essence, whether to
hop along, counter, or let the situation pass. When consensus appears
divided, but the break itself is not undone, not seldom this leads to the
forming of a smaller pattern outside the broken bigger one (5-7) .
In contrast with the foregoing pattern break pullback examples, pro­
gression 5-7 was much less angular, almost flat, and quite nondescript;
but it was a pullback nonetheless and its purpose was to test the va­
lidity of the bigger pattern breakout. Well supported by a bullish triple
(round number, barrier extension and 25ema) , the first bullish bar in
this mini flag could already present itself as a signal bar for another
breakout. So attention is key.
The first bar to be taken out on the upside was the one at 6. Al­
though small as a bar can be, this was a valid signal bar. It originated
in the lows of the pullback and in the presence of the bullish triple as
104
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
被迫保护自己免受进一步损失的交易者在他们购买的高位上。
forced protect themselves from further loss on whatever they bought
higher up.
It may seem contradictory that there can be danger in trading a
当对手可能在交易突破时被迫退出时，似乎存在交易突破的危险，这似乎是
break when the opponent is likely to be forced out on it, since this
矛盾的，因为这暗示着双重压力的情况。但这并不保证会有后续行动。特别是
implies a double-pressure situation. But that is hardly a guarantee
当突破直接设定在一个趋势的25ema上时，如下方虚线所示，针对主导地位的双
for follow-through. Particularly when the break is set straight into a
重压力可能是非常短暂的，甚至根本不会出现（要注意反向交易者！）。换句
trending
25ema, as was the case below the dotted line, double pressure
话说，尽管多头可以被原谅退出其多头头寸，但这绝对不是空头进行做空的地
against dominance can be very short-lived, if forthcoming at all (mind
方。
the contrarians!). In other words, while a bull can be forgiven to have
exited his long, this was certainly no place for a bear to play short.
Recalling
the principle of false highs and lows, a failed break on one
回想一下虚假高点和低点的原则，市场一侧的失败突破可能是另一侧成功突
side of the market could be a harbinger of a successful break on the
破的先兆，尤其是当后者与主导地位一致时。考虑到这一点，当第4根柱子被突
other, especially when the latter is set in line with dominance. With this
破时，看到新的多头进场并不奇怪。早些时候，我们将这种技术称为交易失败
in
mind, it is hardly surprising to see new bulls come in when bar 4 was
的突破（见图5.5）。在有利的图表中，这可以是一种非常有利可图的做法，但
broken
topside. Earlier on, we referred to this technique as trading a
最好在具备扎实的突破经验后再进行探索。（关于这一点将在第7章中详细讨论
break
forfailure (see Figure 5.5). In a favorable chart, this can be a very
。）现在，第4根柱子的突破可以合理地跳过，以期待在整数区域内进行更多的
lucrative practice, but is best explored with solid breakout experience
拉锯战。
under the belt. (More on this in Chapter 7.) For now, the break of bar
4 can be rightfully skipped in anticipation of some more pulling and
pushing in the round number area.
Whenever a pattern boundary gets broken (2-5), traders need to
每当一个模式边界被打破（2-5），交易者需要对事件的有效性做出判断，实
make up their minds on the validity of the event, in essence, whether to
质上是决定是跟随、反向还是让情况过去。当共识似乎分歧，但突破本身并未被
hop along, counter, or let the situation pass. When consensus appears
撤回时，这往往会导致在被打破的更大模式外形成一个更小的模式（5-7）。
divided, but the break itself is not undone, not seldom this leads to the
forming of a smaller pattern outside the broken bigger one (5-7) .
In contrast with the foregoing pattern break pullback examples, pro­
与前述模式突破回调示例相比，进程5-7的角度要小得多，几乎是平坦的，
gression 5-7 was much less angular, almost flat, and quite nondescript;
且相当不起眼；但这仍然是一次回调，其目的是测试更大模式突破的有效性。
but
it was a pullback nonetheless and its purpose was to test the va­
在一个看涨的三重支撑（整数关口、阻力延伸和25ema）的良好支持下，这个
lidity
of the bigger pattern breakout. Well supported by a bullish triple
迷你旗形中的第一根看涨柱已经可以作为另一次突破的信号柱。因此，关注是
(round number, barrier extension and 25ema) , the first bullish bar in
关键。
this mini flag could already present itself as a signal bar for another
breakout. So attention is key.
The first bar to be taken out on the upside was the one at 6. Al­
被向上突破的第一根柱子是6号柱。尽管这根柱子小得不能再小，但这是一
though
small as a bar can be, this was a valid signal bar. It originated
根有效的信号柱。它起源于回调的低点，并且在看涨三重支撑的存在下。
in the lows of the pullback and in the presence of the bullish triple as
104
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Pullback
mentioned. Furthermore, bar 6 was a miniature false low with its neigh­
bor on the left, a feat that was technically confirmed when the next bar
(our entry bar) came to take out its high (first arrow).
Once again prices were reluctant to move out, but they .did not re­
trace much either. When caught in a noncompliant trade right after
entry, always stay calm, trust your stop, and give the market a fair
chance to work things out. As a rule of thumb: at least for as long as
the 25ema holds up in line with your trade, the odds to see prices take
off favorably are very good still. And in this stalling phase, tension can
only build up. In many such scenario, at some point we may even be
able to anticipate the exact spot for the market to resolve the situation;
for example, when bar 7 showed up, there really was no more space left
in the squeeze between the overhanging flag line and the 25ema. Some­
thing had to give then and there.
In retrospect, an entry above bar 7 is probably superior to the one
above bar 6; after all, the buildup was now extended with two more
bars and there was a flag line perforation to help the bull break along.
Needless to say, there is never any way of knowing that a few bars down
the line a "better" setup will show up. But then again, if good is good
enough (and it is), that is irrelevant also. Standard operating tactics
dictate that we have to accept the first valid offer to come along.
Shortly after the small' flag was broken, bar 8 briefly tested back
the breakout, which was also a touch on the round number magnet. If
for some reason not yet in position, a bull could make use of this mini
correction to quickly buy himself in, without waiting for another bar to
be taken out first. Since this practice overrules standard procedure, it
is to be used sparingly and as a last resort only; we could look upon it
as a belated entry on a break that was somehow missed just moments
before; it is definitely not recommended as a clever way to cheapskate
on a fill, for example by deliberately skipping a valid break in the hopes
of finding a more economical entry on a slight pullback reaction. Even
though this "trick" may work out here and there, saving yourself a pip
or so each time you get away with it, you only need to miss an entry
once on what could have been a pleasurable 20 pip ride and you can
start all over again being smart.
105
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Pullback
交易设置
- 图案突破回调
mentioned.
Furthermore, bar 6 was a miniature false low with its neigh­
此外，第6根柱子是一个微型假低，其左侧的邻居也证实了这一点，当下一根柱
bor on the left, a feat that was technically confirmed when the next bar
子（我们的入场柱）突破其高点时（第一箭头）。
(our entry bar) came to take out its high (first arrow).
Once again prices were reluctant to move out, but they .did not re­
价格再次不愿意突破，但也没有大幅回撤。当在入场后被困在一个不合规
trace much either. When caught in a noncompliant trade right after
的交易中时，始终保持冷静，相信你的止损，并给市场一个公平的机会来解
entry, always stay calm, trust your stop, and give the market a fair
决问题。作为一个经验法则：至少在25ema与您的交易保持一致的情况下，看
chance to work things out. As a rule of thumb: at least for as long as
到价格有利于上涨的机会仍然非常好。在这种停滞阶段，紧张感只能加剧。在
the 25ema holds up in line with your trade, the odds to see prices take
许多这样的情况下，某个时刻我们甚至可以预见市场解决局势的确切位置；例
off
favorably are very good still. And in this stalling phase, tension can
如，当第7根柱子出现时，实际上在悬挂的旗形线和25ema之间已经没有更多的
only build up. In many such scenario, at some point we may even be
空间了。那时，必须有某种东西要发生。
able to anticipate the exact spot for the market to resolve the situation;
for example, when bar 7 showed up, there really was no more space left
in the squeeze between the overhanging flag line and the 25ema. Some­
thing had to give then and there.
In retrospect, an entry above bar 7 is probably superior to the one
回想起来，第7条以上的入场点可能比第6条的更优；毕竟，随着多了两条
above bar 6; after all, the buildup was now extended with two more
线的延续，构建已经扩展，并且有一个旗形线的穿透来帮助多头突破。无需
bars and there was a flag line perforation to help the bull break along.
多言，永远无法知道在后面的几条线中会出现一个“更好”的设置。但话又说回
Needless to say, there is never any way of knowing that a few bars down
来，如果好的就足够好（而且确实如此），那也是无关紧要的。标准操作策略
the line a "better" setup will show up. But then again, if good is good
规定，我们必须接受第一个有效的报价。
enough (and it is), that is irrelevant also. Standard operating tactics
dictate that we have to accept the first valid offer to come along.
Shortly after the small' flag was broken, bar 8 briefly tested back
在小旗形被突破后不久，第8条线短暂测试了突破，这也是对整数关口的触碰
the breakout, which was also a touch on the round number magnet. If
。如果出于某种原因尚未入场，多头可以利用这个小幅回调迅速买入，而不必
for some reason not yet in position, a bull could make use of this mini
等到另一条线被突破后再入场。由于这种做法超出了标准程序，因此应谨慎使
correction
to quickly buy himself in, without waiting for another bar to
用，仅作为最后的手段；我们可以将其视为在刚刚错过的突破上进行的延迟入
be taken out first. Since this practice overrules standard procedure, it
场；这绝对不是一种聪明的方式来节省填单成本，例如故意跳过一个有效的突
is to be used sparingly and as a last resort only; we could look upon it
破，希望在轻微回调反应中找到更经济的入场点。尽管这个“技巧”可能在某些情
as
a belated entry on a break that was somehow missed just moments
况下奏效，节省每次一两个点，但你只需错过一次本可以享受的20点的入场，
before;
it is definitely not recommended as a clever way to cheapskate
你就会重新开始变得聪明。
on a fill, for example by deliberately skipping a valid break in the hopes
of finding a more economical entry on a slight pullback reaction. Even
though this "trick" may work out here and there, saving yourself a pip
or so each time you get away with it, you only need to miss an entry
once on what could have been a pleasurable 20 pip ride and you can
start all over again being smart.
105
Understanding Price Action
Note: A continuation trade in the highs or lows of a rally can be a
tricky proposition, but need not be shunned by default. Whenever a
pullback fails to materialize in price, a correction in time could set up
a valid offer as well. Generally speaking, the lengthier such action the
better, which is why it is much advised to at least wait for prices to meet
up with the average.
I
Fig 5.9 1
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Figure 5.9 Apart from the price action itself, the degree of slope of any
pattern line is largely a function of how the chart is set up both horizon­
tally and vertically. For visual guidance, it is highly recommended to set
up the ratio between both axes as default. By always looking at the same
setting, your eyes will become more easily accustomed to the beat and
drum of your chosen instrument and it will be much easier also to tell a
pattern line from a trendline (usually steeper and stronger). This implies
that there is a certain threshold regarding a line's angle beyond which
a break would no longer meet the requirements of tradability. Unfortu­
nately, there are no hard-and-fast rules on this matter, but if you set up
the ratio between the time and price axis as a constant, regardless even
of the actual setting, this can only benefit the way you gauge the action
on your instruments and time frames of choice. Personally, my advice
would be to sooner squeeze down the charts vertically and stretch them
out horizontally than the other way around-pretty much as depicted
in this guide. Anyway, always keep in mind that the steeper the pattern
line (in relation to the average slope) , the stronger the market and the
bigger the chance this dominance will prove resilient when attacked.
106
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Note: A continuation trade in the highs or lows of a rally can be a
注意：在反弹的高点或低点进行延续交易可能是一个棘手的提议，但不必默
tricky
proposition, but need not be shunned by default. Whenever a
认就被排除。每当价格未能出现回调时，时间上的修正也可能形成有效的卖出
pullback fails to materialize in price, a correction in time could set up
机会。一般来说，这种行为持续的时间越长越好，这就是为什么建议至少等待
a
valid offer as well. Generally speaking, the lengthier such action the
价格与平均线相遇。
better, which is why it is much advised to at least wait for prices to meet
up with the average.
Fig 5.9 1
I 图 5.9
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Figure
5.9 Apart from the price action itself, the degree of slope of any
图
5.9 除了价格行为本身，任何图形线的斜率在很大程度上取决于图表的水平
pattern
line is largely a function of how the chart is set up both horizon­
和垂直设置。为了视觉指导，强烈建议将两个轴之间的比例设置为默认值。通
tally and vertically. For visual guidance, it is highly recommended to set
过始终查看相同的设置，您的眼睛将更容易适应您所选择的工具的节奏和韵律
up
the ratio between both axes as default. By always looking at the same
，同时也更容易区分图形线和趋势线（通常更陡峭且更强）。这意味着在某个
setting,
your eyes will become more easily accustomed to the beat and
角度阈值之上，线的突破将不再符合可交易的要求。不幸的是，在这方面没有
drum of your chosen instrument and it will be much easier also to tell a
硬性规则，但如果您将时间轴和价格轴之间的比例设置为常数，无论实际设置
pattern line from a trendline (usually steeper and stronger). This implies
如何，这只能有利于您评估所选工具和时间框架上的行为。就个人而言，我的
that there is a certain threshold regarding a line's angle beyond which
建议是，宁可将图表在垂直方向上压缩，在水平方向上拉伸，而不是反过来—
a break would no longer meet the requirements of tradability. Unfortu­
—这在本指南中有很好的描述。无论如何，请始终记住，图形线越陡（相对于
nately, there are no hard-and-fast rules on this matter, but if you set up
平均斜率），市场越强，且这种主导地位在受到攻击时更有可能保持韧性。
the ratio between the time and price axis as a constant, regardless even
of the actual setting, this can only benefit the way you gauge the action
on your instruments and time frames of choice. Personally, my advice
would be to sooner squeeze down the charts vertically and stretch them
out horizontally than the other way around-pretty much as depicted
in this guide. Anyway, always keep in mind that the steeper the pattern
line (in relation to the average slope) , the stronger the market and the
bigger the chance this dominance will prove resilient when attacked.
106
Chapter 5 ,
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Pullback
Even though there may appear to be plenty of "room" in the chart for
prices to correct, it remains to be seen how well a tight stop would hold
up in a breakout wager that is likely to attract some tenacious defend­
ers. All of this is dependent, of course, on the situation at hand and on
how flexible a trader is when it comes to his entry and exit techniques.
There is certainly no law that says you always have to trade your breaks
with a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip target.
Figure 5.9 shows a multiple-arch formation on top of a respectable
pattern line (arch 1 -2-3 followed by head-and-shoulders 3-7). Progres­
sion 4-7 was the flattest arch in the range so far; in the top of it there
resided a small series of topping tail dojis, a clear token of resistance
(5-6) . Maybe it was too early to already think short, but it was evident
that bulls had run into strong opposition. Bar 7 certainly didn't change
their situation for the better.
This chart example shows a third application of the pattern break
pullback setup. In the first version, we covered the angular pullback
to the broken pattern line (Figures 5.6 and 5.7). In the second, we saw
prices stagnate a little outside of a broken pattern (Figure 5.8). In this
final version, we now have prices stalling in the breakout level itself,
with the pattern line running straight through the buildup. This could
be the result of a line being plotted slightly off, but is a regular occur­
rence also even when deaii'ng with a nondebatable slope. As to the line
in question, it looks okay the way it is drawn (overruling the low of 3 in
favor of more touches further up) .
Bar 7 left little to the imagination as to the bears' intentions, but the
lack of buildup on the pattern line rendered the bar invalid as a signal
bar. The low of this bar held up anyway, since bulls immediately retali­
ated with a counterattack in bar 8. While deserving credit for curbing
the initial breakout, bulls now faced the resistance of the 5-6 bear block
above; this left them quite exposed and in need of assistance.
Right in the opening bell of the EU morning (08:00), help did arrive
and for a brief moment in time bar 9 must have shown a brave and vic­
torious bullish body. But alas, five minutes turned out to be too long for
this bar to preserve its bullish features.
By forcing bar 9 not only to retreat, but to close below the pattern
107
Chapter 5 ,
第五章
Trade Setups - Pattern
Break Pullback
模式突破回调
交易设置
Even though there may appear to be plenty of "room" in the chart for
尽管图表中似乎有足够的“空间”供价格修正，但仍有待观察在可能吸引一些顽
prices
to correct, it remains to be seen how well a tight stop would hold
强捍卫者的突破赌注中，紧止损能否有效。所有这一切当然取决于当时的情况
up
in a breakout wager that is likely to attract some tenacious defend­
，以及交易者在进出场技巧上的灵活性。并没有法律规定你必须始终以10点的
ers.
All of this is dependent, of course, on the situation at hand and on
止损和20点的目标进行突破交易。
how flexible a trader is when it comes to his entry and exit techniques.
There is certainly no law that says you always have to trade your breaks
with a 10 pip stop and a 20 pip target.
Figure 5.9 shows a multiple-arch formation on top of a respectable
图5.9显示了一个多拱形的形态，位于一个相当可观的模式线之上（拱形1-2-3后
pattern line (arch 1 -2-3 followed by head-and-shoulders 3-7). Progres­
跟头肩形3-7）。进程4-7是迄今为止范围内最平坦的拱形；在其顶部有一小系列顶
sion 4-7 was the flattest arch in the range so far; in the top of it there
部影线的十字星，明显是阻力的标志（5-6）。也许现在就考虑做空为时尚早，但
resided a small series of topping tail dojis, a clear token of resistance
显然多头遇到了强烈的反对。第7根柱子显然没有改善他们的情况。
(5-6) . Maybe it was too early to already think short, but it was evident
that bulls had run into strong opposition. Bar 7 certainly didn't change
their situation for the better.
This
chart example shows a third application of the pattern break
这个图表示例展示了模式突破回调设置的第三种应用。在第一个版本中，
pullback setup. In the first version, we covered the angular pullback
我们讨论了价格回调到破裂模式线的角度（图5.6和5.7）。在第二个版本中，我
to the broken pattern line (Figures 5.6 and 5.7). In the second, we saw
们看到价格在破裂模式外稍微停滞（图5.8）。在这个最终版本中，我们现在看
prices
stagnate a little outside of a broken pattern (Figure 5.8). In this
到价格在突破水平本身停滞，模式线正好穿过这个积累区域。这可能是由于线
final version, we now have prices stalling in the breakout level itself,
条绘制得稍微偏离，但即使在处理一个无可争议的斜率时，这也是一种常见现
with the pattern line running straight through the buildup. This could
象。至于这条线，它的绘制方式看起来是可以的（为了更多的触碰而忽略了3
be the result of a line being plotted slightly off, but is a regular occur­
的低点）。
rence also even when deaii'ng with a nondebatable slope. As to the line
in question, it looks okay the way it is drawn (overruling the low of 3 in
favor of more touches further up) .
Bar 7 left little to the imagination as to the bears' intentions, but the
第7根柱子几乎没有给人留下想象的空间，显示了空头的意图，但模式线上
lack
of buildup on the pattern line rendered the bar invalid as a signal
的缺乏积累使得这根柱子无效作为信号柱。这根柱子的低点依然保持住了，因
bar. The low of this bar held up anyway, since bulls immediately retali­
为多头在第8根柱子中立即进行了反击。虽然值得赞扬的是他们遏制了初始突破
ated with a counterattack in bar 8. While deserving credit for curbing
，但多头现在面临着上方5-6空头区块的阻力；这使得他们相当暴露，需要支援
the initial breakout, bulls now faced the resistance of the 5-6 bear block
。
above; this left them quite exposed and in need of assistance.
Right in the opening bell of the EU morning (08:00), help did arrive
在欧盟早晨的开盘铃声响起时（08:00），帮助确实到来了，短暂的时刻内，第9
and for a brief moment in time bar 9 must have shown a brave and vic­
根K线似乎展现出了一种勇敢而胜利的看涨形态。但可惜的是，五分钟的时间对于
torious bullish body. But alas, five minutes turned out to be too long for
这根K线来说太长了，无法保持其看涨特征。
this bar to preserve its bullish features.
By forcing bar 9 not only to retreat, but to close below the pattern
通过迫使第9根K线不仅回撤，还收盘低于该形态，空头再次重创了看涨的士气。
107
Understanding Price Action
line as well, bears again hit hard on the bullish morale. It then took a
mere break of this bar to bring capitulation about.
Isn't it nice that we can watch all this unfold from the pleasant safety
of the sidelines. By letting the other parties do the fighting first (build­
up) , all we have to do is time the entry on the break, should one come
forth in tradable fashion (enter short below bar 9).
Note also the favorable position of the 50-level magnet. Provided en­
try is taken away from buildup, a round number about 20 pip out can
be a very powerful ally in the total concept of a trade (it surely isn't
counterproductive). Of course, round numbers can make for nasty op­
ponents as well (3). It's all a matter of perspective.
Pattern Break Combi
The pattern break combi harbors many features of both the regular
pattern break setup and the pattern break pullback variant. The suffix
combi is referring to a two-bar pattern, a powerbar followed by an inside
bar. The possible combinations that make up this duo are plenty, but
the message is essentially the same in all: the powerbar displays direc­
tional pressure, the inside bar builds up tension next to it. In conditions
that favor the direction of the powerbar, it is the inside bar that func­
tions as our signal bar.
Even though a combi breakout is often acted on in relative isolation
(inside bar tactics), the follow-through response is generally the stron­
gest when the combi is part of a bigger breakout of sorts. Hence the
pattern break combi.
Figure 5. 1 0 shows a number of standalone combi setups; the first
three are bullish, the last three bearish. Note that the last example
shows a reversed combi, meaning the inside bar came before the pow­
erbar; interestingly, this doesn't have to affect the implications of the
pattern itself. To see why, imagine the taller doji on the right to be
broken at the bottom by a third bar: that would technically confirm a
false high (bull break followed by a bear break), which harbors bearish
implications of its own.
108
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
line as well, bears again hit hard on the bullish morale. It then took a
然后只需突破这根K线，就能引发投降。
mere break of this bar to bring capitulation about.
Isn't it nice that we can watch all this unfold from the pleasant safety
在安全的边缘观看这一切展开，难道不是很美好吗？通过让其他方先进行
of the sidelines. By letting the other parties do the fighting first (build­
斗争（积累），我们只需在突破时选择合适的时机进入交易（在第9根柱子下
up)
, all we have to do is time the entry on the break, should one come
方做空）。
forth in tradable fashion (enter short below bar 9).
Note also the favorable position of the 50-level magnet. Provided en­
还要注意50水平磁铁的有利位置。只要在积累之外进行入场，距离大约20
try is taken away from buildup, a round number about 20 pip out can
个点的整数关口可以在交易的整体概念中成为一个非常强大的盟友（这绝对
be a very powerful ally in the total concept of a trade (it surely isn't
不是反生产的）。当然，整数关口也可能成为讨厌的对手（3）。这完全是一
counterproductive). Of course, round numbers can make for nasty op­
个视角的问题。
ponents as well (3). It's all a matter of perspective.
模式突破组合
Pattern Break Combi
The pattern break combi harbors many features of both the regular
模式突破组合包含了常规模式突破设置和模式突破回调变体的许多特征。组
pattern
break setup and the pattern break pullback variant. The suffix
合的后缀指的是一个两根柱子的模式，一个强势柱后面跟着一个内部柱。构
combi is referring to a two-bar pattern, a powerbar followed by an inside
成这对组合的可能性有很多，但信息在所有情况下基本相同：强势柱显示出
bar.
The possible combinations that make up this duo are plenty, but
方向压力，内部柱在其旁边积累张力。在有利于强势柱方向的条件下，内部
the message is essentially the same in all: the powerbar displays direc­
柱作为我们的信号柱。
tional pressure, the inside bar builds up tension next to it. In conditions
that favor the direction of the powerbar, it is the inside bar that func­
tions as our signal bar.
Even though a combi breakout is often acted on in relative isolation
尽管组合突破通常是在相对孤立的情况下进行的（内部柱战术），但当组合是
(inside bar tactics), the follow-through response is generally the stron­
某种更大突破的一部分时，后续反应通常是最强的。因此，形成了模式突破组合
gest when the combi is part of a bigger breakout of sorts. Hence the
。
pattern break combi.
Figure 5. 1 0 shows a number of standalone combi setups; the first
图5.10展示了一些独立的组合设置；前三个是看涨的，最后三个是看跌的。注
three
are bullish, the last three bearish. Note that the last example
意最后一个例子显示了一个反向组合，这意味着内部柱出现在强势柱之前；有
shows a reversed combi, meaning the inside bar came before the pow­
趣的是，这并不一定会影响模式本身的含义。为了理解这一点，想象右侧的较
erbar;
interestingly, this doesn't have to affect the implications of the
高十字星被第三根柱子从底部突破：这在技术上会确认一个虚假高点（看涨突
pattern itself. To see why, imagine the taller doji on the right to be
破后跟随看跌突破），这本身就蕴含着看跌的含义。
broken at the bottom by a third bar: that would technically confirm a
false high (bull break followed by a bear break), which harbors bearish
implications of its own.
108
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
Figure 5.10 Typical combi setup examples.
Less common, but no less powerful, is for a combi to contain two tall
dojis standing next to each other, both closing in the same direction
away from their center. Yet another version is to see the small inside bar
replaced by a powerful doji.
Preferably, the color of the inside bar's body, if not a neutral dash,
is the same as that of the powerbar. Favorable also is when both bars
share the same high or low at the breaking end (double-bar break) . But
these features are not a specific requirement for a combi pattern to earn
setup status. For example, it doesn't have to be a deal-breaker to see a
bearish inside bar alongside a bullish powerbar, as long as the inside
bar is still situated in the higher region of the powerbar.
And lastly, should a second inside bar pop up next to the first, this
can only add to the tension; therefore, all else equal, the implications
of a three-bar combi are the same as those of a regular two-bar combi
(perhaps even stronger).
In the majority of combi breakouts, position can be taken on the
break of the inside bar, but on occasion it may be an option to postpone
entry until the powerbar is taken out also. Whether this would indeed
provide a "stronger" signal is up to the assessment of the situation at
hand. Always keep in mind, though, that the presence of a combi pat­
tern by itself is never a reason to think long or short. It is just a tool with
which to time an entry in a breakout situation.
109
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
- 模式突破组合
Figure典型的组合设置示例。
5.10 Typical combi setup examples.
图5.10
Less common, but no less powerful, is for a combi to contain two tall
不太常见，但同样强大的是，组合中可以包含两个高位蜡烛图并排站立，两个蜡
dojis
standing next to each other, both closing in the same direction
烛图都朝着远离其中心的同一方向收缩。另一种版本是看到内部蜡烛图被一个强
away from their center. Yet another version is to see the small inside bar
大的蜡烛图所取代。
replaced by a powerful doji.
Preferably, the color of the inside bar's body, if not a neutral dash,
理想情况下，内部蜡烛图的实体颜色（如果不是中性的短横线）应与强势
is
the same as that of the powerbar. Favorable also is when both bars
蜡烛图的颜色相同。若两个蜡烛图在突破端共享相同的高点或低点（双蜡烛
share the same high or low at the breaking end (double-bar break) . But
突破），这也是有利的。但这些特征并不是组合模式获得设置状态的具体要
these features are not a specific requirement for a combi pattern to earn
求。例如，看到一个看跌的内部蜡烛图与一个看涨的强势蜡烛图并存并不一
setup status. For example, it doesn't have to be a deal-breaker to see a
定是个问题，只要内部蜡烛图仍然位于强势蜡烛图的上方区域。
bearish inside bar alongside a bullish powerbar, as long as the inside
bar is still situated in the higher region of the powerbar.
And lastly, should a second inside bar pop up next to the first, this
最后，如果第二个内部蜡烛图出现在第一个旁边，这只能增加紧张感；因此
can only add to the tension; therefore, all else equal, the implications
，在其他条件相同的情况下，三条蜡烛图组合的含义与常规的两条蜡烛图组合相
of a three-bar combi are the same as those of a regular two-bar combi
同（甚至可能更强）。
(perhaps even stronger).
In the majority of combi breakouts, position can be taken on the
在大多数组合突破中，可以在内部柱的突破时进场，但有时也可以选择推迟
break of the inside bar, but on occasion it may be an option to postpone
入场，直到强势柱被突破。是否这样做确实会提供一个“更强”的信号取决于对当
entry until the powerbar is taken out also. Whether this would indeed
前情况的评估。不过，请始终记住，仅仅存在组合模式本身并不是认为做多或做
provide
a "stronger" signal is up to the assessment of the situation at
空的理由。它只是一个工具，用于在突破情况下把握入场时机。
hand. Always keep in mind, though, that the presence of a combi pat­
tern by itself is never a reason to think long or short. It is just a tool with
which to time an entry in a breakout situation.
109
Understanding Price Action
1Fig 5.1 11
www.PfoRoalTimo. com
oUf/usd S-minuto
· 1.38
Figure 5.11 When it comes to the eurjusd instrument, the first few
hours of the Asian session may show some decent price swings still,
but it usually doesn't take long for prices to enter into a stale, lackluster
phase that can last all the way to the European Open. Caution is always
recommended when volume visibly dries up. In Figure 5. 1 1 , the phase
between 05:00 and 06:30 shows the classic features of a market lying
dead in the water. It is very important not to mistake this kind of price
action for bUildup. Whereas a little cluster of sideways bars in an active
environment can already build up tension fairly well, a lengthy phase in
a dead market is often no more than a pointless set of price bars trading
into nothingness. Not surprisingly, such a climate sits much better with
the contrarian game than that of the breakout trader.
On the good side, no price action is ever lost on the careful observer
and even a stale Asian session can provide valuable hints and clues
that can be of help later on. Let us therefore establish an overview on
Figure 5. 1 1 first before zooming in on the details of the pattern break
combi setup in the ellipse.
Telling by the slope of the 25ema on the far left, bears were the
dominant party in the early Asian session. In the sideways hours that
followed, bulls repeatedly tried to make a stand, but they weren't very
convincing and never really made it past the 25ema defense.
The fact that the bulls could not reclaim possession of the 25ema
was a strong bearish clue to obtain. After all, how on earth were these
bulls to topple the bears if they couldn't even stay on top of the average.
Great markers of bullish failure were the false highs at 1 , 2 , 3 and 4:
1 10
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
1图
Fig 5.11
5.1 11
www.PfoRoalTimo. com
欧元/美元
5 分钟
oUf/usd S-minuto
· 1.38
Figure
5.11 When it comes to the eurjusd instrument, the first few
图
5.11 在欧元/美元工具方面，亚洲时段的头几个小时可能会出现一些不错的价
hours
of the Asian session may show some decent price swings still,
格波动，但通常不会过久，价格就会进入一个乏味、无趣的阶段，这种情况可
but
it usually doesn't take long for prices to enter into a stale, lackluster
能会持续到欧洲开盘。显然，当成交量明显减少时，总是建议保持谨慎。在图
phase
that can
last 之间的阶段显示了市场处于停滞状态的经典特征。非常重
all the way to the European Open. Caution is always
5.11
中，05:00
到 06:30
recommended when volume visibly dries up. In Figure 5. 1 1 , the phase
要的是，不要将这种价格行为误认为是积累。虽然在活跃环境中，一小簇横盘
between
05:00 and 06:30 shows the classic features of a market lying
的柱子可以很好地积累紧张情绪，但在死气沉沉的市场中，漫长的阶段往往只
dead in the water. It is very important not to mistake this kind of price
是一组毫无意义的价格柱子在无所事事地交易。不出所料，这种气候更适合逆
action for bUildup. Whereas a little cluster of sideways bars in an active
势交易者，而不是突破交易者。
environment can already build up tension fairly well, a lengthy phase in
a dead market is often no more than a pointless set of price bars trading
into nothingness. Not surprisingly, such a climate sits much better with
the contrarian game than that of the breakout trader.
On the good side, no price action is ever lost on the careful observer
从好的方面来看，仔细观察者不会错过任何价格动作，即使是陈旧的亚洲时
and
even a stale Asian session can provide valuable hints and clues
段也能提供有价值的线索和提示，这些在后续中可能会有所帮助。因此，让我们
that
can be of help later on. Let us therefore establish an overview on
首先在图5.11上建立一个概述，然后再深入研究椭圆形模式突破组合的细节。
Figure 5. 1 1 first before zooming in on the details of the pattern break
combi setup in the ellipse.
Telling by the slope of the 25ema on the far left, bears were the
从25ema在最左侧的斜率来看，空头在早期亚洲时段是主导方。在随后的
dominant party in the early Asian session. In the sideways hours that
横盘时段中，多头多次尝试站稳脚跟，但他们并没有表现得很有说服力，始
followed, bulls repeatedly tried to make a stand, but they weren't very
终未能突破25ema的防线。
convincing and never really made it past the 25ema defense.
The fact that the bulls could not reclaim possession of the 25ema
多头无法重新掌控25ema是一个强烈的看跌线索。毕竟，如果这些多头连平均
was a strong bearish clue to obtain. After all, how on earth were these
线都无法保持在上方，他们又如何能推翻空头呢？看涨失败的明显标志是1、2、
bulls to topple the bears if they couldn't even stay on top of the average.
3和4的虚假高点：
Great markers of bullish failure were the false highs at 1 , 2 , 3 and 4:
1 10
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
instead of triggering follow-through on the upside, these breaks invited
bears to play short.
Since we have no way of knowing how exactly our breaks will come
about, if at all, it is best not to entertain any preset notions or prefer­
ences on the event itself. With mUltiple setups at our disposal, we can
simply sit back and see what the market has in store. For visual guid­
ance, maybe we can put in a pattern line or a box, but most of the work
is done by simply watching the bars get printed in a buildup area of
interest.
By putting in a powerful doji in pattern line support (5) , right in the
EU Open at 08:00, bulls had given it one last shot, but to little avail it
turned out. If this bar was capable at all to rekindle hope in the bullish
camp, we can imagine the next bar to have crushed all further illusions
then and there (6) . From where we stand, this was a clear sign to get
ready for combat.
In a way, we could look upon the inside bar in the ellipse as a one­
bar mini flag hanging from the powerbar pole. Note also how this tiny
bar, before closing near the bottom of its powerful neighbor, had man­
aged to put in a subtle "double" with the pattern line extension and
the 25ema. However insignificant in the bigger scheme of things, this
little upstroke had already taken care of two adverse magnets prior to
entry, meaning there was now a smaller chance for these elements to
get tested after entry.
Looking closely, this particular inside bar showed a "bullish" close,
but on such a tiny body that is not an issue of concern. We can take
position on the sell side the very moment the low of the inside bar is
taken out.
III
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
- 模式突破组合
instead of triggering follow-through on the upside, these breaks invited
这些突破并没有引发上涨的后续反应，反而吸引了空头入场做空。
bears to play short.
Since we have no way of knowing how exactly our breaks will come
由于我们无法确切知道我们的突破将如何发生，如果发生的话，最好不要对事
about,
if at all, it is best not to entertain any preset notions or prefer­
件本身抱有任何预设的想法或偏好。凭借我们手头的多种设置，我们可以简单地
ences on the event itself. With mUltiple setups at our disposal, we can
坐下来，看看市场会带来什么。为了视觉指导，也许我们可以画出一个模式线或
simply sit back and see what the market has in store. For visual guid­
一个框，但大部分工作只是观察在一个感兴趣的积累区域内打印的蜡烛图。
ance, maybe we can put in a pattern line or a box, but most of the work
is done by simply watching the bars get printed in a buildup area of
interest.
By
putting in a powerful doji in pattern line support (5) , right in the
在模式线支撑位（5）上形成了一根强有力的十字星，正好在欧盟开盘时（08:
EU Open at 08:00, bulls had given it one last shot, but to little avail it
00），多头最后一次尝试，但结果却是无济于事。如果这根蜡烛图能够重新点燃
turned out. If this bar was capable at all to rekindle hope in the bullish
多头阵营的希望，我们可以想象下一根蜡烛图当时就会粉碎所有进一步的幻想（
camp, we can imagine the next bar to have crushed all further illusions
6）。从我们目前的立场来看，这显然是一个准备迎接战斗的明确信号。
then and there (6) . From where we stand, this was a clear sign to get
ready for combat.
In a way, we could look upon the inside bar in the ellipse as a one­
在某种程度上，我们可以将椭圆内的内部柱视为悬挂在强势柱杆上的一根
bar mini flag hanging from the powerbar pole. Note also how this tiny
小型旗帜。还要注意，这根小柱在接近其强势邻居的底部之前，已经成功地与
bar, before closing near the bottom of its powerful neighbor, had man­
模式线延伸和25ema形成了一个微妙的“双重”形态。尽管在更大的背景下这显得
aged to put in a subtle "double" with the pattern line extension and
微不足道，但这小幅上升在入场前已经处理了两个不利的磁力点，这意味着在
the 25ema. However insignificant in the bigger scheme of things, this
入场后这些元素被测试的可能性更小。
little upstroke had already taken care of two adverse magnets prior to
entry, meaning there was now a smaller chance for these elements to
get tested after entry.
Looking
closely, this particular inside bar showed a "bullish" close,
仔细观察，这根特定的内部柱显示出“看涨”的收盘，但由于其身体极小，这并不
but on such a tiny body that is not an issue of concern. We can take
是一个值得担忧的问题。我们可以在内部柱的低点被突破的那一刻开始做空。
position on the sell side the very moment the low of the inside bar is
taken out.
III
Understanding Price Action
IFig 5.121
www.ProRealTime.com
eurlusd 5·minute
1.35
1 .345
OHIO
05:00
06:00
07:00
06:00
Figure 5.12 Traders familiar with Japanese candlestick analysis may
have heard the combi referred to as a Harami, a Knight-with-Cross,
or maybe a Spinning Tops setup; who knows what other fancy names
have been coined to acknowledge this very potent pattern. Of course,
the actual names are all irrelevant, and in many instances so is the pat­
tern itself.
Zooming in on the action in the chart above, we can detect a num­
ber of combis that may have been playable on a tinier scale but didn't
really set up well for anything substantial. Nimble scalpers may have
taken their chances on the breaks of combi 2 , 5 and 7, if only to extract
a handful of pip in the wake of each break. An offer to have declined
for sure, was the break of combi 3 at 4: this breakout appeared right in
the level of a previous high, quite a few pip away from the 25ema, and
suffered the adverse magnet of the round number to boot. A poisonous
combi to trade, even for a quick scalp.
To minimize the danger of getting caught in a noncompliant break,
always a mandatory routine is to monitor first how well the environment
favors the wager at hand. Prior to taking position, we should check
the pace of the market, the dominant pressures in it, the thickness of
the buildup and the presence or absence of adverse magnets and ob­
structive elements on the way to target. With a little experience, such a
checklist should take no more than a few seconds to run. But it can do
wonders for your bottom line.
Granted, the ways to perceive price action are countless and what
may seem a wholly unsavory proposition to one may very well represent
1 12
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
www.ProRealTime.com
eurlusd
IFig
5.121
图5.12
www.ProRealTime.com
eur/usd
5分钟5·minute
1.35
1 .345
OHIO
05:00
06:00
07:00
06:00
Figure熟悉日本蜡烛图分析的交易者可能听说过这种组合被称为哈拉米、骑士十字
5.12 Traders familiar with Japanese candlestick analysis may
图5.12
，或者也许是旋转顶部设置；谁知道还有什么其他花哨的名称被创造出来以承认这
have heard the combi referred to as a Harami, a Knight-with-Cross,
or maybe a Spinning Tops setup; who knows what other fancy names
个非常强大的模式。当然，实际的名称都是无关紧要的，在许多情况下，模式本身
也是如此。
have
been coined to acknowledge this very potent pattern. Of course,
the actual names are all irrelevant, and in many instances so is the pat­
tern itself.
Zooming in on the action in the chart above, we can detect a num­
放大上面图表中的动作，我们可以检测到一些可能在更小的尺度上可操作的
ber of combis that may have been playable on a tinier scale but didn't
组合，但并没有真正为任何实质性的东西做好准备。灵活的剥头皮交易者可能
really set up well for anything substantial. Nimble scalpers may have
会在组合2、5和7的突破中冒险，只是为了在每次突破后提取一些点数。一个肯
taken
their chances on the breaks of combi 2 , 5 and 7, if only to extract
定会拒绝的机会是组合3在4的突破：这个突破出现在之前高点的水平上，距离25
a handful of pip in the wake of each break. An offer to have declined
ema相当远，并且还遭受了整数关口的负面吸引力。一个有毒的组合，即使是为
for sure, was the break of combi 3 at 4: this breakout appeared right in
了快速剥头皮也不值得交易。
the level of a previous high, quite a few pip away from the 25ema, and
suffered the adverse magnet of the round number to boot. A poisonous
combi to trade, even for a quick scalp.
To minimize the danger of getting caught in a noncompliant break,
为了尽量减少在不合规突破中被抓住的危险，始终有一个强制性的例行程序，
always a mandatory routine is to monitor first how well the environment
那就是首先监测环境如何有利于当前的赌注。在采取位置之前，我们应该检查市
favors the wager at hand. Prior to taking position, we should check
场的节奏、主导压力、积累的厚度以及在达到目标的过程中是否存在不利的磁力
the pace of the market, the dominant pressures in it, the thickness of
和阻碍因素。通过一点经验，这样的检查清单应该在几秒钟内完成。但它对你的
the buildup and the presence or absence of adverse magnets and ob­
底线可以产生奇迹。
structive elements on the way to target. With a little experience, such a
checklist should take no more than a few seconds to run. But it can do
wonders for your bottom line.
Granted, the ways to perceive price action are countless and what
诚然，感知价格行为的方式是无数的，而对某些人来说，似乎完全不
may seem a wholly unsavory proposition to one may very well represent
可接受的提议可能对另一些人来说却非常有吸引力。
1 12
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
a textbook opportunity to another. While all is indeed a matter of per­
ception, there is never much reason to get caught in a very conspicuous
trap, as in the bull break at 4, or the bear break at 6.
The breaks of combi 2 , 5 , and 7, stemming from buildup, all pos­
sessed merit, yet it seems fair to have questioned whether they set up
thick enough to have anticipated a 20 pip break.
To understand the distinction between "thin" and "fat" setups, let us
compare for a moment the cluster progressions 1 -2 and 6-7 with the
buildup leading up to the combi in the ellipse (8- 1 0). The latter definitely
showed a lot more substance. Note also that prior to breaking away in
the ellipse, bulls had taken possession of the 25ema first, meaning their
buildup resided favorably on top of the average, which wasn't the case
yet at 2 and 7. Within this cluster, another interesting tell was the ag­
gressive way the bulls had responded to the bear break at 9 , which had
left a strong false low on the chart.
Since bar 10 showed up bearishly in our squeeze, it did not serve
well as a signal bar for the bull-side breakout. So we can skip the offer
above it, but we should not lose track of the action here; after all, with
the combi setup in our toolbox, it may only take one extra bar for a valid
break to set up (fire long above the inside bar in the ellipse) .
Note: If your trading hours include the UK Open (09:00 CET) and
the market sets up a solid trade right in it, don't be shy to accept. While
opening activity can be dangerously fickle, it does tend to respect a
properly built up break. As will be demonstrated in the long series of
consecutive charts in Part 2, the first decent trade of the EU/UK morn­
ing is likely to be found in and around the UK Open, when there is
usually sufficient volume being pumped around to back up the break.
However, do avoid shoddy breakouts or anything that sets up as a con­
tinuation trade in the high or low of a swing leading up to the UK Open.
These type of breaks are more likely to provoke rebellion when the first
wave of volume pours in.
1 13
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
- 图案突破组合
a textbook opportunity to another. While all is indeed a matter of per­
这是一个教科书式的机会。虽然一切确实是感知的问题，但通常没有太多理由
ception, there is never much reason to get caught in a very conspicuous
被一个非常明显的陷阱所困住，比如在4的牛市突破或在6的熊市突破。
trap, as in the bull break at 4, or the bear break at 6.
来自于积累的组合2、5和7的突破都具有一定的价值，但似乎合理地质疑它
The breaks of combi 2 , 5 , and 7, stemming from buildup, all pos­
sessed
merit, yet it seems fair to have questioned whether they set up
们是否足够厚实，以预期20点的突破。
thick enough to have anticipated a 20 pip break.
为了理解“薄”和“厚”设置之间的区别，让我们暂时比较一下集群进展1-2和6-7
To
understand the distinction between "thin" and "fat" setups, let us
compare
for a moment the cluster progressions 1 -2 and 6-7 with the
与导致椭圆形组合的积累（8-10）。后者显然显示出更多的实质性。还要注意
buildup
leading up to the combi in the ellipse (8- 1 0). The latter definitely
，在椭圆形突破之前，牛市首先占据了25ema，这意味着他们的积累有利于位
showed a lot more substance. Note also that prior to breaking away in
于均线之上，而在2和7时情况并非如此。在这个集群中，另一个有趣的迹象是
the
ellipse, bulls had taken possession of the 25ema first, meaning their
，牛市对9的熊市突破的反应非常激烈，这在图表上留下了一个强烈的假低点
buildup
resided favorably on top of the average, which wasn't the case
。
yet at 2 and 7. Within this cluster, another interesting tell was the ag­
gressive way the bulls had responded to the bear break at 9 , which had
left a strong false low on the chart.
Since bar 10 showed up bearishly in our squeeze, it did not serve
由于第10根柱在我们的挤压中出现了看跌信号，因此它并没有作为牛市突破
well as a signal bar for the bull-side breakout. So we can skip the offer
的信号柱。因此，我们可以跳过它上方的卖出机会，但我们不应忽视这里的动作
above it, but we should not lose track of the action here; after all, with
；毕竟，凭借我们工具箱中的组合设置，可能只需一根额外的柱子就能形成有效
the combi setup in our toolbox, it may only take one extra bar for a valid
的突破（在椭圆形内的内部柱上方做多）。
break to set up (fire long above the inside bar in the ellipse) .
Note: If your trading hours include the UK
Open (09:00 CET) and
注意：如果您的交易时间包括英国开盘（09:00
CET），并且市场在此时设置
the market sets up a solid trade right in it, don't be shy to accept. While
了一个稳固的交易机会，不要害羞地接受。虽然开盘活动可能非常不稳定，但
opening activity can be dangerously fickle, it does tend to respect a
它确实倾向于尊重一个良好构建的突破。正如在第2部分的一系列连续图表中将
properly
built up break. As will be demonstrated in the long series of
要展示的那样，欧盟/英国早晨的第一个不错的交易很可能会在英国开盘时找到
consecutive charts in Part 2, the first decent trade of the EU/UK morn­
，此时通常会有足够的成交量来支持突破。然而，避免劣质突破或任何在英国
is likely to be found in and around the UK Open, when there is
ing
开盘前的高点或低点形成的延续交易。这些类型的突破更可能在第一波成交量
usually
sufficient volume being pumped around to back up the break.
涌入时引发反叛。
However, do avoid shoddy breakouts or anything that sets up as a con­
tinuation trade in the high or low of a swing leading up to the UK Open.
These type of breaks are more likely to provoke rebellion when the first
wave of volume pours in.
1 13
Understanding Price Action
IFig 5,131
WtNW.ProReamme.com
eurlusd 5-minute
126
3
@ProReelTime.com
07:00
08:00
09:00
11:00
'200
Figure 5.13 Reversal formations come in many shapes and sizes but
there is one version that has earned quite a reputation for itself: the
head-and-shoulders variant. In its most textbook appearance, this pat­
tern shows a triple-arch formation standing on a horizontal or slightly
tilted pattern line, often referred to as a neckline. The arch in the middle
is the most prominent (head), but it is the shoulder on the right that
warrants the most attention. Should it start to build up pressure on
the neckline, a serious bear break may follow. As is the case with all
patterns, inverse versions are equally common. Figure 5 . 1 3 shows a
bullish variant: the triple-arch progression hanging below the pattern
line from 07:00 up to the first ellipse.
It is one thing to be able to identify these "classic" patterns, it is
quite another to trade their breaks with acceptable odds. At least two
conditions demand attention in all situations: the break of the pattern
should not be set against explicit dominant pressure, and there should
be sufficient buildup prior to the break.
To understand the dangers of unfavorable pressure, have a quick
look at the box progression on the far right, around 1 2:00. Although a
lot smaller than its more elongated counterpart hanging below, this box
represented a head-and-shoulders variant too (three arches) , but we
can immediately see why the bear break stood poor chance to succeed:
it clearly defied the dominant pressure in the chart. It's nice to know
your patterns, but without a respectful eye for the bigger picture, such
"knowledge" may do more harm than good.
Before we take up the combi setup in the first ellipse, let us briefly
1 14
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
IFi图g5.135,131
WtNW.ProReamme.com
欧元/美元
分钟
eurlusd 5 5-minute
126
3
@ProReelTime.com
07:00
08:00
09:00
11:00
'200
Figure反转形态有许多形状和大小，但有一种变体因其声誉而脱颖而出：头肩
5.13 Reversal formations come in many shapes and sizes but
图5.13
there
is
one version that has earned quite a reputation for itself: the
形态。在其最经典的外观中，这种模式显示出一个三重拱形结构，位于一个水
head-and-shoulders
variant. In its most textbook appearance, this pat­
平或略微倾斜的模式线之上，通常称为颈线。中间的拱形是最显著的（头），
tern
shows a triple-arch formation standing on a horizontal or slightly
但右侧的肩部才是最值得关注的。如果它开始对颈线施加压力，可能会出现严
tilted
pattern line, often referred to as a neckline. The arch in the middle
重的熊市突破。与所有模式一样，反向版本同样常见。图5.13展示了一个看涨
is
the most prominent (head), but it is the shoulder on the right that
的变体：三重拱形进程悬挂在从07:00到第一个椭圆的模式线下方。
warrants the most attention. Should it start to build up pressure on
the neckline, a serious bear break may follow. As is the case with all
patterns, inverse versions are equally common. Figure 5 . 1 3 shows a
bullish variant: the triple-arch progression hanging below the pattern
line from 07:00 up to the first ellipse.
It is one thing to be able to identify these "classic" patterns, it is
能够识别这些“经典”模式是一回事，而以可接受的概率交易它们的突破则是
quite another to trade their breaks with acceptable odds. At least two
另一回事。至少有两个条件在所有情况下都需要关注：模式的突破不应与明显
conditions
demand attention in all situations: the break of the pattern
的主导压力相对立，并且在突破之前应有足够的积累。
should not be set against explicit dominant pressure, and there should
be sufficient buildup prior to the break.
To understand the dangers of unfavorable pressure, have a quick
要理解不利压力的危险，快速查看右侧的箱体进展，大约在12:00。尽管它
look at the box progression on the far right, around 1 2:00. Although a
比下面悬挂的更长的对应物小得多，但这个箱体也代表了一种头肩形变体（三
lot
smaller than its more elongated counterpart hanging below, this box
个弧形），但我们可以立即看到为什么空头突破成功的机会渺茫：它明显违背
represented
a head-and-shoulders variant too (three arches) , but we
了图表中的主导压力。了解你的形态是很好的，但如果不尊重更大的图景，这
can
immediately see why the bear break stood poor chance to succeed:
种“知识”可能会造成更多的伤害。
it clearly defied the dominant pressure in the chart. It's nice to know
your patterns, but without a respectful eye for the bigger picture, such
"knowledge" may do more harm than good.
1 14
Before we take up the combi setup in the first ellipse, let us briefly
在我们讨论第一个椭圆中的组合设置之前，让我们简要
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
discuss a couple of combis of the tricky kind. Combi 1 , for example,
represented a typical bull trap, quite like combi 3 in our previous chart,
Figure 5. 1 2 . Before stepping in on a thin break like this, it may help to
ask and answer two essential questions first: (a) does this look like an
offer that many other bulls would want to accept? And (b) how demoral­
ized are the bears at this point; would they rather throw in the towel on
the break at 2 , or open up new shorts?
As always, the true answer will only be known after the fact, but we
can usually gather a fair view on the most likely outcome simply by fol­
lowing pressure, conditions and buildup.
How about the break of combi 4? Small as a combi can be, this one
possessed a little more merit. Not only was the combi favorably posi­
tioned in the base of the 25ema, it found technical footing in a small
pattern line extension. Even so, since the market had only just sprung
up from the lows, it would have been rather optimistic to have antici­
pated immediate continuation at this point. And there was overhead
resistance to deal with as well (pattern line extension of former highs) .
An offer to have declined for sure was the break of combi 5 . If we
now consider the preceding bull swing 3-5, which had come up from the
lows with little pausing on the way, this pattern breakout had all the
makings of a tease break trap.
Combi 5 did possess an interesting feature: the high of the inside bar
resided slightly higher than the high of the powerbar. This is actually
quite common in a combi setup and does not have to affect the implica­
tions of the pattern itself. The reason for declining the break was simply
the poor buildup preceding the event.
The market did manage to break out for a handful of pip (6), but
then follow-through dried up and a correction set in. On the way back,
it was only when prices had reached a 60 percent retracement of the
3-6 swing that bulls came in with more verve (7) . Note the ceiling test
bounce when the low of bar 7 hit upon the high of bar 3.
This brings us to the combi setup in the first ellipse. The powerbar
in it already betrayed the eagerness of bulls to position themselves for
the head-and-shoulders breakout. Should this bar have been broken
straightaway, however, that would have qualified as another tease (from
1 15
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
- 模式突破组合
discuss a couple of combis of the tricky kind. Combi 1 , for example,
讨论几种棘手的组合。例如，组合1代表了一个典型的牛市陷阱，类似于我们之
represented a typical bull trap, quite like combi 3 in our previous chart,
前图表中的组合3（图5.12）。在这种薄弱的突破中介入之前，先问自己两个基
Figure 5. 1 2 . Before stepping in on a thin break like this, it may help to
本问题可能会有所帮助：（a）这看起来像是许多其他多头想要接受的报价吗？
ask
and answer two essential questions first: (a) does this look like an
（b）此时空头有多沮丧；他们是宁愿在2的突破中放弃，还是愿意开设新的空
offer that many other bulls would want to accept? And (b) how demoral­
头头寸？
ized are the bears at this point; would they rather throw in the towel on
the break at 2 , or open up new shorts?
As always, the true answer will only be known after the fact, but we
和往常一样，真正的答案只有在事后才能知道，但我们通常可以通过关注
can
usually gather a fair view on the most likely outcome simply by fol­
压力、条件和积累来获得对最可能结果的合理看法。
lowing pressure, conditions and buildup.
How
about the break of combi 4? Small as a combi can be, this one
那么组合4的突破呢？虽然组合可以说是小的，但这个组合具有更多的价值。
possessed
a little more merit. Not only was the combi favorably posi­
不仅该组合在25ema的底部位置良好，而且在一个小的模式线延伸中找到了技术
tioned in the base of the 25ema, it found technical footing in a small
支撑。尽管如此，由于市场刚刚从低点反弹，因此在这一点上预期立即的持续
pattern line extension. Even so, since the market had only just sprung
上涨可能过于乐观。而且还有上方的阻力需要处理（前高的模式线延伸）。
up from the lows, it would have been rather optimistic to have antici­
pated immediate continuation at this point. And there was overhead
resistance to deal with as well (pattern line extension of former highs) .
An offer to have declined for sure was the break of combi 5 . If we
可以肯定地说，拒绝的提议是组合5的突破。如果我们现在考虑之前的牛市波动3
now
consider the preceding bull swing 3-5, which had come up from the
-5，这一波动从低点起几乎没有停顿，这一模式的突破完全具有诱饵突破陷阱的特
lows with little pausing on the way, this pattern breakout had all the
征。
makings of a tease break trap.
Combi 5 did possess an interesting feature: the high of the inside bar
组合5确实具有一个有趣的特征：内部柱的高点略高于强势柱的高点。这在
resided slightly higher than the high of the powerbar. This is actually
组合设置中实际上是相当常见的，并不影响模式本身的含义。拒绝突破的原因
quite common in a combi setup and does not have to affect the implica­
仅仅是事件前的积累不足。
tions of the pattern itself. The reason for declining the break was simply
the poor buildup preceding the event.
The market did manage to break out for a handful of pip (6), but
市场确实设法突破了几点（6），但随后跟进干涸，修正开始。在回调过程
then
follow-through dried up and a correction set in. On the way back,
中，只有当价格达到3-6波动的60%回撤时，牛市才以更大的热情介入（7）。注
it was only when prices had reached a 60 percent retracement of the
意当第7根柱的低点触及第3根柱的高点时的顶部测试反弹。
3-6 swing that bulls came in with more verve (7) . Note the ceiling test
bounce when the low of bar 7 hit upon the high of bar 3.
This brings us to the combi setup in the first ellipse. The powerbar
这使我们回到了第一个椭圆中的组合设置。它中的动力条已经暴露了多头急于
in
it already betrayed the eagerness of bulls to position themselves for
为头肩形突破做好准备的心态。然而，如果这个条形图立即被突破，那将被视为
the head-and-shoulders breakout. Should this bar have been broken
另一个诱惑（从
straightaway, however, that would have qualified as another tease (from
1 15
Understanding Price Action
where we stand) , on account of the meager buildup involved.
When considering a breakout but deeming the current buildup too
thin, always welcome is to see the market not break but instead put in
an extra bar of pre-breakout tension. In this case, the extra bar was an
inside bar and thus formed a combi setup with its powerful predeces­
sor. An added bonus here was to see both highs in the combi line up,
which set up a double-bar break.
In the meantime, the 25ema had come to support the inside bar from
below, basically turning the latter into a one-bar squeeze. With the right
shoulder of the head-and-shoulders pattern now "rounded", and prices
pushing up against a pretty straightforward neckline (ignoring the tease
breakout), it wasn't hard to locate the sweetspot of the moment. Should
we ask ourselves again whether an upside break would be reason for
concern for a bear in position, I believe it is now justified to answer that
affirmatively. Perhaps an extra bar of buildup would have been nice
(think three-bar combi), but it would have been overly prudent to de­
cline this offer. Hence the long as depicted (first arrow).
Note: As much as we all want our trades to dash for their target from
the get-go, in plenty of instances this will not be the case. Next to the
inevitable struggles right from the start, a common occurrence is to see
prices first take off nicely, only to then turn around and confiscate all
of the earlier gains (8-9). Although unpleasant to witness, it is crucial to
train your mind to withstand these mishaps gracefully without the need
to do anything silly, like bailing out at break-even to prevent the trade
from turning red. Nine times out of ten, if you cast your dread aside and
look at things neutrally, all you see is a pullback to test the validity of
rJ
the break. And frankly, if the pullback ranks so high on the wish-list
when still empty-handed on the sidelines (think pattern break pullback
setup), why be freaked out by one when already in position? Particularly
on a first correction after a fresh breakout, one of the worst things you
can do is not allow your trade a chance to recoup in a technical test.
Apart from occasionally saving yourself a full stop-out, this nervous
practice stands to abort a multitude of trades that may have otherwise
worked out. Furthermore, the 8-9 correction here was not just a test of
the breakout; it also touched upon the 25ema in a 50 percent correction
1 16
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
where we stand) , on account of the meager buildup involved.
我们所处的位置），因为涉及的积累微不足道。
When considering a breakout but deeming the current buildup too
在考虑突破但认为当前的积累太薄时，看到市场不突破而是增加一根预突破
thin, always welcome is to see the market not break but instead put in
的紧张条形图总是受欢迎的。在这种情况下，额外的条形图是一个内部条形图
an
extra bar of pre-breakout tension. In this case, the extra bar was an
，因此与其强大的前身形成了组合设置。这里的一个额外好处是看到组合线上
inside
bar and thus formed a combi setup with its powerful predeces­
的两个高点对齐，这设置了一个双条形突破。
sor. An added bonus here was to see both highs in the combi line up,
which set up a double-bar break.
In the meantime, the 25ema had come to support the inside bar from
与此同时，25ema已经成为内部柱的支撑，从下方基本上将后者变成了一
below, basically turning the latter into a one-bar squeeze. With the right
个单柱挤压。随着头肩形态的右肩现在变得“圆润”，价格逼近一个相当简单的
shoulder of the head-and-shoulders pattern now "rounded", and prices
颈线（忽略诱人的突破），很容易找到此刻的甜蜜点。如果我们再次问自己
pushing
up against a pretty straightforward neckline (ignoring the tease
，向上突破是否会让持有空头头寸的人感到担忧，我相信现在可以肯定地回
breakout),
it wasn't hard to locate the sweetspot of the moment. Should
答是的。也许多一根柱子的积累会更好（想想三柱组合），但拒绝这个机会
we
ask
ourselves
again whether an upside break would be reason for
将过于谨慎。因此，如图所示的多头（第一箭头）。
concern for a bear in position, I believe it is now justified to answer that
affirmatively. Perhaps an extra bar of buildup would have been nice
(think three-bar combi), but it would have been overly prudent to de­
cline this offer. Hence the long as depicted (first arrow).
Note: As much as we all want our trades to dash for their target from
注意：尽管我们都希望我们的交易从一开始就迅速达到目标，但在很多情况
the get-go, in plenty of instances this will not be the case. Next to the
下，情况并非如此。除了不可避免的挣扎，常见的情况是价格首先会很好地起
inevitable
struggles right from the start, a common occurrence is to see
飞，然后又回头，夺回之前的所有收益（8-9）。尽管目睹这一切令人不快，但
prices
first take off nicely, only to then turn around and confiscate all
训练自己的心态优雅地承受这些失误是至关重要的，而不是做一些愚蠢的事情
of the earlier gains (8-9). Although unpleasant to witness, it is crucial to
，比如在保本时退出，以防交易变成亏损。十有八九，如果你抛开恐惧，客观
train
your mind to withstand these mishaps gracefully without the need
地看待事情，你会发现这只是一次回调，以验证突破的有效性。坦率地说，如
to do anything silly, like bailing out at break-even to prevent the trade
果在仍然空手在场边时，回调在愿望清单上排名如此之高（想想模式突破回调
from turning red. Nine times out of ten, if you cast your dread aside and
设置），那么在已经持仓时为什么会对回调感到恐慌呢？特别是在新突破后的
look at things neutrally, all you see is a pullback to test the validity of
第一次修正中，最糟糕的事情就是不让你的交易有机会在技术测试中恢复。除
rJ
the break. And frankly, if the pullback ranks so high on the wish-list
了偶尔能让自己避免全额止损，这种紧张的做法还会中止许多本可以成功的交
when
still empty-handed on the sidelines (think pattern break pullback
易。此外，这里的8-9回调不仅是对突破的测试；它还触及了25ema，并进行了50
setup), why be freaked out by one when already in position? Particularly
%的回调。
on a first correction after a fresh breakout, one of the worst things you
can do is not allow your trade a chance to recoup in a technical test.
Apart from occasionally saving yourself a full stop-out, this nervous
practice stands to abort a multitude of trades that may have otherwise
worked out. Furthermore, the 8-9 correction here was not just a test of
the breakout; it also touched upon the 25ema in a 50 percent correction
1 16
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
of the 7-8 swing. And we all know the powerful implications of such a
bullish triple.
The second tradable combi of the session, in the ellipse on the far
right, serves well to demonstrate the resilience of a trending market, as
well as the dangers of trading against it. The first parties forced to bail
out on the bn�ak of combi 1 1 were no doubt the unfortunate bears who
had shorted the bear break of the little box a few bars earlier.
Psychologically, the bull break of combi 1 1 may have been harder
to accept than the head-and-shoulders break earlier on, if only for the
fact that the market had already rallied quite a bit and that bears had
shown themselves rather defiant above the 50-level. But if we consider
the trending slope of the 25ema, this shows us most evidently that the
market was still very strong, and thus likely to find new buyers in the
base of the average.
This particular setup holds the middle between a regular combi and
its reversed counterpart in which a powerbar comes second to the inside
bar. But the bullish implications are practically the same. Furthermore,
before closing high up and outside the pattern line, the low of combi 1 1
had found support in the high of bar 10, while touching on the round
number and the 25ema (bullish triple). A very nice setup indeed-but it
did lack the favorable magnet that was present on the earlier trade; and
not insignificant either, the break was set in the often less voluminous
lunch-hour doldrums ( 1 2 :00- 14:00). In a normally active environment,
however, as above, this is generally of minor concern and perhaps not
a good reason to skip an otherwise valid offer; in a staler climate, the
lunch-hour aspect definitely adds a con to the prospects of a continu­
ation break. Best not to worry about this for now; we will have a closer
look at the pros and cons of conditions in Chapter 7.
117
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
- 模式突破组合
of the 7-8 swing. And we all know the powerful implications of such a
在7-8的波动中。我们都知道这种情况的强大影响力。
bullish triple.
看涨的三重形态。
The
second tradable combi of the session, in the ellipse on the far
会话中的第二个可交易组合，在右侧的椭圆中，很好地展示了趋势市场的韧性，以
right, serves well to demonstrate the resilience of a trending market, as
及与之对抗交易的危险。第一个被迫在组合11突破时退出的参与者，无疑是那些在几
well as the dangers of trading against it. The first parties forced to bail
根K线之前做空小箱体的可怜的空头。
out on the bn�ak of combi 1 1 were no doubt the unfortunate bears who
had shorted the bear break of the little box a few bars earlier.
Psychologically, the bull break of combi 1 1 may have been harder
从心理上讲，组合11的牛市突破可能比之前的头肩形态突破更难以接受，部分
to accept than the head-and-shoulders break earlier on, if only for the
原因在于市场已经上涨了相当多，而空头在50水平以上表现得相当顽强。但如果我
fact that the market had already rallied quite a bit and that bears had
们考虑25日指数移动平均线的趋势斜率，这最明显地向我们展示了市场仍然非常强
shown themselves rather defiant above the 50-level. But if we consider
劲，因此很可能在平均线的底部找到新的买家。
the trending slope of the 25ema, this shows us most evidently that the
market was still very strong, and thus likely to find new buyers in the
base of the average.
This
particular setup holds the middle between a regular combi and
这个特定的形态介于常规组合和其反向对应形态之间，其中一根强势柱在内
its reversed counterpart in which a powerbar comes second to the inside
部柱之后出现。但看涨的含义几乎是相同的。此外，在高位收盘并突破形态线
bar.
But the bullish implications are practically the same. Furthermore,
之前，组合11的低点在第10根柱的高点找到了支撑，同时触及了整数关口和25
before closing high up and outside the pattern line, the low of combi 1 1
日指数移动平均线（看涨三重信号）。确实是一个非常不错的形态——但它缺
had found support in the high of bar 10, while touching on the round
乏早期交易中存在的有利吸引力；而且并不重要的是，突破发生在通常交易量
number and the 25ema (bullish triple). A very nice setup indeed-but it
较少的午餐时间（12:00-14:00）。然而，在通常活跃的环境中，如上所述，这通
did lack the favorable magnet that was present on the earlier trade; and
常是次要问题，也许不是跳过一个有效交易的好理由；在一个疲软的市场环境
not insignificant either, the break was set in the often less voluminous
中，午餐时间的因素确实为持续突破的前景增加了一个负面因素。现在最好不
lunch-hour
doldrums ( 1 2 :00- 14:00). In a normally active environment,
要担心这个；我们将在第7章更仔细地看看条件的利弊。
however, as above, this is generally of minor concern and perhaps not
a good reason to skip an otherwise valid offer; in a staler climate, the
lunch-hour aspect definitely adds a con to the prospects of a continu­
ation break. Best not to worry about this for now; we will have a closer
look at the pros and cons of conditions in Chapter 7.
117
Understanding Price Aaion
IFig 5. 141
'HW'W. ProRealTime. com
1 .36
eur/usd 5-minute
1.35
05:00
07:00
""00
10:00
11:00
Figure 5.14 Few charts better illustrate the fickle nature of a round
number fight. Prior to the pattern line's collapse, there were repeated
attempts to trade away from the 50-level center, both up and down, but
the magnet effect kept kicking in, pulling prices right back. In such an
environment, both bull and bear can get trapped multiple times if they
do not pay close attention to what the market is saying. And even more
caution is warranted when the bars start to exceed their average span
while feverishly alternating between bullish and bearish. More often
than not, this indicates a big player clash and in it, a tight stop is easily
found.
The horizontal pattern line may have had few connectors to be drawn
in nondebatable fashion, it was still a useful tool to mark the barrier be­
tween bullish and bearish territory in the early UK session. Of the four
arches standing on top, the last three had evolved into an unmistakable
head-and-shoulders progression (07 :00-09 :45) .
Before this reversal formation had fully materialized, early-bird bears
had to pay the price for stepping in too eagerly on the breaks at T and F,
a tease and false break trap respectively. The latter venture in particular
(a terribly built up break in the UK Open) was just begging for a contrari­
an whack. As to the tease (T), the price action there did contain elements
of a squeeze (a few bars caught between the pattern line and the 25ema),
but this is not the kind of buildup we should be looking to short; prices
had not tightened up below a slowly descending average, and the level of
the pattern barrier wasn't too clear either. On top of that, the "signal" bar
in question was a bullish doji (2) . Not a great short setup by any means.
1 18
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
5. 141
IFig
图 5.14
'HW'W. ProRealTime. com
1 .36
eur/usd
欧元/美元 5 5-minute
分钟
1.35
05:00
07:00
""00
10:00
11:00
Figure
5.14 Few charts better illustrate the fickle nature of a round
图
5.14 几个图表更好地说明了整数关口战斗的变化无常。在模式线崩溃之前，曾
number fight.
Prior to the pattern line's collapse, there were repeated
多次尝试在
50 水平中心上下交易，但磁铁效应不断发挥作用，将价格拉回。在这
attempts to trade away from the 50-level center, both up and down, but
样的环境中，牛市和熊市都可能多次被困，如果他们不密切关注市场的动向，风
the
magnet effect kept kicking in, pulling prices right back. In such an
险会更大。当柱状图开始超过其平均跨度，并在牛市和熊市之间疯狂交替时，通
environment, both bull and bear can get trapped multiple times if they
常意味着大玩家之间的冲突，而在这种情况下，很容易找到一个紧密的止损位。
do not pay close attention to what the market is saying. And even more
caution is warranted when the bars start to exceed their average span
while feverishly alternating between bullish and bearish. More often
than not, this indicates a big player clash and in it, a tight stop is easily
found.
The
horizontal pattern line may have had few connectors to be drawn
尽管水平模式线可能只有少数连接点可以以无可争辩的方式绘制，但它仍然
in nondebatable fashion, it was still a useful tool to mark the barrier be­
是一个有用的工具，用于标记早期英国交易时段中牛市和熊市之间的障碍。在
tween bullish and bearish territory in the early UK session. Of the four
顶部的四个拱形中，最后三个演变成了一个明显的头肩形态（07:00-09:45）。
arches standing on top, the last three had evolved into an unmistakable
head-and-shoulders progression (07 :00-09 :45) .
