FINA 2322 - Derivatives 1. Introduction to Derivatives Jiaheng Yu HKU Business School 1 / 48 Today’s outline 1. This course 2. General concepts: cash flow, payoff, profit and value of a position 3. Buying and short-selling financial assets 4. What is a derivative? 5. Uses of derivatives 6. Overview and the role of the financial markets* (asterisks in this course mean “optional content”) Required readings: Section 1.1, 1.2. 1.3, 1.4 and 1.5. 2 / 48 Why study derivatives? Critical knowledge for some career paths, highly useful for others. ▶ Hedge funds and asset management ▶ Sales and trading ▶ Insurance, investment banking, commercial banking ▶ Corporate finance (CFO’s office) ▶ Central banks and regulatory agencies Ideas and models that are elegant, powerful and practical. 3 / 48 About me Jiaheng Yu (yujh@hku.hk) Joined HKU in 2023. Ph.D. Massachusetts Institute of Technology Research Interest: corporate finance, financial markets. Office hours: Thursdays 4:30-5:30pm at KK1017, or by appointment. 4 / 48 Teaching assistants Wonderful and experienced TAs Hermione Jason Check their office hours and tutorial schedules on Moodle. 5 / 48 This course Very similar contents as in the other subclasses. There should be no surprise and no arbitrage opportunity. Now, I need your help to know your knowledge backgrounds better. Occasionally after class, I invite you to write an anonymous short note on what you like and dislike about the class. Announcements, assignments, supplemental materials, etc. will be posted on Moodle. 6 / 48 Textbook The required textbook is McDonald, Robert L., 2013, Derivatives Markets, 3rd Edition. 1. Go to HKU library and sign in. https://julac.hosted.exlibrisgroup.com/primo-explore/search?vid=HKU 2. Search “Derivatives Markets” in Books+. 3. Click “See all versions”. 4. Click “Online access”. Errata for the book https: //derivatives.kellogg.northwestern.edu/errata/errata3e.html 7 / 48 Grading and requirements Class participation = 5%. ▶ Sign-ups in lectures + tutorials. ▶ Cheating in the sign-ups may lead to 0% in class participation. Problem sets = 30%. ▶ 5 problem sets in total. Each is graded on a scale of 100, and counts 6% . ▶ You can work either in groups or by yourself. ▶ Late submissions with permissible excuses will receive partial credits. Midterm = 30%, October 24 (Thursday), 7pm - 8:30pm. End-of-term test = 35%, December 6 (Friday), 2pm-4pm. Contents on slides with a * in the title will not be tested. Contents on all the other slides, in all problem sets and tutorials, may be tested. Contents on the textbook but not mentioned in slides/problem sets/tutorials will not be tested. 8 / 48 General concepts: cash flow, payoff, profit and value of a position 9 / 48 What is a position? A position is associated with a cash flow or a series of cash flows in the future. Suppose you own a stock, then you are in a stock position: you can sell the stock 10 days later and receive a positive cash flow. Suppose you borrowed some money, then you are in a debt position: you need to repay the lender in the future, and experience a negative cash flow. Payoff in this course is equivalent to the cash flow. Profit = payoff - (future value of) the cost of entering into the position. More on this in later lectures. The value of a position = how much you can sell the position to others. 10 / 48 What is a long vs. short position? In general, we say that someone has a long position in X if his payoff is positively affected by the price of X. And, .... a short position in X if ..... negatively affected ..... We can also simply say someone is long or short X. Question: does an airline company has an inherent long or short position in oil? The exact definition of a long/short position in a derivatives contract may depend on the contract itself. We’ll see this in later lectures. We will talk about how to enter into a short position soon. 11 / 48 Buying and short-selling assets 12 / 48 Transaction costs and the bid-ask spread Things to consider when you buy an asset... Suppose you want to buy shares of HSBC stock. To buy the stock, you contact a broker. First, you need to pay a commission, that is a transaction fee you pay to your broker. Second, the price at which you can buy is usually different from the price at which you can sell. Bid price: the price at which you can sell. That is the price at which the broker bids to buy. Offer price or ask price: the price at which you can buy. That is the price at which the broker offers to sell. ▶ To understand these terms, better to think from the broker’s perspective. The difference between the bid price and the offer/ask price is called the bid-ask spread. 13 / 48 Transaction costs and the bid-ask spread Where does the stock you just bought come from? Most likely, it comes from a market-maker who holds an inventory of stocks. When you want to buy, he sells you, and when you want to sell, he buys from you. He makes the market for you, by meeting your needs of trading. The bid-ask spread compensates for the market-maker’s service. 14 / 48 Orders that trigger a transaction A market order is an instruction to trade a specific quantity of the asset immediately, at the best price that is currently available. A limit order is an instruction to trade a specific quantity of the asset at a price that is not worse than a specified price. ▶ A limit order to buy 100 shares at $47.50 can be filled at $47.50 or below. A stop-loss order: if you already own some shares of a stock, you enter a stop-loss order at $45, then your order becomes a market order to sell once the price falls to $45. 