International Finance An English princess with an Egyptian boyfriend, crashes in a French tunnel, driving a German car with a Dutch engine, driven by a Belgian who was drunk on Scottish whisky, followed closely by Italian paparazzi, on Japanese motorcycles, treated by an American doctor, using Brazilian medicine. And we read it in Indian news paper. This is GLOBALIZATION… Globalization •“Globalization is shift towards not independent but interdependent and integrated economic system.” wherein the economies are brought together for trade and commerce and in this sense opening of economies by removal of Trade and investment barriers. The idea has been the whole world is conceived as “Global Village” with an objective of Global welfare and harmony among nations. Globalization of Markets Globalization of Products Globalization PROS CONS Access to New Markets Increased Competition Spread of Knowledge and Technology Exploitation of Labour and Resources Enhanced Global Cooperation and Tolerance Imbalanced Trade Promotes Economic Growth Adverse effect on domestic market Balance of Payment A systematic record of all economic transactions between the residents of two countries during a specific period of time. Presents a classified record of all receipts on account of goods exported, services rendered and capital received by residents. BoP is merely a way of listing receipts and payments in international transactions for a country. Balance of Payment A country’s balance of payments accounts keep track of both its payments to and its receipts from foreigners. Any transaction resulting in a payment to foreigners is entered in the balance of payments accounts as a debit and is given a negative (—) sign. Any transaction resulting in a receipt from foreigners is entered as a credit and is given a positive (+) sign. Balance of Payment The balance of Payment consists of two parts: The Current Account The Capital Account The current account includes the visible trade (tangible goods) & the invisible trade (services). The Balance of trade is another term used to describe the balance of only visible items – goods. The balance of trade is included in the current account. The Current Account includes : The Current Account consists of: Balance of Trade Account (Visible Trade) Plus Invisible Trade Invisible includes: Services – Tourism, Banking etc. Income – Profits, Interest and Dividends Transfers – Remittance, Donations, Gifts The Capital Account includes : The Capital Account includes: Investments – FDI & FII Loans – Sovereign and Commercial Banking Capital – FCNR accounts etc. Reserves Current Account transactions Cash ( Receipt) Item Goods Exported Services Exported Income from Foreign Investment Unilateral receipts Sub Total Deposits ( Payments) $ ( in bn) 200 100 200 100 -----600 ------ Item $ ( in bn) Goods Imported Service Imported Foreign income from investment at home Unilateral payments Sub Total 300 200 200 100 -----800 ------ Capital Account transactions Cash ( Receipt) Item Deposits ( Payments) $ ( in bn) Long Term Borrowings 200 Short Term Borrowings 100 Sale of Gold / Assets 100 -----Sub Total 400 ------ Item $( in bn) Long term Lendings Short term Lendings Purchase of Gold / Assets Sub Total 080 060 050 -----190 ------ Current & Capital Account Together Cash ( Receipt) Current Account Deposits ( Payments) Sub Total 600 Sub Total 800 Capital Account Cash ( Receipt) Deposits ( Payments) Sub Total 400 Grand Total 1000 Sub Total Errors & Omissions Grand Total 190 010 1000 Exchange Rates When individuals, businesses and governments in one country want to trade, borrow or lend in another country, they must convert their currency into the other country’s currency for the transaction. Exchange rates are important because they enable us to translate different counties’ prices into comparable terms. Exchange rates are determined in the same way as other asset prices i.e. supply and demand. Exchange Rates We get foreign currency and foreigners get Indian rupees in the foreign exchange market—the market where currency of one country is exchanged for another. The price at which one currency exchanges for another is called a foreign exchange rate. Currency depreciation is the fall in the value of the currency in terms of another currency. Currency appreciation is the rise in value of the currency in terms of another currency. Foreign Exchange Market Kindelberg – Foreign exchange market is a place where foreign money is bought and sold. Features of Foreign Exchange Market a) Electronic Market b) Transfer of Purchasing Power c) Intermediaries d) Geographical dispersion e) Volume f) Credit provision g) Minimizing risk Foreign Exchange Market TYPES OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET SPOT MARKET FORWARD MARKET FUNCTIONS OF FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET TRANSFER CREDIT HEDGING International Trade Items involved in International trade are a) Merchandise or Goods (commodity or brands) b) Services c) Investments d) Technologies etc. International Investments