Before this reversal formation had fully materialized, early-bird bears
在这个反转形态完全形成之前，早期的空头因过于急于在T和F的回调中介入
had to pay the price for stepping in too eagerly on the breaks at T and F,
而付出了代价，分别是一个诱饵和一个假突破陷阱。尤其是后者（在英国开盘
a tease and false break trap respectively. The latter venture in particular
时的一个糟糕的突破）简直是在招惹反向的打击。至于诱饵（T），那里的价格
(a terribly built up break in the UK Open) was just begging for a contrari­
走势确实包含了一些挤压的元素（几根柱子夹在模式线和25ema之间），但这并
an whack. As to the tease (T), the price action there did contain elements
不是我们应该寻找的短线机会；价格并没有在一个缓慢下降的均线下方收紧，
of
a squeeze (a few bars caught between the pattern line and the 25ema),
模式障碍的水平也不够明确。此外，相关的“信号”柱是一个看涨的十字星（2）
but this is not the kind of buildup we should be looking to short; prices
。这绝不是一个好的短线设置。
had not tightened up below a slowly descending average, and the level of
the pattern barrier wasn't too clear either. On top of that, the "signal" bar
in question was a bullish doji (2) . Not a great short setup by any means.
1 18
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
On the other side of the round number, bulls suffered troubles of
their own. Each time they had come to attack the highs of the session,
they were forced to retreat almost instantaneously. Bar 3 was a double
top with 1 , and bar 4 a false high with 3 . A similar fate befell bar 6 when
it came to take out the high of 4. But was it any wonder? Look how
poorly built up these bull attacks on the highs were deployed.
If a single former high or low can already form a technical magnet,
then range barriers can do so even more. It is therefore not just the
breakout trader who runs a risk of getting trapped in a false break
event; any player who trades within the range with a protective stop a
little outside of it can get trapped in equal fashion. Consider the pre­
dicament of a bull who had "safely" placed his stop a few pip below the
low of T. And what about a bear who had placed his stop above the high
of 3 or 4. The message is clear: when the action shows a high degree of
fickleness, it is best not to pick sides until things truly build up.
Seen in this light, the bull break of combi 5 was best left alone, and
so was the bear break of combi 7, although of better quality in terms of
pressure.
Taking into account the length of breakout swing 6-8, pullback 8-9
was just too shallow a correction for bar 9 to set up a valid pattern
break pullback short. Not only would the break below this bar offer an
entry far removed from the 25ema, lurking above was a ceiling test mag­
net with the low of combi 7, if not a round number test a few pip higher
up. Whenever there are conspicuous adverse magnets still on the radar,
traders may be less willing to play the turn of a pullback in fear of the
correction not having run its full course yet. This is why it is so prefer­
able to have these magnets "out of the way" prior to taking position, the
25ema touch in particular.
From 1 0:00 to 1 1 :00, the market formed what can be referred to as
a bear-flag variant (flag 8- 1 2 hanging bearishly from the pole 6-8). So,
not only had the bulls to weather the implications of the broken head­
and-shoulders formation, now adding to their troubles was the danger
of a pole-flag-swing situation: the flag breakout could trigger a response
equal to the span of the 6-8 swing. And the almost tangible pull of the
big 1 .35 level certainly didn't help their cause much either.
1 19
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups - 模式突破组合
Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
On the other side of the round number, bulls suffered troubles of
在这个整数关口的另一侧，多头也遭遇了自己的麻烦。每次他们试图攻击当日
their own. Each time they had come to attack the highs of the session,
的高点时，几乎都被迫瞬间撤退。柱3是一个与柱1的双顶，而柱4则是一个与柱3的
they were forced to retreat almost instantaneously. Bar 3 was a double
假高点。当柱6试图突破柱4的高点时，也遭遇了类似的命运。但这有什么奇怪的呢
top with 1 , and bar 4 a false high with 3 . A similar fate befell bar 6 when
？看看这些多头攻击高点的部署是多么糟糕。
it came to take out the high of 4. But was it any wonder? Look how
poorly built up these bull attacks on the highs were deployed.
If a single former high or low can already form a technical magnet,
如果单个前高或前低已经能够形成技术磁铁，那么区间障碍就更能做到这
then
range barriers can do so even more. It is therefore not just the
一点。因此，不仅仅是突破交易者面临被困在虚假突破事件中的风险；任何在
breakout
trader who runs a risk of getting trapped in a false break
区间内交易并在其外稍微放置保护止损的交易者也可能以同样的方式被困住。
event; any player who trades within the range with a protective stop a
想象一下，一位牛市交易者将止损“安全”地放在T的低点下方几点的境地。而一
little outside of it can get trapped in equal fashion. Consider the pre­
位熊市交易者则将止损放在3或4的高点上方。信息很明确：当市场表现出高度
dicament of a bull who had "safely" placed his stop a few pip below the
的反复无常时，最好在事情真正积累之前不要选择立场。
low of T. And what about a bear who had placed his stop above the high
of 3 or 4. The message is clear: when the action shows a high degree of
fickleness, it is best not to pick sides until things truly build up.
Seen in this light, the bull break of combi 5 was best left alone, and
从这个角度来看，组合5的牛市突破最好还是放弃，而组合7的熊市突破虽然在压力方
so was the bear break of combi 7, although of better quality in terms of
面质量更好，但也应如此。
pressure.
Taking into account the length of breakout swing 6-8, pullback 8-9
考虑到突破摆动6-8的长度，回调8-9对于第9根K线来说只是一个过于浅显的
was just too shallow a correction for bar 9 to set up a valid pattern
修正，无法形成有效的模式突破回调空头。不仅如此，突破该K线以下将提供
break
pullback short. Not only would the break below this bar offer an
一个远离25ema的入场点，而在其上方则有一个低点测试的磁铁，组合7的低点
entry far removed from the 25ema, lurking above was a ceiling test mag­
，如果不算更高几点的整数关口的话。每当有明显的不利磁铁仍在雷达上时，
net
with the low of combi 7, if not a round number test a few pip higher
交易者可能会因为担心修正尚未完全结束而不愿意参与回调的反转。这就是为
up.
Whenever there are conspicuous adverse magnets still on the radar,
什么在采取仓位之前最好将这些磁铁“清除”出路，尤其是25ema的触及。
traders may be less willing to play the turn of a pullback in fear of the
correction not having run its full course yet. This is why it is so prefer­
able to have these magnets "out of the way" prior to taking position, the
25ema touch in particular.
From 1 0:00 to 1 1 :00, the market formed what can be referred to as
从10:00到11:00，市场形成了可以称为熊旗变体的形态（旗帜8-12在杆6-8上方熊
a bear-flag variant (flag 8- 1 2 hanging bearishly from the pole 6-8). So,
市悬挂）。因此，牛市不仅要承受破裂的头肩形态的影响，现在还要面对杆旗摆
not only had the bulls to weather the implications of the broken head­
动的危险：旗帜突破可能会引发与6-8摆动幅度相等的反应。而大1.35水平的几乎可
and-shoulders formation, now adding to their troubles was the danger
感知的吸引力无疑也没有帮助他们的局面。
of a pole-flag-swing situation: the flag breakout could trigger a response
equal to the span of the 6-8 swing. And the almost tangible pull of the
big 1 .35 level certainly didn't help their cause much either.
1 19
Understanding Price Action
Considering the nature of their predicament, we do have to give the
bulls some credit for standing up to the bears below the broken head­
and-shoulders. In an act of utter rebellion, they had even successfully
fended off the OO-level magnet by hammering out a double bottom of
sorts (8- 1 0) . But alas, this only provided the bears with more economi­
cal levels to short from. As a result, prices never put in that ceiling test
with the low of combi 7, and they never made it to the 25ema.
As much as the bearish dominance was evident, the activity within
the flag didn't really build up in a very compressed fashion as seen
in some of our earlier flag break examples. Nor was the flag line itself
of very fine quality (arbitrarily drawn) . In most such instances, when
sticking to conservative tactics, this would render participation invalid.
On occasion, however, the odds for follow-through on a certain break
can appear attractive enough to justifiably deviate from standard op­
erating procedure. But do take heed that this is best applied sparingly
and with appropriate attention for detail.
As to the prospects of the flag breakout, I believe a little aggression
here was called for. Granted, the 25ema had yet to be properly tested,
but with no less than four consecutive bearish dojis building up tension
in the flag (combis 1 1 and 12), it is fair to deduce that the bullish defi­
ance was wearing awfully thin. Think of it this way: if you were a bull in
position, would you sit tight and hope for the best below combi 1 2-or
would you gracefully accept defeat and get out of the way?
Conservative traders can of course skip, but it's hard to argue with a
bear for taking a chance on a short like this. As it turned out, the very
moment combi 1 2 was broken, the pole-flag-swing principle kicked in
with not a contrarian bull in sight. It's just an outcome, though.
120
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Considering the nature of their predicament, we do have to give the
考虑到他们的困境，我们确实要给予牛市一些赞誉，因为他们在破裂的头肩
bulls
some credit for standing up to the bears below the broken head­
形态下仍然坚守在熊市之下。作为一种彻底的反叛，他们甚至成功地通过锤击
and-shoulders. In an act of utter rebellion, they had even successfully
出一种双底（8-10）来抵御00水平的吸引力。但可惜的是，这只为熊市提供了更
fended off the OO-level magnet by hammering out a double bottom of
多的经济做空水平。因此，价格从未进行那次与组合7的低点测试，也未能达到2
sorts (8- 1 0) . But alas, this only provided the bears with more economi­
5ema。
cal levels to short from. As a result, prices never put in that ceiling test
with the low of combi 7, and they never made it to the 25ema.
As much as the bearish dominance was evident, the activity within
尽管看跌的主导地位显而易见，但在旗形内的活动并没有像我们早期的旗
the flag didn't really build up in a very compressed fashion as seen
形突破示例那样以非常压缩的方式建立起来。旗形线本身的质量也不是很好（
in
some of our earlier flag break examples. Nor was the flag line itself
随意绘制）。在大多数情况下，遵循保守的策略会使参与变得无效。然而，有
of
very fine quality (arbitrarily drawn) . In most such instances, when
时，某个突破的后续机会看起来足够吸引人，以至于可以合理地偏离标准操作
sticking to conservative tactics, this would render participation invalid.
程序。但请注意，这种做法最好是谨慎应用，并适当关注细节。
On occasion, however, the odds for follow-through on a certain break
can appear attractive enough to justifiably deviate from standard op­
erating procedure. But do take heed that this is best applied sparingly
and with appropriate attention for detail.
As to the prospects of the flag breakout, I believe a little aggression
至于旗形突破的前景，我认为在这里需要一点攻击性。诚然，25ema尚未得
here
was called for. Granted, the 25ema had yet to be properly tested,
到适当测试，但在旗形中有不少于四个连续的看跌十字星（组合11和12）积累
but with no less than four consecutive bearish dojis building up tension
了紧张情绪，因此可以合理推断，看涨的抵抗力已经变得相当薄弱。想象一下
in the flag (combis 1 1 and 12), it is fair to deduce that the bullish defi­
：如果你是一名持有多头头寸的投资者，你会在组合12下静静等待，寄希望于
ance was wearing awfully thin. Think of it this way: if you were a bull in
最好的结果，还是会优雅地接受失败并退出？
position, would you sit tight and hope for the best below combi 1 2-or
would you gracefully accept defeat and get out of the way?
Conservative traders can of course skip, but it's hard to argue with a
保守的交易者当然可以跳过，但很难反驳做空这样的机会。事实证明，当组
bear
for taking a chance on a short like this. As it turned out, the very
合12被突破的那一刻，极限旗杆摆动原则开始发挥作用，周围没有一个反向的
moment combi 1 2 was broken, the pole-flag-swing principle kicked in
多头。这只是一个结果而已。
with not a contrarian bull in sight. It's just an outcome, though.
120
Chapter 5
IFig 5 15!
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
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11:00
1200
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Figure 5.1 5 Squeeze progression 1 -2 may have favored the buy side, it
still needed volunteers from the bullish camp to initiate the break. As
tliis failed to come forth, bears had tried to take over at 3, but with little
to show for it in the end. During the forming of progression 3-4, bulls
had slowly managed to take control of the situation again, demoralizing
bears and building up tension while at it.
The break above bar 4 represents a valid pattern break entry, but let
us assume to have missed it for whatever reason. This means we would
now have to follow the coming action closely to see if we could possibly
catch our ride on the bandwagon still. For this purpose, we have at
our disposal the pattern break pullback setup and its equally powerful
cousin, the pattern break cambi.
It took 45 minutes, nine bars, for a combi setup to show up (ellipse).
If we take into account that the combi appeared at the end of a pullback
to pattern line support, this qualified as a pattern break pullback setup,
too. Of course, it is totally irrelevant how we name our setups.
In a way, the market's initial response to the break above bar 4
couldn't have been more textbook. First there was the pop towards the
round number magnet (5), then a little stalling in that level for a hand­
ful of bars, followed by a pullback to the pattern line extension. On
arrival, the low of bar 7 had hit upon the 25ema while correcting about
60 percent of the breakout swing 4-5 (triple) . How many times have we
not seen similar post-breakout activity.
By running a line across the highs of the pullback, we can see that
when the combi was added, the blocky features of the 5-6 cluster had
121
Trade Setups - 模式突破组合
Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
Chapter 5
第五章
IFi图5.15
g 5 15!
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Figure压缩进程1-2可能偏向买方，但仍然需要来自多头阵营的志愿者来发起突
5.1 5 Squeeze progression 1 -2 may have favored the buy side, it
图5.15
still needed volunteers from the bullish camp to initiate the break. As
破。由于这一点未能实现，空头在3点时试图接管，但最终几乎没有什么成果。
tliis
failed to come forth, bears had tried to take over at 3, but with little
在进程3-4形成的过程中，多头慢慢地重新控制了局势，打击了空头的士气，同
to
show for it in the end. During the forming of progression 3-4, bulls
时也在积累紧张情绪。
had slowly managed to take control of the situation again, demoralizing
bears and building up tension while at it.
The break above bar 4 represents a valid pattern break entry, but let
突破第4根柱子以上的价格代表了一个有效的模式突破入场，但让我们假设由
us
assume to have missed it for whatever reason. This means we would
于某种原因错过了这个机会。这意味着我们需要密切关注接下来的走势，以便看
now have to follow the coming action closely to see if we could possibly
看我们是否还有可能搭上这班车。为此，我们可以利用模式突破回调设置及其同
catch
our ride on the bandwagon still. For this purpose, we have at
样强大的兄弟，模式突破组合。
our disposal the pattern break pullback setup and its equally powerful
cousin, the pattern break cambi.
It took 45 minutes, nine bars, for a combi setup to show up (ellipse).
花了45分钟，九根柱子，才出现一个组合设置（椭圆）。如果考虑到组合出
If we take into account that the combi appeared at the end of a pullback
现在回调到模式线支撑的末尾，这也符合模式突破回调设置的条件。当然，我
to pattern line support, this qualified as a pattern break pullback setup,
们如何命名我们的设置完全无关紧要。
too. Of course, it is totally irrelevant how we name our setups.
In a way, the market's initial response to the break above bar 4
在某种程度上，市场对突破第4根柱子的初始反应简直是教科书式的。首先
couldn't
have been more textbook. First there was the pop towards the
是向圆整数字磁铁（5）的一次上涨，然后在该水平上停滞了几根柱子，接着
round
number magnet (5), then a little stalling in that level for a hand­
是对模式线延伸的回调。当到达时，第7根柱子的低点恰好触及25ema，同时纠
ful of bars, followed by a pullback to the pattern line extension. On
正了突破波段4-5的约60%（三重）。我们有多少次没有看到类似的突破后活动
arrival, the low of bar 7 had hit upon the 25ema while correcting about
。
60 percent of the breakout swing 4-5 (triple) . How many times have we
not seen similar post-breakout activity.
By running a line across the highs of the pullback, we can see that
通过在回调的高点之间画一条线，我们可以看到当组合被添加时，5-6集群的
when the combi was added, the blocky features of the 5-6 cluster had
块状特征已经
121
Understanding Price Aaion
transformed into a more angular-shaped flag formation. This illustrates
a concept that we have touched upon in an earlier discussion: the form­
ing of a small flag outside the boundary of a bigger pattern. Should this
smaller flag be broken as well, this shows a failure of contrarians to
undo the break of the bigger pattern and thus sends out a strong con­
tinuation message.
Note: Not all traders adhere to the breakout strategy. A very popular
play is to buy or sell straight into a technical test. For instance, side­
line bulls may have liked the outlook enough to already have bought
themselves in on the low of bar 7 the very moment it touched upon the
triple. This tactic differs strongly from our own but is not necessarily
without merit. In fact, in this particular case one could argue that if an
entry above bar 4 was valid but missed, the breakout trader, too, could
now pick up an entry in the low of bar 7, so as to correct the mishap
of missing his break at no extra cost. Although it is hard to battle the
logic within this reasoning, any entry is always best judged in the light
of the current circumstances. In that respect, before progressing into
a flag pattern, the 5-6 cluster had shown the bearish features of an
M-pattern middle-part. Therefore, for us to have bought the low of bar
7 would have been in defiance of this bear block development. So yes,
it can sometimes prove beneficial to have missed an entry on first go:
instead of being positioned in a noncompliant trade, we are offered a
chance to re-evaluate the situation from the safety of the sidelines. (In
the long run, of course, missing our breaks will surely backfire.) But
this then brings up another issue. What to do in bar 7 when already in
position on the initial break above bar 4? After all, by declining entry in
bar 7, we basically suggest that the original bull wager above bar 4 had
lost validity. And that implies that we should have scratched the trade
below bar 6. Frankly, that may indeed have been a valid option, but we
will look at this in more detail in Chapter 6 on Manual Exits.
To summarize on the above, if the market shoots away from a missed
break and no immediate second instance entries are offered (like a mini
pullback in the entry bar itself, or maybe in the bar after) , the best way
to deal with the mishap is to simply accept that it happened and not
look upon it as something that needs to be corrected. Just regard the
122
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
转变为更具角度的旗形结构。这说明了我们在早期讨论中提到的一个概念：在更
transformed into a more angular-shaped flag formation. This illustrates
a concept that we have touched upon in an earlier discussion: the form­
大模式的边界之外形成一个小旗形。如果这个小旗形也被突破，这表明反向交易
ing
of a small flag outside the boundary of a bigger pattern. Should this
者未能逆转更大模式的突破，从而发出强烈的持续信号。
smaller flag be broken as well, this shows a failure of contrarians to
undo the break of the bigger pattern and thus sends out a strong con­
tinuation message.
注意：并非所有交易者都遵循突破策略。一种非常流行的做法是直接在技术
Note: Not all traders adhere to the breakout strategy. A very popular
play is to buy or sell straight into a technical test. For instance, side­
测试中买入或卖出。例如，旁观的多头可能对前景足够看好，以至于在第7根柱
line bulls may have liked the outlook enough to already have bought
子触及三重底时立即买入。这种策略与我们自己的策略有很大不同，但并不一
themselves in on the low of bar 7 the very moment it touched upon the
定没有价值。事实上，在这种特定情况下，可以说如果在第4根柱子上方的入场
triple. This tactic differs strongly from our own but is not necessarily
有效但错过了，突破交易者也可以在第7根柱子的低点重新入场，以纠正错过突
without merit. In fact, in this particular case one could argue that if an
破的失误，而没有额外的成本。尽管很难反驳这种逻辑，但任何入场都应在当
entry above bar 4 was valid but missed, the breakout trader, too, could
前情况下进行最佳判断。在这方面，在进入旗形模式之前，5-6集群显示出M形
now
pick up an entry in the low of bar 7, so as to correct the mishap
中间部分的看跌特征。因此，对于我们来说，在第7根柱子的低点买入将是对这
of
missing
his break at no extra cost. Although it is hard to battle the
一看跌区块发展的违抗。因此，是的，有时错过第一次入场可能会带来好处：
logic within this reasoning, any entry is always best judged in the light
我们没有被置于一个不合规的交易中，而是有机会从安全的旁观者角度重新评
of the current circumstances. In that respect, before progressing into
估情况。（从长远来看，当然，错过突破肯定会反噬。）但这又引出了另一个
a flag pattern, the 5-6 cluster had shown the bearish features of an
问题。当我们已经在第4根柱子上方的初始突破中持仓时，在第7根柱子该怎么
M-pattern middle-part. Therefore, for us to have bought the low of bar
办？毕竟，拒绝在第7根柱子入场，基本上意味着我们暗示第4根柱子上方的原
7 would have been in defiance of this bear block development. So yes,
始多头赌注失去了有效性。这意味着我们应该在第6根柱子下方平仓。坦率地说
it can sometimes prove beneficial to have missed an entry on first go:
，这确实可能是一个有效的选择，但我们将在第6章关于手动退出的部分更详细
instead
of being positioned in a noncompliant trade, we are offered a
地讨论这一点。
chance to re-evaluate the situation from the safety of the sidelines. (In
the long run, of course, missing our breaks will surely backfire.) But
this then brings up another issue. What to do in bar 7 when already in
position on the initial break above bar 4? After all, by declining entry in
bar 7, we basically suggest that the original bull wager above bar 4 had
lost validity. And that implies that we should have scratched the trade
below bar 6. Frankly, that may indeed have been a valid option, but we
will look at this in more detail in Chapter 6 on Manual Exits.
To summarize on the above, if the market shoots away from a missed
总而言之，如果市场在突破失败后迅速远离，并且没有立即提供第二次入场机
break and no immediate second instance entries are offered (like a mini
会（例如入场K线本身的小幅回调，或者在之后的K线中），那么处理这种失误的
pullback
in the entry bar itself, or maybe in the bar after) , the best way
最佳方式就是接受它已经发生，不要把它看作是需要纠正的事情。只需以中立的
to deal with the mishap is to simply accept that it happened and not
眼光再次看待
look upon it as something that needs to be corrected. Just regard the
122
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pattern Break Combi
situation with neutral eyes again and take it from there.
As we can see, when a blocky pullback is not that extensive (5-6) ,
it may only take a few extra bars to transform it into a continuation
progression (5-ellipse). The combi in the ellipse was reversed, meaning
the "powerbar" came second to the inside bar, but such order does not
affect the implications of the setup itself (enter long above it) .
Was it an option to already have taken position above the first bar of
the combi, the bullish inside bar? Opinions may differ, but that would
have set up the break quite thinly; although residing in the pleasant
support of the 25ema and the pattern line extension, that little bar was
the first to defy the blocky pattern overhead, and not too intimidating
at that; not a great marker of bullish enthusiasm yet. With the doji bar
added, the situation had definitely changed for the better. Notice also
that this bar had first taken out the inside bar at the bottom, only to
turn around and close high up (false low). Always a favorable element
when thinking long.
About an hour later there appeared another interesting combi setup,
a three-bar variant (9- 1 0) . The two inside bars following powerbar 9 set
themselves up outside of a broken flag progression (8-9), while building
up tension towards another bullish pop. In strict technical terms these
bars were not really inside bars (sticking out a bit), but they did build
up tension and set up a nice double-bar break. But what about the sur­
rounding conditions? Were they as favorable as they had been on the
first combi trade?
To answer this, let's start out by comparing the technical support
underneath this setup with that of the earlier combi on the left. Imme­
diately we can see a major difference in backup. The combi in the ellipse
rested on the fat cluster of progression 1 -4, while being guided along
by the 25ema. Beneath the three-bar combi 9- 1 0, on the other hand,
there was no support to be found, at least not within the range of our
stop. Instead there were two adverse magnets that stood good chance
to meddle with the trade: the 25ema about 1 2 pip below entry and the
DO-level a few pip further south. A touch on the latter was certainly not
unthinkable considering the fact that the number had been broken ear­
lier on but not yet tested back.
123
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pattern Break Combi
交易设置
- 模式突破组合
situation with neutral eyes again and take it from there.
情况，然后从那里开始。
As we can see, when a blocky pullback is not that extensive (5-6) ,
正如我们所见，当一个块状回调不是那么广泛（5-6）时，它可能只需要几
it
may only take a few extra bars to transform it into a continuation
个额外的K线就可以将其转化为延续进展（5-椭圆）。椭圆中的组合被颠倒了
progression
(5-ellipse). The combi in the ellipse was reversed, meaning
，这意味着“力量K线”排在内包K线之后，但这种顺序并不影响设置本身的含义
the "powerbar" came second to the inside bar, but such order does not
（在它上方做多）。
affect the implications of the setup itself (enter long above it) .
Was it an option to already have taken position above the first bar of
在组合的第一个柱子，即看涨的内部柱子上方提前建立头寸是否是一个选项
the combi, the bullish inside bar? Opinions may differ, but that would
？意见可能会有所不同，但这将使突破的设置变得相当薄弱；尽管位于25ema和
have set up the break quite thinly; although residing in the pleasant
模式线延伸的良好支撑之上，但那根小柱子是第一个挑战上方块状模式的，并
support of the 25ema and the pattern line extension, that little bar was
且并不太令人畏惧；还不是一个很好的看涨热情的标志。随着十字星柱的加入
the first to defy the blocky pattern overhead, and not too intimidating
，情况确实变得更好。还要注意，这根柱子首先击穿了底部的内部柱子，然后
at
that; not a great marker of bullish enthusiasm yet. With the doji bar
又转身高位收盘（虚假低点）。在考虑做多时，这总是一个有利的因素。
added, the situation had definitely changed for the better. Notice also
that this bar had first taken out the inside bar at the bottom, only to
turn around and close high up (false low). Always a favorable element
when thinking long.
About an hour later there appeared another interesting combi setup,
大约一个小时后，出现了另一个有趣的组合设置，一个三柱变体（9-10）。紧
a
three-bar variant (9- 1 0) . The two inside bars following powerbar 9 set
随强势柱9的两个内部柱子设置在一个破裂的旗形进程（8-9）之外，同时为另一
themselves up outside of a broken flag progression (8-9), while building
个看涨的爆发积累了张力。从严格的技术角度来看，这些柱子并不完全是内部柱
up tension towards another bullish pop. In strict technical terms these
子（稍微突出了一点），但它们确实积累了张力，并设置了一个不错的双柱突破
bars were not really inside bars (sticking out a bit), but they did build
。但是周围的条件呢？它们是否像第一次组合交易时那样有利？
up tension and set up a nice double-bar break. But what about the sur­
rounding conditions? Were they as favorable as they had been on the
first combi trade?
To answer this, let's start out by comparing the technical support
为了回答这个问题，我们先来比较一下这个设置下的技术支持与左侧早期组
underneath
this setup with that of the earlier combi on the left. Imme­
合的技术支持。我们可以立即看到备份方面的一个重大差异。椭圆形中的组合
diately we can see a major difference in backup. The combi in the ellipse
依赖于1-4的肥胖进展集群，同时受到25ema的引导。而在三条组合9-10下方，根
rested on the fat cluster of progression 1 -4, while being guided along
本找不到支持，至少在我们的止损范围内没有。相反，有两个不利的磁铁很有
by the 25ema. Beneath the three-bar combi 9- 1 0, on the other hand,
可能干扰交易：入场点下方约12个点的25ema，以及更南边几点的00水平。考虑
there was no support to be found, at least not within the range of our
到该数字早些时候已经被突破但尚未回测，触及后者显然并非不可能。
stop. Instead there were two adverse magnets that stood good chance
to meddle with the trade: the 25ema about 1 2 pip below entry and the
DO-level a few pip further south. A touch on the latter was certainly not
unthinkable considering the fact that the number had been broken ear­
lier on but not yet tested back.
123
Understanding Price Action
But there was another issue of concern and telling enough to skip
the trade altogether. Looking closely, we can see that the break in bar
1 1 was presented right at 14:30 CET, which is the time of major US
news releases, if on the agenda (one hour before the US stock markets
open) . By the look of that huge bar, it is safe to deduce that this particu­
lar bull spike had come about as a result of such a release. It takes little
time in the markets for any trader to understand that these events can
really tear the technical picture apart, and cause great slippage on both
entry and stop. (We will take up the news report issue in more detail in
Chapter 6.)
The high of the news spike nearly touched the 50-level magnet ( 1 1 ) ,
but then the notorious counterstrike set in and down the market went
again, taking out every bull brave or silly enough to stand in its path.
The drop did not halt until prices had exhausted themselves in the
earlier highs of progression 1 -4, which again acted as support ( 1 2). As
it turned out, the low of bar 1 2 matched the low of bar 7 to the pip: a
good spot for a happy bear to cash in his windfall profits from the mini
crash, or for an aggressive bull to take his chances on a bounce away
from support (not recommended) .
Next up was a bull/bear skirmish that bore all the makings of a
bear-flag hanging from the news spike flagpole 1 1 - 1 2. A flag line un­
derneath this progression was easily found and turned out to be well
respected until there was virtually no more room left for another bar to
get printed in the pattern. During flag formation, there were several bull
attempts to break away from the bearish grip, of which bar 1 3 was the
most notable failure (false high in a squeeze).
It is quite common for a combi to set up a break from a squeeze
progression (second ellipse). Note that the inside bar, our signal bar,
showed a bullish body, which isn't preferable when aiming short; but
on such a tiny bar, that is hardly an issue of concern.
Even so, it should be noted that this trade, too, was not of the same
quality as our first combi long. The trade on the long side could boast
of excellent support and really had the market's pressure working in its
favor. The flag break on the short side was more a result of a midsession
change in environment, which in turn was initiated by a news spike
124
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
But there was another issue of concern and telling enough to skip
但还有另一个值得关注的问题，足以让我们完全跳过这笔交易。仔细观察，
the trade altogether. Looking closely, weCET，这正是美国重大新闻发布的时
can see that the break in bar
我们可以看到第11根柱的突破恰好出现在14:30
1 1 was presented right at 14:30 CET, which is the time of major US
间（在美国股市开盘前一小时）。从那根巨大的柱子来看，可以安全地推断出这
news releases, if on the agenda (one hour before the US stock markets
次特别的牛市尖峰是由于这样的发布造成的。在市场上，任何交易者都很快会明
open) . By the look of that huge bar, it is safe to deduce that this particu­
白，这些事件真的可以撕裂技术图景，并在入场和止损时造成巨大的滑点。（我
lar
bull spike had come about as a result of such a release. It takes little
们将在第6章中更详细地讨论新闻报告问题。）
time in the markets for any trader to understand that these events can
really tear the technical picture apart, and cause great slippage on both
entry and stop. (We will take up the news report issue in more detail in
Chapter 6.)
The high of the news spike nearly touched the 50-level magnet ( 1 1 ) ,
新闻激增的高点几乎触及了50的磁力线（11），但随后臭名昭著的反击开始
but then the notorious counterstrike set in and down the market went
了，市场随之下跌，击溃了每一个勇敢或愚蠢到敢于站在其路径上的多头。下跌
again, taking out every bull brave or silly enough to stand in its path.
直到价格在1-4的早期高点耗尽自己时才停止，这些高点再次作为支撑（12）。结
The
drop did not halt until prices had exhausted themselves in the
果，12号柱的低点与7号柱的低点完全一致：这是一个让快乐的空头兑现其小型
earlier highs of progression 1 -4, which again acted as support ( 1 2). As
崩盘利润的好时机，或者是一个激进的多头冒险从支撑位反弹（不推荐）。
it turned out, the low of bar 1 2 matched the low of bar 7 to the pip: a
good spot for a happy bear to cash in his windfall profits from the mini
crash, or for an aggressive bull to take his chances on a bounce away
from support (not recommended) .
Next up was a bull/bear skirmish that bore all the makings of a
接下来是一场多头与空头的冲突，具备了从新闻激增的旗杆11-12悬挂的空头
bear-flag
hanging from the news spike flagpole 1 1 - 1 2. A flag line un­
旗帜的所有特征。在这个进程下方很容易找到一条旗帜线，并且在几乎没有更多
derneath this progression was easily found and turned out to be well
空间让另一个柱子在模式中打印的情况下，这条线得到了很好的尊重。在旗帜形
respected until there was virtually no more room left for another bar to
成期间，有几次多头尝试摆脱空头的控制，其中13号柱是最显著的失败（在挤压
get printed in the pattern. During flag formation, there were several bull
中出现的虚假高点）。
attempts to break away from the bearish grip, of which bar 1 3 was the
most notable failure (false high in a squeeze).
It
is quite common for a combi to set up a break from a squeeze
在挤压进程（第二个椭圆）中，组合设置突破是相当常见的。请注意，内部
progression (second ellipse). Note that the inside bar, our signal bar,
柱，即我们的信号柱，显示出一个看涨的实体，这在短期交易时并不理想；但
showed a bullish body, which isn't preferable when aiming short; but
在如此小的柱子上，这几乎不成问题。
on such a tiny bar, that is hardly an issue of concern.
Even so, it should be noted that this trade, too, was not of the same
即便如此，值得注意的是，这笔交易的质量也不如我们第一次的组合多头交易
quality as our first combi long. The trade on the long side could boast
。多头交易可以自豪地拥有出色的支撑，并且市场的压力确实在其有利。短期交
of
excellent support and really had the market's pressure working in its
易的旗形突破更多是由于中场环境的变化，而这种变化又是由新闻冲击引发的。
favor. The flag break on the short side was more a result of a midsession
change in environment, which in turn was initiated by a news spike
124
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
collapse. Not the most exemplary conditions for a continuation bet. But
then again, we do not necessarily need the best possible odds to justify
participation, reasonable odds can do equally well. Seen in this light,
the bear-flag breakout is probably worth a shot-one winner pays for
two failures. Such optimistic reasoning, however, is best not applied
when dealing with a news break event, simply because the maximum
risk on the trade cannot be guaranteed (adverse spike potential). Hence
the earlier skip above bar 10.
Pullback Reversal
Given the abundance of seesaw motions in any chart, it is no wonder
that pullback reversal strategies rank high on the list of popular trading
techniques. However interesting the general premise involved, aspiring
traders would do well not to think of these tactics too lightly. Always a
reason for caution is the contrarian element within. For even when the
reversal itself is traded in line with the dominant pressure, there is still
the pressure of the pullback to reverse.
Pullbacks come in many shapes and sizes, but all can be classified
into one of two categories: they are either a correction in price or in time.
In the time variety, the puliback often resembles a horizontal or slightly
tilted flag. In many such cases we can trade the "reversal" as if dealing
with a regular pattern break setup (or a variant of it).
The correction in price is usually more diagonally shaped. To qualify
as a reversal candidate, this type of pullback should correct about 50
to 60 percent of the dominant swing. (In a very strong trend, 40 percent
might do, provided the turn sets up well.)
But rather than measuring the amount of retracement in absolute
terms, perhaps an even better marker is to wait for the correction to
reach the 25ema first, preferably even perforate it a bit, and then look
for a turn. In fact, adhering to this one filter alone may already prevent
the majority of pullback reversal traps.
It gets even better if, prior to turning around, the correction manages
to put in a test with an element of support or resistance, like a pattern
125
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
collapse.
Not the most exemplary conditions for a continuation bet. But
崩溃。对于继续下注来说，这并不是最理想的条件。但话又说回来，我们并不
then
again, we do not necessarily need the best possible odds to justify
一定需要最佳的赔率来证明参与的合理性，合理的赔率同样可以做到。从这个
participation,
reasonable odds can do equally well. Seen in this light,
角度来看，熊旗突破可能值得一试——一个赢家可以弥补两个失败。然而，这
the
bear-flag
breakout
is probably worth a shot-one winner pays for
种乐观的推理在处理新闻突发事件时最好不要应用，因为交易的最大风险无法
two
failures. Such optimistic reasoning, however, is best not applied
保证（不利的价格波动潜力）。因此，之前在第10根柱子上跳过的情况。
when dealing with a news break event, simply because the maximum
risk on the trade cannot be guaranteed (adverse spike potential). Hence
the earlier skip above bar 10.
回调反转
Pullback Reversal
Given the abundance of seesaw motions in any chart, it is no wonder
鉴于任何图表中都存在大量的波动，回调反转策略在流行交易技术中排名靠前也
that
pullback reversal strategies rank high on the list of popular trading
就不足为奇了。尽管一般前提很有趣，但有志于交易的投资者最好不要轻视这些
techniques.
However interesting the general premise involved, aspiring
战术。始终要谨慎的原因在于其中的逆势因素。即使反转本身是与主导压力一致
traders would do well not to think of these tactics too lightly. Always a
进行交易，回调的压力仍然会反转。
reason for caution is the contrarian element within. For even when the
reversal itself is traded in line with the dominant pressure, there is still
the pressure of the pullback to reverse.
Pullbacks come in many shapes and sizes, but all can be classified
回调有多种形状和大小，但所有回调都可以归类为两种类型：它们要么是
into one of two categories: they are either a correction in price or in time.
价格的修正，要么是时间的修正。在时间类型的回调中，回调通常类似于水平
In the time variety, the puliback often resembles a horizontal or slightly
或稍微倾斜的旗形。在许多情况下，我们可以将“反转”视为处理常规模式突破
tilted
flag. In many such cases we can trade the "reversal" as if dealing
设置（或其变体）一样进行交易。
with a regular pattern break setup (or a variant of it).
The correction in price is usually more diagonally shaped. To qualify
价格修正通常呈现出更为对角的形状。要符合反转候选的条件，这种类型
as
a reversal candidate, this type of pullback should correct about 50
的回调应修正约50%到60%的主导波动。（在非常强劲的趋势中，40%可能就足
to
60 percent of the dominant swing. (In a very strong trend, 40 percent
够了，前提是转折设置良好。）
might do, provided the turn sets up well.)
But
rather than measuring the amount of retracement in absolute
但与其用绝对值来测量回撤的幅度，不如等待修正首先达到25ema，最好甚
terms, perhaps an even better marker is to wait for the correction to
至稍微穿透一下，然后再寻找转折。事实上，仅仅遵循这一条过滤条件可能就
reach the 25ema first, preferably even perforate it a bit, and then look
能防止大多数回调反转陷阱。
for a turn. In fact, adhering to this one filter alone may already prevent
the majority of pullback reversal traps.
It gets even better if, prior to turning around, the correction manages
如果在转身之前，修正能够在一个支撑或阻力的元素上进行测试，比如一个
to put in a test with an element of support or resistance, like a pattern
模式，情况会更好。
125
Understanding Price Action
line extension, a ceiling test, a previous high or low in the dominant
swing, or even a round number level.
Our standard entry on the pullback reversal is taken on the break of
a signal bar, too. This bar may represent the high or low of the pullback
itself (one-bar turnaround), but probably more common is for the an­
ticipated turn to show at least a few bars of pushing and pulling before
the pullback appears to be ready to "roll over".
It should be noted that the specifications listed above are best seen
as guidelines with which to gauge the ripeness of the correction and the
readiness of the turn. Reversal tactics are always a function of the big­
ger picture and best applied accordingly.
wwwProRealTime.com
eurlusd 5-minute
IFig 5.161
1 .36
3
9
18:00
19:00
2<>00
21:00
23:00
29
Figure 5.16 In earlier discussions we touched briefly upon the virtues
of proportion in the trend/ pullback relation. We can refer to it as the
harmony principle. Although somewhat prone to personal interpreta­
tion, within it there are quite a few elements present that can be put
to good use without much room for debate. A first sign of harmony,
and rather easy to detect, is a favorable degree of retracement. Another
thing to monitor is the way the bars in the pullback get printed. They
do not have to be all white or all black, but their average span should
not exceed that of the bars in the dominant swing. On balance, the best
reversal candidate is a pullback that appears to travel almost "reluc­
tantly" against the dominant pressure.
To estimate the percentage of reversal, it is best to start out with the
point from where the latest dominant swing took off ( 1 ) . In this manner,
126
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
line extension, a ceiling test, a previous high or low in the dominant
线延伸、天花板测试、主导波段的前高或前低，甚至是一个整数关口。
swing, or even a round number level.
Our standard entry on the pullback reversal is taken on the break of
我们在回调反转时的标准入场是在信号柱突破时进行的。这个柱子可能代
a
signal
bar, too. This bar may represent the high or low of the pullback
表回调本身的高点或低点（单柱反转），但更常见的是，预期的转折会在回
itself
(one-bar turnaround), but probably more common is for the an­
调出现准备“翻转”之前显示出至少几根柱子的推拉。
ticipated turn to show at least a few bars of pushing and pulling before
the pullback appears to be ready to "roll over".
It should be noted that the specifications listed above are best seen
需要注意的是，上述规格最好视为指导方针，以评估修正的成熟度和转折
as
guidelines with which to gauge the ripeness of the correction and the
的准备情况。反转策略始终是更大图景的一个函数，最好相应地应用。
readiness of the turn. Reversal tactics are always a function of the big­
ger picture and best applied accordingly.
www.ProRealTime.com
欧元/美元eurlusd
5分钟 5-minute
www
ProRealTime.com
5.161
IFig
图 5.16
1 .36
3
9
18:00
19:00
2<>00
21:00
23:00
29
Figure在之前的讨论中，我们简要提到了趋势/回调关系中比例的优点。我们可
5.16 In earlier discussions we touched briefly upon the virtues
图5.16
of
proportion in the trend/ pullback relation. We can refer to it as the
以将其称为和谐原则。尽管在某种程度上容易受到个人解读的影响，但其中有
harmony
principle. Although somewhat prone to personal interpreta­
许多元素可以在没有太多争议的情况下加以利用。和谐的第一个迹象，且相对
tion, within it there are quite a few elements present that can be put
容易检测，是一个有利的回撤幅度。另一个需要监测的方面是回调中蜡烛图的
to good use without much room for debate. A first sign of harmony,
打印方式。它们不必全部是白色或黑色，但它们的平均跨度不应超过主导波段
and
rather easy to detect, is a favorable degree of retracement. Another
的蜡烛图的跨度。总体而言，最佳的反转候选是一个看起来几乎“勉强”逆势而
thing
to monitor is the way the bars in the pullback get printed. They
行的回调。
do not have to be all white or all black, but their average span should
not exceed that of the bars in the dominant swing. On balance, the best
reversal candidate is a pullback that appears to travel almost "reluc­
tantly" against the dominant pressure.
To estimate the percentage of reversal, it is best to start out with the
为了估计反转的百分比，最好从最新的主导波动开始的点（1）入手。通过
point from where the latest dominant swing took off ( 1 ) . In this manner,
这种方式，
126
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
pullback 3-6 had retraced about 50 percent of 1 -3; and so had pullback
9 - 1 0 in relation to the 7-9 swing. This picture demonstrates also why
the 25ema is such a great average to plot in the 5-minute chart; in a
relatively calm trend, it tends to "lag behind" just enough for a pullback
to collide with it prior to reversing.
Take note of the bear trap below bar 5. At least four reasons come
to mind why this mini break did not deserve entry signal status: (a) the
break was directed against the pressure of a little bull block to the left
(4); (b) it went up against the resistance of a pullback line; (c) the 25ema
had not been properly tested (no buildup in the turn) ; and (d) no techni­
cal tests were hit upon in the high of the pullback yet.
None of this may have called for aggression on the buy side, but
these were valid reasons to lay low on the sell side.
Equally poisonous was the perforation of the pullback line a few pip
further south. When aiming for a reversal, it is crucial to realize that
the pullback will possibly do everything in its power to postpone, if not
fully fend off, the moment of the turn. This is why we see so many false
turnarounds on first try; rather than stepping out of the way on the
initial break, contrarians tend to come in again to take advantage of the
pullback's temporary weakness. If only for this reason, a broken pull­
back line, by itself, does not make for the most reliable of entry signals,
and even less so when the correction has yet to run into an element of
support or resistance.
As to the latter, the more conspicuous this obstructive element the
better, but even the high or low of a seemingly insignificant bar could
do. For example, in bear swing 1 -3, bar 2 represented a tiny one-bar
"hiccup" in the downtrend, essentially a bullish reversal attempt that
had failed. Insignificant as this may have appeared at the time of occur­
rence, ultimately it was this bar's low to which the high of the pullback
was drawn (high of 6 tests low of 2).
As we know, when a 50/60 percent correction meets up with a trend­
ing 25ema and a technical test (triple), things always get interesting.
Any moment now, plenty of reversal strategies could spring to life, and
as a consequence, contrarian parties may be forced to bail out (double­
pressure potential) .
127
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups - 回调反转
Pullback Reversal
交易设置
pullback 3-6 had retraced about 50 percent of 1 -3; and so had pullback
回调3-6已经回撤了1-3的约50%；回调9-10也同样相对于7-9的波动。这幅图也展
9 - 1 0 in relation to the 7-9 swing. This picture demonstrates also why
示了为什么25ema在5分钟图表中是如此出色的平均线；在相对平静的趋势中，
the 25ema is such a great average to plot in the 5-minute chart; in a
它往往“滞后”得刚好足够，以便在反转之前，回调与其相碰。
relatively calm trend, it tends to "lag behind" just enough for a pullback
to collide with it prior to reversing.
Take note of the bear trap below bar 5. At least four reasons come
请注意第5条下方的熊市陷阱。至少有四个理由让我认为这个小的突破不值
to mind why this mini break did not deserve entry signal status: (a) the
得作为入场信号：（a）这个突破是针对左侧小牛市阻力的压力而进行的（4）
break
was directed against the pressure of a little bull block to the left
；（b）它是对回调线的阻力的挑战；（c）25ema尚未得到适当测试（转折处没
(4); (b) it went up against the resistance of a pullback line; (c) the 25ema
有积累）；（d）在回调的高点上尚未触及任何技术测试。
had not been properly tested (no buildup in the turn) ; and (d) no techni­
cal tests were hit upon in the high of the pullback yet.
None of this may have called for aggression on the buy side, but
虽然这些都可能不需要在买方采取激进的行动，但这些都是在卖方保持低调
these were valid reasons to lay low on the sell side.
的有效理由。
Equally poisonous was the perforation of the pullback line a few pip
同样有害的是在更南边几点的回调线被穿透。当目标是反转时，必须意识到
further south. When aiming for a reversal, it is crucial to realize that
回调可能会竭尽所能地推迟，甚至完全阻止转折的时刻。这就是为什么我们在第
the pullback will possibly do everything in its power to postpone, if not
一次尝试时会看到如此多的虚假反转；相反，逆势者往往会再次进场，以利用回
fully fend off, the moment of the turn. This is why we see so many false
调的暂时弱点。仅仅因为这个原因，破裂的回调线本身并不是最可靠的入场信号
turnarounds
on first try; rather than stepping out of the way on the
，尤其是在修正尚未遇到支撑或阻力的情况下。
initial break, contrarians tend to come in again to take advantage of the
pullback's temporary weakness. If only for this reason, a broken pull­
back line, by itself, does not make for the most reliable of entry signals,
and even less so when the correction has yet to run into an element of
support or resistance.
As to the latter, the more conspicuous this obstructive element the
至于后者，这种阻碍因素越明显越好，但即使是一个看似微不足道的柱子的
better,
but even the high or low of a seemingly insignificant bar could
高点或低点也可以起到作用。例如，在熊市波动1-3中，柱子2代表了下跌趋势中
do. For example, in bear swing 1 -3, bar 2 represented a tiny one-bar
的一个微小的单柱“颠簸”，本质上是一次失败的看涨反转尝试。尽管在发生时这
"hiccup"
in the downtrend, essentially a bullish reversal attempt that
看起来微不足道，但最终正是这个柱子的低点吸引了回调的高点（6的高点测试2
had failed. Insignificant as this may have appeared at the time of occur­
的低点）。
rence, ultimately it was this bar's low to which the high of the pullback
was drawn (high of 6 tests low of 2).
As we know, when a 50/60 percent correction meets up with a trend­
正如我们所知，当50/60%的回调与一个趋势向上的25ema和一个技术测试（
ing
25ema and a technical test (triple), things always get interesting.
三重测试）相遇时，事情总是变得有趣。随时可能会出现许多反转策略，因此
Any moment now, plenty of reversal strategies could spring to life, and
，逆势方可能被迫退出（双重压力潜力）。
as a consequence, contrarian parties may be forced to bail out (double­
pressure potential) .
127
Understanding Price Action
It took three bars in the high of the pullback to set up the turn in
tradable fashion (6-7) . Technically seen, this was also a pattern break
combi setup. Even though both the powerbar and inside bar of combi
7 were equally nondescript, their timing and placing were superb; and
the equal lows allowed us to short from a double-bar break. Note also
the favorable 50-level magnet about 25 pip below. This was a high-odds
reversal setup in all respects (could even qualify as a pattern break
pullback setup) .
Another element that contributed favorably to the prospects of the
reversal was the fact that this was the first pullback to defy the 1 -3
breakout. Subsequent corrections can still set up a tradable turn (as
shown in this chart also), but the first pullback to hit upon the 25ema
in a newborn dominant swing is generally the one most eagerly coun­
tered.
About an hour later, the second pullback showed strong similarities
with the first. Once again the correction had retraced about 50 percent
of the dominant swing, and in the top there appeared another technical
test with a former "hiccup" on the left (high of bar 1 0 hit upon bar 8).
Perhaps a ceiling test with the lows of combi 7 may have represented a
more notable magnet, but that would have required a serious breach of
the 25ema and a near full retracement of the 7-9 swing. This pullback
was fine as it was, and thus a reversal candidate.
Bar 1 1 was the first bearish bar to show up in the highs of the cor­
rection. Was it equally poisonous, as a signal bar, as bar 5 had been
earlier on?
Let's examine the pros first: (a) the pullback had corrected about 50
percent of the 7-9 swing; (b) prices had pierced the 25ema a bit and
then were stalling in it, building up pressure while at it; (c) the pullback
line was already broken and could not block the path; (d) bar 1 1 was a
bearish turnaround bar and set up favorably close to the average (no
adverse magnet) ; (e); the high of the correction had put in a technical
test with bar 8; (f) the market was still in bearish mode.
On the downside, bar 1 1 was a very modest turnaround bar in rela­
tion to the relative strength of the bullish pullback, and also the first
bearish bar to show up in the turn (not necessarily a deal-breaker,
128
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
It
took three bars in the high of the pullback to set up the turn in
在回调的高点上花了三根柱子来以可交易的方式设置转折（6-7）。从技术
tradable
fashion (6-7) . Technically seen, this was also a pattern break
上看，这也是一个模式突破组合设置。尽管组合7的强势柱和内部柱都同样不
combi setup. Even though both the powerbar and inside bar of combi
起眼，但它们的时机和位置都非常出色；而且相等的低点使我们能够从双柱突
7 were equally nondescript, their timing and placing were superb; and
破中做空。还要注意，约25点下方的50水平磁铁。这在各方面都是一个高概率
the equal lows allowed us to short from a double-bar break. Note also
的反转设置（甚至可以算作一个模式突破回调设置）。
the favorable 50-level magnet about 25 pip below. This was a high-odds
reversal setup in all respects (could even qualify as a pattern break
pullback setup) .
逆转前景的另一个有利因素是，这是第一次回调反抗1-3突破。后续的修正仍然
Another element that contributed favorably to the prospects of the
reversal was the fact that this was the first pullback to defy the 1 -3
可以设置可交易的转折（如图中所示），但第一次回调触及25ema时，通常是最受
breakout.
Subsequent corrections can still set up a tradable turn (as
欢迎的反击目标，因为它是一个新生的主导波动。
shown in this chart also), but the first pullback to hit upon the 25ema
in a newborn dominant swing is generally the one most eagerly coun­
tered.
About an hour later, the second pullback showed strong similarities
大约一个小时后，第二次回调与第一次显示出强烈的相似性。再次修正大约
with the first. Once again the correction had retraced about 50 percent
回撤了主导波动的50%，而在顶部出现了另一个技术测试，前面有一个“颠簸”在
of the dominant swing, and in the top there appeared another technical
左侧（第10根柱的高点触及第8根柱）。也许组合7的低点测试可能代表了一个更
test with a former "hiccup" on the left (high of bar 1 0 hit upon bar 8).
显著的磁力，但这需要对25ema进行严重突破，并几乎完全回撤7-9波动。这次回
Perhaps
a ceiling test with the lows of combi 7 may have represented a
调就这样很好，因此是一个反转候选。
more notable magnet, but that would have required a serious breach of
the 25ema and a near full retracement of the 7-9 swing. This pullback
was fine as it was, and thus a reversal candidate.
Bar 1 1 was the first bearish bar to show up in the highs of the cor­
第11根柱是修正高点出现的第一根看跌柱。它作为信号柱是否和之前的第5根柱一
rection. Was it equally poisonous, as a signal bar, as bar 5 had been
样有毒？
earlier on?
Let's examine the pros first: (a) the pullback had corrected about 50
首先让我们来看看优点：（a）回调已经修正了7-9波动的约50%；（b）价
percent of the 7-9 swing; (b) prices had pierced the 25ema a bit and
格稍微穿透了25ema，然后在其中停滞，积累压力；（c）回调线已经被打破，
then
were stalling in it, building up pressure while at it; (c) the pullback
无法阻挡路径；（d）第11根柱是看跌的反转柱，并且设置在平均值附近（没
line was already broken and could not block the path; (d) bar 1 1 was a
有不利的吸引力）；（e）修正的高点与第8根柱进行了技术测试；（f）市场
bearish
turnaround bar and set up favorably close to the average (no
仍然处于看跌模式。
adverse magnet) ; (e); the high of the correction had put in a technical
test with bar 8; (f) the market was still in bearish mode.
On the downside, bar 1 1 was a very modest turnaround bar in rela­
在缺点方面，第11根柱相对于看涨回调的相对强度来说是一个非常温和的反
tion
to the relative strength of the bullish pullback, and also the first
转柱，并且也是在转折中出现的第一根看跌柱（这不一定是一个致命的缺陷，
bearish bar to show up in the turn (not necessarily a deal-breaker,
128
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
though). And the pullback itself was the second to appear against the
bearish pressure. To a very conservative bear these elements may have
raised a little red flag still.
At the risk of missing the turn completely, always an option is to
wait for one or more bars to bring more clarity about. Should bar 1 1
have been discarded as a signal bar, bar 1 2 would have made for a good
replacement. Following the earlier break of bar 1 1 , this was the second
break in the turn to favor the bears. In countless turnaround situa­
tions, it is the second break that triggers the desired double-pressure
response.
Note: To understand the advantage of a second break over a first, we
could look upon the turn in a bullish pullback as an M-pattern variant.
(And upon the turn of a bearish pullback as a W-pattern variant.) To
visualize this, simply track the price action from the start of the pull­
back to the start of the second turn. For example, in a bullish pullback,
the action first goes up to reach the 25ema, then goes down on a first
break, then goes up again in defiance of this break, and then goes down
again (second break) . That is an M-pattern turn.
129
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
though). And the pullback itself was the second to appear against the
尽管如此，回调本身是对抗熊市压力出现的第二次。对于非常保守的空头来说，
bearish pressure. To a very conservative bear these elements may have
这些因素可能会引起一些小的警觉。
raised a little red flag still.
At the risk of missing the turn completely, always an option is to
冒着完全错过转折的风险，始终可以选择等待一根或多根K线以带来更多的清晰度
wait for one or more bars to bring more clarity about. Should bar 1 1
。如果第11根K线被视为信号K线而被丢弃，第12根K线将是一个很好的替代品。在第11
have been discarded as a signal bar, bar 1 2 would have made for a good
根K线的早期突破之后，这是转折中第二次突破，倾向于支持空头。在无数的反转情
replacement. Following the earlier break of bar 1 1 , this was the second
况下，正是第二次突破触发了所需的双重压力反应。
break in the turn to favor the bears. In countless turnaround situa­
tions, it is the second break that triggers the desired double-pressure
response.
Note: To understand the advantage of a second break over a first, we
注意：为了理解第二次突破相对于第一次突破的优势，我们可以将牛市回
could look upon the turn in a bullish pullback as an M-pattern variant.
调中的转折视为M形态变体（而将熊市回调的转折视为W形态变体）。要可视
(And upon the turn of a bearish pullback as a W-pattern variant.) To
化这一点，只需跟踪从回调开始到第二次转折开始的价格走势。例如，在牛市
visualize
this, simply track the price action from the start of the pull­
回调中，价格首先上涨到达25ema，然后在第一次突破时下跌，接着再次上涨
back to the start of the second turn. For example, in a bullish pullback,
以违抗这一突破，然后再次下跌（第二次突破）。这就是M形态转折。
the action first goes up to reach the 25ema, then goes down on a first
break, then goes up again in defiance of this break, and then goes down
again (second break) . That is an M-pattern turn.
129
Understanding Price Action
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Figure 5.1 7 Next to the dominant pressure, another thing to assess in
pullback reversal tactics, and no less significant, is whether the mar­
ket is currently trending or ranging. A pullback reversal that needs to
surpass the barrier of a range to get to target is likely to meet more op­
position. The session above shows reversals of either kind.
The trend variant came about as a consequence of the 3-4 correction.
This pullback was diagonal and orderly (black bars only) , had retraced
about 50 percent of the 1 -3 swing and was the first to reach the 25ema
since the break of the box in the left hand corner. Since the foregoing
turn at 2 had been rather swift on our 5-minute, the chart failed to pro­
vide a textbook ceiling test (no floor to bounce off) , but the 3-4 pullback
had found support nonetheless, which formed a higher bottom. The
indisputable pullback line was a welcome bonus too, and so was the
lovely combi setup squeezed tight beneath it (5).
A nonfavorable element may have been the adverse magnet of the
OO-level; although the lows at 2 had come real close, the actual test
was still left open. However, with both the environment and the set­
up speaking in favor of continuation, this was of minor concern only
and certainly not disruptive enough to skip the trade (enter long on the
break of combi 5) .
How about the 7-9 retracement. This was another pullback to the
trending 25ema, but we can immediately see that the conditions in
which it showed up were not nearly as favorable. First of all, the pro­
gression was not a neat, one-sided diagonal retracement to the average
(the bullish upstroke at 8 had turned the pullback into a two-legged
130
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
.--::c---r-----,
欧元/美元 5-minute
5 分钟
eur/usd
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!Fi图5.17
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Figure除了主导压力外，在回调反转策略中，另一个需要评估的重要因素是市
5.1 7 Next to the dominant pressure, another thing to assess in
图5.17
pullback reversal tactics, and no less significant, is whether the mar­
场当前是处于趋势中还是区间内。需要突破区间障碍才能达到目标的回调反转
ket
is currently trending or ranging. A pullback reversal that needs to
，可能会遇到更多的阻力。上面的会话展示了两种反转的情况。
surpass the barrier of a range to get to target is likely to meet more op­
position. The session above shows reversals of either kind.
The trend variant came about as a consequence of the 3-4 correction.
趋势变体是由于3-4修正而产生的。这次回调是对角线的、有序的（仅黑色条
This
pullback was diagonal and orderly (black bars only) , had retraced
），回撤了1-3波动的约50%，并且是自左上角箱体突破以来首次达到25ema。由于
about 50 percent of the 1 -3 swing and was the first to reach the 25ema
前面的转折在我们的5分钟图上相当迅速，图表未能提供教科书式的天花板测试
since the break of the box in the left hand corner. Since the foregoing
（没有地板可供反弹），但3-4回调仍然找到了支撑，形成了一个更高的底部。无
turn at 2 had been rather swift on our 5-minute, the chart failed to pro­
可争议的回调线也是一个受欢迎的额外收获，紧挨着它的可爱组合设置（5）也
vide a textbook ceiling test (no floor to bounce off) , but the 3-4 pullback
是如此。
had found support nonetheless, which formed a higher bottom. The
indisputable pullback line was a welcome bonus too, and so was the
lovely combi setup squeezed tight beneath it (5).
A nonfavorable element may have been the adverse magnet of the
一个不利的因素可能是00级的逆磁场；尽管在2的低点非常接近，但实际测试
OO-level; although the lows at 2 had come real close, the actual test
仍然悬而未决。然而，考虑到环境和设置都支持继续，这只是一个小问题，当然
was still left open. However, with both the environment and the set­
不足以跳过交易（在组合5突破时做多）。
up speaking in favor of continuation, this was of minor concern only
and certainly not disruptive enough to skip the trade (enter long on the
break of combi 5) .
How about the 7-9 retracement. This was another pullback to the
那么7-9的回撤呢。这是另一个回调到趋势25ema，但我们可以立即看到它
trending
25ema, but we can immediately see that the conditions in
出现的条件并不那么有利。首先，进程并不是一个整齐的单边对平均值的对
which
it showed up were not nearly as favorable. First of all, the pro­
角回撤（在8的看涨上升将回调变成了一个双腿摆动），
gression was not a neat, one-sided diagonal retracement to the average
(the bullish upstroke at 8 had turned the pullback into a two-legged
130
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
swing) , but more worrisome was the fact that the correction was now
part of a head-and-shoulders topping formation (6-7-8) . As a matter of
fact, the neckline of this progression (low of the box) was broken by the
very same bar that treacherously posed itself as a signal bar for a pull­
back reversal long (9).
When we have both bearish and bullish elements in place (reversal
element in a trending market), the general consensus on the situation
is likely to be divided. A problem this is not, because we do not have to
trade. Nine times out of ten, the best side is neither short nor long, but
outside of the market (skip bull entry above bar 9).
But how about pullback 1 1 - 1 2 . This retracement wasn't as gentle as
the 3-4 correction earlier on, but when compared to the powerful bear
rally before it ( 10- 1 1 ) , the countercharge wasn't overly aggressive and
as such may have qualified as a reversal candidate. However, there was
a good reason also to decline the offer below bar 1 2 : the surrounding
conditions were unsupportive.
If we solely concentrate on the bear rally preceding the pullback,
the trend was unmistakably down and maybe there was more of this to
come. Yet if we zoom out to address the bigger picture, we can see that
prices were actually residing in the lower part of a much wider range.
In fact, the low of bar 1 1 , a spot-on round number test, represented a
double bottom with the low of the box on the left. In other words, even
though the collapse of the earlier bull trend was beyond dispute, with
prices now in the lower region of a range this was not the best environ­
ment to look for bearish continuation. To better understand the dangers
involved, let us briefly recall the typical forces in play in the lower region
of a range: bears take profits, sideline bears stay away and contrarian
bulls might come in any moment.
This is not to suggest that we cannot trade a pullback reversal within
a range, but we do have to be more picky about it. particularly when
prices plummet straight down from the top of the range to the bottom
(7 - 1 1 , or 1 0- 1 1 , if you wish) , we definitely shouldn't be too eager to play
for more continuation near the lows.
While nimble scalpers may have been able to extract some quick
profits in the turn below bar 1 2 , or thereabouts, powerbar 1 3 depicts a
/3/
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups - 回调反转
Pullback Reversal
交易设置
swing) , but more worrisome was the fact that the correction was now
但更令人担忧的是，修正现在是一个头肩顶形态的一部分（6-7-8）。事实上，
part of a head-and-shoulders topping formation (6-7-8) . As a matter of
这一进程的颈线（箱子的低点）被同一根条形图打破，而这根条形图却狡猾地
fact, the neckline of this progression (low of the box) was broken by the
伪装成了一个回调反转做多的信号条（9）。
very same bar that treacherously posed itself as a signal bar for a pull­
back reversal long (9).
When we have both bearish and bullish elements in place (reversal
当我们在一个趋势市场中同时拥有看跌和看涨的因素（反转元素）时，关于
element
in a trending market), the general consensus on the situation
这种情况的普遍共识可能会出现分歧。这并不是问题，因为我们不必交易。十
is
likely to be divided. A problem this is not, because we do not have to
有八九，最佳的选择既不是做空也不是做多，而是远离市场（跳过第9根柱子的
trade. Nine times out of ten, the best side is neither short nor long, but
看涨入场）。
outside of the market (skip bull entry above bar 9).
But how about pullback 1 1 - 1 2 . This retracement wasn't as gentle as
但是第11-12根柱子的回调呢？这次回撤并不像之前的3-4根柱子的修正那样温
the 3-4 correction earlier on, but when compared to the powerful bear
和，但与之前的强劲看跌反弹（10-11）相比，反击并没有过于激进，因此可能被
rally before it ( 10- 1 1 ) , the countercharge wasn't overly aggressive and
视为反转候选。然而，拒绝在第12根柱子下方入场的理由也很充分：周围的条件
as such may have qualified as a reversal candidate. However, there was
并不支持。
a good reason also to decline the offer below bar 1 2 : the surrounding
conditions were unsupportive.
If we solely concentrate on the bear rally preceding the pullback,
如果我们仅仅集中在回调前的看跌反弹上，趋势无疑是向下的，也许还有更
the trend was unmistakably down and maybe there was more of this to
多的下行空间。然而，如果我们放大视角来看更大的图景，我们可以看到价格实
come. Yet if we zoom out to address the bigger picture, we can see that
际上处于一个更宽广区间的下部。事实上，第11根柱子的低点，恰好是一个整数
prices were actually residing in the lower part of a much wider range.
测试，代表了与左侧箱体低点的双底。换句话说，尽管早期看涨趋势的崩溃无可
In
fact, the low of bar 1 1 , a spot-on round number test, represented a
争议，但由于价格现在处于区间的下部，这并不是寻找看跌延续的最佳环境。为
double bottom with the low of the box on the left. In other words, even
了更好地理解其中的风险，让我们简要回顾一下在区间下部典型的力量：看跌者
though the collapse of the earlier bull trend was beyond dispute, with
获利了结，观望的看跌者保持距离，而反向看涨者可能随时进场。
prices now in the lower region of a range this was not the best environ­
ment to look for bearish continuation. To better understand the dangers
involved, let us briefly recall the typical forces in play in the lower region
of a range: bears take profits, sideline bears stay away and contrarian
bulls might come in any moment.
This is not to suggest that we cannot trade a pullback reversal within
这并不是说我们不能在区间内交易回调反转，但我们确实需要更加挑剔。特别
a range, but we do have to be more picky about it. particularly when
是当价格从区间顶部直线下跌到底部（7-11，或者10-11，如果你愿意的话），我们
prices plummet straight down from the top of the range to the bottom
绝对不应该在低点附近过于急于追求更多的延续。
(7 - 1 1 , or 1 0- 1 1 , if you wish) , we definitely shouldn't be too eager to play
for more continuation near the lows.
While nimble scalpers may have been able to extract some quick
虽然灵活的短线交易者可能在第12根柱子下方的转折点提取了一些快速利润
profits
in the turn below bar 1 2 , or thereabouts, powerbar 1 3 depicts a
，但第13根强势柱子描绘了一个
/3/
Understanding Price Action
perfect example of the dangers involved. Granted, this trap scenario is
not unthinkable even in the best of reversal breakouts, but it is all the
more common in a nonfavorable environment, and with the pullback
already not the prettiest to begin with.
For future purposes, it is recommended to examine for a moment
how this trap came about. Note that contrarian parties didn't immedi­
ately come out to counter the bearish intentions below bar 1 2 . Instead,
bears were "allowed" to enter the ring and even enjoy some follow­
through on the way to their 50-level magnet: so far, all quiet on the
southern front. Until suddenly, somewhere around the halfway mark
of the 1 1 - 1 2 swing (very typical) , contrarians came in full throttle with a
merciless powerbar that singlehandedly set the stage for the upcoming
bull-side reversal ( 1 3) .
D o realize, though, that such a powerbar is never solely a marker
of contrarian prowess; bears, too, will have contributed to the nature
of it, as they toppled over one another in their hurried flight for safety
(double pressure) . Particularly in the lows or high of a range, this flight
potential of fellow participants is always a serious concern and thus a
good reason to practice caution rather than bravery.
If all of the above still raises some questions as to the validity of the
skip below bar 1 2 , in Chapter 7 we will dig into the matter of unfavor­
able conditions more deeply; and there will be countless more examples
of pullback situations, both tradable and non-tradable, in the chapters
ahead. For now, as a rule of thumb, if the pullback itself is already not
of the most exemplary kind, and the conditions for follow-through at
least questionable to some extent, by all means just skip the trade. For
all your time and effort in the markets, reward yourself with high-odds
wagers only, rather than throwing yourself too eagerly at the mercy of
the market's fickle whims.
An event that shouldn't have raised any questions at all as to the
proper cause of action is the pullback reversal offer above bar 1 6 . You
don't even have to assess whether the market is trending or ranging to
decline a trade like this. Whenever these extraordinary tall bars show
up ( 1 3- 1 4 and 1 4- 1 5), things are indeed out of the ordinary and for this
132
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
perfect example of the dangers involved. Granted, this trap scenario is
完美的危险示例。诚然，这种陷阱情景即使在最佳的反转突破中也并非不可想象
not unthinkable even in the best of reversal breakouts, but it is all the
，但在不利的环境中，这种情况更为常见，而回调本身也并不漂亮。
more common in a nonfavorable environment, and with the pullback
already not the prettiest to begin with.
For future purposes, it is recommended to examine for a moment
为了未来的目的，建议花一点时间来检查这个陷阱是如何产生的。注意，反
how
this trap came about. Note that contrarian parties didn't immedi­
向交易者并没有立即出来对抗第12根柱子下方的看跌意图。相反，空头被“允许”
ately come out to counter the bearish intentions below bar 1 2 . Instead,
进入市场，甚至在他们的50级磁铁的路上享受了一些跟进：到目前为止，南方战
bears were "allowed" to enter the ring and even enjoy some follow­
线一片安静。直到突然，在11-12波动的中途某个地方（非常典型），反向交易者
through on the way to their 50-level magnet: so far, all quiet on the
全力出击，凭借一根无情的强势柱子单枪匹马为即将到来的多头反转（13）奠定
southern
了基础。 front. Until suddenly, somewhere around the halfway mark
of the 1 1 - 1 2 swing (very typical) , contrarians came in full throttle with a
merciless powerbar that singlehandedly set the stage for the upcoming
bull-side reversal ( 1 3) .
D o realize, though, that such a powerbar is never solely a marker
请意识到，这样的力量条从来不仅仅是反向能力的标志；熊市也会对其性
of
contrarian prowess; bears, too, will have contributed to the nature
质产生影响，因为它们在急于寻找安全的过程中相互推倒（双重压力）。特
of
it, as they toppled over one another in their hurried flight for safety
别是在区间的低点或高点，其他参与者的逃离潜力始终是一个严重的担忧，
(double pressure) . Particularly in the lows or high of a range, this flight
因此这是一个谨慎而非勇敢的好理由。
potential of fellow participants is always a serious concern and thus a
good reason to practice caution rather than bravery.