15 / 48 Short selling Short-sale can be generally interpreted as the opposite of buy (or long). Example: short-selling wine You believe a wine is overpriced and expect the price to fall. In order to short-sell it, you must first obtain wine. You borrow a case from a collector and promise to return it 1 week later. Having reached agreement, you borrow the wine and then sell it at the market price. After 1 week, you acquire a replacement case on the market, then return it to the collector from whom you originally borrowed the wine. This final step is called closing or covering the short position. Day 0 Day 7 cash flows from buying wine: −S0 +S7 cash flows from short-selling wine +S0 −S7 Comment: Short-selling can be thought as borrowing money at an unknown interest rate. 16 / 48 Things that can make short-sale costly* This example is obviously simplified. We have assumed several points. It is easy to find a lender of wine. scarcity It is easy to buy, at a fair price, satisfactory wine to return to the lender: The wine you buy after 1 week is a perfect substitute for the wine you borrowed. scarcity The collector from whom you borrowed is not concerned that you will fail to return the borrowed wine. credit risk Complexities arise if these assumptions are not warranted. 17 / 48 What is a derivative? 18 / 48 What is a derivative? A derivative is a financial instrument whose value is determined by (derived from) the price of some other “underlying” assets. ▶ ... or, whose future payoffs are tied to some underlying variable. The underlying variable is usually the price of a traded asset equities currencies interest rates commodities ▶ interest rates are the largest derivatives asset class, followed by currencies but can also be a property of asset prices volatility max or min or corporate decisions default events or other things amount of rains level of dividends number of votes 19 / 48 What is a derivative? All of these variables have two essential features they are objective and observable their outcomes have economic importance Some derivatives are tied to two or more underlying variables. The basic types of derivatives are forwards futures swaps options exotics The term exoctics is an umbrella label for a broad range of derivatives that do not fit into the standard categories. Many exotics are widely traded, but some are used only rarely. In most cases exotics are variations of standard contracts, but sometimes they are unique instruments created for a special purpose. 20 / 48 Example A contract that gives the investor the right, but not the obligation, to buy 100 shares of HSBC’s stock at $70 per share in 360 days. → This is a call option. A contract that requires another investor to buy 100 EUR at 10 HKD/EUR in 20 days. → This is a currency forward or currency futures. A contract that pays the investor $1 if the Democratic party wins the 2020 presidential election, $0 otherwise. → This is an exotic option. 21 / 48 Significant notional values and the quick growth 22 / 48 How are derivatives traded? The trading of a financial asset involves at least four discrete steps. ▶ Deal: a buyer and a seller must locate each other and agree on a price. ▶ Clearing: the trade must be cleared, i.e., the obligations of each party are specified. ▶ Settling: the trade must be settled, i.e., the buyer and the seller must deliver the cash or securities necessary to satisfy their obligations in the required period of time. ▶ Record: ownership records are updated. 23 / 48 Where are derivatives traded? In two forums, exchanges and the over-the-counter (OTC) market. Exchanges are where securities have been traded for centuries. They provide a central location, either physical or electronic, where people come together to buy or sell. The over-the-counter market refers to the collection of large financial firms offering derivatives and the customers of these firms. For most derivatives, both forums are recent exchanges - began in early 1970s over-the-counter market - grew rapidly in 1980s 24 / 48 Exchange Exchanges used to be physical. Old CME trading floor: 25 / 48 Exchange Nowadays, exchanges are mostly electronic networks where trading happens. 26 / 48 Exchange vs. OTC Market Exchange activities are public and highly regulated. After a trade has taken place, a clearinghouse keeps track of the buyer’s and the seller’s obligations and payments. OTC trading is not easy to observe or measure, and is generally less regulated. All negotiations are bilateral. You do not see the prices of other dealers at a given time, while on exchange you always see the best price. Many categories of financial claims are traded more often in OTC markets than on exchanges. On exchanges, you can trade ▶ stock, commodity, futures, options. In OTC markets, you can trade ▶ everything in exchange, and bond, forward, swap, etc. 27 / 48 Summary of Exchange vs. OTC Market* Features Exchanges Market Size very large Availability global Min. Trade Size small Clientele large and small Secondary market yes Terms standardized; limited choices Transactions anonymous (buyer doesn’t know seller) Price info public Collateral standardized;rigorous Credit Risk minimal Large Trades market impact uncertain OTC very large global large large only no flexible; unlimited choices bilateral private flexible varies market impact included in price 28 / 48 800 Market size 400 Best data source for derivatives summary statistics is BIS. https://www.bis. org/statistics/ about_derivatives_ stats.htm 0 200 size of market ($trillion) 600 OTC Exchange 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 Source: Bank for International Settlements. Figure shows the total notional amounts for OTC market and value of underlying assets for exchange market. 