Theory of International Investments indicate that firms particularly MNC’s integrate their competitive advantages with needs of foreign countries to optimize returns. It is carried out in two forms : Foreign Direct Investment Foreign Portfolio Investment • Foreign Direct Investments • Firms carry capital to countries abroad through their subsidiaries or corporate units to control income-generating assets (by acquiring more than 10% equity). • It may create new physical facilities or acquire existing ones to operate. • For example, Daimler Benz has set up automobile manufacturing unit in Pune through 100% FDI; Vodafone acquired Hutch etc. • Generally, FDI are long-term in nature undertaken by Individuals, institutions or business enterprises. •Generally when a company wants to have more control over decision making in a host country’s operations, it prefers FDI. Foreign Portfolio Investments • When firms or individuals use capital in foreign nations to earn return without concern about control on use of capital, it is called FPI (generally, equity acquired is less than 10%). • For example, Morgan Stanley, a mutual fund from US acquires 10000 shares of say Infosys or ITC in Mumbai. • FPI generally enters host countries through Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) • Foreign currency Convertible Bonds like GDR’s, ADR’s etc • Investment by NRI’s into Indian companies without concern for control. The Gold Standard: A Fixed Exchange Rate System Between 1867 and 1933, most of the world’s economies used the gold standard. Gold standard – a system of fixed exchange rates in which the value of currencies was fixed relative to the value of gold and gold was used as the primary reserve asset. The Gold Standard: A Fixed Exchange Rate System Under the gold standard, the amount of money a country issued was directly tied to gold. By fixing its currency’s price to gold, it automatically fixed its currency’s price to other currencies. Gold flowed out of the country when it experienced a balance of payments deficit and into the country with a balance of payments surplus. With the outbreak of World War 1, the gold standards system came to an end. Physical transfer of gold started becoming a problem. Even a very small piece of gold had its own value. Scarcity of gold fuelled the problems and most of the nations discarded the Gold Standards. Bretton Woods (1944 - 1973) 44 countries met at Bretton Woods, US to design a new system in 1944 Established: International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank IMF: maintain order in monetary system GATT : Reduction in tariff World Bank: promote general economic development Fixed exchange rates pegged to the US Dollar US Dollar pegged to gold at $35 per ounce Countries maintained their currencies ± 1% of the fixed rate; buy/sell own currency to maintain level By the early 1970s, the number of U.S. dollars held by foreigners exceeded the amount of U.S. gold. When France and other countries demanded gold for their dollars, the U.S. ended its policy of exchanging gold for dollars in 1971. With that change, the Bretton Woods system was dead. International Monetary Fund ( IMF ) Established on 27th December 1945 and began financial operations on March 1,1947 Result of Bretton –Woods Conference of nations Open to every country that controls its foreign relations and is able and prepared to fulfill the obligations of membership. Membership is prerequisite for membership in the World Bank (IBRD) In 2020, IMF had a membership of 190 countries. India is one of the founder members of IMF and World Bank IMF RESOURCES At the April 2, 2009 G-20 summit, world leaders pledged to support growth in emerging market and developing countries by boosting the IMF's lending resources to $750 billion. The IMF’s resources are provided by its member countries, primarily through payment of quotas, which broadly reflect each country’s economic size. A member’s quota is determined by its economic weight in the global economy. A member’s quota determines its voting power and size of loan it can borrow PURPOSES Monitors economic and financial developments and policies – gives policy advice Lends to member countries with BoP problems Provides governments and Central Banks of member countries with technical assistance and training in its areas of expertise. World Trade Organization: History Mid-1940s: Meeting in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire, Created IMF and World Bank US tried to create ITO = International Trade Organization Interim agreement: GATT = General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade When ITO failed to be approved (by US!), GATT governed trade policy by default World Trade Organization: History What GATT (and WTO) Does Rules for trade policy Forum for negotiation Of both trade policies (tariffs) and rules Negotiations take place in “Negotiating Rounds” Decisions made at occasional meetings of trade ministers: “Ministerial Meetings” Born in 1995, but not so young The WTO began life on 1 January 