If
all of the above still raises some questions as to the validity of the
如果以上所有内容仍然对第12条下方的跳过有效性提出了一些疑问，在第7章
skip below bar 1 2 , in Chapter 7 we will dig into the matter of unfavor­
中我们将更深入地探讨不利条件的问题；在接下来的章节中将有无数个可交易和
able conditions more deeply; and there will be countless more examples
不可交易的回调情况示例。现在，作为一个经验法则，如果回调本身已经不是最
of
pullback situations, both tradable and non-tradable, in the chapters
典范的那种，并且后续的条件至少在某种程度上是可疑的，那么请务必跳过这笔
ahead. For now, as a rule of thumb, if the pullback itself is already not
交易。为了你在市场上的所有时间和精力，给自己奖励高概率的交易，而不是过
of
the most exemplary kind, and the conditions for follow-through at
于急切地投身于市场的多变情绪之中。
least questionable to some extent, by all means just skip the trade. For
all your time and effort in the markets, reward yourself with high-odds
wagers only, rather than throwing yourself too eagerly at the mercy of
the market's fickle whims.
An event that shouldn't have raised any questions at all as to the
在第16根柱子上出现的回撤反转信号本不应该引发任何关于适当行动的疑问
proper cause of action is the pullback reversal offer above bar 1 6 . You
。你甚至不需要评估市场是趋势还是区间，就可以拒绝这样的交易。每当这些
don't even have to assess whether the market is trending or ranging to
异常高的柱子出现（13-14和14-15），事情确实变得不寻常，因此
decline a trade like this. Whenever these extraordinary tall bars show
up ( 1 3- 1 4 and 1 4- 1 5), things are indeed out of the ordinary and for this
132
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
reason alone, it is no longer safe to venture out with a tiny stop. Don't
even consider trading this. Just skip.
Note: If you regularly find yourself caught in ventures that look okay
at the onset yet rather questionable in hindsight, chances are your per­
ception of the odds is affected by your desire to trade. It is therefore
crucial to analyze all your past trades, both winners and losers, to find
out how much the element of overtrading plays a part in your game. If
it does so to an uncomfortable degree, and this turns out to be a habit
hard to kick, a possible solution could be to start trading multiple mar­
kets simultaneously. Thus, rather than trying to squeeze the life out of
one favorite instrument, set up a few more markets on your screens and
trade their nondebatable offers only.
In any case, always keep in mind that a savvy trader has no need for
a trade, which is why you will not easily catch him searching for one
either. Although we may freely use the verb as a figure of speech, the
best opportunities in the market are not found, they are spotted. The
sooner a student trader understands this subtle distinction, the better
his odds to emerge from the learning stages with funds left to trade and
morale still intact.
Let'� check out a couple more pullback reversal examples.
133
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
reason alone, it is no longer safe to venture out with a tiny stop. Don't
仅此原因，冒险使用小止损是没有安全感的。根本不要考虑交易这个。直接跳过
even consider trading this. Just skip.
。
Note: If you regularly find yourself caught in ventures that look okay
注意：如果你经常发现自己在看似不错但事后又显得可疑的交易中被困，
c
at theare
onset
yet rather questionable in hindsight, chances are your per­
hances
你的交易概率感知受到你交易欲望的影响。因此，分析你所有过去的
ception of the odds is affected by your desire to trade. It is therefore
交易，无论是赢家还是输家，都是至关重要的，以找出过度交易在你交易中的
crucial to analyze all your past trades, both winners and losers, to find
影响程度。如果这种影响程度让你感到不舒服，并且这成为了一个难以戒掉的
out how much the element of overtrading plays a part in your game. If
习惯，一个可能的解决方案是同时交易多个市场。因此，与其试图从一个最喜
it does so to an uncomfortable degree, and this turns out to be a habit
欢的工具中榨取所有的利润，不如在你的屏幕上设置几个市场，只交易那些无
hard to kick, a possible solution could be to start trading multiple mar­
可争议的机会。
kets simultaneously. Thus, rather than trying to squeeze the life out of
one favorite instrument, set up a few more markets on your screens and
trade their nondebatable offers only.
In any case, always keep in mind that a savvy trader has no need for
无论如何，请始终记住，一个精明的交易者并不需要交易，这就是为什么你不
a trade, which is why you will not easily catch him searching for one
会轻易发现他在寻找交易。尽管我们可以自由地将动词用作比喻，但市场上最好
either. Although we may freely use the verb as a figure of speech, the
的机会并不是被发现的，而是被识别的。一个学生交易者越早理解这个微妙的区
best
opportunities in the market are not found, they are spotted. The
别，他在学习阶段保留资金和保持士气的几率就越大。
sooner a student trader understands this subtle distinction, the better
his odds to emerge from the learning stages with funds left to trade and
morale still intact.
Let'� check out a couple more pullback reversal examples.
让我们再看看几个回调反转的例子。
133
Understanding Price Action
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Figure 5.18 In almost all trading literature, the trend is passionately
glorified as if it were a treasure trove full of high-odds opportunities.
Whether or not this reputation is rightfully earned, it is a fact of trading
life that on our 5-minute frame the beloved trend is more a rarity than
a common sight; and even if it shows up in full-fledged fashion, it may
offer very few pullbacks that retrace deep or lengthy enough to play a
reversal with acceptable risk. One benefit of the trend is beyond ques­
tion, though, and that is that it clearly tells us which side of the market
to shun.
Although printed as a continuous curve, the 25ema has a closing
price just like any regular bar. Since its slope is a reflection of the av­
erage closing price of the last 25 bars, it cannot help but lag behind if
suddenly a frantic wave of buying or selling takes the current price bars
away from the mean. In order for the average to catch up, so to speak,
prices either need to pull back towards it or they need to go sideways
for more than a bit and put in the so-called correction in time. A good
example of such a sideways correction is illustrated by the bull-flag for­
mation 1 -4, hanging from the high of the UK morning bull rally.
In a more rangebound market, it usually doesn't take very long for
a decent pullback to hit upon the 25ema. In a strong trend this may
not be the case for many hours on end. Although our core strategy is
designed to trade off the 25ema "base", there is no rule that says we
cannot deviate from standard procedure. But for this to be granted, we
best make sure to have the chart conditions strongly on our side.
I believe the entry above bar 4 provides a good example of a valid
134
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
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Figure 5.18 In almost all trading literature, the trend is passionately
在几乎所有的交易文献中，趋势都被热情地颂扬，仿佛它是一座充满高概率机会
glorified as if it were a treasure trove full of high-odds opportunities.
的宝藏。无论这种声誉是否名副其实，交易生活的一个事实是，在我们的5分钟
Whether or not this reputation is rightfully earned, it is a fact of trading
图表上，受人喜爱的趋势更像是一种稀有现象，而不是常见的景象；即使它以完
life that on our 5-minute frame the beloved trend is more a rarity than
全的形式出现，它可能也只提供很少的回调，无法深度或长时间地回撤到可以以
a common sight; and even if it shows up in full-fledged fashion, it may
可接受的风险进行反转的程度。然而，趋势有一个无可争议的好处，那就是它清
offer
very few pullbacks that retrace deep or lengthy enough to play a
楚地告诉我们应该避开市场的哪一方。
reversal with acceptable risk. One benefit of the trend is beyond ques­
tion, though, and that is that it clearly tells us which side of the market
to shun.
Although printed as a continuous curve, the 25ema has a closing
尽管以连续曲线的形式打印，25ema的收盘价就像任何常规的K线一样。由
price just like any regular bar. Since its slope is a reflection of the av­
于其斜率反映了过去25根K线的平均收盘价，因此如果突然出现一波疯狂的买
erage closing price of the last 25 bars, it cannot help but lag behind if
入或卖出，使当前价格K线远离均值，它必然会滞后。为了让平均值“追赶上来
suddenly a frantic wave of buying or selling takes the current price bars
”，价格要么需要回调到均值附近，要么需要横盘一段时间，进行所谓的时间
away from the mean. In order for the average to catch up, so to speak,
修正。一个这样的横盘修正的好例子是图1-4所示的牛市旗形，悬挂在英国早
either need to pull back towards it or they need to go sideways
prices
盘牛市反弹的高点上。
for more than a bit and put in the so-called correction in time. A good
example of such a sideways correction is illustrated by the bull-flag for­
mation 1 -4, hanging from the high of the UK morning bull rally.
In a more rangebound market, it usually doesn't take very long for
在一个更为区间震荡的市场中，通常不会花太长时间就能让一个合理的回调
a
decent pullback to hit upon the 25ema. In a strong trend this may
触及25ema。在强趋势中，这种情况可能会持续许多小时。尽管我们的核心策略是
not be the case for many hours on end. Although our core strategy is
基于25ema“基础”进行交易，但并没有规则规定我们不能偏离标准程序。但为了获
designed
to trade off the 25ema "base", there is no rule that says we
得这种偏离的许可，我们最好确保图表条件对我们非常有利。
cannot deviate from standard procedure. But for this to be granted, we
best make sure to have the chart conditions strongly on our side.
134
I我认为在第4根柱子上方的入场提供了一个有效的例子。
believe the entry above bar 4 provides a good example of a valid
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
exception. By accepting this offer, we basically imply that it is not our
entry that is premature, it is the average that is too late. Of course, trad­
ing is never a game of semantics. The only reason to accept a trade at all
is simply because the odds favor a positive outcome.
As we know from earlier discussions, to qualify for a breakout it is
essential for the flag to express a certain ripeness in harmony with the
pole from which it hangs. We also took up that it's hard to determine the
ideal presence of this concept. But maybe we can obtain a better under­
standing by imagining its absence first. For example, should we picture
this flag to already have been broken above, say, bar 2 , this would have
made for an uncomfortably small flag in relation to the might of the bull
rally. (Apart from the fact that such an entry would have been way too
far removed from the average to accept.)
It is important to understand, though, that the idea of harmony is
never a matter of bars per se, it is a function of the number of sideways
bars relative to the strength of the flagpole. Flag progression 5-6, for ex­
ample, was a nice flag in relation to its pole 4-5, even though it showed
only a three-bar body before breaking out.
As already mentioned, popular perception has it that when a flag
gets broken, this could induce a new swing more or less equal to the
length of the flagpole. There may be some debate on the exact points
from which to calculate this, but this doesn't take away from the pole­
flag-swing potential itself. Therefore, whenever we see a flag take on
"sufficient" body, this could portend the coming of a very interesting
breakout.
To determine whether progression 1 -4 could boast of such pleasur­
able characteristics, let's examine the available hints and clues up to
that point. First off, the overall pressure was indisputably up. Second,
the flag was the first decent pullback since the start of the bull rally.
Third, a premature break at T had been fended off by the bears, but the
subsequent correction had not surpassed the earlier low of 3 (the higher
low after the tease break indicated bullish resilience). Fourth, progres­
sion 3-4 showed the blocky features of buildup. Fifth, bar 4 had put in
a false low with its neighbor before spinning around and setting up as
a bullish signal bar.
135
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
exception. By accepting this offer, we basically imply that it is not our
通过接受这个提议，我们基本上暗示我们的入场并不是过早，而是平均水平太
entry
that is premature, it is the average that is too late. Of course, trad­
晚。当然，交易从来不是一个语义游戏。接受交易的唯一理由就是因为赔率有
ing
is never a game of semantics. The only reason to accept a trade at all
利于积极的结果。
is simply because the odds favor a positive outcome.
As we know from earlier discussions, to qualify for a breakout it is
正如我们之前讨论的，要想实现突破，旗帜必须与其悬挂的旗杆表现出某种
essential for the flag to express a certain ripeness in harmony with the
成熟度的和谐。我们还提到过，确定这一概念的理想存在是困难的。但也许我们
pole from which it hangs. We also took up that it's hard to determine the
可以通过先想象它的缺失来获得更好的理解。例如，如果我们设想这面旗帜已经
ideal presence of this concept. But maybe we can obtain a better under­
在第二根柱子上方突破，这将使得它在牛市的强大力量面前显得不够大。（除此
standing by imagining its absence first. For example, should we picture
之外，这样的入场点也会远离平均水平，难以接受。）
this flag to already have been broken above, say, bar 2 , this would have
made for an uncomfortably small flag in relation to the might of the bull
rally. (Apart from the fact that such an entry would have been way too
far removed from the average to accept.)
It is important to understand, though, that the idea of harmony is
然而，重要的是要理解，和谐的概念从来不是单纯由柱子数量决定的，而是
never
a matter of bars per se, it is a function of the number of sideways
由横向柱子数量与旗杆强度的关系所决定的。例如，旗帜的进展5-6与其旗杆4-5
bars
relative to the strength of the flagpole. Flag progression 5-6, for ex­
之间的关系很好，即使它在突破之前只显示了三根柱子的主体。
ample, was a nice flag in relation to its pole 4-5, even though it showed
only a three-bar body before breaking out.
As already mentioned, popular perception has it that when a flag
正如之前提到的，公众普遍认为，当一个旗形图形被打破时，这可能会引发一
gets
broken, this could induce a new swing more or less equal to the
个新的波动，其幅度大致等于旗杆的长度。虽然关于从哪个点开始计算可能存在
length of the flagpole. There may be some debate on the exact points
一些争论，但这并不影响旗杆-旗形-波动的潜力。因此，每当我们看到一个旗形
from which to calculate this, but this doesn't take away from the pole­
图形呈现出“足够”的形态时，这可能预示着一个非常有趣的突破即将到来。
flag-swing potential itself. Therefore, whenever we see a flag take on
"sufficient" body, this could portend the coming of a very interesting
breakout.
To determine whether progression 1 -4 could boast of such pleasur­
为了确定进程1-4是否具备这样的愉悦特征，让我们检查到目前为止可用的线
able characteristics, let's examine the available hints and clues up to
索和提示。首先，整体压力无疑是向上的。其次，旗形图形是自牛市开始以来
that point. First off, the overall pressure was indisputably up. Second,
的第一次明显回调。第三，在T点，早期的突破被空头抵挡住了，但随后的修正
the flag was the first decent pullback since the start of the bull rally.
并没有超过3的早期低点（在诱导突破后的更高低点表明了看涨的韧性）。第四
Third,
a premature break at T had been fended off by the bears, but the
，进程3-4显示出积累的块状特征。第五，条形图4在与其邻近条形图之前形成了
subsequent correction had not surpassed the earlier low of 3 (the higher
一个虚假低点，然后反转并设定为看涨信号条。
low after the tease break indicated bullish resilience). Fourth, progres­
sion 3-4 showed the blocky features of buildup. Fifth, bar 4 had put in
a false low with its neighbor before spinning around and setting up as
a bullish signal bar.
135
Understanding Price Action
An element of concern may have been the 50-level adverse magnet
which had been broken on the way up but not yet tested back. And
then there was a slight issue with the flag line which may not have been
broken yet on the break of bar 4 itself (depending on how sharply that
line was drawn by our fellow participants). Nevertheless, considering
all the elements that favored continuation, and with the flag itself more
and more a token of 50-level defiance, I believe we should just bite the
bullet here and accept.
If not in position on this flag break trade, or possibly already on tar­
get, could we deviate again from standard procedure so as to pick up
the flag break entry above bar 6? And what about an entry above bar 8?
Conservatively regarded, both are easy skips. In a strong trend it is
certainly not unthinkable to see some follow-through on these smaller
flag breakouts-and if already in position, it is always a pleasure to see
them break-but by themselves both entries would have demanded a
serious violation of standard operating tactics. Just look at the distance
away from the 25ema base. On the break above bar 4, we deliberately
strayed from the regular path on account of the excellent prospects (big
flag, first pullback) ; to do the same on subsequent wagers, of lesser
quality also, could be asking for trouble.
In the 9- 1 0 correction, the intermediate lows of 6 and 8 were taken
out, but in the light of the bullish dominance these were minor breaks
that weren't likely to harm the prevalent pressure. More interesting,
therefore, was the fact the bar 1 0 had put in a technical test with the
3-4 cluster, thereby taking care of the only adverse magnet of signifi­
cance in the area. Once this test was put in, it took only a couple of bars
for the market to set up another pullback reversal (enter long above
combi 1 1 ).
Prior to taking any position there are always two type of dangers to
assess: adverse magnets on the way to the stop and obstructive ele­
ments on the way to the target. While adverse magnets deserve caution
by default, if only as a consequence of a tight stop strategy, obstructive
elements on the way to target are best judged in relation to the market's
current strength. For example, in a more range bound market, the 7-9
double top in the round number area may have called for more caution
136
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
An element of concern may have been the 50-level adverse magnet
一个值得关注的元素可能是50级的不利磁力线，它在上升过程中已经被打破，
which had been broken on the way up but not yet tested back. And
但尚未进行回测。然后，关于旗形线的轻微问题，可能在第4根柱子的突破时尚
then there was a slight issue with the flag line which may not have been
未被打破（这取决于我们的同伴们如何画出那条线）。尽管如此，考虑到所有有
broken
yet on the break of bar 4 itself (depending on how sharply that
利于继续的因素，以及旗形本身越来越成为50级抵抗的象征，我认为我们应该咬
line was drawn by our fellow participants). Nevertheless, considering
紧牙关，接受这一点。
all the elements that favored continuation, and with the flag itself more
and more a token of 50-level defiance, I believe we should just bite the
bullet here and accept.
If
not in position on this flag break trade, or possibly already on tar­
如果在这个旗形突破交易中没有持仓，或者可能已经达到了目标，我们是
get,
could we deviate again from standard procedure so as to pick up
否可以再次偏离标准程序，以便在第6根柱子上方进行旗形突破的入场？那么
the flag break entry above bar 6? And what about an entry above bar 8?
在第8根柱子上方的入场呢？从保守的角度来看，这两者都是轻松的跳过。在
Conservatively regarded, both are easy skips. In a strong trend it is
强趋势中，看到这些较小的旗形突破有一些后续动作，当然不是不可能—
certainly
not unthinkable to see some follow-through on these smaller
—如果已经持仓，看到它们突破总是一种乐趣——但就其本身而言，这两个入
flag
breakouts-and if already in position, it is always a pleasure to see
场都将要求严重违反标准操作策略。看看距离25ema基线的距离。在第4根柱子
them
break-but by themselves both entries would have demanded a
上方突破时，我们故意偏离了常规路径，因为前景非常好（大旗形，第一次回
serious violation of standard operating tactics. Just look at the distance
调）；在后续的赌注中做同样的事情，质量较低，也可能是在寻求麻烦。
away from the 25ema base. On the break above bar 4, we deliberately
strayed from the regular path on account of the excellent prospects (big
flag, first pullback) ; to do the same on subsequent wagers, of lesser
quality also, could be asking for trouble.
In the 9- 1 0 correction, the intermediate lows of 6 and 8 were taken
在9-10的修正中，6和8的中间低点被突破，但考虑到看涨的主导地位，这些只
out, but in the light of the bullish dominance these were minor breaks
是小的突破，不太可能对当前的压力造成伤害。因此，更有趣的是，第10根柱子
that
weren't likely to harm the prevalent pressure. More interesting,
与3-4的聚集区进行了技术测试，从而消除了该区域内唯一一个重要的负面磁力。
therefore, was the fact the bar 1 0 had put in a technical test with the
一旦这个测试完成，市场只需几根柱子就能设定另一个回调反转（在组合11上方
3-4 cluster, thereby taking care of the only adverse magnet of signifi­
进入多头）。
cance in the area. Once this test was put in, it took only a couple of bars
for the market to set up another pullback reversal (enter long above
combi 1 1 ).
Prior to taking any position there are always two type of dangers to
在采取任何头寸之前，总是需要评估两种类型的风险：在止损路上的负面磁
assess:
adverse magnets on the way to the stop and obstructive ele­
力和在目标路上的阻碍因素。虽然负面磁力默认情况下值得谨慎对待，尤其是
ments on the way to the target. While adverse magnets deserve caution
由于紧止损策略的结果，但在目标路上的阻碍因素最好根据市场当前的强度来
by
default, if only as a consequence of a tight stop strategy, obstructive
判断。例如，在一个更为区间震荡的市场中，7-9的双顶在整数区域可能需要更
elements on the way to target are best judged in relation to the market's
多的谨慎。
current strength. For example, in a more range bound market, the 7-9
double top in the round number area may have called for more caution
136
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
on the bull side. Yet it is the very nature of a trend to sooner take out
such resistance than be obstructed by it.
Note: Since our entry bar (above the arrow) did not shoot off right
away but instead closed bullishly a few pip above the average, this ba­
sically set up another pullback reversal (for those not yet in position) .
But here we touch upon a provocative issue: if the second break with
the higher entry was also playable for 20 pip, should we then not adjust
the target level of the first trade, if in position on it, to meet the higher
objective of the second? That's a valid question for sure, but I leave it
up to the reader to answer it. Personally, I am not a fan of meddling
with an open trade in an attempt to gun for more profits than originally
intended. But it's hard to argue with anyone taking a different view on
this matter. By the same token, if position was taken on the first entry,
the stop could then be lifted to the level of the stop on the higher entry.
Yet all this is very much dependent on personal style and management
technique. (Do recall that our 20/ 1 0 bracket, though highly effective, is
merely a suggestion, too.)
Amazingly, just a few bars later, this bull trend came up with yet
another flag pattern ( 1 2 - 1 3low) hanging sideways from the pole 1 1 - 1 2.
Although the break of this flag did not set up in tradable fashion, the
powerful pop in bar 1 3 shows us once again that when the market is
in trending mode, contrarians have little business defying the obvious.
More than learning about specific entry techniques, probably the
biggest lesson to take away from this chart is to always acknowledge the
presence of a trend. When it comes to playing it for continuation, it may
very well be that no valid entries are provided or that they feel too un­
comfortable or too borderline to accept. If that is the case, just let these
sessions be. It is always better to remain empty-handed on the sidelines
than to chase the market up or down out of fear of missing out.
137
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
on the bull side. Yet it is the very nature of a trend to sooner take out
在牛市的一侧。然而，趋势的本质就是更早地突破这样的阻力，而不是被其阻挡
such resistance than be obstructed by it.
。
Note: Since our entry bar (above the arrow) did not shoot off right
注意：由于我们的入场条（箭头上方）并没有立即大幅上涨，而是以平均
away but instead closed bullishly a few pip above the average, this ba­
水平之上几点的看涨方式收盘，这基本上为尚未入场的人设定了另一个回调反
sically set up another pullback reversal (for those not yet in position) .
转的机会。但在这里我们触及一个引人深思的问题：如果第二次突破的更高入
But here we touch upon a provocative issue: if the second break with
场也可以获得20点的利润，那么如果我们已经在第一个交易中持仓，是否应该
the
higher entry was also playable for 20 pip, should we then not adjust
将目标水平调整到第二个交易的更高目标？这确实是一个有效的问题，但我将
the
target level of the first trade, if in position on it, to meet the higher
其留给读者自己回答。就我个人而言，我不喜欢在开放交易中干预，以试图追
objective of the second? That's a valid question for sure, but I leave it
求比最初预期更多的利润。但很难反驳任何持不同观点的人。同样，如果在第
up
to the reader to answer it. Personally, I am not a fan of meddling
一次入场时已经持仓，那么止损可以提升到更高入场的止损水平。然而，这一
with an open trade in an attempt to gun for more profits than originally
切都非常依赖于个人风格和管理技巧。（请记住，我们的20/10区间，尽管非常
intended. But it's hard to argue with anyone taking a different view on
有效，但也仅仅是一个建议。）
this matter. By the same token, if position was taken on the first entry,
the stop could then be lifted to the level of the stop on the higher entry.
Yet all this is very much dependent on personal style and management
technique. (Do recall that our 20/ 1 0 bracket, though highly effective, is
merely a suggestion, too.)
Amazingly, just a few bars later, this bull trend came up with yet
令人惊讶的是，就在几根K线之后，这个牛市趋势又出现了一个旗形模式（1
another flag pattern ( 1 2 - 1 3low) hanging sideways from the pole 1 1 - 1 2.
2-13低点），横向延伸于11-12的杆子。尽管这个旗形的突破并没有以可交易的
Although the break of this flag did not set up in tradable fashion, the
方式设定，但第13根K线的强劲上涨再次告诉我们，当市场处于趋势模式时，逆
powerful pop in bar 1 3 shows us once again that when the market is
势者几乎没有理由去违抗明显的趋势。与其学习具体的入场技巧，或许从这张
in trending mode, contrarians have little business defying the obvious.
图中得到的最大教训就是始终要承认趋势的存在。当涉及到继续顺势操作时，
More than learning about specific entry techniques, probably the
可能根本没有有效的入场机会，或者这些机会让人感到不舒服或过于边缘
biggest lesson to take away from this chart is to always acknowledge the
。如果是这种情况，那就让这些交易时段过去吧。在市场上下追逐出于害怕错
presence of a trend. When it comes to playing it for continuation, it may
过而导致的损失，始终保持空手在场外要更好。
very well be that no valid entries are provided or that they feel too un­
comfortable or too borderline to accept. If that is the case, just let these
sessions be. It is always better to remain empty-handed on the sidelines
than to chase the market up or down out of fear of missing out.
137
Understanding Price Action
I Fig 5.191
...-.ProRealTime.com
eurlusd 5-minu1e
13
-1 .375
3
02:00
03:00
04:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
Figure 5.1 9 While it is impossible to predict the exact level for a trend to
shift into a ranging phase, the shift from a sideways market into a trend­
ing phase can often be anticipated with the utmost precision. If only
for this reason, every trader owes it to himself to get up to speed with
range break tactics. But the barrier fights are not the sole determinants
of participation. When showing sizable width, it is not unthinkable to
trade within the range itself. In many an instance, the outer barriers
may even work as magnets, pleasantly sucking an inside-range trade in
the plus, or even to target.
A good indication of a ranging market is a rather flat 25ema with
prices meandering above and below it without making much headway
on either side. Always handy is to wrap a box around such action and
extend it to the right for future purposes. The moment prices edged
down from the high of bar 5, the box could already have been deployed
as depicted. When it comes to the degree of its extension, just plot what­
ever looks harmonious in terms of width and length; a ratio of about
1 :3 will usually do fine. You can always extend the box some more if
necessary.
This range eventually got broken not from a buildup situation di­
rectly underneath the top barrier, but from a level well below it. This
implies that we couldn't have traded the breakout in regular pattern
break fashion. It is interesting to see, though, that the range barrier still
played a role in both trades of the session: first it showed its magnetic
powers on the break above combi 1 1 , and later on it provided the base
for a bull-flag reversal ( 1 3- 1 5) . Before we take up the details of these
138
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
I Fig
5.191
图 5.19
...-.ProRealTime.com
eurlusd
欧元/美元5-minu1e
5 分钟
13
-1 .375
3
02:00
03:00
04:00
06:00
07:00
08:00
Figure尽管无法准确预测趋势转变为区间阶段的确切水平，但从横盘市场转变为
5.1 9 While it is impossible to predict the exact level for a trend to
图5.19
shift into a ranging phase, the shift from a sideways market into a trend­
趋势阶段往往可以以极高的精确度进行预判。仅仅因为这个原因，每个交易者
ing phase can often be anticipated with the utmost precision. If only
都应该努力掌握区间突破策略。但障碍战斗并不是参与的唯一决定因素。当显
for this reason, every trader owes it to himself to get up to speed with
示出相当大的宽度时，在区间内交易并非不可能。在许多情况下，外部障碍甚至
range
break tactics. But the barrier fights are not the sole determinants
可能像磁铁一样吸引区间内的交易，愉快地将其推向盈利，甚至达到目标。
of participation. When showing sizable width, it is not unthinkable to
trade within the range itself. In many an instance, the outer barriers
may even work as magnets, pleasantly sucking an inside-range trade in
the plus, or even to target.
A good indication of a ranging market is a rather flat 25ema with
区间市场的一个良好指示是相当平坦的25ema，价格在其上方和下方徘徊，而
prices
meandering above and below it without making much headway
在任一侧都没有取得太大进展。将一个框框围绕这样的动作并向右延伸以备将来
on
either side. Always handy is to wrap a box around such action and
使用总是很方便。当价格从第5根柱子的高点向下移动时，框框已经可以如图所示
extend it to the right for future purposes. The moment prices edged
部署。至于其延伸的程度，只需绘制看起来和谐的宽度和长度比例；大约1:3的比
down from the high of bar 5, the box could already have been deployed
例通常就很好。如果有必要，您可以随时进一步延伸框框。
as depicted. When it comes to the degree of its extension, just plot what­
ever looks harmonious in terms of width and length; a ratio of about
1 :3 will usually do fine. You can always extend the box some more if
necessary.
This
range eventually got broken not from a buildup situation di­
这个区间最终被打破并不是因为顶部障碍下方直接的积累情况，而是来自于
rectly
underneath the top barrier, but from a level well below it. This
一个远低于它的水平。这意味着我们无法以常规模式突破的方式进行交易。不
implies
that we couldn't have traded the breakout in regular pattern
过有趣的是，区间障碍在本次交易的两个阶段中仍然发挥了作用：首先，它在
break fashion. It is interesting to see, though, that the range barrier still
突破组合11时显示了其吸引力，随后又为牛旗反转（13-15）提供了基础。在我
played a role in both trades of the session: first it showed its magnetic
们详细讨论这些之前，先快速回顾一下早期的走势。
powers on the break above combi 1 1 , and later on it provided the base
for a bull-flag reversal ( 1 3- 1 5) . Before we take up the details of these
138
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
ventures, let us quickly run through some of the earlier action first.
On the far left there appeared a bearish combi at the end of a diago­
nal pullback to the 25ema (2), but from what is shown we cannot tell
whether this set up a reversal that called for action.
A pullback reversal to have skipped for sure was the short below bar
4. Not only was there zero buildup in this turn, there was also a strong
risk of the 50-level adverse magnet.
Bulls bravely marched on beyond the round number and soon hit
upon the high of bar 1 at 5 . As is quite common, the former high offered
resistance and although it took some pulling and pushing in the area,
ultimately prices were forced to retreat, leaving a triple top in their wake
( 1 -5-6). Not long after, the 6-7 correction hit upon a supportive triple
of the 25ema, the round number and what looked to be a 40 percent
retracement of the 3-5 bull swing. As bears laid low in this tricky area,
bulls were given ample chance to regroup and plan another charge on
the top barrier defense.
The break of bar 7, however, was not a good place from where to
launch this new attack. Prices may have pulled back to the average,
and bar 7 may have been a turnaround bar in it, and even a false low
with its direct neighbor, there was neither trend nor buildup to back
up this charge. Instead, there was the 5-6 bear block directly overhead
(M-pattern middle-part).
About an hour later, the 50-level defense was much more estab­
lished. Despite the overall thinness of the "correction in time", both bar
9 and combi 1 0 had managed to put in a higher low, and bar 8 a false
low with 7. Furthermore, if we zoom out a little, we can see that the 7 - 1 1
action was actually part of a much bigger pattern, the bull-flag 5- 1 1
hanging from the pole 3-5.
Although the current development favored a bull break more than a
bear break, the offer above combi 10 can be qualified as premature still.
Considering the subdued action of the moment, and with the bigger flag
line yet to be broken (dotted line), it just wasn't very likely that prices
would shoot off like a rocket here. So why not grant the market a little
extra time to set up the break in a stronger fashion.
In all fairness, the span of combi 1 1 , too, was terribly nondescript,
139
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
ventures, let us quickly run through some of the earlier action first.
在最左侧，出现了一个看跌组合，位于对25ema（2）的对角回调末端，但
On the far left there appeared a bearish combi at the end of a diago­
从所示内容来看，我们无法判断这是否设置了一个需要采取行动的反转。
nal pullback to the 25ema (2), but from what is shown we cannot tell
whether this set up a reversal that called for action.
A pullback reversal to have skipped for sure was the short below bar
一个肯定应该跳过的回调反转是第4根柱子下方的空头。这个转折不仅没有任何
4. Not only was there zero buildup in this turn, there was also a strong
积累，而且还有强烈的风险，50水平的逆向吸引力。
risk of the 50-level adverse magnet.
Bulls bravely marched on beyond the round number and soon hit
公牛勇敢地超越了整数关口，很快在5的高点上遭遇了阻力。正如常见的情
upon
the high of bar 1 at 5 . As is quite common, the former high offered
况，之前的高点提供了阻力，尽管在这个区域经历了一些拉锯，最终价格被迫
resistance
and although it took some pulling and pushing in the area,
回撤，留下了一个三重顶（1-5-6）。不久之后，6-7的修正触及了25ema的支撑
ultimately
prices were forced to retreat, leaving a triple top in their wake
三重点、整数关口以及看似是3-5牛市波动的40%回撤。由于熊在这个棘手的区
( 1 -5-6). Not long after, the 6-7 correction hit upon a supportive triple
域保持低调，公牛得到了充足的机会来重新集结并计划再次冲击顶部防线。
of the 25ema, the round number and what looked to be a 40 percent
retracement of the 3-5 bull swing. As bears laid low in this tricky area,
bulls were given ample chance to regroup and plan another charge on
the top barrier defense.
The break of bar 7, however, was not a good place from where to
然而，突破7号柱并不是发起新攻击的好时机。价格可能回撤到平均水平，7
launch this new attack. Prices may have pulled back to the average,
号柱可能是一个反转柱，甚至与其直接邻居形成了一个假低点，但并没有趋势
and
bar 7 may have been a turnaround bar in it, and even a false low
或积累来支持这次进攻。相反，直接在头顶上方的是5-6的熊市阻力（M形态的中
with its direct neighbor, there was neither trend nor buildup to back
间部分）。
up this charge. Instead, there was the 5-6 bear block directly overhead
(M-pattern middle-part).
About an hour later, the 50-level defense was much more estab­
大约一个小时后，50级防线更加稳固。尽管“时间修正”的整体薄弱，bar9和co
lished.
Despite the overall thinness of the
"correction in time", both7也是
bar
mbi
10都设法形成了一个更高的低点，而bar
8则形成了一个虚假的低点，bar
9 and combi 1 0 had managed to put in a higher low, and bar 8 a false
如此。此外，如果我们稍微放大一下，可以看到7-11的动作实际上是一个更大模
low with 7. Furthermore, if we zoom out a little, we can see that the 7 - 1 1
式的一部分，即从3-5的杆子悬挂下来的牛旗5-11。
action was actually part of a much bigger pattern, the bull-flag 5- 1 1
hanging from the pole 3-5.
Although the current development favored a bull break
more than a
尽管当前的发展更倾向于牛市突破而非熊市突破，但combi
10上方的卖盘仍
bear
break, the offer above combi 10 can be qualified as premature still.
然可以被视为过早。考虑到目前的行动较为平淡，并且更大的旗形线尚未被突
Considering the subdued action of the moment, and with the bigger flag
破（虚线），在这里价格不太可能像火箭一样飞涨。那么，为什么不让市场多
line
yet to be broken (dotted line), it just wasn't very likely that prices
一点时间，以更强的方式设定突破呢。
would shoot off like a rocket here. So why not grant the market a little
extra time to set up the break in a stronger fashion.
In
all fairness,11的跨度也非常无趣，
the span of combi 1 1 , too, was terribly nondescript,
老实说，combi
139
Understanding Price Action
but with the dotted line now cleared, at least the. issue of immediate
resistance was solved. Looking closely, this pullback reversal harbored
all the makings of a pattern break combi setup as well.
If we compare the break of combi 1 1 with the break of bar 7, both at
the same price level, this nicely demonstrates that skipping or accepting
an offer never comes down to price, it is always a function of pressure,
buildup and conditions. And another thing: whereas the top barrier of
the range was likely to act as resistance to a break above bar 7, on the
break above combi 1 1 it stood to work as a favorable magnet. Simply as
a consequence of the better buildup.
This example suggests also that, given certain conditions, a barrier
breakout can indeed be anticipated from a level well within the range.
Even though prices may still have to surpass the outer barrier to get to
target, at least the position will be pleasantly in the plus on impact. Fur­
thermore, there is usually less need also for a substantial break to reach
destination. And not uninteresting either, should the barrier level prove
too hard to crack, the current profits on the trade provide reasonable
cushioning for the position to be scratched with minimal damage, or
even for a profit still. (Intervention tactics will be taken up in Chapter 6.)
In earlier discussions we came to regard the pullback to a broken
barrier as a continuation setup ( 1 3- 1 4) . But we also addressed the fact
that, particularly in a tease break scenario, the pullback is not neces­
sarily halted by the barrier level itself; prices are often seen to break
back into the pattern to put in a ceiling test of sorts.
Regardless of whether a tease break correction remains outside of
a broken pattern or travels back in, things usually do not differ much
when it comes to assessing a pullback reversal or pattern break pull­
back setup. In all cases we have to monitor the behavior of the pullback,
the amount of retracement, the harmony aspect and the potential level
for a ceiling test bounce. And in all cases we have to locate a crucial bar
from which break to play the reversal.
This leaves us to examine the options on the 1 3- 14 correction. How
about bar 1 4 itself? Although this bar had found support in bar 1 2 on
the left, and also touched upon the 50 percent retracement of the 1 1 1 3 breakout swing, it didn't really set up as a very dependable signal
140
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
but
with the dotted line now cleared, at least the. issue of immediate
但随着虚线的清除，至少立即的阻力问题得以解决。仔细观察，这次回调反转具
resistance
was solved. Looking closely, this pullback reversal harbored
备了模式突破组合设置的所有特征。
all the makings of a pattern break combi setup as well.
If we compare the break of combi 1 1 with the break of bar 7, both at
如果我们将组合11的突破与第7根柱的突破进行比较，二者在同一价格水平
the same price level, this nicely demonstrates that skipping or accepting
上，这很好地展示了跳过或接受报价从来不是价格的问题，而始终是压力、积
an offer never comes down to price, it is always a function of pressure,
累和条件的函数。还有一点：虽然区间的上方障碍很可能在突破第7根柱时充当
buildup and conditions. And another thing: whereas the top barrier of
阻力，但在突破组合11时，它则有望作为一个有利的磁铁。仅仅是由于更好的
the range was likely to act as resistance to a break above bar 7, on the
积累。
break above combi 1 1 it stood to work as a favorable magnet. Simply as
a consequence of the better buildup.
This
example suggests also that, given certain conditions, a barrier
这个例子还表明，考虑到某些条件，障碍突破确实可以从区间内的某个水
breakout can indeed be anticipated from a level well within the range.
平进行预期。尽管价格可能仍需超过外部障碍才能达到目标，但至少在影响时
Even though prices may still have to surpass the outer barrier to get to
头寸会愉快地处于盈利状态。此外，通常也不需要大幅突破即可到达目的地。
target, at least the position will be pleasantly in the plus on impact. Fur­
而且也不无趣的是，如果障碍水平证明太难突破，交易的当前利润为头寸提供
thermore, there is usually less need also for a substantial break to reach
了合理的缓冲，以便以最小的损失甚至仍然获利的方式退出。（干预策略将在
destination. And not uninteresting either, should the barrier level prove
第六章中讨论。）在早期的讨论中，我们将回调到破裂障碍视为一种延续设置
too hard to crack, the current profits on the trade provide reasonable
（13-14）。但我们也提到，特别是在诱导突破的情况下，回调不一定会被障碍
cushioning for the position to be scratched with minimal damage, or
水平本身所阻止；价格通常会被看到突破回到模式中，以进行某种形式的顶部
even for a profit still. (Intervention tactics will be taken up in Chapter 6.)
测试。
In earlier discussions we came to regard the pullback to a broken
barrier as a continuation setup ( 1 3- 1 4) . But we also addressed the fact
that, particularly in a tease break scenario, the pullback is not neces­
sarily halted by the barrier level itself; prices are often seen to break
back into the pattern to put in a ceiling test of sorts.
Regardless of whether a tease break correction remains outside of
无论一个调侃的回调修正是保持在一个破碎的模式之外，还是回到里面，评估
a broken pattern or travels back in, things usually do not differ much
回调反转或模式破裂回调设置时，通常没有太大区别。在所有情况下，我们都必
when it comes to assessing a pullback reversal or pattern break pull­
须监测回调的行为、回撤的幅度、和谐的方面以及潜在的天花板测试反弹的水平
back setup. In all cases we have to monitor the behavior of the pullback,
。在所有情况下，我们都必须找到一个关键的柱子，从中突破以进行反转。
the amount of retracement, the harmony aspect and the potential level
for a ceiling test bounce. And in all cases we have to locate a crucial bar
from which break to play the reversal.
This leaves us to examine the options on the 1 3- 14 correction. How
这使我们需要检查13-14回调的选项。第14根柱子怎么样？尽管这根柱子在左
about
bar 1 4 itself? Although this bar had found support in bar 1 2 on
侧的第12根柱子上找到了支撑，并且也触及了11-13突破波段的50%回撤，但它并
the left, and also touched upon the 50 percent retracement of the 1 1 没有真正设定为一个非常可靠的信号。
1 3 breakout swing, it didn't really set up as a very dependable signal
140
Chapter 5
Trade Setups - Pullback Reversal
bar. At that moment in time, the features of the pullback were still quite
blocky and thus offered too much resistance for this breakout to qualify
as a high-odds wager. Best to relax and see if the market once again
would be kind enough to set up a better offer.
Depending on preference, there were several ways to have taken po­
sition on the bull-side breakout with reasonable odds attached. The
first was to fire long in bar 1 5 the moment it took out its predecessor,
which nicely coincided with the re-break of the range barrier. However,
with the pullback still quite blocky overhead, and its angular barrier
yet to be broken, this option, too, can be deemed quite aggressive. An
immediate alternative here was to wait for bar 1 5 to take out the pull­
back line first, a few pip higher up, and then fire long. Evidently, this
is a deviation from standard routine because the entry is not taken di­
rectly upon the break of a signal bar. Depending on the "ripeness" of the
buildup, this can be a defensible tactic at times, but it should be taken
into account that the bracket stop will be lifted along with a higher en­
try. Not necessarily a problem, but it may pay to check if this doesn't
offer a very awkward stop in the situation at hand.
Standard procedure, although at the inevitable risk of missing the
break, is to simply wait for a signal bar to set up either against the bar­
rier of interest or slightly through, and then enter upon its break. Bar
1 5 set up perfectly in this respect, with its high just peeking through
the flag line. With both barriers now cleared, the only obstruction of
technical relevance on the way to the round number magnet was the
high of the flag itself ( 1 3) . Seldom a major concern.
141
Chapter 5
第五章
Trade Setups
- Pullback Reversal
交易设置
- 回调反转
bar. At that moment in time, the features of the pullback were still quite
在那个时刻，回调的特征仍然相当块状，因此为这个突破提供了太多的阻力，使
blocky and thus offered too much resistance for this breakout to qualify
其无法被视为高概率的赌注。最好放松一下，看看市场是否会再次善待我们，设
as a high-odds wager. Best to relax and see if the market once again
定一个更好的机会。
would be kind enough to set up a better offer.
Depending on preference, there were several ways to have taken po­
根据个人偏好，有几种方式可以在牛市突破中采取多头头寸，附带合理的赔
sition
on the bull-side breakout with reasonable odds attached. The
率。第一种是在第15根K线突破其前一根K线的瞬间进场，这恰好与区间障碍的重
first was to fire long in bar 1 5 the moment it took out its predecessor,
新突破相吻合。然而，由于上方的回调仍然相当块状，并且其角度障碍尚未被突
which
nicely coincided with the re-break of the range barrier. However,
破，这个选项也可以被视为相当激进。这里的一个直接替代方案是等待第15根K
with
the pullback still quite blocky overhead, and its angular barrier
线先突破回调线，再稍微高一些进场做多。显然，这与标准程序有所偏离，因为
yet
to be broken, this option, too, can be deemed quite aggressive. An
入场并不是在信号K线突破时直接进行。根据“成熟度”的不同，这有时可以是一种
immediate
alternative here was to wait for bar 1 5 to take out the pull­
合理的策略，但需要考虑的是，随着更高的入场点，区间止损也会被抬高。这
back line first, a few pip higher up, and then fire long. Evidently, this
不一定是个问题，但最好检查一下这是否在当前情况下提供了一个非常尴尬的
is
a deviation from standard routine because the entry is not taken di­
止损。
rectly upon the break of a signal bar. Depending on the "ripeness" of the
buildup, this can be a defensible tactic at times, but it should be taken
into account that the bracket stop will be lifted along with a higher en­
try. Not necessarily a problem, but it may pay to check if this doesn't
offer a very awkward stop in the situation at hand.
Standard procedure, although at the inevitable risk of missing the
标准程序，尽管不可避免地存在错过突破的风险，通常是等待一个信号柱的
break,
is to simply wait for a signal bar to set up either against the bar­
形成，无论是在感兴趣的障碍上还是稍微穿过它，然后在其突破时进入。第15
rier of interest or slightly through, and then enter upon its break. Bar
根柱子在这方面设置得非常完美，其高点刚好突破了旗形线。现在两个障碍都
1 5 set up perfectly in this respect, with its high just peeking through
被清除，通往整数磁铁的唯一技术相关障碍是旗形本身的高点（13）。这通常
the flag line. With both barriers now cleared, the only obstruction of
不是一个主要问题。
technical relevance on the way to the round number magnet was the
high of the flag itself ( 1 3) . Seldom a major concern.
141
Cha pter 6
Manual Exits
When discussing our series of setups-the pattern break, the pattern
break pullback, the pattern break combi and the pullback reversal-we
mainly looked at the market from a trade entry perspective. If we are
to use the bracket as the sole source of trade management there is
indeed little point in elaborating on the matter of exits because it is all
taken care of automatically from the moment of entry. With our per­
sonal bracket in place there are only two possible outcomes to consider:
either the target is reached for a profit of 20 pip, or the stop is taken out
for a loss of 10.
Although no claim is made as to the superiority of this approach over
any other style of management, it does solve a problem that is known
to wreak havoc on many a trader, even on the experienced: the loss
of mental stability when exposed in the market. Unequivocally, this is
an occupational hazard that sooner or later is bound to rear its ugly
head and no trader is ever fully safe from the groping claws of this
treacherous little demon. Throughout the years, a long range of clever
psychologists has gone to great pains to investigate what lies at the root
of this self-destructive phenomenon, yet very little so far has been of­
fered in t�rms of curing the disease. In that light, praise should go out
to those who have earned it the most: the inventors of the bracket.
Religiously abiding by the bracket order settings indeed knows many
benefits, but it may not always be the most sensible approach for the
situation at hand. For example, what if we can imagine resistance to
143
Cha pter 6
第六章
手动退出
Manual Exits
When discussing our series of setups-the pattern break, the pattern
在讨论我们的系列设置时——模式突破、模式突破回调、模式突破组合和回调反
break
pullback, the pattern break combi and the pullback reversal-we
转——我们主要从交易入场的角度看待市场。如果我们将括号作为唯一的交易管
mainly looked at the market from a trade entry perspective. If we are
理来源，那么详细阐述退出问题就没有太大意义，因为从进入的那一刻起，一切
to
use the bracket as the sole source of trade management there is
都自动处理好了。只要我们的个人括号到位，就只有两种可能的结果需要考虑：
indeed
little point in elaborating on the matter of exits because it is all
要么目标达到，获利20点，要么止损被触发，损失10点。
taken care of automatically from the moment of entry. With our per­
sonal bracket in place there are only two possible outcomes to consider:
either the target is reached for a profit of 20 pip, or the stop is taken out
for a loss of 10.
Although no claim is made as to the superiority of this approach over
虽然没有声称这种方法优于其他管理风格，但它确实解决了一个众所周知的
any
other style of management, it does solve a problem that is known
问题，这个问题对许多交易者，甚至是经验丰富的交易者来说，都会造成严重
to wreak havoc on many a trader, even on the experienced: the loss
影响：在市场中失去心理稳定性。毫无疑问，这是一种职业风险，迟早会显露
of
mental stability when exposed in the market. Unequivocally, this is
出其丑陋的一面，没有任何交易者能够完全摆脱这个狡猾的小恶魔的纠缠。多
an occupational hazard that sooner or later is bound to rear its ugly
年来，许多聪明的心理学家费尽心思去调查这一自我毁灭现象的根源，但迄今
head and no trader is ever fully safe from the groping claws of this
为止，几乎没有提供任何治愈这种疾病的方案。在这种情况下，应该给予那些
treacherous little demon. Throughout the years, a long range of clever
最值得赞扬的人以赞美：即“括号”的发明者。
psychologists has gone to great pains to investigate what lies at the root
of this self-destructive phenomenon, yet very little so far has been of­
fered in t�rms of curing the disease. In that light, praise should go out
to those who have earned it the most: the inventors of the bracket.
Religiously
abiding by the bracket order settings indeed knows many
严格遵守括号订单设置确实有许多好处，但在某些情况下，这可能并不是最
benefits,
but it may not always be the most sensible approach for the
明智的做法。例如，如果我们可以想象到阻力
situation at hand. For example, what if we can imagine resistance to
143
Understanding Price Action
kick in just a few pip shy of target. And what if a sideways cluster of
bars gets broken against an open position; should we just stay in and
hope for the best, or would it be more wise to intervene and close out
the trade before more damage is done?
In this chapter we will try to shed some light on these matters, but it
should be noted that if we venture out on this more discretionary path,
there is no escaping the occasional gray area of arbitrary contempla­
tions that may raise more questions after the fact than provide answers
before it. On the good side, if any of the following for some reason seems
too impractical to be put to good use, it can always be discarded. By
simply applying a nonnegotiable bracket on all your carefully selected
wagers in the market, the results should already be very promising.
But let this not stop us from reviewing some highly effective inter­
vention techniques that at some point may come in very handy in the
field, possibly even on a daily basis. They are: ( 1 ) exiting a trade with a
news report coming up, (2) exiting a trade in resistance close to target,
and (3) exiting a trade on account of a reversal development.
News Report Exit
Since the market's response to a major release can be dangerously fick­
ly and is often seen to fully defy the earlier dominant pressures (spikes
of more than 50 pip are not uncommon), the general recommendation
is to avoid exposure when such news comes out. Whether this means
not trading an hour, a half hour or just a few bars prior to the release is
not so easy to point out. Among other things, it could depend on one's
appetite for risk, the technical picture and the overall activity of the pre­
news market, as well as the perceived significance of the report itself.
Very often the significance of an upcoming report can already be
gauged by watching the way the market trades up towards the release.
If the price action goes flat for several hours on end, this could be an
indication that big parties are laying low in anticipation of the event; in
such cases, we often see a vicious response the very second the news
comes out.
144
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
kick
in just a few pip shy of target. And what if a sideways cluster of
在目标前几点被踢出。那么，如果一个横向的柱状群体被打破，而我们有一个
bars
gets broken against an open position; should we just stay in and
开放的头寸；我们应该继续持有并希望得到最好的结果，还是更明智地干预并
hope for the best, or would it be more wise to intervene and close out
在造成更多损失之前平仓？
the trade before more damage is done?
In this chapter we will try to shed some light on these matters, but it
在本章中，我们将尝试阐明这些问题，但需要注意的是，如果我们在这个
should be noted that if we venture out on this more discretionary path,
更具自由裁量权的道路上冒险，就无法避免偶尔出现的模糊地带，这些模糊地
there is no escaping the occasional gray area of arbitrary contempla­
带可能在事后引发更多问题，而不是在事前提供答案。好的一面是，如果以下
tions that may raise more questions after the fact than provide answers
任何内容出于某种原因看起来太不切实际而无法付诸实践，它总是可以被丢弃
before
it. On the good side, if any of the following for some reason seems
。通过对您精心挑选的市场赌注施加一个不可谈判的限制，结果应该已经非常
too impractical to be put to good use, it can always be discarded. By
有希望。
simply applying a nonnegotiable bracket on all your carefully selected
wagers in the market, the results should already be very promising.
But let this not stop us from reviewing some highly effective inter­
但这并不妨碍我们回顾一些在实际操作中可能非常有效的干预技巧，这些技
vention techniques that at some point may come in very handy in the
巧在某些时候可能会派上用场，甚至可能是日常使用。它们包括：（1）在即将
field, possibly even on a daily basis. They are: ( 1 ) exiting a trade with a
发布新闻报告时退出交易，（2）在接近目标的阻力位退出交易，以及（3）因
news report coming up, (2) exiting a trade in resistance close to target,
反转发展而退出交易。
and (3) exiting a trade on account of a reversal development.
News Report Exit
新闻报告退出
Since the market's response to a major release can be dangerously fick­
由于市场对重大发布的反应可能非常反复无常，且常常完全违背之前的主导压
ly
and is often seen to fully defy the earlier dominant pressures (spikes
力（超过50点的波动并不少见），一般建议在此类新闻发布时避免持仓。这意
of more than 50 pip are not uncommon), the general recommendation
味着在发布前一个小时、半个小时或仅仅几根K线之前不交易并不容易确定。除
is
to avoid exposure when such news comes out. Whether this means
了其他因素外，这可能取决于个人的风险偏好、技术图形以及发布前市场的整
not
trading an hour, a half hour or just a few bars prior to the release is
体活动，以及报告本身的显著性。
not so easy to point out. Among other things, it could depend on one's
appetite for risk, the technical picture and the overall activity of the pre­
news market, as well as the perceived significance of the report itself.
Very often the significance of an upcoming report can already be
在即将发布的报告中，市场的交易方式往往可以提前判断其重要性。如果价
gauged by watching the way the market trades up towards the release.
格走势在几个小时内保持平稳，这可能表明大资金方在事件来临前保持低调；
If the price action goes flat for several hours on end, this could be an
在这种情况下，我们常常会看到新闻发布的瞬间出现剧烈反应。
indication that big parties are laying low in anticipation of the event; in
such cases, we often see a vicious response the very second the news
comes out.
这时，
144
Chapter 6
Manual Exits News Report Exit
-
Prior to the release, it is not uncommon for prices to break away from
what appears to be acceptable buildup, but these can be highly poison­
ous breakouts to play, for obvious reasons, and so caution is definitely
warranted.
When already in position, with a news report slowly drawing near,
we basically have three options at our disposal: (a) stay in and take our
chances on the news, (b) reduce exposure by taking off part of the posi­
tion, or (c) get out of the way altogether.
To establish a course of action, let us ignore the option of reducing
exposure (too arbitrary to discuss) and just look at the situation from
an in-or-out perspective. First there is the weight of the report. Since
not all releases tend to cause a hefty response, not all of them need to
be feared. Reports and events to always watch out for are: nonfarm
payroll (NFP), housing and production, job and unemployment, inter­
est rate decisions, and of course the non-number incidents like central
bank speeches and the like. The exact time of these releases are often
scheduled well in advance and can be found on any thorough Econom­
ic Calendar freely available on the web. Not seldom their significance
(possible impact) is rated on these sites as well. Cross-checking two
calendars could never hurt.
Understandably, not all instruments are equally affected by what­
ever news is released. Since most reports recur on a monthly basis,
establishing their significance beforehand will be time well spent. While
nasty surprises can never be fully prevented, a rather dependable way
to assess a market's sensitivity is to scroll back through a year of intra­
day price action, take note of all sudden blasts that are obviously out
of the ordinary-probably no more than two or three per week in your
time zone-and compare them with the tables of the economic calendar
of that year (take heed also of daylight savings time) . Should a certain
report have little impact on your particular instrument, there is no real
reason to shun the event when already in the market, or when aiming
to take position.
When it comes to the eur/ usd, and most other US dollar crosses, the
biggest impact on prices can be expected at 1 4:30 CET-an hour before
the US stock markets open-and to a lesser extent at 16:00. European
145
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits 新闻报告退出
News Report Exit
手动退出
-
Prior to the release, it is not uncommon for prices to break away from
在发布之前，价格突破看似合理的积累并不罕见，但这些突破可能是非常危险的
what appears to be acceptable buildup, but these can be highly poison­
，显而易见，因此必须谨慎对待。
ous breakouts to play, for obvious reasons, and so caution is definitely
warranted.
When already in position, with a news report slowly drawing near,
当我们已经处于某个位置，新闻报告缓缓逼近时，我们基本上有三种选择
we
basically have three options at our disposal: (a) stay in and take our
：（a）继续持有并冒险等待新闻，（b）通过减持部分头寸来降低风险，或（c
chances on the news, (b) reduce exposure by taking off part of the posi­
）完全退出。
tion, or (c) get out of the way altogether.
To establish a course of action, let us ignore the option of reducing
为了确定行动方案，我们忽略减持风险的选项（因为太随意而不值得讨论）
exposure (too arbitrary to discuss) and just look at the situation from
，仅从进出市场的角度来看情况。首先要考虑报告的重要性。并非所有的发布
an in-or-out perspective. First there is the weight of the report. Since
都会引起剧烈反应，因此并非所有的发布都需要被畏惧。始终需要关注的报告
not all releases tend to cause a hefty response, not all of them need to
和事件包括：非农就业人数（NFP）、住房和生产、就业和失业、利率决策，以
be feared. Reports and events to always watch out for are: nonfarm
及当然还有一些非数字事件，如中央银行的讲话等。这些发布的确切时间通常
payroll (NFP), housing and production, job and unemployment, inter­
提前安排好，可以在网上找到任何详尽的经济日历。这些网站上通常也会对其
est rate decisions, and of course the non-number incidents like central
重要性（可能的影响）进行评级。交叉检查两个日历绝对不会有坏处。
bank speeches and the like. The exact time of these releases are often
scheduled well in advance and can be found on any thorough Econom­
ic Calendar freely available on the web. Not seldom their significance
(possible impact) is rated on these sites as well. Cross-checking two
calendars could never hurt.
Understandably, not all instruments are equally affected by what­
可以理解，并非所有的金融工具都同样受到发布的新闻影响。由于大多数报
ever news is released. Since most reports recur on a monthly basis,
告每月都会出现，因此提前确定其重要性将是值得的。虽然恶劣的意外情况永
establishing
their significance beforehand will be time well spent. While
远无法完全避免，但评估市场敏感性的一种相对可靠的方法是回顾过去一年的
nasty
surprises can never be fully prevented, a rather dependable way
日内价格走势，注意所有明显异常的突然波动——在你的时区内，可能每周只
to assess a market's sensitivity is to scroll back through a year of intra­
有两到三次，并将其与该年经济日历的表格进行比较（同时也要注意夏令时）
day price action, take note of all sudden blasts that are obviously out
。如果某个报告对你的特定金融工具影响不大，那么在已经进入市场或打算建
of the ordinary-probably no more than two or three per week in your
仓时，实际上没有理由回避该事件。
time zone-and compare them with the tables of the economic calendar
of that year (take heed also of daylight savings time) . Should a certain
report have little impact on your particular instrument, there is no real
reason to shun the event when already in the market, or when aiming
to take position.
When it comes to the eur/ usd, and most other US dollar crosses, the
就欧元/美元及大多数其他美元交叉货币对而言，价格的最大影响预计在中欧
biggest impact on prices can be expected at 1 4:30 CET-an hour before
时间14:30——即美国股市开盘前一小时——以及在16:00时影响较小。欧洲
the US stock markets open-and to a lesser extent at 16:00. European
145
Understanding Price Action
reports are generally released at 08:00 and 1 1 :00. But do take into
account that not all of these releases need to be feared, otherwise no
trading ever gets done.
It is easy to avoid the news when still on the sidelines, but what if we
are already positioned in the market-should we just get out no mat­
ter what, or will the current status of the open position have a say in
things? Let's delve into this more deeply by comparing two hypothetical
open positions: prior to the release one trade is running, say, 1 5 pip
in the plus and the other currently 5 pip in the red. Assuming further
(wrongly) that a very fat news spike would either take out the target or
the stop based on the original bracket order settings (20/ 1 0), we can
quickly establish that the prospects on both ventures are not exactly
equal. The profitable trade could make an additional 5 pip in a favor­
able spike, but could lose 25 pip the other way around (measured from
its current profitable position) . On the non-profitable trade, the situa­
tion is reversed. Now the venture could lose an extra 5 pip at the most,
whereas it stands to rake in 25 pip should prices spike favorably.
The above is just one example of comparison. Should we tweak these
numbers a little, it isn't hard to find the theoretical tipping point be­
tween bailing out and staying in, which would reside at a current profit
of 5 pip: either win an extra 1 5 pip in a favorable spike, or lose 1 5 pip
when shaken out.
Unfortunately, in practice none of this holds up. The main reason is
that we can trust neither the market nor the platform to honor our stop
should prices spike adversely. Remember, the stop side of the bracket is
a market order, meaning it will be triggered as soon as prices hit upon
it, but the platform will not necessarily fill the order at the requested
price . If not, this is referred to as slippage.
In relatively normal conditions, slippage on a stop will seldom exceed
a few pipettes (tenths of a pip) . Yet on a news spike exit, slippage can
be huge. Of course, the true extent of the damage will be a function of
the actual spike and the liquidity in it, but the speed with which the
trading platform can fill the order may have an effect on the outcome
as well. Another element of concern is that the bid/ ask spread may be
raised artificially during the release, further crippling a trader's odds to
146
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
reports are generally released at 08:00 and 1 1 :00. But do take into
报告通常在08:00和11:00发布。但请注意，并非所有这些发布都需要被恐惧，否则交易
account that not all of these releases need to be feared, otherwise no
就永远无法进行。
trading ever gets done.
It is easy to avoid the news when still on the sidelines, but what if we
当仍在场外时，避免新闻是很容易的，但如果我们已经在市场中持仓——
are already positioned in the market-should we just get out no mat­
我们是否应该无论如何都退出，还是当前的持仓状态会对事情产生影响？让我
ter what, or will the current status of the open position have a say in
们通过比较两个假设的持仓来更深入地探讨这个问题：在发布之前，一笔交易
things? Let's delve into this more deeply by comparing two hypothetical
盈利15点，另一笔交易目前亏损5点。进一步假设（错误地）认为一个非常大
open
positions: prior to the release one trade is running, say, 1 5 pip
的新闻波动将根据原始的区间订单设置（20/10）来触发目标或止损，我们可以
in
the plus and the other currently 5 pip in the red. Assuming further
迅速确定这两笔交易的前景并不完全相同。盈利的交易在有利的波动中可能再
(wrongly) that a very fat news spike would either take out the target or
赚取5点，但在不利的情况下可能会损失25点（从当前盈利的位置测量）。在
the stop based on the original bracket order settings (20/ 1 0), we can
亏损的交易中，情况正好相反。现在这笔交易最多可能损失5点，而在价格有
quickly establish that the prospects on both ventures are not exactly
利波动时则可能赚取25点。
equal. The profitable trade could make an additional 5 pip in a favor­
able spike, but could lose 25 pip the other way around (measured from
its current profitable position) . On the non-profitable trade, the situa­
tion is reversed. Now the venture could lose an extra 5 pip at the most,
whereas it stands to rake in 25 pip should prices spike favorably.
The
above is just one example of comparison. Should we tweak these
以上只是比较的一个例子。如果我们稍微调整这些数字，就不难找到在救助和
numbers a little, it isn't hard to find the theoretical tipping point be­
继续持有之间的理论临界点，这个临界点在当前利润为5个点时：要么在有利的
tween
bailing out and staying in, which would reside at a current profit
波动中多赢15个点，要么在被震荡出局时损失15个点。
of 5 pip: either win an extra 1 5 pip in a favorable spike, or lose 1 5 pip
when shaken out.
Unfortunately,
in practice none of this holds up. The main reason is
不幸的是，在实际操作中，这些都不成立。主要原因是我们既不能信任市
that we can trust neither the market nor the platform to honor our stop
场，也不能信任平台在价格不利波动时会遵守我们的止损价格。请记住，止损
should prices spike adversely. Remember, the stop side of the bracket is
单是市场订单，这意味着一旦价格触及，就会被触发，但平台不一定会以请
a
market order, meaning it will be triggered as soon as prices hit upon
求的价格成交。如果没有，这被称为滑点。
it, but the platform will not necessarily fill the order at the requested
price . If not, this is referred to as slippage.
In relatively normal conditions, slippage on a stop will seldom exceed
在相对正常的情况下，止损的滑点通常不会超过几分（十分之一个点）。
a few pipettes (tenths of a pip) . Yet on a news spike exit, slippage can
然而，在新闻波动退出时，滑点可能会非常大。当然，损失的真实程度将取决
be
huge. Of course, the true extent of the damage will be a function of
于实际的波动和其中的流动性，但交易平台填充订单的速度也可能会影响结果
the actual spike and the liquidity in it, but the speed with which the
。另一个需要关注的因素是，在发布期间，买卖差价可能会被人为提高，从而
trading
platform can fill the order may have an effect on the outcome
进一步削弱交易者的机会。
as well. Another element of concern is that the bid/ ask spread may be
raised artificially during the release, further crippling a trader's odds to
146
Chapter 6
Manual Exits News Report Exit
-
come out unscathed. Incurring slippage of more than 10 pip (on top of
the stop) is certainly not unheard of. To measure to possibility of truly
unsavory slippage, here's a handy rule of thumb: if you repeatedly find
your platform responding rather sluggishly in a calm environment, you
are going to get smacked for sure when caught disadvantageously in a
news spike event. And even more so with the spread cranked up.
Fortunately, throughout the years things have improved consider­
ably and many brokers now can handle spikes without causing their
customers excessive slippage, but there is still no guarantee not to be
hurt even on the best of trading platforms.
In all fairness it should be noted that instead of fearing the news,
plenty of traders have come up with strategies solely designed to exploit
the spike potential, but little is known as to their rate of success. My
definite advice would be to shun the news rather than try to trade it,
and to get out of the way, rather than stay in. But since there are quite
a few variables at work, all news report situations stand by themselves
and are best judged accordingly.
A final warning: at the end of the US session (basically at the close of
the US stock markets), prices very often trail sideways in a hibernating
,
mode until the Asian markets open up for the day several hours later.
If still in position on an otherwise valid trade, it is up to personal dis­
cretion whether to stay in or close up shop. The same basically holds
up for any trade that lies dead in the water for many bars on end (like
in the notorious lunch-hour doldrums). But under no circumstances
should an intraday position be left open when the markets close up for
the weekend. That can make for a rude awakening on the next Monday
seSSlOn.
147
Manual Exits - 新闻报告退出
News Report Exit
手动退出
Chapter 6
第六章
come out unscathed. Incurring slippage of more than 10 pip (on top of
毫发无损地走出来。遭受超过10个点的滑点（在止损之上）绝对不是闻所未闻
the stop) is certainly not unheard of. To measure to possibility of truly
的。为了衡量真正不愉快的滑点的可能性，这里有一个方便的经验法则：如果
unsavory
slippage, here's a handy rule of thumb: if you repeatedly find
你发现你的平台在平静的环境中反应缓慢，当在新闻尖峰事件中处于不利地
your platform responding rather sluggishly in a calm environment, you
位时，你肯定会受到重创。尤其是在点差被调高的情况下。
are going to get smacked for sure when caught disadvantageously in a
news spike event. And even more so with the spread cranked up.
Fortunately, throughout the years things have improved consider­
幸运的是，多年来情况有了显著改善，许多经纪商现在能够处理尖峰而不
ably and many brokers now can handle spikes without causing their
会给客户造成过多的滑点，但即使在最好的交易平台上，也不能保证不会受到
customers excessive slippage, but there is still no guarantee not to be
伤害。
hurt even on the best of trading platforms.
公平地说，应该指出的是，与其害怕新闻，许多交易者已经提出了专门设计
In
all fairness it should be noted that instead of fearing the news,
plenty
of traders have come up with strategies solely designed to exploit
用来利用尖峰潜力的策略，但关于它们的成功率知之甚少。我的明确建议是避
the
spike
potential, but little is known as to their rate of success. My
开新闻，而不是试图交易它，尽量避开，而不是停留在其中。但由于有很多变
definite advice would be to shun the news rather than try to trade it,
量在起作用，所有新闻报告情况都是独立的，最好根据具体情况进行判断。
and to get out of the way, rather than stay in. But since there are quite
a few variables at work, all news report situations stand by themselves
and are best judged accordingly.
A final warning: at the end of the US session (basically at the close of
最后的警告：在美国交易时段结束时（基本上是在美国股市收盘时），价格通
the US stock markets), prices very often trail sideways in a hibernating
常会在冬眠模式中横盘整理，直到几个小时后亚洲市场开盘。如果在一个有效的
,
mode until the Asian markets open up for the day several hours later.
交易中仍然持有头寸，是否继续持有或收盘完全取决于个人的判断。对于任何在
If still in position on an otherwise valid trade, it is up to personal dis­
多根K线中处于停滞状态的交易（如臭名昭著的午餐时间低迷），情况也是如此
cretion whether to stay in or close up shop. The same basically holds
。但在任何情况下，周末市场关闭时不应留有日内头寸。这可能会在下一个周一
up for any trade that lies dead in the water for many bars on end (like
的交易中带来意外的惊吓。
in the notorious lunch-hour doldrums). But under no circumstances
should an intraday position be left open when the markets close up for
the weekend. That can make for a rude awakening on the next Monday
seSSlOn.
147
Understanding Price Action
Resistance Exit
Since the 20 pip target is essentially a nontechnical objective, it isn't
hard to imagine an open position to run into serious resistance before
the full target is met. If so, rather than religiously abiding by the bracket
at the risk of the trade turning sour, an option could be to scratch the
trade right in the level of anticipated obstruction and be done. This
seems a fair approach, but it harbors an aspect of possible concern: if
manual intervention is allowed, this could open the door to on-the-fly
decision making and all sorts of fear-based exits that may ultimately
do more harm than good. Therefore, when adopting discretionary man­
agement techniques as part of the plan, it is absolutely vital to learn
to suppress the instinct of flight and to solely exit on chart technical
grounds.
A great way to mitigate the likelihood of an unintended scratch is
to always determine the resistance exit level prior to taking position. In
other words, a reduced target objective should be part of the plan from
the outset and not stem from a sudden urge to bail out.
Should we have put on a trade with the standard exit in mind, of
course at some point the position may run into fi wall of resistance not
present at the time of entry; when such a sideways cluster gets broken
adversely, this may call for intervention, too, but it is a different situ­
ation altogether. We will have a look at this in the following section on
the reversal exit.
Before delving into the technical specifics of the resistance exit, let
us first agree on a reasonable threshold beyond which this technique
becomes applicable. It makes sense to employ a minimum objective in
order to at least make the wager worth our while. When the 20 pip tar­
get is standard, how about, say, 1 4 pip. Of course, any trader can lower
this threshold at his own discretion, but I would advice not to go below
1 0 pip, so as to at least maintain an acceptable risk/ reward ratio of 1 : 1
(when trading with a 1 0 pip stop) .
