(군복무여부 →
베트남전쟁 참전이 참전용사들의 educ atfainnent &
earnings 에 영향 ?
m m
Schooling and the Vietnam-Era GI Bill: Evidence from the Draft Lottery
Educ Attainneent
αt
=
i
Earnings
댕
o
2SLS
ε
pDraft
ligibil
tgcontrolsit
i
becond stage
veteran
< Table 3 )
Educ Att
Earmings
Vietnam
-
.
'
-
Draff
용의
lottery
( RS (N )
era
control
(yrofbrrtn )
milrtary
servc
o
elrgrbilaty through
_
tle draff
0
lotferyIu
OLs
→
2sLs
→
selectTon bras
not eiminate
IV
use
random asignment
x
.
underestrmated1 no . acurate
.
→ elTminate selectron bras.
, Draff elrgrbrirty I loftevy number dummy ( 52X )
(IV 강도강화
[주요과 )
≈
G 징병대상자
)
Grgnifrcant resulf 1postTve relatron
( Vetevan status Tucrease
( regardrng se)
⇒
무작위 선발
)
irst
-
stage
[ 군복무여부 )
o
( 958
군복무여부
RSN 인가?
Praff
Indep var :
.
RSN / 이를 기반으로 한 Draft
[ 징병자격 )
eligibility
^
많
t⑫
→
16 0
.
fp
↑
Z
.
Vretnam era
-
Particrpatron
rate
-
ostrong
correlation
4
row .
draff
.
~
i
Confrolsit
DraftElrg
+
δ
-
14 5 %
CRSN 증가할수록 effe와 점진적감
ε
veteran
status
0 145
e
Draft
prob veteran status
elrgy
이Ow RSN
α
:
elrgrbilrty effect
는
FrgureI
.
probabTity
∴ lowRSN→ high
of
.
. (rs of
R
1952
-
:
1952 :
약
0
ConSCrTp+ Ton
는
52x
lig
.
+
schouling )
332
0
-
약 0 294
.
336
s
.
유사 IU Robust
veteranstatus 가 3 edus attarnrent
유도
0 314
-
.
:
)
selectron bras
①
praft elrgrbity effet (coln에 ( 1 ) )
-
:
lefean status [ 군복무여부 )
probabilrty λ
(Table 27
⇒
:
.
.
elrgrbilrty
veteran
Dep var
7
(
(
~
확인 ⇒ reduce
평가
-
( 948
결정짓는 주요원인이
IU로서의 사용가능성
t relatron
Estrmated
2
억
.
↓
_
loftery
educ attarnment )
RSN ( draff lottery number ) → Veteran status
:
compires
용 =Wi BVitU
간주
RSN
인 →징병대상자로
O
& help to adJust
→
.
기준선이하무작위조번호설정
effe
-
ㄴ
att
.
educ attainment
+BV ui
educ
.
s
+
2
IU
x
Y
status
.
여기성의
Event study
Maternal mortality and Women's political participation
정치적참여 → 산모사망률 영향
(의회할당제
gender
Dep
.
var
(
Rato ( MM (2 )
③ MaternalMortalTty
Indep
.
var
Gender
:
.
E
참정권 )
log ) ↓
Gender qerota
qurota
opre treatment perrod
-
of womar
t
s
in
"
만족
trend
-
-
.
Dep var
MMRd
post
treatment
no
,
⑪
-
:
effect
<
coeffcrent
estrmate for
each pre
1 % 변화 →
BTrth
( t of
rate
-
:
않어Blag Quotac
+
.
in countryC
pre treatment effect
-
.
s
lag terms
post
-
treatment effect →
o
:
:
tTne -varyng covarrate
country frxed effeat
tre
,
λ
Iㆍ
Eeable 43
The
nlusionof
demographiccontrols trme poly nomral interactrons
he key frndingss
&
"
NonpresidenttalYear larger in magnrtude compared to
"s
Years of TV X PresrdentTal Year
NegatTve Tmpact of
years
-
oteurse O
perrod t
coeffcrent on rearsofTVX
s
TV
on
"
voter turnont Ts strongerduringnonpresrdentral electron
.
Robustness
.
statTstrcal
aTgnTfrcance ←demonstratesthatte varying effectsare
unickely due to random Varcatron
.
.
.
Indusion of Controls
:
adding demographic controls trmepolynomal
Tnteractrons fe ensures that the resultsare
,
,
&
,
by omTtted varTables or
trends unrelated to TV
not drTven
captures tleeffet of gender qrota
.
regrons
characterrstTc
fe
⇒
lagle 3
captures the effect of gender quota l yrs before
( logappp . c
census
(
l years before quotarnplerceatn
after tce intervention
Xer
r.
scaleof TV
tle intewentron
:
t - yeers
.
