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Decision Analysis
for Management
Judgment
Third Edition
Paul Goodwin
The Management School, University of Bath
George Wright
Durham Business School, University of Durham
John Wiley &. Sons, Ltd
Contents
Foreword
Preface
Chapter 1
Chapter 2
Lawrence D. Phillips
Introduction
How people make decisions involving
multiple objectives
Chapter 3 Decisions involving multiple objectives:
SMART
Chapter 4 Introduction to probability
Chapter 5 Decision making under uncertainty
Chapter 6 Decision trees and influence diagrams
Chapter 7 Applying simulation to decision problems
Chapter 8 Revising judgments in the light of new
information
Chapter 9 Biases in probability assessment
Chapter 10 Methods for eliciting probabilities
Chapter 11 Risk and uncertainty management
Chapter 12 Decisions involving groups of individuals
Chapter 13 Resource allocation and negotiation
problems
Chapter 14 Decision framing and cognitive inertia
Chapter 15 Scenario planning: an alternative way of
dealing with uncertainty
ix
xi
1
15
27
71
95
143
179
215
247
277
297
309
329
355
377
VIII
Chapter 16 The analytic hierarchy process
Chapter 17 Alternative decision-support systems
Suggested answers to selected questions
Index
Contents
413
427
463
471