Thus for now, if the perceived level of obstruction resides at a dis­
tance that would yield a profit of less than 1 4 pip-but let's not split
hairs-we simply skip the trade.
148
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
阻力退出
Resistance Exit
Since the 20 pip target is essentially a nontechnical objective, it isn't
由于20点的目标本质上是一个非技术性的目标，因此可以想象一个开放的头寸
hard
to imagine an open position to run into serious resistance before
在达到完整目标之前会遇到严重的阻力。如果是这样，与其严格遵循风险的限
the
full target is met. If so, rather than religiously abiding by the bracket
制，不如在预期阻碍的水平上平仓，了结交易。这似乎是一个公平的做法，但
at the risk of the trade turning sour, an option could be to scratch the
它隐藏着一个可能的担忧：如果允许手动干预，这可能会打开即时决策的大门
trade right in the level of anticipated obstruction and be done. This
，导致各种基于恐惧的退出，最终可能会造成更多的伤害。因此，在将自主管
seems a fair approach, but it harbors an aspect of possible concern: if
理技术作为计划的一部分时，绝对至关重要的是学会抑制逃避的本能，并仅根
manual
intervention is allowed, this could open the door to on-the-fly
据图表技术理由退出。
decision making and all sorts of fear-based exits that may ultimately
do more harm than good. Therefore, when adopting discretionary man­
agement techniques as part of the plan, it is absolutely vital to learn
to suppress the instinct of flight and to solely exit on chart technical
grounds.
A great way to mitigate the likelihood of an unintended scratch is
减少意外划伤的可能性的一种好方法是始终在入场前确定阻力退出水平。换
to always determine the resistance exit level prior to taking position. In
句话说，降低目标目标应该是计划的一部分，而不是出于突然想要退出的冲动。
other words, a reduced target objective should be part of the plan from
the outset and not stem from a sudden urge to bail out.
Should we have put on a trade with the standard exit in mind, of
如果我们在心中设定了标准退出的交易，当然在某个时刻，头寸可能会遇到入
course
at some point the position may run into fi wall of resistance not
场时不存在的阻力墙；当这样的横向集群被不利突破时，这也可能需要干预，但
present at the time of entry; when such a sideways cluster gets broken
这完全是另一种情况。我们将在接下来的关于反转退出的部分中对此进行探讨。
adversely, this may call for intervention, too, but it is a different situ­
ation altogether. We will have a look at this in the following section on
the reversal exit.
Before delving into the technical specifics of the resistance exit, let
在深入探讨阻力退出的技术细节之前，让我们首先达成一致，确定一个合理
us
first agree on a reasonable threshold beyond which this technique
的阈值，超出该阈值后该技术才适用。设定一个最低目标是有意义的，以便至少
becomes
applicable. It makes sense to employ a minimum objective in
让我们的赌注值得。当20点目标是标准时，如何设定14点呢。当然，任何交易者
order to at least make the wager worth our while. When the 20 pip tar­
都可以根据自己的判断降低这个阈值，但我建议不要低于10点，以至少维持1:1的
get is standard, how about, say, 1 4 pip. Of course, any trader can lower
可接受风险/收益比（当以10点止损交易时）。
this threshold at his own discretion, but I would advice not to go below
1 0 pip, so as to at least maintain an acceptable risk/ reward ratio of 1 : 1
(when trading with a 1 0 pip stop) .
Thus
for now, if the perceived level of obstruction resides at a dis­
因此，目前如果感知到的阻力水平位于一个收益低于14个点的距离，我们
tance that would yield a profit of less than 1 4 pip-but let's not split
就干脆跳过这笔交易，不必斤斤计较。
hairs-we simply skip the trade.
148
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Resistance Exit
At all costs, do avoid entering into the habit of spontaneously low­
ering the bar on the target side of the bracket. Once this practice is
granted permission, chances are that premature scratching will soon
become the new standard, possibly depriving countless trades of their
full potential.
Notwithstanding the psychological challenges involved, judging the
validity of a resistance exit is a pretty straightforward practice. Prior
to taking position, typical levels to examine are a well-defined range
barrier, a nasty round number, a double top or bottom, a pattern line
extension, a technical test, or even a former high or Iow a little to the
left.
Before bailing out too quickly, though, it is important to assess the
nature of the market first: is it ranging or trending. An idea could be
not to, apply this technique in a very trending market, based on the
premise that a trend will sooner take out resistance than be obstructed
by it. Conversely, it does make sense to be more cautious in a ranging
market, especially near the highs and lows. Not only will there be more
contrarians on the prowl, bulls are likely to exit in the highs of a range,
and bears may do so in the lows. And these exits are likely to obstruct
the open trade as well.
All good intentions aside, the line between a valid resistance exit and
a fear-based scratch is still easily crossed in a live-market environment
with ego and emotions always ready to cloud one's vision and thoughts.
In the end, the only way to find out whether this technique pays off in
your game at all is not through the theoretical drawing board, but to
simply compare the assembled result of all your actual scratches with
the market's verdict had the trades been left untouched.
Following are some examples to give an impression of when a resis­
tance exit could become applicable from a technical perspective.
149
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits - Resistance Exit
手动退出-阻力退出
At all costs, do avoid entering into the habit of spontaneously low­
无论如何，都要避免养成随意降低目标区间下限的习惯。一旦这种做法被允
ering
the bar on the target side of the bracket. Once this practice is
许，过早止损很可能会成为新常态，可能会剥夺无数交易的全部潜力。
granted permission, chances are that premature scratching will soon
become the new standard, possibly depriving countless trades of their
full potential.
Notwithstanding the psychological challenges involved, judging the
尽管涉及的心理挑战不小，但判断阻力退出的有效性是一个相当简单的过程。
validity
of a resistance exit is a pretty straightforward practice. Prior
在入场之前，通常需要检查的典型水平包括明确的区间阻力、一个讨厌的整数、
to taking position, typical levels to examine are a well-defined range
双顶或双底、模式线延伸、技术测试，甚至是稍微偏左的前高或前低。
barrier, a nasty round number, a double top or bottom, a pattern line
extension, a technical test, or even a former high or Iow a little to the
left.
Before bailing out too quickly, though, it is important to assess the
然而，在过快放弃之前，首先评估市场的性质是很重要的：市场是震荡还是
nature
of the market first: is it ranging or trending. An idea could be
趋势。一个想法可能是在非常趋势的市场中不应用这种技术，基于一个前提，
not to, apply this technique in a very trending market, based on the
即趋势会比阻碍更快地突破阻力。相反，在震荡市场中，尤其是在高点和低点
premise that a trend will sooner take out resistance than be obstructed
附近，保持谨慎是有意义的。不仅会有更多的反向交易者在寻找机会，牛市可
by it. Conversely, it does make sense to be more cautious in a ranging
能会在震荡区间的高点退出，而熊市可能会在低点退出。这些退出很可能会阻
market,
especially near the highs and lows. Not only will there be more
碍开放的交易。
contrarians on the prowl, bulls are likely to exit in the highs of a range,
and bears may do so in the lows. And these exits are likely to obstruct
the open trade as well.
All good intentions aside, the line between a valid resistance exit and
尽管有良好的意图，但在实时市场环境中，有效的阻力退出和基于恐惧的平
a fear-based scratch is still easily crossed in a live-market environment
仓之间的界限仍然很容易被跨越，个人的自我和情绪总是准备模糊一个人的视野
with
ego and emotions always ready to cloud one's vision and thoughts.
和思维。最终，找出这种技术在你的交易中是否有效的唯一方法不是通过理论上
In
the end, the only way to find out whether this technique pays off in
的绘图板，而是简单地将你所有实际平仓的结果与市场的裁决进行比较，如果
your game at all is not through the theoretical drawing board, but to
这些交易没有被放弃的话。
simply compare the assembled result of all your actual scratches with
the market's verdict had the trades been left untouched.
Following are some examples to give an impression of when a resis­
以下是一些示例，以便从技术角度给出何时适用阻力退出的印象。
tance exit could become applicable from a technical perspective.
149
Understanding Price Action
1Fi g 6.11
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Figure 6.1 A great benefit of having the resistance exit in the toolbox of
operating tactics is the possibility to engage in wagers that do not set
up for a full 20 pip target. This is never an excuse to enter all over the
place, but it may allow for a little more aggression into the plan. Some
of the entries in the session above could strike the reader as somewhat
unconventional, but they are quite doable when not too greedy on the
target part. For now, just ignore whatever entry seems too opportunis­
tic, but do try to grasp the rationale behind the various resistance exit
calls.
In strict technical terms, there are only two levels in which to deploy
a resistance exit: on a bull-side trade, the position is either exited in
the low of a former high (or lows of a cluster) , or in the high of a former
high-whatever level comes first or is preferred in the situation at hand.
Vice versa on the bear side. But let us be mindful not to embrace the
resistance exit option too eagerly. Even in a ranging market our first
priority should be to check if we can still trade for a full target.
On the first trade above bar 2 , the breakout bar was sucked straight
into the vacuum of the 50-level magnet (3). Despite the fact that we lack
a bit of information on the left, it looks like an early exit may have been
uncalled for. All we have in the way of possible obstruction is the former
high of 1 and the round number a few pip higher up. In a very slow
moving chart, it could at times be an option to just cash in the profits in
such meager resistance, but there is usually little call for intervention
when we still have pressure, conditions and volume on our side (UK
opening hour here) .
150
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Fi g6.16 .11
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Figure
6.1 A great benefit of having the resistance exit in the toolbox
of
图
6.1 拥有阻力退出作为操作战术工具箱中的一大好处是可以进行不设定完整
20 点
operating tactics is the possibility to engage in wagers that do not set
目标的赌注。这绝不是在任何地方随意进入的借口，但它可能允许在计划中稍微更
up for a full 20 pip target. This is never an excuse to enter all over the
具攻击性。上面会话中的一些入场可能会让读者觉得有些不寻常，但当目标部分不
place, but it may allow for a little more aggression into the plan. Some
太贪婪时，这些都是相当可行的。现在，只需忽略任何看起来过于机会主义的入场
of
the entries in the session above could strike the reader as somewhat
，但请尽量理解各种阻力退出调用背后的理由。
unconventional, but they are quite doable when not too greedy on the
target part. For now, just ignore whatever entry seems too opportunis­
tic, but do try to grasp the rationale behind the various resistance exit
calls.
In strict technical terms, there are only two levels in which to deploy
从严格的技术术语来看，部署阻力退出的方式只有两个层次：在牛市交易中
a
resistance exit: on a bull-side trade, the position is either exited in
，头寸要么在前高的低点（或一组低点的低点）退出，要么在前高的高点退出—
the
low of a former high (or lows of a cluster) , or in the high of a former
—无论哪个水平先到达或在当时的情况下更受欢迎。反之在熊市方面。但我们要
high-whatever level comes first or is preferred in the situation at hand.
注意，不要过于急于接受阻力退出的选项。即使在区间市场中，我们的首要任务
Vice versa on the bear side. But let us be mindful not to embrace the
仍然是检查我们是否仍然可以交易以实现完整目标。
resistance exit option too eagerly. Even in a ranging market our first
priority should be to check if we can still trade for a full target.
On the first trade above bar 2 , the breakout bar was sucked straight
在第2根柱子上方的第一次交易中，突破柱子直接被吸入50级磁铁的真空中
into the vacuum of the 50-level magnet (3). Despite the fact that we lack
（3）。尽管我们在左侧缺乏一些信息，但看起来提前退出可能是不必要的。我
a bit of information on the left, it looks like an early exit may have been
们所面临的可能障碍只有1的前高和几点更高的整数位。在非常缓慢移动的图表
uncalled
for. All we have in the way of possible obstruction is the former
中，有时可以选择在如此微弱的阻力下兑现利润，但当我们仍然有压力、条件
high
of 1 and the round number a few pip higher up. In a very slow
和成交量在我们这一边时（这里是英国开盘时间），通常不需要干预。
moving chart, it could at times be an option to just cash in the profits in
such meager resistance, but there is usually little call for intervention
when we still have pressure, conditions and volume on our side (UK
opening hour here) .
150
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Resistance Exit
Note: The decision to stay in initially stood corrected, only to work
out favorably in the end; although merely an outcome by itself, this
provides a fine example of why the break-even exit on a first pullback
reaction is such poor practice on balance (low of 4 hit upon a triple, a
strong bounce candidate) . Why do traders indulge in such destructive
behavior? Could it be that their egos are forcing them to do so. For egos
do not think in probabilities, they have an agenda fully of their own: to
protect the mind from the pain and shame of seeing a once profitable
trade turn red. So they bang the exit button. Before caving in, though,
perhaps these traders should reflect on the following: missing out on
20 pip profit by scratching a valid trade at break-even is essentially
synonymous to being shaken out twice on a 10 pip stop. Surely the
ego should not like that one either. The point here: when considering
intervention tactics, the aim should be to exit in strength rather than
weakness. Hence the resistance exit.
The second long of this session, taken from the break of a three-bar
combi (6-7) , is a range variant of a pullback reversal. On this trade, the
first resistance in sight was the ceiling test with the low of bar 5. If not
yet fully on target there, closing out the trade in bar 8 is a valid call
(avoids also the pull of the adverse 50-level magnet) .
The pullback reversal trade above bar 9 (pretty aggressive entry con­
sidering the 5-8 double top to the left) is a classic intervention candidate .
Bulls may have shown themselves a little more dominant in this ses­
sion, the market was far from trending yet (note the rather flat 2 5ema),
and that always makes it a fair call to anticipate resistance in the highs.
As to the exit, the ceiling test with the low of bar 5 was no longer
a "usable" option because the touch of bar 8 in that level had already
mitigated its earlier significance. That basically left either the high of
bar 8 or the high of bar 5 to serve as an exit trigger. Since the former
may not yet have yielded the minimum profit of about 1 4 pip, the dotted
line was the level to gun for (scratch the trade in bar 1 0) .
The trade below bar 1 1 (pattern break combi short) i s another resis­
tance exit candidate. The market had only just begun to defy the earlier
bullish pressure, and so it could be rightfully questioned whether this
short set up bearishly enough to shoot for a full 20 pip target. Since the
151
Chapter 6
第六章
手动退出 - 阻力退出
Manual Exits - Resistance Exit
Note: The decision to stay in initially stood corrected, only to work
注意：最初的留在决定被纠正，最终却变得有利；尽管这仅仅是一个结果，
out
favorably in the end; although merely an outcome by itself, this
但这提供了一个很好的例子，说明在第一次回调反应时以保本退出是多么糟糕
provides a fine example of why the break-even exit on a first pullback
的做法（在三重底部触及的低点，强劲反弹的候选者）。为什么交易者会沉迷
reaction
is such poor practice on balance (low of 4 hit upon a triple, a
于这种破坏性的行为？难道是因为他们的自我迫使他们这样做吗？因为自我并
strong bounce candidate) . Why do traders indulge in such destructive
不以概率思考，它们有着完全自己的议程：保护心灵免受看到曾经盈利的交易
变成亏损的痛苦和羞愧。因此，他们猛按退出按钮。然而，在屈服之前，也许
behavior?
Could it be that their egos are forcing them to do so. For egos
do not think in probabilities, they have an agenda fully of their own: to
这些交易者应该反思以下几点：通过在保本时抓住一个有效交易而错过20点利
protect
the mind from the pain and shame of seeing a once profitable
润，基本上等同于在10点止损上被震荡出局两次。自我肯定也不喜欢这个观点
trade
turn red. So they bang the exit button. Before caving in, though,
。这里的要点是：在考虑干预策略时，目标应该是在强势中退出，而不是在弱
perhaps
these traders should reflect on the following: missing out on
势中。因此，阻力退出。
20 pip profit by scratching a valid trade at break-even is essentially
synonymous to being shaken out twice on a 10 pip stop. Surely the
ego should not like that one either. The point here: when considering
intervention tactics, the aim should be to exit in strength rather than
weakness. Hence the resistance exit.
The
second long of this session, taken from the break of a three-bar
本次会议的第二个长线交易，取自三条组合（6-7）的休息时间，是一种回
combi (6-7) , is a range variant of a pullback reversal. On this trade, the
调反转的范围变体。在这笔交易中，首个可见的阻力是与第5根柱子的低点的
first resistance in sight was the ceiling test with the low of bar 5. If not
天花板测试。如果尚未完全达到目标，在第8根柱子收盘时平仓是一个有效的
yet fully on target there, closing out the trade in bar 8 is a valid call
选择（也避免了不利的50级磁铁的拉扯）。
(avoids also the pull of the adverse 50-level magnet) .
The
pullback reversal trade above bar 9 (pretty aggressive entry con­
第9根柱子上方的回调反转交易（考虑到左侧的5-8双顶，这是一种相当激进
sidering
the 5-8 double top to the left) is a classic intervention candidate .
的入场）是经典的干预候选。尽管多头在本次会议中可能表现得更为主导，但
Bulls may have shown themselves a little more dominant in this ses­
市场远未形成趋势（注意相当平坦的25ema），这总是使得在高点预期阻力成为
sion, the market was far from trending yet (note the rather flat 2 5ema),
合理的选择。至于退出，第5根柱子的低点的天花板测试不再是一个“可用”的选
and
that always makes it a fair call to anticipate resistance in the highs.
项，因为第8根柱子在该水平的触及已经减弱了其早期的重要性。这基本上只剩
As to the exit, the ceiling test with the low of bar 5 was no longer
下第8根柱子的高点或第5根柱子的高点作为退出触发器。由于前者可能尚未
a
"usable" option because the touch of bar 8 in that level had already
产生大约14点的最低利润，因此虚线是要追逐的水平（在第10根柱子时平仓）
mitigated
its earlier significance. That basically left either the high of
。
bar 8 or the high of bar 5 to serve as an exit trigger. Since the former
may not yet have yielded the minimum profit of about 1 4 pip, the dotted
line was the level to gun for (scratch the trade in bar 1 0) .
The trade below bar 1 1 (pattern break combi short) i s another resis­
在第11根柱子下方的交易（模式突破组合空头）是另一个阻力退出候选。市
tance exit candidate. The market had only just begun to defy the earlier
场刚刚开始违背早期的看涨压力，因此可以合理质疑这个空头设置是否足够看
bullish
pressure, and so it could be rightfully questioned whether this
跌，以追求完整的20点目标。由于
short set up bearishly enough to shoot for a full 20 pip target. Since the
151
Understanding Price Action
low of bar 9 resided too close to entry, the ceiling test with the high of
bar 7 was the first level to meet the requirements of a reduced target
(scratch the trade in bar 1 2 on the dotted line for perhaps a little under
14 pip) .
Not much later, bar 1 3 set up a pattern break pullback short in a
bearish triple. This bar's message clearly defied the intentions of the
higher low at 1 2 , but the chart itself still wasn't overly bearish. Should
we decide to take another shot on the sell side here, best to do so with
a resistance exit in mind.
When in position on the break below bar 1 3 , there is little point in
fretting over the low of bar 1 2 as potential obstruction; if that level was
already reason for concern, about 10 pip out, then we shouldn't have
risked capital on this offer in first place. Therefore, the first level to
qualify as a valid resistance exit was the former low of bar 6 (exit in bar
14). Considering the mean features of bar 14, the low of bar 2 may have
been an exit level to shoot for as well (low of the range).
IFig 6.21
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Figure 6.2 Before we address the exit on the long a�ve bar 9 , let us
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consider the price action up to that point. Clearly, this market was in
ranging mode. Should we have wrapped a box around it, the top barrier
may have been plotted across the high of bar 1 (ignoring the false high
at 3), and the bottom barrier beneath the low of bar 2 . Take specific note
of the failed bull break above bar 5. Not only was this a continuation at­
tempt in the highs of a range, progression 3-5 was an awfully small flag
compared to the pole from which it hung (2-3) ; and the trade suffered
152
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
第9根柱子的低点距离入场点太近，因此第7根柱子的高点的天花板测试是满足
low of bar 9 resided too close to entry, the ceiling test with the high of
减少目标要求的第一个水平（在第12根柱子上划掉交易，可能会略低于14点）
bar
7 was the first level to meet the requirements of a reduced target
(scratch the trade in bar 1 2 on the dotted line for perhaps a little under
。
14 pip) .
Not much later, bar 1 3 set up a pattern break pullback short in a
不久之后，第13根柱子设置了一个模式突破回调空头，在一个看跌的三重形态中
bearish
triple. This bar's message clearly defied the intentions of the
。这根柱子传达的信息显然违背了第12根柱子的高低，但图表本身仍然不是过于看
higher
low at 1 2 , but the chart itself still wasn't overly bearish. Should
跌。如果我们决定在这里再次尝试卖出，最好考虑以阻力退出为目标。
we decide to take another shot on the sell side here, best to do so with
a resistance exit in mind.
When in position on the break below bar 1 3 , there is little point in
在第13根柱子下方的突破位置时，担心第12根柱子的低点作为潜在障碍是
fretting over the low of bar 1 2 as potential obstruction; if that level was
没有意义的；如果那个水平已经是担忧的理由，约10个点的距离，那么我们就
already reason for concern, about 10 pip out, then we shouldn't have
不应该在这个报价上冒险。因此，作为有效的阻力退出的第一个水平是第6根
risked capital on this offer in first place. Therefore, the first level to
柱子的前低（在第14根柱子退出）。考虑到第14根柱子的均值特征，第2根柱
qualify as a valid resistance exit was the former low of bar 6 (exit in bar
子的低点也可能是一个可以追求的退出水平（范围的低点）。
14). Considering the mean features of bar 14, the low of bar 2 may have
been an exit level to shoot for as well (low of the range).
IFig
图6.26.21
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欧元/美元
分钟
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Figure 6.2 Before we address the exit on the long a�ve bar 9 , let us
在我们讨论第9根柱子上方的多头退出之前，让我们先考虑到那时的价格走势。
consider
the price action up to that point. Clearly, this market was in
显然，这个市场处于区间模式。如果我们给它包裹一个框，顶部障碍可能会绘
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ranging
mode. Should we have wrapped a box around it, the top barrier
制在第1根柱子的高点上（忽略第3根柱子的虚假高点），底部障碍则在第2根柱
may have been plotted across the high of bar 1 (ignoring the false high
子的低点下方。请特别注意第5根柱子上方的失败牛市突破。这不仅是一个在区
at 3), and the bottom barrier beneath the low of bar 2 . Take specific note
间高点的持续尝试，3-5的进展与其悬挂的杆（2-3）相比，实在是一个非常小的
of the failed bull break above bar 5. Not only was this a continuation at­
旗帜；而这笔交易遭受了损失。
tempt in the highs of a range, progression 3-5 was an awfully small flag
compared to the pole from which it hung (2-3) ; and the trade suffered
152
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Resistance Exit
strong risk of the adverse magnet to boot. A poor break indeed.
More interesting was the 6-9 buildup in the middle of the range.
Bulls again had been working their way up from the lows, but this time
faced more opposition. These type of cluster progressions always call
for attention. In fact, they harbor within them the very principle that
lies at the base of our operating policy: to see solid buildup-attack and
defense-prior to taking position.
An interesting variant of the flag formation is the ascending or de­
scending triangle. In the ascending version, the pattern is capped by a
horizontal line across the highs, with ascending lows at the other end.
Progression 7-8-9 , hanging from the pole 6-7, is a good example.
With prices thus capped on one side while pushing up at the other,
the pressure can only build up. This implies that the ascending triangle
might pop on the bull side, as with a regular bull-flag pattern. Should
we aim to participate along this line of thought, the first task is to find
a valid signal bar to trade off (9).
Always preferable is to see a signal bar close strongly against a bar­
rier of interest, or perhaps a little through, but this is not a mandatory
element of setup validity: at times, we could act on the break of a bar
before the pattern barrier itself is broken. In such cases, very important
is to assess whether the situation is truly ripe for a break, meaning
the buildup has to be substantial. Of course, conservative traders can
always skip; should they miss the initial breakout, there is still a rea­
sonable chance to be offered an entry in second instance (pattern break
pullback long above bar 1 0) .
Note: An optional technique here, but best applied sparingly, i s not
to trade the break of bar 9 straightaway, but to fire long on the break of
the pattern line itself, a few pip higher up. A decent marker with which
to measure this alternative is to check whether a standard stop would
still survive a quick retest of the 25ema. If not, ad hoc adjustments at
the stop side are always an option, too.
Let us examine the exit options on the trades above bar 9 and 10.
The first obstructive element to have taken into account was a ceiling
test with the low of bar 4, about 1 3 pip out when measured from the
break of bar 9 . In regard to the break of bar 10, however, this level re-
153
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits
- Resistance Exit
手动退出
- 阻力退出
strong risk of the adverse magnet to boot. A poor break indeed.
强烈的风险来自于不利的磁场。确实是一个糟糕的突破。
More interesting was the 6-9 buildup in the middle of the range.
更有趣的是在区间中间的6-9的积累。多头再次从低点开始上升，但这次面
Bulls
again had been working their way up from the lows, but this time
临更多的阻力。这种类型的集群进展总是引起注意。事实上，它们蕴含着我
faced more opposition. These type of cluster progressions always call
们操作政策基础的原则：在采取位置之前，观察坚实的积累攻击和防御。
for attention. In fact, they harbor within them the very principle that
lies at the base of our operating policy: to see solid buildup-attack and
defense-prior to taking position.
An interesting variant of the flag formation is the ascending or de­
一种有趣的旗形变体是上升三角形或下降三角形。在上升版本中，图形的高
scending
triangle. In the ascending version, the pattern is capped by a
点被一条水平线所限制，而另一端则是上升的低点。7-8-9的进程，悬挂在6-7的
horizontal line across the highs, with ascending lows at the other end.
杆上，是一个很好的例子。
Progression 7-8-9 , hanging from the pole 6-7, is a good example.
With prices thus capped on one side while pushing up at the other,
由于价格在一侧受到限制，而在另一侧则向上推升，压力只能不断积累。
the pressure can only build up. This implies that the ascending triangle
这意味着上升三角形可能会在牛市一侧突破，就像常规的牛旗形模式一样。
might
pop on the bull side, as with a regular bull-flag pattern. Should
如果我们打算沿着这个思路参与，第一步就是找到一个有效的信号柱进行交
we
aim to participate along this line of thought, the first task is to find
易（9）。
a valid signal bar to trade off (9).
Always preferable is to see a signal bar close strongly against a bar­
最好看到信号柱强劲地收盘在一个重要的障碍上，或者稍微突破，但这并不
rier of interest, or perhaps a little through, but this is not a mandatory
是设置有效性的强制性元素：有时，我们可以在图形障碍本身被突破之前就对一
element
of setup validity: at times, we could act on the break of a bar
根柱子的突破采取行动。在这种情况下，评估情况是否真的适合突破是非常重要
before the pattern barrier itself is broken. In such cases, very important
的，这意味着积累必须是相当可观的。当然，保守的交易者可以选择跳过；如果
is to assess whether the situation is truly ripe for a break, meaning
他们错过了初始突破，仍然有合理的机会在第二次机会中获得入场（在柱子10上
the buildup has to be substantial. Of course, conservative traders can
方的图形突破回调多头）。
always skip; should they miss the initial breakout, there is still a rea­
sonable chance to be offered an entry in second instance (pattern break
pullback long above bar 1 0) .
Note: An optional technique here, but best applied sparingly, i s not
注意：这里有一个可选的技巧，但最好谨慎使用，即不要直接交易第9根K
to
trade the break of bar 9 straightaway, but to fire long on the break of
线的突破，而是在形态线的突破处做多，略高于该位置几个点。衡量这种替
the pattern line itself, a few pip higher up. A decent marker with which
代方案的一个不错的指标是检查标准止损是否仍然能在快速重新测试25EMA时
to measure this alternative is to check whether a standard stop would
幸存。如果不能，也可以随时对止损端进行临时调整。
still survive a quick retest of the 25ema. If not, ad hoc adjustments at
the stop side are always an option, too.
Let us examine the exit options on the trades above bar 9 and 10.
让我们检查一下第9和第10根K线上方交易的退出选项。首先要考虑的阻碍因素是第4根K线的低点形成
The
first obstructive element to have taken into account was a ceiling
的顶部测试，从第9根K线的突破处测量大约有13个点。然而，关于第10根K线的突破，这个水平太接近，
test
with the low of bar 4, about 1 3 pip out when measured from the
无法达到最低目标；这使得第3根K线的高点成为第一个潜在的退出候选。（这里有一个替代策略，精明
break
of bar 9 . In regard to the break of bar 10, however, this level re但并非没有风险，即在第3根K线上方略微部署一个阻力退出，以预期出现虚假的高点反转。）
153
Understanding Price Action
sided too close to meet the minimum target; this left the high of bar 3
as the first exit candidate in line. (An alternative tactic here, savvy but
not without risk, is to deploy a resistance exit a little above bar 3, in
anticipation of a false high turnaround. )
A s stated, even i n a ranging market i t may not always b e necessary
to exit a trade in resistance. When the buildup prior to entry is of very
fine quality, prices may very well pop beyond whatever obstruction lies
on the way. As to the buildup within the ascending triangle, this was
quite fat indeed, and so it may have been decided to simply let the
bracket handle the trade above bar 9 . On the higher entry above bar 10,
however, there was a greater risk for opposition because the high o f bar
3 now needed to be cleared quite a bit to get to target.
With multiple options to consider, some supposedly better than oth­
ers, how is a trader to decide on the best course of action? Alas, there
can be no easy answer to this question, but always a suitable tactic, in
any time of doubt, is to embrace the power of common sense. It may not
provide you with the best statistical alternative in the situation at hand,
but at least your calls will be defensible, which is all that is required to
come out ahead in this field.
How about the short below combi 1 3 . A little before, the bullish dom­
inance had taken a severe hit in the 1 1 - 1 2 bear attack, but there was
still a lot of work for the bears to be done to clean out the resistance
(chart support) within the earlier triangle (7-8-9) ; that was indeed a
pretty thick block to eat through and probably the reason also why the
1 2 - 1 3 progression got formed in the first place. If we throw in some pat­
tern lines here, we can see that the latter was a bear-flag hanging from
the pole
1 1 - 1 2 , and situated outside a broken pattern line extension
(running up from the lows of 6).
Bulls had put u p a decent fight within this flag, but the triple o f the
average, the round number and the pattern line extension proved too
strong to crack. This is important info to obtain, because a failMre to
break free from the bearish grip could portend demoralization on the
part of the bulls, and possibly their capitulation a little further down
the line. In compliance with standard operating policy, there were two
154
Understanding
理解价格行为Price Action
sided too close to meet the minimum target; this left the high of bar 3
（这里有一个替代策略，精明但并非没有风险，即在第3根K线上方略微部署一
as the first exit candidate in line. (An alternative tactic here, savvy but
个阻力退出，以预期出现虚假的高点反转。）
not without risk, is to deploy a resistance exit a little above bar 3, in
anticipation of a false high turnaround. )
A s stated, even i n a ranging market i t may not always b e necessary
如前所述，即使在震荡市场中，也不一定总是需要在阻力位退出交易。当入
to exit a trade in resistance. When the buildup prior to entry is of very
场前的积累质量非常高时，价格可能会突破任何阻碍。至于上升三角形内的积
fine quality, prices may very well pop beyond whatever obstruction lies
累，确实相当强劲，因此可能决定让区间在第9根柱子上方处理交易。然而，
on the way. As to the buildup within the ascending triangle, this was
在第10根柱子上方的更高入场点，面临的反对风险更大，因为需要清除第3根柱
quite fat indeed, and so it may have been decided to simply let the
子的高点才能达到目标。
bracket handle the trade above bar 9 . On the higher entry above bar 10,
however, there was a greater risk for opposition because the high o f bar
3 now needed to be cleared quite a bit to get to target.
With multiple options to consider, some supposedly better than oth­
面对多个选项，一些看似比其他选项更好，交易者该如何决定最佳行动方案？
ers,
how is a trader to decide on the best course of action? Alas, there
唉，这个问题没有简单的答案，但在任何疑虑时，采用常识的力量总是一个合适
can
be no easy answer to this question, but always a suitable tactic, in
的策略。它可能不会为您提供当前情况下最佳的统计选择，但至少您的决策是可
any time of doubt, is to embrace the power of common sense. It may not
以辩护的，这就是在这个领域中获胜所需的一切。
provide you with the best statistical alternative in the situation at hand,
but at least your calls will be defensible, which is all that is required to
come out ahead in this field.
How about the13。在此之前，牛市的主导地位在
short below combi 1 3 . A little11-12
before,
the bullish dom­
关于下面的组合
的熊市攻击中遭受了严
inance had taken a severe hit in the 1 1 - 1 2 bear attack, but there was
重打击，但熊市仍需做大量工作，以清除早期三角形（7-8-9）内的阻力（图表支撑
still a lot of work for the bears to be done
clean out the resistance
）；这确实是一个相当厚的阻力区，可能也是
12-13 to
进程形成的原因。如果我们在
(chart support) within the earlier triangle (7-8-9)
that was indeed a
这里加入一些模式线，我们可以看到后者是一个悬挂在
11-12; 的杆上的熊旗，并位
pretty thick block to eat through
and probably the reason also why the
于一个破裂的模式线延伸之外（从
6 的低点向上延伸）。
1 2 - 1 3 progression got formed in the first place. If we throw in some pat­
tern lines here, we can see that the latter was a bear-flag hanging from
the pole
1 1 - 1 2 , and situated outside a broken pattern line extension
(running up from the lows of 6).
Bulls had put u p a decent fight within this flag, but the triple o f the
牛市在这个旗帜内进行了相当不错的抵抗，但平均值的三重、整数和模式
average, the round number and the pattern line extension proved too
线延伸证明太强，无法突破。这是获取的重要信息，因为未能摆脱熊市的控
strong
to crack. This is important info to obtain, because a failMre to
制可能预示着牛市的士气低落，甚至可能在稍后阶段出现投降。根据标准操
break free from the bearish grip could portend demoralization on the
作政策，出现了两个
part of the bulls, and possibly their capitulation a little further down
the line. In compliance with standard operating policy, there were two
154
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Resistance Exit
ways to have traded the flag breakout: either fire short below combi 1 3 ,
o r perhaps one bar earlier, o n the break o f the combi's "powerbar".
Note: It is important to realize that none of the examples shown in
this book will ever show up in the market again. Even if by some freak
miracle the present price action would mirror the exact same features
of some earlier event, then still there will be other players and other vol­
ume behind it. By this I mean to say that all situations are truly unique
and the best they can do is resemble one another. In other words, all we
can do is form ourselves a reasonable idea on the market's most likely
answer. When it comes to manual intervention, two options come to
mind: action or reaction. The resistance exit is clearly a function of the
first. By grabbing profits in a designated level of perceived resistance,
we deliberately take action without waiting for the market's response.
A good example would be to deploy an exit on the short in the dotted
line at 14. If we are to defend the reason behind this scratch, we could
start by saying that the market was back at the lower region of a range,
which is a danger zone to any short. Furthermore, observation has it
that when a double bottom is firmly in place (2-6) , prices tend to sooner
hammer in a higher bottom than a triple bottom. With this in mind, it
made sense to pick the ceiling test exit (dotted line) rather than the level
of the low of bar 6. Looking closely, the low of bar 14 was not only the
"ceiling" (floor) of the 3-6-7 arch, it was also a double bottom with the
low of bar 8, which further increased the bounce potential in the area.
The second popular management technique is to exit not in proactive
but in reactive fashion. Instead of aiming to bail out before the mar­
ket has a chance to turn adversely, this technique awaits the market's
response first and then determines the course of action, based on what­
ever shows up. As an example: bears still in position could have exited
above bar 16, in response to the faltering follow-through on the break
below the dotted line at 1 5 . We can refer to this as a reversal exit. In the
following section will examine this technique in more detail.
155
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual -Exits
- Resistance Exit
手动退出
阻力退出
ways to have traded the flag breakout: either fire short below combi 1 3 ,
交易旗形突破的方式：要么在组合13下方做空，要么可能在组合的“强势柱”突
o
r perhaps one bar earlier, o n the break o f the combi's "powerbar".
破时提前一根柱子。
Note: It is important to realize that none of the examples shown in
注意：重要的是要意识到，本书中展示的任何示例在市场上都不会再出现。
this book will ever show up in the market again. Even if by some freak
即使在某种奇迹般的情况下，当前的价格行为与早期事件的特征完全相同，那
miracle
the present price action would mirror the exact same features
么仍然会有其他参与者和其他交易量在背后。我的意思是说，所有情况都是独
of some earlier event, then still there will be other players and other vol­
一无二的，最好的情况是它们相似。换句话说，我们所能做的就是形成一个合
ume
behind it. By this I mean to say that all situations are truly unique
理的想法，关于市场最可能的反应。当涉及到手动干预时，有两个选项浮现在
and
the best they can do is resemble one another. In other words, all we
脑海中：行动或反应。阻力退出显然是第一个的一个函数。通过在一个被认为
can
do is form ourselves a reasonable idea on the market's most likely
是阻力的指定水平上获取利润，我们故意采取行动，而不是等待市场的反应。
answer.
When it comes to manual intervention, two options come to
一个好的例子是在虚线14处进行短期退出。如果我们要为这个平局辩护，我们
mind: action or reaction. The resistance exit is clearly a function of the
可以首先说市场回到了区间的下部区域，这对任何短期交易都是一个危险区。
first. By grabbing profits in a designated level of perceived resistance,
此外，观察表明，当双底稳固形成时（2-6），价格往往会更快地在更高的底部
we deliberately take action without waiting for the market's response.
上反弹，而不是三重底部。考虑到这一点，选择虚线的天花板测试退出而不是
A good example would be to deploy an exit on the short in the dotted
第6根柱子的低点是有意义的。仔细观察，第14根柱子的低点不仅是3-6-7拱形的“
line at 14. If we are to defend the reason behind this scratch, we could
天花板”（地板），它还是第8根柱子的低点的双底，这进一步增加了该区域的
start
by saying that the market was back at the lower region of a range,
反弹潜力。
which is a danger zone to any short. Furthermore, observation has it
that when a double bottom is firmly in place (2-6) , prices tend to sooner
hammer in a higher bottom than a triple bottom. With this in mind, it
made sense to pick the ceiling test exit (dotted line) rather than the level
of the low of bar 6. Looking closely, the low of bar 14 was not only the
"ceiling" (floor) of the 3-6-7 arch, it was also a double bottom with the
low of bar 8, which further increased the bounce potential in the area.
The
second popular management technique is to exit not in proactive
第二种流行的管理技巧是以被动的方式退出，而不是主动的方式。与其在市场
but
in reactive fashion. Instead of aiming to bail out before the mar­
有机会转向不利之前就退出，不如先等待市场的反应，然后根据出现的情况决定
ket has a chance to turn adversely, this technique awaits the market's
行动方向。举个例子：仍然持有空头头寸的交易者可以在第16根柱子上方退出，
response
first and then determines the course of action, based on what­
以应对在第15根柱子下方突破后跟进乏力的情况。我们可以将其称为反转退出。
ever shows up. As an example: bears still in position could have exited
在接下来的部分中，我们将更详细地研究这一技巧。
above bar 16, in response to the faltering follow-through on the break
below the dotted line at 1 5 . We can refer to this as a reversal exit. In the
following section will examine this technique in more detail.
155
Understanding Price Action
Reversal Exit
Before we delve in, allow me to start out with a few words of caution.
Since the reversal exit is based on a technical assessment that can only
be formed while in position, there is always a certain risk of bias within
its application. No trader takes pleasure in seeing a profitable trade
turn bad, and strong can be the urge to protect whatever gains are still
in place. But the trader be warned. Where improper usage of a resis­
tance exit may pocket some decent profits still, faulty implementation of
a reversal exit can come with serious regret; not only will there be little
profit left, if at all, not seldom the towel is thrown in at the worst pos­
sible moment: right when prices stand good chance to turn favorably
again. Enter the reversal exit trap.
That being said, when properly applied, the reversal exit is a fantas­
tic weapon to wield and can indeed save many a faltering trade from full
annihilation. How many times have we not seen a sideways develop­
ment build up against our position in a way that the chances of ever
reaching target appeared minimal at best.
What are the classic characteristics of such adverse development? As
is the case with all patterns, reversal formations come in many shapes
and sizes, but they do tend to share some very recognizable features
that portray the adverse pressures within. The easiest way to visualize
these patterns is to see them as either an M or W -variant. The M-shape,
for example, starts out with an upswing (left leg) , followed by a middle­
part (often containing a double-top element) and is then completed by
a downswing (right leg). In such a pattern, it is the break of the middle­
part section that could trigger a reversal exit.
Whenever a number of bars start to cluster in a relatively tight span,
ultimately prices can do only one of two things: they either break away
from this buildup to continue the former dominant pressure (think
flag) , or they break out at the other end in an attempt to initiate an M or
W -pattern reversal. In case of the latter, very important is to assess the
reversal pressure in its proper light. While it can never be fully prevent­
ed to get tricked out of a trade, not all adverse pressure is created equal.
Let us visualize a valid exit from the viewpoint of a sell-side wa-
156
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
反转退出
Reversal Exit
Before we delve in, allow me to start out with a few words of caution.
在深入探讨之前，请允许我先说几句警告。由于反转退出是基于只能在持仓时形
Since the reversal exit is based on a technical assessment that can only
成的技术评估，因此在其应用中总是存在一定的偏见风险。没有交易者愿意看到
be
formed while in position, there is always a certain risk of bias within
一个盈利的交易变坏，保护仍然存在的收益的强烈冲动可能会出现。但交易者需
its
application. No trader takes pleasure in seeing a profitable trade
谨慎。虽然不当使用阻力退出可能会获得一些可观的利润，但反转退出的错误实
turn bad, and strong can be the urge to protect whatever gains are still
施可能会带来严重的遗憾；不仅几乎没有利润可言，往往在最糟糕的时刻放弃：
in place. But the trader be warned. Where improper usage of a resis­
就在价格有很大机会再次转向有利的时候。进入反转退出的陷阱。
tance exit may pocket some decent profits still, faulty implementation of
a reversal exit can come with serious regret; not only will there be little
profit left, if at all, not seldom the towel is thrown in at the worst pos­
sible moment: right when prices stand good chance to turn favorably
again. Enter the reversal exit trap.
That
being said, when properly applied, the reversal exit is a fantas­
话虽如此，当正确应用时，反转退出确实是一种极好的武器，可以拯救许
tic
weapon to wield and can indeed save many a faltering trade from full
多岌岌可危的交易，避免完全毁灭。我们多少次看到横盘发展对我们的头寸施
annihilation. How many times have we not seen a sideways develop­
加压力，以至于达到目标的机会看起来微乎其微。
ment build up against our position in a way that the chances of ever
reaching target appeared minimal at best.
What are the classic characteristics of such adverse development? As
这种不利发展的经典特征是什么？与所有模式一样，反转形态有许多形状和
is
the case with all patterns, reversal formations come in many shapes
大小，但它们确实倾向于共享一些非常明显的特征，描绘出内部的不利压力。
and sizes, but they do tend to share some very recognizable features
最简单的方式是将这些模式视为M型或W型变体。例如，M形模式开始时有一个
that portray the adverse pressures within. The easiest way to visualize
上升（左腿），接着是一个中间部分（通常包含双顶元素），然后以一个下降
these
patterns is to see them as either an M or W -variant. The M-shape,
（右腿）结束。在这样的模式中，打破中间部分的区域可能会触发反转退出。
for example, starts out with an upswing (left leg) , followed by a middle­
part (often containing a double-top element) and is then completed by
a downswing (right leg). In such a pattern, it is the break of the middle­
part section that could trigger a reversal exit.
当一系列的价格柱开始在相对紧凑的范围内聚集时，价格最终只能做出两种
Whenever a number of bars start to cluster in a relatively tight span,
ultimately
prices can do only one of two things: they either break away
反应：要么突破这一积累，继续之前的主导趋势（想象一下旗形），要么在另
from this buildup to continue the former dominant pressure (think
一端突破，试图发起M形或W形的反转。在后者的情况下，评估反转压力至关重
flag) , or they break out at the other end in an attempt to initiate an M or
要。虽然永远无法完全避免被交易所欺骗，但并非所有的不利压力都是相同的
W -pattern reversal. In case of the latter, very important is to assess the
。让我们从卖方的角度可视化一个有效的退出。
reversal pressure in its proper light. While it can never be fully prevent­
ed to get tricked out of a trade, not all adverse pressure is created equal.
Let us visualize a valid exit from the viewpoint of a sell-side wa-
156
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
ger. Comfortably positioned in a profitable short (left leg of the W) , with
prices well on their way to target, a small cluster of bars starts to rebel
against our trade; the bull attacks within this cluster may not pose
an immediate threat, and all of it may still take place below a falling
25ema, but the action is worthy of attention if only for the fact that
prices fail to set new lows. The longer this standoff continues, the fat­
ter the cluster builds up and the bigger the potential impact of a break
either way. Therefore, if at some point prices fail to break out at the bot­
tom and instead a bullish powerbar pops up, this is a development not
likely to go unnoticed. When this powerbar then gets broken on top by
another bar, the market is sending out an even stronger message that
prices have no intention to drop further anytime soon. This situation
could call for a valid exit on the short.
When there is no adverse powerbar involved (or a combi version of it),
exit tactics are not necessarily off, but there is a stronger chance that
the cluster formation is still looked upon as a bear-flag variant, mean­
ing that bear parties may now be less tempted to let go of their shorts,
not even on a break of the current middle-part's high. And bulls may be
less eager to enter on it. Considering the stronger potential for a false
break, deploying a reversal exit may not be the smartest choice .
As the name suggests, the reversal exit is mostly a function of a
profitable trade turning sour (otherwise there is little to reverse) . This
implies that in many an instance we may be able to deploy the exit with
only minimal damage, or even for a tiny profit still. Or to put it in anoth­
er way, if the adverse pressure already starts to build up shortly after
entry, we are not just dealing with a faltering trade but with a faltering
breakout, and in most such cases it is probably best to let the bracket
stop take care of protection. Let's explore some practical examples to get
an impression of the tactics involved.
157
Chapter 6
第六章
手动退出 -Exits
反转退出
Manual
- Reversal Exit
ger. Comfortably positioned in a profitable short (left leg of the W) , with
作为一个舒适地处于盈利空头（W的左腿）的交易者，价格正朝着目标前进，
prices
well on their way to target, a small cluster of bars starts to rebel
但一小簇柱开始对我们的交易进行反抗；在这个簇内的牛市攻击可能不会立即
against our trade; the bull attacks within this cluster may not pose
构成威胁，所有这一切可能仍然发生在下跌的25ema之下，但这一行为值得关注
an
immediate threat, and all of it may still take place below a falling
，仅仅因为价格未能创出新低。这个僵持的时间越长，簇的积累就越多，突破
25ema, but the action is worthy of attention if only for the fact that
的潜在影响就越大。因此，如果在某个时刻价格未能在底部突破，而是出现了
prices
fail to set new lows. The longer this standoff continues, the fat­
一根看涨的强势柱，这一发展不太可能被忽视。当这根强势柱被另一根柱向上
ter
the cluster builds up and the bigger the potential impact of a break
突破时，市场发出的信息更加强烈，价格似乎没有进一步下跌的意图。这种情
either
way. Therefore, if at some point prices fail to break out at the bot­
况可能会要求在空头上进行有效的退出。
tom and instead a bullish powerbar pops up, this is a development not
likely to go unnoticed. When this powerbar then gets broken on top by
another bar, the market is sending out an even stronger message that
prices have no intention to drop further anytime soon. This situation
could call for a valid exit on the short.
When there is no adverse powerbar involved (or a combi version of it),
当没有不利的力量条（或其组合版本）介入时，退出策略并不一定被排除，
exit tactics are not necessarily off, but there is a stronger chance that
但集群形态仍然更有可能被视为熊旗形态，这意味着熊方可能不太愿意放弃他
the
cluster formation is still looked upon as a bear-flag variant, mean­
们的空头头寸，即使在当前中间部分的高点突破时，牛方也可能不太愿意进入
ing
that bear parties may now be less tempted to let go of their shorts,
。考虑到虚假突破的更强潜力，采用反转退出可能不是最明智的选择。
not even on a break of the current middle-part's high. And bulls may be
less eager to enter on it. Considering the stronger potential for a false
break, deploying a reversal exit may not be the smartest choice .
As the name suggests, the reversal exit is mostly a function of a
顾名思义，反转退出主要是一个盈利交易变得不利的功能（否则几乎没有什
profitable trade turning sour (otherwise there is little to reverse) . This
么可逆转的）。这意味着在许多情况下，我们可能能够以最小的损失，甚至仍
implies
that in many an instance we may be able to deploy the exit with
然获得微小的利润来执行退出。换句话说，如果不利压力在入场后不久就开始
only
minimal damage, or even for a tiny profit still. Or to put it in anoth­
积聚，我们不仅在处理一个疲软的交易，还在处理一个疲软的突破，在大多数
er
way, if the adverse pressure already starts to build up shortly after
情况下，最好让止损单来负责保护。让我们探索一些实际例子，以便对所涉及
entry, we are not just dealing with a faltering trade but with a faltering
的策略有一个印象。
breakout, and in most such cases it is probably best to let the bracket
stop take care of protection. Let's explore some practical examples to get
an impression of the tactics involved.
157
Understanding Price Action
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Figure 6.3 Progression 2-3-4-5-6 shows the classic contours of an M­
pattern reversal. Since the aim of intervention is to protect a trade from
"unnecessary" damage, a vital ingredient within these tactics is to be
able to recognize the adverse pressures before the right leg of the rever­
sal pattern is completed. Special attention, therefore, should go out to
the forming of the middle-part section.
In an M-pattern, the low of the middle-part (4) is usually situated
higher than the start of the left leg (2), quite like a flag hanging from a
pole. Signs of trouble may arise when this correction fails to reverse in
line with dominance, or does so but then fails to follow through (as was
the case above).
Before we discuss the specifics of the reversal exit, let us first take
up the entry on the pattern break pullback trade. The position could
have been initiated above bar 2 , which was a re-break of the dominant
pattern line after a tease breakout had been forced to retreat (T -2) . Note
that prior to closing strongly outside the pattern line, our signal bar 2
had put in a textbook ceiling test with the high of bar l . If for some rea­
son not in on the break above bar 2 , there was an opportunity to take
position on the break of the breakout bar, just one bar later (pattern
break combi variant) .
At times, the magnet effect of a round number can harbor an ironic
twist. Initially it may pull a trade pleasantly in the plus, but then the
area may start to hinder further progression. In this instance" prices
had come to a halt just a few pip shy of our target, from which a pull­
back emerged (3-4).
158
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
�
图 6.3
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Figure
6.3 Progression
2-3-4-5-6
shows the classic contours of an M­
图
6.3 的进展
2-3-4-5-6 显示了经典的
M 型反转轮廓。由于干预的目的是保护交易
pattern
reversal.
Since the aim of intervention is to protect a trade from
免受
"不必要"
的损害，因此这些战术中的一个重要成分是能够在反转模式的右
"unnecessary" damage, a vital ingredient within these tactics is to be
腿完成之前识别出不利压力。因此，特别需要关注中间部分的形成。
able to recognize the adverse pressures before the right leg of the rever­
sal pattern is completed. Special attention, therefore, should go out to
the forming of the middle-part section.
In Man型模式中，中间部分的低点
M-pattern, the low of the
middle-part (4) (2)
is 之上，就像悬挂在
usually situated
在
(4) 通常位于左腿起点
higher
than
the
start
of
the
left
leg
(2),
quite
like
a
flag
hanging from a
杆子上的旗帜。当这种修正未能按照主导方向反转，或虽然反转但未能继续（
pole. Signs of trouble may arise when this correction fails to reverse in
如上所述）时，可能会出现问题的迹象。
line with dominance, or does so but then fails to follow through (as was
the case above).
Before we discuss the specifics of the reversal exit, let us first take
在我们讨论反转退出的具体细节之前，让我们先谈谈模式突破回调交易的入
up
the entry on the pattern break pullback trade. The position could
场。该头寸可以在第2根柱子上方启动，这是对主导模式线的重新突破，在此之
have been initiated above bar 2 , which was a re-break of the dominant
前，强迫回撤的诱导突破（T-2）已经发生。请注意，在强烈收盘于模式线外之
pattern line after a tease breakout had been forced to retreat (T -2) . Note
前，我们的信号柱2已经与柱1的高点进行了教科书式的顶部测试。如果由于某
that prior to closing strongly outside the pattern line, our signal bar 2
种原因没有在第2根柱子上方的突破中入场，那么在突破柱的突破后，仅仅一根
had put in a textbook ceiling test with the high of bar l . If for some rea­
柱子后（模式突破组合变体）就有机会入场。
son not in on the break above bar 2 , there was an opportunity to take
position on the break of the breakout bar, just one bar later (pattern
break combi variant) .
At times, the magnet effect of a round number can harbor an ironic
有时，整数的磁力效应可能会带来讽刺的转折。最初，它可能会愉快地将交
twist. Initially it may pull a trade pleasantly in the plus, but then the
易拉入盈利，但随后该区域可能会开始阻碍进一步的进展。在这种情况下，价
area may start to hinder further progression. In this instance" prices
格在距离我们的目标仅几点的地方停滞不前，随后出现了回调（3-4）。
had come to a halt just a few pip shy of our target, from which a pull­
back emerged (3-4).
158
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
As already repeatedly addressed, the first pullback after a fresh
breakout is seldom reason to bail out of a trade. More likely, it forms
an opportunity for latecomers to take position in line with the original
break (the low at 4 was a technical test with the combi on the left and
also a 50 percent correction of the breakout swing 2-3).
So, initially, pullback 3-4 can be regarded as a bull-flag, which is a
continuation pattern; prices indeed managed to break out topside, but
that's about as far as it went. Instead of clearing the former high of 3,
bar 5 suddenly took a nosedive from which it could not recoup before
its close. Was this a sign to prepare for a reversal exit?
Looking closely, we can see that bar 5 not only put in a double top
with bar 3 (lower top to be exact), it was a mean false high with its neigh­
bor and it single-handedly completed the right side of the M-pattern's
middle-part. There were only six bars involved in this cluster (3-5), but
in relation to its modest pole 2-3 this was quite a telling pattern. Since
we aim to exit on a break, we can grant the market one last chance to
shape up; but the very moment bar 5 is taken out, all hopes should be
cast aside and our trade is best exited without further thought.
Note that when bar 5 was broken, the actual low of the middle-part
was not (4) . To some this may have been reason to stay in the trade still,
but in most cases I would advice not to resort to such optimism and to
simply accept the message of the broken powerbar.
Note: To determine the degree of danger within adverse buildup, the
harmony principle may help out once again. Just like we should avoid
to trade a continuation break of a non-harmonious flag (in relation to
its pole), so should we avoid to exit on a reversal break of a rather feeble
middle-part (in relation to the left leg before it). What may help to assess
the "ripeness" of this middle-part section is to see if we can already visu­
alize the full pattern's completion in symmetrical fashion. For example,
with double-top progression 3-5 hanging rather harmoniously from the
left leg 2-3, it wasn't very hard to imagine this pattern to be completed
by a right leg that would more or less copy the swing of the left leg (5-6
mimics 2-3). Do recall, though, that the actual completion of the right
leg is basically irrelevant, since the plan is to already deploy the exit on
the break of the middle-part. When responding promptly to the signal
159
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
手动退出 - 反转退出
As already repeatedly addressed, the first pullback after a fresh
正如之前多次提到的，首次回调后，新的突破很少是退出交易的理由。更可
breakout is seldom reason to bail out of a trade. More likely, it forms
能的是，这为后来的投资者提供了一个顺应原始突破的机会（4的低点是一个技
an
opportunity for latecomers to take position in line with the original
术测试，左侧的组合以及突破波段2-3的50%回调）。
break (the low at 4 was a technical test with the combi on the left and
also a 50 percent correction of the breakout swing 2-3).
So, initially, pullback 3-4 can be regarded as a bull-flag, which is a
因此，最初的回调3-4可以被视为一个牛市旗形，这是一个持续模式；价格确
continuation
pattern; prices indeed managed to break out topside, but
实成功突破了上方，但这也仅此而已。相反，5号柱突然暴跌，未能在收盘前恢
that's about as far as it went. Instead of clearing the former high of 3,
复。这是否是准备逆转退出的信号？
bar 5 suddenly took a nosedive from which it could not recoup before
its close. Was this a sign to prepare for a reversal exit?
Looking closely, we can see that bar 5 not only put in a double top
仔细观察，我们可以看到，第5根柱子不仅与第3根柱子形成了双顶（确切地
with bar 3 (lower top to be exact), it was a mean false high with its neigh­
说是较低的顶），而且它与邻近的柱子形成了一个虚假的高点，单独完成了M形
bor and it single-handedly completed the right side of the M-pattern's
态中间部分的右侧。这个簇中只有六根柱子（3-5），但相对于其适中的支撑2-3
middle-part. There were only six bars involved in this cluster (3-5), but
，这确实是一个相当显著的形态。由于我们旨在在突破时退出，我们可以给市场
in relation to its modest pole 2-3 this was quite a telling pattern. Since
最后一次机会来调整；但在第5根柱子被突破的那一刻，所有的希望都应该抛弃
we
aim to exit on a break, we can grant the market one last chance to
，我们的交易最好在没有进一步思考的情况下退出。
shape up; but the very moment bar 5 is taken out, all hopes should be
cast aside and our trade is best exited without further thought.
Note that when bar 5 was broken, the actual low of the middle-part
请注意，当第5根柱子被突破时，中间部分的实际低点并没有被突破（4）
was
not (4) . To some this may have been reason to stay in the trade still,
。对某些人来说，这可能是继续持有交易的理由，但在大多数情况下，我建议
but in most cases I would advice not to resort to such optimism and to
不要抱有这样的乐观情绪，而是简单地接受被突破的强势柱所传达的信息。
simply accept the message of the broken powerbar.
Note: To determine the degree of danger within adverse buildup, the
注意：要确定不利积累中的危险程度，和谐原则可能再次提供帮助。就像我
harmony
principle may help out once again. Just like we should avoid
们应该避免在非和谐旗帜（相对于其杆）上交易持续突破一样，我们也应该避
to trade a continuation break of a non-harmonious flag (in relation to
免在相对微弱的中间部分（相对于之前的左腿）上进行反转突破时退出。评估
its
pole), so should we avoid to exit on a reversal break of a rather feeble
这个中间部分的“成熟度”可能有助于我们是否能够已经在对称的方式中可视化
middle-part
(in relation to the left leg before it). What may help to assess
完整模式的完成。例如，在双顶进程中，3-5段和谐地悬挂在左腿2-3段下方，因
the
"ripeness" of this middle-part section is to see if we can already visu­
此很容易想象这个模式将由一个右腿完成，该右腿在某种程度上会复制左腿的
alize the full pattern's completion in symmetrical fashion. For example,
摆动（5-6模仿2-3）。不过，请记住，右腿的实际完成基本上是无关紧要的，因
with
double-top progression 3-5 hanging rather harmoniously from the
为计划是在中间部分突破时立即执行退出。当及时响应信号时
left leg 2-3, it wasn't very hard to imagine this pattern to be completed
by a right leg that would more or less copy the swing of the left leg (5-6
mimics 2-3). Do recall, though, that the actual completion of the right
leg is basically irrelevant, since the plan is to already deploy the exit on
the break of the middle-part. When responding promptly to the signal
159
Understanding Price Action
of the broken powerbar, in many cases we stand a pretty good chance
of bailing out with next to no damage (the exit below bar 5 was around
break-even).
Let us briefly examine also the aftermath of the M-pattern incident.
Hanging from the right leg, progression 6-7 appeared to have found
support in a pattern line extension; if you picture the extension in your
mind's eye, you can see that the four bottoming tails of6-7 all dipped be­
low this line, yet each bar closed above it. This showed bullish resilience
and may have given rise to the impression that the market was about
ready for another move up. And since the 6-7 cluster hung sideways
from its pole 5-6, this harbored characteristics of a pending W -reversal.
Granted, this middle-part lacked the harmonious features of the situa­
tion on the left, but at least the break of bar 7 was in line with the earlier
dominant pressure (think pullback reversal). With this in mind, should
we have re-entered on the bull side again, on the break of bar 7?
Before accepting any wager, it is important to assess what exactly
prices have to do in order to reach target. Here they would have had
to eat themselves a path through the double-top cluster overhead, and
fight out this battle in a major round number level to boot. Had progres­
sion 6-7 shown up at the end of a first correction, the break of bar 7
may have had a lot more merit. But now that the market had corrected
not once but twice (M-pattern double top), the prospects for a substan­
tial breakout were far less promising.
Here is another way to look at it: for any trade to succeed, we need
assistance from sideline companions; if there was already little enthu­
siasm to take prices beyond the round number when the path was
relatively free earlier on, what are the odds that new bulls would want
to help out with now an M-pattern block spoiling the view. (In Chapter
7 we will take up this principle of unfavorable conditions in more detail.)
160
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
of the broken powerbar, in many cases we stand a pretty good chance
在许多情况下，尽管破损的动力条，我们仍然有相当好的机会几乎没有损失地
of bailing out with next to no damage (the exit below bar 5 was around
撤出（第5条下方的退出大约是持平的）。
break-even).
Let us briefly examine also the aftermath of the M-pattern incident.
让我们简要地审视一下M形态事件的后果。挂在右腿上的6-7进程似乎在一个
Hanging
from the right leg, progression 6-7 appeared to have found
模式线延伸上找到了支撑；如果你在脑海中想象这个延伸，你会看到6-7的四个
support in a pattern line extension; if you picture the extension in your
底部尾部都低于这条线，但每根柱子都收盘在其上方。这显示了看涨的韧性，
mind's
eye, you can see that the four bottoming tails of6-7 all dipped be­
并可能给人一种市场即将再次上涨的印象。由于6-7集群横向悬挂在其5-6杆上，
low this line, yet each bar closed above it. This showed bullish resilience
这具有潜在的W形反转特征。诚然，这个中间部分缺乏左侧情况的和谐特征，但
and may have given rise to the impression that the market was about
至少第7条的突破与早期的主导压力一致（想想回调反转）。考虑到这一点，我
ready for another move up. And since the 6-7 cluster hung sideways
们是否应该在第7条突破时再次重新进入多头？
from its pole 5-6, this harbored characteristics of a pending W -reversal.
Granted, this middle-part lacked the harmonious features of the situa­
tion on the left, but at least the break of bar 7 was in line with the earlier
dominant pressure (think pullback reversal). With this in mind, should
we have re-entered on the bull side again, on the break of bar 7?
Before accepting any wager, it is important to assess what exactly
在接受任何赌注之前，重要的是评估价格究竟需要做些什么才能达到目标。
prices have to do in order to reach target. Here they would have had
在这里，他们必须自己开辟一条路径，穿过上方的双顶集群，并在一个主要的
to
eat themselves a path through the double-top cluster overhead, and
整数关口进行战斗。如果在第一次修正结束时出现了进展6-7，突破第7根柱子可
fight out this battle in a major round number level to boot. Had progres­
能会更有意义。但现在市场已经修正了不止一次（M形态双顶），因此大幅突破
sion 6-7 shown up at the end of a first correction, the break of bar 7
的前景就不那么乐观了。
may have had a lot more merit. But now that the market had corrected
not once but twice (M-pattern double top), the prospects for a substan­
tial breakout were far less promising.
Here
is another way to look at it: for any trade to succeed, we need
另一种看待这个问题的方法是：任何交易要成功，我们需要来自旁观者的支
assistance from sideline companions; if there was already little enthu­
持；如果在早期路径相对畅通时，已经对价格突破整数关口缺乏热情，那么在
siasm to take prices beyond the round number when the path was
现在有一个M形态阻碍视线的情况下，新多头愿意提供帮助的几率有多大呢？（
relatively free earlier on, what are the odds that new bulls would want
在第7章中，我们将更详细地讨论这种不利条件的原则。）
to help out with now an M-pattern block spoiling the view. (In Chapter
7 we will take up this principle of unfavorable conditions in more detail.)
160
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
Chapter 6
1 Fig 6.41
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Figure 6.4 Whenever prices are confined in a triangle pattern, moving
up and down between two converging barriers, at some point a break is
unavoidable. Particularly in the small of the pattern, the so-called apex,
the bars have no choice but to tighten up and this can really make the
tension coil up like a spring.
Things can get tricky, though, when the fighting takes place with a
major round number running right through the center of the triangle.
This is a lot more common than one might think. In fact, more often
than not these round number levels are the very cause of pattern for­
mation.
As outlined in earlier discussions, when aiming to trade away from a
strong magnet, it is vital to look for solid buildup and to shun all break­
outs of the weaker kind. Particularly in a round number zone, things
can get unpleasant very quickly when picking sides too eagerly. Always
keep in mind that this is the favorite playground of contrarians; and if
these parties already see little problem in defying a proper break, surely
they will love to get their hands dirty on a poor one. The tease break at
T is a classic example of a premature break, and equally common is the
contrarian response.
Although of better standing (more buildup) , the break below bar 1
was a tad bit premature as well. Even though this tiny bar was situated
in a nice squeeze below the 25ema and the round number, it wasn't a
signal bar to write home about. At times, in highly favorable surround­
ings, front-running the break of a pattern line can be a defensible call,
161
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
Chapter 6
第六章
Fig6.4
6.41
1图
手动退出 - 反转退出
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Figure
6.4 Whenever prices are confined in a triangle pattern, moving
图
6.4 当价格被限制在一个三角形模式中，在两个收敛的障碍之间上下波动
up
and down between two converging barriers, at some point a break is
时，某个时刻的突破是不可避免的。特别是在模式的尖端，即所谓的顶点，
unavoidable.
Particularly in the small of the pattern, the so-called apex,
价格条形图不得不收紧，这确实会使紧张感像弹簧一样卷曲。
the bars have no choice but to tighten up and this can really make the
tension coil up like a spring.
Things
can get tricky, though, when the fighting takes place with a
不过，当争斗发生在一个主要的整数关口正好穿过三角形的中心时，事情可能会
major
round number running right through the center of the triangle.
变得棘手。这种情况比人们想象的要常见得多。事实上，这些整数关口水平往往是
This is a lot more common than one might think. In fact, more often
模式形成的主要原因。
than not these round number levels are the very cause of pattern for­
mation.
As outlined in earlier discussions, when aiming to trade away from a
正如之前讨论的，当试图远离强磁场进行交易时，寻找坚实的积累是至关重
strong
magnet, it is vital to look for solid buildup and to shun all break­
要的，并且要避免所有较弱的突破。特别是在整数区域，过于急于选择一方时
outs of the weaker kind. Particularly in a round number zone, things
，情况可能会迅速变得不愉快。始终记住，这是反向交易者的最爱游乐场；如
can
get unpleasant very quickly when picking sides too eagerly. Always
果这些参与者已经认为无视一个适当的突破没有问题，他们肯定会乐于在一个
keep
in mind that this is the favorite playground of contrarians; and if
糟糕的突破上大展拳脚。T点的诱惑性突破是一个典型的过早突破的例子，而反
these parties already see little problem in defying a proper break, surely
向交易者的反应同样常见。
they will love to get their hands dirty on a poor one. The tease break at
T is a classic example of a premature break, and equally common is the
contrarian response.
Although of better standing (more buildup) , the break below bar 1
尽管站位更好（积累更多），但在1号柱下方的突破也有点过早。尽管这个
was a tad bit premature as well. Even though this tiny bar was situated
小柱位于25ema和整数线下方的良好挤压中，但这并不是一个值得大书特书的信
in
a nice squeeze below the 25ema and the round number, it wasn't a
号柱。在某些情况下，在高度有利的环境中，提前突破模式线可能是一个合理
signal bar to write home about. At times, in highly favorable surround­
的选择，
ings, front-running the break of a pattern line can be a defensible call,
161
Understanding Price Action
but this is generally not the best approach in the midst of a round
number fight. The conservative route is to lay off and wait for more
information. Should this cause us to miss the initial break, there is al­
ways a chance for a pattern break pullback setup.
If we assume to have taken position by means of the latter, on the
break of bar 2 , it looks like the low of bar 3 just missed our 20 pip target
by a hairsbreadth before a correction set in.
The correction soon evolved into a bear-flag (3 -4) hanging from the
pole 2-3. Since a flag is a continuation pattern at heart, we need not
be immediately alarmed by this type of adverse development (no W­
features yet in place). Although the progression harbored a three-bar
combi within, which was broken topside in bar 4, the counter activity
was still relatively benign when measured against the strength of the
bearish flagpole. Furthermore, the break in bar 4 ran into resistance
of a little hiccup on the left (prior to bar 3). To make us give up on our
short, bulls would have to do a little better than that.
Soon after the false high incident at 4, the short was pleasantly back
on track, but it didn't take long for its momentum to peter out again,
and this formed a little double bottom (3-5) . The bullish close of bar 6
certainly called for attention, but to have deployed a reversal exit above
this bar can be regarded as premature still. Technically, bar 6 was an
adverse powerbar (opening low, closing high) , but when compared to
the neighboring activity, the bar did not really stand out, nor did it fin­
ish off a W-pattern middle-part in very harmonious fashion. All this is
not to suggest that we need to see some sort of technical perfection first,
but if we are to give up on a position, it makes sense that there should
be as little ambiguity as possible as to the nature of the adverse implica­
tions. Logic dictates that weak signals are traps more often than those
of a stronger kind. If this holds up for our entries, then so it should for
our exits.
It was only when the bulls had managed to hammer in powerbar 7
that the bottoming features of the 3-7 progression took on the quality
of a nondebatable reversal formation. Of course, the break above bar 7
could still turn out to be a reversal exit trap, why not, but to have stayed
in the short merely on account of such possibility would have been in
162
Understanding
Price Action
理解价格行为
but
this is generally not the best approach in the midst of a round
但在数字战斗的过程中，这通常不是最佳方法。保守的做法是暂时观望，等待更多
number
fight. The conservative route is to lay off and wait for more
信息。如果这导致我们错过了初始突破，仍然有机会进行模式突破回调设置。
information. Should this cause us to miss the initial break, there is al­
ways a chance for a pattern break pullback setup.
If we assume to have taken position by means of the latter, on the
如果我们假设在第二根柱子的突破时已经入场，那么第三根柱子的低点似乎
break
of bar 2 , it looks like the low of bar 3 just missed our 20 pip target
在距离我们20点目标仅一步之遥时就错过了，然后出现了修正。
by a hairsbreadth before a correction set in.