~ bf . reductron )
.
country c and
i : countires
+ Et
tstrengthensthe robustness of the results by accounting for potentral
confoundrng varrables and mprovingthe precrsron of tle estrmates
MMR
Tf the year t τs
in
.
instead ,
n
lag terus
.
TV
voter )
does not overturn
of quota Tmplementaton
Etnindato
elrgrble
observable
γ
o
trends )
α IElead = l ]
떵
( us )
유권자투표율 영향
TV →
Voter turnont
-
l
ar that equals
indcator
①ot
t Xar t ut t
e :outcone vartable LUuBor SBA )
lead teoms
Attendence
변화
13 % 변화
오의
오 me . .
BXit
fe
.
9
termratmet
treatwetbercod
DT) metnod
becoming strongerovertrne.( wtnn 10yx
Quotacead
모어 Bend
( Gquaton > Yt=α+
-
X의
%
_
stattstically signifrcant reduction
Gender quota s skilled
Frgure 37
(3 단위변화
_
MMR downwardtrend.
signifrcant decioe ( flat
with
<
φ의
→
"
Te
s
s
0
:
.
t .
partraneat
Lensuring
effect sTze grow overtine
effective n
long tern
Λ
are
representatTon
(statistrcally sTgnifrcant )
gender quotas
Implementatron of genderquota
-
→
λ
Television and Voter turnout
wopt
→
common
assumpt
i액
key in
pre
= 서 (X )
RX 100
Indep . var : Introductionand spread of
Implementation of genderquota
0
×
BX
Y의
↑
(Frgure 27
2ost
(n ( y )
*
→
o
=
→ X 의 단위 변화 →
quota
(hypothesis )
①
shareof womar inparlzament ( 5 )
Te
:
| n ( ㆍ ) = BX
*
MMR
k years
.
democracy score )
I Me yearfixedeflectI Eecdustered se at country level
broader
.
Placeborest
:
placebo
regressrons ( eg. examTning Trrelevant perrods
or
unrelated outcomes ) show
→
confrrming
te
no
srgnifTcant effect
valdtty of te observed relatrouships
from
who
Instrument
:
< Table b 7
.
"YearsofTV
while
n
Years of TV
IntTally
s
squared
,
however ,
the
'
positTvecoeffcrent
"
remains
availabilrty
&
nas
a
of TV
statTstrcally sgnifrcant
signifrcant
고
stronger negative
coeffrorent for "YearsofTVsquared
the posrtrve
,
⑥
'
effect
marginal negatrve effect of TV a
the
overtime ,
negatTve
,
,
indicated
as
* F 710
"
.
70
s
소년
marginal
negattre effectof TV tovertine
미치는 장기적인 영향
투욕
.
being incarcerated
signtfTcantly predrof tle
.
-
Instrument
uncorrelated
τs
rate should
wrth
error
term e
not be correlated wl unobserved
characterrstras
o
or
detarls
case
Ist stage
nd
2
atage
→
멸
,
[
Judge
πot π I
'
Assumptrons for an unbrased IVestrmate
Relevance
:
,
highachoolcompletron
,
=α+
tazX
없
2
,
Independence of Errors
구금여부를 판사의 경향으로설명( 개인의통성 X ) _
말
ztBatK XitGn
s
endogenerey t
- o 13 )
hrghschool completron by
Ocsextrmate(
s
ous
-
0
. 389 )
results are
13
ip
-
.
type
-
& Test
Violentoffence
.
-
var
)
incarceratron
The
difference inte impact
of Juvenile incarceratron to human
caprtas between vrolent & non - volent
of offendersncarceratron
.
Ho
.
>causalrelatronshrp명확하 설명 이
1
of
magnudethan theIUestrmate.
the true
-
oVTolentoffenser
( Incarceratroni
) tXirt εi
,2
.
Ikelybrased → overestrmat
.
√
.
:( 3
=
o
do
( Thetreatmenteffect
causal effect
due to selectron bras ( Jureniles whoare Tncarcerated may systematrcally differ
Bun
te
differ by offense type )
not
H : pnto
.
dep
.
>JuvenileTncarcerationreducesthe ikeltnood
isgreater in
offense
Bo + 3 Incarceratroni ←
,
<Table 3 ?
IVestimatecoeffrcTent(
based on
/32
=
randomly assighed되는
) outcome (ㆍ ) 에 영향 ×
Regresston model that allows treatment effect of Juvenrle
B Gitri Xi tEnt
=α
,
( Vodirecteffectofinstrument
to vary
tvi
predicted incarceratrow
adalt crime
Exogeneity
→
I randomlyasigned
sIncarceratronRaten
factors that
.
completron)
o
판사구금성향
'
s
Ψ
.
.
Juverile TncarceratTou
Judge s
'
.