29 / 48 The origin of derivatives* Derivatives markets have existed at least since the Middle Ages. ▶ In the 12th century, merchants at European trade fairs negotiated forward contracts for the future delivery of their goods. ▶ During Amsterdam’s tulip mania in the 1630s, these financial instruments helped protect some merchants from price swings. ▶ In the 17th century, Japan developed a forward market in rice. The origin of modern futures markets is the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) in 1848. ▶ Farmers faced uncertain price of grains because of supply and timing. ▶ A “to-arrive” contract was created that fixed the price of grains on the basis of delivery in Chicago. 30 / 48 The origin of derivatives* Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) was created in 1919 (from Egg & Butter Board started in 1989) CME and CBOT have merged to form CME Group. Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) started trading standardized call options on 16 stocks in 1973. Put options contracts started trading on CBOE in 1977. Nowadays CBOE trades options on thousands of stocks and many stock indices. 31 / 48 The uses of derivatives 32 / 48 Why are derivatives useful? Risk Management ▶ Derivatives are a tool for companies and other users to reduce risks. ▶ Used by > 94% of Fortune 500 companies for risk management. Speculation ▶ Derivatives can serve as investment vehicles. Reduce Transaction Costs ▶ Sometimes derivatives provide a lower-cost way to achieve a particular financial position. Regulatory Arbitrage ▶ It is sometimes possible to circumvent regulatory restrictions, taxes, and accounting rules by trading derivatives. Managerial Compensation ▶ Derivatives can provide incentives to managers to work harder. 33 / 48 Derivatives as a risk management tool Risk management is often about reducing risk, but it can also be about increasing attractive risks. All of the derivative strategies that can be used to reduce risk can be reversed to increase risk. The ability of derivatives to greatly increase risk can be dangerous if not properly understood and properly monitored. Rogue employees making unauthorized derivatives trades have caused major losses for some firms. Example an airline wants to hedge against changes in the price of jet fuel → use commodity forward or commodity swap an exporter wishes to protect against unfavorable exchange rate changes but still benefit for favorable changes → use currency option 34 / 48 Derivatives as a risk management tool The introduction of derivatives to a market often coincides with an increase in risks in that market. Currencies were permitted to float in 1971 when gold standard was abandoned. Currency futures started trading in 1972. OPEC’s 1973 reduction in oil supply was followed by high and volatile oil prices. US interest rates became more volatile following inflation and recessions in the 70s. Deregulation of the natural gas market began since 1978, resulting in a volatile market. Deregulation of electricity market began in the 90s. 35 / 48 1950 1970 1990 2010 (a) Date (a) 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 –0.4 –0.4 1950 1970 1990 Date (b) 2010 –0.15 –0.10 –0.15 –0.20 –0.20 1970 1990 1970 1990 Date Date (c) (c) 2010 2010 1970 1990 2010 2500 2500 2000 2000 1500 1500 1000 1000 500 500 0 1950 1950 1950 derivatives trading volume: Date 1950 1970 1990 2010 Date (b) 1947-2011 (b) 0.8 –0.2 –0.2 –0.20 2010 –4 –0.05 0.00 (millions of contracts) –0.10 –0.15 –4 0.00 0.05 –0.10 –0.05 Trading volume (millions of contracts) Trading volume 0.00 –0.05 –2 Date1990 oil prices: 1947-2011 1950 1970 2010 %Change Changeinin WTI spot price % WTI spot price % Change in dollar-pound exchange rate 0.10 0.05 0 –2 exchange ra % Change in dollar-pou rate % exchange Change in dolla Derivatives as a risk management tool nth Treasury bill rate, 1947–2011. (b) The monthly percentage e rate, 1947–2011. (c) The monthly percentage change in the oil price, 1947–2011. (d) Millions of futures contracts traded $/£ rate: 1947-2011 ade (CBT), Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME), and the New X), 1970–2011. 0 19801980 1990 1990 2000 2000 2010 2010 Date Date (d) (d) Sources: (a)(a) St. St. Louis Fed;Fed; (b) DRI and St. Fed; (c) St. (c) Louis (d)Fed; CRB(d) Yearbook. Sources: Louis (b) DRI andLouis St. Louis Fed; St.Fed; Louis CRB Yearbook. Trading volume illions of contracts) 90 7 02 Change in 3-month Change in 3-month T-bill 1.2 An Overview of Financial Markets 2500 Sources: (a) St. Louis Fed; (b) DRI and St. Louis Fed; (c) St. Louis Fed; (d) CRB Yearbook 2000 1500 1000 36 / 48 Using derivatives for speculation and investment Derivatives can serve as investment vehicles. They provide a way to make bets that are highly leveraged. Financial engineering: a structured product that combines stocks, bonds, and derivatives to achieve a certain risk-return profile. Example If you want to bet that S&P 500 stock index will be between 3500 and 3600 one year from now, you can use derivatives to make exactly that bet. “ The Big Short”: in 2006, if you believe the housing market is overheated, you can short collateralized debt obligations and buy credit default swaps to short the housing market. 