The
correction soon evolved into a bear-flag (3 -4) hanging from the
修正很快演变成一个熊旗（3-4），悬挂在旗杆2-3上。由于旗帜本质上是一个
pole 2-3. Since a flag is a continuation pattern at heart, we need not
延续形态，因此我们不必对这种不利的发展感到过于惊慌（尚未出现W形态）
be immediately alarmed by this type of adverse development (no W­
。尽管这个进程中隐藏着一个三条柱的组合，并在第4根柱子上向上突破，但与
features
yet in place). Although the progression harbored a three-bar
熊旗杆的强度相比，反向活动仍然相对温和。此外，第4根柱子的突破遇到了左
combi within, which was broken topside in bar 4, the counter activity
侧的小阻力（在第3根柱子之前）。为了让我们放弃空头，牛市需要做得比这更
was
好。 still relatively benign when measured against the strength of the
bearish flagpole. Furthermore, the break in bar 4 ran into resistance
of a little hiccup on the left (prior to bar 3). To make us give up on our
short, bulls would have to do a little better than that.
Soon after the false high incident at 4, the short was pleasantly back
在第4根柱子的虚假高点事件后，空头很快又回到了正轨，但没过多久，其动
on track, but it didn't take long for its momentum to peter out again,
能又开始减弱，这形成了一个小的双底（3-5）。第6根柱子的看涨收盘确实引起
and this formed a little double bottom (3-5) . The bullish close of bar 6
了注意，但在这根柱子上部署反转退出可以被视为过早。技术上，第6根柱子是
certainly called for attention, but to have deployed a reversal exit above
一个不利的强势柱（开盘低，收盘高），但与邻近活动相比，这根柱子并没有真
this bar can be regarded as premature still. Technically, bar 6 was an
正突出，也没有以非常和谐的方式完成W形态的中间部分。所有这些并不是说我
adverse powerbar (opening low, closing high) , but when compared to
们需要首先看到某种技术完美，但如果我们要放弃一个头寸，最好是对不利影响
the neighboring activity, the bar did not really stand out, nor did it fin­
的性质尽可能少有歧义。逻辑上，弱信号往往比强信号更容易成为陷阱。如果这
ish
off a W-pattern middle-part in very harmonious fashion. All this is
适用于我们的入场，那么它也应该适用于我们的退出。
not to suggest that we need to see some sort of technical perfection first,
but if we are to give up on a position, it makes sense that there should
be as little ambiguity as possible as to the nature of the adverse implica­
tions. Logic dictates that weak signals are traps more often than those
of a stronger kind. If this holds up for our entries, then so it should for
our exits.
It was only whenpowerbar
the bulls
had managed
to hammer in powerbar 7
只有当多头成功将
7 锤入时，3-7
进展的触底特征才呈现出无可辩驳
that
the bottoming features of
3-7 progression took on the quality
的反转形态的品质。当然，突破
barthe
7 仍然可能是一个反转退出陷阱，为什么不
of a nondebatable reversal formation. Of course, the break above bar 7
呢，但仅仅因为这种可能性而继续持有空头头寸将是
could still turn out to be a reversal exit trap, why not, but to have stayed
in the short merely on account of such possibility would have been in
162
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
defiance of the technical message sent out.
Take note also of the subtle false low in bar 7. Before making its bull­
ish turnaround, this bar had taken out the low of its bearish neighbor
fir,st, no doubt sucking a number of unfortunate bears into fresh shorts.
That put these bears first on the list to help the subsequent bull break
along (by buying back their shorts).
Was this truly a cleverly designed false low trap, or just a conse­
quence of demand toppling supply in the lows? It is irrelevant. Our
focus should be on the implications only.
When compared to its M-pattern counterpart in Figure 6.3, W­
progression 2-3-4-5-7 was a little more elongated, yet the reversal
implications were exactly the same, if not stronger. Why stronger? Argu­
ably more telling than a double bottom is a double bottom with a higher
bottom next to it; and that is exactly what the bulls had created in the
3-5-7 progression.
Once again, if our entries are a function of technical pressure, the
same should apply to our manual exits. Perhaps an optimistic bear
may have had his hopes still set on the resistance of the overhanging
pattern line extension, a little above bar 7, if only with the intention to
exit more economically on a bearish bounce away from that line; all very
understandable, but these are tactics of the hope-and-pray variety and
not likely to prove beneficial in the long run. Why not keep it simple and
deploy a reversal exit on the break of bar 7. And without any damage
done (practically a break-even exit).
163
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits
- Reversal Exit
手动退出
- 反转退出
defiance
of the technical message sent out.
对发出的技术信息的蔑视。
Take note
of the subtle false low in bar 7. Before making
its bull­
还要注意
baralso
7 中微妙的假低点。在做出看涨的转变之前，这个
bar 首先突破了
ish turnaround, this bar had taken out the low of its bearish neighbor
其看跌邻居的低点，毫无疑问地将许多不幸的空头吸入了新的空头头寸。这使得
fir,st, no doubt sucking a number of unfortunate bears into fresh shorts.
这些空头首先出现在帮助随后的多头突破的名单上（通过回购他们的空头头寸）
That put these bears first on the list to help the subsequent bull break
。
along (by buying back their shorts).
Was this truly a cleverly designed false low trap, or just a conse­
这真的是一个巧妙设计的虚假低点陷阱，还是仅仅是需求在低点压倒供
quence of demand toppling supply in the lows? It is irrelevant. Our
给的结果？这无关紧要。我们关注的应该只是其影响。
focus should be on the implications only.
When compared to its M-pattern counterpart in Figure 6.3, W­
与图6.3中的M型对应物相比，W型进程2-3-4-5-7略显拉长，但其反转含义完
progression 2-3-4-5-7 was a little more elongated, yet the reversal
全相同，甚至更强。为什么更强？可以说，比双底更具说服力的是旁边有一个
implications were exactly the same, if not stronger. Why stronger? Argu­
更高底部的双底；而这正是多头在3-5-7进程中所创造的。
ably more telling than a double bottom is a double bottom with a higher
bottom next to it; and that is exactly what the bulls had created in the
3-5-7 progression.
Once again, if our entries are a function of technical pressure, the
再一次，如果我们的入场是技术压力的函数，那么我们的手动出场也应该
same should apply to our manual exits. Perhaps an optimistic bear
如此。也许一个乐观的空头仍然希望在第7根柱子上方的悬挂图案线延伸的阻
may
have had his hopes still set on the resistance of the overhanging
力上退出，尽管只是为了在那条线的看跌反弹中更经济地退出；这完全可以理
pattern
line extension, a little above bar 7, if only with the intention to
解，但这些都是希望与祈祷的策略，长期来看不太可能有利。为什么不简单点
exit
more economically on a bearish bounce away from that line; all very
，在第7根柱子突破时部署反转退出呢？而且没有造成任何损失（几乎是平仓
understandable,
but these are tactics of the hope-and-pray variety and
退出）。
not likely to prove beneficial in the long run. Why not keep it simple and
deploy a reversal exit on the break of bar 7. And without any damage
done (practically a break-even exit).
163
Understanding Price Action
Wig 6.51
www. ProRearTime. com
eur/usd S-minute
Figure 6.5 Telling by the frantic activity within bar 1 , the market had
been hit by a news report in the European morning. If we follow the up/
down motion within this bar, and its equally powerful neighbor, we can
clearly see the impact a news release can have on the price action, and
how dangerous such an environment can be for both bull and bear. Af­
ter the dust settles down, not seldom the market simply re-establishes
the direction it was heading in prior to the release, as if nothing hap­
pened. At other times the chart can be shaken up pretty bad and it may
take many hours for anything tradable to show up again.
Figure 6.5 shows a picture of the latter variety. There are some in­
teresting things worth noting, though. The first regards the bear-flag
formation 2-3, hanging from the news swing 1-2. This situation pres­
ents us with a memorable example of how even the break of a classic
chart pattern runs high risk of failure when unfavorably located within
the bigger picture.
In terms of conditions, the break below bar 3 bore at least three ele­
ments of a valid skip: (a) the entry was far removed from the 25ema, (b)
the flag hung from a news spike (always tricky) and (c) after the violent
perforation, the 50-level hadn't been properly tested back. Not a great
environment to aim for bearish continuation.
In the marketplace, contrarians possess a keen eye for traders in
trouble and it is their favorite game to shake these "weak hands" out of
the market. There are many ways to inflict demoralization on the oppo­
nent, but a tactic that seldom fails to deliver is to instigate the dreaded
false break in powerbar fashion (4) . Of course, not all bears will have
164
1.35
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Wig
1
图6.56.5www.ProRealTime.com
欧元/美元 5分钟
www. ProRearTime. com
eur/usd S-minute
Figure
6.5 Telling by the frantic activity within bar 1 , the market had
图6.5
从第1根柱子的剧烈活动来看，市场在欧洲早晨受到了一则新闻报道的影响
been hit by a news report in the European morning. If we follow the up/
。如果我们跟随这一柱子的上下波动，以及其同样强劲的邻近柱子，我们可以
down motion within this bar, and its equally powerful neighbor, we can
清楚地看到新闻发布对价格走势的影响，以及这种环境对多头和空头的危险性。
clearly see the impact a news release can have on the price action, and
在尘埃落定之后，市场往往会重新确立在发布之前的方向，仿佛什么都没有发生
how dangerous such an environment can be for both bull and bear. Af­
过。而在其他时候，图表可能会受到严重冲击，可能需要数小时才能再次出现可
ter the dust settles down, not seldom the market simply re-establishes
交易的机会。
the direction it was heading in prior to the release, as if nothing hap­
pened. At other times the chart can be shaken up pretty bad and it may
take many hours for anything tradable to show up again.
Figure 6.5 shows a picture of the latter variety. There are some in­
图6.5展示了后者的品种。不过，有一些有趣的事情值得注意。首先是关于从
teresting
things worth noting, though. The first regards the bear-flag
新闻波动1-2悬挂的熊旗形态2-3。这种情况为我们提供了一个难忘的例子，说明
formation 2-3, hanging from the news swing 1-2. This situation pres­
即使是经典图表模式的突破，在更大图景中位置不利时也存在高失败风险。
ents us with a memorable example of how even the break of a classic
chart pattern runs high risk of failure when unfavorably located within
the bigger picture.
In terms of conditions, the break below bar 3 bore at least
three ele­
就条件而言，突破3号柱下方至少具备三个有效跳空的要素：(a)
进入点远离25em
ments
of a valid skip: (a) the entry was far removed
from the 25ema, (b)
a，(b)
旗帜悬挂在新闻尖峰上（总是棘手），以及(c)
在剧烈穿透后，50水平没有得
the flag hung from a news spike (always tricky) and (c) after the violent
到适当的回测。并不是一个理想的环境来追求看跌延续。
perforation, the 50-level hadn't been properly tested back. Not a great
environment to aim for bearish continuation.
In the marketplace, contrarians possess a keen eye for traders in
在市场上，逆势者对陷入困境的交易者有敏锐的洞察力，他们最喜欢的游戏
trouble and it is their favorite game to shake these "weak hands" out of
就是将这些“弱手”赶出市场。有很多方法可以对对手施加打击，但一种几乎总能
the market. There are many ways to inflict demoralization on the oppo­
奏效的策略是以强势柱的形式引发可怕的假突破（4）。当然，并不是所有的空
nent,
but a tactic that seldom fails to deliver is to instigate the dreaded
头都会有
false break in powerbar fashion (4) . Of course, not all bears will have
164
1.35
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
been equally intimidated, but those working with tight stops will surely
have taken note of the false low at 4, not to mention the reversal poten­
tial within the 2-4 progression. Indeed, in many an instance, a failed
flag breakout almost automatically transforms into an M or W-pattern
middle-part.
For argument's sake, if we imagine ourselves to have been trapped
in the break below bar 3, our bracket stop will have been hit soon after;
if not in bar 4 already, then surely on the topside break of it. That basi­
cally rules out the reversal exit option. Should we have been in short
position from an earlier level (I don't see how) , the break of powerbar 4
is one such adverse development worthy to exit on. The absolute point
of no return would have concerned the break of bar 5, which was a pat­
tern break combi variant in favor of the bulls. Both breaks may not yet
have signaled a valid entry on the long side, they certainly warranted
intervention when positioned short.
After the failed flag incident, prices more or less clung around the
50-level for several hours and nothing much was to make of it. Having
fended off the bear-flag breakout, bulls had obtained a moral advan­
tage over the bears, but they hadn't really been able to capitalize on the
event. Nonetheless, by cleverly using the failed flag cluster as support
(2-5) , it had not cost them much effort to block all bearish charges in
the round number area; even the more serious break at 6 was quickly
undone (basically a failed M-pattern reversal) .
When a session lacks a clear dominant party, this tends to have a
limiting effect on breakout participation. Rather than hopping along
on a break on first go, plenty of traders prefer to watch the market's
response first. Understandably, this wait-and-see tactic is even more
popular when the barrier in question is not broken distinctively yet. It
may have been the core reason also for the poor follow-through on the
tease breakout at T.
Technically seen, bar 7 was an interesting bar (false low with bullish
close) and in a more favorable setting perhaps it may have earned more
credit as a signal bar. Opinions may differ, but I would advise against
trading long straightaway in this tricky 50 level area. But in the little
skirmish that followed, bulls stood their ground well (T 8 ) and this now
-
,
165
Chapter 6
第六章
手动退出
- 反转退出
Manual Exits
- Reversal Exit
been equally intimidated, but those working with tight stops will surely
那些在紧止损下工作的人肯定会注意到4的虚假低点，更不用说2-4进程中的反转
have taken note of the false low at 4, not to mention the reversal poten­
潜力了。实际上，在许多情况下，失败的旗形突破几乎自动转变为M或W形态的
tial
within the 2-4 progression. Indeed, in many an instance, a failed
中间部分。
flag breakout almost automatically transforms into an M or W-pattern
middle-part.
For argument's sake, if we imagine ourselves to have been trapped
为了论证，如果我们想象自己被困在第3根柱子下方的突破中，我们的止损
in the break below bar 3, our bracket stop will have been hit soon after;
将在不久后被触发；如果不是在第4根柱子上，那么肯定是在其顶部突破时被触
if
not in bar 4 already, then surely on the topside break of it. That basi­
发。这基本上排除了反转退出的选项。如果我们早些时候已经处于空头头寸（
cally rules out the reversal exit option. Should we have been in short
我不知道怎么做到的），那么第4根强势柱的突破就是一个值得退出的不利发展
position from an earlier level (I don't see how) , the break of powerbar 4
。绝对的无法回头的点将涉及第5根柱的突破，这是一种有利于多头的模式突破
is one such adverse development worthy to exit on. The absolute point
组合。尽管这两个突破可能尚未发出有效的多头入场信号，但它们无疑在空头
of no return would have concerned the break of bar 5, which was a pat­
头寸时值得进行干预。
tern break combi variant in favor of the bulls. Both breaks may not yet
have signaled a valid entry on the long side, they certainly warranted
intervention when positioned short.
After the failed flag incident, prices more or less clung around the
在失败的旗帜事件之后，价格在50水平附近徘徊了几个小时，没什么特别的
50-level for several hours and nothing much was to make of it. Having
变化。尽管成功抵挡了熊旗突破，牛市在熊市面前获得了道义上的优势，但他
fended off the bear-flag breakout, bulls had obtained a moral advan­
们并没有真正能够利用这一事件。然而，通过巧妙地将失败的旗帜集群作为支
tage
over the bears, but they hadn't really been able to capitalize on the
撑（2-5），他们几乎没有花费太多精力就阻止了所有在整数区域的熊市攻击；
event. Nonetheless, by cleverly using the failed flag cluster as support
即使在6的更严重突破也很快被扭转（基本上是一个失败的M形反转）。
(2-5) , it had not cost them much effort to block all bearish charges in
the round number area; even the more serious break at 6 was quickly
undone (basically a failed M-pattern reversal) .
When a session lacks a clear dominant party, this tends to have a
当一个交易时段缺乏明显的主导方时，这往往会对突破参与产生限制效果。
limiting effect on breakout participation. Rather than hopping along
许多交易者宁愿先观察市场的反应，而不是在首次突破时就跳入交易。可以理
on
a break on first go, plenty of traders prefer to watch the market's
解的是，当相关的障碍尚未明显突破时，这种观望策略更为流行。这也可能是
response
first. Understandably, this wait-and-see tactic is even more
导致T处的诱惑突破后续表现不佳的核心原因。
popular when the barrier in question is not broken distinctively yet. It
may have been the core reason also for the poor follow-through on the
tease breakout at T.
Technically
seen, bar
an interesting
bar (false low with bullish
从技术角度来看，第
7 根7 Kwas
线是一个有趣的
K 线（假低伴随看涨收盘），
close) and in a more favorable setting perhaps
it may have earned more
如果在更有利的环境下，它或许可以作为信号
K 线获得更多认可。意见可能不
credit as a signal bar. Opinions
may differ, but I would advise against
一，但我建议不要在这个棘手的
50 水平区域直接做多。但在随后的短暂冲突
trading long straightaway
in this tricky 50 level area. But in the little
中，多头表现良好
(T-8)，这现在
skirmish that followed, bulls stood their ground well (T 8 ) and this now
-
,
165
Understanding Price Action
provided a stronger base for a bull-side wager (pattern break pullback
entry above bar 8).
More interesting than the entry on this trade (if accepted at all) is
the way the position could have been managed once open. In fact, the
reason this chart is selected is to point out a reversal exit that seem­
ingly defies standard operating policy, yet is defensible nonetheless. It
concerns the exit below bar 10.
To understand this call, we have to examine closely what exactly took
place after entry on the break of bar 8. First off, the breakout bar was a
huge powerbar that provided the trade with an excellent start. But then
the bears struck back. Their first feat was to put in a decent looking
powerbar of their own (9), but since it failed to match the strength of its
bullish neighbor, there was no reason yet to question the breakout, not
even if another bar was to extend the pullback all the way to the break­
out level. As we know very well, the first pullback that comes to test a
broken barrier is a likely candidate to get picked up.
Things are different, though, when there are strong signs of con­
trarian aggression within the correction. This is more likely to instill
suspicion, if not fear, in the minds of those positioned in line with the
break. And their potential companions on the sidelines may now view
the correction with less appetite as well. When in position and faced
with such predicament, always an option is to embrace the principle of
"better-safe-than-sorry".
Were such ominous signs present in the 9- 1 0 progression? Let's take
a moment to examine how things played out exactly. Right after bar 9
had come to a bearish close, new bulls arrived on the scene to counter
the bear attack with equal prowess. To visualize their initial success,
take careful note of the shape of bar 10. It started out at the low of bar
9 and then ran all the way up to the high of it; at the high, try to pic­
ture that at that point in time this bar will have shown a strong white
body, no doubt a pleasurable sight to all bulls in position. But then
things took a nasty turn. Within its 5-minute span, bar 1 0 went from
highly bullish to super bearish, a collapse that will have alarmed even
the most optimistic bull. Not only did the bar close at its low and even
166
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
为多头方的押注提供了更强的基础（突破模式回调，在第
8 根break
K 线之上入场
provided a stronger base for a bull-side wager (pattern
pullback
entry above bar 8).
）。
More interesting than the entry on this trade (if accepted at all) is
比这笔交易的入场（如果被接受的话）更有趣的是，一旦开仓，头寸可以如
the way the position could have been managed once open. In fact, the
何管理。事实上，选择这张图表的原因是为了指出一个看似违背标准操作策略，
reason this chart is selected is to point
a reversal exit that seem­
但仍然可以辩护的反转退出。它涉及在第
10 根out
K 线下方退出。
ingly defies standard operating policy, yet is defensible nonetheless. It
concerns the exit below bar 10.
To understand this call, we have to examine closely what exactly took
要理解这个交易，我们必须仔细检查在第8根柱子突破后究竟发生了什么
place after entry on the break of bar 8. First off, the breakout bar was a
。首先，突破柱是一根巨大的强势柱，为交易提供了一个极好的开端。但随
huge powerbar that provided the trade with an excellent start. But then
后空头反击了。他们的第一个成就是自己也形成了一根看起来不错的强势柱
the bears struck back. Their first feat was to put in a decent looking
（9），但由于它未能与其看涨的邻居相匹配，因此没有理由质疑突破，即使
powerbar of their own (9), but since it failed to match the strength of its
另一根柱子将回调延伸到突破水平。正如我们所知，第一次回调测试破裂的
bullish
neighbor, there was no reason yet to question the breakout, not
障碍是一个很可能被买入的候选者。
even if another bar was to extend the pullback all the way to the break­
out level. As we know very well, the first pullback that comes to test a
broken barrier is a likely candidate to get picked up.
Things
are different, though, when there are strong signs of con­
然而，当回调中有强烈的逆势攻击迹象时，情况就不同了。这更可能在那些
trarian aggression within the correction. This is more likely to instill
与突破方向一致的人心中引发怀疑，甚至恐惧。而那些在场外的潜在参与者现
suspicion,
if not fear, in the minds of those positioned in line with the
在可能也会以更少的胃口看待这次回调。当处于这种困境时，始终可以选择遵
break.
And their potential companions on the sidelines may now view
循“宁可安全也不要后悔”的原则。
the correction with less appetite as well. When in position and faced
with such predicament, always an option is to embrace the principle of
"better-safe-than-sorry".
Were such ominous signs present in the 9- 1 0 progression? Let's take
在9-10的进程中是否出现了如此不祥的迹象？让我们花一点时间仔细审视事
a moment to examine how things played out exactly. Right after bar 9
情是如何发展的。就在第9根柱子以看跌的方式收盘后，新一轮的多头出现，试
had come to a bearish close, new bulls arrived on the scene to counter
图以同样的力量对抗空头的攻击。为了可视化他们最初的成功，请仔细注意第10
the
bear attack with equal prowess. To visualize their initial success,
根柱子的形状。它从第9根柱子的低点开始，然后一路上涨到高点；在高点时，
take careful note of the shape of bar 10. It started out at the low of bar
想象一下此时这根柱子将显示出强烈的白色实体，毫无疑问，这对所有持有多
9 and then ran all the way up to the high of it; at the high, try to pic­
头头寸的人来说都是一个令人愉快的景象。但事情随后发生了恶化。在其5分钟
ture that at that point in time this bar will have shown a strong white
的时间内，第10根柱子从高度看涨转变为超级看跌，这一崩溃将会让即使是最乐
body,
no doubt a pleasurable sight to all bulls in position. But then
观的多头也感到震惊。不仅如此，这根柱子以其低点收盘，甚至
things took a nasty turn. Within its 5-minute span, bar 1 0 went from
highly bullish to super bearish, a collapse that will have alarmed even
the most optimistic bull. Not only did the bar close at its low and even
166
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
lower than its bearish neighbor, it also formed a strong bearish combi
with that same bar (9- 1 0) .
This leaves u s to answer whether the bearish implications were in­
deed disturbing enough for the break of bar 1 0 to have signaled a valid
reversal exit on the long. To determine this with neutral eyes, we have
to fully ignore the bearish panic move that followed, for this may have
been a reaction to a US news report that favored the dollar ( 16 : 00 CET).
The technical question of relevance here is whether the adverse combi
9-10 was to be regarded as part of a relatively harmless pullback, or a
harbinger of more trouble ahead and thus a legitimate reason to exit
below.
Apart from the fact that the upcoming news report may already have
been reason to exit the long, or not to have entered on it in the first
place (see News Report Exit earlier in this chapter) , there is another way
to address this issue and that is to find out if we can detect within the
post-breakout action any signs of an M-pattern reversal formation.
There are only three bars outside the broken pattern line but if we
track them closely, bar by bar, we can see that they indeed make up an
M-formation variant. The bullish breakout bar is the right leg up; bar
9 is the middle-part down, and bar 10 is the middle-part up, as well as
the right leg powerbar down. This is an M-pattern variant and it harbors
within it the same breakout potential that we have come to appreciate
when trading off a combi setup. This is not to suggest that we should
make it a habit to immediately exit on any adverse combi; but the stron­
ger they present themselves, particularly in conditions that weren't too
favorable to begin with (but acceptable enough to trade), the more their
message should be taken to heart. In our next example, Figure 6.6, we
will explore some more variants of this most potent three-bar reversal
pattern: a powerbar followed by an adverse combi.
167
Chapter 6
第六章
手动退出 -Exits
反转退出
Manual
- Reversal Exit
lower than its bearish neighbor, it also formed a strong bearish combi
低于其看跌的邻居，同时还与同一根柱子（9-10）形成了强烈的看跌组合。
with that same bar (9- 1 0) .
This leaves u s to answer whether the bearish implications were in­
这让我们不得不回答，熊市的影响是否足够令人不安，以至于第10根柱的突破
deed
disturbing enough for the break of bar 1 0 to have signaled a valid
是否发出了有效的反转退出信号。为了用中立的眼光来判断这一点，我们必须完
reversal exit on the long. To determine this with neutral eyes, we have
全忽视随后的熊市恐慌走势，因为这可能是对美国新闻报告的反应，该报告对美
to
fully ignore the bearish panic move that followed, for this may have
元有利（中欧时间16:00）。这里的技术问题是，9-10的负面组合是否应被视为相对
been a reaction to a US news report that favored the dollar ( 16 : 00 CET).
无害的回调，还是未来更多麻烦的预兆，因此是一个合理的退出理由。
The technical question of relevance here is whether the adverse combi
9-10 was to be regarded as part of a relatively harmless pullback, or a
harbinger of more trouble ahead and thus a legitimate reason to exit
below.
Apart from the fact that the upcoming news report may already have
除了即将发布的新闻报告可能已经成为退出多头的理由，或者根本就不该进入
been reason to exit the long, or not to have entered on it in the first
多头（见本章早些时候的新闻报告退出）之外，还有另一种方法来解决这个问题
place
(see News Report Exit earlier in this chapter) , there is another way
，那就是看看我们是否能在突破后的走势中发现任何M形反转形态的迹象。
to address this issue and that is to find out if we can detect within the
post-breakout action any signs of an M-pattern reversal formation.
There are only three bars outside the broken pattern line but if we
在破碎的模式线外只有三个柱子，但如果我们逐条跟踪它们，就会发现它
track
them closely, bar by bar, we can see that they indeed make up an
们确实构成了一个M形态变体。看涨突破柱是右腿向上；第9柱是中间部分向下
M-formation variant. The bullish breakout bar is the right leg up; bar
，第10柱是中间部分向上，以及右腿强势柱向下。这是一个M形态变体，蕴含
9 is the middle-part down, and bar 10 is the middle-part up, as well as
着我们在交易组合设置时所欣赏的相同突破潜力。这并不是说我们应该养成在
the right leg powerbar down. This is an M-pattern variant and it harbors
任何不利组合出现时立即退出的习惯；但它们表现得越强，特别是在一开始条
within it the same breakout potential that we have come to appreciate
件并不太理想（但足够可交易）的情况下，它们的信息就越应该引起重视。在
when trading off a combi setup. This is not to suggest that we should
我们的下一个例子中，图6。我们将探讨这种最强大的三柱反转模式的更多变
make
it a habit to immediately exit on any adverse combi; but the stron­
体：一个强势柱后跟一个不利组合。
ger they present themselves, particularly in conditions that weren't too
favorable to begin with (but acceptable enough to trade), the more their
message should be taken to heart. In our next example, Figure 6.6, we
will explore some more variants of this most potent three-bar reversal
pattern: a powerbar followed by an adverse combi.
167
Understanding Price Action
·IFig 6.61
'WIINI.ProReamme.com
eur/usd 5-minute
1 .275
11:00
12:00
uoo
14:00
15:00
16:00
11:00
Figure 6.6 Before closing up bullishly, bar 2 had put in a ceiling test with
the high of bar 1 , plus a touch on the 2Sema and the round number;
this triple provided a solid base for the pattern break combi setup as
depicted, just outside the flag line. It is always nice to see a break im­
mediately take off, but alas, that is no guarantee for reaching target.
On the good side, when a trade starts to falter well away from entry, the
chances to exit with minimal damage, or even with profit, are usually
quite good. Of course, this is beneficial only if the reversal exit is part of
operating tactics.
It may not be so obvious at first sight, but the three-bar progression
3-4 is an M-pattern variant, not unlike the one discussed in the previ­
ous example, Figure 6.5 (concerning the 9- 1 0 situation). In this case, it
is a reversed combi that followed the bullish powerbar, but such order
does not alter the implications of the pattern itself. Readers familiar
with Japanese candlestick analysis may have recognized this three-bar
progression as the evening-star, a pattern renowned for its tendency to
trigger a bearish reversal from the top of a bull swing. Progression 3-4
represents a most classic version: a bullish powerbar on the left, a small
doji in the middle (false high) and a bearish powerbar on the right. The
6-7 progression is a variant of it.
Equally notorious is the evening-star's bullish mirror image, the
morning-star, particularly when situated in the bottom of a bear swing.
Progression 8-9 depicts a rather aggressive version, but if we track the
bars individually, the W-characteristics are easily found: bar 8 forms
the right leg down as well as the middle-part up; the bar in the middle,
168
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
·IF图ig6.6
6.61
'WIINI.ProReamme.com
欧元/美元 5 5-minute
分钟
eur/usd
1 .275
11:00
12:00
uoo
14:00
15:00
16:00
11:00
Figure
6.6 Before closing up bullishly, bar 2 had put in a ceiling test with
图6.6
在看涨收盘之前，第二根柱子与第一根柱子的高点进行了顶部测试，并且
the high of bar 1 , plus a touch on the 2Sema and the round number;
触及了25ema和整数关口；这三重因素为图案突破组合设置提供了坚实的基础，
this
triple provided a solid base for the pattern break combi setup as
如图所示，正好在旗形线的外侧。看到突破立即起飞总是令人愉快，但可惜这
depicted, just outside the flag line. It is always nice to see a break im­
并不能保证达到目标。从好的方面来看，当交易在远离入场点时开始动摇，通
mediately take off, but alas, that is no guarantee for reaching target.
常以最小损失甚至获利退出的机会是相当不错的。当然，这只有在反转退出是
On the good side, when a trade starts to falter well away from entry, the
操作策略的一部分时才是有益的。
chances to exit with minimal damage, or even with profit, are usually
quite good. Of course, this is beneficial only if the reversal exit is part of
operating tactics.
It may not be so obvious at first sight, but the three-bar progression
乍一看，这三根柱子的进展3-4可能并不那么明显，但它是M形态的变体，与
3-4 is an M-pattern variant, not unlike the one discussed in the previ­
前一个例子中讨论的情况（图6.5关于9-10的情况）并无不同。在这种情况下，
ous example, Figure 6.5 (concerning the 9- 1 0 situation). In this case, it
它是一个反向组合，跟随在看涨强势柱之后，但这种顺序并不改变图案本身的
is a reversed combi that followed the bullish powerbar, but such order
含义。熟悉日本蜡烛图分析的读者可能会认出这个三根柱子的进展是黄昏之星
does not alter the implications of the pattern itself. Readers familiar
，这是一种以其从牛市顶部触发看跌反转的倾向而闻名的图案。进展3-4代表了
with
Japanese candlestick analysis may have recognized this three-bar
最经典的版本：左侧是看涨强势柱，中间是小十字星（虚假高点），右侧是看
progression as the evening-star, a pattern renowned for its tendency to
跌强势柱。进展6-7是它的一个变体。
trigger a bearish reversal from the top of a bull swing. Progression 3-4
represents a most classic version: a bullish powerbar on the left, a small
doji in the middle (false high) and a bearish powerbar on the right. The
6-7 progression is a variant of it.
Equally notorious is the evening-star's bullish mirror image, the
同样臭名昭著的是黄昏之星的看涨镜像——晨星，尤其是在熊市反弹的底部。进程8-9描绘了一个相当激进的版本
，但如果我们逐个跟踪这些K线，W形特征很容易被发现：第8根K线形成了右腿向下以及中间部分向上；中间的K线，虽
morning-star, particularly when situated in the bottom of a bear swing.
然不是经典的十字星，却是中间部分向下，并且与第8根K线形成了一个虚假的低点；第9根强势K线是右腿向上。请注
Progression
8-9 depicts a rather aggressive version, but if we track the
意，当第9根K线的高点被突破时，出现了看涨反应（虽然有点过火）。几乎在每一个显著的转折点上，我们都可以找
到黄昏星和晨星形态的变体；但在将它们视为圣杯交易之前，请记住，这些形态最好在更大背景下进行判断。例如，
bars individually, the W-characteristics are easily found: bar 8 forms
在牛市趋势中，黄昏星的突破可能会触发长仓的退出，但并不一定意味着“安全”的短仓入场。
the right leg down as well as the middle-part up; the bar in the middle,
168
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
although not the classic doji, is the middle-part down and a false low
with bar 8; powerbar 9 is the right leg up. Take note of the bullish re­
sponse when the high of bar 9 was taken out (a bit over the top, though) .
It doesn't require much imagination to find variations of evening and
morning-star patterns in almost every notable turn; but before looking
upon them as holy grail setups, do keep in mind that these patterns are
best judged in the light of the bigger picture. For example, an evening­
star break in a bull trend could trigger an exit on a long, but does not
necessarily make for a "safe" entry short.
In accordance with reversal exit policy, we could have used the break
of bar 4 to exit the long position for a minimal loss of 1 or 2 pip. One
could argue that this is against standard procedure, because it involves
the much-refuted break-even exit on a first pullback reaction. All true,
but ifwe compare progression 3-4 with the overall price action up to that
point, we can clearly see that we are not dealing here with a "harmless"
pullback in which the bars calmly retrace against the initial breakout.
In fact, bar 4 was the most bearish bar of the session so far. Another
issue of concern was that the entry on the long was taken about 7 or 8
pip above the 50-level, which had the stop uncomfortably positioned a
little below the adverse magnet. While not necessarily a reason to have
skipped the trade altogether (although I am never a big fan of trading
for continuation in the highs of a rally, especially during lunch hours),
this is certainly something to take into account when a position starts
to struggle and turn.
Furthermore, the 3-4 evening-star was not only of concern to bulls
who had bought themselves in from above the 50-level; those sitting on
profit from the UK morning bull rally will have taken note of the implica­
tions as well (extra sell-side potential). All in all, with adverse pressure
clearly visible, and possibly more of it on the lurk, a reversal exit on the
break of bar 4 is a defensible call.
Not much later the chart sent out another strong warning that bears
meant business above this round number. Following a brief bounce at
5 , the market had printed a second evening-star pattern (6-7) . Interest­
ingly, if we link both of them together, they make up the unmistakable
contours of an even bigger M-pattern (3-7) . If this does still not fit the
169
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
手动退出 - 反转退出
although not the classic doji, is the middle-part down and a false low
虽然不是经典的十字星，但它是中间部分向下，并且与第8根K线形成了一个虚
with bar 8; powerbar 9 is the right leg up. Take note of the bullish re­
假的低点；第9根强势K线是右腿向上。请注意，当第9根K线的高点被突破时，出
sponse when the high of bar 9 was taken out (a bit over the top, though) .
现了看涨反应（虽然有点过火）。几乎在每一个显著的转折点上，我们都可以
It doesn't require much imagination to find variations of evening and
找到黄昏星和晨星形态的变体；但在将它们视为圣杯交易之前，请记住，这
morning-star
patterns in almost every notable turn; but before looking
些形态最好在更大背景下进行判断。例如，在牛市趋势中，黄昏星的突破可能
upon
them as holy grail setups, do keep in mind that these patterns are
会触发长仓的退出，但并不一定意味着“安全”的短仓入场。
best judged in the light of the bigger picture. For example, an evening­
star break in a bull trend could trigger an exit on a long, but does not
necessarily make for a "safe" entry short.
In accordance with reversal exit policy, we could have used the break
根据反转退出政策，我们本可以利用第4根K线的突破来以1或2个点的最小损
of bar 4 to exit the long position for a minimal loss of 1 or 2 pip. One
失退出多头头寸。有人可能会争辩说，这违反了标准程序，因为它涉及在第一
could argue that this is against standard procedure, because it involves
次回调反应中备受争议的保本退出。这一切都是正确的，但如果我们将第3根和
the much-refuted break-even exit on a first pullback reaction. All true,
第4根K线的进展与此时的整体价格走势进行比较，我们可以清楚地看到，这里
but
ifwe compare progression 3-4 with the overall price action up to that
并不是一个"无害的"回调，K线平静地回撤至初始突破的方向。事实上，第4根K
point, we can clearly see that we are not dealing here with a "harmless"
线是迄今为止这一交易时段中最看跌的K线。另一个令人担忧的问题是，进入多
pullback in which the bars calmly retrace against the initial breakout.
头头寸的价格大约在50水平上方7或8个点，这使得止损位置不太理想，稍微低
In fact, bar 4 was the most bearish bar of the session so far. Another
于不利的吸引力。虽然这并不一定是完全放弃交易的理由（尽管我从来不喜欢
issue of concern was that the entry on the long was taken about 7 or 8
在上涨的高点进行延续交易，尤其是在午餐时间），但这确实是一个在头寸开
pip
above the 50-level, which had the stop uncomfortably positioned a
始挣扎和转变时需要考虑的因素。
little below the adverse magnet. While not necessarily a reason to have
skipped the trade altogether (although I am never a big fan of trading
for continuation in the highs of a rally, especially during lunch hours),
this is certainly something to take into account when a position starts
to struggle and turn.
Furthermore, the 3-4 evening-star was not only of concern to bulls
此外，3-4的黄昏之星不仅让那些从50以上价位买入的多头感到担忧；那些从英
who had bought themselves in from above the 50-level; those sitting on
国早盘上涨中获利的人也会注意到其影响（额外的卖方潜力）。总而言之，由于
profit from the UK morning bull rally will have taken note of the implica­
明显的逆向压力，并且可能潜藏着更大的压力，因此在第4根K线突破时进行反转
tions as well (extra sell-side potential). All in all, with adverse pressure
退出是一个站得住脚的选择。
clearly visible, and possibly more of it on the lurk, a reversal exit on the
break of bar 4 is a defensible call.
Not much later the chart sent out another strong warning that bears
不久之后，图表发出了另一个强烈的警告，表明空头在这个整数关口上方是
meant
business above this round number. Following a brief bounce at
有意为之的。在5处短暂反弹后，市场出现了第二个黄昏之星形态（6-7）。有趣
5 , the market had printed a second evening-star pattern (6-7) . Interest­
的是，如果我们把它们连接在一起，它们就构成了更大的M形态（3-7）的清晰
ingly,
if we link both of them together, they make up the unmistakable
轮廓。如果这仍然不符合
contours of an even bigger M-pattern (3-7) . If this does still not fit the
169
Understanding Price Action
description of a reversal exit candidate, then what does. On top of that,
bar 7 had already pierced a trendline on the way down; although a line
perforation by itself is usually not the most reliable harbinger of imme­
diate follow-through, with an M-pattern preceding the break, the event
certainly gains relevance.
Note: Whenever a significant trendline, or even a mediocre pattern
line, gets broken against a position, the implications can be equally
strong as those of the broken right leg powerbar in an M or W-forma­
tion. This implies that these perforations can also be used for exiting
purposes, or at least they should be taken into account on the scale of
pros and cons. In the end, when it comes to staying in or bailing out, it
is always a matter of weighing the technical odds. Should the prospects
of reaching target have gone down considerably, for whatever reason,
then, by all means, bailing out is always an option, regardless of what
exactly triggers the exit. The trick, of course, is to overrule the instinct
of flight and to judge each situation purely on technical grounds.
Later in the session, the chart came up with another evening-star
pattern, and this one, too, clearly lived up to its reputation: progression
1 0- 1 1 (quite a rough variant) . And at the end of the ensuing pullback,
yet another morning-star popped up ( 12- 1 3) .
Slightly off topic: if we are to judge pullback 1 1 - 1 2 purely on its rela­
tion with the foregoing rally 9- 1 0, it was an orderly, diagonal progression
and although it had retraced only about 40 percent, the correction was
substantial enough to reach the trending 25ema. That usually sits
well with a pullback reversal. However, if we consider the origin of the
trending move before it, there is a good reason here to be very cautious
about trading for continuation. Rallies that apparently take off "out of
nowhere", like the 9- 1 0 progression, crossing from bearish to bullish
territory without so much as a fight, are often regarded with a healthy
dose of suspicion. And that tends to have a limiting effect on pullback
reversal participation (and thus on follow-through). This is not to say,
however, that we should label these situations as untradable per se; but
should we decide to give it a shot, some specific entry conditions need
to be taken into account.
First off, zooming in on the action in the turn, we can see that morn-
1 70
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
description of a reversal exit candidate, then what does. On top of that,
反转退出候选者的描述，那什么才符合呢？最重要的是，第7根K线在下跌途中已
bar
7 had already pierced a trendline on the way down; although a line
经刺穿了一条趋势线；虽然单独的线条穿透通常不是立即跟进的最可靠的预兆
perforation by itself is usually not the most reliable harbinger of imme­
，但在M形态之前出现突破，该事件肯定会获得相关性。
diate follow-through, with an M-pattern preceding the break, the event
certainly gains relevance.
Note: Whenever a significant trendline, or even a mediocre pattern
注意：每当一个重要的趋势线，甚至一个普通的模式线被突破时，其影响可
line, gets broken against a position, the implications can be equally
能与M形或W形态中的右腿强力棒被突破的影响一样强。这意味着这些突破也可
strong as those of the broken right leg powerbar in an M or W-forma­
以用于退出目的，或者至少在权衡利弊时应予以考虑。最终，关于是继续持有
tion.
This implies that these perforations can also be used for exiting
还是退出，始终是一个权衡技术概率的问题。如果达到目标的前景由于某种原
purposes, or at least they should be taken into account on the scale of
因大幅下降，那么，毫无疑问，退出始终是一个选项，无论是什么触发了退出
pros and cons. In the end, when it comes to staying in or bailing out, it
。当然，诀窍在于克服逃避的本能，纯粹从技术角度判断每种情况。
is always a matter of weighing the technical odds. Should the prospects
of reaching target have gone down considerably, for whatever reason,
then, by all means, bailing out is always an option, regardless of what
exactly triggers the exit. The trick, of course, is to overrule the instinct
of flight and to judge each situation purely on technical grounds.
Later in the session, the chart came up with another evening-star
在会话的后期，图表出现了另一个黄昏之星形态，这个形态同样证明了它的
pattern, and this one, too, clearly lived up to its reputation: progression
声誉：进展10-11（相当粗糙的变体）。在随后的回调结束时，又出现了另一个
1 0- 1 1 (quite a rough variant) . And at the end of the ensuing pullback,
晨星（12-13）。
yet another morning-star popped up ( 12- 1 3) .
Slightly off topic: if we are to judge pullback 1 1 - 1 2 purely on its rela­
稍微偏离主题：如果我们仅仅根据回调11-12与前期反弹9-10的关系来判断，回
tion with the foregoing rally 9- 1 0, it was an orderly, diagonal progression
调是一个有序的对角线进程，尽管它仅回撤了大约40%，但修正的幅度足够大，
and although it had retraced only about 40 percent, the correction was
达到了趋势的25ema。这通常与回调反转相得益彰。然而，如果我们考虑到之前
substantial enough to reach the trending 25ema. That usually sits
趋势移动的起点，这里有充分的理由对继续交易保持谨慎。那些看似“凭空而起”
well with a pullback reversal. However, if we consider the origin of the
的反弹，比如9-10的进程，毫无抵抗地从看跌转为看涨，往往会引起人们的高度
trending move before it, there is a good reason here to be very cautious
怀疑。这往往会对回调反转的参与产生限制性影响（因此也会影响后续的跟进）
about
trading for continuation. Rallies that apparently take off "out of
。这并不是说我们应该将这些情况标记为不可交易；但如果我们决定尝试一下，
nowhere",
like the 9- 1 0 progression, crossing from bearish to bullish
需要考虑一些特定的入场条件。
territory without so much as a fight, are often regarded with a healthy
dose of suspicion. And that tends to have a limiting effect on pullback
reversal participation (and thus on follow-through). This is not to say,
however, that we should label these situations as untradable per se; but
should we decide to give it a shot, some specific entry conditions need
to be taken into account.
First off, zooming in on the action in the turn, we can see that morn-
首先，放大观察这一轮的走势，我们可以看到早晨之星12-13（回调反转形态）之后出现了一个内包十字星，位于回调线之外。因此，这构成了一个非常好的形态突破组合。但更重要的是入场条件。请注意，形态构建的K线都位于整数关口下方；虽然价格仍然需要突破该关口，但不利磁铁效应的直接危险现在已大大降低。为了理解这种好处，想象一下，在成功突破后不久，价格又回落到整数关口进行测试，比如在14点。如果是这样，它们将有望在25日均线、整数关口和早晨之星形态高点的阻力位测试的三重作用下反弹。而且交易不会变红（止损没有直接危险）。
1 70
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
ing-star 1 2- 13 (pullback reversal setup) was followed by an inside bar
doji outside the pullback line. So this set up a very nice pattern break
combi as well. But more important here were the entry conditions. Note
that the setup bars were all positioned right underneath the round
number level; although prices still needed to trade away from it, the
immediate danger of the adverse magnet was now reduced most consid­
erably. To understand the benefit, imagine for a moment that not long
after a successful breakout, prices would have come back to test the
round number, say, at point 14. If so, they stood to bounce favorably
in a triple of the 25ema, the round number and a ceiling test with the
highs of the morning-star pattern. And without the trade turning red
(no immediate danger for the stop) . Although hardly a guarantee for a
successful outcome, such bounce potential is always a welcome asset
in the total concept of a trade (a bounce could also facilitate a reversal
exit later on).
If we compare this entry setting with the break above bar 2, we can
see that on our earlier trade the round number was not nearly as fa­
vorably positioned, as a consequence of our entry being a number of
pip above it. Insignificant as these differences may appear on the price
axis, they can make all the difference when working with tight stops.
Put in another way: in questionable situations as shown above (regard­
ing continuation) , entry conditions of excellent standing may at times
tip the balance in favor of participation. But do be mindful not to resort
to these tactics when the session's overall pressure speaks unfavorably
of the event. And needless to mention also, conservative traders can
always skip any offer that does not meet their standard of indisputable
validity.
In our next chapter, we will have a closer look at the often subtle
yet crucial differences between favorable and unfavorable conditions.
But before going there, let us take up one last example of reversal exit
technique.
1 71
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual
- Reversal Exit
手动退出 Exits
- 反转退出
ing-star 1 2- 13 (pullback reversal setup) was followed by an inside bar
虽然这很难保证成功的结果，但这种反弹潜力始终是交易整体概念中受欢迎的
doji outside the pullback line. So this set up a very nice pattern break
资产（反弹也可能有助于稍后的反转退出）。虽然这很难保证成功的结果，但
combi as well. But more important here were the entry conditions. Note
这种反弹潜力始终是交易整体概念中受欢迎的资产（反弹也可能有助于稍后的
that
the setup bars were all positioned right underneath the round
反转退出）。
number level; although prices still needed to trade away from it, the
immediate danger of the adverse magnet was now reduced most consid­
erably. To understand the benefit, imagine for a moment that not long
after a successful breakout, prices would have come back to test the
round number, say, at point 14. If so, they stood to bounce favorably
in a triple of the 25ema, the round number and a ceiling test with the
highs of the morning-star pattern. And without the trade turning red
(no immediate danger for the stop) . Although hardly a guarantee for a
successful outcome, such bounce potential is always a welcome asset
in the total concept of a trade (a bounce could also facilitate a reversal
exit later on).
If we compare this entry setting with the break above bar 2, we can
如果我们将此条目设置与第2根柱子上的突破进行比较，我们可以看到在我
see that on our earlier trade the round number was not nearly as fa­
们早期的交易中，整数位的定位并没有那么有利，因为我们的入场点在其上方
vorably
positioned, as a consequence of our entry being a number of
几个点。尽管这些差异在价格轴上看起来微不足道，但在使用紧止损时，它们可
pip
above
it. Insignificant as these differences may appear on the price
能会产生巨大的影响。换句话说：在上面所示的可疑情况下（关于持续性），
axis, they can make all the difference when working with tight stops.
优秀的入场条件有时可能会倾斜参与的天平。但请务必注意，当整个交易时段
Put
in another way: in questionable situations as shown above (regard­
的压力对事件不利时，不要依赖这些策略。更不用说，保守的交易者总是可以
ing continuation) , entry conditions of excellent standing may at times
跳过任何不符合其无可争议有效性标准的报价。
tip the balance in favor of participation. But do be mindful not to resort
to these tactics when the session's overall pressure speaks unfavorably
of the event. And needless to mention also, conservative traders can
always skip any offer that does not meet their standard of indisputable
validity.
In our next chapter, we will have a closer look at the often subtle
在下一章中，我们将更仔细地研究有利和不利条件之间常常微妙但至关重要
yet crucial differences between favorable and unfavorable conditions.
的差异。但在此之前，让我们再举一个反转退出技术的例子。
But before going there, let us take up one last example of reversal exit
technique.
1 71
Understanding Price Action
IFi g 6 .71 www.ProRealTime.com
1 .33
eur/usd 5-minute
• ProRealrme.com
1200
132
14:00
15:00
16:00
18:00
17:00
Figure 6.7 It's not hard to detect the features of an M-pattern r�versal
in progression 4-S-6-7. But how about 4-S? Although less outspoken,
these three bars make up an evening-star variant, not unlike the first
pattern discussed in our previous chart (Figure 6.6, progression 3-4) .
However, in this version, the bear leg at S is rather small in comparison
to the bull leg at 4. When it comes to a signal bar for exiting purpos­
es, a powerbar (in relation to the neighboring activity) definitely earns
preference over a mediocre bar. The break of the latter tends to have
less of a bite, and is thus more prone to result in a shake (reversal exit
trap).
Even though bar S wasn't taken out in this chart, an exit below it
may have been premature for another reason also: the market was in
very bullish mode and had just broken away from a fine bull-flag (2 3
-
hanging from 1 -2 ) . In such an environment, it is fair to anticipate that
not too many bulls would immediately chicken out of their longs when
presented with a relatively minor reversal bar break.
Fair enough. But what if there are two evening-stars in a row. As
we can see, just a few bars later progression 6-7 finished off a textbook
M-pattern formation (4-7) ; and this time the right leg of it was more
prominently displayed (7) .
An M-pattern like 4-7 may not have the power to fully turn a trend­
ing session around, it is certainly an element of concern, specifically to
the parties, like ourselves, who entered on the flag break with a tight
stop for protection. If we then look at where the SO-level magnet was
located in relation to our stop, I believe we have little explaining to do
1 72
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
IF图i g6.7
6 .71 www.ProRealTime.com
1 .33
欧元/美元 5 5-minute
分钟
eur/usd
• ProRealrme.com
1200
132
14:00
15:00
16:00
18:00
17:00
Figure
6.7 It's not hard to detect the features of an M-pattern r�versal
图6.7
识别M形态反转的特征并不难，进程为4-5-6-7。但4-5呢？虽然不那么明显，
in
progression
4-S-6-7. But how about 4-S? Although less outspoken,
这三根K线构成了一个类似于我们在前一张图（图6.6，进程3-4）中讨论的晚星变
these three bars make up an evening-star variant, not unlike the first
体。然而，在这个版本中，5的空头腿与4的多头腿相比相对较小。就退出目的而
pattern
discussed in our previous chart (Figure 6.6, progression 3-4) .
言，强势K线（相对于邻近的活动）绝对比平庸的K线更受青睐。后者的突破往往
However, in this version, the bear leg at S is rather small in comparison
缺乏力度，因此更容易导致震荡（反转退出陷阱）。
to the bull leg at 4. When it comes to a signal bar for exiting purpos­
es, a powerbar (in relation to the neighboring activity) definitely earns
preference over a mediocre bar. The break of the latter tends to have
less of a bite, and is thus more prone to result in a shake (reversal exit
trap).
Even though bar S wasn't taken out in this chart, an exit below it
尽管在这张图中，第5根K线并没有被突破，但在另一个原因上，低于它的退
may have been premature for another reason also: the market was in
出可能也是过早的：市场处于非常看涨的状态，并且刚刚从一个良好的多头旗形
very
bullish mode and had just broken away from a fine bull-flag (2 3
（2-3悬挂于1-2）中突破。在这样的环境中，合理地预期不会有太多多头在面对
hanging from 1 -2 ) . In such an environment, it is fair to anticipate that
相对较小的反转K线突破时立即退缩。
-
not too many bulls would immediately chicken out of their longs when
presented with a relatively minor reversal bar break.
Fair enough. But what if there are two evening-stars in a row. As
说得好。但是如果连续出现两个黄昏星呢？正如我们所看到的，就在几根柱
we
can see, just a few bars later progression 6-7 finished off a textbook
子之后，6-7的走势结束了一个教科书式的M形态（4-7）；这次它的右腿更加明
M-pattern formation (4-7) ; and this time the right leg of it was more
显地展示出来（7）。
prominently displayed (7) .
An M-pattern like 4-7 may not have the power to fully turn a trend­
像4-7这样的M形态可能没有足够的力量完全扭转一个趋势会话，但它无疑是
ing
session around, it is certainly an element of concern, specifically to
一个令人担忧的因素，特别是对于我们这些在旗形突破时以紧止损保护的参与
the parties, like ourselves, who entered on the flag break with a tight
者。如果我们再看看50水平磁铁与我们的止损之间的位置，我相信我们没有什
stop for protection. If we then look at where the SO-level magnet was
么好解释的。
located in relation to our stop, I believe we have little explaining to do
1 72
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
to justify a reversal exit on the break of bar 7. A pretty easy scratch, at
next to no damage.
This leaves us to evaluate the break of the rectangle pattern. The
reader is prompted to take note of a rather common mistake, quite re­
silient among traders, but essentially not too hard to avoid. It regards
the distinction between a reversal pattern for exiting purposes and one
on which break to take position.
Neutrally regarded, the four-hour range within the box had all the
makings of a reversal formation. If we track the bars from left to right,
we could look upon the total progression as an elongated M-pattern, or
maybe a flattened version of the head-and-shoulders formation. Thus,
we cannot blame a bull for exiting his long on the break of bar 8. But
a bear would have done well here to at least think twice about shorting
the event.
How could the break of such a fine barrier get a bear in trouble? If
we solely concentrate on the box progression, shorting below bar 8 does
not look so bad. But if we take into account the bull rally from which
the box was hanging, it is not hard to grasp why the sell-side potential
was limited. For several hours the bullish pressure may have lain dor­
mant, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the chart was still in
bullish mode. In such a session, basically any lower level could trigger
a new round of buying, even below a broken range. This is not to say
that a nimble scalper would not be able to steal some pip in the initial
breakout, but those who aim for more are well advised to at least moni­
tor their positions with a sharp eye on the post-breakout action.
Not serving the bearish cause either was the 50-level running directly
underfoot. And not much below it there waited another level of potential
support: a 50 percent retracement of the UK morning bull rally. All told,
the overall conditions were unsupportive of a serious break, which is
why the short below bar 8 was of dubious quality at best. But now that
we're at it, let us look at the options on how to have handled a situation
like this if caught in it anyway.
Initially, the break met with nice follow-through. Surely a number of
bulls will have exited their longs below the box barrier, and eager bears
will have been happy to play short; that is double pressure in favor
1 73
Chapter 6
第六章
手动退出 - 反转退出
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
to justify a reversal exit on the break of bar 7. A pretty easy scratch, at
为了在第7根柱子的突破上证明反转退出的合理性。这几乎是一个简单的平局，几乎
next to no damage.
没有损失。
This leaves us to evaluate the break of the rectangle pattern. The
这使我们需要评估矩形模式的突破。读者被提示注意一个相当常见的错误
reader
is prompted to take note of a rather common mistake, quite re­
，这在交易者中相当顽固，但本质上并不难避免。它涉及到退出目的的反转模
silient
among traders, but essentially not too hard to avoid. It regards
式与突破后进场的模式之间的区别。
the distinction between a reversal pattern for exiting purposes and one
on which break to take position.
中立地看，箱体内的四小时区间具备了反转形态的所有特征。如果我们从左到右
Neutrally regarded, the four-hour range within the box had all the
追踪这些柱子，我们可以将整体进程视为一个拉长的M形态，或者可能是一个扁平化
makings
of a reversal formation. If we track the bars from left to right,
的头肩形态。因此，我们不能责怪多头在第8根柱子突破时退出其多头头寸。但空头
we
could look upon the total progression as an elongated M-pattern, or
在此至少应该三思而后行，考虑一下是否要在事件中做空。
maybe a flattened version of the head-and-shoulders formation. Thus,
we cannot blame a bull for exiting his long on the break of bar 8. But
a bear would have done well here to at least think twice about shorting
the event.
How could the break of such a fine barrier get a bear in trouble? If
如此精美的障碍物的破裂怎么会让一只熊陷入麻烦呢？如果我们仅仅关注箱体
we
solely concentrate on the box progression, shorting below bar 8 does
的进展，短线在第8根柱子下方做空似乎并不算糟糕。但如果考虑到箱体悬挂的牛
not look so bad. But if we take into account the bull rally from which
市反弹，就不难理解为什么卖方的潜力有限。几个小时以来，牛市压力可能一直
the box was hanging, it is not hard to grasp why the sell-side potential
处于休眠状态，但这并不妨碍图表仍然处于牛市模式。在这样的交易时段，基本
was
limited. For several hours the bullish pressure may have lain dor­
上任何较低的水平都可能触发新一轮的买入，即使是在破裂的区间下方。这并不
mant,
but that doesn't take away from the fact that the chart was still in
是说灵活的短线交易者不能在初始突破中赚取一些点数，但那些追求更多的人最
bullish
mode. In such a session, basically any lower level could trigger
好还是密切关注他们的头寸，特别是在突破后的走势上。
a new round of buying, even below a broken range. This is not to say
that a nimble scalper would not be able to steal some pip in the initial
breakout, but those who aim for more are well advised to at least moni­
tor their positions with a sharp eye on the post-breakout action.
Not serving the bearish cause either was the 50-level running directly
50水平的存在也并没有对看空的局势提供支持。而在其下方不远处，还有另
underfoot.
And not much below it there waited another level of potential
一个潜在支撑位：英国早盘牛市反弹的50%回撤位。总的来说，整体条件并不
support: a 50 percent retracement of the UK morning bull rally. All told,
支持严重的突破，这就是为什么在第8根柱子下方做空的质量至多是可疑的。
the overall conditions were unsupportive of a serious break, which is
但既然我们已经谈到这个问题，让我们看看如果真的被困在这种情况下，应该
why the short below bar 8 was of dubious quality at best. But now that
如何处理。
we're at it, let us look at the options on how to have handled a situation
like this if caught in it anyway.
Initially, the break met with nice follow-through. Surely a number of
最初，突破后有了不错的跟进。肯定有不少多头在箱体障碍下平仓，而渴望
bulls
will have exited their longs below the box barrier, and eager bears
的空头也乐于做空；这对突破形成了双重压力。
will have been happy to play short; that is double pressure in favor
1 73
Understanding Price Action
of the break. However, as is often seen in breakout situations that go
against the tide, participation tends to dry up quickly at the first signs
of stalling momentum. And with reason: if taking position a little too far
away from a breakout level is already dangerous when going with the
trend, then even more so when going against it.
When compared to some of the reversal clusters discussed earlier
on, the 9- 1 1 buildup below the box barrier may appear quite nonde­
script, but this hardly mitigates the message within. Perhaps a bear in
position may have argued that prices stood good chance to bounce back
from the box barrier extension, as in many a post-breakout situation
(think pattern break pullback setup). But before such reasoning is ap­
plied, it would be wise not to lose track of the way the correction to the
broken barrier is built up.
Note: To distinguish between a "harmless" pullback and its more
poisonous counterpart, chart conditions may already put in their bit,
but very often the nature of the correction itself provides all the infor­
mation needed. On balance, an orderly, diagonal pullback to a broken
barrier is much less likely to scare breakout traders out of position than
anything that rebelliously travels sideways for a number of consecutive
bars. Such an ominous cluster may still break in favor of the original
breakout, but should it be broken at the other end, particularly with a
powerbar involved, the adverse implications are best not taken lightly.
Given the poor prospects for the bear break to begin with, perhaps
a reversal exit on the break of bar 1 0 was already a defensible call, but
most certainly on the break of bar 1 1 .
I[ not fully convinced of the bullish implications yet, three bars later
the break of bar 1 2 offered bears another major clue that prices weren't
likely to travel south anytime soon. And if that too was still no reason
to throw in the towel on the short, the absolute point of no return lay
above bar 1 3 . And still at zero damage. Best to accept!
For future purposes, it is elementary to absorb and remember the
way the bearish break below bar 8 was defied, for it is very common
practice. Take specific note of the W-features already in the making,
8 - 1 1 , 8- 1 2 and 8 - 1 3 . But do realize also that this type of response is not
just a consequence of the unfavorable conditions regarding the bear-
1 74
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
of the break. However, as is often seen in breakout situations that go
然而，正如在逆势突破的情况下常常看到的那样，参与度在动能停滞的第一迹象
against the tide, participation tends to dry up quickly at the first signs
出现时往往迅速干涸。这样做是有原因的：如果在突破水平稍远处建仓已经是
of stalling momentum. And with reason: if taking position a little too far
危险的，尤其是在顺势而为时，那么在逆势而为时就更危险了。
away from a breakout level is already dangerous when going with the
trend, then even more so when going against it.
When compared to some of the reversal clusters discussed earlier
与之前讨论的一些反转集群相比，箱体障碍下的9-11积累可能显得相当不起
on, the 9- 1 1 buildup below the box barrier may appear quite nonde­
眼，但这并没有减弱其中的信息。也许一位持有空头头寸的交易者可能会认为
script,
but this hardly mitigates the message within. Perhaps a bear in
，价格有很大机会从箱体障碍延伸处反弹，就像许多突破后的情况一样（想想
position may have argued that prices stood good chance to bounce back
模式突破回调设置）。但在应用这种推理之前，明智的做法是不要失去对突破
from the box barrier extension, as in many a post-breakout situation
障碍的修正是如何构建的这一点的关注。
(think pattern break pullback setup). But before such reasoning is ap­
plied, it would be wise not to lose track of the way the correction to the
broken barrier is built up.
Note: To distinguish between a "harmless" pullback and its more
注意：为了区分“无害”的回调和更具毒性的回调，图表条件可能已经发挥
poisonous
counterpart, chart conditions may already put in their bit,
了作用，但通常情况下，修正本身的性质提供了所有所需的信息。总体而言
but very often the nature of the correction itself provides all the infor­
，向破裂障碍的有序对角线回调比任何连续多根K线横盘整理更不容易吓跑突
mation needed. On balance, an orderly, diagonal pullback to a broken
破交易者。如果出现这样一个不祥的集群，尽管仍可能向原始突破方向突破
barrier
is much less likely to scare breakout traders out of position than
，但如果在另一端被突破，特别是涉及到强势K线时，负面影响最好不要轻视
anything
that rebelliously travels sideways for a number of consecutive
。
bars. Such an ominous cluster may still break in favor of the original
breakout, but should it be broken at the other end, particularly with a
powerbar involved, the adverse implications are best not taken lightly.
Given the poor prospects for the bear break to begin with, perhaps
考虑到熊市突破的前景本来就不佳，也许在第10根K线突破时进行反转退出已
a reversal exit on the break of bar 1 0 was already a defensible call, but
经是一个合理的选择，但在第11根K线突破时更是如此。
most certainly on the break of bar 1 1 .
I[ not fully convinced of the bullish implications yet, three bars later
如果还没有完全相信看涨的暗示，那么在第12根柱子之后的三根柱子突破为空
the break of bar 1 2 offered bears another major clue that prices weren't
头提供了另一个重要线索，表明价格在短期内不太可能向南移动。如果这仍然不
likely to travel south anytime soon. And if that too was still no reason
是放弃空头的理由，那么绝对的不可回头点就在第13根柱子上。而且仍然没有造
to throw in the towel on the short, the absolute point of no return lay
成任何损失。最好接受这一点！
above bar 1 3 . And still at zero damage. Best to accept!
For future purposes, it is elementary to absorb and remember the
为了未来的目的，吸收并记住第8根柱子下方的看跌突破是非常重要的，
way the bearish break below bar 8 was defied, for it is very common
因为这是一种非常常见的做法。特别注意已经形成的W形特征，8-11、8-12和8
practice. Take specific note of the W-features already in the making,
-13。但也要意识到，这种反应不仅仅是由于空头突破的不利条件，通常在与
8 - 1 1 , 8- 1 2 and 8 - 1 3 . But do realize also that this type of response is not
主导趋势一致的“正确”突破后也会看到。因此，当反转退出是操作程序的一
just a consequence of the unfavorable conditions regarding the bear部分时，任何在突破后出现的横盘发展都值得高度关注。
1 74
Chapter 6
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
ish breakout, it is often seen following a "proper" break in line with
dominance as well. Therefore, when the reversal exit is part of operat­
ing procedure, any sideways development following a breakout always
deserves the utmost attention.
The two main things to take away from the chart above is that (a)
trend players in position will not easily exit, and (b) trend players on
the sidelines will be happy to accept almost any favorable level to join
in, even in defiance of a countertrend break. In other words, the more
a trade is set against the prevailing trend, the better the climate for the
contrarian trap.
This concludes our discussion on the reversal exit, but we will see
many more examples in the pages and chapters to come. On a final
note, as much as we can train our eyes to detect the typical warning
signs of an upcoming reversal, not always will we be so fortunate as to
receive them in time. In this respect, the best thing any trader can do for
himself is to at least shun the ventures that stand poor chance of suc­
cess from the outset. Our next chapter is specifically designed to shed
more light on this most crucial concept.
1 75
Chapter 6
第六章
Manual Exits - Reversal Exit
手动退出 - 反转退出
ish
breakout, it is often seen following a "proper" break in line with
在此之后，任何横盘发展都值得高度关注。
dominance as well. Therefore, when the reversal exit is part of operat­
ing procedure, any sideways development following a breakout always
deserves the utmost attention.
The two main things to take away from the
chart above is that (a)
从上面的图表中可以得出的两个主要结论是：(a)
趋势交易者在市场中的位置
trend
players in 处于观望状态的趋势交易者会乐于接受几乎任何有利的水平加
position will not easily exit, and (b) trend players on
不会轻易退出，(b)
the sidelines will be happy to accept almost any favorable level to join
入，即使这与反趋势突破相悖。换句话说，越是与当前趋势相悖的交易，越是为
in,
even in defiance of a countertrend break. In other words, the more
逆势陷阱创造了良好的环境。
a trade is set against the prevailing trend, the better the climate for the
contrarian trap.
This
concludes our discussion on the reversal exit, but we will see
这结束了我们对反转退出的讨论，但在接下来的页面和章节中我们将看到更
many more examples in the pages and chapters to come. On a final
多的例子。最后一点，尽管我们可以训练自己的眼睛去发现即将反转的典型警
note, as much as we can train our eyes to detect the typical warning
告信号，但并不总是能幸运地及时收到这些信号。在这方面，任何交易者能为
signs
of an upcoming reversal, not always will we be so fortunate as to
自己做的最好的事情就是至少避免那些从一开始就成功机会渺茫的投资。我们
receive them in time. In this respect, the best thing any trader can do for
的下一章专门旨在进一步阐明这个至关重要的概念。
himself is to at least shun the ventures that stand poor chance of suc­
cess from the outset. Our next chapter is specifically designed to shed
more light on this most crucial concept.
1 75
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trad ing Breaks for Failure
Now that we have established a practical framework for entry and exit
techniques, it is essential to dig a bit deeper into the subtleties of trade
selection. For even with a decent methodology in place, nothing is more
common than to slip into the habit of accepting wagers of the unsa­
vory kind. Sure enough, psychological issues may play their fair part
in these matters, but all too often the root of this behavior simply lies
within a technical misconception of sorts. And chances are, we need not
look hard to pinpoint the most likely culprit: spending too much atten­
tion on the limited sphere of a setup and too little on the conditions and
pressures in which it shows up.
Saving yourself just one or two unnecessary losses per week could
already mean the difference between success and failure in this field. It
is therefore of crucial importance to embrace the virtues of trade selec­
tion from the very start. And this will keep you pleasantly ahead of all
those who take a less diligent approach.
Learning to be more selective not only serves to minimize our own
misfortunes, it will give us a better view on the trials and tribulations of
our fellow traders in the field. This harbors a strategic benefit not to be
taken lightly. After all, if we perceive the conditions highly unsupportive
of a certain break, yet we see traders act on the offer, this could entail
that at least some of these parties may soon find themselves forced to
bail out. And as we know, their flights to safety could help to swing the
market the other way around.
1 77
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trad ing Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
Now that we have established a practical framework for entry and exit
现在我们已经建立了一个实用的进出场技术框架，深入探讨交易选择的细微
techniques, it is essential to dig a bit deeper into the subtleties of trade
差别是至关重要的。即使有一个不错的方法论，最常见的情况就是不自觉地
selection.
For even with a decent methodology in place, nothing is more
接受不当的交易。心理问题可能在这些问题中发挥了一定的作用，但往往这
common than to slip into the habit of accepting wagers of the unsa­
种行为的根源仅仅在于某种技术上的误解。而且，我们很可能不需要费力去
vory kind. Sure enough, psychological issues may play their fair part
找出最可能的罪魁祸首：过于关注一个设置的有限范围，而对其出现时的条
in
these matters, but all too often the root of this behavior simply lies
件和压力关注不足。
within a technical misconception of sorts. And chances are, we need not
look hard to pinpoint the most likely culprit: spending too much atten­
tion on the limited sphere of a setup and too little on the conditions and
pressures in which it shows up.
Saving yourself just one or two unnecessary losses per week could
每周仅仅节省一到两个不必要的损失，可能就意味着在这个领域成功与失败
already mean the difference between success and failure in this field. It
之间的差别。因此，从一开始就拥抱交易选择的美德至关重要。这将使你在所有
is
therefore of crucial importance to embrace the virtues of trade selec­
那些采取不那么勤奋的方法的人中保持领先。
tion from the very start. And this will keep you pleasantly ahead of all
those who take a less diligent approach.
Learning to be more selective not only serves to minimize our own
学习变得更加挑剔不仅有助于减少我们自己的不幸，还能让我们更好地了解
misfortunes,
it will give us a better view on the trials and tribulations of
同行交易者在市场中的试炼与磨难。这带来了一个不容小觑的战略利益。毕竟，
our fellow traders in the field. This harbors a strategic benefit not to be
如果我们认为某个突破的条件极其不支持，但我们看到交易者仍然在行动，这可
taken lightly. After all, if we perceive the conditions highly unsupportive
能意味着至少有一些人很快会被迫退出。正如我们所知，他们的安全撤退可能会
of a certain break, yet we see traders act on the offer, this could entail
帮助市场反向波动。
that at least some of these parties may soon find themselves forced to
bail out. And as we know, their flights to safety could help to swing the
market the other way around.