Recrdivism
( 상습범 ) asan adult( E adultcrime)
③
Indep var : Juvenrle Tncarcerattion
the
with
.
⑦ Human caprtalaccumlatron (Ghrghschool
var :
incarceratron rate must
s
correlated
is
shrp
directly affect the outcones 7 > cases care randomly assrgned to judges
⇒ any varratTon Tn judge lenrency is Tndependent of tle Juvenile
Juvenile incarceration, Human capital, and future crime: evidence from randomly assigned judges
bep
'
-
trong correlation
Tn carceratron
upward carve
pRelevance -Instumet
-
confound the relatron
→
:
③ Exogenerty
concave
청소년 구금 → 교육 범죄에
Juventle
endogenrety
Rate
Incarceratron
instrument
ITkelthood of
by
s π ) + Controls t ε )
( Turnont Rof 3 , Yrsof TV + B2 of
Δ
) & omtted varrable bras &
Judge's
valid
To be
not .
endogenons varable e Judye
voterfurnout
on
are
e g
.
regressTon model
,
examThe
/
pn
.
epovtde
o
igntfaongevrdence
.e P (
HatTstcally
of
0
heterogeneousnpacts
.
.
Trade
poverty I consumption
iberalzatron s
in
멩
Ψ
IndTa
Factor immobility and regional impacts of trade liberalization: evidence on poverty from India
bep
var
.
Indep
Poverty
:
. var
,
consumption
:Traderberalzatron (
- s distrrot tarrff )
( unscaled tarrff)
I
TrTarrff
γ
not correlated wTth distrrct initral
B
Poet trfEde
Tarrffat
level of
year fe
protectzon
wiehindistrict
outcoome
( poverty
t
.
fe
Ccontroisfor
.
(controlsfor
factors that
affect Indra tine TnvarTart
-
& consumptron )
-
run
hcaledTarrffat
other
drstrrots
omTtted
⇒
endogeneity problem
o Frrststage reault τs
.
crTtical for the
<Table 3 A >
strong predictor
0
-
outoome
reverse
var
.
223 )
Crural poverty)
(ro n ( 0 )
IV coeffrcrent
.
coeffarent τ ssmaller Tn
trade
linking
trade lTberalzatron
magnTtude
(Tberakzatron
to
than the
pathways
poverty
rural
on
causalrty on
fact that
on
eral
causal
Trtariffs
.
negatrve
&
statistrcally srgnrfrcanteffet
poverty
both estrmates
robustness of the
well
poverty
-
) Te
Tmpact on scaled tarrfls (exogene더y)
between
-
reduced form & IV results show a
Both
of tarff reductrons
valrdㆍty of tle IU approack
point
in the sane
drectTon
reinforces
tω
interpretatcon & provethatntrument works
.
⑥ The main
of
ITmTtatron
:potentcalrolatronoftteexclusronrestoatzon
correlated wl unobserved
factors
.
s
>
~
relatTonshTp between the inatrument (traded
.
because t satrsfres therelevancecondtTon
Instrument
Trtarrff
(
+
scaledtariff mendogenous due to
be correlated wTthpost- reformpovertyexcepttother
and tle
indrrect channels
of
varrables
golve
.
and
stage relatronshrp
dentrfy
dstrict- level tarrffs to adjust for endogenerty&
the pure causal effect
ustng TrTarrff whtch τs strongly correlatedwithscaledrarff ( relevance ) and unlikely to
e
provrdingmore relrable
eatrmates the
IV etTmateusesthe Ist
.
fXderttI fttterortem
Reduced form
or
yearfe
α t π 1 . UnscaledTarrffat
:
causacteyand
doesne explcrtlyaccount forthestructural
Tn a specifrc listrrat compare
to
strra
endogenertyproblen
caused
using
the reduced-form
fe
o The
tarrffs
tradetarffs )
omtedvarrable bras,
form and IU result
tarrffs )
-
heterogenerty at
asa whole )
=
-
Gdrrectly
effect of trade ITberalization
distrTct level )
」
Cinstrumented
,
comparing Reduced
.
theshortrmedium
yestrmates
+
_
distrzct level
estrmate
regional exposure to trade liberalrzation
inTtsal poverty level
Related to
coeffrcrertofnterest
αt
causal
the varration in
Iberalrzatronpolicy
& addresses reverse
o
Measurement of
.
*
=
trade
etrratebras by solating
ous
_
.
Yat
the
by
poverty
IV 사용
Sstrongly correlated
Z
corrects
IV estrmate
+
.
Tarrff ( scaled Tarrff 2
o
Gcaledtarrff ( Instument (s relevan+)
To valrdate thrs
placebo test
,
assumptTon
,
influencing poverty
robustress
TrTarrffsave
.
checksikeover- Tdentifrcation
forhistocal condrtronsare
oandcontrolling
if
essentTa .
test
,