1995, but its trading system is half a century older. Since 1948, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) had provided the rules for the system. It did not take long for the General Agreement to give birth to an unofficial, de facto international organization, also known informally as GATT. Over the years GATT evolved through several rounds of negotiations. The last and largest GATT round, was the Uruguay Round which lasted from 1986 to 1994 and led to the WTO’s creation. Whereas GATT had mainly dealt with trade in goods, the WTO and its agreements now cover trade in services, and in traded inventions, creations and designs (intellectual property). World Trade Organization: Rounds Rounds of GATT Multilateral Trade Negotiations No. Years Name Accomplishments 1-5 1947-61 6 1964-67 Kennedy Tariffs + anti-dumping 7 1973-79 Tokyo Tariffs + NTBs 8 1986-94 Uruguay Tariffs, NTBs, Services, Intellectual Property, Textiles, Ag., Dispute Settlement, Created WTO 9 2001-? Doha ? (Doha Development Agenda) Reduced tariffs WTO Principles Non-Discrimination (MFN treatment) Freer trade, predictable policies, encouraging competition Extra provisions for LDCs. The different divisions of the World bank One group - Five agencies IBRD (The International Bank For Reconstruction and Development): provides loans and development assistance to middle-income countries IDA (International Development Agency): Interest free loans and grants to poorest countries IFC (International Finance Corporation): Financing private sector investments and technical assistance to governments and business MIGA (Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency): Provides guarantees to foreign investors – also technical assistance to help developing countries promote investment ICSID (International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes) Exchange Rates An exchange rate can be quoted in two ways: Direct quote: The price of the foreign currency in terms of domestic currency. Example: Rs. 46.350 per $. Indirect quote: The price of domestic currency in terms of the foreign currency. Example: $ 0.02158 per rupee. Spot and Forward Markets Spot markets: market for immediate delivery of currency. Forward contract: an agreement between two parties in which one party agrees to buy currency from the other party at a later date at an exchange rate agreed upon today. No central marketplace. Risk in forward markets. Appreciation and Depreciation of Currencies Appreciation of a currency is the increase in its value in terms of another currency. When Indian rupee in dollar terms appreciate, the dollar would depreciate. If the value of Indian rupee in terms of US $ falls, the Indian rupee is said to depreciate. Floating and Fixed Exchange Rate System Since exchange rate is a price, its determination can be explained by demand for and supply of currencies. The system of exchange rate where the value of a currency is allowed to adjust freely as determined by demand for and supply of foreign exchange is called flexible exchange rate system. If the exchange rate instead of being determined by demand and supply is fixed by the govt., it is called fixed exchange rate system. The Equilibrium of Exchange Rate The equilibrium rate is equal to OR. At a higher price OR’ the qty. supplied exceeds the demand. Exchange rate will fall again to OR If the rate is lower i.e. OR” there is excess demand, pushing the price to OR Y S D Price of Dollar Excess Supply R’ 44 R 42.50 R” 40 Excess Demand D S O Q Quantity of Dollars X Changes in Exchange Rate We have assumed that the underlying forces which determines demand and supply of forex remains constant. The equilibrium in the forex market will be disturbed if some changes occurs in the underlying factors. If the income of American increases, it increase the demand for imported goods and services This will increase the supply of dollar and affect the equilibrium rate. Changes in Exchange Rate Price of Dollar D’ Y D R 42.50 R’ 40 The supply curve SS would shift to right to S’S’. This increase in supply of dollar will lower the price of dollar from rupees OR (Rs 42.50) to OR’ (Rs 40) Increase in imports by US from India will cause the dollar to depreciate and Indian rupee to appreciate. S S’ E F D’ S D S’ O Q Q’ Quantity of Dollars X Changes in Exchange Rate Due to increase in income of Indians causing a rise in demand for American goods, or Picking up of industrial activity in India requiring import of materials, machine, equipment and other capital goods from US. This will increase the demand for dollar thus demand curve for dollar would shift to the right from DD to D’D’. Changes in Exchange Rate This will upset the initial equilibrium at price OR (Rs 42.50) There will emerge excess demand for dollar which will push the price of dollar to OR” (Rs. 44) And the amount of dollar spent by Indian on imports increases to Q”. Changes in Exchange Rate D’ Price of Dollar Y R” R S D G 44 E 42.50 D’ S D S’ O Q Q” Quantity of Dollars X
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