1 77
Understanding Price Action
There is one such setting that, in a certain climate of conditions,
could set up so well that it deserves a special spot in our toolbox of
favorite trade setups. This is when a particular breakout shows all the
characteristics of a tradable event (boundary, buildup, signal bar, etc) ,
if not for the fact that it clearly goes up against the dominant pressure.
Should the trap indeed fall shut on those who accept, this could set up
a counterbreak in line with dominance.
Understandably, not all false breakouts automatically qualify to be
traded in the opposite direction, which is why we need to establish a
good view on the requirements involved. But those that do pass the test
may very well be among the most potent of trade setups when it comes
to generating immediate follow-through. Should we take position on
such a counterbreak event, we can refer to this as trading a break for
failure.
How is this different from our other ventures? The main difference
lies within the contrarian touch. On a regular pattern break trade, for
example, the pre-breakout tension at the pattern boundary builds up
towards a breakout in line with the dominant pressure; on these type of
wagers there is no contrarian element involved. When we trade a break
for failure, on the other hand, the initial buildup is directed towards
what we perceive to be the nonfavorable side of the market. Now the
idea is not to trade the break from this buildup progression, but to an­
ticipate and trade the failure of it. (At times, this setup can bear strong
resemblance with a pullback reversal, or even a pattern break variant.)
In the coming pages, several chart examples will demonstrate the
tactics involved, but do keep in mind that before even considering to
exploit the follies of others, our first priority, always, is to avoid getting
caught in the notorious traps ourselves. Below is a list of common trad­
ing errors, all of which we have already taken up one way or another in
earlier discussions. Yet as easy as these mistakes can be pointed out on
the drawing board, with similar ease they can be overlooked in a live­
market environment where all sorts of devious emotions are known to
take their toll on a trader's better judgment.
Typical trading errors are:
1 78
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
There
is one such setting that, in a certain climate of conditions,
在某种条件下，有一个特定的环境，可能会设置得如此完美，以至于值得在
could set up so well that it deserves a special spot in our toolbox of
我们最喜欢的交易设置工具箱中占据一个特殊的位置。这就是当一个特定的突
favorite trade setups. This is when a particular breakout shows all the
破显示出所有可交易事件的特征（边界、积累、信号柱等），如果不是因为它
characteristics
of a tradable event (boundary, buildup, signal bar, etc) ,
明显与主导压力相对立的话。如果陷阱确实在接受者身上关闭，这可能会设置
if not for the fact that it clearly goes up against the dominant pressure.
一个与主导方向一致的反向突破。
Should the trap indeed fall shut on those who accept, this could set up
a counterbreak in line with dominance.
Understandably, not all false breakouts automatically qualify to be
可以理解，并非所有的假突破都自动符合反向交易的条件，这就是我们需要
traded
in the opposite direction, which is why we need to establish a
明确涉及的要求的原因。但那些通过测试的假突破可能是最强大的交易设置之
good view on the requirements involved. But those that do pass the test
一，能够迅速产生跟进。如果我们在这样的反突破事件中采取了仓位，我们可
may
very well be among the most potent of trade setups when it comes
以称之为交易失败的突破。
to generating immediate follow-through. Should we take position on
such a counterbreak event, we can refer to this as trading a break for
failure.
How is this different from our other ventures? The main difference
这与我们其他的交易有什么不同？主要的区别在于反向的元素。在常规的模
lies within the contrarian touch. On a regular pattern break trade, for
式突破交易中，例如，模式边界的突破前紧张情绪会朝着与主导压力一致的方向
example, the pre-breakout tension at the pattern boundary builds up
积累；而在这些类型的交易中没有反向的元素。另一方面，当我们交易失败的突
towards a breakout in line with the dominant pressure; on these type of
破时，最初的积累是朝着我们认为不利的一方市场。现在，想法不是从这种积累
wagers there is no contrarian element involved. When we trade a break
进程中交易突破，而是预测并交易其失败。（有时，这种设置可能与回调反转或
for failure, on the other hand, the initial buildup is directed towards
甚至模式突破变体有很强的相似性。）在接下来的页面中，几个图表示例将展示
what we perceive to be the nonfavorable side of the market. Now the
所涉及的策略，但请记住，在考虑利用他人的失误之前，我们的首要任务始终是
idea
is not to trade the break from this buildup progression, but to an­
避免自己陷入臭名昭著的陷阱。以下是一些常见的交易错误，所有这些我们在早
ticipate
and trade the failure of it. (At times, this setup can bear strong
期讨论中已经以某种方式提到过。然而，尽管这些错误在图纸上很容易指出，但
resemblance
with a pullback reversal, or even a pattern break variant.)
在实时市场环境中，各种狡猾的情绪往往会对交易者的更好判断产生影响，这些
In
the coming pages, several chart examples will demonstrate the
错误同样容易被忽视。
tactics involved, but do keep in mind that before even considering to
exploit the follies of others, our first priority, always, is to avoid getting
caught in the notorious traps ourselves. Below is a list of common trad­
ing errors, all of which we have already taken up one way or another in
earlier discussions. Yet as easy as these mistakes can be pointed out on
the drawing board, with similar ease they can be overlooked in a live­
market environment where all sorts of devious emotions are known to
take their toll on a trader's better judgment.
Typical
trading errors are:
典型的交易错误包括：
1 78
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
1 : Trading against a strong trend or an otherwise dominant pres­
sure.
2: Trading with the pressure but into resistance overhead or under­
foot.
3: Perceiving a trend to be in place when the market is actually
rangmg.
4: Choosing entries too far removed from the 25ema, or with little
regard for the adverse round number magnet.
) 5: Picking entries in a frantic environment in which the majority of
bars exceed their average span.
6: Aiming to trade a reversal of a pullback that shows aggressive
powerbars or clusters within.
7: Front-running a break or turn of the market with too little buildup
to warrant such action.
Ultimately, knowing when to skip or trade a break is a matter of trading
experience, no doubt, but there are quite a few pointers to pick up that
even the novice should have little trouble putting into practice straight­
away. As stated, most of these essentials have already been addressed,
but with our focus mainly on the timing aspect for trade acceptance.
Let us now take a slightly different approach by discussing some clas­
sic tricks and traps that should give us fair warning as to when to stay
out; and while we're at it, why not explore also if there are ways to take
advantage of some of these treacherous breakouts, by trading them for
failure in the opposite direction.
1 79
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
1 : Trading against a strong trend or an otherwise dominant pres­
1：逆着强劲趋势或占据主导地位的压力进行交易。
力。
sure.
2:
2:在压力下进行交易，但面临上方或下方的阻力。
Trading with the pressure but into resistance overhead or under­
foot.
3:
Perceiving a trend to be in place when the market is actually
3: 认为市场处于趋势中，而实际上市场在区间震荡。
rangmg.
4:选择的入场点距离25ema过远，或对不利的整数关口缺乏考虑。
Choosing entries too far removed from the 25ema, or with little
4:
regard for the adverse round number magnet.
) 5:
5: 在大多数K线超过其平均波幅的混乱环境中选择入场点。
Picking entries in a frantic environment in which the majority of
bars exceed their average span.
6:
6: 旨在交易显示出强烈力量条或集群的回调反转。
Aiming to trade a reversal of a pullback that shows aggressive
powerbars or clusters within.
7: 在市场的突破或转折前进行前置交易，但缺乏足够的积累以证明这种行为的合理
7:
Front-running a break or turn of the market with too little buildup
to warrant such action.
性。
Ultimately, knowing when to skip or trade a break is a matter of trading
最终，知道何时跳过或交易突破无疑是交易经验的问题，但有一些提示，即使
experience, no doubt, but there are quite a few pointers to pick up that
是新手也应该能轻松付诸实践。如前所述，这些要点大多数已经被提及，但我
even the novice should have little trouble putting into practice straight­
们主要关注交易接受的时机方面。现在让我们采取稍微不同的方法，讨论一些
away. As stated, most of these essentials have already been addressed,
经典的技巧和陷阱，这些应该给我们提供公平的警告，告诉我们何时应该保持
but with our focus mainly on the timing aspect for trade acceptance.
距离；同时，为什么不探索一下是否有办法利用这些危险的突破，通过反向交
Let us now take a slightly different approach by discussing some clas­
易来获取收益。
sic tricks and traps that should give us fair warning as to when to stay
out; and while we're at it, why not explore also if there are ways to take
advantage of some of these treacherous breakouts, by trading them for
failure in the opposite direction.
1 79
Understanding Price Action
I Fig 7.11
WWW'. ProRealTlme.com
eur/usd 5-minute
1 .365
3
2
'"'00
11:00
12:00
Figure 7.1 Trending sessions are easy to spot. Unless we are dealing
with a lengthy flag we need only to follow the direction of the 25ema to
understand who is currently in charge. And nine times out of ten, that
is the line also to follow for our trades. This information is so easy to
obtain, so unambiguous in nature, and such an excellent filter that it's
hard to believe that anyone would willingly discard it. But many do by
mistake.
Beyond question, one of the main causes for traders to get tricked
into rebellion is the appearance of a so-called "reversal pattern". The
bull trend in Figure 7. 1 shows three such patterns (above the dotted
lines), each with reversal features of its own. What these patterns share
in common, though, is the typical horizontal barrier below them and the
fact that all three were broken towards the 2 5ema. In contrast, bull-flag
1 -2 , was broken away from the average (hence it being referred to as a
"continuation pattern") .
More often than not, trading a break of a reversal pattern straight
into a trending 25ema is a gamble more than a trade, and a poor one at
that. But here's the interesting part: when such a break indeed harbors
all the makings of a trap, we may soon have an excellent shot at trading
the event for failure.
In a way, the tactics involved are not far removed from pullback
reversal technique, but we do have to consider a specific signal bar re­
quirement. This is best explained with some practical examples.
Let's start out with the break at bar 4. First off, there's no need for
close scrutiny to see why this event was a trade-for-failure candidate:
180
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Fig7.17.11
I图
WWW'. ProRealTlme.com
eur/usd
欧元/美元 55-minute
分钟
1 .365
3
141
跳过
2
ProRealTime 上午 08:00
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11:00
12:00
Figure
7.1 Trending sessions are easy to spot. Unless we are dealing
图7.1显示，趋势会话很容易被发现。除非我们处理的是一个较长的旗形，否则我
with a lengthy flag we need only to follow the direction of the 25ema to
们只需跟随25日均线的方向，就能理解当前谁在主导。而十有八九，这也是我们交
understand
who is currently in charge. And nine times out of ten, that
易时要遵循的线。这些信息获取起来非常简单，性质上毫不含糊，并且是一个极
is the line also to follow for our trades. This information is so easy to
好的过滤器，令人难以相信会有人愿意放弃它。但许多人却是出于错误而这样做
obtain, so unambiguous in nature, and such an excellent filter that it's
。
hard to believe that anyone would willingly discard it. But many do by
mistake.
Beyond question, one of the main causes for traders to get tricked
毫无疑问，交易者被诱惑反叛的主要原因之一是所谓的“反转形态”的出现。
into
rebellion is the appearance of a so-called "reversal pattern". The
图7.1中的牛市趋势显示了三个这样的形态（在虚线之上），每个形态都有其独
bull
trend in Figure 7. 1 shows three such patterns (above the dotted
特的反转特征。然而，这些形态有一个共同点，那就是它们下面的典型水平障
lines),
each with reversal features of its own. What these patterns share
碍，以及这三个形态都向25日均线突破。相比之下，牛旗形1-2则是向均线外突
in
common, though, is the typical horizontal barrier below them and the
破（因此被称为“延续形态”）。
fact that all three were broken towards the 2 5ema. In contrast, bull-flag
1 -2 , was broken away from the average (hence it being referred to as a
"continuation pattern") .
More often than not, trading a break of a reversal pattern straight
往往，直接在趋势25ema上交易反转模式的突破更像是一场赌博，而不是一笔
into
a trending 25ema is a gamble more than a trade, and a poor one at
交易，而且是一笔糟糕的交易。但有趣的是：当这样的突破确实具备了陷阱的所
that. But here's the interesting part: when such a break indeed harbors
有特征时，我们可能很快就会有一个绝佳的机会来交易这一事件的失败。
all the makings of a trap, we may soon have an excellent shot at trading
the event for failure.
In a way, the tactics involved are not far removed from pullback
在某种程度上，所涉及的战术与回调反转技术并没有太大区别，但我们确实
reversal
technique, but we do have to consider a specific signal bar re­
需要考虑一个特定的信号柱要求。这最好通过一些实际例子来解释。
quirement. This is best explained with some practical examples.
Let's start out with the break at bar 4. First off, there's no need for
让我们从第4根柱子的突破开始。首先，不需要仔细观察就能看出这个事件为何
close scrutiny to see why this event was a trade-for-failure candidate:
是一个失败交易的候选者：
180
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
bears had shorted straight into a bullish triple of the 25ema, the round
number and the 50 percent retracement of the 2-3 bull swing.
When aiming to trade for failure, it is vital not to run ahead of things
but to calmly monitor the way the market handles the break first. In a
bear break situation, special attention should go out to a bullish turn­
around bar; the first to come along could already set up the re-break
entry (5).
Of critical importance, though, is the high of this turnaround bar.
Since we are looking to trade the break below the dotted barrier for
failure, we have to make sure that our entry is back above it (failure
confirmation). This implies that the high of our signal bar should reside
either at the exact level of the broken barrier or slightly above it. Under
no circumstances should we enter on a break of this bar below the bar­
rier.
As long as we keep this requirement in mind, the situation can in­
deed be traded like a regular pullback reversal. A bullish bonus here
was to see the 4-5 cluster take on the features of a mini W -pattern mid­
dIe-part, or, if you wish, a thicker version of the morning-star pattern.
Another favorable element was to see bar 5 set up a flag break entry as
well. All told, this represented a trade-for-failure setup of the high-odds
category (enter long above bar 5).
lt may not be so obvious at first sight, but the break below the 6-7-8
block is almost an exact copy of the situation on the left. Once again
bears had shown little regard for the bullish conditions. And again they
had shorted straight into a trending average and into a 50/60 percent
retracement of a foregoing swing (5-7) ; and while doing so, they had
totally neglected the technical support of a ceiling test with our former
signal bar (low of 9 tests high of 5).
What may have inspired this bearish bravery? Maybe these players
had perceived the lower top at 7 to be a sign of bullish weakness. Maybe
they were only gunning for the round number magnet about 1 5 pip
below; who is to say what these bears were thinking. But we can form
ourselves a pretty good idea of what they failed to consider: the hazards
of defying the tide.
Of course, all this is not to suggest that you cannot trade against
181
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
bears had shorted straight into a bullish triple of the 25ema, the round
空头直接跌入了25日均线的看涨三重支撑、整数关口和2-3牛市波动的50%回撤
number
and the 50 percent retracement of the 2-3 bull swing.
位。
When aiming to trade for failure, it is vital not to run ahead of things
在旨在交易失败时，重要的是不要急于行动，而是冷静地监控市场如何处理
but
to 在空头突破的情况下，特别需要关注看涨的反转柱；第一个出现的柱子可
calmly monitor the way the market handles the break first. In a
突破。
bear break situation, special attention should go out to a bullish turn­
能已经为重新突破入场设置了条件（5）。
around bar; the first to come along could already set up the re-break
entry (5).
然而，至关重要的是这个反转柱的高点。由于我们希望在破碎的虚线障碍下进行失
Of critical importance, though, is the high of this turnaround bar.
败交易，我们必须确保我们的入场点在其上方（失败确认）。这意味着我们的信号柱
Since we are looking to trade the break below the dotted barrier for
的高点应该恰好位于被打破的障碍水平上，或者稍微高于它。绝对不应在此柱子下方
failure,
we have to make sure that our entry is back above it (failure
的突破时入场。 This implies that the high of our signal bar should reside
confirmation).
either at the exact level of the broken barrier or slightly above it. Under
no circumstances should we enter on a break of this bar below the bar­
rier.
As long as we keep this requirement in mind, the situation can in­
只要我们牢记这一要求，情况就可以像常规的回调反转一样进行交易。这里
deed be traded like a regular pullback reversal. A bullish bonus here
的一个看涨的好处是看到4-5的聚集呈现出迷你W形态的中间部分，或者，如果
was to see the 4-5 cluster take on the features of a mini W -pattern mid­
你愿意，可以看作是早晨之星模式的一个更厚的版本。另一个有利的因素是看
dIe-part, or, if you wish, a thicker version of the morning-star pattern.
到第5根柱子设置了一个旗形突破入场信号。总的来说，这代表了一个高概率类
Another favorable element was to see bar 5 set up a flag break entry as
别的失败交易设置（在第5根柱子上方做多）。
well. All told, this represented a trade-for-failure setup of the high-odds
category (enter long above bar 5).
lt may not be so obvious at first sight, but the break below the 6-7-8
乍一看，这可能并不那么明显，但突破6-7-8区块的情况几乎是左侧情况的完
block is almost an exact copy of the situation on the left. Once again
全复制。再次，空头对看涨条件表现出很少的关注。而且他们再次直接在一个
bears had shown little regard for the bullish conditions. And again they
趋势均线和前一个波动（5-7）的50/60%的回撤位上做空；而在这样做的同时，
had
shorted straight into a trending average and into a 50/60 percent
他们完全忽视了我们前一个信号柱（9的低点测试5的高点）的技术支撑。
retracement of a foregoing swing (5-7) ; and while doing so, they had
totally neglected the technical support of a ceiling test with our former
signal bar (low of 9 tests high of 5).
What may have inspired this bearish bravery? Maybe
these players
是什么激发了这种看跌的勇气？也许这些交易者认为
7 处的较低顶部是看涨
had
perceived the lower top at 7 to be
sign of bullish weakness. Maybe
疲软的迹象。也许他们只是瞄准了大约
15a个点以下的整数磁铁；谁又能说这些
they were only gunning for the round number magnet about 1 5 pip
空头在想什么呢。但我们可以对自己形成一个相当好的想法，即他们未能考虑
below;
who is to say what these bears were thinking. But we can form
的事情：违抗潮流的危险。
ourselves a pretty good idea of what they failed to consider: the hazards
of defying the tide.
Of course, all this is not to suggest that you cannot trade against
当然，所有这些并不是要暗示你不能逆势交易
181
Understanding Price Action
dominance with decent odds attached, but if you insist on going the
obstinate route, seldom a smart idea is to pull the rebellious trigger
straight into a trending 25ema.
Note: An interesting element within of the trade-for-failure concept
is that due to the faltering breakout, we often see the blocky features of
the perceived reversal pattern take on the more angular characteristics
of a flag formation, which is a continuation pattern. In the 6-7-8 situ­
ation, it had taken just two extra bars to produce this transformation
(combi 9 added). By the way, the entry here was offered above the inside
bar of the combi, as in a regular combi breakout.
This was already the third pattern breakout of the session, but the
bullish enthusiasm was no less powerful. Granted, bull parties did have
a very nice 50-level magnet to shoot for. But what about the second leg
of this breakout, the near vertical swing 1 0- 1 1 . Were bulls overdoing it?
It is a common observation that when prices accelerate in an already
mature rally, say, in the third or fourth leg of it, this often indicates the
final burst of the trending environment; while this principle by itself is
rather fickle and not easy to exploit, it can serve as an excellent remind­
er not to be too eager in regard to the next continuation offer.
Aside from the acceleration issue, the break of bar 1 2 was an easy
skip for several reasons. For starters, trading for continuation in the
highs of a bull rally on such a shallow correction cannot be regarded as
a high-odds play. And the entry was offered far away from the 25ema.
Plus there was the issue of the broken 50-level magnet.
This brings us to the third reversal block of the session, the 1 1 - 1 3
situation. With prices run up well over 1 00 pip since the start of the UK
Open at 09:00, the market had now entered what is often referred to
as the "lunch-hour doldrums" ( 12 :00- 1 4 :00) . Indeed, in the majority of
sessions there isn't much firework going on in this low-volume environ­
ment; but with an uncontested rally on the board, and plenty of profits
yet to be pocketed by the bulls, it is certainly not unthinkable for the
lunch hours to put in their fair bit of action, too.
Recalling our discussions on the reversal exit in Chapter 6, the 1 01 3 progression is a perfect example of an M-pattern reversal in the
182
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
dominance with decent odds attached, but if you insist on going the
以不错的赔率占据优势，但如果你坚持走顽固的路线，很少有聪明的想法是直
obstinate route,
seldom a smart idea is to pull the rebellious trigger
接对着趋势
25 指数移动平均线扣动叛逆的扳机。
straight into a trending 25ema.
Note: An interesting element within of the trade-for-failure concept
注意：在交易失败的概念中，一个有趣的元素是，由于突破乏力，我们常常
is that due to the faltering breakout, we often see the blocky features of
看到被认为的反转形态的块状特征变得更加角度分明，呈现出旗形形态的特征，
the perceived reversal pattern take on the more angular characteristics
这是一种持续形态。在6-7-8的情况下，仅仅多用了两个额外的K线就产生了这种
of a flag formation, which is a continuation pattern. In the 6-7-8 situ­
转变（组合9已添加）。顺便提一下，这里的入场点是在组合的内部K线之上，正
ation, it had taken just two extra bars to produce this transformation
如常规的组合突破一样。
(combi 9 added). By the way, the entry here was offered above the inside
bar of the combi, as in a regular combi breakout.
This
was already the third pattern breakout of the session, but the
这已经是本次交易中第三个形态突破，但多头的热情丝毫没有减弱。诚然
bullish
enthusiasm was no less powerful. Granted, bull parties did have
，多头确实有一个非常不错的50级磁铁可以追逐。但是，这次突破的第二个阶
a very nice 50-level magnet to shoot for. But what about the second leg
段，近乎垂直的10-11波段呢？多头是否过于激进？一个常见的观察是，当价格
of this breakout, the near vertical swing 1 0- 1 1 . Were bulls overdoing it?
在已经成熟的上涨中加速时，比如在第三或第四个波段，这通常表明趋势环境
It is a common observation that when prices accelerate in an already
的最后一击；虽然这一原则本身相当不稳定且不易利用，但它可以很好地
mature rally, say, in the third or fourth leg of it, this often indicates the
提醒我们在面对下一个持续性机会时不要过于急切。
final burst of the trending environment; while this principle by itself is
rather fickle and not easy to exploit, it can serve as an excellent remind­
er not to be too eager in regard to the next continuation offer.
除了加速问题，12号的突破由于几个原因而变得容易。首先，在牛市反弹的高
Aside from the acceleration issue, the break of bar 1 2 was an easy
skip for several reasons. For starters, trading for continuation in the
点上进行继续交易，在如此浅的修正中不能被视为高概率的操作。而且，入场点
highs of a bull rally on such a shallow correction cannot be regarded as
远离25日均线。此外，还有破位的50水平磁铁的问题。
a high-odds play. And the entry was offered far away from the 25ema.
Plus there was the issue of the broken 50-level magnet.
This
brings us to the third reversal block of the session, the 1 1 - 1 3
这将我们带到了本次交易的第三个反转区块，即11-13的情况。自英国开盘（
situation.
With prices run up well over 1 00 pip since the start of the UK
09:00）以来，价格已经上涨超过100点，市场现在进入了通常被称为“午餐时间
Open at 09:00, the market had now entered what is often referred to
沉闷”（12:00-14:00）的阶段。确实，在大多数交易中，这种低成交量的环境中并
as
the "lunch-hour doldrums" ( 12 :00- 1 4 :00) . Indeed, in the majority of
没有太多的火花；但在已有的无争议反弹的情况下，牛市仍有大量利润待收，
sessions there isn't much firework going on in this low-volume environ­
因此午餐时间也不乏可能出现一些动作。
ment; but with an uncontested rally on the board, and plenty of profits
yet to be pocketed by the bulls, it is certainly not unthinkable for the
lunch hours to put in their fair bit of action, too.
Recalling our discussions on the reversal exit in Chapter 6, the 1 0回顾我们在第六章关于反转退出的讨论，10-13的进程是一个M形反转的完美
1例子。
3 progression is a perfect example of an M-pattern reversal in the
182
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
making. Notice also how the right side of the middle-part had tried to
break out on the bull side before spinning around bearishly in powerbar
fashion ( 1 3) . A bull in position could not have wished for a better hint to
get the bearish message (reversal exit option below bar 13).
Was the break below bar 1 3 a shortable event as well? Frankly, when
compared to the earlier reversal attempts, this offer definitely had more
merit; but let us not forget that the session itself was still in bullish
mode (higher lows throughout, trending 25ema). Thus, conservatively
seen, the break is a skip. But it is hard to argue with a nimble scalper
for taking his chances on a quick short into the double magnet of the
round number and the 25ema.
With the average still trending up nicely, why not trade long again
above bar 14? Apart from the fact that the M-pattern block already
hindered the bullish outlook most considerably, the chart offers an in­
disputable clue that the time was not right for a buy-side wager: the
bear break below the dotted line had not yet been proven false. Even
if bar 14 had set up more powerfully as a turnaround bar (or perhaps
was seen as part of a morning-star variant with its neighbors left and
right) , still the entry was offered below the barrier of the overhanging
resistance. And that's a definite skip.
183
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
making. Notice also how the right side of the middle-part had tried to
注意到中间部分的右侧曾试图在牛市一侧突破，但在强势柱形图（13）中反转
break
out on the bull side before spinning around bearishly in powerbar
为熊市。处于多头位置的交易者不可能希望得到更好的提示来获取熊市信号（
fashion
( 1 3) . A bull in position could not have wished for a better hint to
在柱形图13下方的反转退出选项）。
get the bearish message (reversal exit option below bar 13).
Was the break below bar 1 3 a shortable event as well? Frankly, when
柱形图13下方的突破是否也是一个可做空的事件？坦率地说，与早期的反转尝
compared to the earlier reversal attempts, this offer definitely had more
试相比，这次机会确实更有价值；但我们不能忘记，整个交易时段仍处于牛市模
merit; but let us not forget that the session itself was still in bullish
式（持续的高低点，25日均线趋势）。因此，从保守的角度来看，这次突破可以
mode (higher lows throughout, trending 25ema). Thus, conservatively
跳过。但对于灵活的短线交易者来说，快速做空进入圆整数字和25日均线的双重
seen, the break is a skip. But it is hard to argue with a nimble scalper
磁力区是值得冒险的。
for taking his chances on a quick short into the double magnet of the
round number and the 25ema.
With the average still trending up nicely, why not trade long again
鉴于平均值仍在稳步上升，为什么不在第14根柱子上再次做多呢？除了M形
above bar 14? Apart from the fact that the M-pattern block already
图案区块已经极大地阻碍了看涨前景这一事实外，图表还提供了一个无可争辩
hindered the bullish outlook most considerably, the chart offers an in­
的线索，表明此时并不适合进行买入：虚线下方的熊市突破尚未被证明是错误
disputable clue that the time was not right for a buy-side wager: the
的。即使第14根柱子更有力地设定为反转柱（或者可能被视为与左右邻近柱子
bear
break below the dotted line had not yet been proven false. Even
一起形成早晨之星变体），入场仍然是在悬而未决的阻力障碍下方。这绝对是
if
bar
14 had set up more powerfully as a turnaround bar (or perhaps
一个跳过的机会。
was seen as part of a morning-star variant with its neighbors left and
right) , still the entry was offered below the barrier of the overhanging
resistance. And that's a definite skip.
183
Understanding Price Action
1Fig 7.21 www.ProR••lTime.com
7
eur/usd 5-minut.
2
8
-1 .445
',
I
1Q'OO
1200
13:00
14:00
15;00
Figure 7.2 Now here is a reversal pattern truly worthy of acknowledge­
ment (big head-and-shoulders variant 3 - 1 4) . But do note that it had
taken no less than three hours since the high at 7 was put in for the
bullish dominance to fully drain out.
Within the total pattern there were several smaller patterns of in­
terest to be detected. The first notable development was bull-flag 2-4,
hanging from the pole 1-2. This correction had started out as a tiny
M-pattern reversal (above the little horizontal line) , but with four doji
bars added (3-4) , the pattern had taken on the shape of a flag, thereby
turning itself into a continuation candidate.
The break above combi 3 is an easy skip: prices still resided below
the mini barrier of the bearish breakout. But the break above bar 4 does
not qualify as a high-odds wager either. At that point the flag was still
rather small in relation to its pole and there was the adverse magnet of
the average to consider. Unpleasant also was the total absence of sup­
port beneath this flag in case of a faltering start.
Next up was another flag formation (5-6) , decent in shape but hang­
ing a bit awkwardly from the rather short pole 4-5. Perhaps we could
say that it related to a larger pole, the two-legged swing 1-5. More in­
teresting, this flag had found solid footing in the 2 5ema, the round
number and a technical test with the flag on the left (favorable triple) .
Notice also that the last three bars had formed a three-bar combi (6).
With no room for another bar in the squeeze to get printed, something
had to give. We can look upon this as a flag break setup, but since a
bull break would confirm the failure of the bear break in the low of the
184
. ...
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
1Fig
图7.27.21 www.ProR••lTime.com
7
欧元/美元
5 分钟
eur/usd 5-minut.
2
8
-1 .445
-跳过-
',
I
1Q'OO
1200
13:00
14:00
15;00
Figure
7.2 Now here is a reversal pattern truly worthy of acknowledge­
图7.2 现在这里有一个真正值得认可的反转模式（大头肩顶变体3-14）。但请注意
ment (big head-and-shoulders variant 3 - 1 4) . But do note that it had
，自从7点的高点出现以来，牛市的主导地位完全消耗掉已经过去了整整三个小时
taken no less than three hours since the high at 7 was put in for the
。
bullish dominance to fully drain out.
Within the total pattern there were several smaller patterns of2-4in­
在整体模式中，有几个较小的模式值得关注。第一个显著的发展是牛旗
terest
to be1-2detected.
The first notable development
was bull-flag 2-4,
，悬挂在杆
上。这个修正最初是一个微小的
M 型反转（在小水平线之上）
hanging from the pole 1-2. This correction had started out as a tiny
，但随着四根十字星柱（3-4）的加入，该模式呈现出旗帜的形状，从而转变为
M-pattern reversal (above the little horizontal line) , but with four doji
一个延续候选。
bars added (3-4) , the pattern had taken on the shape of a flag, thereby
turning itself into a continuation candidate.
The break
above combi 3 is an easy skip: prices still resided below
突破组合
3 是一个容易跳过的信号：价格仍然低于看跌突破的小障碍。但突破
the4 mini
barrier of the bearish breakout. But the break above bar 4 does
柱
也不算是一个高概率的赌注。在那时，旗帜仍然相对于其杆子来说相当小，
not qualify as a high-odds wager either. At that point the flag was still
并且还要考虑到平均线的不利吸引力。令人不快的是，在这个旗帜下方完全没有
rather
small in relation to its pole and there was the adverse magnet of
支撑，以防止启动时的失误。
the average to consider. Unpleasant also was the total absence of sup­
port beneath this flag in case of a faltering start.
Next up was another flag formation (5-6) , decent in shape but hang­
接下来是另一个旗形构造（5-6），形状不错，但从相对较短的杆子4-5上悬
ing a bit awkwardly from the rather short pole 4-5. Perhaps we could
挂得有些尴尬。也许我们可以说它与一个更大的杆子有关，即双腿摆动1-5。更
say that it related to a larger pole, the two-legged swing 1-5. More in­
有趣的是，这面旗帜在25ema、整数关口和左侧的技术测试中找到了坚实的立足
teresting,
this flag had found solid footing in the 2 5ema, the round
点（有利的三重测试）。
number and a technical test with the flag on the left (favorable triple) .
Notice also that the last three bars had formed a three-bar combi (6).
还要注意，最后三根柱子形成了一个三柱组合（6）。由于在挤压中没有空间再
With no room for another bar in the squeeze to get printed, something
打印出另一根柱子，因此必须有所突破。我们可以将其视为旗形突破的设置，但由于
had to give. We can look upon this as a flag break setup, but since a
牛市突破将确认在低点的熊市突破失败，
bull break would confirm the failure of the bear break in the low of the
184
. ...
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
flag, this was a trade-for-failure setup as well. (Not that it matters how
we label our breaks. )
As we know, accelerations in the highs o r lows o f a mature rally can
be a gift as well as a curse (6-7) . Surely there was no denying the bullish
supremacy here, but it remained to be seen how this dominance would
hold up in the often tricky lunch-hour doldrums ( 1 2: 00- 14:00) .
In the first hour of consolidation (box) , bulls stood their ground well,
with prices calmly drifting sideways a little above the 25ema. No trouble
on the bullish horizon yet. Things took an interesting turn, though,
when new bulls came to attack the session high with a break in bar 8,
but then were forced to retreat from it.
Just like a failed reversal can swing things around in favor of con­
tinuation, so too can a failed continuation trigger a reaction in favor of a
reversal (think double top or bottom). Such failure may not have imme­
diate consequences upon occurrence, but it will not go unnoticed, and
could trigger demoralization further down the line. Or put differently,
if you were a bull in position and you saw that M-pattern block take
shape on your screen (box) , would you not be at least a little concerned?
The box break at T was a bit thinly built up, hence the tease annota­
tion, but the incident did give fair warning of weakening support. If not
yet on target in the 6-7 breakout, this may have called for a reversal
exit.
A few bars later, the box barrier skirmish (T -9) got "resolved" in favor
of the bears with a break below bar 9. With now more buildup showing,
was this a signal to play short?
Shorting below bar 9 does make sense in some respects; for starters,
this second break confirmed the failure of the bulls to undo the first
break at T. Taking into account also that the M-pattern was already the
third corrective block to show up, and the most prominent one at that,
it makes sense to at least consider our sell-side options-if only with the
intention to exploit the pull of the round number magnet about 1 5 pip
below.
But before we put our precious capital at risk, let us not forget to
examine the obstructive elements that may have kept our short from
reaching target. How about the earlier lows of 3 and 6 (pattern line ex-
185
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
flag, this was a trade-for-failure setup as well. (Not that it matters how
警告，这也是一个失败交易的设置。（我们如何标记我们的突破并不重要。）
we label our breaks. )
As we know, accelerations in the highs o r lows o f a mature rally can
正如我们所知，成熟反弹的高点或低点的加速既可以是礼物，也可以是诅咒
be a gift as well as a curse (6-7) . Surely there was no denying the bullish
（6-7）。毫无疑问，这里存在着看涨的主导地位，但这股主导地位在通常棘手
supremacy here, but it remained to be seen how this dominance would
的午餐时间低迷（12:00-14:00）中将如何保持，仍有待观察。
hold up in the often tricky lunch-hour doldrums ( 1 2: 00- 14:00) .
In the first hour of consolidation (box) , bulls stood their ground well,
在巩固的第一个小时（箱体）中，多头表现得相当坚定，价格在25ema上方平稳
with
prices calmly drifting sideways a little above the 25ema. No trouble
地横盘整理，尚未出现任何问题。然而，事情在第8根K线突破时发生了有趣的变化
on
the bullish horizon yet. Things took an interesting turn, though,
，新多头试图攻击会话高点，但随后被迫撤退。
when new bulls came to attack the session high with a break in bar 8,
but then were forced to retreat from it.
Just like a failed reversal can swing things around in favor of con­
就像失败的反转可以使局势向继续发展倾斜一样，失败的继续也可以触发反
tinuation,
so too can a failed continuation trigger a reaction in favor of a
转的反应（想想双顶或双底）。这种失败可能在发生时不会立即产生后果，但
reversal
(think double top or bottom). Such failure may not have imme­
不会被忽视，可能会在后续引发士气低落。换句话说，如果你是一名多头，并
diate
consequences
upon occurrence, but it will not go unnoticed, and
且在屏幕上看到M形态的形成（箱体），难道你不会感到有些担忧吗？在T时的
could
trigger demoralization further down the line. Or put differently,
箱体突破构建得有些薄弱，因此有了“诱惑”的注释，但这一事件确实给出了支持
if
you were a bull in position and you saw that M-pattern block take
减弱的警告。如果在6-7的突破中尚未达到目标，这可能会要求进行反转退出。
shape on your screen (box) , would you not be at least a little concerned?
The box break at T was a bit thinly built up, hence the tease annota­
tion, but the incident did give fair warning of weakening support. If not
yet on target in the 6-7 breakout, this may have called for a reversal
exit.
A few bars later, the box barrier skirmish (T -9) got "resolved" in favor
几根K线后，箱体障碍冲突（T-9）在熊市一方得以“解决”，并突破了第9根K
of the bears with a break below bar 9. With now more buildup showing,
线。现在没有更多的积累显示，这是否是做空的信号？
was this a signal to play short?
Shorting below bar 9 does make sense in some respects; for starters,
在第9根K线下做空在某些方面是有道理的；首先，这第二次突破确认了多头未能
this
second break confirmed the failure of the bulls to undo the first
扭转T点的第一次突破。再加上M形态已经是第三个出现的修正区块，而且是最显著
break at T. Taking into account also that the M-pattern was already the
的一个，因此至少考虑我们的卖出选项是有意义的——即使只是为了利用大约15个点
third corrective block to show up, and the most prominent one at that,
的整数关口的吸引力。
it makes sense to at least consider our sell-side options-if only with the
intention to exploit the pull of the round number magnet about 1 5 pip
below.
But before we put our precious capital at risk, let us not forget to
但在我们将宝贵的资本置于风险之前，别忘了检查可能阻碍我们的空头达
examine the obstructive elements that may have kept our short from
到目标的障碍因素。比如说，早期的3和6的低点（模式线exreaching target. How about the earlier lows of 3 and 6 (pattern line ex-
185
Understanding Price Action
tension); how about the cluster progression in the flag on the left; how
about the fact that the chart had been very bullish from the UK Open
on, which may have left quite a few bulls lurking for lower prices still. As
we can see, as much as there was pressure to be detected that favored
the sell side, the situation wasn't exactly hopeless for the bulls. And all
the while the 25ema was still trending up.
As it turned out, bears indeed were unable to push through the pat­
tern line defense. This printed yet another higher low in the chart, but
definitely not something to pursue. After all, the break above bar 10 was
offered below the broken box, and that simply rules out the trade-for­
failure option.
But how about the break above combi 1 1 ; if we visualize the box to
be extended a little to the right, we can see that prices were now push­
ing up against the bottom barrier of it, meaning a break above combi 1 1
would now technically confirm, if somewhat belatedly, the failure of the
reversal break below bar 9 . All true, but not every such re-break calls
for action.
Note: Without putting a strict rule on it, trading for failure is best
done in response to the first reversal attempt in a fresh dominant swing.
That is when the market is most likely to reject the reversal breakout
in favor of continuation. The later in the trend a reversal pattern shows
up, and the blockier its features, the harder it will be for the dominant
parties to dismantle the reversal implications.
In this particular instance, brave bulls did manage to eat themselves
back through the contents of the 7-8 block, but this left them extremely
vulnerable upon reaching the highs ( 12). When the selling then started,
they had no ammo left to fight back.
On their subsequent retreat, bulls not only left a triple top in their
wake (7-8- 1 2) , they inadvertently helped to complete the final arch of
the big head-and-shoulders formation. As is often seen, though, they
took it upon themselves not to give up on their cause without a good
fight first. This resulted in yet another element of interest: a squeeze in
pattern line support that ended with a bearish combi ( 1 3- 14).
When measured against the total span of the big head-and-shoul­
ders pattern, this pre-breakout tension wasn't very extensive-a few
186
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
tension);
how about the cluster progression
in the flag on the left; how
紧张); 左侧旗帜上的集群进展怎么样;
还有图表从英国开盘以来一直非常看涨，
about the fact that the chart had been very bullish from the UK Open
这可能让一些多头仍然在等待更低的价格。正如我们所看到的，尽管有压力显
on,
which may have left quite a few bulls lurking for lower prices still. As
示出卖方的偏好，但对多头来说情况并不完全绝望。与此同时，25ema仍在上升
we can see, as much as there was pressure to be detected that favored
趋势中。
the sell side, the situation wasn't exactly hopeless for the bulls. And all
the while the 25ema was still trending up.
As it turned out, bears indeed were unable to push through the pat­
事实证明，空头确实无法突破模式线的防线。这在图表中打印出另一个更高
tern
line defense. This printed yet another higher low in the chart, but
的低点，但绝对不是值得追求的事情。毕竟，突破第10根柱子是在破损的箱体下
definitely
not something to pursue. After all, the break above bar 10 was
方进行的，这简单地排除了失败交易的选项。
offered below the broken box, and that simply rules out the trade-for­
failure option.
But how about the break
above combi 1 1 ; if we visualize the box to
但是第11组合的突破怎么样;
如果我们将箱体稍微向右延伸，可以看到价格现在
be extended a little to the right, we can see that prices were now push­
正推向它的底部障碍，这意味着突破第11组合现在在技术上确认了，尽管有些迟到
ing
up against the bottom barrier of it, meaning a break above combi 1 1
，突破第9根柱子下方的反转失败。所有这些都是事实，但并不是每一次这样的重
would
now technically confirm, if somewhat belatedly, the failure of the
新突破都需要采取行动。
reversal break below bar 9 . All true, but not every such re-break calls
for action.
Note: Without putting a strict rule on it, trading for failure is best
注意：在没有严格规则的情况下，失败交易最好是在新主导趋势中的第一次
done in response to the first reversal attempt in a fresh dominant swing.
反转尝试时进行。这时市场最有可能拒绝反转突破，继续原有趋势。反转形态
That
is when the market is most likely to reject the reversal breakout
出现在趋势越晚，特征越明显，主导方拆解反转含义的难度就越大。
in favor of continuation. The later in the trend a reversal pattern shows
up, and the blockier its features, the harder it will be for the dominant
parties to dismantle the reversal implications.
In
this particular instance, brave bulls did manage to eat themselves
在这个特定的情况下，勇敢的多头确实设法穿过7-8区间的内容，但这使他们
back
through the contents of the 7-8 block, but this left them extremely
在达到高点（12）时极为脆弱。当卖盘开始时，他们已经没有反击的弹药了。
vulnerable upon reaching the highs ( 12). When the selling then started,
they had no ammo left to fight back.
On their subsequent retreat, bulls not only left a triple top in their
在随后的撤退中，多头不仅留下了一个三重顶（7-8-12），还无意中帮助完
wake
(7-8- 1 2) , they inadvertently helped to complete the final arch of
成了大头肩顶形态的最后弧线。正如常见的那样，他们并没有轻易放弃自己的
the big head-and-shoulders formation. As is often seen, though, they
目标，而是先进行了一场激烈的斗争。这导致了另一个值得关注的元素：支撑
took
it upon themselves not to give up on their cause without a good
线的挤压，最终形成了一个看跌组合（13-14）。
fight first. This resulted in yet another element of interest: a squeeze in
pattern line support that ended with a bearish combi ( 1 3- 14).
When measured against the total span of the big head-and-shoul­
与大头肩顶形态的整体跨度相比，这次突破前的紧张并不算太大——几根
ders pattern, this pre-breakout tension wasn't very extensive-a few
186
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
more bars of buildup would have been nice; on the other hand, the
odds for follow-through certainly weren't poor. In most such "border­
line" cases it is probably best to just bite the bullet and fire along (enter
short on the break of combi 14).
Note: A round number not far from entry-or any other magnet, for
that matter-could provide a trade with an excellent start. Upon arrival,
however, the bounce effect could instantly reclaim all of the current
gains. In fact, this type of response is so notoriously commonplace that
it has led many traders to adopt a routine of raking in some, if not all of
the profits in a danger zone with the intention to reposition after a "fa­
vorable" bounce (basically a variant of the resistance exit). In theory this
makes perfect sense, but in reality, this practice harbors some dangers
of its own: it is easy to miss out on a lot of follow-through in all cases
where the market simply refuses to bounce (sufficiently) .
Alas, sticking to the bracket, although largely recommended, is
no guarantee for a successful wager either. In the session above, the
bounce up from the round number may very well have shaken out our
short in the high of bar 1 5. If so, it is crucial to accept such mishap
with grace and above all, not to lose track of the action! Recalling our
discussions on the pattern break pullback setup in Chapter 5, when a
post-breakout correction puts in a ceiling test back inside the broken
pattern, this could easily set up a second break in line with the first.
Thus, rather than walking away from a shake in an act of disgust, it
may pay to stay alert for another try (re-enter short below bar 1 5) .
187
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
more
bars of buildup would have been nice; on the other hand, the
构建的柱子会更好；另一方面，后续发展的机会并不差。在大多数这种“边缘”
odds for follow-through certainly weren't poor. In most such "border­
情况下，最好还是咬紧牙关，果断出手（在组合14的突破时做空）。
line" cases it is probably best to just bite the bullet and fire along (enter
short on the break of combi 14).
注意：靠近入场的整数位——或者其他任何吸引点——可能会为交易提供
Note: A round number not far from entry-or any other magnet, for
that matter-could provide a trade with an excellent start. Upon arrival,
一个良好的开端。然而，一旦到达，反弹效应可能会立即收回当前的所有收益
however, the bounce effect could instantly reclaim all of the current
。事实上，这种反应是如此普遍，以至于许多交易者养成了在危险区域收回部
gains.
In fact, this type of response is so notoriously commonplace that
分或全部利润的常规，目的是在“有利”的反弹后重新定位（基本上是一种阻力
it
has led many traders to adopt a routine of raking in some, if not all of
退出的变体）。理论上，这完全有道理，但在现实中，这种做法本身也存在一
the profits in a danger zone with the intention to reposition after a "fa­
些危险：在市场拒绝反弹（足够）时，很容易错过大量的后续发展。
vorable" bounce (basically a variant of the resistance exit). In theory this
makes perfect sense, but in reality, this practice harbors some dangers
of its own: it is easy to miss out on a lot of follow-through in all cases
where the market simply refuses to bounce (sufficiently) .
Alas, sticking to the bracket, although largely recommended, is
可惜的是，尽管坚持使用支撑位被广泛推荐，但这并不能保证成功的投注
no guarantee for a successful wager either. In the session above, the
。在上面的交易中，从整数关口的反弹很可能已经在第15根柱子的高点将我们
bounce up from the round number may very well have shaken out our
的空头震出。如果是这样，接受这样的失误至关重要，最重要的是不要失去对
short in the high of bar 1 5. If so, it is crucial to accept such mishap
市场动态的关注！回想我们在第5章中讨论的模式突破回调设置，当突破后的
with grace and above all, not to lose track of the action! Recalling our
修正在破位模式内进行顶部测试时，这很可能会为与第一次相符的第二次突破
discussions on the pattern break pullback setup in Chapter 5, when a
铺平道路。因此，与其因震荡而愤怒地离开，不如保持警觉，寻找再次尝试的
post-breakout correction puts in a ceiling test back inside the broken
机会（在第15根柱子下方重新入场做空）。
pattern, this could easily set up a second break in line with the first.
Thus, rather than walking away from a shake in an act of disgust, it
may pay to stay alert for another try (re-enter short below bar 1 5) .
187
Understanding Price Aaion
IFig 7.31
WHW.ProRealTime.com
1 .43
eur/usd 5-minute
C ProReaITime .com
06:00
0000
09:00
'0:00
11:00
12:00
Figure 7.3 Around the EU Open at 08:00, a small but gracious flag hung
harmoniously from its pole. The last three bars in it were jammed tight
in a squeeze between the 25ema and the flag line ( 1) ; looking closely,
we can detect within the latter element the up/down motions of an
evening-star, which is a mini three-bar M-pattern with reversal implica­
tions of its own. A nice flag. On the downside, if we consider the hours
prior to 08:00, this set up as a continuation trade in the lows of the
Asian session. As we know, the first volume of the EU /UK session is
never so keen on immediately following up on the Asian pressure, par­
ticularly in the lows or highs of it-but that is no reason to skip a trade
per se. We could even say that this flag harbored a jailed attempt of
the bulls to counter the Asian pressure, which basically turned it into
a trade-for-failure setup. But let us not overanalyze the situation: this
was a decent short setup with decent odds attached.
Shortly after the UK Open, bulls had tried to hammer in a double­
bottom with combi 2 , but their efforts were quickly undone. Bears,
however, despite the backup of powerbar 3, proved wholly unable to
capitalize on their advantage. Another fine example of how tricky this
opening hour can be (09:00- 1 0:00) .
Whenever a sideways cluster of bars halts an advance or decline,
there are basically two options of interest. Either this cluster builds up
towards another leg in line with the dominant pressure (continuation) ,
or it is getting ready to defy it (reversal). While the market's verdict will
only be known after the fact, in plenty of cases the attentive obselVer
may already pick up some cues that favor one outcome more than the
188
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
IFig
图7.37.31
WHW.ProRealTime.com
1 .43
eur/usd
欧元/美元 55-minute
分钟
C ProReaITime .com
06:00
0000
09:00
'0:00
11:00
12:00
Figure
7.3 Around the EU Open at 08:00, a small but gracious flag hung
图7.3 在欧盟开盘时08:00，一个小而优雅的旗帜和谐地悬挂在其杆上。它的最后
harmoniously
from its pole. The last three bars in it were jammed tight
三根柱子紧紧挤压在25ema和旗帜线之间（1）；仔细观察，我们可以在后者元
in a squeeze between the 25ema and the flag line ( 1) ; looking closely,
素中发现一个黄昏之星的上下运动，这是一种具有反转含义的迷你三柱M形模
we
can detect within the latter element the up/down motions of an
式。一个不错的旗帜。向下看，如果我们考虑08:00之前的几个小时，这在亚洲
evening-star,
which is a mini three-bar M-pattern with reversal implica­
时段的低点形成了一个延续交易。正如我们所知，欧盟/英国时段的第一波成
tions of its own. A nice flag. On the downside, if we consider the hours
交量通常不太愿意立即跟进亚洲压力，特别是在其低点或高点，但这并不是跳
prior
to 08:00, this set up as a continuation trade in the lows of the
过交易的理由。我们甚至可以说，这面旗帜隐藏了多头对抗亚洲压力的失败尝
Asian session. As we know, the first volume of the EU /UK session is
试，这基本上将其转变为一个失败交易的设置。但我们不必过度分析这种情况
never
so keen on immediately following up on the Asian pressure, par­
：这是一个不错的做空设置，附带着不错的赔率。
ticularly in the lows or highs of it-but that is no reason to skip a trade
per se. We could even say that this flag harbored a jailed attempt of
the bulls to counter the Asian pressure, which basically turned it into
a trade-for-failure setup. But let us not overanalyze the situation: this
was a decent short setup with decent odds attached.
Shortly after the UK Open, bulls had tried to hammer in a double­
在英国公开赛后不久，多头试图通过组合2形成一个双底，但他们的努力很
bottom with combi 2 , but their efforts were quickly undone. Bears,
快被打破。尽管空头得到了动力条3的支持，但他们完全无法利用这一优势。这
however, despite the backup of powerbar 3, proved wholly unable to
又是一个很好的例子，说明这个开盘小时（09:00-10:00）是多么棘手。
capitalize on their advantage. Another fine example of how tricky this
opening hour can be (09:00- 1 0:00) .
Whenever a sideways cluster of bars halts an advance or decline,
每当一组横向的柱状图阻止了上涨或下跌时，基本上有两个值得关注的选
there are basically two options of interest. Either this cluster builds up
项。要么这个集群朝着与主导压力一致的另一个腿发展（延续），要么它准备
towards another leg in line with the dominant pressure (continuation) ,
好去反抗它（反转）。虽然市场的裁决只有在事后才能知道，但在很多情况下
or it is getting ready to defy it (reversal). While the market's verdict will
，细心的观察者可能已经能够捕捉到一些线索，倾向于某种结果。
only be known after the fact, in plenty of cases the attentive obselVer
may already pick up some cues that favor one outcome more than the
188
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
other. Plotting a box around the clustering action will certainly help to
keep good track of the pressures in play (pullback 4-5 provided the box
boundaries).
As already stated, when a sideways progression shows up as part of
a first pullback to the 25ema, its reversal implications are usually not
that potent. The bear-flag at 08:00 is a good example: a failed reversal
that played out in favor of bearish continuation. In the later stages of
a rally, the contrarian prospects naturally improve. Especially when a
sideways cluster shows up at quite some distance from the trending
25ema (as was the case with the box), and then gets broken towards it,
contrarian parties stand to benefit from a very powerful ally: the magnet
of the 25ema.
When not in position, all this is just information; we would neither
use such a box for shorting purposes, nor go long above it. Of course,
when already in position, the adverse break of a box could have serious
consequences.
So let us examine this situation as if still in short position. To begin,
the 4-6 double bottom showed signs of contrarian effort, but not of ma­
jor concern yet. More indicative was the break of the box in powerbar
7. Perhaps we could already exit our short at this point, but in strict
technical terms, the bar had only just stuck its head through the top of
the box without being broken itself (no technical confirmation yet).
In this instance, the break was quickly confirmed when bar 8 took
out the high of bar 7 (reversal exit). If still not convinced of the bullish
implications, bears would have done well not to ignore the subsequent
break of bar 8 also, which was now a combi breakout.
As prices were reeled in by the 25ema magnet, but then started to
struggle in it, this may have prompted some eager bears to consider
their sell-side options. But before doing so ourselves, let us not forget
to check the conditions first. As discussed in Chapter 5, an important
aspect in pullback reversal technique is to see a correction of interest
travel diagonally and orderly against the dominant swing, with little
signs of aggression within. With this in mind, hopefully it isn't hard
to see why the short below bar 9 is annotated as a skip: although di­
agonally shaped and guided along by a decent pullback line, the 6-9
189
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
other. Plotting a box around the clustering action will certainly help to
在聚类操作周围绘制一个框，肯定会帮助我们很好地跟踪施加的压力（回调4-5提
keep good track of the pressures in play (pullback 4-5 provided the box
供了框的边界）。
boundaries).
As already stated, when a sideways progression shows up as part of
如前所述，当横向进展作为首次回调到25ema的一部分出现时，其反转含义通
a first pullback to the 25ema, its reversal implications are usually not
常并不强烈。08:00的熊旗是一个很好的例子：一个失败的反转，最终导致了看跌
that potent. The bear-flag at 08:00 is a good example: a failed reversal
的持续。在上涨的后期阶段，逆向前景自然会改善。特别是当一个横向聚集出现
that
played out in favor of bearish continuation. In the later stages of
在距离趋势25ema相当远的地方（就像框的情况一样），然后被突破朝向它时，逆
a rally, the contrarian prospects naturally improve. Especially when a
向参与者将从一个非常强大的盟友中受益：25ema的吸引力。
sideways cluster shows up at quite some distance from the trending
25ema (as was the case with the box), and then gets broken towards it,
contrarian parties stand to benefit from a very powerful ally: the magnet
of the 25ema.
When not in position, all this is just information; we would neither
当不在仓位时，这一切只是信息；我们既不会将这样的箱子用于做空，也不会在
use
such a box for shorting purposes, nor go long above it. Of course,
其上方做多。当然，当已经在仓位时，箱子的逆向突破可能会带来严重后果。
when already in position, the adverse break of a box could have serious
consequences.
So let us examine this situation as if still in short position. To begin,
让我们假设仍然处于做空仓位来检查这种情况。首先，4-6的双底显示出反向
the 4-6 double bottom showed signs of contrarian effort, but not of ma­
努力的迹象，但尚未引起重大关注。更具指示性的是第7根强势柱的箱子突破。
jor concern yet. More indicative was the break of the box in powerbar
也许我们可以在这一点上退出我们的空头，但从严格的技术角度来看，这根柱
7. Perhaps we could already exit our short at this point, but in strict
子只是刚刚探出箱子的顶部，并没有真正突破（尚无技术确认）。
technical terms, the bar had only just stuck its head through the top of
the box without being broken itself (no technical confirmation yet).
In this instance, the break was quickly confirmed when bar 8 took
在这种情况下，当第8根柱子突破第7根柱子的高点时，突破很快得到了确认（
out
the high of bar 7 (reversal exit). If still not convinced of the bullish
反转退出）。如果仍然对看涨的含义不太相信，空头们最好不要忽视第8根柱子的
implications,
bears would have done well not to ignore the subsequent
后续突破，这现在是一个组合突破。
break of bar 8 also, which was now a combi breakout.
As prices were reeled in by the 25ema magnet, but then started to
由于价格被25日均线吸引，但随后开始在其附近挣扎，这可能促使一些急切
struggle
in it, this may have prompted some eager bears to consider
的空头考虑他们的卖出选择。但在我们自己这样做之前，请不要忘记首先检查
their sell-side options. But before doing so ourselves, let us not forget
条件。正如第5章所讨论的，回调反转技术的一个重要方面是观察感兴趣的回调
to check the conditions first. As discussed in Chapter 5, an important
以对角线且有序的方式逆着主导趋势运行，且内部几乎没有攻击性迹象。考虑
aspect
in pullback reversal technique is to see a correction of interest
到这一点，希望不难理解为什么低于第9根K线的做空被标记为跳过：虽然呈对
travel diagonally and orderly against the dominant swing, with little
角线形状并由一条像样的回调线引导，但6-9
signs of aggression within. With this in mind, hopefully it isn't hard
to see why the short below bar 9 is annotated as a skip: although di­
agonally shaped and guided along by a decent pullback line, the 6-9
189
Understanding Price Action
correction was part of a box pattern and contained some powerful bull­
ish bars as well. In fact, we could look upon this bull swing as the
right leg of a W-pattern reversal; and that puts a short against it in the
low-odds corner. Mter all, to get to target, prices would now have to
plow themselves a way through the contents of the middle-part section
below; not only willthis keep many bears from hopping along, there will
be plenty of contrarians on the lurk to buy themselves in from the base
of that very same cluster. (All this in terms of probability.)
W and M-patterns in the lows or highs of a rally are a very common
occurrence. By themselves they may not possess the power to fully flip a
trending session around, but it will certainly pay to at least respect the
implications attached to their presence.
As it turned out, the supportive powers of the box progression were
not even tested on first go; but if we extend the level to the right (dotted
line) , it is plain to see that the market had not forgotten about its techni­
cal significance (sharp bounce in the low of bar 1 0) .
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Figure 7.4 If we compare this chart with the previous one, Figure 7.3,
the price action may send out a totally different feel, if only for the dif­
ference in volatility. But when viewed price technically, the similarities
are actually quite striking. Both charts feature a bear rally from a flag
breakout in a round number area and then later on a bullish turn­
around on the break of a W-middle-part box. But where the bear-flag
in the previous chart met all the requirements of a valid short setup,
the frantic motion within the flag above basically rendered the situation
untradable ( 1 -4).
190
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
correction was part of a box pattern and contained some powerful bull­
的回调是箱体模式的一部分，并且包含一些强劲的看涨K线。事实上，我们可以
ish
bars as well. In fact, we could look upon this bull swing as the
将这种看涨走势视为W型反转的右腿；这使得做空它的胜算很低。毕竟，为了
right
leg of a W-pattern reversal; and that puts a short against it in the
达到目标，价格现在必须在下方中间部分的阻力中开辟一条道路；这不仅会阻
low-odds corner. Mter all, to get to target, prices would now have to
止许多空头加入，而且会有大量的逆向投资者潜伏着从该集群的底部买入。（
plow
themselves a way through the contents of the middle-part section
所有这些都是就概率而言。）
below; not only willthis keep many bears from hopping along, there will
be plenty of contrarians on the lurk to buy themselves in from the base
of that very same cluster. (All this in terms of probability.)
W and M-patterns in the lows or highs of a rally are a very common
在反弹的低点或高点形成的W和M形态是非常常见的现象。单独来看，它们
occurrence. By themselves they may not possess the power to fully flip a
可能没有足够的力量完全扭转一个趋势会话，但至少尊重它们存在所附带的含
trending session around, but it will certainly pay to at least respect the
义是非常重要的。
implications attached to their presence.
As it turned out, the supportive powers of the box progression were
事实证明，箱体进程的支撑力量在第一次尝试时并没有被测试；但如果我
not
even tested on first go; but if we extend the level to the right (dotted
们将水平线向右延伸（虚线），很明显市场并没有忘记其技术意义（在第10根
line) , it is plain to see that the market had not forgotten about its techni­
柱子的低点出现了急剧反弹）。
cal significance (sharp bounce in the low of bar 1 0) .
图7.4
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Figure
7.4 If we compare this chart with the previous one, Figure 7.3,
图7.4
如果我们将这张图与之前的图，图7.3进行比较，价格走势可能会传达出完
the
price action may send out a totally different feel, if only for the dif­
全不同的感觉，仅仅是由于波动性的差异。但从技术上看，两个图表的相似之处
ference in volatility. But when viewed price technically, the similarities
实际上非常显著。两个图表都展示了在一个整数区域的旗形突破后的熊市反弹，
are actually quite striking. Both charts feature a bear rally from a flag
然后在W形中间部分箱体突破时出现了看涨的反转。但在之前的图表中，熊旗满
breakout
in a round number area and then later on a bullish turn­
足了有效做空设置的所有要求，而上方旗形内的疯狂运动基本上使得该情况无法
around
on
交易（1-4）。the break of a W-middle-part box. But where the bear-flag
in the previous chart met all the requirements of a valid short setup,
the frantic motion within the flag above basically rendered the situation
untradable ( 1 -4).
190
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks (or Failure
Whenever the majority of bars visibly exceed their average span,
standard protection may no longer suffice. In such an environment,
a standard stop may already get taken out in an otherwise relatively
harmless pullback. Of course, there is always the option of adjusting
the 20/ 1 0 bracket to a wider span, if only on the stop side, but my
advice would be to do so only if the volatile conditions persist for many
sessions on end. Within a single session, more often than not, things
will "turn back to normal" soon enough.
The short below bar 3 is an easy skip; it went straight up against the
double-bottom element to the left ( 1 -2); the offer below bar 4 was of bet­
ter standing (more buildup), but in the light of the fickle conditions, this
did not meet the requirements of a conservative wager either.
The high of bar 5 shows an interesting test with the £lag line exten­
sion, but the bar itself was way too tall to set up a valid pattern break
pullback short. Nonetheless, the market did continue its bearish path
and not much later even fell through the OO-level with hardly a contrar­
ian bull in sight.
Inevitably, at some point in a bear rally bulls will come in more
strongly; their first notable feat here was to test back the round num­
ber in the 6-7 correction. Three reasons immediately come to mind
why this did not set up a valid short below combi 7: there was no har­
mony between the shallow £lag and the tall pole from which it hung
(5-6); the short entry was offered at quite some distance away from the
25ema (adverse magnet) ; the unbroken pullback line offered potential
obstruction that coincided with a level of technical support (highs of the
three-bar block starting at 6).
Notwithstanding our reservations, prices slid down once again,
which added another leg to the bear rally. But do take note of the ac­
celerated fashion in which this took place. Was this the dying breath of
the bearish market? Telling by the way the low of bar 8 was bought up
(long bottoming tail) plenty of bulls indeed thought it was time for some
contrarian fun. Or else there were plenty of bears cashing in on their
windfall profits in the face of the US lunch-hour "doldrums" ( 1 8:0020:00) .
In price technical terms, progression 7-8-9- 1 0- 1 1 is almost an exact
191
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks (or Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
当大多数柱状图明显超过其平均跨度时，标准保护可能不再足够。在这样的
Whenever the majority of bars visibly exceed their average span,
standard protection may no longer suffice. In such an environment,
环境中，标准止损可能在相对无害的回调中被触发。当然，如果波动条件持续
a standard stop may already get taken out in an otherwise relatively
多次会话，调整20/10区间到更宽的跨度（仅在止损方面）始终是一个选择，但
harmless
pullback. Of course, there is always the option of adjusting
我的建议是仅在波动条件持续很长时间的情况下才这样做。在单个会话中，通
the 20/ 1 0 bracket to a wider span, if only on the stop side, but my
常情况下，事情会很快“恢复正常”。
advice would be to do so only if the volatile conditions persist for many
sessions on end. Within a single session, more often than not, things
will "turn back to normal" soon enough.
The
short below bar 3 is an easy skip; it went straight up against the
在第3根柱下的空头交易很容易跳过；它直接向上突破了左侧的双底元素（1-2
double-bottom
element to the left ( 1 -2); the offer below bar 4 was of bet­
）；第4根柱下的卖盘更具优势（更多的积累），但考虑到多变的条件，这也不
ter standing (more buildup), but in the light of the fickle conditions, this
符合保守下注的要求。
did not meet the requirements of a conservative wager either.
The high of bar 5 shows an interesting test with the £lag line exten­
第5根柱的高点显示了与旗形线延伸的有趣测试，但该柱本身过于高，无法设
sion, but the bar itself was way too tall to set up a valid pattern break
置有效的模式突破回调空头。然而，市场确实继续其看跌路径，不久后甚至跌破
pullback short. Nonetheless, the market did continue its bearish path
了00水平，几乎没有反向的多头出现。
and not much later even fell through the OO-level with hardly a contrar­
ian bull in sight.
Inevitably, at some point in a bear rally bulls will come in more
不可避免地，在熊市反弹的某个时刻，牛市将会更加强劲地介入；他们在6-7
strongly; their first notable feat here was to test back the round num­
的回调中首次显著的举动是测试回调的整数关口。这里有三个原因让我认为这
ber in the 6-7 correction. Three reasons immediately come to mind
并没有形成有效的短线卖出信号：浅旗形与其悬挂的高杆（5-6）之间没有和谐
why this did not set up a valid short below combi 7: there was no har­
；短线卖出信号距离25ema较远（不利的吸引力）；未破的回调线提供了潜在的
mony
between the shallow £lag and the tall pole from which it hung
阻碍，这与技术支撑位（从6开始的三根柱形的高点）相吻合。
(5-6); the short entry was offered at quite some distance away from the
25ema (adverse magnet) ; the unbroken pullback line offered potential
obstruction that coincided with a level of technical support (highs of the
three-bar block starting at 6).
Notwithstanding our reservations, prices slid down once again,
尽管我们有保留意见，价格再次下滑，这为熊市反弹增加了另一个波段。但
which
added another leg to the bear rally. But do take note of the ac­
请注意这种下滑的加速方式。这是熊市的最后一口气吗？从第8根柱的低点被买
celerated
fashion in which this took place. Was this the dying breath of
入（长底部尾巴）来看，确实有很多牛市认为是时候进行一些逆向操作了。或者
the bearish market? Telling by the way the low of bar 8 was bought up
也可能是许多熊市在美国午餐时间的“沉寂”（18:00-20:00）中兑现了他们的丰厚利
(long bottoming tail) plenty of bulls indeed thought it was time for some
润。
contrarian fun. Or else there were plenty of bears cashing in on their
windfall profits in the face of the US lunch-hour "doldrums" ( 1 8:0020:00) .
In
price technical terms, progression 7-8-9- 1 0- 1 1 is almost an exact
在价格技术术语中，进展7-8-9-10-11几乎是一个精确的
191
Understanding Price Action
copy of the W-reversal discussed in the foregoing chart. The middle-part
section (box) was arguably even more "predictive" here, almost trum­
peting the pending completion of the right leg (note the bullish combi
starting at 1 0) .
But let us recall also the point of our previous discussion o n the
topic: when a box is broken against the dominant pressure and prices
follow through towards a trending 25ema, this generally renders the
correction unsuited for pullback reversal tactics. Hence the skips below
bar 1 2 and 1 3 ; both signal bars were of poor quality anyway.
But even without the box attached, the near-vertical correction of
the 1 0- 1 1 swing was way too aggressive in appearance to even consider
shorting against it.
While there is usually little need for the power of foresight to an­
ticipate a modest box reversal in the lows or highs of a session, it is
absolutely impossible to foretell these full-fledged turnarounds as de­
picted in the chart above ( 1 0- 15). When they show up, though, it is
crucial not to look upon them as irrational or overextended and thus
ripe for punishment. Whenever the bars start to position themselves
firmly at the other side of the average, we are technically no longer deal­
ing with a regular pullback or a flag-shaped correction of sorts; for the
action clearly tells us that the current consensus on the 5-minute has
changed in favor of the turnaround. This means that all conservative
bets in line with the earlier trend are now off.
But in most such cases, similar caution is warranted on the new
dominant side as well. Remember, when a trend is followed by a trend
in the other direction, the market is essentially traveling in a range and
this is generally not the best climate to play for substantial continua­
tion. (For an initial discussion on this concept, check Chapter 5, Figure
5. 1 7.)
The bullish acceleration in the 1 4- 1 5 swing-stemming from a failed
bearish reversal below the little horizontal line---shows another telling
example of the final burst principle. The fact that prices had run into
fat resistance of the earlier flag on the left made the situation even more
precarious for the bulls, particularly for those late to the party.
1 92
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
copy of the W-reversal discussed in the foregoing chart. The middle-part
W形反转的复制品，如前面的图表所讨论的。中间部分（框）在这里可以说更具
section (box) was arguably even more "predictive" here, almost trum­
“预测性”，几乎在预示着右腿的即将完成（注意在10处开始的看涨组合）。
peting the pending completion of the right leg (note the bullish combi
starting at 1 0) .
But let us recall also the point of our previous discussion o n the
但让我们也回忆一下我们之前讨论的要点：当一个框被打破并且价格在
topic: when a box is broken against the dominant pressure and prices
主导压力下向趋势25ema跟进时，这通常使得修正不适合用于回调反转策略
follow through towards a trending 25ema, this generally renders the
。因此，下面的12和13条信号线都被跳过；这两条信号线的质量本来就很差
correction
unsuited for pullback reversal tactics. Hence the skips below
。
bar 1 2 and 1 3 ; both signal bars were of poor quality anyway.
But even without the box attached, the near-vertical correction of
即使没有附加箱体，10-11的摆动的近乎垂直的修正在外观上也显得过于激进，
the 1 0- 1 1 swing was way too aggressive in appearance to even consider
甚至不考虑对其进行做空。
shorting against it.
While there is usually little need for the power of foresight to an­
虽然通常不需要预见的能力来预测会话的低点或高点的适度箱体反转，但绝
ticipate a modest box reversal in the lows or highs of a session, it is
对不可能预见这些如上图（10-15）所示的全面性反转。然而，当它们出现时，至
absolutely impossible to foretell these full-fledged turnarounds as de­
关重要的是不要将其视为不理性或过度扩展，因此适合惩罚。每当柱状图开始稳
picted in the chart above ( 1 0- 15). When they show up, though, it is
固地定位在平均线的另一侧时，我们在技术上就不再处理常规的回调或某种旗形
crucial not to look upon them as irrational or overextended and thus
修正；因为行动清楚地告诉我们，5分钟内当前的共识已经改变，支持反转。这
ripe for punishment. Whenever the bars start to position themselves
意味着所有与早期趋势一致的保守投注现在都不再有效。
firmly at the other side of the average, we are technically no longer deal­
ing with a regular pullback or a flag-shaped correction of sorts; for the
action clearly tells us that the current consensus on the 5-minute has
changed in favor of the turnaround. This means that all conservative
bets in line with the earlier trend are now off.