37 / 48 Using derivatives to reduce transaction costs Sometimes derivatives provide a lower-cost way to achieve a financial position. Example The manager of a mutual fund may wish to sell stocks and buy bonds. Doing this entails paying transaction fees to brokers. It is possible to trade derivatives to achieve the same position, yet pay lower fees. 38 / 48 Using derivatives to exploit regulatory arbitrage It is sometimes possible to circumvent regulatory restrictions, taxes, and accounting rules by trading derivatives. Derivatives are often used to achieve the economic sale of stock, i.e., receive cash and eliminate the risk of holding the stock, while still maintaining physical possession of the stock. This transaction may allow the owner to defer taxes on the sale of the stock, or retain voting rights, without the risk of holding the stock. 39 / 48 Using derivatives for managerial compensation Sometimes derivatives provide a way to incentivize the manager. Example To provide incentives to the CEO who controls the firm, you want to compensate the CEO with out-of-the-money call options on the firm’s stock. Assume the stock price is $ 100. The call option says the CEO can buy the stock at $150 in 2 years. Then, he would work harder to push up the stock price. 40 / 48 Overview and the role of financial markets* 41 / 48 Financial markets Money Market ▶ treasury bills, certificate of deposits, commercial paper, bankers acceptance Bond Market ▶ treasury bonds and notes, municipal bonds, corporate bonds, mortgage-backed securities Equity Markets ▶ common stocks, preferred stocks Commodities Markets ▶ spot market of energy, food, metal, (bitcoins). Currency Markets Derivatives Markets 42 / 48 Cash flows among different macro sectors Funds • Mutual funds, hedge funds • Pensions, insurance companies Suppliers of capital • Households (savings) • Firms (savings) • Governments (surplus) Markets • Money market • Bonds • Equity • Commodities • Derivatives Users of capital • Firms (investment) • Governments (spending) • Households (purchases) Bank 43 / 48 The role of financial markets Intertemporal smoothing: allocation of resources over time. ▶ Bonds, stocks, and many other instruments to use. ▶ Households, firms and governments want to borrow and lend. Risk sharing: allocation of resources over different states of the world. ▶ Individual communities/families have traditionally helped each other share risks. ▶ Markets make risk-sharing more efficient. ▶ Diversifiable risks vanish (portfolio optimization, health insurance). ▶ Non-diversifiable risks are reallocated to those most willing to hold it ▶ for example, risk lovers buy stocks while risk haters buy bonds. ▶ derivatives transfer non-diversifiable risks between the two parties. 44 / 48 The role of financial markets Example: The Averages working for XYZ Co. The Averages invest their savings in mutual funds that own stocks and bonds from companies around the world. They select mutual funds that provide diversified investments. As a result, the Averages are not heavily exposed to any one company. The Averages live in an area susceptible to tornadoes and insure their home. The local insurance company reinsures tornado risk in global markets, effectively pooling the tornado risk with Japan earthquake risk and Florida hurricane risk. The Averages financed their home with a mortgage from a bank. The bank in turn sold the mortgage to other investors, freeing itself from interest rate and default risk associated with the mortgage. 45 / 48 The Role of Financial Markets Example: The Averages working for XYZ Co. The Average’s employer, XYZ Co., can access global markets to raise money. Investors in Asia, for example, may thereby finance an improvement to the Anytown factory. XYZ Co. uses global derivatives markets to protect itself against adverse currency, interest rate, and commodity price changes. By being able to manage these risks, XYZ is less likely to go into bankruptcy, and the Averages are less likely to become unemployed. 46 / 48 A final note There is a lot of vocabulary and jargon associated with derivatives ▶ long, short ▶ hedge, arbitrage ▶ leverage ▶ counterparty, broker, dealer, market maker ▶ FX, OTC, CDS,... If you don’t know the meaning of a term, please ask! Don’t let them impede your study. Learning these vocabulary is an important part of knowledge you will acquire in this course. 47 / 48 Summary Short-sale can be understood as the opposite of buy (long). Derivatives are financial instruments whose value is derived from other underlying assets. Derivatives are traded on exchange and in OTC markets. The markets are huge. Derivatives are widely used for risk management, speculation, and other purposes. Financial markets play important roles in allocating resources. Please spend one minute to write down the parts of this lecture that you are confused about (or that you enjoyed). The link: https://forms.office.com/r/EzLkQ7qrSh 48 / 48