But in most such cases, similar caution is warranted on the new
但在大多数此类情况下，新主导方也应保持类似的谨慎。请记住，当一个趋势
dominant side as well. Remember, when a trend is followed by a trend
被另一个方向的趋势所跟随时，市场实际上是在区间内波动，这通常不是进行大幅
in
the other direction, the market is essentially traveling in a range and
持续交易的最佳环境。（有关此概念的初步讨论，请参见第5章，第5.17图。）
this is generally not the best climate to play for substantial continua­
tion. (For an initial discussion on this concept, check Chapter 5, Figure
5. 1 7.)
The
bullish acceleration in the 1 4- 1 5 swing-stemming from a failed
从一个失败的看跌反转下跌到小水平线的14-15波段中的看涨加速，展示了最
bearish
reversal below the little horizontal line---shows another telling
终爆发原则的另一个显著例子。价格在左侧早期旗形的强大阻力下运行，使得
example of the final burst principle. The fact that prices had run into
这种情况对多头来说更加危险，尤其是对那些晚到的参与者。
fat resistance of the earlier flag on the left made the situation even more
precarious for the bulls, particularly for those late to the party.
1 92
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
Pullback 15- 16 indeed came down pretty hard, but upon arrival in
the 25ema, the bearish counterpressure almost instantly subsided.
Still, this was not a safe place to think long again. Aside from the fact
that the market was in ranging mode, pullback 1 5- 1 6 had retraced
much too aggressively to justify a pullback reversal wager (skip the buy
offer above combi 1 7) .
A s it turned out, most o f the skipped entries i n this session would
have worked out well for 20 pip. Are we being too conservative? It really
is up to the individual to answer this. Sometimes the environment may
allow for a little more aggression, but it is no easy chore to define the
requirements that determine these special conditions.
If only for the sake of testing your personal method, reviewing indis­
putable high-odds wagers only (say, on a year's worth of intraday price
action) is by far the best way to establish a reliable take on the extent
of opportunities, and their possible outcomes, in the actual market. By
contrast, it remains to be seen how well such a test would reflect reality
if you include in your analysis a mix of borderline ventures that may or
may not have been accepted in a live-market session.
Anyway, for what it is worth, try not to fall into the classic trap of
accepting mediocre wagers for the mere sake of wanting to trade. If it
is more action you crave, rather than forcing your will upon a single
instrument, add some more markets to your screens and play their
high-odds offers only.
1 93
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
Pullback 15- 16 indeed came down pretty hard, but upon arrival in
回调15-16确实下跌得很厉害，但在到达25ema时，看跌的反压力几乎瞬间减
the 25ema, the bearish counterpressure almost instantly subsided.
弱。然而，这并不是再次考虑做多的安全位置。除了市场处于区间波动模式外
Still, this was not a safe place to think long again. Aside from the fact
，回调15-16的回撤幅度过于激进，无法证明进行回调反转的赌注（跳过在组合
that the market was in ranging mode, pullback 1 5- 1 6 had retraced
17上方的买入报价）。
much too aggressively to justify a pullback reversal wager (skip the buy
offer above combi 1 7) .
A s it turned out, most o f the skipped entries i n this session would
事实证明，这个交易时段中大多数被跳过的条目都能带来20个点的收益。我
have worked out well for 20 pip. Are we being too conservative? It really
们是否过于保守？这完全取决于个人。有时环境可能允许更大的进攻性，但要
is up to the individual to answer this. Sometimes the environment may
定义这些特殊条件的要求并非易事。
allow for a little more aggression, but it is no easy chore to define the
requirements that determine these special conditions.
If only for the sake of testing your personal method, reviewing indis­
仅仅为了测试个人方法，回顾无可争辩的高赔率投注（例如，一年的日内
putable
high-odds wagers only (say, on a year's worth of intraday price
价格走势）无疑是建立对机会及其可能结果在实际市场中程度的可靠看法的最
action) is by far the best way to establish a reliable take on the extent
佳方式。相比之下，如果在分析中包括一些可能在实时市场交易中被接受的边
of
opportunities, and their possible outcomes, in the actual market. By
缘交易，那么这样的测试在多大程度上能反映现实仍有待观察。
contrast, it remains to be seen how well such a test would reflect reality
if you include in your analysis a mix of borderline ventures that may or
may not have been accepted in a live-market session.
Anyway, for what it is worth, try not to fall into the classic trap of
无论如何，值得一提的是，尽量不要陷入接受平庸赌注的经典陷阱，仅仅是
accepting
mediocre wagers for the mere sake of wanting to trade. If it
为了想要交易。如果你渴望更多的行动，而不是强迫自己在单一工具上进行交
is
more action you crave, rather than forcing your will upon a single
易，可以在你的屏幕上添加更多市场，只玩它们的高赔率报价。
instrument, add some more markets to your screens and play their
high-odds offers only.
1 93
Understanding Price Action
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Figure 7.5 Neutrally regarded, the 5-6 maneuver shows unmistakable
supremacy on the part of the bulls. Unfortunately, there was no build­
up involved in its starting point and that leaves us to ponder on its
technical justification. This is a textbook example of what we can refer
to as a bull rally starting from a false bear low. How is this information
useful? Brisk and sharp these counter rallies can be, they make poor
continuation candidates on balance.
Before we delve into the specifics of the pullback reversal skips, let's
have a look at the foregoing action first. A quick glance tells us the UK
morning session had ranged aimlessly around the 1 .33 round number.
Above it, bears had had little trouble keeping the bullish charges in
check; below the number, bulls had shown tenacity of their own. On
no less than three consecutive occasions, they had successfully taken
their shots at the new lows of 1 , 3 and 5, proving all of them false. The
latter event then led up to the wild bullish upswing 5-6, which appeared
totally uncontested.
More often than not, the general consensus on these "moves-out-of­
nowhere" is one of suspicion rather than trust and this tends to have a
restraining impact on the continuation potential, even after a substan­
tial correction has been put in (6-7) .
This pullback had retraced about 50 percent of the bull rally, and
while doing so had found support in the highs of the morning session
range (level of 4). How does this differ from a valid pullback reversal
candidate?
When aiming for a bull-side reversal, it is always a plus to see a for-
194
1 .335
- 1 .33
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
I图
Fig7.57 .51
www.ProReamme.com
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Figure
7.5 Neutrally
regarded, the 5-6 maneuver shows unmistakable
图 7.5 中立地看，5-6
操作显示出牛市无可否认的优势。不幸的是，它的起点没
supremacy on the part of the bulls. Unfortunately, there was no build­
有任何积累，这让我们不得不思考它的技术依据。这是一个教科书式的例子，
up
involved in its starting point and that leaves us to ponder on its
我们可以称之为从虚假的熊市低点开始的牛市反弹。这些信息有什么用呢？这
technical justification. This is a textbook example of what we can refer
些反弹可以是迅速而猛烈的，但从整体上看，它们是糟糕的延续候选者。
to as a bull rally starting from a false bear low. How is this information
useful? Brisk and sharp these counter rallies can be, they make poor
continuation candidates on balance.
Before we delve into the specifics of the pullback reversal skips, let's
在我们深入探讨回调反转跳过的具体情况之前，先来看看前面的走势。快速
have
a look at the foregoing action
A quick glance tells us the UK
浏览一下可以告诉我们，英国早盘在
1.33first.
的整数关口附近徘徊不定。在这个数
morning
session had ranged aimlessly around the 1 .33 round number.
字之上，熊市几乎没有麻烦地抑制住了牛市的冲击；在这个数字之下，牛市也
Above it, bears had had little trouble keeping the bullish
展现出了自己的韧性。在连续三次的情况下，他们成功地对
1、3 和 5charges
的新低进in
check; below the number, bulls had shown tenacity
of their own. On
行了攻击，证明它们都是虚假的。最后一个事件导致了
5-6 的狂野牛市上涨，似
no
less than three consecutive occasions, they had successfully taken
乎完全没有受到阻碍。
their shots at the new lows of 1 , 3 and 5, proving all of them false. The
latter event then led up to the wild bullish upswing 5-6, which appeared
totally uncontested.
More often than not, the general consensus on these "moves-out-of­
通常情况下，对于这些“突如其来的动作”的普遍共识是怀疑而非信任，这往往
nowhere" is one of suspicion rather than trust and this tends to have a
对后续的潜力产生制约影响，即使在经历了大幅修正之后也是如此（6-7）。
restraining impact on the continuation potential, even after a substan­
tial correction has been put in (6-7) .
This
pullback had retraced about 50 percent of the bull rally, and
这次回调已经回撤了大约50%的牛市反弹，并且在此过程中找到了早盘区间高
while doing so had found support in the highs of the morning session
点的支撑（4的水平）。这与有效的回调反转候选有什么不同？
range (level of 4). How does this differ from a valid pullback reversal
candidate?
194
1 .335
When aiming for a bull-side reversal, it is always a plus to see a for在追求牛市反转时，看到一个
- 1 .33
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
mer level of resistance act as support in favor of the turn. However, the
reliability of technical backup is generally the highest when this sup­
portive element resides directly to the left of the pullback. For a bearish
example of such "directness", check how the high of bar 2 had run into
resistance of a fat cluster of bars not far to the left; at least theoretically,
that bear block provided dependable resistance (technical test) .
As is plain to see, things were different in the situation on the far
right. With the 5-6 maneuver being so straight and not showing any
bearish hiccups on the way up, the first support for the pullback to
touch upon was the high of the earlier range at the level of 4, "way out"
to the left. Perhaps for want of a better alternative, prices did manage
to find some footing in this level, but this did not mitigate the issue of
the poor conditions on the whole. Technically seen, the first depend­
able support in sight-and thus an adverse magnet-resided all the way
down at the OO-level: a "ceiling" test with the floor in the 4-5-6 arch.
In summary, the conservative take on a situation like this would
be to decline both the pullback reversal offer in bar 8 and the pattern
break pullback entry in bar 9. The latter was of better quality (second
break showed bullish persistence) , but still not solid enough to alleviate
the concerns regarding the shady conditions.
Note: This is not to suggest that a lack of direct support should make
us skip all pullback reversais by default. But for any such wager to earn
passage, at least the entry conditions should be optimal. To understand
this distinction, let us briefly recall our discussion concerning Figure
6.6 in Chapter 6. Similar reservations were uttered in regard to the
continuation prospects of a foregoing rally, but when we took a closer
look at the reversal setup itself (the 1 2- 1 3 situation) , we did come to ap­
preciate the conditions regarding the entry. Were such circumstances
present in our current chart?
Considering the feeble support underneath both entries, and the
potential for obstruction above them (round number contrarians lying
in wait) , the prospects for continuation here were not nearly as promis­
ing. Perhaps an optimistic bull could argue that the round number now
stood to work as a magnet, if only to get the trade going; fair enough,
but let us not underestimate the danger for obstruction within that very
195
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
mer level of resistance act as support in favor of the turn. However, the
阻力水平的市场行为在转折时充当支撑。然而，技术支撑的可靠性通常在这个
reliability of technical backup is generally the highest when this sup­
支撑元素直接位于回调的左侧时是最高的。作为一个看跌的例子，检查一下第
portive
element resides directly to the left of the pullback. For a bearish
2根柱子的高点是如何与左侧不远处的一大堆柱子的阻力相遇的；至少在理论
example of such "directness", check how the high of bar 2 had run into
上，这个看跌区块提供了可靠的阻力（技术测试）。
resistance of a fat cluster of bars not far to the left; at least theoretically,
that bear block provided dependable resistance (technical test) .
As is plain to see, things were different in the situation on the far
显而易见，右侧的情况有所不同。由于5-6的操作非常直接，并且在上升过程
right.
With the 5-6 maneuver being so straight and not showing any
中没有显示出任何看跌的波动，回调触及的第一个支撑是早期区间的高点，位
bearish
hiccups on the way up, the first support for the pullback to
于4的水平上，"远在"左侧。或许由于缺乏更好的选择，价格确实在这个水平上
touch upon was the high of the earlier range at the level of 4, "way out"
找到了立足点，但这并没有减轻整体条件不佳的问题。从技术上看，视野中第
一个可靠的支撑——因此也是一个不利的磁铁——位于00水平：一个“天花板”
to the left. Perhaps for want of a better alternative, prices did manage
to find some footing in this level, but this did not mitigate the issue of
测试，地板在4-5-6的弧形中。
the poor conditions on the whole. Technically seen, the first depend­
able support in sight-and thus an adverse magnet-resided all the way
down at the OO-level: a "ceiling" test with the floor in the 4-5-6 arch.
In summary, the conservative take on a situation like this would
总之，保守的看法是拒绝在第8根柱子中的回调反转提议和第9根柱子中的
be
to decline both the pullback reversal offer in bar 8 and the pattern
模式突破回调入场。后者的质量更好（第二次突破显示出看涨的持续性），
break
pullback entry in bar 9. The latter was of better quality (second
但仍然不足以缓解对阴暗条件的担忧。
break showed bullish persistence) , but still not solid enough to alleviate
the concerns regarding the shady conditions.
Note: This is not to suggest that a lack of direct support should make
注意：这并不是说缺乏直接支持就应该让我们默认跳过所有的回调反转。但
us
skip all pullback reversais by default. But for any such wager to earn
为了使任何这样的赌注获得通过，至少入场条件应该是最佳的。为了理解这一
passage, at least the entry conditions should be optimal. To understand
区别，让我们简要回顾一下我们在第6章中关于图6.6的讨论。关于前期反弹的持
this
distinction, let us briefly recall our discussion concerning Figure
续前景也曾表达过类似的保留意见，但当我们更仔细地观察反转设置本身（12-1
6.6 in Chapter 6. Similar reservations were uttered in regard to the
3的情况）时，我们确实开始欣赏入场条件。在我们当前的图表中是否存在这样
continuation
prospects of a foregoing rally, but when we took a closer
的情况？
look at the reversal setup itself (the 1 2- 1 3 situation) , we did come to ap­
preciate the conditions regarding the entry. Were such circumstances
present in our current chart?
Considering the feeble support underneath both entries, and the
考虑到这两个入场点下方薄弱的支撑，以及上方潜在的阻碍（伺机而动的
potential
for obstruction above them (round number contrarians lying
整数关口逆向者），这里延续上涨的前景并不乐观。或许乐观的牛市可以辩称
in wait) , the prospects for continuation here were not nearly as promis­
，整数关口现在可以像磁铁一样发挥作用，哪怕只是为了启动交易；这话说得
ing.
Perhaps an optimistic bull could argue that the round number now
没错，但我们不要低估该磁铁内部的阻碍危险（反弹效应），尤其是在非技术
stood to work as a magnet, if only to get the trade going; fair enough,
性牛市的背景下。
but let us not underestimate the danger for obstruction within that very
195
Understanding Price Action
same magnet (bounce effect), particularly in the light of the nontechni­
cal bull run.
Regardless of the actual outcome, the point here is that if you do
decide to take your chances on a borderline trade, it will pay to at least
have the entry conditions unmistakably on your side. This may not
necessarily get your trade to target, but it might give you a better shot at
exiting with minimal damage should the trade at some point need to be
scratched (possible reversal exit versus a quick shake after entry). Just
something to take into account.
IFig 7.61
WfifW.ProRe;lTime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
8
9
1 .315
Figure 7.6 In our discussions on the pattern break combi setup in Chap­
ter 5, we already took up the entry specifics on the first trade, the short
below combi 1 (Figure 5. 1 1 ) . This chart shows the follow-up action dur­
ing the UK morning session.
After a stale Asian market, it is not uncommon for the action to
immediately pick up pace in the EU Open at 08:00. It is the more pow­
erful UK Open at 09:00 , however, that tends to have the biggest say in
the nature of the coming session. How many times have we not seen
a powerful breakout in the first few bars of this hour. But when there
is already a trend in place, either still standing from the Asian hours
or freshly started in the EU Open, as was the case above, the first UK
traders are usually not so keen on immediately following up on the cur­
rent pressure. Sooner we will see a sideways correction of sorts, if not a
rebellious counterattack. Of course, these are just general observations
to keep a trader sharp; they should never compete with what the price
action itself is saying.
1 96
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
尤其是在非技术性的牛市行情下，这种磁铁效应内部的阻碍危险（反弹效应）更不
same magnet (bounce effect), particularly in the light of the nontechni­
cal bull run.
容小觑。
Regardless of the actual outcome, the point here is that if you do
无论实际结果如何，这里的重点是，如果你决定冒险进行一笔边缘交易，至
decide to take your chances on a borderline trade, it will pay to at least
少要确保入场条件对你有利。这可能不一定能让你的交易达到目标，但如果交
have the entry conditions unmistakably on your side. This may not
易在某个时候需要止损（可能出现反转退出，而不是入场后迅速震荡），它可
necessarily get your trade to target, but it might give you a better shot at
能会让你有更好的机会以最小的损失退出。请务必考虑这一点。
exiting with minimal damage should the trade at some point need to be
scratched (possible reversal exit versus a quick shake after entry). Just
something to take into account.
7.61
图 7.6
IFig
WfifW.ProRe;lTime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
欧元/美元
5 分钟
8
9
1 .315
Figure
7.6 In our discussions on the pattern break combi setup in Chap­
图
7.6 在我们对第5章中模式突破组合设置的讨论中，我们已经讨论了第一次交
ter
5, we already took up the entry specifics on the first trade, the short
易的入场细节，即短期组合1（图5.11）。这张图表显示了在英国早盘期间的后续
below
行动。 combi 1 (Figure 5. 1 1 ) . This chart shows the follow-up action dur­
ing the UK morning session.
After a stale Asian market, it is not uncommon for the action to
在亚洲市场疲软之后，欧盟开放时（08:00）行动立即加速并不罕见。然而，
immediately pick up pace in the EU Open at 08:00. It is the more pow­
更强劲的英国开放（09:00）往往对接下来的交易时段产生最大的影响。我们有
erful UK Open at 09:00 , however, that tends to have the biggest say in
多少次没有在这个小时的前几根K线中看到强劲的突破呢？但是当已经有一个趋
the nature of the coming session. How many times have we not seen
势在运行时，无论是仍然存在于亚洲时段，还是在欧盟开放时刚刚开始，如上
a
powerful breakout in the first few bars of this hour. But when there
所述，第一批英国交易者通常不太愿意立即跟进当前的压力。我们很快会看到
is
already a trend in place, either still standing from the Asian hours
某种横盘修正，甚至是反叛的反击。当然，这些只是一些一般性的观察，以保
or freshly started in the EU Open, as was the case above, the first UK
持交易者的敏锐；它们绝不应与价格行为本身所传达的信息相竞争。
traders are usually not so keen on immediately following up on the cur­
rent pressure. Sooner we will see a sideways correction of sorts, if not a
rebellious counterattack. Of course, these are just general observations
to keep a trader sharp; they should never compete with what the price
action itself is saying.
1 96
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
In this session, the UK Open didn't put up much of a fight; after a
brief bout of bullish opposition, the dominant bears were allowed to
march on to their OO-level magnet (2). But as soon as prices hit upon
that number, the climate definitely changed.
From around 09:30 to 1 0:30 there appeared an interesting sequence
of bars that can be regarded as a W-middle-part variant. (To better il­
lustrate its blocky features, the low of 2 was excluded from the box.)
Even though this pattern showed up bearishly below a downtrending
25ema, within it there were quite a few bars that had managed to close
well away from their lows. Was the market bracing itself for a bullish
reversal?
In all fairness, when such a reversal block shows up as part of a first
decent correction in a newly established trend, the chances for a sub­
stantial break against the dominant pressure are usually not that good.
But this may not stop parties from trying, though.
Before things turned sour on them, bulls will have liked the way
their box break came about. It wasn't hard to find a valid top barrier
to play long above, and the combi setup, too, looked playable in all re­
spects (3). In a bullish environment, a box break like this may very well
have called for an entry on the buy side. In this bearish chart, however,
the situation harbored all the ingredients of a trap.
For future purposes, examine closely the way this bull break failed
and how it was followed by a bear break in the opposite direction (trade­
for-failure setup). Variations on this theme are practically endless but
they usually share some common characteristics. Arguably the most
noticeable feature is that the breakout often takes place on a first touch
with the average since the start of the dominant swing. Another element
of interest is the "otherwise attractive" reversal pattern, which basically
adds to the trap. And should prices indeed fail to follow through on the
breakout, very common also is to see a strong reversal bar set up a
trade-for-failure break in the other direction (4) .
Do notice that the short entry here was presented below the top of
the box, meaning this bear break provided a technical confirmation of
the bull break failure. (Check Figure 7. 1 for the initial discussions on
this topic.) Very pleasant also was to have this break coincide with the
197
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
In this session, the UK Open didn't put up much of a fight; after a
在本次会议中，英国公开赛并没有表现出太多抵抗；经过一段简短的看涨
brief bout of bullish opposition, the dominant bears were allowed to
反对后，主导的空头被允许继续向他们的00级磁铁（2）进发。但当价格触及
march on to their OO-level magnet (2). But as soon as prices hit upon
该数字时，气候确实发生了变化。
that number, the climate definitely changed.
从09:30到10:30，出现了一系列有趣的K线，可以视为W中间部分变体。（为了
From around 09:30 to 1 0:30 there appeared an interesting sequence
of bars that can be regarded as a W-middle-part variant. (To better il­
更好地说明其块状特征，2的低点被排除在箱体之外。）尽管这个模式在下行趋
lustrate its blocky features, the low of 2 was excluded from the box.)
势的25ema下方出现看跌信号，但其中有不少K线成功地远离其低点收盘。市场是
Even though this pattern showed up bearishly below a downtrending
否在为看涨反转做准备？
25ema, within it there were quite a few bars that had managed to close
well away from their lows. Was the market bracing itself for a bullish
reversal?
In
all fairness, when such a reversal block shows up as part of a first
公平地说，当这样的反转区块作为新建立趋势中的第一次合理修正出现时
decent correction in a newly established trend, the chances for a sub­
，反对主导压力的实质性突破的机会通常并不太好。但这可能并不会阻止各方
stantial break against the dominant pressure are usually not that good.
的尝试。
But this may not stop parties from trying, though.
Before things turned sour on them, bulls will have liked the way
在事情变得糟糕之前，多头会喜欢他们的箱体突破是如何形成的。很容易找
their box break came about. It wasn't hard to find a valid top barrier
到一个有效的顶部阻力位来进行多头操作，而组合设置在各方面看起来也很可
to play long above, and the combi setup, too, looked playable in all re­
行（3）。在一个看涨的环境中，这样的箱体突破可能确实会呼唤一个买入的机
spects (3). In a bullish environment, a box break like this may very well
会。然而，在这个看跌的图表中，情况却蕴含了所有的陷阱成分。
have called for an entry on the buy side. In this bearish chart, however,
the situation harbored all the ingredients of a trap.
For future purposes, examine closely the way this bull break failed
为了未来的考虑，仔细观察这个多头突破是如何失败的，以及它是如何被随
and how it was followed by a bear break in the opposite direction (trade­
后的看跌突破所取代的（失败交易设置）。这种主题的变体几乎是无穷无尽的
for-failure setup). Variations on this theme are practically endless but
，但它们通常共享一些共同特征。可以说，最显著的特征是突破通常发生在自
they usually share some common characteristics. Arguably the most
主导性波动开始以来的第一次触及均线时。另一个值得关注的元素是“其他吸引
noticeable feature is that the breakout often takes place on a first touch
人的”反转模式，这基本上增加了陷阱的可能性。如果价格确实未能在突破后继
with the average since the start of the dominant swing. Another element
续上涨，通常也会看到一个强烈的反转柱形成在另一个方向的失败交易突破（4
of interest is the "otherwise attractive" reversal pattern, which basically
）。
adds to the trap. And should prices indeed fail to follow through on the
breakout, very common also is to see a strong reversal bar set up a
trade-for-failure break in the other direction (4) .
Do notice that the short entry here was presented below the top of
请注意，这里的短期入场点位于箱体顶部下方，这意味着这个熊市突破提供
the box, meaning this bear break provided a technical confirmation of
了牛市突破失败的技术确认。（请查看图7.1以获取关于此主题的初步讨论。）
the
bull break failure. (Check Figure 7. 1 for the initial discussions on
同时，这个突破与
this topic.) Very pleasant also was to have this break coincide with the
197
Understanding Price Action
perforation of an angular pullback line. As previously argued, blocky
clusters that can still be framed by an angular line on the right are
generally easier to cut through than are the square blocks that lack this
favorable element. We could say that the angular versions look more
like flag variants and therefore may sooner be regarded as continuation
patterns. Taking all these bearish elements into account, we can safely
state that the offer below bar 4 was a trade-for-failure wager of the high­
odds category.
Not much later, pullback 5-6 had retraced about 60 percent of the
foregoing swing 4-5. In the highs of this correction, prices had hit upon
the trending 2 5ema and even pierced it a little before a turnaround bar
showed up (6) . With the market still in bearish mode, why is the pull­
back reversal below bar 6 annotated as a skip?
Several reasons come to mind. First off, the pullback, though decent
in height, showed only one reversal bar in its top (6). While it is not
uncommon for prices break away from a single turnaround bar in the
average, the most reliable reversals tend to stem from a bit more pulling
and pushing in the turn, especially when the pullback in question is not
the first to defy the trend.
But there were more warning signs to consider. For example, had
we run a pattern line beneath the lows of this pullback, it would not
have been broken yet at the break of bar 6. Also, there was an adverse
magnet on the lurk: the ceiling test with the low of bar 4 from where
the earlier trade-for-failure break had taken off (not a major drawback,
but potent enough to take into account). And lastly, in creating the 5-6
correction, bulls had broken back through the OO-level with a powerbar
that had sprung from a little box progression; all very good reasons to
be highly cautious on the sell side.
As it turned out, the market never even bothered to put in a test
with that box; instead, bulls set out to establish a massive bull run that
would completely destroy the earlier bearish dominance (5-8).
As taken up in previous discussions, a counterrally that fully defies
the earlier dominant pressure is best not seen as a new trend. This is
not to say that we shouldn't acknowledge the authority displayed, but
these brutal surges seldom set up for continuation. And even more cau-
1 98
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
perforation of an angular pullback line. As previously argued, blocky
一个角度回调线的穿透相吻合，这一点也非常令人愉快。正如之前所论述的，仍
clusters that can still be framed by an angular line on the right are
然可以用右侧的角度线框定的块状集群，通常比缺乏这一有利元素的方形块更容
generally easier to cut through than are the square blocks that lack this
易突破。我们可以说，角度版本更像是旗形变体，因此可能更早被视为持续模式
favorable element. We could say that the angular versions look more
。考虑到所有这些看跌因素，我们可以安全地说，位于第4根柱子下方的卖盘是高
like flag variants and therefore may sooner be regarded as continuation
赔率类别的失败交易赌注。
patterns. Taking all these bearish elements into account, we can safely
state that the offer below bar 4 was a trade-for-failure wager of the high­
odds category.
Not much later, pullback 5-6 had retraced about 60 percent of the
不久之后，回调5-6已经回撤了前一个波段4-5的约60%。在这次修正的高点，
foregoing
swing 4-5. In the highs of this correction, prices had hit upon
价格触及了趋势25ema，甚至稍微穿透了它，然后出现了一个反转柱（6）。在
the
trending 2 5ema and even pierced it a little before a turnaround bar
市场仍处于看跌模式的情况下，为什么在第6根柱子下方的回调反转被标注为跳
showed up (6) . With the market still in bearish mode, why is the pull­
过？
back reversal below bar 6 annotated as a skip?
Several reasons come to mind. First off, the pullback, though decent
几个原因浮现在脑海中。首先，尽管回调的高度相当可观，但在其顶部仅显
in
height, showed only one reversal bar in its top (6). While it is not
示了一个反转柱（6）。虽然价格从单一的转向柱突破并不罕见，但最可靠的反
uncommon
for prices break away from a single turnaround bar in the
转往往源于在转向时更多的拉锯，尤其是当所讨论的回调并不是第一次违背趋
average,
the
most reliable reversals tend to stem from a bit more pulling
势时。
and pushing in the turn, especially when the pullback in question is not
the first to defy the trend.
But
there were more warning signs to consider. For example, had
但还有更多的警告信号需要考虑。例如，如果我们在这次回调的低点下画一
we run a pattern line beneath the lows of this pullback, it would not
条模式线，那么在柱6突破时，它并没有被打破。此外，还有一个不利的磁力在
have been broken yet at the break of bar 6. Also, there was an adverse
潜伏：与柱4的低点进行的天花板测试，从那里早期的失败交易突破开始（这不
magnet on the lurk: the ceiling test with the low of bar 4 from where
是一个主要的缺陷，但足够强大以值得考虑）。最后，在创建5-6修正时，牛市
the
earlier trade-for-failure break had taken off (not a major drawback,
已经通过一个从小箱体进展中弹出的强势柱突破了00水平；所有这些都是在卖
but
potent enough to take into account). And lastly, in creating the 5-6
方上保持高度谨慎的非常好的理由。
correction, bulls had broken back through the OO-level with a powerbar
that had sprung from a little box progression; all very good reasons to
be highly cautious on the sell side.
As it turned out, the market never even bothered to put in a test
结果表明，市场甚至懒得对那个区间进行测试；相反，多头开始建立大规模的
with
that box; instead, bulls set out to establish a massive bull run that
牛市行情，这将彻底摧毁早期的熊市主导地位（5-8）。
would completely destroy the earlier bearish dominance (5-8).
As taken up in previous discussions, a counterrally that fully defies
正如之前的讨论中所提到的，完全无视早期主导压力的反弹最好不要被视
the
earlier dominant pressure is best not seen as a new trend. This is
为新的趋势。这并不是说我们不应该承认所显示的力量，但这些猛烈的上涨很
not
to say that we shouldn't acknowledge the authority displayed, but
少能为延续做好准备。而且，当这样的走势从几乎没有积累的假突破事件开始
these brutal surges seldom set up for continuation. And even more cau时，更需要谨慎（5）。
1 98
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
tion is warranted when such a move starts out from a false break event
with little buildup (5). With no technical justification to back up the
market's sudden change of heart, consensus on future direction stands
to be highly divided. This may not stop the rally itself from marching on
(initial shock-effect can be very strong) , but as soon as the first signs
of exhaustion come forth, countercharges can be equally brutal. Bar 9
is a telling example of what can happen when a market "comes back to
its senses".
Despite the ominous features of bar 9, which had turned the 7-8-9
sequence in an M-pattern reversal candidate, prices held up very well in
the 50-level and the average, the latter now trending nicely up. In fact,
the blocky features of the 1 0- 1 1 buildup show us that bull parties had
responded with a middle-part of their own (of a W-pattern). Moreover,
with the pullback line drawn as depicted (ignoring the topping tail of bar
9) , the 8- 1 1 price action now harbored all the ingredients of a bull-flag
ready to pop.
It is therefore important to grasp the rationale behind declining the
pattern break pullback offer above bar 1 1 . In other circumstances-or
should we say, in a bull trend-perhaps this breakout may have been
worth a shot. But here the event set up in the higher region of a range,
and after a nontechnical turnaround to boot (5-8).
Interesting also is to compare the entry conditions on the break
above bar 1 1 with those of the earlier shorts, below combi 1 and bar
4. On the shorts, the round number magnets worked in favor of the
breakout and lay pleasantly in line with the dominant pressure. On the
long entry above bar 1 1 , offered at about 7 pip above the round number,
the magnet effect stood to work the other way around, to the possible
detriment of the stop. To top it off, the break above 1 1 was presented
in the lunch-hour doldrums ( 1 2 :00- 14:00) following a mega bull run in
the morning session. That generally doesn't sit well with continuation
either. Conditions, conditions, conditions.
1 99
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
tion
is warranted when such a move starts out from a false break event
由于没有技术理由来支持市场突然改变主意，因此对未来方向的共识势必会高度分
with little buildup (5). With no technical justification to back up the
歧。这可能不会阻止反弹本身继续前进（最初的冲击效应可能非常强烈），但一旦
market's sudden change of heart, consensus
on future direction stands
出现最初的疲惫迹象，反击也可能同样残酷。Bar
9 是一个说明当市场“恢复理智”时
to be highly divided. This may not stop the rally itself from marching on
会发生什么的典型例子。
(initial shock-effect can be very strong) , but as soon as the first signs
of exhaustion come forth, countercharges can be equally brutal. Bar 9
is a telling example of what can happen when a market "comes back to
its senses".
Despite the ominous features of bar 9, which had turned the 7-8-9
尽管第9条的阴郁特征使得7-8-9序列成为M形反转候选，但价格在50水平和平
sequence in an M-pattern reversal candidate, prices held up very well in
均线附近表现得非常好，后者现在趋势向上。事实上，10-11的块状特征显示出
the 50-level and the average, the latter now trending nicely up. In fact,
多头在其中部形成了自己的W形模式。此外，按照所示的方式绘制回调线（忽
the blocky features of the 1 0- 1 1 buildup show us that bull parties had
略第9条的顶部影线），8-11的价格走势现在具备了一个即将爆发的多头旗形的
responded with a middle-part of their own (of a W-pattern). Moreover,
所有要素。
with the pullback line drawn as depicted (ignoring the topping tail of bar
9) , the 8- 1 1 price action now harbored all the ingredients of a bull-flag
ready to pop.
It is therefore important to grasp the rationale behind declining the
因此，理解拒绝在第11条上方的模式突破回调机会的理由是非常重要的。在
pattern break pullback offer above bar 1 1 . In other circumstances-or
其他情况下——或者我们可以说，在牛市趋势中——也许这个突破值得一试。但
should
we say, in a bull trend-perhaps this breakout may have been
在这里，事件发生在区间的高位，并且在非技术性反转之后（5-8）。
worth a shot. But here the event set up in the higher region of a range,
and after a nontechnical turnaround to boot (5-8).
Interesting also is to compare the entry conditions on the break
有趣的是，将第11根突破柱的入场条件与早期的空头进行比较，尤其是低于
above bar 1 1 with those of the earlier shorts, below combi 1 and bar
组合1和第4根柱的条件。在空头交易中，整数关口的吸引力有利于突破，并且与
4. On the shorts, the round number magnets worked in favor of the
主导压力相符。而在第11根柱上方的多头入场，约在整数关口上方7个点，吸引
breakout and lay pleasantly in line with the dominant pressure. On the
力的效果则可能相反，可能对止损造成不利影响。更糟糕的是，第11根柱的突破
long entry above bar 1 1 , offered at about 7 pip above the round number,
发生在午餐时间的低迷期（12:00-14:00），而在早盘经历了一次巨大的牛市。这
the magnet effect stood to work the other way around, to the possible
种情况通常不利于继续上涨。条件，条件，条件。
detriment of the stop. To top it off, the break above 1 1 was presented
in the lunch-hour doldrums ( 1 2 :00- 14:00) following a mega bull run in
the morning session. That generally doesn't sit well with continuation
either. Conditions, conditions, conditions.
1 99
Understanding Price Aaion
IFig 7 .71
www.P,oRealTime.com
eu,/usd 5-minute
11
�pattem
@)ProReaITme.eom
23:00
tJ\zvy
W
30
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Figure 7.7 Asian sessions (00:00-08:00) can be awfully stale on the eur/
usd pair, but they do tend to behave quite orderly and if they are kind
enough to offer a valid setup, if only just one in the early hours, not
seldom it is relatively easy to spot.
In the very thin volume prior to the Asian Open, prices were already
on their way to the OO-level magnet ( 1 -2), but then bulls had responded
with a classic middle-part block (2- 3 ) . Note the tricky false low in bar 3
before the pressure spun around in powerbar fashion (bear-flag failure) .
Had we been in bearish position, the break above bar 3 may have called
for a reversal exit. Pretty standard stuff.
This chart is selected to explore a very potent chart pattern of which
there are many variations, both in length and width. It concerns progres­
sion 4 through 1 0 ; the box part in particular is worthy of remembrance.
We can refer to this type of price action as a Ww-pattem, in which the
bigger Wrepresents a double-bottom base, and the smaller w a squeeze
that sets up the future breakout. Like all patterns, this one has a bear­
ish counterpart, the Mm-pattem.
In favorable conditions, Ww and Mm-pattern breakouts are among
the most potent of follow-through generators, arguably even more pow­
erful than their popular close cousins, the cup-and-handle formations
(Vv and Nn). Breakout traders are well advised to get themselves ac­
quainted with the way these progressions come about.
In a textbook Ww-pattern box, the top side is formed by the high of
the big Ws middle-part (6) , a level that is then repeatedly matched as
the pattern progresses over time. Naturally, the less debatable this top
200
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
Fig 7 .71
I图7.7
www.P,oRealTime.com
欧元/美元
5 分钟
eu,/usd 5-minute
11
�pattem
@)ProReaITme.eom
23:00
tJ\zvy
W
30
01:00
02:00
03:00
04:00
05:00
Figure
7.7 Asian sessions (00:00-08:00) can be awfully stale on the eur/
图7.7
亚洲时段（00:00-08:00）在欧元/美元交易对上可能会显得相当乏味，但它
usd
pair, but they do tend to behave quite orderly and if they are kind
们往往表现得相当有序，如果它们能够提供一个有效的交易机会，哪怕只是早
enough to offer a valid setup, if only just one in the early hours, not
晨的一个机会，通常也相对容易发现。
seldom it is relatively easy to spot.
In the very thin volume prior to the Asian Open, prices were already
在亚洲开盘前的这本薄薄的书中，价格已经在朝着00水平的磁铁（1-2）移
on their way to the OO-level magnet ( 1 -2), but then bulls had responded
动，但随后多头以经典的中间部分区块（2-3）作出了反应。注意在第3根柱子
with a classic middle-part block (2- 3 ) . Note the tricky false low in bar 3
中的虚假低点，在压力以强势柱的方式（熊旗失败）旋转之前。如果我们处于
before
the pressure spun around in powerbar fashion (bear-flag failure) .
看跌位置，第3根柱子上方的突破可能会要求反转退出。这是相当标准的内容
Had
。 we been in bearish position, the break above bar 3 may have called
for a reversal exit. Pretty standard stuff.
This
chart is selected to explore a very potent chart pattern of which
这张图表被选中以探讨一种非常强大的图表模式，这种模式有许多变体，无
there are many variations, both in length and width. It concerns progres­
论是在长度还是宽度上。它涉及到第4到第10的进程；特别是箱体部分值得记住
sion 4 through 1 0 ; the box part in particular is worthy of remembrance.
。我们可以将这种价格行为称为Ww模式，其中较大的W代表双底基础，而较小
We can refer to this type of price action as a Ww-pattem, in which the
的wa则是设置未来突破的挤压。像所有模式一样，这种模式也有一个看跌的对应
bigger Wrepresents a double-bottom base, and the smaller w a squeeze
模式，称为Mm模式。
that sets up the future breakout. Like all patterns, this one has a bear­
ish counterpart, the Mm-pattem.
In favorable conditions, Ww and Mm-pattern breakouts are among
在有利条件下，Ww和Mm模式的突破是最强大的跟随生成器之一，甚至可以
the most potent of follow-through generators, arguably even more pow­
说比它们的流行近亲杯柄形态（Vv和Nn）更强大。突破交易者最好熟悉这些进程
erful than their popular close cousins, the cup-and-handle formations
是如何发生的。
(Vv and Nn). Breakout traders are well advised to get themselves ac­
quainted with the way these progressions come about.
In a textbook Ww-pattern box, the top side is formed by the high of
在教科书式的Ww模式框中，顶部由大W的中间部分（6）的高点形成，随
the
big Ws middle-part (6) , a level that is then repeatedly matched as
着模式随时间的推移，这一水平会被反复匹配。自然，越不具争议性的顶
the pattern progresses over time. Naturally, the less debatable this top
部障碍越能在稍后的突破中获得更多共识。
200
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
barrier can be drawn, the more consensus on its break later on. At the
other side of the pattern, a double bottom is likely to show (5-7), but
the exact features here are not so relevant since we do not anticipate a
break at this end. While the big W -element already hints at the market's
bullish intentions, a mere break of the middle-part section may not be
the place to hop on board with a tight stop. As always, for participa­
tion to be granted, we need to see some buildup first. This is where the
smaller w comes in.
If we track the up/down motion of the 8-9-T - 1 O progression, we can
see some bullish and bearish bars switching position, as in a regular
squeeze. Very common also in this kind of buildup is a failedfirst break­
out, generally referred to as a tease (T) .
In any pattern break situation there are essentially two ways for a
tease break scenario to set up. Either the breakout originates from a
level "too deep" within the pattern, or the event does take place from
a squeeze situation at the barrier, but the buildup appears too thin to
meet the requirements of proper tension. The former situation is ad­
dressed in Chapter 2 in the section on "False Breaks, Tease Breaks and
Proper Breaks"; along the way, we have already seen a number of such
examples, the majority of which not too hard to dodge. Thin buildup,
on the other hand, may cause a little more confusion, because the price
action does show tension prior to the breakout but too little of it. But
what is enough and what is too little?
To answer this in regard to a Ww-pattern, let us briefly recall the
concept of harmony within the flag and flagpole relation. In some exam­
ples on the topic, we came to appreciate the guiding hand of proportion,
whether it was to warrant action on a break, or to postpone it. Similar
forces are often at work within the Ww-pattern (as in its Mm-counter­
part). In a simplified way, we could say that the small w is essentially a
flag hanging from big Ws right leg. Therefore, the Ww-breakout is best
acted on when both elements (W and w) relate proportionally to one an­
other. For example, if the vertical span of a big W is relatively wide, the
smaller w should not be too compressed either. That would look rather
"non-harmonious" and may not provide sufficient tension for prices to
pop. Should the big W be rather stretched out, horizontally, then the
201
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
barrier can be drawn, the more consensus on its break later on. At the
在模式的另一侧，可能会出现双底（5-7），但这里的确切特征并不那么相关，因
other side of the pattern, a double bottom is likely to show (5-7), but
为我们不预期在这一端会发生突破。虽然大W元素已经暗示了市场的看涨意图，
the exact features here are not so relevant since we do not anticipate a
但仅仅突破中间部分可能并不是一个合适的时机来以紧密止损入场。像往常一样
break
at this end. While the big W -element already hints at the market's
，要获得参与资格，我们需要先看到一些积累。这就是小w的作用所在。
bullish intentions, a mere break of the middle-part section may not be
the place to hop on board with a tight stop. As always, for participa­
tion to be granted, we need to see some buildup first. This is where the
smaller w comes in.
If we track the up/down motion of the 8-9-T - 1 O progression, we can
如果我们跟踪8-9-T-10进程的上下运动，我们可以看到一些看涨和看跌的
see some bullish and bearish bars switching position, as in a regular
柱状图在位置上切换，就像在一个常规的挤压中一样。在这种类型的积累中
squeeze. Very common also in this kind of buildup is a failedfirst break­
，第一次突破失败的情况也很常见，通常被称为诱惑（T）。
out, generally referred to as a tease (T) .
In any pattern break situation there are essentially two ways for a
在任何模式突破的情况下，诱惑突破场景的设置基本上有两种方式。要么突
tease
break scenario to set up. Either the breakout originates from a
破源自模式内“过深”的水平，要么事件确实是在障碍处的挤压情况下发生，但
level
"too deep" within the pattern, or the event does take place from
积累似乎太薄，无法满足适当张力的要求。前一种情况在第二章的“虚假突破、
a
squeeze situation at the barrier, but the buildup appears too thin to
诱惑突破和适当突破”部分中进行了讨论；在此过程中，我们已经看到了一些这
meet
the requirements of proper tension. The former situation is ad­
样的例子，其中大多数并不难躲避。另一方面，薄积累可能会造成更多的困惑
dressed in Chapter 2 in the section on "False Breaks, Tease Breaks and
，因为价格行为在突破之前确实显示出张力，但张力太小了。那么，什么是足
Proper Breaks"; along the way, we have already seen a number of such
够的，什么又是太少的呢？
examples, the majority of which not too hard to dodge. Thin buildup,
on the other hand, may cause a little more confusion, because the price
action does show tension prior to the breakout but too little of it. But
what is enough and what is too little?
To
answer this in regard to a Ww-pattern, let us briefly recall the
为了从Ww模式的角度回答这个问题，让我们简要回顾一下旗帜与旗杆关系
concept
of harmony within the flag and flagpole relation. In some exam­
中的和谐概念。在一些关于这个主题的例子中，我们开始欣赏比例的指导作用
ples on the topic, we came to appreciate the guiding hand of proportion,
，无论是为了在突破时采取行动，还是为了推迟行动。类似的力量在Ww模式
whether
it was to warrant action on a break, or to postpone it. Similar
（如其Mm对应物）中也经常发挥作用。简单地说，小w本质上是悬挂在大W右
forces are often at work within the Ww-pattern (as in its Mm-counter­
腿上的一面旗帜。因此，当两个元素（W和w）彼此成比例时，Ww突破最适合
part).
In a simplified way, we could say that the small w is essentially a
采取行动。例如，如果大W的垂直跨度相对较宽，则较小的w也不应过于压缩
flag hanging from big Ws right leg. Therefore, the Ww-breakout is best
。那样看起来会显得“缺乏和谐”，可能无法为价格提供足够的张力以突破。如
acted on when both elements (W and w) relate proportionally to one an­
果大W在水平方向上相对拉伸，那么
other. For example, if the vertical span of a big W is relatively wide, the
smaller w should not be too compressed either. That would look rather
"non-harmonious" and may not provide sufficient tension for prices to
pop. Should the big W be rather stretched out, horizontally, then the
201
Understanding Price Adion
small w should show itself more elongated also.
A subtle example of a premature break can be spotted at point T.
Casually regarded, this breakout appeared acceptable since it took off
from a bullish signal bar with its close right up against the box barrier;
but on close inspection we can see that at that point there was only one
black bar present in the squeeze, indicating that the alternating motion
of bullish and bearish bars had not fully completed W-characteristics;
or to put it more simply, the small w was underdeveloped when mea­
sured against its bigger W neighbor.
Please understand that assessing buildup is never a matter of count­
ing bars per se, nor about striving for technical perfection. While we
may entertain some preference for one situation more than another (for
example to see at least four bars in a squeeze) , we better not limit our­
selves with strict rules on these matters.
If the break at T was premature, then how about the break above bar
10? With now two bars added (T - 1 0) , the small w had definitely fattened
up. Furthermore, before turning bullishly around, bar 1 0 had briefly
broken below bar T, which had left a false low on the chart (showing
bullish persistence) . And it was a higher low within the Ww-box. Con­
sidering also the ideal magnet of the 50-level above, just begging to be
targeted, it really would have been a waste not to take our chances on
the break of bar 10.
Granted, it is not always easy to tell a valid break from a tease break
trap. At times the line between them can be very thin indeed. Nonethe­
less, I am absolutely positive that you can train your eye to at least
recognize the breakouts of poor quality; from that pleasant base, your
feel for harmony and proportion can only progress over time.
Not long after reaching the 50-level magnet, the Asian market slid
into a slow but steady decline. The bottom barrier here may initially
have been drawn to connect the lows of 5 and 7 with the lows of 2 and
3, but after the 1 3- 1 5 element showed up, it makes sense to have plot­
ted the line as depicted.
Just like the Ww-box had set up the bull break earlier on, so did
progression 1 3- 1 5 attempt to build up to a bear break. However, there
are some major differences in both the setup and the conditions. For
202
Understanding Price Adion
理解价格行为
small w should show itself more elongated also.
小w应该表现得更为拉长。
A subtle example of a premature break can be spotted at point T.
一个微妙的早期突破例子可以在T点被发现。随意看，这个突破似乎是可以
Casually regarded, this breakout appeared acceptable since it took off
接受的，因为它是从一根收盘紧贴箱体障碍的看涨信号柱上突破的；但仔细
from a bullish signal bar with its close right up against the box barrier;
观察，我们可以看到在那个点上，挤压中只有一根黑柱，这表明看涨和看跌
but on close inspection we can see that at that point there was only one
柱的交替运动尚未完全完成W特征；或者更简单地说，当与它更大的W邻居相
black bar present in the squeeze, indicating that the alternating motion
比时，小w在测量时是未充分发展的。
of bullish and bearish bars had not fully completed W-characteristics;
or to put it more simply, the small w was underdeveloped when mea­
sured against its bigger W neighbor.
Please understand that assessing buildup is never a matter of count­
请理解，评估积累从来不是简单地计算柱数，也不是追求技术上的完美。虽
ing bars per se, nor about striving for technical perfection. While we
然我们可能会对某种情况有一定的偏好（例如希望在挤压中至少看到四根柱），
may
entertain some preference for one situation more than another (for
但我们最好不要在这些问题上限制自己以严格的规则。
example to see at least four bars in a squeeze) , we better not limit our­
selves with strict rules on these matters.
If the break at T was premature, then how about the break above bar
如果在T时的突破是过早的，那么第10根柱子上的突破又如何呢？现在增加了
10? With now two bars added (T - 1 0) , the small w had definitely fattened
两根柱子（T-10），小的W确实变得更加丰满。此外，在转向看涨之前，第10根柱
up. Furthermore, before turning bullishly around, bar 1 0 had briefly
子曾短暂跌破T柱，这在图表上留下了一个虚假的低点（显示出看涨的持续性）。
broken below bar T, which had left a false low on the chart (showing
而且这是Ww框内的一个更高的低点。考虑到上方50水平的理想吸引力，真的是不
bullish
persistence) . And it was a higher low within the Ww-box. Con­
利用第10根柱子的突破来抓住机会太可惜了。
sidering also the ideal magnet of the 50-level above, just begging to be
targeted, it really would have been a waste not to take our chances on
the break of bar 10.
Granted, it is not always easy to tell a valid break from a tease break
诚然，有时很难区分有效的突破和诱饵突破陷阱。它们之间的界限有时确实
trap.
At times the line between them can be very thin indeed. Nonethe­
非常微妙。尽管如此，我绝对相信你可以训练自己的眼睛，至少识别出质量较
less, I am absolutely positive that you can train your eye to at least
差的突破；在此基础上，你对和谐与比例的感觉只会随着时间的推移而不断进
recognize
the breakouts of poor quality; from that pleasant base, your
步。
feel for harmony and proportion can only progress over time.
Not long after reaching the 50-level magnet, the Asian market slid
在达到50级磁铁后不久，亚洲市场开始缓慢而稳定地下滑。这里的底部障碍最
into
a slow but steady decline. The bottom barrier here may initially
初可能是为了连接5和7的低点与2和3的低点而绘制的，但在13-15元素出现后，绘制
have been drawn to connect the lows of 5 and 7 with the lows of 2 and
的线条如图所示是有意义的。
3, but after the 1 3- 1 5 element showed up, it makes sense to have plot­
ted the line as depicted.
Just
like the Ww-box had set up the bull break earlier on, so did
就像Ww-box早些时候设定的牛市突破一样，13-15的进程也试图建立一个熊市
progression
1 3- 1 5 attempt to build up to a bear break. However, there
突破。然而，两个设置和条件之间存在一些重大差异。
are some major differences in both the setup and the conditions. For
202
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
example, the lows of the Ww-box were technically and very favorably
supported by the 2-3 cluster on the left. This formed higher lows along
the way and ultimately provided a base for higher prices away from sup­
port. The pre-breakout tension of 1 3- 1 5, on the other hand, showed up
unfavorably in the lows of a range. As we know, when buildup is absent
or lacking in substance, this seldom sets up favorably for continuation.
There may have been some stalling on the pattern line from 1 3 to 1 5 ,
but in terms o f buildup it all looked a bit feeble; and the 25ema wasn't
exactly helping out either (no squeeze whatsoever) . In other words, the
bear break in bar 1 5 enjoyed little technical backup, yet it had to over­
come strong support of multiple lows on the left (2 , 3, 5 and 7, take your
pick). Not surprisingly, few parties were prepared to commit themselves
on the sell side here; and it didn't take long for contrarian bulls to pick
up 6n this reluctance.
A failed breakout on one side of buildup often sets the stage for a
counterbreak at the other end; and not seldom this one comes with
better credentials attached. In fact, with combi 16 added, the 1 2 - 13- 1 415-16 progression now bore all the features of a W-pattern ready to be
completed.
Considering the bullish implications, we cannot blame a bear for
bailing out on his short on the break of combi 1 6 (reversal exit) . An even
stronger warning was sent out when bar 1 7 was broken on top, for this
was now a three-bar combi breakout, and it coincided with a pattern
line perforation to boot.
So why not trade long on the break of bar 1 7? Technically regarded,
this was not an offer of the most unsavory kind; but we cannot say the
conditions were of such favorable nature to look upon this wager as a
high-odds proposition. Here's another way to look at it: earlier on, we
saw little problem in declining the break in bar T, although the environ­
ment already spoke in favor of the bull side; why then risk capital on a
trade with arguably less buildup beneath it and facing more overhead
resistance as well (the 1 1 - 1 2 cluster) .
203
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
example, the lows of the Ww-box were technically and very favorably
例如，Ww-box的低点在技术上得到了2-3集群的非常有利支持。这一路形成了更
supported by the 2-3 cluster on the left. This formed higher lows along
高的低点，并最终为远离支撑的更高价格提供了基础。另一方面，13-15的预突
the way and ultimately provided a base for higher prices away from sup­
破张力在一个区间的低点上表现得不太有利。如我们所知，当积累缺失或缺乏
port. The pre-breakout tension of 1 3- 1 5, on the other hand, showed up
实质时，这通常不利于持续性。尽管在13到15的模式线上可能出现了一些停滞
unfavorably
in the lows of a range. As we know, when buildup is absent
，但就积累而言，整体看起来有些虚弱；而25ema也没有提供任何帮助（根本没
or lacking in substance, this seldom sets up favorably for continuation.
有挤压）。换句话说，15号的熊市突破几乎没有技术支持，但它必须克服左侧
There
may have been some stalling on the pattern line from 1 3 to 1 5 ,
多个低点（2、3、5和7，随你选择）的强支撑。不出所料，几乎没有人愿意
but in terms o f buildup it all looked a bit feeble; and the 25ema wasn't
在这里的卖方上做出承诺；而且很快，逆势的多头就注意到了这种犹豫。
exactly helping out either (no squeeze whatsoever) . In other words, the
bear break in bar 1 5 enjoyed little technical backup, yet it had to over­
come strong support of multiple lows on the left (2 , 3, 5 and 7, take your
pick). Not surprisingly, few parties were prepared to commit themselves
on the sell side here; and it didn't take long for contrarian bulls to pick
up 6n this reluctance.
A failed breakout on one side of buildup often sets the stage for a
一侧的突破失败往往为另一侧的反向突破铺平了道路；而且这种情况常常伴随着
counterbreak at the other end; and not seldom this one comes with
更好的凭证。事实上，随着组合16的加入，12-13-14-15-16的进程现在具备了一个即将
better
credentials attached. In fact, with combi 16 added, the 1 2 - 13- 1 4完成的W形态的所有特征。
15-16 progression now bore all the features of a W-pattern ready to be
completed.
Considering the bullish implications, we cannot blame a bear for
考虑到看涨的含义，我们不能责怪空头在组合16突破时选择退出（反转退出
bailing out on his short on the break of combi 1 6 (reversal exit) . An even
）。当第17根柱子被突破时，发出了更强烈的警告，因为这现在是一个三柱组
stronger warning was sent out when bar 1 7 was broken on top, for this
合突破，并且恰好与一个模式线的穿透相吻合。
was now a three-bar combi breakout, and it coincided with a pattern
line perforation to boot.
So why not trade long on the break of bar 1 7? Technically regarded,
那么，为什么不在第17根柱子突破时做多呢？从技术上看，这并不是一种最
this was not an offer of the most unsavory kind; but we cannot say the
不讨好的选择；但我们不能说条件是如此有利，以至于将这笔交易视为高赔率的
提议。换个角度来看：早些时候，我们在拒绝第T根柱子的突破时没有遇到什么
conditions were of such favorable nature to look upon this wager as a
high-odds proposition. Here's another way to look at it: earlier on, we
问题，尽管环境已经表明了看涨的一面；那么，为什么要冒险投入资本进行一笔
saw little problem in declining the break in bar T, although the environ­
在其下方的积累明显较少且面临更多上方阻力（11-12集群）的交易呢？
ment already spoke in favor of the bull side; why then risk capital on a
trade with arguably less buildup beneath it and facing more overhead
resistance as well (the 1 1 - 1 2 cluster) .
203
Understanding Price Action
www.ProRealTime. com
eur/usd 5-minute
I Fig 7.81 1 .335
1 .33
(f)ProReaITimc.com
reoo
""'00
10:00
1 1 : 00
12:00
13:00
14:00
Figure 7.8 If totally new to price action trading, the reader may have
gotten the impression that it takes a very detailed weighing of the pros
and cons to determine whether or not action is warranted. Quite the
opposite is true, really, and most certainly so on the skipping part.
Why evaluate the market's every little move under a microscope when
a quick glance would already suffice to determine that there are no
trades anywhere near. Remember, if we have to look hard for a trade, it
is probably not there. And even when the action builds up to a point of
interest, nine times out of ten we should be able to assess the situation
in the blink of an eye still.
Let's put this to the test. If we imagine to have switched on our trad­
ing platform at, say, 1 0:00, what could we have derived, in just a few
seconds of evaluation, from the hints and clues presented? 1 : A decent
bear swing from 08:00 to 09:00 had put the market in bearish mode.
2: From 09:00 to 1 0:00, bulls had found footing in the round number
level, which had stalled the bearish momentum in a sideways pattern
that now came to attack the trending 25ema. 3 : It will have taken us no
more than a few seconds also to wrap a box around this action and to
recognize the setup as a bull break trap.
It is safe to suggest that these observations could have been made
with minimal effort in the opening seconds of the bar that followed the
combi at 4, so even before the bull break had fully materialized. And it
will have taken no longer than the forming of bar 5 itself to have under ­
stood the bearish implications should this bar be broken at the bottom.
In fact, bar 5 was a textbook trade-for-failure setup (enter short below it).
204
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
www.ProRealTime. com
欧元/美元
分钟
eur/usd 55-minute
I 图Fig7.87.81 1 .335
1 .33
跳过。
可选15
121411跳过-跳过
(f)ProReaITimc.com
reoo
""'00
10:00
1 1 : 00
12:00
13:00
14:00
Figure
7.8 If totally new to price action trading, the reader may have
图7.8
如果对价格行为交易完全陌生，读者可能会产生这样的印象：要判断是否采
gotten
the impression that it takes a very detailed weighing of the pros
取行动，需要非常详细地权衡利弊。其实恰恰相反，尤其是在跳过的部分。为什
and cons to determine whether or not action is warranted. Quite the
么要在显微镜下评估市场的每一个小动作，而快速一瞥就足以判断没有交易存在
opposite is true, really, and most certainly so on the skipping part.
。记住，如果我们必须费力寻找交易，那它可能根本不存在。即使当市场的行动
Why evaluate the market's every little move under a microscope when
积累到一个值得关注的点时，十有八九我们仍然能够在眨眼之间评估情况。
a quick glance would already suffice to determine that there are no
trades anywhere near. Remember, if we have to look hard for a trade, it
is probably not there. And even when the action builds up to a point of
interest, nine times out of ten we should be able to assess the situation
in the blink of an eye still.
Let's put this to the test. If we imagine to have switched on our trad­
让我们来验证一下。如果我们想象在10:00打开交易平台，我们能在短短几秒
ing
platform at, say, 1 0:00, what could we have derived, in just a few
钟的评估中从提示和线索中得出什么？1：从08:00到09:00的一个不错的熊市下跌
seconds
of evaluation, from the hints and clues presented? 1 : A decent
使市场处于熊市模式。2：从09:00到10:00，牛市在整数关口找到了支撑，这使得
bear
swing
from 08:00 to 09:00 had put the market in bearish mode.
熊市的动能在一个横盘模式中停滞不前，现在开始攻击趋势的25ema。3：我们也
2: From 09:00 to 1 0:00, bulls had found footing in the round number
只需几秒钟就能将这个动作框起来，并将其识别为一个牛市突破陷阱。
level, which had stalled the bearish momentum in a sideways pattern
that now came to attack the trending 25ema. 3 : It will have taken us no
more than a few seconds also to wrap a box around this action and to
recognize the setup as a bull break trap.
It is safe to suggest that these observations could have been made
可以安全地说，这些观察可能是在第4根柱子之后的开头几秒钟内以最小的努
with minimal effort in the opening seconds of the bar that followed the
力做出的，因此甚至在牛市突破尚未完全形成之前。实际上，理解如果第5根柱
combi at 4, so even before the bull break had fully materialized. And it
子在底部被突破将会产生的看跌含义，所需的时间不会超过第5根柱子本身的形
will have taken no longer than the forming of bar 5 itself to have under ­
成。事实上，第5根柱子是一个教科书式的失败交易设置（在其下方做空）。
stood the bearish implications should this bar be broken at the bottom.
In fact, bar 5 was a textbook trade-for-failure setup (enter short below it).
204
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
Notice that in the evaluation of the box progression there was no
need to discuss the false low at 1 , the higher low at 3 and the fact that
the first bull attack on the 25ema had failed at 2 with a false high to
show for it. These were elements that all bore technical meaning, but
since they represented the smaller parts of a bigger total (box) , a quick
assessment of their sum more than sufficed.
Very helpful also in the analysis process is to simply tap into your
mental database of price technical patterns and see if you can match
the current action with a variant of a pattern that you have seen fail or
succeed many times before. For example, compare the bull trap above
combi 4 with the one discussed in Figure 7.6 (above 3), or with the one
in the next chart, Figure 7.9 (above 3). Indeed, these poisonous break­
outs are far from unique and they show us most evidently that lessons
can be learned from the past. To see a bullish version, check Figure 7. 1
again and the way we handled the bear break below the first dotted line
(longing it for failure above bar 5).
Soon after the bull break had fallen through, the bearish pressure
picked up its earlier pace. An interesting feature here is to see the 5-6
swing mimic the bear move that had preceded the box progression; a
fine example of the pole-flag-swing principle.
Bulls had tried to hammer in a double bottom even before the
50-level was reached (6-8) ; but this was not the time or place for bullish
bravery to pay off. However, pullbacks 6-7 and 8-9 did not set up well
for bearish purposes, either. The former was too shallow to short, the
latter lacked a proper signal bar; and there was powerbar 8 to consider
as well, which had created the double-bottom element with the low of
bar 6.
It usually doesn't take much technical savvy to question the pros­
pects of a break against a newly established trend. But how exactly do
we rate the failure potential when the trend is already well on its way?
Surely, at some point, the market will attempt to turn with better odds
attached, and maybe this could set up a reversal trade worthy of ac­
ceptance.
Here's a little rule of thumb that may prove a very handy filter in
the vast majority of trending sessions: for as long as the 25ema is still
205
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
请注意，在评估箱体进展时，无需讨论1处的虚假低点、3处的高低点，以及在2
Notice that in the evaluation of the box progression there was no
need to discuss the false low at 1 , the higher low at 3 and the fact that
处首次牛市攻击25ema失败的事实，这些都只是虚假高点。这些都是具有技术意义
the first bull attack on the 25ema had failed at 2 with a false high to
的元素，但由于它们代表了一个更大整体（箱体）的小部分，因此对它们的总和
show for it. These were elements that all bore technical meaning, but
进行快速评估就足够了。
since they represented the smaller parts of a bigger total (box) , a quick
assessment of their sum more than sufficed.
Very helpful also in the analysis process is to simply tap into your
在分析过程中，非常有帮助的是简单地利用你心中的价格技术模式数据库，
mental
database of price technical patterns and see if you can match
看看你是否能将当前的走势与之前见过的成功或失败的模式变体进行匹配。例
the current action with a variant of a pattern that you have seen fail or
如，将上面的牛市陷阱与图7.6（上面3）中讨论的牛市陷阱进行比较，或者与
succeed many times before. For example, compare the bull trap above
下一个图表图7.9（上面3）中的牛市陷阱进行比较。实际上，这些有毒的突破
combi 4 with the one discussed in Figure 7.6 (above 3), or with the one
并非独一无二，它们最明显地向我们展示了可以从过去学习的教训。要查看一
in the next chart, Figure 7.9 (above 3). Indeed, these poisonous break­
个看涨的版本，请再次查看图7.1，以及我们如何处理第一条虚线下方的熊市突
outs are far from unique and they show us most evidently that lessons
破（在第5根柱子上方做多以期失败）。
can be learned from the past. To see a bullish version, check Figure 7. 1
again and the way we handled the bear break below the first dotted line
(longing it for failure above bar 5).
Soon after the bull break had fallen through, the bearish pressure
在牛市突破刚刚跌破后，熊市压力迅速恢复了之前的节奏。这里一个有趣的
picked
up its earlier pace. An interesting feature here is to see the 5-6
特点是看到5-6的波动模仿了之前箱体进程中的熊市走势；这是极好的极杆-旗
swing mimic the bear move that had preceded the box progression; a
帜-波动原则的例子。
fine example of the pole-flag-swing principle.
Bulls had tried to hammer in a double bottom even before the
公牛在达到50水平之前就试图形成一个双底（6-8）；但这不是牛市勇气获利的时
50-level was reached (6-8) ; but this was not the time or place for bullish
机或地点。然而，6-7和8-9的回调也没有很好地为看空目的设置。前者太浅，不适合
bravery to pay off. However, pullbacks 6-7 and 8-9 did not set up well
做空，后者缺乏适当的信号柱；而且还要考虑到第8根柱子的强势，这根柱子与第6
for bearish purposes, either. The former was too shallow to short, the
根柱子的低点形成了双底元素。
latter lacked a proper signal bar; and there was powerbar 8 to consider
as well, which had created the double-bottom element with the low of
bar 6.
It usually doesn't take much technical savvy to question the pros­
通常，质疑新建立趋势的反向突破的前景并不需要太多的技术知识。但是，
pects
of a break against a newly established trend. But how exactly do
当趋势已经走得很远时，我们究竟如何评估失败的潜力呢？当然，在某个时刻，
we rate the failure potential when the trend is already well on its way?
市场会尝试以更好的赔率进行反转，也许这可以设置一个值得接受的反转交易。
Surely, at some point, the market will attempt to turn with better odds
attached, and maybe this could set up a reversal trade worthy of ac­
ceptance.
Here's a little rule of thumb that may prove a very handy filter in
这里有一个小规则，可以在绝大多数趋势交易中作为一个非常实用的过滤
the vast majority of trending sessions: for as long as the 25ema is still
器：只要25ema仍然
205
Understanding Price Action
trending, even when slowly flattening out, all wagers against its slope
are essentially off. If we translate this to the buildup situation between
1 2 :00 and 1 3:40, there should have been no discomfort in declining the
bull-side breaks offered, simply because the 25ema was still sloping
down. (Note: In a breakout situation that stems from a lengthy pull­
back, like an angular flag progression, it is not unthinkable to take
position against the current slope of the 25ema, because the extent of
the correction may have tilted the average the other way; but this is
quite different from trading breaks against a trending average.)
With bulls and bears keeping each other in check throughout the
lunch-hour doldrums ( 1 2 :00- 14: 00), the activity within the second box
slowly took on the shape of a W-pattern middle-part. The top barrier is
drawn across the highs of the lowest block, but it could also have been
plotted a few pip higher up, across the series of highs at the level of 10.
This was another good reason to be cautious regarding the buy side,
for a debatable pattern barrier is likely to keep consensus on its break
divided, and that never sits too well with follow-through.
Although rather compressed vertically, the price action within the
second box did show signs of bullish determination; in it there were
false lows, higher lows and even a three-bar combi right underneath the
top barrier ( 1 1- 1 2) . Nonetheless, both the box break entry above combi
1 2 and the pattern break pullback offer above bar 14 were easy skips,
if only for the 25ema "rule". A point of concern also was the 7-9 double
top not far to the left (potential obstruction).
When it comes to trading for failure, it is crucial to realize that a poor
break against dominance does not automatically set up a high-odds
break in the dominant direction. For example, the break below bar 13,
the first bearish bar to challenge the box breakout, failed to meet the re­
quirements of a valid short. Not only was the bull break not yet proven
false (prices still resided above the box barrier), bar 1 3 set up too tiny
to be considered a reliable signal bar for shorting purposes within the
circumstances present.
But how about bar 15? Apart from displaying persistence on the part
of the bears, this bar definitely showed more substance as a signal bar;
and a break below it would now technically confirm the failure of the
206
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
trending, even when slowly flattening out, all wagers against its slope
即使在缓慢平坦化的情况下，所有针对其斜率的赌注基本上都是无效的。如果
are
essentially off. If we translate this to the buildup situation between
我们将其转化为12:00到13:40之间的积累情况，拒绝提供的多头突破应该没有任
1 2 :00 and 1 3:40, there should have been no discomfort in declining the
何不适，因为25ema仍然是向下倾斜的。（注意：在源自较长回调的突破情况
bull-side breaks offered, simply because the 25ema was still sloping
下，比如角度旗形进程，反向当前25ema的斜率入场并非不可思议，因为回调
down. (Note: In a breakout situation that stems from a lengthy pull­
的幅度可能使得均线向另一方倾斜；但这与针对趋势均线的突破交易是完全不
back,
like an angular flag progression, it is not unthinkable to take
同的。）
position against the current slope of the 25ema, because the extent of
the correction may have tilted the average the other way; but this is
quite different from trading breaks against a trending average.)
With bulls and bears keeping each other in check throughout the
在午餐时间的沉闷时段（12:00-14:00），多头和空头相互制衡，第二个箱体
lunch-hour
doldrums ( 1 2 :00- 14: 00), the activity within the second box
内的活动慢慢呈现出W形态的中间部分。顶部障碍线画在最低区块的高点上，
slowly took on the shape of a W-pattern middle-part. The top barrier is
但也可以稍微高一些，画在10的高点系列上。这是对买方保持谨慎的另一个好
drawn across the highs of the lowest block, but it could also have been
理由，因为一个有争议的模式障碍可能会使共识在其突破时分裂，而这通常不
plotted a few pip higher up, across the series of highs at the level of 10.
利于后续的跟进。
This was another good reason to be cautious regarding the buy side,
for a debatable pattern barrier is likely to keep consensus on its break
divided, and that never sits too well with follow-through.
Although rather compressed vertically, the price action within the
尽管在垂直方向上相对压缩，但第二个箱体内的价格走势确实显示出看涨
second box did show signs of bullish determination; in it there were
的决心；其中有假低点、更高的低点，甚至在顶部障碍（11-12）下方有一个三
false lows, higher lows and even a three-bar combi right underneath the
条柱的组合。尽管如此，箱体突破组合12上方的入场信号和在14号柱上方的模
top barrier ( 1 1- 1 2) . Nonetheless, both the box break entry above combi
式突破回调信号都很容易被跳过，仅仅是因为25ema的“规则”。另一个值得关注
1 2 and the pattern break pullback offer above bar 14 were easy skips,
的点是左侧不远处的7-9双顶（潜在障碍）。
if only for the 25ema "rule". A point of concern also was the 7-9 double
top not far to the left (potential obstruction).
When it comes to trading for failure, it is crucial to realize that a poor
在交易失败时，关键是要意识到，针对主导趋势的糟糕突破并不自动设置一
break
against dominance does not automatically set up a high-odds
个高概率的主导方向突破。例如，13号柱下方的突破，作为第一个挑战箱体突
break
in the dominant direction. For example, the break below bar 13,
破的看跌柱，未能满足有效做空的要求。不仅看涨突破尚未被证明为假（价格
the first bearish bar to challenge the box breakout, failed to meet the re­
仍在箱体障碍之上），而且13号柱的设置也太小，无法在当前情况下被视为可靠
quirements of a valid short. Not only was the bull break not yet proven
的做空信号柱。
false (prices still resided above the box barrier), bar 1 3 set up too tiny
to be considered a reliable signal bar for shorting purposes within the
circumstances present.
But how about bar 15? Apart from displaying persistence on the part
那么第15根柱子呢？除了显示出空头的坚持，这根柱子确实作为信号柱显
of the bears, this bar definitely showed more substance as a signal bar;
示了更多的实质；而突破它的下方将技术上确认
and a break below it would now technically confirm the failure of the
206
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
box breakout. Should we not accept?
If we compare the break below bar 1 5 with the break below bar 5,
similarities cannot be denied; in both cases a bull break from a reversal
progression was proven false in the 25ema region. And on both breaks
an angular pullback line was taken out in the process. But there are dif­
ferences also. Personally, I am not a big fan of trading for failure when it
doesn't regard a first contrarian break against a trending 2 5ema. From
this perspective, the break below bar 5 met all the requirements of a
valid play. Subsequent wagers of this kind are not necessarily unsa­
vory, but they seldom match the quality of the preferable situation. In
the end, though, it is always a personal call, and one very much depen­
dent on the situation at hand. Hence the break below bar 15 annotated
as optional.
Wft'W.ProRealTlmB.com
eur/usd 5-minute
I Fig 7 91 .315
1 .31
. 305
' 5 00
16'00
17:00
18:00
'''00
2Q00
21:00
Figure 7.9 Contrary to popular notion, catching a ride on the high-and­
mighty supertrend can be far more challenging than, say, trading a
breakout from a well-defined range. So prominently displayed is the
dominance in the chart that it stands to attract a wide array of strate­
gies that all aim to trade the same thing (a pullback reversal), but with
highly divided consensus on the actual levels of entry. This could pro­
duce a tricky environment with traders entering all over the place and
getting trapped while at it.
A situation that certainly doesn't help to promote unanimity among
the majority is when a rally shows no hiccups on its march that could
serve as focus points for a later correction to gun for and possibly re-
207
Skipping
Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
Chapter 7
第七章
box
breakout. Should we not accept?
箱体突破的失败。我们不应该接受吗？
If we compare the break below bar 1 5 with the break below bar 5,
如果我们将第15根柱子的下破与第5根柱子的下破进行比较，不能否认相似之
similarities cannot be denied; in both cases a bull break from a reversal
处；在这两种情况下，来自反转进程的牛市突破在25ema区域被证明是虚假的。
progression
was proven false in the 25ema region. And on both breaks
而且在这两次突破中，过程中的一个角度回撤线也被突破了。但也有不同之处。
an angular pullback line was taken out in the process. But there are dif­
就个人而言，我并不是很喜欢在不涉及对趋势25ema的第一次逆向突破时进行失
ferences also. Personally, I am not a big fan of trading for failure when it
败交易。从这个角度来看，第5根柱子的下破满足了有效交易的所有要求。这种
doesn't regard a first contrarian break against a trending 2 5ema. From
后续的投注并不一定是不好的，但它们很少能匹配更可取的情况的质量。最终，
this
perspective, the break below bar 5 met all the requirements of a
这始终是个人的选择，且非常依赖于当时的情况。因此，第15根柱子的下破被标
valid
play. Subsequent wagers of this kind are not necessarily unsa­
注为可选。
vory, but they seldom match the quality of the preferable situation. In
the end, though, it is always a personal call, and one very much depen­
dent on the situation at hand. Hence the break below bar 15 annotated
as optional.
Wft'W.ProRealTlmB.com
欧元/美元
eur/usd5 分钟
5-minute
I Fig
7 91 .315
图 7.9
2
可选
可选
1 .31
. 305
' 5 00
16'00
17:00
18:00
'''00
2Q00
21:00
Figure
7.9 Contrary to popular notion, catching a ride on the high-and­
图
7.9 与流行的观点相反，搭上高高在上的超级趋势列车可能比从定义明确的
mighty supertrend can be far more challenging than, say, trading a
区间突破交易更具挑战性。图表中如此突出地显示了这种主导地位，它势必会
breakout
from a well-defined range. So prominently displayed is the
吸引各种策略，这些策略都旨在交易同一件事（回调反转），但在实际入场水
dominance
in the chart that it stands to attract a wide array of strate­
平上存在高度分歧。这可能会产生一个棘手的环境，交易者到处进入并在此
gies
that all aim to trade the same thing (a pullback reversal), but with
过程中被困住。
highly divided consensus on the actual levels of entry. This could pro­
duce a tricky environment with traders entering all over the place and
getting trapped while at it.
当反弹在其行进过程中没有出现任何可能作为稍后修正的目标并可能反转
A situation that certainly doesn't help to promote unanimity among
the
majority is when a rally shows no hiccups on its march that could
的焦点时，这种情况肯定无助于促进大多数人达成一致；这可能会让回调别
serve
as focus points for a later correction to gun for and possibly re无选择，只能在“半空中”翻滚。
207
Understanding Price Action
verse in; this may leave a pullback no choice but to roll over in "midair".
And as we can see also from the picture above, when the market is in
supertrend mode, the 25ema may have a hard time keeping up. As a
consequence of these exceptional conditions, plenty of strategies de­
signed for the "ordinary" and generally slower market may now fail to
produce dependable entry signals, leaving countless traders to ponder
on when and where to catch their ride on the bandwagon.
These worries are essentially irrelevant to a conservative break­
out trader, because he has no need for a trade. He doesn't care either
whether the market is trending or ranging, or lying dead in the water;
his sole aim is to participate in breakouts of the high-odds category and
he will lay low on all offers of the weaker kind.
Such a relaxed disposition is not exactly commonplace among as­
piring traders, particularly when confronted with a very lively market.
And even among the more experienced there are many that become so
blinded by the might of the trend that all they want for themselves is a
piece of the pie. But how should they go about it? Should they aim for
continuation in a round number level; should they pick the first turn­
around bar to come along; should they wait for a miniature hiccup in
the trend to be tested; should they trade the break of a pullback bound­
ary line?
Depending on the situation, any of these techniques could get a trad­
er in position; but since consensus on the "most sensible" course of
action is likely to be divided, trend traders and contrarians may have to
battle it out somewhat further still, and this can make for pretty bumpy
rides.
In other words, as much as we can almost be certain that a super­
trend will find some form of continuation, it remains to be seen how
well a 1 0 pip stop-or any tight stop, for that matter-would hold up if
the chosen entry is only a wee bit premature. It is up to the individual,
of course, whether he is comfortable trading this sort of environment.
Plenty of traders do love it, particularly those with a soft target in mind.
If not shaken out in the early stages of the trade, these players may be
so fortunate as to see their winners run for many, many pip on end.
Even when aiming for "just" 20 pip, entry may have been accepted
208
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
verse
in; this may leave a pullback no choice but to roll over in "midair".
正如我们也可以从上面的图片中看到的那样，当市场处于超级趋势模式时，25e
And
as we can see also from the picture above, when the market is in
ma
可能难以跟上。由于这些特殊情况，许多为“普通”和通常较慢的市场设计的
supertrend mode, the 25ema may have a hard time keeping up. As a
策略现在可能无法产生可靠的入场信号，从而让无数交易者思考何时何地才能
consequence
搭上这股潮流。of these exceptional conditions, plenty of strategies de­
signed for the "ordinary" and generally slower market may now fail to
produce dependable entry signals, leaving countless traders to ponder
on when and where to catch their ride on the bandwagon.
These
worries are essentially irrelevant to a conservative break­
这些担忧对于一个保守的突破交易者来说基本上是无关紧要的，因为他并不
out trader, because he has no need for a trade. He doesn't care either
需要进行交易。他不关心市场是趋势性还是区间性，或者是静止不动；他的唯一
whether the market is trending or ranging, or lying dead in the water;
目标是参与高概率类别的突破，并且他会对所有较弱的机会保持低调。
his sole aim is to participate in breakouts of the high-odds category and
he will lay low on all offers of the weaker kind.
这种放松的心态在有抱负的交易者中并不常见，尤其是在面对一个非常活
Such a relaxed disposition is not exactly commonplace among as­
跃的市场时。即使在更有经验的交易者中，也有许多人被趋势的强大所蒙蔽
piring traders, particularly when confronted with a very lively market.
，他们只想要一块蛋糕。但他们应该如何去做呢？他们应该瞄准一个整数关口
And even among the more experienced there are many that become so
的延续；应该选择第一个出现的反转柱；应该等待趋势中的一个小波动被测试
blinded by the might of the trend that all they want for themselves is a
；还是应该交易回调边界线的突破？
piece of the pie. But how should they go about it? Should they aim for
continuation in a round number level; should they pick the first turn­
around bar to come along; should they wait for a miniature hiccup in
the trend to be tested; should they trade the break of a pullback bound­
ary line?
Depending on the situation, any of these techniques could get a trad­
根据情况，这些技术中的任何一种都可能使交易者进入市场；但由于对“最合理”
er
in position; but since consensus on the "most sensible" course of
的行动方案的共识可能会存在分歧，趋势交易者和逆势交易者可能还需要进一步争斗
action is likely to be divided, trend traders and contrarians may have to
，这可能会导致相当颠簸的交易过程。
battle it out somewhat further still, and this can make for pretty bumpy
rides.
In other words, as much as we can almost be certain that a super­
换句话说，尽管我们几乎可以肯定超级趋势会找到某种形式的延续，但如果
trend
will find some form of continuation, it remains to be seen how
所选择的入场时机稍微提前，10点止损——或者任何紧止损——将会如何保持
well
a 1 0 pip stop-or any tight stop, for that matter-would hold up if
，仍然有待观察。当然，是否在这种环境下交易取决于个人。许多交易者确实
the chosen entry is only a wee bit premature. It is up to the individual,
喜欢这种情况，特别是那些心中有软目标的交易者。如果在交易的早期阶段没
of course, whether he is comfortable trading this sort of environment.
有被震荡出局，这些交易者可能会非常幸运，看到他们的盈利持续许多点。即
Plenty of traders do love it, particularly those with a soft target in mind.
使目标仅为“20点”，入场时机也可能是可以接受的。
If not shaken out in the early stages of the trade, these players may be
so fortunate as to see their winners run for many, many pip on end.
Even when aiming for "just" 20 pip, entry may have been accepted
208
Chapter 7
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
on the pattern break pullback offer below bar 1 , or perhaps on the sec­
ond break offer below bar 2, which now confirmed the bearish pressure
and set up from a better signal bar as well. However, the trouble with
both entries was the "poor" technical base from which they had to be
deployed and the fact that there were strong adverse magnets running
above (DO-level and 25ema).
Regardless of personal style and trading technique, there is no es­
caping the fact that any wager in the market-be it a bounce, break,
scalp, swing, range or trend trade-is always a function of weighing
the pros against the cons; in essence, of whether the prospect for profit
makes up for the danger of an unpleasant shake. That is trading in a
nutshell.
But no matter how savvy one's view on the market, and how care­
fully chosen one's trading ventures in it, shakeouts do come with the
territory, for the losses in the field are an inevitable byproduct of profit­
able trading.
That being said, there is never any need to get caught in a very con­
spicuous trap. When it comes to the occasional supertrend, hopefully it
needs little explaining that at all times a trader should not be so foolish
as to go out and defy it on account of a perception that its decline or rise
is way overextended. That can be a very dangerous practice.
In the session above, some unfortunate bulls had to learn this lesson
the hard way when they bought themselves in on the box break above
bar 3 . Beyond doubt, this was a breakout of the poisonous variety. Yet
what is poisonous to one, can taste very sweet to another (short for fail­
ure below bar 4).
209
Chapter 7
第七章
Skipping Trades and Trading Breaks for Failure
因失败而跳过交易和交易中断
on the pattern break pullback offer below bar 1 , or perhaps on the sec­
在模式突破回调的情况下，可以在第1根柱子下方进行卖出，或者在第2根柱子下
ond break offer below bar 2, which now confirmed the bearish pressure
方进行第二次突破卖出，这现在确认了看跌压力，并且从更好的信号柱中建立了
and set up from a better signal bar as well. However, the trouble with
设置。然而，这两次入场的麻烦在于它们必须从一个“差”的技术基础上进行部署
both
entries was the "poor" technical base from which they had to be
，以及在上方有强大的不利磁力（00水平和25ema）。
deployed and the fact that there were strong adverse magnets running
above (DO-level and 25ema).
Regardless of personal style and trading technique, there is no es­
无论个人风格和交易技巧如何，无法逃避的事实是，市场中的任何赌注——无
caping
the fact that any wager in the market-be it a bounce, break,
论是反弹、突破、短线、摆动、区间还是趋势交易——始终是权衡利弊的结果；
scalp, swing, range or trend trade-is always a function of weighing
本质上，是利润的前景是否弥补了不愉快震荡的危险。这就是交易的本质。
the pros against the cons; in essence, of whether the prospect for profit
makes up for the danger of an unpleasant shake. That is trading in a
nutshell.
但无论一个人对市场的看法多么精明，以及在市场中选择的交易机会多么谨慎，震
But no matter how savvy one's view on the market, and how care­
fully chosen one's trading ventures in it, shakeouts do come with the
荡都是这个领域的必然产物，因为在盈利交易中，损失是不可避免的副产品。
territory, for the losses in the field are an inevitable byproduct of profit­
able trading.
That
being said, there is never any need to get caught in a very con­
话虽如此，绝对没有必要陷入一个非常明显的陷阱。当谈到偶尔的超级趋势
spicuous
trap. When it comes to the occasional supertrend, hopefully it
时，希望不需要多加解释的是，交易者在任何时候都不应该愚蠢到因为认为其
needs
little explaining that at all times a trader should not be so foolish
下跌或上涨过度而去违抗它。这可能是一种非常危险的做法。
as to go out and defy it on account of a perception that its decline or rise
is way overextended. That can be a very dangerous practice.
In the session above, some unfortunate bulls had to learn this lesson
在上面的交易中，一些不幸的多头不得不以痛苦的方式学习这个教训，他们在
the hard way when they bought themselves in on the box break above
第3根柱子上方的箱体突破时买入。毫无疑问，这是一种有毒的突破。然而，对一
bar 3 . Beyond doubt, this was a breakout of the poisonous variety. Yet
个人来说有毒的东西，对另一个人来说可能是非常甜美的（在第4根柱子下方的失
what is poisonous to one, can taste very sweet to another (short for fail­
败）。
ure below bar 4).
209
Chapter 8
Recap Part 1
Before we go on to evaluate our studying efforts on six consecutive
months of intraday price action in Part 2 , it might be a good idea to
recap all that we have taken up so far, so as to have everything fresh
on the mind.
For this purpose, a new series of charts will be introduced, but they
will not be taken apart as extensively as before. Not unlike gauging the
current environment in an actual session, we will approach these charts
with an overview perspective first, and then dig in a little deeper on the
points of interest offered. To ease this process further, it is chosen to
use a two-page layout for each example, starting at the left page, which
will keep the charts in view at all times when reading through the text.
Upon reviewing this recap series, try not to focus too much on the
setups alone; instead, really work on reading the full picture. For each
wager is always a consequence of pressure, conditions and setup. Do
take into account as well that the suggested entry and exit techniques
are meant to reflect the conservative mode of operation as discussed
in the foregoing chapters; in any given session, there are always more
ways to take advantage of double pressure, for instance by incorporat­
ing contrarian tactics and quick in-and-out scalps.
Note: As one's understanding of price action is likely to grow over
time, so may the urge to expand the range of conservative routines with
all sorts of outings of the more aggressive variety. This is a very natural
process and can only be encouraged. However, it is strongly recom-
211
Chapter 8
第8章
Recap Part 1
回顾第一部分
在我们继续评估连续六个月的日内价格走势的学习成果之前，回顾一下我们迄今为止
Before
we go on to evaluate our studying efforts on six consecutive
所讨论的内容，可能是个好主意，以便让一切都在脑海中保持新鲜。
months
of intraday price action in Part 2 , it might be a good idea to
recap all that we have taken up so far, so as to have everything fresh
on the mind.
For this purpose, a new series of charts will be introduced, but they
为此，将引入一系列新的图表，但它们不会像之前那样被详细拆解。与在实
will not be taken apart as extensively as before. Not unlike gauging the
际交易中评估当前环境类似，我们将首先以概览的视角来处理这些图表，然后
current
environment in an actual session, we will approach these charts
再深入探讨所提供的兴趣点。为了进一步简化这个过程，选择为每个示例使用
with an overview perspective first, and then dig in a little deeper on the
双页布局，从左侧页面开始，这样在阅读文本时，图表始终保持在视野中。在
points of interest offered. To ease this process further, it is chosen to
回顾这一回顾系列时，尽量不要过于关注单独的设置；相反，真正努力去阅读
use
a two-page layout for each example, starting at the left page, which
全局图景。因为每一次下注总是压力、条件和设置的结果。请注意，建议的进
will
keep the charts in view at all times when reading through the text.
出场技巧旨在反映前面章节中讨论的保守操作模式；在任何给定的交易中，总
Upon reviewing this recap series, try not to focus too much on the
是有更多的方法可以利用双重压力，例如通过结合逆势策略和快速进出交易
setups alone; instead, really work on reading the full picture. For each
。
wager is always a consequence of pressure, conditions and setup. Do
take into account as well that the suggested entry and exit techniques
are meant to reflect the conservative mode of operation as discussed
in the foregoing chapters; in any given session, there are always more
ways to take advantage of double pressure, for instance by incorporat­
ing contrarian tactics and quick in-and-out scalps.
Note: As one's understanding of price action is likely to grow over
注意：随着人们对价格行为的理解逐渐加深，可能会越来越渴望通过各种更
time, so may the urge to expand the range of conservative routines with
激进的方式来扩大保守操作的范围。这是一个非常自然的过程，应该鼓励。但
all sorts of outings of the more aggressive variety. This is a very natural
是，强烈建议在完全适应并持续盈利地进行保守和有条不紊的交易之前，不要
process and can only be encouraged. However, it is strongly recom将任何这些额外的策略应用到攻击计划中。
211
Understanding Price Action
mended not to implement any of these additional tactics into the plan of
attack until fully comfortable, and consistently profitable, trading con­
servatively and metlwdically first.
As in all foregoing examples, the trade suggestions can be evalu­
ated by imagining the application of a rigid 20 j 1 0 bracket, but please
recall that these settings do not claim to represent the ideal target and
stop on the 5-minute eurjusd chart. In a "normally" active environ­
ment, however, this bracket will prove very effective, on both sides of
the fence, but more important than the exact type of management is to
understand why position is suggested in the first place. In this recap
series, too, all entry techniques are based on the five trade setups as
discussed in Chapter 5 and 7: the pattern break, the pattern break
pullback, the pattern break combi, the pullback reversal and the trade­
for-failure setup.
Of course, the bracket can be overruled at any time as one sees fit,
and additional wagers and alternative techniques can always be con­
sidered-but try not to let this be a function of hindsight reflection.
Studying price action-or trading itself, for that matter-is never about
how to have reaped the maximum amount of profit from a certain situ­
ation; that is a pointless goal and quite undoable in practice. The only
task of relevance, for any student trader, is to first develop an edge in
the plan of attack, so as to come out ahead in the game; once this is
accomplished, the sharpening of tactics and the honing of skills are
just a matter of experience, as is the case with any other endeavor and
profession in life.
As taken up in Chapter 6 on Manual Exits, valid bailout options are
the news report exit, the exit in resistance and the exit on a reversal
development, like the break of an M or W-pattern middle-part. The first
two should already be on the radar prior to taking position; the latter is
always a function of a price technical development adverse to the open
position (reversal exit) .
Before we dig in, allow me to again call up the list of common trading
mistakes that we came to address at an earlier stage. With now more
practice behind us, some of these errors may hardly need mentioning,
but it's good to realize that no folly is ever the sole prerogative of the
212
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
mended not to implement any of these additional tactics into the plan of
与之前的所有示例一样，交易建议可以通过想象应用一个严格的20/10区间来评估，但请记住，这些设置并不声称代表5分钟欧元/美元图表的理想目标和止损。然而，在“正常”活跃的环境中
attack until fully comfortable, and consistently profitable, trading con­
，这个区间将被证明非常有效，无论在哪一边，但比确切的管理类型更重要的是理解为什么首先提出这个仓位。在这个回顾系列中，所有入场技术都基于第5章和第7章中讨论的五种交易设
servatively
and metlwdically first.
置：模式突破、模式突破回撤、模式突破组合、回撤反转和交易失败设置。
As in all foregoing examples, the trade suggestions can be evalu­
与之前的所有示例一样，交易建议可以通过想象应用一个严格的20/10区间来
ated
by imagining the application of a rigid 20 j 1 0 bracket, but please
评估，但请记住，这些设置并不声称代表5分钟欧元/美元图表的理想目标和止
recall that these settings do not claim to represent the ideal target and
损。然而，在“正常”活跃的环境中，这个区间将被证明非常有效，无论在哪一
stop on the 5-minute eurjusd chart. In a "normally" active environ­
边，但比确切的管理类型更重要的是理解为什么首先提出这个仓位。在这个回
ment, however, this bracket will prove very effective, on both sides of
顾系列中，所有入场技术都基于第5章和第7章中讨论的五种交易设置：模式突
the
fence, but more important than the exact type of management is to
破、模式突破回撤、模式突破组合、回撤反转和交易失败设置。
understand why position is suggested in the first place. In this recap
series, too, all entry techniques are based on the five trade setups as
discussed in Chapter 5 and 7: the pattern break, the pattern break
pullback, the pattern break combi, the pullback reversal and the trade­
for-failure setup.
Of course, the bracket can be overruled at any time as one sees fit,
当然，任何时候都可以根据需要推翻这个框架，额外的投注和替代技术也可
and
additional wagers and alternative techniques can always be con­
以随时考虑，但尽量不要让这成为事后诸葛亮的功能。研究价格行为——或者
sidered-but try not to let this be a function of hindsight reflection.
说交易本身——从来不是为了从某种情况下获取最大利润；这是一个毫无意义
Studying price action-or trading itself, for that matter-is never about
的目标，在实践中几乎无法实现。任何学生交易者的唯一相关任务是首先在攻
how to have reaped the maximum amount of profit from a certain situ­
击计划中发展出一个优势，以便在游戏中获胜；一旦实现这一点，战术的提升
ation; that is a pointless goal and quite undoable in practice. The only
和技能的磨练就只是经验的问题，就像生活中任何其他事业和职业一样。
task of relevance, for any student trader, is to first develop an edge in
the plan of attack, so as to come out ahead in the game; once this is
accomplished, the sharpening of tactics and the honing of skills are
just a matter of experience, as is the case with any other endeavor and
profession in life.
As taken up in Chapter 6 on Manual Exits, valid bailout options are
在第六章关于手动退出的内容中提到，有效的撤退选项包括新闻报告退出、
the news report exit, the exit in resistance and the exit on a reversal
在阻力位退出以及在反转发展时退出，比如M或W形态中间部分的突破。前两者
development, like the break of an M or W-pattern middle-part. The first
在进入头寸之前应该已经在雷达上；后者总是与不利于开放头寸的价格技术发
two should already be on the radar prior to taking position; the latter is
展相关（反转退出）。
always a function of a price technical development adverse to the open
position (reversal exit) .
Before we dig in, allow me to again call up the list of common trading
在我们深入探讨之前，请允许我再次提及我们在早期阶段所讨论的常见交易
mistakes that we came to address at an earlier stage. With now more
错误列表。随着我们现在的实践增多，其中一些错误可能几乎无需提及，但意
practice behind us, some of these errors may hardly need mentioning,
识到没有任何愚蠢是某些人的专属特权是很重要的。
but it's good to realize that no folly is ever the sole prerogative of the
212
Chapter 8
Recap Part I
less savvy in the field. When capital and ego are at stake, even the most
experienced and stoic of traders are never fully safe from the powers of
delusion. We would do well not to think ourselves above these players.
So once again, classic trading errors are:
1 : Trading against a strong trend or an otherwise dominant pres­
sure.
2: Trading with the pressure but into resistance overhead or under­
foot.
3: Perceiving a trend to be in place when the market is actually
rangmg.
4: Choosing entries too far removed from the 2Sema, or with little
regard for the adverse round number magnet.
S: Picking entries in a frantic environment in which the majority of
bars exceed their average span.
6: Aiming to trade a reversal of a pullback that shows aggressive
powerbars or clusters within.
7: Front-running a break or turn of the market with too little buildup
to warrant such action.
And lastly, let us one more time summarize the seven most essential
price action principles in any chart. They concern:
Double pressure.
Support and resistance.
False breaks, tease breaks and proper breaks.
False highs and lows.
Pullback reversals.
Ceiling test.
Round number effect.
213
Chapter 8
第8章
Recap
Part I
回顾第一部分
less savvy in the field. When capital and ego are at stake, even the most
当资本和自尊心处于危险之中时，即使是最有经验和冷静的交易者也永远无法完
experienced and stoic of traders are never fully safe from the powers of
全摆脱幻觉的影响。我们最好不要认为自己高于这些参与者。因此，再次提醒，
delusion. We would do well not to think ourselves above these players.
经典的交易错误有：
So once again, classic trading errors are:
1 : Trading against a strong trend or an otherwise dominant pres­
1：逆着强劲趋势或占据主导地位的压力进行交易。
力。
sure.
2:在压力下进行交易，但面临上方或下方的阻力。
Trading with the pressure but into resistance overhead or under­
2:
foot.
3: 认为市场处于趋势中，而实际上市场在区间震荡。
Perceiving a trend to be in place when the market is actually
3:
rangmg.
4:选择的入场点距离25ema过远，或对不利的整数关口缺乏考虑。
Choosing entries too far removed from the 2Sema, or with little
4:
regard for the adverse round number magnet.
5:
S: 在大多数K线超过其平均波幅的混乱环境中选择入场点。
Picking entries in a frantic environment in which the majority of
bars exceed their average span.
6:
6: 旨在交易显示出强烈力量条或集群的回调反转。
Aiming to trade a reversal of a pullback that shows aggressive
powerbars or clusters within.
7:
7: 在市场的突破或转折前进行前置交易，但缺乏足够的积累以证明这种行为的合理
Front-running a break or turn of the market with too little buildup
to warrant such action.
性。
And lastly, let us one more time summarize the seven most essential
最后，让我们再一次总结任何图表中七个最基本的价格行为原则。它们涉及：
price action principles in any chart. They concern:
Double pressure.
双重压力。
Support and resistance.
支撑与阻力。
False breaks, tease breaks and proper breaks.
假突破、诱导突破和真正突破。
False highs and lows.
假高点和假低点。
Pullback
回调反转。 reversals.
Ceiling test.
天花板测试。
Round number effect.
整数效应。
213
Understanding Price Action
lFig 8.1!
IIIW.WProRealTime.com
eUf/usd 5·minute
09;00
10:00
12:00
13000
14:00
Figure 8.1 Session overview: Before trending up, prices were caught
in a choppy round number range all throughout the UK morning ses­
sion. Bears had been successful in keeping the bullish charges in check
above 1 .40, but they had shown little power below it. From the footing
of the smaller box, bulls had managed to slowly reclaim the initiative
and this had set them on their way to the next round number in line
(50-level) .
Points of interest: The break above combi 4 failed to qualify as a
pullback reversal offer of the conservative kind; prices had corrected
rather aggressively within the 3-4 retracement and there was a danger
of the adverse round number magnet kicking in ( 1 .40). If position was
accepted, a reversal exit below bar 7 will have kept the damage to a
mmnnum.
While a bull may have justifiably exited below bar 7, a bear would
have done well to lay low on the offer. This is not to say that the bearish
pressure was weak, but the conditions did not allow for a substantial
break on the sell side yet; the chart still showed higher lows on the
whole and there was the potential obstruction of the big round number
to consider as welL
Prices did sink through the number a bit, and they even fell below
the low of the nearest turnaround (combi at 4); but the more prominent
low of the morning-star on the left held up well ( 1 -2), which will surely
have helped to keep the prospects of re-conquering the round number
alive for the bulls.
In bar 8, prices broke out of what can be regarded as a W-pattern
214
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
lFig
8.1!
图 8.1
IIIW.WProRealTime.com
eUf/usd
欧元/美元5·minute
5 分钟
09;00
10:00
12:00
13000
14:00
Figure
8.1 Session overview: Before trending up, prices were caught
图8.1 会话概述：在上涨之前，价格在整个英国早盘交易中被困在一个波动的整
in a choppy round number range all throughout the UK morning ses­
数范围内。空头成功地将多头的冲击控制在1.40以上，但在其下方却显示出很少
sion. Bears had been successful in keeping the bullish charges in check
的力量。在较小区间的基础上，多头逐渐重新掌握主动权，这使他们朝着下一个
above 1 .40, but they had shown little power below it. From the footing
整数关口（50级）前进。
of the smaller box, bulls had managed to slowly reclaim the initiative
and this had set them on their way to the next round number in line
(50-level) .
Points
of interest: The break above combi 4 failed to qualify as a
关注点：突破组合4未能符合保守型的回调反转卖出信号；价格在3-4回撤中相
pullback reversal offer of the conservative kind; prices had corrected
对激烈地修正，存在不利整数关口（1.40）吸引的危险。如果接受了该头寸，7号
rather
aggressively within the 3-4 retracement and there was a danger
柱下方的反转退出将把损失控制在最低限度。
of the adverse round number magnet kicking in ( 1 .40). If position was
accepted, a reversal exit below bar 7 will have kept the damage to a
mmnnum.
While a bull may have justifiably exited below bar 7, a bear would
虽然多头可能在7号柱下方合理地退出，但空头在卖出时最好保持低调。这并不
have done well to lay low on the offer. This is not to say that the bearish
是说空头压力很弱，但条件尚未允许在卖方上进行实质性突破；图表整体上仍显
pressure was weak, but the conditions did not allow for a substantial
示出更高的低点，并且还需考虑大整数关口的潜在阻碍。
break on the sell side yet; the chart still showed higher lows on the
whole and there was the potential obstruction of the big round number
to consider as welL
Prices did sink through the number a bit, and they even fell below
价格确实在这个数字上有所下滑，甚至跌破了最近一次反转的低点（组合在4）
the
low of the nearest turnaround (combi at 4); but the more prominent
；但左侧晨星的更显著低点保持得很好（1-2），这无疑有助于保持牛市重新征服
low of the morning-star on the left held up well ( 1 -2), which will surely
整数关口的前景。
have helped to keep the prospects of re-conquering the round number
alive for the bulls.
214
In bar 8, prices broke out of what can be regarded as a W-pattern
在第8根柱子中，价格突破了可以视为W形态的区域。
Chapter 8
Recap Part I
middle-part (box) , but nothing for us to pursue. A few bars later, a pat­
tern break pullback entry was offered above bar 9, but this break, too,
could not yet boast of a top-quality label. Just look at that wall of resis­
tance within the 5-6-7 cluster, still very much in view.
Bulls did emerge victoriously from the round number skirmish, but
they had no easy time plowing through the bearish opposition.
In the absence of matching highs, it was only when bar 10 had
bounced away from the high of bar 5 that the range barrier could have
been drawn as depicted. It wasn't a very distinctive boundary by any
means, but good enough to plot and extend for futures purposes. It
could always be adjusted later on.
With prices caught between the box barrier and the 2 5ema, progres­
sion 1 1 - 1 2 bore elements of a squeeze, but it wasn't very tight. For this
reason, we can look upon the initial perforation of the barrier as a tease
break candidate, in essence a premature break (T).
Prices indeed were forced to retreat from the tease, but it was a slow­
going affair with no signs of aggression on the part of the bears. This
ultimately formed the 1 3- 14 bull-flag, which was well supported by the
1 0- 1 2 cluster on the left (technical test) . Note that throughout this cor­
rection, the trending average hadn't even flinched. Quite the contrary, it
helpfully guided the bars back out of the box.
The flag break setup at 14 was a reversed combi variant in which the
bullish powerbar came second to the inside bar; it was also a textbook
morning-star pattern, if we include the bearish bar before it (compare
with progression 1 -2).
With the bulk of obstruction now out of the way, the 50-level mag­
net, about 25 pip out, stood to reel prices in from the moment of entry.
Beyond question, this was a pattern breakout (range and flag) of the
high-odds category, and well worth the wait.
215
Chapter 8
第8章
Recap Part I
回顾第一部分
middle-part (box) , but nothing for us to pursue. A few bars later, a pat­
中间部分（框），但没有什么值得我们追求的。几根柱子后，在第9根柱子上方
tern
break pullback entry was offered above bar 9, but this break, too,
提供了一个形态突破回调的入场机会，但这个突破也尚未能自称为高质量标签
could not yet boast of a top-quality label. Just look at that wall of resis­
。看看5-6-7集群中的那堵阻力墙，依然非常明显。
tance within the 5-6-7 cluster, still very much in view.
Bulls
did emerge victoriously from the round number skirmish, but
多头确实在这一轮的冲突中胜出，但他们在穿越空头的抵抗时并没有轻松
they had no easy time plowing through the bearish opposition.
。
In the absence of matching highs, it was only when bar 10 had
在没有匹配高点的情况下，只有当第10根柱子从第5根柱子的高点反弹时，才
bounced away from the high of bar 5 that the range barrier could have
能绘制出范围障碍，如图所示。这并不是一个非常明显的边界，但足以绘制并延
been
drawn as depicted. It wasn't a very distinctive boundary by any
伸以供期货使用。它可以在以后进行调整。
means, but good enough to plot and extend for futures purposes. It
could always be adjusted later on.
With prices caught between the box barrier and the 2 5ema, progres­
价格被困在箱体障碍和25ema之间，进程11-12具有挤压的元素，但并不是很
sion 1 1 - 1 2 bore elements of a squeeze, but it wasn't very tight. For this
紧。因此，我们可以将障碍的初步穿透视为诱饵突破候选，实质上是一个过早
reason,
we can look upon the initial perforation of the barrier as a tease
的突破（T）。
break candidate, in essence a premature break (T).
Prices
indeed were forced to retreat from the tease, but it was a slow­
价格确实被迫从诱饵中撤退，但这是一场缓慢的过程，空头方面没有表现出
going
affair with no signs of aggression on the part of the bears. This
任何攻击迹象。这最终形成了13-14的多头旗帜，得到了左侧10-12集群的良好支撑
ultimately formed the 1 3- 14 bull-flag, which was well supported by the
（技术测试）。请注意，在整个修正过程中，趋势平均线甚至没有动摇。相反，
1 0- 1 2 cluster on the left (technical test) . Note that throughout this cor­
它帮助引导柱子回到箱体外。
rection, the trending average hadn't even flinched. Quite the contrary, it
helpfully guided the bars back out of the box.
The
flag break setup at 14 was a reversed combi variant in which the
在14号的旗形突破设置中，反向组合变体中，牛市强势柱是第二个出现的
bullish
powerbar came second to the inside bar; it was also a textbook
内部柱；如果我们将其前面的熊市柱也包括在内，这也是一个教科书式的晨
morning-star
pattern, if we include the bearish bar before it (compare
星形态（与进程1-2进行比较）。
with progression 1 -2).
随着大部分障碍的消除，50级磁力线大约在25个点外，随时准备在进入时
With the bulk of obstruction now out of the way, the 50-level mag­
net, about 25 pip out, stood to reel prices in from the moment of entry.
吸引价格。毫无疑问，这是一个高概率类别的模式突破（区间和旗形），值
Beyond question, this was a pattern breakout (range and flag) of the
得等待。
high-odds category, and well worth the wait.
215
Understanding Price Aaion
2
'tiMW.ProReaITime. com
eur/usd 5-minute
IFi 9 8.21- 1 ..32
Figure 8.2 Session overview: Whatever it was that caused the violent
bull spike in the UK morning ( 1 -2), it didn't take long for the situation
to correct to levels prior to the pop. Ironically, the bull spike not much
later provided the pole for a bear-flag formation whose break below bar
5 sent the market flying the other way around (pole-flag-swing) . In the
DO-level below, another bear-flag set up (6-7), but the break of it failed
to follow through. As is often seen, the flag formation then took on the
blocky features of a W-pattern middle-part (6-8), which soon served as
a stepping stone for a rather impressive bullish comeback.
Points of interest: Although no setup was provided, there were good
reasons for declining any long in the area of bar 3: the bull spike had
started from a bear low at 1 (no buildup) , had penetrated the round
number on the way up, and was most likely a news driven event (ques­
tionable dominance) ; and not unimportant either, the 2-3 correction
had shown too much aggression to set up a valid turn.
Conservative traders can ignore the bear-flag setup at 5 also (flag
barrier somewhat arbitrarily drawn) , but this situation does offer an
interesting example of how one extra bar of buildup can sometimes
swing the pendulum from skipping to accepting a break. Initially, bears
had judged combi 4 as too weak a setup for shorting purposes (no fol­
low-through on its break); but when bar 5 was added, this now set up
a three-bar combi with better odds attached (showing bearish persis­
tence).
As prices violently broke down, it was only when the collapse had
equaled the span of the bull spike (5-6 mirrors 1 -2) that the bearish
216
Understanding Price Aaion
理解价格行为
2
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eur/usd
5分钟图eur/usd
1.32
'tiMW.ProReaITime.
com
5-minute
IFi 9 8.21- 1 ..32
121.315跳过
Figure
8.2 Session overview: Whatever it was that caused the violent
图8.2
会话概述：无论是什么原因导致了英国早晨（1-2）的暴力牛市尖峰，情
bull
spike in the UK morning ( 1 -2), it didn't take long for the situation
况很快就纠正到了尖峰之前的水平。具有讽刺意味的是，牛市尖峰不久后为
to
correct to levels prior to the pop. Ironically, the bull spike not much
一个熊旗形态提供了支撑，其在第5根柱子下方的突破使市场迅速反转（支撑later provided the pole for a bear-flag formation whose break below bar
旗帜-波动）。在00级以下，另一个熊旗形态（6-7）形成，但其突破未能持续
5 sent the market flying the other way around (pole-flag-swing) . In the
。如常见的那样，旗帜形态随后呈现出W形态中间部分的块状特征（6-8），这
DO-level below, another bear-flag set up (6-7), but the break of it failed
很快成为相当令人印象深刻的牛市反弹的跳板。
to follow through. As is often seen, the flag formation then took on the
blocky features of a W-pattern middle-part (6-8), which soon served as
a stepping stone for a rather impressive bullish comeback.
Points
of interest: Although no setup was provided, there were good
关注点：尽管没有提供设置，但拒绝在3号酒吧区域进行任何长线交易的理
reasons
for declining any long in the area of bar 3: the bull spike had
由充分：牛市反弹是从1号的熊市低点开始的（没有积累），在上涨过程中穿
started from a bear low at 1 (no buildup) , had penetrated the round
透了整数关口，并且很可能是由新闻驱动的事件（可疑的主导地位）；而且
number on the way up, and was most likely a news driven event (ques­
不容忽视的是，2-3的修正显示出过于激进，无法建立有效的反转。
tionable dominance) ; and not unimportant either, the 2-3 correction
had shown too much aggression to set up a valid turn.
Conservative traders can ignore the bear-flag setup at 5 also (flag
保守的交易者也可以忽略5号的熊旗设置（旗帜障碍有些随意地划定），但
barrier
somewhat arbitrarily drawn) , but this situation does offer an
这种情况确实提供了一个有趣的例子，说明多出一根积累棒有时可以将摆锤从
interesting
example of how one extra bar of buildup can sometimes
跳过转向接受突破。最初，空头认为组合4的设置对于做空目的来说过于薄弱
swing
the pendulum from skipping to accepting a break. Initially, bears
（突破后没有跟进）；但当添加了5号棒时，这现在形成了一个三棒组合，附
had judged combi 4 as too weak a setup for shorting purposes (no fol­
加了更好的赔率（显示出熊市的持续性）。
low-through on its break); but when bar 5 was added, this now set up
a three-bar combi with better odds attached (showing bearish persis­
tence).
As prices violently broke down, it was only when the collapse had
当价格剧烈下跌时，只有当崩溃的幅度等于牛市尖峰的跨度（5-6对应1-2）
equaled the span of the bull spike (5-6 mirrors 1 -2) that the bearish
时，空头动能才会减弱。
216
Chapter 8
Recap Part I
momentum petered out. As the first brave bulls returned on the scene,
and savvy bears quickly cashed in on their windfall profits (temporary
double pressure on the buy side) , another bear-flag formed (6-7), but it
was a poisonous pattern to be traded for continuation. Of course, with
the break below bar 7 far removed from the 25ema, and with the round
number here working as an adverse magnet, this was a very easy skip
from where we stand.
When powerbar 8 flipped the flag break around, setting up the W­
middle-part as mentioned, the climate was still very bearish. Moreover,
even if the bulls would manage to position themselves firmly on top of
the 25ema again, then still the market would be ranging rather than
trending. As we know, this always calls for caution.
The otherwise attractive long above combi 9 is best declined. Maybe
a nimble scalper may have taken a shot at gathering a handful of pip
on the way up to the technical test with the low of combi 5 (a likely
magnet) , but the overall environment clearly lacked a dominant party
and that generally rules out 20 pip targets. Also, should prices have
stalled on that upside break, we can imagine the bears to have had little
trouble testing back the 1 . 3 1 round number.
As it turned out, bulls remained persistent and they even traded a
bearish mini-break at 1 0 for failure. And within the hour, they pulled
a similar trick by trading the box break for failure as well, above bar
1 1 . In a trending market, the latter offer may have been a reasonable
option to pursue, but with prices traveling in a range, and in the tricky
50-level area to boot, not to mention the technical resistance of the flag
on the left ( 1 -5), trading the break above bar 1 1 cannot be regarded as
a high-odds play.
At the end of the UK session (which is the start of the US lunch-hour
doldrums) , the break of bar 1 2 was a definite skip for three reasons at
least: (a) the bear break of the final box had not been proven false; (b)
prices resided in the danger zone of the range's highs, and (c) the bull
entry suffered high risk of the 50-level adverse magnet. A poisonous
offer indeed.
2/7
Chapter 8
第8章
Recap Part I
回顾第一部分
momentum
petered out. As the first brave bulls returned on the scene,
当第一批勇敢的多头回归市场时，聪明的空头迅速兑现了他们的丰厚利润（对买方
and savvy bears quickly cashed in on their windfall profits (temporary
的暂时双重压力），又形成了一个空头旗形（6-7），但这是一个有毒的模式，不适
double pressure on the buy side) , another bear-flag formed (6-7), but it
合继续交易。当然，突破第7根柱子时远离25ema，并且这里的整数关口作为不利的磁
was
a poisonous pattern to be traded for continuation. Of course, with
铁，这在我们所处的位置上是一个非常容易跳过的机会。
the break below bar 7 far removed from the 25ema, and with the round
number here working as an adverse magnet, this was a very easy skip
from where we stand.
When powerbar 8 flipped the flag break around, setting up the W­
当第8根强势柱翻转旗形突破，设置了如前所述的W形中间部分时，市场气
middle-part as mentioned, the climate was still very bearish. Moreover,
候依然非常看跌。此外，即使多头能够再次稳固地站在25ema之上，市场仍然
even if the bulls would manage to position themselves firmly on top of
会处于区间震荡而非趋势之中。正如我们所知，这总是需要谨慎对待。
the 25ema again, then still the market would be ranging rather than
trending. As we know, this always calls for caution.
The otherwise attractive long above combi 9 is best declined. Maybe
尽管长上方组合9看起来颇具吸引力，但最好还是拒绝它。也许灵活的短线交
a
nimble
scalper may have taken a shot at gathering a handful of pip
易者在价格上涨到组合5的技术测试时，抓住了机会，收集了一些点数，但整体
on the way up to the technical test with the low of combi 5 (a likely
环境显然缺乏主导方，这通常排除了20点目标。此外，如果价格在向上突破时停
magnet) , but the overall environment clearly lacked a dominant party
滞，我们可以想象空头在测试1.31这个整数关口时不会遇到太大困难。
and that generally rules out 20 pip targets. Also, should prices have
stalled on that upside break, we can imagine the bears to have had little
trouble testing back the 1 . 3 1 round number.
As it turned out, bulls remained persistent and they even traded a
事实证明，多头保持了坚持，他们甚至在10点交易了一个看跌的迷你突破以
bearish
mini-break at 1 0 for failure. And within the hour, they pulled
示失败。在一个小时内，他们通过在第11根柱子上交易箱体突破再次施展了类
a
similar trick by trading the box break for failure as well, above bar
似的把戏。在一个趋势市场中，后者可能是一个合理的选择，但在价格在区间
1 1 . In a trending market, the latter offer may have been a reasonable
内波动，并且在棘手的50水平区域内，更不用说左侧的旗形技术阻力（1-5），
option to pursue, but with prices traveling in a range, and in the tricky
在第11根柱子上交易突破不能被视为高概率的操作。
50-level area to boot, not to mention the technical resistance of the flag
on the left ( 1 -5), trading the break above bar 1 1 cannot be regarded as
a high-odds play.
At the end of the UK session (which is the start of the US lunch-hour
在英国交易时段结束时（这正是美国午餐时间的沉闷时段），第12根柱子的突破
doldrums) , the break of bar 1 2 was a definite skip for three reasons at
至少有三个原因可以被视为明显的跳跃：（a）最后一个箱体的熊市突破尚未被证明
least: (a) the bear break of the final box had not been proven false; (b)
是错误的；（b）价格处于区间高点的危险区域；（c）牛市入场面临50级不利吸引
prices resided in the danger zone of the range's highs, and (c) the bull
力的高风险。确实是一个有毒的提议。
entry suffered high risk of the 50-level adverse magnet. A poisonous
offer indeed.
2/7
Understanding Price Action
IFig 8.31
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eurlusd 5-minut.
89
'+.+,�T"O
skip
1395
10
1 .39
eProReefr
rne.com
16;00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
Figure 8.3 Session overview: Whenever we have a one-sided market on
our hands, all bets against dominance are basically off. A better idea,
on the whole, is to pick up a pullback reversal in the 25ema region. So
patience is required.
Points of interest: Both the bear break in bar 2 and the one below
bar 3 (three-bar combi) were reversal wagers in defiance of a very ex­
plicit trend-and arguably deployed at the worst possible moment as
well, straight into a trending 25ema. It didn't take long for these eager
bears to realize their mistake, nor for savvy bulls to start examining
their trade-for-failure options.
Depending on one.:s appetite for aggression, there were three bull
breaks offered (above the first three arrows) , the latter of which was
a textbook trade-for-failure entry. The "problem" with the first break,
above bar 4, was the fact that the horizontal line below the reversal
progression had not yet been broken back. On the other hand, a less
conservative bull could argue that the mini break below combi 2-3 was
broken back, and also that this situation bore all the makings of a regu­
lar bull-flag breakout ( 1 -4) .
The subsequent breakout (second arrow) showed persistence on the
part of the bulls, but this break, too, was still offered below the horizon­
tal barrier extension. So in strict technical terms, that did not qualify as
a textbook trade-for-failure wager either.
Even without the benefit of hindsight, we can safely state that the
third arrow depicts the superior break, for this offered an entry above
the reversal barrier extension. A cute feature here was that the bearish
218
2200
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
IFig
图8.38.31
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欧元/美元
5 分钟
eurlusd 5-minut.
89
'+.+,�T"O
skip
1395
10
1 .39
eProReefr
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16;00
18:00
19:00
20:00
21:00
Figure
8.3 Session overview: Whenever we have a one-sided market on
图8.3
会话概述：每当我们面临单边市场时，所有针对主导地位的押注基本上都是
our hands, all bets against dominance are basically off. A better idea,
无效的。总体来说，更好的主意是在25ema区域内寻找回调反转。因此，需要耐心
on
。 the whole, is to pick up a pullback reversal in the 25ema region. So
patience is required.
Points
of interest: Both the bear break in bar 2 and the one below
关注点：第2根柱子的熊市突破和第3根柱子下方的突破（三根柱子组合）都是
bar 3 (three-bar combi) were reversal wagers in defiance of a very ex­
在明确趋势的情况下进行的反转押注，且可以说是在最糟糕的时刻进行的，正好进
plicit trend-and arguably deployed at the worst possible moment as
入了一个趋势性的25ema。这些急于做空的投资者很快意识到了他们的错误，聪明
well,
straight into a trending 25ema. It didn't take long for these eager
的多头也开始审视他们的失败交易选项。
bears to realize their mistake, nor for savvy bulls to start examining
their trade-for-failure options.
Depending on one.:s appetite for aggression, there were three bull
根据个人对攻击性的胃口，有三个牛市突破（在前三个箭头上方），其中最
breaks
offered (above the first three arrows) , the latter of which was
后一个是教科书式的失败交易入场。第一个突破（在第4根柱子上方）的问题在
a textbook trade-for-failure entry. The "problem" with the first break,
于，反转进程下方的水平线尚未被突破。另一方面，较不保守的牛市交易者可以
above bar 4, was the fact that the horizontal line below the reversal
认为，组合2-3下方的迷你突破已经被突破，并且这种情况具备了常规牛市旗形突
progression had not yet been broken back. On the other hand, a less
破（1-4）的所有特征。
conservative bull could argue that the mini break below combi 2-3 was
broken back, and also that this situation bore all the makings of a regu­
lar bull-flag breakout ( 1 -4) .
The
subsequent breakout (second arrow) showed persistence on the
随后的突破（第二个箭头）显示出牛市的持续性，但这个突破同样是在水平障
part of the bulls, but this break, too, was still offered below the horizon­
碍扩展下方进行的。因此，从严格的技术角度来看，这也不符合教科书式的失败
tal barrier extension. So in strict technical terms, that did not qualify as
交易下注标准。
a textbook trade-for-failure wager either.
Even without the benefit of hindsight, we can safely state that the
即使没有事后诸葛亮，我们也可以安全地说，第三个箭头描绘了更优的突破，因
third
arrow depicts the superior break, for this offered an entry above
为这提供了在反转障碍扩展上方的入场机会。这里有一个有趣的特点是，熊市
the reversal barrier extension. A cute feature here was that the bearish
218
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Chapter 8
Recap Part I
three-bar combi 2-3 had been answered with a bullish three-bar combi,
starting at 4, and this had set up a mini inverse head-and-shoulders
variant (box). This situation serves well to highlight a most crucial
concept: where the break of a reversal pattern against dominance is
generally met with suspicion, the break of such a pattern in line with it
(in the turn of a pullback) is very often acted on with little in the way of
reservation, even when of lesser prowess.
Note: When there is a strong potential for immediate continuation,
alternative entry tactics can be considered. For instance, a bull could
have decided to overrule standard procedure by firing long not on the
break of signal bar 4, but on the first re-break of the reversal barrier
extension, should this be offered before a standard entry came to pass.
Whether or not to go this route is always a personal call. WWen straying
from the regular path, definitely preferable is to have one special condi­
tion on your side: a quick retest of the 2 5ema after entry (very common)
should not shake out the trade.
The subsequent break above bar 7 was still very much in line with
the trend, but the offer lacked the ideal features of a high-odds pullback
reversal. The signal bar was a one-bar turnaround on a second pull­
back (not necessarily a major deal-breaker) , and not far above it there
resided some blocky resistance within the 5-6 progression. Consider­
ing the bullish climate, this offer was not entirely devoid of appeal, but
probably an easy skip to the more conservatively inclined.
Prices found their way up again and not much later even built up
towards another bull break (8). Note: A continuation breakout in the
highs or lows of the market, particularly near the close of the US session
(or in lunch-hour doldrums) , can be a very tricky proposition, for such
event often lacks the volume necessary to force a substantial break. And
contrarians may counter more aggressively as well.
This is not to suggest that these breakouts are best traded for failure,
as was boldly done below bar 9; but as soon as the first signs of trouble
come forth, it is certainly no rarity to see a sharp bout of profit taking
for the night (9- 10).
2/9
Chapter 8
第8章
Recap
Part I
回顾第一部分
three-bar combi 2-3 had been answered with a bullish three-bar combi,
三条组合2-3的反转模式已经被一个看涨的三条组合所回应，起始于4，这为一个
starting at 4, and this had set up a mini inverse head-and-shoulders
迷你反向头肩形态（框）奠定了基础。这种情况很好地突显了一个至关重要的
variant (box). This situation serves well to highlight a most crucial
概念：当反转模式的突破与主导趋势相反时，通常会受到怀疑，而在主导趋势
concept: where the break of a reversal pattern against dominance is
的方向上突破这样的模式（在回调的转折点）往往会毫不犹豫地被采取，即使
generally
met with suspicion, the break of such a pattern in line with it
其威力较小。
(in the turn of a pullback) is very often acted on with little in the way of
reservation, even when of lesser prowess.
Note: When there is a strong potential for immediate continuation,
注意：当有强烈的立即延续潜力时，可以考虑替代入场策略。例如，牛市可
alternative
entry tactics can be considered. For instance, a bull could
能决定不按照标准程序，在信号条4的突破上进行长线交易，而是在反转障碍延
have
decided to overrule standard procedure by firing long not on the
伸的第一次重新突破上进行交易，前提是这一点在标准入场之前被提供。是否选
break of signal bar 4, but on the first re-break of the reversal barrier
择这种方式始终是个人的决定。当偏离常规路径时，最好有一个特殊条件在你身
extension, should this be offered before a standard entry came to pass.
边：在入场后快速回测25ema（非常常见）不应使交易被抛弃。
Whether or not to go this route is always a personal call. WWen straying
from the regular path, definitely preferable is to have one special condi­
tion on your side: a quick retest of the 2 5ema after entry (very common)
should not shake out the trade.
The
subsequent break above bar 7 was still very much in line with
第7根柱子之后的突破仍然与趋势非常一致，但这个卖盘缺乏高概率回调反
the trend, but the offer lacked the ideal features of a high-odds pullback
转的理想特征。信号柱是第二次回调上的单柱反转（不一定是重大问题），而
reversal.
The signal bar was a one-bar turnaround on a second pull­
在它不远处，5-6进程中存在一些块状阻力。考虑到看涨的气候，这个卖盘并
back
(not necessarily a major deal-breaker) , and not far above it there
非完全没有吸引力，但对于更保守的人来说，可能是一个轻松的跳过选择。
resided some blocky resistance within the 5-6 progression. Consider­
ing the bullish climate, this offer was not entirely devoid of appeal, but
probably an easy skip to the more conservatively inclined.
Prices found their way up again and not much later even built up
价格再次上涨，不久后甚至朝着另一个牛市突破（8）发展。注意：在市场
towards another bull break (8). Note: A continuation breakout in the
的高点或低点，特别是在美国交易时段结束时（或午餐时间的沉闷时段），继
highs or lows of the market, particularly near the close of the US session
续突破可能是一个非常棘手的提议，因为这样的事件往往缺乏迫使实质性突破
(or in lunch-hour doldrums) , can be a very tricky proposition, for such
所需的成交量。而且，反向交易者可能会更积极地反击。
event often lacks the volume necessary to force a substantial break. And
contrarians may counter more aggressively as well.
This is not to suggest that these breakouts are best traded for failure,
这并不是说这些突破最好是以失败的方式进行交易，正如在第9条下面大胆所做
as was boldly done below bar 9; but as soon as the first signs of trouble
的那样；但一旦出现第一丝麻烦，看到夜间（9-10）出现一波急剧的获利了结绝对
come forth, it is certainly no rarity to see a sharp bout of profit taking
不是罕见的事情。
for the night (9- 10).
2/9
Understanding Price Action
IFig 8.41
WNW.ProRealTime.com
eur/usd 5-minute
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I
4
2
eProReeiTtne.com
14:00
"
15:00
16:00
t'3 10
6
5
7
�'O'D+lO
I 9�p
6t�
�TtO'1
1 .34
1 .335
17:00
1�00
1�00
20:00
Figure 8.4 Session overview: Whenever a rally carries the supertrend
label, even a fat triple-top reversal formation (M-pattern variant 1 -7)
may have a hard time swinging prices around. The thicker the pattern
shows up, though, the more work there is to be done by trend trading
parties to undo the reversal implications. This generally means that we
cannot trade the break of such a pattern for failure on any first sign of
faltering follow-through.
Points of interest: A nimble bear may have taken his chances on
the double-bar break below 8 (basically a four-bar combi starting at
powerbar 7), if only to scalp some pip on the way down to the double
magnet of the 25ema and the round number. But this is one such wager
that we should avoid at all cost. It is best not to forget that it takes other
parties to get dur trades to target. And quite a few of them are needed to
force prices through a trending 25ema.
But there can be danger in trading with the trend as well. A very
common mistake is to let directional bias get the best of prudence. Of
course, the lessons of the market cannot be learned in a single session
and many of them may have to be repeatedly taught before they finally
sink in. But there is such a thing as an obvious trap; if only for this rea­
son, the price action student is well advised to build himself a mental
database not only of favorable conditions, but of those of the poisonous
kind as well.
With such knowledge in mind, it should not have been too hard to
dodge the bull trap above combi 9 , straight into the overhanging resis­
tance of the M-pattern block.
220
1 .345
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
Fig 8.41
I图8.4
WNW.ProRealTime.com
eur/usd 5 5-minute
欧元/美元
分钟
� �P
�l
I
4
2
eProReeiTtne.com
14:00
"
15:00
16:00
t'3 10
6
5
7
�'O'D+lO
I 9�p
6t�
�TtO'1
1 .34
1 .335
17:00
1�00
1�00
20:00
Figure
8.4 Session overview: Whenever a rally carries the supertrend
图8.4
会话概述：每当一个反弹携带超级趋势标签时，即使是一个肥厚的三重顶
label, even a fat triple-top reversal formation (M-pattern variant 1 -7)
部反转形态（M形态变体1-7）也可能很难扭转价格走势。然而，模式显示得越
may
have a hard time swinging prices around. The thicker the pattern
厚，趋势交易方需要做的工作就越多，以扭转反转的含义。这通常意味着我们
shows up, though, the more work there is to be done by trend trading
不能在任何初次出现改变跟进的迹象时交易这种模式的突破失败。
parties to undo the reversal implications. This generally means that we
cannot trade the break of such a pattern for failure on any first sign of
faltering follow-through.
Points of interest: A nimble bear may have taken his chances on
关注点：一个灵活的空头可能会在8以下的双条突破中冒险（基本上是从强势
the double-bar break below 8 (basically a four-bar combi starting at
条7开始的四条组合），如果只是为了在下跌到25ema的双重磁铁和整数位时赚取
powerbar
7), if only to scalp some pip on the way down to the double
一些点数。但这是我们应该不惜一切代价避免的一个赌注。我们最好不要忘记，
magnet
of
the 25ema and the round number. But this is one such wager
其他方需要帮助我们的交易达到目标。而且需要相当多的他们来强迫价格突破一
that we should avoid at all cost. It is best not to forget that it takes other
个趋势中的25ema。
parties to get dur trades to target. And quite a few of them are needed to
force prices through a trending 25ema.
But there can be danger in trading with the trend as well. A very
但与趋势交易也可能存在危险。一个非常常见的错误是让方向性偏见影响到谨
common mistake is to let directional bias get the best of prudence. Of
慎。当然，市场的教训无法在一次交易中学到，许多教训可能需要反复教授才能
course, the lessons of the market cannot be learned in a single session
最终领悟。但确实存在明显的陷阱；仅此原因，价格行为的学生最好建立一个心
and many of them may have to be repeatedly taught before they finally
理数据库，不仅包括有利条件，还包括那些有毒的条件。
sink in. But there is such a thing as an obvious trap; if only for this rea­
son, the price action student is well advised to build himself a mental
database not only of favorable conditions, but of those of the poisonous
kind as well.
With such knowledge in mind, it should not have been too hard to
考虑到这样的知识，躲避上方的牛市陷阱并不难，直接进入M形图案块的悬而
dodge the bull trap above combi 9 , straight into the overhanging resis­
未决的阻力。
tance of the M-pattern block.
220
1 .345
Chapter 8
Recap Part I
In several earlier discussions we took up the fact that reversal pro­
gressions of the blocky kind are harder to dig through than are their
more angular counterparts. When aiming to trade for failure, this usu­
ally means that we should wait for the market to "edge off' most of
the compactness of the obstruction first. Always welcome is to see the
blocky features of a reversal pattern transform into the angular charac­
teristics of a continuation pattern, as in a bull or bear-flag formation.
This is essentially what happened when the 9- 1 2 progression was add­
ed to the right of the reversal pattern.
Notice how the low of bar 10 matched the low of combi 9. This set
up a double-bottom element in the trending average and was about to
confirm a false break with the low of bar 3. (Imagine a horizontal barrier
from the low of 3 extended to the right.)
I
In the meantime, the angular flag line could have been plotted as de­
picted and its slope lined up perfectly with the three-bar combi 1O- 1 l .
The chart couldn't have offered a better view on the sweetspot at hand.
Of course, above this flag line there was still the overhead resistance of
the M-pattern to consider (it doesn't just evaporate) , but with the right
side of it now more angular shaped, the obstructive potential was no
longer that extensive.
If the pattern break entry above bar 1 1 was deemed a little too aggres­
sive still, bulls were offered a second instance entry just a few minutes
later, on the break of bar 1 2 . The entry on this break may have been a
few pip higher up, but that hardly mitigated the attraction of the setup:
the bullish close of signal bar 1 2 confirmed the flag breakout, and the
entry above it could boast of triple support of the flag line, the 25ema
and the round number (no adverse magnets) . And with bar 1 2 added,
the 9 - 1 2 progression harbored strong features of a W-pattern middle­
part. Better not let this one escape also.
22 1
Chapter 8
第8章
Recap
Part I
回顾第一部分
In
several earlier discussions we took up the fact that reversal pro­
在之前的几次讨论中，我们提到过块状反转进程比其更角状的对应物更难突
gressions of the blocky kind are harder to dig through than are their
破。当我们旨在交易失败时，这通常意味着我们应该等待市场首先“消除”大部分
more
angular counterparts. When aiming to trade for failure, this usu­
阻碍的紧凑性。看到反转模式的块状特征转变为延续模式的角状特征，如牛旗
ally means that we should wait for the market to "edge off' most of
或熊旗形态，始终是受欢迎的。这正是当9-12进程被添加到反转模式的右侧时发
the compactness of the obstruction first. Always welcome is to see the
生的情况。
blocky features of a reversal pattern transform into the angular charac­
teristics of a continuation pattern, as in a bull or bear-flag formation.
This is essentially what happened when the 9- 1 2 progression was add­
ed to the right of the reversal pattern.
Notice how the low of bar 10 matched the low of combi 9. This set
注意到第10根柱的低点与组合9的低点相匹配。这为趋势平均线中的双底元素设置
up
a double-bottom element in the trending average and was about to
了条件，并即将确认与第3根柱的低点的虚假突破。（想象一下，从第3根柱的低点向
confirm a false break with the low of bar 3. (Imagine a horizontal barrier
右延伸的水平障碍。）
from the low of 3 extended to the right.)
I
In the meantime, the angular flag line could have been plotted as de­
与此同时，角度旗形线可以如图所示绘制，其斜率与三根柱组合10-11完美
picted
and its slope lined up perfectly with the three-bar combi 1O- 1 l .
对齐。图表提供了对当前甜蜜点的最佳视图。当然，在这条旗形线之上，仍然
The
chart couldn't have offered a better view on the sweetspot at hand.
需要考虑M形图案的上方阻力（它并不会消失），但由于其右侧现在更具角度
Of course, above this flag line there was still the overhead resistance of
形状，阻碍潜力不再那么大。
the M-pattern to consider (it doesn't just evaporate) , but with the right
side of it now more angular shaped, the obstructive potential was no
longer that extensive.
If the pattern break entry above bar 1 1 was deemed a little too aggres­
如果认为在第11根柱上方的图案突破入场仍然有些激进，牛市在几分钟后提
sive
still, bulls were offered a second instance entry just a few minutes
供了第二次入场机会，在第12根柱突破时。尽管在这一突破时可能高出几点，但
later, on the break of bar 1 2 . The entry on this break may have been a
这并没有减弱该设置的吸引力：信号柱12的看涨收盘确认了旗形突破，而其上方
few pip higher up, but that hardly mitigated the attraction of the setup:
的入场可以自豪地拥有旗形线、25ema和整数位的三重支撑（没有不利的磁力）
the bullish close of signal bar 1 2 confirmed the flag breakout, and the
。而且随着第12根柱的加入，9-12的进展蕴含了W形图案中间部分的强大特征。最
entry above it could boast of triple support of the flag line, the 25ema
好不要让这个机会溜走。
and the round number (no adverse magnets) . And with bar 1 2 added,
the 9 - 1 2 progression harbored strong features of a W-pattern middle­
part. Better not let this one escape also.
22 1
Understanding Price Action
1Fig 8.51
...-.ProReafTime.com
eurlusd 5-minute
.oProReolTime_
05;00
06:00
01:00
09:00
10;00
Figure 8.5 Session overview: In the event of a flat Asian session, the
volume coming in on the EU Open at 08:00 is likely to break whatever
thin range is in place. In most sessions, however, it is the activity be­
tween 09 :00 and 10:00 (UK Open) that will set a more distinctive tone
for the market's direction in the hours ahead.
Points of interest:
Despite the UK Open drawing near there was
little reason to skip the flag break entry below bar 5. The flag hung har­
moniously from its pole 3-4 in a bearish looking market and the entry
was guided along by a resistive triple of the 2 5ema, the round number
and the 50 percent retracement of the 3-4 swing. But bears in position
would have done well to monitor the UK Open closely for signs of ad­
verse pressure; the blockier it showed up, the more telling its message.
As prices started to stall unpleasantly below the round number (6),
there were several ways out of the short. The first was offered in bar 7
when it broke the high of its bullish neighbor (or else a few pip higher
up, on the break of the middle-part's high). In the high of bar 7, prices
bounced in a bearish triple (ceiling test, round number and 25ema) but
we cannot say the bulls were very impressed. If still in the short, the
second option was to bail out on the break of mini bar 8; if that break
was deemed too meager, the short was a definite scratch on the break
of bar 9. And still at zero damage.
Not a good idea would have been to immediately reposition on the
bear side when bar 1 0 dipped below bar 9 (bear-flag break), so as to
trade the bull break for failure. Not only was no valid entry provided (no
bearish signal bar to short below) , there was the adverse magnet of the
222
Understanding Price Action
理解价格行为
...-.ProReafTime.com
eurlusd 5-minute
欧元/美元
5 分钟
59美元
1图
Fig8.58.51
.oProReolTime_
05;00
06:00
01:00
09:00
10;00
Figure
8.5 Session overview: In the欧盟开盘时的成交量可能会突破当前的
event of a flat Asian session, the
图8.5
会话概述：如果亚洲时段平淡，08:00
volume coming in on the EU Open at 08:00
is likely to break whatever
窄幅区间。然而，在大多数交易时段中，09:00
到 10:00（英国开盘）之间的活动将
thin
range is in place. In most sessions, however, it is the activity be­
为接下来几个小时的市场方向设定更明显的基调。
tween 09 :00 and 10:00 (UK Open) that will set a more distinctive tone
for the market's direction in the hours ahead.
Points of interest: Despite the UK Open drawing near there was
关注点：尽管英国开盘临近，但没有理由跳过在第5根柱子下方的旗形突破
little reason to skip the flag break entry below bar 5. The flag hung har­
入场。该旗形和其杆3-4在一个看跌的市场中和谐地悬挂，入场受到25ema、整数
moniously
from its pole 3-4 in a bearish looking market and the entry
关口和3-4波段的50%回撤位的阻力三重引导。但持有空头头寸的交易者应密切关
was
guided
along by a resistive triple of the 2 5ema, the round number
注英国开盘的迹象，以防出现不利压力；其表现越是块状，其信息就越明显。
and the 50 percent retracement of the 3-4 swing. But bears in position
当价格在整数关口（6）下方不幸停滞时，有几种方式可以退出空头。第一种是
would have done well to monitor the UK Open closely for signs of ad­
在第7根柱子中，当其突破其看涨邻居的高点时提供的（或者在中间部分高点突
verse
pressure; the blockier it showed up, the more telling its message.
破时再高几点）。在第7根柱子的高点，价格在一个看跌的三重阻力（天花板测
As prices started to stall unpleasantly below the round number (6),
试、整数关口和25ema）中反弹，但我们不能说多头对此印象深刻。如果仍
there were several ways out of the short. The first was offered in bar 7
然持有空头，第二个选择是在第8根小柱子突破时退出；如果该突破被认为太微
when it broke the high of its bullish neighbor (or else a few pip higher
弱，则在第9根柱子突破时空头则是绝对的平仓。并且仍然没有损失。
up, on the break of the middle-part's high). In the high of bar 7, prices
bounced in a bearish triple (ceiling test, round number and 25ema) but
we cannot say the bulls were very impressed. If still in the short, the
second option was to bail out on the break of mini bar 8; if that break
was deemed too meager, the short was a definite scratch on the break
of bar 9. And still at zero damage.
Not a good idea would have been to immediately reposition on the
立即